Ukraine

[SunnyDays]

Although Ukraine grows a lot of wheat, my understanding is that it is not as good a quality as Canadian wheat.  Less protein apparently.  It’s not due to the soil but the wheat variety itself.  Not to say it still won’t be a loss if no crops can be produced.

[Travis]

I just read that Russia is threatening the US that it will bomb any cargo ships carrying weapons to Ukraine.  Most likely bluffing?

What cargo ships?

Come on, by air to Poland and then over the border into Ukraine.  No way are any Nato ships going in to the Black Sea ports, with or without arms on board.

Not even a bluff, just an empty threat.

Oh okay, I didn't know :)  If they start bombing Poland that's gonna be problematic for Russia I guess.

Maybe I read it wrong.  CNN is saying now.. it's the main headline:

"Russia issues warning to US that it would fire on weapon shipments to Ukraine, raising the risk of direct confrontation between Moscow and a NATO country."

Maybe I read shipments as ships.  But those shipments could be shipments from USA to Poland?   They'd actually bomb US aircraft in Poland?

Russia is bluffing. They wouldn't dare attack the US openly. We can squash them like a bug if we so chose. They're the bully on the playground who's trying to look big and strong but really they're not. Russia's economy is in freefall - they've announced that their stock market will be closed through at least the end of this coming week.

If they were going to push this issue, they'd attack the supply trucks inside Ukraine. Why they haven't already is up for conjecture. I don't know if all of these weapons and supplies are being driven by Poles or Ukrainians. Would we invoke Article 5 if a "volunteer" Polish truck was destroyed inside Ukraine? No idea, but I think Putin is willing to test that idea. There are so many in the West itching for Putin to do something as stupid as fire a weapon of any kind into Poland itself that I can't imagine he'd try it.

[pecunia]

I just read that Russia is threatening the US that it will bomb any cargo ships carrying weapons to Ukraine.  Most likely bluffing?

What cargo ships?

Come on, by air to Poland and then over the border into Ukraine.  No way are any Nato ships going in to the Black Sea ports, with or without arms on board.

Not even a bluff, just an empty threat.

Oh okay, I didn't know :)  If they start bombing Poland that's gonna be problematic for Russia I guess.

Maybe I read it wrong.  CNN is saying now.. it's the main headline:

"Russia issues warning to US that it would fire on weapon shipments to Ukraine, raising the risk of direct confrontation between Moscow and a NATO country."

Maybe I read shipments as ships.  But those shipments could be shipments from USA to Poland?   They'd actually bomb US aircraft in Poland?

Russia is bluffing. They wouldn't dare attack the US openly. We can squash them like a bug if we so chose. They're the bully on the playground who's trying to look big and strong but really they're not. Russia's economy is in freefall - they've announced that their stock market will be closed through at least the end of this coming week.

Russia is bluffing.  They will never attack Ukraine.  I heard that just a few weeks ago.

If Russia sent all those tanks into Ukraine, they would roll them over like bugs.  - I heard that one too.

[maizefolk]

Although Ukraine grows a lot of wheat, my understanding is that it is not as good a quality as Canadian wheat.  Less protein apparently.  It’s not due to the soil but the wheat variety itself.  Not to say it still won’t be a loss if no crops can be produced.

I wrote a whole long post and then deleted it as I suspect few people actually care about the trade offs between soft white winter wheats and hard red spring wheats. Suffice is to say that looking across all the types of wheat grown in the world and all the places that grow them, it is neither as simple or as clear cut as "higher protein" = "higher quality."

[Sibley]

I just read that Russia is threatening the US that it will bomb any cargo ships carrying weapons to Ukraine.  Most likely bluffing?

What cargo ships?

Come on, by air to Poland and then over the border into Ukraine.  No way are any Nato ships going in to the Black Sea ports, with or without arms on board.

Not even a bluff, just an empty threat.

Oh okay, I didn't know :)  If they start bombing Poland that's gonna be problematic for Russia I guess.

Maybe I read it wrong.  CNN is saying now.. it's the main headline:

"Russia issues warning to US that it would fire on weapon shipments to Ukraine, raising the risk of direct confrontation between Moscow and a NATO country."

Maybe I read shipments as ships.  But those shipments could be shipments from USA to Poland?   They'd actually bomb US aircraft in Poland?

Russia is bluffing. They wouldn't dare attack the US openly. We can squash them like a bug if we so chose. They're the bully on the playground who's trying to look big and strong but really they're not. Russia's economy is in freefall - they've announced that their stock market will be closed through at least the end of this coming week.

Russia is bluffing.  They will never attack Ukraine.  I heard that just a few weeks ago.

If Russia sent all those tanks into Ukraine, they would roll them over like bugs.  - I heard that one too.

Ok, so say Putin attacks US troops.
https://armedforces.eu/compare/country_USA_vs_Russia

I don't think that's going to go so well.

[Sibley]

Although Ukraine grows a lot of wheat, my understanding is that it is not as good a quality as Canadian wheat.  Less protein apparently.  It’s not due to the soil but the wheat variety itself.  Not to say it still won’t be a loss if no crops can be produced.

I wrote a whole long post and then deleted it as I suspect few people actually care about the trade offs between soft white winter wheats and hard red spring wheats. Suffice is to say that looking across all the types of wheat grown in the world and all the places that grow them, it is neither as simple or as clear cut as "higher protein" = "higher quality."

I wish you hadn't deleted it. I am interested, if ignorant.

[Travis]

Although Ukraine grows a lot of wheat, my understanding is that it is not as good a quality as Canadian wheat.  Less protein apparently.  It’s not due to the soil but the wheat variety itself.  Not to say it still won’t be a loss if no crops can be produced.

I wrote a whole long post and then deleted it as I suspect few people actually care about the trade offs between soft white winter wheats and hard red spring wheats. Suffice is to say that looking across all the types of wheat grown in the world and all the places that grow them, it is neither as simple or as clear cut as "higher protein" = "higher quality."

Regardless of the nutritional content of Ukrainian wheat, is somebody going to miss it if it's not grown this year? A lot of somebodys?

[SunnyDays]

Although Ukraine grows a lot of wheat, my understanding is that it is not as good a quality as Canadian wheat.  Less protein apparently.  It’s not due to the soil but the wheat variety itself.  Not to say it still won’t be a loss if no crops can be produced.

I wrote a whole long post and then deleted it as I suspect few people actually care about the trade offs between soft white winter wheats and hard red spring wheats. Suffice is to say that looking across all the types of wheat grown in the world and all the places that grow them, it is neither as simple or as clear cut as "higher protein" = "higher quality."

Regardless of the nutritional content of Ukrainian wheat, is somebody going to miss it if it's not grown this year? A lot of somebodys?

Yes of course, I said so in my post, but the quotes deleted it.

[Travis]

Although Ukraine grows a lot of wheat, my understanding is that it is not as good a quality as Canadian wheat.  Less protein apparently.  It’s not due to the soil but the wheat variety itself.  Not to say it still won’t be a loss if no crops can be produced.

I wrote a whole long post and then deleted it as I suspect few people actually care about the trade offs between soft white winter wheats and hard red spring wheats. Suffice is to say that looking across all the types of wheat grown in the world and all the places that grow them, it is neither as simple or as clear cut as "higher protein" = "higher quality."

Regardless of the nutritional content of Ukrainian wheat, is somebody going to miss it if it's not grown this year? A lot of somebodys?

Yes of course, I said so in my post, but the quotes deleted it.

Sorry, it's Sunday morning. You can't expect me to read the entire page.

[RetiredAt63]

Although Ukraine grows a lot of wheat, my understanding is that it is not as good a quality as Canadian wheat.  Less protein apparently.  It’s not due to the soil but the wheat variety itself.  Not to say it still won’t be a loss if no crops can be produced.

I wrote a whole long post and then deleted it as I suspect few people actually care about the trade offs between soft white winter wheats and hard red spring wheats. Suffice is to say that looking across all the types of wheat grown in the world and all the places that grow them, it is neither as simple or as clear cut as "higher protein" = "higher quality."

I'd read it.  Red Fife was developed relatively near me.  It may have had a Ukrainian origin.  ;-) https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/red-fife-wheat

[Just Joe]

This is an interesting article about Russians using analog civilian/consumer grade Chinese radios you and I can buy on Amazon for $30.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-comms-ukraine-world-hertz

[LennStar]

After reading some of these links, it almost appears that Russia is basically a mafia run country. 

Yes, that is how countries on the border of authoritarian/despotic work.
The leader gives out easily to exploit position to ensure loyality. That includes of course the army. Result is that the army top is loyal and the small soldier (to whom nothing trickles down) is fucked.
On the economy side oil is loved - it can be extracted even without involving people from the country. Otherwise it's agriculture. You can easily threaten people to burn down their fields. Also thugs are generally not the smartest people, so you can't have them run a high tech company.

[pecunia]

After reading some of these links, it almost appears that Russia is basically a mafia run country. 

Yes, that is how countries on the border of authoritarian/despotic work.
The leader gives out easily to exploit position to ensure loyality. That includes of course the army. Result is that the army top is loyal and the small soldier (to whom nothing trickles down) is fucked.
On the economy side oil is loved - it can be extracted even without involving people from the country. Otherwise it's agriculture. You can easily threaten people to burn down their fields. Also thugs are generally not the smartest people, so you can't have them run a high tech company.

This was a good response.  I've spent some time pondering as to why some countries with very old civilizations seem so slow to adopt more modern technology.  When I was young teachers told me it was because those countries were poor.  It never quite made sense to me.  If they were poor, technology would lift them out of poverty.  Their leaders are not poor since they are supported by the many poor people.  They have no interest in helping the little guy.  Wealth rarely "trickles down."

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

[OtherJen]

After reading some of these links, it almost appears that Russia is basically a mafia run country. 

Yes, that is how countries on the border of authoritarian/despotic work.
The leader gives out easily to exploit position to ensure loyality. That includes of course the army. Result is that the army top is loyal and the small soldier (to whom nothing trickles down) is fucked.
On the economy side oil is loved - it can be extracted even without involving people from the country. Otherwise it's agriculture. You can easily threaten people to burn down their fields. Also thugs are generally not the smartest people, so you can't have them run a high tech company.

This was a good response.  I've spent some time pondering as to why some countries with very old civilizations seem so slow to adopt more modern technology.  When I was young teachers told me it was because those countries were poor.  It never quite made sense to me.  If they were poor, technology would lift them out of poverty.  Their leaders are not poor since they are supported by the many poor people.  They have no interest in helping the little guy.  Wealth rarely "trickles down."

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

If you have a small geographic territory and control over all forms of media to facilitate brainwashing, you can keep the con going indefinitely, even if the population is highly impoverished (see N. Korea). I think Putin would be happy with a set-up like that, but geographically, Russia is huge and it's harder to keep control over modern communications over such a vast territory.

[maizefolk]

I wish you hadn't deleted it. I am interested, if ignorant.

Okay, the short version is that wheat is a much more differentiated commodity than corn or soybeans. Typically internationally traded corn is corn is corn. But different types of wheat are used for different purposes, food processors are optimized for very specific flour qualities, and it is not always possible or desirable to replace one kind of wheat with another.

Flour grades have specific percent protein targets. Sometimes mills will pay more for a high protein batch of grain because they know they'll be able to blend it into a different batch of wheat with less protein to hit the right overall percent protein in their finished product. This is where the idea that high protein = more valuable = higher quality comes from.

But a lot of farmers grow "soft" wheat varieties are genetically predisposed to have lower protein content. And, depending on the year and location, soft wheats can sell for more than "hard" wheats. Because the soft wheats produce flour that works a lot better for many types of baked goods including many european style breads that typically sell for higher prices even here in the USA than the standard bread in the bread aisle which will be made from higher protein wheat.

In the pacific northwest they primarily grow soft white wheats that produce extraordinarily fine flour. The "white" as opposed to "red" means there is a smaller bran component with fewer bitter compounds, which means it can be used to produce baked goods with less added sugar to mask the normal bitter taste of wheat. The vast majority of the wheat grown in the PNW isn't consumed in the USA because asian import markets pay more for the high quality flours it produces than we're willing to pay for internal consumption. So to me a great example of a high quality wheat with low protein.

Canada grows a lot of hard red spring wheat -- so do we, mostly in North Dakota and Montana -- whose claim to fame is higher protein content. It makes for good bagels and other baked goods that you expect to be really tough when you bite into them. But a pancake made from hard red spring wheat would not be particularly pleasant to eat.

In the end @Travis 's point is the important one. If tens of millions of tons of wheat go missing, a lot of people are going to miss it. But seeing all of Ukrainian wheat called "low quality" just because it isn't hard red spring wheat stuck in my craw.

[RetiredAt63]

After reading some of these links, it almost appears that Russia is basically a mafia run country. 

Yes, that is how countries on the border of authoritarian/despotic work.
The leader gives out easily to exploit position to ensure loyality. That includes of course the army. Result is that the army top is loyal and the small soldier (to whom nothing trickles down) is fucked.
On the economy side oil is loved - it can be extracted even without involving people from the country. Otherwise it's agriculture. You can easily threaten people to burn down their fields. Also thugs are generally not the smartest people, so you can't have them run a high tech company.

This was a good response.  I've spent some time pondering as to why some countries with very old civilizations seem so slow to adopt more modern technology.  When I was young teachers told me it was because those countries were poor.  It never quite made sense to me.  If they were poor, technology would lift them out of poverty.  Their leaders are not poor since they are supported by the many poor people.  They have no interest in helping the little guy.  Wealth rarely "trickles down."

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

I'm hoping that a lot of the sanctions hit the oligarchs much much more than they hit most Russians, because they are the ones who might be able to have influence.

[sonofsven]

After reading some of these links, it almost appears that Russia is basically a mafia run country. 

Yes, that is how countries on the border of authoritarian/despotic work.
The leader gives out easily to exploit position to ensure loyality. That includes of course the army. Result is that the army top is loyal and the small soldier (to whom nothing trickles down) is fucked.
On the economy side oil is loved - it can be extracted even without involving people from the country. Otherwise it's agriculture. You can easily threaten people to burn down their fields. Also thugs are generally not the smartest people, so you can't have them run a high tech company.

This was a good response.  I've spent some time pondering as to why some countries with very old civilizations seem so slow to adopt more modern technology.  When I was young teachers told me it was because those countries were poor.  It never quite made sense to me.  If they were poor, technology would lift them out of poverty.  Their leaders are not poor since they are supported by the many poor people.  They have no interest in helping the little guy.  Wealth rarely "trickles down."

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

I'm hoping that a lot of the sanctions hit the oligarchs much much more than they hit most Russians, because they are the ones who might be able to have influence.

Is this sort of an achilles heel of the RU economy? So much wealth in so few people makes them quite a target.

[former player]

After reading some of these links, it almost appears that Russia is basically a mafia run country. 

Yes, that is how countries on the border of authoritarian/despotic work.
The leader gives out easily to exploit position to ensure loyality. That includes of course the army. Result is that the army top is loyal and the small soldier (to whom nothing trickles down) is fucked.
On the economy side oil is loved - it can be extracted even without involving people from the country. Otherwise it's agriculture. You can easily threaten people to burn down their fields. Also thugs are generally not the smartest people, so you can't have them run a high tech company.

This was a good response.  I've spent some time pondering as to why some countries with very old civilizations seem so slow to adopt more modern technology.  When I was young teachers told me it was because those countries were poor.  It never quite made sense to me.  If they were poor, technology would lift them out of poverty.  Their leaders are not poor since they are supported by the many poor people.  They have no interest in helping the little guy.  Wealth rarely "trickles down."

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

I'm hoping that a lot of the sanctions hit the oligarchs much much more than they hit most Russians, because they are the ones who might be able to have influence.

Is this sort of an achilles heel of the RU economy? So much wealth in so few people makes them quite a target.

Saying that the oligarchs have influence over Putin is I think putting things the wrong way around.  The oligarchs are rich because they toady up to Putin, and they continue to be rich at his whim - see for instance Khordorkovsky, who was the richest man in Russia until Putin wanted him not to be rich, at which point he went to prison and then into exile.

Putin has a small band of cronies around him who implement Putin's decisions, and even they are kept at the other end of that very long table.  All of them are now implicated in the Ukraine disaster.  There probably isn't anyone left who has influence over Putin, and anyone who tried would probably end up dead or in prison.

[gaja]

Thank you, @maizefolk - good to know!

It hurts to see the fantastic farm land in Ukraine being destroyed by heavy tanks and pollution from bombings. Destroying the best soil on earth should be added to the "crimes against humanity" list.

[lemanfan]

Thank you, @maizefolk - good to know!

It hurts to see the fantastic farm land in Ukraine being destroyed by heavy tanks and pollution from bombings. Destroying the best soil on earth should be added to the "crimes against humanity" list.

For what it's worth, China has been involved there a while back:

https://www.channel4.com/news/china-ukraine-farmland-food-security-investment-overseas

Perhaps that has changed over time... but I found it interesting back when it happened.

[Sibley]

@maizefolk Thank you for the wheat information. Feel free to share esoteric knowledge with me at any time.

In other news, Russia is still in process of actively destroying its economy. Saying they'll make debt payments in rubles. I'm sure that's going to go over well in finance circles.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-11/card/russia-s-finance-minister-says-country-will-pay-debt-in-rubles-until-central-bank-sanctions-lifted-c9lJghNNgGzbzdPzbsLR

And Zelensky is still alive, and still giving his security team heart attacks. A video posted of him walking outside to visit wounded soldiers. And while he was surrounded by people, they don't look like they're heavily armed people. Probably kept out of view of the camera. Am guessing Zelensky is wearing bulletproof armor or something under his sweatshirt, because there's another video of him wearing the same sweatshirt and it doesn't look as tight.

[LennStar]

After reading some of these links, it almost appears that Russia is basically a mafia run country. 

Yes, that is how countries on the border of authoritarian/despotic work.
The leader gives out easily to exploit position to ensure loyality. That includes of course the army. Result is that the army top is loyal and the small soldier (to whom nothing trickles down) is fucked.
On the economy side oil is loved - it can be extracted even without involving people from the country. Otherwise it's agriculture. You can easily threaten people to burn down their fields. Also thugs are generally not the smartest people, so you can't have them run a high tech company.

This was a good response.  I've spent some time pondering as to why some countries with very old civilizations seem so slow to adopt more modern technology.  When I was young teachers told me it was because those countries were poor.  It never quite made sense to me.  If they were poor, technology would lift them out of poverty.  Their leaders are not poor since they are supported by the many poor people.  They have no interest in helping the little guy.  Wealth rarely "trickles down."

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

I'm hoping that a lot of the sanctions hit the oligarchs much much more than they hit most Russians, because they are the ones who might be able to have influence.

Is this sort of an achilles heel of the RU economy? So much wealth in so few people makes them quite a target.

That's the point where the "border between autoritarians and despots" come in.
An authoritarian rules by giving lucative posts to people to buy their loyality. There might be a few "accidents" and some inprisonment of too free journalists, but nothing too bloody happens from or towards the authoritarian.

If however the money runs dry, the leader has to decide: Either lose power or go more dictatorial (or sell resources or base rights to other countries). Putin has done the latter. It's a very slippery slope. The more you lose control through the indirect economic handouts, the more you need to rely on the direct (mostly military, but also think a seat in the security council). And you better not think about leaving the inner circle, or else...
This is also frequently the reason that militaries in despotic countries may suck as much as they suck off GDP. It's bought loyality from those who literally have all the guns.

More on this and related topics in the book in my signature ;)
 

[RWD]

After reading some of these links, it almost appears that Russia is basically a mafia run country. 

Yes, that is how countries on the border of authoritarian/despotic work.
The leader gives out easily to exploit position to ensure loyality. That includes of course the army. Result is that the army top is loyal and the small soldier (to whom nothing trickles down) is fucked.
On the economy side oil is loved - it can be extracted even without involving people from the country. Otherwise it's agriculture. You can easily threaten people to burn down their fields. Also thugs are generally not the smartest people, so you can't have them run a high tech company.

This was a good response.  I've spent some time pondering as to why some countries with very old civilizations seem so slow to adopt more modern technology.  When I was young teachers told me it was because those countries were poor.  It never quite made sense to me.  If they were poor, technology would lift them out of poverty.  Their leaders are not poor since they are supported by the many poor people.  They have no interest in helping the little guy.  Wealth rarely "trickles down."

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

I'm hoping that a lot of the sanctions hit the oligarchs much much more than they hit most Russians, because they are the ones who might be able to have influence.

Is this sort of an achilles heel of the RU economy? So much wealth in so few people makes them quite a target.

That's the point where the "border between autoritarians and despots" come in.
An authoritarian rules by giving lucative posts to people to buy their loyality. There might be a few "accidents" and some inprisonment of too free journalists, but nothing too bloody happens from or towards the authoritarian.

If however the money runs dry, the leader has to decide: Either lose power or go more dictatorial (or sell resources or base rights to other countries). Putin has done the latter. It's a very slippery slope. The more you lose control through the indirect economic handouts, the more you need to rely on the direct (mostly military, but also think a seat in the security council). And you better not think about leaving the inner circle, or else...
This is also frequently the reason that militaries in despotic countries may suck as much as they suck off GDP. It's bought loyality from those who literally have all the guns.

More on this and related topics in the book in my signature ;)

CGP Grey did an excellent video on that book:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs

[RetiredAt63]

After reading some of these links, it almost appears that Russia is basically a mafia run country. 

Yes, that is how countries on the border of authoritarian/despotic work.
The leader gives out easily to exploit position to ensure loyality. That includes of course the army. Result is that the army top is loyal and the small soldier (to whom nothing trickles down) is fucked.
On the economy side oil is loved - it can be extracted even without involving people from the country. Otherwise it's agriculture. You can easily threaten people to burn down their fields. Also thugs are generally not the smartest people, so you can't have them run a high tech company.

This was a good response.  I've spent some time pondering as to why some countries with very old civilizations seem so slow to adopt more modern technology.  When I was young teachers told me it was because those countries were poor.  It never quite made sense to me.  If they were poor, technology would lift them out of poverty.  Their leaders are not poor since they are supported by the many poor people.  They have no interest in helping the little guy.  Wealth rarely "trickles down."

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

I'm hoping that a lot of the sanctions hit the oligarchs much much more than they hit most Russians, because they are the ones who might be able to have influence.

Is this sort of an achilles heel of the RU economy? So much wealth in so few people makes them quite a target.

Saying that the oligarchs have influence over Putin is I think putting things the wrong way around. The oligarchs are rich because they toady up to Putin, and they continue to be rich at his whim - see for instance Khordorkovsky, who was the richest man in Russia until Putin wanted him not to be rich, at which point he went to prison and then into exile.

Putin has a small band of cronies around him who implement Putin's decisions, and even they are kept at the other end of that very long table.  All of them are now implicated in the Ukraine disaster.  There probably isn't anyone left who has influence over Putin, and anyone who tried would probably end up dead or in prison.

I was thinking more along the lines of oligarchs seeing that the person who made them wealthy is now destroying that wealth - so any loyalty they might have because of that is gone.  If they want to hold on to the wealth, Putin can no longer do that for them, because of sanctions - so why be loyal any more?   Not sure what they could do because of the setup, but they can potentially do more than the average Russian.

[waltworks]

I have a couple of Russian friends (ie, were born in Russia/lived in Russia until adulthood) who I asked about the chances of a revolt either of commoners or oligarchs. They were both pretty dismissive, and when I asked why, they both gave a variant of "Russians have a slave mentality" as an answer.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Putin to be overthrown. The only way this ends "well" is if China decides to put some pressure on, IMO.

-W

[pecunia]

I have a couple of Russian friends (ie, were born in Russia/lived in Russia until adulthood) who I asked about the chances of a revolt either of commoners or oligarchs. They were both pretty dismissive, and when I asked why, they both gave a variant of "Russians have a slave mentality" as an answer.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Putin to be overthrown. The only way this ends "well" is if China decides to put some pressure on, IMO.

-W

Well - How did the Ukrainians escape the "slave mentality?"  Just a different history.  The land of rebel cossacks?  They sure ain't got it.

[Blender Bender]

I have a couple of Russian friends (ie, were born in Russia/lived in Russia until adulthood) who I asked about the chances of a revolt either of commoners or oligarchs. They were both pretty dismissive, and when I asked why, they both gave a variant of "Russians have a slave mentality" as an answer.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Putin to be overthrown. The only way this ends "well" is if China decides to put some pressure on, IMO.

-W

Well - How did the Ukrainians escape the "slave mentality?"  Just a different history.  The land of rebel cossacks?  They sure ain't got it.

Yes, rebel of cossacks is a good guess.

But also the Holomodor, living in memories and uniting Ukrainians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

Also, Ukrainians have been rebuilding their national identity in the last 10 years: Orange revolution, Crimea, Donbas.
They have been also building their national identity looking into 30-ties, 40-ties of 20 century. They a bit collaborated with Hitler in attempt to win their independence. And this is the fuel to putler propaganda.

All these separate Ukrainians from russians. Making them not following the Tzar.

[pecunia]

I have a couple of Russian friends (ie, were born in Russia/lived in Russia until adulthood) who I asked about the chances of a revolt either of commoners or oligarchs. They were both pretty dismissive, and when I asked why, they both gave a variant of "Russians have a slave mentality" as an answer.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Putin to be overthrown. The only way this ends "well" is if China decides to put some pressure on, IMO.

-W

Well - How did the Ukrainians escape the "slave mentality?"  Just a different history.  The land of rebel cossacks?  They sure ain't got it.

Yes, rebel of cossacks is a good guess.

But also the Holomodor, living in memories and uniting Ukrainians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

Also, Ukrainians have been rebuilding their national identity in the last 10 years: Orange revolution, Crimea, Donbas.
They have been also building their national identity looking into 30-ties, 40-ties of 20 century. They a bit collaborated with Hitler in attempt to win their independence. And this is the fuel to putler propaganda.

All these separate Ukrainians from russians. Making them not following the Tzar.

Putin wants to bring things back to the way they used to be.  "Make Russia Great Again"  The encirclement of cities and not allowing food and water seems to be a but reminiscent of when Stalin had all the Ukrainians starve.  I hadn't realized that 10 million people died of starvation there in the depression years.  This happened in a land with some of the best farmland on Earth.  I can see them carrying a grudge.

[elaine amj]

I just had a chance for a video chat with a missionary in Ukraine. Crazy to think some people believe this is all a hoax. Heartbreaking, yet inspiring to hear of her work with refugees and I was glad to send my donation directly to someone on the ground.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blender Bender]

I have a couple of Russian friends (ie, were born in Russia/lived in Russia until adulthood) who I asked about the chances of a revolt either of commoners or oligarchs. They were both pretty dismissive, and when I asked why, they both gave a variant of "Russians have a slave mentality" as an answer.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Putin to be overthrown. The only way this ends "well" is if China decides to put some pressure on, IMO.

-W

Well - How did the Ukrainians escape the "slave mentality?"  Just a different history.  The land of rebel cossacks?  They sure ain't got it.

Yes, rebel of cossacks is a good guess.

But also the Holomodor, living in memories and uniting Ukrainians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

Also, Ukrainians have been rebuilding their national identity in the last 10 years: Orange revolution, Crimea, Donbas.
They have been also building their national identity looking into 30-ties, 40-ties of 20 century. They a bit collaborated with Hitler in attempt to win their independence. And this is the fuel to putler propaganda.

All these separate Ukrainians from russians. Making them not following the Tzar.

Putin wants to bring things back to the way they used to be.  "Make Russia Great Again"  The encirclement of cities and not allowing food and water seems to be a but reminiscent of when Stalin had all the Ukrainians starve.  I hadn't realized that 10 million people died of starvation there in the depression years.  This happened in a land with some of the best farmland on Earth.  I can see them carrying a grudge.

I think that it is worthy of clearly pointing out that Holomodor was not unintended consequence of e.g. mismanagement. It was deliberate punishment of Ukrainians for resisting the forced collectivization of the farms and economy.

Another reason for Ukrainians being different from russians again history. Ukraine (mostly western part) was part of
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Lithuanian_Commonwealth, later part of Poland - western influence. Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth was not autocratic. Russians were alway autocratic.

When talking about history - russia has some bad blood with Poland, e.g.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_Day_(Russia) (Poland took Moscow)
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Soviet_War (Poland stop Communism coming to the western Europe).
Some of the reason russians rulers hate Poland deeply, and would do anything to score back, perhaps soon.

[sonofsven]

My guess is that Putin will continue to do brutal damage to Ukraine, continually baiting NATO (aka the US) to step in, which will be spun as US intervention in a regional conflict if they take the bait.
If the US (aka NATO) stays out, which they (US) are trying oh so hard to do, then at a certain point in the mindless destruction of Ukraine he will declare victory and pull his forces back to Russia, leaving the Ukranians proudly in control of their decimated country, fully expecting that in no way, shape , or form they will do any sort of counter attack onto Russian soil. Putin will have "won". A weakened Ukraine will be easier for Russia to undermine.
The domestic situation is under "control", the continued (I assume) sanctions on Russia for their bad behavior will be spun as continued US intervention and meddling, relations will at some point return to a bit of normalcy between many of the regional nations, because :oil and gas. There will be a huge outpouring of aid to help re-build Ukraine and much outrage about Russia's actions, and it will fundamentally change the relationship between the US and especially the UK in regards to offshore money laundering and Russian (and others) corruption. At least I hope that last part happens.
We're watching domestic violence, essentially, Putin is the abuser. But no one is willing to step in and make him stop, everyone is waiting for him to stop on his own. Which he will do as he has no other option, but apparently not until he's had his fill.
It's fucked up. Reading Kamil Galeev (linked to upthread) has convinced me that Putin is essentially a gangster, and in that view his actions make a certain sense, but that they are badly failing at executing the plan because of poor management and corruption. Unfortunately, internally Putin has weakened any rivals, and the current crackdown is likely pushing many opponents to leave the country (if they're not arrested) while increasing the power of his supporters because of nationalism.

[pecunia]

I hope the situation gets no worse than that predicted by sonofsven.

Yet even more unwanted thoughts and opinions:

A Tale of Two Countries

There are two countries in the world with some similarities.  One of which I think would be a great place to live and the other sucks.  Both countries are huge.  Both countries are resource intensive and make good money supplying what the world needs.  Both countries have a degree of remoteness (unless you live there).  One country is Australia and the other is Russia.  One country appears destined to provide for it's people both in terms of opportunity and lifestyle.  One country is oppressive and rife with corruption.  This country is becoming a pariah to the world.

What's the point?  Well there's a right way and wrong way to do things.  That's all.

[Abe]

The Putin is progressing his war, there is a risk of a repeat of the Holodomor. He is willing to deliberately target civilians and he knows we won’t stop him because of his nuclear weapons. He is a Russian supremacist much like Hitler was a German supremacist. He has brainwashed his masses not as effectively as Hitler did, but the Third Reich didn’t rise in a day. Even his initial plan of Blitzkrieg, as outdated as they are now, are similar.

However, now Ukrainians can resist and an asymmetric war is all-but-guaranteed. We have not choice, because Poland and other European countries rightly point out the Red Army will not stop. This asymmetric war will eventually spread to Moscow, and when the first bomb goes off at a soft target in Moscow or St Petersburg, the world will collapse further into this abyss. We must stop Putin; arguing we are not in WW3 is semantics. This is the first battle. It is not the last. If he will use nuclear weapons, that is almost assured at some point during this conflict since his conventional forces have proven so ineffective. The only question is how to limit the fallout (literally). He has backed himself into a corner of his own making, the rotting core of Russia is exposed for what it is, and nuclear weapons will be his only (in his mind) way to save face.

[Sibley]

I can't remember if it was discussed here or not, but there was a thread on twitter talking about the consequences of the sanctions to the Russian airline industry. Essentially, they had 2-3 weeks before they were pretty much shut down. Lack of parts, lack of maintenance,  - which leads to lack of insurance/permission to fly over other countries, etc. Well, it's proceeding as predicted:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/bermuda-revokes-licences-russian-operated-planes-over-safety-concerns-2022-03-13/

Putin really screwed Russia.

[Blender Bender]

I can't remember if it was discussed here or not, but there was a thread on twitter talking about the consequences of the sanctions to the Russian airline industry. Essentially, they had 2-3 weeks before they were pretty much shut down. Lack of parts, lack of maintenance,  - which leads to lack of insurance/permission to fly over other countries, etc. Well, it's proceeding as predicted:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/bermuda-revokes-licences-russian-operated-planes-over-safety-concerns-2022-03-13/

Putin really screwed Russia.

Very good. To hear.

[SunnyDays]

@Abe, how do you see this war as spreading to Moscow?  Do you believe the Ukrainians will somehow infiltrate?  I can’t see the US getting involved and the Russians themselves seem pretty much propagandized.

[BicycleB]

@Abe, how do you see this war as spreading to Moscow?  Do you believe the Ukrainians will somehow infiltrate?  I can’t see the US getting involved and the Russians themselves seem pretty much propagandized.

While waiting for Abe - I have a friend in personal communication with Ukrianians and also at least one Russian; these are personal contacts. Friend asserts that Ukrainians infiltrating Russia is quite possible because they look alike and in many cases speak the same language. Any territory seized by Russia is at risk to become a viable path of travel and sabotage.

[lemanfan]

I can't remember if it was discussed here or not, but there was a thread on twitter talking about the consequences of the sanctions to the Russian airline industry. Essentially, they had 2-3 weeks before they were pretty much shut down. Lack of parts, lack of maintenance,  - which leads to lack of insurance/permission to fly over other countries, etc. Well, it's proceeding as predicted:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/bermuda-revokes-licences-russian-operated-planes-over-safety-concerns-2022-03-13/

Putin really screwed Russia.

I posted this a couple of pages back. 

Thanks, interesting.

[alsoknownasDean]

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

I feel the 'let's hope there's an uprising against the leadership' idea is unlikely to happen.

Hasn't happened in Cuba, Iran or North Korea, among others. Especially hard when the leadership controls all information flows and there's violent cronies that can respond to anyone who doesn't toe the line.

[Abe]

@Abe, how do you see this war as spreading to Moscow?  Do you believe the Ukrainians will somehow infiltrate?  I can’t see the US getting involved and the Russians themselves seem pretty much propagandized.

Agree with Bicycle B - attacks on military targets are part of war. Shelling of civilians is unforgivable and unforgettable. Attacks on civilians who live next to you and look / talk similarly is unforgivable and stupid. Not even the strongest police state can protect such a large land border from infiltration.

[Abe]

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

I feel the 'let's hope there's an uprising against the leadership' idea is unlikely to happen.

Hasn't happened in Cuba, Iran or North Korea, among others. Especially hard when the leadership controls all information flows and there's violent cronies that can respond to anyone who doesn't toe the line.

Civilian uprising against autocrats are rarely organized or successful. I think the aim is to  convince the autocrats in Russia (and military) that this is Putin’s war and not theirs.

[OtherJen]

So, I think these sanctions have to make things real bad for the guys on the bottom before change is sought.  I hope I am wrong,.......again.

I feel the 'let's hope there's an uprising against the leadership' idea is unlikely to happen.

Hasn't happened in Cuba, Iran or North Korea, among others. Especially hard when the leadership controls all information flows and there's violent cronies that can respond to anyone who doesn't toe the line.

Civilian uprising against autocrats are rarely organized or successful. I think the aim is to  convince the autocrats in Russia (and military) that this is Putin’s war and not theirs.

Yes, the strategy seems to be to make his inner circle uncomfortable enough to end things themselves. Of course, that's assuming that his inner circle is primarily mercenary and isn't packed with true believers.

[zolotiyeruki]

Civilian uprising against autocrats are rarely organized or successful. I think the aim is to  convince the autocrats in Russia (and military) that this is Putin’s war and not theirs.

Yes, the strategy seems to be to make his inner circle uncomfortable enough to end things themselves. Of course, that's assuming that his inner circle is primarily mercenary and isn't packed with true believers.

What I've heard, however, is that the inner circle is now more populated by the strongmen than oligarchs, and that the oligarchs have less influence than ever.

[pecunia]

Civilian uprising against autocrats are rarely organized or successful. I think the aim is to  convince the autocrats in Russia (and military) that this is Putin’s war and not theirs.

Yes, the strategy seems to be to make his inner circle uncomfortable enough to end things themselves. Of course, that's assuming that his inner circle is primarily mercenary and isn't packed with true believers.

What I've heard, however, is that the inner circle is now more populated by the strongmen than oligarchs, and that the oligarchs have less influence than ever.

What exactly are strongmen?  Are these like paid thugs to act as body guards?  It's gotta be a hell of a way to live.  Despite the best efforts of the propagandists, the average Ivan in Russia ain't gonna love him after this war.  The war critters ain't gonna love him either after Generals have been dying and the military has been humiliated.  Ukrainians ain't gonna be fond of him and they say there are a lot of them living in Russia.  The rich Oligarchs don't like him any more cuz a lot of them ain't so rich no more.  These guys like their yachts and stuff.  He surely has to watch his back the rest of his life.  No fun at all.  He still may be taken out because he is bad for business.

[former player]

Civilian uprising against autocrats are rarely organized or successful. I think the aim is to  convince the autocrats in Russia (and military) that this is Putin’s war and not theirs.

Yes, the strategy seems to be to make his inner circle uncomfortable enough to end things themselves. Of course, that's assuming that his inner circle is primarily mercenary and isn't packed with true believers.

What I've heard, however, is that the inner circle is now more populated by the strongmen than oligarchs, and that the oligarchs have less influence than ever.

What exactly are strongmen?  Are these like paid thugs to act as body guards?  It's gotta be a hell of a way to live.  Despite the best efforts of the propagandists, the average Ivan in Russia ain't gonna love him after this war.  The war critters ain't gonna love him either after Generals have been dying and the military has been humiliated.  Ukrainians ain't gonna be fond of him and they say there are a lot of them living in Russia.  The rich Oligarchs don't like him any more cuz a lot of them ain't so rich no more.  These guys like their yachts and stuff.  He surely has to watch his back the rest of his life.  No fun at all.  He still may be taken out because he is bad for business.

He's already watching his back: you don't think those long tables and groups on the other side of the room are because of covid, do you?   There was a recent picture of him closely surrounded by about 20 air stewardesses (all women) who were both unlikely to try to assasinate him and more likely to have covid, which was a clear tell that all his other very distanced meetings are about personal safety not covid.

The only people he still talks to and trusts are the thugs he knew from his early political days in St Petersburg.

[Psychstache]

Civilian uprising against autocrats are rarely organized or successful. I think the aim is to  convince the autocrats in Russia (and military) that this is Putin’s war and not theirs.

Yes, the strategy seems to be to make his inner circle uncomfortable enough to end things themselves. Of course, that's assuming that his inner circle is primarily mercenary and isn't packed with true believers.

What I've heard, however, is that the inner circle is now more populated by the strongmen than oligarchs, and that the oligarchs have less influence than ever.

What exactly are strongmen? 

Oligarchs outsource their assassinations. Strongmen take the mustachian route and DIY.

[Just Joe]

One of the overseas oligarchs did put a $1M bounty on Putin's head.

[former player]

One of the overseas oligarchs did put a $1M bounty on Putin's head.

Not enough.

[SunnyDays]

I wonder if he has tasters?  If his cook(s) can be bought, that's an easy way to eliminate him.

[partgypsy]

@Abe, how do you see this war as spreading to Moscow?  Do you believe the Ukrainians will somehow infiltrate?  I can’t see the US getting involved and the Russians themselves seem pretty much propagandized.

While waiting for Abe - I have a friend in personal communication with Ukrianians and also at least one Russian; these are personal contacts. Friend asserts that Ukrainians infiltrating Russia is quite possible because they look alike and in many cases speak the same language. Any territory seized by Russia is at risk to become a viable path of travel and sabotage.

I was just thinking to myself, that what Russia is doing, is a sure fired way to create home grown rebels and terrorists. But If Putin rules by fear, any kind of terrorists attacks by Ukrainians, will just make Putin stronger, because a) he doesn't care if Russians die(a lot of evidence he was behind the apartment bombings pinned on Chechnya), and fear increases nationalism, fear of the Other. So maybe this is all a feature, not a bug?