Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 575226 times)

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2000 on: August 09, 2022, 02:24:34 PM »
There's all sorts of speculation about what caused the big badaboom.  The airbase is outside the range of HIMARS, and the strike too precise to be a Ukrainian weapon.  The immediate guesses were ATACMS, which the US hasn't said it has supplied yet, or sabotage/guerillas.  Russian incompetence isn't seriously being discussed, since it's two ammo warehouses blowing up nearly simultaneously.

A couple days ago, the Russians posted a photo of debris from an American HARM (anti-radar missile), which came as a surprise, and the US confirmed the transfer of HARMs yesterday. So it's very possible that there are other undisclosed weapons systems deployed.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1557025471178702849

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1557084257981550596

The damage could be catastrophic. Those explosions were 1) massive 2) spread out and 3) on an airfield with dozens of vulnerable aircraft. If you saw the damage done to the Kherson airport early in the war when it was a Russian helicopter base you know how easy it is to ruin aircraft.

Why this happened will be interesting to learn. Russia claims a workplace accident (and Ukrainian MoD is trolling them hard for the claim). It's too far away for GMLRS, but within range of ATACMS and Ukrainian fixed-wing aircraft and long-range drones if somehow the entire Russian air defense network in that area just stopped working*.

*US-made anti-radar missiles confirmed to be in use in theater.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2001 on: August 09, 2022, 03:00:06 PM »
And not to forget, Russian vacationers are fleeing Crimea,
and they are bringing the news home.


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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2002 on: August 09, 2022, 03:02:22 PM »
I wonder if there will be open source sat imagery tomorrow?

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2003 on: August 09, 2022, 03:35:44 PM »
There's all sorts of speculation about what caused the big badaboom.  The airbase is outside the range of HIMARS, and the strike too precise to be a Ukrainian weapon.  The immediate guesses were ATACMS, which the US hasn't said it has supplied yet, or sabotage/guerillas.  Russian incompetence isn't seriously being discussed, since it's two ammo warehouses blowing up nearly simultaneously.

A couple days ago, the Russians posted a photo of debris from an American HARM (anti-radar missile), which came as a surprise, and the US confirmed the transfer of HARMs yesterday. So it's very possible that there are other undisclosed weapons systems deployed.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1557025471178702849

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1557084257981550596

The damage could be catastrophic. Those explosions were 1) massive 2) spread out and 3) on an airfield with dozens of vulnerable aircraft. If you saw the damage done to the Kherson airport early in the war when it was a Russian helicopter base you know how easy it is to ruin aircraft.

Why this happened will be interesting to learn. Russia claims a workplace accident (and Ukrainian MoD is trolling them hard for the claim). It's too far away for GMLRS, but within range of ATACMS and Ukrainian fixed-wing aircraft and long-range drones if somehow the entire Russian air defense network in that area just stopped working*.

*US-made anti-radar missiles confirmed to be in use in theater.

Obviously, there was a storm and that's why the airbase blew up.




Just ignore the clear blue skies in the videos of the explosions.

TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2004 on: August 09, 2022, 05:03:48 PM »
There's all sorts of speculation about what caused the big badaboom.  The airbase is outside the range of HIMARS, and the strike too precise to be a Ukrainian weapon. 

Perhaps they have gotten the Hrim-2 into production: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2005 on: August 09, 2022, 06:49:12 PM »
I'm also seeing speculation that the Russian naval base at Sevastopol could be in range of an ATACM, which would impact the balance of power in the Black Sea.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2006 on: August 09, 2022, 07:41:49 PM »
I'm also seeing speculation that the Russian naval base at Sevastopol could be in range of an ATACM, which would impact the balance of power in the Black Sea.
I believe that Russia has already pulled all of their naval vessels out of Sevatopol, to Novorossiysk and locations on the Azov Sea, specifically because of the increasing threat from long-range precision munitions

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2007 on: August 10, 2022, 04:04:11 AM »
I've also seen speculation that the Neptune cruise missile used to sink the Moskva could have the range (200km+) and also has a land attack mode.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune


If the target was the two munitions storage areas that's a pretty easy target to distinguish as they're very distinctive.

It's amazing to see how close houses are built to those storage igloos (AKA bunkers). I guess Russia and Ukraine have never heard of explosive clear zones (or don't care). The US military is very careful when siting munition storage areas to ensure that one blowing up won't set off an adjacent one, and that all of them are far away from anything else. Especially for an air base where the munitions can contain hundreds of pounds or more of high explosives. An igloo full of small arms ammunition is relatively little explosives compared to an igloo full of 500 kg bombs.

Go look at an US Base and there is a probably a road called Ammo Rd that leads to a munitions storage area well away from the flightline and any other buildings. I just looked at a random base (Dyess AFB in Texas) and the MSA is at least 800 meters from the nearest building as opposed to Novofedorivka where there are houses within 50-100 meters.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2008 on: August 10, 2022, 06:16:17 AM »
Yeah, an accident at 2 high security places at the same time. lol

Personally I would have thought some partisan managed to sneak in there with a mortar on a boat or whatever, but Russia saying it was an accident sounds more like they don't want to admit their air defence didn't work, so I would bet on missile attack.

-----

btw. I read Russia is putting anti-radar stuff on the big bridge to prevent another missile attack there.
Anyone knows what would happen if you throw that or alu foil from the supermarket on a radar dish - would it spark and start to burn or is the radar too weak for that?


zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2009 on: August 10, 2022, 10:09:22 AM »
The big explosions happened during the day.  Something was on fire before the big explosions.  And the two big explosions happened within a fraction of a second of each other.  They're also really big explosions.

This makes me hypothesize a couple of scenarios:
1) special forces infiltrated (I'd guess via sea, as the air base is quite close to the water), planted timed explosives on some large munitions, planes, fuel tanks, etc, and exfiltrated before the fun began.
2) some previously-unknown-in-theater long-range, high-powered, precision missiles were able to impact in a coordinated way (but that doesn't explain the earlier fires)
3) maybe Ukraine capitalized on Russian complacency (or the Russians turning off their radar--see below) and launched a couple of HARMs from the Black Sea?

Some things I think we can rule out:
1) Ukrainian air force planes dropping bombs or firing rockets - nobody seems to have noticed any aircraft flying around
2) Special forces firing RPGs, anti-tank weapons, mortars, etc.  Not enough boom IMO to start something like that, and they'd have to be physically present when the booms start.
3) JDAMs or missiles fired by NATO.  So far, NATO has been very careful about what aid they give.

Some other speculation I've seen:
--The recent destruction of air defenses by HARMs has caused the Russians to turn off their radars, and Ukraine capitalized on that.
--Ukraine had a long-range missile program in concert with Israel several years ago that was not renewed, due to high cost, but some missiles remain.

btw. I read Russia is putting anti-radar stuff on the big bridge to prevent another missile attack there.
Anyone knows what would happen if you throw that or alu foil from the supermarket on a radar dish - would it spark and start to burn or is the radar too weak for that?
So, the funny thing is that Russia has been putting radar reflectors near the bridge in Kherson, but the HIMARS rockets that have been hitting it are GPS-guided, not radar-guided.  I don't know if the Russians are doing the same for the Kerch Strait bridge.


Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2010 on: August 10, 2022, 10:56:26 AM »
Doesn't even have to be the Ukrainian military. People loyal to Ukraine who happen to be there could decide that they're going to take action. Partisan activity is happening, there's been a few reports that I've seen (Russian puppet mayor was sent back to Russia critically ill, possibly died, etc). Of course the Ukrainian people are fighting. Heck, you could have someone who has access to the base contact the Ukrainian military and ask for instructions.

Edit:
the NYT is reporting that Ukraine says it was a combo of special ops and partisans. Grain of salt of course for propaganda, but seems reasonable.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2022, 11:47:58 AM by Sibley »

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2011 on: August 10, 2022, 12:32:37 PM »
The inofficial evacuation of Crimea is still ongoing:


"24 hours later, still traffic jam to leave Crimea"

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1557397898173812737

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2012 on: August 10, 2022, 02:01:06 PM »
Well, the first satellite photos of the aftermath are in, and boy, it doesn't look good for Russia: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897?s=20&t=FoLNPmdnp5sSZn5wku-r6A (Apparently, the tweet was removed)
« Last Edit: August 11, 2022, 10:02:22 AM by zolotiyeruki »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2013 on: August 10, 2022, 06:24:33 PM »
The inofficial evacuation of Crimea is still ongoing:


"24 hours later, still traffic jam to leave Crimea"

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1557397898173812737
You see, the mistake there is to have a median on the bridge. When I got stuck crossing the Volga, there was no median, so the eastbound traffic took over all of the westbound lanes except for one, and also the westbound shoulder (the eastbound shoulder was full of Muslims pulled over praying towards Mecca)

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2014 on: August 10, 2022, 06:35:54 PM »
Well, the first satellite photos of the aftermath are in, and boy, it doesn't look good for Russia: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897?s=20&t=FoLNPmdnp5sSZn5wku-r6A

https://twitter.com/wammezz/status/1557489318108733440

Another perspective on the damage. Depending on who you ask, Russia lost 10-20 aircraft in this and an unknown number of personnel. If the plane wasn't completely destroyed, it likely sustained enough heat and shrapnel damage to render it unfit to fly.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2015 on: August 10, 2022, 07:42:04 PM »
Well, the first satellite photos of the aftermath are in, and boy, it doesn't look good for Russia: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897?s=20&t=FoLNPmdnp5sSZn5wku-r6A

https://twitter.com/wammezz/status/1557489318108733440

Another perspective on the damage. Depending on who you ask, Russia lost 10-20 aircraft in this and an unknown number of personnel. If the plane wasn't completely destroyed, it likely sustained enough heat and shrapnel damage to render it unfit to fly.

There's a gif of the before and after, and wow. The difference. I could see there being quite a few casualties.

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2016 on: August 11, 2022, 09:05:27 AM »
Well, the first satellite photos of the aftermath are in, and boy, it doesn't look good for Russia: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897?s=20&t=FoLNPmdnp5sSZn5wku-r6A

Twitter deleted that post.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2017 on: August 11, 2022, 09:52:38 AM »
Well, the first satellite photos of the aftermath are in, and boy, it doesn't look good for Russia: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897?s=20&t=FoLNPmdnp5sSZn5wku-r6A

Twitter deleted that post.

Those pics were all over, you can still find them.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2018 on: August 11, 2022, 10:03:01 AM »
Well, the first satellite photos of the aftermath are in, and boy, it doesn't look good for Russia: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897?s=20&t=FoLNPmdnp5sSZn5wku-r6A

Twitter deleted that post.
Thanks for the heads up.  The Guardian has an article with a before/after slider thingamabob that makes it really easy to see the extent of the damage: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/11/russian-warplanes-destroyed-in-crimea-saky-airbase-attack-satellite-images-show

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2019 on: August 11, 2022, 01:57:40 PM »

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2020 on: August 11, 2022, 11:13:25 PM »
https://twitter.com/georgian_legion/status/1557485847754248192?s=20&t=3yppHZH2iP4l6yUjE7H62g

I think that might be fair warning...

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557621932429819907

Part shooting war and part culture war...
Yeah. Putin may have a troll army, but the Ukrainian army is the bigger troll ;)

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2021 on: August 12, 2022, 07:37:07 AM »
Ukraine has had the upper hand in the court of public opinion, and on social media, from the beginning.  I'm glad to see they still have it.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2022 on: August 12, 2022, 09:05:58 AM »
Certainly their trolling has been top notch.  Someone knows their audience well.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2023 on: August 13, 2022, 02:18:49 PM »
So far unconfirmed reports indicate that UAF have severed the fourth and last bridge connecting the right bank of the Dniepr river in southern Ukraine to the RUAF rear; and that the RUAF command in Kherson city has fled to the left bank of the river Dniepr, leaving thousands of Russian soldiers behind who are now facing serious logistics issues.


And on another note:


Silicon Lifeline: Western Electronics at the Heart of Russia's War Machine

James Byrne, Gary Somerville, Joe Byrne, Dr Jack Watling , Nick Reynolds and Jane Baker
8 August 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has not gone to plan. Launched in the expectation of a surgical occupation of Ukrainian cities, it has become a grinding attritional struggle that is rapidly degrading the Russian military. This report, which contains an examination of the components and functioning of 27 of Russia’s most modern military systems – including cruise missiles, communications systems and electronic warfare complexes – concludes that the degradation in Russian military capability could be made permanent if appropriate policies are implemented.


https://static.rusi.org/RUSI-Silicon-Lifeline-final-updated-web_0.pdf

LaineyAZ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2024 on: August 13, 2022, 08:24:23 PM »
Does anyone have an opinion on whether the Russians will actually damage the nuclear power plant to the point of it's becoming another Chernobyl? 

I don't know the details but those headlines are worrisome.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2025 on: August 13, 2022, 09:09:07 PM »
Does anyone have an opinion on whether the Russians will actually damage the nuclear power plant to the point of it's becoming another Chernobyl? 

I don't know the details but those headlines are worrisome.

Considering that they had people digging around Chernobyl, I think it's entirely possible that regardless of their intentions Russia could seriously screw up the plant. Out of sheer ignorance or arrogance.

Imma

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2026 on: August 14, 2022, 02:35:21 AM »
Does anyone have an opinion on whether the Russians will actually damage the nuclear power plant to the point of it's becoming another Chernobyl? 

I don't know the details but those headlines are worrisome.

Considering that they had people digging around Chernobyl, I think it's entirely possible that regardless of their intentions Russia could seriously screw up the plant. Out of sheer ignorance or arrogance.

I would think ignorance is more likely than arrogance at this point. It's not just Europe at risk, depending on the wind it could also have major consequences for Russia.

I've been told by someone who fled Russia 20 years ago that he didn't find out about Chernobyl until he moved to Europe. It's apparantly completely censored from the history books. I would think most soldiers or low-level leadership have absolutely no idea how dangerous nuclear power plants can be. I've read reports about how some Russian soldiers were completely surprised to experience radition sickness after walking around in the Chernobyl area.

Obviously Putin remembers Chernobyl, and so do the old generals he surrounds himself with, but I suppose it's not easy to get the information to the troops in the area in a way that doesn't undermine you and while trying to make sure that information doesn't become publicly known. Obviously the easiest way would just be to order all troops away from the Zaporizja plant area, but it's in a very strategic location so that would be risky from their perspective too.

former player

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2027 on: August 14, 2022, 02:51:02 AM »
Does anyone have an opinion on whether the Russians will actually damage the nuclear power plant to the point of it's becoming another Chernobyl? 

I don't know the details but those headlines are worrisome.
I know of two families who have stayed in Ukraine so far but are now hoping to leave because of what the Russians are doing, and may do, at Zaporizhzhi nuclear plant and the potential effects on their children's health.  So Ukrainians who have so far stayed and dealt with the effects of the war are taking the possibility for nuclear disaster very seriously indeed.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2028 on: August 14, 2022, 06:13:49 AM »
Just from the looks of the buildings, the reactors look rather robust.  However, does anyone know if the spent fuel pools are like American plants?  The spent fuel sits in a pool under 40 ft of very clear water.  The spent fuel is very "hot" in a radiologic sense.  It emits a nice blue glow that can be seen in the water.  The spent fuel does not receive the concrete barrier that the reactor has.  An explosion could create a "dirty" bomb and spread contamination.

Given how the Russians act around these nuke plants, maybe it was smoking that knocked out their Crimea base.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2029 on: August 14, 2022, 09:48:10 AM »
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-88-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Update 88 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine  August 6, 2022
125/2022  -- document number.
Vienna, Austria

Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi today issued a statement expressing his grave concern about Friday’s shelling at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and again stressing the crucial importance of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) being able to send a mission of nuclear safety, security and safeguards experts to the site as soon as possible.

Ukraine informed the IAEA that the shelling had damaged the plant’s external power supply system but that two power lines remained operational, the Director General said. It had also triggered the emergency protection system of one of the plant’s three operating reactors. This unit was disconnected from the grid as a result of Friday’s events, Ukraine said.

Ukraine also informed the IAEA that there had been no damage to the reactors themselves, no radiological release and no reports of injuries. However, it said a nitrogen-oxygen station, which supports plant operations, and an auxiliary building were damaged. Firefighters had quickly extinguished a fire at the nitrogen-oxygen station, but it still needs to be repaired, Ukraine said. The IAEA has also received information about shelling near the spent fuel storage facility.

On Saturday morning, two of the ZNPP’s six units were operating and the radiation situation was normal, Ukraine told the IAEA.

Based on the limited information available, Director General Grossi said IAEA experts had made a preliminary assessment that the current nuclear safety and security situation at the ZNPP seemed stable, with no immediate threat to nuclear safety.

The IAEA will continue to closely monitor the evolution of the situation, the progress of repairs and any nuclear safety implications at the site, he said. 

The Director General said Friday’s events had breached several of the seven indispensable nuclear safety and security pillars that he outlined at the beginning of the conflict, in particular:

    Pillar 1 (Physical integrity): Any military activity – such as shelling – within, or in the vicinity of, a nuclear facility has the potential to cause an Unacceptable Radiological Consequence.
    Pillar 2 (All safety and security systems and equipment must be functional at all times): As a result of the shelling, emergency protection was activated at one of the  units, diesel generators were set in operation, and the nitrogen-oxygen station and an auxiliary building were damaged.
    Pillar 3 (Operating Staff): This recent activity further increases the stress of the operational team.
    Pillar 4 (Power supply): This has been compromised as a result of damage to the external power supply system.
    Pillar 6 (Radiation monitoring and Emergency Preparedness and Response arrangements): In the current status of the site, this recent shelling further jeopardizes the already compromised EPR arrangements and capabilities to respond. However, the radiation monitoring system is still operational.

In his statement, Director General Grossi said any military action jeopardizing the safety of the ZNPP – Europe’s largest such plant – was completely unacceptable and must be avoided.

The IAEA has not been able to visit the Russian-occupied facility in Ukraine's south since before the conflict began more than five months ago.

Director General Grossi said he would continue his efforts to send an IAEA mission to the site, stressing that this would help to stabilise the nuclear safety and security situation there.

In relation to safeguards, the IAEA is continuing to receive remote safeguards data from the four operational NPPs, but it is still experiencing a partial loss of safeguards data transfer from the Chornobyl NPP, the Director General said.

Ukraine also informed the IAEA today that ten of the country’s 15 nuclear energy reactors are currently connected to the grid, including two at the ZNPP, three at the Rivne NPP, three at the South Ukraine NPP, and two at the Khmelnytskyy NPP.


-----------------------------end official statement ------
markbike528CBX  says:

The fact that 2 plants are operating is surprising  to me.   But it also indicates that safety systems are still powered, unlike at Fukushima, where all the backup-safety diesel generators of reactors 1,2,3 and 4 were taken out by the tsunami.   

To answer pecunia's question on concrete thickness, in VVER's on one side the Spent Fuel Pool is protected by the reactor, on other side by meters of concrete, both of the fuel pool structure and other reactor hall areas.   
https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/28/030/28030674.pdf   -- I would note that this analysis includes "hot" ie very fresh Fuel Assemblies.   
The fuel in Zaporizha's fuel pool is likely to be no newer than Februrary 24th, so 6 months.   It makes a big difference in heat and radiation when the fuel has time to cool off.   

As long as you can keep water (of any quality) in the fuel pool, then no releases are likely.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2030 on: August 17, 2022, 07:02:36 PM »
Saw this article about partisans in Ukraine. Very interesting, there were pretty serious preparations prior to the war.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/17/world/europe/ukraine-partisans-insurgency-russia.html

ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine — They sneak down darkened alleys to set explosives. They identify Russian targets for Ukrainian artillery and long-range rockets provided by the United States. They blow up rail lines and assassinate officials they consider collaborators with the Russians.

Slipping back and forth across the front lines, the guerrilla fighters are known in Ukraine as partisans, and in recent weeks they have taken an ever more prominent role in the war, rattling Russian forces by helping deliver humiliating blows in occupied areas they thought were safe.

Increasingly, Ukraine is taking the fight against Russian forces into Russian-controlled areas, whether with elite military units, like the one credited on Tuesday with a huge explosion at a Russian ammunition depot in the occupied Crimean Peninsula, or an underground network of the guerrillas.

Last week, Ukrainian officials said, the partisans had a hand in a successful strike on a Russian air base, also in Crimea, which Moscow annexed eight years ago. It destroyed eight fighter jets.

“The goal is to show the occupiers that they are not at home, that they should not settle in, that they should not sleep comfortably,” said one guerrilla fighter, who spoke on condition that, for security reasons, he only be identified by his code name, Svarog, after a pagan Slavic god of fire.

In recent days the Ukrainian military made Svarog and several other of the operatives available for interviews in person or online, hoping to highlight the partisans’ widening threat to Russian forces and signal to Western donors that Ukraine is successfully rallying local resources in the war, now nearly six months old. A senior Ukrainian military official familiar with the program also described the workings of the resistance.

Their accounts of attacks could not be verified completely but aligned with reports in the Ukrainian media and with descriptions from Ukrainians who had recently fled Russian-occupied areas.

Svarog and I met over lemonade and cheese pastries at a Georgian restaurant in Zaporizhzhia, a city under Ukrainian control about 65 miles north of the occupied town of Melitopol.

He spoke with intimate knowledge of partisan activities, providing a rare glimpse into one of the most hidden aspects of the war.

The Ukrainian military began training partisans in the months before the invasion, as Russia massed troops near the borders. The effort has paid off in recent weeks as Ukrainian forces are pressing a counteroffensive in the south, although Russian forces, with far greater advantages in heavy weapons, still surround Ukraine from the east and north.

Ukrainian officials warned on Tuesday of the threat of a potential Russian attack from Belarus, noting a buildup of missile systems there, and said Russian forces were expending tens of thousands of rounds a day as they shelled hundreds of defensive positions in eastern and southern Ukraine.

With little movement of the front lines, insurgent activity is now intensifying, as the fighters strike stealthily in environs they know intimately, using car bombs, booby traps and targeted killings with pistols — and then blending into the local population.

Before the war, Svarog occasionally joined weekend training with Right Sector and National Corps, a branch of the Azov movement, both of which are aligned with paramilitary units in Ukraine. They were just two of dozens of organizations running military training for civilians throughout Ukraine during the eight-year war with Russian-backed separatists.

Svarog said he was among the trainees in these public programs. Behind the scenes, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces were forming a more structured, and secret, program that included instruction on sabotage, explosives and stashing weapon caches in anticipation of Russia’s attack.

After the invasion, Svarog said, he was directed to a storage shed outside Melitopol, where he found slabs of high explosives, detonators, Kalashnikov rifles, a grenade launcher and two pistols equipped with silencers.

Melitopol, the southern Ukrainian town where Svarog operates, has since emerged as a center of the resistance. He recounted the careful casing of targets, followed by attacks.

By Saturday, partisans had struck with explosives seven days in a row, according to the town’s exiled mayor, Ivan Fedorov, who boasted of the achievement to Ukrainian media as part of the more public embrace of partisan operations by officials.

The attacks have been going on for several months. This spring, Svarog said, he and several members of the cell in Melitopol sneaked through the town at night to booby-trap a car in the parking lot of a Russian-controlled police station.

Carrying wire cutters, tape and fishing line, the fighters moved through courtyards and back alleys to avoid Russian checkpoints.

They first cut an electrical wire, blacking out a streetlight, then dashed quickly into the darkness where they planted a bomb, wrapped in tape with the sticky side facing outward, into a wheel well. The fishing line was taped both to the inside of the wheel and to a detonator, rigging the bomb to explode when the wheel turned.

“Anybody who would drive that car would be a traitor,” Svarog said. “Nobody there is keeping public order.” The bomb killed one police officer and wounded another.

In a strike last week, he said, his cell booby-trapped the car of Oleg Shostak, a Ukrainian who had joined the Russian political party United Russia in Melitopol. The insurgents targeted him because they suspected him of tailoring propaganda to appeal to local residents.

Svarog, who said he did not take part in this particular mission, said his team placed a bomb under the driver’s seat, rigged to explode when the engine started.

Mr. Shostak was wounded in the explosion but survived, said Mr. Fedorov, the exiled mayor. The attack was separately reported by Ukrainian authorities and described by displaced people leaving Melitopol through a checkpoint to Ukrainian territory on Sunday.

Whether targeted people survive or die in the attacks, partisans say, is less important than the signal sent with each strike: You are never safe.

Under a Ukrainian law passed by Parliament last year, the military’s Special Operations Forces are authorized to train, arm and pay secret combatants fighting on Ukrainian territory in time of war. In the law, they are called “community volunteers.”

The partisans say they are civilians and the legal basis for their activity is therefore regulated under the Ukrainian law, not the laws of war that prohibit, for example, a soldier from targeting a civilian official.

But under international law civilians become combatants when they start taking part in hostilities. The partisans work for the government, even the military, and whether the murky area they inhabit does in fact fall under international law — and whether their activities violate those rules — is a matter for debate.

Not all their activities are violent. Separately, two partisans operating in occupied southeastern Ukraine  described a branch of the underground called Yellow Ribbon, which posts leaflets and spray paints graffiti.

The bases on Ukrainian territory where operatives are trained are moved constantly to avoid discovery, according to a senior Ukrainian military official. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military information.

Each operative has a different a role to play, the official said: scouting a target, gathering intelligence on a target’s movements, and carrying out an attack. Individual cells are kept separate and do not know one another, lest a detained partisan reveal identities under interrogation.

Two entities within the military are responsible for overseeing operations behind enemy lines, the official said: the military intelligence service, known as HUR, and Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces. An interagency task force oversees operations of both the intelligence agency and Special Operations Forces branches of the underground, what is known as the Resistance Movement, or Rukh Oporu in Ukrainian.

The official described a poisoning in the Zaporizhzhia region that killed around 15 Russian soldiers and the sabotage of a grain elevator, in the Kherson region, that prevented Russian forces from stealing 60,000 tons of grain. Neither operation could be independently verified.

Partisans were also behind an explosion on Saturday that disabled a railroad bridge connecting Melitopol to Crimea, halting the supply of military equipment coming into the Zaporizhzhia region.

The partisans are searching for those they consider traitors, too.

The Ukrainian underground in occupied territory considers police officers, municipal and regional government employees and teachers who agree to work under the Russian educational curriculum as collaborators, according to Svarog and another partisan using the nickname Viking. They said they did not see doctors, firefighters and employees of utility companies as traitors.

Teachers are a focus now, with schools scheduled to open in September.

“The Russians want to teach by their program, not the truth,” Viking said. “A child is vulnerable to propaganda and if raised in this program, will become an idiot like the Russians,” he said. “A teacher who agrees to teach by the Russian program is a collaborator.”

Partisans will not attack teachers, he said, but have sought to humiliate them through leaflets they often post on utility poles with dark warnings for collaborators, as part of their psychological operations.

One went up recently, he said, with the names and photographs of principals planning to open schools in September.

It said: “For collaborating with the Russians, there will be payback.”

Abe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2031 on: August 17, 2022, 07:43:13 PM »
Hopefully the conventional war will push back Russians before the guerillas get out of hand.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2032 on: August 18, 2022, 12:24:09 PM »
According to friends more knowledgeable than me, Russia is rumored to prepare a false flag attach on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, perhaps already tomorrow.  One of the strong indications are postings by the Russian embassy in Stockholm on twitter.  See attached screenshot. 

Similar posts are posted on other Russian embassy accounts as well.




gooki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2033 on: August 18, 2022, 03:13:49 PM »
Big day for the defenders in Ukraine.

• Explosions at munitions depot, Timonovo, Belgorod, Russia
• Fire/explosions at Stary Oskol Airfield, Belgorod, Russia
• Explosions in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson, Ukraine
• Explosions/UAV shot down near Belbek airport, Crimea, Ukraine
• Air defence activity near Kerch strait, Crimea, Ukraine

Just one of these hits would be a significant milestone for the Ukraine armed Forces.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2022, 03:16:16 PM by gooki »

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2034 on: August 18, 2022, 03:58:26 PM »
Someone over at The War Zone posted satellite photos of the ammo dump at Belgorod before the strike.  It is (or was) HUGE.  I'm looking forward to seeing before-and-after photos.

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2035 on: August 18, 2022, 06:21:23 PM »
I don't understand why Russia's high tech air force is so impotent during this invasion.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2036 on: August 18, 2022, 07:40:26 PM »
I don't understand why Russia's high tech air force is so impotent during this invasion.

Ukraine has robust anti-aircraft systems that can target aircraft at higher elevations and the US and others have provided MANPADs (Man Portable Air Defense) such as Stinger missiles which work at lower elevations.

Ukraine doesn't have stealth aircraft, so they are just as vulnerable to a modern surface to air missiles (SAM) as any other aircraft.

This is why the Russians have resorted to launching unguided rockets from attack helicopters on ballistic arcs instead of using them as designed in a direct fire attack mode from relatively close range. It lets them stay miles away from Ukrainians with MANPADs.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2037 on: August 18, 2022, 07:56:18 PM »
I don't understand why Russia's high tech air force is so impotent during this invasion.

The had an opportunity to crush most of Ukraine's air force and air defenses in the first couple days. For reasons we can only guess they made a token effort. Once Ukraine got some breathing room and replacement equipment (and Russia retreating in the north) they were able to establish a capable air defense network that covered most of the front line, and increasingly able to defend their cities from cruise missiles. Most of Ukraine's strategic and tactical air defense equipment is Russian in origin. It's about to augmented by NATO-compatible missile systems.

The VKS* (Russian air force) does not have the training or equipment to take modern enemy air defenses head-on. Up until a month ago neither did Ukraine. Both air forces settled for a stalemate where planes from both sides wouldn't venture very far past the front line, and then only flying at low level to do rocket attacks.  Higher-altitude bombing has been out of the question. Between the GMLRS and anti-radar missiles that Ukraine has been employing, it appears that the air defenses in the south are being dismantled piece by piece.

Russia still possesses a lot of air defense equipment (hundreds of strategic and mobile launchers); however, we're seeing Ukraine gradually push their aircraft deeper over the lines and in greater numbers. We're also going to see them firing more NATO weaponry from their aircraft at some point.

Also, it's not really that high-tech of an air force. It's better than most and is the 4th largest in the world (after the US Air Force, US Navy, and US Army), but it has relied on a handful of modern aircraft and a very small bench of qualified pilots to do the lion's share of the work. Both of which have sustained serious losses over the past six months.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2038 on: August 18, 2022, 08:51:05 PM »
The Ukrainians have made good use of the drones even composing a tune for the Bayraktar.  Putin got off his keester a few weeks ago and paid his Iranian friends a visit.  He is supposed to be getting a lot of drones from iran.  I've seen nothing from anyone anticipating the effects of these drones and further what defenses the Ukrainians will have against them.  Anybody know?

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2039 on: August 19, 2022, 12:16:52 AM »
According to friends more knowledgeable than me, Russia is rumored to prepare a false flag attach on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, perhaps already tomorrow.  One of the strong indications are postings by the Russian embassy in Stockholm on twitter.  See attached screenshot. 

Similar posts are posted on other Russian embassy accounts as well.
Yes, the Russians were saying Ukraine will make a false flag operation or something like that.
Meanwhile on twitter you can see a video allegedly with Russian ammunition inside the power plant (generator hall etc) and Z-Trucks bringing stuff.


Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2040 on: August 20, 2022, 07:49:04 AM »
Looks like Ukraine crashed a UAV onto the roof of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters building in Sevastopol. Minimal damage, but the message was sent.

Even if this was a shoot-down, it made it all the way to its target from Ukrainian territory and landed/crashed/fell right on top of it.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1560883505911005185?t=hKDoMzr3Ll6vkI7s0dvgVg&s=19

jnw

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2041 on: August 21, 2022, 07:51:27 AM »
I knew Dugin was behind this plot to invade Ukraine as I mentioned some months ago in earlier post in this thread.  Smelled of him.. all the "There is no such thing as FACT" philosophy crap.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/daria-dugina-alexander-dugin-russia-world-ukraine-explosiong-death_n_6301f6cfe4b035629bfbbe7c

Steve Bannon, Trump's former advisor, loves Dugin and Julius Evola.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2042 on: August 21, 2022, 02:06:31 PM »
...

Steve Bannon, Trump's former advisor, loves Dugin and Julius Evola.

Aleksandr Gelyevich Dugin, the father of Daria Dugina who was killed in the attack that likely was targeting him, is an important and particularly odious ideologue respected in Christian Nationalist circles, although Dugin does not use the term Christian Nationalism (AFAIK) which seems to be adapted for consumption by US Christians in order to obfuscate the roots of the cult.

From Wikipedia:

According to Marlene Laruelle, Dugin's adherence to the Old Believers allows him to stand between Paganism and Orthodox Christianity without formally adopting either of them. His choice is not paradoxical, since, according to him—in the wake of René Guénon—Russian Orthodoxy and especially the Old Believers have preserved an esoteric and initiatory character which was utterly lost in Western Christianity. As such, the Russian Orthodox tradition may be merged with Neopaganism and may host "Neopaganism's nationalist force, which anchors it in the Russian soil, and separates it from the two other Christian confessions"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin


Daria Dugina also was no slouch in promoting Greater Russian fascism and genocide in Ukraine.
Here is a recent clip from Russian TV:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1561381788211036165
« Last Edit: August 21, 2022, 02:49:15 PM by PeteD01 »

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2043 on: August 21, 2022, 07:32:23 PM »
Sounds like a great karmic justice... Its a shame it didn't get Aleksandr Dugin too.

The murders and misery those two are partly responsible for...

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2044 on: August 22, 2022, 05:43:09 AM »
I don't think it's right to kill noncombatants with car bombs - but I surely will not cry about those two. Somewhen I watched 10 minutes with father and also seen that video before and I was close to vomiting.

That agressiveness alone - how can the Russians watch that without feeling sick? (Well, a lot of Trump rallies are nearly that bad, not to mention past events, so maye I should not point out nationalities)

I find it funny that in that linked video she speaks of the unity in Ukraine that has been lost, while it is Ukrain's unity that makes this war a nightmare for the Russian army.

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2045 on: August 22, 2022, 07:57:22 AM »
On one hand the Dugins might be non-combatants. I don't want any non-combatants faced with violence.

On the other hand, they have actively and publicly called for war and that inevitably leads to Ukrainian deaths. And massive destruction of Ukraine.

People might call civilian deaths from war "collateral deaths" but it is just murder...  Those civilians would not be dead except for Putin and his team of murderers.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2046 on: August 22, 2022, 07:59:27 AM »
I don't think it's right to kill noncombatants with car bombs - but I surely will not cry about those two. Somewhen I watched 10 minutes with father and also seen that video before and I was close to vomiting.

That agressiveness alone - how can the Russians watch that without feeling sick? (Well, a lot of Trump rallies are nearly that bad, not to mention past events, so maye I should not point out nationalities)

I find it funny that in that linked video she speaks of the unity in Ukraine that has been lost, while it is Ukrain's unity that makes this war a nightmare for the Russian army.

Russians seem really good at saying black is white and up is down.  Maybe, it's the language.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2047 on: August 22, 2022, 08:24:37 AM »
How do you define noncombatants?

If you're picking up a weapon and shooting people, you're a combatant. That's pretty clear.
If you're not picking up a weapon, but you are active in other ways that advance or enable the fighting, are you really a noncombatant?

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2048 on: August 22, 2022, 10:23:54 AM »
How do you define noncombatants?

If you're picking up a weapon and shooting people, you're a combatant. That's pretty clear.
If you're not picking up a weapon, but you are active in other ways that advance or enable the fighting, are you really a noncombatant?
In the legal sense, yes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combatant#Status_of_combatants

Everthing else would be -oops - bloody messy. For example there is the argumentation that by sending weapons to Ukraine, you advance and enable fighting. Are you a combatant if you send a gun to Ukraine?

jinga nation

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2049 on: August 22, 2022, 10:49:35 AM »
Daria Dugina also was no slouch in promoting Greater Russian fascism and genocide in Ukraine.
Here is a recent clip from Russian TV:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1561381788211036165
Ain't karma a bitch.
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