Author Topic: Bottom is in!  (Read 14876 times)

PDXTabs

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #200 on: April 21, 2020, 03:39:05 PM »
I have no idea how long the market will keep falling, but peak-to-trough for the SP500 is 2007/8 was 17 months.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 03:41:09 PM by PDXTabs »

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #201 on: April 21, 2020, 03:48:52 PM »
Looks like the market has the momentum to fall for a few days.
I was having anxiety the 2 previous weeks when the market was going up and I would move some back in and then out to take the realized gains. At one point I had all $300k on the sidelines and when the market went up, I had nightmares of missing out.
I've been moving back little at a time as not to miss out even though I truly think the market will drop a bit more.
I have $85k of $300k back in.
If it keeps dropping I'll keep moving $10k back so if it does drop to Dow 20k I should have half in, half out. At that point I might just push the rest back into the market so I can stop my timing. LOL.

Iíll give up timing. Really this time. Not like all the other times. LOL.

moneytaichi

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #202 on: April 21, 2020, 04:27:10 PM »
Looks like the market has the momentum to fall for a few days.
I was having anxiety the 2 previous weeks when the market was going up and I would move some back in and then out to take the realized gains. At one point I had all $300k on the sidelines and when the market went up, I had nightmares of missing out.
I've been moving back little at a time as not to miss out even though I truly think the market will drop a bit more.
I have $85k of $300k back in.
If it keeps dropping I'll keep moving $10k back so if it does drop to Dow 20k I should have half in, half out. At that point I might just push the rest back into the market so I can stop my timing. LOL.
My big cash pile is sitting on the side too. I missed the buying opportunity at March 23 because I didn't have my investment rules and systems in place. Now I have put some Limited Order on VTI prices of $122 to $106. They may not be possible, but I am going to give a try.

I am still asking myself the same question when I pulled money out of stocks at the end of January: which scenario would I regret more - miss buying opportunities when the market drops, or take a chance with the understanding that the market may go up while I am waiting. Right now I am sticking with the second scenario, given the underlying dire economics do not support rising stock prices in a sustainable way. Once the pandemic is over, I will stop my timing too. LOL :) I miss my old days that I only check my networth once a month and do not care much how the market performs.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #203 on: April 21, 2020, 05:39:24 PM »
Looks like the market has the momentum to fall for a few days.
I was having anxiety the 2 previous weeks when the market was going up and I would move some back in and then out to take the realized gains. At one point I had all $300k on the sidelines and when the market went up, I had nightmares of missing out.
I've been moving back little at a time as not to miss out even though I truly think the market will drop a bit more.
I have $85k of $300k back in.
If it keeps dropping I'll keep moving $10k back so if it does drop to Dow 20k I should have half in, half out. At that point I might just push the rest back into the market so I can stop my timing. LOL.
My big cash pile is sitting on the side too. I missed the buying opportunity at March 23 because I didn't have my investment rules and systems in place. Now I have put some Limited Order on VTI prices of $122 to $106. They may not be possible, but I am going to give a try.

I am still asking myself the same question when I pulled money out of stocks at the end of January: which scenario would I regret more - miss buying opportunities when the market drops, or take a chance with the understanding that the market may go up while I am waiting. Right now I am sticking with the second scenario, given the underlying dire economics do not support rising stock prices in a sustainable way. Once the pandemic is over, I will stop my timing too. LOL :) I miss my old days that I only check my networth once a month and do not care much how the market performs.

Those rules are important. I never hit my buy-in point back in March.


Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #204 on: April 21, 2020, 05:48:22 PM »
Looks like the market has the momentum to fall for a few days.
I was having anxiety the 2 previous weeks when the market was going up and I would move some back in and then out to take the realized gains. At one point I had all $300k on the sidelines and when the market went up, I had nightmares of missing out.
I've been moving back little at a time as not to miss out even though I truly think the market will drop a bit more.
I have $85k of $300k back in.
If it keeps dropping I'll keep moving $10k back so if it does drop to Dow 20k I should have half in, half out. At that point I might just push the rest back into the market so I can stop my timing. LOL.
My big cash pile is sitting on the side too. I missed the buying opportunity at March 23 because I didn't have my investment rules and systems in place. Now I have put some Limited Order on VTI prices of $122 to $106. They may not be possible, but I am going to give a try.

I am still asking myself the same question when I pulled money out of stocks at the end of January: which scenario would I regret more - miss buying opportunities when the market drops, or take a chance with the understanding that the market may go up while I am waiting. Right now I am sticking with the second scenario, given the underlying dire economics do not support rising stock prices in a sustainable way. Once the pandemic is over, I will stop my timing too. LOL :) I miss my old days that I only check my networth once a month and do not care much how the market performs.

I think you're in the same boat as me.
I never bothered moving my portfolio around until I got lucky and pulled most of my money out on Feb 19th.
For a while I was being too greedy and too impatient.
Greedy as in I kept waiting for the market to bottom out..
Impatient as in I would get a bit of gains and then pull the money out again.
I had $35k back in at its lowest point @dow 18400 but the market went back up so much the next day and I took the gain. Should have just left it in.
I had $40k past Fri when the market went up a decent amount and I almost took the $1300 gain but I said to myself I can't go through the motion again if it went up again this Monday(it didn't. Should have sold LOL).
I can't go through the anxiety again. I'll just keep hedging my funds so I'll come out ahead no what what.

moneytaichi

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #205 on: April 22, 2020, 12:23:24 AM »
Jack0Life, it's funny that we think too much alike :-) I bought some stocks at the lower prices in March and sold them in April (because I believe the current stock rebound is caused by unfounded optimism). My portfolio has 70% in cash/MM/bond and 30% in stocks now. My target AA is reverse: 30% in cash/MM/bond and 70% in stocks. Hopefully I can return to my target AA by the year end and then set-and-forget. As I am getting back to stocks, I will NOT sell them because it's too much a hassle to start all over again every time when I sell stocks ;-)

To counter my expectation, I am telling myself that every locked gains are extra until stocks are back to Feb. 19 level because I am not worse than holding unsold stocks. If stocks are back to Feb. 19 level or even in its 90% level, I have to seriously evaluate the situation, my strategy and trade-off.

Regardless, it's a valuable experience for me to go through. I remember I was so scared in 2008 that I didn't read any financial news for 2-3 years. I thought people who bought stocks then were nuts. Now I am one of the nuts :)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #206 on: April 22, 2020, 02:12:15 AM »
Reading these posts is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I love it!

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #207 on: April 22, 2020, 10:04:38 AM »
Looks like the market has the momentum to fall for a few days.
...
At that point I might just push the rest back into the market so I can stop my timing. LOL.
For me, when the market provides a surprise, I like to figure out what went wrong in my thinking.  Yesterday oil contracts settled - anyone holding an oil futures contract when it expired had to take physical delivery of that oil.  So you saw people willing to take a loss to avoid that scenario... looks like markets expected a bleak future that has seemed more optimistic today (VTI +2% as of noon EST).

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #208 on: April 22, 2020, 01:41:50 PM »
Reading these posts is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I love it!

Care to elaborate ??

Wintergreen78

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #209 on: April 22, 2020, 10:04:02 PM »
Reading these posts is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I love it!

Care to elaborate ??

You think you can figure out when the market is going to go down before it actually does. You also think that you can figure out when the market is going to go up before it actually does. You also think you can make the decisions correctly often enough to do better than just buying and holding.

Why do you think you are capable of doing this?

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #210 on: April 22, 2020, 10:20:16 PM »
Reading these posts is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I love it!

Care to elaborate ??
You think you can figure out when the market is going to go down before it actually does. You also think that you can figure out when the market is going to go up before it actually does. You also think you can make the decisions correctly often enough to do better than just buying and holding.

Why do you think you are capable of doing this?

LOL. Where's the hostility coming from ??
Please point me to where I said any of that ??
Most of us on this forum is speculating just like everyone else.
Did you not read that I've been hedging my buy backs ?? If I knew what the bottom was why wouldn't I just wait til the bottom to dump all my funds back in.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 10:24:42 PM by Jack0Life »

Wintergreen78

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #211 on: April 22, 2020, 10:31:02 PM »
Reading these posts is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I love it!

Care to elaborate ??
You think you can figure out when the market is going to go down before it actually does. You also think that you can figure out when the market is going to go up before it actually does. You also think you can make the decisions correctly often enough to do better than just buying and holding.

Why do you think you are capable of doing this?

LOL. Where's the hostility coming from ??
Please point me to where I said any of that ??
Most of us on this forum is speculating just like everyone else.
Did you not read that I've been hedging my buy backs ?? If I knew what the bottom was why wouldn't I just wait til the bottom to dump all my funds back in.

Youíve said you sold a big portion of your portfolio, then quickly bought, then sold, then bought. Iím guessing you sold because you thought the market would go down, then bought because you thought the market would go up. Is that not the case?

So, Iíll ask the question again, why do you think you can do that successfully?

moneytaichi

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #212 on: April 22, 2020, 11:59:56 PM »
Reading these posts is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I love it!

Care to elaborate ??
You think you can figure out when the market is going to go down before it actually does. You also think that you can figure out when the market is going to go up before it actually does. You also think you can make the decisions correctly often enough to do better than just buying and holding.

Why do you think you are capable of doing this?

LOL. Where's the hostility coming from ??
Please point me to where I said any of that ??
Most of us on this forum is speculating just like everyone else.
Did you not read that I've been hedging my buy backs ?? If I knew what the bottom was why wouldn't I just wait til the bottom to dump all my funds back in.

Youíve said you sold a big portion of your portfolio, then quickly bought, then sold, then bought. Iím guessing you sold because you thought the market would go down, then bought because you thought the market would go up. Is that not the case?

So, Iíll ask the question again, why do you think you can do that successfully?
@Wintergree78, we all come from different financial background, investment philosophies, and personal history. Some of us like to be more active on investment on the amount that they feel comfortable or use it as a learning opportunity.

This thread is called "Bottom is in!", which calls for more active investors who want to exchange their views and actions. There is no needs to impose your philosophy on others, or even shame others. If I loss my shirts because of my investment decisions, it's no business for anyone else other than mine.

I have observed that FIRE community holds "passive" investment as the bible, whereas many of the preachers (i.e. FIRE bloggers) are actively buying stocks or reshaping their asset allocation right now. In a way, they are timing the market. Is that passive? I don't think so.

moneytaichi

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #213 on: April 23, 2020, 12:02:16 AM »
Looks like the market has the momentum to fall for a few days.
I was having anxiety the 2 previous weeks when the market was going up and I would move some back in and then out to take the realized gains. At one point I had all $300k on the sidelines and when the market went up, I had nightmares of missing out.
I've been moving back little at a time as not to miss out even though I truly think the market will drop a bit more.
I have $85k of $300k back in.
If it keeps dropping I'll keep moving $10k back so if it does drop to Dow 20k I should have half in, half out. At that point I might just push the rest back into the market so I can stop my timing. LOL.
My big cash pile is sitting on the side too. I missed the buying opportunity at March 23 because I didn't have my investment rules and systems in place. Now I have put some Limited Order on VTI prices of $122 to $106. They may not be possible, but I am going to give a try.

I am still asking myself the same question when I pulled money out of stocks at the end of January: which scenario would I regret more - miss buying opportunities when the market drops, or take a chance with the understanding that the market may go up while I am waiting. Right now I am sticking with the second scenario, given the underlying dire economics do not support rising stock prices in a sustainable way. Once the pandemic is over, I will stop my timing too. LOL :) I miss my old days that I only check my networth once a month and do not care much how the market performs.

Those rules are important. I never hit my buy-in point back in March.
Is it because you set your LO too low?

dividendman

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #214 on: April 23, 2020, 12:26:05 AM »
This thread is called "Bottom is in!", which calls for more active investors who want to exchange their views and actions.

I'm pretty sure this thread is not called "Bottom is in!" for that purpose. I'm pretty sure it's here to mock those views and actions, just as the Top is in thread is there to mock the same active investing viewpoint.

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #215 on: April 23, 2020, 05:37:31 PM »
Reading these posts is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I love it!

Care to elaborate ??
You think you can figure out when the market is going to go down before it actually does. You also think that you can figure out when the market is going to go up before it actually does. You also think you can make the decisions correctly often enough to do better than just buying and holding.

Why do you think you are capable of doing this?

LOL. Where's the hostility coming from ??
Please point me to where I said any of that ??
Most of us on this forum is speculating just like everyone else.
Did you not read that I've been hedging my buy backs ?? If I knew what the bottom was why wouldn't I just wait til the bottom to dump all my funds back in.

Youíve said you sold a big portion of your portfolio, then quickly bought, then sold, then bought. Iím guessing you sold because you thought the market would go down, then bought because you thought the market would go up. Is that not the case?

So, Iíll ask the question again, why do you think you can do that successfully?

Wow just wow. I suggest you read my reply again.
The reading comprehension must be off cause where did I say I can keep buying and selling successfully ??
Did I preach that I'm great at timing the market ?? NOPE. No where.
I even stated that I was too impatience and greedy which gave me anxiety so I decided to hedge to portfolio.

moneytaichi

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #216 on: April 23, 2020, 06:03:13 PM »
I found it's amusing in the forum that some "passive" investors feel they are entitled to mock and shame people who want to do more active investment. What give them the rights to do so? Every one has rights to do what they want to do with THEIR money. We may not have the same investment philosophies (I have changed mine over the years based on my financial risk tolerance), but can we be respectful for each others and not play the bully game?

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #217 on: April 23, 2020, 06:40:51 PM »
I found it's amusing in the forum that some "passive" investors feel they are entitled to mock and shame people who want to do more active investment. What give them the rights to do so? Every one has rights to do what they want to do with THEIR money. We may not have the same investment philosophies (I have changed mine over the years based on my financial risk tolerance), but can we be respectful for each others and not play the bully game?

100% AGREED.
It seems to me the "passive" investors are jumping all over anyone who they think is "market timing".
Its like let people do with whatever they want with their money.
You're right about the risk tolerance. I'm pretty sound financially so yeah I can play around the market just a little bit.
Man, you should see the hostile responses i got from just posting "what stocks are you buying". Jeezzz

dividendman

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #218 on: April 23, 2020, 09:13:38 PM »
I found it's amusing in the forum that some "passive" investors feel they are entitled to mock and shame people who want to do more active investment. What give them the rights to do so? Every one has rights to do what they want to do with THEIR money. We may not have the same investment philosophies (I have changed mine over the years based on my financial risk tolerance), but can we be respectful for each others and not play the bully game?

Yes, you have the right to do what you want with your money. No, I do not have to respect your decisions. You can choose to spend your money to hunt lions in Africa. I don't have to respect that. You can choose to spend it on a brand new gas guzzling car. You can choose it as fuel for your fireplace. These are all dumb decisions.

Just as I would mock someone who plays roulette and thinks they can pick the numbers, I will continue to mock the active individual investor. Why? Well, continuing with the roulette analogy, I suppose if you had a pretty sophisticated machine that could track down the physics of the ball, you could guess where it would land better than average. But, you don't have that. And worse, you're playing against people who have very sophisticated armies of machines and people that you are betting against.

There are many studies that show active individual investors, on average, fare much worse than their passive counterparts by buying high and selling low. So the sound advice that should be given on a personal finance forum should be to discourage people from practices that would result in poor financial outcomes.

Finally, the first post on this thread is:

Quote
The bottom is in!  Mortgage your house, leverage yourself to the hilt and buy, buy buy!

(In memorial to the Top is in Thread, R.I.P.)

I don't think that's serious advice.


Wintergreen78

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #219 on: April 24, 2020, 12:35:02 PM »
Reading these posts is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I love it!

Care to elaborate ??
You think you can figure out when the market is going to go down before it actually does. You also think that you can figure out when the market is going to go up before it actually does. You also think you can make the decisions correctly often enough to do better than just buying and holding.

Why do you think you are capable of doing this?

LOL. Where's the hostility coming from ??
Please point me to where I said any of that ??
Most of us on this forum is speculating just like everyone else.
Did you not read that I've been hedging my buy backs ?? If I knew what the bottom was why wouldn't I just wait til the bottom to dump all my funds back in.

Youíve said you sold a big portion of your portfolio, then quickly bought, then sold, then bought. Iím guessing you sold because you thought the market would go down, then bought because you thought the market would go up. Is that not the case?

So, Iíll ask the question again, why do you think you can do that successfully?

Wow just wow. I suggest you read my reply again.
The reading comprehension must be off cause where did I say I can keep buying and selling successfully ??
Did I preach that I'm great at timing the market ?? NOPE. No where.
I even stated that I was too impatience and greedy which gave me anxiety so I decided to hedge to portfolio.

So what is your goal in all this? If you donít think you can be successful, then why are you doing it?

maisymouser

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #220 on: April 27, 2020, 12:28:34 PM »

[/quote]
100% AGREED.
It seems to me the "passive" investors are jumping all over anyone who they think is "market timing".
Its like let people do with whatever they want with their money.
You're right about the risk tolerance. I'm pretty sound financially so yeah I can play around the market just a little bit.
Man, you should see the hostile responses i got from just posting "what stocks are you buying". Jeezzz
[/quote]

Sounds like a sucka consumer comment to me. Same kind of thing that someone might say if I questioned their decision to buy a $430 pair of tennis shoes. The concept of 'playing' with money is really frivolous, in my opinion, and there are better things to do with one's time (and surplus finances, should they exist).

It's also not really the nature of this forum to throw opinions out there and then be offended when someone doesn't agree.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #221 on: April 27, 2020, 12:47:00 PM »
Man, you should see the hostile responses i got from just posting "what stocks are you buying". Jeezzz
In that thread, you stated you "won't be replying anymore", but you just brought it up again, in another thread.  One person was hostile.  I think you counted my post among the "hostile responses" even though I complimented you.  For those who want to see for themselves:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/what-individual-stocks-are-you-guys-buyinglooking-to-buy/

I would point at the #2 point in the forum rules: "2. Attack an argument, not a person."
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/forum-rules/
Criticism of market timing, even if people take it personally, doesn't make it a personal attack.

dividendman

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #222 on: May 20, 2020, 11:54:16 PM »
Guys, is the bottom in or the top in? I'm confused.

The_Big_H

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #223 on: May 22, 2020, 02:36:41 AM »
Guys, is the bottom in or the top in? I'm confused.

Middle is in

Body Surfer

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #224 on: May 22, 2020, 08:25:58 AM »
the sideways market is in

vand

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #225 on: May 22, 2020, 10:38:54 AM »
Both, for the time being.

The market is having a much harder time pushing through recent toppiness around Dow 24.5k and SP 2950, but doesn't look like it's wants to massively sell off either.

I do think it's looking more vulnerable to a short term downside now more than at any point since the bottom as it has basically been 9 weeks of relief rally, the daily cycle is now very old and we are due to being a new daily cycle lower sooner rather than later.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #226 on: May 22, 2020, 01:39:16 PM »
We are up over 31% since March 23! I love sideways markets that go up 31% in 43 trading days.

At this rate the S&P 500 will more than double by the end of the year.

You canít argue with my logic. I used math.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #227 on: May 22, 2020, 02:18:39 PM »
Note each gain/loss is relative to the current stock price.

VTI from Jan 1 ($163) to Mar 31 ($111) lost -32%.
VTI from Mar 31 ($111) to now, May 22 ($149) gained +34%.
The net change from Jan 1 ($163) to now ($149) is a -9% loss.

wienerdog

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #228 on: May 29, 2020, 06:08:05 AM »
Note each gain/loss is relative to the current stock price.

VTI from Jan 1 ($163) to Mar 31 ($111) lost -32%.
VTI from Mar 31 ($111) to now, May 22 ($149) gained +34%.
The net change from Jan 1 ($163) to now ($149) is a -9% loss.

Or if you were putting $19,500 in your 401k over the first ten bi-monthly pay periods (last $1,950 dump into VTI would be today), you would be down 5%.

The_Big_H

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Re: Bottom is in!
« Reply #229 on: May 29, 2020, 08:14:23 PM »
Note each gain/loss is relative to the current stock price.

VTI from Jan 1 ($163) to Mar 31 ($111) lost -32%.
VTI from Mar 31 ($111) to now, May 22 ($149) gained +34%.
The net change from Jan 1 ($163) to now ($149) is a -9% loss.

Or if you were putting $19,500 in your 401k over the first ten bi-monthly pay periods (last $1,950 dump into VTI would be today), you would be down 5%.

Whats more important is you would own more units for the same money put in if you put it in during the 3-4 month period, I'm more interested in where the market will be in 2040, not Q2-2020.

Due to how my company works, you have to invest your 401k over the whole year to get the maximum matching, if you max out before the end of the year you miss some company match.