Author Topic: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?  (Read 523584 times)

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2250 on: July 27, 2022, 03:44:58 PM »
I like that new buildouts in Denver are much more focused on local businesses, increased density, and higher walkability.  It's enough that I've been able to convert my own life to having 90% of everything I need within walking distance.  And since I work from home 100% of the time, my need to use my car has dropped precipitously.  It's healthier and (more importantly) cheaper.

The car should last a lot longer too.

LennStar

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2251 on: July 28, 2022, 02:21:15 AM »
I'm well aware, as you might gather if read some of my other posts in this thread.  However, we have to deal with the world as it is and hopefully come up with pragmatic solutions that can actually make the future better.

Saying cars very existence is the problem is a not remotely a workable solution. It's about 10 bridges too far for the normal person who balks at the very prospect of a bike lane or the horrors of public transit.
Cars isn't a remotely workable solution. And people already know that, they are complaining about traffic all the time. Putting solar on a car does not make traffic go away. There is nothing pragmatic about going for a "solution" where you already know it's not working.
Paris has doubled the amount of trips taken by bike in 2 years. In most US cities that would require just 5 people biking, sounds managable.
Sarcasm aside, as in many cases the solution is easy, people just can't or don't want to see it. But it is already done in other places, so it's like you have to figure out Columbus' egg or the gordian knot on yourself.


GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2252 on: July 28, 2022, 07:21:56 AM »
I'm well aware, as you might gather if read some of my other posts in this thread.  However, we have to deal with the world as it is and hopefully come up with pragmatic solutions that can actually make the future better.

Saying cars very existence is the problem is a not remotely a workable solution. It's about 10 bridges too far for the normal person who balks at the very prospect of a bike lane or the horrors of public transit.
Cars isn't a remotely workable solution. And people already know that, they are complaining about traffic all the time. Putting solar on a car does not make traffic go away. There is nothing pragmatic about going for a "solution" where you already know it's not working.
Paris has doubled the amount of trips taken by bike in 2 years. In most US cities that would require just 5 people biking, sounds managable.
Sarcasm aside, as in many cases the solution is easy, people just can't or don't want to see it. But it is already done in other places, so it's like you have to figure out Columbus' egg or the gordian knot on yourself.

The solution is simple.  Not easy.

It's easier to hop in a car and go where you want.  No sweat, no planning, no figuring out train schedules, no filthy public transit, no crazy people, no close to crippling instances because a driver ignored your right of way (In a car you're likely going to be fine when another car hits you, not so on a bike or foot).  People will support better transit options when they're better.  But here in North America we won't make transit options better until people support them.  That's our conundrum.

RWD

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Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2254 on: July 28, 2022, 09:55:16 AM »
Maybe you'd feel differently if your EV had solar panels? (too bad this is unlikely to ever be sold in the US...)

Solar panels on your house plus a bi-directional charging capable EV could handle extended power outages pretty well, I think.

That's amazing.

I'll take the beige one in this link. They are small. Like 1960s VW bus small i.e. similar footprint to the original Beetle. Plenty of flat roof space on the van version to incorporate a solar array. I'd rather have solar on my house and drive this trucklet to town when I need to for errands. Can't walk to town (~8 miles). I do ebike to town some. It would look like a toy parked next to a F250 4WD but I don't care. A JDM kei trucklet is too small for my needs. There is one running around town here. 

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2255 on: July 28, 2022, 09:55:43 AM »
Update on Federal tax credit reform
https://electrek.co/2022/07/27/senate-moves-forward-ev-tax-credit-reform-tesla-tsla/

Good. It made no sense to eliminate the early, largely US manufacturers due to their early success.

AccidentialMustache

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2256 on: July 28, 2022, 11:03:17 AM »
I'm not a fan of the price limits. Not because I think we should subsidize luxury cars, but because the manufacturers will play games to get under that price and then sell the software-limited unlocks later as either an up-charge or worse as a subscription, and we don't need any more of that rent-seeking corporate bullshit. I'd rather subsidize a few model x's rather than encourage that stupidity.

Syonyk

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2257 on: July 28, 2022, 01:20:39 PM »
*sigh*

Plz 2 facepunch.

The new credit almost makes looking at a new EV interesting, though I should probably wait the 7-8 years until our first kid is driving, and no new cars are available at any cost.

But buying a new car, even with all the incentives, just feels dumb.  And the used market is insane, so... *shrug*  Volt should last another half million miles, right?

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2258 on: July 28, 2022, 01:22:10 PM »
*sigh*

Plz 2 facepunch.

The new credit almost makes looking at a new EV interesting, though I should probably wait the 7-8 years until our first kid is driving, and no new cars are available at any cost.

But buying a new car, even with all the incentives, just feels dumb.  And the used market is insane, so... *shrug*  Volt should last another half million miles, right?
Hard to say - the car market is bonkers right now, and with the increasing demand for EVs coupled with supply chain woes, I'm not sure it'll get better anytime soon.  I will be selling my 2020 Model 3 soon and fully expect to get more back than I paid for it new.

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2259 on: July 28, 2022, 01:28:53 PM »
*sigh*

Plz 2 facepunch.

The new credit almost makes looking at a new EV interesting, though I should probably wait the 7-8 years until our first kid is driving, and no new cars are available at any cost.

But buying a new car, even with all the incentives, just feels dumb.  And the used market is insane, so... *shrug*  Volt should last another half million miles, right?

Yeah, I keep face-punching myself for ordering a new car, but with the incentives and the insane used market I'd pay **more** for a 3 year old EV than I would for one that was brand new and under warranty. 
Sadly our existing car utterly failed inspection (20+ years, rust, more rust, and then rust on top of rust).


Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2260 on: July 28, 2022, 01:42:57 PM »
But buying a new car, even with all the incentives, just feels dumb.  And the used market is insane, so... *shrug*  Volt should last another half million miles, right?

That's our approach. I just can't get enthusiastic about dropping that much money on a depreciating asset right now when we can drive our already fully depreciated daily driver for "nothing".

Not criticizing anyone's difference choice. Just stating how I feel about my options.

Syonyk

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2261 on: July 28, 2022, 01:58:25 PM »
Hard to say - the car market is bonkers right now, and with the increasing demand for EVs coupled with supply chain woes, I'm not sure it'll get better anytime soon.  I will be selling my 2020 Model 3 soon and fully expect to get more back than I paid for it new.

Supposedly the market is improving... but who knows.  Supply chains still suck, and show no real signs of improving.  Our Volt is still working fine, under 100k miles, but the battery has definitely degraded some - seeing ~9.3kWh out of it vs the stock 10.5, and while it's entirely fine for our needs, we have been trying to do a few more longer trips, which use quite a bit of gas.  At current prices, that's... not cheap, really.  Though neither is a $100k car.  You know, $40k, plus $60k dealer incentives, tax, title, dock fees, screw you fees, and because we can fees.

Yeah, I keep face-punching myself for ordering a new car, but with the incentives and the insane used market I'd pay **more** for a 3 year old EV than I would for one that was brand new and under warranty.

Sound right. :/

Quote
Sadly our existing car utterly failed inspection (20+ years, rust, more rust, and then rust on top of rust).

Huh.  That's one nice thing out here, no rust.  My youngest vehicle is 9 years old, oldest of the "regularly driven vehicles" is 25.  For limited values of regular.  Other stuff is older.

========

On the other hand, all the new EVs are full in, doubled down on all the cell connection, all the time, big data analytics, ship it broken and patch it later.  Does anyone even sell a car without a cell modem streaming all your driving data up to "various partners"?

RWD

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2262 on: July 28, 2022, 02:06:19 PM »
The new credit almost makes looking at a new EV interesting
The reform is supposed to add a $4k credit for purchasing a used EV. Though with how used car prices are right now I'm not sure if that's even going to be cheaper than a new car...

Syonyk

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2263 on: July 28, 2022, 02:08:47 PM »
The reform is supposed to add a $4k credit for purchasing a used EV. Though with how used car prices are right now I'm not sure if that's even going to be cheaper than a new car...

And, silently, without a word, every dealer price for used EVs magically jumps $4k overnight as soon as that goes into effect (since it doesn't apply to private party sales).

Just like the solar tax credit could have been done more efficiently as a raw handout to solar installers.  Same net effect.

BDWW

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2264 on: July 28, 2022, 03:20:13 PM »

On the other hand, all the new EVs are full in, doubled down on all the cell connection, all the time, big data analytics, ship it broken and patch it later.  Does anyone even sell a car without a cell modem streaming all your driving data up to "various partners"?

Part of that ties into how highly regulated the market is. It's virtually impossible to enter the car market as a new player because of the extensive regulations. (Tesla being the obvious exception).   By the time you conform to all the safety regulations*, you might as sell the data because you're 90% there with all the computer controls you've had to implement. 

*Not meant as a value judgment on them, just on observation of the reality.

Syonyk

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2265 on: July 28, 2022, 03:55:46 PM »
By the time you conform to all the safety regulations*, you might as sell the data because you're 90% there with all the computer controls you've had to implement. 

You might as well offer it as an option... hell, I'll pay you $500 extra to not sell a lifetime of data from a car.

I'm concluding that I'll never be able to buy another car, though.  Every single damned one of them does this and they just keep getting worse.  I've probably got a decade before I have to figure out how to rebuild a Volt battery pack with machining my own cooling plates and such... probably a $100k project, maybe more.  To get a car that doesn't sell my behavioral data upstream.  I like running EVs, but I also recognize they don't have an infinite lifespan like a gasser does.

I suppose I can look into removing the cell modem from the cars too, but I assume they're only twice as annoying as your typical heater core to replace.

LennStar

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2266 on: July 29, 2022, 06:27:09 AM »
I like running EVs, but I also recognize they don't have an infinite lifespan like a gasser does.
Actually EVs have a longer lifespan than gassers. Their battery might not have as long a lofe span as the gas motor is the only (and heaviest) point. The thought was that by the time you need a new one, they would be cheaper and more powerful at the same time.
Not that wrong theoretically, just.... let's say I will certainly HODL my lithium mine stocks for a few more years.

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2267 on: July 29, 2022, 08:24:37 AM »
The new credit almost makes looking at a new EV interesting
The reform is supposed to add a $4k credit for purchasing a used EV. Though with how used car prices are right now I'm not sure if that's even going to be cheaper than a new car...

There is a $25k price cap and only one credit per VIN.  It's going to be really messy trying to figure out what is covered and what isn't.

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2268 on: July 29, 2022, 08:38:25 AM »
I suppose I can look into removing the cell modem from the cars too, but I assume they're only twice as annoying as your typical heater core to replace.

Not necessarily. I saw on the web that the next older generation of our "good car" had a battery drain issue traced to the cell modem. The fix is to simply unplug it. It is located in the base of the center console and apparently easy to access. The 2G or 3G networks that our car relied on were shutdown and indeed the network icon on the touch screen has gone dark. I have considered unplugging the modem in our car but not made the effort.

Seriously just want an EV similar to our late-90s car. Motor, heat/air, radio, knobs. Back when advanced tech was power windows, airbags and ABS.

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2269 on: July 29, 2022, 08:49:56 AM »
I suppose I can look into removing the cell modem from the cars too, but I assume they're only twice as annoying as your typical heater core to replace.

Not necessarily. I saw on the web that the next older generation of our "good car" had a battery drain issue traced to the cell modem. The fix is to simply unplug it. It is located in the base of the center console and apparently easy to access. The 2G or 3G networks that our car relied on were shutdown and indeed the network icon on the touch screen has gone dark. I have considered unplugging the modem in our car but not made the effort.

Seriously just want an EV similar to our late-90s car. Motor, heat/air, radio, knobs. Back when advanced tech was power windows, airbags and ABS.

You could always do a conversion! https://www.evwest.com/catalog/index.php?cPath=40?osCsid=7a8772fc0d29fec907ded75e10f1923f

LennStar

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2270 on: July 29, 2022, 10:01:45 AM »
The new credit almost makes looking at a new EV interesting
The reform is supposed to add a $4k credit for purchasing a used EV. Though with how used car prices are right now I'm not sure if that's even going to be cheaper than a new car...

There is a $25k price cap and only one credit per VIN.  It's going to be really messy trying to figure out what is covered and what isn't.
Oh yes! Kei-car sized. All you need as a single/pair.
But that would be bad for the companies' profit, so they wont build that car. I wonder if BYD will do that, their market is more downwards open. They just need to sell in countries outside China lol.

Telecaster

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2271 on: July 29, 2022, 11:52:11 AM »
I would dearly love to get an Ioniq 5 except that its a 6 month wait (apart from the fact that I drive less than 1000 miles a month and spend barely anything on gas).
By then Lithium will be in very short supply. Don't put you hopes up.

There may be substantial domestic (US) lithium production coming on line fairly soon:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/the-salton-sea-could-produce-the-worlds-greenest-lithium.html

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2272 on: July 29, 2022, 01:22:37 PM »
I would dearly love to get an Ioniq 5 except that its a 6 month wait (apart from the fact that I drive less than 1000 miles a month and spend barely anything on gas).
By then Lithium will be in very short supply. Don't put you hopes up.

There may be substantial domestic (US) lithium production coming on line fairly soon:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/the-salton-sea-could-produce-the-worlds-greenest-lithium.html

From what I've been reading, the supply of lithium is primarily about cost.  There's not a shortage per se, just a shortage of cheaply available lithium ore. If/when the price increases 2x-3x additional sources like extracting from hyper-saline environments, the ocean and lower density mines become economically viable options.
Sucks when you're talking about cordless power tools where the battery pack can be >50% of the cost, but far easier for a vehicle when the battery pack is closer to 10% of the manufacturing cost.

LennStar

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2273 on: July 30, 2022, 07:42:44 AM »
I would dearly love to get an Ioniq 5 except that its a 6 month wait (apart from the fact that I drive less than 1000 miles a month and spend barely anything on gas).
By then Lithium will be in very short supply. Don't put you hopes up.

There may be substantial domestic (US) lithium production coming on line fairly soon:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/the-salton-sea-could-produce-the-worlds-greenest-lithium.html
If you believe the sudies of e.g. Morgan Stanley, then demand will outpace supply  in this decade even if you take all planned production capacities. And it takes years to build one. Also the Lithium price ist still about 3 times higher than it was at the last peak 5 years ago.

So if were only about cost, everyone should scramble to get new production up, but I don't hear much about that.

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2274 on: July 30, 2022, 08:33:38 AM »

So if were only about cost, everyone should scramble to get new production up, but I don't hear much about that.

Maybe it's different in western Europe, but here in N. America there's a tremendous scramble to ramp production, both in the US and in Canada. Estimates I'm seeing has domestic (US) production forecast to increase 300% in the next eight years.  China and Canada are massively increasing their capacity as well.
In the early 2000s Australia produced roughly 30% of the global supply, with virtually zero coming from N. America. We may reach parity in production by the end of this decade, even as Australia continues to ramp up production as well.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2275 on: July 30, 2022, 08:57:54 AM »

So if were only about cost, everyone should scramble to get new production up, but I don't hear much about that.

Maybe it's different in western Europe, but here in N. America there's a tremendous scramble to ramp production, both in the US and in Canada. Estimates I'm seeing has domestic (US) production forecast to increase 300% in the next eight years.  China and Canada are massively increasing their capacity as well.
In the early 2000s Australia produced roughly 30% of the global supply, with virtually zero coming from N. America. We may reach parity in production by the end of this decade, even as Australia continues to ramp up production as well.

Ford alone is aiming to go from producing under 100k EVs per year in 2021, to a rate of 600k per year by the end of 2023:

https://techcrunch.com/2021/12/10/ford-triple-production-capacity-electric-mustang-mach-e/

They're also laying off 8k workers in the ICE arm of the business to advance the EV arm:

https://news.yahoo.com/ford-plans-lay-off-8-230054227.html
« Last Edit: July 30, 2022, 09:33:39 AM by Paper Chaser »

LennStar

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2276 on: July 31, 2022, 03:20:52 AM »
Yeah, that's the point. 300% of a small regional amount is not much if you suppose a 5-fold increase in global demand at a minimum.


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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2277 on: July 31, 2022, 05:05:07 AM »
Yeah, that's the point. 300% of a small regional amount is not much if you suppose a 5-fold increase in global demand at a minimum.

You said you weren’t hearing about a scramble to get production up. I pointed out how that’s not the case.  It’s not a “small regional amount” - it’s across the board

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2278 on: July 31, 2022, 07:43:47 PM »
Actually EVs have a longer lifespan than gassers. Their battery might not have as long a lofe span as the gas motor is the only (and heaviest) point.

I have an 80 year old tractor and a 90 year old car.  I disagree with you.  The oldest EVs we have are now approaching "average age for the fleet."  The packs are holding up OK for 10 years, but there's basically no modern battery chemistry that will last 50 years of regular service - period.  The only one we have that's even close is nickel iron, which is long lived, and... well, that's really about the only good thing to say about it.  It's horridly inefficient, which means it guzzles water like you wouldn't believe, it tends to poison from atmospheric CO2, and the per-cell voltage is annoyingly low.

None of the lithium chemistries will last that long even if unused, much less cycling.  They have a cycle life as well as a calendar life, and while you can trade between the two, they're not indefinite chemistries.  Practical lifespan, even with ideal thermal management, is in the 20 year range.

Unfortunately, it's not just the batteries.  Power electronics, even solid state ones, have a finite lifespan as well - they degrade during use from electron migration, and we're seeing this on the early Tesla Roadsters already - there are companies that, at rather great cost, are rebuilding the power controller boards.  Of course, nobody designs them to be rebuilt... 

The battery packs are, also, unfortunately "difficult to impossible" to rebuild in most cases.  You can't get cells for most of the EV packs after their production lifespan, and even the newer cells tend to be different enough from the older cells in physical form factor that you can't just swap stuff out.  The best you can do is rebuilding packs out of "less used cells," which is fine for a while, but you end up with your same calendar life issues.

Quote
The thought was that by the time you need a new one, they would be cheaper and more powerful at the same time.

Packs, or the whole car?

If the first, nobody is doing that.

If the second... scrapping cars every 15 years isn't exactly the most environmentally friendly thing to be doing, much less the cost for everyone who isn't loaded.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2279 on: August 01, 2022, 05:46:32 AM »
Haven't checked in on the Edmonds Real World EV range leaderboard for awhile but they've been busy adding new EVs as they're tested. We see the trend of mature auto companies outperforming rated range continues (some pretty significantly), while the upstart EV makers are typically still falling a bit short of rated range. But range anxiety seems to be less and less of an issue as we get more and more options near or above 300 miles:

https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-consumption-epa-vs-edmunds.html

Tyson

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2280 on: August 01, 2022, 09:41:09 AM »
Battery packs are already starting to get to 500k miles, and 1M miles is on the near horizon. 

That, plus the fact that nearly 100% of the chemicals can be recycled and the recycled batteries can be made to very close to 100% capacity of a brand new battery, means that in the long term, EV's are very green. 

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2281 on: August 01, 2022, 09:50:28 AM »
Battery packs are already starting to get to 500k miles, and 1M miles is on the near horizon. 

Don't confuse cycle life and calendar life.  All those range numbers involve rapid cycling of packs, so they flow that amount of energy without the calendar life impacts being significant.  It's great if you're doing a taxi service, but not as useful for standard end user vehicles.

At 3mi/kWh, a 100kWh pack is good for 333 miles, so 100k miles is only 300 cycles on the pack (with the standard lithium definition of a cycle being the use of the full capacity, if you short stroke it in the center it works out to a bit less physical damage, but... handwaves are fine here).  So 500k miles is only 1500 cycles on the pack, which is not that hard on a modern chemistry... if you're doing it in a short period of time.  If you drive 50k miles a year, it's not a big deal, but at 12k miles/yr (standard American driving), 500k miles is 40 years, and I'm not aware of any lithium chemistry that will hold up for 40 years, used or not.

Also, nobody builds car interiors that last for 500k miles.  How many 250k mile beaters have you owned?  I've had a lot, and the interiors are... not in good shape.

Quote
That, plus the fact that nearly 100% of the chemicals can be recycled and the recycled batteries can be made to very close to 100% capacity of a brand new battery, means that in the long term, EV's are very green.

These are the claims made, yes, though actual execution on them seems to be somewhat far behind.

But if you're having to scrap the entire car because nobody is making a compatible replacement pack for a 2017 Bolt, that the pack recycling is green doesn't solve the problem that you're scrapping cars early, just because it's more profitable to build newer ones than to continue building new packs for older cars.

Tyson

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2282 on: August 01, 2022, 09:58:26 AM »
You seem to want churn of old cars to new cars to stop, that's just not going to happen. 

Having a car with a battery that will outlast the rest of the car, and then is highly recyclable (and the recycling businesses are already kicking things off, see Redwood Materials), that's about as good as it's going to get. 

I mean, EV's are clearly WAY better than the old ICE cars, and we as a society are moving toward them.  That's a good thing.  But for some reason you seem bent on criticizing EV's because they aren't perfect. 

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2283 on: August 01, 2022, 10:14:04 AM »
You seem to want churn of old cars to new cars to stop, that's just not going to happen.

No, I want cars built to be repairable, and that includes things like battery packs.  "Gluing together entirely custom cells you can't get anywhere else" (as Tesla is doing in their new packs) is the opposite of this approach, and leads to scrapping cars because the pack has lost capacity, and you can't get a replacement, and you can't build a replacement because it's all based around proprietary technology.

I would like car companies to consider more than the first 5 years of a car's life.  I've owned many cars over the years where this was the case, and the car was designed to be maintained.  The EA82 Subarus I owned several of were easily my favorite in this realm - every time I had to do something, it felt as though the engineers had pondered that this might have to be done at some point, and the task was "as not-annoying as possible."  The engines were non-interference, the fuel pump was on a skid plate in front of the tank instead of in the tank, fuel filter was on the firewall in easy reach, and the engine bay had room to work.  Oil filters were positioned to drain straight down (sideways filter with nothing under it), so you had very real "no mess" oil changes.  Compare with things like Chevy Cavaliers of the era that had oil filters on the back of the engine, with no way to remove them that didn't drench the flex coupling in the exhaust pipe with oil...

But I'm mostly pointing out the absurdity of claiming a battery pack will outlast a gas engine.

I rebuilt ebike battery packs professionally for several years.  I'm familiar with the issues, and "going to unmaintainable stuff that can't be rebuilt," as BionX did before going out of business, absolutely creates more waste than a pack that can be easily rebuilt with no heroics required.  Their late 48V packs were unreliable trash compared to the older 37V ones, and it showed in how often they failed and how often people would scrap the rest of the parts out because you could no longer get a pack.  They were actually more repairable on paper (modular connections instead of soldered), but BionX wouldn't sell parts, and wouldn't provide the software to reset the BMS, so you ended up with a lot of dead packs that were entirely dead, because the BMS latched the failure condition and self-bricked.  Even a new bank of cells wouldn't recover it.

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Having a car with a battery that will outlast the rest of the car, and then is highly recyclable (and the recycling businesses are already kicking things off, see Redwood Materials), that's about as good as it's going to get.

Having a car with a battery pack that can be rebuilt, with the rest of the car also being able to be rebuilt and maintained, is better than your proposed solution.  But all the auto makers are using EVs as an excuse to build throwaway cellphone-like cars that get three software updates, changing the UI for no good reason, and then tell you that they're out of date and you should just buy a new one.  It's worse for the planet, and worse for owners, than a maintainable solution, in every way.

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But for some reason you seem bent on criticizing EV's because they aren't perfect.

See above.  I like EVs, I drive a Volt, I've rebuilt ebike battery packs, I'm working to help a variety of people with local solar installs, but I have found, in every aspect of life, that "repairable" options are better than "glued together proprietary" options, and too many of the modern EVs are rushing to the second option, because something that can be repaired is likely to live a longer service life.  Then, of course, they shove cell modems in and turn them into giant behavioral data extraction machines on wheels, which I also object in the strongest possible terms to.  My car should not be sending data about my driving behavior upstream to be sold to "partners" who will then use it to try and influence my political and purchasing behaviors.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2284 on: August 01, 2022, 10:21:43 AM »
Polestar at least is embracing Right to Repair:
https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/25/the-newest-polestar-2-is-more-appealing-affordable-and-repairable/
Quote
The stacked packs in the [Polestar 2] can be individually replaced as parts fail. Parker said that if one component fails, the company collects that material back to form a closed-loop system. “We’re exploring remanufacturing and reusing those components that come back,” he said. Polestar also offers complete repair instruction and access to a catalog of parts that owners can purchase directly from the company itself, too.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2285 on: August 01, 2022, 11:07:34 AM »
You seem to want churn of old cars to new cars to stop, that's just not going to happen.

No, I want cars built to be repairable, and that includes things like battery packs.  "Gluing together entirely custom cells you can't get anywhere else" (as Tesla is doing in their new packs) is the opposite of this approach, and leads to scrapping cars because the pack has lost capacity, and you can't get a replacement, and you can't build a replacement because it's all based around proprietary technology.

I would like car companies to consider more than the first 5 years of a car's life.  I've owned many cars over the years where this was the case, and the car was designed to be maintained.  The EA82 Subarus I owned several of were easily my favorite in this realm - every time I had to do something, it felt as though the engineers had pondered that this might have to be done at some point, and the task was "as not-annoying as possible."  The engines were non-interference, the fuel pump was on a skid plate in front of the tank instead of in the tank, fuel filter was on the firewall in easy reach, and the engine bay had room to work.  Oil filters were positioned to drain straight down (sideways filter with nothing under it), so you had very real "no mess" oil changes.  Compare with things like Chevy Cavaliers of the era that had oil filters on the back of the engine, with no way to remove them that didn't drench the flex coupling in the exhaust pipe with oil...

But I'm mostly pointing out the absurdity of claiming a battery pack will outlast a gas engine.

I rebuilt ebike battery packs professionally for several years.  I'm familiar with the issues, and "going to unmaintainable stuff that can't be rebuilt," as BionX did before going out of business, absolutely creates more waste than a pack that can be easily rebuilt with no heroics required.  Their late 48V packs were unreliable trash compared to the older 37V ones, and it showed in how often they failed and how often people would scrap the rest of the parts out because you could no longer get a pack.  They were actually more repairable on paper (modular connections instead of soldered), but BionX wouldn't sell parts, and wouldn't provide the software to reset the BMS, so you ended up with a lot of dead packs that were entirely dead, because the BMS latched the failure condition and self-bricked.  Even a new bank of cells wouldn't recover it.

Quote
Having a car with a battery that will outlast the rest of the car, and then is highly recyclable (and the recycling businesses are already kicking things off, see Redwood Materials), that's about as good as it's going to get.

Having a car with a battery pack that can be rebuilt, with the rest of the car also being able to be rebuilt and maintained, is better than your proposed solution.  But all the auto makers are using EVs as an excuse to build throwaway cellphone-like cars that get three software updates, changing the UI for no good reason, and then tell you that they're out of date and you should just buy a new one.  It's worse for the planet, and worse for owners, than a maintainable solution, in every way.

Quote
But for some reason you seem bent on criticizing EV's because they aren't perfect.

See above.  I like EVs, I drive a Volt, I've rebuilt ebike battery packs, I'm working to help a variety of people with local solar installs, but I have found, in every aspect of life, that "repairable" options are better than "glued together proprietary" options, and too many of the modern EVs are rushing to the second option, because something that can be repaired is likely to live a longer service life.  Then, of course, they shove cell modems in and turn them into giant behavioral data extraction machines on wheels, which I also object in the strongest possible terms to.  My car should not be sending data about my driving behavior upstream to be sold to "partners" who will then use it to try and influence my political and purchasing behaviors.

Thanks Guy - There's too much of this planned obsolescence stuff out there already.  My dad made a living fixing radios and TVs. After a while the manufacturers made both the information and parts proprietary.  I don't own an electric car, but will remember your comment in years to come when I purchase one.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2286 on: August 01, 2022, 11:32:51 AM »
See above.  I like EVs, I drive a Volt, I've rebuilt ebike battery packs, I'm working to help a variety of people with local solar installs, but I have found, in every aspect of life, that "repairable" options are better than "glued together proprietary" options, and too many of the modern EVs are rushing to the second option, because something that can be repaired is likely to live a longer service life.  Then, of course, they shove cell modems in and turn them into giant behavioral data extraction machines on wheels, which I also object in the strongest possible terms to.  My car should not be sending data about my driving behavior upstream to be sold to "partners" who will then use it to try and influence my political and purchasing behaviors.

Yeah, I think we're in agreement on this.  It is much better to be able to repair things than just have to throw them away. 

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2287 on: August 01, 2022, 11:53:06 AM »
No, I want cars built to be repairable, and that includes things like battery packs.  "Gluing together entirely custom cells you can't get anywhere else"
No ICE build in the last ~20 years is repairable without spare parts from either the producer or a knock-off. That's part of what comes if you make them better. You just can't file the accuracy you need for an modern engine (as a story from the GDR goes about a western car that was stranded in the communist hell, where the mechanic filed a part "good enough to get home").

Putting that aside I am all in for right to repair etc.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2288 on: August 01, 2022, 12:16:12 PM »
No ICE build in the last ~20 years is repairable without spare parts from either the producer or a knock-off. That's part of what comes if you make them better. You just can't file the accuracy you need for an modern engine (as a story from the GDR goes about a western car that was stranded in the communist hell, where the mechanic filed a part "good enough to get home").

Yet... those parts exist, either through the OEM, or via aftermarket suppliers, and the aftermarket often produces better parts than the OEM (at least for specific applications - very few people are building high performance engines out of the OEM rods or pistons, as those are good enough for street use, but don't handle competition stresses nearly as well as the aftermarket options).

EVs seem to have been used, for no reason other than "We can, and figure we'll sell more cars out of it," to transition to everything being digitally locked, manuals being denied to end users, and generally "glued together cellphones" of cars as much as possible.

Again, I rebuilt plenty of BionX battery packs for people.  They were constructed of a fairly standard arrangement of 18650 cells, standard cells, and there was nothing "actively malicious" in the battery management board or control circuitry to make rebuilding them hard.  Melt the solder to remove the old pack, put a new one in, and it just worked.  The BMS didn't latch the loss of voltage and self-brick, and there wasn't any software needed to fix them.

The newer, 48V packs?  In addition to having a super-fragile BMS that frequently failed (and then killed the cells by draining them), it would latch a voltage loss event and refuse to function again, and the software that might have been able to reset them wasn't available.  As a result, they were far harder to rebuild, and when they failed (the 37V packs had the occasional weird failure but it was rare, the 48V packs almost always failed shortly out of warranty), you couldn't do anything about it.

I don't want to see that in EVs, but that's sure the path everyone seems super excited about, both OEMs and buyers.  And I simply attempt to reflect the voice of "But we've tried this, and it was terrible, so let's not do it again."  I recognize most people haven't rebuilt ebike packs (I was the sole supplier for North America for a few years, it's rather niche), but I've seen all this before.  And it doesn't end well for the environment or consumers.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2289 on: August 01, 2022, 12:27:52 PM »
No, I want cars built to be repairable, and that includes things like battery packs.  "Gluing together entirely custom cells you can't get anywhere else"
No ICE build in the last ~20 years is repairable without spare parts from either the producer or a knock-off. That's part of what comes if you make them better. You just can't file the accuracy you need for an modern engine (as a story from the GDR goes about a western car that was stranded in the communist hell, where the mechanic filed a part "good enough to get home").

Putting that aside I am all in for right to repair etc.

Part of why I sold my 1991 Toyota MR2 was because I couldn't buy certain parts anymore - finding used parts gets tough when they're all 20+ years old.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2290 on: August 01, 2022, 12:38:53 PM »
No, I want cars built to be repairable, and that includes things like battery packs.  "Gluing together entirely custom cells you can't get anywhere else"
No ICE build in the last ~20 years is repairable without spare parts from either the producer or a knock-off. That's part of what comes if you make them better. You just can't file the accuracy you need for an modern engine (as a story from the GDR goes about a western car that was stranded in the communist hell, where the mechanic filed a part "good enough to get home").

Putting that aside I am all in for right to repair etc.

Part of why I sold my 1991 Toyota MR2 was because I couldn't buy certain parts anymore - finding used parts gets tough when they're all 20+ years old.

I had the same problem with my 1991 Toyota Supra by the time I sold it (almost a decade ago now). One example was my power steering rack was leaking and you couldn't get a new one (rebuilt/used was the only option, if I recall correctly).

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2291 on: August 01, 2022, 12:45:42 PM »
One example was my power steering rack was leaking and you couldn't get a new one (rebuilt/used was the only option, if I recall correctly).

So pull the rack and replace the seals on it.  It looks like both pump and rack seal kits for that year are easily obtained.  That's usually all a "rebuilt" one is, replace the seals and call it good.  It's not like you have to get a machine shop to fabricate new parts for it if it's leaking (assuming the usual seal wear is the cause).  Though I've also had very good luck over the years with some of the "seal sweller" stop leak stuff in power steering systems that are starting to mark their territory.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2292 on: August 01, 2022, 01:26:35 PM »
See above.  I like EVs, I drive a Volt, I've rebuilt ebike battery packs, I'm working to help a variety of people with local solar installs, but I have found, in every aspect of life, that "repairable" options are better than "glued together proprietary" options, and too many of the modern EVs are rushing to the second option, because something that can be repaired is likely to live a longer service life.  Then, of course, they shove cell modems in and turn them into giant behavioral data extraction machines on wheels, which I also object in the strongest possible terms to.  My car should not be sending data about my driving behavior upstream to be sold to "partners" who will then use it to try and influence my political and purchasing behaviors.

Yeah, I think we're in agreement on this.  It is much better to be able to repair things than just have to throw them away.

Repairing complicated stuff is hard, it takes highly skilled humans, and products evolve so fast it is really hard to gain expertise on repairing things.  Complex products can be built by robots.
There is maybe $25 worth of raw material in a cell phone, and several thousand for a car.  It is much more efficient to melt/crush them down and recycle the resources then fix them. Generally, speaking repaired things aren't as good as new, much less as capable as the new models.  What we need to get better at is recycling the resources, which sadly we aren't doing.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2293 on: August 01, 2022, 01:43:31 PM »
One example was my power steering rack was leaking and you couldn't get a new one (rebuilt/used was the only option, if I recall correctly).

So pull the rack and replace the seals on it.  It looks like both pump and rack seal kits for that year are easily obtained.  That's usually all a "rebuilt" one is, replace the seals and call it good.  It's not like you have to get a machine shop to fabricate new parts for it if it's leaking (assuming the usual seal wear is the cause).  Though I've also had very good luck over the years with some of the "seal sweller" stop leak stuff in power steering systems that are starting to mark their territory.

Sure, in that particular case there was a fine alternate solution. But it is just one example of parts being discontinued. It looks like for the Supra specifically Toyota decided a couple years ago it was important enough to start making parts again (link), which means there were quite a few parts that hadn't been available until just recently. Cars that don't have collector appeal though will be out of luck.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2294 on: August 01, 2022, 01:52:31 PM »
Repairing complicated stuff is hard, it takes highly skilled humans, and products evolve so fast it is really hard to gain expertise on repairing things.

Then maybe we shouldn't be making things quite so complicated?  Especially when that complexity mostly exists for bulk data collection for behavioral modification?

Very little of the complexity in a modern car is related to actually getting around - and when we do pull back the layers of complexity (see the Toyota unintended acceleration case for some source code analysis), we learn that the complexity is horrid, in implementation and function.  And then modern cars have hundreds of millions of lines of code entirely unrelated to the car actually operating, and some of the more famous EV manufacturers just ignore the reasons for automotive grade stuff and have their display consoles overheating and shutting down, or burning out their flash with needless writes...

Of course, this wouldn't matter as much if the companies involved didn't go out of their way to make their stuff impossible for anyone else to repair.  Third party Tesla shops don't exist, because Tesla won't release the software and such required to work on their cars, because... profit, mostly.  Better to scrap the cars and replace them than to have to admit that, no, they really do fall apart in 10 years, or to have to keep large stocks of parts for all 70,000 variants of the piece they've fiddled with during the production runs.

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Complex products can be built by robots.

Great, but when you use a robot to build something that could have been far easier to repair, but isn't, I'm not sure what you're doing except planned obsolescence, which, as we all know, is the greatest thing ever, leading to constant excuses to "have to" replace a perfectly functional thing with a broken display screen, or something.  I mean, you get to buy a new fridge when your display in it stops showing the calendar because it doesn't have a firmware update and the Google endpoint it talks to changes!

(large rolleyes goes here)

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There is maybe $25 worth of raw material in a cell phone, and several thousand for a car.  It is much more efficient to melt/crush them down and recycle the resources then fix them. Generally, speaking repaired things aren't as good as new, much less as capable as the new models.  What we need to get better at is recycling the resources, which sadly we aren't doing.

What are you smoking?  You're on the wrong forum for this crap.  May I suggest www.consumeristsukka.com or something?

First, define "raw materials" cost, because the BOM for most modern cell phones is far north of $25, and the only way you're going to get your number is you ignore all the processing steps and energy involved - are you claiming a modern semiconductor is only the melt value of the sand and trace materials in it?  Because that's nonsense, given the energy inputs alone, but it's the only way I can come up with to justify that number.

And as far as being efficient to crush something, that's also nonsense.  The better option is to make things that can be repaired, not that have to be turned from finished product back into raw materials (which doesn't work for a lot of stuff, plastics don't recycle worth a damn).  And as for "repaired not being as good as new," I further have to disagree, as I tend to repair things to "better than new."  See Maru from Planes 2 for a good reflection of this attitude.

But, I suppose, if you're so invested in spending the money on the new thing that you want excuses to crush the old things, your approach works.  It's just a personal economic disaster and a totally catastrophic environmental disaster, but... yay I can finance a new thing!!!!!

Gross.

Sure, in that particular case there was a fine alternate solution. But it is just one example of parts being discontinued.

Fine, but it wasn't a particularly good example to use, then.  Shaft seals are hardly some exotic technology.

I mean, I've learned not to own "weird cars" as daily drivers, but neither did I have any trouble keeping them operational.  It just sometimes took a local machine shop to do some work and milling.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2295 on: August 01, 2022, 02:38:58 PM »
Well said Synonyk.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2296 on: August 01, 2022, 08:41:21 PM »
Well said Synonyk.

A bit before I bought my Ford, I was looking at a Kia hybrid.  One of the things that impressed me was that they had the repair manual online.  I had to pay for Ford Repair manual on CD.

This isn't the website I saw a few years back, but looks adequate.

https://www.allcarmanuals.com/models-Kia.html

I miss Radio Shack.  Their products were often sold with schematics.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2297 on: August 02, 2022, 12:45:56 AM »
Quote
Seriously just want an EV similar to our late-90s car. Motor, heat/air, radio, knobs. Back when advanced tech was power windows, airbags and ABS.

Get a base spec Nissan Leaf. The only fancy thing in ours is the push button start. No bakup camera, no cellular phoning home, no steering wheel controls, no automated steering or cruise control. Just pure EV goodness with limited range.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2298 on: August 02, 2022, 09:38:23 AM »
Here is a good visualization for how inefficient your electric car is at moving you between physical spaces, compared to, say, an e-bike (remember that half of all vehicle trips in this country are less than three miles):

"Along similar lines, most people don’t understand just how much electricity EVs use, so let me give you an example. Electric car owners today would generally be thrilled to get an efficiency of four miles per kilowatt-hour. Most get less. But if you’re traveling at 65 mph on the highway, that means using 16 kilowatts to travel for one hour. In that same time, a whole-home air conditioner running at full tilt is using something like four kilowatts. So driving on the highway uses, at a bare minimum, as much electricity as running four air conditioners at once. But realistically, most EVs get less than four miles per kwh, and most people drive faster than 65 mph on the highway, so the actual effect is probably more like five or even six air conditioners. " (https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjkkpw/the-manchin-climate-compromise-doubles-down-on-car-culture)
« Last Edit: August 02, 2022, 09:42:10 AM by windytrail »

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2299 on: August 02, 2022, 09:54:17 AM »
Here is a good visualization for how inefficient your electric car is at moving you between physical spaces[...]
Wouldn't an ICE vehicle be something like a dozen air conditioners then?