Coronavirus Weekly Update

[katsiki]

This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205

Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries.  For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000).  Similarly, Japan - 4,315.  Australia - 11,619...

Interesting.  It seems like a false comparison to me though.  US and SK are very different.  US and AUS are perhaps more 'compatible'.

The intent was not to compare similar social norms, it was just a thought exercise on how differently this could have played out under different circumstances in the US.  I would encourage you to see all of Sanjay Gupta's interview, the second part highlights what to expect going forward in the US - https://youtu.be/TWloBXxspWA

Thanks @EscapeVelocity2020

I will watch it.  Thanks for posting the links!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205

Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries.  For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000).  Similarly, Japan - 4,315.  Australia - 11,619...

Interesting.  It seems like a false comparison to me though.  US and SK are very different.  US and AUS are perhaps more 'compatible'.

The intent was not to compare similar social norms, it was just a thought exercise on how differently this could have played out under different circumstances in the US.  I would encourage you to see all of Sanjay Gupta's interview, the second part highlights what to expect going forward in the US - https://youtu.be/TWloBXxspWA

Thanks @EscapeVelocity2020

I will watch it.  Thanks for posting the links!

I do my best to post things that I think others might have missed that are enlightening.  It is actually quite sad, to me at least, that we have so many US experts with great advice and worthy perspective that are not being heard.

[Glenstache]

Check out the "Percent Positive" Tab on this Johns Hopkins Trend Tracker

CDC recommends %Positive to be 5.0% or less
The USA currently has 36 states >5.0% and 15 states >10.0%

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

Yikes some of those percentages are high. Given the differences in testing by state, I wonder what systematic biases are under them. For example, Mississippi reported a 100% positive rate. That suggests that test are only given where it is confirming something clinically obvious and that the infection rate is wildly underrepresented by the testing data. Regardless of testing, 989 new cases a week in a state with the population of South Dakota (~885k) is scary.

[Paper Chaser]

This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205

Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries.  For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000).  Similarly, Japan - 4,315.  Australia - 11,619...

Are those nations a legitimate comparison or just mentioned for shock value? Besides wildly different cultural aspects, SK, Japan, Aus, NZ, and many other nations that have handled the pandemic particularly well are islands (or essentially islands in SK's case) that don't have thousands of miles of borders to shut down. You shut down a couple of airports quickly and easily and that pretty much eliminates international spread in those countries. It's a much easier task from a logistical standpoint.
It's an ok exercise if you want to play the "woulda shoulda" game to shock people, but I think there are probably more comparable comparisons of countries that have handled the pandemic better than the US while also being more similar to the US (Canada, Germany, etc).
If the US had done as well as Canada (Using deaths per 100k population as the metric), there would be 89k dead
If the US had done as well as Germany, there would be 66k dead

Obviously both of those marks are far better than the 230k dead thus far, but they don't generate as much shock as a comparison to deaths in the 4 figure range.

[Paper Chaser]

Check out the "Percent Positive" Tab on this Johns Hopkins Trend Tracker

CDC recommends %Positive to be 5.0% or less
The USA currently has 36 states >5.0% and 15 states >10.0%

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

Yikes some of those percentages are high. Given the differences in testing by state, I wonder what systematic biases are under them. For example, Mississippi reported a 100% positive rate. That suggests that test are only given where it is confirming something clinically obvious and that the infection rate is wildly underrepresented by the testing data. Regardless of testing, 989 new cases a week in a state with the population of South Dakota (~885k) is scary.

It usually boils down to whether the states are reporting positivity as it relates to unique individuals or as it relates to all tests. And if the state reports both, then it comes down to whether the website chooses the proper metric.
For example, Johns Hopkins has used the wrong info for Idaho which skews the data and makes their positivity much higher:
https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article246124105.html

If we picked states with similarly high positivity, I'd bet that most involve similar issues of reporting/recording mistakes. That data is still useful for monitoring trends but simply looking at the values can lead to some inaccurate assumptions. The real issue is that states are still reporting data in different ways and different intervals so a national website like covid tracking project or Johns Hopkins is taking in bad or inaccurate data.

[jrhampt]

Check out the "Percent Positive" Tab on this Johns Hopkins Trend Tracker

CDC recommends %Positive to be 5.0% or less
The USA currently has 36 states >5.0% and 15 states >10.0%

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

Yes, yes, but what happened to the weekly update this week??

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
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Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
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Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

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Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

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Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

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Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.

[JGS1980]

***WARNING. WALL OF TEXT COMING ... This COVID thing is getting REAL***

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/5/20

1. Belgium [1062] +100 -2nd wave another HUGE bump for Belgium
2. Peru [1047] +11
3. Spain [823] +65 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration as well
4. Brazil [757] +13
5. Chile [751] +19
6. Bolivia [747] +5
7. USA [725] +21 death rate accelerating. Each death/million translates to about 300 USA deaths in the previous week.
8. Mexico [720] +22
9. Argentina [717] +54 -still rising rapidly. Technically first wave in Argentina, I think
10. Ecuador [716] +5
11. UK [702]  +20 -2nd wave still accelerating
12. Italy [665] +38 -2nd wave
13. Panama [633] +19
14. Colombia [627] +25
15. France [598] +50 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration
16. Sweden [593] +7 -second wave has begun in Sweden as well as predicted above (If this follows the rest of Europe, it will lead to 12 and then 25, and then 50 in the next 4-5 weeks)
 
***Biggest movers last week were Belgium, Spain, Argentina, and France. Italy and UK close behind. Meanwhile I'm all but certain that on average at least 1000 US citizens will be dying daily for at least the next 6 weeks.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.

[DarkandStormy]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/covid-infections-in-sweden-surge-dashing-hopes-of-herd-immunity

It looks like Sweden did not achieve herd immunity, as planned.  Remember, they thought they'd hit that mark by May.

Deaths are the most lagging indicator.  So I'm not sure that language like "surging" is necessarily correct (I mean, it is correct now because that's what is happening).

We've also gotten much better at treating it - not perfect, of course, but the case fatality rate continues to decline pretty steadily, which is a good thing.  It's also why we didn't see death spikes proportionally to the rise in cases over the summer and why we may not see a spike in deaths similar to the rise in cases currently.

[GuitarStv]

We've also gotten much better at treating it - not perfect, of course, but the case fatality rate continues to decline pretty steadily, which is a good thing.  It's also why we didn't see death spikes proportionally to the rise in cases over the summer and why we may not see a spike in deaths similar to the rise in cases currently.

We'll see what happens as the hospitals overflow.

[jrhampt]

Oh drat; I thought this was going to be the weekly update.  Interesting Sweden article though.

[RetiredAt63]

Canada is also well into its second wave.  Sigh.

[JGS1980]

On vacation, update will have to wait. General summary is that it all went to hell.

[Hvillian]

On vacation, update will have to wait. General summary is that it all went to hell.

Was afraid of that.  Enjoy your vacation, nevertheless.

[OtherJen]

On vacation, update will have to wait. General summary is that it all went to hell.

Pretty much. Detroit Public Schools are going all-virtual beginning on Monday and extending through mid-January. I don't know what info the superintendent has gotten, but he's usually loathe to close the schools for more than the odd bad snow day because it places kids' education and well-being at risk. We've had COVID press conferences from state government and the heads of regional health systems today.

[GuitarStv]

Canada is also well into its second wave.  Sigh.

It's interesting that (other than Quebec, which has never had covid under control from the start) the worst hit provinces for the second wave are all governed by Conservatives.  Not sure if this is a coincidence or indicative of something in the style of governance.

[RetiredAt63]

Canada is also well into its second wave.  Sigh.

It's interesting that (other than Quebec, which has never had covid under control from the start) the worst hit provinces for the second wave are all governed by Conservatives.  Not sure if this is a coincidence or indicative of something in the style of governance.

We could start a whole new thread on this.  Deep sigh this time.

[JGS1980]

Okay, I'm a couple days late here, so since I usually update on Thursdays at around noon, I'm going to unscientifically subtract 2/7 of the delta in the last week to achieve somewhat accurate results as this next wave engulfs us. If you don't like it you can retroactively start your own 8 month tracking of the World and US Covid Pandemic. :)

JGS
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USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

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Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/5/20

1. Belgium [1062] +100 -2nd wave another HUGE bump for Belgium
2. Peru [1047] +11
3. Spain [823] +65 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration as well
4. Brazil [757] +13
5. Chile [751] +19
6. Bolivia [747] +5
7. USA [725] +21 death rate accelerating. Each death/million translates to about 300 USA deaths in the previous week.
8. Mexico [720] +22
9. Argentina [717] +54 -still rising rapidly. Technically first wave in Argentina, I think
10. Ecuador [716] +5
11. UK [702]  +20 -2nd wave still accelerating
12. Italy [665] +38 -2nd wave
13. Panama [633] +19
14. Colombia [627] +25
15. France [598] +50 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration
16. Sweden [593] +7 -second wave has begun in Sweden as well as predicted above (If this follows the rest of Europe, it will lead to 12 and then 25, and then 50 in the next 4-5 weeks)
 
***Biggest movers last week were Belgium, Spain, Argentina, and France. Italy and UK close behind. Meanwhile I'm all but certain that on average at least 1000 US citizens will be dying daily for at least the next 6 weeks.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/12/20

1. Belgium [1158] +96
2. Peru [1056] +9
3. Spain [858] +35 -rapid deceleration in pain is encouraging
4. Brazil [769] +12
5. Chile [767]+3
6. Argentina [757] +40 -still rising rapidly.
7. USA [746] +21 again
8. UK [739] +37 -2nd wave still accelerating in the UK
9. Bolivia [751] +4
10. Mexico [741] +21
11. Ecuador [727] +11
12. Italy [711] +46 -2nd wave still accelerating in Italy
13. France [651] +53 -2nd wave
14. Colombia [650] +23 -decelerating in Columbia
15. Panama [633] +18
16. Sweden [604] +11 -second wave accelerating in Sweden continues. I predicted 12 (we got 11 deaths/million this week, if trend continues will be 23-25 or so next week, and then approx 45-50 in the 2 weeks after).

*Note that I'm not including smallish countries less than 4 Million or so. This is fairly arbitrary on my part. The next up and coming country is Czechia with >10 million people and a death rate of >550/million.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.

[OtherJen]

11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.

A lot of healthcare systems seem to be right on the edge right now. In North Dakota they are sending in COVID positive doctors and nurses to care for COVID patients because they're out of people. Where I live the hospitals just announced they are cancelling any procedures which require an overnight stay, because they're out of beds and out of people to monitor the beds.

The hospital where my SIL lives may be turned into an entirely COVID facility because the regional health system is so overloaded. Yet all the schools are staying open as long as they can keep a minimum staffing level.

[Abe]

Another update per state. Not looking great.

[JGS1980]

Can't remember if I posted this site already, but it is informative. Especially the "Currently Hospitalized" column.

https://covidtracking.com/data/national

The USA is currently at about 10000 more hospitalizations past our previous peaks in July and April, with no hint of a deceleration.

It's just data, people, but man is this scary.

[waltworks]

Another update per state. Not looking great.

Thanks for posting that, Abe. I find it fascinating that the end results seem to be largely the same in different states/areas despite vastly different responses (ie, some places have mandated masks/closed businesses, others have done almost nothing - but they're all spiking). It's a bit dispiriting honestly. As much as I support everyone wearing masks and not getting together for parties, it seems it doesn't actually help much.

-W

[Dollar Slice]

Another update per state. Not looking great.

Thanks for posting that, Abe. I find it fascinating that the end results seem to be largely the same in different states/areas despite vastly different responses (ie, some places have mandated masks/closed businesses, others have done almost nothing - but they're all spiking). It's a bit dispiriting honestly. As much as I support everyone wearing masks and not getting together for parties, it seems it doesn't actually help much.

I think what you're missing is that those state by state charts are all on different scales to make the "spikes" fill the square. The states like Washington and New York which have been trying hard to manage it have slight upticks, while denialist states like South Dakota are wildly out of control. (I'm not saying this is your fault, the charts are kind of made to look like they're all the same.) You can get a better idea of the state by state comparison by looking at the Washington Post version of these charts which all use the same scale, and are sorted by severity. This story is not paywalled: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

[waltworks]

I think what you're missing is that those state by state charts are all on different scales to make the "spikes" fill the square. The states like Washington and New York which have been trying hard to manage it have slight upticks, while denialist states like South Dakota are wildly out of control. (I'm not saying this is your fault, the charts are kind of made to look like they're all the same.) You can get a better idea of the state by state comparison by looking at the Washington Post version of these charts which all use the same scale, and are sorted by severity. This story is not paywalled: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

Oh, I'm aware of the differences in scale. But positive second derivatives all around. It might be the case that some states have just pushed back the *timing* of the spike and are a little further ahead/behind. We'll see, I guess.

-W

[Abe]

I can post non-scaled charts if you all want. Of note, the death scales are roughly the same (about 0-20/100k population) regardless of state.

Posted below is a non-scaled chart with deaths adjusted to be per 100k, and starting from Sept 1 (instead of June 1). It's annoying non-informative for the majority of states (which I remember now is why I did individual scales before when NY & NJ were in bad shape), but does show that the Dakotas are in trouble currently. I've included the scaled charts for reference.

[Abe]

I would also caution in ascribing reasons for the current upticks in specific states to political or other behaviors. For any given comparison that fits one's theory, there is another that does not. A good example are the two largest by population, California and Texas. Both have similar trajectories with recent case numbers but are not similar in management by any means. 

[Dollar Slice]

I would also caution in ascribing reasons for the current upticks in specific states to political or other behaviors. For any given comparison that fits one's theory, there is another that does not. A good example are the two largest by population, California and Texas. Both have similar trajectories with recent case numbers but are not similar in management by any means.

I find case numbers are not very helpful in general - it depends too much on how much testing is being done. And it's impossible to compare to, say, how bad it was in the spring when there were no tests to be had. Texas appears to have nearly four times the current death rate as California, and WaPo says their hospitalization rate is more than 2x as bad. Texas has done way less testing and had many more deaths per 100k overall.

You're right that it's not always cut and dried, because super spreader events can have a big impact (I'm convinced that Sturgis is part of the reason there's been such a huge surge in the Dakotas and surrounding states, for example). But if you look at the hospitalization and current death rates, the bottom of the charts is dominated by states that have mask mandates and other restrictions.

[Abe]

I would also caution in ascribing reasons for the current upticks in specific states to political or other behaviors. For any given comparison that fits one's theory, there is another that does not. A good example are the two largest by population, California and Texas. Both have similar trajectories with recent case numbers but are not similar in management by any means.

I find case numbers are not very helpful in general - it depends too much on how much testing is being done. And it's impossible to compare to, say, how bad it was in the spring when there were no tests to be had. Texas appears to have nearly four times the current death rate as California, and WaPo says their hospitalization rate is more than 2x as bad. Texas has done way less testing and had many more deaths per 100k overall.

You're right that it's not always cut and dried, because super spreader events can have a big impact (I'm convinced that Sturgis is part of the reason there's been such a huge surge in the Dakotas and surrounding states, for example). But if you look at the hospitalization and current death rates, the bottom of the charts is dominated by states that have mask mandates and other restrictions.

Good points. I've come to rely primarily on deaths as the most accurate indicator of spread. Specifically excess deaths, but that is the laggiest of indicators as it takes time for the CDC to compile that data. COVID-related deaths are still a bit fuzzy as different states (and even counties) attribute them differently. Thus intra-state comparisons are generally not that useful. More stable are trend lines within a state, and both CA & TX are <0.5/100k for a few months now. Though the graphs by their nature are more granular, I do think there's a risk of over-estimating precision. I'd generally group states into low and higher than median fatality rates, and hesitate to be any more precise than that. Especially when trying to ascribe any policies to differences in outcomes. Since, as @waltworks  pointed out, cases are rising in nearly every state, I don't think we can say any state is doing substantially better in the long run than other states. The exception is when a tipping point is reached and healthcare capacity is overwhelmed, which happened in NY/NJ/CT in April-May, and is happening now in the upper Midwest. I do think those states will have somewhat higher death rates. Texas and several others states have had quite lax measures, but are not close to capacity due to the extensive medical resources. These states we can predict from being outliers in the standard scale graph.

[Moonwaves]

This is the only Coronavirus thread I follow. This may fit better in another thread. If anyone thinks so, feel free to let me know (or just cross-post yourself, if you like).

I saw this short twitter thread posted by a nurse earlier today and it makes me inexpressibly sad and bewildered.

I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is Going to ruin the USA. All while gasping for breath on 100% Vapotherm.  They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that “stuff” because they don’t have COViD because it’s not real. Yes. This really happens. And I can’t stop thinking about it. These people really think this isn’t going to happen to them.  And then they stop yelling at you when they get intubated. It’s like a fucking horror movie that never ends. There’s no credits that roll. You just go back and do it all over again.

[Travis]

South Korea has had a mask mandate for months. This week they've attached a fine to it. On the announcement on our base's FB page someone said "I don't miss Korea." Someone replied to him "we don't miss you either." A quick scan of the former's FB page is a nonstop list of 2A, Confederate, Muslim Libtards, and all the other stereotypical conservative tropes. We've kept our infection rate at 100 per day with masks and this guy wants to complain about it. Wherever he's at in the US, they're probably getting that many infections every hour.

[Glenstache]

This is the only Coronavirus thread I follow. This may fit better in another thread. If anyone thinks so, feel free to let me know (or just cross-post yourself, if you like).

I saw this short twitter thread posted by a nurse earlier today and it makes me inexpressibly sad and bewildered.

I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is Going to ruin the USA. All while gasping for breath on 100% Vapotherm.  They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that “stuff” because they don’t have COViD because it’s not real. Yes. This really happens. And I can’t stop thinking about it. These people really think this isn’t going to happen to them.  And then they stop yelling at you when they get intubated. It’s like a fucking horror movie that never ends. There’s no credits that roll. You just go back and do it all over again.

That tweet spread fast.
https://www.newsandguts.com/er-nurse-says-some-people-deny-they-have-covid-while-on-their-death-beds/

Reading the comments on the increased restriction news stories provides the lead in to these cases. The willful ignorance and choice of conspiracy narrative over easily verifiable fact is truly saddening and disheartening. This winter is going to be rough in areas where this type of thinking is widespread. I also fear for what it will do to vaccination rates once they are actually available. Maybe it's just because it is a dark cold rainy Monday morning, but I feel pretty pessimistic about the USA's ability to make rational choices right now, and fear for what that means over the coming months.

[meghan88]

Canada is also well into its second wave.  Sigh.

It's interesting that (other than Quebec, which has never had covid under control from the start) the worst hit provinces for the second wave are all governed by Conservatives.  Not sure if this is a coincidence or indicative of something in the style of governance.

We could start a whole new thread on this.  Deep sigh this time.

It says as much, or more, about the electorate than it does the style of governance.

[RetiredAt63]

Canada is also well into its second wave.  Sigh.

It's interesting that (other than Quebec, which has never had covid under control from the start) the worst hit provinces for the second wave are all governed by Conservatives.  Not sure if this is a coincidence or indicative of something in the style of governance.

We could start a whole new thread on this.  Deep sigh this time.

It says as much, or more, about the electorate than it does the style of governance.

And demographics.  In Ontario most people live in the GTA or Golden Triangle or whatever you want to call the Toronto/Hamilton area. So whoever is popular there does well at election time.  The rest of us might as well not exist at times.

[JGS1980]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/11/18/sweden-coronavirus-surge-policy/

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/5/20

1. Belgium [1062] +100 -2nd wave another HUGE bump for Belgium
2. Peru [1047] +11
3. Spain [823] +65 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration as well
4. Brazil [757] +13
5. Chile [751] +19
6. Bolivia [747] +5
7. USA [725] +21 death rate accelerating. Each death/million translates to about 300 USA deaths in the previous week.
8. Mexico [720] +22
9. Argentina [717] +54 -still rising rapidly. Technically first wave in Argentina, I think
10. Ecuador [716] +5
11. UK [702]  +20 -2nd wave still accelerating
12. Italy [665] +38 -2nd wave
13. Panama [633] +19
14. Colombia [627] +25
15. France [598] +50 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration
16. Sweden [593] +7 -second wave has begun in Sweden as well as predicted above (If this follows the rest of Europe, it will lead to 12 and then 25, and then 50 in the next 4-5 weeks)
 
***Biggest movers last week were Belgium, Spain, Argentina, and France. Italy and UK close behind. Meanwhile I'm all but certain that on average at least 1000 US citizens will be dying daily for at least the next 6 weeks.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/12/20

1. Belgium [1158] +96
2. Peru [1056] +9
3. Spain [858] +35 -rapid deceleration in pain is encouraging
4. Brazil [769] +12
5. Chile [767]+3
6. Argentina [757] +40 -still rising rapidly.
7. USA [746] +21 again
8. UK [739] +37 -2nd wave still accelerating in the UK
9. Bolivia [751] +4
10. Mexico [741] +21
11. Ecuador [727] +11
12. Italy [711] +46 -2nd wave still accelerating in Italy
13. France [651] +53 -2nd wave
14. Colombia [650] +23 -decelerating in Columbia
15. Panama [633] +18
16. Sweden [604] +11 -second wave accelerating in Sweden continues. I predicted 12 (we got 11 deaths/million this week, if trend continues will be 23-25 or so next week, and then approx 45-50 in the 2 weeks after).

*Note that I'm not including smallish countries less than 4 Million or so. This is fairly arbitrary on my part. The next up and coming country is Czechia with >10 million people and a death rate of >550/million.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/19/20

1. Belgium [1294] +136
2. Peru [1068] +12
3. Spain [899] +41
4. Argentina [801] +44
5. Italy [792] +81 -2nd wave with scary acceleration (Italy all the way up to #5 from #12 in just 1 week!)
6. UK [791] +52 -2nd wave
7. Brazil [786] +17
8. Chile [780] +13
9. USA [774] +28 with concerning acceleration (+>40 next week?). I feel that half the country is trying to mitigate things, so that leads to a lower acceleration rate than the 2nd wave in Europe.
10. Mexico [769] +28
11. Bolivia [756] +5
12. Ecuador [736] +9
13. France [715] +64 -2nd wave with continued acceleration
14. Colombia [677] +27
15. Panama [670] +37 -doubled in rate
*** Sweden [626] +22 [predicted was +23-25. Probably 40+ in another week]

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.

[Glenstache]

Thanks for keeping up on these posts JGS. This week's post is particularly poignant not only for the trajectory of the numbers but because one of those 9403 in the last week was my father's partner. I'd never met her for a variety of reasons, but it is still close to home.  My SO and I have cancelled our holiday plans for the foreseeable future. I see far too many people in my circle proceeding with holiday plans. I fear for what early-mid December are going to look like with the likely outcome of Thanksgiving get togethers.

[Hvillian]

Damn Glenstache, very sorry for your father's loss.  As a stats guy, it is easy to find the data and comparisons interesting, while doing my best to forgot the unbelievable tragedy and truly staggering number of deaths.   

[LaineyAZ]

Damn Glenstache, very sorry for your father's loss.  As a stats guy, it is easy to find the data and comparisons interesting, while doing my best to forgot the unbelievable tragedy and truly staggering number of deaths.

Likewise.  And I've noticed that some news broadcasts are now showing profiles of individuals who recently died of Covid-19.  I thought it was a great way to personalize this pandemic because the numbers alone can be too sterile and overwhelming.

[Abe]

Estimated excess mortality per the CDC is now over 300k, approaching 350k. Some rural academic hospitals are making covid palliative care units to avoid using up limited ventilators, something NYC didn’t have to do due to the large number of hospitals in the area. Many local hospitals are running out of room and transferring only stable intubated patients to the main hospitals since they may actually survive. The Houston area is at 97% ICU capacity for all patients, 20% covid. Normally run at 80% capacity pre-COVID. New hospitalizations are up 50% (150/day from 100/day). If you go to a rural area for the holidays do not plan on having hospital access for non-Covid emergencies. The death curve will start climbing in earnest now.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Estimated excess mortality per the CDC is now over 300k, approaching 350k. Some rural academic hospitals are making covid palliative care units to avoid using up limited ventilators, something NYC didn’t have to do due to the large number of hospitals in the area. Many local hospitals are running out of room and transferring only stable intubated patients to the main hospitals since they may actually survive. The Houston area is at 97% ICU capacity for all patients, 20% covid. Normally run at 80% capacity pre-COVID. New hospitalizations are up 50% (150/day from 100/day). If you go to a rural area for the holidays do not plan on having hospital access for non-Covid emergencies. The death curve will start climbing in earnest now.

Oh yeah, and happy Thanksgiving!!  OMG

[Life in Balance]

Estimated excess mortality per the CDC is now over 300k, approaching 350k. Some rural academic hospitals are making covid palliative care units to avoid using up limited ventilators, something NYC didn’t have to do due to the large number of hospitals in the area. Many local hospitals are running out of room and transferring only stable intubated patients to the main hospitals since they may actually survive. The Houston area is at 97% ICU capacity for all patients, 20% covid. Normally run at 80% capacity pre-COVID. New hospitalizations are up 50% (150/day from 100/day). If you go to a rural area for the holidays do not plan on having hospital access for non-Covid emergencies. The death curve will start climbing in earnest now.

Does the estimated excess mortality include the 250,000 Covid deaths or are they in addition to that number?  Just trying to understand how undercounted the number of deaths attributed to the epidemic is.

[JGS1980]

I’m so sorry Glenstache.

[Abe]

Estimated excess mortality per the CDC is now over 300k, approaching 350k. Some rural academic hospitals are making covid palliative care units to avoid using up limited ventilators, something NYC didn’t have to do due to the large number of hospitals in the area. Many local hospitals are running out of room and transferring only stable intubated patients to the main hospitals since they may actually survive. The Houston area is at 97% ICU capacity for all patients, 20% covid. Normally run at 80% capacity pre-COVID. New hospitalizations are up 50% (150/day from 100/day). If you go to a rural area for the holidays do not plan on having hospital access for non-Covid emergencies. The death curve will start climbing in earnest now.

Does the estimated excess mortality include the 250,000 Covid deaths or are they in addition to that number?  Just trying to understand how undercounted the number of deaths attributed to the epidemic is.

That figure includes confirmed covid deaths. It likely represents mostly non-confirmed covid deaths as they follow the peaks in cases per region quite closely, along with the expected age groups. They may include some deaths from cardiac causes and stroke due to delayed care, but that will take a long time to sort out retrospectively.

[JGS1980]

Turkey Day Edition of the Coronavirus Weekly Update

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I have some turkey and pumpkin pie in my system, so I'm ready to tackle this now.

JGS

------------------------------------------------------------

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/29/20

1. Peru [1036] +11
2. Belgium [962] +54 -2nd wave HUGE bump for Belgium
3. Spain [758] +23 -2nd wave accelerating
4. Brazil [744] +14
5. Bolivia [742] +12
6. Chile [732] +12
7. Ecuador [711] +6
8. USA [704] +17
9. Mexico [698] +22
10. UK [672]  +20 -2nd wave accelerating
11. Argentina [663] +56 -still rising rapidly
12. Italy [627] +17 -2nd wave accelerating
13. Panama [614] +15
14. Colombia [602] +25
15. Sweden [586] +0 -is second wave of deaths coming in the next 1-3 weeks for Sweden? We will see.
16. France [548] +27 -2nd wave accelerating

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/5/20

1. Belgium [1062] +100 -2nd wave another HUGE bump for Belgium
2. Peru [1047] +11
3. Spain [823] +65 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration as well
4. Brazil [757] +13
5. Chile [751] +19
6. Bolivia [747] +5
7. USA [725] +21 death rate accelerating. Each death/million translates to about 300 USA deaths in the previous week.
8. Mexico [720] +22
9. Argentina [717] +54 -still rising rapidly. Technically first wave in Argentina, I think
10. Ecuador [716] +5
11. UK [702]  +20 -2nd wave still accelerating
12. Italy [665] +38 -2nd wave
13. Panama [633] +19
14. Colombia [627] +25
15. France [598] +50 -2nd wave HUGE acceleration
16. Sweden [593] +7 -second wave has begun in Sweden as well as predicted above (If this follows the rest of Europe, it will lead to 12 and then 25, and then 50 in the next 4-5 weeks)
 
***Biggest movers last week were Belgium, Spain, Argentina, and France. Italy and UK close behind. Meanwhile I'm all but certain that on average at least 1000 US citizens will be dying daily for at least the next 6 weeks.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 16 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/12/20

1. Belgium [1158] +96
2. Peru [1056] +9
3. Spain [858] +35 -rapid deceleration in pain is encouraging
4. Brazil [769] +12
5. Chile [767]+3
6. Argentina [757] +40 -still rising rapidly.
7. USA [746] +21 again
8. UK [739] +37 -2nd wave still accelerating in the UK
9. Bolivia [751] +4
10. Mexico [741] +21
11. Ecuador [727] +11
12. Italy [711] +46 -2nd wave still accelerating in Italy
13. France [651] +53 -2nd wave
14. Colombia [650] +23 -decelerating in Columbia
15. Panama [633] +18
16. Sweden [604] +11 -second wave accelerating in Sweden continues. I predicted 12 (we got 11 deaths/million this week, if trend continues will be 23-25 or so next week, and then approx 45-50 in the 2 weeks after).

*Note that I'm not including smallish countries less than 4 Million or so. This is fairly arbitrary on my part. The next up and coming country is Czechia with >10 million people and a death rate of >550/million.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/19/20

1. Belgium [1294] +136
2. Peru [1068] +12
3. Spain [899] +41
4. Argentina [801] +44
5. Italy [792] +81 -2nd wave with scary acceleration (Italy all the way up to #5 from #12 in just 1 week!)
6. UK [791] +52 -2nd wave
7. Brazil [786] +17
8. Chile [780] +13
9. USA [774] +28 with concerning acceleration (+>40 next week?). I feel that half the country is trying to mitigate things, so that leads to a lower acceleration rate than the 2nd wave in Europe.
10. Mexico [769] +28
11. Bolivia [756] +5
12. Ecuador [736] +9
13. France [715] +64 -2nd wave with continued acceleration
14. Colombia [677] +27
15. Panama [670] +37 -doubled in rate
*** Sweden [626] +22 [predicted was +23-25. Probably 40+ in another week]
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/26/20

1. Belgium [1385] +91
2. Peru [1079] +11
3. Spain [949] +50 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths (I think)
4. Italy [875] +83 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
5. UK [838] +47 -2nd wave
6. Argentina [836] +35
7. USA [812] +38 -with continued scary acceleration
8. Brazil [805] +19
9. Mexico [800] +31
10. Chile [794] +14
11. France [780 715] +65 -2nd wave reaching peak deaths
12. Bolivia [761] +5
13. Ecuador [750] +14
14. Czechia [723] *new to top 15
15. Colombia [705] +28
16. Panama [691] +21
17.*** Sweden [654] +28 [predicted +40, so they are mitigating things and there was lots of press about this in the international news, congrats Sweden on seeing the light] 
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!

[geekette]

Yikes is right.

Everyone I know is staying home except my 85 year old mother and sister who are visiting my nephew and his fiancé. <sigh>

[GuitarStv]

I wonder if the covid bump after Thanksgiving is a blessing in disguise.  It may encourage people to take it more seriously for Christmas/New Years.

[JGS1980]

I wonder if the covid bump after Thanksgiving is a blessing in disguise.  It may encourage people to take it more seriously for Christmas/New Years.

Einstein fallacy. I think more likely that people will do the same exact thing and hopefully expect a different result.

[marty998]

North Dakota just passed 10% of the population having tested positive.

South Dakota not far behind that.

If they’re gunning for herd immunity they’re going to lose a lot of family and friends along the way...

[Bloop Bloop Reloaded]

Fascinating stats, thanks for compiling!

[Abe]

Another state graph update. This one is Y-scaled equally across all states, and per 100k population. Some of these Midwest states are being hit harder, per 100k population, than many of the Northeast states were in the spring.

Here are the % of total state population with a confirmed COVID-19 since March 2020:

10.0   North Dakota
8.6   South Dakota
7.1   Iowa
6.8   Wisconsin
6.4   Nebraska
5.8   Utah
5.6   Montana
5.5   Illinois
5.4   Idaho
5.3   Wyoming
5.2   Kansas
5.1   Minnesota
5.1   Arkansas
5.1   Tennessee
5.0   Mississippi
4.9   Rhode Island
4.9   Alabama
4.9   Missouri
4.9   Louisiana
4.8   Indiana
4.7   Nevada
4.7   Oklahoma
4.5   Florida
4.3   Arizona
4.3   New Mexico
4.2   Texas
4.2   Georgia
4.1   South Carolina
4.1   Alaska
3.8   Kentucky
3.8   Colorado
3.7   New Jersey
3.5   Michigan
3.4   Delaware
3.3   North Carolina
3.3   Ohio
3.2   New York
3.2   Maryland
3.1   Massachusetts
3.1   Connecticut
3.0   California
2.9   District of Columbia
2.7   Virginia
2.7   Pennsylvania
2.6   Puerto Rico
2.5   West Virginia
2.1   Washington
1.7   Oregon
1.4   New Hampshire
1.2   Hawaii
0.8   Maine
0.6   Vermont