Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?

[neo von retorch]

Lately the news if full of articles on the slow in EV sales (and/or the catch-up and overtaking of production levels) such that they are piling up in lots, unsold, while ICEs fly off the shelves.  E.g. https://jalopnik.com/ford-mustang-mach-e-dealers-ev-too-much-inventory-1850632717

Have we hit saturation of the US EV market?  Are vehicle costs, range and charging concerns, and general unfamiliarity with new things going to stall out EV sales?

While the article mentions the Maverick, do you have other sources for the ICE sales rate over time?

The Maverick is a $20-30k vehicle, while the Mach-E are $50-70k vehicles. Given inflation scares and big jumps in interest rates, car payments on $60k vehicles are going to look a bit more daunting. I guess the bigger question is - how well are Tesla Model Y in the ~$60k price range selling in the U.S. in 2023? Have they slowed down? If it's just Ford... why?

Our local dealer has eight unsold Mach-E, starting at $56k for a 250 mile range AWD and going up to $67k for a GT w/ extended range and "upgraded" eAWD.

[lemonlyman]

Lately the news if full of articles on the slow in EV sales (and/or the catch-up and overtaking of production levels) such that they are piling up in lots, unsold, while ICEs fly off the shelves.  E.g. https://jalopnik.com/ford-mustang-mach-e-dealers-ev-too-much-inventory-1850632717


Have we hit saturation of the US EV market?  Are vehicle costs, range and charging concerns, and general unfamiliarity with new things going to stall out EV sales?


Thoughts?

That's a Mach E problem more than an EV problem. Chevy Bolt is way up and Tesla is way up.
Mach E YTD 2022: 17,675
Mach E YTD 2023: 14,040

Telsa Y YTD 2022: 107,999
Telsa Y YTD 2023: 190,499
76% sales increase in 2023. Model Y has sold like 20x more than Ford's Mach E unit decrease.

I think the EV market will still continue to grow. In 2024, US EV tax credit can be applied at point of sale. Right now a $55k vehicle payment is ~$100mth more today than it was in 2021 because of interest rates. When the tax credit can be applied at point of sale, that will make more attractive car payments for people especially if the Fed changes course next year and cuts.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2023-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/

[neo von retorch]

Yes, this sounds like a mix of two things:

Tesla Model Y has "fixed" prices, and they have moved their pricing back to pre-pandemic levels⁰.

Meanwhile, Ford dealers leveraged the demand and low supply to apply massive mark-ups¹².

If the poor Ford dealers don't want $55k+ cars to sit on their lots, they might have to take a radical new approach. Sell them at or below MSRP!

⁰ https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/12iht6y/tesla_car_price_history_see_tabs_for_different/
¹ https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/dealer-markup.26919/
² https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/experience-with-dealer-markup.18602/

[geekette]

I've been watching our local Kia dealership's listings for the Niro EV.  They have gone from full price to $2k off, to $2,500 off plus either another $3750 off or 1.49% financing.  I haven't set foot in the dealership, so who knows if they actually have any of the 8 listed on the lot.

One hybrid Niro listed, but no PHEVs have been listed since I started trolling.

I've seen 2 Rivian trucks in the area, and a couple Mach-Es and about a thousand Teslas, including a bright yellow and a matte burgundy trying to stand out from the rest of the lookalikes.

Niro EV Wind (base level) and Tesla Model 3 are about the same MSRP before the tax credit, and the Niro doesn't qualify for the credit.

Since we spend about $600 a year on gas for our 14 year old 23mpg HHR, it makes no sense to buy electric, but I sure want to.

For me, it's the cost differential, especially since I don't drive much. 

[GilesMM]

Lately the news if full of articles on the slow in EV sales (and/or the catch-up and overtaking of production levels) such that they are piling up in lots, unsold, while ICEs fly off the shelves.  E.g. https://jalopnik.com/ford-mustang-mach-e-dealers-ev-too-much-inventory-1850632717


Have we hit saturation of the US EV market?  Are vehicle costs, range and charging concerns, and general unfamiliarity with new things going to stall out EV sales?


Thoughts?

That's a Mach E problem more than an EV problem. Chevy Bolt is way up and Tesla is way up.
Mach E YTD 2022: 17,675
Mach E YTD 2023: 14,040

Telsa Y YTD 2022: 107,999
Telsa Y YTD 2023: 190,499
76% sales increase in 2023. Model Y has sold like 20x more than Ford's Mach E unit decrease.

I think the EV market will still continue to grow. In 2024, US EV tax credit can be applied at point of sale. Right now a $55k vehicle payment is ~$100mth more today than it was in 2021 because of interest rates. When the tax credit can be applied at point of sale, that will make more attractive car payments for people especially if the Fed changes course next year and cuts.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2023-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/

Apparently it is not just a Ford problem, but also a Hyundai, GM and Toyota problem as well and one which is skewed toward EV sales, not ICE.  [size=78%]https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/slow-selling-evs-are-auto-industrys-new-headache-2023-07-11/[/size]


I am very curious about the F150 Lightning, which was such an exciting announcement given the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the world.  The range, especially when towing, is dismal and this is hurting sales. 

[Paper Chaser]

Apparently it is not just a Ford problem, but also a Hyundai, GM and Toyota problem as well and one which is skewed toward EV sales, not ICE.  [size=78%]https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/slow-selling-evs-are-auto-industrys-new-headache-2023-07-11/[/size]


I am very curious about the F150 Lightning, which was such an exciting announcement given the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the world.  The range, especially when towing, is dismal and this is hurting sales.

Lightning sales were up 4.1% in Q2 compared to Q1, and 119% YoY:

https://www.teslarati.com/ford-f-150-lighning-sales-q2-2023/

And that's after every trim level has seen around $20k in price hikes since the initial release.

Towing range being cut in half is not unique to the Lightning, or even EVs. Teslas and Rivians and the new Silverado EV all suffer similar range cuts. ICE equivalents do too, it's just that it's fast and easy to refill a liquid fuel tank vs charging a huge EV battery.

[AccidentialMustache]

The tax credit situation is not helping the MME, as it is only half-credit. Tesla is full credit and dropped their prices to hammer the competition. Kinda the expected result.

Ford's problem is they made a halo car (MME) and now can't play pricing games like Tesla can with their "mid-range" car (the S and X being halo).

[2sk22]

I've been watching our local Kia dealership's listings for the Niro EV.  They have gone from full price to $2k off, to $2,500 off plus either another $3750 off or 1.49% financing.  I haven't set foot in the dealership, so who knows if they actually have any of the 8 listed on the lot.

One hybrid Niro listed, but no PHEVs have been listed since I started trolling.

I've seen 2 Rivian trucks in the area, and a couple Mach-Es and about a thousand Teslas, including a bright yellow and a matte burgundy trying to stand out from the rest of the lookalikes.

Niro EV Wind (base level) and Tesla Model 3 are about the same MSRP before the tax credit, and the Niro doesn't qualify for the credit.

Since we spend about $600 a year on gas for our 14 year old 23mpg HHR, it makes no sense to buy electric, but I sure want to.

For me, it's the cost differential, especially since I don't drive much.

I am in a very similar situation as I have posted previously. I am retired and don't drive much and have a new car (Honda CR-V) that serves my limited needs perfectly. My wife drives to work a few days a week in her relatively new Camry Hybrid which doesn't use much gas. I am not in a hurry to buy an EV until I have to but I do like to keep an eye on what is available.

This article summarizes the situation nicely: https://www.thedrive.com/news/were-finally-crossing-the-chasm-with-electric-vehicles

I have generally been an early adopter for most technology products. I had a high-speed DSL line and WiFi network in my house by mid 2000 and I bought an iPhone 4 in August 2010. When it comes  to EVs however, circumstances have conspired to make me a relatively late adopter. I feel absolutely no FOMO - I am perfectly content to wait for a few years until the EV offerings and charging infrastructure improve.

[GilesMM]

Apparently it is not just a Ford problem, but also a Hyundai, GM and Toyota problem as well and one which is skewed toward EV sales, not ICE.  [size=78%]https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/slow-selling-evs-are-auto-industrys-new-headache-2023-07-11/[/size]


I am very curious about the F150 Lightning, which was such an exciting announcement given the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the world.  The range, especially when towing, is dismal and this is hurting sales.

Lightning sales were up 4.1% in Q2 compared to Q1, and 119% YoY:

https://www.teslarati.com/ford-f-150-lighning-sales-q2-2023/

And that's after every trim level has seen around $20k in price hikes since the initial release.

Towing range being cut in half is not unique to the Lightning, or even EVs. Teslas and Rivians and the new Silverado EV all suffer similar range cuts. ICE equivalents do too, it's just that it's fast and easy to refill a liquid fuel tank vs charging a huge EV battery.

But Lightning sales fell 22% in June, oddly, while production ramped up so inventories are like 90 days now.  Ford will be cutting prices soon, no doubt.

[neo von retorch]

Total conjecture, but I kind of wonder if consumers are a bit scared off by the charging port developments. In other words, what the heck, if I buy a Ford this week, is it going to be obsolete soon? Obviously we know you can use adapters, but a part of purchase decisions is the irrational element, the desires... and the fears. And maybe people are afraid using an adapter for most of their EV's life will be a real pain in the butt. (And again, we know that most charging would be at home and you wouldn't need an adapter, but EV decisions seem to lean into charging on the road in a big way - which is why the Bolt has died an untimely death.)

But I really think it's a drying up of people willing to throw easy (cheap) money at dealers with stupid markup. Meanwhile, Tesla has dropped prices significantly, and is (largely) the only one selling more. So there could be something to the "early adopter" chasm theory above - early adopters take risks trying something new, and spend more doing it.

[jinga nation]

This article summarizes the situation nicely: https://www.thedrive.com/news/were-finally-crossing-the-chasm-with-electric-vehicles

I'm glad the classic chasm crossing curve is being applied to EVs.

Everyone I know personally with a Tesla Model 3 or Y picked that over a Japanese/European luxury model. These are folks who have 2/3 car garages and have the Tesla Wall Connector wired to a 60A breaker on a 240V supply. A few neighbors have the F150 Lightning, Hyundai/Kia EVs, and VW ID.4. From my conversations with them, it seems that they all use home charging and rarely ever go looking for a network charger. They only use a charger if there's one at the restaurant/store they're patronizing. So primary use is commuter/local run around.

If demand outstrips supply, forcing price drops, that's a good thing for EV adoption. And the connector convergence to NACS stateside may bring mergers of charging networks to compete against Tesla. (I've seen too many ChargePoints out of order in my area, and notifying them is pointless, they don't do anything.) @neo von retorch That's what I've heard in my workplace and gym and parties, people want to get EVs but the very recent charging port changes are delaying purchases until the EVs with NACS are rolled out.

Local dealers are still asking stupid markups on EVs, as if they're Faberge eggs. Stupid AF but oversupply may bite their ass.

I'm sad on GM killing off the current Bolt EV and EUV. I hope it comes back on the new Zenith platform with the NACS connector. The Bolt is a fun zippy city car but impractical for family use in suburbia, IMHO. It could benefit from having charging points displayed in the user interface and alerting driver if range is low and to go to a (working) charge point along the route.

Also, having robust discussions of EVs on non-automotive enthusiast forums means EVs have entered the mainstream mindset. Maybe we're close to crossing the chasm.

[joemandadman189]

Recently on sort of a whim i test drove a Tesla Model Y. i recently bought a new RAM 1500 and i hate it, terrible truck, even though consumer reports rated them the best. Anyway i wanted a electric truck to start with but the Lightning or rivian are $75k+, so no go there. The Model Y was the first EV i have ever driven, long range - AWD, and it blew my mind. Like literally it felt like being in the future and what all new cars should be. the biggest thing for me was the safety stuff - if you havent ever driven one there is a setting where the infotainment system shows your car and with sonar or cameras knows where all other cars and traffic cones are around you, when you switch lanes there is a rear camera that pops up to show you whats behind you on that side. The fit and finish were excellent and the acceleration was insane - and it wasnt a performance even - just crazy. After the test drive the sales guys asked me how it went, i said it was an eye opening experience, like paradigm breaking, life changing experience. ICE cars can be fun but electric is unreal and the tech that the brand new cars have is other worldly.  I think if everyone had the chance to drive one, just giving them a chance, they would also be blown away.

I didnt trade in my truck on the spot as i have some weird stuff happening over the next few months and need a truck but i will absolutely be considering trading the truck for a Model Y in the medium term. And i put in a reservation for a cybertruck.

[Tyson]

Recently on sort of a whim i test drove a Tesla Model Y. i recently bought a new RAM 1500 and i hate it, terrible truck, even though consumer reports rated them the best. Anyway i wanted a electric truck to start with but the Lightning or rivian are $75k+, so no go there. The Model Y was the first EV i have ever driven, long range - AWD, and it blew my mind. Like literally it felt like being in the future and what all new cars should be. the biggest thing for me was the safety stuff - if you havent ever driven one there is a setting where the infotainment system shows your car and with sonar or cameras knows where all other cars and traffic cones are around you, when you switch lanes there is a rear camera that pops up to show you whats behind you on that side. The fit and finish were excellent and the acceleration was insane - and it wasnt a performance even - just crazy. After the test drive the sales guys asked me how it went, i said it was an eye opening experience, like paradigm breaking, life changing experience. ICE cars can be fun but electric is unreal and the tech that the brand new cars have is other worldly.  I think if everyone had the chance to drive one, just giving them a chance, they would also be blown away.

I didnt trade in my truck on the spot as i have some weird stuff happening over the next few months and need a truck but i will absolutely be considering trading the truck for a Model Y in the medium term. And i put in a reservation for a cybertruck.

Yep.  And factor in the Model Y Long Range is $52k right now, but qualifies for $7500 off federal taxes, plus more off from the state taxes in most states (like, its an extra $5k off here in Colorado).  For me, here in CO, that's a brand new Model Y Long Range for $40k total.  For that $$, nothing else even comes close. 

[Dancin'Dog]

We are in the market for a car but can't even consider a Tesla because of Musk's outrageous political statements & actions.  I wonder how much demand for Teslas has suffered because of him?

[2sk22]

We are in the market for a car but can't even consider a Tesla because of Musk's outrageous political statements & actions.  I wonder how much demand for Teslas has suffered because of him?

I'm right with you on this - will never give a cent to Tesla.

[AccidentialMustache]

Never giving tesla any money is going to be a hard thing to do with NACS becoming the US standard, especially if you want good reliable available chargers.

[GilesMM]

We hate Musk's politics but love his innovation and would hate to stifle that.  Tesla revolutionized electric cars.  StarLink was a godsend.  Tesla solar has followers. Can't speak to the the space trips or flamethrower.

[LennStar]

What innovations?

Electric cars have been done before, it was just that nobody wanted to buy them. StarLink was done before (by a German btw.) in concept and model, but nobody wanted to buy it. Solar, including shingles, is not new, but nobody wanted to buy them (because too expensive).

Granted, Musk knows when the time of a product has come and is a good seller (at least to the type of people who believe he can do things in a year that other needed 5 for), but innovative? No. (If I remember correctly Paypal was also something he didn't start.)

[2sk22]

Never giving tesla any money is going to be a hard thing to do with NACS becoming the US standard, especially if you want good reliable available chargers.

In an earlier post, I have listed several reasons why I'm not an in any hurry to get an EV. I can afford to wait until the non-Tesla public charging infrastructure improves. It's true that Tesla superchargers appear to the best option for charging EVs outside your house currently. But if they remain the only viable option into the foreseeable future (which I don't think will be the case), then the EV revolution will fizzle out.

I have to say that this is mostly irrelevant to my particular situation. I have an independent house (with a 7 KW array of solar panels)  so I will likely not need to use public charging facilities. I'm retired and don't have to drive to work. We don't do much long distance driving.

Look, I am also perfectly aware that Tesla is a part of the S&P 500 and am forced to own shares in the company as an index fund investor. I am also aware that Tesla has many decent employees who don't share the batshit crazy views of Elon Musk. I'm not an EV hater - I'm glad that people are buying EVs. I am interested in the technology and always keep an eye on the market to see what is available in case I'm forced to replace one of my cars.

[Tyson]

If people aren't interested in a Tesla, then the Volkswagen ID4 also qualifies for the full $7500 federal tax credit in the US (along with additional state level incentives like the extra $5k we get here in Colorado). 

And, if you're not interested in all wheel drive (dual motors), you can get a Tesla Model 3 for $28k (it has a $40k list price and then the $12.5k tax credit).  And the ID4 is also very inexpensive, it's a list price of $39k, so here in CO you could get it for $27k.  In both cases, that's pretty darn cheap for a good EV. 

[Paper Chaser]

If people aren't interested in a Tesla, then the Volkswagen ID4 also qualifies for the full $7500 federal tax credit in the US (along with additional state level incentives like the extra $5k we get here in Colorado). 

And, if you're not interested in all wheel drive (dual motors), you can get a Tesla Model 3 for $28k (it has a $40k list price and then the $12.5k tax credit).  And the ID4 is also very inexpensive, it's a list price of $39k, so here in CO you could get it for $27k.  In both cases, that's pretty darn cheap for a good EV.

Tax credits are good and well, but lots of people talk about them like they directly reduce the price of these vehicles. You still pay for the full vehicle price up front (potentially financed), and then get some amount of the tax credit when you file taxes that year. If you actually qualify for the full credit, that's great but lots of people won't. I think the more responsible way to approach the purchase is to think of it as paying the full price and then potentially getting some amount of a rebate on that purchase.

[Just Joe]

Gruber Motors released this video about a Tesla battery that developed a bad cell and their repair.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-B_8oMZNeI

About 7 mins long.

Edited to add:

In another video Mr. Sunglasses said this repair was about $5K. Tesla's price for another battery is $20K-$22K installed at one of their service centers. Tesla's service center doesn't disassemble battery packs and search for bad cells. They simply replace the whole battery. I'm sure the bad battery is rebuilt and returned to service by someone - right?

An individual 18650 cells is about $10 from the aftermarket by the way.

In this video, Peter Gruber says it took just one defective cell out of 7000 to completely disable the car! I thought there was some kind of a sophisticated battery management system that allowed for a more graceful failure mode - the ability to route around the failure somehow

Me too. I'd expect that kind of failure on an ebike battery, not on a Tesla or similar... I know one or two cells killed my employer's Leaf (repaired under warranty).

[Just Joe]

I am very curious about the F150 Lightning, which was such an exciting announcement given the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the world.  The range, especially when towing, is dismal and this is hurting sales.

Can't remember if I posted this here or not. I used an F150 Lightning to tow a 5500 lbs box trailer. It doubled the power consumption. Roughly 1 KWH per mile at interstate speeds. A Leaf gets roughly 3.5 miles per KWH. The F150 gets around 2 except when it is towing...  Not a big deal when a person goes fishing and the round trip is 50 miles. It is a big deal when they are trying to drag their family RV trailer to the beach from middle America.

[Tyson]

If people aren't interested in a Tesla, then the Volkswagen ID4 also qualifies for the full $7500 federal tax credit in the US (along with additional state level incentives like the extra $5k we get here in Colorado). 

And, if you're not interested in all wheel drive (dual motors), you can get a Tesla Model 3 for $28k (it has a $40k list price and then the $12.5k tax credit).  And the ID4 is also very inexpensive, it's a list price of $39k, so here in CO you could get it for $27k.  In both cases, that's pretty darn cheap for a good EV.

Tax credits are good and well, but lots of people talk about them like they directly reduce the price of these vehicles. You still pay for the full vehicle price up front (potentially financed), and then get some amount of the tax credit when you file taxes that year. If you actually qualify for the full credit, that's great but lots of people won't. I think the more responsible way to approach the purchase is to think of it as paying the full price and then potentially getting some amount of a rebate on that purchase.

Starting in 2024 the law is changing and you can take the $7500 right off the top when you buy the car.  Not sure about state level rebates though, those will probably still be a rebate from your taxes when you file.

[Just Joe]

I have generally been an early adopter for most technology products. I had a high-speed DSL line and WiFi network in my house by mid 2000 and I bought an iPhone 4 in August 2010. When it comes  to EVs however, circumstances have conspired to make me a relatively late adopter. I feel absolutely no FOMO - I am perfectly content to wait for a few years until the EV offerings and charging infrastructure improve.

I feel the same. Our vehicle use is perfect for an EV - short distances, easy to recharge in our driveway, typical weekend trips are within an EV's range round trip.

But we can continue to do those with our 23 year old CRV (mostly local) and our newer larger family car (not local, 9 yrs old). Even the old car is capable of weekend trips to trail heads and when I need to go help my elderly parents in their city. Not as quiet and comfortable as the bigger car though.

Nothing compelling enough about any new vehicle considering the cost of moving up to a any car of any type. 

[Just Joe]

We are in the market for a car but can't even consider a Tesla because of Musk's outrageous political statements & actions.  I wonder how much demand for Teslas has suffered because of him?

I'm right with you on this - will never give a cent to Tesla.

Same too. Not sure I want to deal with a Tesla long term and we keep cars long term. I think I want something with more aftermarket support i.e. window motors or wheel bearings or whatever. An EV with an ICE cousin that shares the same basic wear parts.

The idea of owning a 20 year old Tesla for example is not reassuring. At the same time EVs OUGHT to last longer than their ICE cousins but I wonder if EVs won't be recycled faster than their ICE cousins due to technology failures. Who wants to drive an EV with a dead gauge display or entertainment system? It could repaired at "some cost". EVs being scrapped sooner would remove some of their "green" cred though wouldn't it?

I'm also thinking back to expensive cars of all brands that I see in junkyards that were junked because some expensive part broke and it is no longer economical to pay a shop to repair it - engine, transmission or that folding hard top perhaps or a fancy HVAC system.

[2sk22]

If people aren't interested in a Tesla, then the Volkswagen ID4 also qualifies for the full $7500 federal tax credit in the US (along with additional state level incentives like the extra $5k we get here in Colorado). 

And, if you're not interested in all wheel drive (dual motors), you can get a Tesla Model 3 for $28k (it has a $40k list price and then the $12.5k tax credit).  And the ID4 is also very inexpensive, it's a list price of $39k, so here in CO you could get it for $27k.  In both cases, that's pretty darn cheap for a good EV.

The ID4 is an interesting option however (and I am slightly embarrassed to admit this 😀), we don't qualify for the tax credit as our household income is above the threshold.

[Paper Chaser]

I am very curious about the F150 Lightning, which was such an exciting announcement given the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the world.  The range, especially when towing, is dismal and this is hurting sales.

Can't remember if I posted this here or not. I used an F150 Lightning to tow a 5500 lbs box trailer. It doubled the power consumption. Roughly 1 KWH per mile at interstate speeds. A Leaf gets roughly 3.5 miles per KWH. The F150 gets around 2 except when it is towing...  Not a big deal when a person goes fishing and the round trip is 50 miles. It is a big deal when they are trying to drag their family RV trailer to the beach from middle America.

Towing is hard work for any vehicle. An ICE truck that gets 20mpg unloaded probably gets close to 10mpg towing that same theoretical camper trailer. The difference is that it's currently much easier to locate a refueling station for the ICE truck than an EV charger, and filling the fuel tank from nearly empty to full with liquid fuel tends to take much less time than charging the EV battery from nearly empty to full. This issue is just as much about supporting infrastructure (if not more so) than it is about the type of propulsion.

[TomTX]

Never giving tesla any money is going to be a hard thing to do with NACS becoming the US standard, especially if you want good reliable available chargers.

No harder than it is today. All the NEVI funded charging stations will have CCS, and Tesla open sourced NACS (SAE will control the standard). Anyone can build a NACS charger or vehicle and not give Tesla a penny, or even ask their permission.

[Just Joe]

I am very curious about the F150 Lightning, which was such an exciting announcement given the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the world.  The range, especially when towing, is dismal and this is hurting sales.

Can't remember if I posted this here or not. I used an F150 Lightning to tow a 5500 lbs box trailer. It doubled the power consumption. Roughly 1 KWH per mile at interstate speeds. A Leaf gets roughly 3.5 miles per KWH. The F150 gets around 2 except when it is towing...  Not a big deal when a person goes fishing and the round trip is 50 miles. It is a big deal when they are trying to drag their family RV trailer to the beach from middle America.

Towing is hard work for any vehicle. An ICE truck that gets 20mpg unloaded probably gets close to 10mpg towing that same theoretical camper trailer. The difference is that it's currently much easier to locate a refueling station for the ICE truck than an EV charger, and filling the fuel tank from nearly empty to full with liquid fuel tends to take much less time than charging the EV battery from nearly empty to full. This issue is just as much about supporting infrastructure (if not more so) than it is about the type of propulsion.

Yep, agreeed.

[Dancin'Dog]

I am very curious about the F150 Lightning, which was such an exciting announcement given the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the world.  The range, especially when towing, is dismal and this is hurting sales.

Can't remember if I posted this here or not. I used an F150 Lightning to tow a 5500 lbs box trailer. It doubled the power consumption. Roughly 1 KWH per mile at interstate speeds. A Leaf gets roughly 3.5 miles per KWH. The F150 gets around 2 except when it is towing...  Not a big deal when a person goes fishing and the round trip is 50 miles. It is a big deal when they are trying to drag their family RV trailer to the beach from middle America.

Towing is hard work for any vehicle. An ICE truck that gets 20mpg unloaded probably gets close to 10mpg towing that same theoretical camper trailer. The difference is that it's currently much easier to locate a refueling station for the ICE truck than an EV charger, and filling the fuel tank from nearly empty to full with liquid fuel tends to take much less time than charging the EV battery from nearly empty to full. This issue is just as much about supporting infrastructure (if not more so) than it is about the type of propulsion.

The mileage of my vehicles doesn't drop nearly that much when pulling trailers.  My diesel Sprinter gets about 17.5 mpg normally and about 14 pulling a 6x12' enclosed trailer with a 2000 lb load.  Our old Tundra doesn't have a digital mpg reading, but I know it doesn't drop the normal 15 mpg down to 7.5 mpg. 


Other types of vehicles pulling larger trailers probably have higher mileage impacts than I've seen.   

[AccidentialMustache]

Never giving tesla any money is going to be a hard thing to do with NACS becoming the US standard, especially if you want good reliable available chargers.

No harder than it is today. All the NEVI funded charging stations will have CCS, and Tesla open sourced NACS (SAE will control the standard). Anyone can build a NACS charger or vehicle and not give Tesla a penny, or even ask their permission.

My point was NACS being a standard doesn't by itself improve the count of non-tesla chargers, not the reliability of them.

[Paper Chaser]

I am very curious about the F150 Lightning, which was such an exciting announcement given the F150 is the best selling vehicle in the world.  The range, especially when towing, is dismal and this is hurting sales.

Can't remember if I posted this here or not. I used an F150 Lightning to tow a 5500 lbs box trailer. It doubled the power consumption. Roughly 1 KWH per mile at interstate speeds. A Leaf gets roughly 3.5 miles per KWH. The F150 gets around 2 except when it is towing...  Not a big deal when a person goes fishing and the round trip is 50 miles. It is a big deal when they are trying to drag their family RV trailer to the beach from middle America.

Towing is hard work for any vehicle. An ICE truck that gets 20mpg unloaded probably gets close to 10mpg towing that same theoretical camper trailer. The difference is that it's currently much easier to locate a refueling station for the ICE truck than an EV charger, and filling the fuel tank from nearly empty to full with liquid fuel tends to take much less time than charging the EV battery from nearly empty to full. This issue is just as much about supporting infrastructure (if not more so) than it is about the type of propulsion.

The mileage of my vehicles doesn't drop nearly that much when pulling trailers.  My diesel Sprinter gets about 17.5 mpg normally and about 14 pulling a 6x12' enclosed trailer with a 2000 lb load.  Our old Tundra doesn't have a digital mpg reading, but I know it doesn't drop the normal 15 mpg down to 7.5 mpg. 


Other types of vehicles pulling larger trailers probably have higher mileage impacts than I've seen.

There's very little aerodynamic penalty when pulling a small enclosed trailer behind a van. The van shields the frontal area of the trailer from the oncoming air so there's much less drag. It's why Semi tractors have large fairings to guide air over/around the trailers they're pulling.

Most pickups tow trailers with a frontal area that's larger than the truck and at least partially exposed to oncoming air. There's a bunch more range killing drag to deal with.

Your Sprinter is also a diesel, which is a more appropriate fuel for steady, hard work than gasoline. We use different liquid fuels for different tasks that better suit their attributes. I see a low/zero carbon future the same way. Batteries won't likely get it done for tasks like long distance towing. We'll need to pursue alternatives for applications that see continuous, hard work.

Here's a comparison test between a Lightning EV and a gas powered GMC 1500 towing identical trailers:

https://insideevs.com/news/594871/ford-f150-lightning-vs-gas-truck-towing-range-single-charge/

The gas truck is a 2023 GMC Sierra 1500 with the 6.2L engine. The EPA rating for that truck is 17mpg combined (19mpg highway) and 408 total miles of range. The test truck got 8.9mpg per the onboard computer during their towing test which is 52% of the combined rated fuel economy and 46.8% of the rated highway fuel economy.
 
The Lightning started with 282mi of range and probably could've made it about 95 miles with that trailer at modern highway speeds if they had chosen to really push the envelope.

[neo von retorch]

According to the EPA, every extra 100 pounds of weight can reduce your MPG by about 1%.

So 5500 lbs vs 2000 lbs would be a difference of about 35%. That would be enough to drop 14 mpg to 9 mpg!

And, 17.5 mpg - 20% = 14 mpg on the nose...

https://towmaster.com/news/understanding-and-mastering-fuel-economy/

[GilesMM]

There's very little aerodynamic penalty when pulling a small enclosed trailer behind a van. The van shields the frontal area of the trailer from the oncoming air so there's much less drag. It's why Semi tractors have large fairings to guide air over/around the trailers they're pulling.

Most pickups tow trailers with a frontal area that's larger than the truck and at least partially exposed to oncoming air. There's a bunch more range killing drag to deal with.

Your Sprinter is also a diesel, which is a more appropriate fuel for steady, hard work than gasoline. We use different liquid fuels for different tasks that better suit their attributes. I see a low/zero carbon future the same way. Batteries won't likely get it done for tasks like long distance towing. We'll need to pursue alternatives for applications that see continuous, hard work.

Here's a comparison test between a Lightning EV and a gas powered GMC 1500 towing identical trailers:

https://insideevs.com/news/594871/ford-f150-lightning-vs-gas-truck-towing-range-single-charge/

The gas truck is a 2023 GMC Sierra 1500 with the 6.2L engine. The EPA rating for that truck is 17mpg combined (19mpg highway) and 408 total miles of range. The test truck got 8.9mpg per the onboard computer during their towing test which is 52% of the combined rated fuel economy and 46.8% of the rated highway fuel economy.
 
The Lightning started with 282mi of range and probably could've made it about 95 miles with that trailer at modern highway speeds if they had chosen to really push the envelope.

Battery power seems perfect for towing - plenty of torque.  Maybe in the future trailers will come with their own batteries built into the floor.  That way you have the extra electrons just when you need them.  The trailers would essentially "pull themselves".  Wait, someone has already thought of it! https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/02/airstream-imagines-its-first-electric-trailer-the-estream-concept/

[Tyson]

There's very little aerodynamic penalty when pulling a small enclosed trailer behind a van. The van shields the frontal area of the trailer from the oncoming air so there's much less drag. It's why Semi tractors have large fairings to guide air over/around the trailers they're pulling.

Most pickups tow trailers with a frontal area that's larger than the truck and at least partially exposed to oncoming air. There's a bunch more range killing drag to deal with.

Your Sprinter is also a diesel, which is a more appropriate fuel for steady, hard work than gasoline. We use different liquid fuels for different tasks that better suit their attributes. I see a low/zero carbon future the same way. Batteries won't likely get it done for tasks like long distance towing. We'll need to pursue alternatives for applications that see continuous, hard work.

Here's a comparison test between a Lightning EV and a gas powered GMC 1500 towing identical trailers:

https://insideevs.com/news/594871/ford-f150-lightning-vs-gas-truck-towing-range-single-charge/

The gas truck is a 2023 GMC Sierra 1500 with the 6.2L engine. The EPA rating for that truck is 17mpg combined (19mpg highway) and 408 total miles of range. The test truck got 8.9mpg per the onboard computer during their towing test which is 52% of the combined rated fuel economy and 46.8% of the rated highway fuel economy.
 
The Lightning started with 282mi of range and probably could've made it about 95 miles with that trailer at modern highway speeds if they had chosen to really push the envelope.

Battery power seems perfect for towing - plenty of torque.  Maybe in the future trailers will come with their own batteries built into the floor.  That way you have the extra electrons just when you need them.  The trailers would essentially "pull themselves".  Wait, someone has already thought of it! [size=78%]https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/02/airstream-imagines-its-first-electric-trailer-the-estream-concept/[/size]

That's pretty damn cool.

[Dancin'Dog]

Ford seems to be the only brand to offer full-size e-vans so far.  The range is only about 130 miles, I think.  That makes them pretty useless for any type of travel, and towing would obviously be out of the question.  Hopefully, they will work towards improving the range and other brands will get in the e-game.  Vans can easily have large solar roofs, but even a 1000-watt array wouldn't refill the battery bank much per day compared to the draw.  It will be interesting to see where things end up with larger vehicles as the tech evolves.

[nereo]

Ford seems to be the only brand to offer full-size e-vans so far.  The range is only about 130 miles, I think.  That makes them pretty useless for any type of travel, and towing would obviously be out of the question.  Hopefully, they will work towards improving the range and other brands will get in the e-game.  Vans can easily have large solar roofs, but even a 1000-watt array wouldn't refill the battery bank much per day compared to the draw.  It will be interesting to see where things end up with larger vehicles as the tech evolves.

Rivian is currently supplying all of Amazon's new BEV delivery vans.  They've delivered over 4,000 at last count and are contracted to provide 100k over the next 7 years.
It appears that Rivian is currently maxing out production to meet their contract with Amazon, but they do say that they are taking orders for "fleet vehicles".  My guess is once their manufacturing capacity improves Rivian will offer more e-Van options (Amazon has 3 different models)

[Paper Chaser]

There's very little aerodynamic penalty when pulling a small enclosed trailer behind a van. The van shields the frontal area of the trailer from the oncoming air so there's much less drag. It's why Semi tractors have large fairings to guide air over/around the trailers they're pulling.

Most pickups tow trailers with a frontal area that's larger than the truck and at least partially exposed to oncoming air. There's a bunch more range killing drag to deal with.

Your Sprinter is also a diesel, which is a more appropriate fuel for steady, hard work than gasoline. We use different liquid fuels for different tasks that better suit their attributes. I see a low/zero carbon future the same way. Batteries won't likely get it done for tasks like long distance towing. We'll need to pursue alternatives for applications that see continuous, hard work.

Here's a comparison test between a Lightning EV and a gas powered GMC 1500 towing identical trailers:

https://insideevs.com/news/594871/ford-f150-lightning-vs-gas-truck-towing-range-single-charge/

The gas truck is a 2023 GMC Sierra 1500 with the 6.2L engine. The EPA rating for that truck is 17mpg combined (19mpg highway) and 408 total miles of range. The test truck got 8.9mpg per the onboard computer during their towing test which is 52% of the combined rated fuel economy and 46.8% of the rated highway fuel economy.
 
The Lightning started with 282mi of range and probably could've made it about 95 miles with that trailer at modern highway speeds if they had chosen to really push the envelope.

Battery power seems perfect for towing - plenty of torque.  Maybe in the future trailers will come with their own batteries built into the floor.  That way you have the extra electrons just when you need them.  The trailers would essentially "pull themselves".  Wait, someone has already thought of it! https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/02/airstream-imagines-its-first-electric-trailer-the-estream-concept/

Battery power is perfect for towing. As long as it's only short distances. Adding more batteries seems like an easy path, but batteries are really expensive and/or really heavy. The 80kwh of battery in the trailer you linked to probably weighs 1000lbs if it's a lightweight Lithium Ion chemistry. And such a battery very likely costs over $10k.
So you can gain some range, but you lose out on the total weight you can pull and the financial benefits of increased range are pretty much dead in the water thanks to the high up front cost. If you're already towing with an EV truck that weighs 7-10k lbs, adding another 1k lbs of battery to the trailer will really reduce the amount of people or cargo that can be towed.

[Just Joe]

There's very little aerodynamic penalty when pulling a small enclosed trailer behind a van. The van shields the frontal area of the trailer from the oncoming air so there's much less drag. It's why Semi tractors have large fairings to guide air over/around the trailers they're pulling.

Most pickups tow trailers with a frontal area that's larger than the truck and at least partially exposed to oncoming air. There's a bunch more range killing drag to deal with.

Your Sprinter is also a diesel, which is a more appropriate fuel for steady, hard work than gasoline. We use different liquid fuels for different tasks that better suit their attributes. I see a low/zero carbon future the same way. Batteries won't likely get it done for tasks like long distance towing. We'll need to pursue alternatives for applications that see continuous, hard work.

Here's a comparison test between a Lightning EV and a gas powered GMC 1500 towing identical trailers:

https://insideevs.com/news/594871/ford-f150-lightning-vs-gas-truck-towing-range-single-charge/

The gas truck is a 2023 GMC Sierra 1500 with the 6.2L engine. The EPA rating for that truck is 17mpg combined (19mpg highway) and 408 total miles of range. The test truck got 8.9mpg per the onboard computer during their towing test which is 52% of the combined rated fuel economy and 46.8% of the rated highway fuel economy.
 
The Lightning started with 282mi of range and probably could've made it about 95 miles with that trailer at modern highway speeds if they had chosen to really push the envelope.

Battery power seems perfect for towing - plenty of torque.  Maybe in the future trailers will come with their own batteries built into the floor.  That way you have the extra electrons just when you need them.  The trailers would essentially "pull themselves".  Wait, someone has already thought of it! https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/02/airstream-imagines-its-first-electric-trailer-the-estream-concept/

One good solution might be a small gas (motorcycle) or diesel engine (tractor) that is part of the trailer and is capable of producing enough power to keep the tow vehicle charged. That way the weight would stay with the trailer when the BEV wasn't towing. Somewhat like the refrigeration systems on reefer trailers though perhaps hidden away within the trailer body better. And preferably quieter...

Edit: But yeah, the cost... Makes ICE engines remain the low cost solution for now.

[Paper Chaser]

There's very little aerodynamic penalty when pulling a small enclosed trailer behind a van. The van shields the frontal area of the trailer from the oncoming air so there's much less drag. It's why Semi tractors have large fairings to guide air over/around the trailers they're pulling.

Most pickups tow trailers with a frontal area that's larger than the truck and at least partially exposed to oncoming air. There's a bunch more range killing drag to deal with.

Your Sprinter is also a diesel, which is a more appropriate fuel for steady, hard work than gasoline. We use different liquid fuels for different tasks that better suit their attributes. I see a low/zero carbon future the same way. Batteries won't likely get it done for tasks like long distance towing. We'll need to pursue alternatives for applications that see continuous, hard work.

Here's a comparison test between a Lightning EV and a gas powered GMC 1500 towing identical trailers:

https://insideevs.com/news/594871/ford-f150-lightning-vs-gas-truck-towing-range-single-charge/

The gas truck is a 2023 GMC Sierra 1500 with the 6.2L engine. The EPA rating for that truck is 17mpg combined (19mpg highway) and 408 total miles of range. The test truck got 8.9mpg per the onboard computer during their towing test which is 52% of the combined rated fuel economy and 46.8% of the rated highway fuel economy.
 
The Lightning started with 282mi of range and probably could've made it about 95 miles with that trailer at modern highway speeds if they had chosen to really push the envelope.

Battery power seems perfect for towing - plenty of torque.  Maybe in the future trailers will come with their own batteries built into the floor.  That way you have the extra electrons just when you need them.  The trailers would essentially "pull themselves".  Wait, someone has already thought of it! https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/02/airstream-imagines-its-first-electric-trailer-the-estream-concept/

One good solution might be a small gas (motorcycle) or diesel engine (tractor) that is part of the trailer and is capable of producing enough power to keep the tow vehicle charged. That way the weight would stay with the trailer when the BEV wasn't towing. Somewhat like the refrigeration systems on reefer trailers though perhaps hidden away within the trailer body better. And preferably quieter...

Edit: But yeah, the cost... Makes ICE engines remain the low cost solution for now.

The idea of a small ICE range extender is not without merit for small passenger vehicles (BMW i3). But things get harder with bigger vehicles doing hard work.

THe BMW i3 gets almost 4mi/kwh per long term driving tests that I've seen. The Lightning in the tow test that I linked was consuming electricity at a rate of >1kwh per mile of travel on the highway. You're going to need a whole lot more than a motorcycle engine to charge an EV at a rate of 1kwh per minute (60KW). Again, the cost and weight of the system becomes problematic.
Here's a 65kw generator for reference (I'm ignoring charging inefficiency for simplicity):

[Dancin'Dog]

Hopefully, AI will figure this shit out.  It just doesn't appear to be humanly possible.  lol

[2sk22]

Hopefully, AI will figure this shit out.  It just doesn't appear to be humanly possible.  lol

Since I worked run AI for much of my career, I can assure you that it will not :-)

[pecunia]

There's very little aerodynamic penalty when pulling a small enclosed trailer behind a van. The van shields the frontal area of the trailer from the oncoming air so there's much less drag. It's why Semi tractors have large fairings to guide air over/around the trailers they're pulling.

Most pickups tow trailers with a frontal area that's larger than the truck and at least partially exposed to oncoming air. There's a bunch more range killing drag to deal with.

Your Sprinter is also a diesel, which is a more appropriate fuel for steady, hard work than gasoline. We use different liquid fuels for different tasks that better suit their attributes. I see a low/zero carbon future the same way. Batteries won't likely get it done for tasks like long distance towing. We'll need to pursue alternatives for applications that see continuous, hard work.

Here's a comparison test between a Lightning EV and a gas powered GMC 1500 towing identical trailers:

https://insideevs.com/news/594871/ford-f150-lightning-vs-gas-truck-towing-range-single-charge/

The gas truck is a 2023 GMC Sierra 1500 with the 6.2L engine. The EPA rating for that truck is 17mpg combined (19mpg highway) and 408 total miles of range. The test truck got 8.9mpg per the onboard computer during their towing test which is 52% of the combined rated fuel economy and 46.8% of the rated highway fuel economy.
 
The Lightning started with 282mi of range and probably could've made it about 95 miles with that trailer at modern highway speeds if they had chosen to really push the envelope.

Battery power seems perfect for towing - plenty of torque.  Maybe in the future trailers will come with their own batteries built into the floor.  That way you have the extra electrons just when you need them.  The trailers would essentially "pull themselves".  Wait, someone has already thought of it! https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/02/airstream-imagines-its-first-electric-trailer-the-estream-concept/

One good solution might be a small gas (motorcycle) or diesel engine (tractor) that is part of the trailer and is capable of producing enough power to keep the tow vehicle charged. That way the weight would stay with the trailer when the BEV wasn't towing. Somewhat like the refrigeration systems on reefer trailers though perhaps hidden away within the trailer body better. And preferably quieter...

Edit: But yeah, the cost... Makes ICE engines remain the low cost solution for now.

The idea of a small ICE range extender is not without merit for small passenger vehicles (BMW i3). But things get harder with bigger vehicles doing hard work.

THe BMW i3 gets almost 4mi/kwh per long term driving tests that I've seen. The Lightning in the tow test that I linked was consuming electricity at a rate of >1kwh per mile of travel on the highway. You're going to need a whole lot more than a motorcycle engine to charge an EV at a rate of 1kwh per minute (60KW). Again, the cost and weight of the system becomes problematic.
Here's a 65kw generator for reference (I'm ignoring charging inefficiency for simplicity):

I saw this engine article the other day and thought it was cool:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/company-builds-powerful-500cc-one-stroke-engine-immediately-installs-it-in-a-miata

So - Range extenders are required to help make electric cars more practical.  Necessity is the mother of invention.  But, who's it daddy?

[LennStar]

So - Range extenders are required to help make electric cars more practical.  Necessity is the mother of invention.  But, who's it daddy?

No, you can just stop buying oversized stuff. And if you transport a big box with the airodynamics of a pregnant cow, just don't drive faster than 45 miles per hour (I think that is a typical speed in the US? EU would be 70km/h).
Air resistance is subject to the square, so simply driving slow and using regenerative breaking should give 50% more range. And then use the damned thing and make a break of at least 20min while charging, as you should do anyway after no more than 2 hours of driving.

[pecunia]

So - Range extenders are required to help make electric cars more practical.  Necessity is the mother of invention.  But, who's it daddy?

No, you can just stop buying oversized stuff. And if you transport a big box with the airodynamics of a pregnant cow, just don't drive faster than 45 miles per hour (I think that is a typical speed in the US? EU would be 70km/h).
Air resistance is subject to the square, so simply driving slow and using regenerative breaking should give 50% more range. And then use the damned thing and make a break of at least 20min while charging, as you should do anyway after no more than 2 hours of driving.

I'm not sure you know this, but American car makers stopped selling sedans in USA.  You can still get a sedan from Honda, Kia, etc, but Ford and GM do not have new cars only SUVs.  They say it's due to customer demand, but some may be due to the extra margin they make on those vehicles they sell with the aerodynamics of a pregnant cow.  So - Some of the reason for these bulky vehicles is due to supply and not always demand.  I traded in my Focus 3 1/2 years ago and kind of still miss it. 

[neo von retorch]

American car makers stopped selling sedans in USA.  You can still get a sedan from Honda, Kia, etc, but Ford and GM do not have new cars only SUVs.  They say it's due to customer demand, but some may be due to the extra margin they make on those vehicles they sell with the aerodynamics of a pregnant cow.

Looks like the domestic American brands are not alone - https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/08/gm-is-not-alone-in-discontinuing-sedans/

But definitely more options from the imports!

[AccidentialMustache]

If you want power density and light weight for vehicular applications, look at aircraft. You don't want a piston-anything. You want a gas turbine hooked up to a generator.

There's https://www.borntoengineer.com/delta-mitre-micro-turbine-offers-huge-range-boost-electric-vehicles for the exact application.

Mount the turbine on the trailer and have a way to hook the power into the car's DC directly and you're good to go.

[LennStar]

I'm not sure you know this, but American car makers stopped selling sedans in USA.  You can still get a sedan from Honda, Kia, etc, but Ford and GM do not have new cars only SUVs.  They say it's due to customer demand, but some may be due to the extra margin they make on those vehicles they sell with the aerodynamics of a pregnant cow.  So - Some of the reason for these bulky vehicles is due to supply and not always demand.  I traded in my Focus 3 1/2 years ago and kind of still miss it.

I know many EU producers did or do the same. And I think my i10 from Hyundai is also stopped this year.  There are still options.

[Paper Chaser]

So - Range extenders are required to help make electric cars more practical.  Necessity is the mother of invention.  But, who's it daddy?

No, you can just stop buying oversized stuff. And if you transport a big box with the airodynamics of a pregnant cow, just don't drive faster than 45 miles per hour (I think that is a typical speed in the US? EU would be 70km/h).
Air resistance is subject to the square, so simply driving slow and using regenerative breaking should give 50% more range. And then use the damned thing and make a break of at least 20min while charging, as you should do anyway after no more than 2 hours of driving.

45mph is a fairly common speed limit for suburban roads with frequent stops. Rural roads are often 50-60mph and interstates can be much faster. 80,000 lb (36k kg) semi trucks travel at 65-70mph (104-112kph) on the interstates here. Driving 45mph in that environment is a safety hazard.



The US is a big place, and people/goods that travel by car can cover long distances in relatively short amounts of time. Every year or so I drive approximately 650 miles (1000km) one way to visit family. Imagine something like Hamburg to Vienna maybe? It typically takes around 10.5 hrs including meal/fuel stops and speeds in the 70-75mph range. Slowing to 45mph and then stopping every 2 hrs would nearly double the time.