Ukraine

[Vashy]

This is an excellent article on Putin's mindset (and thinking about nuclear use):

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

[Just Joe]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-presidential-adviser-condemns-putins-martial-law-declaration-2022-10-19/

Putin declares martial law in the four annexed regions of Ukraine.

[GuitarStv]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-presidential-adviser-condemns-putins-martial-law-declaration-2022-10-19/

Putin declares martial law in the four annexed regions of Ukraine.

Makes sense.  Martial law is the best way to control a populace that is ecstatic to have been saved from a terrible fate.  Otherwise you would have jubilant parties breaking out everywhere.

[Vashy]

Lawrence Freedman on the whole "resolve this via negotiations" angle:

https://samf.substack.com/p/getting-to-negotiations?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf

[SunnyDays]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-presidential-adviser-condemns-putins-martial-law-declaration-2022-10-19/

Putin declares martial law in the four annexed regions of Ukraine.

Makes sense.  Martial law is the best way to control a populace that is ecstatic to have been saved from a terrible fate.  Otherwise you would have jubilant parties breaking out everywhere.

And yet he is encouraging people to leave, apparently.  Or maybe just making it look like he's saving his people because they're fleeing in droves anyway.

[LaineyAZ]

Is it wrong to say that NATO is now in an undeclared war with Russia?   
It sure seems like it with $18B in weapons and military aid from just the U.S. this year with no end in sight.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Is it wrong to say that NATO is now in an undeclared war with Russia?   
It sure seems like it with $18B in weapons and military aid from just the U.S. this year with no end in sight.

$18B is like 2% of US military spending and is less than what the military spends on management consulting (est $21B in 2022). (but yes, in a sense, the confrontation with Russia is associated with the long-term US objective to build and maintain a unipolar world order vs. an attempt by some regional powers to usher in a multipolar world order--it's not just about Russia but China as well)

[Telecaster]

Is it wrong to say that NATO is now in an undeclared war with Russia?   
It sure seems like it with $18B in weapons and military aid from just the U.S. this year with no end in sight.

Yes it would be wrong. Saying NATO is at war is absurd. 

[Jack0Life]

Is it wrong to say that NATO is now in an undeclared war with Russia?   
It sure seems like it with $18B in weapons and military aid from just the U.S. this year with no end in sight.

This is pocket change for the US military.
They get to test out these weapons to see what works and what don't. No US personnel get hurt and they get Ukraine to test out all the toys.

[LennStar]

Is it wrong to say that NATO is now in an undeclared war with Russia?   
It sure seems like it with $18B in weapons and military aid from just the U.S. this year with no end in sight.

Yes it would be wrong. Saying NATO is at war is absurd.

Last time I looked we still had elections here in Germany, so we are not, and we are part of NATO.

[zolotiyeruki]

Is it wrong to say that NATO is now in an undeclared war with Russia?   
It sure seems like it with $18B in weapons and military aid from just the U.S. this year with no end in sight.

This is pocket change for the US military.
They get to test out these weapons to see what works and what don't. No US personnel get hurt and they get Ukraine to test out all the toys.

Indeed.  On top of that, we're seeing most of Russia's military capabilities wiped out at a steep discount.

[LaineyAZ]

Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic today but the U.S. never declared war in Afghanistan either, and it turned into a 20 year conflict where the Taliban ended back in control just like when it started. 
I know we do not have any U.S. soldiers fighting on the ground, yet, but I feel we can't walk away from this either and let the Russians win.  So, how many years until one side says, Enough?

[Michael in ABQ]

Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic today but the U.S. never declared war in Afghanistan either, and it turned into a 20 year conflict where the Taliban ended back in control just like when it started. 
I know we do not have any U.S. soldiers fighting on the ground, yet, but I feel we can't walk away from this either and let the Russians win.  So, how many years until one side says, Enough?

It's been 8 years already since Russia invaded. They did the same thing in Georgia back in 2008 - they just didn't try to go all the way. However, Russia still has de facto control of chunks of Georgia and will probably never let them go.

I think Ukraine will eventually push Russia back. Maybe not completely back to pre-2014 borders but probably back to pre-2022 borders. Ukraine continues to get more advanced weapon systems while Russia is now bringing out 50–60-year-old systems like T-64s. Also, Russia can only project so much power into Ukraine while Ukraine is literally fighting for their country and can easily mobilize larger numbers of troops despite a lower population base.


This is exactly on strategy for the US in trying to keep any other power from controlling the Eurasian continent. It also fits nicely into our normal strategy of having allies do the bulk of the fighting. For tens of billions of dollars, we're achieving something that would have cost 10-100 times that if we had US Soldiers fighting Russia. Plus, that would be much more likely to end with nuclear war.

[LennStar]

Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic today but the U.S. never declared war in Afghanistan either, and it turned into a 20 year conflict where the Taliban ended back in control just like when it started. 
I know we do not have any U.S. soldiers fighting on the ground, yet, but I feel we can't walk away from this either and let the Russians win.  So, how many years until one side says, Enough?

As long as the Ukrainians are not losing, I don't think the current level can be maintained by Russia for more than a year. Too many dead soldiers. Even in Russia that is going to turn the political tide eventually. And if they lower it, Ukraine will win.

[sixwings]

A lot probably depends on what a republican controlled house decides to do about it. For some reason they've suddenly become very very pro-russia...

[Jack0Life]

Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic today but the U.S. never declared war in Afghanistan either, and it turned into a 20 year conflict where the Taliban ended back in control just like when it started. 
I know we do not have any U.S. soldiers fighting on the ground, yet, but I feel we can't walk away from this either and let the Russians win.  So, how many years until one side says, Enough?

Very different situations.
In Afgan, the US try to help them build and sustain a self government but they weren't very strong. As soon as the US left, the Taliban was able were able to take control of the country very easily.
In Ukraine, a strong democratic government are already in place. They just need to help them push the Russian out.

[Jack0Life]

A lot probably depends on what a republican controlled house decides to do about it. For some reason they've suddenly become very very pro-russia...

I wouldn't say that. They don't want unlimited funds flowing to the Ukraine which is what Biden is doing.
But I agree with Biden. Last time Russia took Crimea with little effort. You got to stand up to the bullies or there's consequences for the futures.

[Telecaster]

I wouldn't say that. They don't want unlimited funds flowing to the Ukraine which is what Biden is doing.

That might be what they are saying, but it is bullshit.   Aid to Ukraine is not unlimited.   Congress holds the power of the purse.  All the aid sent to Ukraine was approved by Congress first. 

Here's the reality:  There is a strong faction in the United States that are fans of right-wing authoritarianism.   Viktor Orbán, prime minister of Hungary is famous for his white, Christian, nationalist views, which include anti-LGBT and anti-immigration platforms and he as used to tools of state power to silence dissenting voices.  Orban of course spoke a CPAC this summer where he gave a speech that was wildly racist even by his standards.   Orban plays golf with Trump and Tucker Carlson heaps praise on him. 

You know else who is famous for his white, Christian, nationalist views, which include anti-LGBT and anti-immigration platforms and he as used to tools of state power to silence dissenting voices?  Putin.  Trump and Tucker Carlson have also heaped praise on Putin and have blamed the US for the war in Ukraine.

If you look at the legislators who voted against the aid packages, all of them had white, Christian, nationalist views.  Many of them are on the record as being admirers of Orban and to a lesser extent Putin.   They are secretly rooting for Putin to win, and in some cases not so secretly. 

[ecchastang]

Some Republicans are just wanting equal money to secure our own border before sending 10's of billions to Ukraine to secure theirs.  Yes, the Ukraine people are suffering and we should help, but the Repubs are not being pro-Russia.  If memory serves me correctly, only during one President has Putin NOT invaded a neighbor...During the Trump administration. 

[Sibley]

Some Republicans are just wanting equal money to secure our own border before sending 10's of billions to Ukraine to secure theirs.  Yes, the Ukraine people are suffering and we should help, but the Repubs are not being pro-Russia.  If memory serves me correctly, only during one President has Putin NOT invaded a neighbor...During the Trump administration.

And Trump got himself impeached for his actions related to Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49800181

Don't listen to what they say. Look at what they do. Past behavior is a far better predictor of future actions.

[Glenstache]

Some Republicans are just wanting equal money to secure our own border before sending 10's of billions to Ukraine to secure theirs.  Yes, the Ukraine people are suffering and we should help, but the Repubs are not being pro-Russia.  If memory serves me correctly, only during one President has Putin NOT invaded a neighbor...During the Trump administration.

Putin didn't need to. Trump was busy pulling out of everywhere enough to give Russia a lot of free reign (see Syria rapid withdrawal, talk of leaving NATO, etc). Besides, why invade when you can make a country self destruct by exploiting exsiting divisions? Russian meddling in the US election 2016 (of which there is no serious debate about it having happened) was far from benign.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44852812

[BicycleB]

Some Republicans are just wanting equal money to secure our own border before sending 10's of billions to Ukraine to secure theirs.  Yes, the Ukraine people are suffering and we should help, but the Repubs are not being pro-Russia.  If memory serves me correctly, only during one President has Putin NOT invaded a neighbor...During the Trump administration.

Republicans and Democrats alike were firm for decades about disliking Russian (originally Soviet) invasions and other Soviet / Russian machinations. This only changed during the Trump era, when Trump's liking for Putin swayed some of the base into being more Russian-friendly.

The poster who pointed out that aid to Ukraine has been Congressionally approved, not Biden mandated, is correct afaik. I suspect that's because traditional Repubs in Congress joined Dems in supporting Ukraine's resistance to the new Russian invasion this year.

As time passed, the Trump wing began rumbling against this but has not reached a majority in Congress. This friendly attitude toward Russian invasion is not something I've seen before from any Republicans in my lifetime (50something). Pre-Trump, I respected the GOP because of it tended to oppose Russian machinations such as invasions and propaganda operations.

It's true that previous administrations of both parties in 2000s did not intervene militarily when Russia invaded Georgia 2008 (GW Bush), Ukraine's Crimea region in 2014 and Donbas in 2014 (Obama). However, Pres Obama instituted economic sanctions.

Re Trump, the Russian invasions of Crimea and Donbas have continued until today, so they were ongoing throughout Trump's term in office. Trump did nothing about them and on other issues was notably friendly to Russia in addition to personally friendly to Putin.

[Jack0Life]

I wouldn't say that. They don't want unlimited funds flowing to the Ukraine which is what Biden is doing.

That might be what they are saying, but it is bullshit.   Aid to Ukraine is not unlimited.   Congress holds the power of the purse.  All the aid sent to Ukraine was approved by Congress first. 

Here's the reality:  There is a strong faction in the United States that are fans of right-wing authoritarianism.   Viktor Orbán, prime minister of Hungary is famous for his white, Christian, nationalist views, which include anti-LGBT and anti-immigration platforms and he as used to tools of state power to silence dissenting voices.  Orban of course spoke a CPAC this summer where he gave a speech that was wildly racist even by his standards.   Orban plays golf with Trump and Tucker Carlson heaps praise on him. 

You know else who is famous for his white, Christian, nationalist views, which include anti-LGBT and anti-immigration platforms and he as used to tools of state power to silence dissenting voices?  Putin.  Trump and Tucker Carlson have also heaped praise on Putin and have blamed the US for the war in Ukraine.

If you look at the legislators who voted against the aid packages, all of them had white, Christian, nationalist views.  Many of them are on the record as being admirers of Orban and to a lesser extent Putin.   They are secretly rooting for Putin to win, and in some cases not so secretly.

I kinda agree with you.
I have hope that not all Republicans share this view.

[waltworks]

Some Republicans are just wanting equal money to secure our own border before sending 10's of billions to Ukraine to secure theirs.  Yes, the Ukraine people are suffering and we should help, but the Repubs are not being pro-Russia.  If memory serves me correctly, only during one President has Putin NOT invaded a neighbor...During the Trump administration.

Yes, comrade...

-W

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Here's the reality:  There is a strong faction in the United States that are fans of right-wing authoritarianism.   Viktor Orbán, prime minister of Hungary is famous for his white, Christian, nationalist views, which include anti-LGBT and anti-immigration platforms and he as used to tools of state power to silence dissenting voices.  Orban of course spoke a CPAC this summer where he gave a speech that was wildly racist even by his standards.   Orban plays golf with Trump and Tucker Carlson heaps praise on him. 

I think you're mistaken; Orban's CPAC speech was rather subdued in this regard. You might be thinking of his Tusvanyos speech where he talks about race-mixing, though after the backlash, he suggested that in a clearer expression of his views, he would have emphasized culture instead of race. In the broader context of his commentary, that explanation makes sense, but it's also possible he said the quiet part loud amid that incredible sea of Transylvanian straw hats.

FWIW his comments on Ukraine start around the 31m mark, and no surprises there (but why would a nationalist believe a country like Ukraine can't ponder NATO membership simply because Russia said so?).

[Telecaster]

Some Republicans are just wanting equal money to secure our own border before sending 10's of billions to Ukraine to secure theirs.  Yes, the Ukraine people are suffering and we should help, but the Repubs are not being pro-Russia.  If memory serves me correctly, only during one President has Putin NOT invaded a neighbor...During the Trump administration.

This is a load of BS that could fertilize the Sinai.   

First, there isn't a fixed amount of money the federal government can spend.  If we so decide we can secure our borders (whatever you define that) and support Ukraine.  Saying otherwise is total BS.

Next, if you look at their words and actions, many Republicans are pro-Putin, including Trump.  And many others who haven't embraced Putin publicly embrace his white Christian nationalist views.  Again, see Tucker Carlson. 

And by the way, your memory does not serve correctly. 

[PeteD01]

The ball/roller bearing issue has been known for a while but may only now be at the point that the bite is starting to be felt:

Russia is currently looking at a risk of collapse of their train network. Russia has taken 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more at risk (read the linked article for good details). Russia is already reporting a huge shortage of ball bearings by year end, but even that number is overstated: “Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000 units. But whether import substitution is possible in principle remains unclear.” Import substitution is the idea that things they used to import, like ball bearings, can be made in Russia. Over and over again for the past decades, Russia has proven that it falls down on Import substitution; they either completely fail to produce the needed good, or the locally made goods are of insanely lower standards.
The problem of ball bearings could bring Russia to the table after Ukraine pushes their troops out of Ukraine–with clear military failure, the continuing collapse of the Russian rail network threatens the stability of their entire empire.
Two cheers for Sweden and their serious industrial blockade of a most needed part.


https://perceptionmoney.com/2022/10/25/sweden-making-ball-bearings-great-again/

[pecunia]

The ball/roller bearing issue has been known for a while but may only now be at the point that the bite is starting to be felt:

Russia is currently looking at a risk of collapse of their train network. Russia has taken 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more at risk (read the linked article for good details). Russia is already reporting a huge shortage of ball bearings by year end, but even that number is overstated: “Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000 units. But whether import substitution is possible in principle remains unclear.” Import substitution is the idea that things they used to import, like ball bearings, can be made in Russia. Over and over again for the past decades, Russia has proven that it falls down on Import substitution; they either completely fail to produce the needed good, or the locally made goods are of insanely lower standards.
The problem of ball bearings could bring Russia to the table after Ukraine pushes their troops out of Ukraine–with clear military failure, the continuing collapse of the Russian rail network threatens the stability of their entire empire.
Two cheers for Sweden and their serious industrial blockade of a most needed part.


https://perceptionmoney.com/2022/10/25/sweden-making-ball-bearings-great-again/

Seems like it would be fairly easy for Russia to order bearings from China.  All of those high speed trains must need good bearings.

https://www.china-bearing-manufacturer.com/top-10-bearing-manufacturers-in%E2%80%82china/

[PeteD01]

The ball/roller bearing issue has been known for a while but may only now be at the point that the bite is starting to be felt:

Russia is currently looking at a risk of collapse of their train network. Russia has taken 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more at risk (read the linked article for good details). Russia is already reporting a huge shortage of ball bearings by year end, but even that number is overstated: “Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000 units. But whether import substitution is possible in principle remains unclear.” Import substitution is the idea that things they used to import, like ball bearings, can be made in Russia. Over and over again for the past decades, Russia has proven that it falls down on Import substitution; they either completely fail to produce the needed good, or the locally made goods are of insanely lower standards.
The problem of ball bearings could bring Russia to the table after Ukraine pushes their troops out of Ukraine–with clear military failure, the continuing collapse of the Russian rail network threatens the stability of their entire empire.
Two cheers for Sweden and their serious industrial blockade of a most needed part.


https://perceptionmoney.com/2022/10/25/sweden-making-ball-bearings-great-again/

Seems like it would be fairly easy for Russia to order bearings from China.  All of those high speed trains must need good bearings.

https://www.china-bearing-manufacturer.com/top-10-bearing-manufacturers-in%E2%80%82china/

Actually no. I can't remember where I read this earlier this year, but these bearings are surprisingly high tech when it comes to their production and apparently the Chinese or other Russia friendly countries' product cannot hold a candle to SKF and other high end manufacturers.

[Travis]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586358375389884417

Ukraine launched a UAV/USV attack on the Sevastopol naval base. The damage is still being assessed, but so far it looks like a few ships were damaged as well as a fuel farm near the shore. Russia claimed it was a naval exercise at first, then a couple hours later admitted to the attack (claiming they defeated it), then ordered that all CCTV in Sevastopol be shut off. A few images and videos got out showing black smoke near the fuel farm and berths. And the attached video of a couple of the Ukrainian drone boats.

[Travis]

The ball/roller bearing issue has been known for a while but may only now be at the point that the bite is starting to be felt:

Russia is currently looking at a risk of collapse of their train network. Russia has taken 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more at risk (read the linked article for good details). Russia is already reporting a huge shortage of ball bearings by year end, but even that number is overstated: “Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000 units. But whether import substitution is possible in principle remains unclear.” Import substitution is the idea that things they used to import, like ball bearings, can be made in Russia. Over and over again for the past decades, Russia has proven that it falls down on Import substitution; they either completely fail to produce the needed good, or the locally made goods are of insanely lower standards.
The problem of ball bearings could bring Russia to the table after Ukraine pushes their troops out of Ukraine–with clear military failure, the continuing collapse of the Russian rail network threatens the stability of their entire empire.
Two cheers for Sweden and their serious industrial blockade of a most needed part.


https://perceptionmoney.com/2022/10/25/sweden-making-ball-bearings-great-again/

Seems like it would be fairly easy for Russia to order bearings from China.  All of those high speed trains must need good bearings.

https://www.china-bearing-manufacturer.com/top-10-bearing-manufacturers-in%E2%80%82china/

Actually no. I can't remember where I read this earlier this year, but these bearings are surprisingly high tech when it comes to their production and apparently the Chinese or other Russia friendly countries' product cannot hold a candle to SKF and other high end manufacturers.

This appears to be the case. Those bearings require very high-quality machining. If Russia could simply switch suppliers they would have done so six months ago. This bearing/flat car shortage was reported originally back in May and appears to be only getting worse.

[markbike528CBX]

The ball/roller bearing issue has been known for a while but may only now be at the point that the bite is starting to be felt:

Russia is currently looking at a risk of collapse of their train network. Russia has taken 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more at risk (read the linked article for good details). Russia is already reporting a huge shortage of ball bearings by year end, but even that number is overstated: “Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000 units. But whether import substitution is possible in principle remains unclear.” Import substitution is the idea that things they used to import, like ball bearings, can be made in Russia. Over and over again for the past decades, Russia has proven that it falls down on Import substitution; they either completely fail to produce the needed good, or the locally made goods are of insanely lower standards.
The problem of ball bearings could bring Russia to the table after Ukraine pushes their troops out of Ukraine–with clear military failure, the continuing collapse of the Russian rail network threatens the stability of their entire empire.
Two cheers for Sweden and their serious industrial blockade of a most needed part.


https://perceptionmoney.com/2022/10/25/sweden-making-ball-bearings-great-again/

Seems like it would be fairly easy for Russia to order bearings from China.  All of those high speed trains must need good bearings.

https://www.china-bearing-manufacturer.com/top-10-bearing-manufacturers-in%E2%80%82china/

Actually no. I can't remember where I read this earlier this year, but these bearings are surprisingly high tech when it comes to their production and apparently the Chinese or other Russia friendly countries' product cannot hold a candle to SKF and other high end manufacturers.

This appears to be the case. Those bearings require very high-quality machining. If Russia could simply switch suppliers they would have done so six months ago. This bearing/flat car shortage was reported originally back in May and appears to be only getting worse.

Apparently rail cars do not need roller bearings, plain journal bearings could be used.

https://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?10,5469820

Disadvantages include much more labor to monitor and fix plain bearings.  “Hot boxes” - ie fire in the bearings etc.

https://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?2,3955147

. Date: 02/07/16 09:27
Re: Norfolk Southern: we dont handle friction bearings
Author: ATSF3751

All make you wonder how those railroads operated friction bearing passenger cars on trains that often reached 90MPH or above. What did they do before the invention of roller bearings?

Date: 02/07/16 10:15
Re: Norfolk Southern: we dont handle friction bearings
Author: ExSPCondr

They were all set up to oil them before they departed every yard, and all trains got a 500 mile inspection in a yard.  Trains had cabooses with a brakeman and a conductor in them, an engineer, a fireman and a brakeman on the engine, and another brakeman riding the top of the cars.  Engines and cabooses were equipped with "cooling sticks" which would help get a hotbox to the next setout track.
​Most of the yards had a complete underground piping system with a fill pipe and a valve that filled the carman's oil can just by raising the lid.
​There wasn't a single engined freight locomotive with over 2500 horsepower before 1960.

Unknown to me if retrofiiting is even possible  or how difficult retrofitting would be.

[Jack0Life]

The ball/roller bearing issue has been known for a while but may only now be at the point that the bite is starting to be felt:

Russia is currently looking at a risk of collapse of their train network. Russia has taken 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more at risk (read the linked article for good details). Russia is already reporting a huge shortage of ball bearings by year end, but even that number is overstated: “Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000 units. But whether import substitution is possible in principle remains unclear.” Import substitution is the idea that things they used to import, like ball bearings, can be made in Russia. Over and over again for the past decades, Russia has proven that it falls down on Import substitution; they either completely fail to produce the needed good, or the locally made goods are of insanely lower standards.
The problem of ball bearings could bring Russia to the table after Ukraine pushes their troops out of Ukraine–with clear military failure, the continuing collapse of the Russian rail network threatens the stability of their entire empire.
Two cheers for Sweden and their serious industrial blockade of a most needed part.


https://perceptionmoney.com/2022/10/25/sweden-making-ball-bearings-great-again/

Seems like it would be fairly easy for Russia to order bearings from China.  All of those high speed trains must need good bearings.

https://www.china-bearing-manufacturer.com/top-10-bearing-manufacturers-in%E2%80%82china/

Actually no. I can't remember where I read this earlier this year, but these bearings are surprisingly high tech when it comes to their production and apparently the Chinese or other Russia friendly countries' product cannot hold a candle to SKF and other high end manufacturers.

This remind of the story of how the Chinese had to import the ball point for pens for years.
The government was so embarrassed that they made it a priority to made their own ball point.
It took them 5 years to finally produce one and I can tell you it's still shitty.

[Chaplin]

Lots of very interesting thoughts about Russia and Ukraine in the first section of this presentation. Thanks to @Stasher for pointing me in its direction. Hard to summarize as it was pretty dense, but focus is on commodity flows around the world and how this conflict affects them.

https://youtu.be/UA-jOLF2T4c

[gooki]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586358375389884417

Ukraine launched a UAV/USV attack on the Sevastopol naval base. The damage is still being assessed, but so far it looks like a few ships were damaged as well as a fuel farm near the shore. Russia claimed it was a naval exercise at first, then a couple hours later admitted to the attack (claiming they defeated it), then ordered that all CCTV in Sevastopol be shut off. A few images and videos got out showing black smoke near the fuel farm and berths. And the attached video of a couple of the Ukrainian drone boats.

Ukraine military released some really good drone point of view video of the strike. Can't be long until we see photos of the damage.

[LennStar]

Apparently rail cars do not need roller bearings, plain journal bearings could be used.

https://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?10,5469820

Disadvantages include much more labor to monitor and fix plain bearings.  “Hot boxes” - ie fire in the bearings etc.

Oh yeah, the guys from "Well there is your problem" did one which included that. Getting fire on a train bearing was so common no one bat an eye when it happened.

[Just Joe]

So replacing roller bearings on axles would they use a larger version of crankshaft bearings i.e. half shell bearings or the old Babbitt bearings? I've done similar work with antique engines - and nothing complicated about half-shell bearings. Both need alot of lube i.e. oil bath.

I would imagine this could impact military vehicle production and maintenance too?

[pecunia]

So replacing roller bearings on axles would they use a larger version of crankshaft bearings i.e. half shell bearings or the old Babbitt bearings? I've done similar work with antique engines - and nothing complicated about half-shell bearings. Both need alot of lube i.e. oil bath.

I would imagine this could impact military vehicle production and maintenance too?

They can't steal the bearings from washing machines like chips, I guess.

[Travis]

Someone snuck onto a Russian airfield near Latvia, assembled some bombs, and blew up several helicopters. Russia admits to two being damaged. Ukrainian sources state two destroyed and three damaged.


https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1587182889002827780

https://twitter.com/JohnB_Schneider/status/1587266104371576834

[PeteD01]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

Reinforced concrete can suffer structural weakness due to expansion of the steel inside the concrete during a fire, but it can take several hours to even begin to cause this type of damage. Even standard building codes (in the West, at least) require structural integrity for up to 4 hours during a building fire. On the other hand, obviously buildings are usually not coated in thousands of gallons of flammable liquid with another couple thousand tons of metal train cars on top. I guess the only way to find out is when someone posts a video of a loaded train going over the damaged section.

This whole episode shows how little aircraft are playing in this war at this point (on both sides).

And there is also the effect of heat on the concrete itself and we know that the temperature in some areas was well above the critical temperature (deformed steel).
We also know that there were high winds creating a furnace effect that is clearly seen on videos and stills and that definitely increased temperature in certain areas.
We know that the fire was left to burn out and that took several hours. Damage to the concrete and steel is determined by exposure time and temperature and given that there was a furnace effect, it must be assumed that extreme temperatures might have developed in spots.
Given all that, it looks to me that the affected spans must be assumed to be structurally unsound.
The Kerch railway bridge has two tracks but they are laid on single spans so the structural problems affect both tracks.
All that said, even assuming that the railway bridge is brought back into service, the attack has revealed that the entire RU operation in southern Ukraine is critically dependent on the Kerch railway bridge: there really is no way to get sufficient supplies to RU forces with the Kerch bridge out of service.

The Kerch bridge attack is a truly catastrophic event for RU that upended the propaganda space by unequivocally demonstrating RU weakness and that massively interferes with the RU effort in southern Ukraine.

Latest bridge damage:

https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1579550128930975744?s=21&t=-U-PeAEQwbLAEAENeAcghA

Interesting. The deformed rails and axles are seen right were the furnace/blowtorch effect, seen in the footage from the fire, would be expected to be: between the underside of the car and above the rails. There might be some ugly problems lurking there.

The surviving section of road bridge doesn't look too clever either.

And the steel of at least one undercarriage has clearly melted, indicating 2200+ degrees Fahrenheit for an extended period of time in that particular area.

Looks like there is now confirmation that the Kerch railway bridge and the road bridges are going to be out of service for the duration of the war with repairs not expected to be completed until late 2023:

https://twitter.com/am_misfit/status/1588697303300177921

[former player]

You are a brave man to predict the end date of the war, I'm not seeing anyone else doing that.

[PeteD01]

You are a brave man to predict the end date of the war, I'm not seeing anyone else doing that.

Actually I do not predict the timing of the end of the war.
The dates given by Russia for the repairs to be finished are not to be believed but they are an indicator how severely the railroad bridge is damaged.
I seriously doubt that Russia has the capability to finish a major construction project in an active war zone under deteriorating conditions and in a logistical stranglehold.
So my prediction is that the bridges will most likely not be brought back and Ukraine will see to that - however long the war may last.

[Sibley]

With Russia hitting electric and water infrastructure, is there any effort to send parts and materials to repair them? You can't replace a crushed pipe if you don't have a new pipe to put in, and I'm sure Ukraine's going to run low at some point.

[LennStar]

With Russia hitting electric and water infrastructure, is there any effort to send parts and materials to repair them? You can't replace a crushed pipe if you don't have a new pipe to put in, and I'm sure Ukraine's going to run low at some point.

It's not like there are no pipes produced or imported. Much of this happens hundreds of Kilometers away from the front, and if they can repair and repaint a missiled 6 storey housing block in a few month under these conditions, they certainly can replace a few pipes. It's not like the Russians are blowing up long lines under the ground from one town to the other.

More problematic will be specialized equipment like pumps and high voltage uh.. transformer station machines? Those are relativly rare, can't be produced from one day to the other and can be really heavy. Like special transport, close the streets heavy.
More dangerous is the winter, when because of such damage to pump stations or the elctricty grid the pipes freeze and get destroyed in a large area.

[pecunia]

With Russia hitting electric and water infrastructure, is there any effort to send parts and materials to repair them? You can't replace a crushed pipe if you don't have a new pipe to put in, and I'm sure Ukraine's going to run low at some point.

It's not like there are no pipes produced or imported. Much of this happens hundreds of Kilometers away from the front, and if they can repair and repaint a missiled 6 storey housing block in a few month under these conditions, they certainly can replace a few pipes. It's not like the Russians are blowing up long lines under the ground from one town to the other.

More problematic will be specialized equipment like pumps and high voltage uh.. transformer station machines? Those are relativly rare, can't be produced from one day to the other and can be really heavy. Like special transport, close the streets heavy.
More dangerous is the winter, when because of such damage to pump stations or the elctricty grid the pipes freeze and get destroyed in a large area.

Several years ago I did a lot of work in electrical substations.  The lead time after ordering major circuit breakers of transformers could be a year or more until the item(s) were delivered.  I doubt whether the world's manufacturing capacity has changed greatly since that time.

[Travis]

With Russia hitting electric and water infrastructure, is there any effort to send parts and materials to repair them? You can't replace a crushed pipe if you don't have a new pipe to put in, and I'm sure Ukraine's going to run low at some point.

Short answer yes. There was a press release by Germany or somebody a couple days ago mentioning the replacement of electrical infrastructure. What that will require or how long it will take is anybody's guess.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Russia only understands force, so I think it's time Ukraine were given weapons that hit power stations and water generation inside Russia.  Yes, it's an escalation - compared to what?  Slaughtering civilians and ensuring more die from cold and thirst?  Russia is running out of worse horrors to inflict on Ukraine.

Also, Russia is playing the media like a fiddle, which sucks.  Russian soldiers shot thousands of Ukrainian civlians dead, and now we're talking about grain shipments and if Russia will use nuclear weapons.  They're distracting from the horrors they've comitted on civilians, in my view.

[pecunia]

Russia only understands force, so I think it's time Ukraine were given weapons that hit power stations and water generation inside Russia.  Yes, it's an escalation - compared to what?  Slaughtering civilians and ensuring more die from cold and thirst?  Russia is running out of worse horrors to inflict on Ukraine.

Also, Russia is playing the media like a fiddle, which sucks.  Russian soldiers shot thousands of Ukrainian civlians dead, and now we're talking about grain shipments and if Russia will use nuclear weapons.  They're distracting from the horrors they've comitted on civilians, in my view.

It would seem to be an excellent way to make the average citizenry understand what has been happening within Ukraine.  The populace of Russia may understand there is a war, but they don't really understand.  Experience is the best teacher.

[LennStar]

Russia only understands force, so I think it's time Ukraine were given weapons that hit power stations and water generation inside Russia.  Yes, it's an escalation - compared to what?  Slaughtering civilians and ensuring more die from cold and thirst?  Russia is running out of worse horrors to inflict on Ukraine.

Also, Russia is playing the media like a fiddle, which sucks.  Russian soldiers shot thousands of Ukrainian civlians dead, and now we're talking about grain shipments and if Russia will use nuclear weapons.  They're distracting from the horrors they've comitted on civilians, in my view.

It would seem to be an excellent way to make the average citizenry understand what has been happening within Ukraine.  The populace of Russia may understand there is a war, but they don't really understand.  Experience is the best teacher.

But that won't happen. Even if the Ukrainians wanted to do that and not have their hands full, that is a real red line.
That's what would rally the Russians for the war, not against it, and it would mean atomic bomb is now "legal" by Russian doctrine, if you stretch it jsut a little bit.
I think that is what is behind the formula of "Russia cannot (is not allowed to meaning) win the war" that politicians have used while avoiding "Ukraine must win". If Russia get repelled from Ukrainian territory, Russia has not won. But you could also say it has not lost. But if the war moves to Russian territory, Russia has lost. 

[TomTX]

A lot probably depends on what a republican controlled house decides to do about it. For some reason they've suddenly become very very pro-russia...

I wouldn't say that. They don't want unlimited funds flowing to the Ukraine which is what Biden is doing.
But I agree with Biden. Last time Russia took Crimea with little effort. You got to stand up to the bullies or there's consequences for the futures.

Well, you would be wrong. "Unlimited funds" "Biden" - LOL. Go back and read a few posts. Total so far is 2% of the annual US military budget - on top of that, a heck of a lot of the stuff we're sending was either nearing expiration (and thus needing disposal soon) - or in deep storage, unlikely to ever be used. Plus, the spending so far has nearly all been approved by Congress, including many Republicans.

Do you somehow think spending 4% of our military budget a year to massively degrade Russia's military capabilities could be better spent elsewhere? If so, please be clear about what it is and why other parts of the military budget shouldn't be used. Degrading the capability of a long-time enemy military without any casualties?

Biden has sole authority over Lend-Lease, but hasn't used that authority at all yet.