Australian Investing Thread

[marty998]

Vanguard tax statements are out (got mine for VAS today).

Never seen this before but I've given a $552 AMIT upwards cost base adjustment! Nice little bonus there.

Yes.  I got that too!  Not quite sure how I deal with it on my tax return, but I'm sure I'll work it out.  It's a nice problem to have...

I don't understand the excitement.  As I understand it, the adjustment to your cost base is to compensate for that fact you are going to be taxed this year on a capital gain in the fund that you did not receive a cash distribution for.

Oh? Is that how it works? Boo. I should read up on this. Thank you for correcting me there.

Well, since I'm still eating into a pile of PY capital losses, I'm not actually paying tax on those non-cash distributed gains. So it's not a total loss.

[marty998]

I am getting the heebee jeebies about this market. Since the start of the year Telstra is up over 40%. CSL 33%, BHP 36% and even Woolies is up over 25%.

Seems very very frothy and there's no real sign of it slowing down.

Perhaps earnings season will be the reality check next week when results start getting released.

Until then, enjoy the bubbly gains!

[bigchrisb]

I'm in the same boat.  Have gone quiet on the purchases, and indeed actually sold down a holding.  The holding I sold was BKI, which I have been unimpressed by - too many games by the manager including externalization of management and dilutive capital raising.  Never the less, as it got close to its NTA, I've offloaded.  Put a little into VGS, but most of it is sitting in cash.  That said, that was a $50k transaction on a roughly $3m equity portfolio, so I'm hardly switching to cash!

In the main I'll be letting things ride, letting DRPs do their job of automating re-investment.   The gains this year have been strong, but its off a pretty hard decline late last year - I put about $100k into the markets then.  When you look at it over a longer term, or in terms of valuation metrics (PE, yield etc), its pricier than it was, but not crazy expensive by historical norms.

[marty998]

I'm in the same boat.  Have gone quiet on the purchases, and indeed actually sold down a holding.  The holding I sold was BKI, which I have been unimpressed by - too many games by the manager including externalization of management and dilutive capital raising.  Never the less, as it got close to its NTA, I've offloaded.  Put a little into VGS, but most of it is sitting in cash.  That said, that was a $50k transaction on a roughly $3m equity portfolio, so I'm hardly switching to cash!

In the main I'll be letting things ride, letting DRPs do their job of automating re-investment.   The gains this year have been strong, but its off a pretty hard decline late last year - I put about $100k into the markets then.  When you look at it over a longer term, or in terms of valuation metrics (PE, yield etc), its pricier than it was, but not crazy expensive by historical norms.

Raising my eyebrows at the falls the past week, including the 1.5% today. Have cash on the sidelines waiting to go, just need to determine an entry point (probably if VAS goes down to around $80).

[mjr]

Yep, I have a few hundred k from matured term deposits that will go in when this current dip turns the corner.

[Richmond 2020]

I finally got around to selling and closing my high fee paying Managed fund and my individual stock holdings in early July. I have used a portion of the proceeds to finalise paying off my home loan, I have paid off and closed my margin loan, and put a large chunk back into Vanguard indexed funds.

Thanks to everyone who has contributed to this tread over the years as it has helped me to simplify and improve my investments greatly.

I also have some more funds I can deploy if the markets drop far enough.

Thanks.

[Ozlady]

Yep, I have a few hundred k from matured term deposits that will go in when this current dip turns the corner.

Me too:)  Too cash heavy atm:(

Had a small nibble this morning; bought VAS for one of my kids...nothing big though...

Figured his investing horizon is MUCH longer than mine...makes it easier to pull the trigger..also got in at 6% yield (incl FC) ...

But with Trump and his histrionics , wouldn't be surprised at more buying opportunities to come:)

[mjr]

But with Trump and his histrionics , wouldn't be surprised at more buying opportunities to come:)

Can we please keep the Australian Investing thread free from the Trump Derangement Syndrome that pollutes most of this forum ?

I placed 6 figure buy orders today, but it looks like Westpac Online Trading collapsed under the strain.  Someone's going to lose their job over this.

[marty998]

But with Trump and his histrionics , wouldn't be surprised at more buying opportunities to come:)

Can we please keep the Australian Investing thread free from the Trump Derangement Syndrome that pollutes most of this forum ?

I placed 6 figure buy orders today, but it looks like Westpac Online Trading collapsed under the strain.  Someone's going to lose their job over this.

I actually support Trump in what he is trying to do here. For various reasons that I am afraid to detail here for want of being locked up in a Chinese gulag.

Also bought some today, $25k of VAS. Managed to almost hit the low of the day ($81.58 buy price vs $81.52 low). Felt quite good about that little piece of market timing.

CBA 2019 results gets released tomorrow. In the absence of any further conniptions on Wall Street tonight, it will be a pointer to how the market will go on open.

[mjr]

Vanguard pre-fills are in

[chevy1956]

Vanguard pre-fills are in

Thanks for that.

[Julard]

My VGE and VAS have prefilled, but VGS isn't there - anyone else?

[chevy1956]

My VGE and VAS have prefilled, but VGS isn't there - anyone else?

It was there for me.

[MrThatsDifferent]

But with Trump and his histrionics , wouldn't be surprised at more buying opportunities to come:)

Can we please keep the Australian Investing thread free from the Trump Derangement Syndrome that pollutes most of this forum ?

I placed 6 figure buy orders today, but it looks like Westpac Online Trading collapsed under the strain.  Someone's going to lose their job over this.

I actually support Trump in what he is trying to do here. For various reasons that I am afraid to detail here for want of being locked up in a Chinese gulag.

Also bought some today, $25k of VAS. Managed to almost hit the low of the day ($81.58 buy price vs $81.52 low). Felt quite good about that little piece of market timing.

CBA 2019 results gets released tomorrow. In the absence of any further conniptions on Wall Street tonight, it will be a pointer to how the market will go on open.

Et tu, Marty?

[Richmond 2020]

But with Trump and his histrionics , wouldn't be surprised at more buying opportunities to come:)

Can we please keep the Australian Investing thread free from the Trump Derangement Syndrome that pollutes most of this forum ?

I placed 6 figure buy orders today, but it looks like Westpac Online Trading collapsed under the strain.  Someone's going to lose their job over this.

I actually support Trump in what he is trying to do here. For various reasons that I am afraid to detail here for want of being locked up in a Chinese gulag.

Also bought some today, $25k of VAS. Managed to almost hit the low of the day ($81.58 buy price vs $81.52 low). Felt quite good about that little piece of market timing.

CBA 2019 results gets released tomorrow. In the absence of any further conniptions on Wall Street tonight, it will be a pointer to how the market will go on open.

Got myself $10k of VAS as well @ $81.20.

[marty998]

But with Trump and his histrionics , wouldn't be surprised at more buying opportunities to come:)

Can we please keep the Australian Investing thread free from the Trump Derangement Syndrome that pollutes most of this forum ?

I placed 6 figure buy orders today, but it looks like Westpac Online Trading collapsed under the strain.  Someone's going to lose their job over this.

I actually support Trump in what he is trying to do here. For various reasons that I am afraid to detail here for want of being locked up in a Chinese gulag.

Also bought some today, $25k of VAS. Managed to almost hit the low of the day ($81.58 buy price vs $81.52 low). Felt quite good about that little piece of market timing.

CBA 2019 results gets released tomorrow. In the absence of any further conniptions on Wall Street tonight, it will be a pointer to how the market will go on open.

Et tu, Marty?

I presume that comment is about my comment on Trump.....

Someone needs to stand up to the autocratic regime and the market / trade abuses being perpetuated. I don't like Trump but the appeasement of the last 10 years has most certainly not worked.

Playing nice to China means that end up owning your economic ass. Or at the very least, the Port of Darwin as we've come to find out.

[superannuationfreak]

Preparing for a crash...Family Trust?
Bitcoin, Gold, Bullets and Canned Food?

Kidding, I'm not actually changing my asset allocation (which is probably on the conservative side here, and does include somewhat more cash than it did two years ago).

What I was actually thinking about was tax-related opportunities if global shares do fall more than 25% (in AUD-terms, so would probably need to be more in local currency terms since the AUD tends to crash concurrently).

Currently my wife and I have similar amounts of international equities in each name, and some cash that is mostly in the lower-earning spouse's name (today, and probably for the next decade, my wife).  If shares fall we can use at as an opportunity to move more assets into my wife's name.  I was wondering if we should instead consider a family trust and at what level of financial assets people here have found it beneficial from a tax perspective?

Superficially it sounds good.  Investment income can be streamed to my wife for the next decade or so (all going well) and then split with me if I cut back/RE after FI.  When my son is 18 some of the income can accrue to him also.

However in practice I'm not sure it's worth the expense or legislative risks (e.g. minimum tax rate proposed at last election).  My son will hit 18 after we reach preservation age so I would guess, to the extent that we are allowed to, we will be better-off shifting assets into Super to the extent possible closer to the time.  We're not early-retirement-extreme but I'm also not planning to hit the 2x $1.6m pension cap.

There's also asset protection which I don't think is an issue today.  If I ever became a director on a board I guess it would be prudent but I think getting on good boards will be challenging as the super industry consolidates, so I don't think I can expect that.  Plus our house is in joint names so a trust is probably not much protection.

Appreciate any thoughts from those who've considered it or done it themselves.

[Alchemisst]

Are there any reasons to not just buy the U.S versions e.g VTSAX and BND for example? Since the expense ratios are much lower BND for example is .035% vs .20% for the Australian version which is a big difference

[mjr]

The equities and bond markets of the US are very different to those of Australia.  Size and characteristics of the component companies.  Currencies are different.  Regulatory environments are different.

You need to have defined what international exposure and asset classes you want and then look for products accordingly.   Going off just MERs is a bit narrow and simplistic.

[Alchemisst]

That's true but if it's good enough for 99% of bogleheads it's probably good enough for us..? The U.S market is probably better and more diverse than the Australian market as well.

[deborah]

If we’re not in the US, we’re not subject to their currency fluctuations, inflation rates, CPI changes... As a result, using their investments exclusively exposes us to more risk than they are exposed to.

[Andy R]

Why not just invest everything in the US market?

[superannuationfreak]

Why not just invest everything in the US market?

Nice link, thanks.  I agree.

That said, if you're talking about marginal investments outside Super (and your Super is still much larger than these investments) then just chucking your money in IVV likely won't do any harm.

But holding the US BND doesn't make much sense to me if you're an AUD investor, since the currency fluctuations will dominate the returns of the investment.  Outside Super I just don't think there's any point holding a small amount of bonds; I'd rather (and do) hold cash in an online savings account given the yield to maturity of most high quality Australian bond funds is ~1% p.a. before fees where uBank or ING pay over 2% p.a.  Inside Super the return difference is usually much smaller (Cash is the one place retail rules over wholesale, due to bank regulation) and often the fees are lower, so if I hold bonds for potential downside protection I'll do it in Super.

Also, apologies if I killed the conversation with my crash/family trust post earlier.  I'm not predicting a crash.  For anyone wanting closure, thinking it through further and browsing through bigchrisb's threads convinced me that there isn't a compelling reason for me to use a family trust unless I'm looking at >$1m in financial assets (outside of cash and Super), or have a strong need for asset protection, and so I'd expect any case for it in my situation would be borderline at best.  Hopefully the rules will still allow me to push materially more money into Super as I get closer to being able to access it.

[Alchemisst]

The difference is small now, but the long term returns of bonds is around 7=8% looking at the vanguard index chart

[superannuationfreak]

The difference is small now, but the long term returns of bonds is around 7=8% looking at the vanguard index chart

Please read up on how bonds work. If rates drop to zero you might get one year of 7-8%. If rates don't keep dropping you'll get roughly the yield to maturity (or losses if rates rise). They may still be useful for their zero or negative correlation with equities (if that persists) but expecting more than 1 or 2% p.a. from high grade bonds over the next decade on a standalone basis is a recipe for disappointment.

[Alchemisst]

That's a prediction, I guess nobody really knows but the returns for the past 30 years have been 7-8%. You're predicting bonds will have their worst decade yet.

https://www.vanguardinvestments.com.au/adviser/adv/v/index-chart-2019.jsp

[Andy R]

That's a prediction, I guess nobody really knows but the returns for the past 30 years have been 7-8%. You're predicting bonds will have their worst decade yet.

https://www.vanguardinvestments.com.au/adviser/adv/v/index-chart-2019.jsp

I did not read the comment as saying this decade will be the worst yet, but that the return from 4 decades of interest rates coming down from 17% to 1% can not be repeated unless interest rates can continue down from 1% to negative 16% over the coming decades.

People have been saying it will turn around for close to a decade now and it has just continued even in prosperous times, and in parts of Europe there are negative interest rates, so it could be years before it turns around.

But the point is that you can not assume the historical returns from the last 40 years to be a long term indicator going forwards.

However, just because bonds have a lower expected return than equities doesn't mean they have no value. Equities mitigate the risk of not returning enough money, bonds mitigate the risk of depleting your equities in a sustained market decline/recover. They both have an important use.

[bigchrisb]

Why not just invest everything in the US market?

For anyone wanting closure, thinking it through further and browsing through bigchrisb's threads convinced me that there isn't a compelling reason for me to use a family trust unless I'm looking at >$1m in financial assets (outside of cash and Super), or have a strong need for asset protection, and so I'd expect any case for it in my situation would be borderline at best.  Hopefully the rules will still allow me to push materially more money into Super as I get closer to being able to access it.

Sounds reasonable to me.  I found the trust highly beneficial when working for a business I owned and in the accumulation stage.  However, when I did a trial draw-down for 18 months, the benefits were marginal, for a lot of extra complexity.  The CGT issues means that the money was pretty much stuck in those structures (approx. $500k in a company and $800k in a trust).   I have since started working/ running a business again, and it's beneficial again at the moment.

Based on my experience, unless you are needing the asset protection, or are intending on accumulating a long way beyond a typical stash size, a company and trust probably isn't worth the effort.  The challenge is that you may not know about your future needs ahead of time.  I have more shares outside the trust than I would like that I accumulated before starting the trust.  The CGT liability on these is large enough that I am unlikely to sell them to move them in.

I've accumulated beyond what I need for foreseeable FI, so I'm now focussed on getting money into my smsf rather than the trust.  In terms of net worth, I'm about 1/3 in my own name, 1/3 in the company/trust and 1/3 in super.
 

[marty998]

This quarter's vanguard (VAS) ETF dividend of $1.07 is enough to actually fund my expenses for a quarter. First time I've crossed that little achievement :D

[deborah]

This quarter's vanguard (VAS) ETF dividend of $1.07 is enough to actually fund my expenses for a quarter. First time I've crossed that little achievement :D

Great going Marty!!!

[marty998]

This quarter's vanguard (VAS) ETF dividend of $1.07 is enough to actually fund my expenses for a quarter. First time I've crossed that little achievement :D

Great going Marty!!!

Thankyou. Funny though, never see the cash because it all gets reinvested. So I don't actually feel like any progress is being made!

[mspym]

Woo hoo Marty!

[Little Aussie Battler]

This quarter's vanguard (VAS) ETF dividend of $1.07 is enough to actually fund my expenses for a quarter. First time I've crossed that little achievement :D

Lean fire?

[deborah]

This quarter's vanguard (VAS) ETF dividend of $1.07 is enough to actually fund my expenses for a quarter. First time I've crossed that little achievement :D

Great going Marty!!!

[bigchrisb]

Nice milestone Marty! Your earned income is fully optional this quarter!

[marty998]

Woo hoo Marty!

This quarter's vanguard (VAS) ETF dividend of $1.07 is enough to actually fund my expenses for a quarter. First time I've crossed that little achievement :D

Lean fire?

No. I have no interest in living off ~$20k a year for the rest of my life haha. I don't think that's an entirely sane choice. But if I lose my job tomorrow I could probably squeeze 20 years out of the dividends topped up with a little bit of capital selling.

Nice milestone Marty! Your earned income is fully optional this quarter!

Funny that last Friday I just qualified for long service leave at my work.

If ever I decide to leave I could take an entire quarter off and still get paid for it :D

[Ozlady]

Hi Marty

Congrats!

Sounds like you have quite a bit just from VAS alone...

May i ask:

a) how long did you take to accumulate those VAS shares?

b) is it a matter of regular dripping in and if so, how often? per month? per quarter? sporadic?

c) do you have a target number to reach? What is your domestic/international allocation ?

Asking for my daughter's investing journey (she is only 20)..but feel free to ignore if it is too personal please!  Many thanks!

[happy]

Well done Marty :)

[marty998]

Hi Marty

Congrats!

Sounds like you have quite a bit just from VAS alone...

May i ask:

a) how long did you take to accumulate those VAS shares?

b) is it a matter of regular dripping in and if so, how often? per month? per quarter? sporadic?

c) do you have a target number to reach? What is your domestic/international allocation ?

Asking for my daughter's investing journey (she is only 20)..but feel free to ignore if it is too personal please!  Many thanks!

It took a while and I made a lot of mistakes, most of them around the time of when I was your daughter's age. Back then it was 2006-07 and I was geared 50-50. Nearly wiped out by the end of 2009, I still have today $50k in capital losses carried forward from then (got up to around $80k at one point).

I bought an apartment in 2010, paid off the mortgage by 2015, cash is still sitting in offset. Probably not the smartest thing to do but interest rates were 6-7% back then, not the 3.xx% you see today. Then I started buying shares again, but I stupidly bought VHY initially. Learned another lesson pretty quickly and rolled it all into VAS.

There's been a few gifts from the parents along the way, call it an early inheritance - their super has gone gangbusters. I generally buy every time I accumulate $10k, so that is once or twice a quarter. My salary has received a few bumps up along the way, so much of the extra purchases have occurred in the last two years.

I am all Australia, I don't hold any international shares either in ETFs or in super. I see no need to take on the extra risk. If the Australian market plods along as it has done on average for most of recent history at 4% dividends, 3-4% growth and 1% franking benefits then I'm quite happy with that.

No target number as such. I figure I'll know when the time comes.

[Ozlady]

Thanks for the sharing Marty:)

So much achievement for such a young man...well done and keep plodding...

Footnote: i just bought some VAS for my kids yesterday too..could not resist:)

[mjr]

I bought VAS on Wednesday, dammit :-)  Missed it by that much.

Gottilebsen in the Australian today bad-mouthing the ASX because of banks, again.  He loves talking them down.

[marty998]

Thanks for the sharing Marty:)

So much achievement for such a young man...well done and keep plodding...

Footnote: i just bought some VAS for my kids yesterday too..could not resist:)

Cheers, it is a nice achievement :)

Bewilders me how people live close to the edge, having nothing left over after each pay fortnight. Cannot imagine why people put themselves through the stress (lot of it being self inflicted).

[lush]

....I bought an apartment in 2010, paid off the mortgage by 2015, cash is still sitting in offset. Probably not the smartest thing to do but interest rates were 6-7% back then, not the 3.xx% you see today. Then I started buying shares again, but I stupidly bought VHY initially. Learned another lesson pretty quickly and rolled it all into VAS.

Hi Marty - why was VHY a stupid? BTW good on you for keeping at it.

[Alchemisst]

Curious to know peoples allocations e.g VAF, VAS, VTS, VGS, VEU etc. I'm still trying to decide on the best allocation/ combination. Also I'm with comsec, which doesn't have the lowest fees but I have been using it for a long time so all my shares are in there and its easy to manage, is it worth changing to a lower cost brokerage?

[jk5954]

Curious to know peoples allocations e.g VAF, VAS, VTS, VGS, VEU etc. I'm still trying to decide on the best allocation/ combination. Also I'm with comsec, which doesn't have the lowest fees but I have been using it for a long time so all my shares are in there and its easy to manage, is it worth changing to a lower cost brokerage?

I myself have 100% shares with approximately 50/50 split between AU and Intl. I hold VAS for the AU in ETF's and hold my Intl shares in Super with 100% of my super in Intl shares (Through First State super which has really low fees for Intl shares)

In terms of VTS, VGS and VEU the usual split would be to hold VTS and VEU together or VGS. VTS and VEU gives a lower MER but are US Domiciled so need to fill out a W-8BEN form every so often. VGS has a higher MER but is AU Domiciled and can turn on DRP.

In terms of brokerage I started out with E Shares then when I found a cheaper broker in CMC Markets I changed to them. CMC markets had a form on their website to transfer holdings from another broker. This form was called "Transfer CHESS Holdings Form". Whichever low cost brokerage you choose to change to should have a similar form.

[mjr]

Across taxable and super I am 50/50 VAS/VTS.  I've stayed away from VEU and VGS because I don't want any money in Europe because I think it's a basket case.  Australian shares because of the home currency and franking credits.

I'm with Westpac because that's where all my banking is. I don't bother with a low cost broker, all my trades are >= $20,000 so I pay 0.11% brokerage and don't trade often.

[lush]

I am with Vanguard and have VAS making up 30% and 70% in Balanced Fund. However looking to change that to be all VAS see my case study here: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/case-studies/selling-and-switching-portfolios-for-better-cash-distribution/

[Andy R]

I am with Vanguard and have VAS making up 30% and 70% in Balanced Fund. However looking to change that to be all VAS see my case study here: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/case-studies/selling-and-switching-portfolios-for-better-cash-distribution/

So your balanced fund is

Fixed income: 50%
50% bonds

Equities: 50%
30% global equities
20% Australian equities

The decision for amount of bonds is one decision, and the decision of global equities vs Australian equities is another.

By switching to VAS you are making 2 decisions. Is this your intention?

From your post it sounds like the issue is performance which is related almost exclusively to the fixed income portion (the first decision) and not related to the second.

You could achieve the same thing by switching out from the balanced fund to the high growth fund and retain the equities portion being globally diversified, but for some reason you left out this option and decided the entirety of options were VAS or an LIC?

[lush]

I am with Vanguard and have VAS making up 30% and 70% in Balanced Fund. However looking to change that to be all VAS see my case study here: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/case-studies/selling-and-switching-portfolios-for-better-cash-distribution/

So your balanced fund is

Fixed income: 50%
50% bonds

Equities: 50%
30% global equities
20% Australian equities

The decision for amount of bonds is one decision, and the decision of global equities vs Australian equities is another.

By switching to VAS you are making 2 decisions. Is this your intention?

From your post it sounds like the issue is performance which is related almost exclusively to the fixed income portion (the first decision) and not related to the second.

You could achieve the same thing by switching out from the balanced fund to the high growth fund and retain the equities portion being globally diversified, but for some reason you left out this option and decided the entirety of options were VAS or an LIC?

Thanks Andy. Yes we are looking to make 2 decisions based on our ages. We entered the Balanced fund on mainly not understanding that what we are trying to achieve with part time work and how long we might live for - maybe another 40 odd years, then we have chosen too conservative a portfolio. So firstly we want to switch from fixed income representing 50% of our portfolio. The second was yes, which equities? Aussie or Global or both? We landed on Aussie mainly because of our confidence in the Aussie market to steadily keep growing (of course with downturns)   and yes of course because of the current tax benefits that comes with it. Having said all that, we are now looking for maybe some balance in the asset allocation for equities, and yes maybe the High Growth or Global Diversified fund are worth considering, but we would still like VAS to make up most of the portfolio -maybe a 70/30 split.

[Andy R]

We landed on Aussie mainly because of our confidence in the Aussie market to steadily keep growing (of course with downturns)   and yes of course because of the current tax benefits that comes with it. Having said all that, we are now looking for maybe some balance in the asset allocation for equities, and yes maybe the High Growth or Global Diversified fund are worth considering, but we would still like VAS to make up most of the portfolio -maybe a 70/30 split.

Regarding - your confidence in the Australian market, this is framing it such that you have less confidence in other markets. Is this based on some sort of analysis or is it just a feeling you have?

I have much more confidence in the US market. They have laws encouraging foreign investment, whereas Australia has a high company tax keeping many away. How do you think this affects the economy?

Unlike the incredibly diverse US stock market, the Australian stock market is massively concentrated with half the entire index in 2 sectors and 10 companies. If one of them takes a hit, the whole thing goes down.

You are also investing in the country where your house and job are, so in a recession, they are all going to get hit at the same time. When job losses are increasing, hopefully you have a lot of bonds because if you need to draw down from equities in an extended bear market and sustained recovery when they are down which they likely will be since they are in the same market, you will be depleting your portfolio faster and at a much higher magnitude than if you were globally diversified in your equities.

All of this is called concentration risk - everything is concentrated in one area and goes down together. It is the literal opposite of diversification.

Franking credits do give a return boost, but not as much as it appears. It is around 40-80% priced-in, which means when dividends are paid out, the share price drops not only the amount of the dividend but and additional 40-80% of the franking credit amount, so while there is a benefit, it is much less than the amount you get in your hand or calculate on paper.

The question becomes, how much are those remaining franking credits worth for the concentration risk you face.