Author Topic: Coronavirus Weekly Update  (Read 121479 times)

katsiki

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #450 on: March 05, 2021, 05:17:43 PM »
Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others?  I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.

Preliminary results and every other vaccine for everything else say yes, but we won't know *for sure* for a bit longer.

-W

What I saw was 66% reduction in spread once fully vaccinated. Can't remember where I read that, though.

Thanks.  Well, that's great news in either case then!  I guess I am still stuck in the 'novel' phase where there were so many unknowns.

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #451 on: March 05, 2021, 09:23:19 PM »
That was from Israel's transmission rate since they have a high vaccine percentage at this point. However, they have plateaued just like we have from the recent peak.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #452 on: March 06, 2021, 08:47:28 AM »
Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others?  I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.

Preliminary results and every other vaccine for everything else say yes, but we won't know *for sure* for a bit longer.

-W

What I saw was 66% reduction in spread once fully vaccinated. Can't remember where I read that, though.

Thanks.  Well, that's great news in either case then!  I guess I am still stuck in the 'novel' phase where there were so many unknowns.

Neither of thise points of view are currently supported by enough data to draw conclusions.  There are vaccines that exist which that prevent symptoms of a disease without preventing transmission (like the vaccine for whooping cough for example).  We don't know yet if there is reduction of spread of covid from vaccination.

We do know that people who are fully vaccinated can still get covid, and the best data available indicates that if you have covid you can spread it to others.  The vaccines have been proven to be great at preventing serious illness/death from developing due to the disease.  That's it so far.  We are still in the novel phase of this disease, no matter how much we want solid answers to these questions.

JoJo

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #453 on: March 07, 2021, 08:29:24 PM »
Stats for today (Sunday) on worldometers shows lowest number of daily new cases in USA since September! 

katsiki

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #454 on: March 08, 2021, 02:28:29 PM »
Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others?  I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.

Preliminary results and every other vaccine for everything else say yes, but we won't know *for sure* for a bit longer.

-W

What I saw was 66% reduction in spread once fully vaccinated. Can't remember where I read that, though.

Thanks.  Well, that's great news in either case then!  I guess I am still stuck in the 'novel' phase where there were so many unknowns.

Neither of thise points of view are currently supported by enough data to draw conclusions.  There are vaccines that exist which that prevent symptoms of a disease without preventing transmission (like the vaccine for whooping cough for example).  We don't know yet if there is reduction of spread of covid from vaccination.

We do know that people who are fully vaccinated can still get covid, and the best data available indicates that if you have covid you can spread it to others.  The vaccines have been proven to be great at preventing serious illness/death from developing due to the disease.  That's it so far.  We are still in the novel phase of this disease, no matter how much we want solid answers to these questions.


Whomp, whomp, whomp!  :)

Ok, thanks for the reality check.

JGS1980

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #455 on: March 11, 2021, 10:56:20 AM »
USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
12/31/20 -343233 deaths of 1811128 = 18.95%
1/7/2021 -361900 deaths of 1887970 = 19.17%
1/14/2021 -385503 deaths of 1983691 = 19.43%
1/21/2021 -406536 deaths of 2080009 = 19.55%
1/28/2021 -429870 deaths of 2180867 = 19.71%
2/4/2021 -451454 deaths of 2273515 = 19.86%
2/11/21 -472450 deaths of 2359200 = 20.02%
2/18/21 -490875 deaths of 2434048 = 20.17%
2/25/21 -506121 deaths of 2499964 = 20.25%
3/4/21 -518380 deaths of 2562739 = 20.23% *another inflection point?
3/11/21 -529469 deaths of 2623286 = 20.18%

US and Worldwide death data is taken from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center site.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
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Taking a break from the wall of text, look above if you want the week to week country comparison details

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/11/2021

1. Belgium [1851] +25
2. UK [1686] +67
3. Czechia [1658] +89
4. Italy [1535] +41
5. Portugal [1462] +138 *WHOA Highest riser of the week
6. USA [1455] +63 -still damn high consideration our vaccination progress. +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1394] +64
8. Bulgaria [1378] +45
9. Spain [1362] +71
10. Mexico [1308] +65
11. Peru [1289] +39
12. Croatia [1287] +39
13. Panama [1274] +42
14. France [1231] +44
15. Sweden [1220] +33

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/18/2021

1. Belgium [1875] +24
2. UK [1753] +67
3. Czechia [1748] +90 *biggest gain of the week
4. Italy [1571] +36
5. Portugal [1548] +86 *wave has crested in Portugal, but trend shows it will rise to #4 by next week
6. USA [1513] +58 -beginning to drop a bit!!! +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1455] +61
8. Spain [1418] +56
9. Bulgaria [1409] +31
10. Mexico [1364] +48
11. Peru [1332] +43
12. Croatia [1320] +33
13. Panama [1302] +28
14. France [1272] +41
15. Sweden [1243] +23

*very little country to country movement this week. Overall trends are encouraging for once. UK and Czech Republic threatening Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/25/2021

1. Belgium [1892] +17
2. Czechia [1850] +102 *biggest riser again.
3. UK [1792] +39 *Nice Drop
4. Italy [1600] +29
5. Portugal [1590] +42
6. USA [1562] +49 -continues slow drop +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1521] +66
8. Spain [1464] +47
9. Bulgaria [1450] +31
10. Mexico [1408] +44
11. Peru [1373] +41
12. Croatia [1342] +22
13. Panama [1328] +26
14. France [1305] +33
15. Sweden [1262] +29

*Overall trends remain encouraging. UK and Czech Republic continue to threaten Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/4/2021

1. Czechia [1970] +120 *takes the top spot
2. Belgium [1907] +15 -congrats to Belgium with its relative decrease. This took a long time to achieve.
3. UK [1821] +29 *continues to come down in the UK
4. Italy [1639] +39
5. Portugal [1617] +27
6. Hungary [1605] +84
7. USA [1600] +38 -continues to decelerate. So Texas opens up again (what?)
8. Bulgaria [1506] +56
9. Spain [1502] +38
10. Mexico [1448] +40
11. Peru [1415] +42
12. Slovakia [1384] ***new to list
13. Croatia [1361] +21
14. Panama [1350] +22
15. France [1339] +34

17. Brazil [1215]

*Overall trends remain kind of similar to last week except eastern Europe continues to get destroyed.

**Watch out for Brazil who has had more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate. This despite suspected undercounting. Their President Bolsonaro has doubled down on Hydroxychlorquine purchases instead of securing Covid vaccines.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/11/2021

1. Czechia [2110] +140 *biggest riser again
2. Belgium [1922] +15 *in control in Belgium
3. UK [1837] +16 *also in control
4. Hungary [1711] +106
5. Italy [1675] +36
6. Portugal [1635] +18 *slowing down in Portugal
7. USA [1632] +32 -continues to decelerate, slowly.
8. Bulgaria [1591] +85. Soon to surpass USA.
9. Spain [1539] +37
10. Slovakia [1509] +125, high bump in eastern Europe
11. Mexico [1482] +34
12. Peru [1452] +37
13. Croatia [1379] +18
14. France [1374] +35
15. Panama [1366] +16
17. Brazil [1268] +53 with concerning acceleration. Manaus strain is a mess.

*Watch out for Brazil who continues to have more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250]
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.
12/31/20 -343233 [16962]
1/07/2021 -361900 [18667] -New Peak again. Sadly these are just abstract numbers in my head right now. Not sinking in that 4K Americans died just yesterday.
1/14/2021 -385503 [23603] -huge bump in the last week!!! Way worse than NYC in the Spring of 2020. Avg 3300+ deaths per day.
1/21/2021 -406536 [21033] -still ridiculously high. Should eventually come down with national infection trends and vaccine rollouts.
1/28/2021 -429870 [23334] -yup, still high. Since infections till death takes about 2-6 weeks, and infections appear to be coming down nationwide now (with hot pockets, of course). I suspect deaths should begin to come down in the next 2-6 weeks. Hopefully 2 weeks.
2/4/2021 -451454 [21584] -continues to average >20K deaths per week in the USA. Hopefully begins to truly trend down this upcoming week, following the case data.
2/11/21 -472450 [20996] -no trending down as of yet. I'm beginning to get worried that people are just testing a lot less, thus case counts are going down but deaths are not. Are we taking our feet off the gas?
2/18/21 -490875 [18425] -okay, seeing some movement here in the right direction. Hospitalizations are down to 63K from 134K just 30 days ago.
2/25/21 -506121 [15246] -nice progression. Also, down to 54K hospitalizations. Daily cases in US seem to be leveling off at 50K-75K per day over the last 10 days after a steep drop over the holidays.
3/4/21 -518380 [12259] -deaths still coming down. 45K hospitalizations is down too. Daily cases have stabilized at somewhere between 48K and 75K over the last 18 days. Beware the next wave.
3/11/21 -529469 [11089] -slowly dropping still. Daily cases 44-65K per day.

JGS

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #456 on: March 11, 2021, 12:39:30 PM »
Texas (and other less populated red states) will help get those numbers back up for ya!  Seriously, has any other country in history ever prematurely declared that the pandemic is over, in the middle of a pandemic?

bacchi

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #457 on: March 11, 2021, 12:57:18 PM »
Texas (and other less populated red states) will help get those numbers back up for ya!  Seriously, has any other country in history ever prematurely declared that the pandemic is over, in the middle of a pandemic?

Texas has one thing going for it: the weather. It's not AC season yet and winter is past. People are more likely to spend time outdoors, which helps mitigate stupid decisions.


waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #458 on: March 11, 2021, 01:08:10 PM »
People were saying the same thing about Florida 6 months ago, but their performance has been about the same as everyone else.

We'll see in a few weeks.

-W

jehovasfitness23

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #459 on: March 11, 2021, 02:20:14 PM »
Good ole MD gov is really opening up the state saying metrics warrant it... and yet metrics i believe are same as early Fall when things were still less open LOL

at least he's keeping the mask mandate

Paper Chaser

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #460 on: March 11, 2021, 05:02:08 PM »
Good ole MD gov is really opening up the state saying metrics warrant it... and yet metrics i believe are same as early Fall when things were still less open LOL

at least he's keeping the mask mandate

The daily numbers may be similar, but the situation is pretty different than it was in the fall. There are more people with some level of immunity now thanks to natural exposure and vaccinating those most at risk. It's worth going to great lengths to try and avoid widespread hospitalization and death, but the risk/reward calculus changes if the people that were most likely to get very sick or die have all been vaccinated. That risk has been greatly diminished in recent months.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2021, 05:03:56 PM by Paper Chaser »

Longwaytogo

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #461 on: March 11, 2021, 06:28:49 PM »
Good ole MD gov is really opening up the state saying metrics warrant it... and yet metrics i believe are same as early Fall when things were still less open LOL

at least he's keeping the mask mandate

The daily numbers may be similar, but the situation is pretty different than it was in the fall. There are more people with some level of immunity now thanks to natural exposure and vaccinating those most at risk. It's worth going to great lengths to try and avoid widespread hospitalization and death, but the risk/reward calculus changes if the people that were most likely to get very sick or die have all been vaccinated. That risk has been greatly diminished in recent months.

And the assumption in the Fall was that numbers would be trending upwards (which they did) and now the assumption is that they'll be trending down....which hopefully they will !!

I'm in MD and by most metrics we've actually fared pretty well with Covid I think.

jehovasfitness23

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #462 on: March 12, 2021, 05:50:46 AM »
Good ole MD gov is really opening up the state saying metrics warrant it... and yet metrics i believe are same as early Fall when things were still less open LOL

at least he's keeping the mask mandate

The daily numbers may be similar, but the situation is pretty different than it was in the fall. There are more people with some level of immunity now thanks to natural exposure and vaccinating those most at risk. It's worth going to great lengths to try and avoid widespread hospitalization and death, but the risk/reward calculus changes if the people that were most likely to get very sick or die have all been vaccinated. That risk has been greatly diminished in recent months.

True, but the UK and South African variants weren't here at the time either, both reported in MD within the last 4 weeks or so.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #463 on: March 12, 2021, 03:19:22 PM »
Good ole MD gov is really opening up the state saying metrics warrant it... and yet metrics i believe are same as early Fall when things were still less open LOL

at least he's keeping the mask mandate

The daily numbers may be similar, but the situation is pretty different than it was in the fall. There are more people with some level of immunity now thanks to natural exposure and vaccinating those most at risk. It's worth going to great lengths to try and avoid widespread hospitalization and death, but the risk/reward calculus changes if the people that were most likely to get very sick or die have all been vaccinated. That risk has been greatly diminished in recent months.

True, but the UK and South African variants weren't here at the time either, both reported in MD within the last 4 weeks or so.

Yeah, but the vaccines have had some efficacy against the various strains in everything that I've read, so I'm not sure the new variants really change the risk/reward calculation very much. We're still reducing the risk of the worst outcomes at a pretty fast pace, even if the vaccines don't work quite as well on the variants. Looks like Maryland currently has about 12% of the state's population fully vaccinated and over 20% with one dose (again focusing on those who were most likely to see the worst outcomes). They're distributing about 35k doses of vaccine per day. Add the people that have already been exposed, and you get less community spread in addition to lower risk of serious outcomes.

JoJo

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #464 on: March 15, 2021, 09:16:09 AM »
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday.  7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction!  Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.

In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates. 

JGS1980

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #465 on: March 15, 2021, 09:47:19 AM »
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday.  7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction!  Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.

In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.

I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?

The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.

jrhampt

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #466 on: March 15, 2021, 10:07:06 AM »
Also in international news, any thoughts on the latest Italy lockdowns and talk of a third wave in Europe?

Glenstache

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #467 on: March 15, 2021, 10:13:59 AM »
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday.  7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction!  Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.

In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.

I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?

The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.
https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/daily-deaths-during-coronavirus-pandemic-by-state


JoJo

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #468 on: March 15, 2021, 10:29:54 AM »


I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?

The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.

Source:  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm    I only see stats thru Sept 2020, so this analysis is comparing Jan-Sept 2020 to Jan-Sept 2019

For all states, the average excess mort Jan-Sept 2020 was 15% over same period 2019  (note: I know from more complete tables full year 2020 is about 17.8% higher than full year 2019).   As of this September, Texas was 19% and Florida was 16% over prior year. 

The states sorted worst to best in excess mortality % as of September:     

   Deaths J-S 2019   Deaths J- S 2020   Increase #   Increase %
NEW YORK   116,072   157,007   40,935   35%
NEW JERSEY   55,759   73,923   18,164   33%
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA   3,562   4,542   980   28%
LOUISIANA   34,084   41,932   7,848   23%
ARIZONA   45,233   55,363   10,130   22%
TEXAS   150,504   179,067   28,563   19%
SOUTH CAROLINA   37,953   45,015   7,062   19%
MISSISSIPPI   24,450   28,955   4,505   18%
MASSACHUSETTS   43,620   51,431   7,811   18%
CONNECTICUT   23,660   27,760   4,100   17%
GEORGIA   63,646   74,619   10,973   17%
MARYLAND   37,613   43,972   6,359   17%
ILLINOIS   80,666   94,128   13,462   17%
FLORIDA   154,760   179,177   24,417   16%
DELAWARE   6,902   7,918   1,016   15%
MICHIGAN   73,326   83,997   10,671   15%
ALABAMA   40,492   46,212   5,720   14%
COLORADO   29,308   33,201   3,893   13%
CALIFORNIA   201,129   227,340   26,211   13%
NEVADA   19,153   21,490   2,337   12%
INDIANA   48,877   54,825   5,948   12%
VIRGINIA   52,442   58,620   6,178   12%
RHODE ISLAND   7,673   8,573   900   12%
WYOMING   3,768   4,173   405   11%
PENNSYLVANIA   99,260   109,621   10,361   10%
TENNESSEE   53,409   58,977   5,568   10%
ARKANSAS   24,512   27,028   2,516   10%
NEW MEXICO   14,609   16,087   1,478   10%
OHIO   91,759   99,932   8,173   9%
MINNESOTA   33,548   36,529   2,981   9%
MISSOURI   46,668   50,723   4,055   9%
IDAHO   10,783   11,694   911   8%
UTAH   13,960   15,114   1,154   8%
IOWA   22,800   24,623   1,823   8%
VERMONT   4,343   4,689   346   8%
NEW HAMPSHIRE   9,346   10,080   734   8%
WISCONSIN   39,972   43,097   3,125   8%
KENTUCKY   36,524   39,148   2,624   7%
OKLAHOMA   30,444   32,578   2,134   7%
NORTH CAROLINA   71,374   76,325   4,951   7%
KANSAS   20,563   21,947   1,384   7%
WEST VIRGINIA   17,604   18,701   1,097   6%
WASHINGTON   43,438   46,068   2,630   6%
NORTH DAKOTA   4,972   5,267   295   6%
NEBRASKA   12,570   13,284   714   6%
SOUTH DAKOTA   6,154   6,456   302   5%
OREGON   27,707   29,055   1,348   5%
ALASKA   3,445   3,607   162   5%
MONTANA   7,825   8,072   247   3%
MAINE   11,211   11,554   343   3%
HAWAII   8,816   8,948   132   1%
Total   2,122,268   2,432,444   310,176   15%

« Last Edit: March 15, 2021, 11:03:52 AM by JoJo »

Paper Chaser

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #469 on: March 15, 2021, 10:52:56 AM »
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday.  7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction!  Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.

In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.

I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?

The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/405101-2020-death-data-paints-grim-picture-of-covid-19s-human-toll

TLDR: In 2019 Florida saw 9.7 deaths per 1000 residents. In 2020 that number grew to 11.1 deaths per 1000 residents. Florida probably had 25-30k deaths due to covid, and their official number for 2020 calendar year was 21890

JoJo

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #470 on: March 15, 2021, 11:02:40 AM »

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/405101-2020-death-data-paints-grim-picture-of-covid-19s-human-toll

TLDR: In 2019 Florida saw 9.7 deaths per 1000 residents. In 2020 that number grew to 11.1 deaths per 1000 residents. Florida probably had 25-30k deaths due to covid, and their official number for 2020 calendar year was 21890

OK, so (11.1-9.7)/9.7 = total 14.43% excess mortality.   

For all states:  (source https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm as of this morning)

(3362725-2854838)/2854838 = 17.8% excess mortality nationwide

By the River

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #471 on: March 15, 2021, 11:08:00 AM »
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday.  7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction!  Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.

In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.

I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?

The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/405101-2020-death-data-paints-grim-picture-of-covid-19s-human-toll

TLDR: In 2019 Florida saw 9.7 deaths per 1000 residents. In 2020 that number grew to 11.1 deaths per 1000 residents. Florida probably had 25-30k deaths due to covid, and their official number for 2020 calendar year was 21890

Even Saturday's New York Times stated that Florida's death rate was average or less.
           "Yet Florida’s death rate is no worse than the national average, and better than that of some other states that imposed more restrictions, despite its large numbers of retirees"   https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/13/us/coronavirus-florida-booming.html

This is with having the second highest percentage of people over 65 (by 0.1%) and the highest percentage by far of people over 75. 


Paper Chaser

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #472 on: March 15, 2021, 11:38:26 AM »
The AP also had an interesting article this week about the impact that different government policies have had between states, and it's hardly cut/dry:

https://apnews.com/article/public-health-health-florida-coronavirus-pandemic-ron-desantis-889df3826d4da96447b329f524c33047

katsiki

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #473 on: March 15, 2021, 12:50:23 PM »
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday.  7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction!  Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.

In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.

I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?

The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/405101-2020-death-data-paints-grim-picture-of-covid-19s-human-toll

TLDR: In 2019 Florida saw 9.7 deaths per 1000 residents. In 2020 that number grew to 11.1 deaths per 1000 residents. Florida probably had 25-30k deaths due to covid, and their official number for 2020 calendar year was 21890

Even Saturday's New York Times stated that Florida's death rate was average or less.
           "Yet Florida’s death rate is no worse than the national average, and better than that of some other states that imposed more restrictions, despite its large numbers of retirees"   https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/13/us/coronavirus-florida-booming.html

This is with having the second highest percentage of people over 65 (by 0.1%) and the highest percentage by far of people over 75.

Interesting info gang.  Thanks!

P.S. Maybe it is the sun and sunscreen helping out the senior citizens in FL :)

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #474 on: March 15, 2021, 01:49:19 PM »
You can tell a different story about every state/region (ie NY was hard hit at the very start when nobody knew WTF was going on and the medical system got overwhelmed at least somewhat, Cuomo sent infected people back to nursing homes, etc) so I'm not sure it's fair to compare state to state. There are different risk levels (FL is super high, UT super low) and people travel between states, too, of course.

That said, it's pretty unclear that any official policies helped a lot, if we're looking at things like mask mandates and shutting down restaurants. I don't think anyone anywhere was holding big mass events (except Sturgis, but even that didn't seem to do that much damage in South Dakota) so holding off on those might have helped.

-W

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #475 on: March 15, 2021, 10:24:42 PM »
Here’s a study (not peer reviewed) from MIT and Harvard suggesting MALS mandates helped slightly. It’s not that great a study, but probably as good as we can get to a systematic analysis of the question given how variable the response was across the states.
I’ll be interested to see people’s analysis of the methods used, and if it gets published eventually.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.19.21250132v3.article-info

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #476 on: March 16, 2021, 07:24:26 AM »
Why did they report cases and deaths in standard deviations and hospitalizations in percentage point change?

Something very odd is happening there, too. A half a standard deviation is a lot. 2 percent is tiny. How are the masks having so little effect on hospitalizations and such a large effect on deaths?

-W

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #477 on: March 16, 2021, 09:02:15 PM »
Here’s a study (not peer reviewed) from MIT and Harvard suggesting MALS mandates helped slightly. It’s not that great a study, but probably as good as we can get to a systematic analysis of the question given how variable the response was across the states.
I’ll be interested to see people’s analysis of the methods used, and if it gets published eventually.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.19.21250132v3.article-info
It's strange they start measuring for effects on deaths, hospitalizations, and cases at day zero. Incubation would put any effects on cases out possibly a week (or more depending on testing backlogs unless the states backdated the results to the specimen-collect date), hospitalizations should lag by maybe 2 weeks, and deaths by 3 weeks. Moving the start point to the right for each of those metrics on their chart might negate much of the effect they are measuring. Or maybe I'm misunderstanding what they did wrt day zero.

JGS1980

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #478 on: March 18, 2021, 11:53:04 AM »
It's that time of the week again...

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
12/31/20 -343233 deaths of 1811128 = 18.95%
1/7/2021 -361900 deaths of 1887970 = 19.17%
1/14/2021 -385503 deaths of 1983691 = 19.43%
1/21/2021 -406536 deaths of 2080009 = 19.55%
1/28/2021 -429870 deaths of 2180867 = 19.71%
2/4/2021 -451454 deaths of 2273515 = 19.86%
2/11/21 -472450 deaths of 2359200 = 20.02%
2/18/21 -490875 deaths of 2434048 = 20.17%
2/25/21 -506121 deaths of 2499964 = 20.25%
3/4/21 -518380 deaths of 2562739 = 20.23% *another inflection point?
3/11/21 -529469 deaths of 2623286 = 20.18%
3/18/21 -538269 deaths of 2683639 = 20.06%

US and Worldwide death data is taken from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center site.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taking a break from the wall of text, look above if you want the week to week country comparison details

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/11/2021

1. Belgium [1851] +25
2. UK [1686] +67
3. Czechia [1658] +89
4. Italy [1535] +41
5. Portugal [1462] +138 *WHOA Highest riser of the week
6. USA [1455] +63 -still damn high consideration our vaccination progress. +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1394] +64
8. Bulgaria [1378] +45
9. Spain [1362] +71
10. Mexico [1308] +65
11. Peru [1289] +39
12. Croatia [1287] +39
13. Panama [1274] +42
14. France [1231] +44
15. Sweden [1220] +33

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/18/2021

1. Belgium [1875] +24
2. UK [1753] +67
3. Czechia [1748] +90 *biggest gain of the week
4. Italy [1571] +36
5. Portugal [1548] +86 *wave has crested in Portugal, but trend shows it will rise to #4 by next week
6. USA [1513] +58 -beginning to drop a bit!!! +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1455] +61
8. Spain [1418] +56
9. Bulgaria [1409] +31
10. Mexico [1364] +48
11. Peru [1332] +43
12. Croatia [1320] +33
13. Panama [1302] +28
14. France [1272] +41
15. Sweden [1243] +23

*very little country to country movement this week. Overall trends are encouraging for once. UK and Czech Republic threatening Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/25/2021

1. Belgium [1892] +17
2. Czechia [1850] +102 *biggest riser again.
3. UK [1792] +39 *Nice Drop
4. Italy [1600] +29
5. Portugal [1590] +42
6. USA [1562] +49 -continues slow drop +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1521] +66
8. Spain [1464] +47
9. Bulgaria [1450] +31
10. Mexico [1408] +44
11. Peru [1373] +41
12. Croatia [1342] +22
13. Panama [1328] +26
14. France [1305] +33
15. Sweden [1262] +29

*Overall trends remain encouraging. UK and Czech Republic continue to threaten Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/4/2021

1. Czechia [1970] +120 *takes the top spot
2. Belgium [1907] +15 -congrats to Belgium with its relative decrease. This took a long time to achieve.
3. UK [1821] +29 *continues to come down in the UK
4. Italy [1639] +39
5. Portugal [1617] +27
6. Hungary [1605] +84
7. USA [1600] +38 -continues to decelerate. So Texas opens up again (what?)
8. Bulgaria [1506] +56
9. Spain [1502] +38
10. Mexico [1448] +40
11. Peru [1415] +42
12. Slovakia [1384] ***new to list
13. Croatia [1361] +21
14. Panama [1350] +22
15. France [1339] +34

17. Brazil [1215]

*Overall trends remain kind of similar to last week except eastern Europe continues to get destroyed.

**Watch out for Brazil who has had more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate. This despite suspected undercounting. Their President Bolsonaro has doubled down on Hydroxychlorquine purchases instead of securing Covid vaccines.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/11/2021

1. Czechia [2110] +140 *biggest riser again
2. Belgium [1922] +15 *in control in Belgium
3. UK [1837] +16 *also in control
4. Hungary [1711] +106
5. Italy [1675] +36
6. Portugal [1635] +18 *slowing down in Portugal
7. USA [1632] +32 -continues to decelerate, slowly.
8. Bulgaria [1591] +85. Soon to surpass USA.
9. Spain [1539] +37
10. Slovakia [1509] +125, high bump in eastern Europe
11. Mexico [1482] +34
12. Peru [1452] +37
13. Croatia [1379] +18
14. France [1374] +35
15. Panama [1366] +16
17. Brazil [1268] +53 with concerning acceleration. Manaus strain is a mess.

*Watch out for Brazil who continues to have more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/18/2021

1. Czechia [2249] +139 *no sign of slowing down in Czechia
2. Belgium [1944] +22
3. UK [1848] +11
4. Hungary [1828] +116 *wow Eastern Europe. No mention of this in the US National Press that I've seen. We do like navel gazing, don't we?
5. Italy [1719] +44 *uptick in Italy
6. Bulgaria [1695] +104. Soon to surpass USA.
7. USA [1657] +25 -continues to decelerate, slowly.
8. Portugal [1645] +10
9. Slovakia [1614] +106, again eastern Europe
10. Spain [1556] +17
11. Mexico [1508] +26
12. Peru [1487] +25
13. France [1402] +28
14. Croatia [1401] +22
15. Panama [1379] +33
16. Brazil [1335] +67 with concerning acceleration. Leader in deaths worldwide this week. Going to be rising up the ranks over the next 6-8 weeks. Brazilian president pushing hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin instead of vaccinations for Covid19. Go Figure.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250]
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.
12/31/20 -343233 [16962]
1/07/2021 -361900 [18667] -New Peak again. Sadly these are just abstract numbers in my head right now. Not sinking in that 4K Americans died just yesterday.
1/14/2021 -385503 [23603] -huge bump in the last week!!! Way worse than NYC in the Spring of 2020. Avg 3300+ deaths per day.
1/21/2021 -406536 [21033] -still ridiculously high. Should eventually come down with national infection trends and vaccine rollouts.
1/28/2021 -429870 [23334] -yup, still high. Since infections till death takes about 2-6 weeks, and infections appear to be coming down nationwide now (with hot pockets, of course). I suspect deaths should begin to come down in the next 2-6 weeks. Hopefully 2 weeks.
2/4/2021 -451454 [21584] -continues to average >20K deaths per week in the USA. Hopefully begins to truly trend down this upcoming week, following the case data.
2/11/21 -472450 [20996] -no trending down as of yet. I'm beginning to get worried that people are just testing a lot less, thus case counts are going down but deaths are not. Are we taking our feet off the gas?
2/18/21 -490875 [18425] -okay, seeing some movement here in the right direction. Hospitalizations are down to 63K from 134K just 30 days ago.
2/25/21 -506121 [15246] -nice progression. Also, down to 54K hospitalizations. Daily cases in US seem to be leveling off at 50K-75K per day over the last 10 days after a steep drop over the holidays.
3/4/21 -518380 [12259] -deaths still coming down. 45K hospitalizations is down too. Daily cases have stabilized at somewhere between 48K and 75K over the last 18 days. Beware the next wave.
3/11/21 -529469 [11089] -slowly dropping still. Daily cases 44-65K.
3/18/21 -538269 [8800] -huge step in the last week. Daily cases 45-55K or so.

JGS

bigblock440

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #479 on: March 18, 2021, 09:46:50 PM »
Why did they report cases and deaths in standard deviations and hospitalizations in percentage point change?

Something very odd is happening there, too. A half a standard deviation is a lot. 2 percent is tiny. How are the masks having so little effect on hospitalizations and such a large effect on deaths?

-W

Possible reduction in viral load being received, allowing people's immune systems to get a leg up on it?

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #480 on: March 19, 2021, 07:32:00 AM »
Why did they report cases and deaths in standard deviations and hospitalizations in percentage point change?

Something very odd is happening there, too. A half a standard deviation is a lot. 2 percent is tiny. How are the masks having so little effect on hospitalizations and such a large effect on deaths?

-W

Possible reduction in viral load being received, allowing people's immune systems to get a leg up on it?

Sure, but why wouldn't that reduce deaths as well? Hospitalizations and deaths have been almost perfectly correlated.

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #481 on: March 19, 2021, 10:35:58 AM »
Why did they report cases and deaths in standard deviations and hospitalizations in percentage point change?

Something very odd is happening there, too. A half a standard deviation is a lot. 2 percent is tiny. How are the masks having so little effect on hospitalizations and such a large effect on deaths?

-W

Possible reduction in viral load being received, allowing people's immune systems to get a leg up on it?

Sure, but why wouldn't that reduce deaths as well? Hospitalizations and deaths have been almost perfectly correlated.

-W

Walt, are you looking at the reported covid deaths?  if you look at the overall death rate in California . . . excess mortality has plummeted to levels a lot lower than usual (since the 27th of Jan they've been at or below average).  If you look at the same in Florida excess mortality is much higher than usual since December.

https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/daily-deaths-during-coronavirus-pandemic-by-state

JoJo

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #482 on: March 19, 2021, 10:42:28 AM »
Looks like US is starting to plateau.  Discouraging that NY, NJ, and other northern states seeing a sizeable increase lately.

Israel numbers keep getting better every day.  I'm reading that as of March 16th, 50% of population has both doses + another 10% has one shot.

Brazil and many European countries having crazy amounts of new cases.  UK is doing a good job.  Curious why the contagious "UK-variant" we've been told we need to be so afraid of hasn't spread all over the UK (not sure of the severity of lockdowns there, which may explain it)

Dollar Slice

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #483 on: March 19, 2021, 11:01:52 AM »
Curious why the contagious "UK-variant" we've been told we need to be so afraid of hasn't spread all over the UK (not sure of the severity of lockdowns there, which may explain it)

The UK variant is just about 100% of cases there now, it completely took over. They've given at least one vaccine dose to almost 40% of the population, which explains part of their recent success. They also had a very strict lockdown over the winter. They also had a lot of cases and a lot of deaths compared to many other places... the UK is not a success story overall.

Here in NYC we have two of the contagious variants competing against each other and we're up to (as of March 7th I think, the data lags reality) two-thirds of all cases being from these variants. They are VERY contagious and out-perform the old COVID pretty quickly. I have a friend in the UK who caught the variant from someone while they were both wearing masks and were in the same room for about two minutes (just popping by to drop something off). The person he caught it from was asymptomatic but got sick a few hours later. It's nuts.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #484 on: March 19, 2021, 11:17:40 AM »
The UK variant hit the UK hard before Christmas.  Their numbers were going down nicely and then WHAM!   That was a major factor in the decision to delay the second dose to a 12 week interval, to make more vaccine available for first doses.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #485 on: March 19, 2021, 01:56:56 PM »
Why did they report cases and deaths in standard deviations and hospitalizations in percentage point change?

Something very odd is happening there, too. A half a standard deviation is a lot. 2 percent is tiny. How are the masks having so little effect on hospitalizations and such a large effect on deaths?

-W

Possible reduction in viral load being received, allowing people's immune systems to get a leg up on it?

Sure, but why wouldn't that reduce deaths as well? Hospitalizations and deaths have been almost perfectly correlated.

-W

Walt, are you looking at the reported covid deaths?  if you look at the overall death rate in California . . . excess mortality has plummeted to levels a lot lower than usual (since the 27th of Jan they've been at or below average).  If you look at the same in Florida excess mortality is much higher than usual since December.

https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/daily-deaths-during-coronavirus-pandemic-by-state

Yes, and the case of Florida data science Rebekah Jones doesn't inspire confidence in the state's case reporting.

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #486 on: March 19, 2021, 04:31:44 PM »
Nothing about Florida OR that lady inspires much confidence.

-W

marty998

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #487 on: March 20, 2021, 01:50:58 AM »
Also in international news, any thoughts on the latest Italy lockdowns and talk of a third wave in Europe?

Yeah geopolitics rears its ugly head. They're putting up export controls left, right and centre on all the vaccines we've ordered.

Fortunately we are not in dire straights, but some of our poorer neighbouring countries who were in line to receive donated vaccines from us will now no longer get them.

JGS1980

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #488 on: March 25, 2021, 10:35:15 AM »
USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
12/31/20 -343233 deaths of 1811128 = 18.95%
1/7/2021 -361900 deaths of 1887970 = 19.17%
1/14/2021 -385503 deaths of 1983691 = 19.43%
1/21/2021 -406536 deaths of 2080009 = 19.55%
1/28/2021 -429870 deaths of 2180867 = 19.71%
2/4/2021 -451454 deaths of 2273515 = 19.86%
2/11/21 -472450 deaths of 2359200 = 20.02%
2/18/21 -490875 deaths of 2434048 = 20.17%
2/25/21 -506121 deaths of 2499964 = 20.25%
3/4/21 -518380 deaths of 2562739 = 20.23% *another inflection point?
3/11/21 -529469 deaths of 2623286 = 20.18%
3/18/21 -538269 deaths of 2683639 = 20.06%
3/25/21 -545357 deaths of 2746581 = 19.86%

US and Worldwide death data is taken from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center site.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taking a break from the wall of text, look above if you want the week to week country comparison details

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/11/2021

1. Belgium [1851] +25
2. UK [1686] +67
3. Czechia [1658] +89
4. Italy [1535] +41
5. Portugal [1462] +138 *WHOA Highest riser of the week
6. USA [1455] +63 -still damn high consideration our vaccination progress. +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1394] +64
8. Bulgaria [1378] +45
9. Spain [1362] +71
10. Mexico [1308] +65
11. Peru [1289] +39
12. Croatia [1287] +39
13. Panama [1274] +42
14. France [1231] +44
15. Sweden [1220] +33

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/18/2021

1. Belgium [1875] +24
2. UK [1753] +67
3. Czechia [1748] +90 *biggest gain of the week
4. Italy [1571] +36
5. Portugal [1548] +86 *wave has crested in Portugal, but trend shows it will rise to #4 by next week
6. USA [1513] +58 -beginning to drop a bit!!! +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1455] +61
8. Spain [1418] +56
9. Bulgaria [1409] +31
10. Mexico [1364] +48
11. Peru [1332] +43
12. Croatia [1320] +33
13. Panama [1302] +28
14. France [1272] +41
15. Sweden [1243] +23

*very little country to country movement this week. Overall trends are encouraging for once. UK and Czech Republic threatening Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/25/2021

1. Belgium [1892] +17
2. Czechia [1850] +102 *biggest riser again.
3. UK [1792] +39 *Nice Drop
4. Italy [1600] +29
5. Portugal [1590] +42
6. USA [1562] +49 -continues slow drop +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1521] +66
8. Spain [1464] +47
9. Bulgaria [1450] +31
10. Mexico [1408] +44
11. Peru [1373] +41
12. Croatia [1342] +22
13. Panama [1328] +26
14. France [1305] +33
15. Sweden [1262] +29

*Overall trends remain encouraging. UK and Czech Republic continue to threaten Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/4/2021

1. Czechia [1970] +120 *takes the top spot
2. Belgium [1907] +15 -congrats to Belgium with its relative decrease. This took a long time to achieve.
3. UK [1821] +29 *continues to come down in the UK
4. Italy [1639] +39
5. Portugal [1617] +27
6. Hungary [1605] +84
7. USA [1600] +38 -continues to decelerate. So Texas opens up again (what?)
8. Bulgaria [1506] +56
9. Spain [1502] +38
10. Mexico [1448] +40
11. Peru [1415] +42
12. Slovakia [1384] ***new to list
13. Croatia [1361] +21
14. Panama [1350] +22
15. France [1339] +34

17. Brazil [1215]

*Overall trends remain kind of similar to last week except eastern Europe continues to get destroyed.

**Watch out for Brazil who has had more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate. This despite suspected undercounting. Their President Bolsonaro has doubled down on Hydroxychlorquine purchases instead of securing Covid vaccines.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/11/2021

1. Czechia [2110] +140 *biggest riser again
2. Belgium [1922] +15 *in control in Belgium
3. UK [1837] +16 *also in control
4. Hungary [1711] +106
5. Italy [1675] +36
6. Portugal [1635] +18 *slowing down in Portugal
7. USA [1632] +32 -continues to decelerate, slowly.
8. Bulgaria [1591] +85. Soon to surpass USA.
9. Spain [1539] +37
10. Slovakia [1509] +125, high bump in eastern Europe
11. Mexico [1482] +34
12. Peru [1452] +37
13. Croatia [1379] +18
14. France [1374] +35
15. Panama [1366] +16
17. Brazil [1268] +53 with concerning acceleration. Manaus strain is a mess.

*Watch out for Brazil who continues to have more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/18/2021

1. Czechia [2249] +139 *no sign of slowing down in Czechia
2. Belgium [1944] +22
3. UK [1848] +11
4. Hungary [1828] +116 *wow Eastern Europe. No mention of this in the US National Press that I've seen. We do like navel gazing, don't we?
5. Italy [1719] +44 *uptick in Italy
6. Bulgaria [1695] +104. Soon to surpass USA.
7. USA [1657] +25 -continues to decelerate, slowly.
8. Portugal [1645] +10
9. Slovakia [1614] +106, again eastern Europe
10. Spain [1556] +17
11. Mexico [1508] +26
12. Peru [1487] +25
13. France [1402] +28
14. Croatia [1401] +22
15. Panama [1379] +33
16. Brazil [1335] +67 with concerning acceleration. Leader in deaths worldwide this week. Going to be rising up the ranks over the next 6-8 weeks. Brazilian president pushing hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin instead of vaccinations for Covid19. Go Figure.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/25/2021

1. Czechia [2373] +124 *still shitty in Czech Republic. Blowing the rest of the world away.
2. Hungary [1994] +166 *whoa Eastern Europe
3. Belgium [1960] +16
4. UK [1855] +8 *remember the UK variant concerns? The vaccines are working!!!
5. Bulgaria [1796] +101. Eastern Europe
6. Italy [1761] +42 *rather high in Italy
7. Slovakia [1705] +91, again eastern Europe
8. USA [1680] +23 -continues to decelerate, slowly (and despite efforts of Texas and Florida)
9. Portugal [1652] +7
10. Spain [1584] +28
11. Mexico [1537] +29
12. Peru [1521] +34
13. Croatia [1429] +28
14. France [1425] +23
15. Brazil [1409] +74 *Continues to accelerate with no sign of slowing down. Travesty in Brazil. President is finally changing his tune about vaccinations, but it may be too late. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/25/brazil-coronavirus-bolsonaro-300000-deaths

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250]
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.
12/31/20 -343233 [16962]
1/07/2021 -361900 [18667] -New Peak again. Sadly these are just abstract numbers in my head right now. Not sinking in that 4K Americans died just yesterday.
1/14/2021 -385503 [23603] -huge bump in the last week!!! Way worse than NYC in the Spring of 2020. Avg 3300+ deaths per day.
1/21/2021 -406536 [21033] -still ridiculously high. Should eventually come down with national infection trends and vaccine rollouts.
1/28/2021 -429870 [23334] -yup, still high. Since infections till death takes about 2-6 weeks, and infections appear to be coming down nationwide now (with hot pockets, of course). I suspect deaths should begin to come down in the next 2-6 weeks. Hopefully 2 weeks.
2/4/2021 -451454 [21584] -continues to average >20K deaths per week in the USA. Hopefully begins to truly trend down this upcoming week, following the case data.
2/11/21 -472450 [20996] -no trending down as of yet. I'm beginning to get worried that people are just testing a lot less, thus case counts are going down but deaths are not. Are we taking our feet off the gas?
2/18/21 -490875 [18425] -okay, seeing some movement here in the right direction. Hospitalizations are down to 63K from 134K just 30 days ago.
2/25/21 -506121 [15246] -nice progression. Also, down to 54K hospitalizations. Daily cases in US seem to be leveling off at 50K-75K per day over the last 10 days after a steep drop over the holidays.
3/4/21 -518380 [12259] -deaths still coming down. 45K hospitalizations is down too. Daily cases have stabilized at somewhere between 48K and 75K over the last 18 days. Beware the next wave.
3/11/21 -529469 [11089] -slowly dropping still. Daily cases 44-65K.
3/18/21 -538269 [8800] -huge step in the last week. Daily cases 45-55K or so.
3/25/21 -545357 [7088] -still coming down. * https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend * JHU Website shows that Covid ICU Admissions are down about 1000 in the last week. So number of really sick are still coming down despite an uptick in recent cases per day. Peak was 29K Covid ICU admissions in January, now down to 9.4K this week. Tell me if you disagree, but I think this is a better measure of current pandemic than cases right now since it seems less at risk folks are doing as they please, and meanwhile we now have higher saturation of the vaccine with more at-risk folks.

JGS

JoJo

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #489 on: March 25, 2021, 02:51:26 PM »
The worldwide numbers are soaring with no signs of slowing down.  France, Italy, Netherlands, all those eastern Europe countries - Poland's number today... WTF.   Turkey, Brazil, India is going back up.   
One positive remains Israel with steady improvement in cases and deaths.  I hope it's vaccine impact and not just a cyclical thing  (look at Arizona for comparison - Arizona has had an even more dramatic decrease in cases, with not nearly the same vaccination rates). 

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #490 on: March 25, 2021, 03:18:58 PM »
Hospitalizations and deaths are mostly among the population that has been prioritized for vaccines, so I'd tend to agree that those numbers are more useful than pure cases now. The relationship between cases and hospitalizations/deaths is going to change dramatically with more people vaccinated.

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #491 on: March 26, 2021, 07:53:35 AM »
Hospitalizations and deaths are mostly among the population that has been prioritized for vaccines, so I'd tend to agree that those numbers are more useful than pure cases now. The relationship between cases and hospitalizations/deaths is going to change dramatically with more people vaccinated.

-W

Long term problems due to covid may actually end up making the numbers of infected more important than the deaths.  Especially as we're now seeing that it's common for people with lingering symptoms to have them for more than five months:

https://news.sky.com/story/long-covid-70-of-patients-still-suffer-debilitating-symptoms-five-months-later-study-finds-12255487

JGS1980

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #492 on: April 02, 2021, 11:47:25 AM »
Can't believe it, I forgot yesterday! Busy day at work I guess :)

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
12/31/20 -343233 deaths of 1811128 = 18.95%
1/7/2021 -361900 deaths of 1887970 = 19.17%
1/14/2021 -385503 deaths of 1983691 = 19.43%
1/21/2021 -406536 deaths of 2080009 = 19.55%
1/28/2021 -429870 deaths of 2180867 = 19.71%
2/4/2021 -451454 deaths of 2273515 = 19.86%
2/11/21 -472450 deaths of 2359200 = 20.02%
2/18/21 -490875 deaths of 2434048 = 20.17%
2/25/21 -506121 deaths of 2499964 = 20.25%
3/4/21 -518380 deaths of 2562739 = 20.23% *another inflection point?
3/11/21 -529469 deaths of 2623286 = 20.18%
3/18/21 -538269 deaths of 2683639 = 20.06%
3/25/21 -545357 deaths of 2746581 = 19.86%
4/2/21 -553310 deaths of 2830839 = 19.54%

US and Worldwide death data is taken from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center site.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taking a break from the wall of text, look above if you want the week to week country comparison details

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/11/2021

1. Belgium [1851] +25
2. UK [1686] +67
3. Czechia [1658] +89
4. Italy [1535] +41
5. Portugal [1462] +138 *WHOA Highest riser of the week
6. USA [1455] +63 -still damn high consideration our vaccination progress. +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1394] +64
8. Bulgaria [1378] +45
9. Spain [1362] +71
10. Mexico [1308] +65
11. Peru [1289] +39
12. Croatia [1287] +39
13. Panama [1274] +42
14. France [1231] +44
15. Sweden [1220] +33

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/18/2021

1. Belgium [1875] +24
2. UK [1753] +67
3. Czechia [1748] +90 *biggest gain of the week
4. Italy [1571] +36
5. Portugal [1548] +86 *wave has crested in Portugal, but trend shows it will rise to #4 by next week
6. USA [1513] +58 -beginning to drop a bit!!! +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1455] +61
8. Spain [1418] +56
9. Bulgaria [1409] +31
10. Mexico [1364] +48
11. Peru [1332] +43
12. Croatia [1320] +33
13. Panama [1302] +28
14. France [1272] +41
15. Sweden [1243] +23

*very little country to country movement this week. Overall trends are encouraging for once. UK and Czech Republic threatening Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/25/2021

1. Belgium [1892] +17
2. Czechia [1850] +102 *biggest riser again.
3. UK [1792] +39 *Nice Drop
4. Italy [1600] +29
5. Portugal [1590] +42
6. USA [1562] +49 -continues slow drop +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1521] +66
8. Spain [1464] +47
9. Bulgaria [1450] +31
10. Mexico [1408] +44
11. Peru [1373] +41
12. Croatia [1342] +22
13. Panama [1328] +26
14. France [1305] +33
15. Sweden [1262] +29

*Overall trends remain encouraging. UK and Czech Republic continue to threaten Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/4/2021

1. Czechia [1970] +120 *takes the top spot
2. Belgium [1907] +15 -congrats to Belgium with its relative decrease. This took a long time to achieve.
3. UK [1821] +29 *continues to come down in the UK
4. Italy [1639] +39
5. Portugal [1617] +27
6. Hungary [1605] +84
7. USA [1600] +38 -continues to decelerate. So Texas opens up again (what?)
8. Bulgaria [1506] +56
9. Spain [1502] +38
10. Mexico [1448] +40
11. Peru [1415] +42
12. Slovakia [1384] ***new to list
13. Croatia [1361] +21
14. Panama [1350] +22
15. France [1339] +34

17. Brazil [1215]

*Overall trends remain kind of similar to last week except eastern Europe continues to get destroyed.

**Watch out for Brazil who has had more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate. This despite suspected undercounting. Their President Bolsonaro has doubled down on Hydroxychlorquine purchases instead of securing Covid vaccines.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/11/2021

1. Czechia [2110] +140 *biggest riser again
2. Belgium [1922] +15 *in control in Belgium
3. UK [1837] +16 *also in control
4. Hungary [1711] +106
5. Italy [1675] +36
6. Portugal [1635] +18 *slowing down in Portugal
7. USA [1632] +32 -continues to decelerate, slowly.
8. Bulgaria [1591] +85. Soon to surpass USA.
9. Spain [1539] +37
10. Slovakia [1509] +125, high bump in eastern Europe
11. Mexico [1482] +34
12. Peru [1452] +37
13. Croatia [1379] +18
14. France [1374] +35
15. Panama [1366] +16
17. Brazil [1268] +53 with concerning acceleration. Manaus strain is a mess.

*Watch out for Brazil who continues to have more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/18/2021

1. Czechia [2249] +139 *no sign of slowing down in Czechia
2. Belgium [1944] +22
3. UK [1848] +11
4. Hungary [1828] +116 *wow Eastern Europe. No mention of this in the US National Press that I've seen. We do like navel gazing, don't we?
5. Italy [1719] +44 *uptick in Italy
6. Bulgaria [1695] +104. Soon to surpass USA.
7. USA [1657] +25 -continues to decelerate, slowly.
8. Portugal [1645] +10
9. Slovakia [1614] +106, again eastern Europe
10. Spain [1556] +17
11. Mexico [1508] +26
12. Peru [1487] +25
13. France [1402] +28
14. Croatia [1401] +22
15. Panama [1379] +33
16. Brazil [1335] +67 with concerning acceleration. Leader in deaths worldwide this week. Going to be rising up the ranks over the next 6-8 weeks. Brazilian president pushing hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin instead of vaccinations for Covid19. Go Figure.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/25/2021

1. Czechia [2373] +124 *still shitty in Czech Republic. Blowing the rest of the world away.
2. Hungary [1994] +166 *whoa Eastern Europe
3. Belgium [1960] +16
4. UK [1855] +8 *remember the UK variant concerns? The vaccines are working!!!
5. Bulgaria [1796] +101. Eastern Europe
6. Italy [1761] +42 *rather high in Italy
7. Slovakia [1705] +91, again eastern Europe
8. USA [1680] +23 -continues to decelerate, slowly (and despite efforts of Texas and Florida)
9. Portugal [1652] +7
10. Spain [1584] +28
11. Mexico [1537] +29
12. Peru [1521] +34
13. Croatia [1429] +28
14. France [1425] +23
15. Brazil [1409] +74 *Continues to accelerate with no sign of slowing down. Travesty in Brazil. President is finally changing his tune about vaccinations, but it may be too late. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/25/brazil-coronavirus-bolsonaro-300000-deaths

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 4/2/2021

1. Czechia [2496] +123 *still shitty
2. Hungary [2205] +211 *doubly shitty in Hungary
3. Belgium [1982] +22
4. Bulgaria [1927] +131, again, Eastern Europe
5. UK [1861] +6 *great job UK, turned it around. 47% with at least one Covid shot.
6. Italy [1827] +66 *accelerating again high in Italy
7. Slovakia [1808] +103, again eastern Europe
8. USA [1705] +25 -stable in the last week. Case counts increasing again, however. 30% of population with at least 1 shot
9. Portugal [1658] +6
10. Spain [1615] +29
11. Mexico [1567] +30
12. Peru [1566] +45
13. Brazil [1523] +114 *WHOA. Continues to accelerate as predicted. Really nothing going to slow this down in Brazil as only 7% population has had one shot.
14. France [1473] +48 *doubled in 1 week. This is why Macron is getting pressured to lock down again.
13. Croatia [1467] +38 *friend of mine says tourism is huge source of revenue for Croatia. Don't know if they will be able to lock things down due to economics.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250]
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.
12/31/20 -343233 [16962]
1/07/2021 -361900 [18667] -New Peak again. Sadly these are just abstract numbers in my head right now. Not sinking in that 4K Americans died just yesterday.
1/14/2021 -385503 [23603] -huge bump in the last week!!! Way worse than NYC in the Spring of 2020. Avg 3300+ deaths per day.
1/21/2021 -406536 [21033] -still ridiculously high. Should eventually come down with national infection trends and vaccine rollouts.
1/28/2021 -429870 [23334] -yup, still high. Since infections till death takes about 2-6 weeks, and infections appear to be coming down nationwide now (with hot pockets, of course). I suspect deaths should begin to come down in the next 2-6 weeks. Hopefully 2 weeks.
2/4/2021 -451454 [21584] -continues to average >20K deaths per week in the USA. Hopefully begins to truly trend down this upcoming week, following the case data.
2/11/21 -472450 [20996] -no trending down as of yet. I'm beginning to get worried that people are just testing a lot less, thus case counts are going down but deaths are not. Are we taking our feet off the gas?
2/18/21 -490875 [18425] -okay, seeing some movement here in the right direction. Hospitalizations are down to 63K from 134K just 30 days ago.
2/25/21 -506121 [15246] -nice progression. Also, down to 54K hospitalizations. Daily cases in US seem to be leveling off at 50K-75K per day over the last 10 days after a steep drop over the holidays.
3/4/21 -518380 [12259] -deaths still coming down. 45K hospitalizations is down too. Daily cases have stabilized at somewhere between 48K and 75K over the last 18 days. Beware the next wave.
3/11/21 -529469 [11089] -slowly dropping still. Daily cases 44-65K.
3/18/21 -538269 [8800] -huge step in the last week. Daily cases 45-55K or so.
3/25/21 -545357 [7088] -still coming down. * https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend * JHU Website shows that Covid ICU Admissions are down about 1000 in the last week. So number of really sick are still coming down despite an uptick in recent cases per day. Peak was 29K Covid ICU admissions in January, now down to 9.4K this week. Tell me if you disagree, but I think this is a better measure of current pandemic than cases right now since it seems less at risk folks are doing as they please, and meanwhile we now have higher saturation of the vaccine with more at-risk folks.
4/1/21 -553310 [7001] -I substracted yesterday's 952 deaths -stable over the last week. Total cases are coming up again 66K per day over the last week. Lets hope the vaccinations of the oldest/sickest prevent increased Covid deaths. 1 year tracking anniversary this week.

JGS

jrhampt

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #493 on: April 02, 2021, 12:16:50 PM »
Aha!  I wondered if you were taking the week off for Easter or something.  Thanks!

JoJo

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #494 on: April 02, 2021, 03:42:11 PM »
Given that the first shots were given to the highest risk groups, it is quite discouraging that the mortality rate doesn't appear to be coming down (yet)

First I looked at the peak cases and deaths for the 3 waves, and calculated the # of days between and mortality rate.  This isn't perfect because we know for wave 1 the cases were way under-reported, and we don't have a way to measure the true # of cases since some people presumably don't test or asymptomatic.  This analysis uses the 7-day rolling averages from worldometers

            date       peak cases   date       peak deaths   days   mortality rate
wave 1   10-Apr   33107   21-Apr   2263          11   6.84%
wave 2   24-Jul   70005   4-Aug   1195          11   1.71%
wave 3   11-Jan   256229   26-Jan   3457          15   1.35%

So based on this, I conclude the deaths trail the case diagnosis by about 14 days, so I will use that to compare recent mortality rates. 

Well, here's the mortality rate for the last 2 weeks, using a 14 day delay between cases and deaths.  Sadly not seeing great improvement here.
 
            date           cases   date        cases   days   mortality rate
1 wk ago   11-Mar   57124   25-Mar   985   14   1.72%
now           18-Mar   55925   1-Apr   902   14   1.61%


maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #495 on: April 02, 2021, 04:16:37 PM »
Isn't at least the UK variant associated with a significantly higher death rate (on the order of 50% higher)?

One potential explanation could be that the growth in the frequency of that variant in the USA would normally be bringing up the death rate, and right now the vaccination of the most at risk are essentially cancelling each other out.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #496 on: April 02, 2021, 05:04:09 PM »
Isn't at least the UK variant associated with a significantly higher death rate (on the order of 50% higher)?

One potential explanation could be that the growth in the frequency of that variant in the USA would normally be bringing up the death rate, and right now the vaccination of the most at risk are essentially cancelling each other out.

More hospitalizations among younger people too . . . at least that's what is occurring here in Canada right now, with our extremely limited vaccine supply and low distribution.

JGS1980

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #497 on: April 08, 2021, 10:57:26 AM »
USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
12/31/20 -343233 deaths of 1811128 = 18.95%
1/7/2021 -361900 deaths of 1887970 = 19.17%
1/14/2021 -385503 deaths of 1983691 = 19.43%
1/21/2021 -406536 deaths of 2080009 = 19.55%
1/28/2021 -429870 deaths of 2180867 = 19.71%
2/4/2021 -451454 deaths of 2273515 = 19.86%
2/11/21 -472450 deaths of 2359200 = 20.02%
2/18/21 -490875 deaths of 2434048 = 20.17%
2/25/21 -506121 deaths of 2499964 = 20.25%
3/4/21 -518380 deaths of 2562739 = 20.23% *another inflection point?
3/11/21 -529469 deaths of 2623286 = 20.18%
3/18/21 -538269 deaths of 2683639 = 20.06%
3/25/21 -545357 deaths of 2746581 = 19.86%
4/2/21 -553310 deaths of 2830839 = 19.54%
4/8/21 -559219 deaths of 2891206 = 19.34%
US and Worldwide death data is taken from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center site.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taking a break from the wall of text, look above if you want the week to week country comparison details

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/11/2021

1. Belgium [1851] +25
2. UK [1686] +67
3. Czechia [1658] +89
4. Italy [1535] +41
5. Portugal [1462] +138 *WHOA Highest riser of the week
6. USA [1455] +63 -still damn high consideration our vaccination progress. +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1394] +64
8. Bulgaria [1378] +45
9. Spain [1362] +71
10. Mexico [1308] +65
11. Peru [1289] +39
12. Croatia [1287] +39
13. Panama [1274] +42
14. France [1231] +44
15. Sweden [1220] +33

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/18/2021

1. Belgium [1875] +24
2. UK [1753] +67
3. Czechia [1748] +90 *biggest gain of the week
4. Italy [1571] +36
5. Portugal [1548] +86 *wave has crested in Portugal, but trend shows it will rise to #4 by next week
6. USA [1513] +58 -beginning to drop a bit!!! +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1455] +61
8. Spain [1418] +56
9. Bulgaria [1409] +31
10. Mexico [1364] +48
11. Peru [1332] +43
12. Croatia [1320] +33
13. Panama [1302] +28
14. France [1272] +41
15. Sweden [1243] +23

*very little country to country movement this week. Overall trends are encouraging for once. UK and Czech Republic threatening Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results. Because of this cutoff, neither Slovenia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, or Montenegro (all in the Balkans) have made the top 15 list although they would qualify otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 2/25/2021

1. Belgium [1892] +17
2. Czechia [1850] +102 *biggest riser again.
3. UK [1792] +39 *Nice Drop
4. Italy [1600] +29
5. Portugal [1590] +42
6. USA [1562] +49 -continues slow drop +1 point = 330 more US deaths/wk
7. Hungary [1521] +66
8. Spain [1464] +47
9. Bulgaria [1450] +31
10. Mexico [1408] +44
11. Peru [1373] +41
12. Croatia [1342] +22
13. Panama [1328] +26
14. France [1305] +33
15. Sweden [1262] +29

*Overall trends remain encouraging. UK and Czech Republic continue to threaten Belgium's #1 spot in the next few weeks.

Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/4/2021

1. Czechia [1970] +120 *takes the top spot
2. Belgium [1907] +15 -congrats to Belgium with its relative decrease. This took a long time to achieve.
3. UK [1821] +29 *continues to come down in the UK
4. Italy [1639] +39
5. Portugal [1617] +27
6. Hungary [1605] +84
7. USA [1600] +38 -continues to decelerate. So Texas opens up again (what?)
8. Bulgaria [1506] +56
9. Spain [1502] +38
10. Mexico [1448] +40
11. Peru [1415] +42
12. Slovakia [1384] ***new to list
13. Croatia [1361] +21
14. Panama [1350] +22
15. France [1339] +34

17. Brazil [1215]

*Overall trends remain kind of similar to last week except eastern Europe continues to get destroyed.

**Watch out for Brazil who has had more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate. This despite suspected undercounting. Their President Bolsonaro has doubled down on Hydroxychlorquine purchases instead of securing Covid vaccines.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/11/2021

1. Czechia [2110] +140 *biggest riser again
2. Belgium [1922] +15 *in control in Belgium
3. UK [1837] +16 *also in control
4. Hungary [1711] +106
5. Italy [1675] +36
6. Portugal [1635] +18 *slowing down in Portugal
7. USA [1632] +32 -continues to decelerate, slowly.
8. Bulgaria [1591] +85. Soon to surpass USA.
9. Spain [1539] +37
10. Slovakia [1509] +125, high bump in eastern Europe
11. Mexico [1482] +34
12. Peru [1452] +37
13. Croatia [1379] +18
14. France [1374] +35
15. Panama [1366] +16
17. Brazil [1268] +53 with concerning acceleration. Manaus strain is a mess.

*Watch out for Brazil who continues to have more cases per day of late than even the US despite a smaller population. Eventually this will lead to increased death rate.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/18/2021

1. Czechia [2249] +139 *no sign of slowing down in Czechia
2. Belgium [1944] +22
3. UK [1848] +11
4. Hungary [1828] +116 *wow Eastern Europe. No mention of this in the US National Press that I've seen. We do like navel gazing, don't we?
5. Italy [1719] +44 *uptick in Italy
6. Bulgaria [1695] +104. Soon to surpass USA.
7. USA [1657] +25 -continues to decelerate, slowly.
8. Portugal [1645] +10
9. Slovakia [1614] +106, again eastern Europe
10. Spain [1556] +17
11. Mexico [1508] +26
12. Peru [1487] +25
13. France [1402] +28
14. Croatia [1401] +22
15. Panama [1379] +33
16. Brazil [1335] +67 with concerning acceleration. Leader in deaths worldwide this week. Going to be rising up the ranks over the next 6-8 weeks. Brazilian president pushing hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin instead of vaccinations for Covid19. Go Figure.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 3/25/2021

1. Czechia [2373] +124 *still shitty in Czech Republic. Blowing the rest of the world away.
2. Hungary [1994] +166 *whoa Eastern Europe
3. Belgium [1960] +16
4. UK [1855] +8 *remember the UK variant concerns? The vaccines are working!!!
5. Bulgaria [1796] +101. Eastern Europe
6. Italy [1761] +42 *rather high in Italy
7. Slovakia [1705] +91, again eastern Europe
8. USA [1680] +23 -continues to decelerate, slowly (and despite efforts of Texas and Florida)
9. Portugal [1652] +7
10. Spain [1584] +28
11. Mexico [1537] +29
12. Peru [1521] +34
13. Croatia [1429] +28
14. France [1425] +23
15. Brazil [1409] +74 *Continues to accelerate with no sign of slowing down. Travesty in Brazil. President is finally changing his tune about vaccinations, but it may be too late. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/25/brazil-coronavirus-bolsonaro-300000-deaths

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 4/2/2021

1. Czechia [2496] +123 *still shitty
2. Hungary [2205] +211 *doubly shitty in Hungary
3. Belgium [1982] +22
4. Bulgaria [1927] +131, again, Eastern Europe
5. UK [1861] +6 *great job UK, turned it around. 47% with at least one Covid shot.
6. Italy [1827] +66 *accelerating again high in Italy
7. Slovakia [1808] +103, again eastern Europe
8. USA [1705] +25 -stable in the last week. Case counts increasing again, however. 30% of population with at least 1 shot
9. Portugal [1658] +6
10. Spain [1615] +29
11. Mexico [1567] +30
12. Peru [1566] +45
13. Brazil [1523] +114 *WHOA. Continues to accelerate as predicted. Really nothing going to slow this down in Brazil as only 7% population has had one shot.
14. France [1473] +48 *doubled in 1 week. This is why Macron is getting pressured to lock down again.
13. Croatia [1467] +38 *friend of mine says tourism is huge source of revenue for Croatia. Don't know if they will be able to lock things down due to economics.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 4/8/2021

1. Czechia [2561] +66 *finally decelerating
2. Hungary [2352] +137 *highest levels for the week, still shitty, but decelerating
3. Bulgaria [2032] +105, again, Eastern Europe
4. Belgium [2004] +22 ***outside the top 3 for the first time. Congratulations Belgium!
5. Slovakia [1890] +82, again eastern Europe
6. Italy [1869] +42 *decelerating in Italy
7. UK [1863] +2 *this thing is over in the UK
8. USA [1723] +18 -down in the last week. 33% of population with at least 1 shot
9. Portugal [1661] +3
10. Spain [1626] +11 *amazing how close it all turns out at the end in the Iberian peninsula
11. Peru [1612] +46 *Still high in Peru
12. Brazil [1596] +73 *well, at least it's decelerating. The numbers looking more and more suspect, however. At this rate will jump a couple more spots in the next week.
13. Mexico [1582] +15
14. Croatia [1514] +47 *accelerating again in Croatia
15. Poland [1498] +??? *1st time on the list for Poland. Another Eastern European country.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250]
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.
12/31/20 -343233 [16962]
1/07/2021 -361900 [18667] -New Peak again. Sadly these are just abstract numbers in my head right now. Not sinking in that 4K Americans died just yesterday.
1/14/2021 -385503 [23603] -huge bump in the last week!!! Way worse than NYC in the Spring of 2020. Avg 3300+ deaths per day.
1/21/2021 -406536 [21033] -still ridiculously high. Should eventually come down with national infection trends and vaccine rollouts.
1/28/2021 -429870 [23334] -yup, still high. Since infections till death takes about 2-6 weeks, and infections appear to be coming down nationwide now (with hot pockets, of course). I suspect deaths should begin to come down in the next 2-6 weeks. Hopefully 2 weeks.
2/4/2021 -451454 [21584] -continues to average >20K deaths per week in the USA. Hopefully begins to truly trend down this upcoming week, following the case data.
2/11/21 -472450 [20996] -no trending down as of yet. I'm beginning to get worried that people are just testing a lot less, thus case counts are going down but deaths are not. Are we taking our feet off the gas?
2/18/21 -490875 [18425] -okay, seeing some movement here in the right direction. Hospitalizations are down to 63K from 134K just 30 days ago.
2/25/21 -506121 [15246] -nice progression. Also, down to 54K hospitalizations. Daily cases in US seem to be leveling off at 50K-75K per day over the last 10 days after a steep drop over the holidays.
3/4/21 -518380 [12259] -deaths still coming down. 45K hospitalizations is down too. Daily cases have stabilized at somewhere between 48K and 75K over the last 18 days. Beware the next wave.
3/11/21 -529469 [11089] -slowly dropping still. Daily cases 44-65K.
3/18/21 -538269 [8800] -huge step in the last week. Daily cases 45-55K or so.
3/25/21 -545357 [7088] -still coming down. * https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend * JHU Website shows that Covid ICU Admissions are down about 1000 in the last week. So number of really sick are still coming down despite an uptick in recent cases per day. Peak was 29K Covid ICU admissions in January, now down to 9.4K this week. Tell me if you disagree, but I think this is a better measure of current pandemic than cases right now since it seems less at risk folks are doing as they please, and meanwhile we now have higher saturation of the vaccine with more at-risk folks.
4/1/21 -553310 [7001] -I substracted yesterday's 952 deaths -stable over the last week. Total cases are coming up again 66K per day over the last week. Lets hope the vaccinations of the oldest/sickest prevent increased Covid deaths. 1 year tracking anniversary this week.
4/8/21 -559219 [5909] -deaths coming down still. Yay! Cases coming up, but with a younger median age as vaccinations continue.

JoJo

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  • Posts: 1851
Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #498 on: April 09, 2021, 09:13:19 AM »
Updating post 494 with a couple more weeks data...

            date       peak cases   date       peak deaths   days   mortality rate
wave 1   10-Apr   33107   21-Apr   2263          11   6.84%
wave 2   24-Jul   70005   4-Aug   1195          11   1.71%
wave 3   11-Jan   256229   26-Jan   3457          15   1.35%

So based on this, I conclude the deaths trail the case diagnosis by about 14 days, so I will use that to compare recent mortality rates.

Well, here's the mortality rate for the last few weeks, using a 14 day delay between cases and deaths.  finally starting to see improvement in the last week!
 
date       cases      date        deaths   days   mortality rate
11-Mar   57124     25-Mar      985       14     1.72%
18-Mar   55925     1-Apr        902       14     1.61%
25-Mar   59,184    8-Apr        775       14     1.31%

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #499 on: April 09, 2021, 04:52:23 PM »
I'm optimistic that the death spike will be blunted this time around since most of the high-risk people in the US have gotten at least one dose of a vaccine.