Ukraine

[GuitarStv]

I find Tucker Carlson to be a revolting and terrible human being, but don't support sanctioning him, restricting his travel, or whatever.  That seems ridiculous and heavy handed.

[maizefolk]

I find Tucker Carlson to be a revolting and terrible human being, but don't support sanctioning him, restricting his travel, or whatever.  That seems ridiculous and heavy handed.

We don't always agree on everything, but I'm on the same side of this one.

What Carlson is doing is stupid, harmful, and a whole lot of other adjectives. But I still believe the remedy for bad speech is more (good) speech, not travel blocks or other sanctions.

[techwiz]

What Carlson is doing is stupid, harmful, and a whole lot of other adjectives. But I still believe the remedy for bad speech is more (good) speech, not travel blocks or other sanctions.

Very much agree. I really wish the people consuming the bad speech would be open and could hear the good speech which is the remedy. That's one of the biggest problems we have with the echo chambers that many live in this digital world.

[Just Joe]

TC has spread so many lies over the years I'd be plenty happy for him to be off the public stage forever.

He's been just as dangerous to the poorly informed as Trump and the rest of Trump's traveling circus. I don't wish any violence upon TC but a few months stuck in a Russian jail might give him a chance to reflect on his life. Unknown whether there would be any change in TC's demeanor.

Considering others journalists have been wrongly imprisoned in Russia (currently two come to mind), it might not be an impossible scenario however unlikely since TC sides with Putin.

I've witnessed the effects of Fox, Trump, TC, Bannon, etc on real people's lives and their families in my part of the country. These people seldom face the consequences of their rumor/conspiracy mongering. I know of people who followed the guidance of people like this and lost their lives during COVID. And what that did to their families.

Free speech is important. I very mixed feelings on people's right to spread BS though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson#Political_views

[jinga nation]

Dennis Rodman cuddles with a dictator who has killed millions... where are the calls for sanctions.

Dennis Rodman hasn't tried to undermine US democracy. Tucker has and continues to sow dissension and utter lies in the name of free speech.

My conspiracy-sense is telling me Tucker went there as he was ordered to; there's some kompromat on him.
Also, he might not back it back to the land of stars and stripes. Maybe he'll shack up with Steven Seagal.

Free speech is important. I very mixed feelings on people's right to spread BS though.

Definitely. But that doesn't mean one is immune from the consequences. #FAFO

[Travis]

In other news, Zalensky relieved General Zaluzhni as the Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. No specific reasons why other than he's shaking up the entire defense team. Plenty of rumors about disagreements they've had recently regarding strategic direction and mobilization.  His replacement is General Syrskyi who was the commander of Ukrainian ground forces who comes with his own PR baggage (not imaginative, hey diddle diddle straight up the middle tactics, not liked by the rank and file).

[LennStar]

I think that is a bad move. I would guess it's Selensky getting anxious because of the ever dire situation on the front.

[ChpBstrd]

I suspect the dynamic is something like:

POLITICIANS: We cannot maintain public support without some offensive gains!

SOLDIERS: But we're winning the war with defense, inflicting a multiple of kills on the enemy versus what they inflict upon us simply by defending the ground we hold. And the last time we went on offensive, we suffered heavier losses than the Russians and got mired in minefields.

POLITICIANS: Yea, but going on the offensive is popular. It makes it look like we're winning.

SOLDIERS: But we literally are winning, by playing defense. As Russia sends human wave attacks, we reduce their capacity and will to fight every day. Why would we copy their failed tactics.

POLITICIANS: I need this war won in 6 months.

SOLDIERS: Do you realize the impact on already-low morale if you tell these guys who have been on the front lines for most of the past 2 years, and who haven't seen a warm shower in 6 months, that they have to do something stupid which will probably get them all killed?

POLITICIANS: Six. Months.

[pecunia]

So - The Putin interview is out.  The rhetoric did not vary much from the Propaganda.  I wonder if there will be a lot of rebuttals given.  It may need to be done piecemeal because the interview was so long.

Mangled history, fear of NATO and imaginary Nazis - lots of same old same old.

[LennStar]

So - The Putin interview is out.  The rhetoric did not vary much from the Propaganda.  I wonder if there will be a lot of rebuttals given.  It may need to be done piecemeal because the interview was so long.

Mangled history, fear of NATO and imaginary Nazis - lots of same old same old.

What did you expect? Putin does not have the imagination to invent a new history every 6 month. And that is good, he should let the novelists etc. do this. They do better worldbuilding.

Tucker Carlson gave Putin a nice Agitprop platform and that is all. Whoever expected otherwise is stupid, and whoever get's enraged by this for days is even more stupid.

[fuzzy math]

I watched the whole thing. At the end of 2+ hours he asked for Evan Gershkovich the WSJ reporter to be released. He pressed Putin on it repeatedly. He pressed Putin repeatedly on negotiating a settlement with Ukraine. Putin put forth some willingness for terms to both. Now that those terms are out in the public sphere I'm hopeful something will come of them.

[reeshau]

I don't expect Putin to negotiate for Russia's withdrawal.  Rather, a kind of Armistice / cease fire, at current boundaries, with international sanctions lifted.  Then, he can consolidate his hold on current territories and rebuild his army for a number of years, until he tries again, in Ukraine or somewhere else.

Would the Russian public buy such a deal as a victory?  Could Putin declare Ukraine is "denatzified"?  Whatever the pace is, I expect NATO countries would continue to arm Ukraine, as well.  While the Russian media will of course say what the Kremlin wants, the true count of Russian casualties will become known among friends and family, at least.  Maybe that will start to uncover the lies.

I don't see any lasting peace in this arrangement.  But I also hardly see lasting peace in any other arrangement.  Maybe simply a break in hostilities will be the best that can be hoped for?

[pecunia]

I don't expect Putin to negotiate for Russia's withdrawal.  Rather, a kind of Armistice / cease fire, at current boundaries, with international sanctions lifted.  Then, he can consolidate his hold on current territories and rebuild his army for a number of years, until he tries again, in Ukraine or somewhere else.

Would the Russian public buy such a deal as a victory?  Could Putin declare Ukraine is "denatzified"?  Whatever the pace is, I expect NATO countries would continue to arm Ukraine, as well.  While the Russian media will of course say what the Kremlin wants, the true count of Russian casualties will become known among friends and family, at least.  Maybe that will start to uncover the lies.

I don't see any lasting peace in this arrangement.  But I also hardly see lasting peace in any other arrangement.  Maybe simply a break in hostilities will be the best that can be hoped for?

I wonder if the Russian public really cares how this ends.  They have the problem of no heat in some areas.  I think this is an example of concerns that certainly exceed government labeled Nazis in a foreign country.  Many have fled that country.  Many have died.  Maybe, they just want things to get back to "normal."

[Cawl]

In other news, Zalensky relieved General Zaluzhni as the Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. No specific reasons why other than he's shaking up the entire defense team. Plenty of rumors about disagreements they've had recently regarding strategic direction and mobilization.  His replacement is General Syrskyi who was the commander of Ukrainian ground forces who comes with his own PR baggage (not imaginative, hey diddle diddle straight up the middle tactics, not liked by the rank and file).

Speculation from my news sources is that allegedly:
1. Zaluzhni was aligned with western factions who want to end the war.
2. Zaluzhni almost begged Zelensky to evacuate Bahkmut before it became a disaster.
3. Sent the 10th Army Corps out piecemeal during the counter offensive in 2023 to keep casualties at a minimum because he thought the counter offensive would be a failure.
4. Zaluzhni refused to take responsibility for the new draft bill that will call up 500,000 people for military duty.

All of these made Zaluzhni a popular figure in the army and with the public. He was becoming a political threat to Zelensky.

Syrski has no power base to threaten Zelensky. However he will make everything into a meat grinder, pouring reinforcements into doomed positions.

The Ukraine army is going to shatter under his leadership.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I seem to recall the former leader of Ukraine's armed forces called the current situation a "stalemate", which wasn't how President Zelenskyy wanted it portrayed.  That said, the Ukrainian general is more popular than the Ukrainian President.

---

Note the sanctions were being considered in the EU, not in the United States.  The EU does not have a first amendment right to free speech.  In Germany, I believe far right propaganda can get you arrested, but I don't know if that is the underlying legal basis here.  Anyone know on what basis the EU plans to sanction Mother Tucker?

I believe Tucker Carlson has a pattern of behavior here, not just one meeting with Putin.  Russian state media blamed NATO for the invasion of Ukraine, which Tucker Carlson has echoed (while still on Fox News).  I've seen other examples, but that one stuck out.

---

As an aside, I have been taken in by Tucker twice - he inserts facts, which I like.  And then he drops an emotional punch based on a lie - but in context, it seems like it must be true.  A friend corrected me the first time, and I discovered Tucker's lie myself the second.  Tucker Carlson (at Fox News) called Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin "some guy from private equity", which ignores facts Carlson must have known:
"Lloyd James Austin III (born August 8, 1953) is an American politician and retired United States Army four-star general who is serving as the 28th United States secretary of defense since January 22, 2021."
"In June 1975, Austin graduated from West Point and was commissioned in the Infantry as a second lieutenant."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Austin

[Cawl]

I seem to recall the former leader of Ukraine's armed forces called the current situation a "stalemate", which wasn't how President Zelenskyy wanted it portrayed.  That said, the Ukrainian general is more popular than the Ukrainian President.

---

Note the sanctions were being considered in the EU, not in the United States.  The EU does not have a first amendment right to free speech.  In Germany, I believe far right propaganda can get you arrested, but I don't know if that is the underlying legal basis here.  Anyone know on what basis the EU plans to sanction Mother Tucker?

I believe Tucker Carlson has a pattern of behavior here, not just one meeting with Putin.  Russian state media blamed NATO for the invasion of Ukraine, which Tucker Carlson has echoed (while still on Fox News).  I've seen other examples, but that one stuck out.

---

As an aside, I have been taken in by Tucker twice - he inserts facts, which I like.  And then he drops an emotional punch based on a lie - but in context, it seems like it must be true.  A friend corrected me the first time, and I discovered Tucker's lie myself the second.  Tucker Carlson (at Fox News) called Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin "some guy from private equity", which ignores facts Carlson must have known:
"Lloyd James Austin III (born August 8, 1953) is an American politician and retired United States Army four-star general who is serving as the 28th United States secretary of defense since January 22, 2021."
"In June 1975, Austin graduated from West Point and was commissioned in the Infantry as a second lieutenant."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Austin

They will sanction Carlson for spreading "Disinformation."

Carlson may have been alluding to Austin sitting on the Raytheon board.

https://theintercept.com/2020/12/08/biden-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raytheon/
How did get get on the board with a government salary? Who knows?

[BNgarden]

https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/putins-genocidal-myth?r=9fd60&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Timothy Snyder's most recent on how and why Putin's interview with Carlson / views on history are wrong and lead to war, genocide, fascism.

Good links at the end for those interested in Ukrainian history.

[Travis]

As an aside, I have been taken in by Tucker twice - he inserts facts, which I like.  And then he drops an emotional punch based on a lie - but in context, it seems like it must be true. 

Propaganda 101.

Regarding Austin, countless DoD or service secretaries have had ties to industry somewhere on their resume. Whether that's a good idea or not I can't say, but its not new or shocking.

[Cawl]

The past two posts are taking part of what I said out of context :

I believe Russia's economy has already recovered, which I haven't verified.  I could find that in a few minutes... and yet Europe's leaders don't seem to have even done that.  I wonder how, in theory, they obtain new information and start new sanctions.  Currently, that process seems broken.

I focused on evidence sanctions were broken.  If Russia claims their economy is growing, not shrinking, then sanctions might not working.  Europe should investigate if that's true or not.

MOSCOW, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter was confirmed on Wednesday at 5.5% compared with the same period last year, when it shrunk 3.5%, the state statistics service Rosstat said.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-q3-gdp-growth-confirmed-55-rosstat-2023-12-13/

Setting aside trusting Russian state agencies, shouldn't this claim spur Europe to investigate if Russia's economy is still suffering under sanctions?  It's not isolated, either - the neighboring country's much higher imports also suggest sanctions evasion.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-imf-growth-military-spending-economy-2024-1

IMF says Russia's economy has grown.

[pecunia]

The past two posts are taking part of what I said out of context :

I believe Russia's economy has already recovered, which I haven't verified.  I could find that in a few minutes... and yet Europe's leaders don't seem to have even done that.  I wonder how, in theory, they obtain new information and start new sanctions.  Currently, that process seems broken.

I focused on evidence sanctions were broken.  If Russia claims their economy is growing, not shrinking, then sanctions might not working.  Europe should investigate if that's true or not.

MOSCOW, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter was confirmed on Wednesday at 5.5% compared with the same period last year, when it shrunk 3.5%, the state statistics service Rosstat said.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-q3-gdp-growth-confirmed-55-rosstat-2023-12-13/

Setting aside trusting Russian state agencies, shouldn't this claim spur Europe to investigate if Russia's economy is still suffering under sanctions?  It's not isolated, either - the neighboring country's much higher imports also suggest sanctions evasion.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-imf-growth-military-spending-economy-2024-1

IMF says Russia's economy has grown.

I guess there are healthy ways that an economy grows and some that are unhealthy.  It appears Putin is taking the country's savings and buying armaments and paying soldiers with the money.  Years ago in my basic economics class they said a government could spend money on guns or butter.  Guns was intended to represent military spending like Mr Putin is doing whereas butter could represent an investment in the people.  Spending money on the military may cause short term growth but not be a true investment into the growth of the nation.  So his spending shows up as growth, but it may be sort of bogus.

It may be like John Glenn once said   "We're eating our own seed corn."

[happy]

I've been following the SMO in Ukraine since Feb 22, due to some past personal connection.
More recently it's been impossible to take US politics out of the picture, so as an Aussie ignorant about US politics in general it's been an eye opener. By crikey, it's downright scary.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

As an aside, I have been taken in by Tucker twice - he inserts facts, which I like.  And then he drops an emotional punch based on a lie - but in context, it seems like it must be true. 

Propaganda 101.

Regarding Austin, countless DoD or service secretaries have had ties to industry somewhere on their resume. Whether that's a good idea or not I can't say, but its not new or shocking.

This was years ago, when Tucker Carlson was talking about who Biden was going to pick for Secretary of Defense.  Tucker claimed Biden picked "some guy from venture capital," without any mention of Lloyd Austin's military career. He left listeners, in this case me, with the false impression Biden had simply picked a random person out of venture capital.

[BicycleB]

I seem to recall the former leader of Ukraine's armed forces called the current situation a "stalemate", which wasn't how President Zelenskyy wanted it portrayed.  That said, the Ukrainian general is more popular than the Ukrainian President.

---

Note the sanctions were being considered in the EU, not in the United States.  The EU does not have a first amendment right to free speech.  In Germany, I believe far right propaganda can get you arrested, but I don't know if that is the underlying legal basis here.  Anyone know on what basis the EU plans to sanction Mother Tucker?

I believe Tucker Carlson has a pattern of behavior here, not just one meeting with Putin.  Russian state media blamed NATO for the invasion of Ukraine, which Tucker Carlson has echoed (while still on Fox News).  I've seen other examples, but that one stuck out.

---

As an aside, I have been taken in by Tucker twice - he inserts facts, which I like.  And then he drops an emotional punch based on a lie - but in context, it seems like it must be true.  A friend corrected me the first time, and I discovered Tucker's lie myself the second.  Tucker Carlson (at Fox News) called Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin "some guy from private equity", which ignores facts Carlson must have known:
"Lloyd James Austin III (born August 8, 1953) is an American politician and retired United States Army four-star general who is serving as the 28th United States secretary of defense since January 22, 2021."
"In June 1975, Austin graduated from West Point and was commissioned in the Infantry as a second lieutenant."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Austin

They will sanction Carlson for spreading "Disinformation."

Carlson may have been alluding to Austin sitting on the Raytheon board.

https://theintercept.com/2020/12/08/biden-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raytheon/
How did get get on the board with a government salary? Who knows?

Raytheon is a defense contractor. A top retired general is an expert of sorts on defense purchases, and comes with some level of connection to ongoing decision makers. This would be even more so with a general who doubles down on political connections, because military funding is controlled in the long term by Congressional decisions.

The military industrial complex has been a thing since before President Eisenhower named it in 1961 or so. That’s how a general got the Raytheon board.

[Cawl]

I seem to recall the former leader of Ukraine's armed forces called the current situation a "stalemate", which wasn't how President Zelenskyy wanted it portrayed.  That said, the Ukrainian general is more popular than the Ukrainian President.

---

Note the sanctions were being considered in the EU, not in the United States.  The EU does not have a first amendment right to free speech.  In Germany, I believe far right propaganda can get you arrested, but I don't know if that is the underlying legal basis here.  Anyone know on what basis the EU plans to sanction Mother Tucker?

I believe Tucker Carlson has a pattern of behavior here, not just one meeting with Putin.  Russian state media blamed NATO for the invasion of Ukraine, which Tucker Carlson has echoed (while still on Fox News).  I've seen other examples, but that one stuck out.

---

As an aside, I have been taken in by Tucker twice - he inserts facts, which I like.  And then he drops an emotional punch based on a lie - but in context, it seems like it must be true.  A friend corrected me the first time, and I discovered Tucker's lie myself the second.  Tucker Carlson (at Fox News) called Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin "some guy from private equity", which ignores facts Carlson must have known:
"Lloyd James Austin III (born August 8, 1953) is an American politician and retired United States Army four-star general who is serving as the 28th United States secretary of defense since January 22, 2021."
"In June 1975, Austin graduated from West Point and was commissioned in the Infantry as a second lieutenant."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Austin

They will sanction Carlson for spreading "Disinformation."

Carlson may have been alluding to Austin sitting on the Raytheon board.

https://theintercept.com/2020/12/08/biden-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raytheon/
How did get get on the board with a government salary? Who knows?

Raytheon is a defense contractor. A top retired general is an expert of sorts on defense purchases, and comes with some level of connection to ongoing decision makers. This would be even more so with a general who doubles down on political connections, because military funding is controlled in the long term by Congressional decisions.

The military industrial complex has been a thing since before President Eisenhower named it in 1961 or so. That’s how a general got the Raytheon board.

I was being rhetorical.

Also I was pointing out that Austin could technically be considered a "private equity guy" because of his connections to large companies.

[jinga nation]

I seem to recall the former leader of Ukraine's armed forces called the current situation a "stalemate", which wasn't how President Zelenskyy wanted it portrayed.  That said, the Ukrainian general is more popular than the Ukrainian President.

---

Note the sanctions were being considered in the EU, not in the United States.  The EU does not have a first amendment right to free speech.  In Germany, I believe far right propaganda can get you arrested, but I don't know if that is the underlying legal basis here.  Anyone know on what basis the EU plans to sanction Mother Tucker?

I believe Tucker Carlson has a pattern of behavior here, not just one meeting with Putin.  Russian state media blamed NATO for the invasion of Ukraine, which Tucker Carlson has echoed (while still on Fox News).  I've seen other examples, but that one stuck out.

---

As an aside, I have been taken in by Tucker twice - he inserts facts, which I like.  And then he drops an emotional punch based on a lie - but in context, it seems like it must be true.  A friend corrected me the first time, and I discovered Tucker's lie myself the second.  Tucker Carlson (at Fox News) called Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin "some guy from private equity", which ignores facts Carlson must have known:
"Lloyd James Austin III (born August 8, 1953) is an American politician and retired United States Army four-star general who is serving as the 28th United States secretary of defense since January 22, 2021."
"In June 1975, Austin graduated from West Point and was commissioned in the Infantry as a second lieutenant."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Austin

They will sanction Carlson for spreading "Disinformation."

Carlson may have been alluding to Austin sitting on the Raytheon board.

https://theintercept.com/2020/12/08/biden-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raytheon/
How did get get on the board with a government salary? Who knows?

Raytheon is a defense contractor. A top retired general is an expert of sorts on defense purchases, and comes with some level of connection to ongoing decision makers. This would be even more so with a general who doubles down on political connections, because military funding is controlled in the long term by Congressional decisions.

The military industrial complex has been a thing since before President Eisenhower named it in 1961 or so. That’s how a general got the Raytheon board.

I was being rhetorical.

Also I was pointing out that Austin could technically be considered a "private equity guy" because of his connections to large companies.

Austin spent 51 years in the US Army, starting as a West Point graduate in 1975, retiring in 2016 as a 4-star general. He spent less than 5 years (2016 to early 2021) as a board member/director at a couple of companies, including Raytheon and Nucor. To call him a "private equity guy" for a few years of corporate work is asinine. Also he isn't listed on the PE firm's partner list. https://pineislandcp.com/

Political-military-industrial complex member? For sure. There have many before him, and many will come after him. That's par for the course, it's the system, stupid!

[pecunia]

I've been following the SMO in Ukraine since Feb 22, due to some past personal connection.
More recently it's been impossible to take US politics out of the picture, so as an Aussie ignorant about US politics in general it's been an eye opener. By crikey, it's downright scary.

The United States has got oceans on two sides,......well at least for the continental US.  However Australia is surrounded by oceans in a whole different hemisphere.  I don't think you guys have a lot to be scared of.  Missiles have to fly a long ways to reach your cities.

[oldladystache]

I've been following the SMO in Ukraine since Feb 22, due to some past personal connection.
More recently it's been impossible to take US politics out of the picture, so as an Aussie ignorant about US politics in general it's been an eye opener. By crikey, it's downright scary.

Don't forget, the news you are seeing is biased. All news is biased, so what you are hearing isn't necessarily ... um, not sure what word to put here. Accurate? Reliable? Honest?

[maizefolk]

The United States has got oceans on two sides,......well at least for the continental US.  However Australia is surrounded by oceans in a whole different hemisphere.  I don't think you guys have a lot to be scared of.  Missiles have to fly a long ways to reach your cities.

I think this is a fundamental misread of the anxieties of the Australian public (as I understand them as a non-Australian). Those fears have a lot to do with being a country of 26M, sitting on a whole continent of agricultural and mineral resources at the edge of the expanding sphere of influence of a resource and territory hungry superpower of 1.4B people.

The USA doesn't have a great reputation/perception down there from what I can gather, but I think we are still valued as a potential counterbalance to China.

[happy]

I've been following the SMO in Ukraine since Feb 22, due to some past personal connection.
More recently it's been impossible to take US politics out of the picture, so as an Aussie ignorant about US politics in general it's been an eye opener. By crikey, it's downright scary.

Don't forget, the news you are seeing is biased. All news is biased, so what you are hearing isn't necessarily ... um, not sure what word to put here. Accurate? Reliable? Honest?

The United States has got oceans on two sides,......well at least for the continental US.  However Australia is surrounded by oceans in a whole different hemisphere.  I don't think you guys have a lot to be scared of.  Missiles have to fly a long ways to reach your cities.

I think this is a fundamental misread of the anxieties of the Australian public (as I understand them as a non-Australian). Those fears have a lot to do with being a country of 26M, sitting on a whole continent of agricultural and mineral resources at the edge of the expanding sphere of influence of a resource and territory hungry superpower of 1.4B people.

The USA doesn't have a great reputation/perception down there from what I can gather, but I think we are still valued as a potential counterbalance to China.

I've been following the SMO in Ukraine since Feb 22, due to some past personal connection.
More recently it's been impossible to take US politics out of the picture, so as an Aussie ignorant about US politics in general it's been an eye opener. By crikey, it's downright scary.

The United States has got oceans on two sides,......well at least for the continental US.  However Australia is surrounded by oceans in a whole different hemisphere.  I don't think you guys have a lot to be scared of.  Missiles have to fly a long ways to reach your cities.

Thanks for your comments... they all have merit, and I am tempted to discuss further, but will refrain from taking this thread off course.

In the context of Ukraine, what I was referring to, albeit indirectly, was firstly the ability of one bloke, speaker Johnson to completely stymie  US aid by refusing to schedule a vote. So much power invested in 1 person (democratic???).  And the whole Trump/MAGA issue, especially his latest remarks about NATO. 

[BicycleB]

I seem to recall the former leader of Ukraine's armed forces called the current situation a "stalemate", which wasn't how President Zelenskyy wanted it portrayed.  That said, the Ukrainian general is more popular than the Ukrainian President.

---

Note the sanctions were being considered in the EU, not in the United States.  The EU does not have a first amendment right to free speech.  In Germany, I believe far right propaganda can get you arrested, but I don't know if that is the underlying legal basis here.  Anyone know on what basis the EU plans to sanction Mother Tucker?

I believe Tucker Carlson has a pattern of behavior here, not just one meeting with Putin.  Russian state media blamed NATO for the invasion of Ukraine, which Tucker Carlson has echoed (while still on Fox News).  I've seen other examples, but that one stuck out.

---

As an aside, I have been taken in by Tucker twice - he inserts facts, which I like.  And then he drops an emotional punch based on a lie - but in context, it seems like it must be true.  A friend corrected me the first time, and I discovered Tucker's lie myself the second.  Tucker Carlson (at Fox News) called Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin "some guy from private equity", which ignores facts Carlson must have known:
"Lloyd James Austin III (born August 8, 1953) is an American politician and retired United States Army four-star general who is serving as the 28th United States secretary of defense since January 22, 2021."
"In June 1975, Austin graduated from West Point and was commissioned in the Infantry as a second lieutenant."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Austin

They will sanction Carlson for spreading "Disinformation."

Carlson may have been alluding to Austin sitting on the Raytheon board.

https://theintercept.com/2020/12/08/biden-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raytheon/
How did get get on the board with a government salary? Who knows?

Raytheon is a defense contractor. A top retired general is an expert of sorts on defense purchases, and comes with some level of connection to ongoing decision makers. This would be even more so with a general who doubles down on political connections, because military funding is controlled in the long term by Congressional decisions.

The military industrial complex has been a thing since before President Eisenhower named it in 1961 or so. That’s how a general got the Raytheon board.

I was being rhetorical.

Also I was pointing out that Austin could technically be considered a "private equity guy" because of his connections to large companies.

Oh, I see. Sorry!

Well, you’re quite right. Thanks for clarifying.

[Cawl]

Russia supposedly pushing all along the front.

[Mr FrugalNL]

All along the approximately 600 km frontline? What sources are saying this?

[Cawl]

All along the approximately 600 km frontline? What sources are saying this?

General Syrski in an interview with German media ZDF.
https://youtu.be/I1OsDnLJ_fs

[LennStar]

All along the approximately 600 km frontline? What sources are saying this?

General Syrski in an interview with German media ZDF.
https://youtu.be/I1OsDnLJ_fs

Russia has been pressing since November, and as I wrote several times, very slowly gaining ground at multiple points on the eastern front. They have broken through the frontlines (but seem to have been stopped by now) in one place and Avdijivka only seems a matter of (short) time now. Ukraine is throwing that former "Nazi militia" whose name I forgot in there now. 

[Mr FrugalNL]

Thanks for posting the link. I unfortunately do not understand Russian or Ukrainian, but was able to find a version of the same interview dubbed in German and was able to get the gist of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiCyTvQgvLs I gathered that according to Syrsky Russia on the offensive suffers approximately 7 to 8 casualties for every 1 Ukrainian casualty. That sounds about right based on what I've read and heard so far. Ukraine needs Russia to keep playing that game to attrit it further.

[waltworks]

It will be interesting to see if this slowly losing ground but killing a metric crapton of Russians ends up being a giant battle of Breed's hill situation, of if it will just eventually mean a Russian victory.

-W

[zolotiyeruki]

Russia has four times the population of Ukraine.  If they're truly losing 7-8x as many troops (and it appears they're losing WAY more than 8x as much armor), that's not a good trajectory, especially since they're gaining very very little ground in exchange.

[swiper]

Some good news for valentine's day: Big boy landing ship "Caesar Kunikov" sunk by UKR GRU naval drones

[techwiz]

It will be interesting to see if this slowly losing ground but killing a metric crapton of Russians ends up being a giant battle of Breed's hill situation, of if it will just eventually mean a Russian victory.

-W

Like the Breed's hill situation it was captured after the defenders ran out of ammunition. I think it will also similar if new supplies from Ukraine allies are too slow coming, causing them to lose ground. 

[zolotiyeruki]

It will be interesting to see if this slowly losing ground but killing a metric crapton of Russians ends up being a giant battle of Breed's hill situation, of if it will just eventually mean a Russian victory.

-W

Like the Breed's hill situation it was captured after the defenders ran out of ammunition. I think it will also similar if new supplies from Ukraine allies are too slow coming, causing them to lose ground.

Certainly Ukraine is hurting because of a shortage of artillery ammunition.  I'm sitting here, wondering why on earth we still aren't sending the literal thousands of unused Bradleys we have.  They were built specifically to fight Russia.  Yeah, yeah, I get that they all need some refurbishment to some degree, and that Ukraine needs to be able to train their troops to operate it effectively, but I'd let Ukraine be the judge of whether they can use 'em.

[ChpBstrd]

Russia has four times the population of Ukraine.  If they're truly losing 7-8x as many troops (and it appears they're losing WAY more than 8x as much armor), that's not a good trajectory, especially since they're gaining very very little ground in exchange.

On the other hand, I've seen reports that Russia is ramping up their mercenary recruitment operation in places like Syria, Nepal, North Africa, and the poorest parts of Afghanistan. After 2 weeks of training they are sent to the front lines as cannon fodder to absorb Ukrainian munitions. Most can't even understand their orders because they don't speak Russian.

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/2/10/want-to-go-home-nepalis-fighting-for-russia-in-ukraine-describe-horrors

There is no shortage of financially desperate / poorly informed people in the world, and there is no shortage of Russian oil money, so this dynamic could go on for longer than the Ukrainian ammo supply or Western willpower. Even if they can only recruit a couple thousand people per month, that puts the sustainability of Russian losses into context. If they were only losing mercenaries at a cost of a few thousand dollars each, they'd be winning.

Ukraine would be wise to import workers to run munitions factories, replace farm workers who became soldiers, repair equipment, drive trucks, care for the wounded, rebuild infrastructure, and similar. Perhaps even offer immigrants citizenship after a period of service. It's a winning strategy in a war of attrition.

[Cawl]

Ukraine would be wise to import workers to run munitions factories, replace farm workers who became soldiers, repair equipment, drive trucks, care for the wounded, rebuild infrastructure, and similar. Perhaps even offer immigrants citizenship after a period of service. It's a winning strategy in a war of attrition.

They won't have the time to do that.

[LennStar]

Ukraine would be wise to import workers to run munitions factories, replace farm workers who became soldiers, repair equipment, drive trucks, care for the wounded, rebuild infrastructure, and similar. Perhaps even offer immigrants citizenship after a period of service. It's a winning strategy in a war of attrition.

They won't have the time to do that.

Not to mention, why should you go into a war torn-country where the wages are the near the bottom of the EU?

[Mr FrugalNL]

Ukraine would be wise to import workers to run munitions factories, replace farm workers who became soldiers, repair equipment, drive trucks, care for the wounded, rebuild infrastructure, and similar. Perhaps even offer immigrants citizenship after a period of service. It's a winning strategy in a war of attrition.

They won't have the time to do that.

Not to mention, why should you go into a war torn-country where the wages are the near the bottom of the EU?

On Ukraine supposedly not having the time to do that: That argument would have convinced me in February-March 2022, when the Russians seemed close to capturing Kyiv. Today, I don't see why there wouldn't be enough time.

On why someone would go into a wartorn country etc.: That's a fair question but bear in mind that thousands globally have joined the Russian armed forces. And what have they gotten? In many cases a few weeks' training followed by a one-way trip into the meatgrinder. I'm sure that Ukraine could come up with a better value proposition than that if it felt it would benefit from immigrant workers. Ukrainian wages may be low compared to those in most EU countries but they must look pretty enticing to someone from Afghanistan or Nepal to name just two countries. The fact Ukraine hasn't done this yet probably means it doesn't see a need for it or that it feels the downsides would outweigh the benefits.

[pecunia]

It will be interesting to see if this slowly losing ground but killing a metric crapton of Russians ends up being a giant battle of Breed's hill situation, of if it will just eventually mean a Russian victory.

-W

Like the Breed's hill situation it was captured after the defenders ran out of ammunition. I think it will also similar if new supplies from Ukraine allies are too slow coming, causing them to lose ground.

Certainly Ukraine is hurting because of a shortage of artillery ammunition.  I'm sitting here, wondering why on earth we still aren't sending the literal thousands of unused Bradleys we have.  They were built specifically to fight Russia.  Yeah, yeah, I get that they all need some refurbishment to some degree, and that Ukraine needs to be able to train their troops to operate it effectively, but I'd let Ukraine be the judge of whether they can use 'em.

A good amount of aid is being held up due to the split in the Republican party.  There is what may be called the traditional or Reagan Republicans who see the necessity to support Ukraine and the newer MAGA type Republicans who take more parochial views and take a short term viewpoint.  I get the impression that the newer MAGA types don't "see" beyond the US borders.  However, I have difficulty understanding what their ideology actually is.  Unfortunately, as we've discussed, the current Speaker of the House is of the MAGA variety of Republican and may continue to hold up aid including the surplus Bradleys you speak of.

[ChpBstrd]

Ukraine would be wise to import workers to run munitions factories, replace farm workers who became soldiers, repair equipment, drive trucks, care for the wounded, rebuild infrastructure, and similar. Perhaps even offer immigrants citizenship after a period of service. It's a winning strategy in a war of attrition.

They won't have the time to do that.

Not to mention, why should you go into a war torn-country where the wages are the near the bottom of the EU?

Half of "bottom of the EU" wages would be damn good money for hundreds of millions of hopeless people across the world who would leap at the chance to rebuild bombed-out railroad tracks or work in a clandestine munitions or drone factory. Some would leap at the chance to fight on Ukraine's side.

Also, the argument about a war-torn country could apply to Russia as well. In terms of citizenship, which passport would you rather have? Ukrainian or Russian? Only Ukraine can offer people potential citizenship in a free democracy. Russia is a totalitarian prison.

Regarding the "won't have time" argument, can any of us estimate when the war will end? Four years from now? Five? Ten? Russia geared up their foreign mercenary program in less than a year, and is probably attracting laborers with other programs to replace their draftees.

[Dancin'Dog]

I’m surprised Putin hasn’t hired North Korean soldiers.  Kim can barely afford to feed them. 

[zolotiyeruki]

Uh-oh, it looks like LennStar and ChpBstrd got their quotes misformatted.

[LennStar]

I’m surprised Putin hasn’t hired North Korean soldiers.  Kim can barely afford to feed them.

Oh no, the soldiers are fed. But the normal people might be different.
A) And why do you think starved, weak people would make good soldiers, even if cannon fodder?
B) Why do you think Kim would agree to let his slaves leave? I mean most of them would die, but some might get back saying that even Russia is better than North Korea!
C) Do you have any idea how bad the PR would be if those hungry NK happen to win a fight where the might Russians with their unwavering faith and strength could not?
D) Most important, that would look like a weakness. Arty ammo might be one thing, but people from NK? ou have to resort to them???

[Radagast]

From the perspective of a Ukrainian, a Russian victory means:
A murder and torture spree for 100,000's of its citizens
Decades of political terror and repression
Complete looting of the Ukrainian economy
Decades of economic repression and pilfering with proceeds to Moscow
Elimination of Ukrainian language, culture, and all aspects of independence

Ukrainians have 0 motivation to stop fighting under any circumstances, because to cease fighting will have results that are actually worse than the war itself. Do people not realize that? This is hypothetical, but only if Ukraine wins.

From the perspective of others, a Russian victory means continued wars of conquest until they are forcibly stopped by someone. Again this is only hypothetical if Russia loses. Do people not realize the costs of Russian victory are much higher than the costs of providing weapons to Ukraine?