Coronavirus Weekly Update

[Dollar Slice]

The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced.

Why would it collapse in early January if it was seasonal? The weather isn't really changing then in much of the northern hemisphere - it was cold in late December, it was cold in January, and it's still cold in February.

I'd guess the difference is that people stopped traveling and gathering for those big family holidays and parties in November and December and the spread slowed down below a critical point (deceleration vs. acceleration). That plus vaccinations and lockdowns and so on have slowed it down.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced.

Why would it collapse in early January if it was seasonal? The weather isn't really changing then in much of the northern hemisphere - it was cold in late December, it was cold in January, and it's still cold in February.

I'd guess the difference is that people stopped traveling and gathering for those big family holidays and parties in November and December and the spread slowed down below a critical point (deceleration vs. acceleration). That plus vaccinations and lockdowns and so on have slowed it down.

If you average US cases over more than one week, there was no effect from the holidays that is distinguishable from the overall trajectory in cases during Q4 2020 (i.e. any peak in cases was due to reporting lag). Also, if the holiday effect was important, countries with greater restrictions or impositions on movement during the holiday period would have fared better. I don't see evidence of this with my naive view on Worldometer.

[Dollar Slice]

If you average US cases over more than one week, there was no effect from the holidays that is distinguishable from the overall trajectory in cases during Q4 2020 (i.e. any peak in cases was due to reporting lag). Also, if the holiday effect was important, countries with greater restrictions or impositions on movement during the holiday period would have fared better. I don't see evidence of this with my naive view on Worldomoter.

I only monitor my local cases carefully - there was a very clear pattern in New York. Steepening acceleration after Thanksgiving, then slowed down almost to a flat plateau with the 'corner' of the curve almost exactly two weeks after Thanksgiving. Steep acceleration after Christmas, then abruptly peaked and started dropping around January 12th. A bit more than two weeks, probably because there was more travel after Christmas and also a bunch of New Years parties. But still, the link to the holidays seems clear. There was no other reason for them to leap and plateau/drop when they did.

It's probably harder to see patterns when you are mixing states and countries since they are reporting differently with different amounts of lag and that's going to smear the data points. (And some states are doing a lousy job in general.)

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

If you average US cases over more than one week, there was no effect from the holidays that is distinguishable from the overall trajectory in cases during Q4 2020 (i.e. any peak in cases was due to reporting lag). Also, if the holiday effect was important, countries with greater restrictions or impositions on movement during the holiday period would have fared better. I don't see evidence of this with my naive view on Worldomoter.

I only monitor my local cases carefully - there was a very clear pattern in New York. Steepening acceleration after Thanksgiving, then slowed down almost to a flat plateau with the 'corner' of the curve almost exactly two weeks after Thanksgiving. Steep acceleration after Christmas, then abruptly peaked and started dropping around January 12th. A bit more than two weeks, probably because there was more travel after Christmas and also a bunch of New Years parties. But still, the link to the holidays seems clear. There was no other reason for them to leap and plateau/drop when they did.

It's probably harder to see patterns when you are mixing states and countries since they are reporting differently with different amounts of lag and that's going to smear the data points. (And some states are doing a lousy job in general.)

Overall, my point is even a 7 day average fails when people take multiple days off to celebrate a holiday. The peaks following Thanksgiving and Xmas fill in valleys during those days, suggesting most of the anomaly was due to reporting lag. When I suggest seasonal forcing, it's known coronaviruses have an earlier peak than influenza (it's not clear why from what I've been able to find).

[Paper Chaser]

The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced.

Why would it collapse in early January if it was seasonal? The weather isn't really changing then in much of the northern hemisphere - it was cold in late December, it was cold in January, and it's still cold in February.

I'd guess the difference is that people stopped traveling and gathering for those big family holidays and parties in November and December and the spread slowed down below a critical point (deceleration vs. acceleration). That plus vaccinations and lockdowns and so on have slowed it down.

If you average US cases over more than one week, there was no effect from the holidays that is distinguishable from the overall trajectory in cases during Q4 2020 (i.e. any peak in cases was due to reporting lag). Also, if the holiday effect was important, countries with greater restrictions or impositions on movement during the holiday period would have fared better. I don't see evidence of this with my naive view on Worldometer.

Hospitalization data show the same trends more smoothly because they aren't really impacted by holidays, weekends, amount of tests being performed, etc.

[waltworks]

The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced. Policies (lockdowns, masks) don't matter and (so far) vaccinations haven't mattered.

I think the simpler explanation is that we've continually underestimated the contagiousness of this virus, and a LOT more people have been exposed than we think. Vaccinations are accelerating the growth of the immune population, but you're correct that the collapse in cases started before vaccinations could have an effect.

I predict herd immunity or some reasonable approximation (ie very few cases/nigh-insignificant spread outside of small clusters) by April in the US.

-W

[JGS1980]

The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced. Policies (lockdowns, masks) don't matter and (so far) vaccinations haven't mattered.

I think the simpler explanation is that we've continually underestimated the contagiousness of this virus, and a LOT more people have been exposed than we think. Vaccinations are accelerating the growth of the immune population, but you're correct that the collapse in cases started before vaccinations could have an effect.

I predict herd immunity or some reasonable approximation (ie very few cases/nigh-insignificant spread outside of small clusters) by April in the US.

-W

Hi W,

As a PCP, there is ALWAYS a boom in upper respiratory viral syndromes after School Starts, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas and New Year's holidays, and after Spring Break. Every year.  Because people are spending more time around each other in closed environments AND because folks travel and mix their biomes during these times. Then these booms peter out as the infections run their course. The recent Covid drop in cases fit this pattern.

I think the real test will be late March and early April when Spring Break happens for college and school age kids. Hopefully enough of the vaccine will be distributed by then because I very much doubt that folks will be able to act with the restraint necessary to put the nail in the Covid coffin. It's going to be Vaccines vs Covidiots, lets see who wins out.

JGS

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

College kids spreading to other college kids is not likely to result in many deaths, unless they all travel back to meet their grandparents during or shortly after spring break.

[JGS1980]

College kids spreading to other college kids is not likely to result in many deaths, unless they all travel back to meet their grandparents during or shortly after spring break.

Hi Bloop,

A lot of the time, college kids just head home for the holidays for their week off, so yes they will spread to the older generations.

In addition, Elementary, Middle, and High school kids also get a week off, and lots of families use this week to travel.

[waltworks]

As a PCP, there is ALWAYS a boom in upper respiratory viral syndromes after School Starts, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas and New Year's holidays, and after Spring Break. Every year.  Because people are spending more time around each other in closed environments AND because folks travel and mix their biomes during these times. Then these booms peter out as the infections run their course. The recent Covid drop in cases fit this pattern.

JGS

Sure, but this "boom" started in October or November, depending on how you want to look at the data (in the US), which really doesn't fit with any of the events you're referencing (most schools that went back in person, which were very rare, started in August/September). There were some minor ups and downs from then until early January that you can attribute to holidays and such, but the trend was consistently up, up, up. Finally cases/hospitalizations and now deaths started declining *very* rapidly. It's pretty clear that's not just because Christmas is over, and it's clearly not because the weather got warmer!

We're vaccinating something like 1.5 million people a day and that number will continue to go up. Leaving out kids who constitute 1/5 of the population, and including all the built in immunity from people who have been exposed, plus the ~50 million people vaccinated... it's just really math. Covid is getting rapidly crushed.

Like I said in another thread, that doesn't mean go make out with everyone at your local Elks club, but if you want a normal fun summer, you'll be able to have one.

-W

[Longwaytogo]

As a PCP, there is ALWAYS a boom in upper respiratory viral syndromes after School Starts, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas and New Year's holidays, and after Spring Break. Every year.  Because people are spending more time around each other in closed environments AND because folks travel and mix their biomes during these times. Then these booms peter out as the infections run their course. The recent Covid drop in cases fit this pattern.

JGS

Sure, but this "boom" started in October or November, depending on how you want to look at the data (in the US), which really doesn't fit with any of the events you're referencing (most schools that went back in person, which were very rare, started in August/September). There were some minor ups and downs from then until early January that you can attribute to holidays and such, but the trend was consistently up, up, up. Finally cases/hospitalizations and now deaths started declining *very* rapidly. It's pretty clear that's not just because Christmas is over, and it's clearly not because the weather got warmer!

We're vaccinating something like 1.5 million people a day and that number will continue to go up. Leaving out kids who constitute 1/5 of the population, and including all the built in immunity from people who have been exposed, plus the ~50 million people vaccinated... it's just really math. Covid is getting rapidly crushed.

Like I said in another thread, that doesn't mean go make out with everyone at your local Elks club, but if you want a normal fun summer, you'll be able to have one.

-W

Agree!! I think Summer is going to be Awesome :)

Looking forward to it for sure. I'm hoping by late June when we head to the beach for 10 days Covid will really be dwindling/nothing.

Only time will tell but its looking better each week.

[JGS1980]

As a PCP, there is ALWAYS a boom in upper respiratory viral syndromes after School Starts, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas and New Year's holidays, and after Spring Break. Every year.  Because people are spending more time around each other in closed environments AND because folks travel and mix their biomes during these times. Then these booms peter out as the infections run their course. The recent Covid drop in cases fit this pattern.

JGS

Sure, but this "boom" started in October or November, depending on how you want to look at the data (in the US), which really doesn't fit with any of the events you're referencing (most schools that went back in person, which were very rare, started in August/September). There were some minor ups and downs from then until early January that you can attribute to holidays and such, but the trend was consistently up, up, up. Finally cases/hospitalizations and now deaths started declining *very* rapidly. It's pretty clear that's not just because Christmas is over, and it's clearly not because the weather got warmer!

We're vaccinating something like 1.5 million people a day and that number will continue to go up. Leaving out kids who constitute 1/5 of the population, and including all the built in immunity from people who have been exposed, plus the ~50 million people vaccinated... it's just really math. Covid is getting rapidly crushed.

Like I said in another thread, that doesn't mean go make out with everyone at your local Elks club, but if you want a normal fun summer, you'll be able to have one.

-W

Sure Walt, believe what you want. I won't argue with you since you know better.

[GuitarStv]

As a PCP, there is ALWAYS a boom in upper respiratory viral syndromes after School Starts, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas and New Year's holidays, and after Spring Break. Every year.  Because people are spending more time around each other in closed environments AND because folks travel and mix their biomes during these times. Then these booms peter out as the infections run their course. The recent Covid drop in cases fit this pattern.

JGS

Sure, but this "boom" started in October or November, depending on how you want to look at the data (in the US), which really doesn't fit with any of the events you're referencing (most schools that went back in person, which were very rare, started in August/September). There were some minor ups and downs from then until early January that you can attribute to holidays and such, but the trend was consistently up, up, up. Finally cases/hospitalizations and now deaths started declining *very* rapidly. It's pretty clear that's not just because Christmas is over, and it's clearly not because the weather got warmer!

We're vaccinating something like 1.5 million people a day and that number will continue to go up. Leaving out kids who constitute 1/5 of the population, and including all the built in immunity from people who have been exposed, plus the ~50 million people vaccinated... it's just really math. Covid is getting rapidly crushed.

Like I said in another thread, that doesn't mean go make out with everyone at your local Elks club, but if you want a normal fun summer, you'll be able to have one.

-W

Sure Walt, believe what you want. I won't argue with you since you know better.

Weren't you the one letting your kids play with other children at the playground last year because 'kids don't get sick or spread it' before your whole family got covid last year Walt?

[waltworks]

Weren't you the one letting your kids play with other children at the playground last year because 'kids don't get sick or spread it' before your whole family got covid last year Walt?

No, I and my wife got Covid volunteering at the local food pantry in February or March of last year (at least, that's what I assume - I was on the bus and hugging/hanging out with homeless people all day every weekend, but it's possible that we were exposed somewhere else), just as the pandemic started (and before anything had closed).

Presumably our kids (they also volunteer there) were exposed at that time, but who knows. It's hard to imagine they weren't.

Regardless, they've been at school with the rest of the kids in our community (and also playing outdoor sports/on the playground) for the entire school year and all of last summer. And you know what? Everything was fine.

-W

[waltworks]

Sure Walt, believe what you want. I won't argue with you since you know better.

Want to have a friendly bet for charity? If I win, you donate $100 to a charity of my choice, and vise versa?

I contend: we will never again see 7-day average case numbers over 60,000/day - the peak has permanently passed, though there may be minor increases day to day. The exact details of how fast case numbers are going to collapse will depend mostly on vaccine hesitancy, not capacity, so it's hard to say when we'll go under 10,000/day, but I'll guess sometime in June.

I take it you are thinking we'll see a spring break surge? That's roughly March/April since those breaks are spread out quite a bit for different schools/places, of course. Think we'll get back up over 100k cases/day (7 day average)? If so, when?

-W

[JGS1980]

Sure Walt, believe what you want. I won't argue with you since you know better.

Want to have a friendly bet for charity? If I win, you donate $100 to a charity of my choice, and vise versa?

I contend: we will never again see 7-day average case numbers over 60,000/day - the peak has permanently passed, though there may be minor increases day to day. The exact details of how fast case numbers are going to collapse will depend mostly on vaccine hesitancy, not capacity, so it's hard to say when we'll go under 10,000/day, but I'll guess sometime in June.

I take it you are thinking we'll see a spring break surge? That's roughly March/April since those breaks are spread out quite a bit for different schools/places, of course. Think we'll get back up over 100k cases/day (7 day average)? If so, when?

-W

No bet, Walt.

I'm an optimist as well, I don't think we will hit 60K to 100K cases per day anymore either UNLESS people become complacent AND we have some bad luck with different strains. Hopefully we've all learned our lesson by now. I would not at all be surprised if we have a bump in mid April to March, but hopefully the vaccines will counter that enough that we won't hit those levels of new cases.

[waltworks]

Really? You won't put up $100 on a prediction of some kind? For charity? You've already made some predictions, make 'em a little more specific and let's do it! It'll be fun, and for some kind of good cause!

-W

[JGS1980]

You like poker? Don't make bets unless you have a pretty good chance to win. Even if it's for charity [don't worry, I got that part covered anyway :)]

[geekette]

I don't know about all schools, but many colleges aren't having spring break at all.

[maizefolk]

I don't know about all schools, but many colleges aren't having spring break at all.

Yup. At my school we had a 3 week online term with mini-classes, and now that we're into the regular semester and teaching in person are pushing through without any breaks to try to minimize the opportunities students have to travel. Between that and the constant hybrid zoom/in person teaching and having the recentness of our coronavirus tests validated by guards/monitors stationed at the doors to each building... it's been interesting.

[DarkandStormy]

Dr. Fauci said the U.S. will have 600m vaccination doses (enough for the ~300m adults in this country) by July.  Of course, not all 300m will get it, what with the anti-vax movement and anti-covid vax movement (those two can overlap but there are certainly plenty of anti-covid vaxxers who aren't anti-vax in general).  So, as long as states can roll it out somewhat competently (not a given), you are likely to be able to get yours started by May-ish if you are, say, under 40/45 with no underlying conditions or an occupation that would move you up.

Good news is that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the new strains in terms of limiting the need for hospitalization and death.  There may be a "booster" required if that changes but they can change these mRNA vaccines pretty quickly to counter that if needed.

Fwiw, I have a family member in healthcare who is predicting "near herd immunity" by June.  That is to say...basically the anti-covid vaxxers are going to be very likely to have gotten (or will get) covid and develop some short-term immunity while the rest of the country is likely to get vaccinated.  Together, those groups very well could make up 70+% of the population in a few months time.

The big question mark are the variants and the vaccines are holding up very well against those.

[RetiredAt63]

Dr. Fauci said the U.S. will have 600m vaccination doses (enough for the ~300m adults in this country) by July.  Of course, not all 300m will get it, what with the anti-vax movement and anti-covid vax movement (those two can overlap but there are certainly plenty of anti-covid vaxxers who aren't anti-vax in general).  So, as long as states can roll it out somewhat competently (not a given), you are likely to be able to get yours started by May-ish if you are, say, under 40/45 with no underlying conditions or an occupation that would move you up.

Good news is that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the new strains in terms of limiting the need for hospitalization and death.  There may be a "booster" required if that changes but they can change these mRNA vaccines pretty quickly to counter that if needed.

Fwiw, I have a family member in healthcare who is predicting "near herd immunity" by June.  That is to say...basically the anti-covid vaxxers are going to be very likely to have gotten (or will get) covid and develop some short-term immunity while the rest of the country is likely to get vaccinated.  Together, those groups very well could make up 70+% of the population in a few months time.

The big question mark are the variants and the vaccines are holding up very well against those.

What is the % of under-18s in the US?  Until they are eligible for vaccination (I gather the testing has started for that age group) they are a big potential reservoir population.

[Hvillian]

What is the % of under-18s in the US?  Until they are eligible for vaccination (I gather the testing has started for that age group) they are a big potential reservoir population.

I think around 25% of the population is under 16.  According to the web "Pfizer's vaccine has been authorized for ages 16 and up. Moderna's vaccine is currently authorized for ages 18 and up. Both companies have begun clinical trials for younger kids . . . "

[JoJo]

Stats starting to look like cases levelizing, rather than continuing to decrease.  Levels just slightly higher than average rates around the US last summer.   Safe to say no spike caused from the super bowl.

[DarkandStormy]

Dr. Fauci said the U.S. will have 600m vaccination doses (enough for the ~300m adults in this country) by July.  Of course, not all 300m will get it, what with the anti-vax movement and anti-covid vax movement (those two can overlap but there are certainly plenty of anti-covid vaxxers who aren't anti-vax in general).  So, as long as states can roll it out somewhat competently (not a given), you are likely to be able to get yours started by May-ish if you are, say, under 40/45 with no underlying conditions or an occupation that would move you up.

Good news is that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the new strains in terms of limiting the need for hospitalization and death.  There may be a "booster" required if that changes but they can change these mRNA vaccines pretty quickly to counter that if needed.

Fwiw, I have a family member in healthcare who is predicting "near herd immunity" by June.  That is to say...basically the anti-covid vaxxers are going to be very likely to have gotten (or will get) covid and develop some short-term immunity while the rest of the country is likely to get vaccinated.  Together, those groups very well could make up 70+% of the population in a few months time.

The big question mark are the variants and the vaccines are holding up very well against those.

What is the % of under-18s in the US?  Until they are eligible for vaccination (I gather the testing has started for that age group) they are a big potential reservoir population.

24%.  My bad on phrasing it as 300m adults, they're just targeting 300m people to get it (presumably because some people won't get it - antivaxxers - and some people have conditions that prevent them from getting it).

They're doing some age-related testing now for below 18.  They'll end up getting it later/last if it proves to be safe.

[RetiredAt63]

Dr. Fauci said the U.S. will have 600m vaccination doses (enough for the ~300m adults in this country) by July.  Of course, not all 300m will get it, what with the anti-vax movement and anti-covid vax movement (those two can overlap but there are certainly plenty of anti-covid vaxxers who aren't anti-vax in general).  So, as long as states can roll it out somewhat competently (not a given), you are likely to be able to get yours started by May-ish if you are, say, under 40/45 with no underlying conditions or an occupation that would move you up.

Good news is that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the new strains in terms of limiting the need for hospitalization and death.  There may be a "booster" required if that changes but they can change these mRNA vaccines pretty quickly to counter that if needed.

Fwiw, I have a family member in healthcare who is predicting "near herd immunity" by June.  That is to say...basically the anti-covid vaxxers are going to be very likely to have gotten (or will get) covid and develop some short-term immunity while the rest of the country is likely to get vaccinated.  Together, those groups very well could make up 70+% of the population in a few months time.

The big question mark are the variants and the vaccines are holding up very well against those.

What is the % of under-18s in the US?  Until they are eligible for vaccination (I gather the testing has started for that age group) they are a big potential reservoir population.

24%.  My bad on phrasing it as 300m adults, they're just targeting 300m people to get it (presumably because some people won't get it - antivaxxers - and some people have conditions that prevent them from getting it).

They're doing some age-related testing now for below 18.  They'll end up getting it later/last if it proves to be safe.

So if 24% are under 18, that means 76% 18+  Any new figures for % population for herd immunity - I'm guessing that the more contagious variants will have changed the numbers?  I knew they had started the testing, I hope the results come fairly soon, because all those schools reopening are just places for the virus to spread until the students are vaccinated.

[DarkandStormy]

Dr. Fauci said the U.S. will have 600m vaccination doses (enough for the ~300m adults in this country) by July.  Of course, not all 300m will get it, what with the anti-vax movement and anti-covid vax movement (those two can overlap but there are certainly plenty of anti-covid vaxxers who aren't anti-vax in general).  So, as long as states can roll it out somewhat competently (not a given), you are likely to be able to get yours started by May-ish if you are, say, under 40/45 with no underlying conditions or an occupation that would move you up.

Good news is that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the new strains in terms of limiting the need for hospitalization and death.  There may be a "booster" required if that changes but they can change these mRNA vaccines pretty quickly to counter that if needed.

Fwiw, I have a family member in healthcare who is predicting "near herd immunity" by June.  That is to say...basically the anti-covid vaxxers are going to be very likely to have gotten (or will get) covid and develop some short-term immunity while the rest of the country is likely to get vaccinated.  Together, those groups very well could make up 70+% of the population in a few months time.

The big question mark are the variants and the vaccines are holding up very well against those.

What is the % of under-18s in the US?  Until they are eligible for vaccination (I gather the testing has started for that age group) they are a big potential reservoir population.

24%.  My bad on phrasing it as 300m adults, they're just targeting 300m people to get it (presumably because some people won't get it - antivaxxers - and some people have conditions that prevent them from getting it).

They're doing some age-related testing now for below 18.  They'll end up getting it later/last if it proves to be safe.

So if 24% are under 18, that means 76% 18+  Any new figures for % population for herd immunity - I'm guessing that the more contagious variants will have changed the numbers?  I knew they had started the testing, I hope the results come fairly soon, because all those schools reopening are just places for the virus to spread until the students are vaccinated.

No one really knows because we've never been through something like this.  Vaccines are still excellent at preventing severe symptoms, hospitalizations, and deaths against all known variants.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
12/31/20 -343233 deaths of 1811128 = 18.95%
1/7/2021 -361900 deaths of 1887970 = 19.17%
1/14/2021 -385503 deaths of 1983691 = 19.43%
1/21/2021 -406536 deaths of 2080009 = 19.55%
1/28/2021 -429870 deaths of 2180867 = 19.71%
2/4/2021 -451454 deaths of 2273515 = 19.86%
2/11/21 -472450 deaths of 2359200 = 20.02%
2/18/21 -490875 deaths of 2434048 = 20.17%
2/25/21 -506121 deaths of 2499964 = 20.25%

US and Worldwide death data is taken from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center site.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taking a break from the wall of text, look above if you want the week to week country comparison details

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/11/2021

1. Belgium [1851] +25
2. UK [1686] +67
3. Czechia [1658] +89
4. Italy [1535] +41
5. Portugal [1462] +138 *WHOA Highest riser of the week
6. USA [1455] +63 -still damn high consideration our vaccination progress. +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1394] +64
8. Bulgaria [1378] +45
9. Spain [1362] +71
10. Mexico [1308] +65
11. Peru [1289] +39
12. Croatia [1287] +39
13. Panama [1274] +42
14. France [1231] +44
15. Sweden [1220] +33

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/18/2021

1. Belgium [1875] +24
2. UK [1753] +67
3. Czechia [1748] +90 *biggest gain of the week
4. Italy [1571] +36
5. Portugal [1548] +86 *wave has crested in Portugal, but trend shows it will rise to #4 by next week
6. USA [1513] +58 -beginning to drop a bit!!! +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1455] +61
8. Spain [1418] +56
9. Bulgaria [1409] +31
10. Mexico [1364] +48
11. Peru [1332] +43
12. Croatia [1320] +33
13. Panama [1302] +28
14. France [1272] +41
15. Sweden [1243] +23

*very little country to country movement this week. Overall trends are encouraging for once. UK and Czech Republic threatening Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/25/2021

1. Belgium [1892] +17
2. Czechia [1850] +102 *biggest riser again.
3. UK [1792] +39 *Nice Drop
4. Italy [1600] +29
5. Portugal [1590] +42
6. USA [1562] +49 -continues slow drop +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1521] +66
8. Spain [1464] +47
9. Bulgaria [1450] +31
10. Mexico [1408] +44
11. Peru [1373] +41
12. Croatia [1342] +22
13. Panama [1328] +26
14. France [1305] +33
15. Sweden [1262] +29

*Overall trends remain encouraging. UK and Czech Republic continue to threaten Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250]
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.
12/31/20 -343233 [16962]
1/07/2021 -361900 [18667] -New Peak again. Sadly these are just abstract numbers in my head right now. Not sinking in that 4K Americans died just yesterday.
1/14/2021 -385503 [23603] -huge bump in the last week!!! Way worse than NYC in the Spring of 2020. Avg 3300+ deaths per day.
1/21/2021 -406536 [21033] -still ridiculously high. Should eventually come down with national infection trends and vaccine rollouts.
1/28/2021 -429870 [23334] -yup, still high. Since infections till death takes about 2-6 weeks, and infections appear to be coming down nationwide now (with hot pockets, of course). I suspect deaths should begin to come down in the next 2-6 weeks. Hopefully 2 weeks.
2/4/2021 -451454 [21584] -continues to average >20K deaths per week in the USA. Hopefully begins to truly trend down this upcoming week, following the case data.
2/11/21 -472450 [20996] -no trending down as of yet. I'm beginning to get worried that people are just testing a lot less, thus case counts are going down but deaths are not. Are we taking our feet off the gas?
12/18/21 -490875 [18425] -okay, seeing some movement here in the right direction. Hospitalizations are down to 63K from 134K just 30 days ago.
12/25/21 -506121 [15246] -nice progression. Also, down to 54K hospitalizations. Daily cases in US seem to be leveling off at 50K-75K per day over the last 10 days after a steep drop over the holidays.

JGS

[deborah]

US deaths as a percentage of world deaths is still going up, while USdeaths per day is going down. Is this a good thing, indicating that vaccines are making an impact worldwide? Are we seeing places without vaccines accelerating up the top 15 chart?

[JGS1980]

I guess it's a good thing for the world as their deaths are going down faster than US deaths.

Too soon to see where vaccines are making the most impact, but I think the UK is a prime candidate as they got started with vaccines a bit earlier than US. However, hard to tell how much of their drop is just secondary to completing their "wave" of infection. UK is certainly doing better than Czech Republic which is still getting slammed.

[RetiredAt63]

I guess it's a good thing for the world as their deaths are going down faster than US deaths.

Too soon to see where vaccines are making the most impact, but I think the UK is a prime candidate as they got started with vaccines a bit earlier than US. However, hard to tell how much of their drop is just secondary to completing their "wave" of infection. UK is certainly doing better than Czech Republic which is still getting slammed.

The UK's last wave was due to the B117 variant.  They were doing quite well before it hit.  That should be a warning to us all, as the new variants are spreading.

[katsiki]

No one really knows because we've never been through something like this.  Vaccines are still excellent at preventing severe symptoms, hospitalizations, and deaths against all known variants.

For @DarkandStormy or anyone else...

Can this pandemic not be compared to previous ones?  ie Spanish flu

I am genuinely curious...  Have we really never seen this before?

[JoJo]

We are now 6 days into the plateau in the # of cases curve in the US... so weird how fast it was sharply dropping for one full month after inauguration, then flat (if not trending up just slightly), not a general tapering off... so weird these stats

[Longwaytogo]

We are now 6 days into the plateau in the # of cases curve in the US... so weird how fast it was sharply dropping for one full month after inauguration, then flat (if not trending up just slightly), not a general tapering off... so weird these stats

I'd read something about stat delays from all the crazy Weather?

But yes; the stats and trends are defintley strange!!

Hopefully March sees another good decline and doesnt level off. Time will tell I guess.

[JoJo]

Ah, weather could be part of it.  Seems cold was starting around Feb 5th, so maybe the # cases curve wasn't so steep in those days, was just people avoiding getting testing because it was too cold/icy to go out. 

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
12/31/20 -343233 deaths of 1811128 = 18.95%
1/7/2021 -361900 deaths of 1887970 = 19.17%
1/14/2021 -385503 deaths of 1983691 = 19.43%
1/21/2021 -406536 deaths of 2080009 = 19.55%
1/28/2021 -429870 deaths of 2180867 = 19.71%
2/4/2021 -451454 deaths of 2273515 = 19.86%
2/11/21 -472450 deaths of 2359200 = 20.02%
2/18/21 -490875 deaths of 2434048 = 20.17%
2/25/21 -506121 deaths of 2499964 = 20.25%
3/4/21 -518380 deaths of 2562739 = 20.23% *another inflection point?

US and Worldwide death data is taken from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center site.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taking a break from the wall of text, look above if you want the week to week country comparison details

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/11/2021

1. Belgium [1851] +25
2. UK [1686] +67
3. Czechia [1658] +89
4. Italy [1535] +41
5. Portugal [1462] +138 *WHOA Highest riser of the week
6. USA [1455] +63 -still damn high consideration our vaccination progress. +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1394] +64
8. Bulgaria [1378] +45
9. Spain [1362] +71
10. Mexico [1308] +65
11. Peru [1289] +39
12. Croatia [1287] +39
13. Panama [1274] +42
14. France [1231] +44
15. Sweden [1220] +33

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/18/2021

1. Belgium [1875] +24
2. UK [1753] +67
3. Czechia [1748] +90 *biggest gain of the week
4. Italy [1571] +36
5. Portugal [1548] +86 *wave has crested in Portugal, but trend shows it will rise to #4 by next week
6. USA [1513] +58 -beginning to drop a bit!!! +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1455] +61
8. Spain [1418] +56
9. Bulgaria [1409] +31
10. Mexico [1364] +48
11. Peru [1332] +43
12. Croatia [1320] +33
13. Panama [1302] +28
14. France [1272] +41
15. Sweden [1243] +23

*very little country to country movement this week. Overall trends are encouraging for once. UK and Czech Republic threatening Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/25/2021

1. Belgium [1892] +17
2. Czechia [1850] +102 *biggest riser again.
3. UK [1792] +39 *Nice Drop
4. Italy [1600] +29
5. Portugal [1590] +42
6. USA [1562] +49 -continues slow drop +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1521] +66
8. Spain [1464] +47
9. Bulgaria [1450] +31
10. Mexico [1408] +44
11. Peru [1373] +41
12. Croatia [1342] +22
13. Panama [1328] +26
14. France [1305] +33
15. Sweden [1262] +29

*Overall trends remain encouraging. UK and Czech Republic continue to threaten Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/4/2021

1. Czechia [1970] +120 *takes the top spot
2. Belgium [1907] +15 -congrats to Belgium with its relative decrease. This took a long time to achieve.
3. UK [1821] +29 *continues to come down in the UK
4. Italy [1639] +39
5. Portugal [1617] +27
6. Hungary [1605] +84
7. USA [1600] +38 -continues to decelerate. So Texas opens up again (what?)
8. Bulgaria [1506] +56
9. Spain [1502] +38
10. Mexico [1448] +40
11. Peru [1415] +42
12. Slovakia [1384] ***new to list
13. Croatia [1361] +21
14. Panama [1350] +22
15. France [1339] +34

17. Brazil [1215]

*Overall trends remain kind of similar to last week except eastern Europe continues to get destroyed.

**Watch out for Brazil who has had more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate. This despite suspected undercounting. Their President Bolsonaro has doubled down on Hydroxychlorquine purchases instead of securing Covid vaccines.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250]
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.
12/31/20 -343233 [16962]
1/07/2021 -361900 [18667] -New Peak again. Sadly these are just abstract numbers in my head right now. Not sinking in that 4K Americans died just yesterday.
1/14/2021 -385503 [23603] -huge bump in the last week!!! Way worse than NYC in the Spring of 2020. Avg 3300+ deaths per day.
1/21/2021 -406536 [21033] -still ridiculously high. Should eventually come down with national infection trends and vaccine rollouts.
1/28/2021 -429870 [23334] -yup, still high. Since infections till death takes about 2-6 weeks, and infections appear to be coming down nationwide now (with hot pockets, of course). I suspect deaths should begin to come down in the next 2-6 weeks. Hopefully 2 weeks.
2/4/2021 -451454 [21584] -continues to average >20K deaths per week in the USA. Hopefully begins to truly trend down this upcoming week, following the case data.
2/11/21 -472450 [20996] -no trending down as of yet. I'm beginning to get worried that people are just testing a lot less, thus case counts are going down but deaths are not. Are we taking our feet off the gas?
2/18/21 -490875 [18425] -okay, seeing some movement here in the right direction. Hospitalizations are down to 63K from 134K just 30 days ago.
2/25/21 -506121 [15246] -nice progression. Also, down to 54K hospitalizations. Daily cases in US seem to be leveling off at 50K-75K per day over the last 10 days after a steep drop over the holidays.
3/4/21 -518380 [12259] -deaths still coming down. 45K hospitalizations is down too. Daily cases have stabilized at somewhere between 48K and 75K over the last 18 days. Beware the next wave.

JGS

[JoJo]

Texas should at least be an interesting case study... they are 8th highest in cases now.

 Excited the vaccines are rolling, but sad fact I saw last night is something like 23% of doses are going unused because people aren't showing up for appointments, bad logistics to get them in other arms at last minute, expiring doses or doses that can't stay at the right temps (power outages, etc).    Hopefully J&J can ramp up production... heck, send them to every Walgreens, CVS, etc... those shops are everywhere, good way to get out to the neighborhoods.

[waltworks]

Texas should at least be an interesting case study... they are 8th highest in cases now.

 Excited the vaccines are rolling, but sad fact I saw last night is something like 23% of doses are going unused because people aren't showing up for appointments, bad logistics to get them in other arms at last minute, expiring doses or doses that can't stay at the right temps (power outages, etc).    Hopefully J&J can ramp up production... heck, send them to every Walgreens, CVS, etc... those shops are everywhere, good way to get out to the neighborhoods.

Where did you hear that? I could believe that 23% of extant doses are yet to be injected/are in transit, but I don't think 23% are being dumped down the drain.

We're over 30% vaccinated (including pretty much 100% in any high risk category) where I live and when I went to get my shot yesterday they were moving people through *fast*. By the end of the month I'm guessing we'll be done with all restrictions.

-W

[JoJo]

The source wasn't super credible.. some instagram story by a nurse  (a pro vaxxer so not someone I would expect to lie about that)

[Dollar Slice]

In the states that are measuring vaccine waste (actually thrown in the trash) the numbers are mostly around a tenth of a percent. Not sure what that 23% is. A lot of doses are being held back for second doses, maybe that's being counted as "unused".

[maizefolk]

I don't know about 23%.

But with stories like that doctor in Texas who was fired for trying to use up the extra doses in a vaccine vial that would otherwise have had to be thrown out, my guess is the portion of manufactured doses which end up being thrown away rather than being given to someone, anyone, to avoid waste as increased from where it was at the start of the vaccination campaign.

[JGS1980]

I don't think vaccine waste is the story.

I think the real story is the approx 30 % of US Adults who STILL refuse to get vaccinated at all.

I wonder how much of that population directly overlaps with those who've already had the disease and thought it "wasn't a big deal" for them, so who cares about how it effects others. Meanwhile, they get to benefit from the immunity conveyed to them by others getting vaccinated instead.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/538198-over-30-percent-of-americans-say-they-wont-get-covid-19-vaccine-poll

[katsiki]

I don't think vaccine waste is the story.

I think the real story is the approx 30 % of US Adults who STILL refuse to get vaccinated at all.

I wonder how much of that population directly overlaps with those who've already had the disease and thought it "wasn't a big deal" for them, so who cares about how it effects others. Meanwhile, they get to benefit from the immunity conveyed to them by others getting vaccinated instead.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/538198-over-30-percent-of-americans-say-they-wont-get-covid-19-vaccine-poll

Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others?  I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.

Thanks @JGS1980 again for this thread.  Very informative!!

[waltworks]

Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others?  I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.

Preliminary results and every other vaccine for everything else say yes, but we won't know *for sure* for a bit longer.

-W

[JGS1980]

Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others?  I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.

Preliminary results and every other vaccine for everything else say yes, but we won't know *for sure* for a bit longer.

-W

What I saw was 66% reduction in spread once fully vaccinated. Can't remember where I read that, though.

[bacchi]

We're over 30% vaccinated (including pretty much 100% in any high risk category) where I live and when I went to get my shot yesterday they were moving people through *fast*. By the end of the month I'm guessing we'll be done with all restrictions.

That's both doses? That's incredible! We're at 8%.

[DarkandStormy]

We're over 30% vaccinated (including pretty much 100% in any high risk category) where I live and when I went to get my shot yesterday they were moving people through *fast*. By the end of the month I'm guessing we'll be done with all restrictions.

That's both doses? That's incredible! We're at 8%.

No U.S. state has reached 30% with one shot, let alone two.  Someone doesn't have their stats correct.

[jehovasfitness23]

We're over 30% vaccinated (including pretty much 100% in any high risk category) where I live and when I went to get my shot yesterday they were moving people through *fast*. By the end of the month I'm guessing we'll be done with all restrictions.

That's both doses? That's incredible! We're at 8%.

No U.S. state has reached 30% with one shot, let alone two.  Someone doesn't have their stats correct.

Yup, unless lives in another country

[maizefolk]

Individual towns or counties might be well ahead of statewide averages.

[waltworks]

No U.S. state has reached 30% with one shot, let alone two.  Someone doesn't have their stats correct.

I was speaking specifically of my county, which is small (~47k residents) and very rich/pro-vaccine. We are also surrounded by a red state which is much less enthusiastic, and the state gov't has a policy of increasing allocations to areas that use their full supply, and reducing supply for areas that don't. So a bit of a unique situation.

-W