RE Tesla semi hurdles:
WEIGHT:Musk is shooting for a 500kwh battery pack and range of 300 miles at first. Possibly larger battery with longer range later:
https://insideevs.com/news/487795/tesla-semi-500-kwh-battery-pack/The Model 3 long range has an 82kwh pack that weighs 1060lbs. Scaling that up to 500kwh would give the Tesla Semi a battery weight of 6463lbs. Add to that the weight of multiple, large electric motors as well. So the BEV powertrain in the Tesla truck is almost certainly over 7000lbs, and probably closer to 8k by the time inverters and cooling and things are added.
A modern 15L diesel engine weighs about 3k lbs. The transmission, fuel tanks and exhaust systems add another 2k or so. Lets round up to 6k lbs when the larger cooling system and all of the small things are included to get the truck moving down the road. So, Tesla Semi has a disadvantage around 1-2k lbs to a modern diesel powertrain.
I haven't followed up on their claims, but Tesla is saying that the US has agreed to raise the 80k gross limit to 82k for BEV trucks, and they're claiming that exemption puts them equal to a diesel for max payload:
https://electrek.co/2021/08/13/tesla-semi-electric-truck-weight-on-point-crucial/So, that more or less aligns with my estimate for powertrain weights, and means that weight may not be such a big deal for the Tesla Semi. Particularly if other aspects of the truck can be designed to weigh less.
CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURETesla's Supercharger network is the best in the business. But even their fastest V3 Superchargers aren't going to charge a 500+kwh battery with any urgency. The MEGASUPERDUPERULTRAcharger that Tesla is supposedly working on doesn't actually exist in public yet. It might one day, but they'll need to be built and supported nationwide if Tesla Semi is to ever be viable as a long range hauler. Trucking companies will likely want to have these chargers on their premises so they can ensure that their trucks have full batteries when they leave. This will be expensive. Likely 6 figures per MEGASUPERDUPERULTRAcharger, and if you have more than a handful of trucks, you'll probably want more than one. Once on the road, these MEGASUPERDUPERULTRAcharger stations will need to be designed in a way that can fit Semis and allow them to "pull through". The layout of the current Supercharger network is a struggle that requires compromises with a regular car or truck pulling a small trailer. It's just not feasible at all with something the size of a semi. So, this charging network will need to be all new, it's going to be more expensive than the existing Supercharger network, and it's going to more or less require private businesses like trucking companies and truck stops to invest bunches of money into their own facilities as well.
RANGE/CHARGE TIME:
While weight is critical in trucking, (and the Tesla Semi may not be at much or any disadvantage there) the larger issue with the Tesla Semi is the 300 mile range at that weight. That's only 5 hrs of freight movement at a time if the estimated range is actually right. But that also means you need to have access to a charger at each end of the 300 mile range, and that charger has to be huge and fast (MEGASUPERDUPERULTRAcharger) or the truck is losing time and money compared to a diesel that can go 2k miles when filled up (300gal @ 7mpg). Some of the new trucks are close to 10mpg which extends that range even further. Anyway, the point is that trucks only make money when they're moving freight and a 300 mile range is a huge hindrance for anything but local deliveries/port drayage/etc from the jump. Add to that the fact that range drops in colder weather, and the nearest MEGASUPERDUPERULTRAcharger may not be exactly 300 miles away from the last one, and the effective range is shortened even further. Then consider that Tesla's EVs often struggle to hit their rated range in real world driving conditions, and the picture gets even more bleak. (Sure, a larger battery would add range, but that would increase charging times and simultaneously take away payload capacity as well, meaning more trucks needed to move the same amount of freight). What is a rated 300 mile range may end up being under 200 miles in certain duty cycles and environments.
SERVICE/SUPPORTAs I already noted, trucks only make money for their owners when they're moving freight. Things break on the road. Sometimes it's mechanical stuff, and other times it's due to external factors like hitting a deer or something (To remain legal, all lights and indicators must be functional, etc). There currently exists a nationwide network of parts/service centers for diesel trucks. These businesses are employed by people that are very used to working on existing platforms. The entire idea is to get the trucks back on the road and making money ASAP. Tesla has no such network at the moment. That means an issue that might potentially delay a diesel truck a few hours could delay a Tesla Semi by much longer. Fleets make purchase decisions based on the amount of "uptime" a truck has, so supporting the product quickly is critical. Having to wait for parts and or service longer than they would for a diesel would absolutely kill the deal for lots of fleets.
LIFESPAN/LONGEVITYA diesel engine in a semi typically goes 500k or more between overhauls. The trucks themselves often see over 1 million miles in their usable life spans. A battery electric powertrain
should last longer, but if you're constantly using a MEGASUPERDUPERULTRAcharger to get back on the road ASAP that might shorten the battery life.
If the trucks themselves fall apart before 1 million miles because they're designed in a way that cut out weight in critical places or something then that's a big deal too. The truck chassis can't fall apart and need to be replaced at 300k miles or we're just making throwaway trucks.
Since these things are giant rolling computers, they'll need to have their software supported for a decade or more. Situations where the electronic hardware (chips, etc) is at the end of it's life will need to be considered. Tesla already had an issue with this in their MCU fiasco. Proper design and/or proper specification of components that can handle several hundred thousand miles of use before they need replacement will be critical. If you're going to spec cheaper stuff, then it has to be serviceable.
COMPETITIONSeveral truck manufacturers (Diamler, Volvo, Cummins, etc) have EV trucks in final development or even in customer hands on a trial basis. These companies have established reputations, they understand their customers and their needs very well, and they already have the necessary support networks in place. Tesla isn't catching commercial OEMs flat footed like they did in the passenger car market.
INTERIOR LAYOUTHere's a render of the interior of the Tesla Semi:
If it ends up looking like that, the obvious things that are missing include a passenger seat, and a place to sleep. Lots of modern trucks are driven by a team of drivers so they can legally keep moving for more hours per day. That takes more than a single seat. Any long range truck also needs a place for the driver to sleep, regardless of whether it's being operated by a single person or a team.
SUMMARYMaking it a single person "day cab", with max of 300 miles of range limits the truck to very short usage scenarios. Those are an important role, but it's not going to take over the trucking industry. A lot of those jobs could be done right now by an EV truck, and there is already competition in those markets from established players, so Tesla has no "first mover" advantage here. Plus there will need to be pretty significant investment from Tesla and/or customers into charging infrastructure as well as parts/service support to make them viable, even for short range work.
Topic: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States? (Read 810706 times)
