Ukraine

[Poundwise]

It's looking really, really, really bad for Mariupol. For a while some helicopters were secretly getting in supplies, but it looks like the Russians are onto them.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61035565

..Bretton Woods post-WW2 US-led global order versus multi-polar Eurasianism. .. true test has not yet come.

well, if so, maybe Russia should be waging this invasion a little bit better. Maybe the true test is if Russia can hold together, and not break up into even smaller pieces

Of course, it's two-sided: can the western alliance see past its myopic abandonment of fossil fuels (i.e. Germany; France has done quite well with nuclear power), versus: can Russia survive the prestige-hit due to its incoherent military (but don't forget Russia could be much more destructive if it wanted to be; if Putin feels truly cornered, we will see what's actually possible). That is what I mean by "true tests". What we've seen so far may be a prelude to more commital decisions.

Of course, the West could be much more destructive if we wanted to be.

Of course, but if you take Russia at all seriously, we are talking about flavors of nuclear war at this point.

Well, our having nukes ought to work as an equally strong deterrent to the Russians if (as in the words of Sting) "the Russians love their children, too."  Of course they do, but I guess what everybody fears is that Putin doesn't love the Russian children, and would easily expend them as long as he felt he was personally safe.

I wonder what we would do if Russia decided to use nukes on Ukraine?

[zolotiyeruki]

Well, our having nukes ought to work as an equally strong deterrent to the Russians if (as in the words of Sting) "the Russians love their children, too."  Of course they do, but I guess what everybody fears is that Putin doesn't love the Russian children, and would easily expend them as long as he felt he was personally safe.

I wonder what we would do if Russia decided to use nukes on Ukraine?

Ironically enough, this could also be an argument against the fear that Putin will use nukes. As long as he personally is in no danger, he is free to feed the Ukrainian meat grinder with conventional forces, with no need for nukes.

[Travis]

Well, our having nukes ought to work as an equally strong deterrent to the Russians if (as in the words of Sting) "the Russians love their children, too."  Of course they do, but I guess what everybody fears is that Putin doesn't love the Russian children, and would easily expend them as long as he felt he was personally safe.

I wonder what we would do if Russia decided to use nukes on Ukraine?

Ironically enough, this could also be an argument against the fear that Putin will use nukes. As long as he personally is in no danger, he is free to feed the Ukrainian meat grinder with conventional forces, with no need for nukes.

Nuking Ukraine is the same thing as nuking Belarus and the more populated parts of Russia. Irradiated dirt likes to fly.

[lemanfan]

Nuking Ukraine is the same thing as nuking Belarus and the more populated parts of Russia. Irradiated dirt likes to fly.

I'm certainly no expert, but in my understanding, a single small tactical nuke (1 kiloton?) detonated at a suitable altitude so that the fireball does not reach the ground (air burst)q, does not actually create a severe Chernobyl-like radioactive cloud. Yes, still a massive amount of destruction, some radioactivity, and definitely over the magic line of actually using a nuke... but in practical destructive power, such a nuke would not be much worse than what the Russians do with traditional bombings of some cities already today even if it takes days or weeks (including thermobaric bombs).

On the other hand, one nuke might be the line that creates escalation ....  And I might be wrong.

[PeteD01]

This is a quote from the referenced article by Phillips O´Brien:

"So much had been written about the Russian armed forces’ modernisation and improvement over the last decade that that it was widely believed that the Russians possessed one of the largest and most powerful armies in the world until a few weeks ago. The army might not be on par with the US or China, but it was certainly capable of conquering a military minnow like Ukraine – or so the logic went.

The six weeks of war in Ukraine – which have seen Russian forces fail to take Kyiv and fall back elsewhere – has dented the army’s reputation. And now it seems that the Russian military may be running out of options in the rest of the country too."


The Russian army is running out of options
9 April 2022, 4:00am (UTC)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-russian-army-is-running-out-of-options

[Tyson]

No point in nuking Ukraine as the Russians want to occupy it after the war.  Nukes would make that occupation less pleasant.

[PeteD01]

"Vladimir Putin is a bad strategist. He does not understand the relationship between force and politics, and he is incapable of predicting international reactions to his ham-fisted military campaigns. Putin’s blunders began in 2014, with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in East Ukraine — actions that provoked widespread condemnation and suspicion about his real ambitions. With few friends left, Putin was reduced to propping up murderous authoritarian regimes in Syria and Belarus. Today, his misuse of Russian power is leading Russia towards impoverishment and isolation. His ill-considered invasion of Ukraine has galvanized international opposition, crippled the Russian economy, and overstretched the Russian military. Putin is making Russia a pariah state."
...
"Political and military leaders often worry about brilliant rivals, but the problem today is different. Instead of the danger of being outwitted, the danger is the fallout from Putin’s mistakes.
Bad strategists aggravate three strategic dilemmas. The first has to do with misperception. Wartime signaling is always a fraught business because misinformation abounds, because leaders operate under stress, and because adversaries have reason to deceive one another. This is more complicated today because Putin appears increasingly isolated, and Kremlin decision-making has become grotesque."


PUTIN’S FOLLY: A CASE STUDY OF AN INEPT STRATEGIST
JOSHUA ROVNERMARCH 16, 2022

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putins-folly-a-case-study-of-an-inept-strategist/

[former player]

No point in nuking Ukraine as the Russians want to occupy it after the war.  Nukes would make that occupation less pleasant.

The Russians want to destroy Ukraine more than they want to occupy it.

(Plus, they could nuke Kyiv, abandon it and set up in Kharkiv.)

ETA: I don't think Putin will unleash the nukes, though.  He's reportedly a health nut that travels with a cancer specialist, he's not going to risk a possible increase in radiation in his part of the world.

[former player]

China is not going to help Putin now, it has very significant issues of its own. 25 million people in Shanghai are under covid lockdown and food distribution has broken down with insufficient supplies getting through and chaos at distribution centres.  People are going hungry while the authorities are flying drones around apartment blocks telling people not to go onto their balconies to protest.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1512734595485106179.html

The US government is advising its citizens to reconsider travel to China -

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/china-travel-advisory.html

[Sibley]

It is fascinating to see glimpses of the effects of the sanctions on Russia. I'm not spending tons of time following it, but a few things I've seen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-09/russia-s-first-default-in-a-century-looks-all-but-inevitable-now?srnd=premium-europe&sref=P9fitWWO - A couple of sovereign debt payments were made in rubles, which is technically a violation of the contracts. They do have 30 day grace periods, but Russia may not be able to talk their way out. Various businesses are now in default because they've struggled to navigate the new restrictions. The US Treasury has blocked access to bank accounts (in response to reports of events in Bucha). More extreme impacts are a matter of time.

Russian shipyards are shutting down due to lack of foreign parts (translator needed). https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/04/09/rosijski-verfi-zupynyayut-vyrobnycztvo-korabliv-cherez-brak-inozemnogo-komplektovannya/

Cayman Islands froze billions in Russian assets. Seriously, since when does the Cayman Islands, that haven for tax evasion, freeze assets?!? https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/9/7338305/

Auto sales are collapsing, and a variety of automakers (nonRussian) are not shipping spare parts. China is happy to enter the market though. Oh, and a Russian automaker is making/planning on making vehicles that will not include foreign parts, such as airbags and anti-lock breaks. https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/russian-car-sales-collapse-ukraine-war-leads-supply-price-shocks

Report on twitter that due to inflation, basic foodstuffs in Russia have anti-theft devices. https://mobile.twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1512666586829754370

Youtube blocked the Russian Parliament channel. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/youtube-blocks-russian-parliament-channel-drawing-ire-officials-2022-04-09/?utm_source=reddit.com

Vehicles registered in Russia or Belarus are not necessarily being allowed to cross into the EU. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1512773130397310984?s=20&t=IHhsbkQ-gzM1Ik6u3Unw_Q

Slightly different topic, but Boris Johnson went to Kyiv and took a walk with Zelensky. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgDnOIGPzTk
I know Boris Johnson is problematic in other ways, but respect to him for that trip.

[Sibley]

Saw this, about Russia using the "denazification" language on Lativa, don't really see other sources (but also not looking everywhere).
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512491275630559244?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1512491275630559244%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-20706380201974456138.ampproject.net%2F2203172113000%2Fframe.html

Lativa is part of NATO.  And besides, Russia still has that war they started in Ukraine, did Putin forget about that? Maybe he's trying to get whatever mountain he's hiding in demolished.

[Zamboni]

He's going with his normal MO: Accuse your opponent of the very crimes you are committing.

There are some truly evil people in the world.

[Travis]

China is not going to help Putin now, it has very significant issues of its own.

They don't appear to be helping with materiel, but they're still on Russia's side diplomatically and socially. They've been a consistent dissent with all the UN actions against Russia and the official line from Beijing being forced into all their schools and media spaces is that the massacres are fake.

[Travis]

Nuking Ukraine is the same thing as nuking Belarus and the more populated parts of Russia. Irradiated dirt likes to fly.

I'm certainly no expert, but in my understanding, a single small tactical nuke (1 kiloton?) detonated at a suitable altitude so that the fireball does not reach the ground (air burst)q, does not actually create a severe Chernobyl-like radioactive cloud. Yes, still a massive amount of destruction, some radioactivity, and definitely over the magic line of actually using a nuke... but in practical destructive power, such a nuke would not be much worse than what the Russians do with traditional bombings of some cities already today even if it takes days or weeks (including thermobaric bombs).

On the other hand, one nuke might be the line that creates escalation ....  And I might be wrong.

I'm not the nuclear engineer in the family so I don't know all the nuances, but a nuke of any size crosses every line. As a planner in Moscow I wouldn't want to bank on my nuke not creating fallout since the winds go straight from Kyiv to Moscow. That said, the troops on the ground appear to have had no idea what Chernobyl was. The dug up the ground, burned wood, ate, drank, and slept in a hot zone. One of the plant workers said they looted everything they could walk away with, including items that were definitely radioactive. A Russian soldier handled a piece of cobalt with his bare hands.

[pecunia]

Saw this, about Russia using the "denazification" language on Lativa, don't really see other sources (but also not looking everywhere).
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512491275630559244?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1512491275630559244%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-20706380201974456138.ampproject.net%2F2203172113000%2Fframe.html

Lativa is part of NATO.  And besides, Russia still has that war they started in Ukraine, did Putin forget about that? Maybe he's trying to get whatever mountain he's hiding in demolished.

I saw a notation someplace where they called the Estonians Nazis as well.  Wow Putin has Nazis to the South.  Putin has Nazis to the West.  Putin sits at all these big tables where he isn't too close to anyone.  I think he thinks people are out to get him.  He is not paranoid, they are out to get him.

[PDXTabs]

That said, the troops on the ground appear to have had no idea what Chernobyl was. The dug up the ground, burned wood, ate, drank, and slept in a hot zone. One of the plant workers said they looted everything they could walk away with, including items that were definitely radioactive. A Russian soldier handled a piece of cobalt with his bare hands.

I find it kind of hard to believe that they didn't know about Chernobyl, but maybe. I honestly don't know how bad that is. But they certainly aren't the only ones eating and digging in the exclusion zone. But, fun fact, there isn't just one exclusion zone. There are three.

The 30-kilometre zone is estimated to be home to 197 samosely living in 11 villages as well as the town of Chernobyl. This number is in decline, down from previous estimates of 314 in 2007 and 1,200 in 1986. These residents are senior citizens, with an average age of 63. After repeated attempts at expulsion, the authorities have accepted their presence and allowed them to stay with limited supporting services. Residence is now informally permitted by the Ukrainian government.
...
Chernobyl town, located outside of the 10 kilometre Exclusion Zone, was evacuated following the accident, but now serves as a base to support the workers within the Exclusion Zone. Its amenities include administrative buildings, general stores, a canteen, a hotel, and a bus station. Unlike other areas within the Exclusion Zone, Chernobyl town is actively maintained by workers, such as lawn areas being mowed and autumn leaves being collected. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_Exclusion_Zone

But it sounds like these soldiers were mostly in the most contaminated area right by the reactors digging trenches? I wouldn't want to be them. But honestly, I might rather dig a trench in the exclusion zone than shell a Ukrainian city.

EDITed to add: I believe that the most contaminated part of the exclusion zone outside of the sarcophagus is considered to be the basement of Pripyat City Hospital #126 because that's where all the clothes from the first responders on the night of the explosion were discarded.

[Travis]

But it sounds like these soldiers were mostly in the most contaminated area right by the reactors digging trenches? I wouldn't want to be them. But honestly, I might rather dig a trench in the exclusion zone than shell a Ukrainian city.

This video shows the main "camp site" being examined. You can take a guess from the drone how close they were to the reactors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frIe7gk7jRI&ab_channel=TheSun

[PeteD01]

"The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the seizure of Mariupol. There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces’ ability to do so and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively despite a reported simplification of the Russian command structure. This update, which we offer on a day without significant military operations on which to report, attempts to explain and unpack some of the complexities involved in making these assessments."



RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 9
Apr 9, 2022 - Press ISW

Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird

April 9, 4:30 pm ET

Special Edition: Russian Military Capabilities Assessments

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9

[pecunia]

"The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the seizure of Mariupol. There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces’ ability to do so and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively despite a reported simplification of the Russian command structure. This update, which we offer on a day without significant military operations on which to report, attempts to explain and unpack some of the complexities involved in making these assessments."



RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 9
Apr 9, 2022 - Press ISW

Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird

April 9, 4:30 pm ET

Special Edition: Russian Military Capabilities Assessments

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9

A lot of discussion was given on the state of the Russian forces and the difficulty in retaining and obtaining new troops in the document.  However, information on available Ukrainian resources was scant.  Do you think this was intentional?

The Russians have held some the disputed territory since 2014.  If the Ukrainians attempt to take it back will this "turn the tables" on them and make them an invading force?  Russians claim a majority of the people in these regions desire to break away from Ukraine.  Will these people be able to use the same guerrilla tactics then against the Ukrainians?

I cannot understand why any one would want to become part of Russia after learning of their war crimes.

[Sibley]

"The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the seizure of Mariupol. There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces’ ability to do so and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively despite a reported simplification of the Russian command structure. This update, which we offer on a day without significant military operations on which to report, attempts to explain and unpack some of the complexities involved in making these assessments."



RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 9
Apr 9, 2022 - Press ISW

Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird

April 9, 4:30 pm ET

Special Edition: Russian Military Capabilities Assessments

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9

A lot of discussion was given on the state of the Russian forces and the difficulty in retaining and obtaining new troops in the document.  However, information on available Ukrainian resources was scant.  Do you think this was intentional?

The Russians have held some the disputed territory since 2014.  If the Ukrainians attempt to take it back will this "turn the tables" on them and make them an invading force?  Russians claim a majority of the people in these regions desire to break away from Ukraine.  Will these people be able to use the same guerrilla tactics then against the Ukrainians?

I cannot understand why any one would want to become part of Russia after learning of their war crimes.

Of course Russia says a majority of the people want to break away. Do you believe anything the Russians say without external evidence? Because I don't.

I'm not so sure that those people are going to be all that welcoming to Russian troops. Time will tell of course, but Russia has held the disputed territory since 2014 so plenty of people have gotten a good look at what that means.

This was quite illuminating to me:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504103672019513345

[pecunia]

"The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the seizure of Mariupol. There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces’ ability to do so and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively despite a reported simplification of the Russian command structure. This update, which we offer on a day without significant military operations on which to report, attempts to explain and unpack some of the complexities involved in making these assessments."



RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 9
Apr 9, 2022 - Press ISW

Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird

April 9, 4:30 pm ET

Special Edition: Russian Military Capabilities Assessments

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9

A lot of discussion was given on the state of the Russian forces and the difficulty in retaining and obtaining new troops in the document.  However, information on available Ukrainian resources was scant.  Do you think this was intentional?

The Russians have held some the disputed territory since 2014.  If the Ukrainians attempt to take it back will this "turn the tables" on them and make them an invading force?  Russians claim a majority of the people in these regions desire to break away from Ukraine.  Will these people be able to use the same guerrilla tactics then against the Ukrainians?

I cannot understand why any one would want to become part of Russia after learning of their war crimes.

Of course Russia says a majority of the people want to break away. Do you believe anything the Russians say without external evidence? Because I don't.

I'm not so sure that those people are going to be all that welcoming to Russian troops. Time will tell of course, but Russia has held the disputed territory since 2014 so plenty of people have gotten a good look at what that means.

This was quite illuminating to me:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504103672019513345

As the link showed, Putin certainly knows how to use gangster tactics.  Unlike the old Soviet Union, he is not even espousing an ideology.  He and the oligarchs run Russia as a gangster fiefdom and uses gangster tactics to gobble the territory of others.  Sometimes, I think all these "Western" statesmen are confused by that.  This trickles down hill.  Certainly, many of the invading soldiers have acted like gangsters.  Russia is an old European country, but I think the honor thing they had years ago is no longer a part of their makeup.  Good link.

[PeteD01]

"The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the seizure of Mariupol. There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces’ ability to do so and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively despite a reported simplification of the Russian command structure. This update, which we offer on a day without significant military operations on which to report, attempts to explain and unpack some of the complexities involved in making these assessments."



RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 9
Apr 9, 2022 - Press ISW

Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird

April 9, 4:30 pm ET

Special Edition: Russian Military Capabilities Assessments

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9

A lot of discussion was given on the state of the Russian forces and the difficulty in retaining and obtaining new troops in the document.  However, information on available Ukrainian resources was scant.  Do you think this was intentional?

Not intentional on the part of the authors, but certainly intentional on the part of Ukraine. Ukraine is running a professional battlefield intelligence/counterintelligence  operation and Russia doesn't.


The Russians have held some the disputed territory since 2014.  If the Ukrainians attempt to take it back will this "turn the tables" on them and make them an invading force?  Russians claim a majority of the people in these regions desire to break away from Ukraine.  Will these people be able to use the same guerrilla tactics then against the Ukrainians?

Russia is lying, there will not be an insurgency to suppress in these regions.


I cannot understand why any one would want to become part of Russia after learning of their war crimes.

[Sibley]

I am continually amazed that everything Putin didn't want to happen is happening because of his attack on Ukraine. He really miscalculated.

https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-deploy-military-force-defend-borders-against-russia-stoltenberg-2022-4?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds&utm_source=reddit.comworse.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Saw this, about Russia using the "denazification" language on Lativa, don't really see other sources (but also not looking everywhere).
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512491275630559244?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1512491275630559244%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-20706380201974456138.ampproject.net%2F2203172113000%2Fframe.html

Lativa is part of NATO.  And besides, Russia still has that war they started in Ukraine, did Putin forget about that? Maybe he's trying to get whatever mountain he's hiding in demolished.

I saw a notation someplace where they called the Estonians Nazis as well.  Wow Putin has Nazis to the South.  Putin has Nazis to the West.  Putin sits at all these big tables where he isn't too close to anyone.  I think he thinks people are out to get him.  He is not paranoid, they are out to get him.

"Nazis" is a term applied to the entire Western liberal order, and in that spirit, Dmitri Medvedev recently said  the goal is to "...build an open Eurasia – from Lisbon to Vladivostok"

Then there is this Russian official (i.e. state-endorsed) article on what "denazification" entails (parts of this are so extreme and deranged, it made me think maybe someone on Twitter with a blue checkmark was writing it):

"However, in addition to the top, a significant part of the masses, which are passive Nazis, accomplices of Nazism, are also guilty. They supported and indulged Nazi power. The just punishment of this part of the population is possible only as bearing the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system, carried out with the utmost care and discretion in relation to civilians. Further denazification of this mass of the population consists in re-education, which is achieved by ideological repression (suppression) of Nazi attitudes and strict censorship: not only in the political sphere, but also necessarily in the sphere of culture and education."

Note that is via google translate which I could tell was not doing a great job everywhere but I can't read Russian well enough to get through such a long article.

[Poundwise]

@lost_in_the_endless_aisle , it looks like the original article was taken down. But I did find these discussions which confirm what you gathered from the Google translation.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-editorial-ukraine-identity-1.6407921
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_Russia_should_do_with_Ukraine

Going back to the subject of what kind of arms aid would be effective, here's a good discussion from March 24.  https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/a-call-for-arms-weapons-that-ukraine.html

"Conversely, to protect Ukrainian assets on the ground and make sure Russia does not attain aerial superiority, it is in dire need of more potent air defence assets. Although MANPADS (both foreign-delivered and Ukrainian) have been devastatingly effective in the conflict, longer ranged systems would allow defenders more freedom on friendly territory, in effect enabling more effective defence and counter attack. At the present, the only publically known assets Ukraine has received in this area were abandoned by Russia, whose soldiers to date left some twenty air defence systems behind in various battles and retreats. [1] The problem with most foreign additions of air defences is that they would require a Ukrainian crew to train for a long time before attaining proper operating skills, whereas the equipment is needed now. Some have even suggested Turkey should deliver its S-400 SAM system, which aside from this same issue also begs the question why only they are considered responsible for delivering strategic SAMs. [4] Pragmatically, Ukraine would likely benefit most from mobile medium-to-long ranged air defences with which it is already acquainted, such as the 9K33 Osa that could be supplied by Bulgaria, Greece or Poland, the Buk-M1 by Finland, the Tor-M1 from Greece and the S-300PMU(-1) from Bulgaria, Slovakia and Greece. These could be a big help in continuing to deny Russia full control of Ukraine's air space, with both politically and financially low impact for the delivering nations. "

[Poundwise]

@lost_in_the_endless_aisle , it looks like the original article was taken down. But I did find these discussions which confirm what you gathered from the Google translation.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/kremlin-editorial-ukraine-identity-1.6407921
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_Russia_should_do_with_Ukraine

Going back to the subject of what kind of arms aid would be effective, here's a good discussion from March 24.  https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/a-call-for-arms-weapons-that-ukraine.html

Conversely, to protect Ukrainian assets on the ground and make sure Russia does not attain aerial superiority, it is in dire need of more potent air defence assets. Although MANPADS (both foreign-delivered and Ukrainian) have been devastatingly effective in the conflict, longer ranged systems would allow defenders more freedom on friendly territory, in effect enabling more effective defence and counter attack. At the present, the only publically known assets Ukraine has received in this area were abandoned by Russia, whose soldiers to date left some twenty air defence systems behind in various battles and retreats. [1] The problem with most foreign additions of air defences is that they would require a Ukrainian crew to train for a long time before attaining proper operating skills, whereas the equipment is needed now. Some have even suggested Turkey should deliver its S-400 SAM system, which aside from this same issue also begs the question why only they are considered responsible for delivering strategic SAMs. [4] Pragmatically, Ukraine would likely benefit most from mobile medium-to-long ranged air defences with which it is already acquainted, such as the 9K33 Osa that could be supplied by Bulgaria, Greece or Poland, the Buk-M1 by Finland, the Tor-M1 from Greece and the S-300PMU(-1) from Bulgaria, Slovakia and Greece. These could be a big help in continuing to deny Russia full control of Ukraine's air space, with both politically and financially low impact for the delivering nations. "

[TomTX]

Which party has the crazier politicians would certainly make for an interesting debate, but that's probably out of place in this thread, so I will forebear :)

Not objectively.  One party used unprecedented tactics to stuff the Supreme Court.  One party has been consistently undermining the democracy in favor of autocracy for years, possibly decades. One party* literally attempted to overthrow the US Government and invaded the Capitol with the objective of overthrowing the newly elected President - acts directly and repeatedly instigated and supported by the party leader.

More on topic for this thread: That party leader has repeatedly praised Vladimir Putin, even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The false "bothsides" argument here is disgusting. https://www2.palomar.edu/users/bthompson/False%20Equivalency.html

Of course, I note you are in a self-proclaimed state of denial.

*For the small percentage of people who haven't been paying attention "One party" in this context refers to the Grand Old Party (GOP) commonly referred to as Republicans.

[Sibley]

Lebanon is in trouble as regards to wheat. If you'll recall, they had that huge explosion a couple years ago which took out their grain storage. Apparently they haven't been able to replace the silos, so what they can store in country is limited.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/03/01/lebanon-seeks-us-help-to-import-wheat-in-move-away-from-ukraine-market/

Well, the last shipment of wheat they got from Ukraine was ruined. And they're low. They got the vast majority of their wheat from Ukraine, and that's not available anymore.
https://twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1513152429122109452

[clifp]

Lebanon is in trouble as regards to wheat. If you'll recall, they had that huge explosion a couple years ago which took out their grain storage. Apparently they haven't been able to replace the silos, so what they can store in country is limited.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/03/01/lebanon-seeks-us-help-to-import-wheat-in-move-away-from-ukraine-market/

Well, the last shipment of wheat they got from Ukraine was ruined. And they're low. They got the vast majority of their wheat from Ukraine, and that's not available anymore.
https://twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1513152429122109452

Pretty much all of the aid agency get their wheat from Ukraine, it is cheaper and easier to ship from Ukraine to Africa than Canada, or US ports.  So in addition to Lebanon, the folks in Yemen, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eiteria, Syria, Congo, Chad, Sierra Leone are all in serious trouble. If Ukraine can hold Odesa and something can be done to  let grain shipping continue through the summer there is some hope.  But it is not only their own lives Ukraine is fighting for, poor people all of the world benefit.

[clifp]

The 60 minute interview with Zelensky is the best I've heard. He is an extremely effective communicator.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-military-aid-60-minutes-2022-04-10/

[Travis]

Lebanon is in trouble as regards to wheat. If you'll recall, they had that huge explosion a couple years ago which took out their grain storage. Apparently they haven't been able to replace the silos, so what they can store in country is limited.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/03/01/lebanon-seeks-us-help-to-import-wheat-in-move-away-from-ukraine-market/

Well, the last shipment of wheat they got from Ukraine was ruined. And they're low. They got the vast majority of their wheat from Ukraine, and that's not available anymore.
https://twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1513152429122109452

Pretty much all of the aid agency get their wheat from Ukraine, it is cheaper and easier to ship from Ukraine to Africa than Canada, or US ports.  So in addition to Lebanon, the folks in Yemen, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eiteria, Syria, Congo, Chad, Sierra Leone are all in serious trouble. If Ukraine can hold Odesa and something can be done to  let grain shipping continue through the summer there is some hope.  But it is not only their own lives Ukraine is fighting for, poor people all of the world benefit.

There's hundreds of tones of it on ships stuck in the Black Sea because the Russian navy won't let them out.

[Travis]

"The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the seizure of Mariupol. There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces’ ability to do so and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively despite a reported simplification of the Russian command structure. This update, which we offer on a day without significant military operations on which to report, attempts to explain and unpack some of the complexities involved in making these assessments."



RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 9
Apr 9, 2022 - Press ISW

Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird

April 9, 4:30 pm ET

Special Edition: Russian Military Capabilities Assessments

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9

A lot of discussion was given on the state of the Russian forces and the difficulty in retaining and obtaining new troops in the document.  However, information on available Ukrainian resources was scant.  Do you think this was intentional?

The Russians have held some the disputed territory since 2014.  If the Ukrainians attempt to take it back will this "turn the tables" on them and make them an invading force?  Russians claim a majority of the people in these regions desire to break away from Ukraine.  Will these people be able to use the same guerrilla tactics then against the Ukrainians?

I cannot understand why any one would want to become part of Russia after learning of their war crimes.

Of course Russia says a majority of the people want to break away. Do you believe anything the Russians say without external evidence? Because I don't.

I'm not so sure that those people are going to be all that welcoming to Russian troops. Time will tell of course, but Russia has held the disputed territory since 2014 so plenty of people have gotten a good look at what that means.

This was quite illuminating to me:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504103672019513345

The troops from the "breakaway" regions in Donetsk are not only conscripts, but many are basically kidnapped into service. Right off the street.

[Travis]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513402516628996097.html

Breakdown of Russian tank losses to date.

TLDR: Russia has probably lost a third of all the tanks it brought to the war, and a quarter of the tanks in its active duty force. The variable now is how many of the tanks in storage are better than rust buckets? And where will they find the people to crew them?

[pecunia]

Lebanon is in trouble as regards to wheat. If you'll recall, they had that huge explosion a couple years ago which took out their grain storage. Apparently they haven't been able to replace the silos, so what they can store in country is limited.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/03/01/lebanon-seeks-us-help-to-import-wheat-in-move-away-from-ukraine-market/

Well, the last shipment of wheat they got from Ukraine was ruined. And they're low. They got the vast majority of their wheat from Ukraine, and that's not available anymore.
https://twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1513152429122109452

Pretty much all of the aid agency get their wheat from Ukraine, it is cheaper and easier to ship from Ukraine to Africa than Canada, or US ports.  So in addition to Lebanon, the folks in Yemen, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eiteria, Syria, Congo, Chad, Sierra Leone are all in serious trouble. If Ukraine can hold Odesa and something can be done to  let grain shipping continue through the summer there is some hope.  But it is not only their own lives Ukraine is fighting for, poor people all of the world benefit.

There's hundreds of tones of it on ships stuck in the Black Sea because the Russian navy won't let them out.

They, apparently, aren't just at war with Ukraine, but the entire world.  Good thing the world is supporting them.  It's the right thing to do.

[PeteD01]

"Putin is a former KGB officer who came of age during the Cold War. Intelligence officers, particularly those running operations in the foreign field, are risk-takers but not gamblers. Rarely is there a Hail Mary pass in espionage.
Seeking to make this conflict an existential clash of civilizations was neither emotional nor hardly out of character for Putin, given his background, one that includes a predisposition to employ terrorism as a tool.
Catherine Belton, author of "Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took on the West," wrote that during his KGB assignment in Dresden -- then East Germany -- Putin worked in support of members of the Red Army Faction, the far-left terrorist group responsible for bombings, kidnappings and assassinations across West Germany in the '70s and '80s."


Opinion: Seeing the world through Putin's eyes
Opinion by Douglas London

Updated 6:32 AM ET, Mon April 11, 2022

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/11/opinions/understanding-putin-worldview-london/index.html

[PeteD01]

Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko

This is an important 20 tweet 🧵thread in understanding the terminal decline of Russian Army combat vehicle firepower in Ukraine.

Read it all the way through a couple of times to fully absorb the implications👇👇:


"Thread. Open Source effort from @oryxspioenkop has tallied a total of 467 Russian tanks have been visual confirmed lost since 2/24. So how bad is it? (1/n)"



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513402516628996097.html

[zolotiyeruki]

This is an important 20 tweet 🧵thread in understanding the terminal decline of Russian Army combat vehicle firepower in Ukraine.

Read it all the way through a couple of times to fully absorb the implications👇👇:

tl;dr: Russia is going to be short on tanks in the near future, which will hinder their offensive capabilities.

That may be true, but I wouldn't get too excited about that yet.  I suspect Putin will be happy to settle for his land bridge to Crimea, and the Russians are close to securing that.  After that, they can settle into a defensive posture, where tanks are less of an asset.  At that point, Ukraine has to retake that land, which I suppose makes things harder for them and easier for Russia.  That said, that's a long, skinny (backed up against the sea) front that the Russians would have to defend.

[pecunia]

This is an important 20 tweet 🧵thread in understanding the terminal decline of Russian Army combat vehicle firepower in Ukraine.

Read it all the way through a couple of times to fully absorb the implications👇👇:

tl;dr: Russia is going to be short on tanks in the near future, which will hinder their offensive capabilities.

That may be true, but I wouldn't get too excited about that yet.  I suspect Putin will be happy to settle for his land bridge to Crimea, and the Russians are close to securing that.  After that, they can settle into a defensive posture, where tanks are less of an asset.  At that point, Ukraine has to retake that land, which I suppose makes things harder for them and easier for Russia.  That said, that's a long, skinny (backed up against the sea) front that the Russians would have to defend.

Would the fact that they would be backed against the sea with limited retreat options be an asset or a hindrance?  Their navy could back them up, but it seems the Ukrainians have had a rather good track record sinking Russian ships.

[partgypsy]

Short answer it's not good for Ukraine (or world) to lose access to black sea
 

[Michael in ABQ]

This is an important 20 tweet 🧵thread in understanding the terminal decline of Russian Army combat vehicle firepower in Ukraine.

Read it all the way through a couple of times to fully absorb the implications👇👇:

tl;dr: Russia is going to be short on tanks in the near future, which will hinder their offensive capabilities.

That may be true, but I wouldn't get too excited about that yet.  I suspect Putin will be happy to settle for his land bridge to Crimea, and the Russians are close to securing that.  After that, they can settle into a defensive posture, where tanks are less of an asset.  At that point, Ukraine has to retake that land, which I suppose makes things harder for them and easier for Russia.  That said, that's a long, skinny (backed up against the sea) front that the Russians would have to defend.

Would the fact that they would be backed against the sea with limited retreat options be an asset or a hindrance?  Their navy could back them up, but it seems the Ukrainians have had a rather good track record sinking Russian ships.

Somewhat irrelevant unless the front was only a mile or two from the sea. Russia has captured a swath of land about 20-60 miles wide from the Sea of Azov (Black Sea) running from Crimea up to the Donbas (except the holdouts in Mariupol). Really all that matters is the main highway that connects them (E105 north to Melitopol then the E58 east to Mariupol and on to Rostov-on-Don in Russia). As long as Russia has a decent buffer along that so Ukrainian troops can't directly observe and fire on that road they're fine.

Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea from Odessa - but Mariupol was their second largest port. Russia already had access to the Black Sea from Sochi and other ports but Russian interior infrastructure (roads, rail, rivers, canals) has never been great so getting a port closer to agricultural/mineral/industrial production areas would be beneficial.

[Sibley]

Seriously, Putin? you do not have to check off all the evil villain  boxes.

Chemical attack on Mariupol being reported.

https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-southern-port-city-is-under-chemical-attack/

[zolotiyeruki]

Somewhat irrelevant unless the front was only a mile or two from the sea. Russia has captured a swath of land about 20-60 miles wide from the Sea of Azov (Black Sea) running from Crimea up to the Donbas (except the holdouts in Mariupol). Really all that matters is the main highway that connects them (E105 north to Melitopol then the E58 east to Mariupol and on to Rostov-on-Don in Russia). As long as Russia has a decent buffer along that so Ukrainian troops can't directly observe and fire on that road they're fine.

Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea from Odessa - but Mariupol was their second largest port. Russia already had access to the Black Sea from Sochi and other ports but Russian interior infrastructure (roads, rail, rivers, canals) has never been great so getting a port closer to agricultural/mineral/industrial production areas would be beneficial.

They've captured a wide swath, sure, but it's a nearly-250-mile-wide front, so it can't be densely defended.   Sure, they can concentrate on the highways, but still.  I also have to wonder about Russia's ability to defend such a long front, from a recon/intel point of view, while the Ukrainians have all sorts of NATO-provided reconnaissance.

[pecunia]

Somewhat irrelevant unless the front was only a mile or two from the sea. Russia has captured a swath of land about 20-60 miles wide from the Sea of Azov (Black Sea) running from Crimea up to the Donbas (except the holdouts in Mariupol). Really all that matters is the main highway that connects them (E105 north to Melitopol then the E58 east to Mariupol and on to Rostov-on-Don in Russia). As long as Russia has a decent buffer along that so Ukrainian troops can't directly observe and fire on that road they're fine.

Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea from Odessa - but Mariupol was their second largest port. Russia already had access to the Black Sea from Sochi and other ports but Russian interior infrastructure (roads, rail, rivers, canals) has never been great so getting a port closer to agricultural/mineral/industrial production areas would be beneficial.

They've captured a wide swath, sure, but it's a nearly-250-mile-wide front, so it can't be densely defended.   Sure, they can concentrate on the highways, but still.  I also have to wonder about Russia's ability to defend such a long front, from a recon/intel point of view, while the Ukrainians have all sorts of NATO-provided reconnaissance.

So, they want the land to avoid the expense of building a decent highway on land they already own.  Why build a highway when you can steal someone else's?

It seems like a highway would be ripe for booby traps and ambushes.

Wow!  Chemical weapons.  All those Rocky and Bullwinkle cartoons I saw as a kid appear to have a strong basis in fact.

[SunnyDays]

I would think that Ukraine would want to hold onto as much of it’s grain as it can.  It won’t be a certainty that they can plant crops this year, so why sell a valuable commodity?  The countries that depend on their wheat might find themselves short sooner than expected.

[Abe]

Seriously, Putin? you do not have to check off all the evil villain  boxes.

Chemical attack on Mariupol being reported.

https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-southern-port-city-is-under-chemical-attack/

The report is from a far-right group, I’d wait on more legitimate Ukrainian or external sources before assuming it is true. Would not be surprising, however. 

[Sibley]

Seriously, Putin? you do not have to check off all the evil villain  boxes.

Chemical attack on Mariupol being reported.

https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-southern-port-city-is-under-chemical-attack/

The report is from a far-right group, I’d wait on more legitimate Ukrainian or external sources before assuming it is true. Would not be surprising, however.

Oh of course. But still, even with that report unconfirmed the broader possibility is something that has been discussed.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-says-russian-forces-could-use-chemical-weapons-2022-04-11/

[Abe]

Seriously, Putin? you do not have to check off all the evil villain  boxes.

Chemical attack on Mariupol being reported.

https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-southern-port-city-is-under-chemical-attack/

The report is from a far-right group, I’d wait on more legitimate Ukrainian or external sources before assuming it is true. Would not be surprising, however.

Oh of course. But still, even with that report unconfirmed the broader possibility is something that has been discussed.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-says-russian-forces-could-use-chemical-weapons-2022-04-11/

I am pessimistic that even this would get Ukrainians more weapons support, though we are slowly exhausting our slow-walking of the conflict. I think the same scenario will persist of sadistic brutality for shock value, trying to get Ukraine to surrender to avoid further civilian deaths and the Russian government will face little long-term consequence once the West moves on to the next crisis.

[Radagast]

It is impressive how Putin has suddenly become the embodiment of every book and movie villain, down to the last evil tendency. And we had thought those were mere fiction.

Here's some Tolkien descriptions of Sauron/Putin that I keep thinking of:
"He was unable ever again to assume a form that appeared fair to men, but became hideous, and his power thereafter was through terror alone."
"'Hobbits as miserable slaves would please him far more than hobbits happy and free. There is such a thing as malice and revenge.' 'Revenge?' said Frodo. 'Revenge for what?'"
“It was Sam's first view of a battle of Men against Men, and he did not like it much. He was glad that he could not see the dead face. He wondered what the man's name was and where he came from; and if he was really evil of heart, or what lies or threats had led him on the long march from his home; and if he would rather have stayed there in peace.”

Aesop describes Putin:
There was once a Groom who used to spend long hours clipping and combing the Horse of which he had charge, but who daily stole a portion of his allowance of oats, and sold it for his own profit. The Horse gradually got into worse and worse condition, and at last cried to the Groom, “If you really want me to look sleek and well, you must comb me less and feed me more.”

A hungry Wolf one day saw a Lamb drinking at a stream, and wished to frame some plausible excuse for making him his prey. “What do you mean by muddling the water I am going to drink?” fiercely said he to the Lamb. “Pray forgive me,” meekly answered the Lamb; “I should be sorry in any way to displease you, but as the stream runs from you towards me, you will see that such cannot be the case.” “That’s all very well,” said the Wolf; “but you know you spoke ill of me behind my back a year ago.” “Nay, believe me,” replied the Lamb, “I was not then born.” “It must have been your brother then,” growled the Wolf. “It cannot have been, for I never had any,” answered the Lamb. “I know it was one of your lot,” rejoined the Wolf, “so make no more such idle excuses.” He then seized the poor Lamb, carried him off to the woods, and ate him.

Aesop really nailed it with that last one. There are lots of translations and various morals and applications of The Wolf and the Lamb, and all of them are right on target.
https://fablesofaesop.com/the-wolf-and-the-lamb.html

[dang1]

"Russian government will face little long-term consequence once the West moves on to the next crisis."

cynically, on the other hand, don't underestimate the ability of the Western military-industrial complex to turn crisis into opportunity. With the wane of Muslim extremism, it needs the next threat- Russia, and China, are it.

[former player]

Seriously, Putin? you do not have to check off all the evil villain  boxes.

Chemical attack on Mariupol being reported.

https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-southern-port-city-is-under-chemical-attack/

The report is from a far-right group, I’d wait on more legitimate Ukrainian or external sources before assuming it is true. Would not be surprising, however.

Oh of course. But still, even with that report unconfirmed the broader possibility is something that has been discussed.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-says-russian-forces-could-use-chemical-weapons-2022-04-11/

I am pessimistic that even this would get Ukrainians more weapons support, though we are slowly exhausting our slow-walking of the conflict. I think the same scenario will persist of sadistic brutality for shock value, trying to get Ukraine to surrender to avoid further civilian deaths and the Russian government will face little long-term consequence once the West moves on to the next crisis.

Ukraine can't surrender to avoid civilian deaths because it is quite clear that the people in any land surrendered will be killed, very likely in extremely unpleasant ways.