Hi All, I have been reviewing a lot of blogs, books and experts in the Financial field and many of them have the same advice about the asset allocation of a portfolio. In summary, about 80% Stocks (Growth) & 20% Cash (Defensive), with the understanding that past trends over 10 year periods suggest there are about 3-4 years of a depressed market, followed by about 6 years of generally good returns. I have also looked into 10 years of data across the Vanguard Managed Fund Portfolios and without question over a 10 year time frame the VAS has generated about 30-40% better distribution returns compared to Balanced, International and High Growth funds. For the record, I am mainly focused on distributions not necessarily growth. In addition, the VAS does provide a good tax benefit due to franking credits.
Originally we put all our eggs into one basket an put all we had into into the Vanguard Balanced Fund Portfolio as we considered it be very safe (later we invested in the VAS). This was at a time that we really didn’t know very much at all about the world of shares etc. So it gave us some comfort. Over 2 years down the track and we have become very comfortable with the stock market and anticipate several highs and lows in our lifetime and have come to an understanding that actually the real risk maybe in being too conservative, meaning reduced growth and distributions if we remain predominately within the Balanced Portfolio.
Below is a breakdown of what we have currently and please keep in mind that we hope to FIRE within 1-2 years (current ages 47 /44) – however may continue to work part-time a few more years, meaning that we can let the distributions reinvest into VAS for hopefully the next 5 years.
Balanced Fund = $1.02M (20% VAS+ 30% International Shares = 50% Growth) + (35% Bonds + 15% Cash = 50% Defensive )
VAS = $225k
Over the next year we intend to top up VAS with another $150 – 200k (ambitious target). This would mean our asset allocation would be approx. 33% Defensive + 67% Growth (VAS would make up about 47% across the both portfolios)
In order to increase the Growth/VAS asset allocation of the Portfolio, I have been contemplating selling down about $300k out of the Balanced fund (I know there will be CGT impacts but intend to sell over 1-3 years to limit impacts) to top up the our VAS in order to help future proof the portfolio. The thinking is - better to do this now early into our portfolio / asset building strategy, rather than years into the future, if at all. The additional $300k would see the portfolio asset allocation to:
25% Defensive/ 75% Growth (VAS making up 60%)
As Vanguard control the VAS allocation in the Balanced fund this could change over time if they increase or decrease it, however something tells me they will leave it at about that 20%.
I am sharing my thoughts in this forum to see what people think or could advise. I am somewhat concerned about the CGT impacts of selling part of Balanced Portfolio, but think it may be short term pain for long term gain. I also have come to believe we need to drop the cash / bonds down (Defensive) to at least 30% of our portfolio asset allocation...if we are going to live until about 100 years old!
Oh and if you are thinking about our super - my partner and I have about $200k each in Balanced Portfolio in Host Plus – which is about 60% Growth/40% Defensive ( I think).
Thanks!