Ukraine

[pecunia]

There was another mysterious death of a high level crony. And I've seen articles reporting that there's criticism of Putin within Russia for opening a giant ferris wheel while their army was getting their assk kicked in Ukraine.

Anyone else think of "Nero fiddles while Rome burns"? I expect that we're watching the downfall of Putin. May he fall hard.

I wonder if he will have the sense to vacate the country before they come for him with the pitchforks.  However, it seems like he doesn't have too many places he could go to.

[markbike528CBX]

There was another mysterious death of a high level crony. And I've seen articles reporting that there's criticism of Putin within Russia for opening a giant ferris wheel while their army was getting their assk kicked in Ukraine.

Anyone else think of "Nero fiddles while Rome burns"? I expect that we're watching the downfall of Putin. May he fall hard.

Agree on the sentiments.

However I’d like to remind everyone that Czar Nicholas II, who was on nobody’s list as the sharpest tool in the shed, survived losing a war to the then 3d world Japan.  He then made it 2/3ds the way through WWI.

Stalin survived failing terribly in 1941 , although that was a clear defensive war at that point.

Hitler had to take himself out in the bunker, with the Soviets just blocks away.

[Just Joe]

But could Putin retire without consequences or will they come after him for something such as treason?

[sixwings]

People like Putin don't just retire...

[BicycleB]

But could Putin retire without consequences or will they come after him for something such as treason?

What I hear is that he has enemies within Russia, people whose families want revenge from previous actions of his, and his life would likely be very short if he fell from power. No need for pesky courts.

[Dancin'Dog]

Maybe Trump can offer him some advice. 

[jinga nation]

But could Putin retire without consequences or will they come after him for something such as treason?

What I hear is that he has enemies within Russia, people whose families want revenge from previous actions of his, and his life would likely be very short if he fell from power. No need for pesky courts.

maybe he will fall from hospital window. tragic accident it will be.

[Travis]

One of the neat things about liberating 8000 sq km of your homeland in a five day blitz. People live there. Like your mother.

https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/1569777597197815808

[lemanfan]

The failings of the Russian army have started to create a power vacuum in central Asia, It has been said.  People are less afraid of the Russians. And just the past few days, new fighting have erupted between Azerbaijan (Muslim, supported by Turkey) and Armenia (Christian, supported by Russia).

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/armenias-pm-says-49-soldiers-died-in-clashes-with-azerbaijan.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis

[zolotiyeruki]

But could Putin retire without consequences or will they come after him for something such as treason?

It would be *very* difficult.  Russia is basically a mafia state.  Once you're involved in the power structure, you don't get out.

All those oligarchs falling out of windows and off boats?  They have families.  And there are other oligarchs who would prefer not to fall out of a window in the future.  Plenty of motive to ensure that Putin can't make a comeback.

[GuitarStv]

But could Putin retire without consequences or will they come after him for something such as treason?

It would be *very* difficult.  Russia is basically a mafia state.  Once you're involved in the power structure, you don't get out.

All those oligarchs falling out of windows and off boats?  They have families.  And there are other oligarchs who would prefer not to fall out of a window in the future.  Plenty of motive to ensure that Putin can't make a comeback.

Historically, dictators don't really have great retirement plans.

[LennStar]

But could Putin retire without consequences or will they come after him for something such as treason?

What I hear is that he has enemies within Russia, people whose families want revenge from previous actions of his, and his life would likely be very short if he fell from power. No need for pesky courts.

maybe he will fall from hospital window. tragic accident it will be.

Nah, he will fall out of a bunker window.

[PeteD01]

A Ukrainian perspective on recent events:

How Ukraine’s counteroffensive will affect Russia’s army, future of the war
September 14, 2022 9:20 pm
by Andriy Zagorodnyuk

It is hard to overestimate the importance of events at the front line in the past several days. Information about Ukrainian forces defeating Russian forces has spread all across the world.

We are in particular talking about the frantic withdrawal of the Russian units, the panic among its personnel, the lack of intention to show any resistance at the front line and the rapid advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stretching dozens of kilometers.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has ultimately ruined the image of the Russian army as strong and capable of creating a serious, immediate threat to the democratic world.


https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/andriy-zagorodnyuk-how-ukraines-counteroffensive-will-affect-russias-army-future-of-the-war

[pecunia]

A Ukrainian perspective on recent events:

How Ukraine’s counteroffensive will affect Russia’s army, future of the war
September 14, 2022 9:20 pm
by Andriy Zagorodnyuk

It is hard to overestimate the importance of events at the front line in the past several days. Information about Ukrainian forces defeating Russian forces has spread all across the world.

We are in particular talking about the frantic withdrawal of the Russian units, the panic among its personnel, the lack of intention to show any resistance at the front line and the rapid advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stretching dozens of kilometers.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has ultimately ruined the image of the Russian army as strong and capable of creating a serious, immediate threat to the democratic world.


https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/andriy-zagorodnyuk-how-ukraines-counteroffensive-will-affect-russias-army-future-of-the-war

Years ago when I was a kid teachers tried to tell us how a command economy just didn't work.  That article certainly gives the impression that the Russian military is still stuck in the same mold as the old command economy of the Soviet Union.  I hope what he said is true.

[maizefolk]

But could Putin retire without consequences or will they come after him for something such as treason?

It would be *very* difficult.  Russia is basically a mafia state.  Once you're involved in the power structure, you don't get out.

All those oligarchs falling out of windows and off boats?  They have families.  And there are other oligarchs who would prefer not to fall out of a window in the future.  Plenty of motive to ensure that Putin can't make a comeback.

Historically, dictators don't really have great retirement plans.

Actually a surprising number of dictators have done well in retirement. You just have to flee the country. Here's a few dozen examples (unfortunately as a PDF, I couldn't find another source).

It's harder to envision where Putin could go. Perhaps Saudi Arabia? India? India is surprisingly* pro-Russian.

*Surprisingly for someone who learned world history in US public schools. If you know Indian history it makes much more sense.

[Radagast]

It's harder to envision where Putin could go. Perhaps Saudi Arabia? India? India is surprisingly* pro-Russian.

*Surprisingly for someone who learned world history in US public schools. If you know Indian history it makes much more sense.

I don't know Indian history, but I am simple minded. I have long observed that if England wants to fight France, it allies with Germany. If France wants to fight Germany it allies with Russia. So I assume that China is the biggest threat to India, and so Russia is India's natural ally. Happy to hear deeper reasons though :)

[LennStar]

Years ago when I was a kid teachers tried to tell us how a command economy just didn't work.  That article certainly gives the impression that the Russian military is still stuck in the same mold as the old command economy of the Soviet Union.  I hope what he said is true.

More importantly, the Russian army is stuck in a deepshit loop of corruption and abuse.

If a huge part of your potential soldiers pay several month-incomes to not get into the army (before the war), it tells you all you need to know about morale. The soldiers still in there are so poor they steal washing machines after all.
If equipment does not even start because generals have pocketed years of maintenance, it tells you all you need to know about reliability.

Having a big army that is not good at fighting (against another army) is normal in a dictatorship, not least because a competent army is a thread to the leader. But the Russians have a big load of past bad baggage with them too.

On the other side the Ukrainians may lack in equipment, but what they have works and their morale is sky high, with a competent leadership who is not in there just for grabs.

That is the base for the saying that a dictatorship never wins against a democracy. It's wrong, they often do, but they generally lose if the fight is not over in the first attack, because they can't really increase their fighting power (it risks their leader's survivial) while democracies will double down as much as needed.

Read the book in my sig, it's there for a reason.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Nah, he will fall out of a bunker window.

More subtle than Apartheid, where a prisoner's suicide might involve a dozen stab wounds in the back.

It's harder to envision where Putin could go. Perhaps Saudi Arabia? India? India is surprisingly* pro-Russian.

*Surprisingly for someone who learned world history in US public schools. If you know Indian history it makes much more sense.

I don't know Indian history, but I am simple minded. I have long observed that if England wants to fight France, it allies with Germany. If France wants to fight Germany it allies with Russia. So I assume that China is the biggest threat to India, and so Russia is India's natural ally. Happy to hear deeper reasons though :)

Chinese soldiers killed a number of Indian soldiers over territorial disputes a few years back.  Which is a clean representation of how India views China: as a threat.

China and the Soviet Union were allies, which is now China and Russia - allied again.  I think that relationship goes much deeper than India's ties to Russia.  The way Russia imprisons and removes opposition parties from their elections is closer to how China deals with dissent than India, which is the largest democracy in the world.  China's economic strength is far ahead of India, which is another reason Russia would prefer ties with China over India.

If China helps Russia with military aid, there's a risk of sanctions by the U.S. and Europe.  That could harm China's economy and push unemployment up right before the Communist Party Congress in October.  Given the importance of that event, I doubt China risks it.  I expect empty reassurances on the Russia-China alliance, and nothing risky by China.  Since most TV stations are playing up the meeting between Xi and Putin, it will be interesting to see if they were wrong to emphasize it.

[pecunia]

Nah, he will fall out of a bunker window.

More subtle than Apartheid, where a prisoner's suicide might involve a dozen stab wounds in the back.

It's harder to envision where Putin could go. Perhaps Saudi Arabia? India? India is surprisingly* pro-Russian.

*Surprisingly for someone who learned world history in US public schools. If you know Indian history it makes much more sense.

I don't know Indian history, but I am simple minded. I have long observed that if England wants to fight France, it allies with Germany. If France wants to fight Germany it allies with Russia. So I assume that China is the biggest threat to India, and so Russia is India's natural ally. Happy to hear deeper reasons though :)

Chinese soldiers killed a number of Indian soldiers over territorial disputes a few years back.  Which is a clean representation of how India views China: as a threat.

China and the Soviet Union were allies, which is now China and Russia - allied again.  I think that relationship goes much deeper than India's ties to Russia.  The way Russia imprisons and removes opposition parties from their elections is closer to how China deals with dissent than India, which is the largest democracy in the world.  China's economic strength is far ahead of India, which is another reason Russia would prefer ties with China over India.

If China helps Russia with military aid, there's a risk of sanctions by the U.S. and Europe.  That could harm China's economy and push unemployment up right before the Communist Party Congress in October.  Given the importance of that event, I doubt China risks it.  I expect empty reassurances on the Russia-China alliance, and nothing risky by China.  Since most TV stations are playing up the meeting between Xi and Putin, it will be interesting to see if they were wrong to emphasize it.

China is in the catbird's seat in regards to Russia.  Russia needs China more than China needs Russia.  Russia needs to sell it's raw materials.  China and India may be almost their only customers.  They get a good discount.  Russia needs everything as the world has cut it off. China will be happy to take Russia's oil money reserve.  Why should China risk anything for Russia?  There is little to be gained.

[Jack0Life]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole/index.html
Can't see how long Putin can keep this war going.

[markbike528CBX]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole/index.html
Can't see how long Putin can keep this war going.

Have you seen the US current account deficit? 
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/us-international-transactions-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021

Updates to Third-Quarter 2021 International Transactions Accounts Balances
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
     Preliminary estimate    Revised estimate
Current-account balance    −214.8    −219.9

We (the USA) have been doing this for decades.  Not saying it is a good thing, just that it can be blown off by printing money, selling at a loss to generate revenue etc, throwing creditors out windows etc.

[Travis]

Mass graves uncovered in Izyum. Press tour of the city planned for tomorrow.  Whatever you remember from Bucha and Irpin, 10x that.

[PeteD01]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole/index.html
Can't see how long Putin can keep this war going.

Have you seen the US current account deficit? 
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/us-international-transactions-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021

Updates to Third-Quarter 2021 International Transactions Accounts Balances
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
     Preliminary estimate    Revised estimate
Current-account balance    −214.8    −219.9

We (the USA) have been doing this for decades.  Not saying it is a good thing, just that it can be blown off by printing money, selling at a loss to generate revenue etc, throwing creditors out windows etc.

Sorry, but Russia is in no position to effectively deal with a rapidly rising current account deficit, primarily because of their lack of credit worthiness which is based on expected future revenues.
These revenues would have to be in foreign currencies like $$ or euros and that prospect is not good, to put it mildly.
And Russia can only print rubles - good luck with serving foreign debt with that.
The US is in an entirely different position.

[Travis]

We (the USA) have been doing this for decades.  Not saying it is a good thing, just that it can be blown off by printing money, selling at a loss to generate revenue etc, throwing creditors out windows etc.

Buying US debt is very popular around the world. Buying Russian is debt is less so, and in western markets might not even be possible right now.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

We (the USA) have been doing this for decades.  Not saying it is a good thing, just that it can be blown off by printing money, selling at a loss to generate revenue etc, throwing creditors out windows etc.

Buying US debt is very popular around the world. Buying Russian is debt is less so, and in western markets might not even be possible right now.

Far too understated!  The US dollar has surged against major currencies because everyone wants dollars.  Between the EU desperate for oil & gas, and preferring U.S. Treasuries, the US dollar has surged.  Simplest evidence is roughly 1 USD == 1 Euro.

Mass graves uncovered in Izyum. Press tour of the city planned for tomorrow.  Whatever you remember from Bucha and Irpin, 10x that.

At present, 458 civilians were murdered in Butcha while a mass grave in Izium contains 440 graves.  They could find others, but I haven't heard of thousands killed as yet.  President Zelensky seemed to view Izium as similar to Butcha when he compared the two.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-zelenskyy-says-mass-grave-found-in-izium/a-63144572

[Jack0Life]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole/index.html
Can't see how long Putin can keep this war going.

Have you seen the US current account deficit? 
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/us-international-transactions-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021

Updates to Third-Quarter 2021 International Transactions Accounts Balances
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
     Preliminary estimate    Revised estimate
Current-account balance    −214.8    −219.9

We (the USA) have been doing this for decades.  Not saying it is a good thing, just that it can be blown off by printing money, selling at a loss to generate revenue etc, throwing creditors out windows etc.

As many have said already.
The US has unlimited credit. Putin is running out of money to finance this war.

[jinga nation]

Russia-China-India make an interesting threesome.
Lots of screwing and making up. I'm sure the Kama Sutra has a chapter on this. ;p

On a serious note, a very interesting dynamic. The Indian military has bought MiGs and Sukhoi's over the years, plus French hardware, and American/British too. Reading the Wikipedia entry, there's so much from Russia. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_military_aircraft)

India's current position is to get cheap oil from Russia for fuel and chemical industries. Profit before ethics. Capitalism, bitches!

[Travis]

We (the USA) have been doing this for decades.  Not saying it is a good thing, just that it can be blown off by printing money, selling at a loss to generate revenue etc, throwing creditors out windows etc.

Buying US debt is very popular around the world. Buying Russian is debt is less so, and in western markets might not even be possible right now.

Far too understated!  The US dollar has surged against major currencies because everyone wants dollars.  Between the EU desperate for oil & gas, and preferring U.S. Treasuries, the US dollar has surged.  Simplest evidence is roughly 1 USD == 1 Euro.

Mass graves uncovered in Izyum. Press tour of the city planned for tomorrow.  Whatever you remember from Bucha and Irpin, 10x that.

At present, 458 civilians were murdered in Butcha while a mass grave in Izium contains 440 graves.  They could find others, but I haven't heard of thousands killed as yet.  President Zelensky seemed to view Izium as similar to Butcha when he compared the two.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-zelenskyy-says-mass-grave-found-in-izium/a-63144572

The more I'm seeing about the grave site it might not be so bad - as in it might be a legitimate cemetery. That said, other graves in recently liberated territory show signs of torture/murder and locals have mentioned facilities used for torture. I think this is going to be a theme in every city that gets reclaimed, especially in the south.

[Radagast]

Thoughts on Russia versus China.

I've seen people speculate that fear of antagonizing "western" countries drives China's reluctance to aid Russia too much. China recently has equaled or surpassed Russia in every way, so they have little to gain except cheap resources. I will offer my opinion, though, that a large part of China's reluctance comes from the Chinese concept of "saving face" which I think is underestimated in "western" countries. Basically, a big reason that China doesn't support Russia more is that Russia is just too embarrassing. No Chinese official at any rank could be seen supporting their shenanigans or reporting it to the population or their superiors as something to get behind. Originally China was more supportive. Then Russia did a bunch of bad deeds. Ok whatever who doesn't do a little torture and murder...maybe? But the all time champion of the tank turret toss was filmed by a Chinese film crew; a Russian tank in a secure area. Now that is hard to explain to a domestic audience: are we associating with a loser? Then Moskva sank, and the Russians got their asses beat all over the countryside. It's really too much for a self respecting Chinese to support.

Anyone who thinks China might be a great power, and has taken a bus from Harbin to Vladivostok, would think that Russia does not appear to be a great power. I did so and laughed that Russia might be a great power for years. Around 2018 seemingly knowledgeable people who had been influenced by Russian propaganda (ignorant losers such as Michael Kofman) finally persuaded me that perhaps Russia had turned itself around in spite of their drunken ignorance and underdeveloped poverty. Nope, turns out I was right. And it is no surprise. While I talk crap about China, there is no doubt that they have launched a truly impressive program to develop infrastructure and education even (and especially) in poor and rural areas. While it is not always all it is cracked up to be (lots of face saving!) it is still far more substantial in every way than Russia. Russians mostly seem to have a living standard similar to maybe 1930 in the US (there were some very poor people in the US back then), but a lot drunker and less educated. Only a few cities, like Moscow and St Petersburg, seem to have risen to the level of an average Western city.

[maizefolk]

It's harder to envision where Putin could go. Perhaps Saudi Arabia? India? India is surprisingly* pro-Russian.

*Surprisingly for someone who learned world history in US public schools. If you know Indian history it makes much more sense.

I don't know Indian history, but I am simple minded. I have long observed that if England wants to fight France, it allies with Germany. If France wants to fight Germany it allies with Russia. So I assume that China is the biggest threat to India, and so Russia is India's natural ally. Happy to hear deeper reasons though :)

India and the Soviet Union were aligned during the cold war while the USA was aligned with Pakistan. Particularly during the split between Pakistan and Bangladesh in the 1970s, India felt like the whole world was against it (and interpreted the USA as threatening them with nuclear strikes), except the Soviet Union.

There is a deep well of gratitude towards Russia among many folks who grew up in India that I had no idea existed the invasion of Ukraine lead to many more conversations with Indian co-workers about geopolitics.

[lemanfan]

The failings of the Russian army have started to create a power vacuum in central Asia, It has been said.  People are less afraid of the Russians. And just the past few days, new fighting have erupted between Azerbaijan (Muslim, supported by Turkey) and Armenia (Christian, supported by Russia).

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/armenias-pm-says-49-soldiers-died-in-clashes-with-azerbaijan.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis

And now shelling between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-border-boils-1-killed-2-injured-in-fresh-conflict/articleshow/94204562.cms

Power vacuum in central Asia.   

[Radagast]

It's harder to envision where Putin could go. Perhaps Saudi Arabia? India? India is surprisingly* pro-Russian.

*Surprisingly for someone who learned world history in US public schools. If you know Indian history it makes much more sense.

I don't know Indian history, but I am simple minded. I have long observed that if England wants to fight France, it allies with Germany. If France wants to fight Germany it allies with Russia. So I assume that China is the biggest threat to India, and so Russia is India's natural ally. Happy to hear deeper reasons though :)

India and the Soviet Union were aligned during the cold war while the USA was aligned with Pakistan. Particularly during the split between Pakistan and Bangladesh in the 1970s, India felt like the whole world was against it (and interpreted the USA as threatening them with nuclear strikes), except the Soviet Union.

There is a deep well of gratitude towards Russia among many folks who grew up in India that I had no idea existed the invasion of Ukraine lead to many more conversations with Indian co-workers about geopolitics.

Odd, I took a class on international relations and learned that India had mostly been neutral, seeking benefits from both sides. No mention of a Russian lean. It does seem that the US has sought close ties with Pakistan, which I never understood.

[Radagast]

Another question: I see a lot about how lend-lease will be starting which will have a big effect, but I can't figure out what or how. What capabilities will it provide that would not otherwise be available? How would it change what's happening now?

[Telecaster]

Odd, I took a class on international relations and learned that India had mostly been neutral, seeking benefits from both sides. No mention of a Russian lean. It does seem that the US has sought close ties with Pakistan, which I never understood.

It was mostly to keep Pakistan out of the Soviet sphere of influence. 

[LennStar]

Russia-China-India make an interesting threesome.
Lots of screwing and making up. I'm sure the Kama Sutra has a chapter on this. ;p

On a serious note, a very interesting dynamic. The Indian military has bought MiGs and Sukhoi's over the years, plus French hardware, and American/British too. Reading the Wikipedia entry, there's so much from Russia. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_military_aircraft)

India's current position is to get cheap oil from Russia for fuel and chemical industries. Profit before ethics. Capitalism, bitches!

That has nothing to do with capitalism! (Well, it has but..) Why should India side in a conflict between Russia (they probably don't like much) and The West (they don't like much either)?

Most of the world has not declared any sanctions because for most of the world this is a fight between Russia and the western countries, it has nothing to do with them and losing business would be bad.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I expect empty reassurances on the Russia-China alliance, and nothing risky by China.  Since most TV stations are playing up the meeting between Xi and Putin, it will be interesting to see if they were wrong to emphasize it.

I thought so - the media overemphasized a non-event.  No military aid, just "concerns".

"Putin says Xi has questions and concerns on Ukraine"
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-xi-set-meet-thursday-samarkand-2022-09-15/

[maizefolk]

It's harder to envision where Putin could go. Perhaps Saudi Arabia? India? India is surprisingly* pro-Russian.

*Surprisingly for someone who learned world history in US public schools. If you know Indian history it makes much more sense.

I don't know Indian history, but I am simple minded. I have long observed that if England wants to fight France, it allies with Germany. If France wants to fight Germany it allies with Russia. So I assume that China is the biggest threat to India, and so Russia is India's natural ally. Happy to hear deeper reasons though :)

India and the Soviet Union were aligned during the cold war while the USA was aligned with Pakistan. Particularly during the split between Pakistan and Bangladesh in the 1970s, India felt like the whole world was against it (and interpreted the USA as threatening them with nuclear strikes), except the Soviet Union.

There is a deep well of gratitude towards Russia among many folks who grew up in India that I had no idea existed the invasion of Ukraine lead to many more conversations with Indian co-workers about geopolitics.

Odd, I took a class on international relations and learned that India had mostly been neutral, seeking benefits from both sides. No mention of a Russian lean. It does seem that the US has sought close ties with Pakistan, which I never understood.

Your teacher was probably focusing on the earlier part of the cold war (pre-1970s). India was indeed a leader of the Non-Aligned movement.

However, from the 1970s onward the Soviet Union provided a lot of direct aid and moral support to India in the context of India's long running conflicts with both Pakistan (supported by the USA) and China (the country Nixon convinced to pull away from the Soviet sphere of influence and start to experiment with free market capitalism).

This isn't particularly well written but it was the best short piece I could find on some of the history involved:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Soviet_Treaty_of_Friendship_and_Cooperation

[markbike528CBX]

We (the USA) have been doing this for decades.  Not saying it is a good thing, just that it can be blown off by printing money, selling at a loss to generate revenue etc, throwing creditors out windows etc.

Buying US debt is very popular around the world. Buying Russian is debt is less so, and in western markets might not even be possible right now.

Far too understated!  The US dollar has surged against major currencies because everyone wants dollars.  Between the EU desperate for oil & gas, and preferring U.S. Treasuries, the US dollar has surged.  Simplest evidence is roughly 1 USD == 1 Euro.

My badly made point was that isolation, sanctions and the like are unlikely to cause regime change or destabilization, or even greatly hinder a war economy.

example in 1944, after 5 years of total war, the German military production reached it's highest levels.   
More planes tanks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_armored_fighting_vehicle_production_during_World_War_II  in 1944 than ever.
GDP in the German Reich (Germany, Austria mostly) was at a maximum in 1944.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_World_War_II

I'm certain that Germany was suffering under sanctions and moral disapproval by that time.  As well as bombs, cannon fire and bullets .
Don't think that anyone was loaning Germany money at the time.

I was/am responding to the notion that mere economics _will_ cause some sort of collapse.

I agree with Jack0Life in that I don't see how Putin could carry on, but I'm not a dictator with the power of money printing and the state security apparatus.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole/index.html
Can't see how long Putin can keep this war going.

Snippped .....

Sorry, but Russia is in no position to effectively deal with a rapidly rising current account deficit, primarily because of their lack of credit worthiness which is based on expected future revenues.
These revenues would have to be in foreign currencies like $$ or euros and that prospect is not good, to put it mildly.
And Russia can only print rubles - good luck with serving foreign debt with that.
The US is in an entirely different position.

 

[former player]

We (the USA) have been doing this for decades.  Not saying it is a good thing, just that it can be blown off by printing money, selling at a loss to generate revenue etc, throwing creditors out windows etc.

Buying US debt is very popular around the world. Buying Russian is debt is less so, and in western markets might not even be possible right now.

Far too understated!  The US dollar has surged against major currencies because everyone wants dollars.  Between the EU desperate for oil & gas, and preferring U.S. Treasuries, the US dollar has surged.  Simplest evidence is roughly 1 USD == 1 Euro.

My badly made point was that isolation, sanctions and the like are unlikely to cause regime change or destabilization, or even greatly hinder a war economy.

example in 1944, after 5 years of total war, the German military production reached it's highest levels.   
More planes tanks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_armored_fighting_vehicle_production_during_World_War_II  in 1944 than ever.
GDP in the German Reich (Germany, Austria mostly) was at a maximum in 1944.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_World_War_II

I'm certain that Germany was suffering under sanctions and moral disapproval by that time.  As well as bombs, cannon fire and bullets .
Don't think that anyone was loaning Germany money at the time.

I was/am responding to the notion that mere economics _will_ cause some sort of collapse.

I agree with Jack0Life in that I don't see how Putin could carry on, but I'm not a dictator with the power of money printing and the state security apparatus.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole/index.html
Can't see how long Putin can keep this war going.

Snippped .....

Sorry, but Russia is in no position to effectively deal with a rapidly rising current account deficit, primarily because of their lack of credit worthiness which is based on expected future revenues.
These revenues would have to be in foreign currencies like $$ or euros and that prospect is not good, to put it mildly.
And Russia can only print rubles - good luck with serving foreign debt with that.
The US is in an entirely different position.

By 1944 Germany had added the resources of the whole of central and eastern Europe, including a lot of slave labour, as compared to 1939.

Putin doesn't have any extra land or resources. It does have some more people, illegally cleansed from occupied parts of Ukraine.  What is doesn't have access to, and can't replace, is western technology.  Right now it's trying to scrounge up weaponry from Iran and North Korea, which tells you where it is on armaments, and Russian vehicle production and railways maintenance has fallen off a cliff because of sanctions.

[Sibley]

Will economic sanctions lead to regime changes? Not on their own. They might add a little fuel to the fire, but the fire is going to be based on cultural, behavioral, and societal factors. I do remember reading that various people who know a lot more than I do about Russia expected the shit to hit the fan this autumn. Well, it's September and it looks like the shit may well be starting to fly. Slow burns take time before they explode, if they do.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Ukraine has at least considered timing their counteroffensive to help push that slow burn into a firestorm. As much as Ukraine isn't Russian, they share a lot of history and so I'd expect that Ukraine's leadership has a decent idea of what the Russian people might do in various situations. Like the Russian army getting creamed.

[pecunia]

Will economic sanctions lead to regime changes? Not on their own. They might add a little fuel to the fire, but the fire is going to be based on cultural, behavioral, and societal factors. I do remember reading that various people who know a lot more than I do about Russia expected the shit to hit the fan this autumn. Well, it's September and it looks like the shit may well be starting to fly. Slow burns take time before they explode, if they do.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Ukraine has at least considered timing their counteroffensive to help push that slow burn into a firestorm. As much as Ukraine isn't Russian, they share a lot of history and so I'd expect that Ukraine's leadership has a decent idea of what the Russian people might do in various situations. Like the Russian army getting creamed.

Zelensky is a Russian speaker.  He is apparently an excellent orator being a former actor.  Does he ever make speeches directly addressing the Russian people?  Certainly, his speeches would not be heard over Russian TV, but I would think they would be directly disseminated to a lot of people.  I would think his speeches could raise a lot of questions in the minds of Russians.

[Sibley]

Will economic sanctions lead to regime changes? Not on their own. They might add a little fuel to the fire, but the fire is going to be based on cultural, behavioral, and societal factors. I do remember reading that various people who know a lot more than I do about Russia expected the shit to hit the fan this autumn. Well, it's September and it looks like the shit may well be starting to fly. Slow burns take time before they explode, if they do.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Ukraine has at least considered timing their counteroffensive to help push that slow burn into a firestorm. As much as Ukraine isn't Russian, they share a lot of history and so I'd expect that Ukraine's leadership has a decent idea of what the Russian people might do in various situations. Like the Russian army getting creamed.

Zelensky is a Russian speaker.  He is apparently an excellent orator being a former actor.  Does he ever make speeches directly addressing the Russian people?  Certainly, his speeches would not be heard over Russian TV, but I would think they would be directly disseminated to a lot of people.  I would think his speeches could raise a lot of questions in the minds of Russians.

I don't know about recently, but earlier this year he did have several speeches which addressed the Russian people directly. Distribution to his target audience I don't know of course. And from the videos and speeches that I've watched, I judge him to be a good speaker.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

In my view, the restrictions placed on Russia do not rise to the level of being called sanctions.  Actually, I hope Zelensky makes a similar point, so that the world knows how much money is still flowing into Russia.

"In the first 100 days of the war, Russia earned a record 93 billion euros in revenue by exporting oil, gas and coal"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/16/politics/russia-sanctions-ukraine-slow-economic-pain/index.html

Europe requires years to extract itself from Russian energy.  And Russia has found partners in China, India and even Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is essentially laundering Russian crude oil by displacing some internal use of its own oil.  The US initially expected Russia's GDP would fall by 15%, but the impact is probably closer to 4%.

If you follow the money, and not what politicians say, you'd conclude Germany is supporting Russia far more than Ukraine.  Their aid to Ukraine since the war began is less than what Germany sent Russia in March after the invasion (mostly buying natural gas).
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-germany-484fdfeecf86483356f5f003b77e30da
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/media-information/2022/ukraine-support-tracker-newly-committed-aid-for-ukraine-drops-to-almost-zero/

[LennStar]

Just looking at dollar (or worde Rubel) does not tell you the story. The income is so high because the prices have risen so much.

The point is: What is Russia going to buy with it, except Iranian and North Korean weapons?

What Russia needs is high tech, and that they don't get. That's why their cars now come without airbags. That's why their western planes are not flying much and their Russian planes with lower safety requirements.

Russias factories have always had high stocks because that's not the first time anything disrupted supply heavily. But storages will run empty.

If you want to know where the sanctions hit, look a the numbers the Russian ministries are no longer publicising. That amount has steadily risen.
Russia is going back to the 80s.

But will that mean Putin will be austed? Unlikely. But even if, the replacement will likely not be better.
Russia is one of those countries under the curse of ressources.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

In my view, the restrictions placed on Russia do not rise to the level of being called sanctions.  Actually, I hope Zelensky makes a similar point, so that the world knows how much money is still flowing into Russia.

"In the first 100 days of the war, Russia earned a record 93 billion euros in revenue by exporting oil, gas and coal"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/16/politics/russia-sanctions-ukraine-slow-economic-pain/index.html

Europe requires years to extract itself from Russian energy.  And Russia has found partners in China, India and even Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is essentially laundering Russian crude oil by displacing some internal use of its own oil.  The US initially expected Russia's GDP would fall by 15%, but the impact is probably closer to 4%.

If you follow the money, and not what politicians say, you'd conclude Germany is supporting Russia far more than Ukraine.  Their aid to Ukraine since the war began is less than what Germany sent Russia in March after the invasion (mostly buying natural gas).
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-germany-484fdfeecf86483356f5f003b77e30da
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/media-information/2022/ukraine-support-tracker-newly-committed-aid-for-ukraine-drops-to-almost-zero/

Even the (Very Bad) Orange Man warned in 2018 about German dependence on Russia (iirc, he was mocked by the Germans and much of MSM at the time).

[zolotiyeruki]

In my view, the restrictions placed on Russia do not rise to the level of being called sanctions.  Actually, I hope Zelensky makes a similar point, so that the world knows how much money is still flowing into Russia.

"In the first 100 days of the war, Russia earned a record 93 billion euros in revenue by exporting oil, gas and coal"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/16/politics/russia-sanctions-ukraine-slow-economic-pain/index.html

Europe requires years to extract itself from Russian energy.  And Russia has found partners in China, India and even Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is essentially laundering Russian crude oil by displacing some internal use of its own oil.  The US initially expected Russia's GDP would fall by 15%, but the impact is probably closer to 4%.

If you follow the money, and not what politicians say, you'd conclude Germany is supporting Russia far more than Ukraine.  Their aid to Ukraine since the war began is less than what Germany sent Russia in March after the invasion (mostly buying natural gas).
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-germany-484fdfeecf86483356f5f003b77e30da
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/media-information/2022/ukraine-support-tracker-newly-committed-aid-for-ukraine-drops-to-almost-zero/

Even the (Very Bad) Orange Man warned in 2018 about German dependence on Russia (iirc, he was mocked by the Germans and much of MSM at the time).

Yeah, they're attitude....hasn't aged well.

[LennStar]

Even the (Very Bad) Orange Man warned in 2018 about German dependence on Russia (iirc, he was mocked by the Germans and much of MSM at the time).

That's because it was so blatently a sales pitch for his overflowing fracking stuff (Fracking had flooded the market and was operating at a loss), that everyone rolled their eyes at it.
May I quote Trump too, from the G20 meeting a year later, speaking about Putin?

He is a great guy. I think we had a really good meeting. I think he is a good person, we started discussing trade. I think we should have trade between Russia and USA, two great countries. We had a great meeting yesterday. He is a terrific person. Thank you very much.

[SotI]

Even the (Very Bad) Orange Man warned in 2018 about German dependence on Russia (iirc, he was mocked by the Germans and much of MSM at the time).

That's because it was so blatently a sales pitch for his overflowing fracking stuff (Fracking had flooded the market and was operating at a loss), that everyone rolled their eyes at it.

Seems like Germany is now buying US fracking gas anyway ....
There is a general EU issue on handling energy (strategically).

Still, I hope Ukraine will be able to regain their country. But it feels like a proxy war to me where the "old hegemon" (US + its Europesn allies) is being challenged by contenders.
Overall outcome still uncertain. Interesting times, indeed.

I just feel sorry for all who are being sucked into this clusterf**k.

[pecunia]

Even the (Very Bad) Orange Man warned in 2018 about German dependence on Russia (iirc, he was mocked by the Germans and much of MSM at the time).

That's because it was so blatently a sales pitch for his overflowing fracking stuff (Fracking had flooded the market and was operating at a loss), that everyone rolled their eyes at it.
May I quote Trump too, from the G20 meeting a year later, speaking about Putin?

He is a great guy. I think we had a really good meeting. I think he is a good person, we started discussing trade. I think we should have trade between Russia and USA, two great countries. We had a great meeting yesterday. He is a terrific person. Thank you very much.

Yeh - Putin ought to like him very much.  trump sure does have a high opinion of Mr. Putin.  The world is kind of down on Putin right now because he is an alleged war criminal.  Yet Trump sticks by him.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

[Radagast]

Even the (Very Bad) Orange Man warned in 2018 about German dependence on Russia (iirc, he was mocked by the Germans and much of MSM at the time).

That's because it was so blatently a sales pitch for his overflowing fracking stuff (Fracking had flooded the market and was operating at a loss), that everyone rolled their eyes at it.

Seems like Germany is now buying US fracking gas anyway ....
There is a general EU issue on handling energy (strategically).

Still, I hope Ukraine will be able to regain their country. But it feels like a proxy war to me where the "old hegemon" (US + its Europesn allies) is being challenged by contenders.
Overall outcome still uncertain. Interesting times, indeed.

I just feel sorry for all who are being sucked into this clusterf**k.

Proxy war? Old hegemon? Russia had hegemony over that part of the world for hundreds of years, this is Russia falling apart. Conflict is flaring throughout the ancient Russian Empire as they are no longer strong enough to suppress it. I would not even call it a proxy war, maybe "War of Ukrainian Independence from Russian Influence." I think right through 2014 (or even 2022) most people in the US, even highly knowledgeable people, thought Ukraine and Russia were so buddy-buddy that there was no point in trying to  pry them apart. There is now a minor component of proxy war, but that was not how it was through 2022-02. Further, "proxy" implies that only the US and Russia and other "great powers" have agency, and all others are just pawns, which I reject.

Who is being sucked in? Ukrainians who were sitting around minding their own business, or Russians who went there on purpose?