Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 772373 times)

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1750 on: May 24, 2022, 09:48:22 PM »
And the race is on to see if more Ukrainians or more Americans are killed by non-self-inflicted small arms fire in 2022.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1751 on: May 25, 2022, 07:05:27 AM »
And the race is on to see if more Ukrainians or more Americans are killed by non-self-inflicted small arms fire in 2022.

If it's only small arms than this probabyl goes to the US.
I mean the US has more gun death per capita than many countries with an ongoing (civil) war.

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1752 on: May 25, 2022, 07:52:20 AM »
And the race is on to see if more Ukrainians or more Americans are killed by non-self-inflicted small arms fire in 2022.

If it's only small arms than this probabyl goes to the US.
I mean the US has more gun death per capita than many countries with an ongoing (civil) war.

Let's not discuss America's legally enshrined gun fetish and the completely predictable result of it.  Until Americans want fewer mass shootings rather than easy access to firearms, there doesn't seem to be any point.

So hopes and prayers again . . . because anything more concrete is out of the question.

BicycleB

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1753 on: May 26, 2022, 11:59:13 AM »
And the race is on to see if more Ukrainians or more Americans are killed by non-self-inflicted small arms fire in 2022.

If it's only small arms than this probabyl goes to the US.
I mean the US has more gun death per capita than many countries with an ongoing (civil) war.

Let's not discuss America's legally enshrined gun fetish and the completely predictable result of it. Until Americans want fewer mass shootings rather than easy access to firearms, there doesn't seem to be any point.

So hopes and prayers again . . . because anything more concrete is out of the question.

To be fair, huge majorities of Americans favor stronger regulation of firearms. What's needed is for that support to translate into action, either through a very wise statute revision plan that gets advanced with a lot of effort and luck, or a broader upgrade of American politics that brings USA closer to democratic functioning (aka, results consistently reflect the people's desires).

Since legislation is less unlikely than broad reform, here's a plausible suggestion from an American gun aficionado (not me, the anonymous contributor in the article below). Hope and pray for this, please! :)

From Charlie Sykes in The Bulwark:

Laws (and culture) make a difference, and other countries have, in fact, “fixed” the gun problem — or at least the problem of mass shootings:

Image
And, even here, there are gun control laws that would make a difference.

Red flag laws (David French makes a great case here.)

Raising age for gun purchases

Banning high capacity magazines

Banning bump stocks

Universal background checks

A few years back Nicholas Kristof noted how safety measures/laws had dramatically reduced automobile-related deaths. “What would a public health approach look like for guns if it were modeled after cars?” he asked. It would include:
(long list of stuff in an image that didn't transmit to this forum; the list components individually plausible, arguably - BB)


Actual experience also shows that laws can make a difference:
(Bikey: Sykes' column showed a graph, in which connecticut passed a gun licensing law and Missouri repealed one; CT's gun deaths went up, Missouri's down)

All of this is perfectly reasonable. It’s also important to recognize two political realities:

(1) the GOP’s refusal to consider any realistic gun laws is nearly absolute, but

(2) several measures continue to enjoy widespread public support.

Strong majorities of Americans still back common-sense measures. Here’s a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted entirely after the shooting in Uvalde:

Requiring background checks on all gun sales: Eighty-eight percent strongly or somewhat support; 8% strongly or somewhat oppose. Net approval: +80

Creating a national database with info about each gun sale: Seventy-five percent strongly or somewhat support; 18% strongly or somewhat oppose. Net approval: +57

Banning assault-style weapons: Sixty-seven percent strongly or somewhat support; 25% strongly or somewhat oppose. Net approval: +42

Preventing sales of all firearms to people reported as dangerous to law enforcement by a mental health provider: Eighty-four percent strongly or somewhat support; 9% strongly or somewhat oppose. Net approval: +75

Making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks: Eighty-one percent strongly or somewhat support; 11% strongly or somewhat oppose. Net approval: +70

**

Some more suggestions from a Bulwark reader, (who asked that his name be withheld.)

I’m m an avid firearms enthusiast a NRA life member since I was 16. I support more restrictions however and they will affect me. Here are some ideas I have never heard discussed.

Instead of trying to ban sales of “assault weapons” with all the definition challenges that made the Clinton AWB pretty much a moot point – defining features were tweaked and the basic firearm platform continued to sell . . .

Amend the National Firearms Act of 1934 (NFA) which outlawed fully automatic weapons outside of stringent special NFA licensing of same.

•Add to the NFA controls – magazine fed, centerfire semi-auto rifles/carbines (this does sweep up some traditional hunting rifles with AKs and AR’s but not that many)

•Add to the NFA controls – rifle caliber pistols (AK pistols and AR pistols have been a hot commodity for years among the law abiding and the criminal gangs). “Rifle caliber” is not that hard to legally define in the gun world and there could be a mechanism to append a named caliber list the ATF publishes)

•Those two bullet points reflect a more easily defined class of firearms than previous attempts.

•All the good people who feel they must own one can; they just have to go through some pretty rigorous ATF screening and licensing then have to secure their NFA firearm from access to anyone not named in the registration.

•We’re never going to get rid of all the tens of millions of these anyway.

•Those who retain them without NFA licensing – are committing a felony. Enforce that.

•Create a channel for liquidating specimens to a LEO entity and qualify for a state or federal tax deduction of say, “a thousand bucks”. Most of them aren’t worth that. This worked pretty well for full auto weapons and “sawed off” shotguns back in the day.

Exit take: Failure to act is not inevitable. It’s a choice. And it means that there will be more mass shootings. More dead kids. And that’s a choice too.



« Last Edit: May 26, 2022, 12:05:40 PM by BicycleB »

BicycleB

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1754 on: May 26, 2022, 12:03:06 PM »
Sorry about taking the off topic bait, ya'll. To get back on track, here's an article from Misha Firer, an anti-Russian expat from Russia, about the overall causes and conduct of the war.

It's shorter than my last post, throws govts on both sides under the bus, and lauds the people of both Ukraine and the West.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-next-for-Russia-after-the-Ukraine-invasion

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1755 on: May 26, 2022, 12:22:24 PM »
Exit take: Failure to act is not inevitable. It’s a choice. And it means that there will be more mass shootings. More dead kids. And that’s a choice too.

Your suggestions sound pretty reasonable.  It would be lovely if some were implemented, but I'm pessimistic about the odds of that happening.  There is certainly a choice being made.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1756 on: May 26, 2022, 03:47:42 PM »
I wonder if it would go over if some organization started to take in guns from people in USA to send to Ukraine.  I realize that the majority wouldn't be military issue, but they may help arm militias of various villages.

Just another weird thought and now it's time to return to normal war news.

Glenstache

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1757 on: May 26, 2022, 04:02:08 PM »
I wonder if it would go over if some organization started to take in guns from people in USA to send to Ukraine.  I realize that the majority wouldn't be military issue, but they may help arm militias of various villages.

Just another weird thought and now it's time to return to normal war news.
Could the organization be Save The Children, only instead of a picture of a sponsored child, it would be a fighter in Ukraine? "Here's a picture of Vlodomyr, who very much wants your AR-15."

TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1758 on: May 26, 2022, 04:19:42 PM »
I wonder if it would go over if some organization started to take in guns from people in USA to send to Ukraine.  I realize that the majority wouldn't be military issue, but they may help arm militias of various villages.

Just another weird thought and now it's time to return to normal war news.
Could the organization be Save The Children, only instead of a picture of a sponsored child, it would be a fighter in Ukraine? "Here's a picture of Vlodomyr, who very much wants your AR-15."

I'm down with that. I don't have an AR, but I'd be happy to donate some arms and ammo.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1759 on: May 26, 2022, 06:38:38 PM »
Maybe the thing could be "piggybacked" to an existing organization.

I've seen several notices that the Ukrainian soldiers on the Eastern front have an arms imbalance of 20:1.  In other words the Russians shoot 20 shells for the Ukrainian 1 shell.  I guess those 90 howitzers are dwarfed by the Russian giant.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1760 on: May 27, 2022, 03:32:05 AM »
To be fair, huge majorities of Americans favor stronger regulation of firearms. What's needed is for that support to translate into action, either through a very wise statute revision plan that gets advanced with a lot of effort and luck, or a broader upgrade of American politics that brings USA closer to democratic functioning (aka, results consistently reflect the people's desires).

The fun thing is that (like most) it's a representative democracy, where the elected leaders are supposed to be better informed and do better decisions than most of the voters (because they actually work on the stuff instead on having 2 hours on Sunday to look into it).

Quote
I wonder if it would go over if some organization started to take in guns from people in USA to send to Ukraine.  I realize that the majority wouldn't be military issue, but they may help arm militias of various villages.
Would be a nice way to get rid of all those weapons. Russia is killing civilians anyway, so why not give everyone a rifle. Make every village into a fortress.

But back to reality, heavy weapons is really where it's in it now.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1761 on: May 27, 2022, 05:07:36 AM »
In the different efforts to help Ukraine, some people have discovered that e.g. transporting medicines across borders requires paperwork, more so if it involves controlled substances like narcotic grade painkillers.  I came across a Rotary club (Riga International) that almost stumbled on that hurdle but they decided to push through.  Now they are experts in this field and other help organizations turn to them to handle the paperwork for such deliveries.  My contact said "I would never have expected Rotary to make me a drug dealer". :)

For weapons, there are even more hurdles - including a fear from e.g. people in my country that some rifles and such will come back in the hands of criminals.  To have a good grip on everything in the fog of war is not easy.  Many of the guns and hand grenades that gangsters use in Sweden now are apparently surplus from the war in the Balkans, so they don't want it repeated with Russian and Ukrainian guns too.  That said, I personally would love to see more AKs and ARs in the hands of the Ukrainian heroes rather than in the streets of countries who are not at war.

I have one friend who took a hands on approach - he is busy purchasing heavy trucks on the used market in Sweden, the ones costing less than 2K EUR but still running, and then fills them with supplies and drive them down to Ukraine. Once across the border, he hands the keys to the truck over the the local authorities in Ukraine and walks back across the border by foot and then tries to find a ride home.  It is apparently appreciated.  He recently posted an instruction on LinkedIn on how to fix the paperwork to make this export of the actual truck legal.  Very hands on.  I think he has managed to get four trucks exported by now.

Another very concrete help that other friends are involved in are more high-tech.  E.g. to buy computer network equipment for e.g. fiber cable repair and have it delivered to Ukraine.  There is much broken infrastructure now. 
« Last Edit: May 27, 2022, 05:13:15 AM by lemanfan »

TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1762 on: May 27, 2022, 10:22:04 AM »
Maybe the thing could be "piggybacked" to an existing organization.

I've seen several notices that the Ukrainian soldiers on the Eastern front have an arms imbalance of 20:1.  In other words the Russians shoot 20 shells for the Ukrainian 1 shell.  I guess those 90 howitzers are dwarfed by the Russian giant.
I believe Russia started the invasion with ~1800 artillery units.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1763 on: May 27, 2022, 12:56:19 PM »
Maybe the thing could be "piggybacked" to an existing organization.

I've seen several notices that the Ukrainian soldiers on the Eastern front have an arms imbalance of 20:1.  In other words the Russians shoot 20 shells for the Ukrainian 1 shell.  I guess those 90 howitzers are dwarfed by the Russian giant.
I believe Russia started the invasion with ~1800 artillery units.
1800 units, with more than one artillery piece per unit, or 1800 artillery pieces total?

gooki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1764 on: May 27, 2022, 07:20:56 PM »
Quote
I have one friend who took a hands on approach - he is busy purchasing heavy trucks on the used market in Sweden, the ones costing less than 2K EUR but still running, and then fills them with supplies and drive them down to Ukraine. Once across the border, he hands the keys to the truck over the the local authorities in Ukraine and walks back across the border by foot and then tries to find a ride home.  It is apparently appreciated.  He recently posted an instruction on LinkedIn on how to fix the paperwork to make this export of the actual truck legal.  Very hands on.  I think he has managed to get four trucks exported by now.

You have an awesome friend.

Quote
1800 units, with more than one artillery piece per unit, or 1800 artillery pieces total?

1,600 artillery firing devices were sent for the first phase of the invasion out of a total of 5,700 in the Russian army. Also, there's no shortage of artillery rounds in Russia. If you look at Russia's behavior of back filling lost tanks, it's safe to assume their back filling lost artillery equipment.

Once they hit 50-80% total loss, I'd expect the back filling to stop as they will reserve the remaining functioning units for the protection of Moscow and their border. We're nearly at that point for tanks.

https://www.minusrus.com/en
« Last Edit: May 27, 2022, 07:24:34 PM by gooki »

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1765 on: May 27, 2022, 07:53:27 PM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/27/artillery-long-range-ukraine-rocket-system/

Being reported that the US is going to send the MLRS, or Multiple Launch Rocket System. Per my googling, this is an impressive weapon, range around 40 miles.

Russia is of course blustering about escalation. Does anyone actually believe them at this point? (real question)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1766 on: May 27, 2022, 10:18:01 PM »
Maybe the U.S. could think a couple steps ahead, and anticipate what Russians will do to attack MLS systems?  My guess would be more aircraft, so defensive SAM batteries might be a nice accompaniment.

gooki - What stunning losses, including most of the force Russia allocated to invade Ukraine.  Russia has lost not only every tank it intended for the invasion, but 40% of it's tanks overall.  It's artillary definitely needs more losses.

If Germany tries to act like it has the moral high ground, keep in mind they're sending more money to Russia than the U.S. is to Ukraine.  Germany caved in to Russian demands to be paid in Russian Rubles.  At some point Russia will demand payment in rifles and Germany will probably send those, too - maybe I'm too cynical, but Germany's actions don't help (Italy and Hungary also deserve blame, but Germany is the leader)

gooki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1767 on: May 27, 2022, 11:45:00 PM »
If Russia keep these losses going for another three months, I doubt they'll have an army any more, just some foot soldiers towing artillery behind stolen Toyota's.

As for the German government, who knows what's going on there. Probably drowning under their own bureaucracy. If they weren't part of NATO, Putin would have had more success invading them than the Ukraine. FWIW, I understand their reluctance to provide arms, with their history I'm sure they don't want to repeate the past. But they're not being clear about that.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2022, 11:50:56 PM by gooki »

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1768 on: May 28, 2022, 02:32:41 AM »
Quote
1800 units, with more than one artillery piece per unit, or 1800 artillery pieces total?

1,600 artillery firing devices were sent for the first phase of the invasion out of a total of 5,700 in the Russian army. Also, there's no shortage of artillery rounds in Russia. If you look at Russia's behavior of back filling lost tanks, it's safe to assume their back filling lost artillery equipment.

Once they hit 50-80% total loss, I'd expect the back filling to stop as they will reserve the remaining functioning units for the protection of Moscow and their border. We're nearly at that point for tanks.

https://www.minusrus.com/en
The older tanks indicate that Russia is gettin trops from the east and leaves the better equipped Western tropps where they are.
They have a lot more tanks, but those are literal rustbuckets, parket outside for decades.

Quote
As for the German government, who knows what's going on there.
Several things going on, but mostly I suppose (some of) our big heads still think that our economy cannot survive a gas-out. (estimated range up to 8% recession, practically the same level as Russia with the sanctions)



Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1769 on: May 28, 2022, 06:26:00 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/27/artillery-long-range-ukraine-rocket-system/

Being reported that the US is going to send the MLRS, or Multiple Launch Rocket System. Per my googling, this is an impressive weapon, range around 40 miles.

Russia is of course blustering about escalation. Does anyone actually believe them at this point? (real question)


Pretty good article describing what MLRS can do for Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/what-himars-rocket-systems-can-and-cant-do-for-ukraine

To answer your question, nobody listens to Lavrov. He's been threatening to attack NATO weapons shipments since Week 2, but the closest they've come has been to hit warehouses deep inside Ukraine.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1770 on: May 28, 2022, 07:06:25 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/27/artillery-long-range-ukraine-rocket-system/

Being reported that the US is going to send the MLRS, or Multiple Launch Rocket System. Per my googling, this is an impressive weapon, range around 40 miles.

Russia is of course blustering about escalation. Does anyone actually believe them at this point? (real question)

They WILL escalate.  The last go around they raised the enlistment age from 40 to 45.  They will escalate and raise it to 65 years of age.  OR They will lower it to 12 years of age.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1771 on: May 28, 2022, 07:52:31 PM »
Well, if this goes on long enough, then a whole lot of scrap metal is going to end up getting back into circulation. IE, all those tanks that have been sitting for decades.

Ordinary people in Lithuania raised money to by a Bayraktar drone for Ukraine. That's impressive.
https://www.newsweek.com/lithuanian-citizens-pool-47m-buy-advanced-drone-ukraines-military-1711163

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1772 on: May 30, 2022, 09:22:02 AM »
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1705708/nato-is-no-longer-bound-by-commitments-to-russia-and-will-beef-up-eastern-europe-presence-says-deputy-secretary-general

NATO apparently considers any restrictions about building up forces near Russia to be not applicable. Turns out that when there's an agreement between two parties, and one party breaks the agreement, the other party may decide that they're not bound by it anymore.

Zamboni

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1773 on: May 30, 2022, 10:35:14 AM »
Yes, once a contract is broken, it is broken and no longer applies unless there is some sort of severance language in the provision. (PS I'm not a lawyer, just thinking about contracts I've signed.)

Glenstache

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1774 on: May 30, 2022, 11:07:06 AM »
Yes, once a contract is broken, it is broken and no longer applies unless there is some sort of severance language in the provision. (PS I'm not a lawyer, just thinking about contracts I've signed.)
I'm pretty sure the Russians are big fans of non-compete clauses.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1775 on: May 30, 2022, 11:16:50 AM »
Yes, once a contract is broken, it is broken and no longer applies unless there is some sort of severance language in the provision. (PS I'm not a lawyer, just thinking about contracts I've signed.)
I'm pretty sure the Russians are big fans of non-compete clauses.

Almost Force Majeure (Acts of Putin)

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1776 on: May 30, 2022, 02:04:48 PM »
Well, from what I can tell, Putin has not liked the idea or reality of NATO troops and weapons along the Russian boarder. And it seems that he's going to get more of that in future. Sheesh, how dumb can this guy be? Even living in a bubble, he's got to be aware of the 1997 (I think? didn't double check the year) agreement with NATO.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1777 on: May 30, 2022, 02:42:52 PM »
Well, from what I can tell, Putin has not liked the idea or reality of NATO troops and weapons along the Russian boarder. And it seems that he's going to get more of that in future. Sheesh, how dumb can this guy be? Even living in a bubble, he's got to be aware of the 1997 (I think? didn't double check the year) agreement with NATO.

For Putin an agreement is something you let other act upon until you are ready to grab whatever you want.
He has done it before - several times - and this time he just miscalculated and now got a lot more on his plate than he wanted. Not exactly the first time something like that happened in the world. Especially for world-disconnected autocrats.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1778 on: May 30, 2022, 03:50:56 PM »
Well, from what I can tell, Putin has not liked the idea or reality of NATO troops and weapons along the Russian boarder. And it seems that he's going to get more of that in future. Sheesh, how dumb can this guy be? Even living in a bubble, he's got to be aware of the 1997 (I think? didn't double check the year) agreement with NATO.

For Putin an agreement is something you let other act upon until you are ready to grab whatever you want.
He has done it before - several times - and this time he just miscalculated and now got a lot more on his plate than he wanted. Not exactly the first time something like that happened in the world. Especially for world-disconnected autocrats.

Exactly!  You see these people claiming Zelenskyy could have avoided this war had he made a deal for neutrality.  Reality shows they are wrong.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1779 on: May 30, 2022, 08:43:00 PM »
Well, from what I can tell, Putin has not liked the idea or reality of NATO troops and weapons along the Russian boarder. And it seems that he's going to get more of that in future. Sheesh, how dumb can this guy be? Even living in a bubble, he's got to be aware of the 1997 (I think? didn't double check the year) agreement with NATO.

For Putin an agreement is something you let other act upon until you are ready to grab whatever you want.
He has done it before - several times - and this time he just miscalculated and now got a lot more on his plate than he wanted. Not exactly the first time something like that happened in the world. Especially for world-disconnected autocrats.

Exactly!  You see these people claiming Zelenskyy could have avoided this war had he made a deal for neutrality.  Reality shows they are wrong.

Well, I hope Putin chokes on it this time.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1780 on: May 31, 2022, 03:02:28 AM »
Well, from what I can tell, Putin has not liked the idea or reality of NATO troops and weapons along the Russian boarder. And it seems that he's going to get more of that in future. Sheesh, how dumb can this guy be? Even living in a bubble, he's got to be aware of the 1997 (I think? didn't double check the year) agreement with NATO.

For Putin an agreement is something you let other act upon until you are ready to grab whatever you want.
He has done it before - several times - and this time he just miscalculated and now got a lot more on his plate than he wanted. Not exactly the first time something like that happened in the world. Especially for world-disconnected autocrats.

Exactly!  You see these people claiming Zelenskyy could have avoided this war had he made a deal for neutrality.  Reality shows they are wrong.
Oh, but he could have just given Russia Crimea and this would.. okay, and then the very eastern edge of Ukraine, and no war... well, okay, also the Donbas.  But after that, Russia would... well invade because it wants to take the whole country.  But if Ukraine had just surrendered everything, no war!

And if Moldova just surrendered the Dniper region, then... well if they surrendered the eastern part of the country...

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1781 on: May 31, 2022, 10:21:44 AM »
Something something not learning history something something repeating....

“The Sudetenland is the last territorial demand I have to make in Europe.” -- Adolf Hitler, September 26, 1938

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1782 on: June 02, 2022, 03:04:02 PM »
This thing about Putin having Cancer doesn't seem to go away.  Newsweek has a piece on this.  This isn't Newsweek but references it.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjechuud5

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1783 on: June 03, 2022, 12:46:54 AM »
This thing about Putin having Cancer doesn't seem to go away.  Newsweek has a piece on this.  This isn't Newsweek but references it.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjechuud5
The thing is: It may well be true. And explain a lot. Including maybe even the long tables (suppressed immune system?).
The other thing is: Because it would be so important (ahem... read the book in my sig) it surely is something the CIA etc. would put up to attack him even if untrue.

We will probably never know.
If he has cancer though... it's hard not to root for it.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1784 on: June 03, 2022, 01:49:56 PM »
This thing about Putin having Cancer doesn't seem to go away.  Newsweek has a piece on this.  This isn't Newsweek but references it.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjechuud5
The thing is: It may well be true. And explain a lot. Including maybe even the long tables (suppressed immune system?).
The other thing is: Because it would be so important (ahem... read the book in my sig) it surely is something the CIA etc. would put up to attack him even if untrue.

We will probably never know.
If he has cancer though... it's hard not to root for it.
Old style Soviet leaders had "minor colds" until the death announcement  (Andropov etc).

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1785 on: June 03, 2022, 08:04:47 PM »
https://news.yahoo.com/general-dvornikov-no-longer-command-155200379.html

Unconfirmed report that General Dvornikov has been replaced after less than two months in command of the war.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1532823505968013314

For the last week Ukrainian forces have been conducting a fighting withdrawal from Severodonetsk. Yesterday they flipped the script and counterattacked taking back a portion of the city after getting Russian forces into unfavorable terrain. Ukraine presidential advisor Arestovich gave an interview a couple days ago insinuating there was a counterattack in the works and we thought he was being a troll. Nope, he was dead serious.

This is important because it looks like most of Russia's available reserves have been thrown into this battle. A month ago the Russian plan was to encircle the region between Lyman and Popasna. Lyman was only taken a few days ago (and is still on the wrong side of the river) and the Popasna breakout has been stopped and might be pushed back. SevDon is now a frontal assault consisting of Russian army, Chechens, Wagner, and DPR. At the same time, Ukrainian forces are attacking in the southwest of the country.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1786 on: June 03, 2022, 08:45:04 PM »
https://news.yahoo.com/general-dvornikov-no-longer-command-155200379.html

Unconfirmed report that General Dvornikov has been replaced after less than two months in command of the war.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1532823505968013314

For the last week Ukrainian forces have been conducting a fighting withdrawal from Severodonetsk. Yesterday they flipped the script and counterattacked taking back a portion of the city after getting Russian forces into unfavorable terrain. Ukraine presidential advisor Arestovich gave an interview a couple days ago insinuating there was a counterattack in the works and we thought he was being a troll. Nope, he was dead serious.

This is important because it looks like most of Russia's available reserves have been thrown into this battle. A month ago the Russian plan was to encircle the region between Lyman and Popasna. Lyman was only taken a few days ago (and is still on the wrong side of the river) and the Popasna breakout has been stopped and might be pushed back. SevDon is now a frontal assault consisting of Russian army, Chechens, Wagner, and DPR. At the same time, Ukrainian forces are attacking in the southwest of the country.

If Russia is throwing everything into this war, sooner or later some other country or organization will take advantage of that fact in some part of Russia.  It seems like whatever cause the Russians attacked for doesn't mean a whole lot except the main one.

Just a reminder of the real reason for this war:

Hydrocarbon resources in Ukraine are concentrated in three regions: the Carpathian region in the west; the Dnieper-Donetsk region in the east; and the Black Sea-Sea of Azov region in the south.

Russia has had a good thing going selling the oil and gas.  Even with all the sanctions, they are supposed to have a stellar year in gas sales this year.  Any good gangster knows to cut out his competition.

The oil and gas sector accounted up to roughly 40% of Russia's federal budget revenues, and up to 60% of its exports in 2019. In 2019, the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry estimated the value of natural resources to 60% of the country's GDP.

Gangster wars for territory can get quite bloody.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1787 on: June 03, 2022, 11:25:53 PM »
https://news.yahoo.com/general-dvornikov-no-longer-command-155200379.html

Unconfirmed report that General Dvornikov has been replaced after less than two months in command of the war.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1532823505968013314

For the last week Ukrainian forces have been conducting a fighting withdrawal from Severodonetsk. Yesterday they flipped the script and counterattacked taking back a portion of the city after getting Russian forces into unfavorable terrain. Ukraine presidential advisor Arestovich gave an interview a couple days ago insinuating there was a counterattack in the works and we thought he was being a troll. Nope, he was dead serious.

This is important because it looks like most of Russia's available reserves have been thrown into this battle. A month ago the Russian plan was to encircle the region between Lyman and Popasna. Lyman was only taken a few days ago (and is still on the wrong side of the river) and the Popasna breakout has been stopped and might be pushed back. SevDon is now a frontal assault consisting of Russian army, Chechens, Wagner, and DPR. At the same time, Ukrainian forces are attacking in the southwest of the country.

If Russia is throwing everything into this war, sooner or later some other country or organization will take advantage of that fact in some part of Russia.  It seems like whatever cause the Russians attacked for doesn't mean a whole lot except the main one.

Just a reminder of the real reason for this war:

Hydrocarbon resources in Ukraine are concentrated in three regions: the Carpathian region in the west; the Dnieper-Donetsk region in the east; and the Black Sea-Sea of Azov region in the south.

Russia has had a good thing going selling the oil and gas.  Even with all the sanctions, they are supposed to have a stellar year in gas sales this year.  Any good gangster knows to cut out his competition.

The oil and gas sector accounted up to roughly 40% of Russia's federal budget revenues, and up to 60% of its exports in 2019. In 2019, the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry estimated the value of natural resources to 60% of the country's GDP.

Gangster wars for territory can get quite bloody.
But the Ukrainian gas and oil is quite small compared to Russia's
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf
Ukraine has 3% of Russia's gas reserves. (page 34)
Ukrainian gas production is 3% of Russia production.

Discussion: https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/04/russia-does-not-seem-to-be-after-ukraines-gas-reserves.html

I believe the war is an attempt to increase the tax base by annexing the equivalent 30% of Russia's population.
Putin and advisors truly believe that the fall of the Soviet Union was a very bad thing.
 
   Midyear Population (million)   Average Annual Growth Rate    Density (Persons per sq. km.)   Total Fertility Rate (Births per woman)
Russia   142                                   -0.20%                                      8.7                                           1.6
Ukraine   43.5                                   -0.50%                                     75.1                                           1.56
Ukraine population
as % of Russia   30.6%         

Bangladesh   165.7                    0.90%                                  1273                                                  2.09
US         337                                   0.70%                                     36.9                                          1.84

https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country?COUNTRY_YEAR=2022&COUNTRY_YR_ANIM=2022&FIPS_SINGLE=UP&dashPages=DASH

Why would your gangster take over a 3% "two-bit" competitor?

By sheer coincidence the "96 hour special military operation" is 3% of the current war time to date.
mmmm, maybe you have something there  :-)

Edit: Wikipedia says the Russian Army is 280,000 active duty.     Army of Bangladesh is 260,000 personnel  also fixed typo 
« Last Edit: June 03, 2022, 11:52:06 PM by markbike528CBX »

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1788 on: June 04, 2022, 12:15:19 AM »


Russia has had a good thing going selling the oil and gas.  Even with all the sanctions, they are supposed to have a stellar year in gas sales this year.

It might be their last.  The price of energy has gone up, so they're going to make some extra money. Also, the EU nations are stocking up on natural gas in preparation for either gas being embargoed or Russia cutting it off when winter comes around. 

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1789 on: June 04, 2022, 06:22:51 AM »
https://news.yahoo.com/general-dvornikov-no-longer-command-155200379.html

Unconfirmed report that General Dvornikov has been replaced after less than two months in command of the war.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1532823505968013314

For the last week Ukrainian forces have been conducting a fighting withdrawal from Severodonetsk. Yesterday they flipped the script and counterattacked taking back a portion of the city after getting Russian forces into unfavorable terrain. Ukraine presidential advisor Arestovich gave an interview a couple days ago insinuating there was a counterattack in the works and we thought he was being a troll. Nope, he was dead serious.

This is important because it looks like most of Russia's available reserves have been thrown into this battle. A month ago the Russian plan was to encircle the region between Lyman and Popasna. Lyman was only taken a few days ago (and is still on the wrong side of the river) and the Popasna breakout has been stopped and might be pushed back. SevDon is now a frontal assault consisting of Russian army, Chechens, Wagner, and DPR. At the same time, Ukrainian forces are attacking in the southwest of the country.

If Russia is throwing everything into this war, sooner or later some other country or organization will take advantage of that fact in some part of Russia.  It seems like whatever cause the Russians attacked for doesn't mean a whole lot except the main one.

Just a reminder of the real reason for this war:

Hydrocarbon resources in Ukraine are concentrated in three regions: the Carpathian region in the west; the Dnieper-Donetsk region in the east; and the Black Sea-Sea of Azov region in the south.

Russia has had a good thing going selling the oil and gas.  Even with all the sanctions, they are supposed to have a stellar year in gas sales this year.  Any good gangster knows to cut out his competition.

The oil and gas sector accounted up to roughly 40% of Russia's federal budget revenues, and up to 60% of its exports in 2019. In 2019, the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry estimated the value of natural resources to 60% of the country's GDP.

Gangster wars for territory can get quite bloody.
But the Ukrainian gas and oil is quite small compared to Russia's
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf
Ukraine has 3% of Russia's gas reserves. (page 34)
Ukrainian gas production is 3% of Russia production.

Discussion: https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/04/russia-does-not-seem-to-be-after-ukraines-gas-reserves.html

I believe the war is an attempt to increase the tax base by annexing the equivalent 30% of Russia's population.
Putin and advisors truly believe that the fall of the Soviet Union was a very bad thing.
 
   Midyear Population (million)   Average Annual Growth Rate    Density (Persons per sq. km.)   Total Fertility Rate (Births per woman)
Russia   142                                   -0.20%                                      8.7                                           1.6
Ukraine   43.5                                   -0.50%                                     75.1                                           1.56
Ukraine population
as % of Russia   30.6%         

Bangladesh   165.7                    0.90%                                  1273                                                  2.09
US         337                                   0.70%                                     36.9                                          1.84

https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country?COUNTRY_YEAR=2022&COUNTRY_YR_ANIM=2022&FIPS_SINGLE=UP&dashPages=DASH

Why would your gangster take over a 3% "two-bit" competitor?

By sheer coincidence the "96 hour special military operation" is 3% of the current war time to date.
mmmm, maybe you have something there  :-)

Edit: Wikipedia says the Russian Army is 280,000 active duty.     Army of Bangladesh is 260,000 personnel  also fixed typo 

Excellent response on the gas thing.  Since the land they have taken and the land currently seeing the fighting is where most of the gas deposits are, it seemed to fit like a key in the right lock.  However, the links you provided are very good.  Unless you are a modern Republican, it's hard to argue with facts.

In my own primitive way I try to figure things out.  There are few Nazis in Ukraine.  Ukraine posed no credible threat to Russia.  After Finland and Sweden join NATO (given Turkey's blessing) NATO will have expanded, Russia no longer fights for an economic ideology, and the claims that Ukraine is not a "real" country are obviously not credible.  The tax base thing is odd as Ukraine is one of Europe's poorest countries.

I guess the fact that the population of Russia is falling could be a reason for the war, but even that seems insane.  It is just having more people and land under your control.  Yeh, people say Putin is doing this to get the old empire back.  I guess he longs for the good old days that never were.  However, he doesn't take all that good care of the people he's got right now.

I guess if I live another 20-30 years some historian will have figured out the real reasons for this war and I'll see it in a history book.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1790 on: June 04, 2022, 07:32:51 AM »
So the Russians were unable to encircle the city of Severodonetsk but went ahead with a concentrated attack on the town anyways.
If it is true that the Ukrainians are successfully turning back the attack of such a concentrated force in an urban environment, the view of the situation as a trap for Russian infantry and armor, which is now deprived of artillery support, becomes more plausible.

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1532410485483749380

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1791 on: June 04, 2022, 10:52:17 AM »
Unless you are a modern Republican, it's hard to argue with facts.
That is out of line.  Please see Forum Rule #1.
Quote
In my own primitive way I try to figure things out.  There are few Nazis in Ukraine.  Ukraine posed no credible threat to Russia.  After Finland and Sweden join NATO (given Turkey's blessing) NATO will have expanded, Russia no longer fights for an economic ideology, and the claims that Ukraine is not a "real" country are obviously not credible.  The tax base thing is odd as Ukraine is one of Europe's poorest countries.

I guess the fact that the population of Russia is falling could be a reason for the war, but even that seems insane.  It is just having more people and land under your control.  Yeh, people say Putin is doing this to get the old empire back.  I guess he longs for the good old days that never were.  However, he doesn't take all that good care of the people he's got right now.
I think the problem is that you're trying to look at this from a logical, economic, etc perspective.  None of that seems to apply to this war.

A couple decades ago, I spent a couple years in Russia, including the time around 9/11.  As an American, I observed that the Russian people fell into two camps:  those who were ready to join the rest of the world, and those who pined for the glory days of the Soviet Union.  Putin appears to fall squarely into the latter camp.  If that is an accurate reflection of his attitude, this whole war may simply be an attempt to re-establish Russia as a Great Power, purely for the emotional/morale/legacy boost.  A bit dollop of believing your own propaganda and surrounding yourself with yes-men would merely enable the aspiration.

Tyson

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1792 on: June 04, 2022, 10:53:09 AM »
Excellent response on the gas thing.  Since the land they have taken and the land currently seeing the fighting is where most of the gas deposits are, it seemed to fit like a key in the right lock.  However, the links you provided are very good.  Unless you are a modern Republican, it's hard to argue with facts.

In my own primitive way I try to figure things out.  There are few Nazis in Ukraine.  Ukraine posed no credible threat to Russia.  After Finland and Sweden join NATO (given Turkey's blessing) NATO will have expanded, Russia no longer fights for an economic ideology, and the claims that Ukraine is not a "real" country are obviously not credible.  The tax base thing is odd as Ukraine is one of Europe's poorest countries.

I guess the fact that the population of Russia is falling could be a reason for the war, but even that seems insane.  It is just having more people and land under your control.  Yeh, people say Putin is doing this to get the old empire back.  I guess he longs for the good old days that never were.  However, he doesn't take all that good care of the people he's got right now.

I guess if I live another 20-30 years some historian will have figured out the real reasons for this war and I'll see it in a history book.

I think it's too narrow to look at just Ukraine when trying to figure out Putin's motivations.   I think something like "I want all former Soviet countries back under Russian rule" is closer to what Putin wants.  Ukraine just seemed like the easiest next piece to grab. 

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1793 on: June 04, 2022, 11:26:20 AM »
Excellent response on the gas thing.  Since the land they have taken and the land currently seeing the fighting is where most of the gas deposits are, it seemed to fit like a key in the right lock.  However, the links you provided are very good.  Unless you are a modern Republican, it's hard to argue with facts.

In my own primitive way I try to figure things out.  There are few Nazis in Ukraine.  Ukraine posed no credible threat to Russia.  After Finland and Sweden join NATO (given Turkey's blessing) NATO will have expanded, Russia no longer fights for an economic ideology, and the claims that Ukraine is not a "real" country are obviously not credible.  The tax base thing is odd as Ukraine is one of Europe's poorest countries.

I guess the fact that the population of Russia is falling could be a reason for the war, but even that seems insane.  It is just having more people and land under your control.  Yeh, people say Putin is doing this to get the old empire back.  I guess he longs for the good old days that never were.  However, he doesn't take all that good care of the people he's got right now.

I guess if I live another 20-30 years some historian will have figured out the real reasons for this war and I'll see it in a history book.

I think it's too narrow to look at just Ukraine when trying to figure out Putin's motivations.   I think something like "I want all former Soviet countries back under Russian rule" is closer to what Putin wants.  Ukraine just seemed like the easiest next piece to grab.

When one looks at the Russian Federation it's pretty clear that it is in fact a Russian empire albeit only a shadow of the one it once was.
With that perspective, the current war is an imperialist war and that happens to be the simplest explanation, not only for the war but also for Russia's general hostile posture towards its neighbors. The internal logic of empires is based on a perception of the outside world that sees only: 1. those that are subjugated, 2. those that still need to be subjugated and 3. those that present an existential threat.
Sadly, the inevitable conclusion is that Russia will continue to attack its neighbors and perceived enemies as long as it is militarily capable and the Russian Federation exists.

Kris

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1794 on: June 04, 2022, 12:40:36 PM »
To understand Putin’s motives for all this, one must understand his adviser, Alexander Dugin, known as “Putin’s brain.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/22/alexander-dugin-author-putin-deady-playbook/

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1795 on: June 04, 2022, 12:47:42 PM »
and those who pined for the glory days of the Soviet Union.  Putin appears to fall squarely into the latter camp.  If that is an accurate reflection of his attitude, this whole war may simply be an attempt to re-establish Russia as a Great Power,
He literally said that. Yes, that's what he wants. Turn back the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century (fall of the USSR) and reunite Big Russia, White Russia and Small Russia to make it a Great Power again.

Pro Tip: If autocrats say they want to do something, they generally mean it. They have no reason to lie (outside a strategic manouver to get something else, but you generally find that out easily. They want you to know after all.)

markbike528CBX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1796 on: June 04, 2022, 04:57:17 PM »
and those who pined for the glory days of the Soviet Union.  Putin appears to fall squarely into the latter camp.  If that is an accurate reflection of his attitude, this whole war may simply be an attempt to re-establish Russia as a Great Power,
He literally said that. Yes, that's what he wants. Turn back the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century (fall of the USSR) and reunite Big Russia, White Russia and Small Russia to make it a Great Power again.

Pro Tip: If autocrats say they want to do something, they generally mean it. They have no reason to lie (outside a strategic manouver to get something else, but you generally find that out easily. They want you to know after all.)

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2014/mar/06/john-bolton/did-vladimir-putin-call-breakup-ussr-greatest-geop/

From the Kremlin:  http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2005/04/25/2031_type70029type82912_87086.shtml

"Above all, we should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century. As for the Russian nation, it became a genuine drama. Tens of millions of our co-citizens and co-patriots found themselves outside Russian territory. Moreover, the epidemic of disintegration infected Russia itself."  -Vladmir Putin -2005

Abe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1797 on: June 04, 2022, 07:35:24 PM »
The most worrying aspect of this war is the apparent lack of strategic aims other than expansion of the number of people and area subjugated to Russia’s dictatorship. Purely politically driven wars are rare, but concerning in that they are often the most brutal as economic functioning of the conquered areas isn’t a primary objective. Examples include the Axis powers during WW2, but even then at least Japan had an economic goal of expanding oil reserves located in subjugated countries. Now Pitin has his equivalent of Tucker blathering on about Poland. Obviously Russia is in no shape to engage in a conventional war with another country. Emphasis on the conventional.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1798 on: June 04, 2022, 08:01:35 PM »

I guess the fact that the population of Russia is falling could be a reason for the war, but even that seems insane.  It is just having more people and land under your control. 

Russia has already deported/kidnapped several hundred thousand people and spread them out across Russia. Ukraine states specifically that this includes 200,000 children. The Russian Duma is on record debating how to turn them into Russians. Russia taking over an area and spreading the original inhabitants all over the place to weaken their identify has been in their playbook for hundreds of years. There's a Ukrainian minority everywhere in Russia due to this happening a century ago. Getting these citizens back will be a big part of any final peace deal, and might lead to enduring sanctions if Russia tries to play dumb on the subject.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1799 on: June 04, 2022, 08:18:20 PM »
I've seen articles questioning how long Ukraine can sustain its rate of losses, which they're probably measuring from the 250k strong army Ukraine had before the war started.  That completely misses the larger picture.

Ukraine has over a million men aged 18-25, and millions more aged 30-39 who are almost certainly willing and able to fight.  It's illegal for them to leave, so I expect most of them are still there.  Russian war crimes make the case for joining, too, since it doesn't matter if you're Ukrainian military or an unarmed civilian - Russia will aim to kill either, indescriminately.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Ukraine_population_pyramid_1.1.2021.png

 

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