Coronavirus Weekly Update

[Abe]

Sorry for replying to myself, but I had another thought:

The CDC now estimates the total cases is about 8x higher (depending on the region) than confirmed cases. WIth 12m known cases so far, total cases may be ~100m. There are two ways to look at this:

1. Assuming herd immunity is in the 30-70% range, we are approaching it.
2. Assuming we would see an asymptote once approaching herd immunity, we are still on the upslope and not approaching herd immunity yet.

Now that the pandemic is endemic in many states that are not aggressively trying to slow the spread (i.e. ND, SD, etc), we should have a good estimate of true herd immunity with serologic testing once the dust settles. This is important for vaccine distribution plans, especially if this coronavirus remains a seasonal endemic strain like the others.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Sorry for replying to myself, but I had another thought:

The CDC now estimates the total cases is about 8x higher (depending on the region) than confirmed cases. WIth 12m known cases so far, total cases may be ~100m. There are two ways to look at this:

1. Assuming herd immunity is in the 30-70% range, we are approaching it.
2. Assuming we would see an asymptote once approaching herd immunity, we are still on the upslope and not approaching herd immunity yet.

Now that the pandemic is endemic in many states that are not aggressively trying to slow the spread (i.e. ND, SD, etc), we should have a good estimate of true herd immunity with serologic testing once the dust settles. This is important for vaccine distribution plans, especially if this coronavirus remains a seasonal endemic strain like the others.

I'm just a lowly engineer, but being off by an order of magnitude on your part of the project takes serious diligence (bordering on malfeasance).  Like, you expect to be fired and will likely be black-balled because you really don't know what you are doing, or you do know and you are doing it just a little less wrong than will get you in trouble.  Maybe you can edge back in to an engineering role eventually, but you have some serious explaining to do...

How does this happen with a deadly disease and human lives on a country-wide scale?

[deborah]

Lack of testing.

People who don’t have symptoms won’t go to get tested. There are quite a lot of people who fall into this category.

People who have symptoms but are turned away at testing stations. The more people who have it per tester, the fewer the tester can be expected to test, so testing stations tighten the criteria.

People who won’t get tested despite having symptoms. Some people are only paid when they’re actually working, so going off sick, and getting tested will cost them money and possibly their job.

People who can’t get to a testing station to be tested.

[marty998]

I thought that 8x estimate error was just for Feb/March when testing was not as widespread as it is now. So you cannot extrapolate that confirmed cases error to the entire period from Feb to November

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

I doubt very much there would be 8x the number of cases as those reported. That would suggest that something like 70-90% of cases are asymptomatic or mild enough that no medical treatment was sought. I find that a difficult figure to believe.

[Abe]

Here's their paper (published): https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

After reading it, I note that the 100m is likely an overestimate as they report the error does appear to decrease with time over the period studied (April - September). Aug-Sep under-detection was estimated to be 4-6x (depending on age). At the end of September there were approx 6m known cases and they estimated approx 50m total cases. I think the media just multiplied the estimated cases by 2x since now we have 12m. Using the under-detection range of 4-6x, we would be at 48-72 million cases. So not 100m, but still substantially under-reported.

Bloop Bloop, I think you are overestimating the use of testing in the US, especially in rural areas that are being hit hard currently. Many areas are forgoing testing due to lack of supplies and no change in plan if the test is positive vs. negative (due to the high false negative rate). Even in healthcare workers with positive COVID-19 antibodies, about 45% reported no symptoms. http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6947a2-H.pdf . Thus, assuming everyone had as good access to care as we do (clearly not true in the US), the unreported cases are probably in the 22m range. I'd say this is an absolute low estimate for the true infections in the US at this point.

[Paper Chaser]

Lack of testing.

People who don’t have symptoms won’t go to get tested. There are quite a lot of people who fall into this category.

People who have symptoms but are turned away at testing stations. The more people who have it per tester, the fewer the tester can be expected to test, so testing stations tighten the criteria.

People who won’t get tested despite having symptoms. Some people are only paid when they’re actually working, so going off sick, and getting tested will cost them money and possibly their job.

People who can’t get to a testing station to be tested.

Not only is the availability of tests important, but the accuracy of the tests is also a big deal. The rapid tests are far less accurate and are much more likely to generate a false negative where a person that does have COVID doesn't get recorded as an official confirmed case.

Anectdotally, a coworker's wife is a nurse in assisted living facilities and is tested multiple times per week. She had symptoms and tested 'positive' for several weeks (quarantined appropriately). Their 3 teenagers also had symptoms and each tested positive. My coworker had the same symptoms as the rest of the family, at the same time, but tested 'negative'. It's almost a certainty that my coworker had it, but because of the negative test result his case won't be reflected in the official data.

[Davnasty]

I doubt very much there would be 8x the number of cases as those reported. That would suggest that something like 70-90% of cases are asymptomatic or mild enough that no medical treatment was sought. I find that a difficult figure to believe.

Look at the NFL (our professional football league). Seemingly half the players in the league have been on the Covid list now and I've yet to hear of a single one reporting symptoms.

A significant majority of players who land on the Covid IR list are there due to contact with people who test positive, not because they tested positive themselves. Haven't been able to find a count of positive tests within the NFL but it's nowhere near half.

Also can't find a count of how many of those players developed symptoms, but it's more than none. Ryquell Armstead(age 24) caught the virus before the season began and hasn't played a single game, he's been hospitalized twice since then. The Bills just announced that Tommy Sweeney(age 25) is out for the rest of the year due to heart complications developed after a difficult case of Covid. Calais Campbell(age 34) just posted on Twitter the other day "Speaking from experience...you don’t want to catch covid! This virus is brutal! I pray no one else has to go thru this. This is bigger than football."

That's just a quick google search but I'm sure there are others who have had less severe symptoms and/or downplayed the severity to the media.

[geekette]

Not everywhere, I'm sure, but around here, if you donate blood, they automatically test you for antibodies.  I think they want to harvest more than just your blood!  So far, I'm negative.

[JGS1980]

Sorry for replying to myself, but I had another thought:

The CDC now estimates the total cases is about 8x higher (depending on the region) than confirmed cases. WIth 12m known cases so far, total cases may be ~100m. There are two ways to look at this:

1. Assuming herd immunity is in the 30-70% range, we are approaching it.
2. Assuming we would see an asymptote once approaching herd immunity, we are still on the upslope and not approaching herd immunity yet.

Now that the pandemic is endemic in many states that are not aggressively trying to slow the spread (i.e. ND, SD, etc), we should have a good estimate of true herd immunity with serologic testing once the dust settles. This is important for vaccine distribution plans, especially if this coronavirus remains a seasonal endemic strain like the others.

I wonder if some states are already closer to the 70% then others?

Just as an example I was perusing Worldometers at lunch today as I have done way to many Mondays this year and comparing Florida to California-

Right now Florida has about 50% more cases per million and double the deaths per million then California so it would seem they are doing significantly worse.

Florida's daily cases peaked at 15,394 in Mid July and while they are rising steadily now they are at about an 8,000 - 7 day average or almost half of their worst so far.

Meanwhile California's Summer peak was 12,137 also in Mid July but they are now at a 7 day rolling average of about 14,500 So about a 20% increase vs a 48% decrease.

Anyway, probably reading way to much into it and it could be just total coincidence or chance. But I'll be curious to see how they each fair this winter.

Just for reference as of today:

Florida - Cases - 999,319  (46,528 per million)  Deaths  - 18,597  (866 per million)

California - Cases - 1,225,829  (31,024 per million)  Deaths  - 19,177  (485 per million)

Compare uninsured rates for both states. There lies your different in mortality.

If I remember correctly, Abe, NYC did an antibody random sampling after the March/April wave and they said only 22% or so of New Yorkers showed antibodies. That’s a far cry from 70%, and took about 25,000 deaths to “cull the herd”.

[Abe]

I agree that we are probably not at herd immunity in any meaningfully large population. Indeed, looking at graphs of cumulative cases it is apparent that no state has managed to level off. Some have made the increase linear rather than exponential (SC and NC for example), while others leveled for a while before returning to exponential growth (NY for example), and still others had a long lead-in to the current exponential growth (WY, ND, SD). It's thus more likely that #2 is the likely scenario.


@JGS1980 you're correct about that study. Indeed it's worse than it appears because those were dialysis patients who are presumably very high risk due to frequency of necessary travel to indoor locations with multiple unrelated people spending long periods of time together. 

[stoaX]

Sorry for replying to myself, but I had another thought:

The CDC now estimates the total cases is about 8x higher (depending on the region) than confirmed cases. WIth 12m known cases so far, total cases may be ~100m. There are two ways to look at this:

1. Assuming herd immunity is in the 30-70% range, we are approaching it.
2. Assuming we would see an asymptote once approaching herd immunity, we are still on the upslope and not approaching herd immunity yet.

Now that the pandemic is endemic in many states that are not aggressively trying to slow the spread (i.e. ND, SD, etc), we should have a good estimate of true herd immunity with serologic testing once the dust settles. This is important for vaccine distribution plans, especially if this coronavirus remains a seasonal endemic strain like the others.

I wonder if some states are already closer to the 70% then others?

Just as an example I was perusing Worldometers at lunch today as I have done way to many Mondays this year and comparing Florida to California-

Right now Florida has about 50% more cases per million and double the deaths per million then California so it would seem they are doing significantly worse.

Florida's daily cases peaked at 15,394 in Mid July and while they are rising steadily now they are at about an 8,000 - 7 day average or almost half of their worst so far.

Meanwhile California's Summer peak was 12,137 also in Mid July but they are now at a 7 day rolling average of about 14,500 So about a 20% increase vs a 48% decrease.

Anyway, probably reading way to much into it and it could be just total coincidence or chance. But I'll be curious to see how they each fair this winter.

Just for reference as of today:

Florida - Cases - 999,319  (46,528 per million)  Deaths  - 18,597  (866 per million)

California - Cases - 1,225,829  (31,024 per million)  Deaths  - 19,177  (485 per million)

Compare uninsured rates for both states. There lies your different in mortality.

If I remember correctly, Abe, NYC did an antibody random sampling after the March/April wave and they said only 22% or so of New Yorkers showed antibodies. That’s a far cry from 70%, and took about 25,000 deaths to “cull the herd”.

The average age of the population in california is a little over 36 years old compared to Florida at a bit over 41. That could have a statistically significant impact on mortality.

[JGS1980]

The average age of the population in california is a little over 36 years old compared to Florida at a bit over 41. That could have a statistically significant impact on mortality.

Maybe, but if you remember, its the very, very old that are the most likely to die from Covid. And Florida has the highest percentage of elderly in the country.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/07/09/where-do-the-oldest-americans-live/#:~:text=By%20many%20measures%2C%20Florida%20%E2%80%93%20which,highest%20percentage%20in%20the%20nation

Overall, it's probably a wash.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
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Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/5/20

1. Belgium [1062] +100 -2nd wave another HUGE bump for Belgium
2. Peru [1047] +11
3. Spain [823] +65 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration as well
4. Brazil [757] +13
5. Chile [751] +19
6. Bolivia [747] +5
7. USA [725] +21 death rate accelerating. Each death/million translates to about 300 USA deaths in the previous week.
8. Mexico [720] +22
9. Argentina [717] +54 -still rising rapidly. Technically first wave in Argentina, I think
10. Ecuador [716] +5
11. UK [702]  +20 -2nd wave still accelerating
12. Italy [665] +38 -2nd wave
13. Panama [633] +19
14. Colombia [627] +25
15. France [598] +50 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration
16. Sweden [593] +7 -second wave has begun in Sweden as well as predicted above (If this follows the rest of Europe, it will lead to 12 and then 25, and then 50 in the next 4-5 weeks)
 
***Biggest movers last week were Belgium, Spain, Argentina, and France. Italy and UK close behind. Meanwhile I'm all but certain that on average at least 1000 US citizens will be dying daily for at least the next 6 weeks.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/12/20

1. Belgium [1158] +96
2. Peru [1056] +9
3. Spain [858] +35 -rapid deceleration in pain is encouraging
4. Brazil [769] +12
5. Chile [767]+3
6. Argentina [757] +40 -still rising rapidly.
7. USA [746] +21 again
8. UK [739] +37 -2nd wave still accelerating in the UK
9. Bolivia [751] +4
10. Mexico [741] +21
11. Ecuador [727] +11
12. Italy [711] +46 -2nd wave still accelerating in Italy
13. France [651] +53 -2nd wave
14. Colombia [650] +23 -decelerating in Columbia
15. Panama [633] +18
16. Sweden [604] +11 -second wave accelerating in Sweden continues. I predicted 12 (we got 11 deaths/million this week, if trend continues will be 23-25 or so next week, and then approx 45-50 in the 2 weeks after).

*Note that I'm not including smallish countries less than 4 Million or so. This is fairly arbitrary on my part. The next up and coming country is Czechia with >10 million people and a death rate of >550/million.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/19/20

1. Belgium [1294] +136
2. Peru [1068] +12
3. Spain [899] +41
4. Argentina [801] +44
5. Italy [792] +81 -2nd wave with scary acceleration (Italy all the way up to #5 from #12 in just 1 week!)
6. UK [791] +52 -2nd wave
7. Brazil [786] +17
8. Chile [780] +13
9. USA [774] +28 with concerning acceleration (+>40 next week?). I feel that half the country is trying to mitigate things, so that leads to a lower acceleration rate than the 2nd wave in Europe.
10. Mexico [769] +28
11. Bolivia [756] +5
12. Ecuador [736] +9
13. France [715] +64 -2nd wave with continued acceleration
14. Colombia [677] +27
15. Panama [670] +37 -doubled in rate
*** Sweden [626] +22 [predicted was +23-25. Probably 40+ in another week]
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/26/20

1. Belgium [1385] +91
2. Peru [1079] +11
3. Spain [949] +50 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths (I think)
4. Italy [875] +83 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
5. UK [838] +47 -2nd wave
6. Argentina [836] +35
7. USA [812] +38 -with continued scary acceleration
8. Brazil [805] +19
9. Mexico [800] +31
10. Chile [794] +14
11. France [780 715] +65 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
12. Bolivia [761] +5
13. Ecuador [750] +14
14. Czechia [723] *new to top 15
15. Colombia [705] +28
16. Panama [691] +21
17.*** Sweden [654] +28 [predicted +40, so they are mitigating things and there was lots of press about this in the international news, congrats Sweden on seeing the light] 
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/3/20

1. Belgium [1456] +71 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Peru [1088] +9
3. Spain [979] +30 -2nd wave decelerating
4. Italy [961] +86 -2nd wave still peaking
5. UK [884] +46 -2nd wave still peaking
6. Argentina [863] +27 decelerating
7. USA [844] +32 -still high, relative deceleration may be Thanksgiving artifact, we shall see.
8. Mexico [831] +31 -still rising rapidly, but may have reached peak
9. France [824] +44 -2nd wave decelerating
10. Brazil [819] +14
11. Chile [805] +11
12. Czechia [795] +72 ***Czech Republic acceleration over the last few weeks is very alarming.
13. Ecuador [764] +14
14. Bolivia [764] +4
15. Colombia [726] +21
16. Panama [717] +26
17. Sweden [692] +38 -still accelerating in Sweden.

***Czech Republic's rise is alarming, but this is not an isolated issue. ALL of eastern Europe is getting crushed right now. North Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Slovenia, and Armenia would all make the list above if not for my arbitrary 4 million people population cutoff. Why are these trends never covered in our national news?

*****Russia update. Those liars. Russia documents about the same number of Covid cases as France (2.3 million), but has a death rate that is 3x lower/million. If you buy that, I have an oceanfront property to sell you in Utah.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.

[JGS1980]

Interesting report on Europe and especially Eastern Europe from today. Basically reiterating what our numbers showed yesterday.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/04/world/europe/europe-covid-deaths.html

[OtherJen]

So this is pretty disturbing:

‘DeSantis sent the Gestapo’: Fired Florida Covid data scientist films home being raided by police

The data scientist fired for refusing to ‘manipulate’ Florida’s Covid figures filmed her home being raided by state police who seized her computer equipment.

Rebekah Jones posted the shocking footage on Twitter and claimed that Florida governor Ron DeSantis had “sent the gestapo” for her.

[Abe]

Overall continue sharp increase in deaths per day and cases per day in the US.

We have exponential growth since October 1 at a rate of 1.1% per day, and November at 1.3% per day.

Ruh roh.

[GuitarStv]

So this is pretty disturbing:

‘DeSantis sent the Gestapo’: Fired Florida Covid data scientist films home being raided by police

The data scientist fired for refusing to ‘manipulate’ Florida’s Covid figures filmed her home being raided by state police who seized her computer equipment.

Rebekah Jones posted the shocking footage on Twitter and claimed that Florida governor Ron DeSantis had “sent the gestapo” for her.

Sending police to seize the computer of a person who is releasing health information during a crisis sure doesn't look very good.

Where are all the 'freedumb' anti-mask protestors?  I thought they were fans of civil rights . . .

[Glenstache]

Where are all the 'freedumb' anti-mask protestors?  I thought they were fans of civil rights . . .

Apparently off complaining about government overreach for making them wear a mask.

[JGS1980]

Where are all the 'freedumb' anti-mask protestors?  I thought they were fans of civil rights . . .

Apparently off complaining about government overreach for making them wear a mask.

I hope she finds a good lawyer and sues the heck out of the State of Florida.

[GuitarStv]

Where are all the 'freedumb' anti-mask protestors?  I thought they were fans of civil rights . . .

Apparently off complaining about government overreach for making them wear a mask.

I hope she finds a good lawyer and sues the heck out of the State of Florida.

It kinda feels like there's going to be a long line to sue DeSantis and Florida when all of this is said and done.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/2020 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/5/20

1. Belgium [1062] +100 -2nd wave another HUGE bump for Belgium
2. Peru [1047] +11
3. Spain [823] +65 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration as well
4. Brazil [757] +13
5. Chile [751] +19
6. Bolivia [747] +5
7. USA [725] +21 death rate accelerating. Each death/million translates to about 300 USA deaths in the previous week.
8. Mexico [720] +22
9. Argentina [717] +54 -still rising rapidly. Technically first wave in Argentina, I think
10. Ecuador [716] +5
11. UK [702]  +20 -2nd wave still accelerating
12. Italy [665] +38 -2nd wave
13. Panama [633] +19
14. Colombia [627] +25
15. France [598] +50 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration
16. Sweden [593] +7 -second wave has begun in Sweden as well as predicted above (If this follows the rest of Europe, it will lead to 12 and then 25, and then 50 in the next 4-5 weeks)
 
***Biggest movers last week were Belgium, Spain, Argentina, and France. Italy and UK close behind. Meanwhile I'm all but certain that on average at least 1000 US citizens will be dying daily for at least the next 6 weeks.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/12/20

1. Belgium [1158] +96
2. Peru [1056] +9
3. Spain [858] +35 -rapid deceleration in pain is encouraging
4. Brazil [769] +12
5. Chile [767]+3
6. Argentina [757] +40 -still rising rapidly.
7. USA [746] +21 again
8. UK [739] +37 -2nd wave still accelerating in the UK
9. Bolivia [751] +4
10. Mexico [741] +21
11. Ecuador [727] +11
12. Italy [711] +46 -2nd wave still accelerating in Italy
13. France [651] +53 -2nd wave
14. Colombia [650] +23 -decelerating in Columbia
15. Panama [633] +18
16. Sweden [604] +11 -second wave accelerating in Sweden continues. I predicted 12 (we got 11 deaths/million this week, if trend continues will be 23-25 or so next week, and then approx 45-50 in the 2 weeks after).

*Note that I'm not including smallish countries less than 4 Million or so. This is fairly arbitrary on my part. The next up and coming country is Czechia with >10 million people and a death rate of >550/million.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/19/20

1. Belgium [1294] +136
2. Peru [1068] +12
3. Spain [899] +41
4. Argentina [801] +44
5. Italy [792] +81 -2nd wave with scary acceleration (Italy all the way up to #5 from #12 in just 1 week!)
6. UK [791] +52 -2nd wave
7. Brazil [786] +17
8. Chile [780] +13
9. USA [774] +28 with concerning acceleration (+>40 next week?). I feel that half the country is trying to mitigate things, so that leads to a lower acceleration rate than the 2nd wave in Europe.
10. Mexico [769] +28
11. Bolivia [756] +5
12. Ecuador [736] +9
13. France [715] +64 -2nd wave with continued acceleration
14. Colombia [677] +27
15. Panama [670] +37 -doubled in rate
*** Sweden [626] +22 [predicted was +23-25. Probably 40+ in another week]
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/26/20

1. Belgium [1385] +91
2. Peru [1079] +11
3. Spain [949] +50 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths (I think)
4. Italy [875] +83 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
5. UK [838] +47 -2nd wave
6. Argentina [836] +35
7. USA [812] +38 -with continued scary acceleration
8. Brazil [805] +19
9. Mexico [800] +31
10. Chile [794] +14
11. France [780 715] +65 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
12. Bolivia [761] +5
13. Ecuador [750] +14
14. Czechia [723] *new to top 15
15. Colombia [705] +28
16. Panama [691] +21
17.*** Sweden [654] +28 [predicted +40, so they are mitigating things and there was lots of press about this in the international news, congrats Sweden on seeing the light] 
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/3/20

1. Belgium [1456] +71 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Peru [1088] +9
3. Spain [979] +30 -2nd wave decelerating
4. Italy [961] +86 -2nd wave still peaking
5. UK [884] +46 -2nd wave still peaking
6. Argentina [863] +27 decelerating
7. USA [844] +32 -still high, relative deceleration may be Thanksgiving artifact, we shall see.
8. Mexico [831] +31 -still rising rapidly, but may have reached peak
9. France [824] +44 -2nd wave decelerating
10. Brazil [819] +14
11. Chile [805] +11
12. Czechia [795] +72 ***Czech Republic acceleration over the last few weeks is very alarming.
13. Ecuador [764] +14
14. Bolivia [764] +4
15. Colombia [726] +21
16. Panama [717] +26
17. Sweden [692] +38 -still accelerating in Sweden.

***Czech Republic's rise is alarming, but this is not an isolated issue. ALL of eastern Europe is getting crushed right now. North Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Slovenia, and Armenia would all make the list above if not for my arbitrary 4 million people population cutoff. Why are these trends never covered in our national news?

*****Russia update. Those liars. Russia documents about the same number of Covid cases as France (2.3 million), but has a death rate that is 3x lower/million. If you buy that, I have an oceanfront property to sell you in Utah.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/10/20

1. Belgium [1516] +60 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Peru [1099] +11
3. Italy [1036] +75 -2nd wave decelerating
4. Spain [1005 979] +26 -2nd wave decelerating
5. UK [927] +43 -2nd wave still peaking
6. USA [897] +53 -accelerating again
7. Argentina [886] +23 decelerating
8. France [867 824] +43 -2nd wave decelerating
9. Mexico [862 831] +31 -same peak
10. Czechia [861 795] +66 -decelerating a tiny bit
11. Brazil [840] +21
12. Chile [822] +17
13. Ecuador [780] +16
14. Bolivia [767] +3
15. Bulgaria [763] *New to list
-----
18. Sweden [726] +34 -2nd wave decelerating in Sweden. ICU capacity in Stockholm is 99% per the BBC.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

So what do folks make of reports of events like these - https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/944200394/florida-agents-raid-home-of-rebekah-jones-former-state-data-scientist

Jones has said she lost her job after she refused requests to manipulate data to suggest Florida was ready to ease coronavirus restrictions. A spokesperson for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at the time that she "exhibited a repeated course of insubordination during her time with the department."

There seems to be a general sense that the 'real numbers' are much worse than what has been reported...

[Abe]

New York Times for US cases, CDC for excess mortality in US, national health services for excess deaths and cases in other countries.

[JGS1980]

About 3.5 weeks ago, I thought it was "likely" that the USA would get to 300K deaths by New Years.

We beat that "deadline" by 2.5 weeks today.  Hard to pin down exponential trends sometimes.

300267 per the John Hopkins website.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[Abe]

https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/ shows the combined forecast using a variety of models. Of note, you will see if you step backward that the ensemble model tends to underestimate growth in deaths per week. So the estimated 16k-18k deaths per week for the next month is very concerning.

[JGS1980]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55347021

Coronavirus: Swedish King Carl XVI Gustaf says coronavirus approach 'has failed'.

There you have it, JGS

[Fireball]

Every time I visit this thread, I'm in awe of how relentless and contagious this virus is proving to be. Wow.

[ixtap]

About 3.5 weeks ago, I thought it was "likely" that the USA would get to 300K deaths by New Years.

We beat that "deadline" by 2.5 weeks today.  Hard to pin down exponential trends sometimes.

300267 per the John Hopkins website.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I had it pegged by Christmas at one point and was still surprised by this.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

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Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/5/20

1. Belgium [1062] +100 -2nd wave another HUGE bump for Belgium
2. Peru [1047] +11
3. Spain [823] +65 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration as well
4. Brazil [757] +13
5. Chile [751] +19
6. Bolivia [747] +5
7. USA [725] +21 death rate accelerating. Each death/million translates to about 300 USA deaths in the previous week.
8. Mexico [720] +22
9. Argentina [717] +54 -still rising rapidly. Technically first wave in Argentina, I think
10. Ecuador [716] +5
11. UK [702]  +20 -2nd wave still accelerating
12. Italy [665] +38 -2nd wave
13. Panama [633] +19
14. Colombia [627] +25
15. France [598] +50 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration
16. Sweden [593] +7 -second wave has begun in Sweden as well as predicted above (If this follows the rest of Europe, it will lead to 12 and then 25, and then 50 in the next 4-5 weeks)
 
***Biggest movers last week were Belgium, Spain, Argentina, and France. Italy and UK close behind. Meanwhile I'm all but certain that on average at least 1000 US citizens will be dying daily for at least the next 6 weeks.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/12/20

1. Belgium [1158] +96
2. Peru [1056] +9
3. Spain [858] +35 -rapid deceleration in pain is encouraging
4. Brazil [769] +12
5. Chile [767]+3
6. Argentina [757] +40 -still rising rapidly.
7. USA [746] +21 again
8. UK [739] +37 -2nd wave still accelerating in the UK
9. Bolivia [751] +4
10. Mexico [741] +21
11. Ecuador [727] +11
12. Italy [711] +46 -2nd wave still accelerating in Italy
13. France [651] +53 -2nd wave
14. Colombia [650] +23 -decelerating in Columbia
15. Panama [633] +18
16. Sweden [604] +11 -second wave accelerating in Sweden continues. I predicted 12 (we got 11 deaths/million this week, if trend continues will be 23-25 or so next week, and then approx 45-50 in the 2 weeks after).

*Note that I'm not including smallish countries less than 4 Million or so. This is fairly arbitrary on my part. The next up and coming country is Czechia with >10 million people and a death rate of >550/million.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/19/20

1. Belgium [1294] +136
2. Peru [1068] +12
3. Spain [899] +41
4. Argentina [801] +44
5. Italy [792] +81 -2nd wave with scary acceleration (Italy all the way up to #5 from #12 in just 1 week!)
6. UK [791] +52 -2nd wave
7. Brazil [786] +17
8. Chile [780] +13
9. USA [774] +28 with concerning acceleration (+>40 next week?). I feel that half the country is trying to mitigate things, so that leads to a lower acceleration rate than the 2nd wave in Europe.
10. Mexico [769] +28
11. Bolivia [756] +5
12. Ecuador [736] +9
13. France [715] +64 -2nd wave with continued acceleration
14. Colombia [677] +27
15. Panama [670] +37 -doubled in rate
*** Sweden [626] +22 [predicted was +23-25. Probably 40+ in another week]
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/26/20

1. Belgium [1385] +91
2. Peru [1079] +11
3. Spain [949] +50 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths (I think)
4. Italy [875] +83 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
5. UK [838] +47 -2nd wave
6. Argentina [836] +35
7. USA [812] +38 -with continued scary acceleration
8. Brazil [805] +19
9. Mexico [800] +31
10. Chile [794] +14
11. France [780 715] +65 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
12. Bolivia [761] +5
13. Ecuador [750] +14
14. Czechia [723] *new to top 15
15. Colombia [705] +28
16. Panama [691] +21
17.*** Sweden [654] +28 [predicted +40, so they are mitigating things and there was lots of press about this in the international news, congrats Sweden on seeing the light] 
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/3/20

1. Belgium [1456] +71 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Peru [1088] +9
3. Spain [979] +30 -2nd wave decelerating
4. Italy [961] +86 -2nd wave still peaking
5. UK [884] +46 -2nd wave still peaking
6. Argentina [863] +27 decelerating
7. USA [844] +32 -still high, relative deceleration may be Thanksgiving artifact, we shall see.
8. Mexico [831] +31 -still rising rapidly, but may have reached peak
9. France [824] +44 -2nd wave decelerating
10. Brazil [819] +14
11. Chile [805] +11
12. Czechia [795] +72 ***Czech Republic acceleration over the last few weeks is very alarming.
13. Ecuador [764] +14
14. Bolivia [764] +4
15. Colombia [726] +21
16. Panama [717] +26
17. Sweden [692] +38 -still accelerating in Sweden.

***Czech Republic's rise is alarming, but this is not an isolated issue. ALL of eastern Europe is getting crushed right now. North Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Slovenia, and Armenia would all make the list above if not for my arbitrary 4 million people population cutoff. Why are these trends never covered in our national news?

*****Russia update. Those liars. Russia documents about the same number of Covid cases as France (2.3 million), but has a death rate that is 3x lower/million. If you buy that, I have an oceanfront property to sell you in Utah.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/10/20

1. Belgium [1516] +60 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Peru [1099] +11
3. Italy [1036] +75 -2nd wave decelerating
4. Spain [1005] +26 -2nd wave decelerating
5. UK [927] +43 -2nd wave still peaking
6. USA [897] +53 -accelerating again
7. Argentina [886] +23 decelerating
8. France [867] +43 -2nd wave decelerating
9. Mexico [862] +31 -same peak
10. Czechia [861] +66 -decelerating a tiny bit
11. Brazil [840] +21
12. Chile [822] +17
13. Ecuador [780] +16
14. Bolivia [767] +3
15. Bulgaria [763] *New to list
-----
18. Sweden [726] +34 -2nd wave deceleration noted. ICU capacity in Stockholm is 99% per the BBC.
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/17/20

1. Belgium [1574] +58 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Italy [1113] +77 -2nd wave still high
3. Peru [1111] +12
4. Spain [1039] +34 -2nd wave continues
5. UK [971] +44 -2nd wave still peaking
6. USA [950] +63 -2nd wave acceleration continues with no signs of slowing down
7. Czechia [936] +75 -staying very high
8. Argentina [911] +25
9. France [908] +41 -2nd wave slowly decelerating
10. Bulgaria [895] +132 !!! Eastern Europe continues to get hit very hard right now.
11. Mexico [894] +32 -very steady in Mexico
12. Brazil [863] +23
13. Chile [834] +12
14. Panama [791] *back on list
15. Ecuador [783] +3
16. Hungary [781] *heating up and soon to join the list
17. Sweden [779] +53 -ICU capacity has been maxed out, leading to huge increase in the last week.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.

[GuitarStv]

At least you don't have the Christmas and New Years party numbers to contend with yet.

[OtherJen]

No, we don't. And daily COVID deaths topped 3600 in the US yesterday. That's far more than the 9/11 death toll.

[JGS1980]

https://covidtracking.com/data/national

Currently Hospitalized peaked at 114459 on Dec 17th. Hopefully that means this trend will continue to head downward now, and NOT that we've run out of hospital beds in many places in the USA.

[Abe]

https://covidtracking.com/data/national

Currently Hospitalized peaked at 114459 on Dec 17th. Hopefully that means this trend will continue to head downward now, and NOT that we've run out of hospital beds in many places in the USA.

It's up to 119k now.

Here's a graph of % of state population that's had a confirmed COVID-19 infection

[JGS1980]

https://covidtracking.com/data/national

Currently Hospitalized peaked at 114459 on Dec 17th. Hopefully that means this trend will continue to head downward now, and NOT that we've run out of hospital beds in many places in the USA.

It's up to 119k now.

Here's a graph of % of state population that's had a confirmed COVID-19 infection

Yes, this is awful. So currently 119K of 925K total beds in the US are Covid admissions. About 12.8% percent. How much additional capacity can there be? You can put a cot anywhere, but where are you going to get the staff?

[Abe]

https://covidtracking.com/data/national

Currently Hospitalized peaked at 114459 on Dec 17th. Hopefully that means this trend will continue to head downward now, and NOT that we've run out of hospital beds in many places in the USA.

It's up to 119k now.

Here's a graph of % of state population that's had a confirmed COVID-19 infection

Yes, this is awful. So currently 119K of 925K total beds in the US are Covid admissions. About 12.8% percent. How much additional capacity can there be? You can put a cot anywhere, but where are you going to get the staff?

We haven't used as much of the field hospital approach as we could, especially for lower-acuity patients who need supplemental oxygen but are otherwise stable. Setting up such systems with trained medics (civilian and/or military) would offload capacity for normal beds. ICU beds are where we're hitting staffing limits. They're asking people such as myself (training in critical care as a resident for several years, but no recent critical-care management recently) to fill in. Mostly as vent/pressors fiddlers to give the intensivists a break to sleep a few hours straight at night. Honestly people who are at that stage there isn't much to do with management other than waiting for them to either recover or die, making small tweaks here and there. Paradoxically that's where I'd come in handy.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
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Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/5/20

1. Belgium [1062] +100 -2nd wave another HUGE bump for Belgium
2. Peru [1047] +11
3. Spain [823] +65 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration as well
4. Brazil [757] +13
5. Chile [751] +19
6. Bolivia [747] +5
7. USA [725] +21 death rate accelerating. Each death/million translates to about 300 USA deaths in the previous week.
8. Mexico [720] +22
9. Argentina [717] +54 -still rising rapidly. Technically first wave in Argentina, I think
10. Ecuador [716] +5
11. UK [702]  +20 -2nd wave still accelerating
12. Italy [665] +38 -2nd wave
13. Panama [633] +19
14. Colombia [627] +25
15. France [598] +50 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration
16. Sweden [593] +7 -second wave has begun in Sweden as well as predicted above (If this follows the rest of Europe, it will lead to 12 and then 25, and then 50 in the next 4-5 weeks)
 
***Biggest movers last week were Belgium, Spain, Argentina, and France. Italy and UK close behind. Meanwhile I'm all but certain that on average at least 1000 US citizens will be dying daily for at least the next 6 weeks.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/12/20

1. Belgium [1158] +96
2. Peru [1056] +9
3. Spain [858] +35 -rapid deceleration in pain is encouraging
4. Brazil [769] +12
5. Chile [767]+3
6. Argentina [757] +40 -still rising rapidly.
7. USA [746] +21 again
8. UK [739] +37 -2nd wave still accelerating in the UK
9. Bolivia [751] +4
10. Mexico [741] +21
11. Ecuador [727] +11
12. Italy [711] +46 -2nd wave still accelerating in Italy
13. France [651] +53 -2nd wave
14. Colombia [650] +23 -decelerating in Columbia
15. Panama [633] +18
16. Sweden [604] +11 -second wave accelerating in Sweden continues. I predicted 12 (we got 11 deaths/million this week, if trend continues will be 23-25 or so next week, and then approx 45-50 in the 2 weeks after).

*Note that I'm not including smallish countries less than 4 Million or so. This is fairly arbitrary on my part. The next up and coming country is Czechia with >10 million people and a death rate of >550/million.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/19/20

1. Belgium [1294] +136
2. Peru [1068] +12
3. Spain [899] +41
4. Argentina [801] +44
5. Italy [792] +81 -2nd wave with scary acceleration (Italy all the way up to #5 from #12 in just 1 week!)
6. UK [791] +52 -2nd wave
7. Brazil [786] +17
8. Chile [780] +13
9. USA [774] +28 with concerning acceleration (+>40 next week?). I feel that half the country is trying to mitigate things, so that leads to a lower acceleration rate than the 2nd wave in Europe.
10. Mexico [769] +28
11. Bolivia [756] +5
12. Ecuador [736] +9
13. France [715] +64 -2nd wave with continued acceleration
14. Colombia [677] +27
15. Panama [670] +37 -doubled in rate
*** Sweden [626] +22 [predicted was +23-25. Probably 40+ in another week]
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/26/20

1. Belgium [1385] +91
2. Peru [1079] +11
3. Spain [949] +50 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths (I think)
4. Italy [875] +83 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
5. UK [838] +47 -2nd wave
6. Argentina [836] +35
7. USA [812] +38 -with continued scary acceleration
8. Brazil [805] +19
9. Mexico [800] +31
10. Chile [794] +14
11. France [780 715] +65 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
12. Bolivia [761] +5
13. Ecuador [750] +14
14. Czechia [723] *new to top 15
15. Colombia [705] +28
16. Panama [691] +21
17.*** Sweden [654] +28 [predicted +40, so they are mitigating things and there was lots of press about this in the international news, congrats Sweden on seeing the light] 
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/3/20

1. Belgium [1456] +71 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Peru [1088] +9
3. Spain [979] +30 -2nd wave decelerating
4. Italy [961] +86 -2nd wave still peaking
5. UK [884] +46 -2nd wave still peaking
6. Argentina [863] +27 decelerating
7. USA [844] +32 -still high, relative deceleration may be Thanksgiving artifact, we shall see.
8. Mexico [831] +31 -still rising rapidly, but may have reached peak
9. France [824] +44 -2nd wave decelerating
10. Brazil [819] +14
11. Chile [805] +11
12. Czechia [795] +72 ***Czech Republic acceleration over the last few weeks is very alarming.
13. Ecuador [764] +14
14. Bolivia [764] +4
15. Colombia [726] +21
16. Panama [717] +26
17. Sweden [692] +38 -still accelerating in Sweden.

***Czech Republic's rise is alarming, but this is not an isolated issue. ALL of eastern Europe is getting crushed right now. North Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Slovenia, and Armenia would all make the list above if not for my arbitrary 4 million people population cutoff. Why are these trends never covered in our national news?

*****Russia update. Those liars. Russia documents about the same number of Covid cases as France (2.3 million), but has a death rate that is 3x lower/million. If you buy that, I have an oceanfront property to sell you in Utah.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/10/20

1. Belgium [1516] +60 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Peru [1099] +11
3. Italy [1036] +75 -2nd wave decelerating
4. Spain [1005] +26 -2nd wave decelerating
5. UK [927] +43 -2nd wave still peaking
6. USA [897] +53 -accelerating again
7. Argentina [886] +23 decelerating
8. France [867] +43 -2nd wave decelerating
9. Mexico [862] +31 -same peak
10. Czechia [861] +66 -decelerating a tiny bit
11. Brazil [840] +21
12. Chile [822] +17
13. Ecuador [780] +16
14. Bolivia [767] +3
15. Bulgaria [763] *New to list
-----
18. Sweden [726] +34 -2nd wave deceleration noted. ICU capacity in Stockholm is 99% per the BBC.
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/17/20

1. Belgium [1574] +58 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Italy [1113] +77 -2nd wave still high
3. Peru [1111] +12
4. Spain [1039] +34 -2nd wave continues
5. UK [971] +44 -2nd wave still peaking
6. USA [950] +63 -2nd wave acceleration continues with no signs of slowing down
7. Czechia [936] +75 -staying very high
8. Argentina [911] +25
9. France [908] +41 -2nd wave slowly decelerating
10. Bulgaria [895] +132 !!! Eastern Europe continues to get hit very hard right now.
11. Mexico [894] +32 -very steady in Mexico
12. Brazil [863] +23
13. Chile [834] +12
14. Panama [791] *back on list
15. Ecuador [783] +3
16. Hungary [781] *heating up and soon to join the list
17. Sweden [779] +53 -ICU capacity has been maxed out, leading to huge increase in the last week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/25/20

1. Belgium [1639] +60
2. Italy [1173] +60
3. Peru [1124] +13 *Why do we NEVER here any media reports about Peru? Home to 33 million people.
4. Spain [1065] +26
5. UK [1023] +20 -still rising
6. USA [1015] +65 -2nd wave hitting a plateau? Lets home the vaccines start decreasing the death rate in about 2-3 weeks as the most at risk folks get the vaccine 1st.
7. Bulgaria [1014] +119
8. Czechia [1013] +77
9. France [953] +45
10. Mexico [935] +41
11. Argentina [934] +23
12. Hungary [915 ] +134 ***Top riser. Eastern Europe is getting decimated.
13. Brazil [891] +28
14. Croatia [867] *new to the list
15. Panama [855] +64
---
17. Sweden [817 779] +38 -decreasing finally

Congrats to Chile, Colombia, Ecuador who have all dropped off the list!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.

[American GenX]

6. USA [1015] +65 -2nd wave hitting a plateau? Lets home the vaccines start decreasing the death rate in about 2-3 weeks as the most at risk folks get the vaccine 1st.

Only AFTER hitting a new high with a surge on top of a surge.  We expect to see a post Christmas surge, with so many people ignoring the warnings and traveling.  Hospitalizations and deaths lag infections.  The vaccine takes weeks between two doses and additional time for the immune system to build 95% immunity, and the roll out is going slower than planned, so as the experts are saying, it's not going to save us from this surge.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/potential-post-holiday-covid-19-surge-catastrophic-impact/story?id=74859998

"As Americans head home for the holidays, health experts are warning of the possible "catastrophic impacts" of a potential coronavirus surge that could hit the United States"

[JGS1980]

Told ya!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported

"More than 186,000 Russians have died due to coronavirus, three times more than previously reported"

This means Russia has 3rd highest number of Covid19 deaths in the world.

Let this serve as notice to Florida, Texas, Lousiana where I strongly suspect numbers are being fudged like crazy. Especially Florida.

The truth comes out, eventually.

JGS

[jrhampt]

It does make you wonder what the actual numbers are.  I remember the October CDC report that estimated around 300k excess US deaths when only around 220k had been officially attributed to COVID.  If we assume all of those 300k should be attributed to COVID that's about a 27% undercount.  Currently worldometers has the US COVID death toll at 347k, so if we assume a consistent 27% undercount - and I suspect deaths were more likely to have been undercounted towards the beginning of the pandemic, so this may not be a valid assumption - we would end up with an adjusted count closer to 440k. 

[habanero]

Despite reports of Sweden having full ICUs in certain regions, the numer of Covid ICU patients in this 2nd wave is (so far) significantly lower than this spring. As of now Sweden in total has 340 in ICU compared to peak of 560 in April. The major problem is more other patients needing ICU care and also less capacity due to staff shortage and a few other reasons. Total number of hospitalized but not in ICU is however higher than this spring - almost 50% higher. Stockholm, the capital area, which had ICU maxed out a few weeks ago has less than half the ICU patients from Covid-19 compared to peak in april. 2nd wave peak 94 about two weeks ago, peak April was 223. The real outlier is the Skaane region which oddly had relatively few cases earlier this year despite being pretty urban and a large immigrant community but now has twice as many in ICU and 8 times as many hospitalizedl.

If ICU numbers are down while hospitalization is up is also partly due to the fact that there isn't room for many more in the ICUs I don't know.

[katsiki]

Told ya!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported

"More than 186,000 Russians have died due to coronavirus, three times more than previously reported"

This means Russia has 3rd highest number of Covid19 deaths in the world.

Let this serve as notice to Florida, Texas, Lousiana where I strongly suspect numbers are being fudged like crazy. Especially Florida.

The truth comes out, eventually.

JGS

Louisiana resident here.  I firmly believe that the numbers are fudged here.  Lots of irregularities parish to parish and anomalies statewide depending on the day of the week, etc.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Told ya!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported

"More than 186,000 Russians have died due to coronavirus, three times more than previously reported"

This means Russia has 3rd highest number of Covid19 deaths in the world.

Let this serve as notice to Florida, Texas, Lousiana where I strongly suspect numbers are being fudged like crazy. Especially Florida.

The truth comes out, eventually.

JGS

Louisiana resident here.  I firmly believe that the numbers are fudged here.  Lots of irregularities parish to parish and anomalies statewide depending on the day of the week, etc.

I would also bet Houston's numbers are undercounted.  What is strange is how random the fatalities have been, recently heard about a younger (low-40's) gal and active member of the local church who passed away 2 weeks after being perfectly healthy.

Then there's also this depressing news about the more infectious UK strain being discovered in rural CO - https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/health/colorado-uk-coronavirus-variant/index.html

[katsiki]

Told ya!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported

"More than 186,000 Russians have died due to coronavirus, three times more than previously reported"

This means Russia has 3rd highest number of Covid19 deaths in the world.

Let this serve as notice to Florida, Texas, Lousiana where I strongly suspect numbers are being fudged like crazy. Especially Florida.

The truth comes out, eventually.

JGS

Louisiana resident here.  I firmly believe that the numbers are fudged here.  Lots of irregularities parish to parish and anomalies statewide depending on the day of the week, etc.

I would also bet Houston's numbers are undercounted.  What is strange is how random the fatalities have been, recently heard about a younger (low-40's) gal and active member of the local church who passed away 2 weeks after being perfectly healthy.

Then there's also this depressing news about the more infectious UK strain being discovered in rural CO - https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/health/colorado-uk-coronavirus-variant/index.html

Many LA folks moved to Houston so the books are probably cooked there too :)

LA politician - 41 and healthy/no underlying conditions - died this week from covid complications. 

[Abe]

People in their 40s can die of covid. I don’t understand that suggests fudging of the data?

[EscapeVelocity2020]

People in their 40s can die of covid. I don’t understand that suggests fudging of the data?

Just for my comment, although I know folks of any age can die of Covid, I'm still boggled as to how differently it affects people.  My Dad (in his mid-70's) has cohorts that tested positive with barely a sniffle.  So it seems as if there is no rhyme or reason as to why it is fatal in cases with young, healthy people.  The correlation with age (and pre-existing conditions, blood type, exposure, etc.) doesn't satisfy my engineering preconceptions of science and math.  Sure, we are still missing less obvious variables, but there is so much data, how can we possibly still feel so 'in the dark' about the outcome after an individual tests positive?

Also, I wouldn't necessarily say 'fudging the numbers' but maybe undercounting the casualties that would otherwise not have happened.  Of course, that just leads to the debate of - 'is a heart attack or stroke a Covid death if they did not die of Covid', is cancer a Covid death if they did not go to the hospital due to fear of Covid, is suicide from isolation a Covid death, etc.

[deborah]

Your dad and his cohort may each have a 15% chance of dying if they get it, so he'll know many people his age who survive, but probably a few who've died. A 40 year old may have a 1% chance of dying, so if he gets it people will be surprised that he died. The majority of people who get it in both age groups survive.

[katsiki]

People in their 40s can die of covid. I don’t understand that suggests fudging of the data?

Sorry - unrelated. 

Prior post mentioned younger person.

I am concerned about the variety of impact.  It bothers me that people have a cavalier attitude about it.  A co-worker and their family has it right now.  Said person still thinks no big deal.  SMH!

[OtherJen]

People in their 40s can die of covid. I don’t understand that suggests fudging of the data?

Sorry - unrelated. 

Prior post mentioned younger person.

I am concerned about the variety of impact.  It bothers me that people have a cavalier attitude about it.  A co-worker and their family has it right now.  Said person still thinks no big deal.  SMH!

Exactly. It seems like this is virul russian roulette. You probably won't die, but there's little way to predict whether you will be one of the people unable to function for a week or more, or one of those who develop long COVID. And we don't yet know the long-term impact of the adverse effects of potentially millions of survivors with lingering effects or disabilities from COVID on society.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/im-a-covid-19-long-hauler-and-an-epidemiologist-heres-how-it-feels-when-symptoms-last-for-months

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
12/31/20 -343233 deaths of 1811128 = 18.95%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/5/20

1. Belgium [1062] +100 -2nd wave another HUGE bump for Belgium
2. Peru [1047] +11
3. Spain [823] +65 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration as well
4. Brazil [757] +13
5. Chile [751] +19
6. Bolivia [747] +5
7. USA [725] +21 death rate accelerating. Each death/million translates to about 300 USA deaths in the previous week.
8. Mexico [720] +22
9. Argentina [717] +54 -still rising rapidly. Technically first wave in Argentina, I think
10. Ecuador [716] +5
11. UK [702]  +20 -2nd wave still accelerating
12. Italy [665] +38 -2nd wave
13. Panama [633] +19
14. Colombia [627] +25
15. France [598] +50 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration
16. Sweden [593] +7 -second wave has begun in Sweden as well as predicted above (If this follows the rest of Europe, it will lead to 12 and then 25, and then 50 in the next 4-5 weeks)
 
***Biggest movers last week were Belgium, Spain, Argentina, and France. Italy and UK close behind. Meanwhile I'm all but certain that on average at least 1000 US citizens will be dying daily for at least the next 6 weeks.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/12/20

1. Belgium [1158] +96
2. Peru [1056] +9
3. Spain [858] +35 -rapid deceleration in pain is encouraging
4. Brazil [769] +12
5. Chile [767]+3
6. Argentina [757] +40 -still rising rapidly.
7. USA [746] +21 again
8. UK [739] +37 -2nd wave still accelerating in the UK
9. Bolivia [751] +4
10. Mexico [741] +21
11. Ecuador [727] +11
12. Italy [711] +46 -2nd wave still accelerating in Italy
13. France [651] +53 -2nd wave
14. Colombia [650] +23 -decelerating in Columbia
15. Panama [633] +18
16. Sweden [604] +11 -second wave accelerating in Sweden continues. I predicted 12 (we got 11 deaths/million this week, if trend continues will be 23-25 or so next week, and then approx 45-50 in the 2 weeks after).

*Note that I'm not including smallish countries less than 4 Million or so. This is fairly arbitrary on my part. The next up and coming country is Czechia with >10 million people and a death rate of >550/million.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/19/20

1. Belgium [1294] +136
2. Peru [1068] +12
3. Spain [899] +41
4. Argentina [801] +44
5. Italy [792] +81 -2nd wave with scary acceleration (Italy all the way up to #5 from #12 in just 1 week!)
6. UK [791] +52 -2nd wave
7. Brazil [786] +17
8. Chile [780] +13
9. USA [774] +28 with concerning acceleration (+>40 next week?). I feel that half the country is trying to mitigate things, so that leads to a lower acceleration rate than the 2nd wave in Europe.
10. Mexico [769] +28
11. Bolivia [756] +5
12. Ecuador [736] +9
13. France [715] +64 -2nd wave with continued acceleration
14. Colombia [677] +27
15. Panama [670] +37 -doubled in rate
*** Sweden [626] +22 [predicted was +23-25. Probably 40+ in another week]
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/26/20

1. Belgium [1385] +91
2. Peru [1079] +11
3. Spain [949] +50 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths (I think)
4. Italy [875] +83 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
5. UK [838] +47 -2nd wave
6. Argentina [836] +35
7. USA [812] +38 -with continued scary acceleration
8. Brazil [805] +19
9. Mexico [800] +31
10. Chile [794] +14
11. France [780 715] +65 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
12. Bolivia [761] +5
13. Ecuador [750] +14
14. Czechia [723] *new to top 15
15. Colombia [705] +28
16. Panama [691] +21
17.*** Sweden [654] +28 [predicted +40, so they are mitigating things and there was lots of press about this in the international news, congrats Sweden on seeing the light] 
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/3/20

1. Belgium [1456] +71 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Peru [1088] +9
3. Spain [979] +30 -2nd wave decelerating
4. Italy [961] +86 -2nd wave still peaking
5. UK [884] +46 -2nd wave still peaking
6. Argentina [863] +27 decelerating
7. USA [844] +32 -still high, relative deceleration may be Thanksgiving artifact, we shall see.
8. Mexico [831] +31 -still rising rapidly, but may have reached peak
9. France [824] +44 -2nd wave decelerating
10. Brazil [819] +14
11. Chile [805] +11
12. Czechia [795] +72 ***Czech Republic acceleration over the last few weeks is very alarming.
13. Ecuador [764] +14
14. Bolivia [764] +4
15. Colombia [726] +21
16. Panama [717] +26
17. Sweden [692] +38 -still accelerating in Sweden.

***Czech Republic's rise is alarming, but this is not an isolated issue. ALL of eastern Europe is getting crushed right now. North Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Slovenia, and Armenia would all make the list above if not for my arbitrary 4 million people population cutoff. Why are these trends never covered in our national news?

*****Russia update. Those liars. Russia documents about the same number of Covid cases as France (2.3 million), but has a death rate that is 3x lower/million. If you buy that, I have an oceanfront property to sell you in Utah.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/10/20

1. Belgium [1516] +60 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Peru [1099] +11
3. Italy [1036] +75 -2nd wave decelerating
4. Spain [1005] +26 -2nd wave decelerating
5. UK [927] +43 -2nd wave still peaking
6. USA [897] +53 -accelerating again
7. Argentina [886] +23 decelerating
8. France [867] +43 -2nd wave decelerating
9. Mexico [862] +31 -same peak
10. Czechia [861] +66 -decelerating a tiny bit
11. Brazil [840] +21
12. Chile [822] +17
13. Ecuador [780] +16
14. Bolivia [767] +3
15. Bulgaria [763] *New to list
-----
18. Sweden [726] +34 -2nd wave deceleration noted. ICU capacity in Stockholm is 99% per the BBC.
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/17/20

1. Belgium [1574] +58 -2nd wave decelerating
2. Italy [1113] +77 -2nd wave still high
3. Peru [1111] +12
4. Spain [1039] +34 -2nd wave continues
5. UK [971] +44 -2nd wave still peaking
6. USA [950] +63 -2nd wave acceleration continues with no signs of slowing down
7. Czechia [936] +75 -staying very high
8. Argentina [911] +25
9. France [908] +41 -2nd wave slowly decelerating
10. Bulgaria [895] +132 !!! Eastern Europe continues to get hit very hard right now.
11. Mexico [894] +32 -very steady in Mexico
12. Brazil [863] +23
13. Chile [834] +12
14. Panama [791] *back on list
15. Ecuador [783] +3
16. Hungary [781] *heating up and soon to join the list
17. Sweden [779] +53 -ICU capacity has been maxed out, leading to huge increase in the last week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/25/20

1. Belgium [1639] +60
2. Italy [1173] +60
3. Peru [1124] +13 *Why do we NEVER here any media reports about Peru? Home to 33 million people.
4. Spain [1065] +26
5. UK [1023] +20 -still rising
6. USA [1015] +65 -2nd wave hitting a plateau? Lets home the vaccines start decreasing the death rate in about 2-3 weeks as the most at risk folks get the vaccine 1st.
7. Bulgaria [1014] +119
8. Czechia [1013] +77
9. France [953] +45
10. Mexico [935] +41
11. Argentina [934] +23
12. Hungary [915 ] +134 ***Top riser. Eastern Europe is getting decimated.
13. Brazil [891] +28
14. Croatia [867] *new to the list
15. Panama [855] +64
---
17. Sweden [817 779] +38 -decreasing finally

Congrats to Chile, Colombia, Ecuador who have all dropped off the list!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 12/31/20

1. Belgium [1674] +35
2. Italy [1227] +54
3. Peru [1133] +9
4. Bulgaria [1086] +72
5. Spain [1084] +19
6. UK [1080] +57
7. Czechia [1080] +67
8. USA [1059] +44
9. France [989] +36
10. Hungary [988] +73
11. Mexico [964] +29
12. Croatia [958] +91 *biggest riser this week
13. Argentina [951] +17
14. Panama [914] +59
15. Brazil [910] +19
---
18. Sweden [861] +44

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250]
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.
12/31/20 -343233 [16962]