Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?

[Just Joe]

Our first trip with the Kona will be a 10+ hour trip home. Geoarbitrage pricing.

Laid it out with ABRP (good call NorCal). Tonight's project will be opening accounts with the charger brands recommended by the route planner. I want to make it easy. Don't want to spook DW with technical challenges.

If there is anything anyone wants to know about the Kona (same as Niro mechanically) or Leaf, hit me up. I've read everything online and watched all the videos. ;)

This weekend will be the IRL final exam.

(Excited to show it to a few naysayers in our social circle. Prob won't even mention what's under the hood (and floor) for a while. Let the one I'm thinking of the most air his feelings on EVs at the next cookout - again. Opinionated fellow. He needs to do more homework before he pontificates. His backpedaling might be entertaining. I'm a wee bit evil that way.)

[NorCal]

Our first trip with the Kona will be a 10+ hour trip home. Geoarbitrage pricing.

Laid it out with ABRP (good call NorCal). Tonight's project will be opening accounts with the charger brands recommended by the route planner. I want to make it easy. Don't want to spook DW with technical challenges.

If there is anything anyone wants to know about the Kona (same as Niro mechanically) or Leaf, hit me up. I've read everything online and watched all the videos. ;)

This weekend will be the IRL final exam.

(Excited to show it to a few naysayers in our social circle. Prob won't even mention what's under the hood (and floor) for a while. Let the one I'm thinking of the most air his feelings on EVs at the next cookout - again. Opinionated fellow. He needs to do more homework before he pontificates. His backpedaling might be entertaining. I'm a wee bit evil that way.)

Sounds like a good first trip planned!

The only other thing I’ll add is to look for a hotel with a free L2 charger if you happen to be spending the night somewhere. Usually I’ll pull up PlugShare and filter by L2 chargers in whatever city I want to stay in as a starting point.

[Just Joe]

Thank you! We should be able to get home in one day but that sounds very useful for the future.

[LennStar]

I am not a car head and almost all car reports sound to me like the writer is on drugs, but this might still be interesting, it's about why esp. American car makers are doing really really bad - which of course is important for the topic.:

https://insideevs.com/features/719015/china-is-ahead-of-west/

I’d later learn that the auto show had more than 100 new model debuts and concepts. That’s a far cry from the Detroit Auto Show last September, which only featured one fully new model. Two other models were refreshed versions of current cars already on sale. None were electric.

[NorCal]

I am not a car head and almost all car reports sound to me like the writer is on drugs, but this might still be interesting, it's about why esp. American car makers are doing really really bad - which of course is important for the topic.:

https://insideevs.com/features/719015/china-is-ahead-of-west/

I’d later learn that the auto show had more than 100 new model debuts and concepts. That’s a far cry from the Detroit Auto Show last September, which only featured one fully new model. Two other models were refreshed versions of current cars already on sale. None were electric.

The simple answer is that the 2023 EV sales were 8 million in China, 3 million in the EU and 1.5 million in the US. They are also growing faster in China and the EU than in the US.

A market with 8 million cars sold (and growing rapidly) has room for potentially dozens of successful companies. A market with 3 million vehicles sold has room for maybe 5ish competitors.  A market with 1.5 million in sales might end up with 2-3 successful companies.

Things get a little more nuanced when you factor in growth rates and companies that compete in multiple markets.  But the companies that are dominant in the largest markets will be much more competitive worldwide.

This is an area where the US has a real risk of falling behind over the next few decades. The technologies that were important across the last 50 years were largely related to computing. The technologies that will matter most in the next 50 years are those related to the energy transition. The US is not nearly as well prepared to compete in this domain as in computing.  The IRA is a massive attempt to close this gap, but I’m skeptical that a subsidy scheme will build globally competitive companies.

[dividendman]

People bitch a lot about inflation, get those Chinese EVs in here, force the US companies to compete, and that'll bring prices down.

[nereo]

People bitch a lot about inflation, get those Chinese EVs in here, force the US companies to compete, and that'll bring prices down.

What's limiting the Chinese-made TVs from being sold in the US?
I've heard two reasons, either of which may be completely true, false, or somewhere inbetween

• They don't meet NHTSA safety standards
• Tariffs

If it's the former, that to me seems like a good reason. I don't want cars on the road which don't meet the same standards as all the others (including ones from Korea / Europe which make up a huge chunk of domestic vehicles).

If its the latter - how do we wind that down, particularly in the current political climate?

[JLee]

People bitch a lot about inflation, get those Chinese EVs in here, force the US companies to compete, and that'll bring prices down.

What's limiting the Chinese-made TVs from being sold in the US?
I've heard two reasons, either of which may be completely true, false, or somewhere inbetween

• They don't meet NHTSA safety standards
• Tariffs

If it's the former, that to me seems like a good reason. I don't want cars on the road which don't meet the same standards as all the others (including ones from Korea / Europe which make up a huge chunk of domestic vehicles).

If its the latter - how do we wind that down, particularly in the current political climate?

This is a bit of a tangent, but European standards are not necessarily inferior to US - there are superior technologies that aren't legal in the US yet because we are way behind the times. 
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/what-s-preventing-tesla-from-switching-on-adaptive-headlights-in-the-us-229883.html

[dividendman]

People bitch a lot about inflation, get those Chinese EVs in here, force the US companies to compete, and that'll bring prices down.

What's limiting the Chinese-made TVs from being sold in the US?
I've heard two reasons, either of which may be completely true, false, or somewhere inbetween

• They don't meet NHTSA safety standards
• Tariffs

If it's the former, that to me seems like a good reason. I don't want cars on the road which don't meet the same standards as all the others (including ones from Korea / Europe which make up a huge chunk of domestic vehicles).

If its the latter - how do we wind that down, particularly in the current political climate?

Well, #2 is definitely true, there is a 25% tarriff on Chinese cars... unsure how to get rid of that in this climate. Republicans used to be anti-tariff but now they're the biggest promoters (or at least Trump is).

Biden wants to up it to 100%... so I guess we're going in the wrong direction: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/10/us/politics/us-biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles.html

#1 might be true but lowering the tariffs might make them comply.

[nereo]

People bitch a lot about inflation, get those Chinese EVs in here, force the US companies to compete, and that'll bring prices down.

What's limiting the Chinese-made TVs from being sold in the US?
I've heard two reasons, either of which may be completely true, false, or somewhere inbetween

• They don't meet NHTSA safety standards
• Tariffs

If it's the former, that to me seems like a good reason. I don't want cars on the road which don't meet the same standards as all the others (including ones from Korea / Europe which make up a huge chunk of domestic vehicles).

If its the latter - how do we wind that down, particularly in the current political climate?

Well, #2 is definitely true, there is a 25% tarriff on Chinese cars... unsure how to get rid of that in this climate. Republicans used to be anti-tariff but now they're the biggest promoters (or at least Trump is).

Biden wants to up it to 100%... so I guess we're going in the wrong direction: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/10/us/politics/us-biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles.html

#1 might be true but lowering the tariffs might make them comply.

Could have been more clear re: tariffs.  Yes, clearly there are tariffs on Chinese-built EVs.  But is that what's preventing them from being sold in the US?  From what I've read BYD can build compact EVs for under $15k, so even with the tariff plus distribution they could sell them in the low-to-mid $20k without US tax credits. No idea about quality but on price alone that's competitive with the Bolt.
Or there's the tactic that other foreign makers have all adopted - set up a plant in the US to qualify for federal EV credits.  Why not do that as VW, Hyundai, Volvo, BMW and Nissan have all done?

I feel like something is missing to the puzzle of "why aren't Chinese EVs sold in the US (at any appreciable scale)

[NorCal]

People bitch a lot about inflation, get those Chinese EVs in here, force the US companies to compete, and that'll bring prices down.

What's limiting the Chinese-made TVs from being sold in the US?
I've heard two reasons, either of which may be completely true, false, or somewhere inbetween

• They don't meet NHTSA safety standards
• Tariffs

If it's the former, that to me seems like a good reason. I don't want cars on the road which don't meet the same standards as all the others (including ones from Korea / Europe which make up a huge chunk of domestic vehicles).

If its the latter - how do we wind that down, particularly in the current political climate?

Well, #2 is definitely true, there is a 25% tarriff on Chinese cars... unsure how to get rid of that in this climate. Republicans used to be anti-tariff but now they're the biggest promoters (or at least Trump is).

Biden wants to up it to 100%... so I guess we're going in the wrong direction: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/10/us/politics/us-biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles.html

#1 might be true but lowering the tariffs might make them comply.

Could have been more clear re: tariffs.  Yes, clearly there are tariffs on Chinese-built EVs.  But is that what's preventing them from being sold in the US?  From what I've read BYD can build compact EVs for under $15k, so even with the tariff plus distribution they could sell them in the low-to-mid $20k without US tax credits. No idea about quality but on price alone that's competitive with the Bolt.
Or there's the tactic that other foreign makers have all adopted - set up a plant in the US to qualify for federal EV credits.  Why not do that as VW, Hyundai, Volvo, BMW and Nissan have all done?

I feel like something is missing to the puzzle of "why aren't Chinese EVs sold in the US (at any appreciable scale)

Depending on how you define it, Volvo and Polestar are Chinese enough from a development standpoint.  They're just careful to distance themselves from that in their branding.

Most speculation I've heard is that BYD and others are more interested in exporting to the rest of the world than to the US.  There are a lot of easier markets to crack.  And that's fine by me; there's a whole world out there that needs low price EV's.  A lot of the uncertainty in the IEA's recent EV forecast had to do with demand in places like Brazil, India, Vietnam, etc. 

The policy-makers worry on Chinese EV's is that they'll set up factories in Mexico to get into the US using NAFTA.  I'd be fine with that from a free-trade perspective, but I also think it would just as likely blow up NAFTA in the current political climate. 

[GilesMM]

I think all Polestars are made in China, but they are not cheap and apparently no so reliable.

[RWD]

I think all Polestars are made in China, but they are not cheap and apparently no so reliable.

This is incorrect. The Polestar 3 is being built in South Carolina for the US market.

[RWD]

I think all Polestars are made in China, but they are not cheap and apparently no so reliable.

This is incorrect. The Polestar 3 is being built in South Carolina for the US market.

And I corrected you on this same statement back in February. I would appreciate if you would stop knowingly spreading false information.

[bacchi]

Speaking of that SC factory...

Volvo/Geely will start selling a China-made BEV crossover this summer in the US. They'll just pay the tariff.

But Volvo is eligible for tariff refunds under a law that awards them to firms with U.S. manufacturing operations — such as Volvo’s South Carolina plant — that also export similar products, according to U.S. trade law experts and a source familiar with Volvo's tariff-avoidance strategy.

[reeshau]

I think all Polestars are made in China, but they are not cheap and apparently no so reliable.

This is incorrect. The Polestar 3 is being built in South Carolina for the US market.

And I corrected you on this same statement back in February. I would appreciate if you would stop knowingly spreading false information.

The answer is: it's both:

https://media.polestar.com/global/en/media/pressreleases/681586/polestar-3-production-starts-early-test-production-successful-in-usa

[GilesMM]

I think all Polestars are made in China, but they are not cheap and apparently no so reliable.

This is incorrect. The Polestar 3 is being built in South Carolina for the US market.

And I corrected you on this same statement back in February. I would appreciate if you would stop knowingly spreading false information.

The answer is: it's both:

https://media.polestar.com/global/en/media/pressreleases/681586/polestar-3-production-starts-early-test-production-successful-in-usa

Sounds like they are hopeful but still testing. Let's hope it gets up and running.

[LennStar]

As mentioned ealier, BYD is buildung a fleet of car transporters for Europe, with the first in service just a few weeks ago.

I also think that they first aim for the easier EV markets. For example their smallest car is already sold in Mexico and Brasilia, and a version will be coming to Europe in 2025. In China that thing sells for under 10K dollar (70K Yuan), though the EU version will be bigger and certainly more expensive.

The smaller 300km battery is a sodium battery, which doesn't use cobalt or Lithium. If you can load it, it's the perfect second car to get to your work.

Not a car for conventional USA - but I also don't see any chance for American car makers to get anything on that price/utility scale for mustachians. Or for that matter, EU car makers in the near future.

[Tyson]

I was driving around Denver yesterday and I noticed there's a lot of older houses without a garage.  In some places the old homes have been knocked down and new homes put in their place.  But still no garage. 

Immediately I thought "all those cars parking in the street will need an electric station to be built out so they can charge at home".  But holy crap that's going to be expensive and require way to much new construction. 

Then it hit me.  You don't need substations on the street.  Every house already has capabilities for 220v 60A level 2 charging.  You just need to install a 220v outlet and then run an extension cable from the home to the car. 

The only 'cost' to the city would be to designate reserved parking spaces in front of each house for the owners.  Easy peasy.  And cheap.

For the sidewalks, the cables represent a tripping hazard, so you'd need something to address that.  I see 2 solutions.  The first is you could just put the cables under a rubber 'cable organizer' that you see in garages.  The second solution would be to drill up some of the sidewalk, run a cable under it, and re-fill the sidewalk.  You'd need to have connectors on each end of the wire and also find a way to make it waterproof.  But that's a far easier task than building out dedicated charging stations on the street.

[AlanStache]

I am not sure anything is "Easy peasy.  And cheap." wrt streets and cars....  One or two cranky old people can stop anything and budgets are very tight.  We tried to get a strip of paint near our building to split a spot between two drives to make it clear two cars can fit there.  No luck with the city - never got a "no", more of trouble getting calls returned or figuring out whos job that would be.  In the end we just put some uber strong colored ducktape down and called it a day.  Institutions exist for a reason - unintended consequences and rules written in blood and all that.  Anything done would need to be professionally installed and intended to last, could maybe see the home owners getting the option to pay to install a charger and with that getting a private parking place. 

[Tyson]

I am not sure anything is "Easy peasy.  And cheap." wrt streets and cars....  One or two cranky old people can stop anything and budgets are very tight.  We tried to get a strip of paint near our building to split a spot between two drives to make it clear two cars can fit there.  No luck with the city - never got a "no", more of trouble getting calls returned or figuring out whos job that would be.  In the end we just put some uber strong colored ducktape down and called it a day.  Institutions exist for a reason - unintended consequences and rules written in blood and all that.  Anything done would need to be professionally installed and intended to last, could maybe see the home owners getting the option to pay to install a charger and with that getting a private parking place.

I agree, local fiefdoms are a nightmare.  But we will need some solution for charging and street parking.  The only 2 solutions I see are "install street chargers for every house" or "let houses run charging cables from their home to their cars".  The 1st seems really heavy and the second seems much more doable. 

[GilesMM]

I am not sure anything is "Easy peasy.  And cheap." wrt streets and cars....  One or two cranky old people can stop anything and budgets are very tight.  We tried to get a strip of paint near our building to split a spot between two drives to make it clear two cars can fit there.  No luck with the city - never got a "no", more of trouble getting calls returned or figuring out whos job that would be.  In the end we just put some uber strong colored ducktape down and called it a day.  Institutions exist for a reason - unintended consequences and rules written in blood and all that.  Anything done would need to be professionally installed and intended to last, could maybe see the home owners getting the option to pay to install a charger and with that getting a private parking place.

I agree, local fiefdoms are a nightmare.  But we will need some solution for charging and street parking.  The only 2 solutions I see are "install street chargers for every house" or "let houses run charging cables from their home to their cars".  The 1st seems really heavy and the second seems much more doable.

Inductive wireless charging under all the roads would be cool but maybe expensive. There are trials running.

[reeshau]

What also is already wired and conveniently located to the street are light poles.

[Tyson]

What also is already wired and conveniently located toothed street are light poles.

A good idea, especially in the heart of downtowns.  The only issue I see is there are way more cars than there are light poles. 

[AlanStache]

What also is already wired and conveniently located toothed street are light poles.

A good idea, especially in the heart of downtowns.  The only issue I see is there are way more cars than there are light poles. 

If only there was a way to move about in more dense areas... /s

[pecunia]

I am not sure anything is "Easy peasy.  And cheap." wrt streets and cars....  One or two cranky old people can stop anything and budgets are very tight.  We tried to get a strip of paint near our building to split a spot between two drives to make it clear two cars can fit there.  No luck with the city - never got a "no", more of trouble getting calls returned or figuring out whos job that would be.  In the end we just put some uber strong colored ducktape down and called it a day.  Institutions exist for a reason - unintended consequences and rules written in blood and all that.  Anything done would need to be professionally installed and intended to last, could maybe see the home owners getting the option to pay to install a charger and with that getting a private parking place.

I agree, local fiefdoms are a nightmare.  But we will need some solution for charging and street parking.  The only 2 solutions I see are "install street chargers for every house" or "let houses run charging cables from their home to their cars".  The 1st seems really heavy and the second seems much more doable.

Hydrogen fuel cells may be the answer where charging is not easy.  I think there is going to be a lot of green hydrogen produced in coming years for industrial applications.  Both Honda and Toyota seem to keep doing the hydrogen car thing.  Thinking further outside the box, how will charging be accomplished in other countries where they have very old infrastructure, narrow streets and buildings hundreds of years old? 

Hydrogen has a higher energy density compared to batteries, meaning it can store more energy per unit of weight.

Perhaps there could be more storage in a hydrogen car.  It may also be less heavy.

These are still electric cars so I'm not too out of bounds here.

[nereo]

I am not sure anything is "Easy peasy.  And cheap." wrt streets and cars....  One or two cranky old people can stop anything and budgets are very tight.  We tried to get a strip of paint near our building to split a spot between two drives to make it clear two cars can fit there.  No luck with the city - never got a "no", more of trouble getting calls returned or figuring out whos job that would be.  In the end we just put some uber strong colored ducktape down and called it a day.  Institutions exist for a reason - unintended consequences and rules written in blood and all that.  Anything done would need to be professionally installed and intended to last, could maybe see the home owners getting the option to pay to install a charger and with that getting a private parking place.

I agree, local fiefdoms are a nightmare.  But we will need some solution for charging and street parking.  The only 2 solutions I see are "install street chargers for every house" or "let houses run charging cables from their home to their cars".  The 1st seems really heavy and the second seems much more doable.

Huh??
Not only is this NOT an unsolvable problem, but it is a problem which has already been solved in multiple cities where EVs now make up the majority of vehicles. Chargers don’t have to be inside a garage, and charging “at home, at night” isn’t the only practical option. On street chargers look a lot like parking meters. Parking lots with L2 chargers are seemingly everywhere. And of course their DCFC networks are way more developed than most places in the US.

Building out street-level chargers isn’t even the big challenge. Upgrading electrical service is a bigger barrier (but still straightforward… just expensive).

[Just Joe]

Maiden voyage of the Kona was today. The test drive was ~600 miles and it passed with flying colors. I'm not taking it back. ;)

This should meet our needs for a car just great.

A Better Route Planner was the key tool today. I did not spend any time comparing its results to any of the other apps or maps. I just took ABRP recommendations and did what I was told but I generally charged more than I needed to b/c I did not have alot of experience to fall back on. Don't charge less than it recommends. One leg of the trip used up most of a charge and there were no chargers between the two waypoints.

I also highly recommend purchasing a car over email and the phone when possible. It was a fraction of the dealer sales department hassle that we face 25 years ago doing it the traditional way. .

Need to source a second keyfob and floor mats. Can buy OEM examples at a fair price online. Also planning to change the gear reduction box oil this coming week per the forums wisdom.

Really enjoyed traveling with it. Charging added about two hours to the trip. Saw many other EVs with enthusiastic owners.

For any potential Leaf buyers - there was a working CHADEMO at every charge station I used today. Still this trip would not have been possible in a Leaf - as quickly.  I think the battery would have heated up and rather than ~30 min Kona charges there would be 1+ hour Leaf charges. Search "rapidgate" for explaination or ask and I'll explain. Might have needed to get a room along the way as progress slowed and fatigue set in. Maybe cooler overnight temperatures would have made for better traveling in a Leaf.

[pecunia]

So - I've been seeing stories that there is a "glut" of Chinese electric cars.  They are cranking out a supply larger than demand so the tale goes.  Is this true?

Then I saw a story about the Pontiac brand possibly coming back.  When I was a kid people with money had these cool Trans Am cars and such where I had an old Beetle.  Some of these electric cars have a certain blandness about them now.  All these Teslas are starting to look alike to me.  The Bolt is a good practical car, but it's still just another SUV.  What do you think?  If GM came out with an electric Pontiac, would it be embraced?

[LennStar]

So - I've been seeing stories that there is a "glut" of Chinese electric cars.  They are cranking out a supply larger than demand so the tale goes.  Is this true?

Partly. Don't forget there is currently a sort of economic crises in China because of the cumbling housing industry (See Evergrande). That part of the economy has been an important motor, carrying other sectors with it. So there is a lot of uncertainty and deflationary tendencies. Not the climate to splurge on new cars. Demand is currently lower than production.

However those "Chinese car makers can't sell any cars!!!" headlines are vastly overdramatizing. What happens is that Chinese companies press on unternational markets even more than before to reduce their stock.
Afaik BYD alone is selling more EVs in China than all foreign brands together, Tesla included. So saying "Chinese cars glut" is slightly one-sided ;)
And of course there is still startup consolidation going on. It's like 100 years ago, there are dozens of NEV makers and likely only 3 or 4 big ones will remain.

[Just Joe]

No glut of Chinese cars here in US flyover country b/c my gov't says I shouldn't be allowed to buy such things. ;)

Must protect existing USDM brands they tell me. And they are probably mostly right this time.

[Tyson]

Japanese and Korean cars are fine but Chinese cars are not?  That's ... odd.

[nereo]

Japanese and Korean cars are fine but Chinese cars are not?  That's ... odd.

There’s a persistent belief among people in the US that Chinese can only produce products of inferior quality. A generation or two ago it was Japan, though they’ve moved all the way from perceived junk to perceived top quality (eg Toyota, Canon/Nikon).
(https://youtu.be/VhxkjUwERvE?si=B1s8esAkliEsEaz_

Of course there’s still the question of how China treats its workers and the environment relative to Japan and Korea, but that’s a much lower motivating factor to most US consumers than “China makes junk”

[pecunia]

Japanese and Korean cars are fine but Chinese cars are not?  That's ... odd.

There’s a persistent belief among people in the US that Chinese can only produce products of inferior quality. A generation or two ago it was Japan, though they’ve moved all the way from perceived junk to perceived top quality (eg Toyota, Canon/Nikon).
(https://youtu.be/VhxkjUwERvE?si=B1s8esAkliEsEaz_

Of course there’s still the question of how China treats its workers and the environment relative to Japan and Korea, but that’s a much lower motivating factor to most US consumers than “China makes junk”

Money spent on China makes China richer.  A rich China can buy a big shining military.  A powerful Chinese military can be a problems for US, Australia, the Philippines, Japan and other neighbors. 

Professional economists believe in the foreign trade thing for US.  They say it's good for the country.  They don't live in the rust belt, I guess.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Many years ago, Taiwan had the reputation for electronics that were junk.  Today, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) is the most important chipmaker in the world.  Like Japan and Korea, Taiwan democratically elects leaders.

I have a different take on China making junk - they know their customers.  If Americans really thought the products were worthless, why do they keep buying?  They can look for "Made in China" on the box and the product, but they don't.  People want to criticize China, and keep benefitting from cheap goods.  Maybe it is a group action problem, where everyone wants to reduce dependence on China, but nobody wants to be the only one paying for it.

Japan and Korea have major automakers, and China is positioned to become an EV powerhouse.  I don't know the exact percentage of rare earths they control, but I recently heard the EU only meets 3% of its rare earth demand internally.  Those rare earths are required for lithium batteries, which are required for EVs.  Unlike other countries, China has everything it needs to make EVs at scale.

[LennStar]

I don't know the exact percentage of rare earths they control, but I recently heard the EU only meets 3% of its rare earth demand internally.  Those rare earths are required for lithium batteries, which are required for EVs.  Unlike other countries, China has everything it needs to make EVs at scale.

Depending on what you are talking about, the difference to "all" is just a rounding error. For some it's actually 100% - and those are needed for the best magnets, like in wind turbine magnets. (Over all the rare earths it's about 2/3)
Part of that is that there simply are no known(*) rare earths with viable amounts anywhere else, part is that CHina was always cheaper and people didn't threat to not vote for you if you opened a poison mine there.

(*) a lot has been found on Greenland in the last years. Like "most in the world" for some things. 

[Tyson]

I don't know the exact percentage of rare earths they control, but I recently heard the EU only meets 3% of its rare earth demand internally.  Those rare earths are required for lithium batteries, which are required for EVs.  Unlike other countries, China has everything it needs to make EVs at scale.

Depending on what you are talking about, the difference to "all" is just a rounding error. For some it's actually 100% - and those are needed for the best magnets, like in wind turbine magnets. (Over all the rare earths it's about 2/3)
Part of that is that there simply are no known(*) rare earths with viable amounts anywhere else, part is that CHina was always cheaper and people didn't threat to not vote for you if you opened a poison mine there.

(*) a lot has been found on Greenland in the last years. Like "most in the world" for some things.

Largest lithium deposit in the world was recently discovered in the USA.  The McDermitt Caldera with somewhere between 20 million and 40 million tons of lithium.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I looked at multiple articles, but each was written by someone claiming no industry experience.  So I defaulted back to Wikipedia, which lists the following top 3 countries for Lithium production:

Australia  61,000 tons
Chile  39,000 tons
China  19,000 tons
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production

Unlike Australia, Chile and China have doubled production in the past 4-5 years.  Maybe the trend could be a concern, but at present China makes 1/7th of the world's lithium.  Far less than I thought before checking.

[LennStar]

Lithium might be relativly rare but is not counted as "rare earths".

Regarding those I will quote from teh German WP and translate:

China's share of global production was reported at around 97.5 % in 2014,[8][9] falling to 71 % by 2018[10] and 66 % by 2022.[11] 12 % was produced in Australia and 9 % in the USA

As you can see there is a strong trend here of countries (or profit seeking companies or both) realizing how important the stuff is. Australia and USA had 0 production in 2010.

The point is, as so often, costs. Germany has rare Earth too - known since the 80s - but it's too expensive to use. (And also not very much)

[reeshau]

The Associated Press (And Wall Street Journal) both have articles today on the BYD Seagull.

"The weight savings add up, allowing the Seagull to travel farther per charge on a smaller battery. For example, the Seagull that Caresoft tested weighs 2,734 pounds (1,240 kilograms), about 900 pounds less than a Chevrolet Bolt, a slightly larger electric vehicle made by GM."

"Even with its minimalist design, the Seagull still has a quality feel. The doors close solidly. The gray synthetic leather seats have stitching that matches the body color, a feature usually found in more expensive cars. The Seagull “Flying Edition” tested by Caresoft has six air bags, rear disc brakes and electronic stability control."

"While the acceleration isn't head-snapping like other EVs, the Seagull is peppy and would have no problems entering a freeway in heavy traffic. Woychowski says its top speed is limited to 81 mph, (130 kilometers per hour).

BYD would have to modify its cars to meet U.S. safety standards, which are more stringent than in China. Woychowski says Caresoft hasn't done crash tests, but he estimated that would add $2,000 to the Seagull's cost."

[Paper Chaser]

The Bolt is a good practical car, but it's still just another SUV.

The Bolt isn't an SUV. It's smaller in most exterior dimensions than a Focus Hatchback that you often speak fondly of, while simultaneously offering more interior space:

2017 Focus hatchback dimensions:
Wheelbase (inches)- 104.3
Length (inches)- 171.6
Width, without mirrors (inches)- 71.8
Height (inches)- 57.7
Front Track Width (inches)- 61.2
Rear Track Width (inches)- 60.4
Minimum Ground Clearance (inches)- NA

Passenger / Seating Capacity- 5
Total Passenger Volume (cubic feet)- 90.7
Front Head Room (inches)- 38.3
Front Leg Room (inches)- 41.9
Front Shoulder Room (inches)- 55.6
Front Hip Room (inches)- 53.9
Second Row Head Room (inches)- 37.9
Second Row Leg Room (inches)- 33.2
Second Row Shoulder Room (inches)- 53.7
Second Row Hip Room (inches)- 52.7

Chevy Bolt dimensions:
Wheelbase (inches)- 102.4
Length (inches)- 163.2
Width, without mirrors (inches)- 69.5
Height (inches)- 63.4
Front Track Width (inches)- 59.1
Rear Track Width (inches)- 59.1
Minimum Ground Clearance (inches)- 5.35

Passenger / Seating Capacity- 5
Total Passenger Volume (cubic feet)- 93.9
Front Head Room (inches)- 40.1
Front Leg Room (inches)- 44.3
Front Shoulder Room (inches)- 54.6
Front Hip Room (inches)- 51.3
Second Row Head Room (inches)- 37.87
Second Row Leg Room (inches)- 36.01
Second Row Shoulder Room (inches)- 52.76
Second Row Hip Room (inches)- 50.63

The Bolt is narrower than the Focus, so things like shoulder and hip room are a bit tighter, but it also offers more head and leg room as a trade off.

[Paper Chaser]

Guys, the US gov concerns about Chinese cars have nothing to do with quality. They're concerned with two aspects:
1) A level economic playing field. Chinese OEMs are heavily subsidized by the Chinese government which has close ties to many of these companies. It's not a free market when the Chinese government is essentially buying down prices of their products to flood the market with inexpensive goods.
2) Security. All EVs sold in China are required to have real time government tracking capabilities. This includes Teslas, VWs, GMs, Fords, etc. Being connected vehicles, they can even be remotely shut down/made inoperable. Technically, the same thing is possible with any connected vehicle, and we should assume that the OEMs are probably doing some level of tracking even on US soil (similar to how your phone data is tracked, etc). But there's a difference between a corporation monitoring your data for money, and a foreign government monitoring your data and having remote control of your mobility.

Consumer sentiment is totally separate, and will be based on whatever marketers and politicians can make stick to gain traction.

[JLee]

Guys, the US gov concerns about Chinese cars have nothing to do with quality. They're concerned with two aspects:
1) A level economic playing field. Chinese OEMs are heavily subsidized by the Chinese government which has close ties to many of these companies. It's not a free market when the Chinese government is essentially buying down prices of their products to flood the market with inexpensive goods.
2) Security. All EVs sold in China are required to have real time government tracking capabilities. This includes Teslas, VWs, GMs, Fords, etc. Being connected vehicles, they can even be remotely shut down/made inoperable. Technically, the same thing is possible with any connected vehicle, and we should assume that the OEMs are probably doing some level of tracking even on US soil (similar to how your phone data is tracked, etc). But there's a difference between a corporation monitoring your data for money, and a foreign government monitoring your data and having remote control of your mobility.

Consumer sentiment is totally separate, and will be based on whatever marketers and politicians can make stick to gain traction.

I’m not sure how much better the US is re: your first point. Automakers and oil/gas enjoy significant government benefits.

[GuitarStv]

Japanese and Korean cars are fine but Chinese cars are not?  That's ... odd.

There’s a persistent belief among people in the US that Chinese can only produce products of inferior quality. A generation or two ago it was Japan, though they’ve moved all the way from perceived junk to perceived top quality (eg Toyota, Canon/Nikon).
(https://youtu.be/VhxkjUwERvE?si=B1s8esAkliEsEaz_

Of course there’s still the question of how China treats its workers and the environment relative to Japan and Korea, but that’s a much lower motivating factor to most US consumers than “China makes junk”

I think that it's very easy to overlook where those beliefs come/came from.  Post WWII Japanese made stuff was largely cheaply made junk.  It wasn't well designed, it broke easily.  So they gained a reputation for producing cheap junk and folks didn't want to touch their stuff.  Over time they many Japanese companies improved the quality of their offerings . . . and this improved the reputation of Japanese made goods.

Right now, every market is flooded with cheap Chinese made garbage.  There are a few Chinese companies who make high quality things (and there are many, many more who are capable of doing so) but it doesn't seem to be much of a priority.  As long as we're constantly looking for a more cost effective widget, Chinese businesses will continue to make the greatest cost cutting moves to produce that widget.  Which inevitably results in a cheaper but worse quality product.  Hence the reputation.  It's a reputation that's supported and reinforced by North American consumer demand.  If demand changes, the market will adapt and then higher quality products will be associated with Chinese brands leading to a better image for Chinese manufacturing as a whole.

[sonofsven]

https://youtu.be/JVobd1_G8Ek?si=PRm3sT7odsGQrrhZ

In terms of making electric cars popular, this is the sort of car that can change opinions: $249k Lucid Air Sapphire doing 8.9 second quarter mile times stock from the factory, which is insane. 0-60 mph in 1.7 seconds!
It's not the car for me, or likely you, but it's making its mark in the performance world.
There's a long history of automakers using wins on Sunday to drive sales on Monday.

[nereo]

Japanese and Korean cars are fine but Chinese cars are not?  That's ... odd.

There’s a persistent belief among people in the US that Chinese can only produce products of inferior quality. A generation or two ago it was Japan, though they’ve moved all the way from perceived junk to perceived top quality (eg Toyota, Canon/Nikon).
(https://youtu.be/VhxkjUwERvE?si=B1s8esAkliEsEaz_

Of course there’s still the question of how China treats its workers and the environment relative to Japan and Korea, but that’s a much lower motivating factor to most US consumers than “China makes junk”

I think that it's very easy to overlook where those beliefs come/came from.  Post WWII Japanese made stuff was largely cheaply made junk.  It wasn't well designed, it broke easily.  So they gained a reputation for producing cheap junk and folks didn't want to touch their stuff.  Over time they many Japanese companies improved the quality of their offerings . . . and this improved the reputation of Japanese made goods.

Right now, every market is flooded with cheap Chinese made garbage.  There are a few Chinese companies who make high quality things (and there are many, many more who are capable of doing so) but it doesn't seem to be much of a priority.  As long as we're constantly looking for a more cost effective widget, Chinese businesses will continue to make the greatest cost cutting moves to produce that widget.  Which inevitably results in a cheaper but worse quality product.  Hence the reputation.  It's a reputation that's supported and reinforced by North American consumer demand.  If demand changes, the market will adapt and then higher quality products will be associated with Chinese brands leading to a better image for Chinese manufacturing as a whole.

Yes and no.

What you say about Japanese goods is mostly true, except there was a generational lag between when they started producing top quality stuff and when they were viewed as being able to do so.

Same appears to be true now with China, who have already manufactured a wide range of things which rival their western counterparts in quality and durability. Some of the most technologically advanced projects ever are in China, built and conceived domestically. But mostly when it’s “cheap Chinese junk” it’s because that was what an oversees company demanded: lowest COG with a pretty sloppy tolerance. We want a million widgets for half the cost of whatever we can produce them for domestically, and China complies.

[pecunia]

Minor Aside - The item of rare Earth Elements came up.  The tale I've heard is that they are not really rare.  The thing is that they often occur with Thorium.  Of course the US is batshit crazy scared of anything that is even slightly radioactive so mining rare Earth materials is made artificially difficult.

China takes a more pragmatic approach and mines the rare Earths for us.  Here's what Mr. Internet told me:

"Rare earths are not rare. They're in fact quite common. The ones that we use the most are as common as copper or lead, and in fact you can find them on every continent, and on the ocean floor, and they're also in our technologies around us."

"Their importance and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions has led to the designation of all the rare earth elements as “critical minerals” by the USGS . Rare earth minerals are processed primarily from ores and minerals that also naturally contain uranium and thorium.Jul 21, 2023"

The Thorium thing would give a double whammy.  The rare Earth metals could be used in electric cars, jet planes, windmills, etc and save weight.  This is said to be environmentally friendly.  The Thorium could produce emission free energy for longer than any of us will be alive and maybe longer than our great grandchildren will be alive.  It's just a thought.

[GuitarStv]

Japanese and Korean cars are fine but Chinese cars are not?  That's ... odd.

There’s a persistent belief among people in the US that Chinese can only produce products of inferior quality. A generation or two ago it was Japan, though they’ve moved all the way from perceived junk to perceived top quality (eg Toyota, Canon/Nikon).
(https://youtu.be/VhxkjUwERvE?si=B1s8esAkliEsEaz_

Of course there’s still the question of how China treats its workers and the environment relative to Japan and Korea, but that’s a much lower motivating factor to most US consumers than “China makes junk”

I think that it's very easy to overlook where those beliefs come/came from.  Post WWII Japanese made stuff was largely cheaply made junk.  It wasn't well designed, it broke easily.  So they gained a reputation for producing cheap junk and folks didn't want to touch their stuff.  Over time they many Japanese companies improved the quality of their offerings . . . and this improved the reputation of Japanese made goods.

Right now, every market is flooded with cheap Chinese made garbage.  There are a few Chinese companies who make high quality things (and there are many, many more who are capable of doing so) but it doesn't seem to be much of a priority.  As long as we're constantly looking for a more cost effective widget, Chinese businesses will continue to make the greatest cost cutting moves to produce that widget.  Which inevitably results in a cheaper but worse quality product.  Hence the reputation.  It's a reputation that's supported and reinforced by North American consumer demand.  If demand changes, the market will adapt and then higher quality products will be associated with Chinese brands leading to a better image for Chinese manufacturing as a whole.

Yes and no.

What you say about Japanese goods is mostly true, except there was a generational lag between when they started producing top quality stuff and when they were viewed as being able to do so.

Same appears to be true now with China, who have already manufactured a wide range of things which rival their western counterparts in quality and durability. Some of the most technologically advanced projects ever are in China, built and conceived domestically. But mostly when it’s “cheap Chinese junk” it’s because that was what an oversees company demanded: lowest COG with a pretty sloppy tolerance. We want a million widgets for half the cost of whatever we can produce them for domestically, and China complies.

Generational lag makes sense I think.  It takes quite a while to change reputation (that is of course why branding exists at all) - nothing really to do with country.  I'd expect it would take at least a generation for McDonald's to convert itself from a chain of fast food joints into an extremely pricey and high end steak house selling only the finest dry aged Wagyu.  A year after McDonald's makes the switch I'd certainly be suspicious of blowing 400$ on a meal for two there.

China makes boatloads of stuff per demand.  As long as we've got dollar stores, grocery stores, and a billion retailers on amazon selling the cheapest cut rate stuff direct from China it's going to be hard to shake the 'cheap Chinese made garbage' label.  People remember what they're exposed to regularly.

[pecunia]

The Bolt is a good practical car, but it's still just another SUV.

The Bolt isn't an SUV. It's smaller in most exterior dimensions than a Focus Hatchback that you often speak fondly of, while simultaneously offering more interior space:

2017 Focus hatchback dimensions:
Wheelbase (inches)- 104.3
Length (inches)- 171.6
Width, without mirrors (inches)- 71.8
Height (inches)- 57.7
Front Track Width (inches)- 61.2
Rear Track Width (inches)- 60.4
Minimum Ground Clearance (inches)- NA

Passenger / Seating Capacity- 5
Total Passenger Volume (cubic feet)- 90.7
Front Head Room (inches)- 38.3
Front Leg Room (inches)- 41.9
Front Shoulder Room (inches)- 55.6
Front Hip Room (inches)- 53.9
Second Row Head Room (inches)- 37.9
Second Row Leg Room (inches)- 33.2
Second Row Shoulder Room (inches)- 53.7
Second Row Hip Room (inches)- 52.7

Chevy Bolt dimensions:
Wheelbase (inches)- 102.4
Length (inches)- 163.2
Width, without mirrors (inches)- 69.5
Height (inches)- 63.4
Front Track Width (inches)- 59.1
Rear Track Width (inches)- 59.1
Minimum Ground Clearance (inches)- 5.35

Passenger / Seating Capacity- 5
Total Passenger Volume (cubic feet)- 93.9
Front Head Room (inches)- 40.1
Front Leg Room (inches)- 44.3
Front Shoulder Room (inches)- 54.6
Front Hip Room (inches)- 51.3
Second Row Head Room (inches)- 37.87
Second Row Leg Room (inches)- 36.01
Second Row Shoulder Room (inches)- 52.76
Second Row Hip Room (inches)- 50.63

The Bolt is narrower than the Focus, so things like shoulder and hip room are a bit tighter, but it also offers more head and leg room as a trade off.

You sure did tell me.  All these facts and figures.  I did like the Focus.  I've talked to Bolt owners.  They've liked their Bolts.

I would normally figure I had an easy five years left on my existing vehicle.  However, there are rumblings.

Mr. Internet has talked about oil shale "peaking."

"Shale well decline rates are accelerating, and production is expected to plateau or even decline soon. Upstream oil and gas companies are merging and acquiring assets to improve their long-term shale well productivity.Mar 21, 2024"

I used to believe in the peak oil thing.  Then technology came up with fracking.  Everybody kind of forgot about Mr. Hubbert and the idea of "peak oil."  Now they are talking about it again.  Some say it is coming fast as oil shale wells don't have the longevity of conventional oil deposits.

So gas prices may be expected to rise again with diminishing supplies.  (Unless we make peace with Venezuela or Canada bails us out with tar sands oil.)

Maybe, I'll be looking for a Bolt sooner than I thought.  I don't think I'll get one of the Commie Electric cars.

[dividendman]

You sure did tell me.  All these facts and figures.  I did like the Focus.  I've talked to Bolt owners.  They've liked their Bolts.

I would normally figure I had an easy five years left on my existing vehicle.  However, there are rumblings.

Mr. Internet has talked about oil shale "peaking."

"Shale well decline rates are accelerating, and production is expected to plateau or even decline soon. Upstream oil and gas companies are merging and acquiring assets to improve their long-term shale well productivity.Mar 21, 2024"

I used to believe in the peak oil thing.  Then technology came up with fracking.  Everybody kind of forgot about Mr. Hubbert and the idea of "peak oil."  Now they are talking about it again.  Some say it is coming fast as oil shale wells don't have the longevity of conventional oil deposits.

So gas prices may be expected to rise again with diminishing supplies.  (Unless we make peace with Venezuela or Canada bails us out with tar sands oil.)

Maybe, I'll be looking for a Bolt sooner than I thought.  I don't think I'll get one of the Commie Electric cars.

There isn't going to be peak anything, except maybe humanity. The WSJ leading article is how the global birthrate will fall below replacement levels soon, and then it's onwards towards zero.

I remember people talking about how the population would explode. People used to talk about peak oil a lot 20 years ago too. Nobody knows nothin'. :)