Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 551713 times)

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #300 on: March 03, 2022, 01:33:52 PM »
But that doesn't make any sense either. Russia's largest problem over the next 50 years is one of demographics. You don't send a bunch of healthy young men to die for fun.
The demographics of Russia certainly play a role, but they can be seen as creating a bit of a "it's now or never" situation for invading Ukraine. The longer Russia waited, the worse its army was going to be.

Quote
According to the UN’s World Population Prospects report from 2019, there were a projected 14.25 million men aged 20-34 in Russia in 2020. ... However, the true disaster is far closer than mid-century; in 2025, there will be only 11.55 million and in 2030, 11.23 million.
https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/russian-military-facing-looming-demography-crisis

OtherJen

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #301 on: March 03, 2022, 01:38:37 PM »
It feels like Putin wanted to get rid of old equipment but didn't find a scrap yard with the permit for military stuff.

But that doesn't make any sense either. Russia's largest problem over the next 50 years is one of demographics. You don't send a bunch of healthy young men to die for fun.

Russia is a country of 144.1 million people.

Assuming that Russians official Ukraine casualties are 100x lower than reality to be safe, that only works out to 49,800 people.  Probably not enough to be noticed.

I read they lost 15,000 in Afghanistan and they were noticed.  This was over the 10 year period from 1979 to 1989.  Let's say they've lost about 6,000 so far.  It's a much shorter period.  I think the lost young soldiers will be noticed.

You guys are money people.   Putin and his Oligarchs are money people.  Money people deal with Assets and Liabilities.  Having a friend like Putin has been an asset.

All these sanctions seem like they hurt the oligarch guys by freezing their toys and stuff.  It prevents them from making money.  They are money people.  They want to keep making money.  There is this war because Putin has ordered it.  It is because of the war that the toys aren't available.  The war is because of Putin.  Not making money and not having toys is bad.  People that make things bad are liabilities and not assets.  Putin is a liability and not an asset.  Good businessmen remove liabilities.

Is it possible that some of Putin's buddies are no longer his buddies but are pretend buddies?

Is it possible I've been seeing too many gangster movies?

General Question - To me this Ukraine thing is a big story.  I just ran into a few people that don't watch the news and don't want to.  I mentioned Ukraine and they had no clue.   I have a brother a bit like that.  Do you think people like that are the majority?

No, I think most of the world is watching the situation in Ukraine right now. Those of us with an interest in 20th century geopolitics immediately spotted similarities to 1939. I certainly appreciate the idea of a low-information diet and am grateful that I don't have cable TV, but I don't think it's a superior position to be completely ignorant of the broader world.

As for Putin, I do think that the oligarchs/Russian mafia must be starting to see him as a liability rather than an asset. I'm sure that none of them expected to feel any discomfort from his actions and were happy to turn a blind eye to his dictatorial qualities, as long as it kept them rich and powerful. Now, their assets are being frozen and seized, and they're being shut out of various aspects of global business.

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #302 on: March 03, 2022, 01:47:54 PM »
It feels like Putin wanted to get rid of old equipment but didn't find a scrap yard with the permit for military stuff.

But that doesn't make any sense either. Russia's largest problem over the next 50 years is one of demographics. You don't send a bunch of healthy young men to die for fun.

Russia is a country of 144.1 million people.

Assuming that Russians official Ukraine casualties are 100x lower than reality to be safe, that only works out to 49,800 people.  Probably not enough to be noticed.

In military parlance "casualty" includes the injured. Also, if you actually wanted to take back Ukraine you need to count all of the casualties on that side too. That doesn't even include knock-on effects. How many injured soldiers do you have for every killed one? Who takes care of them? Is PTSD good for a labor force? (An MSF survey in 2005 showed that 77% of the inhabitants of temporary accommodation centres in Grozny never, or only occasionally, felt safe).

Furthermore, salaries are higher in Russia than Ukraine. Ukraine is a country full of fluent Russian speakers. If they hadn't started a war with them in 2014 then perhaps you could have recruited them. At this point it is my understanding that the average Ukrainian wants nothing to do with Russia.

When the iron curtain fell Russia could have been Poland, only bigger with more mineral resources. I'm starting to think that will never happen.

Luke Warm

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #303 on: March 03, 2022, 01:56:17 PM »
i haven't heard anything on the cyberwarfare front. russia is supposed to be good at this.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #304 on: March 03, 2022, 02:05:48 PM »
i haven't heard anything on the cyberwarfare front. russia is supposed to be good at this.

If every hacker in the world is busy harassing you, it's awfully difficult to both defend and attack at the same time. Anonymous declared war. I'm sure plenty of nation states are taking advantage of Anonymous' actions and working in their shadow, possibly with far greater impact.

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #305 on: March 03, 2022, 02:09:42 PM »
i haven't heard anything on the cyberwarfare front. russia is supposed to be good at this.

There have been. CNBC: Cyberattack hits Ukrainian banks and government websites Microsoft: Cyber threat activity in Ukraine: analysis and resources. They released brand new never before noticed malware AFAIK.

gaja

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #306 on: March 03, 2022, 02:11:55 PM »
I live in Norway and afaik we are pretty much the only country in Europe which is close to 100% renewable on electricity generation (Sweden also pretty close + a few others if you include nuclear).
Albania and Iceland listed at 100%, Norway at 97.2% per wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_renewable_electricity_production

Denmark the world wind leader by % followed by Lithuania and Germany.

It is nice to watch these percentages move up (if it moved down due to nuclear capacity increasing, I could be okay with that in the right circumstances) all around the world - sometimes I wish it could be a little faster!

Remember that its not only electricity generation. Countries that have a fairly "green" electricity production might still rely on natural gas for heating and/or industrial use. Those who don't tend to be small and have another natural resource in abundance (Hydro in Norway's case, hydro and geothermal heat in Iceland's case). For the rest it's pretty much wind and solar. Or nuclear.  Denmark has a lot of wind power but also rely on gas for heating. Denamrk is a net electricity importer also.

European reliance on russian gas has gone up the last years and it's gonna be very, very, very hard to get off that hook.

A few years ago, Norway built a couple of small natural gas power plants "for backup". They were very costly and of very little use, so the last one will be demantled in April. It was supposed to happen several years ago, but covid. So @habanero is correct, we are basically at 100 % renewable (I see we currently are at 99.7 % hydro + wind, and the last .3% is made from burning something. But we have a bit of electricity production from several of our waste treatment plants, so those .3% could be from that).

Denmark is gradually transforming to green gas, increased from 21 to 25 % biogas in their grid last year. Biogas is a very good replacement for Russian natural gas, since it is chemically identical, and can be produced from waste. By utilizing the exisiting gas grid, the transformation can be made without hurting the consumer, particularly since biogas now is several places in cheaper than natural gas.
https://en.energinet.dk/About-our-news/News/2022/01/07/New-record-biogas

According to IEA, it is possible to reduce Russian gas use by 50% in one year with relatively simple means: https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas (Note that they have based the calculations on people turning down their thermostat from 22 to 21 degrees C...).
https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #307 on: March 03, 2022, 02:18:36 PM »
A few years ago, Norway built a couple of small natural gas power plants "for backup". They were very costly and of very little use, so the last one will be demantled in April. It was supposed to happen several years ago, but covid. So @habanero is correct, we are basically at 100 % renewable (I see we currently are at 99.7 % hydro + wind, and the last .3% is made from burning something. But we have a bit of electricity production from several of our waste treatment plants, so those .3% could be from that).

In addition to whatever is going on here, in the USA most regulators make sure that you can exceed your scheduled peak demand by 3% at any time. So we have what are called "peaking plants" which may get run six days a year or perhaps never. Very expensive per kWh.

gaja

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #308 on: March 03, 2022, 02:52:41 PM »
A few years ago, Norway built a couple of small natural gas power plants "for backup". They were very costly and of very little use, so the last one will be demantled in April. It was supposed to happen several years ago, but covid. So @habanero is correct, we are basically at 100 % renewable (I see we currently are at 99.7 % hydro + wind, and the last .3% is made from burning something. But we have a bit of electricity production from several of our waste treatment plants, so those .3% could be from that).

In addition to whatever is going on here, in the USA most regulators make sure that you can exceed your scheduled peak demand by 3% at any time. So we have what are called "peaking plants" which may get run six days a year or perhaps never. Very expensive per kWh.

The peak demand is why the fossil lobbyist managed to convince our politicians to build those natural gas power plants originally, but it soon turned out we don't need them due to all the hydro. The waste treatment fascilities that have a tiny bit of electricity production are not built for variable loads. Their alternative, if the heat isn't needed at the moment, is to vent the flame/heat outside. Annually, 10 % of our biogas production is flared, meaning 70 GWh of renewable energy is lost. But those numbers pale compared to the global flaring of natural gas: 140 bcm, or the equivalent of 750 TWh: https://www.enverus.com/blog/natural-gas-flaring/

We waste so much energy in the world, it is sickening. The heat wasted from electricity production and industry in Europe is more than enough to replace the Russian gas. Not all of that will be easy or cheap to utilize, but at least 1/3 could be cost effective with "normal" energy prices. With the current prices, who knows. We need to increase the district heating and cooling infrastructure substantially, and fast. And since the energy market is global, any reduction in consumption or increase in production one place will free up energy for someone else.

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #309 on: March 03, 2022, 02:58:33 PM »
WSJ: Congress Introduces Bill to Ban Russian Crude, Seeking to Squeeze Putin Revenue Source. If you are a US citizen I encourage you to contact your elected officials to support this bill.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #310 on: March 03, 2022, 03:22:49 PM »
i haven't heard anything on the cyberwarfare front. russia is supposed to be good at this.

There have been. CNBC: Cyberattack hits Ukrainian banks and government websites Microsoft: Cyber threat activity in Ukraine: analysis and resources. They released brand new never before noticed malware AFAIK.

Honestly, even with all that being reported - it's less than I would have expected. And I haven't heard of DDOS hitting Ukraine, or the countries backing Ukraine in unusual numbers. The hackers may be making an impact, in distraction if nothing else.

sailinlight

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #311 on: March 03, 2022, 03:29:22 PM »
WSJ: Congress Introduces Bill to Ban Russian Crude, Seeking to Squeeze Putin Revenue Source. If you are a US citizen I encourage you to contact your elected officials to support this bill.
You don't think it would push Putin to use a nuclear weapon, at least as a show of force to prove the world he's not scared to launch one?

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #312 on: March 03, 2022, 03:33:58 PM »
i haven't heard anything on the cyberwarfare front. russia is supposed to be good at this.

There have been. CNBC: Cyberattack hits Ukrainian banks and government websites Microsoft: Cyber threat activity in Ukraine: analysis and resources. They released brand new never before noticed malware AFAIK.

Honestly, even with all that being reported - it's less than I would have expected. And I haven't heard of DDOS hitting Ukraine, or the countries backing Ukraine in unusual numbers. The hackers may be making an impact, in distraction if nothing else.

Well, the west has been working on DDOS mitigation for decades now. CloudFlare and AWS are happy to help you solve this problem, just insert money.  Not all attacks will necessarily be reported. But also, I think that there is more cyber-warfare than people realize because it isn't making front page news. In some cases I'm not sure if the US and its allies wouldn't politely request it not making the news. IDK, I work in software but I never deal with three letter agencies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/us/politics/ukraine-russia-microsoft.html
https://venturebeat.com/2022/03/02/microsoft-data-wiper-cyberattacks-continuing-in-ukraine/
https://www.newsweek.com/ddos-attack-definition-meaning-liveuamap-ukraine-russia-cyberattack-mapping-tool-1683978

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #313 on: March 03, 2022, 03:36:48 PM »
WSJ: Congress Introduces Bill to Ban Russian Crude, Seeking to Squeeze Putin Revenue Source. If you are a US citizen I encourage you to contact your elected officials to support this bill.
You don't think it would push Putin to use a nuclear weapon, at least as a show of force to prove the world he's not scared to launch one?

From the Russian perspective, the amount of oil that the US buys from Russia is rather trivial.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33732

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #314 on: March 03, 2022, 03:55:54 PM »
The Ruble is now trading at 118/$1, and Russia has now been downgraded to junk status.  Russian citizens are lining up at ATMs to withdraw money in anything-but-rubles.  I suppose that makes sense, with the Russian Central Bank doubling interest rates to 20%.

This guy is projecting >60% annual inflation in Russia as a result of the sanctions.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #315 on: March 03, 2022, 04:02:04 PM »
The Ruble is now trading at 118/$1, and Russia has now been downgraded to junk status.  Russian citizens are lining up at ATMs to withdraw money in anything-but-rubles.  I suppose that makes sense, with the Russian Central Bank doubling interest rates to 20%.

This guy is projecting >60% annual inflation in Russia as a result of the sanctions.

Putin wants to bring back the past glory of Russia.  Looks like their average person is going to be as poor as one of the peasants prior to 1918.

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #316 on: March 03, 2022, 04:03:18 PM »
From the Russian perspective, the amount of oil that the US buys from Russia is rather trivial.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33732

I don't disagree. But still:
1. Why wouldn't we do this?
2. It might encourage some European nations to follow.

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #317 on: March 03, 2022, 04:10:17 PM »
WSJ: Congress Introduces Bill to Ban Russian Crude, Seeking to Squeeze Putin Revenue Source. If you are a US citizen I encourage you to contact your elected officials to support this bill.
You don't think it would push Putin to use a nuclear weapon, at least as a show of force to prove the world he's not scared to launch one?

I think that during the Korean war US pilots went head-to-head with pilots from the USSR and no one launched a nuke. I don't personally think that Putin is more nuts than Stalin.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2022, 04:12:11 PM by PDXTabs »

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #318 on: March 03, 2022, 04:49:57 PM »
i haven't heard anything on the cyberwarfare front. russia is supposed to be good at this.

There have been. CNBC: Cyberattack hits Ukrainian banks and government websites Microsoft: Cyber threat activity in Ukraine: analysis and resources. They released brand new never before noticed malware AFAIK.

Honestly, even with all that being reported - it's less than I would have expected. And I haven't heard of DDOS hitting Ukraine, or the countries backing Ukraine in unusual numbers. The hackers may be making an impact, in distraction if nothing else.

Well, the west has been working on DDOS mitigation for decades now. CloudFlare and AWS are happy to help you solve this problem, just insert money.  Not all attacks will necessarily be reported. But also, I think that there is more cyber-warfare than people realize because it isn't making front page news. In some cases I'm not sure if the US and its allies wouldn't politely request it not making the news. IDK, I work in software but I never deal with three letter agencies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/us/politics/ukraine-russia-microsoft.html
https://venturebeat.com/2022/03/02/microsoft-data-wiper-cyberattacks-continuing-in-ukraine/
https://www.newsweek.com/ddos-attack-definition-meaning-liveuamap-ukraine-russia-cyberattack-mapping-tool-1683978

Ukraine government was on the receiving end of DDOS on Day 1. Since then, Russia has been on the defensive. Anonymous and every other hackivist group with some time on their hands has been going after Russian and Belorussian government sites, power plants, railroads, defense contractors, and air traffic control.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #319 on: March 03, 2022, 05:03:42 PM »
Russia has been touting for years that they can do more with less and are developing all these new weapons. The reality is they can't, and they haven't. It's all been a lie and it's now on full display.


They sent in a bunch of conscripts with decades old equipment - and even the more modern equipment is getting destroyed just as easily by anti-tank guided missiles provided by the US and European allies (Javelin, NLAW, etc.). They've touted active protection systems (basically a system that blows up incoming missiles) but those are nowhere to be seen. Instead, they've mounted metal cages with sandbags on top of the turret of tanks to try and stop Javelin missiles which attack the top of the tank where it's the most vulnerable.

The T-14 Armata tank they introduced years ago is nowhere to be seen because they can't actually build them at scale - just a few prototypes to display at a parade. Even T-90s (introduced in 1992) and T-80s (introduced in 1976) are rare and those are decades old. It's mostly T-72s (introduced in 1969).

They're using just a handful of missiles to try and destroy airfields and in one satellite photo (attached) it showed that only 2 out of 6 hit the tarmac. The other 4 hit the dirt next to the runway causing no real damage. An American strike on a similar target would have probably used 15-20 cruise missiles or precision guided bombs precisely targeted at specific targets (fuel facilities, runway intersections, hangars, control tower, etc.). The thing is, Russia has relatively few precision weapons. They're using modern fighters to drop 50-year-old unguided bombs - and having to fly relatively close to do so - putting them at risk from Ukranian anti-aircraft fire.

This is one reason why they're attacking cities with area effect weapons (artillery, rockets, cluster munitions, etc.) they simply don't have enough precision weapons to actually hit specific targets. Also, it's a terror thing to try and demoralize the military and civilians and get them to surrender or face more civilian casualties.

If Russia actually possesses the weapons and kit we've been worried about, it's probably in the hands of the soldiers allocated to face Poland and the Baltics. The Russian air force has been mostly absent, and the conjecture is that they don't have the stand-off weapons to use without putting pilots at risk for low-altitude attacks and they haven't figured out how to have their own aircraft and SAMs in the same area. The Ukrainian air force isn't very big, but every couple days they're still able to fly and get results.

The army in Ukraine mostly came from central and southern Russia. It also seems like in the Russian system, the longer you stay in the army, the better equipment you have. Their 1st/2nd year soldiers on the frontline get crap to work with, but their paratroopers have better gear. Not that it's helping them much. On paper the Russians are making progress in the south, but they're paying for it dearly.  They captured Kherson yesterday which partially links the forces in Crimea and Donbas, but as soon as the sun went down the Ukrainians counterattacked and destroyed a number of helicopters that were landed at the Kherson airport as reinforcements.  Ukrainian forces cut off and encircled an attempt to surround Kyiv from the west in the town of Bucha. A Russian general was killed yesterday. I don't have access to full internet at work, but from I was reading before I left the house, that convoy everyone was worried about north of Kyiv has been stalled for four days for lack of fuel, and today it's being bombed.  An American civilian who does depot-level maintenance for the US Army looked at photos of a Russian wheeled artillery piece stuck on the road and surmised it hadn't left the motorpool in a year based on the wear pattern from the tire blowout it had.

scottish

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #320 on: March 03, 2022, 05:24:17 PM »
WSJ: Congress Introduces Bill to Ban Russian Crude, Seeking to Squeeze Putin Revenue Source. If you are a US citizen I encourage you to contact your elected officials to support this bill.
You don't think it would push Putin to use a nuclear weapon, at least as a show of force to prove the world he's not scared to launch one?

Given the state displayed by the Russian army, it makes me wonder if they still have an ICBM capability.   Those missiles require expensive maintenance to the point that even the US is having trouble keeping up to date... 

See for example  https://www.airforcemag.com/report-icbms-to-fall-short-of-mission-needs-in-2026/ 

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #321 on: March 03, 2022, 05:46:39 PM »
Yeah, it's a real mystery.

Some say it's because Putin expected to Ukraine army to falter from the first shot, so they didn't bother lossing expensive equipment.
Some say because the soldiers should not look intimidating - they are there to rescue people from Nazis after all.
It may also be some propaganda thing.

But none of that makes sense imho.


Can't say for sure, but the theories here in my office are:
-Thought it would be a cakewalk, so no planning or preparation
-Russian doctrine hasn't been updated in 30 years. They really thought going in with unsupported light infantry was a winning move. Would also explain why they did four airborne operations that all ended in slaughter
-They believed their own bullshit that they were going to liberate a friendly population
-Their maintenance program is crap. They're only resourced to attack weak neighbors. Their logistics program is definitely crap. There's video out there of soldiers saying they haven't eaten in four days.
-The army attacking Ukraine is second-tier and doesn't get the good toys. Only partially true as several T-90s (their best tank) have been destroyed/captured.

former player

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #322 on: March 03, 2022, 05:59:38 PM »
The BBC is reporting that the Russians have been firing at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, south Ukraine, and that it is now on fire.

Shit, shit, shit.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #323 on: March 03, 2022, 06:10:02 PM »
The BBC is reporting that the Russians have been firing at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, south Ukraine, and that it is now on fire.

Shit, shit, shit.

Watch it live if you'd like.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYUT36YGOh8

waltworks

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #324 on: March 03, 2022, 06:48:16 PM »
I don't know, shelling a nuclear plant, to me, constitutes an attack on all of Europe/NATO. I'd probably tell the Russians to get 100km away from the plant ASAP or NATO joins the war.

But then again, nuclear weapons...

-W
« Last Edit: March 03, 2022, 07:18:07 PM by waltworks »

Glenstache

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #325 on: March 03, 2022, 07:01:59 PM »
The BBC is reporting that the Russians have been firing at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, south Ukraine, and that it is now on fire.

Shit, shit, shit.
This seems insanely stupid considering that it is immediately upwind from the disputed territories, many of the Russian's own forces and, well, portions of Russia itself. FFS.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #326 on: March 03, 2022, 08:03:29 PM »
On paper the Russians are making progress in the south, but they're paying for it dearly.  They captured Kherson yesterday which partially links the forces in Crimea and Donbas, but as soon as the sun went down the Ukrainians counterattacked and destroyed a number of helicopters that were landed at the Kherson airport as reinforcements.  Ukrainian forces cut off and encircled an attempt to surround Kyiv from the west in the town of Bucha. A Russian general was killed yesterday. I don't have access to full internet at work, but from I was reading before I left the house, that convoy everyone was worried about north of Kyiv has been stalled for four days for lack of fuel, and today it's being bombed.  An American civilian who does depot-level maintenance for the US Army looked at photos of a Russian wheeled artillery piece stuck on the road and surmised it hadn't left the motorpool in a year based on the wear pattern from the tire blowout it had.
I hadn't heard about the counterattack or Bucha, although I had heard about the rest.  Where did you hear about those two?

The BBC is reporting that the Russians have been firing at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, south Ukraine, and that it is now on fire.

Shit, shit, shit.
That, to me, is a red line.  I don't care if you've got nukes.  If I'm president, and you're shelling a nuclear power plant, my jets would be scrambled and taking out your artillery tout de suite.  I'm not bothering with any warning.  You ought to know better than that.

EDIT:  The building that was on fire is a training building, and the fire has now been put out.  Most of the reactors are shut down, but it sounds like the plant is taking heavy fire.  Whether this is intentional or incidental isn't clear, but c'mon, man, that's just insane either way.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2022, 08:06:59 PM by zolotiyeruki »

Abe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #327 on: March 03, 2022, 08:10:24 PM »


EDIT:  The building that was on fire is a training building, and the fire has now been put out.  Most of the reactors are shut down, but it sounds like the plant is taking heavy fire.  Whether this is intentional or incidental isn't clear, but c'mon, man, that's just insane either way.

There seems to be no real strategy other than "blow things up!", as far as I can tell.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #328 on: March 03, 2022, 08:26:52 PM »
If they wanted the same effect on the population, they would only need to blow up the towers leaving the site.  Are they just dumb?  I would think the Russians would want the physical infrastructure if they are going to take over.  They aren't smart enough to be good pirates.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #329 on: March 03, 2022, 08:41:36 PM »
A bit of good news.

Germans welcome Ukrainian refugees by train: 'It could have been us'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60611188

Quote
In Berlin's central railway station the trains arriving from the east come carrying thousands of refugees every day - men, women and children fleeing Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.

Those who want to head onwards get free train tickets to anywhere in Europe. Those who don't, or don't know where they should go, get ushered down to a cavernous hall.

What they find is a huge operation to welcome them. Food and drink is handed out along with sim cards for phones, and there medical teams, translators, volunteers and organisers to help.

And there's a crowd, hundreds strong, of German families standing there too, offering places in their homes to the refugees.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #330 on: March 03, 2022, 10:11:42 PM »
On paper the Russians are making progress in the south, but they're paying for it dearly.  They captured Kherson yesterday which partially links the forces in Crimea and Donbas, but as soon as the sun went down the Ukrainians counterattacked and destroyed a number of helicopters that were landed at the Kherson airport as reinforcements.  Ukrainian forces cut off and encircled an attempt to surround Kyiv from the west in the town of Bucha. A Russian general was killed yesterday. I don't have access to full internet at work, but from I was reading before I left the house, that convoy everyone was worried about north of Kyiv has been stalled for four days for lack of fuel, and today it's being bombed.  An American civilian who does depot-level maintenance for the US Army looked at photos of a Russian wheeled artillery piece stuck on the road and surmised it hadn't left the motorpool in a year based on the wear pattern from the tire blowout it had.
I hadn't heard about the counterattack or Bucha, although I had heard about the rest.  Where did you hear about those two?

The BBC is reporting that the Russians have been firing at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, south Ukraine, and that it is now on fire.

Shit, shit, shit.
That, to me, is a red line.  I don't care if you've got nukes.  If I'm president, and you're shelling a nuclear power plant, my jets would be scrambled and taking out your artillery tout de suite.  I'm not bothering with any warning.  You ought to know better than that.

EDIT:  The building that was on fire is a training building, and the fire has now been put out.  Most of the reactors are shut down, but it sounds like the plant is taking heavy fire.  Whether this is intentional or incidental isn't clear, but c'mon, man, that's just insane either way.

I agree re the red line. You DO NOT THREATEN NUCLEAR. Whether its bombs or power plants. You just don't. Anyone who does is just insane and needs to be removed from power for the safety of the world.

And all the problems of NATO/US/other getting involved still exist. I really hope that someone in Russia takes action. I don't really expect it however.

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #331 on: March 03, 2022, 10:43:28 PM »
(following the thread and broader topic with great interest, but not much or maybe too much too say, and not enough time).

Does anyone think it likely that Ukraine will win a decisive ground victory over the Russian army? This thought has been in my head since the second day, when Russia seemed to be moving a little slowly, and the first videos of farmers pulling away Russian armored vehicles with tractors started to pop up. I thought "wow, the Russians launched an attack with 6 prongs, and with a force of 180,000 and half in reserve, some of the prongs must be pretty small. If NATO saturated the countryside with weapons, they could be cut off and soon annihilated." Since then the Russians seem to be doing, if anything, worse. If they were destined for success it seems like their momentum should be accelerating.

War is not just a numbers game. Like a stock market, it is also a mind game. If the Ukrainians destroy enough equipment and the Russians start to run out of supplies, a surrender could become contagious. Could we see a rapid collapse of nearly all Russian units deployed more than 50 miles from their border?

Arm chair generalling. Not an expert at all, though I read quite a bit of military history as a kid, including The Encyclopedia of Battles several times.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #332 on: March 03, 2022, 11:41:59 PM »
A bit of good news.

Germans welcome Ukrainian refugees by train: 'It could have been us'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60611188

Quote
In Berlin's central railway station the trains arriving from the east come carrying thousands of refugees every day - men, women and children fleeing Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.

Those who want to head onwards get free train tickets to anywhere in Europe. Those who don't, or don't know where they should go, get ushered down to a cavernous hall.

What they find is a huge operation to welcome them. Food and drink is handed out along with sim cards for phones, and there medical teams, translators, volunteers and organisers to help.

And there's a crowd, hundreds strong, of German families standing there too, offering places in their homes to the refugees.

A friend of mine is from the region and he had his girlfriend in Kiev up until Tuesday when she and some friends managed to get away.  Once they reached the Moldovan border, it was pretty smooth sailing - supplies were given to them, friendly people everywhere, transport available.  I think she arrives in Sweden today.


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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #333 on: March 04, 2022, 12:22:02 AM »
No, I think most of the world is watching the situation in Ukraine right now. Those of us with an interest in 20th century geopolitics immediately spotted similarities to 1939. I certainly appreciate the idea of a low-information diet and am grateful that I don't have cable TV, but I don't think it's a superior position to be completely ignorant of the broader world.

When you say 1939, my thoughts go to the Soviet invasion of Finland starting the Finnish Winter War.  Was that what you meant or do you think of a wider scope?

Imma

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #334 on: March 04, 2022, 12:45:30 AM »
A bit of good news.

Germans welcome Ukrainian refugees by train: 'It could have been us'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60611188

Quote
In Berlin's central railway station the trains arriving from the east come carrying thousands of refugees every day - men, women and children fleeing Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.

Those who want to head onwards get free train tickets to anywhere in Europe. Those who don't, or don't know where they should go, get ushered down to a cavernous hall.

What they find is a huge operation to welcome them. Food and drink is handed out along with sim cards for phones, and there medical teams, translators, volunteers and organisers to help.

And there's a crowd, hundreds strong, of German families standing there too, offering places in their homes to the refugees.

A friend of mine is from the region and he had his girlfriend in Kiev up until Tuesday when she and some friends managed to get away.  Once they reached the Moldovan border, it was pretty smooth sailing - supplies were given to them, friendly people everywhere, transport available.  I think she arrives in Sweden today.

Good to hear she's safe!

In my corner of Europe I hear similar sories. Ukrainians arrive in my city every day. Some by train, but it also seems like many Ukrainians just put their most important belongings in their car and drove here. Many people are donating clothing, food, pet supplies and toys and offer living spaces for those people. I also know of several local initiatives of people who are driving to Poland with a truck full of supplies. Trains are free for refugees in most European countries and in my country roadside assistance is free for Ukrainians too now.

In the past we've not always been kind to refugees in my country so I'm really glad to see people are all supporting the Ukraine right now. There are some Putin apologists in our parliament but I would see public opinion is 95% behind Ukraine and it's citizens.

former player

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #335 on: March 04, 2022, 01:58:28 AM »
To quote a former Ukrainian prime minister yesterday: "Putin will create a desert and call it peace".

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #336 on: March 04, 2022, 02:37:50 AM »
This thought has been in my head since the second day, when Russia seemed to be moving a little slowly

The experts were surpised by how "restrained" the initial attack was, very low share of forces were deployed. The prevailing idea appears to be that they hoped to be able to achieve a swift victory and meet little resistance / whatever was there would crumble quickly, but that didn't work out as planned so now the more traditional russian approach is underway with massive shelling etc.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #337 on: March 04, 2022, 04:42:27 AM »

I hadn't heard about the counterattack or Bucha, although I had heard about the rest.  Where did you hear about those two?

Yesterday was a short video of soldiers raising the flag at city hall after surrounding Russian units (can't find it right now).

Today was this video of an armored column approaching Bucha.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499699405477322754

And this video of what's left of one in Irpin.  Videos were filmed just a couple miles apart, but I can't say in which order they were filmed or if it's the same unit. The area is still contested.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499443476420861954

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #338 on: March 04, 2022, 05:37:51 AM »
One thing I've noticed is what seem like bots out in force. If someone on Reddit, Instagram posts something sympathetic to Ukraine, a number of people posting that it is fake news, that Russia is only fighting USA, Nato forces, not Ukraine, that captured soldiers are not Russian but Ukraine is fighting Ukrainians. I mean to me it seems patiently false, but the amount of these bots is crazy..

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #339 on: March 04, 2022, 06:04:02 AM »
(following the thread and broader topic with great interest, but not much or maybe too much too say, and not enough time).

Does anyone think it likely that Ukraine will win a decisive ground victory over the Russian army? This thought has been in my head since the second day, when Russia seemed to be moving a little slowly, and the first videos of farmers pulling away Russian armored vehicles with tractors started to pop up. I thought "wow, the Russians launched an attack with 6 prongs, and with a force of 180,000 and half in reserve, some of the prongs must be pretty small. If NATO saturated the countryside with weapons, they could be cut off and soon annihilated." Since then the Russians seem to be doing, if anything, worse. If they were destined for success it seems like their momentum should be accelerating.

War is not just a numbers game. Like a stock market, it is also a mind game. If the Ukrainians destroy enough equipment and the Russians start to run out of supplies, a surrender could become contagious. Could we see a rapid collapse of nearly all Russian units deployed more than 50 miles from their border?
I don't think so.  For several reasons:
1) The Russian troops on the ground are in the dark, and don't have independent access to news.  There are a number of videos from Ukrainians, in which the Russian troops have no idea even what their destination is, or the Russian troops have been told that they'd be welcomed with open arms by the Ukrainians, or they'd been told they weren't going into combat.  You'd better believe the boots on the ground have no idea about the 40-mile convoy, or the disastrous airborne assaults, or the videos of farmers towing abandoned equipment, or the massive destruction from artillery barrages.
2) Putin appears to be willing to dig in his heels.  Criminalizing dissent, attempting to prop up the ruble via the central bank (we'll see how long that lasts), feeding troops into the wood chipper.  It'll get worse in Russia before it gets better, and the same goes for Ukraine.
3) As much as farmers towing tanks is amusing, overall, Russians are gaining ground in the south.  It's a slog, but they're progressing.  The good news stories show the Ukrainians taking out a handful of vehicles here, a few hundred troops there, but in the big picture isn't as rosy.
4) There are some opinions that the Russians don't *have* to run a Blitzkrieg, and that the 40-mile traffic jam is just their way of doing things, until their artillery is in range of Kiev and they can start the bombardment, a la Aleppo.  In other words, Russia is simply going scorched earth.

Now, Ukraine has seemed cautious so far, and hasn't made any large frontal attacks.  Which I think is wise.  With all the weapons flooding into the country, the Ukrainians have an awful lot of ability to strike back.  The question then becomes: how to strike back most efficiently and effectively?

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #340 on: March 04, 2022, 07:10:26 AM »
One thing I've noticed is what seem like bots out in force. If someone on Reddit, Instagram posts something sympathetic to Ukraine, a number of people posting that it is fake news, that Russia is only fighting USA, Nato forces, not Ukraine, that captured soldiers are not Russian but Ukraine is fighting Ukrainians. I mean to me it seems patiently false, but the amount of these bots is crazy..

They've been honing this disinformation strategy on US elections.  Why not use it during a war?

partgypsy

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #341 on: March 04, 2022, 07:20:28 AM »
One thing I've noticed is what seem like bots out in force. If someone on Reddit, Instagram posts something sympathetic to Ukraine, a number of people posting that it is fake news, that Russia is only fighting USA, Nato forces, not Ukraine, that captured soldiers are not Russian but Ukraine is fighting Ukrainians. I mean to me it seems patiently false, but the amount of these bots is crazy..

They've been honing this disinformation strategy on US elections.  Why not use it during a war?
it's just crazy. Very 1984esqe. Makes me realize, it's not necessarily to convince people of these things, but cause enough hesitation and doubt, or rationalizations  so that other countries do not act, or delay in acting. I do know from my Polish relative that for real, Poland is taking in Ukrainians fleeing the war. Is helping in other ways. It's heavy and serious on everyone's mind whether Poland will be pulled into the war. I am going to limit my news to something in eve (but not right before bed) and this thread.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2022, 07:41:03 AM by partgypsy »

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #342 on: March 04, 2022, 07:39:55 AM »
One thing I've noticed is what seem like bots out in force. If someone on Reddit, Instagram posts something sympathetic to Ukraine, a number of people posting that it is fake news, that Russia is only fighting USA, Nato forces, not Ukraine, that captured soldiers are not Russian but Ukraine is fighting Ukrainians. I mean to me it seems patiently false, but the amount of these bots is crazy..

They've been honing this disinformation strategy on US elections.  Why not use it during a war?
it's just crazy. Very 1984esqe. Makes me realize, it's not necessarily to convince people of these things, but cause enough hesitation and doubt, or rationalizations  so that other countries do not act, or delay in acting. I do know from my Polish relative that for real, Poland is taking in Ukrainians fleeing the war, is helping in other ways, and heavy on everyone's mind whether Poland will be pulled into the war as well. I am going to limit my news to something in eve (but not right before bed) and this thread.

I mean, if you scroll up enough in this thread you'll see evidence of the propaganda. There have been a couple people who were firmly smacked down for falling for the propaganda.

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #343 on: March 04, 2022, 07:44:39 AM »
One thing I've noticed is what seem like bots out in force. If someone on Reddit, Instagram posts something sympathetic to Ukraine, a number of people posting that it is fake news, that Russia is only fighting USA, Nato forces, not Ukraine, that captured soldiers are not Russian but Ukraine is fighting Ukrainians. I mean to me it seems patiently false, but the amount of these bots is crazy..

They've been honing this disinformation strategy on US elections.  Why not use it during a war?
it's just crazy. Very 1984esqe. Makes me realize, it's not necessarily to convince people of these things, but cause enough hesitation and doubt, or rationalizations  so that other countries do not act, or delay in acting. I do know from my Polish relative that for real, Poland is taking in Ukrainians fleeing the war. Is helping in other ways. It's heavy and serious on everyone's mind whether Poland will be pulled into the war. I am going to limit my news to something in eve (but not right before bed) and this thread.

You can thank cigarette companies for introducing the world to this type of hesitation/doubt strategy (to great effect) and then the huge industry of climate change deniers/apologists for showing the world how powerful deceitful messaging really is.  Russia was just paying attention.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #344 on: March 04, 2022, 08:12:42 AM »
One thing I've noticed is what seem like bots out in force. If someone on Reddit, Instagram posts something sympathetic to Ukraine, a number of people posting that it is fake news, that Russia is only fighting USA, Nato forces, not Ukraine, that captured soldiers are not Russian but Ukraine is fighting Ukrainians. I mean to me it seems patiently false, but the amount of these bots is crazy..

They've been honing this disinformation strategy on US elections.  Why not use it during a war?
it's just crazy. Very 1984esqe. Makes me realize, it's not necessarily to convince people of these things, but cause enough hesitation and doubt, or rationalizations  so that other countries do not act, or delay in acting. I do know from my Polish relative that for real, Poland is taking in Ukrainians fleeing the war. Is helping in other ways. It's heavy and serious on everyone's mind whether Poland will be pulled into the war. I am going to limit my news to something in eve (but not right before bed) and this thread.

You can thank cigarette companies for introducing the world to this type of hesitation/doubt strategy (to great effect) and then the huge industry of climate change deniers/apologists for showing the world how powerful deceitful messaging really is.  Russia was just paying attention.

Lots of stuff like that.  Think about global warming.  The global warming war is the war Mr. Putin should be helping to fight and not killing babies.  His young soldiers attacking the non greenhouse gas emitting  nuke plant was definitely a** backwards.

I don't get why they aren't taking out the stalled super long convoy.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #345 on: March 04, 2022, 08:17:21 AM »
Lots of stuff like that.  Think about global warming.  The global warming war is the war Mr. Putin should be helping to fight and not killing babies.  His young soldiers attacking the non greenhouse gas emitting  nuke plant was definitely a** backwards. I don't get why they aren't taking out the stalled super long convoy.
From massive increases in agricultural production to opening up their northern water routes, Russia is positioned to gain from a warmer planet.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/16/magazine/russia-climate-migration-crisis.html

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #346 on: March 04, 2022, 08:17:50 AM »
You can thank cigarette companies for introducing the world to this type of hesitation/doubt strategy (to great effect) and then the huge industry of climate change deniers/apologists for showing the world how powerful deceitful messaging really is.  Russia was just paying attention.
FWIW, Russia also has a history of supporting environmentalist movements in Europe and the US.  When those areas decide not to drill for their own oil, demand persists, and guess who stands ready to supply it?  Yep, Russia.  The same amount gets produced and consumed, but Russia benefits at the expense of western nations.

Lots of stuff like that.  Think about global warming.  The global warming war is the war Mr. Putin should be helping to fight and not killing babies.  His young soldiers attacking the non greenhouse gas emitting  nuke plant was definitely a** backwards.

I don't get why they aren't taking out the stalled super long convoy.
Putin and the Russian oligarchs don't care about climate change.  It is literally about the least of their concerns.  They care about money, power, and prestige.  Taking "back" Ukraine is supposed to be Putin's legacy.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #347 on: March 04, 2022, 08:23:27 AM »

I don't get why they aren't taking out the stalled super long convoy.

Every day they have to decide where to send reinforcements to make the greatest effect. For four days now that line of vehicles hasn't moved. It's not a threat. Meanwhile the Russians keep trying to push into Kyiv from the west and they're gradually pushing from the south of the country and making progress there.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #348 on: March 04, 2022, 09:25:29 AM »
It's sad that Ukraine is basically on death watch now.  My sister in Austria has registered with a couple of organizations to take in a Ukrainian refugee and says there have been lots of anti-war protests there.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #349 on: March 04, 2022, 09:43:40 AM »

I don't get why they aren't taking out the stalled super long convoy.

That convoy is probably out of fuel with multiple broken-down vehicles blocking the route. With the whole countryside turning to mud, even taking a tracked vehicle off road is likely to get it stuck - to say nothing of a wheeled vehicle.

Even with relatively good maintenance military vehicles are just not as reliable as a regular civilian vehicle. They sit in a parking lot 99% of the time and often goes months without driving. That has a lot of negative side effects (dried out seals, dry rot on tires, bad fuel, etc.). Also, the quality/reliability of the 500,000th Honda Civic that roles off the production line is going to be much higher than the 500th tank or truck. Military vehicles are produced in fairly small quantities and if anything, the factory has an incentive to keep producing spare parts and doing maintenance.

I was a convoy commander for a 1,300-mile convoy to go to a training site several years ago. Out of 20ish vehicles at least 5-6 had breakdowns and a couple ended up having to be towed. And that was frankly a better result than average. For some units even going 30-40 miles they will probably have at least one vehicle breakdown.