Well
@Blender Bender good thing Friedman doesn't foresee WWIII until Thanksgiving 2050, and it will happen between most of the Western world + China against the UK, Japan and Germany. I think for the early 2020s Friedman has predicted the total collapse of both Russia and China instead.
Seriously though, there are some interesting ideas in Friedman's work. But as they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
@maizefolk I'm not sure if it's that different for Western Europeans as opposed to Eastern Europeans. Of course, we are much more sheltered from the consequences - 1,5 million Ukrainian people have already fled into neighbouring countries and only a small percentage of them have travelled on to Western Europe. Although it still feels like quite a lot - in one week, dozens of Ukrainian families have arrived in my city already. But, as a Western Europeans, I think we've always had that idea that the Russians were out to get us.
It wasn't too long ago that the Iron Curtain was a couple of hours driving away from the North Sea. Of course, we don't have the experience of living in an Eastern Bloc country that people in, say, Poland have, but I was born a little bit before the collapse of the Berlin Wall, in the Netherlands, and the idea of "the Russians are coming" has always been in the back of my mind. Tensions between Europe and Russia pre-date the Cold War. No one remembers when Russia wasn't a threat. It's always been a when, not an if.
That's very different than my experience of 9/11 (as a European, and still in highschool when it happened, so maybe my experience is flawed). One big issue about 9/11 is that no one saw it coming. The western world was suddenly under attack by an enemy that no one knew they had.
I have a friend from a former Eastern Bloc country who has lived here for a very long time. They've been thinking about potentially moving back home for years but one thing that has stopped them that it's much more dangerous to live there when the Russians come.
@lemanfan Yes, I do believe that this is something that will change our lives for the long-term. In that sense it's a lot like 9/11. I remember having a conversation with a relative when Russia first invaded Ukraine, and we discussed whether in hindsight we'd say that's where WWIII started. We may have been right.
My personal plan has been the Dutch overseas territories for a while (Scandinavia is my climate refugee back-up plan, but too close to Russia right now). The Dutch overseas territories are too remote to be an interesting target for attack by anyone and, being located in the Carribean, an excellent spot to either stay for a longer period or travel on to Canada or the US. Those have always been the traditional safe havens for Europeans since they're just too big to be invaded by a foreign army.
When WWII happened, a lot of wealthy people fled to the UK (and from there some travelled to the US or Canada) from the Netherlands in spring 1940. When Germany invaded in May, for a couple of days people were able to get out of the country, but it would have been extremely hard. After a few days the Germans made that impossible. Physically, due to disability I'm not able to stay and fight for my country. If something happens, I want to be able to get out, and I want to make sure I can get out while I still can. That's why I like having access to money and credit cards in case I have to urgently pack my bags. I have enough money to pay for all of my loved ones to get out.
Topic: Ukraine (Read 772585 times)
