Ukraine

[YttriumNitrate]

Every day they have to decide where to send reinforcements to make the greatest effect. For four days now that line of vehicles hasn't moved. It's not a threat. Meanwhile the Russians keep trying to push into Kyiv from the west and they're gradually pushing from the south of the country and making progress there.

Are you sure it's not a threat? Maybe it's just a coincidence that it stopped 30 km from the city which happens to be the range of artillery .... maybe it's not.

[GuitarStv]

I have to say, this whole Ukraine thing is kinda bumming me out.  It really seems like Putin's going to overrun the country and claim it for Russia.  Bad for Ukraine obviously, but these sanctions are really going to hurt the Russian people . . . so bad for everyone really.  Then there's the question of, now that he's committed to invading and annexing other countries, why stop at Ukraine?  Latvia is right next door too . . .

[pecunia]

Every day they have to decide where to send reinforcements to make the greatest effect. For four days now that line of vehicles hasn't moved. It's not a threat. Meanwhile the Russians keep trying to push into Kyiv from the west and they're gradually pushing from the south of the country and making progress there.

Are you sure it's not a threat? Maybe it's just a coincidence that it stopped 30 km from the city which happens to be the range of artillery .... maybe it's not.

Seems to me if they knock out that convoy, they will take a lot of Russians with it.  The more Russians they kill, the harder it gets for Putin to lie to his people.   The folks back home may be under a military dictatorship, but if enough of them know the truth of what is going on, this war may be resolved.

[YttriumNitrate]

Then there's the question of, now that he's committed to invading and annexing other countries, why stop at Ukraine?  Latvia is right next door too . . .

Latvia is a NATO member.

[OtherJen]

Every day they have to decide where to send reinforcements to make the greatest effect. For four days now that line of vehicles hasn't moved. It's not a threat. Meanwhile the Russians keep trying to push into Kyiv from the west and they're gradually pushing from the south of the country and making progress there.

Are you sure it's not a threat? Maybe it's just a coincidence that it stopped 30 km from the city which happens to be the range of artillery .... maybe it's not.

Seems to me if they knock out that convoy, they will take a lot of Russians with it.  The more Russians they kill, the harder it gets for Putin to lie to his people.   The folks back home may be under a military dictatorship, but if enough of them know the truth of what is going on, this war may be resolved.

As the Kremlin is shutting down all independent media and blocking foreign news websites, Putin can say whatever he wants and probably get away with it. BBC Radio's WWII-era shortwave signals only reach western Russia. Probably Ukraine's tactic of having captured young Russian soldiers call their mothers is the most effective way of getting the news out.

[GuitarStv]

Then there's the question of, now that he's committed to invading and annexing other countries, why stop at Ukraine?  Latvia is right next door too . . .

Latvia is a NATO member.

Yes.

[pecunia]

Finland is not in NATO.  Moldova is not in NATO.

Is this his plan?  Is he saving the best troops for post Ukraine adventures? Will he have created a bunch of Ukrainian terrorists (freedom fighters)

[bacchi]

Finland is not in NATO.  Moldova is not in NATO.

Is this his plan?  Is he saving the best troops for post Ukraine adventures? Will he have created a bunch of Ukrainian terrorists (freedom fighters)

The Belarus Prime Minister dictator accidentally leaked the Moldova plans.

[DarkandStormy]

Finland is not in NATO.  Moldova is not in NATO.

Is this his plan?  Is he saving the best troops for post Ukraine adventures? Will he have created a bunch of Ukrainian terrorists (freedom fighters)

Do...do people really not understand what he's trying to do here?  Messed up as it is, he sees the dissolution of the USSR as the great geopolitical failure of the 20th century.  A handful of neighboring countries have joined NATO, which he views as a threat to Russia.  So in his mind, Ukraine is rightfully Soviet territory.  He started with Crimea and got very little international pushback.  He tested out some strategies in Syria.  Very little international pushback (compared to now, that is).

He views Ukraine is Soviet territory.  I suppose he may want to expand into non-NATO countries to restore most of what was the USSR.

[Blender Bender]

Finland is not in NATO.  Moldova is not in NATO.

Is this his plan?  Is he saving the best troops for post Ukraine adventures? Will he have created a bunch of Ukrainian terrorists (freedom fighters)

Do...do people really not understand what he's trying to do here?  Messed up as it is, he sees the dissolution of the USSR as the great geopolitical failure of the 20th century.  A handful of neighboring countries have joined NATO, which he views as a threat to Russia.  So in his mind, Ukraine is rightfully Soviet territory.  He started with Crimea and got very little international pushback.  He tested out some strategies in Syria.  Very little international pushback (compared to now, that is).

He views Ukraine is Soviet territory.  I suppose he may want to expand into non-NATO countries to restore most of what was the USSR.

Yes, putler will continue. Moldavia next. Then probably Baltics (and WW3 starts).
NATO should continue avoid direct intervention until he comes there.

It is really important meantime to starve putler as much as possible. Starve his economy and everything. Yes, russian citizens will and should suffer meantime (economically). The best hope is that putler is taken away internally. End the starvation when new russia leaders condemn putler and his regime 100%. The new regime must condemn the whole concept of russian imperialism. Not just face change.
This probably will take years.

Regarding Finland. It would take some time for putler to prepare the offensive there. I think that if Finland sees it, it will urgently ask for NATO membership, and it will be granted swiftly. So, Moldavia, then Latvia...

[YttriumNitrate]

Finland is not in NATO.  Moldova is not in NATO.
Is this his plan?  Is he saving the best troops for post Ukraine adventures? Will he have created a bunch of Ukrainian terrorists (freedom fighters)

Historically, major invasions into Russia tend to be through Belarus, Poland, Ukraine, etc. rather than Finland. So, my guess would be that the Finns will be left alone. Moldova is a different matter.

[GuitarStv]

Finland is not in NATO.  Moldova is not in NATO.

Is this his plan?  Is he saving the best troops for post Ukraine adventures? Will he have created a bunch of Ukrainian terrorists (freedom fighters)

Do...do people really not understand what he's trying to do here?  Messed up as it is, he sees the dissolution of the USSR as the great geopolitical failure of the 20th century.  A handful of neighboring countries have joined NATO, which he views as a threat to Russia.  So in his mind, Ukraine is rightfully Soviet territory.  He started with Crimea and got very little international pushback.  He tested out some strategies in Syria.  Very little international pushback (compared to now, that is).

He views Ukraine is Soviet territory.  I suppose he may want to expand into non-NATO countries to restore most of what was the USSR.

Yes, putler will continue. Moldavia next. Then probably Baltics (and WW3 starts).
NATO should continue avoid direct intervention until he comes there.

It is really important meantime to starve putler as much as possible. Starve his economy and everything. Yes, russian citizens will and should suffer meantime (economically). The best hope is that putler is taken away internally. End the starvation when new russia leaders condemn putler and his regime 100%. The new regime must condemn the whole concept of russian imperialism. Not just face change.
This probably will take years.

Seems like that starvation approach doesn't really work though.  At least it doesn't seem to have with North Korea . . . we've been starving them forever.  Doesn't seem to have made the Kim's any less fat.

[Blender Bender]

Seems like that starvation approach doesn't really work though.  At least it doesn't seem to have with North Korea . . . we've been starving them forever.  Doesn't seem to have made the Kim's any less fat.

Right, but i don't see other way. Putler is afraid of his own people (more than Kim). The starvation goal is for russian people (and oligarchs) to remove him. In NK people never seen living normal live in history. Many russians want to live 21 century way. So, i hope that there is some difference here.

Plus obviously continue to support Ukraine with weapons, and in any other way excluding direct NATO involvement.
So, the starvation, and russia bleeding in Ukraine war, for months, years to come.

[former player]

Seems like that starvation approach doesn't really work though.  At least it doesn't seem to have with North Korea . . . we've been starving them forever.  Doesn't seem to have made the Kim's any less fat.

Right, but i don't see other way. Putler is afraid of his own people (more than Kim). The starvation goal is for russian people (and oligarchs) to remove him. In NK people never seen living normal live in history. Many russians want to live 21 century way. So, i hope that there is some difference here.

Plus obviously continue to support Ukraine with weapons, and in any other way excluding direct NATO involvement.
So, the starvation, and russia bleeding in Ukraine war, for months, years to come.

Putin has turned Russia into a place where even saying the word "war" can get you sent to prison.  All outside sources of information are being cut off, and even with those available most Russians still believed what they were being told by State television and newspapers.  The ones who didn't, and who protested, have been vanished into the gulags.

Some Russians who see what's happening and can are getting out: across the border to Finland or on planes to points south, I wouldn't bet against Putin closing the borders to that sooner rather than later.

The chances of the Russian people successfully rising up against a dictator as ruthless and powerful as Putin currently is are nil.

[Blender Bender]

Seems like that starvation approach doesn't really work though.  At least it doesn't seem to have with North Korea . . . we've been starving them forever.  Doesn't seem to have made the Kim's any less fat.

Right, but i don't see other way. Putler is afraid of his own people (more than Kim). The starvation goal is for russian people (and oligarchs) to remove him. In NK people never seen living normal live in history. Many russians want to live 21 century way. So, i hope that there is some difference here.

Plus obviously continue to support Ukraine with weapons, and in any other way excluding direct NATO involvement.
So, the starvation, and russia bleeding in Ukraine war, for months, years to come.

Putin has turned Russia into a place where even saying the word "war" can get you sent to prison.  All outside sources of information are being cut off, and even with those available most Russians still believed what they were being told by State television and newspapers.  The ones who didn't, and who protested, have been vanished into the gulags.

Some Russians who see what's happening and can are getting out: across the border to Finland or on planes to points south, I wouldn't bet against Putin closing the borders to that sooner rather than later.

The chances of the Russian people successfully rising up against a dictator as ruthless and powerful as Putin currently is are nil.

Look at his army. A low morale. Even some higher ranking taking Ukrainian side. The rotting already started. The process will not be quick.
A flood of dead soldiers, think about Afghanistan. That war was the starting moment of soviets collapsing.

[Sibley]

For a guy who's living in a series of underground bunkers, Zelensky sure does get out there.

https://www.facebook.com/zelenskiy.official
The zoom has translation on it - I believe it was projected (live?) to large gatherings in Europe. Honestly, too lazy to figure out the details.

The video posted about 4:30pm today (Central time) has subtitles, and he's pissed at NATO for not closing the airspace.

If anyone happens to have links to transcripts or translation to the video posted before the Zoom, please share. I haven't found one yet.

Edit: Looks like the zoom was to Prague?

[Blender Bender]

I do hope that the war has some long term silver lining. I know that it sounds awful.

1. Western fascination of putler (read aggressive russia) will be eliminated (some republicans, Germany, Hungary, extreme right/left wing European inteligencia)
2. The elimination of fossil fuels dependency will be accelerated.
3. China needs to rethink how to confront the west. The putler aggressive way not working.
4. Turkey will shift more away from russia.
5. Bitcoin will be crashed by US government since putler will use BTC to avoid some sanctions.
6. NATO has strong reason to continue its existence.
7. USA and Europe back together.
8. And the list can go on.

I was hoping before that Covid would be such cathartic, but i guess more is needed for the world to fix itself. 

[partgypsy]

I honestly believe the next steps are:

1) Massive counter-offensive of social media/trying to turn the narrative and try to discredit Ukraine's efforts (I'm already seeing the first shimmers of that - it depends whether it'll get any credence outside crazed US evangelicals/QAnons/Trumpskis)
2) Groznyfication of Kyiv and other cities (wider use of thermobaric, so-called "vacuum" bombs and massive artillery strikes on civilian infrastructure, cutting off utilities etc)
3) Cutting off internet and spreading fake news (such as that Ukraine has "surrendered")
4) Starvation of the population
5) Continued hunt of the president and his wife/children (this has been ongoing from the start) to kill them

wow you have been pretty spot on. Looks like 1-3 has happened or is happening.

[Sibley]

Here is a military historian's take on this:

https://acoup.blog/2022/02/25/miscellanea-understanding-the-war-in-ukraine/

Not that it changes what to do, but it is nice to understand why things happen.

The same blogger has a new post that is interesting, discussing how weaker parties can win against stronger ones.
https://acoup.blog/2022/03/03/collections-how-the-weak-can-win-a-primer-on-protracted-war/

Edit:
Ok, I've read that post twice now. This matches the instinct that I've had (which frankly, is probably bs cause I've got zero military ability, but still) that Russia can take Ukraine but they can't hold it. And yes, that song linked is catchy and stuck in my head and I really don't like that. But its clever.

[Travis]

Every day they have to decide where to send reinforcements to make the greatest effect. For four days now that line of vehicles hasn't moved. It's not a threat. Meanwhile the Russians keep trying to push into Kyiv from the west and they're gradually pushing from the south of the country and making progress there.

Are you sure it's not a threat? Maybe it's just a coincidence that it stopped 30 km from the city which happens to be the range of artillery .... maybe it's not.

Its less of a threat today than the tanks that are actually moving and taking ground. Wrecking that concentration of vehicles would be amazing, but that's a tomorrow problem.  Today Ukraine is still giving ground in the south.

[Travis]

I was a convoy commander for a 1,300-mile convoy to go to a training site several years ago. Out of 20ish vehicles at least 5-6 had breakdowns and a couple ended up having to be towed. And that was frankly a better result than average. For some units even going 30-40 miles they will probably have at least one vehicle breakdown.

2SCR? I was in Graf just before you guys rolled out. One of my NCOs spent an afternoon with one of your battalions giving radio classes.

[pecunia]

How does a government pacify a populace?  The Romans did it long ago with bread and circuses.

Will the sanctions sow enough discord? Russia is rather self sufficient in the food category.  Hunger has toppled rulers in the past.  It doesn't look applicable here.

Will the sanctions cause unemployment and thus idle time?  The idle mind is the devil's playground.  They won't have international sports any more, but there must be intercity rivalries in Russia.  Will the Russians see much of a drop in living standards with the sanctions?  I wouldn't think the loss of imported luxury goods would be enough.

The guys on top do not seem to be the type to respect the rule of law.  Maybe the loss of part of their fortunes will be enough for them to displace Putin.

This country put up with Stalin for many years.  He was a nasty piece of work.  They do not really have a democratic tradition.

[Sibley]

Good news! We need good news, so here is some good news. Any good news, no matter how trivial, is still good news.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lions-tigers-driven-out-ukraine-safety-polish-zoo-2022-03-03/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A%20Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR39uu0H4DTqHDs2zu2szLxKFwv_ObcSknU0W_O1XmaDjstZ4rsT1AOkgb4

(Yes, I like animals more than people.)

[Blender Bender]

Good news! We need good news, so here is some good news. Any good news, no matter how trivial, is still good news.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lions-tigers-driven-out-ukraine-safety-polish-zoo-2022-03-03/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A%20Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR39uu0H4DTqHDs2zu2szLxKFwv_ObcSknU0W_O1XmaDjstZ4rsT1AOkgb4

(Yes, I like animals more than people.)

I don’t like people. I like robots 🤖

[Sibley]

Good news! We need good news, so here is some good news. Any good news, no matter how trivial, is still good news.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lions-tigers-driven-out-ukraine-safety-polish-zoo-2022-03-03/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A%20Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR39uu0H4DTqHDs2zu2szLxKFwv_ObcSknU0W_O1XmaDjstZ4rsT1AOkgb4

(Yes, I like animals more than people.)

I don’t like people. I like robots 🤖

Then you must like cats at least, since the robot vacuums seem to adore giving cats rides around the house.  lol

[dang1]

Putin indiscriminately bombing civilians pretty much deserves "Putler"

[Sibley]

I do hope that the war has some long term silver lining. I know that it sounds awful.

1. Western fascination of putler (read aggressive russia) will be eliminated (some republicans, Germany, Hungary, extreme right/left wing European inteligencia)
2. The elimination of fossil fuels dependency will be accelerated.
3. China needs to rethink how to confront the west. The putler aggressive way not working.
4. Turkey will shift more away from russia.
5. Bitcoin will be crashed by US government since putler will use BTC to avoid some sanctions.
6. NATO has strong reason to continue its existence.
7. USA and Europe back together.
8. And the list can go on.

I was hoping before that Covid would be such cathartic, but i guess more is needed for the world to fix itself.

@Blender Bender
Just in case you're interested in people actually reading your posts.
After the 5th time you used the juvenile "putler" I decided not to read anything else you wrote.
The first time it made your point, after that it's annoying.

MoseyingAlong, then I recommend you stay off social media entirely, because I'm seeing Putin referred to as "Putler" widely. I'm seeing it on Twitter, Reddit, and Facebook, in addition to here. Those are all the sites I'm on at all. Not exclusively, no, and not by "official" people (usually). But its common.

[Michael in ABQ]

I was a convoy commander for a 1,300-mile convoy to go to a training site several years ago. Out of 20ish vehicles at least 5-6 had breakdowns and a couple ended up having to be towed. And that was frankly a better result than average. For some units even going 30-40 miles they will probably have at least one vehicle breakdown.

2SCR? I was in Graf just before you guys rolled out. One of my NCOs spent an afternoon with one of your battalions giving radio classes.

National Guard, JRTC. About 10 years ago.

[Travis]

I was a convoy commander for a 1,300-mile convoy to go to a training site several years ago. Out of 20ish vehicles at least 5-6 had breakdowns and a couple ended up having to be towed. And that was frankly a better result than average. For some units even going 30-40 miles they will probably have at least one vehicle breakdown.

2SCR? I was in Graf just before you guys rolled out. One of my NCOs spent an afternoon with one of your battalions giving radio classes.

National Guard, JRTC. About 10 years ago.

They made you road march to JRTC instead of rail load? Oof.

I was in Germany when 2SCR drove a big circuit around Poland and the Baltics as a show of force to Russia. It was also a good lesson in maintenance and planning for everyone involved.

[Michael in ABQ]

I was a convoy commander for a 1,300-mile convoy to go to a training site several years ago. Out of 20ish vehicles at least 5-6 had breakdowns and a couple ended up having to be towed. And that was frankly a better result than average. For some units even going 30-40 miles they will probably have at least one vehicle breakdown.

2SCR? I was in Graf just before you guys rolled out. One of my NCOs spent an afternoon with one of your battalions giving radio classes.

National Guard, JRTC. About 10 years ago.

They made you road march to JRTC instead of rail load? Oof.

I was in Germany when 2SCR drove a big circuit around Poland and the Baltics as a show of force to Russia. It was also a good lesson in maintenance and planning for everyone involved.

I went to a Unit Movement Officer Course and was the only National Guard Soldier in the class (rest were active duty). Convoys were barely mentioned as the assumption was everything would move via rail or line-haul (loaded on commercial flatbed trucks). It was a bit of an eye-opener realizing that even with motor pool Mondays active-duty units were having vehicles break down just driving to the range 30-40 miles away and we routinely drove a few hundred miles for a drill weekend.


A broken-down vehicle is lost just as much as one blown up by enemy fire. The Russians are definitely learning this the hard way.

Per the latest update from Oryx (tracking every vehicle loss through open-source intelligence) Russia - 661, of which: destroyed: 268, damaged: 10, abandoned: 141, captured: 241

So that's over 20% of their vehicle losses from breakdowns or running out of fuel. Literally hundreds of millions of dollars of vehicles abandoned or captured.

[Travis]

And Oryx's numbers are based on what has been photographed, so the bare minimum. The Ukrainian government is claiming three times that number.



In case anybody wanted to get a closer look at the convoy stuck north of Kyiv.  They've been there long enough that any supplies they brought to distribute to other forces have probably been consumed by them.

https://twitter.com/kamerknc/status/1499622026755117056


Today was a bad day for the Russian Air Force. Four Five attack jets, three helicopters, and a UAV. All brought down by shoulder-launched missiles.

[dang1]

a Ukraine twitter list https://twitter.com/i/lists/101285580

[partgypsy]

I do feel terribly for what is happening, and helpless. Russia doesn't have a good track record for sparing civilians during wartime. I think it's to be expected there will be widespread human rights abuses on the Russian side. 
https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1010764/putins-brutal-record-in-chechnya-and-syria-is-ominous-for-ukraine

[englishteacheralex]

I have a really dumb and possibly insensitive question.

What happens to Ukrainians who lose their homes through Russian shelling/bombing? Those bombed out apartment buildings--were they state owned? Or did civilians own them? Insurance doesn't cover acts of war, I think (I did some googling). Are they just SOL?

The situation of the refugees is very sad when watched on the news, but I'm trying to think through the full implications of what is happening to them. Am I correct in assuming they are essentially losing everything except whatever they have in the bank?

[jnw]

Just read today USA sent Ukraine hundreds of these Stinger Anti-Aircraft shoulder launchers.  Watched a great video on them demonstrating how to use them.. amazing tech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0nuhI05QyA

I love how at 1:30 the missile drastically alters course the last couple seconds to hit target.

And here is a video of a Russian helicopter being shot down by what appears to be one of these Stinger missiles we sent the Ukranians.  Notice how the missile guides itself up and down track anti-uv target.  Looks ljust like the video I saw the other day demo'ing the stinger.  This is awesome.  I hope they shoot down all Russian aircraft with these.  https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/05/ukrainian-armed-forces-share-video-showing-russian-helicopter-being-shot-down-ndwknd-vpx.cnn

[pecunia]

I have a really dumb and possibly insensitive question.

What happens to Ukrainians who lose their homes through Russian shelling/bombing? Those bombed out apartment buildings--were they state owned? Or did civilians own them? Insurance doesn't cover acts of war, I think (I did some googling). Are they just SOL?

The situation of the refugees is very sad when watched on the news, but I'm trying to think through the full implications of what is happening to them. Am I correct in assuming they are essentially losing everything except whatever they have in the bank?

Asking a question like that sends the opposite message.  It shows sensitivity.  It's a war.  There are people who lose everything, including their lives.  It's been like that since the dawn of time.

[The 585]

I was a convoy commander for a 1,300-mile convoy to go to a training site several years ago. Out of 20ish vehicles at least 5-6 had breakdowns and a couple ended up having to be towed. And that was frankly a better result than average. For some units even going 30-40 miles they will probably have at least one vehicle breakdown.

2SCR? I was in Graf just before you guys rolled out. One of my NCOs spent an afternoon with one of your battalions giving radio classes.

National Guard, JRTC. About 10 years ago.

They made you road march to JRTC instead of rail load? Oof.

I was in Germany when 2SCR drove a big circuit around Poland and the Baltics as a show of force to Russia. It was also a good lesson in maintenance and planning for everyone involved.

Not to butt in and I should probably PM you instead, but it's Ukraine related and maybe @Michael in ABQ has input too. I'm currently stateside but last month accepted a job (contractor) in Germany prior to this whole conflict starting. Now I'm worried that it's a bad time to move there because it might have a big impact on quality of life... especially if/when it grows and NATO gets involved. Would you guys still take an assignment in Germany, or Europe in general in this environment?

[Sibley]

THOSE FUCKING BASTARDS.

There was a ceasefire in Mariupol, so that civilians could evacuate. Except that Russia didn't ceasefire. They started shelling the gathering points for the evacuating civilians. Specifically those spots. I haven't seen a death count, but I did see that 2000 were attempting to evacuate.

https://twitter.com/lfrayer/status/1500097201732829194?t=ERCfTbgA7tG5wkV5_Dp1fg&s=19
https://twitter.com/PaulaChertok/status/1500129586117427201?t=QDf5r7eFFtpT5kb83uixWQ&s=19

I hope Putin burns in hell.

[former player]

I was a convoy commander for a 1,300-mile convoy to go to a training site several years ago. Out of 20ish vehicles at least 5-6 had breakdowns and a couple ended up having to be towed. And that was frankly a better result than average. For some units even going 30-40 miles they will probably have at least one vehicle breakdown.

2SCR? I was in Graf just before you guys rolled out. One of my NCOs spent an afternoon with one of your battalions giving radio classes.

National Guard, JRTC. About 10 years ago.

They made you road march to JRTC instead of rail load? Oof.

I was in Germany when 2SCR drove a big circuit around Poland and the Baltics as a show of force to Russia. It was also a good lesson in maintenance and planning for everyone involved.

Not to butt in and I should probably PM you instead, but it's Ukraine related and maybe @Michael in ABQ has input too. I'm currently stateside but last month accepted a job (contractor) in Germany prior to this whole conflict starting. Now I'm worried that it's a bad time to move there because it might have a big impact on quality of life... especially if/when it grows and NATO gets involved. Would you guys still take an assignment in Germany, or Europe in general in this environment?

Germany is one of the safe places that Ukrainians are emigrating to.  And none of the 80 million Germans are going anywhere at the moment.  (Nor are any of the 200 million other citizens of the EU.)

If Germany isn't safe it's because WWiII has gone nuclear and we're all done for.

[Nate79]

Putler is a fitting name for the war criminal Putin to all except Russian apologists. I predict we are headed to war one way or another in the not too distant future.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[former player]

I have a really dumb and possibly insensitive question.

What happens to Ukrainians who lose their homes through Russian shelling/bombing? Those bombed out apartment buildings--were they state owned? Or did civilians own them? Insurance doesn't cover acts of war, I think (I did some googling). Are they just SOL?

The situation of the refugees is very sad when watched on the news, but I'm trying to think through the full implications of what is happening to them. Am I correct in assuming they are essentially losing everything except whatever they have in the bank?

President Zelensky has promised to rebuild with reparations from Russia.  I'm not sure how realistic that is, and the precedent after WWI of requiring reparations from Germany is not a happy one.

But there are very significant sums being confiscated from the assets of Russian billionaires held outside Russia.  Depending on the laws of the country doing the confiscating those sums might be returned to Ukraine for rebuilding.

After WWII the UK government compensated those who had lost property through German bombing.  But it took years to pay the compensation and decades to do the rebuilding - there were bomb sites where no reconstruction had taken place well into the 1960s, and arguably the shortage of housing caused through wartime losses has left us behind the curve in house building ever since and so contributed to current high costs.

I think it's highly likely that a significant proportion of the people leaving Ukraine because of the war will not go back for many years, if ever, so depopulation  may be a factor too - although that could make economic recovery even harder.

[The 585]

I was a convoy commander for a 1,300-mile convoy to go to a training site several years ago. Out of 20ish vehicles at least 5-6 had breakdowns and a couple ended up having to be towed. And that was frankly a better result than average. For some units even going 30-40 miles they will probably have at least one vehicle breakdown.

2SCR? I was in Graf just before you guys rolled out. One of my NCOs spent an afternoon with one of your battalions giving radio classes.

National Guard, JRTC. About 10 years ago.

They made you road march to JRTC instead of rail load? Oof.

I was in Germany when 2SCR drove a big circuit around Poland and the Baltics as a show of force to Russia. It was also a good lesson in maintenance and planning for everyone involved.

Not to butt in and I should probably PM you instead, but it's Ukraine related and maybe @Michael in ABQ has input too. I'm currently stateside but last month accepted a job (contractor) in Germany prior to this whole conflict starting. Now I'm worried that it's a bad time to move there because it might have a big impact on quality of life... especially if/when it grows and NATO gets involved. Would you guys still take an assignment in Germany, or Europe in general in this environment?

Germany is one of the safe places that Ukrainians are emigrating to.  And none of the 80 million Germans are going anywhere at the moment.  (Nor are any of the 200 million other citizens of the EU.)

If Germany isn't safe it's because WWiII has gone nuclear and we're all done for.

Yeah that's a big fear I have... but you're right, at that point it doesn't really matter where you are.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

THOSE FUCKING BASTARDS.

There was a ceasefire in Mariupol, so that civilians could evacuate. Except that Russia didn't ceasefire. They started shelling the gathering points for the evacuating civilians. Specifically those spots. I haven't seen a death count, but I did see that 2000 were attempting to evacuate.

https://twitter.com/lfrayer/status/1500097201732829194?t=ERCfTbgA7tG5wkV5_Dp1fg&s=19
https://twitter.com/PaulaChertok/status/1500129586117427201?t=QDf5r7eFFtpT5kb83uixWQ&s=19

I hope Putin burns in hell.

I saw this, and it's just insane. I mean, this makes no strategic or military sense that I'm aware of. It's one (very evil) thing to not care about civilian casualties as you're trying to destroy the other nation's military. This is a whole other level. What on earth does he think something like this will accomplish.....

[former player]

THOSE FUCKING BASTARDS.

There was a ceasefire in Mariupol, so that civilians could evacuate. Except that Russia didn't ceasefire. They started shelling the gathering points for the evacuating civilians. Specifically those spots. I haven't seen a death count, but I did see that 2000 were attempting to evacuate.

https://twitter.com/lfrayer/status/1500097201732829194?t=ERCfTbgA7tG5wkV5_Dp1fg&s=19
https://twitter.com/PaulaChertok/status/1500129586117427201?t=QDf5r7eFFtpT5kb83uixWQ&s=19

I hope Putin burns in hell.

I saw this, and it's just insane. I mean, this makes no strategic or military sense that I'm aware of. It's one (very evil) thing to not care about civilian casualties as you're trying to destroy the other nation's military. This is a whole other level. What on earth does he think something like this will accomplish.....

It could be that some of the Russian units operating in Ukraine are in separate command structures - there seem to have been a lot of saboteur units embedded before the war started, for instance.  It's possible that a negotiated cease fire with some Russian forces isn't communicated to or agreed by other Russian forces.

Or it's a deliberate and organised terror tactic, of course.  Which seems entirely plausible, in the circumstances.

[Blackeagle]

Putler is a fitting name for the war criminal Putin to all except Russian apologists.

Given the way devastation in Ukraine is ramping up, I suspect Putin’s own name will soon be an epithet like few others in history.

[Blender Bender]

Putler is a fitting name for the war criminal Putin to all except Russian apologists.

Given the way devastation in Ukraine is ramping up, I suspect Putin’s own name will soon be an epithet like few others in history.

trumps admires putler deeply. Calling the attack on Ukraine genius and brilliant. And actually looking happy saying that.
So, trump fits the few monsters of 20 century. Just vote for him again and see him in action.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/22/trump-reacts-putins-invasion-ukraine-exactly-youd-expect/
Please, whoever is votable, don't vote for him.

[Nate79]

Putler is a fitting name for the war criminal Putin to all except Russian apologists.

Given the way devastation in Ukraine is ramping up, I suspect Putin’s own name will soon be an epithet like few others in history.

trumps admires putler deeply. Calling the attack on Ukraine genius and brilliant. And actually looking happy saying that.
So, trump fits the few monsters of 20 century. Just vote for him again and see him in action.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/22/trump-reacts-putins-invasion-ukraine-exactly-youd-expect/
Please, whoever is votable, don't vote for him.

Who cares? What does that have to do with anything anyone was talking about?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[SunnyDays]

THOSE FUCKING BASTARDS.

There was a ceasefire in Mariupol, so that civilians could evacuate. Except that Russia didn't ceasefire. They started shelling the gathering points for the evacuating civilians. Specifically those spots. I haven't seen a death count, but I did see that 2000 were attempting to evacuate.

https://twitter.com/lfrayer/status/1500097201732829194?t=ERCfTbgA7tG5wkV5_Dp1fg&s=19
https://twitter.com/PaulaChertok/status/1500129586117427201?t=QDf5r7eFFtpT5kb83uixWQ&s=19

I hope Putin burns in hell.

I saw this, and it's just insane. I mean, this makes no strategic or military sense that I'm aware of. It's one (very evil) thing to not care about civilian casualties as you're trying to destroy the other nation's military. This is a whole other level. What on earth does he think something like this will accomplish.....

It could be that some of the Russian units operating in Ukraine are in separate command structures - there seem to have been a lot of saboteur units embedded before the war started, for instance.  It's possible that a negotiated cease fire with some Russian forces isn't communicated to or agreed by other Russian forces.

Or it's a deliberate and organised terror tactic, of course.  Which seems entirely plausible, in the circumstances.

When I heard about gathering points for evacuation, my first thought was that it would turn the people into sitting ducks.  I would not be surprised if that was Russia’s intent from the start.  From their point of view, why wouldn’t they want to kill as many resistors as possible?  They would see it as payback for refusing to submit.

[Blender Bender]

Putler is a fitting name for the war criminal Putin to all except Russian apologists.

Given the way devastation in Ukraine is ramping up, I suspect Putin’s own name will soon be an epithet like few others in history.

trumps admires putler deeply. Calling the attack on Ukraine genius and brilliant. And actually looking happy saying that.
So, trump fits the few monsters of 20 century. Just vote for him again and see him in action.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/22/trump-reacts-putins-invasion-ukraine-exactly-youd-expect/
Please, whoever is votable, don't vote for him.

Who cares? What does that have to do with anything anyone was talking about?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

OK, sounds you strongly think that trump is not coming back to the office ever (going to jail instead). Then i agree, who cares.

[Nate79]

Putler is a fitting name for the war criminal Putin to all except Russian apologists.

Given the way devastation in Ukraine is ramping up, I suspect Putin’s own name will soon be an epithet like few others in history.

trumps admires putler deeply. Calling the attack on Ukraine genius and brilliant. And actually looking happy saying that.
So, trump fits the few monsters of 20 century. Just vote for him again and see him in action.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/22/trump-reacts-putins-invasion-ukraine-exactly-youd-expect/
Please, whoever is votable, don't vote for him.

Who cares? What does that have to do with anything anyone was talking about?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

OK, sounds you strongly think that trump is not coming back to the office ever (going to jail instead). Then i agree, who cares.

Except for an unhealthy obsession why are you bringing up Trump in relation to the Ukraine war which is happening now? Even if he were to win the next election are you implying the war will go the next 3 years?

I surely hope not. I hope it's done well before that. If it's not we have a lot to worry about.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk