Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 772078 times)

Imma

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2350 on: October 01, 2022, 11:58:49 AM »
Putin is now in a position where he can only make "stupid" moves. At the moment he is putting out every thread he can get his hands on in a try to make weak western governments go back with their help through "we will freeze!" public pressure, "he will use atomic bombs" etc.

If this is the case, he overestimates the average person.  We can't plan ahead enough to prevent getting hit by credit card fines-- we can't even get it together to wear masks during a pandemic, or fight climate change even when we're flooded every other year, or stop drinking or smoking-- what makes him think that the average voter in a Western country would get off their butts to pressure governments about high gas prices that are going to happen, or worry about atomic bombing that has never happened before in their country?

I guess I could see people beginning to agitate about a month after it gets really cold and gas bills arrive...
I gues you are from the US?
I can assure you people here in Germany are VERY concerned about gas prices. And the older generations grew up with the knowledge that their homes would be the center of any war between East and West, including the atomice one.
Of course media pushing this up is part of the process. (Including predictions from several sides that the gas prices might result in a "revolution" if we get a cold winter.)

There are also theories that there is an agreement that Putin does nothing to other countries as long as NATO does not send battle tanks (so far none have been given to Ukraine, despite Ukraine asking about once per week to give them e.g. the 40 Leopard I standing ready at the producer)
Demands to also send tanks have been increasing a lot since the successful attack, so the pipelines could have been a counterpressure. - Everything completely speculation though.

Can confirm it's the same in NL. The average monthly energy payment is about five times as high as it was last year. We went from €75 to around €350. We are a rich but very frugal small household. We have friends with kids who are facing energy bills higher than their mortgage even though their consumption is not excessive (all the family members wash frequently but they don't spend half an hour in the shower, they don't have a heated pool or six freezers). We can afford it but food, gas and energy bills have become so high that many on a low-income can no longer afford them. There's a huge demand on food banks, everyone is angry, inflation is 17%, everyone hates the government. This feels way worse than anything related to Covid.

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2351 on: October 01, 2022, 08:27:06 PM »
It seems like Russia might be in the upswing of a smile curve of failure. A smile curve applies to fragile systems, for example a car or a human. Most deaths or failures occur at the beginning, and are covered by lemon laws, warranties, and increased attention of doctors and governments. Then there is a period where the occurrence of breakdowns/deaths is very low, for example the lowest death rate for humans is after about 10 years old and cars about 4 years old. Finally, age starts to weigh, and failures/deaths increase until every one is dead. The Russian equipment losses per day started off astronomically, but then the stupidest plans and people died, and their losses declined to a low of about 13 per day by the end of August. Since then they have been increasing again. This could be a sign that Russia is in terminal failure mode, and the end of the smile will increase until they are gone. I have seen but cannot find charts from the beginning of the invasion, but here is one which covers recent weeks: https://twitter.com/alfabetaceta5/status/1576333733979824129/photo/1

The implication is that Ukraine is not in an equipment loss upswing, indicating that Ukraine is a resilient (or even anti-fragile, meaning it becomes stronger with stress) system, while Russia is a fragile system which is unable to regenerate or improve itself.

The question is, is Russia's mobilization going to help? In the medium term no (anti-fragile vs fragile leads to an obvious outcome) but in the short term it depends on what their mode of failure will be. As an example of modes of failure, take a high retaining wall which holds back a large amount of soil. It could fail by overturning, or settling, or sliding, or rotational failure, or others. Stacking a big pile of rocks along its foot will help prevent rotational failure and sliding, won't help overturning much, and will make settlement worse. Will legions of untrained light infantry help mitigate whatever Russia's failure mode would be? I have read that lack of infantry has been a Russian weak point, but I have also read that poor logistics and lack of training are weak points, and obviously any sort of strategy or tactics or planning is a weak point, which mobilization will not help, so I surmise that mobilization will not substantially delay Russia's failure.

While I am making bold predictions, I think Ukraine's winter offensive will be across the Dnipro reservoir. They are supposed to be receiving a bunch of bridges and boats and air defence systems between now and December, and it is the obvious weak point in Russian lines. They will wait for a series of cloudy/foggy days, and boom. (I keep making bold predictions and they keep being right, so might as well go all in.)

Longstanding side note: Russia and France and Netherlands and like 5 other countries badly need a redesigned flag. Three red white and blue stripes: not very original!

« Last Edit: October 01, 2022, 08:29:07 PM by Radagast »

maizefolk

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2352 on: October 01, 2022, 08:55:00 PM »
Longstanding side note: Russia and France and Netherlands and like 5 other countries badly need a redesigned flag. Three red white and blue stripes: not very original!

I've always felt countries whose flags have been around since the age of sail get a pass on creative flag design. A small handful of primary colors that are easy to distinguish at a distance, even after different amounts of weathering and fading and with both the flag and the lookout being tossed about by waves, arranged in different orders and/or rotated between horizontal and vertical was definitely the way to go back then.

Is it a coincidence that Nebraska, the only triply land-locked state in the nation, has what is largely regarded as one of the worst designed flags ever? Almost certainly, yes, it is a coincidence. But still a fun bit of trivia to bring up in this context.

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2353 on: October 01, 2022, 10:38:00 PM »
Longstanding side note: Russia and France and Netherlands and like 5 other countries badly need a redesigned flag. Three red white and blue stripes: not very original!

I've always felt countries whose flags have been around since the age of sail get a pass on creative flag design. A small handful of primary colors that are easy to distinguish at a distance, even after different amounts of weathering and fading and with both the flag and the lookout being tossed about by waves, arranged in different orders and/or rotated between horizontal and vertical was definitely the way to go back then.

Is it a coincidence that Nebraska, the only triply land-locked state in the nation, has what is largely regarded as one of the worst designed flags ever? Almost certainly, yes, it is a coincidence. But still a fun bit of trivia to bring up in this context.
Some counterpoints: the Luxembourg flag fades into one of those (France?). Russia and Ukraine both had the chance to redesign their flags after the fall of the Soviet Union, and I never mistook the even simpler Ukrainian flag. Maritime signals are full of distinctive pennants that don't resemble any of the above.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2354 on: October 02, 2022, 12:30:52 AM »
Can confirm it's the same in NL. The average monthly energy payment is about five times as high as it was last year. We went from €75 to around €350. We are a rich but very frugal small household. We have friends with kids who are facing energy bills higher than their mortgage even though their consumption is not excessive (all the family members wash frequently but they don't spend half an hour in the shower, they don't have a heated pool or six freezers). We can afford it but food, gas and energy bills have become so high that many on a low-income can no longer afford them. There's a huge demand on food banks, everyone is angry, inflation is 17%, everyone hates the government. This feels way worse than anything related to Covid.

Have you seen a urban / rural split in these effects?  When I travelled through NL this past summer I saw all those red scarves on car mirrors up on the rural northwest, which I took to be a protest against the government.

In my country, it seems that rural and suburban people are hit much harder than those of us who live in apartments in the city.  A large part of this is naturally energy prices, as people in their own houses are hit directly by the heating costs, while a rented apartment (and with the form of almost-rent control we have here) makes the price hikes slower.  Add the increased need of cars outside of the city to that and it's amplified. 

This seems to have amplified the city vs country side-difference in voting in our recent government elections, and strengthening an urban-left and rural-right trend in the political landscape.  This is kind of new here, it used to be more economical divides and not geographical.

I've not yet heard any pro-Russian sentiments in any of the major political parties (as in "seats in the parliament") though.  Some of the far left have had a peace-focus that can be seen as a giving a pro-Russian stance in the next level of analysis, but no-one says "Yay Putin!" out loud at least.  To say "Boo NATO! Boo USA!" is more common, but again mainly on the political extremes.

And in more pipeline related news, we've started seeing information that Swedish warships was present near the sabotage sites in the days before the detonations.  The Navy declines to comment if there is any connection or if they had any intelligence about the sabotage.

Another try with Google Translate to a Swedish source:  https://www-svt-se.translate.goog/nyheter/inrikes/svenska-marinens-fartyg-i-omradet-inte-ett-sammantraffande?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Mr FrugalNL

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2355 on: October 02, 2022, 02:39:48 AM »
Some counterpoints: the Luxembourg flag fades into one of those (France?). Russia and Ukraine both had the chance to redesign their flags after the fall of the Soviet Union, and I never mistook the even simpler Ukrainian flag. Maritime signals are full of distinctive pennants that don't resemble any of the above.

For the record it's the Netherlands' flag that fades into Luxembourg's flag. There have been instances of foreign countries mistakenly hoisting Luxembourg's flag at sporting events attended by Dutch athletes or even when hosting the Dutch monarch. Embarassing, but understandable given the similarity.

Can confirm it's the same in NL. The average monthly energy payment is about five times as high as it was last year. We went from €75 to around €350. We are a rich but very frugal small household. We have friends with kids who are facing energy bills higher than their mortgage even though their consumption is not excessive (all the family members wash frequently but they don't spend half an hour in the shower, they don't have a heated pool or six freezers). We can afford it but food, gas and energy bills have become so high that many on a low-income can no longer afford them. There's a huge demand on food banks, everyone is angry, inflation is 17%, everyone hates the government. This feels way worse than anything related to Covid.

Have you seen a urban / rural split in these effects?  When I travelled through NL this past summer I saw all those red scarves on car mirrors up on the rural northwest, which I took to be a protest against the government.

In my country, it seems that rural and suburban people are hit much harder than those of us who live in apartments in the city.  A large part of this is naturally energy prices, as people in their own houses are hit directly by the heating costs, while a rented apartment (and with the form of almost-rent control we have here) makes the price hikes slower.  Add the increased need of cars outside of the city to that and it's amplified. 

This seems to have amplified the city vs country side-difference in voting in our recent government elections, and strengthening an urban-left and rural-right trend in the political landscape.  This is kind of new here, it used to be more economical divides and not geographical.

I've not yet heard any pro-Russian sentiments in any of the major political parties (as in "seats in the parliament") though.  Some of the far left have had a peace-focus that can be seen as a giving a pro-Russian stance in the next level of analysis, but no-one says "Yay Putin!" out loud at least.  To say "Boo NATO! Boo USA!" is more common, but again mainly on the political extremes.

There is definitely an urban/rural split in Dutch politics, but it's not related to rising energy prices.

In terms of energy prices there is widespread support for subsidising the energy consumption of those hit the hardest, who were overwhelmingly struggling to begin with. The split, if any, is between the coalition parties and the opposition parties, with the latter criticising the former for taking too little action too late. At the risk of overgeneralising I'd say the coalition is more centrist whereas the opposition represents the more extreme (but not necessarily extremist!) ends of the political spectrum.

The urban/rural split has different causes. For a long time there has been growing discontent in rural areas about a wide range of topics. Public services such as public transportation in rural areas has been lagging behind those in urban areas or even deteriorated. Desirable and well-paying jobs are far more common in the cities than in the country.  Many rural areas have been seeing an outflux of people, especially the young, the highly educated and women. The demographic make-up of some rural areas has consequently been trending toward older people and men with low levels of education. Due to the demographic and economic decline, businesses have been withdrawing from the smallest villages especially, so gone are the days that each village had its own bank, supermarket etc. Rural areas have also tended to hold more conservative views on gay, trans and animal rights, racism, immigration and so on and have complained about progressive cultural norms being imposed on them by city-based lawmakers and activists. Parties on the fringes of the political spectrum get an outsized part of their support from such areas.

I should stress by the way that the urban/rural split in the Netherlands is only a matter of relative deprivation. Dutch rural areas are still far more desirable to live in than, say, rural areas in Russia. Given the Netherlands' population density, 'rural' areas in the Dutch context are also far denser and better connected than those in France or Germany, let alone the US or Russia.

The simmering resentment that has been building up in rural areas for years came to a head with the 'nitrogen crisis'. The Netherlands as a whole has been emitting far too much nitrogen to meet environmental standards for decades. Many ecosystems are threatened as a result. Dutch politicians have been neglecting to deal with this for decades because it would bring them into conflict with strong vested interests and jeopardise their re-election. As a result of environmentalist organisations successfully suing the government and the EU ending certain emission exemptions, Dutch politicians have now finally been forced to take action. Their proposed policies have targeted Dutch farmers because the agricultural sector's nitrogen emissions are disproportionately high relative to its share of GDP. Other major emitters, like heavy industry and transportation, have so far not been targeted. This has generated a great deal of unrest and protests in rural areas, some of which you saw during your visit. It's a double tragedy because the nitrogen crisis need never have become a crisis if it had been tackled earlier and because the belated government response has, in my view, been badly mismanaged.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2356 on: October 02, 2022, 02:49:38 AM »
Thanks for the explanation, Mr FrugalNL

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2357 on: October 02, 2022, 04:20:01 AM »
Id' say it's the same in all countries. And the more you depend on fossil fuels (travel by car, heating a single family house, fertilizer) they harder you are hit - and not the first time.


Looking at Russia it seems like the new recruits will be too late to the party. Which is why some of them have already been sent to the front, some even without any prior training. But well, they are mostly Asien minorities, so literally the unimportant.

SotI

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2358 on: October 02, 2022, 06:01:17 AM »
Id' say it's the same in all countries. And the more you depend on fossil fuels (travel by car, heating a single family house, fertilizer) they harder you are hit - and not the first time.
Not quite sure about that - other than agreeing that there is a fundamental distrust of the rural and peripheral regions towards urban "zeitgeist".

In terms of crisis resilience, I consider rural regions way better prepared to deal with energy and supply chain issues. People in the rural regions got space, storage, equipment and know-how. And at least in CEE, but I would also think in Scandinavia, many who work in the cities still got families and dachas/cabins out in the sticks.

And before it gets too far off-topic: Russia will use whatever leverage to destabilize the EU. As mentioned before, while Putin may want to fulfill his imperial dreams in Ukraine, his due belief in the weakness if the "decadent" west will ensure that he would love to see its collapse in Europe.


PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2359 on: October 02, 2022, 11:24:40 AM »
« Last Edit: October 02, 2022, 11:29:58 AM by PeteD01 »

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2360 on: October 02, 2022, 12:13:18 PM »
Looks like Russian defensive lines north of Kherson are collapsing:


https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576606681865150464

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1576611568942387200

Damn, you were faster ^^

If the Russian propagandists were already confused how to spin the North, I wonder how they do the South where the army actually is.
Another big area ruse by the Russian army? They want the Ukrainians take everything back, overstretch and then roll them?

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2361 on: October 02, 2022, 12:47:06 PM »
Another big area ruse by the Russian army? They want the Ukrainians take everything back, overstretch and then roll them?

Not sure if you are serious, but that is way way beyond Russian operational capabilities.

Telecaster

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2362 on: October 02, 2022, 07:45:25 PM »
The question is, is Russia's mobilization going to help? In the medium term no (anti-fragile vs fragile leads to an obvious outcome) but in the short term it depends on what their mode of failure will be. As an example of modes of failure, take a high retaining wall which holds back a large amount of soil. It could fail by overturning, or settling, or sliding, or rotational failure, or others. Stacking a big pile of rocks along its foot will help prevent rotational failure and sliding, won't help overturning much, and will make settlement worse. Will legions of untrained light infantry help mitigate whatever Russia's failure mode would be? I have read that lack of infantry has been a Russian weak point, but I have also read that poor logistics and lack of training are weak points, and obviously any sort of strategy or tactics or planning is a weak point, which mobilization will not help, so I surmise that mobilization will not substantially delay Russia's failure.

I think mobilization with hasten Russia's failure.  As I understand it, the old Soviet system maintained skeleton units with officers and NCOs, but almost no enlisted men.  The idea was that in the event of mass conscription, the draftees could be plugged immediately into an existing unit and get trained up there.  So Russia lacks big military training facilities like we have in the west.  But Russia also did not maintain the skeleton units.  So there is no real way the conscripts can be trained up until they join their units, many of which are deployed on the front lines.

There are many examples throughout history--the Mongols are a good example--where a well-trained, sophisticated military can defeat a numerically superior force.  The Russians are straight up bad at combined arms.  Ukraine is pretty good and getting better.  We've seen twice, maybe three times now, that once the Russian lines start to break, they break all at once and can't recover. 

What I *think* is going to happen, is we'll so more and more of these incidents where after a period of hard fighting the Russians will break and retreat in poor order.  Putting masses of under trained, under equipped troops on the front lines will very likely exacerbate that problem. 

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2363 on: October 02, 2022, 08:13:47 PM »
The question is, is Russia's mobilization going to help? In the medium term no (anti-fragile vs fragile leads to an obvious outcome) but in the short term it depends on what their mode of failure will be. As an example of modes of failure, take a high retaining wall which holds back a large amount of soil. It could fail by overturning, or settling, or sliding, or rotational failure, or others. Stacking a big pile of rocks along its foot will help prevent rotational failure and sliding, won't help overturning much, and will make settlement worse. Will legions of untrained light infantry help mitigate whatever Russia's failure mode would be? I have read that lack of infantry has been a Russian weak point, but I have also read that poor logistics and lack of training are weak points, and obviously any sort of strategy or tactics or planning is a weak point, which mobilization will not help, so I surmise that mobilization will not substantially delay Russia's failure.

I think mobilization with hasten Russia's failure.  As I understand it, the old Soviet system maintained skeleton units with officers and NCOs, but almost no enlisted men.  The idea was that in the event of mass conscription, the draftees could be plugged immediately into an existing unit and get trained up there.  So Russia lacks big military training facilities like we have in the west.  But Russia also did not maintain the skeleton units.  So there is no real way the conscripts can be trained up until they join their units, many of which are deployed on the front lines.

There are many examples throughout history--the Mongols are a good example--where a well-trained, sophisticated military can defeat a numerically superior force.  The Russians are straight up bad at combined arms.  Ukraine is pretty good and getting better.  We've seen twice, maybe three times now, that once the Russian lines start to break, they break all at once and can't recover. 

What I *think* is going to happen, is we'll so more and more of these incidents where after a period of hard fighting the Russians will break and retreat in poor order.  Putting masses of under trained, under equipped troops on the front lines will very likely exacerbate that problem.

Speaking of breaking.... I'm seeing all sorts of things saying that Russian lines are collapsing at Kherson.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2364 on: October 02, 2022, 08:19:09 PM »
And it sounds like Ukraine is continuing to push northeast from Lyman, toward the road between Kreminna and Svatove. That road represents the only good support/logistics line for Kreminna.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2365 on: October 03, 2022, 07:43:03 AM »
Russia wanted to do a lot of finding out... using this method: https://youtube.com/shorts/EYEDD2l0YUw

Winter is coming. Logistics is key. At this point, how much will Ukraine recapture of their lands before deep winter sets in? A lot, or a fuck ton?

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2366 on: October 03, 2022, 08:39:23 AM »
Russia wanted to do a lot of finding out... using this method: https://youtube.com/shorts/EYEDD2l0YUw

Winter is coming. Logistics is key. At this point, how much will Ukraine recapture of their lands before deep winter sets in? A lot, or a fuck ton?
Actually, the onset of winter won't stop military action.  If anything, the fall rains and mud will slow things down, until the temperature drops enough that the ground freezes and vehicles can go off road again.

There are reports now that 1.5 million uniforms went "missing" from Russian stocks.  More likely, they never existed anywhere but on paper.  In the meantime, NATO countries are stockpiling Ukraine with all sorts of the best winter gear.  And I've heard stories that Russian conscripts are being instructed to bring all their own equipment.  Winter is shaping up to be brutal on the Russian armed forces.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2367 on: October 03, 2022, 09:22:12 AM »
For descriptions of winter war in this part of the world, the book "Stalingrad" by Antony Beevor might be worth a read.   It is however not a fun read in any way. 

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2368 on: October 03, 2022, 10:13:59 PM »
Russia wanted to do a lot of finding out... using this method: https://youtube.com/shorts/EYEDD2l0YUw

Winter is coming. Logistics is key. At this point, how much will Ukraine recapture of their lands before deep winter sets in? A lot, or a fuck ton?
Actually, the onset of winter won't stop military action.  If anything, the fall rains and mud will slow things down, until the temperature drops enough that the ground freezes and vehicles can go off road again.

There are reports now that 1.5 million uniforms went "missing" from Russian stocks.  More likely, they never existed anywhere but on paper.  In the meantime, NATO countries are stockpiling Ukraine with all sorts of the best winter gear.  And I've heard stories that Russian conscripts are being instructed to bring all their own equipment.  Winter is shaping up to be brutal on the Russian armed forces.
Also agreed. Along with mud, I'd think changing weather would make things hard: dry --> mud --> frozen solid --> mud would make planning even a short offensive difficult because enemy capabilities could be unpredictable. But pure freezing winter seems unpleasant but not an impediment. Based on what I've seen, winter will be a disaster for Russia in the field.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2369 on: October 04, 2022, 07:20:20 AM »
It appears that RU has ordered a large scale retreat in northern Kherson - although rumor has it that it might be too late for an orderly withdrawal from an already collapsing RU defensive line in Kherson.


https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1577281549908602882
« Last Edit: October 04, 2022, 02:09:44 PM by PeteD01 »

BicycleB

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2370 on: October 04, 2022, 12:37:35 PM »
I've heard it said that conducting an orderly retreat is one of the most difficult actions in war.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2371 on: October 04, 2022, 01:47:08 PM »
I've heard it said that conducting an orderly retreat is one of the most difficult actions in war.
Nichts ist schwerer als der Rückzug aus einer unhaltbaren Position. - Clausewitz

Nothing is harder than the retreat from an undefensible position.


lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2372 on: October 04, 2022, 06:14:14 PM »
Not sure if anyone has posted any of the 1420 interviews on here, but this one was especially bleak. Enjoy!

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2373 on: October 04, 2022, 07:12:54 PM »
I doubt that data is available, but updated demographic projections for Russia might be interesting. Russia started the war with a demographic decline in its future. Since then, they've had hundreds of thousands of people flee Russia, plus tens of thousands of soldiers die, and now they've got more people (mostly men) fleeing conscription. At what point does it move the needle on the demographics? Yes, Russia started with 144+ million people, but they were already facing an aging population and low birthrate, killing off (or driving off) the men who would father the next generation is not going to help.

Then there's economic impacts of all these people fleeing or dying, and those who will survive but be disabled.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2374 on: October 04, 2022, 07:23:32 PM »
Not sure if anyone has posted any of the 1420 interviews on here, but this one was especially bleak. Enjoy!

I think that makes sense.  He's interviewing all older people.  Old Russians don't know shit about getting around Russian internet censors.  They get all their news from the TV, which Putin has an iron fist of control on.  When you only present one argument to people, that's what people are going to believe is the truth.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2375 on: October 04, 2022, 07:47:18 PM »
Not sure if anyone has posted any of the 1420 interviews on here, but this one was especially bleak. Enjoy!

That was not easy to watch. 

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2376 on: October 04, 2022, 08:24:26 PM »
Not sure if anyone has posted any of the 1420 interviews on here, but this one was especially bleak. Enjoy!

I think that makes sense.  He's interviewing all older people.  Old Russians don't know shit about getting around Russian internet censors.  They get all their news from the TV, which Putin has an iron fist of control on.  When you only present one argument to people, that's what people are going to believe is the truth.

It sort of reminded me a bit of the stuff you saw on TV for the Bush-Cheney war with Iraq.  You may recall there was a lot of patriotic fervor at that time.  I had a conversation with a guy who watched a lot of TV and told me that the folks over there wanted to come here and take away our freedoms.  After a little thought I told him that it looks like a lot of work to go half way around the world to take away freedoms from people they didn't know.  The guy told me, "I guess I never thought about it that way."  These older Russians fit the same mold.

If Ukraine comes out on top, a gentle re-education should be in the peace treaty.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2377 on: October 04, 2022, 11:01:52 PM »
Hopefully most of the Russian troops will starve or have such severe frostbite they can’t fire their weapons. From what I’ve read, most civilians have left those areas. Thus starting a fire for warmth will lead to a volley of mortars. Options then are to starve, freeze, or surrender. Choice is theirs, and there is always a choice.

Poundwise

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2378 on: October 05, 2022, 06:11:59 AM »
When you realize that the Russian soldiers' families are being incentivized by/compensated for the loss of their men with the gift of a goat, sheep, or even 5kg of fish it is sad. From Putin's perspective it's a win-win to bleed off the young men from these impoverished and potentially disloyal areas, and throw them into a foreign war.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2379 on: October 05, 2022, 06:37:46 AM »
When you realize that the Russian soldiers' families are being incentivized by/compensated for the loss of their men with the gift of a goat, sheep, or even 5kg of fish it is sad. From Putin's perspective it's a win-win to bleed off the young men from these impoverished and potentially disloyal areas, and throw them into a foreign war.
It's nearly like they were Afghan civilians killed by the US! At least those got money and could decide if they want to buy a goat or fish!

------

Another article stating what many have said earlier, that the Ukrainians didn't push as much as they have could in the south since their main goal there is to whittle down the enemy.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/russian-forces-cling-to-kherson-against-military-logic-trapped-by-kremlins-annexation-claims

To put it in culinary terms: The Ukrainians have pushed the Russian cheese into the soft hands of the Dnipr and applying the grater to it after making a lot of holes into the cheese.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2022, 07:48:41 AM by LennStar »

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2380 on: October 05, 2022, 08:41:29 AM »
A reporter asked a Ukrainian soldier about the Russian mobilization of 300k troops.  He replied something like "our machine gunners can kill 5 or 50 Russian soldiers, it won't make them tired".

I see a lot of posturing from Russia right now, and not a lot of results.  Moving nukes around... showing videos of new soldiers being trained... claiming regions as their own.  All distractions from losing ground.

Is there a website tracking square kilometers occupied by Russians (in Ukraine / Crimea)?  It would make an interesting countdown timer.

dividendman

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2381 on: October 05, 2022, 09:14:59 AM »
A reporter asked a Ukrainian soldier about the Russian mobilization of 300k troops.  He replied something like "our machine gunners can kill 5 or 50 Russian soldiers, it won't make them tired".

I see a lot of posturing from Russia right now, and not a lot of results.  Moving nukes around... showing videos of new soldiers being trained... claiming regions as their own.  All distractions from losing ground.

Is there a website tracking square kilometers occupied by Russians (in Ukraine / Crimea)?  It would make an interesting countdown timer.

I think the posturing is to keep the support of their own population, it's not for us.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2382 on: October 05, 2022, 09:38:46 AM »
A reporter asked a Ukrainian soldier about the Russian mobilization of 300k troops.  He replied something like "our machine gunners can kill 5 or 50 Russian soldiers, it won't make them tired".

I see a lot of posturing from Russia right now, and not a lot of results.  Moving nukes around... showing videos of new soldiers being trained... claiming regions as their own.  All distractions from losing ground.

Is there a website tracking square kilometers occupied by Russians (in Ukraine / Crimea)?  It would make an interesting countdown timer.
I think the posturing is to keep the support of their own population, it's not for us.
It's a bit of both.  Moving nukes around is an attempt to scare Ukraine's allies, and test their resolve.  I don't think Russians care much about nuclear missles being moved around.

Putin got what he wanted with those fake annexations - breaking news on every TV station.  He succeeded in spreading doubt, catching the imagination of Elon Musk.  Mr Musk thinks regions of Ukraine should vote on joining Russia, but this time with international observers.  Hey, maybe we should do the same for nationalizing Tesla's factories?  After all, who cares about the rule of law compared to the results of a poll?

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2383 on: October 05, 2022, 04:16:33 PM »
There are rumors that RU is trying hard to evacuate their wounded and that at least one school has been appropriated to shelter 200+ patients because existing facilities are overwhelmed.
I can see a problem here. I really can´t think of anything worse for morale than to be surrounded by the injured and dying and their desperation and with no one to get them out of sight (I know it sounds callous, but when it comes to morale, they need to at least get them out of sight and give the appearance that they are taken care of.).
In any case, there are rumors and some visual evidence for a mass casualty event affecting RU forces in Ukraine.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2384 on: October 05, 2022, 06:23:59 PM »
When I was a kid I remember reading how the Nazis pulled gold from the teeth of those in the concentration camps.  They also used human skin to make lamp shades and stuff.  It looks like the "Z" Nazis are following in their footsteps. 

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/gold-teeth-pulled-ukraine-russia-war


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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2385 on: October 06, 2022, 04:44:04 AM »
Good read:


How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?
Sometimes you change the subject, and sometimes the subject changes you

The earth has moved under Putin's feet.  His political career has been based on using controlled media to transform foreign policy into soothing spectacle.  In other words: regime survival has depended upon two premises: what happens on television is more important than what happens in reality; and what happens abroad is more important than what happens at home.  It seems to me that these premises no longer hold.  With mobilization, the distinction between at home and abroad has been broken; with lost battles, the distinction between television and reality has been weakened.  Reality is starting to matter more than television, and Russia will start to matter more than Ukraine.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war?utm_campaign=auto_share
« Last Edit: October 06, 2022, 05:09:41 AM by PeteD01 »

former player

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2386 on: October 06, 2022, 07:44:26 AM »
When I was a kid I remember reading how the Nazis pulled gold from the teeth of those in the concentration camps.  They also used human skin to make lamp shades and stuff.  It looks like the "Z" Nazis are following in their footsteps. 

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/gold-teeth-pulled-ukraine-russia-war
Fortunatelly not quite as bad as that.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1577937869691387904/photo/2

Lots of war crimes by the Russians are well evidenced, just not the teeth part of this one.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2387 on: October 06, 2022, 08:56:00 AM »
When I was a kid I remember reading how the Nazis pulled gold from the teeth of those in the concentration camps.  They also used human skin to make lamp shades and stuff.  It looks like the "Z" Nazis are following in their footsteps. 

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/gold-teeth-pulled-ukraine-russia-war
Fortunatelly not quite as bad as that.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1577937869691387904/photo/2

Lots of war crimes by the Russians are well evidenced, just not the teeth part of this one.
First, never trust BILD.

Second: How do they know it's a real dentist and that he really "collected" hundreds of gold teeth (why did the owners not take them? They are worth an Ukrainian's week of earning!)?

Third: The tweet actually does not state that those are the dentist's teeth. They only look alike. The BILD tweet could be totally bullshit or totally right and the teeth could still be left from Russians taking them out of tortured Ukranians.

(Just saying that as a media exercise, I don't state any thruth here.)

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2388 on: October 06, 2022, 10:04:30 AM »
When I was a kid I remember reading how the Nazis pulled gold from the teeth of those in the concentration camps.  They also used human skin to make lamp shades and stuff.  It looks like the "Z" Nazis are following in their footsteps. 

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/gold-teeth-pulled-ukraine-russia-war
Fortunatelly not quite as bad as that.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1577937869691387904/photo/2

Lots of war crimes by the Russians are well evidenced, just not the teeth part of this one.
First, never trust BILD.

Second: How do they know it's a real dentist and that he really "collected" hundreds of gold teeth (why did the owners not take them? They are worth an Ukrainian's week of earning!)?

Third: The tweet actually does not state that those are the dentist's teeth. They only look alike. The BILD tweet could be totally bullshit or totally right and the teeth could still be left from Russians taking them out of tortured Ukranians.

(Just saying that as a media exercise, I don't state any thruth here.)

I'm not convinced it was fake.  I had gold removed from my teeth and the dentist gave it to me as there was some worth.  This story seems to match the circumstantial evidence of matching other actions by Russians such as the mass graves, torture and bombing hospitals.

ministashy

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2389 on: October 06, 2022, 10:09:32 AM »
When I was a kid I remember reading how the Nazis pulled gold from the teeth of those in the concentration camps.  They also used human skin to make lamp shades and stuff.  It looks like the "Z" Nazis are following in their footsteps. 

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/gold-teeth-pulled-ukraine-russia-war
Fortunatelly not quite as bad as that.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1577937869691387904/photo/2

Lots of war crimes by the Russians are well evidenced, just not the teeth part of this one.

I agree with LennStar, something doesn't smell right on both sides of the reporting here.  First, how many people had gold teeth?  Nazis murdered millions to get their dental gold - but the Russians managed to get a entire boxful in a few months of occupation of an area where most of the civilians had already fled?  Where did they find that many people with that many gold teeth/dentures?  And then the dentist claim - what dentist just has a pile of gold teeth/dentures sitting in their office, ready to be stolen?  I don't know if that stuff is typically given back to the owner or just the value of the gold deducted from the cost of the tooth extraction, but leaving it around (instead of melting it down so it can be reused) seems very bizarre.  It's not like you can plug a used gold tooth into someone else's mouth, afaik. 

I totally believe Ukraine when they say Russians are committing war crimes and torturing people - there's too much evidence not to believe them.  But this story is strange and hard to believe.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2390 on: October 06, 2022, 11:26:59 AM »
Did the Russians torture tens or hundreds of people and extract hundreds of gold crowns (those didn't all come out of just a handful of people) or did they loot a dentist's office (or multiple ones) where a dentist had kept old crowns because they contained valuable gold?

In the case of the former there are either mass graves somewhere with a bunch of bodies missing teeth or local residents who could come forward and show where their gold crowns were torn out.

There doesn't appear to be broken pieces of tooth on any of those crowns/fillings which would probably occur if they were using pliers to just rip them out of people's mouths. So, it's probably the latter and this was some dentist's retirement savings that was stolen. That doesn't mean the Russians weren't torturing people; but they probably weren't going straight Nazi and ripping gold teeth out of people's mouths.



I'm reminded of a story my former co-worker told me. His grandfather used to have a jewelry business and they would save and collect the small scraps of gold and silver they generated to eventually sell. Turns out grandpa had just kept them in 5-gallon buckets in his shed when the business closed down instead of selling them to some refiner. Maybe he considered them an investment, maybe he forgot about them, who knows. So, there was literally tens of thousands of dollars of gold sitting in a bucket for years out in a shed that wasn't discovered until after he died, and his grandson was going through the shed.

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2391 on: October 06, 2022, 01:17:46 PM »
We're all talking like the Nazis were the only ones doing this in WWII.  It was common practice among allied soldiers . . . and was caught on camera.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/03/humanities.highereducation
https://knowledgenuts.com/2014/05/04/the-horrific-american-war-crimes-against-wwii-japan/

War crimes are only for losers of battles.


I wouldn't be surprised at all if Russians are taking teeth.  I would also be equally unsurprised if Ukrainian forces are doing the same to Russians.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2392 on: October 07, 2022, 12:29:55 AM »
We're all talking like the Nazis were the only ones doing this in WWII.  It was common practice among allied soldiers . . . and was caught on camera.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/03/humanities.highereducation
https://knowledgenuts.com/2014/05/04/the-horrific-american-war-crimes-against-wwii-japan/

War crimes are only for losers of battles.
Japanese soldiers were no saints in WWII, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in just China's capital, let alone various neighboring countries.  Nazis kept 19 of 20 POWs alive... Japanese soldiers, only 4 of 5.  But oh man do they love to play the victim card for a war they started!

Which brings me to nuclear weapons that Russia is threatening to use.  I can't predict Putin, as I thought international pressure was good enough to keep him from invaliding in Feb.  But if I had nuclear and chemical weapons, I would get everyone riled up about nuclear weapons... and then use nerve agents instead.  Most media discussions ignore the chemical threat, so it might come as a relief that Russia isn't using nuclear weapons.  I can't predict Putin, but he has set things up for using chemical weapons and getting away with it.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2393 on: October 07, 2022, 01:19:29 AM »
The problem of chemical weapons is that they are hard to handle, especially on a big scale. That's why nobody used it since WWI in any big fight, only here and there as terror, aimed as much (if not more) against civilians than soldiers.

They might have been used when sieging big cities, but on a rolling retreat fight (positivly put) they are less useful than normal bullets/grenades. The last that Putin needs is his fresh conscripts phoning home "We don't even have weapon training, now three died because they don't know how to handle the chemical weapons they gave us!"

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2394 on: October 07, 2022, 07:54:11 AM »
We're all talking like the Nazis were the only ones doing this in WWII.  It was common practice among allied soldiers . . . and was caught on camera.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/03/humanities.highereducation
https://knowledgenuts.com/2014/05/04/the-horrific-american-war-crimes-against-wwii-japan/

War crimes are only for losers of battles.
Japanese soldiers were no saints in WWII, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in just China's capital, let alone various neighboring countries.  Nazis kept 19 of 20 POWs alive... Japanese soldiers, only 4 of 5.  But oh man do they love to play the victim card for a war they started!

My point wasn't to deify the Japanese or vilify the allies.  Generally, in WWII I think that the allies were on the right side and the Japanese were responsible for some pretty horrific actions through WWII . . . everything from a whole military run rape system of 'comfort women' to vivisection on prisoners and really awful human experimentation.  But during fighting bad stuff happens all the time from all participants in war.  Sometimes we pretend that the bad stuff isn't perpetrated by the 'good' guys.  History doesn't support that rose coloured glasses argument though.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2395 on: October 07, 2022, 09:00:14 AM »
We're all talking like the Nazis were the only ones doing this in WWII.  It was common practice among allied soldiers . . . and was caught on camera.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/03/humanities.highereducation
https://knowledgenuts.com/2014/05/04/the-horrific-american-war-crimes-against-wwii-japan/

War crimes are only for losers of battles.
Japanese soldiers were no saints in WWII, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in just China's capital, let alone various neighboring countries.  Nazis kept 19 of 20 POWs alive... Japanese soldiers, only 4 of 5.  But oh man do they love to play the victim card for a war they started!

My point wasn't to deify the Japanese or vilify the allies.  Generally, in WWII I think that the allies were on the right side and the Japanese were responsible for some pretty horrific actions through WWII . . . everything from a whole military run rape system of 'comfort women' to vivisection on prisoners and really awful human experimentation.  But during fighting bad stuff happens all the time from all participants in war.  Sometimes we pretend that the bad stuff isn't perpetrated by the 'good' guys.  History doesn't support that rose coloured glasses argument though.
Which brings us back to the history of how both the Russians and Germans treated Ukraine in the last century... especially Russia under Lenin and then Stalin. Holy fuck is it systematic and horrifying.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2396 on: October 07, 2022, 09:26:01 AM »
We're all talking like the Nazis were the only ones doing this in WWII.  It was common practice among allied soldiers . . . and was caught on camera.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/03/humanities.highereducation
https://knowledgenuts.com/2014/05/04/the-horrific-american-war-crimes-against-wwii-japan/

War crimes are only for losers of battles.
Japanese soldiers were no saints in WWII, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in just China's capital, let alone various neighboring countries.  Nazis kept 19 of 20 POWs alive... Japanese soldiers, only 4 of 5.  But oh man do they love to play the victim card for a war they started!

My point wasn't to deify the Japanese or vilify the allies.  Generally, in WWII I think that the allies were on the right side and the Japanese were responsible for some pretty horrific actions through WWII . . . everything from a whole military run rape system of 'comfort women' to vivisection on prisoners and really awful human experimentation.  But during fighting bad stuff happens all the time from all participants in war.  Sometimes we pretend that the bad stuff isn't perpetrated by the 'good' guys.  History doesn't support that rose coloured glasses argument though.

And the only bad thing I've ever heard about Canadians is mistreating natives at boarding schools.  I guess they can us What about isms.

sixwings

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2397 on: October 07, 2022, 11:14:29 AM »
We're all talking like the Nazis were the only ones doing this in WWII.  It was common practice among allied soldiers . . . and was caught on camera.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/03/humanities.highereducation
https://knowledgenuts.com/2014/05/04/the-horrific-american-war-crimes-against-wwii-japan/

War crimes are only for losers of battles.
Japanese soldiers were no saints in WWII, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in just China's capital, let alone various neighboring countries.  Nazis kept 19 of 20 POWs alive... Japanese soldiers, only 4 of 5.  But oh man do they love to play the victim card for a war they started!

My point wasn't to deify the Japanese or vilify the allies.  Generally, in WWII I think that the allies were on the right side and the Japanese were responsible for some pretty horrific actions through WWII . . . everything from a whole military run rape system of 'comfort women' to vivisection on prisoners and really awful human experimentation.  But during fighting bad stuff happens all the time from all participants in war.  Sometimes we pretend that the bad stuff isn't perpetrated by the 'good' guys.  History doesn't support that rose coloured glasses argument though.

And the only bad thing I've ever heard about Canadians is mistreating natives at boarding schools.  I guess they can us What about isms.

It wasn't just mistreating, that's a pretty big understatement for the horrors of the 60s scoop and residential schools.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixties_Scoop

https://indigenousfoundations.arts.ubc.ca/the_residential_school_system/#:~:text=The%20residential%20school%20system%20officially,to%20speak%20their%20own%20languages.

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2398 on: October 07, 2022, 01:21:19 PM »
We're all talking like the Nazis were the only ones doing this in WWII.  It was common practice among allied soldiers . . . and was caught on camera.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/03/humanities.highereducation
https://knowledgenuts.com/2014/05/04/the-horrific-american-war-crimes-against-wwii-japan/

War crimes are only for losers of battles.
Japanese soldiers were no saints in WWII, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in just China's capital, let alone various neighboring countries.  Nazis kept 19 of 20 POWs alive... Japanese soldiers, only 4 of 5.  But oh man do they love to play the victim card for a war they started!

My point wasn't to deify the Japanese or vilify the allies.  Generally, in WWII I think that the allies were on the right side and the Japanese were responsible for some pretty horrific actions through WWII . . . everything from a whole military run rape system of 'comfort women' to vivisection on prisoners and really awful human experimentation.  But during fighting bad stuff happens all the time from all participants in war.  Sometimes we pretend that the bad stuff isn't perpetrated by the 'good' guys.  History doesn't support that rose coloured glasses argument though.

And the only bad thing I've ever heard about Canadians is mistreating natives at boarding schools.  I guess they can us What about isms.

It wasn't just mistreating, that's a pretty big understatement for the horrors of the 60s scoop and residential schools.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixties_Scoop

https://indigenousfoundations.arts.ubc.ca/the_residential_school_system/#:~:text=The%20residential%20school%20system%20officially,to%20speak%20their%20own%20languages.

Yep.  Not minimal at all.  We sent police to native people's doors to take away their children, then horribly abused the kids (killing quite a few of them in the process).  The residential school system was a concerted attempt at eradicating native culture.  It has caused generational problems with drug/alcohol abuse, completely broke the traditional native family structure, and has more or less fucked things up for a whole generation of people in Canada.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2399 on: October 07, 2022, 10:21:00 PM »
« Last Edit: October 07, 2022, 10:56:40 PM by lost_in_the_endless_aisle »