Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?

[Just Joe]

Thank you everyone.

[bill1827]

I do monitor the charging consumption of my EV and it seems to be 80-85% efficient when charging from AC.

The house lifepo4 cells seem to lose about 3% in DC-DC charge/discharge and it's reasonable to assume the same sort of loss in EV batteries.

Level 1 or Level 2 charging?

It's level 2 charger so nominally 32A at 230V. However, in the summer when it charges from PV the current will vary between 6A and 32A, depending on how much solar is available and in the winter the charging current is usually 20-25A.

[Paper Chaser]

Battery prices don't just magically drop. It takes scale. And that's not happening at nearly the rate that many people/businesses forecast. EV adoption has been growing each year, but they've existed almost exclusively in a macro environment where financing was cheap and easy. Everybody's sales slowed significantly in the latter half of last year, and now every EV maker that I can find is predicting much slower sales in 2024. Even Tesla is predicting 2024 to be worse than 2023 was, and they're the only ones that might actually have enough scale to keep $/kwh low:

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/tesla-q4-2023-results/#:~:text=Tesla%20did%20not%20specify%20any,million%20to%202.3%20million%20units.

Tesla sold 20% more EVs in Q4 than they did the year prior, and profit dropped 23% YoY. That shift is guaranteed to change plans for anybody making EVs.

I mentioned the stock prices to show that it's not a single player suffering mismanagement or a bad product. The stock prices of these companies are taking pretty significant falls because the profitability of EVs has gotten worse, and the short term forecasts don't look good.

As mentioned above, BYD is selling more full electric cars than Tesla now. Tesla is not the world, even if Musk wants to make you belive with everything he does, might it be his noring Boring company or his hyperstupid Hyperloop.

It's not only scale, but also technology.

Falling profits it also not an indicator, since they are the result of lowered sell prices. Lower prices for a good or not commonly connected to lessened demand. It doesn't matter which company sells those cars for volume of battery used.
It's simply a market doing it's thing, which is kicking out companies that cannot compete with their product. There used to be thousands of car companies (basically every village smith who wanted to go bigger and teamed up with the carriage maker). Now it's down to a few dozen of any significance. Maybe in 10 years 10 will be left.

Shrinking profit margins for EVs (indicated by major declines in share prices from EV makers) mean less incentive for companies to invest in EVs, and it means less money sloshing around for R&D and/or scaling up for large scale manufacturing. We already see this with many OEMs scaling back their EV investments. That's bad news for anybody who wants EVs to become more mainstream. And any companies that may dissolve as a result of this natural process will mean fewer EV options, which is also bad for consumers.

[Tyson]

Battery prices don't just magically drop. It takes scale. And that's not happening at nearly the rate that many people/businesses forecast. EV adoption has been growing each year, but they've existed almost exclusively in a macro environment where financing was cheap and easy. Everybody's sales slowed significantly in the latter half of last year, and now every EV maker that I can find is predicting much slower sales in 2024. Even Tesla is predicting 2024 to be worse than 2023 was, and they're the only ones that might actually have enough scale to keep $/kwh low:

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/tesla-q4-2023-results/#:~:text=Tesla%20did%20not%20specify%20any,million%20to%202.3%20million%20units.

Tesla sold 20% more EVs in Q4 than they did the year prior, and profit dropped 23% YoY. That shift is guaranteed to change plans for anybody making EVs.

I mentioned the stock prices to show that it's not a single player suffering mismanagement or a bad product. The stock prices of these companies are taking pretty significant falls because the profitability of EVs has gotten worse, and the short term forecasts don't look good.

As mentioned above, BYD is selling more full electric cars than Tesla now. Tesla is not the world, even if Musk wants to make you belive with everything he does, might it be his noring Boring company or his hyperstupid Hyperloop.

It's not only scale, but also technology.

Falling profits it also not an indicator, since they are the result of lowered sell prices. Lower prices for a good or not commonly connected to lessened demand. It doesn't matter which company sells those cars for volume of battery used.
It's simply a market doing it's thing, which is kicking out companies that cannot compete with their product. There used to be thousands of car companies (basically every village smith who wanted to go bigger and teamed up with the carriage maker). Now it's down to a few dozen of any significance. Maybe in 10 years 10 will be left.

Shrinking profit margins for EVs (indicated by major declines in share prices from EV makers) mean less incentive for companies to invest in EVs, and it means less money sloshing around for R&D and/or scaling up for large scale manufacturing. We already see this with many OEMs scaling back their EV investments. That's bad news for anybody who wants EVs to become more mainstream. And any companies that may dissolve as a result of this natural process will mean fewer EV options, which is also bad for consumers.

Tesla and BYD will happily eat up the market share these other companies leave on the table.

[dandarc]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/24/ev-market-cools-us/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0m-Qqrm3FjQMiu50aGDiDrgaokBMBaclg6Xu9OStubzLgGJviyCnwDiZw

Headline "Car shoppers aren’t electrified by electric vehicles
EV growth slows as skeptical consumers look to hybrids and plug-ins"

Has the attached image in the article. 50% annual growth in sales is apparently this big cause for concern / discussion around EVs, and the only part of the market growing faster are also vehicles that make use of electricity. Narrative around this seems kind of absurd when you look at actual numbers.

[JLee]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/24/ev-market-cools-us/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0m-Qqrm3FjQMiu50aGDiDrgaokBMBaclg6Xu9OStubzLgGJviyCnwDiZw

Headline "Car shoppers aren’t electrified by electric vehicles
EV growth slows as skeptical consumers look to hybrids and plug-ins"

Has the attached image in the article. 50% annual growth in sales is apparently this big cause for concern / discussion around EVs, and the only part of the market growing faster are also vehicles that make use of electricity. Narrative around this seems kind of absurd when you look at actual numbers.

"EVs outsold PHEVs by over 3x" isn't as click-baity of a headline, lol

[mizzourah2006]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/24/ev-market-cools-us/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0m-Qqrm3FjQMiu50aGDiDrgaokBMBaclg6Xu9OStubzLgGJviyCnwDiZw

Headline "Car shoppers aren’t electrified by electric vehicles
EV growth slows as skeptical consumers look to hybrids and plug-ins"

Has the attached image in the article. 50% annual growth in sales is apparently this big cause for concern / discussion around EVs, and the only part of the market growing faster are also vehicles that make use of electricity. Narrative around this seems kind of absurd when you look at actual numbers.

"EVs outsold PHEVs by over 3x" isn't as click-baity of a headline, lol

I also think it ignores the type of cars that were sold. I think a better breakdown would be by car type. Obviously pretty much 100% of trucks sold are going to be ICE. My guess is there are limited non-ICE options in categories that probably make up 30-45% of car sales, especially if you are looking under $60-$70k and honestly there wasn't a ton of inventory until October-December for many EVs. There were people paying $70-$75k for Tesla Model Y's at the beginning of 2023 and by the end they were down in the mid to high 40s. I was looking for something medium sized in September and in my area there were maybe 2 ID4s and no Ioniq 5s and I would have had to wait a month for a new build Model Y. Luckily I found an inventory Modely Y that met my specifications within 3 hours, but even then I had to wait 2.5 weeks. Now towards the end of the year that story was slightly different where there was more inventory build up, but that as also when rates were shooting through the roof.

[alsoknownasDean]

I have a feeling that EV sales growth will be correlated with fuel prices.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

[pecunia]

I have a feeling that EV sales growth will be correlated with fuel prices.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

Exactly - Four years ago when I bought my small SUV I briefly considered an electric car.  I looked at the price difference at that time.  I used gas at $5.00  gallon at 100,000 miles with 25 mpg.  That's $20,000.  the vehicle I bought was about $20,000 and the electrics were going for about $40K or more at that time.

Aren't EVs simpler than Internal Combustion cars?  Shouldn't an equivalent EV sell for less than an IC car?  They do seem to be approaching this.

[LennStar]

I have a feeling that EV sales growth will be correlated with fuel prices.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

Exactly - Four years ago when I bought my small SUV I briefly considered an electric car.  I looked at the price difference at that time.  I used gas at $5.00  gallon at 100,000 miles with 25 mpg.  That's $20,000.  the vehicle I bought was about $20,000 and the electrics were going for about $40K or more at that time.

Aren't EVs simpler than Internal Combustion cars?  Shouldn't an equivalent EV sell for less than an IC car?  They do seem to be approaching this.

Technically they have just now or will this year.
But that is A) an average and B) does not mean that car sellers, who have switched off small cars anyway, want to build a small EV.
There is more money to made from overpriced big and/or luxurious EVs. Thoug of course most car makers are too late in the game and now can't get up the numbers that would also allow (through coop-use of parts) make cheaper smaller cars.

Meanwhile BYDs first Ro-Ro ship has now been let to water. It is the first of 8 the company has ordered to build just for Europe alone. One transports 3000 cars. I think a roundtrip costs 6 weeks? Do the math, that are easily 100K EVs for the EU just from this BYD owned ships. How many EVs has Ford sold per year?

All of China has ordered 200 RoRos to build. For comparison: Today in the whole world 700 exist, and a lot of them are smaller or even unable to cross the high seas.

[pecunia]

I have a feeling that EV sales growth will be correlated with fuel prices.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

Exactly - Four years ago when I bought my small SUV I briefly considered an electric car.  I looked at the price difference at that time.  I used gas at $5.00  gallon at 100,000 miles with 25 mpg.  That's $20,000.  the vehicle I bought was about $20,000 and the electrics were going for about $40K or more at that time.

Aren't EVs simpler than Internal Combustion cars?  Shouldn't an equivalent EV sell for less than an IC car?  They do seem to be approaching this.

Technically they have just now or will this year.
But that is A) an average and B) does not mean that car sellers, who have switched off small cars anyway, want to build a small EV.
There is more money to made from overpriced big and/or luxurious EVs. Thoug of course most car makers are too late in the game and now can't get up the numbers that would also allow (through coop-use of parts) make cheaper smaller cars.

Meanwhile BYDs first Ro-Ro ship has now been let to water. It is the first of 8 the company has ordered to build just for Europe alone. One transports 3000 cars. I think a roundtrip costs 6 weeks? Do the math, that are easily 100K EVs for the EU just from this BYD owned ships. How many EVs has Ford sold per year?

All of China has ordered 200 RoRos to build. For comparison: Today in the whole world 700 exist, and a lot of them are smaller or even unable to cross the high seas.

Maybe these BYDs will be like my old VW air cooled Beetle.  There were a lot of them sold.  Parts were available and cheap.  The large amount of Beetle's sold supported a vast supply of secondary suppliers.  It was a little like the economy of scale.

[Just Joe]

And the Beetle continues to receive support from a variety of vendors. The support is so complete that it is possible to build a 1960s sunroof van from new parts where a van did not exist before.

I believe the same is true or almost true for certain models of Beetles. I know they are reproducing all the body panels except perhaps the roof and dash, and parts of the chassis (hump, rear suspension castings). The engines are also being reproduced including the heads, crankshaft and engine case.

That's the kind of EV I want - something that has extensive after sales support at an reasonable price so it is easy to continue driving the EV for 20+ years if wanted.

In other news our ICE hiccuped a few times over the past couple of weeks. Always returned us home but hard stalled twice w/o warning. DW and I have agreed in principle to replace it with an EV once our offspring begins university this fall, and we verify our projected spend is correct.

We've decided on a 2-3 year old Nissan Leaf Plus. It would replace a car that rarely leaves the county so the Leaf's lack of road trip capability (multiple fast charges) isn't an issue. It'll make it to the next big metro area which is an important goal for us. The bigger battery is aging well when treated well due to factors, and we would charge at home 99%+ of the time.

[pecunia]

Maybe this has been hashed over and I missed it, but it appears that Sodium Ion batteries have some advantages over Lithium Ion batteries.  There has been a lot of discussion about whether adequate lithium exists to meet the anticipated needs.  Sodium seems pretty common.

It looks like the energy density is a bit less and the longevity may also be a bit less, but this may be made up with a lower price.  Perhaps if a vehicle using a Sodium Ion battery needs to have a battery replacement, the cost could be less.

https://www.dnkpower.com/will-sodium-batteries-replace-lithium-batteries/

They are getting better.

https://www.electrive.com/2024/01/09/us-researchers-increase-energy-density-of-sodium-ion-batteries/

Maybe this will be the new Beetle.

https://electrek.co/2023/12/27/volkswagen-backed-ev-maker-first-sodium-ion-battery-electric-car/

Maybe it will be the new Edsel.

[Just Joe]

https://topelectricsuv.com/news/scout/2026-scout-electric-truck-pickup/

That looks interesting. Well, all except the pricetag. I'm too cheap for that. ;)

Internet speculation says $40K. Probably more like $50K+ b/c everyone advertises a low price version.

An electric Maverick type vehicle would be a good utility vehicle. Unsure whether the VW is larger, it looks larger. Probably just the oversize tires.

[Paper Chaser]

https://topelectricsuv.com/news/scout/2026-scout-electric-truck-pickup/

That looks interesting. Well, all except the pricetag. I'm too cheap for that. ;)

Internet speculation says $40K. Probably more like $50K+ b/c everyone advertises a low price version.

An electric Maverick type vehicle would be a good utility vehicle. Unsure whether the VW is larger, it looks larger. Probably just the oversize tires.

The Scout brand will launch with an SUV, followed by a full sized truck according to the CEO:

https://www.scoutevforum.com/forum/threads/ceo-says-scout-ev-debuts-q3-2024-suv-first-then-full-size-pickup-ground-up-unique-rugged-platform.10879/

Full size trucks are expensive. Capable full size EV trucks require huge batteries, which are more expensive. I'd guess you're looking at Ford Lightning price ranges at least. Maybe something more along the lines of Rivian's current product line.

[Just Joe]

Maybe this has been hashed over and I missed it, but it appears that Sodium Ion batteries have some advantages over Lithium Ion batteries.  There has been a lot of discussion about whether adequate lithium exists to meet the anticipated needs.  Sodium seems pretty common.

It looks like the energy density is a bit less and the longevity may also be a bit less, but this may be made up with a lower price.  Perhaps if a vehicle using a Sodium Ion battery needs to have a battery replacement, the cost could be less.

https://www.dnkpower.com/will-sodium-batteries-replace-lithium-batteries/

They are getting better.

I don't know anything besides what I read. Was interesting to read the expected progression of battery chemistries: LiNiCo batteries ->  LFP (and some of the LFPM for high performance vehicles) -> sodium ion

2000 charge cycles so at its best, that is 600K miles. Or many years as second life batteries. 

To the casual consumer, EVs seem to the same as they have always been - lithium ion - while in fact, interesting chemistry developments are continuing.

[pecunia]

Some articles say China is flooding the world with electric vehicles.

https://www.axios.com/2023/12/02/electric-cars-us-policy-chinese-imports-prices

The Chinese economy is Socialist.  The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the folks they have running the country don't have to behave according to the same rules as dog eat dog Capitalist countries.  They can build stuff at a loss.  While they may lose a little money, this also does some good things for the country.

(1) It keeps people working.  Loss of jobs in an area can quickly create the equivalent of a Chinese Rust Belt.  All the advantages of a thriving workforce can be maintained.  Well, at least for a while.

(2) The EV market is kind of new. Now is the time to take market share.  The competition will melt away with less market share.  Japanese and Korean car makers have essentially driven the US car makers out of producing sedans and economy cars.  Maybe, China could do the same thing by selling the electric cars that would be deemed the most practical for most people.  I think they would leave the monster electric truck sales to others.

I guess they've been building a lot of car carriers recently to ship out large amounts of cars.  Could this be their plan?  If they cornered the electric car market now, they could possibly hold it for a generation and wealth would flow to China.

[Just Joe]

Just popping in to say that no, we haven't bought an EV yet. We will I think. I've been shopping. We know what we want now.

Also to say - don't people buy cars that aren't somewhere on the grey-scale anymore? ;) Seriously!

[RWD]

Also to say - don't people buy cars that aren't somewhere on the grey-scale anymore? ;) Seriously!

Yeah, it's so depressing. You can have a car in white, silver, ash, grey, slate, charcoal, or black. Or maybe blue or red if you're really lucky. People are so boring.

[tj]

Does anyone here have an EV who lives in a condo or apartments without ability to add a charger and who doesn't work at a place with a charger? I'm curious what that lifestyle would look like, it seems like one would have to go out of their way to take their car somewhere to charge and wait around.

[neo von retorch]

GM 2024 strategy: Chevy Bolt revival shows commitment to affordable EVs
(Archive link: https://archive.is/JMFHR)

That's why GM decided to bring back the Chevrolet Bolt EV rather than follow an earlier plan to develop a separate lower-cost EV platform. Reviving the Bolt nameplate in 2025, after discontinuing the first generation last year, will save billions of dollars, Jacobson said.

Here's to seeing if GM succeeds on one of its ambitious goals.

[bacchi]

Just popping in to say that no, we haven't bought an EV yet. We will I think. I've been shopping. We know what we want now.

We've been looking too. We resigned ourselves to the fact that we won't be able to use the EV point-of-sale program because dealers think it's a risk (costing us ~$1500) but now we've found that a lot of dealers won't even register and fill out the online form. No form, no VIN registration, no tax credit when we file next year.

[jrhampt]

Just popping in to say that no, we haven't bought an EV yet. We will I think. I've been shopping. We know what we want now.

We've been looking too. We resigned ourselves to the fact that we won't be able to use the EV point-of-sale program because dealers think it's a risk (costing us ~$1500) but now we've found that a lot of dealers won't even register and fill out the online form. No form, no VIN registration, no tax credit when we file next year.

What's their reasoning on this??  Do they not want to sell these cars?

[bacchi]

Just popping in to say that no, we haven't bought an EV yet. We will I think. I've been shopping. We know what we want now.

We've been looking too. We resigned ourselves to the fact that we won't be able to use the EV point-of-sale program because dealers think it's a risk (costing us ~$1500) but now we've found that a lot of dealers won't even register and fill out the online form. No form, no VIN registration, no tax credit when we file next year.

What's their reasoning on this??  Do they not want to sell these cars?

"We won't do your taxes."

I think it's ignorance and arrogance. Ignorance because they don't understand the credit ("That's for new EVs only!") and arrogance because the finance managers refuse to look at the IRS site/pamphlet I send them. I'm beginning to think that dealer managers are a perfect example of the Peter Principle.

And you're right because the cars are sitting on the lot. We would've bought a particular EV for near $25k but it's now being sold for $24k two months later. I just called the dealer back to ask them if they'd now consider signing up. Salesperson: "Yeah, a lot of people are asking about that."

[nereo]

Just popping in to say that no, we haven't bought an EV yet. We will I think. I've been shopping. We know what we want now.

We've been looking too. We resigned ourselves to the fact that we won't be able to use the EV point-of-sale program because dealers think it's a risk (costing us ~$1500) but now we've found that a lot of dealers won't even register and fill out the online form. No form, no VIN registration, no tax credit when we file next year.

What's their reasoning on this??  Do they not want to sell these cars?

"We won't do your taxes."

I think it's ignorance and arrogance. Ignorance because they don't understand the credit ("That's for new EVs only!") and arrogance because the finance managers refuse to look at the IRS site/pamphlet I send them. I'm beginning to think that dealer managers are a perfect example of the Peter Principle.

And you're right because the cars are sitting on the lot. We would've bought a particular EV for near $25k but it's now being sold for $24k two months later. I just called the dealer back to ask them if they'd now consider signing up. Salesperson: "Yeah, a lot of people are asking about that."

We ran into this as well - in fact it caused an additional week delay before we took delivery because we refused to sign until they did the forms correctly.  For us it was a double-whammy as we had bother a federal and a state tax credit.

[GuitarStv]

Also to say - don't people buy cars that aren't somewhere on the grey-scale anymore? ;) Seriously!

Yeah, it's so depressing. You can have a car in white, silver, ash, grey, slate, charcoal, or black. Or maybe blue or red if you're really lucky. People are so boring.

Yep.  Car colours all suck.  But I'm not sure if the car colours suck because of customer demand or dealer pre-orders and what they stock on the lot.

The last time we went to buy a car at the dealer, they had two different shades of grey, silver, and red.  But they didn't have any red on the lot and wanted to charge a fee to get one.  So we ended up buying a silver car, when really we would have been far happier with purpler, green, light blue, orange, or any fun colour.

[LennStar]

Personally I would like to drive a car either yellow with red dots (visibility is a shared responsibility) or blue-red-yellow striped, though I am not sure about the latter. You can make beautiful football (not handegg) tricots with this color scheme, but I have never seen it on cars, not even simulated.

[Just Joe]

Just "built" a Nissan Leaf SV online. SL series discontinued.

$38K for this car... I like the Leaf. We're leaning towards a used Leaf. $38K when there are so many alternatives with watercooled batteries and a non-CHADEMO fast charger port?

Also: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128891_nissan-s-move-to-ccs-fast-charging-makes-chademo-a-legacy-standard

Fortunately: https://www.autoblog.com/2024/02/06/chademo-ccs-charging-adapter-nissan-leaf/

Unfortunately: The adapter is $1100 from China direct or $1300 from a domestic online store.

In use: https://youtu.be/wydql2N_F-k

Feels SO much like the VHS vs Betamax war of my youth. Or DP vs HDMI. Or a dozen other technology "wars".

[AccidentialMustache]

Yeah 38k is a total non-starter for the leaf. I mean heck you could get a very lightly used Ariya for less than that. Longer range, faster charging, larger (probably a minus, tbh). Too bad the Ariya seems to be a kinda phoned it in product.

A used bolt is close to half the cost of the leaf and has longer range, just as fast charging (but a bigger pack so it'd take longer to get full) and very similar in size/etc.

And the bolt came in orange, if you can find one. But I can tell you from experience people will still not see it despite the color and still hit your car, because they've done that to our orange fit (both while parked and while stopped at a light).

[Paper Chaser]

Just "built" a Nissan Leaf SV online. SL series discontinued.

$38K for this car... I like the Leaf. We're leaning towards a used Leaf. $38K when there are so many alternatives with watercooled batteries and a non-CHADEMO fast charger port?

Also: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128891_nissan-s-move-to-ccs-fast-charging-makes-chademo-a-legacy-standard

Fortunately: https://www.autoblog.com/2024/02/06/chademo-ccs-charging-adapter-nissan-leaf/

Unfortunately: The adapter is $1100 from China direct or $1300 from a domestic online store.

In use: https://youtu.be/wydql2N_F-k

Feels SO much like the VHS vs Betamax war of my youth. Or DP vs HDMI. Or a dozen other technology "wars".

$41k gets you the Ariya in the same showroom after recent price cuts. It has a liquid cooled battery, 216 miles of range, and CCS charge port. Not saying it's the best option, but anybody paying $38k for a Leaf is nuts.

[2sk22]

The recently updated Hyundai Ionia 5 is finally looking like an EV that I could go for. Hyundai has added a wiper for the rear window and physical buttons for controls. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a60075240/2025-hyundai-ioniq-5-update/

[LennStar]

You dont need a wiper for the rear window, you can't look through it anyway.
Why do they all have that shitty form? You cant look out to the back and the back one cant look through it to see the traffic ahead in stop&go for example.

[nereo]

You dont need a wiper for the rear window, you can't look through it anyway.
Why do they all have that shitty form? You cant look out to the back and the back one cant look through it to see the traffic ahead in stop&go for example.

That hasn’t been my experience. While there are vehicles with better rear-view visibility, the rear window in the Ioniq5 is definitely adequate enough to see objects through the rear view mirror. The utility of a rear wiper is apparent using the winter months when they apply salt to the roads fairly heavily in our region. Without it the windows quickly get covered in grime. That’s also my biggest beef with rear view cameras which are otherwise amazing in these newer models. - in the winter when the roads are wet and covered in salt and grit.

[pecunia]

In my area gas took a price jump.  I would guess when gas jumps to a higher price, more people consider electric cars.  The thought crossed my head as I purchased my gallon and a half this week.  I kind of like the idea that with electric cars the fuel price is regulated.

What kind of correlation is there?

[Just Joe]

Yeah 38k is a total non-starter for the leaf. I mean heck you could get a very lightly used Ariya for less than that. Longer range, faster charging, larger (probably a minus, tbh). Too bad the Ariya seems to be a kinda phoned it in product.

A used bolt is close to half the cost of the leaf and has longer range, just as fast charging (but a bigger pack so it'd take longer to get full) and very similar in size/etc.

And the bolt came in orange, if you can find one. But I can tell you from experience people will still not see it despite the color and still hit your car, because they've done that to our orange fit (both while parked and while stopped at a light).

Used Leafs and used Bolts can be had for similar prices. I wish I liked the Bolt more. Just an aesthetic thing. The battery cooling is certain better on the Bolt but not that relevant for our use profile.

I like that the Leaf has 10+ years of EV and battery performance data on the interweb.

[AccidentialMustache]

I wish I liked the Bolt more. Just an aesthetic thing.

It was interior comfort for us. DW didn't like the seat, and I didn't like the center armrest. Which is a real pity because I'm all down with the looks and form factor. It is pretty much an electric honda fit!

[Just Joe]

Yeah, the front seats in the car I sat in were not as comfortable as I wish. Still, our use profile means we would rarely be in it for very long unless we drove it out of town for a concert or one of us went to help our parents.

[GilesMM]

According to Barron's:



Toyota appears to be winning from a decision to take it slow in the world of battery-electric vehicles. Shares are near a record and profit margins in 2023 came in at around 11%, about 2 percentage points better than Tesla’s.

Toyota North American CEO Ted Ogawa took a victory lap recently, saying his company would rather buy emissions credits to satisfy regulations than “waste money” on EVs. He also suggested that EVs would account for about 30% of U.S. car sales by the end of the decade, far short of the federal government’s goal of about 60%.

[neo von retorch]

According to Barron's:

Toyota appears to be winning from a decision to take it slow in the world of battery-electric vehicles. Shares are near a record and profit margins in 2023 came in at around 11%, about 2 percentage points better than Tesla’s.

Toyota North American CEO Ted Ogawa took a victory lap recently, saying his company would rather buy emissions credits to satisfy regulations than “waste money” on EVs. He also suggested that EVs would account for about 30% of U.S. car sales by the end of the decade, far short of the federal government’s goal of about 60%.

I wonder where some sites get their information. Or just define things very differently...
https://finbox.com/NYSE:TM/explorer/gp_margin/ (~17-19%)

https://ycharts.com/companies/TM/profit_margin (11%)
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/gross_profit_margin (17%)

Tesla was so interesting because they lost money for a bit over a decade... then had exemplary profit margins. They have slid recently and are starting to look more like traditional automotive companies. But generally still meaningfully better.

See https://ycharts.com/companies/GM/gross_profit_margin (7.7% in most recent quarter).

[Just Joe]

Did Toyota read the crystal ball better than anyone else?

Did they foresee a limit to how many expensive cars people could/would buy?
Or are they just stubbornly married to big oil and making excuses?
Or?

[soulpatchmike]

Did Toyota read the crystal ball better than anyone else?

Did they foresee a limit to how many expensive cars people could/would buy?
Or are they just stubbornly married to big oil and making excuses?
Or?

The co-CEOs of RIM doubled down in 2007 that the market needs a physical keyboard on the blackberry, while apple was just hoping to sell 1 million phones(<1%TAM) in that first year of the iPhone.  By the time RIM shifted towards a new OS and touch screen strategy in 2012 it was too late and leadership was pushed out.  It took ~5 years for RIM to realize they were no longer the king of the smartphone hill and by then it was too late to recover their former glory.  In 2018, the last blackberry was released and its support ended in 2022.  15 years from owning ~20%of the global market(~43%in US) for smart phones to exiting the market entirely.

Pride goeth before a fall.   Good luck to Kōji Satō and Akio Toyoda.  Does anyone know of a corded power tool company that said,"ehhh...nope, not going to waste money on a battery powered version, batteries suck and are too expensive."

[Just Joe]

Which power tool company was that? (Good post).

[bacchi]

According to Barron's:

Toyota appears to be winning from a decision to take it slow in the world of battery-electric vehicles. Shares are near a record and profit margins in 2023 came in at around 11%, about 2 percentage points better than Tesla’s.

Toyota North American CEO Ted Ogawa took a victory lap recently, saying his company would rather buy emissions credits to satisfy regulations than “waste money” on EVs. He also suggested that EVs would account for about 30% of U.S. car sales by the end of the decade, far short of the federal government’s goal of about 60%.

I wonder where some sites get their information. Or just define things very differently...
https://finbox.com/NYSE:TM/explorer/gp_margin/ (~17-19%)

https://ycharts.com/companies/TM/profit_margin (11%)
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/gross_profit_margin (17%)

Tesla was so interesting because they lost money for a bit over a decade... then had exemplary profit margins. They have slid recently and are starting to look more like traditional automotive companies. But generally still meaningfully better.

See https://ycharts.com/companies/GM/gross_profit_margin (7.7% in most recent quarter).

There are multiple types of "profit margins." TM's GAAP operating profit margin is higher than Tesla's.

Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla will have a losing quarter this year. Interest rates, the EV growth slowdown, competition, and lack of new models caught up with them.

[neo von retorch]

Oops - I was mixing and matching different measurements:

Gross Profit Margin
https://ycharts.com/companies/TM/gross_profit_margin (22%)
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/gross_profit_margin (17%)
https://ycharts.com/companies/GM/gross_profit_margin (7.7%)

Profit Margin
https://ycharts.com/companies/TM/profit_margin (11%)
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/profit_margin (32%) - a big jump here from a previous value of 8%
https://ycharts.com/companies/GM/profit_margin (5%)

[dandarc]

How do you get a gross profit margin of 17% and net profit margin of 32%? That doesn't track.

Answering my own question: Apparently they have a $5.7 Billion tax benefit attributable to the quarter. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials

https://apnews.com/article/tesla-net-income-tax-benefit-2ec1c6ef1b3111fd765a69c2ec310835

So a one-time tax benefit - the 17% figure is the more meaningful one of Tesla's numbers.

[neo von retorch]

the 17% figure is the more meaningful one of Tesla's numbers.

And if you follow the previous numbers from March 2022 through September 2023 you might infer a trajectory into the low single digits for profit margin. Average is also 7.6%, compared to Toyota (8.1%) and GM (5.8%).

[dandarc]

the 17% figure is the more meaningful one of Tesla's numbers.

And if you follow the previous numbers from March 2022 through September 2023 you might infer a trajectory into the low single digits for profit margin. Average is also 7.6%, compared to Toyota (8.1%) and GM (5.8%).

Looks like Tesla got big enough that they're getting more "well established car manufacturer" numbers.

[Just Joe]

Tip for used car hunters - you can copy the VIN number from online listings and use a search engine to look for it elsewhere. The price can vary. For the car I was looking at - it is listed for a higher price on one retail site (dealer) and several hundred dollars less on another (AutoTrader). And just now found it on a third website for several hundred less again (CarZing)

Sure, that savings was worth the trouble of searching for 30 seconds. ;)

Chase the VIN number!

I found it again on CarFax (for free) that the car was originally sold in CA, and eventually MI, and now closer to me. Perhaps a Carvana/CarMax car?

It was repurchased by Nissan as a lemon in CA b/c the entertainment system in the car repeatedly goes dark. Not sure whether that was connected to a general recall I found for chaffing rear camera wiring that causes the backup camera to go dark or show a low quality picture. In other words was this problem resolved or would it be an gremlin that would haunt us?

I could see what the cost of a used replacement entertainment system is - and negotiate a price well below that. No problem is unsolvable. I'm an engineer. ;)

The search continues. I prefer a car that wasn't sold all over the country. The "perfect" car popped up last night but has the smaller battery. Won't do. Only a Plus will do.

[mizzourah2006]

Took the Sorento PHEV on the kids hockey trip this past weekend. I love my Tesla, but the PHEV might really be the perfect car. We've never been to OKC before and were staying overnight and the team booked the hotel, which had no chargers. We still got ~33 MPG and we didn't have to worry about finding the chargers in Tulsa and OKC. It probably wouldn't have been too difficult, but just knowing that we didn't have to eased our minds. Plus, I think paying for gas at $2.95/gallon may have actually been cheaper at 33 MPG than paying for a supercharger. If we had charged to 100% at home that would have been about $8 for the Tesla and $1.50 for the Sorento. We likely would have had to put charge for about 120 kWh on the trip at $0.36, which would have been ~$43, so the trip in the Tesla would have cost us about $51 and the trip in the Sorento cost us about $48.

Just reinforces that BEVs are cheaper, but only if you are almost exclusively charging at home. If you are using superchargers a hybrid will almost always be more efficient cost wise with gas under $4/gallon at least where I'm at. The only downside of the PHEV is that in order to use heat it has to turn on the engine and my wife is always cold, which means she uses gas in the winter even if she doesn't need to to actually drive. But that's only about ~4 months out of the year here.

[Paper Chaser]

the 17% figure is the more meaningful one of Tesla's numbers.

And if you follow the previous numbers from March 2022 through September 2023 you might infer a trajectory into the low single digits for profit margin. Average is also 7.6%, compared to Toyota (8.1%) and GM (5.8%).

Looks like Tesla got big enough that they're getting more "well established car manufacturer" numbers.

With higher rates and more competition, they seem to be changing strategy a bit as well. I've seen official Tesla advertisements recently on youtube, and they've historically eschewed any marketing.