Ukraine

[Radagast]

Fair weather friends?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10656963/Chinese-energy-firm-Sinopec-Group-cancels-380m-investment-Russia-Ukraine-sanction-fears.html

Does Putin remind you of the second grade?  Wasn't there a time when all the kids shunned you?  I hope you weren't bald like him.

China I think only cares about themselves. They have friends of convenience.

Wouldn't surprise me if they were complying with sanctions in one hand and violating them in the other.

Chinese people love a winner. They firmly believe that 2nd place is "first loser." See how their athletes usually get gold, or don't medal at all in the Olympics. There will be little respect from China for a nation that won the trophy for "Second Best Army in Ukraine."

[Poundwise]

I think Americans overestimate the Chinese appetite for aggression. This is a country of only children. They are not going to send their darlings to war, even if they talk big.

[Mr FrugalNL]

Though I think that Russia will try to protract the war for as long as possible, because Ukraine will become integrated tightly with Europe the moment the war ends.

I don't think Russia wil do that. Russia had every reason to protract the war waged by the Russian-backed separatists in the Donbass because the benefits (keeping Ukraine out of the EU and NATO) far outweighed the costs (financial, reputational etc.). The cost/benefit ratio skewed the other way the moment regular Russian forces entered Ukraine with the stated goals of 'denazifying and demilitarising' Ukraine. The costs of the invasion in terms of Russia's international diplomatic and military reputation, manpower and equipment losses, Putin's domestic political capital and so on are immense for a wide range of reasons from dogged Ukrainian resistance, international sanctions and domestic opposition to the war to Russian military ineptness. Russia has every incentive to end this war as quickly as possible. If and when there is a peace deal it might once more be in Russia's interests to stoke a low-intensity armed conflict in Ukraine to keep the EU and NATO out but for now I can only see them wanting to end the war quickly. I expect they will pursue that goal through military means for now. They will probably become amenable to diplomacy only if and when they feel they have won or can no longer win.

[former player]

I think the turning point for Russia will be if they can take Mariupol, partly because it gives them a contiguous area between Crimea and the Donbas and partly because it is defended by the Azov Brigrade who would become Putin's "Nazi cleansing".

But the Azov Brigrade will fight to the death because surrendering means humiliation, torture and death at the hands of Putin's secret police and Kadyrov's Chechen butchers.

[LennStar]

Ukraine has retaken several villages between Kharkiv and Sumy, but it also looks like Russia is pulling back forces in that region and northwest of Kyiv.  Don't know yet if its a temporary reorganization or if they're going to abandon those fronts.

I think the turning point for Russia will be if they can take Mariupol, partly because it gives them a contiguous area between Crimea and the Donbas and partly because it is defended by the Azov Brigrade who would become Putin's "Nazi cleansing".

But the Azov Brigrade will fight to the death because surrendering means humiliation, torture and death at the hands of Putin's secret police and Kadyrov's Chechen butchers.

The current thoughts are that Putin has finally accepted that he can't get his initia goals. Instead he is going for more or less a devided country. For this he of course needs Mariupol. That would mean a direct land corridor (instead of a single bridge to Crimea) and total encirclement of the sea by Russia.
This is what the Russian army is pressing now (hence the bomnbardmend) and they need troops from the other regions for that.
Basically dividing the country either on the Dnjepr if the attacks turns out to be on the better side in the future, or a Donbass - Crimea corridor of Russian territory. Donbass has already announced a referendum on getting absorbed into Russia (or what amounts to it).

Someone earlier has mentioned that Russia has every reason to want this war ended as fast as possible. That is true. It is less true of Putin. But most importantly, if Putin goes out of the country without a win, it will likely be the end of his grip on power (even if it might take a year or two) and the end of his ambition to rectify the "biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century" even if not.
Russia might want to end this war (it certainly didn't wanted to start it from all we know), but not Putin.


Also for similar reasons China will not shy away from losing a few tens of thousands of soldiers to get Taiwan, just saying. That's a speck in the statistic and btw. there is a huge surplus of young man (compared to girls) because of the one child policy. Losing a few of them might actually make the country more peaceful.
Don't think dictators care about people. They cannot afford it even if they wanted, that's why dictatorships always end up being "evil". Being evil gives you a competitive advantage in a dictatorship. (points to signature again)

[Sibley]

I think Americans overestimate the Chinese appetite for aggression. This is a country of only children. They are not going to send their darlings to war, even if they talk big.

And LennStar posted (I don't know how to double quote):

"Also for similar reasons China will not shy away from losing a few tens of thousands of soldiers to get Taiwan, just saying. That's a speck in the statistic and btw. there is a huge surplus of young man (compared to girls) because of the one child policy. Losing a few of them might actually make the country more peaceful.
Don't think dictators care about people. They cannot afford it even if they wanted, that's why dictatorships always end up being "evil". Being evil gives you a competitive advantage in a dictatorship. (points to signature again)"

Agreed. China doesn't care about individuals. If they did, they wouldn't have such severe human rights problems. I also wouldn't put it past them to deal with the problem of too many elderly by mass euthanasia, or worse.

[pecunia]

I think Americans overestimate the Chinese appetite for aggression. This is a country of only children. They are not going to send their darlings to war, even if they talk big.

And LennStar posted (I don't know how to double quote):

"Also for similar reasons China will not shy away from losing a few tens of thousands of soldiers to get Taiwan, just saying. That's a speck in the statistic and btw. there is a huge surplus of young man (compared to girls) because of the one child policy. Losing a few of them might actually make the country more peaceful.
Don't think dictators care about people. They cannot afford it even if they wanted, that's why dictatorships always end up being "evil". Being evil gives you a competitive advantage in a dictatorship. (points to signature again)"

Agreed. China doesn't care about individuals. If they did, they wouldn't have such severe human rights problems. I also wouldn't put it past them to deal with the problem of too many elderly by mass euthanasia, or worse.

I think the Chinese do care about money.  Sure, they have their ideology, but that's already been severely tainted by money.  Taiwan has what? It has 24 million.  It has semiconductor manufacturing.  Is this manufacturing worth more to China that taking Taiwan?  Chinese are smart.  I think some have it figured that they have the best of both worlds right now.  They trade with Taiwan.  If they blew it to hell, they would piss off the US and their neighbors.  It would be bad for business.  Gangsters understand that as well as smart dictatorial systems.

They've got time.  The US grows weaker and they grow stronger.

It is the converse of Russia.  Since the fall of communism, Russia has been growing weaker.  They sell oil and gas, but are not an economic powerhouse like China.  Russia attacks a big country.  If China were to attack Taiwan, it would attack a small country.

China does a lot of things because they make sense.  The Russian attack on Ukraine does not make sense.  Russia would have been better off selling gas and oil to the world and growing stronger.  It appears to have been done for emotional reasons rather than economic.

Opinions will, of course, differ.

[RWD]

I don't know how to double quote

Start a reply. Scroll down to the post(s) you want to quote. Click the "Insert Quote" button. It will insert the quote at the current position of your text cursor.

Alternatively, open the same thread in another tab, click on "Quote" on a post you want to quote. Copy/paste the generated text to your actual reply where desired. This can be useful if one (or more) of the posts you want to quote doesn't show up just by scrolling (only a limited amount of history is displayed while replying).

[LennStar]

Huh? my post with the two tabs tip has disappeared? :(

Anyway...

I also wouldn't put it past them to deal with the problem of too many elderly by mass euthanasia, or worse.

I disagree with that. China is still surprisingly confuzian. Honor the elders, that stuff. It is one of the very few countries where, when AI car researches questioned the people, if the car has to decide between killing a child and an elder, the people voted for the elder.

Well, we will know in aobut 20-30 years when only 1-child children are in the workforce.

[Sibley]

Huh? my post with the two tabs tip has disappeared? :(

Anyway...

I also wouldn't put it past them to deal with the problem of too many elderly by mass euthanasia, or worse.

I disagree with that. China is still surprisingly confuzian. Honor the elders, that stuff. It is one of the very few countries where, when AI car researches questioned the people, if the car has to decide between killing a child and an elder, the people voted for the elder.

Well, we will know in aobut 20-30 years when only 1-child children are in the workforce.

If you're referring to me butchering how to do double quotes, sorry. RWD is trying to teach me, we'll see if I'm smart enough to learn. :)

Re the Chinese elderly, its one thing to round them up in cattle cars and take them to be gassed. But building a very large nursing home then having a carbon monoxide leak that isn't found until most of the residents are dead is a very different thing. Or you just need a nurse to accidently administer the wrong medication. It's not all that hard to kill people.

-------
Back on topic - apparently Russia is suspected of positioning one of the oligarchs and various Ukrainians, in Kyiv. Putin, everyone knows that you like to poison people. Therefore, we know its you.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-billionaire-abramovich-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-hit-by-suspected-2022-03-28/

[Radagast]

Re the Chinese elderly, its one thing to round them up in cattle cars and take them to be gassed. But building a very large nursing home then having a carbon monoxide leak that isn't found until most of the residents are dead is a very different thing. Or you just need a nurse to accidently administer the wrong medication. It's not all that hard to kill people.

I agree with LennStar, that doesn't sound like Chinese culture at all.

[PeteD01]

Re the Chinese elderly, its one thing to round them up in cattle cars and take them to be gassed. But building a very large nursing home then having a carbon monoxide leak that isn't found until most of the residents are dead is a very different thing. Or you just need a nurse to accidently administer the wrong medication. It's not all that hard to kill people.

I agree with LennStar, that doesn't sound like Chinese culture at all.

Does sound like anti-asian racism, doesn´t it?

[PDXTabs]

The people I know who have spent more time in China than myself tell me that there is an unspoken social contract between the citizens and the CCP. No one is super thrilled with the government but as long as things are progressively getting better they aren't going to do anything about it. Obviously there are some ethnic minorities that this doesn't apply to, but the average Chinese citizen living in China lives better today than 10, 20, 30 years ago. I'm not sure that would still be true in a war with Taiwan, and I think that the CCP knows it.

[Sibley]

Re the Chinese elderly, its one thing to round them up in cattle cars and take them to be gassed. But building a very large nursing home then having a carbon monoxide leak that isn't found until most of the residents are dead is a very different thing. Or you just need a nurse to accidently administer the wrong medication. It's not all that hard to kill people.

I agree with LennStar, that doesn't sound like Chinese culture at all.

Does sound like anti-asian racism, doesn´t it?

or maybe it's someone who's primary knowledge of the Chinese culture and history is pretty evenly split between the really good things and the really bad things, and who is also really pragmatic and blunt and not all that optimistic? Sure, maybe I'm wrong. I hope I am. And yes, I'm sure that I harbor prejudices despite my best efforts. But I have also seen, over and over again that China's record on human rights is not great, and yes, I'm going to include China's ethnic minorities in the mix here. If they do show great respect and veneration of the elderly for a portion of the population but not for other segments, then that's a problem.

The jury's still out on how they're going to handle an extreme demographic crisis. It's also still out on the US for that matter.

[maizefolk]

The current government of mainland China has done enough actual bad things, there is no need to make up hypothetical terrible things they haven't done. And it is good to be cautious about that extremely slippery slope from "the government to China" to "China" (as some sort of monolithic entity) to "Chinese people".

In this thread I figured I'd be more likely to have to make this point about Putin vs Russia vs Russian people but it works the same way. Most people in China are good and caring people, just like most other countries. Love their parents and their children.

Some people in China thinks we're mostly monsters here in the USA. Always makes me feel bad when I run into one of those folks. No need to make anyone from China reading this thread feel the same way reading Americans talk about them.

[Imma]

-------
Back on topic - apparently Russia is suspected of positioning one of the oligarchs and various Ukrainians, in Kyiv. Putin, everyone knows that you like to poison people. Therefore, we know its you.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-billionaire-abramovich-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-hit-by-suspected-2022-03-28/

And not just "any" oligarch, but Ramon Abramovich, arguably the most prominent oligarch in the west, the owner of Chelsea. Abramovich is Russian of Ukrainian Jewish descent and a long-term ally of Putin. I'm sure if they had wanted him dead they'd have succeeded, but this was a very clear warning. It explains why Abramovich suddenly disappeared as a negotiator.

[pecunia]

-------
Back on topic - apparently Russia is suspected of positioning one of the oligarchs and various Ukrainians, in Kyiv. Putin, everyone knows that you like to poison people. Therefore, we know its you.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-billionaire-abramovich-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-hit-by-suspected-2022-03-28/

And not just "any" oligarch, but Ramon Abramovich, arguably the most prominent oligarch in the west, the owner of Chelsea. Abramovich is Russian of Ukrainian Jewish descent and a long-term ally of Putin. I'm sure if they had wanted him dead they'd have succeeded, but this was a very clear warning. It explains why Abramovich suddenly disappeared as a negotiator.

I used to give them credit for nasty stuff like that.  I mean they could get it done.  However there is Alexei Anatolievich Navalny.  (Yes I cut and pasted it)  They tried to poison him.  Then lookin' at history I remember the tale of Rasputin.  They could have just screwed up.  I mean many aspects of this war have been a screw up.

At least Russia sounds like they are getting more serious about talks.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/28/russia-ukraine-set-for-face-to-face-peace

[Sibley]

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-spokesman-russia-would-use-nuclear-weapons-only-case-threat-existence-2022-03-28/

Russia says they won't use nukes. They also said they weren't going to invade Ukraine and here we are. Nukes are quite a bit different, so we'll see what happens.

Hope peace talks work. I'm not holding my breath though.

Pecunia - I copy and paste a lot when I'm using actual names of people or places. No shame in trying to spell it right.

[YttriumNitrate]

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-spokesman-russia-would-use-nuclear-weapons-only-case-threat-existence-2022-03-28/
Russia says they won't use nukes. They also said they weren't going to invade Ukraine and here we are. Nukes are quite a bit different, so we'll see what happens.

I seriously doubt the Russians will use nukes since they can achieve similar results with more conventional weapons. Firebombing Kiev could level the city without nearly the level of international outrage as using a nuke.

[Sibley]

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-spokesman-russia-would-use-nuclear-weapons-only-case-threat-existence-2022-03-28/
Russia says they won't use nukes. They also said they weren't going to invade Ukraine and here we are. Nukes are quite a bit different, so we'll see what happens.

I seriously doubt the Russians will use nukes since they can achieve similar results with more conventional weapons. Firebombing Kiev could level the city without nearly the level of international outrage as using a nuke.

Agreed. Assuming that Putin is playing by the same set of rules and using the same set of assumptions. I don't know if he is.

[LennStar]

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-spokesman-russia-would-use-nuclear-weapons-only-case-threat-existence-2022-03-28/

Russia says they won't use nukes. They also said they weren't going to invade Ukraine and here we are. Nukes are quite a bit different, so we'll see what happens.

Hope peace talks work. I'm not holding my breath though.

Pecunia - I copy and paste a lot when I'm using actual names of people or places. No shame in trying to spell it right.

Isn't it a strange coincidence that this came hours after EU states said that they wouldn't pay their gas in Rubles?

[Sibley]

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-spokesman-russia-would-use-nuclear-weapons-only-case-threat-existence-2022-03-28/

Russia says they won't use nukes. They also said they weren't going to invade Ukraine and here we are. Nukes are quite a bit different, so we'll see what happens.

Hope peace talks work. I'm not holding my breath though.

Pecunia - I copy and paste a lot when I'm using actual names of people or places. No shame in trying to spell it right.

Isn't it a strange coincidence that this came hours after EU states said that they wouldn't pay their gas in Rubles?

Did they? I'm sure it's just a coincidence.   /s

[Sibley]

If this is true, then wow. Reports that hackers (Anonymous) erased 65 terabytes of data from the Russian FAA's servers - and there is no backup.

https://www.aviation24.be/miscellaneous/russo-ukrainian-war/powerful-cyber-attack-on-russias-civil-aviation-authority-servers-no-more-data-nor-back-up/

[Travis]

-------
Back on topic - apparently Russia is suspected of positioning one of the oligarchs and various Ukrainians, in Kyiv. Putin, everyone knows that you like to poison people. Therefore, we know its you.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-billionaire-abramovich-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-hit-by-suspected-2022-03-28/

And not just "any" oligarch, but Ramon Abramovich, arguably the most prominent oligarch in the west, the owner of Chelsea. Abramovich is Russian of Ukrainian Jewish descent and a long-term ally of Putin. I'm sure if they had wanted him dead they'd have succeeded, but this was a very clear warning. It explains why Abramovich suddenly disappeared as a negotiator.

I used to give them credit for nasty stuff like that.  I mean they could get it done.  However there is Alexei Anatolievich Navalny.  (Yes I cut and pasted it)  They tried to poison him.  Then lookin' at history I remember the tale of Rasputin.  They could have just screwed up.  I mean many aspects of this war have been a screw up.

At least Russia sounds like they are getting more serious about talks.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/28/russia-ukraine-set-for-face-to-face-peace

This is a phrase I will never attribute to Vladimir Putin. His negotiation team said they were not putting Kyiv at risk because that's where the leaders live and that they were pulling out of Kyiv and Chernihiv (while bombing them) in order to "increase mutual trust in negotiations."  The same people who said they weren't going to invade Ukraine, that they're not bombing cities, and that they're not kidnapping tens of thousands of people. 

They're not done with this war while it looks like they have a chance of winning the best possible outcome for themselves.

They "sound" serious. That's all.

[pecunia]

I used to give them credit for nasty stuff like that.  I mean they could get it done.  However there is Alexei Anatolievich Navalny.  (Yes I cut and pasted it)  They tried to poison him.  Then lookin' at history I remember the tale of Rasputin.  They could have just screwed up.  I mean many aspects of this war have been a screw up.

At least Russia sounds like they are getting more serious about talks.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/28/russia-ukraine-set-for-face-to-face-peace
[/quote]

Good liars can sound serious.  These folks have been good liars for many many years.  They are so good that some of them actually believe their own BS.

This is a phrase I will never attribute to Vladimir Putin. His negotiation team said they were not putting Kyiv at risk because that's where the leaders live and that they were pulling out of Kyiv and Chernihiv (while bombing them) in order to "increase mutual trust in negotiations."  The same people who said they weren't going to invade Ukraine, that they're not bombing cities, and that they're not kidnapping tens of thousands of people. 

They're not done with this war while it looks like they have a chance of winning the best possible outcome for themselves.

They "sound" serious. That's all.
[/quote]

[LennStar]

Navanlny said he wasn't poisened. I also find that highly dubious. There is nothing in it for Putin than even more troubles if he poisens delegates of a peace talk. That is not "underestimating Ukraine army" level of dumb, that is "throwing all atomic bombs at NATO without taking out the safety" level of dumb.

Anyway....

Our German Minister today announced that he has started the catastrophy plan level 1 (meaning "serious risk of not getting any gas"), which officially sets in motion planning of who to cut off and who not etc.

And at the same time Russia announced that "pay in Rubles" will not start from April 1, that was a misunderstanding. It's something for the future that will happen step by step.

So many coincidences!

[pecunia]

Man points gun at may head. He asks. "Do I point gun at your head?  I expect right answer." 

I look in the mans eyes and see what the right answer is.  "No gun," I say.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexei_Navalny

I think if I was in Russian prison, I would say, "No poison."

And at the same time Russia announced that "pay in Rubles" will not start from April 1, that was a misunderstanding.

Maybe, they will say "April Fools," on April 2nd.

Can't Germany start up some of the old nukes?  Could this save burning some Russian gas?  I would think even the Green Party in Germany would understand these are special circumstances.

[maizefolk]

Can't Germany start up some of the old nukes?  Could this save burning some Russian gas?  I would think even the Green Party in Germany would understand these are special circumstances.

Eventually maybe? But even with political support and financial resources bringing a decommissioned nuclear reactor back online is not a small or short term undertaking.

It sounds like Germany's plan if Russia cuts off gas is to shut down natural gas using industries to prioritize heating people's homes. I believe a lot of older German homes were originally coal heated (much simpler system to manufacture and deploy than nuclear power plants) and if they can make it to spring a crash course could probably convert a lot of those older buildings back to be coal heated before next winter.

Would suck for air quality (and global warning targets) but better than people dying in the cold and Germany definitely has plenty of coal.

[former player]

Can't Germany start up some of the old nukes?  Could this save burning some Russian gas?  I would think even the Green Party in Germany would understand these are special circumstances.

Eventually maybe? But even with political support and financial resources bringing a decommissioned nuclear reactor back online is not a small or short term undertaking.

It sounds like Germany's plan if Russia cuts off gas is to shut down natural gas using industries to prioritize heating people's homes. I believe a lot of older German homes were originally coal heated (much simpler system to manufacture and deploy than nuclear power plants) and if they can make it to spring a crash course could probably convert a lot of those older buildings back to be coal heated before next winter.

Would suck for air quality (and global warning targets) but better than people dying in the cold and Germany definitely has plenty of coal.

Coal-fired boilers in the home require significant work on the part of the occupier:  ordering coal, having somewhere (coal bunker) to keep it, physical ability to shovel coal into hod and carry it indoors and presence in the home to do that on a regular basis to keep it going.  Compared to turning on a gas tap it's a lot of trouble, there's a significant delay in producing heat/hot water from a standing start, and the frail elderly and disabled can't do it at all - I remember when I was very young my father having to walk down the road before school to fire up the coal-fired boiler of an elderly neighbour and it took time and effort out of his day to do it.  Plus, you have to manufacture and install the boilers which is not easy at scale.

Much more feasible at short notice to put in electric heaters and electric water heaters - as long as you can increase the electricity supply to match the new demand.

[maizefolk]

Can't Germany start up some of the old nukes?  Could this save burning some Russian gas?  I would think even the Green Party in Germany would understand these are special circumstances.

Eventually maybe? But even with political support and financial resources bringing a decommissioned nuclear reactor back online is not a small or short term undertaking.

It sounds like Germany's plan if Russia cuts off gas is to shut down natural gas using industries to prioritize heating people's homes. I believe a lot of older German homes were originally coal heated (much simpler system to manufacture and deploy than nuclear power plants) and if they can make it to spring a crash course could probably convert a lot of those older buildings back to be coal heated before next winter.

Would suck for air quality (and global warning targets) but better than people dying in the cold and Germany definitely has plenty of coal.

Coal-fired boilers in the home require significant work on the part of the occupier:  ordering coal, having somewhere (coal bunker) to keep it, physical ability to shovel coal into hod and carry it indoors and presence in the home to do that on a regular basis to keep it going.  Compared to turning on a gas tap it's a lot of trouble, there's a significant delay in producing heat/hot water from a standing start, and the frail elderly and disabled can't do it at all - I remember when I was very young my father having to walk down the road before school to fire up the coal-fired boiler of an elderly neighbour and it took time and effort out of his day to do it.  Plus, you have to manufacture and install the boilers which is not easy at scale.

Much more feasible at short notice to put in electric heaters and electric water heaters - as long as you can increase the electricity supply to match the new demand.

If you have the electricity to burn I completely agree. But does Germany have surplus electricity (particularly if they lose the 10-12% of their electricity generation that comes from natural gas)? 

Otherwise converting to electric heat would mean trying to recommission nuclear power plants or come up with a way to bring brand new power plants (whether coal, renewable, or something else) from the drawing board to generating power between now and next winter.

Or maybe Germany has a bunch of old decommissioned or standby coal plants? If so, I could see those being easier to reactivate than nuclear plants and a lot cleaner than direct coal heat (although they would probably require burning more coal for the same amount of heat given conversion and transmission losses). In the polar vortex here a couple of years ago we got a crash course in how many old an inefficient coal and fuel oil power plants some US electrical utilities hold on to for true emergencies even though they're generally not economically viable to operate anymore.

[BicycleB]

Our German Minister today announced that he has started the catastrophy plan level 1 (meaning "serious risk of not getting any gas"), which officially sets in motion planning of who to cut off and who not etc.

And at the same time Russia announced that "pay in Rubles" will not start from April 1, that was a misunderstanding. It's something for the future that will happen step by step.

So many coincidences!

Lol.

[gaja]

The electricity grid in Europe is connected. So Germany doesn't have to come up with all that energy on their own. Instead, we will be looking at very high electricity costs all over Europe, including in countries that have decided to not rely on Russian gas. It could cause some tension.

IEA's plan to reduce the dependence on Russina gas is conservative and doable, if we act now. I believe the potential for energy efficiency measures is even larger: https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas

[PDXTabs]

Every time I feel like the Russian government can't disappoint me more something like this happens:

“We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth,” she said. - Reuters: Putin misled by 'yes men' in military afraid to tell him the truth, White House and EU officials say

[Radagast]

People keep wishing horrible deaths on Russian soldiers in Ukraine, and they keep on delivering.

A couple hundred reportedly suffered acute radiation poisoning after literally digging into the most contaminated area around Chernobyl.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1509287796065845250?cxt=HHwWhICyxaDQiPIpAAAA

With commanders like this, who needs enemies?

[Sibley]

People keep wishing horrible deaths on Russian soldiers in Ukraine, and they keep on delivering.

A couple hundred reportedly suffered acute radiation poisoning after literally digging into the most contaminated area around Chernobyl.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1509287796065845250?cxt=HHwWhICyxaDQiPIpAAAA

With commanders like this, who needs enemies?

I saw that. Radiation poisoning isn't pretty, and I haven't heard that we have effective treatments. Those men are likely going to suffer horrible deaths.

[pecunia]

People keep wishing horrible deaths on Russian soldiers in Ukraine, and they keep on delivering.

A couple hundred reportedly suffered acute radiation poisoning after literally digging into the most contaminated area around Chernobyl.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1509287796065845250?cxt=HHwWhICyxaDQiPIpAAAA

With commanders like this, who needs enemies?

I saw that. Radiation poisoning isn't pretty, and I haven't heard that we have effective treatments. Those men are likely going to suffer horrible deaths.

It depends on the dose.  Are they internally contaminated as well as their exposure to radiation?  I was taught the three things important to avoid radiation exposure are time, distance and shielding.   The only thing these soldiers may have going for them is time.   Their exposures may have been brief.

These guys are truly cannon fodder.

[PeteD01]

Let us not forget that Ukraine has several hundred thousand (400k?) veteran reservists with relatively recent combat experience and I understand that 100k have just been called up.
Together with dramatically increased weapons imports from the EU, this translates to a rapidly growing threat for Putin´s military.

This guy seems very knowledgable and confirms that Ukraine had 400k reservists specifically trained unddr combat conditions for operations against a Russian invading force. (minute 10:45)
One of the most puzzling things about this war is the fact that evidence for the weakness of the Russian military, in comparison to the Ukrainian forces, for the scenario of an invasion was pretty obvious and easily available from online sources.
And one did not even need to be an expert to see that the Russian plan was a very long shot and based on the delusion that Ukraine was militarily weak.


Day 35: War in Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcfRRF7JfJQ

[Sibley]

People keep wishing horrible deaths on Russian soldiers in Ukraine, and they keep on delivering.

A couple hundred reportedly suffered acute radiation poisoning after literally digging into the most contaminated area around Chernobyl.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1509287796065845250?cxt=HHwWhICyxaDQiPIpAAAA

With commanders like this, who needs enemies?

I saw that. Radiation poisoning isn't pretty, and I haven't heard that we have effective treatments. Those men are likely going to suffer horrible deaths.

It depends on the dose.  Are they internally contaminated as well as their exposure to radiation?  I was taught the three things important to avoid radiation exposure are time, distance and shielding.   The only thing these soldiers may have going for them is time.   Their exposures may have been brief.

These guys are truly cannon fodder.

Found a bit more information. It doesn't appear that we really know how much radiation they were exposed to. Driving through a cloud of radioactive dust doesn't sound good though.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unprotected-russian-soldiers-disturbed-radioactive-dust-chernobyls-red-forest-2022-03-28/

Also saw in another article that some of the Russian soldiers had never heard of Chernobyl and thus had no idea about the radiation danger. That particular source isn't known to be awesome, but given all the reports of Russians being amazed at such things as paved roads, seems plausible.

[GuitarStv]

People keep wishing horrible deaths on Russian soldiers in Ukraine, and they keep on delivering.

A couple hundred reportedly suffered acute radiation poisoning after literally digging into the most contaminated area around Chernobyl.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1509287796065845250?cxt=HHwWhICyxaDQiPIpAAAA

With commanders like this, who needs enemies?

I saw that. Radiation poisoning isn't pretty, and I haven't heard that we have effective treatments. Those men are likely going to suffer horrible deaths.

It depends on the dose.  Are they internally contaminated as well as their exposure to radiation?  I was taught the three things important to avoid radiation exposure are time, distance and shielding.   The only thing these soldiers may have going for them is time.   Their exposures may have been brief.

These guys are truly cannon fodder.

Found a bit more information. It doesn't appear that we really know how much radiation they were exposed to. Driving through a cloud of radioactive dust doesn't sound good though.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unprotected-russian-soldiers-disturbed-radioactive-dust-chernobyls-red-forest-2022-03-28/

Also saw in another article that some of the Russian soldiers had never heard of Chernobyl and thus had no idea about the radiation danger. That particular source isn't known to be awesome, but given all the reports of Russians being amazed at such things as paved roads, seems plausible.

The soviets didn't care at all about the people in the area when the plant blew under their control, this is not surprising news.

[former player]

The Chernobyl plant blew up in 1986, 36 years ago.  Most of the Russian troops will be late teens/early twenties, and there is no reason why Russian media, in thrall to Putin and his revisionist ideas of Russian history, would make much mention of a failure of the USSR years.

[pecunia]

More meat for the grinder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdRN7RBWDII

Will they send the kids or more experienced soldiers?

[LennStar]

Not to mention that, if the Russians still follow standard preocedure, the soldiers are mostly those NOT from the region. Makes sense from moral POV. You don't want to have order your soldiers to kill their uncle. They might decide that instead of Uncle Wolja, they kill officer shithead.

Still, never heard of the biggest nuclear catatrophe? Even today Germans are warned to not eat much wild boar because they still (can) have a high radiation. (water holes where radioactive stuff was washed in -> mushrooms -> boar meat)

Let us not forget that Ukraine has several hundred thousand (400k?) veteran reservists with relatively recent combat experience and I understand that 100k have just been called up.
Together with dramatically increased weapons imports from the EU, this translates to a rapidly growing threat for Putin´s military.

This guy seems very knowledgable and confirms that Ukraine had 400k reservists specifically trained unddr combat conditions for operations against a Russian invading force. (minute 10:45)
One of the most puzzling things about this war is the fact that the weakness of the Russian military in comparison to the Ukrainian forces for the scenario of an invasion was pretty obvious and easily available from online sources.
And one did not even need to be an expert to see that the Russian plan was a very long shot and based on the delusion that Ukraine was militarily weak.


Day 35: War in Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcfRRF7JfJQ

To be more precise, the Ukrainians have not been "trained", there are 400K once-recruits that have been rotated to the Donbass region where there was a more or less constant low-key war.

You are a lot more veteran (and eager when training) if you have at least seen real shooting or know you are likely to be in one. And some of them have actually killed in their duty.
Compared to akne-faces that have mostly been abused by their seniors that is a whole other level of battle readiness.

[Sibley]

Russia is flip flopping on the gas payments in rubles (again). I'm starting to wonder if there's infighting or something happening, because they don't make sense.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-sets-deadline-rouble-gas-payments-europe-calls-it-blackmail-2022-03-31/

The Russian stock market is moving more towards normal operations, though if I read it right, foreigners can't sell and they're severely limiting some types of activity. I'm sure that's really improving confidence in their market stability. /s

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-30/russia-to-lift-short-selling-ban-on-stocks-expand-trading-hours

And re Chernobyl, given the state of education in the US and how much about US history people don't know, poor peasants from far away not knowing about Chernobyl really isn't a stretch. It is absolutely evidence of lack of compassion or caring from the military leadership to put the soldiers in harm's way and not tell them.

[frugalnacho]

I don't understand why people still keep reporting and believing what the kremlin says.  They lie so consistently it's completely transparent.

"Russia is scaling back the operation and pulling troops out of Kyiv and Kharkiv" - This means they are most certainly NOT doing that, or the reasons for doing so are to ramp up shelling.

"Russia is serious about peace talks and agrees to a cease fire" - This means they are going to break the cease fire and kill civilians.  I mean seriously, how many cease fires need to be broken before people stop trusting Russia?  Have they ever honored a cease fire?

"Russia drafts 134,500 conscripts, but they are not going to Ukraine" - This means they absolutely are going to Ukraine.

[Glenstache]

I don't understand why people still keep reporting and believing what the kremlin says.  They lie so consistently it's completely transparent.

"Russia is scaling back the operation and pulling troops out of Kyiv and Kharkiv" - This means they are most certainly NOT doing that, or the reasons for doing so are to ramp up shelling.

"Russia is serious about peace talks and agrees to a cease fire" - This means they are going to break the cease fire and kill civilians.  I mean seriously, how many cease fires need to be broken before people stop trusting Russia?  Have they ever honored a cease fire?

"Russia drafts 134,500 conscripts, but they are not going to Ukraine" - This means they absolutely are going to Ukraine.

This.
Russian leadership under Putin has long implemented a policy of disinformation and contradictory information. There is generally little benefit to them to speaking truth, so they don't. Having others spend energy guessing is advantageous. This is what is done domestically. This is what was (is) done during the 2016 US presidential election. This is SOP.

[Imma]

Can't Germany start up some of the old nukes?  Could this save burning some Russian gas?  I would think even the Green Party in Germany would understand these are special circumstances.

Eventually maybe? But even with political support and financial resources bringing a decommissioned nuclear reactor back online is not a small or short term undertaking.

It sounds like Germany's plan if Russia cuts off gas is to shut down natural gas using industries to prioritize heating people's homes. I believe a lot of older German homes were originally coal heated (much simpler system to manufacture and deploy than nuclear power plants) and if they can make it to spring a crash course could probably convert a lot of those older buildings back to be coal heated before next winter.

Would suck for air quality (and global warning targets) but better than people dying in the cold and Germany definitely has plenty of coal.

Coal-fired boilers in the home require significant work on the part of the occupier:  ordering coal, having somewhere (coal bunker) to keep it, physical ability to shovel coal into hod and carry it indoors and presence in the home to do that on a regular basis to keep it going.  Compared to turning on a gas tap it's a lot of trouble, there's a significant delay in producing heat/hot water from a standing start, and the frail elderly and disabled can't do it at all - I remember when I was very young my father having to walk down the road before school to fire up the coal-fired boiler of an elderly neighbour and it took time and effort out of his day to do it.  Plus, you have to manufacture and install the boilers which is not easy at scale.

Much more feasible at short notice to put in electric heaters and electric water heaters - as long as you can increase the electricity supply to match the new demand.

Plus if Germans are anything like the Dutch (and they generally are) then back when the transition from coal to gas was made, all traces of the coal infrastructure were taken out of the homes immediately. My own house was built in the 40s and the coal heating was replaced by natural gas probably in the 60s or 70s. They didn't just replace the heater. They took out the whole chimney instead. When digging in the garden a while back I found the foundations to the coal bunker. They immediately demolished that as well.

The energy supply in Europe is interconnected everywhere. So it's not just Germany, it's the entire of Europe that could get in trouble. The best case scenario in the short term is for countries to start up old coal and nuclear facilities again. The other option is electric heating. It's not ideal, but millions of homes have solar panels here. And many of them still heat using natural gas because gas is cheap and convenient and always available. If all those people could try and heat electrically as much as possible, that would reduce the consumption of gas.

We have a natural gas emergency plan but reducing gas use of ordinary people is pretty low on the list. It would be easy though. Let's say we all put our heating at 17 or 18C, and turn it off at night. I know people who keep their homes at 22 or 24C! That's insane. A small number of industries are large users of natural gas. We should just shut them off immediately. Growing flowers in a greenhouse is totally unnecessary.

[Sibley]

I don't understand why people still keep reporting and believing what the kremlin says.  They lie so consistently it's completely transparent.

"Russia is scaling back the operation and pulling troops out of Kyiv and Kharkiv" - This means they are most certainly NOT doing that, or the reasons for doing so are to ramp up shelling.

"Russia is serious about peace talks and agrees to a cease fire" - This means they are going to break the cease fire and kill civilians.  I mean seriously, how many cease fires need to be broken before people stop trusting Russia?  Have they ever honored a cease fire?

"Russia drafts 134,500 conscripts, but they are not going to Ukraine" - This means they absolutely are going to Ukraine.

I don't believe the Kremlin. In fact, I generally believe the opposite. Both of the articles I linked were about things that are easily verifiable. If Russia really doesn't accept non-ruble gas payments tomorrow, then we'll know pretty quickly. And on the stock market, again, will be verifiable. I also included "/s", which means sarcasm. If anyone doesn't know what "/s" means, well, now they have been informed.

I find paying slight attention to what the Kremlin says to be interesting, amusing, and an indicator of what they might do in future (ie, not what they said).

Russia said they won't use nukes a few days ago. That tells me that nukes are absolutely on the table. They said they will cut back on the bombing. That tells me they'll most likely keep bombing.

[pecunia]

It sure seems like Europe should be a ready market for small modular nuclear reactors if they can ever start manufacturing them.

So - These Russian people lie about things like troop pullbacks.  They blow  blow up hospitals, schools, and apartments.  They kidnap people for transit to maybe Siberia to help their demographics.  They roll in with converted Toyota trucks with machine guns welded on the back. (Of course tanks, rocket launchers, and other conventional war machines.)  They surround, cut off water and food to cities and then shell and kill the folks.  They kill and probably rape civilians.  They use these phosphorous bombs on civilian targets.  They fabricate fake news for the consumption of their own population and the world.  They poison those that don't get with the program or they just disappear.  Good thing they are not one of these terrorist organizations, eh?

I haven't heard about the torture thing or cutting people's heads off.  I strongly suspect they do the torture thing.

Imagine what they would be like had they not been a civilized people.

[lemanfan]

In Sweden we have an expression saying "Han ljuger som en häst skenar" ... I guess it can be loosely translated into "He's lying like a horse running away in panic".  That seems appropriate for the Kremlin right now.

In more positive news:  Yesterday I saw news also internationally about that the recent Russian intrusions on Swedish airspace with military jets was carrying nukes.  This has been debunked from sources I deem reliable, the planes used cannot carry the kind of bombs that was claimed to be present. 

[former player]

It sure seems like Europe should be a ready market for small modular nuclear reactors if they can ever start manufacturing them.

So - These Russian people lie about things like troop pullbacks.  They blow  blow up hospitals, schools, and apartments.  They kidnap people for transit to maybe Siberia to help their demographics.  They roll in with converted Toyota trucks with machine guns welded on the back. (Of course tanks, rocket launchers, and other conventional war machines.)  They surround, cut off water and food to cities and then shell and kill the folks.  They kill and probably rape civilians.  They use these phosphorous bombs on civilian targets.  They fabricate fake news for the consumption of their own population and the world.  They poison those that don't get with the program or they just disappear.  Good thing they are not one of these terrorist organizations, eh?

I haven't heard about the torture thing or cutting people's heads off.  I strongly suspect they do the torture thing.

Imagine what they would be like had they not been a civilized people.

I haven't seen anything confirming phosphorus bombs, they have been using phosphorus shells for illumination.

The rapes are confirmed, as is looting.