Ukraine

[jnw]

Imagining NATO forces flying over that 40 mile long convoy of Russian military, and bombing the heck out of it all.   Putin makes me sick.

[pecunia]

I also found this video to be very insightful as to the reasons behind the invasion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE
(watch at 1.5x)

Wow!  I thought I had been following this story quite closely.  None of the news reporters I've seen from multiple countries have made the obvious oil connection like this guy did.  I can see now that it is almost assured that Putin will take over the entire country.  It's not about Nazis.  It's about what it is always about money and power.  It's another oil war.

The sooner the world licks it's addiction to oil, the sooner more people will be free of tyrants.

[Abe]

Imagining NATO forces flying over that 40 mile long convoy of Russian military, and bombing the heck out of it all.   Putin makes me sick.

Yeah but Europe is still in the lending a neighbor a hose because their house is on fire, while hoping the psycho with a flamethrower setting houses on fire will skip theirs.

Also nato has always been a political stunt.

[dang1]

so far, the best I could hope for, is that this turns into a quagmire that precipitates Putin's downfall

[HPstache]

Ukraine is in trouble... this does not look good.  An insane amount of Russians forces pouring in.

[PDXTabs]

Imagining NATO forces flying over that 40 mile long convoy of Russian military, and bombing the heck out of it all.   Putin makes me sick.

Yeah but Europe is still in the lending a neighbor a hose because their house is on fire, while hoping the psycho with a flamethrower setting houses on fire will skip theirs.

Also nato has always been a political stunt.

I don't know about that. In the history of NATO how many NATO nations have been invaded?

With that said NATO nations so far seem unwilling to send personnel.

[dang1]

this crises might tip Finland to join NATO, even maybe Sweden https://inews.co.uk/news/world/why-arent-sweden-finland-nato-russia-fears-ukraine-nordic-countries-consider-joining-1486283

[PDXTabs]

this crises might tip Finland to join NATO, even maybe Sweden https://inews.co.uk/news/world/why-arent-sweden-finland-nato-russia-fears-ukraine-nordic-countries-consider-joining-1486283

Do they need to with the EU mutual defense clause? To be fair, it's complicated.

[Vashy]

Anyone have any thoughts on the best non-profits to give money to to help out the Ukrainian people?

I donated to the Red Cross (looked fairly deeply into how they work and like them a lot). They have a Ukraine appeal going.

[Sibley]

Trying to read between the lines of Zelensky's videos.... they're in trouble. Big trouble. If Ukraine is going to stand, the world is going to have to take more direct action. Problem is, if the world takes more direct action, Putin may well use nukes. There is no win here, at least short term. Long term, there's no way Russia can hold Ukraine. But that doesn't mean they can't do immense damage.

[Captain Cactus]

Imagining NATO forces flying over that 40 mile long convoy of Russian military, and bombing the heck out of it all.   Putin makes me sick.

I used to be on the logistics side of things in the Army... seeing a 40 mile long convoy moving so slowly, and placed together so densely, make them a prime target for an attack like the one you're fantasizing about... sadly Ukraine doesn't have the assets to accomplish this and thus there the convoy sits... almost taunting the US the do something about it.

[Vashy]

Trying to read between the lines of Zelensky's videos.... they're in trouble. Big trouble. If Ukraine is going to stand, the world is going to have to take more direct action. Problem is, if the world takes more direct action, Putin may well use nukes. There is no win here, at least short term. Long term, there's no way Russia can hold Ukraine. But that doesn't mean they can't do immense damage.

The EU has basically opened its very deep pockets and aid and support as well as military “freelancers” are streaming into the country. And if Ukraine becomes an EU member or a member candidate, there’s a Mutual military assistance agreement in the EU (which is showing right now it’s not a paper tiger and is already choking off the Russian economy).

[Dancin'Dog]

It would be great if the Russian oligarchs take care of Putin.  He's the problem, they have the easiest access to him and the assets to do the job.

[former player]

It would be great if the Russian oligarchs take care of Putin.  He's the problem, they have the easiest access to him and the assets to do the job.

Some of them are cutting and running from Putin, speaking out against the war in Ukraine.  Probably because they now have everything they want or need already outside Russia, including wives/girlfriends/children/houses/yachts/etc/etc, and in a choice between Russia and the West they are choosing the West.  They may also be hoping that speaking out now will either limit sanctions against them or help them claim asylum.

In other words, the oligarchs will do what they've always done and look out for themselves at the expense of everyone else.  Don't go looking to them for help.

[OtherJen]

It would be great if the Russian oligarchs take care of Putin.  He's the problem, they have the easiest access to him and the assets to do the job.

At this point, it does seem like the most likely and best-case scenario. Association with him is starting to hit them where it hurts. Any direct intervention by NATO is likely to have nuclear consequences.

[jnw]

Trying to read between the lines of Zelensky's videos.... they're in trouble. Big trouble. If Ukraine is going to stand, the world is going to have to take more direct action. Problem is, if the world takes more direct action, Putin may well use nukes. There is no win here, at least short term. Long term, there's no way Russia can hold Ukraine. But that doesn't mean they can't do immense damage.

He won't use nukes.  As soon as he presses the button Russia is history along with the rest of mankind.  I wish we'd bomb his 40 mile mile convoy, with non-nuclear weapons of course.

[Sailor Sam]

Trying to read between the lines of Zelensky's videos.... they're in trouble. Big trouble. If Ukraine is going to stand, the world is going to have to take more direct action. Problem is, if the world takes more direct action, Putin may well use nukes. There is no win here, at least short term. Long term, there's no way Russia can hold Ukraine. But that doesn't mean they can't do immense damage.

He won't use nukes.  As soon as he presses the button Russia is history along with the rest of mankind.  I wish we'd bomb his 40 mile mile convoy, with non-nuclear weapons of course.

Personally, I struggle to believe that Putin actually believes in Mutually Assured Destruction. He's got the got the nuclear world firmly by the tail. Sure, any one of the nuclear countries could retaliate if he detonates one single nuclear bomb...but will we? I doubt it, and it only took 2 bombs to end the pacific war.

By "we," do you mean America, or just anyone who could bomb the convoy should?

[former player]

Trying to read between the lines of Zelensky's videos.... they're in trouble. Big trouble. If Ukraine is going to stand, the world is going to have to take more direct action. Problem is, if the world takes more direct action, Putin may well use nukes. There is no win here, at least short term. Long term, there's no way Russia can hold Ukraine. But that doesn't mean they can't do immense damage.

He won't use nukes.  As soon as he presses the button Russia is history along with the rest of mankind.  I wish we'd bomb his 40 mile mile convoy, with non-nuclear weapons of course.

I'd rather "we" didn't do anything to precipitate WWIII, thanks. It may be coming anyway but later is better than sooner and the destruction of Ukraine is looking pretty inescapable now whatever we do.

[sonofsven]

Trying to read between the lines of Zelensky's videos.... they're in trouble. Big trouble. If Ukraine is going to stand, the world is going to have to take more direct action. Problem is, if the world takes more direct action, Putin may well use nukes. There is no win here, at least short term. Long term, there's no way Russia can hold Ukraine. But that doesn't mean they can't do immense damage.

He won't use nukes.  As soon as he presses the button Russia is history along with the rest of mankind.  I wish we'd bomb his 40 mile mile convoy, with non-nuclear weapons of course.

Personally, I struggle to believe that Putin actually believes in Mutually Assured Destruction. He's got the got the nuclear world firmly by the tail. Sure, any one of the nuclear countries could retaliate if he detonates one single nuclear bomb...but will we? I doubt it, and it only took 2 bombs to end the pacific war.

By "we," do you mean America, or just anyone who could bomb the convoy should?

That's the thing with MAD, though; it doesn't matter if one "believes" it or not, the result is the same. I don't believe Putin to be a madman bent on world destruction. I do believe Putin would use the threat of nuclear strikes to achieve his aims. Why wouldn't he when the bulk of his power relies on force, intimidation, and the threat of force?

[Nate79]

It's too bad a few B2 bombers can't accidentally open their bay doors along a certain road into Kyiv.  Perhaps rent them to Ukraine for 1 dollar a day for a few days.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[zolotiyeruki]

It'd interesting to game the scenario out.  What would happen if the US (or another NATO or EU nation) took out the convoy?

Well, it would take a lot of pressure off the Ukrainians, potentially freeing up many of their forces to attack the Russians in other areas.  It'd be a devastating logistical blow ("Generals talk logistics") which would likely cripple the entire offensive in the North.

How might Putin respond? 

1) Well, he could go tit-for-tat, and start shooting SAMs at the various ISR and refuelling aircraft that are circling just west of Ukraine, or he could lob some missiles at NATO military bases near Ukraine, but that's an escalation.  Attacking a defenseless aircraft in the airspace over a NATO nation would provide all the excuse necessary for NATO to open the floodgates.
2) Ramp up the attacks on civilians in Ukraine? That wouldn't accomplish much.
3) Perhaps he could declare war on NATO?  Well, see #1 above.
4) Start using nukes?  See #1.

This all assumes, of course, that Putin can pin this on NATO or the EU.  Given the Russian military's performance to date, I imagine the only argument they'd have is "well, Ukraine couldn't have pulled it off."

I don't know which way this war will go in the short term, given the status quo.  Without the international sanctions, I think Ukraine would lose--Russia could just keep feeding men and materiel into the war, and attrit them out.  With the sanctions in place, it's a matter of timing--can the Ukrainians hold out long enough that the sanctions will hurt enough that Putin is forced to withdraw?

Personally, I would love to see a volley of Tomahawk cruise missiles loaded with cluster munitions run right up the length of that convoy.  Or maybe, instead of cluster bombs, drop leaflets: "This could have been a tiny bomb......turn around and go home before the next wave of missiles arrives."

[Vashy]

I honestly believe the next steps are:

1) Massive counter-offensive of social media/trying to turn the narrative and try to discredit Ukraine's efforts (I'm already seeing the first shimmers of that - it depends whether it'll get any credence outside crazed US evangelicals/QAnons/Trumpskis)
2) Groznyfication of Kyiv and other cities (wider use of thermobaric, so-called "vacuum" bombs and massive artillery strikes on civilian infrastructure, cutting off utilities etc)
3) Cutting off internet and spreading fake news (such as that Ukraine has "surrendered")
4) Starvation of the population
5) Continued hunt of the president and his wife/children (this has been ongoing from the start) to kill them

[pecunia]

That video that was posted explaining why Putin is fighting, made me realize that he is doing the John D. Rockefeller thing.  Ukraine has undeveloped oil deposits.  They pose a potential competition to the main source of revenue for Russia.  He doesn't want the competition.  He doesn't care if he kills Ukrainian babies or 18 year old Russian boys.  Those oil deposits in the Ukraine are black gold.  Throughout history most wars have been fought over riches.  All the people are just obstacles in his path to protecting his wealth and enhancing it.

He didn't care about Nazis attacking stranded Russians.  It was all just a smokescreen to give him an excuse to go after Ukrainian gas and oil.

So many people have been killed in all the oil wars and this is one more.

Only the Russian people can save Ukraine now.  Let's hope they do the right thing.

[zolotiyeruki]

That video that was posted explaining why Putin is fighting, made me realize that he is doing the John D. Rockefeller thing.  Ukraine has undeveloped oil deposits.  They pose a potential competition to the main source of revenue for Russia.  He doesn't want the competition.  He doesn't care if he kills Ukrainian babies or 18 year old Russian boys.  Those oil deposits in the Ukraine are black gold.  Throughout history most wars have been fought over riches.  All the people are just obstacles in his path to protecting his wealth and enhancing it.

He didn't care about Nazis attacking stranded Russians.  It was all just a smokescreen to give him an excuse to go after Ukrainian gas and oil.

So many people have been killed in all the oil wars and this is one more.

Only the Russian people can save Ukraine now.  Let's hope they do the right thing.

If it were just a matter of Russia and Ukraine, I would agree.  But given the stream of weapons going into the country, and the massive sanctions, I have to wonder if getting those oil and gas deposits (which will take years to develop) are worth the years of crushing sanctions, frozen assets, and military quagmire.

[jnw]

I honestly believe the next steps are:

1) Massive counter-offensive of social media/trying to turn the narrative and try to discredit Ukraine's efforts (I'm already seeing the first shimmers of that - it depends whether it'll get any credence outside crazed US evangelicals/QAnons/Trumpskis)

Fox News has already tried this.  Tucker Carlson sticking up for Putin and Trump praising him.  Don't think it worked.  We all hate Putin now. 

[YttriumNitrate]

If it were just a matter of Russia and Ukraine, I would agree.  But given the stream of weapons going into the country, and the massive sanctions, I have to wonder if getting those oil and gas deposits (which will take years to develop) are worth the years of crushing sanctions, frozen assets, and military quagmire.

Haven't most (if not all) of the sanctions so far specifically avoided Russia's energy sector?

[former player]

That video that was posted explaining why Putin is fighting, made me realize that he is doing the John D. Rockefeller thing.  Ukraine has undeveloped oil deposits.  They pose a potential competition to the main source of revenue for Russia.  He doesn't want the competition.  He doesn't care if he kills Ukrainian babies or 18 year old Russian boys.  Those oil deposits in the Ukraine are black gold.  Throughout history most wars have been fought over riches.  All the people are just obstacles in his path to protecting his wealth and enhancing it.

He didn't care about Nazis attacking stranded Russians.  It was all just a smokescreen to give him an excuse to go after Ukrainian gas and oil.

So many people have been killed in all the oil wars and this is one more.

Only the Russian people can save Ukraine now.  Let's hope they do the right thing.

If it were just a matter of Russia and Ukraine, I would agree.  But given the stream of weapons going into the country, and the massive sanctions, I have to wonder if getting those oil and gas deposits (which will take years to develop) are worth the years of crushing sanctions, frozen assets, and military quagmire.

Also, the price rises and political instability will also fast-forward the move away from gas and oil to renewables - the EU is already committed to net zero by 2050 so the nearest market is going to be an ever-decreasing one.  Chances of him getting the investment back are not looking promising.

In the near term expect the gas tankers to trek back and forth across the Atlantic in place of the Russian pipelines.

[Sailor Sam]

Trying to read between the lines of Zelensky's videos.... they're in trouble. Big trouble. If Ukraine is going to stand, the world is going to have to take more direct action. Problem is, if the world takes more direct action, Putin may well use nukes. There is no win here, at least short term. Long term, there's no way Russia can hold Ukraine. But that doesn't mean they can't do immense damage.

He won't use nukes.  As soon as he presses the button Russia is history along with the rest of mankind.  I wish we'd bomb his 40 mile mile convoy, with non-nuclear weapons of course.

Personally, I struggle to believe that Putin actually believes in Mutually Assured Destruction. He's got the got the nuclear world firmly by the tail. Sure, any one of the nuclear countries could retaliate if he detonates one single nuclear bomb...but will we? I doubt it, and it only took 2 bombs to end the pacific war.

By "we," do you mean America, or just anyone who could bomb the convoy should?

That's the thing with MAD, though; it doesn't matter if one "believes" it or not, the result is the same. I don't believe Putin to be a madman bent on world destruction. I do believe Putin would use the threat of nuclear strikes to achieve his aims. Why wouldn't he when the bulk of his power relies on force, intimidation, and the threat of force?

I think we’re agreeing, right? I got a little lost in your post, or maybe I wasn’t very clear in mine. My original main point is my suspicion than Putin believes that he could get away with one fission bomb, without triggering MAD-ish retaliation.

Of course, I can’t know Putin’s mind for sure, and god why would I want to. Just my armchair philosophizing. 

[PeteD01]

This is a translation of an article celebrating the victory in Ukraine that never happened. Damn fools went ahead and published it accidentally.
Worth reading for sure - any more doubts that the Russian leadership is delusional and that Putin needs to be removed from power?

https://tinyurl.com/527w2djr

[Vashy]

I honestly believe the next steps are:

1) Massive counter-offensive of social media/trying to turn the narrative and try to discredit Ukraine's efforts (I'm already seeing the first shimmers of that - it depends whether it'll get any credence outside crazed US evangelicals/QAnons/Trumpskis)

Fox News has already tried this.  Tucker Carlson sticking up for Putin and Trump praising him.  Don't think it worked.  We all hate Putin now.

Well, good, but there could be other audiences for the propaganda.

[pecunia]

A commenter above noted the move to "renewables."  It never seems to be acknowledged that "renewables" do not deliver power 100 percent of the time.  They are backed up by natural gas.  With "renewables," Putin will still sell a buttload of gas to Europe.  He can charge more and deliver less.  He sells a lot of gas to Germany where there has been a strong move to "renewables."

The gas industry fully supports the move to "renewables.'

Fertilizer is also made from natural gas.

[former player]

A commenter above noted the move to "renewables."  It never seems to be acknowledged that "renewables" do not deliver power 100 percent of the time.  They are backed up by natural gas.  With "renewables," Putin will still sell a buttload of gas to Europe.  He can charge more and deliver less.  He sells a lot of gas to Germany where there has been a strong move to "renewables."

The gas industry fully supports the move to "renewables.'

Fertilizer is also made from natural gas.

Partly true (not true of hydro electric, for instance), but gas does not have to come down a pipeline from Russia, it is already coming to Europe in tankers from the Gulf and North America.  Some of us also have nuclear power.

[Watchmaker]

A commenter above noted the move to "renewables."  It never seems to be acknowledged that "renewables" do not deliver power 100 percent of the time.  They are backed up by natural gas.

There are a lot of alternatives to natural gas' role as a wind/solar backstop: biogas, batteries, flexible nuclear, hydro pumping, compressed air, smart grids for distribution, etc. Not saying everything is solved, but we can make those investments if we want to get away from natural gas.

[Vashy]

A commenter above noted the move to "renewables."  It never seems to be acknowledged that "renewables" do not deliver power 100 percent of the time.  They are backed up by natural gas.  With "renewables," Putin will still sell a buttload of gas to Europe.  He can charge more and deliver less.  He sells a lot of gas to Germany where there has been a strong move to "renewables."

The gas industry fully supports the move to "renewables.'

Fertilizer is also made from natural gas.

That's why these concept include swing capacity and large battery systems. Also, Germany has earmarked A LOT of money for switching part of its gas pipelines to hydrogen (even "green hydro"). It's technically doable. There's also French nuclear reactors just across the border, and Scandi and North Sea and US gas.

[LennStar]

Gas is mainly used for heating in Germany. Electricity is secondary and only that big because there are still unsufficient storage/distribution capacities. You know, NIMBYs, old energy companies lobbying and so on.


Can anybody confirm that tweet?

Please take note of how dramatically Twitter has changed since the freezing of Russian assets. Suddenly all those anti-Biden “American patriots” have disappeared.

[sonofsven]

Trying to read between the lines of Zelensky's videos.... they're in trouble. Big trouble. If Ukraine is going to stand, the world is going to have to take more direct action. Problem is, if the world takes more direct action, Putin may well use nukes. There is no win here, at least short term. Long term, there's no way Russia can hold Ukraine. But that doesn't mean they can't do immense damage.

He won't use nukes.  As soon as he presses the button Russia is history along with the rest of mankind.  I wish we'd bomb his 40 mile mile convoy, with non-nuclear weapons of course.

Personally, I struggle to believe that Putin actually believes in Mutually Assured Destruction. He's got the got the nuclear world firmly by the tail. Sure, any one of the nuclear countries could retaliate if he detonates one single nuclear bomb...but will we? I doubt it, and it only took 2 bombs to end the pacific war.

By "we," do you mean America, or just anyone who could bomb the convoy should?

That's the thing with MAD, though; it doesn't matter if one "believes" it or not, the result is the same. I don't believe Putin to be a madman bent on world destruction. I do believe Putin would use the threat of nuclear strikes to achieve his aims. Why wouldn't he when the bulk of his power relies on force, intimidation, and the threat of force?

I think we’re agreeing, right? I got a little lost in your post, or maybe I wasn’t very clear in mine. My original main point is my suspicion than Putin believes that he could get away with one fission bomb, without triggering MAD-ish retaliation.

Of course, I can’t know Putin’s mind for sure, and god why would I want to. Just my armchair philosophizing.

Yes, mainly agreeing. Just pushing the point the Putin will make ANY threat and the threat of nukes is a powerful one, so of course he will use this threat, especially as this threat alone is seen as "over the line" to the rest of the world. As a negotiation tactic it makes sense to start from this position.
Putin is crazy like a fox. So far he's succeded in persuading Germany to increase it's defense budget and Finland to consider NATO membership. Suddenly Europe is talking of arming itself to protect from Russian expansion and aggression and building LNG  import plants to free themselves from Russian control.
How he believes this helps Russia, I have no idea. Russia has traditionally relied on creating chaos, such as: helping to facilitate the rise of Nazi Germany then turning against them. Helping the allies to destroy the Nazis then turning against the Allies.
When Russian troops fought in Syria they fought against an already defeated "enemy", and they leveled towns and villages to rubble in the process. Will the West stand by if he tries this in Ukraine? Doubtful. Does he think the West will do nothing? Based on his previous excursions? Maybe.
How much of this is because of domestic politics? Whenever Putin had needed a win domestically he's attacked an ex Soviet rebuplic.
I really don't know.

[PDXTabs]

Trying to read between the lines of Zelensky's videos.... they're in trouble. Big trouble. If Ukraine is going to stand, the world is going to have to take more direct action. Problem is, if the world takes more direct action, Putin may well use nukes. There is no win here, at least short term. Long term, there's no way Russia can hold Ukraine. But that doesn't mean they can't do immense damage.

He won't use nukes.  As soon as he presses the button Russia is history along with the rest of mankind.  I wish we'd bomb his 40 mile mile convoy, with non-nuclear weapons of course.

I'd rather "we" didn't do anything to precipitate WWIII, thanks. It may be coming anyway but later is better than sooner and the destruction of Ukraine is looking pretty inescapable now whatever we do.

I know this is the narrative it the west, but I'm not sure I buy it. The USSR sent a ton of pilots and planes to North Korea and both sides covered it up to avoid escalation. With that said I don't see a NATO country coming to help (or a non-NATO one).

[oldladystache]

My concern - At some point, maybe soon, Putin will realize that he's in big trouble, and will consider suicide. And if he's gonna die anyway why not go ahead and start the nuclear bombs going and take the rest of us with him?

[PeteD01]

The Antiamericanism on the radical right is really getting out of hand.

Is it from the radicals though?  Almost seems to be coming from the mainstream/establishment right.

The mainstream/establishment right doesn´t say much these days, so most of the noise is coming from the radicals. It is true though that some mainstream, or previously mainstream, GOP characters have been trying to score points by stirring up antiamerican sentiments within their constituency.
We will see how they are going to deal with the developing situation. It is very clear that talk about nuclear weapons by a dictator, in the context of an invasion of a neighboring nation, changes the calculus immensely.
First we will probably see economic sanctions and measures against Russia, that will not show any restraint regarding the effects on the Russian population, in order to foment internal unrest in Russia.
Once this happens we will see more clearly who is on the Russian payroll and who is not. It is not that the Russian services let their agents off the hook when things get hot and they would like to take cover - to the contrary, they do not care and will burn them if it is in Russia´s interest.

Only five days after ^^^, the most severe economic sanctions (or what may be better characterized as economic attacks) ever imposed on a near peer nation are in place and the objectives are the precipitation of a banking crisis and the collapse of the Russian economy.
This is unprecedented and constitutes a major challenge to the Russian leadership. Under the current circumstances, it is difficult to see how the Russian leadership could interepret this other than an act of war.
For the West, the first order of business is to contain the conflict in the region.
Unfortunately, the interests of the West and Ukraine are not perfectly aligned when it comes to military action in Ukraine. Any direct action in Ukraine would not necessarily help the objective of containing the conflict while the Russian economy implodes.
That is not to say that the calculus could not change.

[PDXTabs]

My concern - At some point, maybe soon, Putin will realize that he's in big trouble, and will consider suicide. And if he's gonna die anyway why not go ahead and start the nuclear bombs going and take the rest of us with him?

That seems unlikely, but I suppose possible. He has kids. His generals have kids. The dudes with the keys don't want to die. His oligarch buddies have yachts to sail.

[Michael in ABQ]

Across Europe about 40% of their energy is coming from Russia with some countries much more dependent than others. The great thing about pipelines is they're very cheap and efficient to move large volumes of gas and oil. The downside is they are inflexible. There's plenty of oil and natural gas in North Africa and the Middle East but building new pipelines takes years. Shipping via tankers is more flexible but it's more expensive and there's still only so much capacity in Europe to receive that energy. LNG tankers have been flocking to Europe for months due to higher prices but there's only so much LNG on the spot market and so many tankers to ship it. It simply can't replace pipelines in the short-term.

Half the natural gas going to Germany is used for industry i.e., making nitrogen-based fertilizer with natural gas as a feedstock or other manufacturing processes. The other half is used for heating. About 40% of that gas is come from Russia with the rest coming through other sources (North Sea, US, Africa, Middle East). However, Germany doesn't have any facilities for receiving shipments of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) - though they've announced plans to build two which will take months or years. In the meantime, they've been shutting down all their nuclear power plants - making them even more dependent on Russian energy (coal and oil as well as natural gas).


All this boils down to Russia has Europe over a barrel and both sides know it. The sanctions targeting Russia are excluding energy for the most part which is 30% of Russian GDP. If Europe stopped buying Russian energy that would really hurt. It's not like Russia can just shift to selling to China and India - the infrastructure isn't there and it would take years to build. But this would hurt Europe almost as much as Russia so any sanctions are going to continue carving out energy and thus, not really produce the desired effect of getting Russia to stop their invasion.

[Michael in ABQ]

Imagining NATO forces flying over that 40 mile long convoy of Russian military, and bombing the heck out of it all.   Putin makes me sick.

I used to be on the logistics side of things in the Army... seeing a 40 mile long convoy moving so slowly, and placed together so densely, make them a prime target for an attack like the one you're fantasizing about... sadly Ukraine doesn't have the assets to accomplish this and thus there the convoy sits... almost taunting the US the do something about it.

A 40-mile-long convoy sounds more like a giant traffic jam. It's winter in Ukraine so those vehicles are going to be idling to keep warm. Maybe not all the time but at least intermittently. Every hour those trucks, APCs, and tanks sit there they're burning diesel and need to be refueled. I wouldn't want to be the driver who runs out of fuel in the middle of a convoy - or the person responsible for refueling hundreds or thousands of slowly moving vehicles jamming a single road.

Incidentally, targeting the refueling operations would be a smart move for Ukraine. They've shown the ability to hit airfields in Russia with short-range ballistic missiles and their Turkish-provided TB2 drones seem to be blowing up Russian anti-aircraft systems with ease. I'm sure they could target a refueling operation for that convoy and have a lot of success.

[GuitarStv]

This all assumes, of course, that Putin can pin this on NATO or the EU.  Given the Russian military's performance to date, I imagine the only argument they'd have is "well, Ukraine couldn't have pulled it off."

Since when does Putin need real evidence to do something?  He'll just release some faked videos to justify any action taken.  It's what he has unflinchingly done so far.

[jnw]

This all assumes, of course, that Putin can pin this on NATO or the EU.  Given the Russian military's performance to date, I imagine the only argument they'd have is "well, Ukraine couldn't have pulled it off."

Since when does Putin need real evidence to do something?  He'll just release some faked videos to justify any action taken.  It's what he has unflinchingly done so far.

"Alternative fact". LOL.  Aleksander Dugin.  The Russian philosopher who Steven Bannon praised and Kelly Ann Conway quoted.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGunRKWtWBs

[Travis]

A 40-mile-long convoy sounds more like a giant traffic jam. It's winter in Ukraine so those vehicles are going to be idling to keep warm. Maybe not all the time but at least intermittently. Every hour those trucks, APCs, and tanks sit there they're burning diesel and need to be refueled. I wouldn't want to be the driver who runs out of fuel in the middle of a convoy - or the person responsible for refueling hundreds or thousands of slowly moving vehicles jamming a single road.

Incidentally, targeting the refueling operations would be a smart move for Ukraine. They've shown the ability to hit airfields in Russia with short-range ballistic missiles and their Turkish-provided TB2 drones seem to be blowing up Russian anti-aircraft systems with ease. I'm sure they could target a refueling operation for that convoy and have a lot of success.

Hopefully it's the vehicles at the front of the convoy that are tapped out. And it appears that the drone strikes have been going after fuel trucks specifically. Going back to Soviet times, their army never properly invested in logistics. In good times they don't have enough to sustain a drive of more than 100 miles before everyone has to stop for a few days.

[PeteD01]

A 40-mile-long convoy sounds more like a giant traffic jam. It's winter in Ukraine so those vehicles are going to be idling to keep warm. Maybe not all the time but at least intermittently. Every hour those trucks, APCs, and tanks sit there they're burning diesel and need to be refueled. I wouldn't want to be the driver who runs out of fuel in the middle of a convoy - or the person responsible for refueling hundreds or thousands of slowly moving vehicles jamming a single road.

Incidentally, targeting the refueling operations would be a smart move for Ukraine. They've shown the ability to hit airfields in Russia with short-range ballistic missiles and their Turkish-provided TB2 drones seem to be blowing up Russian anti-aircraft systems with ease. I'm sure they could target a refueling operation for that convoy and have a lot of success.

Hopefully it's the vehicles at the front of the convoy that are tapped out. And it appears that the drone strikes have been going after fuel trucks specifically. Going back to Soviet times, their army never properly invested in logistics. In good times they don't have enough to sustain a drive of more than 100 miles before everyone has to stop for a few days.

And just wait when those Russian soldiers realize that not only fuel and food are in short supply but that there is no hope for any rescue operation for them.

[Just Joe]

Time to go after Russia's oil and the remainder of their banking system. If Europe needs to ration or raise prices, if we in North America need to do the same - so be it.

[PeteD01]

...

A 40-mile-long convoy sounds more like a giant traffic jam. It's winter in Ukraine so those vehicles are going to be idling to keep warm. Maybe not all the time but at least intermittently. Every hour those trucks, APCs, and tanks sit there they're burning diesel and need to be refueled. I wouldn't want to be the driver who runs out of fuel in the middle of a convoy - or the person responsible for refueling hundreds or thousands of slowly moving vehicles jamming a single road.

...

But as long as Putin can be fooled into believing that he retains the initiative he will likely continue to pour assets into the theater and getting them stuck there.

[PDXTabs]

Time to go after Russia's oil and the remainder of their banking system. If Europe needs to ration or raise prices, if we in North America need to do the same - so be it.

I already wrote all of my federal elected officials (President, Senators, House Rep, Speaker of the House, Senate majority leader) and asked for this. You should too. I should write them again tonight and ask them when we get "the most severe sanctions that have ever been imposed". As of right now Russian oil is not on that list and US oil companies are still free to operate in Russia (Exxon is). This is presumably because of inflation fears. This is not "the most severe sanctions that have ever been imposed" because this stops short of the Iran sanctions.

[pecunia]

So here's another approach that I am sure won't be taken seriously.  It is an approach that all of you are familiar with.  I believe it is the approach you folks would take if the tables were flipped.

It has been suggested that Putin commit suicide.  I don't think he will do that, but there's another approach.  This guy is estimated to be worth 200 billion dollars.  So, if he could be convinced to retire on the 4 percent rule, the guy could buy his own island and far from snowy Russia.  To top it off he is 69 years old.  It wouldn't even be early retirement.  I am sure the Russians would provide him with health care too.

The world would be at peace and Putin could go fishing.  It is a real win win.