Hi, I’ve asked a question on the main board to get a wide perspective, but I’d love to get your thoughts on something I’m trying to work through: will next year be the best time to buy a property in Sydney? And if so, should I pause my investing to save cash to grab the opportunity?
Do you all see this as well? If there was a time to jump in, Will that be then?
I wouldn't trust me on predicting the residential property market - I've thought it was irrationally over-valued since the mid 2000s. If I keep calling a bust, I'll eventually be right!
Instead, what have I been doing:
- I begrudgingly bought a house in 2014 (Canberra) wanting to own a place to live in. I did everything I could to optimise the price and purchasing process, but at the end of the day I bought the house that I wanted to live in. The way it turned out, I ended up lucky, and its appreciated about 40% since.
- When I bought, the house represented 32% of my total assets (I had a lot of leverage/debt, particularly after the house buy!). I used the opportunity to debt-recycle fairly quickly, using the home loan to refinance margin loan debt (lower rates and lower chance of the debt being called.
- Since buying I have ended up married and started a family. The house is currently rented out while I'm overseas, but my wife and I are debating about upgrading houses when we return. We don't expect a lot of impact from COVID on this, as we are in Canberra (public sector jobs fairly secure), and we currently own two places (one house, one apartment), and selling both would be in the ballpark of the kind of places we want to buy.
Don't get your hopes up on stamp duty having a big impact. Canberra started the stamp duty/rates phase over shortly after I bought. I paid just under $30k in stamp duty in 2014. The same price house would be $23k now. So a stamp duty saving of $7k one off.
Over the same time, my rates have increased from $2300 to $4300 ($2k increase) and my land tax (currently rented out) from $4200 to $6700 ($2.5k increase). So, the increase in annual costs has been $4500. i.e. the reduction in stamp duty in my situation is equivalent to 1.5 years of the additional taxes. I don't intend to sell my house every 18 months, so for me, the change stinks. As an economist, I support it - its efficient and hard to avoid. Much better than transaction taxes or company taxes.
As to your situation, if it were me I'd not get too worked up about the timing - if the right place for you comes up, and you want to buy it to live in, do so. I'd educate myself about the markets I'm interested in - focus on figuring out what kind of place you actually want. In terms of the savings, if you genuinely expect to spend it in the next couple of years, it doesn't belong in shares.