Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?

[windytrail]

Tesla is introducing a feature called "assertive" style in which self-driving cars will intentionally break traffic laws such as failing to obey stop signs: https://gizmodo.com/teslas-assertive-mode-brings-rolling-stops-to-self-driv-1848331537

Does anyone still think this company is good for society?

Which companies do you think are good for society?

Companies that avoid breaking the law, as well as those who discourage their customers from breaking the law, especially when it concerns laws meant to protect others from physical harm, are better for society than those who do not.

When you are a company who makes products of the type that kill 40,000 people every year in our country alone, you have a heightened duty to ensure that your customers use that product in a safe manner. Any attempts to encourage your customers to use that product illegally amount to criminal conspiracy, or gross negligence at the very least.

[AlanStache]

Maybe Tesla should think outside the box.  There is a shortage of truck drivers.  Tesla has enough money where it could diversify like a lot of company managers do with extra company money.  It could train truck drivers and/or open a trucking company.  Then, when it got it's act together with the electric semis, it would have a captive market with it's own trucking company.

Well, anyway, it's just a thought.  I'm sure if anyone who worked for Musk talked to me I'd get a nasty look and "Who asked you?"

...just following on your thought:  how would Tesla overcome the obstacles that every other trucking company is experiencing right now? What would make them successful where others would fail?

There is not a shortage of licensed truck drivers, there is a shortage of people willing to work in the industry conditions for the typical industry pay.  To lazy to google but saw somewhere that there is something like 3-4 times the number of licensed drivers in Ca than there are people currently employed as a driver.  The typical pay can be ok but the hourly rate is very low; ie lots of unpaid waiting around because drivers are paid by the job not by the hour. 

[Chris22]

The whole “rolling stop” thing is BS, and people who are pro-police reform should see right through it. It’s a technicality used as a pretext to stop people and search for other offenses.

Yes, if you are a pedant, the word “stop” on the stop sign literally means come to a halt. However, anyone with a brain and a driver’s license knows what a stop sign means is actually “pause here and ensure it is safe to proceed.”  Most stop signs should in fact be replaced by yield signs. There was a three-way stop in my wife’s old neighborhood, where you could literally see a quarter mile in all three directions from the intersection. But cops used to love to park themselves in the daycare lot (thus empty and dark after hours) and pull people over for the “crime” of not coming to a complete stop even when they could see there were no cars anywhere near them. (No I never got nabbed). 

Pretending to be outraged by a Tesla doing a rolling stop is ridiculous, a bit of pageantry.  If the car determines (assuming it is capable of determining) that there are no other cars present, proceeding without a full stop is exactly the kind of benefit we should be expecting from automation. Not pretend outrage it doesn’t adhere to silly technicalities.

[GuitarStv]

The whole “rolling stop” thing is BS, and people who are pro-police reform should see right through it. It’s a technicality used as a pretext to stop people and search for other offenses.

Yes, if you are a pedant, the word “stop” on the stop sign literally means come to a halt. However, anyone with a brain and a driver’s license knows what a stop sign means is actually “pause here and ensure it is safe to proceed.”  Most stop signs should in fact be replaced by yield signs. There was a three-way stop in my wife’s old neighborhood, where you could literally see a quarter mile in all three directions from the intersection. But cops used to love to park themselves in the daycare lot (thus empty and dark after hours) and pull people over for the “crime” of not coming to a complete stop even when they could see there were no cars anywhere near them. (No I never got nabbed). 

Pretending to be outraged by a Tesla doing a rolling stop is ridiculous, a bit of pageantry.  If the car determines (assuming it is capable of determining) that there are no other cars present, proceeding without a full stop is exactly the kind of benefit we should be expecting from automation. Not pretend outrage it doesn’t adhere to silly technicalities.

I think I agree with this.  It's certainly possible to roll through the majority of stop signs in a safe manner while riding a bike or driving a car.

[windytrail]

The whole “rolling stop” thing is BS, and people who are pro-police reform should see right through it. It’s a technicality used as a pretext to stop people and search for other offenses.

Yes, if you are a pedant, the word “stop” on the stop sign literally means come to a halt. However, anyone with a brain and a driver’s license knows what a stop sign means is actually “pause here and ensure it is safe to proceed.”  Most stop signs should in fact be replaced by yield signs. There was a three-way stop in my wife’s old neighborhood, where you could literally see a quarter mile in all three directions from the intersection. But cops used to love to park themselves in the daycare lot (thus empty and dark after hours) and pull people over for the “crime” of not coming to a complete stop even when they could see there were no cars anywhere near them. (No I never got nabbed). 

Pretending to be outraged by a Tesla doing a rolling stop is ridiculous, a bit of pageantry.  If the car determines (assuming it is capable of determining) that there are no other cars present, proceeding without a full stop is exactly the kind of benefit we should be expecting from automation. Not pretend outrage it doesn’t adhere to silly technicalities.

This is not pretend outrage, nor pageantry, nor a technicality. As a cyclist and a pedestrian, I regularly encounter close calls with drivers who roll through stop signs and fail to see me approaching. When you come to a complete stop, you are able to pause and fully see your surroundings, including others who may be waiting to cross the road. Eye contact with the driver is helpful, but this is often not possible due to a car's tinted windows, or while walking at night.

The law is there for a reason: to protect the physical safety of others with whom you are sharing the road.

[GodlessCommie]

What's a stop sign in the US is very often a yield sign in Europe. And, IIRC, they have fewer deaths per mile driven, so the case for safety may not be as strong.

I sympathize with cyclists, but it may be correlation, not causation. I.e. someone likely to roll when prohibited is also likely to not notice a cyclist.

[GodlessCommie]

There is not a shortage of licensed truck drivers, there is a shortage of people willing to work in the industry conditions for the typical industry pay.  To lazy to google but saw somewhere that there is something like 3-4 times the number of licensed drivers in Ca than there are people currently employed as a driver.  The typical pay can be ok but the hourly rate is very low; ie lots of unpaid waiting around because drivers are paid by the job not by the hour.

Another aspect is that half of the potential workforce is excluded thanks to dismal personal safety and hostile culture. Apparently, there is success in training and placing female drivers, but retention is nearly impossible.

[pecunia]

Maybe Tesla should think outside the box.  There is a shortage of truck drivers.  Tesla has enough money where it could diversify like a lot of company managers do with extra company money.  It could train truck drivers and/or open a trucking company.  Then, when it got it's act together with the electric semis, it would have a captive market with it's own trucking company.

Well, anyway, it's just a thought.  I'm sure if anyone who worked for Musk talked to me I'd get a nasty look and "Who asked you?"

...just following on your thought:  how would Tesla overcome the obstacles that every other trucking company is experiencing right now? What would make them successful where others would fail?

There is not a shortage of licensed truck drivers, there is a shortage of people willing to work in the industry conditions for the typical industry pay.  To lazy to google but saw somewhere that there is something like 3-4 times the number of licensed drivers in Ca than there are people currently employed as a driver.  The typical pay can be ok but the hourly rate is very low; ie lots of unpaid waiting around because drivers are paid by the job not by the hour.

Paid by the job and your dead time is not paid.  Can this be another example of the marvelous "gig" economy that some have touted as giving workers more freedom? 

.

[nereo]

Tesla is introducing a feature called "assertive" style in which self-driving cars will intentionally break traffic laws such as failing to obey stop signs: https://gizmodo.com/teslas-assertive-mode-brings-rolling-stops-to-self-driv-1848331537

Does anyone still think this company is good for society?

Which companies do you think are good for society?

Companies that avoid breaking the law, as well as those who discourage their customers from breaking the law, especially when it concerns laws meant to protect others from physical harm, are better for society than those who do not.

When you are a company who makes products of the type that kill 40,000 people every year in our country alone, you have a heightened duty to ensure that your customers use that product in a safe manner. Any attempts to encourage your customers to use that product illegally amount to criminal conspiracy, or gross negligence at the very least.

That’s not actually answer to the question.

[soulpatchmike]

Tesla is introducing a feature called "assertive" style in which self-driving cars will intentionally break traffic laws such as failing to obey stop signs: https://gizmodo.com/teslas-assertive-mode-brings-rolling-stops-to-self-driv-1848331537

Does anyone still think this company is good for society?

Which companies do you think are good for society?

Companies that avoid breaking the law, as well as those who discourage their customers from breaking the law, especially when it concerns laws meant to protect others from physical harm, are better for society than those who do not.

When you are a company who makes products of the type that kill 40,000 people every year in our country alone, you have a heightened duty to ensure that your customers use that product in a safe manner. Any attempts to encourage your customers to use that product illegally amount to criminal conspiracy, or gross negligence at the very least.

Teslas with autopilot engaged from inception through Q2 2021 crash roughly once ever 4.4 million miles, per Tesla

All other autos crash roughly once every 19k miles per AAA

5191 for all age groups
100M/5191=1 crash for every 19264 miles on average

I will take my chances with the rolling stop feature, they seem to have an extremely heightened view of making sure their product works orders of magnatude better than a human that might use it.  My odds are waaay better surviving a tesla rolling a stop sign than any human out on the road while riding a bike.

[AlanStache]

soulpatchmike - your conclusion may be right but I am not 100% confident on the reasoning.  No doubt teslas are very safe on a per mile driven basis but you can rack up a lot of miles at freeway speeds where there are few unexpected or difficult to detect or difficult to plan for events around you.  Low speed around pedestrians is totally different than highway driving.  Yes ultimately self-driving cars will probably be a lot safer than human drivers in all or nearly all conditions. 

[soulpatchmike]

soulpatchmike - your conclusion may be right but I am not 100% confident on the reasoning.  No doubt teslas are very safe on a per mile driven basis but you can rack up a lot of miles at freeway speeds where there are few unexpected or difficult to detect or difficult to plan for events around you.  Low speed around pedestrians is totally different than highway driving.  Yes ultimately self-driving cars will probably be a lot safer than human drivers in all or nearly all conditions. 

This rolling stop feature we are talking about is for the current beta FSD that is available for only a limited selection of tesla drivers and it works on all roads including downtown areas like San Francisco(there are lots of FSD video drives on you tube of the latest versions).  They release a new beta once or twice a month.  The driver is actively paying attention while the car drives for them, storing more and more data for the neural network to build from.  If they don't pay attention, they are dropped from the beta program.  There is no way this feature will be released broadly unless there is data to support a continued multi-million miles per accident or manual FSD disengagement.  Telsa counts manual interventions on the beta FSD like an accident, even though there wasn't one to insure they are building an AI smarter than a human.  The computer is and will be smarter than me when ready to be released broadly.

[GuitarStv]

I don't have a self driving Tesla, but wonder about those stats that they're collecting.  Does the average Tesla driver put the car in self-driving mode during the most difficult driving conditions (heavy rain/snow/sleet/ice and busy city driving) or do they tend to take control during those periods?  If the latter, it could be skewing the data to read somewhat safer than it otherwise would.

[neo von retorch]

5191 for all age groups
100M/5191=1 crash for every 19264 miles on average

I believe this is just inaccurate math.

In each age group, the rate is per 100 million miles driven. The distribution doesn't pull from a collective set of 100 million miles driven.

So you might say the average across age groups is ~519 accidents per 100mm (this is hand wavy, as the age distribution is not even). That puts the miles between accidents at 192,678. It still illustrates your point but is a more accurate number for comparison.

If you focus on the 30-60 crowd that are likely behind the wheel of a Tesla, the crash rate is closer to one every 312,500 miles.

Tesla uses NHTSA numbers. See https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/National%20Statistics.pdf
In 2019, the math comes out to 482,796 miles between crashes nationally.

In Tesla's chart, even Tesla drivers see 1 million miles between crashes without any safety features. So somehow those cars are "just safer", or there are other factors. Who's driving them? How are sedans and SUVs (in this price range) driven compared to all cars? What states Tesla drivers live in? What streets they drive them on? If AutoPilot is the draw, and it's mostly used on highways, perhaps Tesla drivers mostly drive on highways, whether or not they typically enable the feature (perhaps depending on how ideal the conditions are.)

[Paper Chaser]

I don't have a self driving Tesla, but wonder about those stats that they're collecting.  Does the average Tesla driver put the car in self-driving mode during the most difficult driving conditions (heavy rain/snow/sleet/ice and busy city driving) or do they tend to take control during those periods?  If the latter, it could be skewing the data to read somewhat safer than it otherwise would.

Exactly this. Autopilot (which is not actually autopilot) is intended to be used like fancy cruise control to reduce driver fatigue in easy driving situations. Their more advanced Full Self Driving (which is not actually self driving) has had an increasing number of pretty visible failures at pretty basic driving situations. The public failures are increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and governments:

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-01-11/dmv-message-to-legislatures-ontesla-full-self-driving-safety-its-not-our-job

If Tesla actually has to report their data to CA government like other autonomous driving companies do, we'll get a better picture of their safety record, how it compares to other autonomous tech, and what situations it's struggling with instead of some opaque info that comes from Tesla and cannot be verified.

[soulpatchmike]

I don't have a self driving Tesla, but wonder about those stats that they're collecting.  Does the average Tesla driver put the car in self-driving mode during the most difficult driving conditions (heavy rain/snow/sleet/ice and busy city driving) or do they tend to take control during those periods?  If the latter, it could be skewing the data to read somewhat safer than it otherwise would.

Exactly this. Autopilot (which is not actually autopilot) is intended to be used like fancy cruise control to reduce driver fatigue in easy driving situations. Their more advanced Full Self Driving (which is not actually self driving) has had an increasing number of pretty visible failures at pretty basic driving situations. The public failures are increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and governments:

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-01-11/dmv-message-to-legislatures-ontesla-full-self-driving-safety-its-not-our-job

If Tesla actually has to report their data to CA government like other autonomous driving companies do, we'll get a better picture of their safety record, how it compares to other autonomous tech, and what situations it's struggling with instead of some opaque info that comes from Tesla and cannot be verified.

Well Tesla drivers without any FSD features enabled are crashing once every 1.2M miles which is still less than half as often as other vehicles.  Must just be the type of person that buys a Tesla driver is less likely to crash in general.  FSD in whatever form, simple active monitoring,  FSD on highway is 4 times less likely to crash no matter when it is enabled good or bad weather.  Unless Tesla are straight up not counting crashes, the data supports these findings.

It is doubtful that the beta FSD that can drive anywhere has any data released on it yet.  No different than waymo and others that are driving around in beta vehicles with a driver behind the wheel...I thought we were just talking about the rolling stop feature on the beta FSD that currently requires an attentive driver.

[Paper Chaser]

I don't have a self driving Tesla, but wonder about those stats that they're collecting.  Does the average Tesla driver put the car in self-driving mode during the most difficult driving conditions (heavy rain/snow/sleet/ice and busy city driving) or do they tend to take control during those periods?  If the latter, it could be skewing the data to read somewhat safer than it otherwise would.

Exactly this. Autopilot (which is not actually autopilot) is intended to be used like fancy cruise control to reduce driver fatigue in easy driving situations. Their more advanced Full Self Driving (which is not actually self driving) has had an increasing number of pretty visible failures at pretty basic driving situations. The public failures are increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and governments:

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-01-11/dmv-message-to-legislatures-ontesla-full-self-driving-safety-its-not-our-job

If Tesla actually has to report their data to CA government like other autonomous driving companies do, we'll get a better picture of their safety record, how it compares to other autonomous tech, and what situations it's struggling with instead of some opaque info that comes from Tesla and cannot be verified.

Well Tesla drivers without any FSD features enabled are crashing once every 1.2M miles which is still less than half as often as other vehicles.  Must just be the type of person that buys a Tesla driver is less likely to crash in general.  FSD in whatever form, simple active monitoring,  FSD on highway is 4 times less likely to crash no matter when it is enabled good or bad weather.  Unless Tesla are straight up not counting crashes, the data supports these findings.

It is doubtful that the beta FSD that can drive anywhere has any data released on it yet.  No different than waymo and others that are driving around in beta vehicles with a driver behind the wheel...I thought we were just talking about the rolling stop feature on the beta FSD that currently requires an attentive driver.

Comparing the track record of Autopilot, which is intended to be used in easy driving situations, and then hands control to the human when things get hard isn't apples to apples with human drivers that have to handle all of the driving responsibilities in all situations. Of course the human that has to deal with more difficult things for more time will be worse than the software that gets to do the easy stuff and then has no responsibility when it comes upon something it can't deal with.

Waymo, GMs Cruise, etc all share their safety data with the CA DMV. If it's decided that Autopilot or FSD users are treating Teslas tech as Level 3, instead of the Level 2 that it actually is, then Tesla would be required to report all of their incidents and interventions like the other companies already do. I think that would actually be a good thing for transparency.

I have no problem with most stop signs being replaced by Yield signs. But I understand people that have concerns with a company programming supposed safety tech to be able to break traffic laws. Teslas don't exactly have a perfect track record when it comes to recognizing their surroundings.

[Syonyk]

Well Tesla drivers without any FSD features enabled are crashing once every 1.2M miles which is still less than half as often as other vehicles.  Must just be the type of person that buys a Tesla driver is less likely to crash in general.

Yes.  If you're going to compare Teslas like for like with other cars, you need to be comparing with the $100k luxury car class for the long Model S/X era, and then the still high priced, brand new, $50k car class for the 3/Y.

In general, these are going to be driven by well off, mid-life people with a decade or two of driving under their belts already, and that group of person is quite unlikely to be in crashes.  Throw in that you tend to have a stronger interest in the EVs, especially early on, from people who were driving a lot of miles (which was far cheaper with an EV), and you end up with a group of people driving Teslas who are quite unlikely to be in crashes in the first place.  Regardless of automation.

You typically see a bathtub curve for "crash frequency vs age" - it starts high with young drivers, drops in the late 20s to early 30s (that whole "25 year old" limit for rentals is exceedingly well supported by data), and remains substantially low until the 70s or 80s, at which point it starts to head up again.

I think there are some similar effects with wealth, but in general, Tesla owners are selected from a group that's exceedingly unlikely to be in accidents in the first place.

And Autopilot, for a long chunk of time, at least, wouldn't engage in challenging conditions.  If you're going to compare "limited access, divided highways in good weather" crashes against all crashes in all weather, you're going to get similar results.

The data we have from Tesla is their analysis of the data, and they steadfastly refuse to release the raw data sets for analysis, or even just more fine grained aggregate data regarding road types, conditions, etc.  It's not proof they're playing fast and loose with numbers to make marketing points, but it's sure the sort of thing you'd do if you wanted to claim the data said something that a more in-depth analysis didn't support.

Tesla could solve this neatly by allowing various highway safety researchers access to the more complete data sets, and they don't.  So I have to assume that they're doing something a bit fishy with statistics here.

[Syonyk]

Also, regarding Tesla's "famous" quality control, seems nothing has changed.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/43876/tesla-model-3-owner-discovers-car-was-delivered-missing-a-brake-pad

The car was delivered without a brake pad, the owner sent a video of the noise to the service center since service appointments were many weeks out, and was told "It's normal," and Tesla can't, apparently, get the parts to fix a defectively delivered car.  So, business as usual for them, and one of many reasons I'll never own one of that particular brand.

[nereo]

Also, regarding Tesla's "famous" quality control, seems nothing has changed.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/43876/tesla-model-3-owner-discovers-car-was-delivered-missing-a-brake-pad

The car was delivered without a brake pad, the owner sent a video of the noise to the service center since service appointments were many weeks out, and was told "It's normal," and Tesla can't, apparently, get the parts to fix a defectively delivered car.  So, business as usual for them, and one of many reasons I'll never own one of that particular brand.

What car brands would you own?  Serious question.

I’m not a big fan of Tesla, but I’m also not a fan of the car industry in general. VW knowingly cheated and broke a whole slew of laws with their emissions software. Oh wait, turns out Subaru, Suzuki and Mazda did too.  Toyota build cars that unexpected accelerated into other things. GM built shitty (and lethal) ignition switches.  Ford built and sold the Pinto.  Honda continued to use airbags which were metal shrapnel delivery devices long after they knew better. Daimler bribed a whole slew of nations to get around embargos. 

Seems most car companies have done excessively crappy things (often to the level of criminality) every couple decades.  Money and corruption…

[pecunia]

I don't own a Toyota, but they have a very good reputation for reliability and longevity. 

[Just Joe]

I have one of those Chevrolet's with the sketchy ignition switch. I replaced it with a new aftermarket ignition switch for $30 and didn't look back.

We had one of those Hondas with the sketchy airbags. Didn't drive it much for a while but they replaced the airbag (driver's side only) for free.

Frankly, these are great reasons to buy a used car with some age on it. Problems are discovered, aftermarket solutions present themselves at affordable prices, life goes on.

[Syonyk]

What car brands would you own?  Serious question.

Good question, and it's a hard problem, because, as you note, most automakers have done some questionable things at some point in their history.  Some deliberate, some less so.  I'm running into this problem in more and more places, and at some point will probably just end up maintaining the stuff I have indefinitely.  A bunch of it's ancient anyway by most people's standards.  As long as I can get parts...

However, I'll generally bias more against recent misbehavior.  Ford's behavior in the 1970s has less impact on my decisions today than bizarre one-off QC failures and repair-hostile activities (yes, I know Ford screwed up roof glue, I expect they'll be a good bit more careful in years ahead about that sort of stuff).

I can say I currently have a Ford (1997 F350 CCLB diesel), a Chevy (2012 Volt), a Willys (1930 8-80D), two Urals (Russian sidecar bikes), and a Buell (2002 Blast).  Plus a tractor (Ford 9N, ~1940 build date).

I object to repair-hostile vehicles (Tesla is a flagship here, John Deere's recent stuff also qualifies and I won't own that), and I object to "big data" style behavioral aggregation, so basically anything with an active cell modem needs to be nerfed before I'll consider it.  I've not pulled the Volt's modem because it talks to towers that no longer exist, and Onstar is pre-collect-and-aggregate-all-the-surpluses-to-sell that most modern vehicles are taking advantage of.  The new Roxor looks nice, just isn't street legal...

I hope to not have to worry about it for a long while at this point, but I don't mind Chevy's offerings in the EV space, once they replace the batteries in all the Bolts.  I still prefer PHEVs, so if something happened that required replacing our Volt, I'd probably get a Gen 2 and pull the cell modem out of it.  Otherwise, I just haven't been keeping close track.  The Urals are... I mean, they're a Russian bike, based on a 1939 BMW, and they have a sidecar.  They're ill behaved, cantankerous pains in the ass, but are mostly mechanical and straightforward.

VW knowingly cheated and broke a whole slew of laws with their emissions software.

VW played an interesting game, and I'm honestly not sure I object.  It was a discussion that was worth having, certainly - is fuel consumption and CO2 emissions more or less important than NOx emissions, or should it be location based?  NOx out in the middle of nowhere isn't (IMO) that big a deal if you trade off slightly higher NOx for significantly improved fuel burn, which they did.

Seems most car companies have done excessively crappy things (often to the level of criminality) every couple decades.  Money and corruption…

Pretty much.  Pick something you can maintain for the long haul and try not to replace vehicles often, I suppose.

[pecunia]

 "The new Roxor looks nice, just isn't street legal..."

Some people have made their Roxor's street legal.

https://www.dirtlegal.com/services/roxor-street-legal-registration

I think a small electric Jeep Like thing would be a big seller.  For many people, it would be a perfect second car as it would be big enough to be a grocery getter and able to go off road.

[AccidentialMustache]

https://electrek.co/2022/01/16/bp-claims-ev-charging-stations-on-the-cusp-of-being-more-profitable-than-gas-pumps/

The death knell of ICE is nigh, although how much that'll remain true as competition heats up is an open question. The $/kwh rate at an EA station as a non-member is 3.5x my home $/kwh price. Even as a member, it is 2.5x my home price. I know businesses, especially spikey high-draw businesses pay via a very different rate schedule than households do, but I'm having a tough time thinking that if every gas station in the US was instead an EV station, that those multiples would be sustainable.

[GodlessCommie]

On the contrary, I think that expensive fast charging is here to stay. We are not buying electricity, we are buying charging services. Not only spiky high-draw power is expensive, but the equipment is expensive, too. Its utilization rate must be low for it to be always available.

I don't think it's a deterrent to EV adoption in any way, though. Fast charging is rarely needed, and the total cost of running an EV can remain low despite pricey Level 3 rates. If nothing else, short of mandates (which are not happening in the US), this is the only incentive to get fast chargers widely available.

[boarder42]

https://electrek.co/2022/01/16/bp-claims-ev-charging-stations-on-the-cusp-of-being-more-profitable-than-gas-pumps/

The death knell of ICE is nigh, although how much that'll remain true as competition heats up is an open question. The $/kwh rate at an EA station as a non-member is 3.5x my home $/kwh price. Even as a member, it is 2.5x my home price. I know businesses, especially spikey high-draw businesses pay via a very different rate schedule than households do, but I'm having a tough time thinking that if every gas station in the US was instead an EV station, that those multiples would be sustainable.

there is no reason for every gas station in the US to exist anymore - Fast EV charging is only necessary for long trips the other charging will happen at home.  The landscape of all of this is changing.  Its why quick trip has been heavily beefing up its food options to play in that convience fast food space even more.

[pecunia]

https://electrek.co/2022/01/16/bp-claims-ev-charging-stations-on-the-cusp-of-being-more-profitable-than-gas-pumps/

The death knell of ICE is nigh, although how much that'll remain true as competition heats up is an open question. The $/kwh rate at an EA station as a non-member is 3.5x my home $/kwh price. Even as a member, it is 2.5x my home price. I know businesses, especially spikey high-draw businesses pay via a very different rate schedule than households do, but I'm having a tough time thinking that if every gas station in the US was instead an EV station, that those multiples would be sustainable.

there is no reason for every gas station in the US to exist anymore - Fast EV charging is only necessary for long trips the other charging will happen at home.  The landscape of all of this is changing.  Its why quick trip has been heavily beefing up its food options to play in that convience fast food space even more.

For a long time these places have made more on their sales of items other than fuel.  There have been a lot of gas stations that have already closed in recent years.  I think the chains have run them off.

[nereo]

https://electrek.co/2022/01/16/bp-claims-ev-charging-stations-on-the-cusp-of-being-more-profitable-than-gas-pumps/

The death knell of ICE is nigh, although how much that'll remain true as competition heats up is an open question. The $/kwh rate at an EA station as a non-member is 3.5x my home $/kwh price. Even as a member, it is 2.5x my home price. I know businesses, especially spikey high-draw businesses pay via a very different rate schedule than households do, but I'm having a tough time thinking that if every gas station in the US was instead an EV station, that those multiples would be sustainable.

there is no reason for every gas station in the US to exist anymore - Fast EV charging is only necessary for long trips the other charging will happen at home.  The landscape of all of this is changing.  Its why quick trip has been heavily beefing up its food options to play in that convience fast food space even more.

For a long time these places have made more on their sales of items other than fuel.  There have been a lot of gas stations that have already closed in recent years.  I think the chains have run them off.

I do wonder how the model of selling transportation energy might change in the years to come as EVs become more popular.  As pecunia points out - most service stations make more profit selling an energy drink than they do a tank of fuel.

What's interesting to me is the "where" in how people may recharge their BEVs. Because of the nasty, explosive nature of and infrastructure requirements for holding and dispensing gasoline we've been largely limited to gas stations (which themselves were zoning-limited to mostly industrial areas).  But an electrical plug doesn't have such restrictions, and I'd reckon >90% of businesses could easily install at least a couple of low-tech L2 chargers with minimal upfront cost (certainly under $1k).

As one member argues here, there are some good reasons for some businesses to start offering "free 1 hour charging!" to attract customers - at ~$1 in electricity charges you get a captive audience to spend more money at your business.  And we're already seeing a lot of restaurants, inns and breweries do just this. Whether this trend continues to expand... I have no idea.  It does seem to be unique to EV charging though.

[GodlessCommie]

As one member argues here, there are some good reasons for some businesses to start offering "free 1 hour charging!" to attract customers - at ~$1 in electricity charges you get a captive audience to spend more money at your business.  And we're already seeing a lot of restaurants, inns and breweries do just this. Whether this trend continues to expand... I have no idea.  It does seem to be unique to EV charging though.

It makes even more sense for hotels. Which is why "Tesla destination charger" is a thing. It may become a competitive disadvantage to not have a way to charge a car in the near future.

[boarder42]

As one member argues here, there are some good reasons for some businesses to start offering "free 1 hour charging!" to attract customers - at ~$1 in electricity charges you get a captive audience to spend more money at your business.  And we're already seeing a lot of restaurants, inns and breweries do just this. Whether this trend continues to expand... I have no idea.  It does seem to be unique to EV charging though.

It makes even more sense for hotels. Which is why "Tesla destination charger" is a thing. It may become a competitive disadvantage to not have a way to charge a car in the near future.

yep i'd agree more with this - it will be necessary for hotels to have chargers at every parking space.

[pecunia]

I wonder if they will be installing charging stations at freeway rest stops.  It seems an ideal way to collect revenue for some states.  They already have the vehicle volume.

[Frugal Lizard]

I wonder if they will be installing charging stations at freeway rest stops.  It seems an ideal way to collect revenue for some states.  They already have the vehicle volume.

This is happening in Ontario - at least in the planning stages.

[nereo]

I wonder if they will be installing charging stations at freeway rest stops.  It seems an ideal way to collect revenue for some states.  They already have the vehicle volume.

At least in my state every major rest stop has EVcharging. Most are fast DC chargers that cost too much but they are convenient if you want to do a road trip.

[GodlessCommie]

We were driving through Ohio, and every rest stop on that road had Level 3 chargers.

[pecunia]

We were driving through Ohio, and every rest stop on that road had Level 3 chargers.

That's a surprise.  Until the Covid, I regularly traveled through Ohio.  I think it's great.  It's a service to people and the environment.  Scratch one idea.

[Paper Chaser]

Strong Q4 for Tesla, but Elon also confirmed there will be no Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster for at least another year (surprising zero people). So, good that they're making money and scaling production of 3/Y, but bad that they continue to delay products they've been promising/hyping for years now, and that would help expand into new markets while appealing to new demographics:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusiasts/tesla-hits-record-5-5b-profit-but-musk-says-no-cybertruck-semi-or-roadster-in-2022/ar-AATb7x5

Sounds like 1 step forward, but also one step back for EVs becoming popular in the US

[StashingAway]

Strong Q4 for Tesla, but Elon also confirmed there will be no Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster for at least another year (surprising zero people). So, good that they're making money and scaling production of 3/Y, but bad that they continue to delay products they've been promising/hyping for years now, and that would help expand into new markets while appealing to new demographics:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusiasts/tesla-hits-record-5-5b-profit-but-musk-says-no-cybertruck-semi-or-roadster-in-2022/ar-AATb7x5

Sounds like 1 step forward, but also one step back for EVs becoming popular in the US

I'll keep saying it until I see production vehicles- I don't think they can get the Cybertruck to pass DOE safety standards without significant redesign. I think they bit off more than they could chew. I suspect that the high profit 3/Y ramp up is a convenience in that it buys them more time to figure it out.

[JLee]

Strong Q4 for Tesla, but Elon also confirmed there will be no Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster for at least another year (surprising zero people). So, good that they're making money and scaling production of 3/Y, but bad that they continue to delay products they've been promising/hyping for years now, and that would help expand into new markets while appealing to new demographics:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusiasts/tesla-hits-record-5-5b-profit-but-musk-says-no-cybertruck-semi-or-roadster-in-2022/ar-AATb7x5

Sounds like 1 step forward, but also one step back for EVs becoming popular in the US

I don't see the Cybertruck being delayed as being relevant to EV popularity -- it wasn't exactly something designed to appeal to the majority of the population.  Check out the preorders for the F150 Lightning -- they've preordered way more than they can make anytime soon.  Rivian is allegedly ramping up production, the Silverado EV is a few years out, etc.

[soulpatchmike]

Strong Q4 for Tesla, but Elon also confirmed there will be no Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster for at least another year (surprising zero people). So, good that they're making money and scaling production of 3/Y, but bad that they continue to delay products they've been promising/hyping for years now, and that would help expand into new markets while appealing to new demographics:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusiasts/tesla-hits-record-5-5b-profit-but-musk-says-no-cybertruck-semi-or-roadster-in-2022/ar-AATb7x5

Sounds like 1 step forward, but also one step back for EVs becoming popular in the US

If they grow 50% and sell ~1.4M vehicles in 2022 without launching a new vehicle haven't they have done more than enough to support EVs being popular in the US? 

Ford, RAM and GM sell a collective total of ~950M light, medium, and heavy-duty trucks annually in the US.  Why try and ramp CT, which has a max demand of about 250-300k/year globally in the middle of supply chain constraints when they are maximizing the efficiencies of the assembly processes they already have to sell 500k more vehicles this year?  The semi only has max sales demand of ~25k units per year and the roadster less than 1k units per year.

[Paper Chaser]

Strong Q4 for Tesla, but Elon also confirmed there will be no Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster for at least another year (surprising zero people). So, good that they're making money and scaling production of 3/Y, but bad that they continue to delay products they've been promising/hyping for years now, and that would help expand into new markets while appealing to new demographics:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusiasts/tesla-hits-record-5-5b-profit-but-musk-says-no-cybertruck-semi-or-roadster-in-2022/ar-AATb7x5

Sounds like 1 step forward, but also one step back for EVs becoming popular in the US

If they grow 50% and sell ~1.4M vehicles in 2022 without launching a new vehicle haven't they have done more than enough to support EVs being popular in the US? 

Ford, RAM and GM sell a collective total of ~950M light, medium, and heavy-duty trucks annually in the US.  Why try and ramp CT, which has a max demand of about 250-300k/year globally in the middle of supply chain constraints when they are maximizing the efficiencies of the assembly processes they already have to sell 500k more vehicles this year?  The semi only has max sales demand of ~25k units per year and the roadster less than 1k units per year.

To clarify, selling 1.4 million vehicles would be 50% gain for Tesla's global sales. They sold about 300k in the US last year:

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2021-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-brand/

Meanwhile the top 3 selling vehicles last year in the US were trucks:
GM sold 777k Silverado/Sierras combined, Ford sold 725k F series, and Ram sold 569k trucks. That's in the same supply constrained market that Tesla is dealing with:

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2021-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/

The people want trucks. They're willing to pay a premium for them. Many people want EV trucks (as the reservations seem to indicate). If EVs are to become mainstream in the US, EV pickup trucks will be a huge driver of that growth. Seeing the perceived leader in EVs frequently delay something that they seem to want might concern people and make them less likely to adopt an EV. Seeing EVs do different jobs in different forms is a big deal too, so I think that even small volume, niche products like the Tesla Semi or Roadster have some importance in EVs gaining widespread adoption too. Seeing those same vehicles continually delayed makes it seem like EVs are more distant than they really are.

[neo von retorch]

Tesla Model 3 average selling price (ASP) was around $51k in 2021. Overall for cars, ASP was $38k (KBB actually puts this closer to $41k). Of course, for trucks, it's higher. Energy.gov⁰ showed it as $38k while cars were $27k in 2019. At any rate, lots of trucks sell for (on average) around $50k now. Cars, less so. I still can't help that the Model 3 pricing will eventually limit their popularity. But their market clearly isn't saturated yet (especially since EVs still make up single digits in the U.S.) This article says ~3% in 2021, and expectations of 5% in 2022¹.

⁰ https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1168-january-11-2021-average-new-light-truck-price-2019-was-43-higher
¹ https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-cars-2022-models-market-tesla-ford-gm-lucid-rivian-2021-12

[GodlessCommie]

I'll keep saying it until I see production vehicles- I don't think they can get the Cybertruck to pass DOE safety standards without significant redesign. I think they bit off more than they could chew. I suspect that the high profit 3/Y ramp up is a convenience in that it buys them more time to figure it out.

That's my feeling, too.

Plus, not every legacy industry is as lazy as the space side of legacy aerospace, which Musk ate for breakfast. It's easy to stereotype trucks as a space where nothing happens, which I'm guilty of doing myself. But it is, in fact, a space of constant innovation, even if incremental. It is also insanely competitive (again, unlike the space side of legacy aerospace), with tens of millions of picky customers vs a handful of government agencies.

I give Must credit for the early push for electrification of trucks, and I wish him success - but I'm not confident that success in this space is assured for him. And I wish success to every other company working of EV trucks in equal measure.

[StashingAway]

Strong Q4 for Tesla, but Elon also confirmed there will be no Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster for at least another year (surprising zero people). So, good that they're making money and scaling production of 3/Y, but bad that they continue to delay products they've been promising/hyping for years now, and that would help expand into new markets while appealing to new demographics:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusiasts/tesla-hits-record-5-5b-profit-but-musk-says-no-cybertruck-semi-or-roadster-in-2022/ar-AATb7x5

Sounds like 1 step forward, but also one step back for EVs becoming popular in the US

I don't see the Cybertruck being delayed as being relevant to EV popularity -- it wasn't exactly something designed to appeal to the majority of the population.  Check out the preorders for the F150 Lightning -- they've preordered way more than they can make anytime soon.  Rivian is allegedly ramping up production, the Silverado EV is a few years out, etc.

Balogna. Why the low price point? And your examples of lightening and Rivian only support the market demand for EV pickups. The Cybertruck has some qualities that have both of those vehicles beat... if the ever make it.

[nereo]

I'll keep saying it until I see production vehicles- I don't think they can get the Cybertruck to pass DOE safety standards without significant redesign. I think they bit off more than they could chew. I suspect that the high profit 3/Y ramp up is a convenience in that it buys them more time to figure it out.

That's my feeling, too.

Plus, not every legacy industry is as lazy as the space side of legacy aerospace, which Musk ate for breakfast. It's easy to stereotype trucks as a space where nothing happens, which I'm guilty of doing myself. But it is, in fact, a space of constant innovation, even if incremental. It is also insanely competitive (again, unlike the space side of legacy aerospace), with tens of millions of picky customers vs a handful of government agencies.

I give Must credit for the early push for electrification of trucks, and I wish him success - but I'm not confident that success in this space is assured for him. And I wish success to every other company working of EV trucks in equal measure.

The light truck market might be the toughest but to crack because there is such fierce competition AND because it’s a segment where most owners don’t rank fuel Efficency or environmental concerns very high in their list. So you’ve got to make a truck that is as capable as the next crop of ICE pickups *and* is price competitive while maintaining or exceeding reliability. Fall short in any of those metrics and the eMPG score of 80+ is largely meaningless.

[neo von retorch]

The Model 3 costs only $35k, yet most cost $50k. Because that's their real price point.

The Cybertruck costs only $40k... yet... it is not going to sell for $40k. Not a chance. Tesla delays their product releases, and sells almost exclusively higher trim levels of their products. That's just how they operate.

I can't see inside Elon's mind, but I'm not sure if he cleverly made the outrageous Cybertruck design and believed everyone would love it, or just wanted to shake things up. In theory, a million people or more are ready to buy one⁰ (at the initial advertised price.) But that's based on $100 reservations, 0.25% of the cheapest theoretical purchase price. Will be curious to see what they really sell for, how many are made, and how many people end up buying them. Especially when there's competition including roughly $40k-50k Ford Lightning trucks (and similar) available as an alternative.

But I don't think it's popular because it was designed to be mainstream/popular. I think it's just popular to get in line for something wild and new. And yes, there's pent-up demand for EV pickups. I just think if the Cybertruck has genuine intention to appeal to the mainstream, they might not have "rocked the boat" so much with the design. I also think Tesla is largely a status brand. The reservation is a bit like asking someone if they want to get in line for a wicked new Maserati that beats other luxury touring cars but it's just $40,000 and you just have to put $100 in now. A lot of people would think that's pretty cool, but then when it is actually available, at the $40k price point, there's only one color, with plastic wheel covers, most of the features omitted, and also it's several years later than promised... and you can get a Jaguar for $50k in any color you want with a pretty nice package, or cough up $60k and get the Maserati you were promised... what are you going do? Not all 1.3M people will make all those concessions.

⁰ https://insideevs.com/news/549919/tesla-80-billion-cybertruck-reservations/

[JLee]

Strong Q4 for Tesla, but Elon also confirmed there will be no Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster for at least another year (surprising zero people). So, good that they're making money and scaling production of 3/Y, but bad that they continue to delay products they've been promising/hyping for years now, and that would help expand into new markets while appealing to new demographics:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusiasts/tesla-hits-record-5-5b-profit-but-musk-says-no-cybertruck-semi-or-roadster-in-2022/ar-AATb7x5

Sounds like 1 step forward, but also one step back for EVs becoming popular in the US

I don't see the Cybertruck being delayed as being relevant to EV popularity -- it wasn't exactly something designed to appeal to the majority of the population.  Check out the preorders for the F150 Lightning -- they've preordered way more than they can make anytime soon.  Rivian is allegedly ramping up production, the Silverado EV is a few years out, etc.

Balogna. Why the low price point? And your examples of lightening and Rivian only support the market demand for EV pickups. The Cybertruck has some qualities that have both of those vehicles beat... if the ever make it.

My point is that there is a market demand for pickups regardless of whether or not the Cybertruck exists.

The Cybertruck is $40k just like the F150 Lightning Pro is $39,xxx*.



*but they all sold out already so you can't buy one anyway

[Paper Chaser]

The Model 3 costs only $35k, yet most cost $50k. Because that's their real price point.

The Cybertruck costs only $40k... yet... it is not going to sell for $40k. Not a chance. Tesla delays their product releases, and sells almost exclusively higher trim levels of their products. That's just how they operate.

I can't see inside Elon's mind, but I'm not sure if he cleverly made the outrageous Cybertruck design and believed everyone would love it, or just wanted to shake things up. In theory, a million people or more are ready to buy one⁰ (at the initial advertised price.) But that's based on $100 reservations, 0.25% of the cheapest theoretical purchase price. Will be curious to see what they really sell for, how many are made, and how many people end up buying them. Especially when there's competition including roughly $40k-50k Ford Lightning trucks (and similar) available as an alternative.

But I don't think it's popular because it was designed to be mainstream/popular. I think it's just popular to get in line for something wild and new. And yes, there's pent-up demand for EV pickups. I just think if the Cybertruck has genuine intention to appeal to the mainstream, they might not have "rocked the boat" so much with the design. I also think Tesla is largely a status brand. The reservation is a bit like asking someone if they want to get in line for a wicked new Maserati that beats other luxury touring cars but it's just $40,000 and you just have to put $100 in now. A lot of people would think that's pretty cool, but then when it is actually available, at the $40k price point, there's only one color, with plastic wheel covers, most of the features omitted, and also it's several years later than promised... and you can get a Jaguar for $50k in any color you want with a pretty nice package, or cough up $60k and get the Maserati you were promised... what are you going do? Not all 1.3M people will make all those concessions.

⁰ https://insideevs.com/news/549919/tesla-80-billion-cybertruck-reservations/

The $35k Model 3 barely existed at all, and hasn't been an option for a couple of years now:

https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/16/21569524/tesla-model-3-35000-price-stop-selling

Tesla removed all of the info related to the Cybertruck's price and the detailed specs from their website last year:

https://electrek.co/2021/10/15/tesla-removes-cybertruck-specs-prices-from-website/

[neo von retorch]

Yes, if I try to price the Tesla Model 3 on the web site, removing any color/fancy wheels/upgrades, it now seems to start at $44,990 before a $1,200 dealer/doc fee.

[soulpatchmike]

When Apple released a $700 iPhone, the addressable market for a high-dollar smartphone was about 80 million devices per year.  During the launch Steve Jobs said it will be a worthwhile venture if they sold one million devices.  Today the addressable market for a $700 smartphone is ~1.5 billion devices per year.  People have chosen to take their earned dollars and pay for an extravagant device over other things.

Heard an interview today from Pierre Ferragu where he mentioned that only 40% of Tesla buyers are going from a luxury vehicle to a Tesla.  That means 60% of buyers are going from non-luxury vehicles to a Tesla.  Lots of 25k buyers are becoming and will continue to become 45-50k buyers.  They are choosing to spend more of their income on a vehicle at a rapid rate.  The total addressable luxury market is growing because of Tesla, they don't need a 25k car in the foreseeable future to grow beyond consensus wall street expectations.  I would bet Telsa is just surprised as the rest of us how much demand there is for the M/Y at 45-50k which only pads the margins even further and gives them more options to control growth in the future.

Why launch new products when you are supply chain constrained on the models that are still in ramp up?