Coronavirus Weekly Update

[Moonwaves]

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]

Moving up the ladder. Will USA take the gold medal?

I'm actually really surprised Ireland is up so high. Notwithstanding all the links with Britain and the European Union, as an island you would expect they might have been able to close the airports and ports pretty quickly to get it under control.

I haven't sought any news as to why they have been hit as hard as they have (the news seems to be dominated overwhelmingly by the US), but I am curious about this one.

Part of the reason for Ireland and Belgium having such high rates is a difference in the way they are reporting the numbers. Some countries only report those who have had a positive lab test and then died of COVID-19 as Coronavirus deaths, some include anyone with it, even if they actually died of something else (e.g heart attack); some countries only record deaths that take place in hospitals and not those who die from COVID-19 at home.
But it is also the case that some schools had half-term trips to northern Italy just before it was locked down, and a significant number of Irish people attended the Cheltenham racing festival, two factors that definitely led to an uptick in cases. Nursing and care homes are also a big contributor.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] 3 weeks ago
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] 2 weeks ago
1. Belgium [655]
2. Spain [525]
3. Italy [463]
4. UK [394]
5. France [369]
6. Netherlands [280]
7. Sweden [256]
8. Ireland [250]
9. Switzerland [201]
10. USA [188]

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Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] last week
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [768]
2. Spain [584]
3. Italy [514]
4. UK [495]
5. France [415]
6. Sweden [349]
7. Netherlands [326]
8. Ireland [303]
9. USA [258]
10. Switzerland [216]

*It looks like Sweden has overtaken Netherlands at current rate of growth may surpass France in the next couple weeks. The UK may end up in 2nd place in a couple weeks as well, very alarming rise in deaths.

**USA and Ireland continue their rise

***Ecuador (132 d/mill) is surging unbelievably, as is Brazil (62 d/mill) . Will add Canada to the concern list with 140 deaths/million. Russia's total number of cases will soon be in 2nd place to the USA, but their death rate is unbelievably low. This means they are lying (or better at medicine than the rest of the world by an order of magnitude). They could probably use those 3 doctors that fell out of windows last month.

[BECABECA]

...
Russia's total number of cases will soon be in 2nd place to the USA, but their death rate is unbelievably low. This means they are lying (or better at medicine than the rest of the world by an order of magnitude).
...

Russia is early in their outbreak, with the majority of those cases having been added in the last couple of weeks. When we were that early in our outbreak, we had more cases than other countries but our total deaths were only a fraction of theirs. There was all sorts of speculation that we had a less deadly strain or we had a younger population. Nope, we eventually caught up and surpassed everybody else. Deaths lag by a few weeks, it’s most likely as simple as that.

[JGS1980]

BECA,

If you compare early US data to current Russia data, you will see that when USA had 250K cases, it already had 30,000 deaths in early April.

Russia currently has 250K cases, and only has 2418 official deaths.

I suspect Russia's outbreak isn't early at all. They just didn't test early and hoped this would go away (sound familiar). Now they are catching up with testing so the recent run up in their cases is a reflection of just doing a lot more tests, not the actual incidence of the disease. Most of the deaths of the 1st month of their outbreak just weren't identified or counted. Nice to be a dictator in control of everything.

Just a random internet person's epidemiologic analysis,

JGS

[DarkandStormy]

The UK may end up in 2nd place in a couple weeks as well, very alarming rise in deaths.

Btw, the UK is likely *underreporting* deaths based on all cause mortality rates in excess of the most recent 5-year average.

[Dancin'Dog]

BECA,

If you compare early US data to current Russia data, you will see that when USA had 250K cases, it already had 30,000 deaths in early April.

Russia currently has 250K cases, and only has 2418 official deaths.

I suspect Russia's outbreak isn't early at all. They just didn't test early and hoped this would go away (sound familiar). Now they are catching up with testing so the recent run up in their cases is a reflection of just doing a lot more tests, not the actual incidence of the disease. Most of the deaths of the 1st month of their outbreak just weren't identified or counted. Nice to be a dictator in control of everything.

Just a random internet person's epidemiologic analysis,

JGS

Or maybe it's the better vodka and stronger genes.  ;)

[maizefolk]

The UK may end up in 2nd place in a couple weeks as well, very alarming rise in deaths.

Btw, the UK is likely *underreporting* deaths based on all cause mortality rates in excess of the most recent 5-year average.

In fairness I don't know of any country where reported coronavirus deaths are keeping up with how many deaths it looks like the virus is actually causing (based on excess all cause mortality).

[JGS1980]

BECA,

If you compare early US data to current Russia data, you will see that when USA had 250K cases, it already had 30,000 deaths in early April.

Russia currently has 250K cases, and only has 2418 official deaths.

I suspect Russia's outbreak isn't early at all. They just didn't test early and hoped this would go away (sound familiar). Now they are catching up with testing so the recent run up in their cases is a reflection of just doing a lot more tests, not the actual incidence of the disease. Most of the deaths of the 1st month of their outbreak just weren't identified or counted. Nice to be a dictator in control of everything.

Just a random internet person's epidemiologic analysis,

JGS

Or maybe it's the better vodka and stronger genes.  ;)

Well, alcohol is an excellent disinfectant! 

[DarkandStormy]

The UK may end up in 2nd place in a couple weeks as well, very alarming rise in deaths.

Btw, the UK is likely *underreporting* deaths based on all cause mortality rates in excess of the most recent 5-year average.

In fairness I don't know of any country where reported coronavirus deaths are keeping up with how many deaths it looks like the virus is actually causing (based on excess all cause mortality).

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
https://www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034

^Best looks at it I've seen so far.  Second link is UK - shows 50k "excess deaths" above 5-year running average, which is much greater than the ~30k or so reported so far.

I'm sure epidemiologists could weigh in on if "excess deaths above average" is a good replacement for "reported deaths," because the former assumes all other causes of death remain equal to the 5-year average (accidents, homicides, suicides, disease-related deaths, etc.).

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

BECA,

If you compare early US data to current Russia data, you will see that when USA had 250K cases, it already had 30,000 deaths in early April.

Russia currently has 250K cases, and only has 2418 official deaths.

I suspect Russia's outbreak isn't early at all. They just didn't test early and hoped this would go away (sound familiar). Now they are catching up with testing so the recent run up in their cases is a reflection of just doing a lot more tests, not the actual incidence of the disease. Most of the deaths of the 1st month of their outbreak just weren't identified or counted. Nice to be a dictator in control of everything.

Just a random internet person's epidemiologic analysis,

JGS

The situation in Russia is under control. My cousin reported that everyone was given masks...and they all keep their masks in their pockets just in case they need them later while cramming onto the marshrutka.

But also, comparing cases to deaths is a better measure of testing capacity than of actual cases.

[DarkandStormy]

Perhaps slightly off topic to this thread, but interesting to note that countries with leaders widely-viewed as "far right" are, uh, skyrocketing and filling up the top 5 in terms of worldwide confirmed cases.

[caffeine]

Perhaps slightly off topic to this thread, but interesting to note that countries with leaders widely-viewed as "far right" are, uh, skyrocketing and filling up the top 5 in terms of worldwide confirmed cases.

The countries you listed make up some of the most populous countries. Perhaps the population size of a country strongly correlates to the number of infections and deaths when dealing with a virus with exponential growth?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population#Sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_population

The UK was in a particular bad spot because of poor choices coupled with very few ventilators:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-ventilator/uk-has-8000-ventilators-and-another-8000-on-the-way-junior-minister-says-idUKKBN21D0VF

[DarkandStormy]

Perhaps slightly off topic to this thread, but interesting to note that countries with leaders widely-viewed as "far right" are, uh, skyrocketing and filling up the top 5 in terms of worldwide confirmed cases.

And curiously enough, the countries you listed make up some of the most populous countries. Perhaps the population size of a country strongly correlates to the number of infections and deaths when dealing with a virus with exponential growth?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population#Sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_population

The UK was in a particular bad spot because of poor choices coupled with very few ventilators:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-ventilator/uk-has-8000-ventilators-and-another-8000-on-the-way-junior-minister-says-idUKKBN21D0VF

U.S. - 3rd
Brazil - 6th
Russia - 9th
UK - 21st
Spain - 30th

So odd, then, how the deaths in Japan (11th), Germany (19th), and South Korea (27th) have remained so low relative to the others.

[stoaX]

Perhaps slightly off topic to this thread, but interesting to note that countries with leaders widely-viewed as "far right" are, uh, skyrocketing and filling up the top 5 in terms of worldwide confirmed cases.

The countries you listed make up some of the most populous countries. Perhaps the population size of a country strongly correlates to the number of infections and deaths when dealing with a virus with exponential growth?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population#Sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_population

The UK was in a particular bad spot because of poor choices coupled with very few ventilators:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-ventilator/uk-has-8000-ventilators-and-another-8000-on-the-way-junior-minister-says-idUKKBN21D0VF

Exactly.  Quoting total numbers per country is useless.  The number of cases or deaths on a per million basis, like JGS1980 has been posting above, is a better way to look at it. 

[Luke Warm]

i've been watching the worldmeter website and i'm wondering why, in the US on the daily deaths, the numbers spike then gradually decline then spike again. it's seems to be happening about every 7 days. do people die more on mondays?

[deborah]

They probably do an official count on Monday of what happened on the weekend. Cases in a lot of places are lower on Sunday...

[Moonwaves]

Yes. I think that happens a lot of places, I know they mention it here at the press briefings to remind people that there is always a bit of a dip in numbers at the weekend because not everywhere has the capacity to do full reporting on the weekend. So, often Saturday and Sunday numbers might not be reported in full until Monday or Tuesday. 

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/30/20
1. Belgium [655]
2. Spain [525]
3. Italy [463]
4. UK [394]
5. France [369]
6. Netherlands [280]
7. Sweden [256]
8. Ireland [250]
9. Switzerland [201]
10. USA [188]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 5/07/20
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 5/14/20
1. Belgium [768]
2. Spain [584]
3. Italy [514]
4. UK [495]
5. France [415]
6. Sweden [349]
7. Netherlands [326]
8. Ireland [303]
9. USA [258]
10. Switzerland [216]


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 5/21/20
1. Belgium [790]
2. Spain [596]
3. Italy [535]
4. UK [526]
5. France [431]
6. Sweden [380]
7. Netherlands [336]
8. Ireland [319]
9. USA [287]
10. Switzerland [219]

*deaths have come down dramatically in Spain, Italy, France, Netherlands -it appears things are under control there
**UK, Sweden, Ireland, and USA continue to move up
***Brazil is the epicenter of this disease outside of USA right now with over 900 deaths reported yesterday
****In the USA; New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts all have higher deaths rates than Belgium above and are over 800 deaths per million. 14 US states would make the top 10 in the above list. Ouch.

[JGS1980]

I will add that last week saw another drop in weekly new deaths in the US, which is encouraging. If you take out the NY/NJ Metro area, however, overall deaths continue to rise.

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]

[caffeine]

Frobes: 43% Of COVID-19 Deaths Are In Nursing Homes & Assisted Living Facilities Housing 0.6% Of U.S.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/#6868422d74cd

From the article:

Let that sink in: 43% of all COVID-19 deaths are taking place in facilities that house 0.62% of the U.S. population.

And 43% could be an undercount. States like New York exclude from their nursing home death tallies those who die in a hospital, even if they were originally infected in an assisted living facility. Outside of New York, more than half of all deaths from COVID-19 are of residents in long-term care facilities.

Spread shared with me. Maintained by a Journalist: Phil Kerpen
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/

Many states aren't doing well in protecting the most vulnerable.

Top 5 with Nursing Home Deaths (raw number)

State	Last Updated	Nursing Home COVID Deaths	State COVID Deaths	Nursing Home % of Death	COVID Nursing Home Death as % of 2017 Death
New York	May 25	5,980	23,488	25.50%	5.90%
New Jersey	May 25	5,755	11,144	51.60%	13.10%
Massachusetts	May 25	3,924	6,416	61.20%	10.10%
Pennsylvania	May 22	3,302	4,984	66.20%	4.30%
Connecticut	May 21	2,496	3,582	69.70%	3.60%

One of the key components to how state's are protecting the most vulnerable seems to be centered mainly on a key decision:  whether or not to force nursing homes to accept infected/recovering COVID-19 patience from hospitals. New York, New Jersey, Michigan governors forced nursing homes to accept COVID patients.

States that went on to bar hospitals from doing so, such as Florida, done very well protecting the vulnerable.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/2020 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 5/28/20
1. Belgium [810]
2. Spain [580]
3. UK [552]
4. Italy [547]
5. France [438]
6. Sweden [423]
7. Netherlands [345]
8. Ireland [331]
9. USA [309]
10. Switzerland [222]

*I find it amazing that the images of Italy's crisis 2 months ago really awakened me to the realities of this pandemic. All of a sudden, USA deaths are now past 100K, 3 times Italy's, and the UK has passed Italy in death rate overall.

[JGS1980]

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

*Brazil is now the epicenter. More cases and deaths per day than any other country (with USA a close second) over the last week. Mexico is coming up fast as well.

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave after the initial New York/CT/NJ wave subsided?

[DarkandStormy]

I see also that Sweden seems hellbent on challenging their European counterparts in deaths per capita.

[JGS1980]

BECA,

If you compare early US data to current Russia data, you will see that when USA had 250K cases, it already had 30,000 deaths in early April.

Russia currently has 250K cases, and only has 2418 official deaths.

I suspect Russia's outbreak isn't early at all. They just didn't test early and hoped this would go away (sound familiar). Now they are catching up with testing so the recent run up in their cases is a reflection of just doing a lot more tests, not the actual incidence of the disease. Most of the deaths of the 1st month of their outbreak just weren't identified or counted. Nice to be a dictator in control of everything.

Just a random internet person's epidemiologic analysis,

JGS

3 weeks later

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/st-petersburg-death-tally-casts-doubt-on-russian-coronavirus-figures

See Comrades! This not Covid pandemic, this just pneumonia, out of season!!!

[gaja]

I see also that Sweden seems hellbent on challenging their European counterparts in deaths per capita.

Sweden is a bit complex. Yes, they do have more cases and more deaths than the neighbouring countries, but they are also extremely thorough when reporting problems. They are a nation filled with pessimists. It can be extremely annoying cooperating with them, but also quite practical since you can always trust them to be upfront with any problems.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

***Brazil remains the epicenter and will likely surpass UK for #2 in total deaths soon. Mexico is still coming up fast. Russia data is pure fiction [500,000 infected but only 6500 deaths]

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353] -better!!!

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

*Brazil = Epicenter. Now #2 in deaths in the world. Has an outside chance of catching up to USA by October.  Ecuador, Peru and Chile also getting destroyed right now.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve

*** I would like to point out that deaths per week have come down for 7 straight weeks, which is great! However, if you count new cases in the last 24 hours in just California/Texas/Florida/Arizone/N Carolina, then those 5 states combined would be # 3 in the whole world [aka we have some deaths headed our way in 2-6 weeks]

[jrhampt]

I'm enjoying your analysis, JGS1980!  Nice summary/comparisons week over week.

[JGS1980]

I'm enjoying your analysis, JGS1980!  Nice summary/comparisons week over week.

Glad you find it helpful.

I'm a numbers guy, and I feel that local/regional/national news just isn't cutting it for me. Everything is about "how I should feel" as opposed to "these are the numbers, come to your own conclusions".

[DarkandStormy]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

*Brazil = Epicenter. Now #2 in deaths in the world. Has an outside chance of catching up to USA by October.  Ecuador, Peru and Chile also getting destroyed right now.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve

*** I would like to point out that deaths per week have come down for 7 straight weeks, which is great! However, if you count new cases in the last 24 hours in just California/Texas/Florida/Arizone/N Carolina, then those 5 states combined would be # 3 in the whole world [aka we have some deaths headed our way in 2-6 weeks]

6/25/26ish - USA 126,823 deaths of 492,552 worldwide = 25.7% (though, I'd note, excess mortality rates is probably more accurate at this point)

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/25 (or 26)/20
1. Belgium [840]
2. UK [637] (+16)
3. Spain [606]
4. Italy [574] (only +4)
5. Sweden [523]
6. France [456]
7. USA [383]
8. Netherlands [356] - again, almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [350]
10. Peru [266] - +46, accelerating more than Brazil
11. Brazil [259] - +37, accelerating more
12. Chile [257] - +68, the biggest mover in the top 15
13. Ecuador [246]
14. Switzerland [227] - virtually no change
15. Canada [225]

No changes to the top 15, but some movement in ranking in the 10-15 range.

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 - ~126,823 [9040] - big yikes

EDIT - I think there's something off in the death data.  Maybe some backdating.  But the U.S. certainly did not add 9k+ deaths over the last week.

[JGS1980]

I swear I was getting to it Dark/Stormy! But you beat me to it. Maybe the local trends were a bit too depressing for me to get it done on Thursday per my usual routine.

JGS

[jrhampt]

On death data for the US - I know NJ added another probable 2k ish covid deaths yesterday that got spread across the distribution on worldometers, so that could be part of the 9k increase you're seeing.

[DarkandStormy]

On death data for the US - I know NJ added another probable 2k ish covid deaths yesterday that got spread across the distribution on worldometers, so that could be part of the 9k increase you're seeing.

Yeah, the 7-day rolling average was in the ~700ish range for the past week.  So we should have seen something around 5k, not 9k.  Maybe other states did the same as well.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/202 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

***Mexico is coming up hot and will likely surpass Switzerland and Canada by next week. Argentina doing remarkably well in S. America. Switzerland will drop off list, and our neighbors to the north (Canada) are doing all right all considering. They are probably pretty glad to have closed their borders to the USA a while back.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] - we will see where this trend takes us. But we can reasonably expect more and more deaths beginning next week. Personally, I thing the rate of deaths will be on the lower side (at least to start) since alot more young people are getting Covid and being tested than 3 months ago. God help us if it gets into the older community again.

*** https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
Bottom right corner

****Philosophical Question : does the average American know how god-awful we are doing as compared to the rest of the world?

[DarkandStormy]

I used https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ which is showing ~131k US deaths.  If you used a different source than Worldometers for US deaths, then the 6/25 count would be off.

[JGS1980]

I used https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ which is showing ~131k US deaths.  If you used a different source than Worldometers for US deaths, then the 6/25 count would be off.

Ok, I've been using the Johns Hopkins model since March. I'll see if I can back date and edit above.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[DarkandStormy]

Ah, I didn't realize.  I saw you cite the deaths per capita via Worldometers and figured that's what you were using.  I believed Worldometers includes probable deaths, not sure about JHU.  And I can't figure out if VA, Military, etc. should be broken out separately or if it's being double counted.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

*Mexico joins the top 15, Switzerland drops off entirely. I don't see any other countries joining this list anytime soon.

***WTF is the US doing. 59 K new cases today will translate to a lot more deaths 3-6 weeks from today.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] - we will see where this trend takes us. But we can reasonably expect more and more deaths beginning next week. Personally, I thing the rate of deaths will be on the lower side (at least to start) since alot more young people are getting Covid and being tested than 3 months ago. God help us if it gets into the older community again.

7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?

*****This is what it looks like when hospitals get overwhelmed (i.e. We failed to flatten the curve). Scroll all the way down to the daily deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...

[JGS1980]

I would also add that Mexico, despite being #14 on the list above, already has more deaths than Italy, Spain, or France.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list


***Does anyone know why Chile and Peru has such a large bump in just one week?

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again

[Abe]

Hi, I was wondering if I could post my graph of cases and deaths per state here.

[scottish]

7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again

You mean 1K every day, don't you?

[JGS1980]

Hi, I was wondering if I could post my graph of cases and deaths per state here.
[/quote]

Sure the more the merrier.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 % --> we may be turning the corner here again soon. Hopefully I'm wrong.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.

[JGS1980]

I missed yesterday's update, as I was too busy enjoying a lovely day in a local state park! Sorry!

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 % --> No turning of corner, yet
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034] -

Again, sorry for the late posting to the 2 people who actually read these updates!!!

*****ALSO, I would like to point out that as of Noon today, 14 of the top 15 US States in new cases per day are in the South (including California) or Midwest. This is where the trends in deaths will follow.

[Hvillian]

I missed yesterday's update, as I was too busy enjoying a lovely day in a local state park! Sorry!

I can't think of a much better excuse.  Outside time should always take precedence.

Again, sorry for the late posting to the 2 people who actually read these updates!!!

We'll let it slide as long as it is done by Friday at noon.  And I am pretty sure there are many more than two of us that appreciate you compiling this data. 

[Kmp2]

I appreciate these too - but that's only 2 so far...

[deborah]

There might not be many replies, but there are 6694 views. I look at this every week, and appreciate your efforts! It’s nice that it doesn’t have many extra people commenting.