Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 771438 times)

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3600 on: August 26, 2023, 02:26:19 PM »
On to the US. I thought Biden was perfect in the first half of 2022. The real time intelligence information which united Ukrainians behind themselves, and the world behind Ukraine when Russia proved to be false. The slowly escalating weapons deliveries which both led yet followed world opinion, ultimately resulting in HIMARS which single handedly crushed Russian ambitions. Then he slacked. The next half of 2022 resulted in minimal to no extra capabilities, but at least gave the appearance of action. The first half of 2023 resulted in no new capabilities, merely a sustainment of what had been done in 2022.
HIMARS got all the headlines, but there's a LOT of other stuff.  We've now sent 150-ish Bradly IFVs, a whole lotta Patriot missile complexes, and I imagine the intelligence support is continuing.  There's a lot of unglamorous stuff, too--trucks, night-vision goggles, infantry equipment.  And recently cluster artillery shells, which are *way* more effective against infantry and trenchlines.  So even though things haven't progressed as quickly as a lot of us would hope, there's a lot happening that doesn't get the publicity.  And while other EU nations have at times dragged their feet, there's no denying the effectiveness of Storm Shadow.

I, too, wish Ukraine were fully equipped with hundreds of F-16s, not for the jets themselves, but for all the amazing weapons they can carry--SDBs, laser-guided bombs, fully-functional HARMs, etc.  But in order for Ukraine to fully employ the jets, they have to be trained.  And not just the pilots, but the whole support infrastructure as well--maintenance is a doozy for modern fighters.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3601 on: August 26, 2023, 04:10:11 PM »
So,......you would think it wouldn't be too long and Ukraine will be getting the Saab-Boeing glide bombs (GLSDB).  They already have some sort of glide bombs, but I don't believe any of these have shipped.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-suspends-delivery-of-himars-launched-glsdb-smart-bombs-to-taiwan/

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3602 on: August 27, 2023, 07:16:04 AM »
So,......you would think it wouldn't be too long and Ukraine will be getting the Saab-Boeing glide bombs (GLSDB).  They already have some sort of glide bombs, but I don't believe any of these have shipped.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-suspends-delivery-of-himars-launched-glsdb-smart-bombs-to-taiwan/
I thing GLSDBs were only tested last year for the first time, so I wouldn't count on them arriving soon.

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3603 on: August 28, 2023, 12:12:11 AM »
On to the US. I thought Biden was perfect in the first half of 2022. The real time intelligence information which united Ukrainians behind themselves, and the world behind Ukraine when Russia proved to be false. The slowly escalating weapons deliveries which both led yet followed world opinion, ultimately resulting in HIMARS which single handedly crushed Russian ambitions. Then he slacked. The next half of 2022 resulted in minimal to no extra capabilities, but at least gave the appearance of action. The first half of 2023 resulted in no new capabilities, merely a sustainment of what had been done in 2022.
HIMARS got all the headlines, but there's a LOT of other stuff.  We've now sent 150-ish Bradly IFVs, a whole lotta Patriot missile complexes, and I imagine the intelligence support is continuing.  There's a lot of unglamorous stuff, too--trucks, night-vision goggles, infantry equipment.  And recently cluster artillery shells, which are *way* more effective against infantry and trenchlines.  So even though things haven't progressed as quickly as a lot of us would hope, there's a lot happening that doesn't get the publicity.  And while other EU nations have at times dragged their feet, there's no denying the effectiveness of Storm Shadow.

I, too, wish Ukraine were fully equipped with hundreds of F-16s, not for the jets themselves, but for all the amazing weapons they can carry--SDBs, laser-guided bombs, fully-functional HARMs, etc.  But in order for Ukraine to fully employ the jets, they have to be trained.  And not just the pilots, but the whole support infrastructure as well--maintenance is a doozy for modern fighters.
I never mentioned F-16. In fact your list of things provided is basically my list of complaints. Cluster munitions should have been sent much earlier. You don't have to know anything about the military to understand that they would be far more effective per shot for many uses than single war heads. Just think that a regular shell attenuates to the 3 power away from its detonation, and approximately half of that is aimed straight up, and you can see why. Further even vaguely paying attention you would know that the US plans to decommission its entire stock, and that decommissioning millions of cluster munitions will cost billions of dollars. In terms of cost effectiveness, a munition that is more effective yet saves money is obvious, and would have had a huge impact. The US should have started delivering them a year ago, with the plan to deliver the entire stock over the next 24 months, with Ukraine agreeing to later dispose any that didn't meet their standards. There is no excuse not to have done that.

Bradleys. I think someone made a rule that no more than double digits should ever be operational in Ukraine at once, and you can count total Bradleys destroyed or damaged by subtracting 99 from the number delivered. It's stupid to have a policy of defeating the entire Russian army, and yet limit deliveries to less than four digits. Ditto for air defenses of all types. It was so obviously useful, and strung out for so long, and still present in a fraction the numbers needed. Tanks. The slow delivery of tiny numbers of largely obsolete models is embarrassing. Again, trying to take on all of the Russian army without more than double digits of any tank model is just terrible policy. This is especially so because they are just gathering dust, and 80% of anything earmarked for use against Russia can just be sent over without thought, because that is what it's purpose is! Longer range weapons. Really obvious how useful they would be. Provided slow, late and in tiny numbers. I understand this halfway because it's the first item in the paragraph that could conceivably be more useful anywhere else ever. Still, it would be so useful in Ukraine that it's stupid to not have provided even a few hundred. F-16: great, they're mostly like the other items on this list.  they are just a different variety of artillery, air defense, and long range munitions. There is a bunch, they aren't getting newer, there would be minimal to no additional cost to send a few hundred (vs maintaining and disposing), why not?

Also, general policy. Russia has been making huge trouble and killing a very many people in many terrible ways all over the place. There is no doubt that large swathes of the world are right now worse off because of them, and I doubt anyone at all is better except a few corrupt individuals numbering in the thousands on the backs of others. This is ongoing right now, and not just in Ukraine. Why is everyone so reluctant to return the favor? What are they waiting for, "Catalonian separatists" to appear in their countries?

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3604 on: August 28, 2023, 06:31:54 AM »
On to the US. I thought Biden was perfect in the first half of 2022. The real time intelligence information which united Ukrainians behind themselves, and the world behind Ukraine when Russia proved to be false. The slowly escalating weapons deliveries which both led yet followed world opinion, ultimately resulting in HIMARS which single handedly crushed Russian ambitions. Then he slacked. The next half of 2022 resulted in minimal to no extra capabilities, but at least gave the appearance of action. The first half of 2023 resulted in no new capabilities, merely a sustainment of what had been done in 2022.
HIMARS got all the headlines, but there's a LOT of other stuff.  We've now sent 150-ish Bradly IFVs, a whole lotta Patriot missile complexes, and I imagine the intelligence support is continuing.  There's a lot of unglamorous stuff, too--trucks, night-vision goggles, infantry equipment.  And recently cluster artillery shells, which are *way* more effective against infantry and trenchlines.  So even though things haven't progressed as quickly as a lot of us would hope, there's a lot happening that doesn't get the publicity.  And while other EU nations have at times dragged their feet, there's no denying the effectiveness of Storm Shadow.

I, too, wish Ukraine were fully equipped with hundreds of F-16s, not for the jets themselves, but for all the amazing weapons they can carry--SDBs, laser-guided bombs, fully-functional HARMs, etc.  But in order for Ukraine to fully employ the jets, they have to be trained.  And not just the pilots, but the whole support infrastructure as well--maintenance is a doozy for modern fighters.
I never mentioned F-16. In fact your list of things provided is basically my list of complaints. Cluster munitions should have been sent much earlier. You don't have to know anything about the military to understand that they would be far more effective per shot for many uses than single war heads. Just think that a regular shell attenuates to the 3 power away from its detonation, and approximately half of that is aimed straight up, and you can see why. Further even vaguely paying attention you would know that the US plans to decommission its entire stock, and that decommissioning millions of cluster munitions will cost billions of dollars. In terms of cost effectiveness, a munition that is more effective yet saves money is obvious, and would have had a huge impact. The US should have started delivering them a year ago, with the plan to deliver the entire stock over the next 24 months, with Ukraine agreeing to later dispose any that didn't meet their standards. There is no excuse not to have done that.

Bradleys. I think someone made a rule that no more than double digits should ever be operational in Ukraine at once, and you can count total Bradleys destroyed or damaged by subtracting 99 from the number delivered. It's stupid to have a policy of defeating the entire Russian army, and yet limit deliveries to less than four digits. Ditto for air defenses of all types. It was so obviously useful, and strung out for so long, and still present in a fraction the numbers needed. Tanks. The slow delivery of tiny numbers of largely obsolete models is embarrassing. Again, trying to take on all of the Russian army without more than double digits of any tank model is just terrible policy. This is especially so because they are just gathering dust, and 80% of anything earmarked for use against Russia can just be sent over without thought, because that is what it's purpose is! Longer range weapons. Really obvious how useful they would be. Provided slow, late and in tiny numbers. I understand this halfway because it's the first item in the paragraph that could conceivably be more useful anywhere else ever. Still, it would be so useful in Ukraine that it's stupid to not have provided even a few hundred. F-16: great, they're mostly like the other items on this list.  they are just a different variety of artillery, air defense, and long range munitions. There is a bunch, they aren't getting newer, there would be minimal to no additional cost to send a few hundred (vs maintaining and disposing), why not?

Also, general policy. Russia has been making huge trouble and killing a very many people in many terrible ways all over the place. There is no doubt that large swathes of the world are right now worse off because of them, and I doubt anyone at all is better except a few corrupt individuals numbering in the thousands on the backs of others. This is ongoing right now, and not just in Ukraine. Why is everyone so reluctant to return the favor? What are they waiting for, "Catalonian separatists" to appear in their countries?

People are really afraid of nuclear bombs.  The Russians know this and it allows them to get away with crazy uncivilized behavior.  I think if it wasn't for the nukes the world would have "re-educated" Russia forcefully a generation ago.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3605 on: August 28, 2023, 07:36:10 AM »
Cluster munitions should have been sent much earlier. You don't have to know anything about the military to understand that they would be far more effective per shot for many uses than single war heads. Just think that a regular shell attenuates to the 3 power away from its detonation, and approximately half of that is aimed straight up, and you can see why. Further even vaguely paying attention you would know that the US plans to decommission its entire stock, and that decommissioning millions of cluster munitions will cost billions of dollars. In terms of cost effectiveness, a munition that is more effective yet saves money is obvious, and would have had a huge impact. The US should have started delivering them a year ago, with the plan to deliver the entire stock over the next 24 months, with Ukraine agreeing to later dispose any that didn't meet their standards. There is no excuse not to have done that.

If you only look at it from the standpoint of an US army procurement officer, then yes.
But you forget that there are other countries in there supplying, and for most of them it's illegal to use or export cluster munitions.
Not to mention the fears of "this will escalate the war and Putin will make it worse!". Regerdless of how based in reality those fears were, they existed and exist.

As far as your thousands of tanks etc go, there are 2 problems:
A) giving them is a LOT easier than keeping them in workable condition, especially if you don't have the trained crews. Also: Munitions and their logistics.
B) You need someone to drive them, preferably in a way that they are useful. Tanks aren't known to be self-driving automatics.
That is especially true for any aircraft.

Could there have been higher numbers delivered at an earlier point? Yes, and should have.
But as it is it is already amazing how good the Ukrainians work with the pletora of weapon models they have (or so military trainers and logistic officers have said several times). Just having more of them might not have made such a difference, and certainly not 10 times more. 

sixwings

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3606 on: August 28, 2023, 08:50:35 AM »
On to the US. I thought Biden was perfect in the first half of 2022. The real time intelligence information which united Ukrainians behind themselves, and the world behind Ukraine when Russia proved to be false. The slowly escalating weapons deliveries which both led yet followed world opinion, ultimately resulting in HIMARS which single handedly crushed Russian ambitions. Then he slacked. The next half of 2022 resulted in minimal to no extra capabilities, but at least gave the appearance of action. The first half of 2023 resulted in no new capabilities, merely a sustainment of what had been done in 2022.
HIMARS got all the headlines, but there's a LOT of other stuff.  We've now sent 150-ish Bradly IFVs, a whole lotta Patriot missile complexes, and I imagine the intelligence support is continuing.  There's a lot of unglamorous stuff, too--trucks, night-vision goggles, infantry equipment.  And recently cluster artillery shells, which are *way* more effective against infantry and trenchlines.  So even though things haven't progressed as quickly as a lot of us would hope, there's a lot happening that doesn't get the publicity.  And while other EU nations have at times dragged their feet, there's no denying the effectiveness of Storm Shadow.

I, too, wish Ukraine were fully equipped with hundreds of F-16s, not for the jets themselves, but for all the amazing weapons they can carry--SDBs, laser-guided bombs, fully-functional HARMs, etc.  But in order for Ukraine to fully employ the jets, they have to be trained.  And not just the pilots, but the whole support infrastructure as well--maintenance is a doozy for modern fighters.
I never mentioned F-16. In fact your list of things provided is basically my list of complaints. Cluster munitions should have been sent much earlier. You don't have to know anything about the military to understand that they would be far more effective per shot for many uses than single war heads. Just think that a regular shell attenuates to the 3 power away from its detonation, and approximately half of that is aimed straight up, and you can see why. Further even vaguely paying attention you would know that the US plans to decommission its entire stock, and that decommissioning millions of cluster munitions will cost billions of dollars. In terms of cost effectiveness, a munition that is more effective yet saves money is obvious, and would have had a huge impact. The US should have started delivering them a year ago, with the plan to deliver the entire stock over the next 24 months, with Ukraine agreeing to later dispose any that didn't meet their standards. There is no excuse not to have done that.

Bradleys. I think someone made a rule that no more than double digits should ever be operational in Ukraine at once, and you can count total Bradleys destroyed or damaged by subtracting 99 from the number delivered. It's stupid to have a policy of defeating the entire Russian army, and yet limit deliveries to less than four digits. Ditto for air defenses of all types. It was so obviously useful, and strung out for so long, and still present in a fraction the numbers needed. Tanks. The slow delivery of tiny numbers of largely obsolete models is embarrassing. Again, trying to take on all of the Russian army without more than double digits of any tank model is just terrible policy. This is especially so because they are just gathering dust, and 80% of anything earmarked for use against Russia can just be sent over without thought, because that is what it's purpose is! Longer range weapons. Really obvious how useful they would be. Provided slow, late and in tiny numbers. I understand this halfway because it's the first item in the paragraph that could conceivably be more useful anywhere else ever. Still, it would be so useful in Ukraine that it's stupid to not have provided even a few hundred. F-16: great, they're mostly like the other items on this list.  they are just a different variety of artillery, air defense, and long range munitions. There is a bunch, they aren't getting newer, there would be minimal to no additional cost to send a few hundred (vs maintaining and disposing), why not?

Also, general policy. Russia has been making huge trouble and killing a very many people in many terrible ways all over the place. There is no doubt that large swathes of the world are right now worse off because of them, and I doubt anyone at all is better except a few corrupt individuals numbering in the thousands on the backs of others. This is ongoing right now, and not just in Ukraine. Why is everyone so reluctant to return the favor? What are they waiting for, "Catalonian separatists" to appear in their countries?

People are really afraid of nuclear bombs.  The Russians know this and it allows them to get away with crazy uncivilized behavior.  I think if it wasn't for the nukes the world would have "re-educated" Russia forcefully a generation ago.

Patton really advocated war against Russia immediately after WW2 when the armies were in europe and america had the bomb and russia didn't. Truman didn't want to keep going for lots of reasons.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3607 on: August 28, 2023, 02:19:49 PM »
On to the US. I thought Biden was perfect in the first half of 2022. The real time intelligence information which united Ukrainians behind themselves, and the world behind Ukraine when Russia proved to be false. The slowly escalating weapons deliveries which both led yet followed world opinion, ultimately resulting in HIMARS which single handedly crushed Russian ambitions. Then he slacked. The next half of 2022 resulted in minimal to no extra capabilities, but at least gave the appearance of action. The first half of 2023 resulted in no new capabilities, merely a sustainment of what had been done in 2022.
HIMARS got all the headlines, but there's a LOT of other stuff.  We've now sent 150-ish Bradly IFVs, a whole lotta Patriot missile complexes, and I imagine the intelligence support is continuing.  There's a lot of unglamorous stuff, too--trucks, night-vision goggles, infantry equipment.  And recently cluster artillery shells, which are *way* more effective against infantry and trenchlines.  So even though things haven't progressed as quickly as a lot of us would hope, there's a lot happening that doesn't get the publicity.  And while other EU nations have at times dragged their feet, there's no denying the effectiveness of Storm Shadow.

I, too, wish Ukraine were fully equipped with hundreds of F-16s, not for the jets themselves, but for all the amazing weapons they can carry--SDBs, laser-guided bombs, fully-functional HARMs, etc.  But in order for Ukraine to fully employ the jets, they have to be trained.  And not just the pilots, but the whole support infrastructure as well--maintenance is a doozy for modern fighters.
I never mentioned F-16. In fact your list of things provided is basically my list of complaints. Cluster munitions should have been sent much earlier. You don't have to know anything about the military to understand that they would be far more effective per shot for many uses than single war heads. Just think that a regular shell attenuates to the 3 power away from its detonation, and approximately half of that is aimed straight up, and you can see why. Further even vaguely paying attention you would know that the US plans to decommission its entire stock, and that decommissioning millions of cluster munitions will cost billions of dollars. In terms of cost effectiveness, a munition that is more effective yet saves money is obvious, and would have had a huge impact. The US should have started delivering them a year ago, with the plan to deliver the entire stock over the next 24 months, with Ukraine agreeing to later dispose any that didn't meet their standards. There is no excuse not to have done that.

Bradleys. I think someone made a rule that no more than double digits should ever be operational in Ukraine at once, and you can count total Bradleys destroyed or damaged by subtracting 99 from the number delivered. It's stupid to have a policy of defeating the entire Russian army, and yet limit deliveries to less than four digits. Ditto for air defenses of all types. It was so obviously useful, and strung out for so long, and still present in a fraction the numbers needed. Tanks. The slow delivery of tiny numbers of largely obsolete models is embarrassing. Again, trying to take on all of the Russian army without more than double digits of any tank model is just terrible policy. This is especially so because they are just gathering dust, and 80% of anything earmarked for use against Russia can just be sent over without thought, because that is what it's purpose is! Longer range weapons. Really obvious how useful they would be. Provided slow, late and in tiny numbers. I understand this halfway because it's the first item in the paragraph that could conceivably be more useful anywhere else ever. Still, it would be so useful in Ukraine that it's stupid to not have provided even a few hundred. F-16: great, they're mostly like the other items on this list.  they are just a different variety of artillery, air defense, and long range munitions. There is a bunch, they aren't getting newer, there would be minimal to no additional cost to send a few hundred (vs maintaining and disposing), why not?

Also, general policy. Russia has been making huge trouble and killing a very many people in many terrible ways all over the place. There is no doubt that large swathes of the world are right now worse off because of them, and I doubt anyone at all is better except a few corrupt individuals numbering in the thousands on the backs of others. This is ongoing right now, and not just in Ukraine. Why is everyone so reluctant to return the favor? What are they waiting for, "Catalonian separatists" to appear in their countries?

People are really afraid of nuclear bombs.  The Russians know this and it allows them to get away with crazy uncivilized behavior.  I think if it wasn't for the nukes the world would have "re-educated" Russia forcefully a generation ago.

Patton really advocated war against Russia immediately after WW2 when the armies were in europe and america had the bomb and russia didn't. Truman didn't want to keep going for lots of reasons.

Yeh - I guess General MacArthur wanted to do the same thing to Red China during the Korean conflict.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3608 on: August 30, 2023, 09:08:25 AM »
And in the latest development, Ukrainan drones have attacked an airbase in Pskov. The attack has according to initial reports taken out at least four Iljusjin Il-76 transport airplanes belonging to the VDV.   

Pskov is far far away Ukraine. Check a map. Five other places in Russia was also hit by Ukraine this past night. This is ... interesting.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-attack-russian-air-base-near-estonia-2023-08-30/

Now I just wait for one of these drones to hit Putins little datcha on the Black Sea coast.  If you need a refresher, here is Navalnys documentary:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI  (yes, English subtitles are available).
« Last Edit: August 30, 2023, 09:15:43 AM by lemanfan »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3609 on: August 30, 2023, 09:15:46 AM »
And in the latest development, Ukrainan drones have attacked an airbase in Pskov. The attack has according to initial reports taken out at least four Iljusjin Il-76 transport airplanes belonging to the 76:th VDV.   

Pskov is far far away Ukraine. Check a map. Five other places in Russia was also hit by Ukraine this past night. This is ... interesting.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-attack-russian-air-base-near-estonia-2023-08-30/

Now I just wait for one of these drones to hit Putins little datcha on the Black Sea coast.  If you need a refresher, here is Navalnys documentary:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI  (yes, English subtitles are available).

You know the coolest thing about these latest drone attacks is that the drones are made from Australian cardboard.  You just can't make this stuff up.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21035

What's next rubber band engines?

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3610 on: August 30, 2023, 10:56:35 AM »
A video I watched this morning pointed out that the IL-76's were a huge help to Russia last summer when the Ukrainians were blitzing in the north.  The IL-76s moved lots of heavy machinery to that area of the front to help blunt the assault.

Ukraine is getting closer and closer to having the entire width of the land bridge under fire control, i.e. they can hit any transportation line with artillery, rockets, HIMARS, or something similar.  Given Russia's struggles with logistics, and given how Ukraine is hitting chokepoints like the Chongar bridge, the southern Kherson region is going to become very difficult for Russia to support.  And the further Ukraine penetrates southward from Robotyne and around Tokmak, the worse it's going to get.

jinga nation

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3611 on: August 30, 2023, 11:02:10 AM »
And in the latest development, Ukrainan drones have attacked an airbase in Pskov. The attack has according to initial reports taken out at least four Iljusjin Il-76 transport airplanes belonging to the 76:th VDV.   

Pskov is far far away Ukraine. Check a map. Five other places in Russia was also hit by Ukraine this past night. This is ... interesting.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-attack-russian-air-base-near-estonia-2023-08-30/

Now I just wait for one of these drones to hit Putins little datcha on the Black Sea coast.  If you need a refresher, here is Navalnys documentary:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI  (yes, English subtitles are available).

You know the coolest thing about these latest drone attacks is that the drones are made from Australian cardboard.  You just can't make this stuff up.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21035

What's next rubber band engines?

WTF! Playing with explosive toys, quite literally.
Also this shows Russia's military hardware can be taken out by a wee aircraft supposedly from The Continent Down Under.
Putin's going to love this and make someone disappear from a hospital window, or a plane window, or any window.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3612 on: August 30, 2023, 11:18:50 AM »
You know the coolest thing about these latest drone attacks is that the drones are made from Australian cardboard.  You just can't make this stuff up.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21035

What's next rubber band engines?

Those cardboard drones may not have been used or even existing for that newspaper article do to it's job of messing with the head of the Russians.  :)

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3613 on: August 30, 2023, 12:50:35 PM »
You know the coolest thing about these latest drone attacks is that the drones are made from Australian cardboard.  You just can't make this stuff up.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21035

What's next rubber band engines?

Those cardboard drones may not have been used or even existing for that newspaper article do to it's job of messing with the head of the Russians.  :)

Just the same - It's fun to believe.  I remember playing with Balsa wood toy planes as a kid so it's rather easy.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3614 on: August 31, 2023, 02:19:18 PM »
Holy crap, has anyone ever read a complete list of all the initiatives the Ukrainians have taken to reduce corruption?

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/20938

This needs to be the platform for US politicians if they want my vote! Instead we're moving in the opposite direction.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3615 on: August 31, 2023, 06:55:13 PM »
Holy crap, has anyone ever read a complete list of all the initiatives the Ukrainians have taken to reduce corruption?

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/20938

This needs to be the platform for US politicians if they want my vote! Instead we're moving in the opposite direction.

They have quite the incentive, with EU and NATO membership being on the table.

Aftermath of the drone attack on Pskov airfield: https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1697368961703161887?s=46&t=gYfuVHvKmZFgorOIfb8VfA

Two IL-76 transports burned to the ground, and two others damaged on their wing/fuselage that will keep them grounded for a while.

Regarding the "cardboard" drones, allegedly they were used to attack Kursk airport and may have damaged several aircraft and radar. They deliver shrapnel rather than high explosives, so figuring out what they've actually damaged will be very difficult.

https://vxtwitter.com/NOELreports/status/1697229084957216873

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3616 on: September 01, 2023, 12:56:47 AM »
Thank you @Travis that was interesting photos.


TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3617 on: September 02, 2023, 10:30:19 AM »
If you only look at it from the standpoint of an US army procurement officer, then yes.
But you forget that there are other countries in there supplying, and for most of them it's illegal to use or export cluster munitions.
Not to mention the fears of "this will escalate the war and Putin will make it worse!". Regerdless of how based in reality those fears were, they existed and exist.
The USA alone has millions of cluster munitions in storage which we will never use. If they don't go to Ukraine they will cost us billions of dollars in disposal costs.
Whether France or whomever bans cluster munitions is irrelevant. The US hasn't joined the ban, nor has Poland, Ukraine or Russia. Ship the munitions to Poland, then use rail to get them to Ukraine.
We should flag any batches with high dud rates so that Ukraine can break them down and use the submunitions for arming drones. Dud rate is reduced a lot with individual use.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3618 on: September 03, 2023, 04:35:13 PM »
Reznikov out as Ukrainian Minister of Defense. He's been under fire for months for a couple of procurement scandals that span uniforms, rations, and some aspects of the defense industry. I don't know much yet about his replacement except that apparently he has very strong anti-corruption credentials.

https://www.twitter.com/archer83able/status/1698413078302347712



In more tactical news, the TB-2 drone may be making a comeback in parts of the theater, presumably where large holes have been made in Russian air defenses. 

https://twitter.com/heroiam_slava/status/1698339598651322610?s=46&t=1wvN3l-k86NHIutheYmYPg
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1698441184056574412

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3619 on: September 09, 2023, 05:03:59 AM »
There are probably going to be consequences for Elon Musk at some point:



@TheDeadDistrict

Since then Musk saved the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Russia ships fired 801 "Kalibr" missiles at Ukraine.
What a bloody idiot.


https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1700436197359673653
« Last Edit: September 09, 2023, 05:06:43 AM by PeteD01 »

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3620 on: September 09, 2023, 06:07:46 AM »
What are the consequences of not participating in the war as a civilian?

BC_Goldman

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3621 on: September 09, 2023, 06:14:41 AM »
There are probably going to be consequences for Elon Musk at some point:



@TheDeadDistrict

Since then Musk saved the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Russia ships fired 801 "Kalibr" missiles at Ukraine.
What a bloody idiot.


https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1700436197359673653

Looks like the post has already been removed

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3622 on: September 09, 2023, 06:40:00 AM »
There are probably going to be consequences for Elon Musk at some point:



@TheDeadDistrict

Since then Musk saved the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Russia ships fired 801 "Kalibr" missiles at Ukraine.
What a bloody idiot.


https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1700436197359673653

Looks like the post has already been removed

Not for me - here is a screenshot (and I´m not sure that the number is correct. I've seen others saying that there were more than a thousand. But that does not change the fact that Russia was able to preserve assets due to Musk's actions, and these assets are often used for war crimes against civilians.):

« Last Edit: September 09, 2023, 06:46:42 AM by PeteD01 »

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3623 on: September 09, 2023, 07:03:18 AM »
What are the consequences of not participating in the war as a civilian?

Basically, it comes down to that UAF is in a contract with Starlink, and it does not make a difference if the service is provided for free or not.
If Starlink had simply provided the services as the contractor it is this would not have been an issue, and neither would have been termination of the contract within whatever terms or even just sufficient advance warning.

However, by inserting himself into an ongoing military operation, and likely sabotaging it, he stepped outside of the contractor role.
So the issue is precisely the opposite of what you are saying: Musk became a civilian illegally participating in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Musk is an idiot and probably does not yet understand the consequences.
At the moment it looks like Musk was/is in contact with the Kremlin and doesn't understand that he is an actor in a Russian intelligence operation.
 
« Last Edit: September 09, 2023, 07:06:31 AM by PeteD01 »

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3624 on: September 09, 2023, 08:17:42 AM »
What are the consequences of not participating in the war as a civilian?

Basically, it comes down to that UAF is in a contract with Starlink, and it does not make a difference if the service is provided for free or not.
If Starlink had simply provided the services as the contractor it is this would not have been an issue, and neither would have been termination of the contract within whatever terms or even just sufficient advance warning.

However, by inserting himself into an ongoing military operation, and likely sabotaging it, he stepped outside of the contractor role.
So the issue is precisely the opposite of what you are saying: Musk became a civilian illegally participating in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Musk is an idiot and probably does not yet understand the consequences.
At the moment it looks like Musk was/is in contact with the Kremlin and doesn't understand that he is an actor in a Russian intelligence operation.
I am aware that Musk was "going to war".
That is why I am confused. The Russians can certainly complain about it, but not if he stops it.
Onhte other side, the Ukrainians might not like it, but there is no low forcing an American citizen into a war between 2 countries that aren't the US.

So what consequences?

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3625 on: September 09, 2023, 08:22:02 AM »
Good grief.
There is apparently nobody around Elon Musk able to tell him to shut up.

Here we have this guy who takes it upon himself to recognize the territorial claims of Russia, thereby preventing the destruction of the Russian Black Sea fleet and enabling mass murder of Ukrainian civilians, who defends his actions with having prevented an escalation in the war.

And this oligarch thinks that becoming an actor in this major international war, beyond enabling Russian propaganda on his social network, is a good idea.

Here is a tweet Musk sent out yesterday:

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3626 on: September 09, 2023, 08:30:15 AM »
What are the consequences of not participating in the war as a civilian?

Basically, it comes down to that UAF is in a contract with Starlink, and it does not make a difference if the service is provided for free or not.
If Starlink had simply provided the services as the contractor it is this would not have been an issue, and neither would have been termination of the contract within whatever terms or even just sufficient advance warning.

However, by inserting himself into an ongoing military operation, and likely sabotaging it, he stepped outside of the contractor role.
So the issue is precisely the opposite of what you are saying: Musk became a civilian illegally participating in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Musk is an idiot and probably does not yet understand the consequences.
At the moment it looks like Musk was/is in contact with the Kremlin and doesn't understand that he is an actor in a Russian intelligence operation.
I am aware that Musk was "going to war".
That is why I am confused. The Russians can certainly complain about it, but not if he stops it.
Onhte other side, the Ukrainians might not like it, but there is no low forcing an American citizen into a war between 2 countries that aren't the US.

So what consequences?

I posted a tweet from Musk above.

He obviously believes that there is no problem with a private actor engaging in recognizing illegal territorial claims by Russia and making this recognition the basis for essentially protecting an entire fleet from destruction.

This is crazy - but, at the end of the day, it will fall to people like this guy to accept Musk's excuses or not:
« Last Edit: September 09, 2023, 08:39:11 AM by PeteD01 »

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3627 on: September 09, 2023, 09:15:18 AM »
Here is more about Musk's activities as a Kremlin asset:



Musk, Starlink and hypocrisy: Elon's "Benedict Arnold" moment shows U.S. can't have it both ways

Are we going to regulate tech billionaires so they don't determine the outcome of Ukraine's fight, or nah?

By RAE HODGE
SEPTEMBER 8, 2023 7:29PM (EDT


"How am I in this war?" Musk asked Isaacson. "Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes."

I can answer that question for Musk. He's in this war because he aggressively lobbied for — and four months ago successfully won — a Pentagon contract. Specifically, Musk was contracted to provide the Ukraine with battlefield communications via Starlink so Ukraine could defend against Russian invasion and root out occupiers of its territory — territory like the Crimean coast.

But that doesn't seem to matter to Musk now that he's seemingly crowned himself Ukraine's de-facto turn-coat.

"Both sides should agree to a truce. Every day that passes, more Ukrainian and Russian youth die to gain and lose small pieces of land, with borders barely changing. This is not worth their lives," he tweeted Thursday.

Musk wanted in this war, and now that he's in it, he's admitted to sabotaging the side that contracted him. And none of us should be surprised. In October 2022, Musk proposed just letting Russia have, via referendum, whatever Ukrainian territory it had already invaded and occupied. One wonders if Musk would agree to hand over half of SpaceX in appeasement if some gun-toting maniacs broke into his launch sites.



https://www.salon.com/2023/09/08/musk-starlink-and-hypocrisy-elons-benedict-arnold-moment-shows-us-cant-have-it-both-ways/

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3628 on: September 09, 2023, 09:36:13 AM »
So what are the penalties for accepting a military support pentagon contract and then unilaterally making decisions that go against the interests of the pentagon?

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3629 on: September 09, 2023, 09:51:54 AM »
So what are the penalties for accepting a military support pentagon contract and then unilaterally making decisions that go against the interests of the pentagon?

There are two sides to it. One would be the US perspective and I do not know the penalties for that. If the US were officially at war with Russia, this would be treasonous conduct and I believe the maximum penalty for such offenses is capital punishment, AFAIK.

The second perspective is the Ukrainian. I think we can be reasonably sure that Ukraine has identified Musk as a Russian asset. Ukraine will likely continue to engage in intelligence operations, information warfare, and diplomatic efforts.

There is also talk about the illegality of a private citizen engaging in acts of war and Ukraine might pursue that in the courts.



Elon Musk and the west’s fascist fifth column

NICK COHEN
SEP 9, 2023


Who the hell does he think he is? No one has elected Musk, and yet he is running his own foreign policy and providing military aid to a hostile foreign power.

Silicon Valley is proving to be one hell of a lesson to those who thought that democracy and capitalism inevitably grow together. Musk is an ally of democracy’s enemies, and not just an ideological ally but a practical ally who is able through his businesses to provide concrete support to the Kremlin. Musk can ally with Putin without embarrassment because his very business success has inflated his self-importance, and made him think that he ought to be seen and deserves to be seen by the world  a colossus who bestrides the narrow world.



https://nickcohen.substack.com/p/elon-musk-and-the-wests-fascist-fifth?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
« Last Edit: September 09, 2023, 11:21:09 AM by PeteD01 »

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3630 on: September 09, 2023, 10:33:15 AM »
So what are the penalties for accepting a military support pentagon contract and then unilaterally making decisions that go against the interests of the pentagon?

I believe the Starlink coverage in question was being provided to the Ukrainian government either on their dime or the Pentagon's, but since then the contract has shifted to be in more DoD control. The current contract probably has clauses like "this is a weapon system and Ukraine can use it however the DoD wants." If Musk messed with that, there would be civil and maybe criminal consequences. Last year he made the case that putting Starlink on a drone made it a weapon system and therefore outside the TOS. He didn't have a problem when it was clearly being used as a battlefield comms system to move forces and call artillery. Then we got Tweets from him that he talked personally to Putin, parroted Russia's talking points, and told Miles Chong in a Tweet that he wants to find a way to end the war because it bothers him on a personal level. Aside from lighting a match under future DoD contracts, he's also positioned himself as a private citizen trying to affect foreign policy. Neither are healthy long term positions to take.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3631 on: September 09, 2023, 02:18:45 PM »
Musk is having conversations with a hostile foreign power and then taking actions that negatively impact a U.S. ally? Isn’t this espionage?

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3632 on: September 09, 2023, 02:37:46 PM »
Musk is having conversations with a hostile foreign power and then taking actions that negatively impact a U.S. ally? Isn’t this espionage?

For all that we know, Musk did it in pursuit of of his own interest.
Espionage implies spying for some state entity.
Calling him a rogue actor is probably more accurate.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3633 on: September 10, 2023, 07:39:06 AM »
Elon Musk needs his wings clipped.
This piece pretty much sums it up:


The U.S. Government Can’t Allow Elon Musk the Power to Intervene in Wars
INVESTIGATE, CONGRESS

The billionaire’s interference in Ukrainian military operations shows he’s a national security risk. No private citizen should have that much power.


Nicholas Grossman
Sep. 09, 2023 12:28PM EDT


Congress should exercise its oversight powers and look into both SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine and the extent of American dependence on Musk’s company.

At minimum, it’s an information security risk.

Isaacson says Musk texted him about the Ukrainian sea drones headed to Crimea as he was trying to decide what to do. No one should be telling journalists about secret military operations as they’re happening.

Elon Musk especially shouldn’t be in position to, given his direct contact with foreign officials, and his apparent affinity for online trolls, including contributors to Russian state media outlet RT.

He’s free to associate with whomever he wants, and to express his opinions about the war (even if he doesn’t know what he’s talking about and has vast means to spread his thoughts widely).

But a defense contractor controlled by one volatile personality, who is at best ignorant of international power politics and susceptible to Russian propaganda, and does not respect that national security decisions are up to governments rather than him personally, is not someone the United States should consider a reliable business partner.

The ultimate problem here is not that Musk made bad decisions for bad reasons—though he did—it’s that no private individual should be in position to make decisions like that at all.

The only one who should be able to control equipment in American military operations is America.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-government-cant-allow-elon-musk-the-power-to-intervene-in-wars?ref=home

LaineyAZ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3634 on: September 10, 2023, 08:14:22 AM »
Maybe the real lesson is that the American military has gone too far in outsourcing vital segments to 3rd party contractors.
 
Outsourcing was accelerated under Bush/Cheney and made many people very wealthy.  Now here we are wondering how Musk was able to make a unilateral military decision.

Just like it was discovered during Covid that we'd made ourselves vulnerable in areas like microchips which are mostly made outside the U.S. and the current administration responded by funding production in the U.S. again, I think we need a hard look at what should and should not be allowed to be done by non-military actors.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3635 on: September 10, 2023, 10:49:40 AM »
Again, putting aside that he seems to have a contract with the US DoD, there is nothing you can do agaisnt a civilian not taking part in a fight.

THe the only question is: How is a breach of contract with the military legally punishable? Normally, if you don't do as per contract, the money does not get paid and you might have to pay for monetary damage.

But what is the monetary damage of not providing a foreign military with data access for the DoD?
I think that is untrodden territory, because nothing like that happened before, it was normally the military that had the better tech, and that it is about the benefit of a third party does not make it easier.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3636 on: September 10, 2023, 11:29:16 AM »
You seem to be assuming that monetary consequences are the only possibility. I am not sure of that at all. If the CIA or someone has a strong enough incentive to weaken Russia, and Musk is interfering with that then someone may take more definitive action. Plenty of examples in history.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3637 on: September 10, 2023, 11:38:53 AM »
You seem to be assuming that monetary consequences are the only possibility. I am not sure of that at all. If the CIA or someone has a strong enough incentive to weaken Russia, and Musk is interfering with that then someone may take more definitive action. Plenty of examples in history.
I was speaking about legally.

Dancin'Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3638 on: September 10, 2023, 12:09:50 PM »
I can't help but wonder when Musk will shave his head and get a cat. 

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3639 on: September 10, 2023, 12:14:56 PM »
I can't help but wonder when Musk will shave his head and get a cat.

He was bald when he was working on PayPal.  Turns out enough money can buy some very good hair plugs.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3640 on: September 10, 2023, 03:10:09 PM »
I can't help but wonder when Musk will shave his head and get a cat.

He was bald when he was working on PayPal.  Turns out enough money can buy some very good hair plugs.

So he just needs the hairless cat and the pinkie ring?

Glenstache

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3641 on: September 11, 2023, 10:10:05 AM »
I can't help but wonder when Musk will shave his head and get a cat.
This is the post of the week as far as I'm concerned.

SunnyDays

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3642 on: September 11, 2023, 10:17:44 AM »
I can't help but wonder when Musk will shave his head and get a cat.
This is the post of the week as far as I'm concerned.

Someone fill me in on the meaning of this.  I'm in the dark.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3643 on: September 11, 2023, 10:19:52 AM »
I can't help but wonder when Musk will shave his head and get a cat.
This is the post of the week as far as I'm concerned.
Someone fill me in on the meaning of this.  I'm in the dark.

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3644 on: September 11, 2023, 12:09:46 PM »
You seem to be assuming that monetary consequences are the only possibility. I am not sure of that at all. If the CIA or someone has a strong enough incentive to weaken Russia, and Musk is interfering with that then someone may take more definitive action. Plenty of examples in history.

I do wonder if the financial sanctions damage the dollar's standing as the reserve currency. It's not like the other 'BRICS' countries didn't notice how the US froze $billions of Russian-owned US Treasuries and other securities. If we weaponize the US dollar and associated debt instruments, we are also lessening its global appeal to many who don't always agree with US policy.

simonsez

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3645 on: September 11, 2023, 12:32:24 PM »
I can't help but wonder when Musk will shave his head and get a cat.
This is the post of the week as far as I'm concerned.
I had to wipe off the laptop screen after I read that.  Luckily it was just water, but still, I don't often percussively guffaw at online material like that post made me.

partgypsy

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3646 on: September 11, 2023, 01:15:11 PM »
Musk needs to move to Russia if he likes it so much

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3647 on: September 11, 2023, 01:42:13 PM »
Musk needs to move to Russia if he likes it so much
O.o and here so many people tried to not provoke Russia into escalating the war!

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3648 on: September 11, 2023, 01:57:48 PM »
I'm surprised that all this military satellite traffic isn't encrypted better. Why should Musk be able to see the Ukrainian information transiting the satellites in the first place?

If I was a corporate or government user, I would want assurances that my traffic was not readable by anyone anywhere along the network.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3649 on: September 11, 2023, 05:00:30 PM »
I'm surprised that all this military satellite traffic isn't encrypted better. Why should Musk be able to see the Ukrainian information transiting the satellites in the first place?

If I was a corporate or government user, I would want assurances that my traffic was not readable by anyone anywhere along the network.

I don't think he is. The issue is that he geofenced the terminals from functioning past a certain point on the map. A satellite service provider knows when traffic is going across their network, but not what the data actually contains unless it was unencrypted.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!