Ukraine

[Travis]

I would think that Ukraine would want to hold onto as much of it’s grain as it can.  It won’t be a certainty that they can plant crops this year, so why sell a valuable commodity?  The countries that depend on their wheat might find themselves short sooner than expected.

Lebanon ran out yesterday.

[Travis]

Somewhat irrelevant unless the front was only a mile or two from the sea. Russia has captured a swath of land about 20-60 miles wide from the Sea of Azov (Black Sea) running from Crimea up to the Donbas (except the holdouts in Mariupol). Really all that matters is the main highway that connects them (E105 north to Melitopol then the E58 east to Mariupol and on to Rostov-on-Don in Russia). As long as Russia has a decent buffer along that so Ukrainian troops can't directly observe and fire on that road they're fine.

Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea from Odessa - but Mariupol was their second largest port. Russia already had access to the Black Sea from Sochi and other ports but Russian interior infrastructure (roads, rail, rivers, canals) has never been great so getting a port closer to agricultural/mineral/industrial production areas would be beneficial.

They've captured a wide swath, sure, but it's a nearly-250-mile-wide front, so it can't be densely defended.   Sure, they can concentrate on the highways, but still.  I also have to wonder about Russia's ability to defend such a long front, from a recon/intel point of view, while the Ukrainians have all sorts of NATO-provided reconnaissance.

If Ukraine can get back across the river and drop artillery anywhere on the highway between Crimea and Rostov, the whole front gets put at risk. Crimea isn't worth keeping for Russia if it can't protect that road, especially if it loses control of Kherson. That happens, and Crimea goes thirsty. The river had a canal going to the area that Ukraine dammed after the region was taken from them back in 2012. The first thing Russia did after seizing the river was to reopen the canal. Prior to that, Russia was shipping fresh water into the area at enormous expense and watching the farmland dry out.

[OtherJen]

I would think that Ukraine would want to hold onto as much of it’s grain as it can.  It won’t be a certainty that they can plant crops this year, so why sell a valuable commodity?  The countries that depend on their wheat might find themselves short sooner than expected.

Lebanon ran out yesterday.

Yikes, and during Ramadan too. I'd heard it was a possibility, but there's nothing about it on Al-Jazeera. I haven't checked the Arab-American News yet.

[pecunia]

Somewhat irrelevant unless the front was only a mile or two from the sea. Russia has captured a swath of land about 20-60 miles wide from the Sea of Azov (Black Sea) running from Crimea up to the Donbas (except the holdouts in Mariupol). Really all that matters is the main highway that connects them (E105 north to Melitopol then the E58 east to Mariupol and on to Rostov-on-Don in Russia). As long as Russia has a decent buffer along that so Ukrainian troops can't directly observe and fire on that road they're fine.

Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea from Odessa - but Mariupol was their second largest port. Russia already had access to the Black Sea from Sochi and other ports but Russian interior infrastructure (roads, rail, rivers, canals) has never been great so getting a port closer to agricultural/mineral/industrial production areas would be beneficial.

They've captured a wide swath, sure, but it's a nearly-250-mile-wide front, so it can't be densely defended.   Sure, they can concentrate on the highways, but still.  I also have to wonder about Russia's ability to defend such a long front, from a recon/intel point of view, while the Ukrainians have all sorts of NATO-provided reconnaissance.

If Ukraine can get back across the river and drop artillery anywhere on the highway between Crimea and Rostov, the whole front gets put at risk. Crimea isn't worth keeping for Russia if it can't protect that road, especially if it loses control of Kherson. That happens, and Crimea goes thirsty. The river had a canal going to the area that Ukraine dammed after the region was taken from them back in 2012. The first thing Russia did after seizing the river was to reopen the canal. Prior to that, Russia was shipping fresh water into the area at enormous expense and watching the farmland dry out.

Putting a problem like that on Russia and making them expend resources to bring water to the people is a bit like opening another front but one where Ukraine expends no lives.  It's kind of like a sanction too.  Could explosives block a canal?

[Sibley]

Somewhat irrelevant unless the front was only a mile or two from the sea. Russia has captured a swath of land about 20-60 miles wide from the Sea of Azov (Black Sea) running from Crimea up to the Donbas (except the holdouts in Mariupol). Really all that matters is the main highway that connects them (E105 north to Melitopol then the E58 east to Mariupol and on to Rostov-on-Don in Russia). As long as Russia has a decent buffer along that so Ukrainian troops can't directly observe and fire on that road they're fine.

Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea from Odessa - but Mariupol was their second largest port. Russia already had access to the Black Sea from Sochi and other ports but Russian interior infrastructure (roads, rail, rivers, canals) has never been great so getting a port closer to agricultural/mineral/industrial production areas would be beneficial.

They've captured a wide swath, sure, but it's a nearly-250-mile-wide front, so it can't be densely defended.   Sure, they can concentrate on the highways, but still.  I also have to wonder about Russia's ability to defend such a long front, from a recon/intel point of view, while the Ukrainians have all sorts of NATO-provided reconnaissance.

If Ukraine can get back across the river and drop artillery anywhere on the highway between Crimea and Rostov, the whole front gets put at risk. Crimea isn't worth keeping for Russia if it can't protect that road, especially if it loses control of Kherson. That happens, and Crimea goes thirsty. The river had a canal going to the area that Ukraine dammed after the region was taken from them back in 2012. The first thing Russia did after seizing the river was to reopen the canal. Prior to that, Russia was shipping fresh water into the area at enormous expense and watching the farmland dry out.

Putting a problem like that on Russia and making them expend resources to bring water to the people is a bit like opening another front but one where Ukraine expends no lives.  It's kind of like a sanction too.  Could explosives block a canal?

They had previously blocked the canal, I had read that they poured concrete. Blowing up the canal would disrupt the water flow I'm sure.

[Travis]

Somewhat irrelevant unless the front was only a mile or two from the sea. Russia has captured a swath of land about 20-60 miles wide from the Sea of Azov (Black Sea) running from Crimea up to the Donbas (except the holdouts in Mariupol). Really all that matters is the main highway that connects them (E105 north to Melitopol then the E58 east to Mariupol and on to Rostov-on-Don in Russia). As long as Russia has a decent buffer along that so Ukrainian troops can't directly observe and fire on that road they're fine.

Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea from Odessa - but Mariupol was their second largest port. Russia already had access to the Black Sea from Sochi and other ports but Russian interior infrastructure (roads, rail, rivers, canals) has never been great so getting a port closer to agricultural/mineral/industrial production areas would be beneficial.

They've captured a wide swath, sure, but it's a nearly-250-mile-wide front, so it can't be densely defended.   Sure, they can concentrate on the highways, but still.  I also have to wonder about Russia's ability to defend such a long front, from a recon/intel point of view, while the Ukrainians have all sorts of NATO-provided reconnaissance.

If Ukraine can get back across the river and drop artillery anywhere on the highway between Crimea and Rostov, the whole front gets put at risk. Crimea isn't worth keeping for Russia if it can't protect that road, especially if it loses control of Kherson. That happens, and Crimea goes thirsty. The river had a canal going to the area that Ukraine dammed after the region was taken from them back in 2012. The first thing Russia did after seizing the river was to reopen the canal. Prior to that, Russia was shipping fresh water into the area at enormous expense and watching the farmland dry out.

Putting a problem like that on Russia and making them expend resources to bring water to the people is a bit like opening another front but one where Ukraine expends no lives.  It's kind of like a sanction too.  Could explosives block a canal?

They had previously blocked the canal, I had read that they poured concrete. Blowing up the canal would disrupt the water flow I'm sure.

Russia "reopened" the canal with explosives. It'll have to be dammed again. Ukraine has to seize both sides of the river first.

[Radagast]

Blocking a canal with explosives would be very hard, unless it crosses over a bridge, or under a large steep mountain you could bring down on top. Otherwise you just make a hole, and the water will pond up and fill the hole soon and keep flowing like normal. Same for damming it up, it would be easy to remove any dam.

[LennStar]

It is impressive how Putin has suddenly become the embodiment of every book and movie villain, down to the last evil tendency. And we had thought those were mere fiction.

Suddenly?

https://www.ted.com/talks/garry_kasparov_stand_with_ukraine_in_the_fight_against_evil/transcript

[Radagast]

It is impressive how Putin has suddenly become the embodiment of every book and movie villain, down to the last evil tendency. And we had thought those were mere fiction.

Suddenly?

https://www.ted.com/talks/garry_kasparov_stand_with_ukraine_in_the_fight_against_evil/transcript

The US war on Iraq introduced a large amount of moral relativism into the "Western" world view. Saddam Hussein was evil, but the US invasion was bad. The US may have had better intentions than Saddam, but if the results were similar, who was really the bad guy? Even a few years ago many Americans would agree the Putin was a person they wouldn't want as their own president, but there was still a general respect and "bad boy" admiration for him such as https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wga5A6R9BJg (I was introduced to that video in 2017 I think). He really had to go over the top to finally reveal himself as truly Evil.

It is also crazy how dictators are simply unable to understand democracies. As an example, Japan in WWII expected the US to insist on a peace treaty after Pearl Harbor. Democracies are as unpredictable from a dictator's perspective as dictators are from a democracy's. I think the underlying issue is a lack of information flow out of the democracies. A free market democracy will shrug off pretty much anything, until a sudden breaking point is crossed and then it is all out war. Dictators communicate with other dictators by constant mutual aggression, so that they generally have a pretty good idea what the boundaries are. As an example, Erdogan shot down Russian jets that crossed Turkish airspace, so now Putin doesn't mess with him any more. Putin would never, ever mess with China. So far, no democracy has shot down Russian jets which skim their airspace, so Putin still doesn't know their limits. Possibly, "Western" nations should be taking more aggressive action to deliberately kill Russian military members through direct attacks when they cross lines, which is the only way of conveying to Putin where the boundaries are. Instead, we are all demur until he crosses an unknowable line, and then suddenly we throw everything we have at him.

[pecunia]

Blocking a canal with explosives would be very hard, unless it crosses over a bridge, or under a large steep mountain you could bring down on top. Otherwise you just make a hole, and the water will pond up and fill the hole soon and keep flowing like normal. Same for damming it up, it would be easy to remove any dam.

I was thinking you could form explosions on each side of the canal.  These would be shape charges and force the mass in the direction of the canal.  This mass from each side of the canal would block the flow.

[Radagast]

Blocking a canal with explosives would be very hard, unless it crosses over a bridge, or under a large steep mountain you could bring down on top. Otherwise you just make a hole, and the water will pond up and fill the hole soon and keep flowing like normal. Same for damming it up, it would be easy to remove any dam.

I was thinking you could form explosions on each side of the canal.  These would be shape charges and force the mass in the direction of the canal.  This mass from each side of the canal would block the flow.

You could, but honestly it would be hard to accomplish anything that could not be undone in a day with common construction equipment. A couple medium sized bulldozers could clear pretty much anything in a few hours.

[maizefolk]

Blocking a canal with explosives would be very hard, unless it crosses over a bridge, or under a large steep mountain you could bring down on top. Otherwise you just make a hole, and the water will pond up and fill the hole soon and keep flowing like normal. Same for damming it up, it would be easy to remove any dam.

I was thinking you could form explosions on each side of the canal.  These would be shape charges and force the mass in the direction of the canal.  This mass from each side of the canal would block the flow.

Water is remarkably persistent stuff and canals typically have to follow the grade of the earth. If it runs through a tunnel under a mountain and/or is being mechanically pumped up an incline (as many of the water supplies for California cities do) you could probably block it for a long time with explosives.

But short of that, the water is just going to go around any blockage you create, particularly since the explosion to push water into the main channel of the canal is going to create convenient new holes on either side of the canals current course.

[GuitarStv]

I say electrolyze the water . . . and then use the hydrogen and oxygen that it gives you to blow itself up.

[Radagast]

I thought "how hard could it be to find a giant canal on Google Earth anyhow?" Not very hard. The easiest way to cut off water would be to just blow the dam across the Dnipro river. Which would then drain a large reservoir all the way back to Zaporizhzhia and flood Kherson. Very easy to accomplish, and probably there is a good reason nobody has done it yet.

Also I thought "wait Crimea is nearly cut off from the mainland by the sea, how could they keep the elevation all the way across? maybe there is a bridge for the canal." But no, it just flows across the ground. Actually the best way would be to try and remove the canal banks at several points where it is very close to the sea or sea level lakes to divert the flow into those. It would still take a huge effort and just a matter of hours for common construction equipment to patch it up though. Targeting rail bridges would be a better use of resources without doubt.


Since apparently I don't feel like working today...

[zolotiyeruki]

It might only be a few hours' of work....once the water stops flowing.  But large quantities of flowing water are not to be trifled with.  Check out the videos of the Oroville Dam spillway failure.

[Radagast]

Depends on elevation head and flow rate. Oroville dam "At 770 feet (235 m) high, it is the tallest dam in the U.S." This canal is just a few feet deep, and not more than 40 feet above sea level at the top of the bank (less where I'm looking). Not too hard to stop a leak, I guess.

[Michael in ABQ]

I thought "how hard could it be to find a giant canal on Google Earth anyhow?" Not very hard. The easiest way to cut off water would be to just blow the dam across the Dnipro river. Which would then drain a large reservoir all the way back to Zaporizhzhia and flood Kherson. Very easy to accomplish, and probably there is a good reason nobody has done it yet.

Also I thought "wait Crimea is nearly cut off from the mainland by the sea, how could they keep the elevation all the way across? maybe there is a bridge for the canal." But no, it just flows across the ground. Actually the best way would be to try and remove the canal banks at several points where it is very close to the sea or sea level lakes to divert the flow into those. It would still take a huge effort and just a matter of hours for common construction equipment to patch it up though. Targeting rail bridges would be a better use of resources without doubt.


Since apparently I don't feel like working today...

Yeah, this canal is basically a river. Looks like it's about 250 feet across. The elevation at the beginning of the canal at the Dnieper River is about 70 feet and it drops to about 15-20 feet when it crosses into Crimea. It looks like the area the blocked it was about 10 miles from the border where another canal goes south and provides water to a bunch of fields.

https://www.google.com/maps/@46.2822971,33.273422,3a,75y,335.93h,82.34t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipPlOwnMh8Zy2wEafdjImyB5ZgSVo7vp2nXOZIoR!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipPlOwnMh8Zy2wEafdjImyB5ZgSVo7vp2nXOZIoR%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya112.00001-ro-0-fo100!7i4000!8i2000

Here's an example of some trenches between the ocean and canal, just west of the border with Crimea.
https://www.google.com/maps/@46.1585891,33.6015999,778m/data=!3m1!1e3!5m1!1e4

[Radagast]

Found the spot :). The canal has a drain, along with a road bridge. Taking that out could cause a few days inconvenience.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/%D0%9C17,+Khersons'ka+oblast,+Ukraine/@46.1490992,33.625699,1120m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c180abc46b5ef5:0xf0236780cc10526f!8m2!3d46.1490854!4d33.6278732

Looking around more, there could be a number of places where it could be interrupted. There are a number of elevation control structures where flow is diverted to surrounding areas at lower elevations. I even found a place where the canal is bridged across a river!

But enough on that hypothetical topic from me I think.

[pecunia]

Found the spot :). The canal has a drain, along with a road bridge. Taking that out could cause a few days inconvenience.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/%D0%9C17,+Khersons'ka+oblast,+Ukraine/@46.1490992,33.625699,1120m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c180abc46b5ef5:0xf0236780cc10526f!8m2!3d46.1490854!4d33.6278732

Looking around more, there could be a number of places where it could be interrupted. There are a number of elevation control structures where flow is diverted to surrounding areas at lower elevations. I even found a place where the canal is bridged across a river!

But enough on that hypothetical topic from me I think.

Great - They can reroute the water with a little thought.  Water is life. 

Has it been confirmed whether Putin is using chemical weapons?  Is it possible to confirm it?  Seems like the Russians have the place surrounded and can simply burn all the corpses.  Without solid evidence, it's hearsay.

[Sibley]

Found the spot :). The canal has a drain, along with a road bridge. Taking that out could cause a few days inconvenience.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/%D0%9C17,+Khersons'ka+oblast,+Ukraine/@46.1490992,33.625699,1120m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c180abc46b5ef5:0xf0236780cc10526f!8m2!3d46.1490854!4d33.6278732

Looking around more, there could be a number of places where it could be interrupted. There are a number of elevation control structures where flow is diverted to surrounding areas at lower elevations. I even found a place where the canal is bridged across a river!

But enough on that hypothetical topic from me I think.

Great - They can reroute the water with a little thought.  Water is life. 

Has it been confirmed whether Putin is using chemical weapons?  Is it possible to confirm it?  Seems like the Russians have the place surrounded and can simply burn all the corpses.  Without solid evidence, it's hearsay.

From what I can see - not confirmed, but definite concern that Russia could use chemical weapons.

[Sibley]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1513926555336065026 I don't consider this guy to be a really good source, but he's copying and pasting from this article:
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/20220411.aspx

And I really don't know how reliable that author/source is, but here's a bit of info on him https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Dunnigan

However. If he's right about the recruitment timeline and numbers, then the Russian army is going to get a lot smaller in a few months when a bunch of current contracts are up and they're not renewed. And the equipment claims do make sense to me, given what has been witnessed, etc. If anyone has better luck checking sources on this, please share.

[Travis]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1513926555336065026 I don't consider this guy to be a really good source, but he's copying and pasting from this article:
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/20220411.aspx

And I really don't know how reliable that author/source is, but here's a bit of info on him https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Dunnigan

However. If he's right about the recruitment timeline and numbers, then the Russian army is going to get a lot smaller in a few months when a bunch of current contracts are up and they're not renewed. And the equipment claims do make sense to me, given what has been witnessed, etc. If anyone has better luck checking sources on this, please share.

Trent is a great source for technical information. He's been educating the masses on Russian logistical failures since Day 1. He becomes difficult to read when he steps outside of his lane, particularly when he gets political. He likes to take shots at Biden and the intelligence community whenever he can, and he's been spectacularly wrong on a few things. Don't take him at his word if it's not about supply operations.*

Dunnigan isn't a bad source for general military information, but if you're looking for a primary source I wouldn't use him.  What he's describing as far as demographics is spot on.  The Russian army likes to conscript and recruit from the poorest and most run-down parts of the empire.  You can buy your way out of conscription, which means the only people from western Russia who serve in the military end up in the navy, air force, or officer corps where life is better.  If this next offensive in Donbass fails, the Russian army will start to fall apart quickly and could take a generation to rebuild.

* This has happened with a number of analysts and commentators in the last month. They get a following talking about what they know well, then try to branch out and fall on their faces.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Water is life. 

The spice must flow.

I read that Germany admitted it's friendship with Russia was a mistake... which is an odd way to lump years of partnership over NordStream 2, when it was conscious decisions all the way - and all of those decisions made after Russia annexed Crimea.

And now Ukraine is giving Germany the cold shoulder, and Germany wants to protest?  Really?  Because right now, Germany is buying Russian oil & gas.  And a lot of that money goes to support Russia's military... including artilary and missles that kill thousands of civilians.  If Germany wants to feel outrage, I would suggest looking in the mirror.

(In this quote, "President" refers to German President Steinmeier)

On a visit to Poland, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier admitted he had offered to visit Ukraine with other EU leaders, but Kyiv had told him he was not welcome right now.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220412-not-wanted-in-kyiv-pressure-mounts-on-germany-after-ukraine-snub

[LennStar]

So Putin put the Russian general that was responsible for the worst stuff in Syria at the top commander for Ukraine. You know, like bombarding of hospitals, waiting lines and such.

There won't be much left of East Ukraine when Putin declares his victory over the Nazis in 4 weeks.

[pecunia]

So Putin put the Russian general that was responsible for the worst stuff in Syria at the top commander for Ukraine. You know, like bombarding of hospitals, waiting lines and such.

There won't be much left of East Ukraine when Putin declares his victory over the Nazis in 4 weeks.

Looks like those people in Mariupol finally fell.  They sure did fight hard.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-1026-ukrainian-marines-surrendered-mariupol-2022-04-13/

I'll bet the Russians kill every one that survived.  This is the bunch they called Nazis.

[Sibley]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1513926555336065026 I don't consider this guy to be a really good source, but he's copying and pasting from this article:
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/20220411.aspx

And I really don't know how reliable that author/source is, but here's a bit of info on him https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Dunnigan

However. If he's right about the recruitment timeline and numbers, then the Russian army is going to get a lot smaller in a few months when a bunch of current contracts are up and they're not renewed. And the equipment claims do make sense to me, given what has been witnessed, etc. If anyone has better luck checking sources on this, please share.

Trent is a great source for technical information. He's been educating the masses on Russian logistical failures since Day 1. He becomes difficult to read when he steps outside of his lane, particularly when he gets political. He likes to take shots at Biden and the intelligence community whenever he can, and he's been spectacularly wrong on a few things. Don't take him at his word if it's not about supply operations.*

Dunnigan isn't a bad source for general military information, but if you're looking for a primary source I wouldn't use him.  What he's describing as far as demographics is spot on.  The Russian army likes to conscript and recruit from the poorest and most run-down parts of the empire.  You can buy your way out of conscription, which means the only people from western Russia who serve in the military end up in the navy, air force, or officer corps where life is better.  If this next offensive in Donbass fails, the Russian army will start to fall apart quickly and could take a generation to rebuild.

* This has happened with a number of analysts and commentators in the last month. They get a following talking about what they know well, then try to branch out and fall on their faces.

Most of what I've seen from Trent is the logistical stuff. And the demographics aren't hard to get right - there's all sorts of data out there. As usual, I'll apply some salt but hope for the best. It would be lovely if Russia manages to self destruct their military in the next month.

[Sibley]

Water is life. 

The spice must flow.

I read that Germany admitted it's friendship with Russia was a mistake... which is an odd way to lump years of partnership over NordStream 2, when it was conscious decisions all the way - and all of those decisions made after Russia annexed Crimea.

And now Ukraine is giving Germany the cold shoulder, and Germany wants to protest?  Really?  Because right now, Germany is buying Russian oil & gas.  And a lot of that money goes to support Russia's military... including artilary and missles that kill thousands of civilians.  If Germany wants to feel outrage, I would suggest looking in the mirror.

(In this quote, "President" refers to German President Steinmeier)

On a visit to Poland, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier admitted he had offered to visit Ukraine with other EU leaders, but Kyiv had told him he was not welcome right now.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220412-not-wanted-in-kyiv-pressure-mounts-on-germany-after-ukraine-snub

What's the phrase, lie down with dogs get up with fleas?

Of course Germany is getting the cold shoulder. Yeah, it's great that they've sent weapons to Ukraine but buying the gas/oil is far worse.

[Travis]

So Putin put the Russian general that was responsible for the worst stuff in Syria at the top commander for Ukraine. You know, like bombarding of hospitals, waiting lines and such.

There won't be much left of East Ukraine when Putin declares his victory over the Nazis in 4 weeks.

Looks like those people in Mariupol finally fell.  They sure did fight hard.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-1026-ukrainian-marines-surrendered-mariupol-2022-04-13/

I'll bet the Russians kill every one that survived.  This is the bunch they called Nazis.

Mariupol has not fallen. The 36th Marine Brigade and the Azov Battalion are still fighting.

[Sibley]

So Putin put the Russian general that was responsible for the worst stuff in Syria at the top commander for Ukraine. You know, like bombarding of hospitals, waiting lines and such.

There won't be much left of East Ukraine when Putin declares his victory over the Nazis in 4 weeks.

Looks like those people in Mariupol finally fell.  They sure did fight hard.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-1026-ukrainian-marines-surrendered-mariupol-2022-04-13/

I'll bet the Russians kill every one that survived.  This is the bunch they called Nazis.

Mariupol has not fallen. The 36th Marine Brigade and the Azov Battalion are still fighting.

I don't think they can surrender, and if I am aware of it I'm sure they know it. Russia will kill them, one way or another. So, if you're going to get killed anyway, why not keep fighting?

"Reuters could not independently confirm the surrender. Ukrainian defence ministry spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said he had no information about it, and there was no immediate comment from the Ukrainian president's office or the Ukrainian general staff."

Russia is probably saying it more for their populace than anything else.

[Zamboni]

Yeah, I think we can pretty safely discount anything that starts with "Russia says. . . " as complete and utter BS.

[Poundwise]

Wow, the Ukrainians sunk 'Moskva', the Russian flagship in the Black Sea! An encounter with this battleship was recently memorialized in a Ukrainian stamp.  https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/14/breaking-russian-flagship-missile-cruiser-moskva-destroyed-in-ukraine/

[Radagast]

"Moskva" is what Russians call their capital city :D

(I wouldn't have known that had I not traveled through Russia)

[Sibley]

Wow, the Ukrainians sunk 'Moskva', the Russian flagship in the Black Sea! An encounter with this battleship was recently memorialized in a Ukrainian stamp.  https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/14/breaking-russian-flagship-missile-cruiser-moskva-destroyed-in-ukraine/

Russia's saying it was ammo detonation as a result of a fire, but no word what caused the fire.
https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783435471.html

Whoo! Go Ukraine!

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Wow, the Ukrainians sunk 'Moskva', the Russian flagship in the Black Sea! An encounter with this battleship was recently memorialized in a Ukrainian stamp.  https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/14/breaking-russian-flagship-missile-cruiser-moskva-destroyed-in-ukraine/

Russia's saying it was ammo detonation as a result of a fire, but no word what caused the fire.
https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783435471.html

Whoo! Go Ukraine!

Russia is silent, and Ukraine is claiming they used missiles known to be in their possession.  That's as close as agreement on the facts this will get, I suspect.

"Ukrainian officials claimed that shore-based anti-ship guided missiles hit Moskva which had been operating from the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea."

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russian-navy-confirms-severe-damage-to-black-sea-cruiser-moskva-crew-abandoned-ship

[Sibley]

Just because I thought this was hilarious.... (hope this works)

[Zamboni]

Writing their headlines for them!

"ammo detonation as the result of the fire" reads like "*shrug* he died because he fell out window" to me.

[Sibley]

Zelensky has changed tactics. He's not asking for NATO to intervene directly - he's just demanding the weapons so that Ukraine can do it themselves.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1514242356949704709

And it's apparently working.
https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1514289547751960586 --- the US is sending what seems like more "heavy duty" weapons and equipment.
https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1514022570957365251 --- drones ready to be sent, pending US approval


Also, because I like this picture, you can look at the picture too :)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/leaders-poland-baltic-states-head-kyiv-2022-04-13/  -- scroll down to the pictures, it's #2, the one with all 5 in front of the flags. Striking picture. I suspect Putin isn't a fan.

[Travis]

Writing their headlines for them!

"ammo detonation as the result of the fire" reads like "*shrug* he died because he fell out window" to me.

It's not wrong, there was an ammo fire. Ukrainian and Russian ammo. Ship is reported capsized. Sunrise isn't for a couple more hours and there's a really shitty storm right on top of it, so confirmation of damage and casualties won't come for a little while.

Russia also reported "all survivors evacuated" or something like that which could mean there were deaths. There's no way you detonate munitions on board and nobody dies. And you don't abandon ship unless you've given up on recovery efforts.

[Radagast]

Seriously, Russia should just give up. They are causing death and destruction, famine and poverty, and all they are getting is humiliated.

[Travis]

Seriously, Russia should just give up. They are causing death and destruction, famine and poverty, and all they are getting is humiliated.

That ship is irreplaceable. The Russian navy has never been a priority for funding (and shouldn't be), so losing a ship like this is catastrophic. Even if it stays afloat and they can tow it home, it would cost as much to repair as build another one.

[LennStar]

Writing their headlines for them!

"ammo detonation as the result of the fire" reads like "*shrug* he died because he fell out window" to me.

It's not wrong, there was an ammo fire. Ukrainian and Russian ammo. Ship is reported capsized.

Oh wow, that is a very costly blow. And even if it wasn't an Ukrainian missile, it was a Russian one that detonated at start, which also means it's an Ukrainian caused hit.

I wonder how Putins propaganda will spin this?

[Travis]

Writing their headlines for them!

"ammo detonation as the result of the fire" reads like "*shrug* he died because he fell out window" to me.

It's not wrong, there was an ammo fire. Ukrainian and Russian ammo. Ship is reported capsized.

Oh wow, that is a very costly blow. And even if it wasn't an Ukrainian missile, it was a Russian one that detonated at start, which also means it's an Ukrainian caused hit.

I wonder how Putins propaganda will spin this?

Sibley's original post is how it's being sold at the moment. They're only saying "there was a fire."

[Poundwise]

Wow, the Ukrainians sunk 'Moskva', the Russian flagship in the Black Sea! An encounter with this battleship was recently memorialized in a Ukrainian stamp.  https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/14/breaking-russian-flagship-missile-cruiser-moskva-destroyed-in-ukraine/

Oh, the Pentagon spokesman said they believe it's still afloat but it does show damage.

All the same, removing it from combat seems to be a significant gain for the Ukrainians.

[pecunia]

Wow, the Ukrainians sunk 'Moskva', the Russian flagship in the Black Sea! An encounter with this battleship was recently memorialized in a Ukrainian stamp.  https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/14/breaking-russian-flagship-missile-cruiser-moskva-destroyed-in-ukraine/

Oh, the Pentagon spokesman said they believe it's still afloat but it does show damage.

All the same, removing it from combat seems to be a significant gain for the Ukrainians.

Are there underwater drones that could be used to take out Russian ships or damage them?  The antenna may need to be on the surface, but certainly most of such a vehicle could be hidden.  The Ukrainians have had great success against tanks with aerial drones.  Would the ships sonar detect such an underwater drone or would it too have the element of stealth like the aerial drones?  Taking out or damaging Russian ships gives a lot of buck for the bang.

[lemanfan]

I guess that russky korabl finaly did go nakhuy itself. 

This war has really increased my understanding of the Cyrillic alphabet.  And I'm learning new Russian and Ukrainian words.

[Sibley]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-baltic-nuclear-deployment-if-nato-admits-sweden-finland-2022-04-14/

Russia is saying they'll have to station nukes in the Baltic if Sweden/Finland join NATO.

I saw this on reddit, and some of the comments indicated that there were already nukes at Kaliningrad. Now, my knowledge of geography in that area is vague, but I'm pretty sure that Kaliningrad is in fact on the Baltic Sea, or at least very ne. Conclusion: Russia is blustering.

I'm fairly sure that Sweden and Finland aren't going to take what Russia thinks into consideration in the decision if they want to join NATO or not. So, great job Russia for just reinforcing the arguments FOR joining NATO.

[pecunia]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-baltic-nuclear-deployment-if-nato-admits-sweden-finland-2022-04-14/

Russia is saying they'll have to station nukes in the Baltic if Sweden/Finland join NATO.

I saw this on reddit, and some of the comments indicated that there were already nukes at Kaliningrad. Now, my knowledge of geography in that area is vague, but I'm pretty sure that Kaliningrad is in fact on the Baltic Sea, or at least very ne. Conclusion: Russia is blustering.

I'm fairly sure that Sweden and Finland aren't going to take what Russia thinks into consideration in the decision if they want to join NATO or not. So, great job Russia for just reinforcing the arguments FOR joining NATO.

Both are in the EU so supposedly, they already have an alliance with many European countries.

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/glossary/mutual-defence-clause.html

I think joining NATO would provide more assurance to both countries of their safety in the event of further Russian aggression.  The EU clause looks more like protection by bankers and lawyers where NATO is a military alliance.

[Michael in ABQ]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-baltic-nuclear-deployment-if-nato-admits-sweden-finland-2022-04-14/

Russia is saying they'll have to station nukes in the Baltic if Sweden/Finland join NATO.

I saw this on reddit, and some of the comments indicated that there were already nukes at Kaliningrad. Now, my knowledge of geography in that area is vague, but I'm pretty sure that Kaliningrad is in fact on the Baltic Sea, or at least very ne. Conclusion: Russia is blustering.

I'm fairly sure that Sweden and Finland aren't going to take what Russia thinks into consideration in the decision if they want to join NATO or not. So, great job Russia for just reinforcing the arguments FOR joining NATO.

So the missiles will hit in 5 minutes instead of 10? Kind of a distinction without a difference.


Whenever I think of how weird it is to see this part of Russia separated by other countries (the Kaliningrad Oblast) I'm reminded of Alaska and how it's in a similar situation - albeit with much friendlier relations with the intervening country.

[Just Joe]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/14/putins-defence-chief-struck-by-mysterious-massive-heart-attack/

Stress? FSB?

[Sibley]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/14/putins-defence-chief-struck-by-mysterious-massive-heart-attack/

Stress? FSB?

There were rumors he'd had a heart attack last month, it was all over social media. But nothing was confirmed. It was notable enough that there were articles saying he'd made an appearance in the background of some meeting or other after not being seen for a while. Reuters had such an article I believe.