There should be a lower overall death rate this year. If everyone is travelling less, there won’t be as many deaths on the roads. If everyone is playing less sport there won’t be the sports injuries that there were. If people aren’t having drunken parties there won’t be as many deaths. If people are self distancing, there won’t be as many deaths from other diseases where contact causes infection.
USA had 2,839,205 deaths in 2018 per the CDC. If 2020 deaths end up >500K higher despite having 150K confirmed Covid19 deaths, that will be very revealing.
I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
This is just about our % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.
I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
I thought this too, but somewhat alarmingly, it seems like the US is just at peak testing capacity: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fxuzm2/coronavirus_dr_fauci_says_us_may_begin_to_reopen/fmwuy1u/I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
This is just about our % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.
I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
As of 4/9/20, USA now has 16129 deaths as compared to 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
Another way to look at this is that 1940 people died yesterday from Coronavirus, making it the #1 cause of death right now in the USA. Ahead of heart disease and cancer. Also, lots of news reports about sudden "cardiac arrest" in NYC and New Orleans that are occuring at 5-6 times the normal rate. All very discouraging overall. That being said, with our imperfect data, the curve is flattening faster than I would have predicted 2 weeks ago, so I'll take it.
The plateau in new cases per day (around 30,000) seems to be limited by how many tests are performed.So basically, it might be flattening, but we still don't really know yet. Not enough data.
Simply put, if tests are limited to 150,000 with 20% positives a plateau is hit at 30,000 new cases a day.
Below I've shown how this tracks with the last 10 days of US historical data on testing from https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily
I calculated the postives percentage as the most recent Positive / Total Tests (423,164 / 2,195,771 = 19.3%).
Date Positive Negative Total Tests New Tests New Cases New Tests x 19.3%
------ -------- --------- ----------- --------- --------- -----------------
08 Apr 423,164 1,772,607 2,195,771 141,309 30,570 27,272
07 Apr 392,594 1,661,868 2,054,462 146,105 31,263 28,198
06 Apr 361,331 1,547,026 1,908,357 146,325 29,023 28,240
05 Apr 332,308 1,429,724 1,762,032 137,685 26,553 26,573
04 Apr 305,755 1,318,592 1,624,347 227,485 33,767 43,904
03 Apr 271,988 1,124,874 1,396,862 129,114 32,889 24,919
02 Apr 239,099 1,028,649 1,267,748 117,742 28,283 22,724
01 Apr 210,816 939,190 1,150,006 101,122 26,133 19,516
31 Mar 184,683 864,201 1,048,884 104,030 24,153 20,077
30 Mar 160,530 784,324 944,854 113,503 21,469 21,906
This highlights the importance of widespread, large-scale testing. Without it:
New cases appear to plateau leading to a false sense of security
Deaths are undercounted due to undiagnosed cases
Projection models are less accurate (garbage in garbage out)
I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.
On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.
I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.
On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.
The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up. A lot. While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510
I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.
On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.
The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up. A lot. While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510
My husband told me that he read a report yesterday saying that in our metro area, deaths from car accidents are twice as high as normal. Speculation is that there are fewer people on the highways/freeways, so more dumbshits out there treating them like a race car track.
Sigh...
I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.
On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.
The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up. A lot. While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510
My husband told me that he read a report yesterday saying that in our metro area, deaths from car accidents are twice as high as normal. Speculation is that there are fewer people on the highways/freeways, so more dumbshits out there treating them like a race car track.
Sigh...
https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-cuts-car-crashes-but-what-about-crash-rates/
Raw totals are down, but *rates* are up.
I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.
On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.
The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up. A lot. While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510
I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.
On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.
The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up. A lot. While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510
My husband told me that he read a report yesterday saying that in our metro area, deaths from car accidents are twice as high as normal. Speculation is that there are fewer people on the highways/freeways, so more dumbshits out there treating them like a race car track.
Sigh...
https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-cuts-car-crashes-but-what-about-crash-rates/
Raw totals are down, but *rates* are up.
Aha, thanks for that article.
So, in Minnesota, where I live, both car crashes and crash fatalities have more than doubled since the virus began to accelerate in the state.
24 crashes and 28 road deaths in Minnesota between March 16 and April 7 this year, compared to 12 crashes and 13 deaths the year prior.
The link they give for MN is likely the article my husband read yesterday.
https://kstp.com/traffic/fatal-crashes-spike-during-stay-at-home-order-on-minnesota-roadways-april-8-2020/5696384/
I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.
On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.
So basically, it might be flattening, but we still don't really know yet. Not enough data.
I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
This is just about our % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.
I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
As of 4/9/20, USA now has 16129 deaths as compared to 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
Another way to look at this is that 1940 people died yesterday from Coronavirus, making it the #1 cause of death right now in the USA. Ahead of heart disease and cancer. Also, lots of news reports about sudden "cardiac arrest" in NYC and New Orleans that are occuring at 5-6 times the normal rate. All very discouraging overall. That being said, with our imperfect data, the curve is flattening faster than I would have predicted 2 weeks ago, so I'll take it.
I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
This is just about our % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.
I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
As of 4/9/20, USA now has 16129 deaths as compared to 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
Another way to look at this is that 1940 people died yesterday from Coronavirus, making it the #1 cause of death right now in the USA. Ahead of heart disease and cancer. Also, lots of news reports about sudden "cardiac arrest" in NYC and New Orleans that are occuring at 5-6 times the normal rate. All very discouraging overall. That being said, with our imperfect data, the curve is flattening faster than I would have predicted 2 weeks ago, so I'll take it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 4/16/20, USA now has 32826 deaths [doubled in the last week] as compared to 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
And yet the mortality analyses on the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center website shows the USA is doing better on that measure than Belgium, the UK, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Spain. Other countries, notably Germany and Canada, look like they are doing better.
And yet the mortality analyses on the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center website shows the USA is doing better on that measure than Belgium, the UK, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Spain. Other countries, notably Germany and Canada, look like they are doing better.
What specific mortality analyses are you referring to?
Case Fatality? Deaths per Capita?
I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
This is just about our % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.
I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
As of 4/9/20, USA now has 16129 deaths as compared to 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
Another way to look at this is that 1940 people died yesterday from Coronavirus, making it the #1 cause of death right now in the USA. Ahead of heart disease and cancer. Also, lots of news reports about sudden "cardiac arrest" in NYC and New Orleans that are occuring at 5-6 times the normal rate. All very discouraging overall. That being said, with our imperfect data, the curve is flattening faster than I would have predicted 2 weeks ago, so I'll take it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 4/16/20, USA now has 32826 deaths [doubled in the last week] as compared to 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
Here's another way at looking at the data:
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million]
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [540]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Here's another way at looking at the data:
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million]
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
And for context: China is currently at 3 deaths per million (based on info from the same source).
Here's another way at looking at the data:
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million]
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [540]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
And for context: China is currently at 3 deaths per million (based on info from the same source).
Here's another way at looking at the data:
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million]
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [540]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
And for context: China is currently at 3 deaths per million (based on info from the same source).
Tbh, not sure why anyone is trusting #s out of China.
China’s constantly shifting methodology for tabulating the number of cases of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 has led it to greatly understate the numbers, and the true tally may be four times the official figures, according to a new study by researchers in Hong Kong.
The study, created by academics at the Hong Kong University School of Public Health and published in the Lancet, found that more than 230,000 people were likely infected in the first wave of the outbreak, whereas official Chinese data recorded just 55,000 cases as of Feb. 20.
Audrey Whitlock posted to the ReOpen NC Facebook page early Sunday saying her two-week quarantine was ending. She described herself as an “an asymptomatic COVID19 positive patient.”
Whitlock is one of the administrators of the ReOpen NC Facebook page – which has helped organize two protests in downtown Raleigh calling for Gov. Roy Cooper to lift his stay-at-home order.
In Whitlock’s post, she wrote about how the restrictions put in place amid the COVID-19 pandemic are violating her First Amendment rights as well as her 5th and 14th Amendment rights.
She said she was “forced” to quarantine which violated her First Amendment rights.
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]
QuoteTop 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]
Moving up the ladder. Will USA take the gold medal?
QuoteTop 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]
Moving up the ladder. Will USA take the gold medal?
Part of the reason for Ireland and Belgium having such high rates is a difference in the way they are reporting the numbers. Some countries only report those who have had a positive lab test and then died of COVID-19 as Coronavirus deaths, some include anyone with it, even if they actually died of something else (e.g heart attack); some countries only record deaths that take place in hospitals and not those who die from COVID-19 at home.QuoteTop 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]
Moving up the ladder. Will USA take the gold medal?
I'm actually really surprised Ireland is up so high. Notwithstanding all the links with Britain and the European Union, as an island you would expect they might have been able to close the airports and ports pretty quickly to get it under control.
I haven't sought any news as to why they have been hit as hard as they have (the news seems to be dominated overwhelmingly by the US), but I am curious about this one.
...
Russia's total number of cases will soon be in 2nd place to the USA, but their death rate is unbelievably low. This means they are lying (or better at medicine than the rest of the world by an order of magnitude).
...
The UK may end up in 2nd place in a couple weeks as well, very alarming rise in deaths.
BECA,
If you compare early US data to current Russia data, you will see that when USA had 250K cases, it already had 30,000 deaths in early April.
Russia currently has 250K cases, and only has 2418 official deaths.
I suspect Russia's outbreak isn't early at all. They just didn't test early and hoped this would go away (sound familiar). Now they are catching up with testing so the recent run up in their cases is a reflection of just doing a lot more tests, not the actual incidence of the disease. Most of the deaths of the 1st month of their outbreak just weren't identified or counted. Nice to be a dictator in control of everything.
Just a random internet person's epidemiologic analysis,
JGS
The UK may end up in 2nd place in a couple weeks as well, very alarming rise in deaths.
Btw, the UK is likely *underreporting* deaths based on all cause mortality rates in excess of the most recent 5-year average.
BECA,
If you compare early US data to current Russia data, you will see that when USA had 250K cases, it already had 30,000 deaths in early April.
Russia currently has 250K cases, and only has 2418 official deaths.
I suspect Russia's outbreak isn't early at all. They just didn't test early and hoped this would go away (sound familiar). Now they are catching up with testing so the recent run up in their cases is a reflection of just doing a lot more tests, not the actual incidence of the disease. Most of the deaths of the 1st month of their outbreak just weren't identified or counted. Nice to be a dictator in control of everything.
Just a random internet person's epidemiologic analysis,
JGS
Or maybe it's the better vodka and stronger genes. ;)
The UK may end up in 2nd place in a couple weeks as well, very alarming rise in deaths.
Btw, the UK is likely *underreporting* deaths based on all cause mortality rates in excess of the most recent 5-year average.
In fairness I don't know of any country where reported coronavirus deaths are keeping up with how many deaths it looks like the virus is actually causing (based on excess all cause mortality).
BECA,The situation in Russia is under control. My cousin reported that everyone was given masks...and they all keep their masks in their pockets just in case they need them later while cramming onto the marshrutka.
If you compare early US data to current Russia data, you will see that when USA had 250K cases, it already had 30,000 deaths in early April.
Russia currently has 250K cases, and only has 2418 official deaths.
I suspect Russia's outbreak isn't early at all. They just didn't test early and hoped this would go away (sound familiar). Now they are catching up with testing so the recent run up in their cases is a reflection of just doing a lot more tests, not the actual incidence of the disease. Most of the deaths of the 1st month of their outbreak just weren't identified or counted. Nice to be a dictator in control of everything.
Just a random internet person's epidemiologic analysis,
JGS
Perhaps slightly off topic to this thread, but interesting to note that countries with leaders widely-viewed as "far right" are, uh, skyrocketing and filling up the top 5 in terms of worldwide confirmed cases.
Perhaps slightly off topic to this thread, but interesting to note that countries with leaders widely-viewed as "far right" are, uh, skyrocketing and filling up the top 5 in terms of worldwide confirmed cases.
And curiously enough, the countries you listed make up some of the most populous countries. Perhaps the population size of a country strongly correlates to the number of infections and deaths when dealing with a virus with exponential growth?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population#Sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_population
The UK was in a particular bad spot because of poor choices coupled with very few ventilators:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-ventilator/uk-has-8000-ventilators-and-another-8000-on-the-way-junior-minister-says-idUKKBN21D0VF
Perhaps slightly off topic to this thread, but interesting to note that countries with leaders widely-viewed as "far right" are, uh, skyrocketing and filling up the top 5 in terms of worldwide confirmed cases.
The countries you listed make up some of the most populous countries. Perhaps the population size of a country strongly correlates to the number of infections and deaths when dealing with a virus with exponential growth?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population#Sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_population
The UK was in a particular bad spot because of poor choices coupled with very few ventilators:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-ventilator/uk-has-8000-ventilators-and-another-8000-on-the-way-junior-minister-says-idUKKBN21D0VF
Let that sink in: 43% of all COVID-19 deaths are taking place in facilities that house 0.62% of the U.S. population.
And 43% could be an undercount. States like New York exclude from their nursing home death tallies those who die in a hospital, even if they were originally infected in an assisted living facility. Outside of New York, more than half of all deaths from COVID-19 are of residents in long-term care facilities.
| State | Last Updated | Nursing Home COVID Deaths | State COVID Deaths | Nursing Home % of Death | COVID Nursing Home Death as % of 2017 Death |
| New York | May 25 | 5,980 | 23,488 | 25.50% | 5.90% |
| New Jersey | May 25 | 5,755 | 11,144 | 51.60% | 13.10% |
| Massachusetts | May 25 | 3,924 | 6,416 | 61.20% | 10.10% |
| Pennsylvania | May 22 | 3,302 | 4,984 | 66.20% | 4.30% |
| Connecticut | May 21 | 2,496 | 3,582 | 69.70% | 3.60% |
BECA,
If you compare early US data to current Russia data, you will see that when USA had 250K cases, it already had 30,000 deaths in early April.
Russia currently has 250K cases, and only has 2418 official deaths.
I suspect Russia's outbreak isn't early at all. They just didn't test early and hoped this would go away (sound familiar). Now they are catching up with testing so the recent run up in their cases is a reflection of just doing a lot more tests, not the actual incidence of the disease. Most of the deaths of the 1st month of their outbreak just weren't identified or counted. Nice to be a dictator in control of everything.
Just a random internet person's epidemiologic analysis,
JGS
I see also that Sweden seems hellbent on challenging their European counterparts in deaths per capita.
I'm enjoying your analysis, JGS1980! Nice summary/comparisons week over week.
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20 -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20 -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69% ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20 -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20 -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40
*Brazil = Epicenter. Now #2 in deaths in the world. Has an outside chance of catching up to USA by October. Ecuador, Peru and Chile also getting destroyed right now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20 -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20 -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20 -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
*** I would like to point out that deaths per week have come down for 7 straight weeks, which is great! However, if you count new cases in the last 24 hours in just California/Texas/Florida/Arizone/N Carolina, then those 5 states combined would be # 3 in the whole world [aka we have some deaths headed our way in 2-6 weeks]
On death data for the US - I know NJ added another probable 2k ish covid deaths yesterday that got spread across the distribution on worldometers, so that could be part of the 9k increase you're seeing.
I used https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ which is showing ~131k US deaths. If you used a different source than Worldometers for US deaths, then the 6/25 count would be off.
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
I missed yesterday's update, as I was too busy enjoying a lovely day in a local state park! Sorry!I can't think of a much better excuse. Outside time should always take precedence.
Again, sorry for the late posting to the 2 people who actually read these updates!!!We'll let it slide as long as it is done by Friday at noon. And I am pretty sure there are many more than two of us that appreciate you compiling this data.
Also an appreciative lurker. I am afraid to see if there is a detectable downstream effect of the Sturgis rally (and other shenanigans) in the weeks to come.
Some of those states have a very large discrepancy between number of cases and deaths. Have they stopped counting, is it a time lag, or are the infected younger and healthier and therefore surviving? Does anyone know how the hospital situation looks in states like Indiana, Colorado and Minnesota?
And that is legal in the USA because?
Some of those states have a very large discrepancy between number of cases and deaths. Have they stopped counting, is it a time lag, or are the infected younger and healthier and therefore surviving? Does anyone know how the hospital situation looks in states like Indiana, Colorado and Minnesota?
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas, the state’s death toll from all causes has soared by thousands above historical averages — a sobering spike that experts say reveals the true toll of the disease.
Between the beginning of the local pandemic and the end of July, 95,000 deaths were reported in Texas, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Based on historical mortality records and predictive modeling, government epidemiologists would have expected to see about 82,500 deaths during that time.
The CDC attributed more than 7,100 deaths to COVID-19, but that leaves roughly 5,500 more than expected and with no identified tie to the pandemic.
The CDC’s chief of mortality, Dr. Bob Anderson, said these “excess deaths” are likely from a range of pandemic-related problems, including misclassifications because doctors did not initially understand the many ways that COVID-19 affects the circulatory system and results in a stroke or a heart attack.
I see all of the meticulous numbers and careful parsing of the data, then read an article like this - https://www.expressnews.com/news/politics/texas_legislature/article/Turns-out-Texas-Gov-Abbott-s-key-metric-in-15498291.phpI work in a large company with noisy/bad/missing data so I'm used to this stuff. Looking at something like worldometer and covidtracking.com it's not hard to triangulate approximately what was/is going on from testing, cases, hospitalization, and deaths. Add the occasional serology survey and a few papers on epidemiological models and it's not so confusing anymore. Regarding Texas, I read this twice (https://covidtracking.com/blog/something-is-wrong-with-testing-data-in-the-great-state-of-texas/) before giving up trying to understand what is going on. TX is not a necessary data point to see that the herd immunity threshold is much, much lower than 1-1/R0 and has been stalling the epidemic in many countries and US states. The end of the epidemic tends to be marked by a long, rather uniformly linear drop in average deaths/day (example (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)). The US might be just starting to see the very beginning of that trend, while hospitalizations began their linear drop 4 weeks ago: R^2= 0.99 and a slope indicating average declines of 670/day in hospitalizations. This ultra-simple analysis predicts an end to the severe part of the US epidemic before December.
The virus truly is in control, because we don't really know what's going on to an acceptable level. And we keep doing things that will likely make the situation worse (like sending everyone back to school).
Public health officials are assuming that there’s going to be an uptick in covid during the flu season (tends to happen with respiratory illnesses, including coronaviruses, and there’s no reason to think that covid-19 is unique in that regard). Your analysis doesn’t include this factor in predicting the end of the epidemics. I do agree we should have a linear downtrend over the next few months until the next uptick.Covered in caveat #2 but the key inference I'm leveraging is that the US will be at herd immunity before the flu season, which would plausibly diminish the size of a winter resurgence. But as the saying goes: predictions are hard, especially about the future.
Public health officials are assuming that there’s going to be an uptick in covid during the flu season (tends to happen with respiratory illnesses, including coronaviruses, and there’s no reason to think that covid-19 is unique in that regard). Your analysis doesn’t include this factor in predicting the end of the epidemics. I do agree we should have a linear downtrend over the next few months until the next uptick.Covered in caveat #2 but the key inference I'm leveraging is that the US will be at herd immunity before the flu season, which would plausibly diminish the size of a winter resurgence. But as the saying goes: predictions are hard, especially about the future.
An interesting thing's been happening here with our flu season. It more or less doesn't exist this year. It started off bad in February, and looked like we'd have a bad flu season, but as soon as covid19 struck it went down. Australian flu cases in a normal year is just under 100k and about 700 deaths. We've had 36 deaths so far this season
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm#current
They were worried that with flu and covid19 hitting together, our hospitals would be completely overwhelmed, so they had a big campaign to get everyone immunized - and had the biggest flu vaccine uptake ever. Hopefully, northern hemisphere countries will also find that the covid19 restrictions have a similar effect.
The lowest estimate I've seen is at 10% and a recent Science paper suggested 43%, iirc--lots of other stuff in between. Starting with death totals, estimating an IFR, then imputing actual infections seems to get us to an implied 20-30% HIT for countries/states that have seen the rate of spread stall out. Serology under-estimates cases as well, as shown, e.g., by the recent paper from the Karolinska Institute (many recovered patients who had asymptomatic or mild infection test negative for antibodies but have t cell immunity). My estimate for US infections to date is 40-60 million.Public health officials are assuming that there’s going to be an uptick in covid during the flu season (tends to happen with respiratory illnesses, including coronaviruses, and there’s no reason to think that covid-19 is unique in that regard). Your analysis doesn’t include this factor in predicting the end of the epidemics. I do agree we should have a linear downtrend over the next few months until the next uptick.Covered in caveat #2 but the key inference I'm leveraging is that the US will be at herd immunity before the flu season, which would plausibly diminish the size of a winter resurgence. But as the saying goes: predictions are hard, especially about the future.
That's quite true. There are some thoughts herd immunity is not 50-70% as predicted, some models suggest 40%. However there's no evidence to my knowledge that we are even approaching that amount (country-wide would be 120 million infected) outside of isolated pockets (Bronx, etc).
I see all of the meticulous numbers and careful parsing of the data, then read an article like this - https://www.expressnews.com/news/politics/texas_legislature/article/Turns-out-Texas-Gov-Abbott-s-key-metric-in-15498291.phpI work in a large company with noisy/bad/missing data so I'm used to this stuff. Looking at something like worldometer and covidtracking.com it's not hard to triangulate approximately what was/is going on from testing, cases, hospitalization, and deaths. Add the occasional serology survey and a few papers on epidemiological models and it's not so confusing anymore. Regarding Texas, I read this twice (https://covidtracking.com/blog/something-is-wrong-with-testing-data-in-the-great-state-of-texas/) before giving up trying to understand what is going on. TX is not a necessary data point to see that the herd immunity threshold is much, much lower than 1-1/R0 and has been stalling the epidemic in many countries and US states. The end of the epidemic tends to be marked by a long, rather uniformly linear drop in average deaths/day (example (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)). The US might be just starting to see the very beginning of that trend, while hospitalizations began their linear drop 4 weeks ago: R^2= 0.99 and a slope indicating average declines of 670/day in hospitalizations. This ultra-simple analysis predicts an end to the severe part of the US epidemic before December.
The virus truly is in control, because we don't really know what's going on to an acceptable level. And we keep doing things that will likely make the situation worse (like sending everyone back to school).
Comparison countries/US states with high numbers of infections where the epidemic has largely ended:
Country, Peak deaths/day, Deaths/day 3 months later
Sweden, 99, 10
UK, 943, 29
Spain, 866, 6
Italy, 817, 20
Belgium, 333, 2
France, 975, 15
NY state, 956, 26
NJ state, 316, 17 (or 11 since it had a double-peak)
MA state, 174, 16
CT state, 114, 3
The above suggests the decline will result in deaths falling to 1-10% of peak rate in 3 months. The US is a multi-region administrative mess so we should expect the rate of decline to be on the slow side--perhaps <100 deaths/day by the start of December. This yields the following results:
Cumulative US deaths by election day: 226K
Cumulative deaths by the end of 2020: 231K
Caveats:
1. the US epidemic is a set of separate stacked regional and state epidemics that is leading to a broader peak in daily deaths (also: American Exceptionalism)
2. therapeutics are improving, though the approach of winter may not help (or maybe summer was worse due to heat >> air-conditioning >> staying indoors in diminished humidity)
3. epidemiology isn't my day-job and you should probably listen to people who think about this more than a few hours per week if I sound batty
You are right that Rt=1 can be approached from two sides (lowering susceptibles to some threshold as in herd immunity, or changing behavior to reduce close-contact interactions). Clearly, both factors are at play in driving Rt down. The empirical linchpin for me to assess a higher weight on a low herd immunity threshold was the FL case count trend. There is no way Floridians can exhibit any self-control [Exhibit A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG47i-zn8kA), Exhibit B (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHVAZvsXQeM)]. There is a large part of the US where there is zero cultural inclination to change behavior for more than a month or two. I work in a building (not in Florida) with 1,000 people and they don't wear masks and slobber on each other all day. There is a cluster or two or three (they don't tell us) of cases and one of my employees tested positive for antibodies last week. Everyone here stopped caring back in June.I see all of the meticulous numbers and careful parsing of the data, then read an article like this - https://www.expressnews.com/news/politics/texas_legislature/article/Turns-out-Texas-Gov-Abbott-s-key-metric-in-15498291.phpI work in a large company with noisy/bad/missing data so I'm used to this stuff. Looking at something like worldometer and covidtracking.com it's not hard to triangulate approximately what was/is going on from testing, cases, hospitalization, and deaths. Add the occasional serology survey and a few papers on epidemiological models and it's not so confusing anymore. Regarding Texas, I read this twice (https://covidtracking.com/blog/something-is-wrong-with-testing-data-in-the-great-state-of-texas/) before giving up trying to understand what is going on. TX is not a necessary data point to see that the herd immunity threshold is much, much lower than 1-1/R0 and has been stalling the epidemic in many countries and US states. The end of the epidemic tends to be marked by a long, rather uniformly linear drop in average deaths/day (example (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)). The US might be just starting to see the very beginning of that trend, while hospitalizations began their linear drop 4 weeks ago: R^2= 0.99 and a slope indicating average declines of 670/day in hospitalizations. This ultra-simple analysis predicts an end to the severe part of the US epidemic before December.
The virus truly is in control, because we don't really know what's going on to an acceptable level. And we keep doing things that will likely make the situation worse (like sending everyone back to school).
Comparison countries/US states with high numbers of infections where the epidemic has largely ended:
Country, Peak deaths/day, Deaths/day 3 months later
Sweden, 99, 10
UK, 943, 29
Spain, 866, 6
Italy, 817, 20
Belgium, 333, 2
France, 975, 15
NY state, 956, 26
NJ state, 316, 17 (or 11 since it had a double-peak)
MA state, 174, 16
CT state, 114, 3
The above suggests the decline will result in deaths falling to 1-10% of peak rate in 3 months. The US is a multi-region administrative mess so we should expect the rate of decline to be on the slow side--perhaps <100 deaths/day by the start of December. This yields the following results:
Cumulative US deaths by election day: 226K
Cumulative deaths by the end of 2020: 231K
Caveats:
1. the US epidemic is a set of separate stacked regional and state epidemics that is leading to a broader peak in daily deaths (also: American Exceptionalism)
2. therapeutics are improving, though the approach of winter may not help (or maybe summer was worse due to heat >> air-conditioning >> staying indoors in diminished humidity)
3. epidemiology isn't my day-job and you should probably listen to people who think about this more than a few hours per week if I sound batty
Thanks for adding interesting input to the discussion, Lost in the Endless.
I would caution you to make assumptions on Herd Immunity so early in this process (I hope you are right, but I wouldn't bet on it -> and if you are wrong, hundreds of thousands more people can die!).
Remember that those current levels of success in European countries reflect continued social isolation policies. Although no longer fully on lock down, a lot of those policies remain. People are still scared and making their decisions accordingly. Also, as things slowly open up in a step-wise fashion, we've seen how Covid cases can rise dramatically, even exponentially even in the countries that were previously hardest hit. This leads to secondary lock downs.
Please closely look at the Spain and France daily Covid case data points and tell me what you think. Italy is not so far behind either, although like NYC the Lombardy region may be closer to Herd immunity than a lot of places.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
Assumption #3 is very important. My SO is good friends with someone who truly is a world class epidemiologist who has specifically emerged as an expert in covid and has been advising major organizations on how to handle covid (not being coy, but they have requested anonymity for a variety of reasons related to our current political climate, unfortunately). I asked SO what they would say if asked the question about what should be expected through the fall and winter as they have discussed covid at length. Her one line response, "It is going to get worse."I have a day-job that fills me to near-satiety for analytics so I admit: not me! The implications of the observed heterogeneities in susceptibility and in transmissibility intuitively drive HIT down, but I'm not going to get out of my armchair to study the detailed math, e.g. this (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1.full.pdf), which is of course a far more rigorous way of doing the sort of epidemiological curve fitting that I believe I intuited from the time-series data on deaths, etc.
The only way that I can see herd immunity happening at numbers as low as 40% is if the individual R number is very low due to quarantine and rigorous social distancing. Really, herd immunity is just dilution that reduces the number of potential contacts between infected and susceptible people (and at 100%, simply no more people left to get infected, I guess). At numbers as low as 40% this seems like it would be very susceptible to repeat outbreaks as social distancing rules are relaxed. Has anyone read the papers in enough detail (not just the abstract) and with enough subject matter expertise to understand those underlying assumptions? (honest question).
I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.
I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.
Immunity may have little to do with Italy and New York's situation. People are a bit more likely to stop fucking around and actually follow public health recomendations when they have first hand experience how important it is to do so, and know some of the dead who didn't.
I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.
Immunity may have little to do with Italy and New York's situation. People are a bit more likely to stop fucking around and actually follow public health recomendations when they have first hand experience how important it is to do so, and know some of the dead who didn't.
Anyone have thoughts or citations on the feasibility of T-cell immunity from other coronaviruses working against Covid 19?
If that were the case would that help reach herd immunity faster?
I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.
Anyone have thoughts or citations on the feasibility of T-cell immunity from other coronaviruses working against Covid 19?
If that were the case would that help reach herd immunity faster?
I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.
T-cells against one coronavirus have some limited activity against others. Also, many people have some circulating level of antibiodies to other coronaviruses. That's why some of these antibody tests are overestimates of the true prevalence of COVID-19, since they cross-react with the endemic coronavirus antibodies. My university did a study to evaluate this and found most people have some underlying antibodies to the endemic coronaviruses, and very few had the more specific anti COVID-19 antibodies (indicating true prior or ongoing infection). The paper is being written so I can't give more details than that at this time.
This phenomenon is true in most virus families, and SARS-CoV-2 isn't that different from SARS-CoV-1 and other coronaviruses. This is why the majority of patients don't die of overwhelming sepsis. The initial antiviral response is initiated by NK cells, but generic T cells to non-specific viral proteins activate quickly while we wait for more specific clones to ramp up.
I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.
Immunity may have little to do with Italy and New York's situation. People are a bit more likely to stop fucking around and actually follow public health recomendations when they have first hand experience how important it is to do so, and know some of the dead who didn't.
This is my belief, too (that people here are not fucking around with the virus, not that they are immune). In Connecticut, we've had a mask mandate since April, and I'd say over 95% of people here are pretty consistent about wearing them. The only place I've traveled to since March is New York (upstate and Long Island), and the place is pretty well plastered with signs about wearing masks and social distancing (as is Connecticut), and people seem to be taking it seriously.
Yes. Mask compliance here in Wayne County, Michigan is pretty good. We were hit pretty hard back in March/April. In more rural and Republican parts of the state, compliance is poorer because people haven't been faced with the consequences to the same degree.
Anyone have thoughts or citations on the feasibility of T-cell immunity from other coronaviruses working against Covid 19?
If that were the case would that help reach herd immunity faster?
I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.
T-cells against one coronavirus have some limited activity against others. Also, many people have some circulating level of antibiodies to other coronaviruses. That's why some of these antibody tests are overestimates of the true prevalence of COVID-19, since they cross-react with the endemic coronavirus antibodies. My university did a study to evaluate this and found most people have some underlying antibodies to the endemic coronaviruses, and very few had the more specific anti COVID-19 antibodies (indicating true prior or ongoing infection). The paper is being written so I can't give more details than that at this time.
This phenomenon is true in most virus families, and SARS-CoV-2 isn't that different from SARS-CoV-1 and other coronaviruses. This is why the majority of patients don't die of overwhelming sepsis. The initial antiviral response is initiated by NK cells, but generic T cells to non-specific viral proteins activate quickly while we wait for more specific clones to ramp up.
Interesting....thanks for sharing. Do you take this as a good sign or bad. Seems like a good thing if the underlying antibodies are giving time for the specific ones to ramp up right? if I'm understanding correctly.
Don't know if you can say more but does the underlying antibody still help prevent COVID-19 or no; or still unknown?
I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.
Immunity may have little to do with Italy and New York's situation. People are a bit more likely to stop fucking around and actually follow public health recomendations when they have first hand experience how important it is to do so, and know some of the dead who didn't.
This is my belief, too (that people here are not fucking around with the virus, not that they are immune). In Connecticut, we've had a mask mandate since April, and I'd say over 95% of people here are pretty consistent about wearing them. The only place I've traveled to since March is New York (upstate and Long Island), and the place is pretty well plastered with signs about wearing masks and social distancing (as is Connecticut), and people seem to be taking it seriously.Yes. Mask compliance here in Wayne County, Michigan is pretty good. We were hit pretty hard back in March/April. In more rural and Republican parts of the state, compliance is poorer because people haven't been faced with the consequences to the same degree.
Maryland had/has an early Mask mandate in early April as well and compliance has been pretty good in public.
BUT compared to April/May there is way way more people getting together for friend/family gatherings at private homes with little/no mask wearing. I assume that's the same everywhere but maybe not. That's where I wondered if some herd immunity was helping.
Have those of you in the NY/NJ/CT seen/heard much of that with the private people gathering in larger groups, BBQ's , B-day parties,etc. or does that all still seem pretty limited?
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608] -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7
***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609] +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [512] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [491] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0
QuoteTop 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608] -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7
***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609] +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [512] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [491] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0
What's with the lack of change in the sections I bolded?
I assumed it was just you copy/pasted and missed updating those 2, but the numbers the next week don't jive with the increases. Then again, some data gets retconned, so ?
USA % of the worldwide population. 331 Million of 7.8 Billion = 4.24%
3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20 -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20 -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69% ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20 -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20 -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647]
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657] +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352] -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664] +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670] +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677] +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683] +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15
*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.
**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608] -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7
***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609] +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610] +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray
*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20
1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611] +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33 *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Columbia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14
*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20 -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20 -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20 -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20 -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018 [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
I actually really like the wall of text.
Can you start rolling off some of the earlier dates? Maybe make it a 2-3 month update as opposed to the 'wall of text'? These posts are full of facts and figures that are repeated and readily available in your earlier posts. Just an idea. Thanks otherwise for the interesting update.
anyone know how much of the late peak in SD is due to Sturgis? I read a news article about the first death linked back to the gathering, but have not seen any systematic analysis. Much of the US response feels like watching a train wreck in slow motion. You don't want to see it, but can't look away.
Sure that didn’t help, but there was an uptick in the upper Midwest before the motorcycle rally.
Sure that didn’t help, but there was an uptick in the upper Midwest before the motorcycle rally.
All the more reason to avoiding clustering an additional 400,000 people in one small town during a pandemic.
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20
1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611] +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33 *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Columbia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14
*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.
Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.” This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that (i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and (ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell. Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates). We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion.
On a philosophical note: have we reached past the “tragedy” phase to the “statistic” phase of deaths?You're past the "statistic" phase already.
Did anyone do a comparable spead and cost analysis from the nationwide protest similar to the one they did for Sturgis?
I dont think any single protest had 400,000 people but certainty all of them combined probaly did.On a philosophical note: have we reached past the “tragedy” phase to the “statistic” phase of deaths?You're past the "statistic" phase already.
You are in the "Meh, it is what it is" phase.
It does seem that way. We are back to seeing some friends and family; daughters back to playing softball; lots of people traveling; dining out etc.
Biggest change for our family still is school. My wife is a teacher and I have an 8 and 10 year old. All 3 of them virtual schooling has been really hard :/
I'm hoping the in person school in other states goes well so MD may consider a hybrid or something for 2nd semester.
We'll see.
Possibly. Your prediction of a decrease in deaths over the short term has been accurate. The IHME model projects a rebound in the fall. Hopefully not as bad as they anticipate, but they were fairly accurate for the count so far.Actually, since making my mini-predictions, I have read up on some of the modeling and the story looks very, very bad (https://covid19-projections.com/model-comparison-ihme) for the IHME team which seems to be careening all over the place and getting it all wrong. Youyang Gu seems to be the man to follow and he doesn't feel comfortable predicting through the end of 2020 yet given what is known about seasonality.
On a philosophical note: have we reached past the “tragedy” phase to the “statistic” phase of deaths?
If my math is right, this week's count of US deaths is currently under-reported by ~600 due to Labor Day (or maybe the virus gets that day off too?). If they all get counted by tomorrow, I wonder if we see headlines like "Daily covid deaths surge to 1,500!" More likely, they will be spread over the next few days and tomorrow's total will closer to 1,200.Coronavirus news: US daily death toll from COVID-19 shoots back up over 1,000
The Trump administration has directed hospitals to stop reporting COVID-19 data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Healthcare Safety Network.
Instead, starting Wednesday, they have been told to send capacity and utilization information – including patient numbers, remdesivir inventory and bed and ventilator usage rates – to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through the new HHS Protect system.
I still worry about the reporting - https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/white-house-hospitals-bypass-cdc-report-covid-19-data-directly-hhsQuoteThe Trump administration has directed hospitals to stop reporting COVID-19 data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Healthcare Safety Network.
Instead, starting Wednesday, they have been told to send capacity and utilization information – including patient numbers, remdesivir inventory and bed and ventilator usage rates – to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through the new HHS Protect system.
Are we really sure that the change did not affect anything? In my (oil and gas production) company, when you change the reporting, you get a totally different story about how great oil production currently is or how the last person screwed everything up but things are getting better. Just saying, in my experience, politicizing data is possible and statistics are easy to 're-interpret' with an asterisk, revised framework, etc. Especially under these circumstances...
It's outright insane to suspect Trump is the head of a vast conspiracy stretching all the way down to the level of local hospitals and county health departments. The numbers are reported to the states which both publish them directly and funnel them to HHS in the required format. Unless everything down to hospital admissions and ICU bed utilization is faked, it's unreasonable to think the HHS reporting change mattered beyond a few irrelevant details for the overall measurement of the progression of the epidemic.I still worry about the reporting - https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/white-house-hospitals-bypass-cdc-report-covid-19-data-directly-hhsQuoteThe Trump administration has directed hospitals to stop reporting COVID-19 data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Healthcare Safety Network.
Instead, starting Wednesday, they have been told to send capacity and utilization information – including patient numbers, remdesivir inventory and bed and ventilator usage rates – to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through the new HHS Protect system.
Are we really sure that the change did not affect anything? In my (oil and gas production) company, when you change the reporting, you get a totally different story about how great oil production currently is or how the last person screwed everything up but things are getting better. Just saying, in my experience, politicizing data is possible and statistics are easy to 're-interpret' with an asterisk, revised framework, etc. Especially under these circumstances...
Are you suggesting that President Trump may not be trustworthy regarding coronavirus information? Especially when he stands to personally gain in the short term by misreporting data? The man who told us that it was no big deal, that China had everything under control, who directly contradicted his experts on TV, who said that the US had everything under control, that tests are available to anyone who wants them, that the disease will disappear in the summer, that unproven drugs are a cure, that injecting bleach is a cure . . .
I am shocked at this allegation sir. Simply shocked.
Which experts told him to encourage people to put bleach in their bodies? Or "strong lights"? it was a classic example of someone making suggestions off the cuff and revealing how little they truly know about how these things work. In aggregate, he has listened to experts (such as Fauci) begrudgingly and sidelined them for yes-men when he does not hear what he wants to. TDS is a natural response to the way that Trump is proceeding. I'm fine with people liking some of the conservative actions that have come out of Congress, but Trump's record on covid has to be looked at pretty hard to find bright spots.It's outright insane to suspect Trump is the head of a vast conspiracy stretching all the way down to the level of local hospitals and county health departments. The numbers are reported to the states which both publish them directly and funnel them to HHS in the required format. Unless everything down to hospital admissions and ICU bed utilization is faked, it's unreasonable to think the HHS reporting change mattered beyond a few irrelevant details for the overall measurement of the progression of the epidemic.I still worry about the reporting - https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/white-house-hospitals-bypass-cdc-report-covid-19-data-directly-hhsQuoteThe Trump administration has directed hospitals to stop reporting COVID-19 data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Healthcare Safety Network.
Instead, starting Wednesday, they have been told to send capacity and utilization information – including patient numbers, remdesivir inventory and bed and ventilator usage rates – to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through the new HHS Protect system.
Are we really sure that the change did not affect anything? In my (oil and gas production) company, when you change the reporting, you get a totally different story about how great oil production currently is or how the last person screwed everything up but things are getting better. Just saying, in my experience, politicizing data is possible and statistics are easy to 're-interpret' with an asterisk, revised framework, etc. Especially under these circumstances...
Are you suggesting that President Trump may not be trustworthy regarding coronavirus information? Especially when he stands to personally gain in the short term by misreporting data? The man who told us that it was no big deal, that China had everything under control, who directly contradicted his experts on TV, who said that the US had everything under control, that tests are available to anyone who wants them, that the disease will disappear in the summer, that unproven drugs are a cure, that injecting bleach is a cure . . .
I am shocked at this allegation sir. Simply shocked.
This week, I called my health clinic and had a drive-up specimen collected within 20 hours. 20 hours later I had a result. I could tell from the scheduling options that they were well under capacity in terms of what could be handled by the current system.
Some states do have logjams but the only other one I have personal accounts on is in CA. A friend of mine gets tested occasionally even though she has no symptoms or close contact when she needs to work with (elderly or particularly anxious) clients. Turnaround time for her is also less than 24 hours.
Regarding it disappearing in the summer, that was based on the early IHME model. That modelling team might be a bunch of glue-sniffers, it turns out, but Trump was listening to experts at the time. It just turned out to be the wrong experts, which is a different category of error.
Note that I'm not waging a full-throated defense of Trump; I'm just sick of TDS dictating every single opinion on the matter. Keep it up and we will have Trump 2020, Ivanka 2024 & 2028, etc.
Unless there is some ward of Tuskegee Bleach Men his comments in a press conference are hardly material. My boss asks me about dumb stuff all the time and I say "sure, I'll look into that" and then deftly tell him later that his idea is bad. Trump had a stupid idea but deferred to what the doctors would say about it and of course his administration did not end up recommending bleach or isopropyl alcohol injections as a treatment! There are plenty of better places to criticize if you are looking for actual substance.Which experts told him to encourage people to put bleach in their bodies? Or "strong lights"? it was a classic example of someone making suggestions off the cuff and revealing how little they truly know about how these things work. In aggregate, he has listened to experts (such as Fauci) begrudgingly and sidelined them for yes-men when he does not hear what he wants to. TDS is a natural response to the way that Trump is proceeding. I'm fine with people liking some of the conservative actions that have come out of Congress, but Trump's record on covid has to be looked at pretty hard to find bright spots.It's outright insane to suspect Trump is the head of a vast conspiracy stretching all the way down to the level of local hospitals and county health departments. The numbers are reported to the states which both publish them directly and funnel them to HHS in the required format. Unless everything down to hospital admissions and ICU bed utilization is faked, it's unreasonable to think the HHS reporting change mattered beyond a few irrelevant details for the overall measurement of the progression of the epidemic.I still worry about the reporting - https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/white-house-hospitals-bypass-cdc-report-covid-19-data-directly-hhsQuoteThe Trump administration has directed hospitals to stop reporting COVID-19 data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Healthcare Safety Network.
Instead, starting Wednesday, they have been told to send capacity and utilization information – including patient numbers, remdesivir inventory and bed and ventilator usage rates – to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through the new HHS Protect system.
Are we really sure that the change did not affect anything? In my (oil and gas production) company, when you change the reporting, you get a totally different story about how great oil production currently is or how the last person screwed everything up but things are getting better. Just saying, in my experience, politicizing data is possible and statistics are easy to 're-interpret' with an asterisk, revised framework, etc. Especially under these circumstances...
Are you suggesting that President Trump may not be trustworthy regarding coronavirus information? Especially when he stands to personally gain in the short term by misreporting data? The man who told us that it was no big deal, that China had everything under control, who directly contradicted his experts on TV, who said that the US had everything under control, that tests are available to anyone who wants them, that the disease will disappear in the summer, that unproven drugs are a cure, that injecting bleach is a cure . . .
I am shocked at this allegation sir. Simply shocked.
This week, I called my health clinic and had a drive-up specimen collected within 20 hours. 20 hours later I had a result. I could tell from the scheduling options that they were well under capacity in terms of what could be handled by the current system.
Some states do have logjams but the only other one I have personal accounts on is in CA. A friend of mine gets tested occasionally even though she has no symptoms or close contact when she needs to work with (elderly or particularly anxious) clients. Turnaround time for her is also less than 24 hours.
Regarding it disappearing in the summer, that was based on the early IHME model. That modelling team might be a bunch of glue-sniffers, it turns out, but Trump was listening to experts at the time. It just turned out to be the wrong experts, which is a different category of error.
Note that I'm not waging a full-throated defense of Trump; I'm just sick of TDS dictating every single opinion on the matter. Keep it up and we will have Trump 2020, Ivanka 2024 & 2028, etc.
Note that I'm not waging a full-throated defense of Trump; I'm just sick of TDS dictating every single opinion on the matter. Keep it up and we will have Trump 2020, Ivanka 2024 & 2028, etc.Boy it gets tiring hearing that we must all pussy foot around and not point out the idiocy that is there for all but the wilfully blind to see or else our harsh words will end up being the cause of Trump being re-elected.
...
Note that I'm not waging a full-throated defense of Trump; I'm just sick of TDS dictating every single opinion on the matter. Keep it up and we will have Trump 2020, Ivanka 2024 & 2028, etc.
My point is people are drowning out the actual problems and issues by taking such a polarized & non-nuanced stance to everything the Trump administration does. To keep it somewhat on topic, do we want to talk about Hydroxychloroquine for example? I first heard about it on Medcram (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M) a week or two before Trump ever uttered its name. "Interesting," I thought. As soon as Trump mentions it as a possible treatment, out comes the vitriol and mockery. The point is not whether or not HCQ works; the point is that early in the pandemic with few effective anti-virals in existence, that it was something with some theoretical and empirical plausibility in terms of efficacy and was worth trying (interestingly, HCQ remains the standard of care in at least a handful of countries to this day, even though the clinical trials have been wildly inconclusive).Note that I'm not waging a full-throated defense of Trump; I'm just sick of TDS dictating every single opinion on the matter. Keep it up and we will have Trump 2020, Ivanka 2024 & 2028, etc.Boy it gets tiring hearing that we must all pussy foot around and not point out the idiocy that is there for all but the wilfully blind to see or else our harse words will end up being the cause of Trump being re-elected.
Frankly if Trump is re-elected it is because a significant portion of the citizenry of the USA are absolute freakingly stupid idiots.
Just own it already.
I agree that these are at least better criticisms, though regarding the "lying" characterization, Trump framed that rather transparently as a display of optimism in one press conference in March:...
Note that I'm not waging a full-throated defense of Trump; I'm just sick of TDS dictating every single opinion on the matter. Keep it up and we will have Trump 2020, Ivanka 2024 & 2028, etc.
I appreciate your full answer and reasoning, but I'd argue I'm feeling TPTSD after hearing the Woodward tapes where Trump coherently states in February that this is much worse than the flu and is airborne (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/politics/trump-woodward-tapes-michigan/index.html). In his own voice, he knew what was coming. And yet, at the same time, he's telling the public (using his patented 'hand wave') that this will just 'wash through', and it's no worse than the seasonal flu - which surprised him how bad it was (even though he guessed 3x higher than how bad it historically has been) - and that it was just going to go away in the Spring. Boldfaced, repeated lies. And now he's on the record that he believes that leaders should intentionally mislead so as not to cause a panic. So yeah, I have a hard time trusting data that goes through the White House.
I also have a hard time trusting Trump on getting the vaccine properly vetted before distribution. If Trump is the guy in charge of convincing the public that the Covid vaccine is safe and effective, I think the roll-out will be disastrous.
It looks like a lot of good, hard work on the Sturgis analysis but I'm very skeptical on the synthetic control selection criteria. The method seems to presuppose we understand which factors matter and by how much in determining epidemic progression. I would argue that we're far from that point and that the criteria may easily: 1) be improperly weighted, 2) be missing important factors, or 3) include irrelevant factors. It would have been interesting to have more discussion on the output's sensitivity to these input assumptions. If the output is robust over a spread of different plausible selection criteria of synthetic controls, then I would be more convinced.Link is to a study of how Sturgis rally may have impacted the home communities. Looks like a proportionate response to contribution of attendees with a 7 to 12% increase in the cases for the highest-contributing counties.
http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf
Here is the abstract. I should note that I can't vouch for the quality of the article as it is not my area of expertise.QuoteLarge in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.” This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that (i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and (ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell. Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates). We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion.
Looks like the article is getting a fair amount of criticism/skepticism.
https://www.aier.org/article/the-sturgis-bike-rally-sensationalist-reporting-and-broken-disease-models/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-superspreader-johns-hopkins-research-doubt/
I don't know anything about the "aier" but Hopkins seems pretty reputable.
Quote from the Aier article:
Dr. Dowd sums this up more eloquently when she writes
“Exaggerated headlines and cherry-picking of results for “I told you so” media moments can dangerously undermine the long-term integrity of the science—something we can little afford right now.”
------------------
Speaking of mass gatherings anyone see the NFL game last night with ~17,000 fans?
Curious whether other football (or other sports) will follow suit with that or if stadiums will stay empty. Certainly a lot of people; but presumably more from the same locale vs the travelers like Sturgis. Also probably easier to remain vigilant about masking and social distance for 3-6 hours vs 7 days for an event like Sturgis.
I guess in a couple weeks we'll see if Kansas city has an uptick. Looks like there are only 1-2 other teams allowing fans Sunday.
It looks like a lot of good, hard work on the Sturgis analysis but I'm very skeptical on the synthetic control selection criteria. The method seems to presuppose we understand which factors matter and by how much in determining epidemic progression. I would argue that we're far from that point and that the criteria may easily: 1) be improperly weighted, 2) be missing important factors, or 3) include irrelevant factors. It would have been interesting to have more discussion on the output's sensitivity to these input assumptions. If the output is robust over a spread of different plausible selection criteria of synthetic controls, then I would be more convinced.
I still think an event at the scale and style of Sturgis was a bad idea and it may be hard to ever truly know the health impact. However, considering the fact riding on a motorcycle is almost 30 times more dangerous per vehicle-mile than by car, are we surprised that people embracing such a mode of transport have a high tolerance for risk? Simply driving from Florida to Sturgis and back via motorcycle carries an average risk of death of 0.1% (influenza!). How many motorcyclists die in accidents in a typical year on the the way to or from Sturgis? Using some basic assumptions, I come up with a death toll of 200 per year! (Disclaimer: I have no idea but maybe many participants travel there by auto with a motorcycle in tow, which would change this estimate)
...
I also have a hard time trusting Trump on getting the vaccine properly vetted before distribution. If Trump is the guy in charge of convincing the public that the Covid vaccine is safe and effective, I think the roll-out will be disastrous.
The CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports are authored by career scientists and serve as the main vehicle for the agency to inform doctors, researchers and the general public about how Covid-19 is spreading and who is at risk. Such reports have historically been published with little fanfare and no political interference, said several longtime health department officials, and have been viewed as a cornerstone of the nation's public health work for decades.
But since Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign official with no medical or scientific background, was installed in April as the Health and Human Services department's new spokesperson, there have been substantial efforts to align the reports with Trump's statements, including the president's claims that fears about the outbreak are overstated, or stop the reports altogether.
...
Caputo's team also has tried to halt the release of some CDC reports, including delaying a report that addressed how doctors were prescribing hydroxychloroquine, the malaria drug favored by Trump as a coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence. The report, which was held for about a month after Caputo’s team raised questions about its authors’ political leanings, was finally published last week. It said that "the potential benefits of these drugs do not outweigh their risks."
It's outright insane to suspect Trump is the head of a vast conspiracy stretching all the way down to the level of local hospitals and county health departments. The numbers are reported to the states which both publish them directly and funnel them to HHS in the required format. Unless everything down to hospital admissions and ICU bed utilization is faked, it's unreasonable to think the HHS reporting change mattered beyond a few irrelevant details for the overall measurement of the progression of the epidemic.
Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/11/exclusive-trump-officials-interfered-with-cdc-reports-on-covid-19-412809)QuoteThe CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports are authored by career scientists and serve as the main vehicle for the agency to inform doctors, researchers and the general public about how Covid-19 is spreading and who is at risk. Such reports have historically been published with little fanfare and no political interference, said several longtime health department officials, and have been viewed as a cornerstone of the nation's public health work for decades.
But since Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign official with no medical or scientific background, was installed in April as the Health and Human Services department's new spokesperson, there have been substantial efforts to align the reports with Trump's statements, including the president's claims that fears about the outbreak are overstated, or stop the reports altogether.
...
Caputo's team also has tried to halt the release of some CDC reports, including delaying a report that addressed how doctors were prescribing hydroxychloroquine, the malaria drug favored by Trump as a coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence. The report, which was held for about a month after Caputo’s team raised questions about its authors’ political leanings, was finally published last week. It said that "the potential benefits of these drugs do not outweigh their risks."
A flunky changing some adjectives in a MMWR report is not what I was suggesting as being unreasonable.It's outright insane to suspect Trump is the head of a vast conspiracy stretching all the way down to the level of local hospitals and county health departments. The numbers are reported to the states which both publish them directly and funnel them to HHS in the required format. Unless everything down to hospital admissions and ICU bed utilization is faked, it's unreasonable to think the HHS reporting change mattered beyond a few irrelevant details for the overall measurement of the progression of the epidemic.Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/11/exclusive-trump-officials-interfered-with-cdc-reports-on-covid-19-412809)QuoteThe CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports are authored by career scientists and serve as the main vehicle for the agency to inform doctors, researchers and the general public about how Covid-19 is spreading and who is at risk. Such reports have historically been published with little fanfare and no political interference, said several longtime health department officials, and have been viewed as a cornerstone of the nation's public health work for decades.
But since Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign official with no medical or scientific background, was installed in April as the Health and Human Services department's new spokesperson, there have been substantial efforts to align the reports with Trump's statements, including the president's claims that fears about the outbreak are overstated, or stop the reports altogether.
...
Caputo's team also has tried to halt the release of some CDC reports, including delaying a report that addressed how doctors were prescribing hydroxychloroquine, the malaria drug favored by Trump as a coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence. The report, which was held for about a month after Caputo’s team raised questions about its authors’ political leanings, was finally published last week. It said that "the potential benefits of these drugs do not outweigh their risks."
lol
Outright insane and unreasonable, huh?
A flunky changing some adjectives in a MMWR report is not what I was suggesting as being unreasonable.It's outright insane to suspect Trump is the head of a vast conspiracy stretching all the way down to the level of local hospitals and county health departments. The numbers are reported to the states which both publish them directly and funnel them to HHS in the required format. Unless everything down to hospital admissions and ICU bed utilization is faked, it's unreasonable to think the HHS reporting change mattered beyond a few irrelevant details for the overall measurement of the progression of the epidemic.Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/11/exclusive-trump-officials-interfered-with-cdc-reports-on-covid-19-412809)QuoteThe CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports are authored by career scientists and serve as the main vehicle for the agency to inform doctors, researchers and the general public about how Covid-19 is spreading and who is at risk. Such reports have historically been published with little fanfare and no political interference, said several longtime health department officials, and have been viewed as a cornerstone of the nation's public health work for decades.
But since Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign official with no medical or scientific background, was installed in April as the Health and Human Services department's new spokesperson, there have been substantial efforts to align the reports with Trump's statements, including the president's claims that fears about the outbreak are overstated, or stop the reports altogether.
...
Caputo's team also has tried to halt the release of some CDC reports, including delaying a report that addressed how doctors were prescribing hydroxychloroquine, the malaria drug favored by Trump as a coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence. The report, which was held for about a month after Caputo’s team raised questions about its authors’ political leanings, was finally published last week. It said that "the potential benefits of these drugs do not outweigh their risks."
lol
Outright insane and unreasonable, huh?
I agree meddling with MMWR was very bad.A flunky changing some adjectives in a MMWR report is not what I was suggesting as being unreasonable.It's outright insane to suspect Trump is the head of a vast conspiracy stretching all the way down to the level of local hospitals and county health departments. The numbers are reported to the states which both publish them directly and funnel them to HHS in the required format. Unless everything down to hospital admissions and ICU bed utilization is faked, it's unreasonable to think the HHS reporting change mattered beyond a few irrelevant details for the overall measurement of the progression of the epidemic.Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/11/exclusive-trump-officials-interfered-with-cdc-reports-on-covid-19-412809)QuoteThe CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports are authored by career scientists and serve as the main vehicle for the agency to inform doctors, researchers and the general public about how Covid-19 is spreading and who is at risk. Such reports have historically been published with little fanfare and no political interference, said several longtime health department officials, and have been viewed as a cornerstone of the nation's public health work for decades.
But since Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign official with no medical or scientific background, was installed in April as the Health and Human Services department's new spokesperson, there have been substantial efforts to align the reports with Trump's statements, including the president's claims that fears about the outbreak are overstated, or stop the reports altogether.
...
Caputo's team also has tried to halt the release of some CDC reports, including delaying a report that addressed how doctors were prescribing hydroxychloroquine, the malaria drug favored by Trump as a coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence. The report, which was held for about a month after Caputo’s team raised questions about its authors’ political leanings, was finally published last week. It said that "the potential benefits of these drugs do not outweigh their risks."
lol
Outright insane and unreasonable, huh?
It's still pretty scary just how far the government has been perverted in order to make Trump look 'better' in the face of historic failure. And yes, I do believe America could have done much, much better under a different administration.
@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Sorry to be disagreeable, but saying that the US could not have done better had it listened to what used to be lauded as leading institutions in the CDC, FDA, and domestic medical community... Saying that Australia, South Korea, and Canada set an example we weren't capable of, is just repugnant to me (yes, just my opinion). But I believe the US should have bottled this up in February and March with all of the information we had. Hell, I listened to NPR and knew in March that the Houston Rodeo was a terrible idea and needed to be shut down.I should emphasize I haven't done a forensic post-mortem of which advisor or health expert said what early on, but as a taste, here (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/12/dr_anthony_fauci_at_this_time_there_is_no_need_to_change_your_habits_over_coronavirus.html) is Fauci on February 29th: "Right now at this moment there is no need to change anything that you're doing on a day by day basis." At that point, Youyang Gu's model estimates there were already 110-220K (https://covid19-projections.com/) cumulative infections in the US (this is just 3 days after the first confirmed case of community spread in the US!). Less than 2 weeks later on March 13th, a national emergency is declared, and 4 days later on March 17th Trump asked the state governors to institute lockdowns. At that point, there were already an estimated 2.3M-4.6M cumulative infections in the US.
And the US should have been lending a helping hand to struggling countries this summer by providing needed masks and ventilators. Instead, we have been mired in what are now racial tensions, anti-mask controversies, etc. Politics are still burning the US just as devastatingly as the wildfires in CA. And yet where is the call for unity, the plea for Americans to stand together?
@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Sorry to be disagreeable, but saying that the US could not have done better had it listened to what used to be lauded as leading institutions in the CDC, FDA, and domestic medical community... Saying that Australia, South Korea, and Canada set an example we weren't capable of, is just repugnant to me (yes, just my opinion). But I believe the US should have bottled this up in February and March with all of the information we had. Hell, I listened to NPR and knew in March that the Houston Rodeo was a terrible idea and needed to be shut down.I should emphasize I haven't done a forensic post-mortem of which advisor or health expert said what early on, but as a taste, here (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/12/dr_anthony_fauci_at_this_time_there_is_no_need_to_change_your_habits_over_coronavirus.html) is Fauci on February 29th: "Right now at this moment there is no need to change anything that you're doing on a day by day basis." At that point, Youyang Gu's model estimates there were already 110-220K (https://covid19-projections.com/) cumulative infections in the US (this is just 3 days after the first confirmed case of community spread in the US!). Less than 2 weeks later on March 13th, a national emergency is declared, and 4 days later on March 17th Trump asked the state governors to institute lockdowns. At that point, there were already an estimated 2.3M-4.6M cumulative infections in the US.
And the US should have been lending a helping hand to struggling countries this summer by providing needed masks and ventilators. Instead, we have been mired in what are now racial tensions, anti-mask controversies, etc. Politics are still burning the US just as devastatingly as the wildfires in CA. And yet where is the call for unity, the plea for Americans to stand together?
Let's not forget the one big thing pretty much everyone got wrong was the tremendous variance in case severity that resulted in massive amounts of undetected spread, especially given these infections presented at the end of flu season. If the response was a problem particular with Trump then it doesn't explain why much of western Europe, Central & South America, etc. etc., faced a comparable situation around the same time or shortly thereafter.
In order to take the 'Murica out of Americans, it's clear the US should have elected Winston Churchill in 2016. I think what some may not get is how deep and structural the various stubborn attitudes of Americans are (I think it's even partially genetic but that's a bit of a tangent!). But with respect to masks, in the US, mask-wearing was more prevalent than in Canada, Germany, UK, and the Nordic countries (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-global-face-mask-adoption/) as of July, for example.@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Sorry to be disagreeable, but saying that the US could not have done better had it listened to what used to be lauded as leading institutions in the CDC, FDA, and domestic medical community... Saying that Australia, South Korea, and Canada set an example we weren't capable of, is just repugnant to me (yes, just my opinion). But I believe the US should have bottled this up in February and March with all of the information we had. Hell, I listened to NPR and knew in March that the Houston Rodeo was a terrible idea and needed to be shut down.I should emphasize I haven't done a forensic post-mortem of which advisor or health expert said what early on, but as a taste, here (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/12/dr_anthony_fauci_at_this_time_there_is_no_need_to_change_your_habits_over_coronavirus.html) is Fauci on February 29th: "Right now at this moment there is no need to change anything that you're doing on a day by day basis." At that point, Youyang Gu's model estimates there were already 110-220K (https://covid19-projections.com/) cumulative infections in the US (this is just 3 days after the first confirmed case of community spread in the US!). Less than 2 weeks later on March 13th, a national emergency is declared, and 4 days later on March 17th Trump asked the state governors to institute lockdowns. At that point, there were already an estimated 2.3M-4.6M cumulative infections in the US.
And the US should have been lending a helping hand to struggling countries this summer by providing needed masks and ventilators. Instead, we have been mired in what are now racial tensions, anti-mask controversies, etc. Politics are still burning the US just as devastatingly as the wildfires in CA. And yet where is the call for unity, the plea for Americans to stand together?
Let's not forget the one big thing pretty much everyone got wrong was the tremendous variance in case severity that resulted in massive amounts of undetected spread, especially given these infections presented at the end of flu season. If the response was a problem particular with Trump then it doesn't explain why much of western Europe, Central & South America, etc. etc., faced a comparable situation around the same time or shortly thereafter.
It spread fast, and local events had a big influence. Quebec is our worst hit province, basically because their spring break was early and people travelled and brought it home. A few weeks later other provinces knew how easily it spread and spring break travel pretty much didn't happen.
Trump may have gone for lockdown March 17, but he basically later downplayed it and from I can see a lot of Americans didn't take the lockdown seriously, just like now lots are not wearing masks (such an easy preventative) and lots aren't respecting social distancing and restricted group size.
CDC update on excess deaths doesn't look great: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Still having about 6-8k excess deaths per week. Interestingly, this number has not trended consistently downward even though confirmed COVID-19 deaths have been decreasing. Current estimates on total excess deaths are between 192,000 - 252,000. At this rate we're looking at about 300k deaths before the end of the year.
@lost_in_the_endless_aisle thank you for your replies. I try to be careful to state where I'm only expressing my opinion.I understand. I go to work everyday among 1,000 usually-unmasked mouth-breathers. I got sick last week and got a test (negative: strange time to get my first cold in 7 years though!). My aunt died last month--likely of covid--in Russia; Russia is probably actually covering up cases.
I have witnessed a lot of personal disruption (my job, and my wife is a substitute teacher, and the school system is a mess), and death (my son's GF had a niece that passed away, and our neighbor got Covid, an ASM in our Scout Troop got Covid (neither died, but were in the hospital), and a neighbor's Mom passed away from Covid). It is hard to be impartial when literally 'life is on the line', as well as the possibility of being permanently injured.
To be honest, dying in 14 or so days worries me less than permanently losing my cardiovascular health - but it's more likely that I would have some lung damage yet 'survive'. In that sense, to me, this disease is very much like polio. And it would just be terrible to know that I could be healthy if only the government put their citizen's needs before their own need to be re-elected or 'look good'.
And putting citizen's need first is what I do not trust Trump to do. Not by a long shot.
@lost_in_the_endless_aisle thank you for your replies. I try to be careful to state where I'm only expressing my opinion.I understand. I go to work everyday among 1,000 usually-unmasked mouth-breathers. I got sick last week and got a test (negative: strange time to get my first cold in 7 years though!). My aunt died last month--likely of covid--in Russia; Russia is probably actually covering up cases.
I have witnessed a lot of personal disruption (my job, and my wife is a substitute teacher, and the school system is a mess), and death (my son's GF had a niece that passed away, and our neighbor got Covid, an ASM in our Scout Troop got Covid (neither died, but were in the hospital), and a neighbor's Mom passed away from Covid). It is hard to be impartial when literally 'life is on the line', as well as the possibility of being permanently injured.
To be honest, dying in 14 or so days worries me less than permanently losing my cardiovascular health - but it's more likely that I would have some lung damage yet 'survive'. In that sense, to me, this disease is very much like polio. And it would just be terrible to know that I could be healthy if only the government put their citizen's needs before their own need to be re-elected or 'look good'.
And putting citizen's need first is what I do not trust Trump to do. Not by a long shot.
One if the reasons I spend time here is that people can disagree and still discuss. I get at a lot from that and appreciate it. Even beyond disagreement, smart people bring smart, thought out perspectives ( often backed up by solid analysis) that adds depth. So, yes, another internet hug.@lost_in_the_endless_aisle thank you for your replies. I try to be careful to state where I'm only expressing my opinion.I understand. I go to work everyday among 1,000 usually-unmasked mouth-breathers. I got sick last week and got a test (negative: strange time to get my first cold in 7 years though!). My aunt died last month--likely of covid--in Russia; Russia is probably actually covering up cases.
I have witnessed a lot of personal disruption (my job, and my wife is a substitute teacher, and the school system is a mess), and death (my son's GF had a niece that passed away, and our neighbor got Covid, an ASM in our Scout Troop got Covid (neither died, but were in the hospital), and a neighbor's Mom passed away from Covid). It is hard to be impartial when literally 'life is on the line', as well as the possibility of being permanently injured.
To be honest, dying in 14 or so days worries me less than permanently losing my cardiovascular health - but it's more likely that I would have some lung damage yet 'survive'. In that sense, to me, this disease is very much like polio. And it would just be terrible to know that I could be healthy if only the government put their citizen's needs before their own need to be re-elected or 'look good'.
And putting citizen's need first is what I do not trust Trump to do. Not by a long shot.
*internet hug*
sincere thanks for this conversation
CDC update on excess deaths doesn't look great: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Still having about 6-8k excess deaths per week. Interestingly, this number has not trended consistently downward even though confirmed COVID-19 deaths have been decreasing. Current estimates on total excess deaths are between 192,000 - 252,000. At this rate we're looking at about 300k deaths before the end of the year.
In order to take the 'Murica out of Americans, it's clear the US should have elected Winston Churchill in 2016. I think what some may not get is how deep and structural the various stubborn attitudes of Americans are (I think it's even partially genetic but that's a bit of a tangent!). But with respect to masks, in the US, mask-wearing was more prevalent than in Canada, Germany, UK, and the Nordic countries (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-global-face-mask-adoption/) as of July, for example.@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Sorry to be disagreeable, but saying that the US could not have done better had it listened to what used to be lauded as leading institutions in the CDC, FDA, and domestic medical community... Saying that Australia, South Korea, and Canada set an example we weren't capable of, is just repugnant to me (yes, just my opinion). But I believe the US should have bottled this up in February and March with all of the information we had. Hell, I listened to NPR and knew in March that the Houston Rodeo was a terrible idea and needed to be shut down.I should emphasize I haven't done a forensic post-mortem of which advisor or health expert said what early on, but as a taste, here (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/12/dr_anthony_fauci_at_this_time_there_is_no_need_to_change_your_habits_over_coronavirus.html) is Fauci on February 29th: "Right now at this moment there is no need to change anything that you're doing on a day by day basis." At that point, Youyang Gu's model estimates there were already 110-220K (https://covid19-projections.com/) cumulative infections in the US (this is just 3 days after the first confirmed case of community spread in the US!). Less than 2 weeks later on March 13th, a national emergency is declared, and 4 days later on March 17th Trump asked the state governors to institute lockdowns. At that point, there were already an estimated 2.3M-4.6M cumulative infections in the US.
And the US should have been lending a helping hand to struggling countries this summer by providing needed masks and ventilators. Instead, we have been mired in what are now racial tensions, anti-mask controversies, etc. Politics are still burning the US just as devastatingly as the wildfires in CA. And yet where is the call for unity, the plea for Americans to stand together?
Let's not forget the one big thing pretty much everyone got wrong was the tremendous variance in case severity that resulted in massive amounts of undetected spread, especially given these infections presented at the end of flu season. If the response was a problem particular with Trump then it doesn't explain why much of western Europe, Central & South America, etc. etc., faced a comparable situation around the same time or shortly thereafter.
It spread fast, and local events had a big influence. Quebec is our worst hit province, basically because their spring break was early and people travelled and brought it home. A few weeks later other provinces knew how easily it spread and spring break travel pretty much didn't happen.
Trump may have gone for lockdown March 17, but he basically later downplayed it and from I can see a lot of Americans didn't take the lockdown seriously, just like now lots are not wearing masks (such an easy preventative) and lots aren't respecting social distancing and restricted group size.
That was based on the bubble chart under the "Fear Factor" header.In order to take the 'Murica out of Americans, it's clear the US should have elected Winston Churchill in 2016. I think what some may not get is how deep and structural the various stubborn attitudes of Americans are (I think it's even partially genetic but that's a bit of a tangent!). But with respect to masks, in the US, mask-wearing was more prevalent than in Canada, Germany, UK, and the Nordic countries (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-global-face-mask-adoption/) as of July, for example.@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Sorry to be disagreeable, but saying that the US could not have done better had it listened to what used to be lauded as leading institutions in the CDC, FDA, and domestic medical community... Saying that Australia, South Korea, and Canada set an example we weren't capable of, is just repugnant to me (yes, just my opinion). But I believe the US should have bottled this up in February and March with all of the information we had. Hell, I listened to NPR and knew in March that the Houston Rodeo was a terrible idea and needed to be shut down.I should emphasize I haven't done a forensic post-mortem of which advisor or health expert said what early on, but as a taste, here (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/12/dr_anthony_fauci_at_this_time_there_is_no_need_to_change_your_habits_over_coronavirus.html) is Fauci on February 29th: "Right now at this moment there is no need to change anything that you're doing on a day by day basis." At that point, Youyang Gu's model estimates there were already 110-220K (https://covid19-projections.com/) cumulative infections in the US (this is just 3 days after the first confirmed case of community spread in the US!). Less than 2 weeks later on March 13th, a national emergency is declared, and 4 days later on March 17th Trump asked the state governors to institute lockdowns. At that point, there were already an estimated 2.3M-4.6M cumulative infections in the US.
And the US should have been lending a helping hand to struggling countries this summer by providing needed masks and ventilators. Instead, we have been mired in what are now racial tensions, anti-mask controversies, etc. Politics are still burning the US just as devastatingly as the wildfires in CA. And yet where is the call for unity, the plea for Americans to stand together?
Let's not forget the one big thing pretty much everyone got wrong was the tremendous variance in case severity that resulted in massive amounts of undetected spread, especially given these infections presented at the end of flu season. If the response was a problem particular with Trump then it doesn't explain why much of western Europe, Central & South America, etc. etc., faced a comparable situation around the same time or shortly thereafter.
It spread fast, and local events had a big influence. Quebec is our worst hit province, basically because their spring break was early and people travelled and brought it home. A few weeks later other provinces knew how easily it spread and spring break travel pretty much didn't happen.
Trump may have gone for lockdown March 17, but he basically later downplayed it and from I can see a lot of Americans didn't take the lockdown seriously, just like now lots are not wearing masks (such an easy preventative) and lots aren't respecting social distancing and restricted group size.
Maybe I need more caffeine, but Canada was not explicitly mentioned and was not in the labeled graphs. Where did you see it?
We never had lockdown, we have 14 day self isolation with possible exposure, and quarantine if tested positive. We have had minimal contact guidelines. We have priority shopping hours for seniors and people with major health risks. We have hand sanitizer at the entrance to commercial places and shopping cart handles are sanitized. As our cases have decreased we have loosened group size restrictions a bit.
Our guidelines are to wear a mask when we can't maintain the 2m distance. We are supposed to wear masks inside because how can you maintain distance? So we are all (at least here in Ottawa) wearing masks inside. We aren't wearing masks all the time when we are outside, it depends on conditions. I see cyclists and joggers with and without masks, they assess their exposure and wear a mask if necessary. I see pedestrians who whip out a mask when they get close to other people. In parking lots I see people putting their masks on as they get close to the store. At the BLM march on Parliament Hill this summer, where obviously physical distancing was not possible, all the crowd photos showed everyone was wearing a mask. My spinning group is meeting outside, maskless, but maintaining distance. We also give our phone numbers to the venue for contact tracing, just in case.
So yes, we aren't wearing masks all the time. We are wearing them when we need to. And observing other precautions. Now that school has started, we hope they are enough.
It's early yet, but I would guess more people will get flu shots this year. After all, flu and Covid 19 are not something you want to catch together. In my former rural area we had flu clinics in the local HS gym, but those will be harder to set up this year. I guess more people will get it at their pharmacy. I will.
ETA Our numbers are up a bit. August long weekend was a while ago, labour day weekend is too recent. I'm sure the various health officials will be tracking and figuring out what weak spot allowed the virus access. Probably masks. Or larger get-togethers. Or less distancing in bars/restaurants. For a country that spends a good chunk of the yearvbundled up, we should be able to adapt to masks. Sigh.
CDC update on excess deaths doesn't look great: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Still having about 6-8k excess deaths per week. Interestingly, this number has not trended consistently downward even though confirmed COVID-19 deaths have been decreasing. Current estimates on total excess deaths are between 192,000 - 252,000. At this rate we're looking at about 300k deaths before the end of the year.
Just to put this CDC data in perspective;
2.4-2.8 million US Residents die in a typical year. In 2018 it was about 2.8 million.
If the 2020 data comes back and shows that 3.1 Million+ deaths occur, in my mind this will directly attributed to Covid. [2.8 mill + 200 K current Covid deaths + excess deaths].
I strongly suspect the Republicans will blame suicides, "deaths of despair" from staying home, and the CDC for making up data. If Biden wins, they will blame Biden and the Democrats.
^^Edit: haha, I just questioned the fastidiousness of Canadians in my reply below...That was based on the bubble chart under the "Fear Factor" header.In order to take the 'Murica out of Americans, it's clear the US should have elected Winston Churchill in 2016. I think what some may not get is how deep and structural the various stubborn attitudes of Americans are (I think it's even partially genetic but that's a bit of a tangent!). But with respect to masks, in the US, mask-wearing was more prevalent than in Canada, Germany, UK, and the Nordic countries (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-global-face-mask-adoption/) as of July, for example.@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Sorry to be disagreeable, but saying that the US could not have done better had it listened to what used to be lauded as leading institutions in the CDC, FDA, and domestic medical community... Saying that Australia, South Korea, and Canada set an example we weren't capable of, is just repugnant to me (yes, just my opinion). But I believe the US should have bottled this up in February and March with all of the information we had. Hell, I listened to NPR and knew in March that the Houston Rodeo was a terrible idea and needed to be shut down.I should emphasize I haven't done a forensic post-mortem of which advisor or health expert said what early on, but as a taste, here (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/12/dr_anthony_fauci_at_this_time_there_is_no_need_to_change_your_habits_over_coronavirus.html) is Fauci on February 29th: "Right now at this moment there is no need to change anything that you're doing on a day by day basis." At that point, Youyang Gu's model estimates there were already 110-220K (https://covid19-projections.com/) cumulative infections in the US (this is just 3 days after the first confirmed case of community spread in the US!). Less than 2 weeks later on March 13th, a national emergency is declared, and 4 days later on March 17th Trump asked the state governors to institute lockdowns. At that point, there were already an estimated 2.3M-4.6M cumulative infections in the US.
And the US should have been lending a helping hand to struggling countries this summer by providing needed masks and ventilators. Instead, we have been mired in what are now racial tensions, anti-mask controversies, etc. Politics are still burning the US just as devastatingly as the wildfires in CA. And yet where is the call for unity, the plea for Americans to stand together?
Let's not forget the one big thing pretty much everyone got wrong was the tremendous variance in case severity that resulted in massive amounts of undetected spread, especially given these infections presented at the end of flu season. If the response was a problem particular with Trump then it doesn't explain why much of western Europe, Central & South America, etc. etc., faced a comparable situation around the same time or shortly thereafter.
It spread fast, and local events had a big influence. Quebec is our worst hit province, basically because their spring break was early and people travelled and brought it home. A few weeks later other provinces knew how easily it spread and spring break travel pretty much didn't happen.
Trump may have gone for lockdown March 17, but he basically later downplayed it and from I can see a lot of Americans didn't take the lockdown seriously, just like now lots are not wearing masks (such an easy preventative) and lots aren't respecting social distancing and restricted group size.
Maybe I need more caffeine, but Canada was not explicitly mentioned and was not in the labeled graphs. Where did you see it?
We never had lockdown, we have 14 day self isolation with possible exposure, and quarantine if tested positive. We have had minimal contact guidelines. We have priority shopping hours for seniors and people with major health risks. We have hand sanitizer at the entrance to commercial places and shopping cart handles are sanitized. As our cases have decreased we have loosened group size restrictions a bit.
Our guidelines are to wear a mask when we can't maintain the 2m distance. We are supposed to wear masks inside because how can you maintain distance? So we are all (at least here in Ottawa) wearing masks inside. We aren't wearing masks all the time when we are outside, it depends on conditions. I see cyclists and joggers with and without masks, they assess their exposure and wear a mask if necessary. I see pedestrians who whip out a mask when they get close to other people. In parking lots I see people putting their masks on as they get close to the store. At the BLM march on Parliament Hill this summer, where obviously physical distancing was not possible, all the crowd photos showed everyone was wearing a mask. My spinning group is meeting outside, maskless, but maintaining distance. We also give our phone numbers to the venue for contact tracing, just in case.
So yes, we aren't wearing masks all the time. We are wearing them when we need to. And observing other precautions. Now that school has started, we hope they are enough.
It's early yet, but I would guess more people will get flu shots this year. After all, flu and Covid 19 are not something you want to catch together. In my former rural area we had flu clinics in the local HS gym, but those will be harder to set up this year. I guess more people will get it at their pharmacy. I will.
ETA Our numbers are up a bit. August long weekend was a while ago, labour day weekend is too recent. I'm sure the various health officials will be tracking and figuring out what weak spot allowed the virus access. Probably masks. Or larger get-togethers. Or less distancing in bars/restaurants. For a country that spends a good chunk of the yearvbundled up, we should be able to adapt to masks. Sigh.
Generally the policies and approach you describe sounds very similar to those in my city/state of residence in the middle of the US--except, in my state, we are having about 200-250 cases per million per day, while Canada overall is having 20 cases per million per day. I would say that Canadians are better domesticated and behaved but the ones I interact with at work have some of the most purulent dispositions of all (concealed just under a thin veneer of aw-shucks Canadian politeness). I hedge my bets though and carry a CAD $20 in my wallet (I'm a big fan of the Queen).
Yes...I chose that word carefully!^^Edit: haha, I just questioned the fastidiousness of Canadians in my reply below...That was based on the bubble chart under the "Fear Factor" header.In order to take the 'Murica out of Americans, it's clear the US should have elected Winston Churchill in 2016. I think what some may not get is how deep and structural the various stubborn attitudes of Americans are (I think it's even partially genetic but that's a bit of a tangent!). But with respect to masks, in the US, mask-wearing was more prevalent than in Canada, Germany, UK, and the Nordic countries (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-global-face-mask-adoption/) as of July, for example.@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Sorry to be disagreeable, but saying that the US could not have done better had it listened to what used to be lauded as leading institutions in the CDC, FDA, and domestic medical community... Saying that Australia, South Korea, and Canada set an example we weren't capable of, is just repugnant to me (yes, just my opinion). But I believe the US should have bottled this up in February and March with all of the information we had. Hell, I listened to NPR and knew in March that the Houston Rodeo was a terrible idea and needed to be shut down.I should emphasize I haven't done a forensic post-mortem of which advisor or health expert said what early on, but as a taste, here (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/12/dr_anthony_fauci_at_this_time_there_is_no_need_to_change_your_habits_over_coronavirus.html) is Fauci on February 29th: "Right now at this moment there is no need to change anything that you're doing on a day by day basis." At that point, Youyang Gu's model estimates there were already 110-220K (https://covid19-projections.com/) cumulative infections in the US (this is just 3 days after the first confirmed case of community spread in the US!). Less than 2 weeks later on March 13th, a national emergency is declared, and 4 days later on March 17th Trump asked the state governors to institute lockdowns. At that point, there were already an estimated 2.3M-4.6M cumulative infections in the US.
And the US should have been lending a helping hand to struggling countries this summer by providing needed masks and ventilators. Instead, we have been mired in what are now racial tensions, anti-mask controversies, etc. Politics are still burning the US just as devastatingly as the wildfires in CA. And yet where is the call for unity, the plea for Americans to stand together?
Let's not forget the one big thing pretty much everyone got wrong was the tremendous variance in case severity that resulted in massive amounts of undetected spread, especially given these infections presented at the end of flu season. If the response was a problem particular with Trump then it doesn't explain why much of western Europe, Central & South America, etc. etc., faced a comparable situation around the same time or shortly thereafter.
It spread fast, and local events had a big influence. Quebec is our worst hit province, basically because their spring break was early and people travelled and brought it home. A few weeks later other provinces knew how easily it spread and spring break travel pretty much didn't happen.
Trump may have gone for lockdown March 17, but he basically later downplayed it and from I can see a lot of Americans didn't take the lockdown seriously, just like now lots are not wearing masks (such an easy preventative) and lots aren't respecting social distancing and restricted group size.
Maybe I need more caffeine, but Canada was not explicitly mentioned and was not in the labeled graphs. Where did you see it?
We never had lockdown, we have 14 day self isolation with possible exposure, and quarantine if tested positive. We have had minimal contact guidelines. We have priority shopping hours for seniors and people with major health risks. We have hand sanitizer at the entrance to commercial places and shopping cart handles are sanitized. As our cases have decreased we have loosened group size restrictions a bit.
Our guidelines are to wear a mask when we can't maintain the 2m distance. We are supposed to wear masks inside because how can you maintain distance? So we are all (at least here in Ottawa) wearing masks inside. We aren't wearing masks all the time when we are outside, it depends on conditions. I see cyclists and joggers with and without masks, they assess their exposure and wear a mask if necessary. I see pedestrians who whip out a mask when they get close to other people. In parking lots I see people putting their masks on as they get close to the store. At the BLM march on Parliament Hill this summer, where obviously physical distancing was not possible, all the crowd photos showed everyone was wearing a mask. My spinning group is meeting outside, maskless, but maintaining distance. We also give our phone numbers to the venue for contact tracing, just in case.
So yes, we aren't wearing masks all the time. We are wearing them when we need to. And observing other precautions. Now that school has started, we hope they are enough.
It's early yet, but I would guess more people will get flu shots this year. After all, flu and Covid 19 are not something you want to catch together. In my former rural area we had flu clinics in the local HS gym, but those will be harder to set up this year. I guess more people will get it at their pharmacy. I will.
ETA Our numbers are up a bit. August long weekend was a while ago, labour day weekend is too recent. I'm sure the various health officials will be tracking and figuring out what weak spot allowed the virus access. Probably masks. Or larger get-togethers. Or less distancing in bars/restaurants. For a country that spends a good chunk of the yearvbundled up, we should be able to adapt to masks. Sigh.
Generally the policies and approach you describe sounds very similar to those in my city/state of residence in the middle of the US--except, in my state, we are having about 200-250 cases per million per day, while Canada overall is having 20 cases per million per day. I would say that Canadians are better domesticated and behaved but the ones I interact with at work have some of the most purulent dispositions of all (concealed just under a thin veneer of aw-shucks Canadian politeness). I hedge my bets though and carry a CAD $20 in my wallet (I'm a big fan of the Queen).
Purulent means full of, discharging pus from an infection. They were that bad?
Yes...I chose that word carefully!^^Edit: haha, I just questioned the fastidiousness of Canadians in my reply below...That was based on the bubble chart under the "Fear Factor" header.In order to take the 'Murica out of Americans, it's clear the US should have elected Winston Churchill in 2016. I think what some may not get is how deep and structural the various stubborn attitudes of Americans are (I think it's even partially genetic but that's a bit of a tangent!). But with respect to masks, in the US, mask-wearing was more prevalent than in Canada, Germany, UK, and the Nordic countries (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-global-face-mask-adoption/) as of July, for example.@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Sorry to be disagreeable, but saying that the US could not have done better had it listened to what used to be lauded as leading institutions in the CDC, FDA, and domestic medical community... Saying that Australia, South Korea, and Canada set an example we weren't capable of, is just repugnant to me (yes, just my opinion). But I believe the US should have bottled this up in February and March with all of the information we had. Hell, I listened to NPR and knew in March that the Houston Rodeo was a terrible idea and needed to be shut down.I should emphasize I haven't done a forensic post-mortem of which advisor or health expert said what early on, but as a taste, here (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/12/dr_anthony_fauci_at_this_time_there_is_no_need_to_change_your_habits_over_coronavirus.html) is Fauci on February 29th: "Right now at this moment there is no need to change anything that you're doing on a day by day basis." At that point, Youyang Gu's model estimates there were already 110-220K (https://covid19-projections.com/) cumulative infections in the US (this is just 3 days after the first confirmed case of community spread in the US!). Less than 2 weeks later on March 13th, a national emergency is declared, and 4 days later on March 17th Trump asked the state governors to institute lockdowns. At that point, there were already an estimated 2.3M-4.6M cumulative infections in the US.
And the US should have been lending a helping hand to struggling countries this summer by providing needed masks and ventilators. Instead, we have been mired in what are now racial tensions, anti-mask controversies, etc. Politics are still burning the US just as devastatingly as the wildfires in CA. And yet where is the call for unity, the plea for Americans to stand together?
Let's not forget the one big thing pretty much everyone got wrong was the tremendous variance in case severity that resulted in massive amounts of undetected spread, especially given these infections presented at the end of flu season. If the response was a problem particular with Trump then it doesn't explain why much of western Europe, Central & South America, etc. etc., faced a comparable situation around the same time or shortly thereafter.
It spread fast, and local events had a big influence. Quebec is our worst hit province, basically because their spring break was early and people travelled and brought it home. A few weeks later other provinces knew how easily it spread and spring break travel pretty much didn't happen.
Trump may have gone for lockdown March 17, but he basically later downplayed it and from I can see a lot of Americans didn't take the lockdown seriously, just like now lots are not wearing masks (such an easy preventative) and lots aren't respecting social distancing and restricted group size.
Maybe I need more caffeine, but Canada was not explicitly mentioned and was not in the labeled graphs. Where did you see it?
We never had lockdown, we have 14 day self isolation with possible exposure, and quarantine if tested positive. We have had minimal contact guidelines. We have priority shopping hours for seniors and people with major health risks. We have hand sanitizer at the entrance to commercial places and shopping cart handles are sanitized. As our cases have decreased we have loosened group size restrictions a bit.
Our guidelines are to wear a mask when we can't maintain the 2m distance. We are supposed to wear masks inside because how can you maintain distance? So we are all (at least here in Ottawa) wearing masks inside. We aren't wearing masks all the time when we are outside, it depends on conditions. I see cyclists and joggers with and without masks, they assess their exposure and wear a mask if necessary. I see pedestrians who whip out a mask when they get close to other people. In parking lots I see people putting their masks on as they get close to the store. At the BLM march on Parliament Hill this summer, where obviously physical distancing was not possible, all the crowd photos showed everyone was wearing a mask. My spinning group is meeting outside, maskless, but maintaining distance. We also give our phone numbers to the venue for contact tracing, just in case.
So yes, we aren't wearing masks all the time. We are wearing them when we need to. And observing other precautions. Now that school has started, we hope they are enough.
It's early yet, but I would guess more people will get flu shots this year. After all, flu and Covid 19 are not something you want to catch together. In my former rural area we had flu clinics in the local HS gym, but those will be harder to set up this year. I guess more people will get it at their pharmacy. I will.
ETA Our numbers are up a bit. August long weekend was a while ago, labour day weekend is too recent. I'm sure the various health officials will be tracking and figuring out what weak spot allowed the virus access. Probably masks. Or larger get-togethers. Or less distancing in bars/restaurants. For a country that spends a good chunk of the yearvbundled up, we should be able to adapt to masks. Sigh.
Generally the policies and approach you describe sounds very similar to those in my city/state of residence in the middle of the US--except, in my state, we are having about 200-250 cases per million per day, while Canada overall is having 20 cases per million per day. I would say that Canadians are better domesticated and behaved but the ones I interact with at work have some of the most purulent dispositions of all (concealed just under a thin veneer of aw-shucks Canadian politeness). I hedge my bets though and carry a CAD $20 in my wallet (I'm a big fan of the Queen).
Purulent means full of, discharging pus from an infection. They were that bad?
My point is people are drowning out the actual problems and issues by taking such a polarized & non-nuanced stance to everything the Trump administration does. To keep it somewhat on topic, do we want to talk about Hydroxychloroquine for example? I first heard about it on Medcram (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M) a week or two before Trump ever uttered its name. "Interesting," I thought. As soon as Trump mentions it as a possible treatment, out comes the vitriol and mockery. The point is not whether or not HCQ works; the point is that early in the pandemic with few effective anti-virals in existence, that it was something with some theoretical and empirical plausibility in terms of efficacy and was worth trying (interestingly, HCQ remains the standard of care in at least a handful of countries to this day, even though the clinical trials have been wildly inconclusive).Note that I'm not waging a full-throated defense of Trump; I'm just sick of TDS dictating every single opinion on the matter. Keep it up and we will have Trump 2020, Ivanka 2024 & 2028, etc.Boy it gets tiring hearing that we must all pussy foot around and not point out the idiocy that is there for all but the wilfully blind to see or else our harse words will end up being the cause of Trump being re-elected.
Frankly if Trump is re-elected it is because a significant portion of the citizenry of the USA are absolute freakingly stupid idiots.
Just own it already.
What's a better criticism of the Trump administration? Well why wasn't anyone talking about vitamin D, for instance?
It's fair to say Trump was strangely and loudly bullish on HCQ and it was totally inappropriate for him to do so (even if bolstering an unproven approach is the most Trumpian thing he could do--and Trump is predictably Trumpian). The troubling aspect of the initial reaction wasn't those with a measured response of "Trump is bolstering a highly speculative, unproven drug backed by a bit of theory and some shaky--but promising--early observational studies" but rather those who seem to think "if the President says it, then it must be false!".
9/3/20 -186,018 [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/3/20 -186,018 [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
On the one hand, my 4 week lag model I posted weeks ago predicted through the first 22 predicted days 17,853 deaths versus an actual of 17,832 deaths (per covidtracking.com) so it is fitting pretty well. On the other hand, today there were 150 deaths over prediction which is a rather big anomaly. Part of the problem seems to be variation in the timeliness in different states in officially reporting (FL is behind by a median of two weeks). As different states ramp up and down, the effective lag in data is shifting.9/3/20 -186,018 [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
I really hope you are right, but I really think you are wrong... at best, the US has stabilized at 5k before heading in to the fall.
On the one hand, my 4 week lag model I posted weeks ago predicted through the first 22 predicted days 17,853 deaths versus an actual of 17,832 deaths (per covidtracking.com) so it is fitting pretty well. On the other hand, today there were 150 deaths over prediction which is a rather big anomaly. Part of the problem seems to be variation in the timeliness in different states in officially reporting (FL is behind by a median of two weeks). As different states ramp up and down, the effective lag in data is shifting.9/3/20 -186,018 [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
I really hope you are right, but I really think you are wrong... at best, the US has stabilized at 5k before heading in to the fall.
Overall, the case and hospitalization data should be solid and all of that continues to predict a downward trend for the next couple of weeks. After that, we will learn if the pause in case decline we are now seeing is school-related (which would predict younger people infected, and hence, a low IFR and continued declines in daily deaths) or some other broader resurgence (which would predict a leveling off in the decline of daily deaths). I'm too lazy to look for data showing the age distribution of new cases which would settle this question quicker
Today had a high increase in cases (47K) but it took nearly a million tests to find those cases. Youyang Gu mentioned that his model doesn't(!) use case data because it's not predictive. I can make sense of that early on when low testing capacity made cases a bad signal but lately the fit to lagged cases is quite good.
Will provide citations when I have time, but the latest data in Europe shows similar to the US: mostly younger people getting infected. I don't think we'll have a good number on the children's rates because we usually don't swab them unless it is really needed due to the traumatic experience and high false negative rate.
Do you think it's more because younger people are out and about more (work/social/both) or the virus has shifted to be worse for young people?
Any info as to if it's more/less/same severity?
On the one hand, my 4 week lag model I posted weeks ago predicted through the first 22 predicted days 17,853 deaths versus an actual of 17,832 deaths (per covidtracking.com) so it is fitting pretty well. On the other hand, today there were 150 deaths over prediction which is a rather big anomaly. Part of the problem seems to be variation in the timeliness in different states in officially reporting (FL is behind by a median of two weeks). As different states ramp up and down, the effective lag in data is shifting.9/3/20 -186,018 [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
I really hope you are right, but I really think you are wrong... at best, the US has stabilized at 5k before heading in to the fall.
Overall, the case and hospitalization data should be solid and all of that continues to predict a downward trend for the next couple of weeks. After that, we will learn if the pause in case decline we are now seeing is school-related (which would predict younger people infected, and hence, a low IFR and continued declines in daily deaths) or some other broader resurgence (which would predict a leveling off in the decline of daily deaths). I'm too lazy to look for data showing the age distribution of new cases which would settle this question quicker
Today had a high increase in cases (47K) but it took nearly a million tests to find those cases. Youyang Gu mentioned that his model doesn't(!) use case data because it's not predictive. I can make sense of that early on when low testing capacity made cases a bad signal but lately the fit to lagged cases is quite good.
Texas is the only largely populated state still using the free, entry-level reporting system provided by the federal government, commonly called NEDSS. At the beginning of the pandemic, it had no way of electronically tracking case investigations or conducting contact tracing, where close contacts of those infected are tracked down and advised to self-isolate.
In April, the health agency rushed to build a separate system for those critical operations, called Texas Health Trace, which they have so far paid $1.1 million to develop. Months later, some local health departments are still working to sync their databases with it.
@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Also, not to take this too far off-topic, but how do you square Trump saying America has turned the corner (https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/sep/11/fauci-disagrees-trump-us-turned-corner-covid-19/) with reality? You seem to be more objective than I am, so what is the un-biased opinion toward where America is headed in the coming months?My deepest underlying belief is that it is too soon to tell and we are not understanding all of the relevant information to reliably predict more than a couple of months out, if that. Some things I got wrong earlier in the year:
Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago. The difference is that school started. We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources. We shall see . . . .
Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago. The difference is that school started. We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources. We shall see . . . .
Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party. I suspect that may have played into the equation.
... and in that vein, DeSantis is opening up Florida and removing all restrictions on business capacity. Florida is going to be a shitshow in a few weeks. It is frustrating to watch wishful thinking and political calculation win out over scientific understanding of epidemiology.Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago. The difference is that school started. We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources. We shall see . . . .
Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party. I suspect that may have played into the equation.
You are right, but don't cases start going up about 2 weeks later?. It seems forever ago. And now we are tightening up again. I think large private gatherings should be massively discouraged, they can't take the same precautions as are done at restaurants and bars.
... and in that vein, DeSantis is opening up Florida and removing all restrictions on business capacity. Florida is going to be a shitshow in a few weeks. It is frustrating to watch wishful thinking and political calculation win out over scientific understanding of epidemiology.Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago. The difference is that school started. We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources. We shall see . . . .
Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party. I suspect that may have played into the equation.
You are right, but don't cases start going up about 2 weeks later?. It seems forever ago. And now we are tightening up again. I think large private gatherings should be massively discouraged, they can't take the same precautions as are done at restaurants and bars.
... and in that vein, DeSantis is opening up Florida and removing all restrictions on business capacity. Florida is going to be a shitshow in a few weeks. It is frustrating to watch wishful thinking and political calculation win out over scientific understanding of epidemiology.Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago. The difference is that school started. We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources. We shall see . . . .
Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party. I suspect that may have played into the equation.
You are right, but don't cases start going up about 2 weeks later?. It seems forever ago. And now we are tightening up again. I think large private gatherings should be massively discouraged, they can't take the same precautions as are done at restaurants and bars.
Here's a question. Assuming the quest for full opening is byproduct of political expediency... will Floridian politicians close-up again after the election results are in? OR, will they double down regardless of the effect on their population's health?
... and in that vein, DeSantis is opening up Florida and removing all restrictions on business capacity. Florida is going to be a shitshow in a few weeks. It is frustrating to watch wishful thinking and political calculation win out over scientific understanding of epidemiology.Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago. The difference is that school started. We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources. We shall see . . . .
Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party. I suspect that may have played into the equation.
You are right, but don't cases start going up about 2 weeks later?. It seems forever ago. And now we are tightening up again. I think large private gatherings should be massively discouraged, they can't take the same precautions as are done at restaurants and bars.
Here's a question. Assuming the quest for full opening is byproduct of political expediency... will Floridian politicians close-up again after the election results are in? OR, will they double down regardless of the effect on their population's health?
I suspect it depends on whether or not they expect to personally profit from continuing to endanger the people under their control.
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20
1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20
1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Seems like the third wave starting to me, as evidenced in the "hospitalizations" chart here. Interestingly with the other waves, the peaks in hospitalizations and deaths both occurred within a week of the peak in cases, so we may not have to wait 2-6 weeks like you expect:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkU5NjfU0AAqib-?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Wave 1 in April had the peak for cases, hospitalizations and deaths all basically at the same time on 4-20.
By the time Wave 2 came around in July we had greater testing capacity which shows a higher (more accurate) number of cases, but hospitalizations are nearly identical to Wave 1, and deaths are thankfully lower. Still, both cases and hospitalizations peaked right around 7-25 and deaths peaked about a week later on 8-4-ish.
What is this about the cdc revising their numbers and adding 75k more deaths?? Do you have any more information about how these were calculated?
I've vacillated in my opinion between increased numbers due to co-infection of COVID and influenza, and decreased numbers due to better hygiene reducing influenza cases. I've kind of come to the conclusion that we will see a significant splitting in trajectories based on a given location's overall compliance with masks, flu vaccines, etc. Time will tell!
I've vacillated in my opinion between increased numbers due to co-infection of COVID and influenza, and decreased numbers due to better hygiene reducing influenza cases. I've kind of come to the conclusion that we will see a significant splitting in trajectories based on a given location's overall compliance with masks, flu vaccines, etc. Time will tell!
I re-read this older post, Abe, and I'd like to point out that the same swabs and reagents used to diagnose Covid19 are used to diagnose Influenza. There is a worldwide shortage of this testing equipment right now. Thus, during the current pandemic, even if I wanted to diagnose Influenza as an outpatient, the resources don't actually exist to get this done. The end result is we will have much lower Influenza diagnoses this year (regardless of whether the rate of Influenza is, in reality, going down).
In Australia, we’re just finishing the flu season. In February, we looked like we were in for a bad season, with a higher than usual number of cases reported. The measures brought in at that point for covid19 stopped the flu in its tracks. Our government encouraged everyone to get the flu vaccine earlier than normal, so that may have had an impact. Normally we see a bit over 700 flu deaths in a season. This year it’s been 39. The rate has been so low that they don’t even know if we had the right vaccine this year. You may be lucky.
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm
This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205
Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries. For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000). Similarly, Japan - 4,315. Australia - 11,619...
This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205
Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries. For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000). Similarly, Japan - 4,315. Australia - 11,619...
Interesting. It seems like a false comparison to me though. US and SK are very different. US and AUS are perhaps more 'compatible'.
This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205
Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries. For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000). Similarly, Japan - 4,315. Australia - 11,619...
Interesting. It seems like a false comparison to me though. US and SK are very different. US and AUS are perhaps more 'compatible'.
The intent was not to compare similar social norms, it was just a thought exercise on how differently this could have played out under different circumstances in the US. I would encourage you to see all of Sanjay Gupta's interview, the second part highlights what to expect going forward in the US - https://youtu.be/TWloBXxspWA
This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205
Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries. For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000). Similarly, Japan - 4,315. Australia - 11,619...
Interesting. It seems like a false comparison to me though. US and SK are very different. US and AUS are perhaps more 'compatible'.
The intent was not to compare similar social norms, it was just a thought exercise on how differently this could have played out under different circumstances in the US. I would encourage you to see all of Sanjay Gupta's interview, the second part highlights what to expect going forward in the US - https://youtu.be/TWloBXxspWA
Thanks @EscapeVelocity2020
I will watch it. Thanks for posting the links!
Check out the "Percent Positive" Tab on this Johns Hopkins Trend TrackerYikes some of those percentages are high. Given the differences in testing by state, I wonder what systematic biases are under them. For example, Mississippi reported a 100% positive rate. That suggests that test are only given where it is confirming something clinically obvious and that the infection rate is wildly underrepresented by the testing data. Regardless of testing, 989 new cases a week in a state with the population of South Dakota (~885k) is scary.
CDC recommends %Positive to be 5.0% or less
The USA currently has 36 states >5.0% and 15 states >10.0%
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview
This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205
Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries. For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000). Similarly, Japan - 4,315. Australia - 11,619...
Check out the "Percent Positive" Tab on this Johns Hopkins Trend TrackerYikes some of those percentages are high. Given the differences in testing by state, I wonder what systematic biases are under them. For example, Mississippi reported a 100% positive rate. That suggests that test are only given where it is confirming something clinically obvious and that the infection rate is wildly underrepresented by the testing data. Regardless of testing, 989 new cases a week in a state with the population of South Dakota (~885k) is scary.
CDC recommends %Positive to be 5.0% or less
The USA currently has 36 states >5.0% and 15 states >10.0%
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview
Check out the "Percent Positive" Tab on this Johns Hopkins Trend Tracker
CDC recommends %Positive to be 5.0% or less
The USA currently has 36 states >5.0% and 15 states >10.0%
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview
We've also gotten much better at treating it - not perfect, of course, but the case fatality rate continues to decline pretty steadily, which is a good thing. It's also why we didn't see death spikes proportionally to the rise in cases over the summer and why we may not see a spike in deaths similar to the rise in cases currently.
On vacation, update will have to wait. General summary is that it all went to hell.Was afraid of that. Enjoy your vacation, nevertheless.
On vacation, update will have to wait. General summary is that it all went to hell.
Canada is also well into its second wave. Sigh.
Canada is also well into its second wave. Sigh.
It's interesting that (other than Quebec, which has never had covid under control from the start) the worst hit provinces for the second wave are all governed by Conservatives. Not sure if this is a coincidence or indicative of something in the style of governance.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
A lot of healthcare systems seem to be right on the edge right now. In North Dakota they are sending in COVID positive doctors and nurses to care for COVID patients because they're out of people. (https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6753876-With-North-Dakota-hospitals-at-100-capacity-Burgum-announces-COVID-positive-nurses-can-stay-at-work) Where I live the hospitals just announced they are cancelling any procedures which require an overnight stay, because they're out of beds and out of people to monitor the beds.
Another update per state. Not looking great.
Another update per state. Not looking great.
Thanks for posting that, Abe. I find it fascinating that the end results seem to be largely the same in different states/areas despite vastly different responses (ie, some places have mandated masks/closed businesses, others have done almost nothing - but they're all spiking). It's a bit dispiriting honestly. As much as I support everyone wearing masks and not getting together for parties, it seems it doesn't actually help much.
I think what you're missing is that those state by state charts are all on different scales to make the "spikes" fill the square. The states like Washington and New York which have been trying hard to manage it have slight upticks, while denialist states like South Dakota are wildly out of control. (I'm not saying this is your fault, the charts are kind of made to look like they're all the same.) You can get a better idea of the state by state comparison by looking at the Washington Post version of these charts which all use the same scale, and are sorted by severity. This story is not paywalled: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/
I would also caution in ascribing reasons for the current upticks in specific states to political or other behaviors. For any given comparison that fits one's theory, there is another that does not. A good example are the two largest by population, California and Texas. Both have similar trajectories with recent case numbers but are not similar in management by any means.
I would also caution in ascribing reasons for the current upticks in specific states to political or other behaviors. For any given comparison that fits one's theory, there is another that does not. A good example are the two largest by population, California and Texas. Both have similar trajectories with recent case numbers but are not similar in management by any means.
I find case numbers are not very helpful in general - it depends too much on how much testing is being done. And it's impossible to compare to, say, how bad it was in the spring when there were no tests to be had. Texas appears to have nearly four times the current death rate as California, and WaPo says their hospitalization rate is more than 2x as bad. Texas has done way less testing and had many more deaths per 100k overall.
You're right that it's not always cut and dried, because super spreader events can have a big impact (I'm convinced that Sturgis is part of the reason there's been such a huge surge in the Dakotas and surrounding states, for example). But if you look at the hospitalization and current death rates, the bottom of the charts is dominated by states that have mask mandates and other restrictions.
I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is Going to ruin the USA. All while gasping for breath on 100% Vapotherm. They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that “stuff” because they don’t have COViD because it’s not real. Yes. This really happens. And I can’t stop thinking about it. These people really think this isn’t going to happen to them. And then they stop yelling at you when they get intubated. It’s like a fucking horror movie that never ends. There’s no credits that roll. You just go back and do it all over again.
This is the only Coronavirus thread I follow. This may fit better in another thread. If anyone thinks so, feel free to let me know (or just cross-post yourself, if you like).That tweet spread fast.
I saw this short twitter thread (https://twitter.com/JodiDoering/status/1327771329555292162?s=20) posted by a nurse earlier today and it makes me inexpressibly sad and bewildered.QuoteI have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is Going to ruin the USA. All while gasping for breath on 100% Vapotherm. They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that “stuff” because they don’t have COViD because it’s not real. Yes. This really happens. And I can’t stop thinking about it. These people really think this isn’t going to happen to them. And then they stop yelling at you when they get intubated. It’s like a fucking horror movie that never ends. There’s no credits that roll. You just go back and do it all over again.
Canada is also well into its second wave. Sigh.
It's interesting that (other than Quebec, which has never had covid under control from the start) the worst hit provinces for the second wave are all governed by Conservatives. Not sure if this is a coincidence or indicative of something in the style of governance.
We could start a whole new thread on this. Deep sigh this time.
Canada is also well into its second wave. Sigh.
It's interesting that (other than Quebec, which has never had covid under control from the start) the worst hit provinces for the second wave are all governed by Conservatives. Not sure if this is a coincidence or indicative of something in the style of governance.
We could start a whole new thread on this. Deep sigh this time.
It says as much, or more, about the electorate than it does the style of governance.
Damn Glenstache, very sorry for your father's loss. As a stats guy, it is easy to find the data and comparisons interesting, while doing my best to forgot the unbelievable tragedy and truly staggering number of deaths.
Estimated excess mortality per the CDC is now over 300k, approaching 350k. Some rural academic hospitals are making covid palliative care units to avoid using up limited ventilators, something NYC didn’t have to do due to the large number of hospitals in the area. Many local hospitals are running out of room and transferring only stable intubated patients to the main hospitals since they may actually survive. The Houston area is at 97% ICU capacity for all patients, 20% covid. Normally run at 80% capacity pre-COVID. New hospitalizations are up 50% (150/day from 100/day). If you go to a rural area for the holidays do not plan on having hospital access for non-Covid emergencies. The death curve will start climbing in earnest now.
Estimated excess mortality per the CDC is now over 300k, approaching 350k. Some rural academic hospitals are making covid palliative care units to avoid using up limited ventilators, something NYC didn’t have to do due to the large number of hospitals in the area. Many local hospitals are running out of room and transferring only stable intubated patients to the main hospitals since they may actually survive. The Houston area is at 97% ICU capacity for all patients, 20% covid. Normally run at 80% capacity pre-COVID. New hospitalizations are up 50% (150/day from 100/day). If you go to a rural area for the holidays do not plan on having hospital access for non-Covid emergencies. The death curve will start climbing in earnest now.
Estimated excess mortality per the CDC is now over 300k, approaching 350k. Some rural academic hospitals are making covid palliative care units to avoid using up limited ventilators, something NYC didn’t have to do due to the large number of hospitals in the area. Many local hospitals are running out of room and transferring only stable intubated patients to the main hospitals since they may actually survive. The Houston area is at 97% ICU capacity for all patients, 20% covid. Normally run at 80% capacity pre-COVID. New hospitalizations are up 50% (150/day from 100/day). If you go to a rural area for the holidays do not plan on having hospital access for non-Covid emergencies. The death curve will start climbing in earnest now.
Does the estimated excess mortality include the 250,000 Covid deaths or are they in addition to that number? Just trying to understand how undercounted the number of deaths attributed to the epidemic is.
I wonder if the covid bump after Thanksgiving is a blessing in disguise. It may encourage people to take it more seriously for Christmas/New Years.
Sorry for replying to myself, but I had another thought:
The CDC now estimates the total cases is about 8x higher (depending on the region) than confirmed cases. WIth 12m known cases so far, total cases may be ~100m. There are two ways to look at this:
1. Assuming herd immunity is in the 30-70% range, we are approaching it.
2. Assuming we would see an asymptote once approaching herd immunity, we are still on the upslope and not approaching herd immunity yet.
Now that the pandemic is endemic in many states that are not aggressively trying to slow the spread (i.e. ND, SD, etc), we should have a good estimate of true herd immunity with serologic testing once the dust settles. This is important for vaccine distribution plans, especially if this coronavirus remains a seasonal endemic strain like the others.
Lack of testing.
People who don’t have symptoms won’t go to get tested. There are quite a lot of people who fall into this category.
People who have symptoms but are turned away at testing stations. The more people who have it per tester, the fewer the tester can be expected to test, so testing stations tighten the criteria.
People who won’t get tested despite having symptoms. Some people are only paid when they’re actually working, so going off sick, and getting tested will cost them money and possibly their job.
People who can’t get to a testing station to be tested.
I doubt very much there would be 8x the number of cases as those reported. That would suggest that something like 70-90% of cases are asymptomatic or mild enough that no medical treatment was sought. I find that a difficult figure to believe.Look at the NFL (our professional football league). Seemingly half the players in the league have been on the Covid list now and I've yet to hear of a single one reporting symptoms.
Sorry for replying to myself, but I had another thought:
The CDC now estimates the total cases is about 8x higher (depending on the region) than confirmed cases. WIth 12m known cases so far, total cases may be ~100m. There are two ways to look at this:
1. Assuming herd immunity is in the 30-70% range, we are approaching it.
2. Assuming we would see an asymptote once approaching herd immunity, we are still on the upslope and not approaching herd immunity yet.
Now that the pandemic is endemic in many states that are not aggressively trying to slow the spread (i.e. ND, SD, etc), we should have a good estimate of true herd immunity with serologic testing once the dust settles. This is important for vaccine distribution plans, especially if this coronavirus remains a seasonal endemic strain like the others.
I wonder if some states are already closer to the 70% then others?
Just as an example I was perusing Worldometers at lunch today as I have done way to many Mondays this year and comparing Florida to California-
Right now Florida has about 50% more cases per million and double the deaths per million then California so it would seem they are doing significantly worse.
Florida's daily cases peaked at 15,394 in Mid July and while they are rising steadily now they are at about an 8,000 - 7 day average or almost half of their worst so far.
Meanwhile California's Summer peak was 12,137 also in Mid July but they are now at a 7 day rolling average of about 14,500 So about a 20% increase vs a 48% decrease.
Anyway, probably reading way to much into it and it could be just total coincidence or chance. But I'll be curious to see how they each fair this winter.
Just for reference as of today:
Florida - Cases - 999,319 (46,528 per million) Deaths - 18,597 (866 per million)
California - Cases - 1,225,829 (31,024 per million) Deaths - 19,177 (485 per million)
Sorry for replying to myself, but I had another thought:
The CDC now estimates the total cases is about 8x higher (depending on the region) than confirmed cases. WIth 12m known cases so far, total cases may be ~100m. There are two ways to look at this:
1. Assuming herd immunity is in the 30-70% range, we are approaching it.
2. Assuming we would see an asymptote once approaching herd immunity, we are still on the upslope and not approaching herd immunity yet.
Now that the pandemic is endemic in many states that are not aggressively trying to slow the spread (i.e. ND, SD, etc), we should have a good estimate of true herd immunity with serologic testing once the dust settles. This is important for vaccine distribution plans, especially if this coronavirus remains a seasonal endemic strain like the others.
I wonder if some states are already closer to the 70% then others?
Just as an example I was perusing Worldometers at lunch today as I have done way to many Mondays this year and comparing Florida to California-
Right now Florida has about 50% more cases per million and double the deaths per million then California so it would seem they are doing significantly worse.
Florida's daily cases peaked at 15,394 in Mid July and while they are rising steadily now they are at about an 8,000 - 7 day average or almost half of their worst so far.
Meanwhile California's Summer peak was 12,137 also in Mid July but they are now at a 7 day rolling average of about 14,500 So about a 20% increase vs a 48% decrease.
Anyway, probably reading way to much into it and it could be just total coincidence or chance. But I'll be curious to see how they each fair this winter.
Just for reference as of today:
Florida - Cases - 999,319 (46,528 per million) Deaths - 18,597 (866 per million)
California - Cases - 1,225,829 (31,024 per million) Deaths - 19,177 (485 per million)
Compare uninsured rates for both states. There lies your different in mortality.
If I remember correctly, Abe, NYC did an antibody random sampling after the March/April wave and they said only 22% or so of New Yorkers showed antibodies. That’s a far cry from 70%, and took about 25,000 deaths to “cull the herd”.
The average age of the population in california is a little over 36 years old compared to Florida at a bit over 41. That could have a statistically significant impact on mortality.
The data scientist fired for refusing to ‘manipulate’ Florida’s Covid figures filmed her home being raided by state police who seized her computer equipment.
Rebekah Jones posted the shocking footage on Twitter and claimed that Florida governor Ron DeSantis had “sent the gestapo” for her.
So this is pretty disturbing:
‘DeSantis sent the Gestapo’: Fired Florida Covid data scientist films home being raided by police (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/florida-covid-data-scientist-raid-desantis-b1767723.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1607380957)QuoteThe data scientist fired for refusing to ‘manipulate’ Florida’s Covid figures filmed her home being raided by state police who seized her computer equipment.
Rebekah Jones posted the shocking footage on Twitter and claimed that Florida governor Ron DeSantis had “sent the gestapo” for her.
Where are all the 'freedumb' anti-mask protestors? I thought they were fans of civil rights . . .Apparently off complaining about government overreach for making them wear a mask.
Where are all the 'freedumb' anti-mask protestors? I thought they were fans of civil rights . . .Apparently off complaining about government overreach for making them wear a mask.
Where are all the 'freedumb' anti-mask protestors? I thought they were fans of civil rights . . .Apparently off complaining about government overreach for making them wear a mask.
I hope she finds a good lawyer and sues the heck out of the State of Florida.
Jones has said she lost her job after she refused requests to manipulate data to suggest Florida was ready to ease coronavirus restrictions. A spokesperson for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at the time that she "exhibited a repeated course of insubordination during her time with the department."
About 3.5 weeks ago, I thought it was "likely" that the USA would get to 300K deaths by New Years.
We beat that "deadline" by 2.5 weeks today. Hard to pin down exponential trends sometimes.
300267 per the John Hopkins website.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
https://covidtracking.com/data/national
Currently Hospitalized peaked at 114459 on Dec 17th. Hopefully that means this trend will continue to head downward now, and NOT that we've run out of hospital beds in many places in the USA.
https://covidtracking.com/data/national
Currently Hospitalized peaked at 114459 on Dec 17th. Hopefully that means this trend will continue to head downward now, and NOT that we've run out of hospital beds in many places in the USA.
It's up to 119k now.
Here's a graph of % of state population that's had a confirmed COVID-19 infection
https://covidtracking.com/data/national
Currently Hospitalized peaked at 114459 on Dec 17th. Hopefully that means this trend will continue to head downward now, and NOT that we've run out of hospital beds in many places in the USA.
It's up to 119k now.
Here's a graph of % of state population that's had a confirmed COVID-19 infection
Yes, this is awful. So currently 119K of 925K total beds in the US are Covid admissions. About 12.8% percent. How much additional capacity can there be? You can put a cot anywhere, but where are you going to get the staff?
6. USA [1015] +65 -2nd wave hitting a plateau? Lets home the vaccines start decreasing the death rate in about 2-3 weeks as the most at risk folks get the vaccine 1st.
Told ya!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported
"More than 186,000 Russians have died due to coronavirus, three times more than previously reported"
This means Russia has 3rd highest number of Covid19 deaths in the world.
Let this serve as notice to Florida, Texas, Lousiana where I strongly suspect numbers are being fudged like crazy. Especially Florida.
The truth comes out, eventually.
JGS
Told ya!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported
"More than 186,000 Russians have died due to coronavirus, three times more than previously reported"
This means Russia has 3rd highest number of Covid19 deaths in the world.
Let this serve as notice to Florida, Texas, Lousiana where I strongly suspect numbers are being fudged like crazy. Especially Florida.
The truth comes out, eventually.
JGS
Louisiana resident here. I firmly believe that the numbers are fudged here. Lots of irregularities parish to parish and anomalies statewide depending on the day of the week, etc.
Told ya!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported
"More than 186,000 Russians have died due to coronavirus, three times more than previously reported"
This means Russia has 3rd highest number of Covid19 deaths in the world.
Let this serve as notice to Florida, Texas, Lousiana where I strongly suspect numbers are being fudged like crazy. Especially Florida.
The truth comes out, eventually.
JGS
Louisiana resident here. I firmly believe that the numbers are fudged here. Lots of irregularities parish to parish and anomalies statewide depending on the day of the week, etc.
I would also bet Houston's numbers are undercounted. What is strange is how random the fatalities have been, recently heard about a younger (low-40's) gal and active member of the local church who passed away 2 weeks after being perfectly healthy.
Then there's also this depressing news about the more infectious UK strain being discovered in rural CO - https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/health/colorado-uk-coronavirus-variant/index.html
People in their 40s can die of covid. I don’t understand that suggests fudging of the data?
People in their 40s can die of covid. I don’t understand that suggests fudging of the data?
People in their 40s can die of covid. I don’t understand that suggests fudging of the data?
Sorry - unrelated.
Prior post mentioned younger person.
I am concerned about the variety of impact. It bothers me that people have a cavalier attitude about it. A co-worker and their family has it right now. Said person still thinks no big deal. SMH!
No offense taken. Look forward to stopping my OCD tracking once deaths get down to less than 200/day again. 6 more months?I'm really looking forward to that, and I'm happy that you're keeping us informed in the interim.
I've already gained more this week, perhaps this morning, than we'll spend this year. Trying to wrap my head around the numbers is numbing.
I think I'll take the dog for a walk to clear my mind.
Wow. The one that blows me away is the realization I'm up almost 10 years of spending since the March low. A freakin decade of expenses for the entire family. And of course that was after an initial, almost immediate, drop of 6 years worth before that bounce back. I had already reduced risk last year as I was hitting FI, but its still quite a bit of whiplash...
Quote6. USA [1015] +65 -2nd wave hitting a plateau? Lets home the vaccines start decreasing the death rate in about 2-3 weeks as the most at risk folks get the vaccine 1st.
Only AFTER hitting a new high with a surge on top of a surge. We expect to see a post Christmas surge, with so many people ignoring the warnings and traveling. Hospitalizations and deaths lag infections. The vaccine takes weeks between two doses and additional time for the immune system to build 95% immunity, and the roll out is going slower than planned, so as the experts are saying, it's not going to save us from this surge.
Why exclude Slovenia (1,417 deaths per mill), Bosnia & Herzegovina (1,310), North Mecedonia (1,244)?Although he has specified the cutoff at 1 million each week, it should read as 4 million
These countries all have more than 1 million population, which appears to be the cut-off you've specified?
Why exclude Slovenia (1,417 deaths per mill), Bosnia & Herzegovina (1,310), North Mecedonia (1,244)?Although he has specified the cutoff at 1 million each week, it should read as 4 million
These countries all have more than 1 million population, which appears to be the cut-off you've specified?
1/14/2021 -385503 [23603] -huge bump in the last week!!! Way worse than NYC in the Spring of 2020. Avg 3300+ deaths per day.
1/21/2021 -406536 [21033] -still ridiculously high. Should come down with national infection trends and vaccine rollouts. Welcome to President Biden today. Apparently Mr. Trump did not actually have a vaccine roll out plan. How else to do you get 300 million people vaccinated? https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/politics/biden-covid-vaccination-trump/index.html
For Australia our Bureau of Statistics has interim figures. Our death rate has decreased in 2020. However, diabetes, dementia and cancer went up...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-16/deaths-from-respiratory-illnesses-lower-than-usual-amid-covid-19/13041324
They don't include suicide, but a study of one of our states, Queensland, showed that they were also tracking to be within the normal range...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-19/coronavirus-queensland-suicide-mental-health-deaths-research/12886418
Is there a source for deaths that might be indirectly related? ie suicide, opioids/drugs.
Yes JoJo, the 2020 final total CDC death count will pick up ALL the excess deaths that occurred via Covid (but not officially counted) or indirectly occurred due to the Covid crisis (someone had a heart attack but was too afraid to go to the ER, or someone died because the ICU was full of Covid patients and no more spots were available for critical care. 500,000 extra deaths DESPITE all mitigation efforts is a disaster of epic proportions.
Yes JoJo, the 2020 final total CDC death count will pick up ALL the excess deaths that occurred via Covid (but not officially counted) or indirectly occurred due to the Covid crisis (someone had a heart attack but was too afraid to go to the ER, or someone died because the ICU was full of Covid patients and no more spots were available for critical care. 500,000 extra deaths DESPITE all mitigation efforts is a disaster of epic proportions.
Meanwhile in Putin's Russia:
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-02-09-21/h_a9ad1544b917c6c0db84b2e6d60b4b64
"The figures also show a year-on-year surge in the country's overall mortality rate that suggests the numbers may have been majorly understated.
According to those new figures, a total of 2,124,479 people died in Russia in 2020, an increase of 323,802 over the previous year, or around an 18% year-on-year rise. That overall number -- the highest annual mortality figure recorded in Russia in over a decade -- reflects official reluctance to fully acknowledge the death toll. "
I posted this in the other thread, but thought some of you might take a look here as well:
--------------------------------------------
Let's do the math:
-330 million Americans
-74 million are children 0-18 yo (and at very low risk)
-That leaves 256 million of which are adults
-27 million confirmed Covid19 cases, I'll arbitrarily double that for unconfirmed cases, so 54 million have already had Covi19
-At current rate of 100K daily infections, perhaps another 6 million will be infected in the next 4 months or so (50 K x 120 days).
-46 million have already been vaccinated (at least once)
-We are vaccinating folks at about 1.5 million per day.
So.... 256-54-6-48 = 148 Million need vaccinations / 1.5 Million vaccinations per day = 98.7 days.
In 100 days, most everyone who wants a vaccination will be vaccinated at least once. Add 20 days and you'll have FULL vaccination of those folks. 120 days from now is ---> June 10th 2021
***If we are optimistic, we can consider that we will get better at vaccinating folks AND more vaccinations will become available. If this occurs, we may beat that projection by a month or so (148/2 million/day + 20 days = 94 days). If 80% of adults get vaccinated (or become infected), we will have 62% of the US population protected from Covid19. I believe 60-70% is the low end cut off for herd immunity.
****Once the studies are done showing it is safe and effective, the kids will get vaccinated in the fall. Hopefully before school starts in August. Boosters for all adults will likely be needed around that time as well.
*All data from NYTIMES, Wash Post, CDC websites.
This was fun, now pick it apart folks!
JGS
2/11/21 -472450 [20996] -no trending down as of yet. I'm beginning to get worried that people are just testing a lot less, thus case counts are going down but deaths are not. Are we taking our feet off the gas?
JGS
54 million Americans >65 in the US.
Best guess is most of them will be fully vaccinated in about 6-8 weeks. So Gen Pop can get their vaccines in Mid April?
Sharing some interesting info about the 3 waves/peaks in the USA... (sorry, can't figure out how to format my copy and paste info). We know the number of cases was way understated in wave #1. Comparing wave 2 to 3 says either the mortality rate is coming down or we are actually identifying more of the positive cases. Note, these mortality rates are WAY overstated... multiple parties are saying the true # of cases is at least 3-4x the amount officially recorded, so the mortality rate needs to be divided by 3-4.
7 day averages…
Cases Peak Deaths Peak
Date Cases Date Deaths # days Mortality Rate
Wave #1 4/10/2020 33,106 4/21/2020 2,262 11 6.83%
Wave #2 7/25/2020 70,616 8/4/2020 1,183 10 1.68%
Wave #3 1/11/2021 255,260 1/26/2021 3,449 15 1.35%
Sharing some interesting info about the 3 waves/peaks in the USA... (sorry, can't figure out how to format my copy and paste info). We know the number of cases was way understated in wave #1. Comparing wave 2 to 3 says either the mortality rate is coming down or we are actually identifying more of the positive cases. Note, these mortality rates are WAY overstated... multiple parties are saying the true # of cases is at least 3-4x the amount officially recorded, so the mortality rate needs to be divided by 3-4.
7 day averages…
Cases Peak Deaths Peak
Date Cases Date Deaths # days Mortality Rate
Wave #1 4/10/2020 33,106 4/21/2020 2,262 11 6.83%
Wave #2 7/25/2020 70,616 8/4/2020 1,183 10 1.68%
Wave #3 1/11/2021 255,260 1/26/2021 3,449 15 1.35%
Really hard to do this math as we were test-constrained early on. E.g. we were running at ~20% positivity nationally in parts of March and April. This also suggest we were test-constrained for much of December & January as we were back at 10+% positivity levels.
I don't think we had much of a "wave #2" so much as the testing caught up to the demand.
Additionally, there are countless deaths that were never solved, especially in the first half of 2020. A lot of vague "pneumonia-like" illnesses that were never diagnosed. So the true death count won't be known for awhile as they sort through "excess deaths" and essentially they'll have to estimate a bunch of deaths that were never officially diagnosed as covid. All that to say, I don't think "divide by 3-4" will get you the answer you're seeking.
Looks like the final US death toll might be around 550k. I remember placing a bet with a Mustachian a year ago and he said the death toll would be 1m and I said it would be under. Fortunately I was right.
The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced.
If you average US cases over more than one week, there was no effect from the holidays that is distinguishable from the overall trajectory in cases during Q4 2020 (i.e. any peak in cases was due to reporting lag). Also, if the holiday effect was important, countries with greater restrictions or impositions on movement during the holiday period would have fared better. I don't see evidence of this with my naive view on Worldometer.The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced.
Why would it collapse in early January if it was seasonal? The weather isn't really changing then in much of the northern hemisphere - it was cold in late December, it was cold in January, and it's still cold in February.
I'd guess the difference is that people stopped traveling and gathering for those big family holidays and parties in November and December and the spread slowed down below a critical point (deceleration vs. acceleration). That plus vaccinations and lockdowns and so on have slowed it down.
If you average US cases over more than one week, there was no effect from the holidays that is distinguishable from the overall trajectory in cases during Q4 2020 (i.e. any peak in cases was due to reporting lag). Also, if the holiday effect was important, countries with greater restrictions or impositions on movement during the holiday period would have fared better. I don't see evidence of this with my naive view on Worldomoter.
Overall, my point is even a 7 day average fails when people take multiple days off to celebrate a holiday. The peaks following Thanksgiving and Xmas fill in valleys during those days, suggesting most of the anomaly was due to reporting lag. When I suggest seasonal forcing, it's known coronaviruses have an earlier peak than influenza (it's not clear why from what I've been able to find).If you average US cases over more than one week, there was no effect from the holidays that is distinguishable from the overall trajectory in cases during Q4 2020 (i.e. any peak in cases was due to reporting lag). Also, if the holiday effect was important, countries with greater restrictions or impositions on movement during the holiday period would have fared better. I don't see evidence of this with my naive view on Worldomoter.
I only monitor my local cases carefully - there was a very clear pattern in New York. Steepening acceleration after Thanksgiving, then slowed down almost to a flat plateau with the 'corner' of the curve almost exactly two weeks after Thanksgiving. Steep acceleration after Christmas, then abruptly peaked and started dropping around January 12th. A bit more than two weeks, probably because there was more travel after Christmas and also a bunch of New Years parties. But still, the link to the holidays seems clear. There was no other reason for them to leap and plateau/drop when they did.
It's probably harder to see patterns when you are mixing states and countries since they are reporting differently with different amounts of lag and that's going to smear the data points. (And some states are doing a lousy job in general.)
If you average US cases over more than one week, there was no effect from the holidays that is distinguishable from the overall trajectory in cases during Q4 2020 (i.e. any peak in cases was due to reporting lag). Also, if the holiday effect was important, countries with greater restrictions or impositions on movement during the holiday period would have fared better. I don't see evidence of this with my naive view on Worldometer.The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced.
Why would it collapse in early January if it was seasonal? The weather isn't really changing then in much of the northern hemisphere - it was cold in late December, it was cold in January, and it's still cold in February.
I'd guess the difference is that people stopped traveling and gathering for those big family holidays and parties in November and December and the spread slowed down below a critical point (deceleration vs. acceleration). That plus vaccinations and lockdowns and so on have slowed it down.
The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced. Policies (lockdowns, masks) don't matter and (so far) vaccinations haven't mattered.
The sudden collapse in cases starting in early January (mostly) globally is bizarre enough for me to think that almost everything about the case pattern has been seasonally forced. Policies (lockdowns, masks) don't matter and (so far) vaccinations haven't mattered.
I think the simpler explanation is that we've continually underestimated the contagiousness of this virus, and a LOT more people have been exposed than we think. Vaccinations are accelerating the growth of the immune population, but you're correct that the collapse in cases started before vaccinations could have an effect.
I predict herd immunity or some reasonable approximation (ie very few cases/nigh-insignificant spread outside of small clusters) by April in the US.
-W
College kids spreading to other college kids is not likely to result in many deaths, unless they all travel back to meet their grandparents during or shortly after spring break.
As a PCP, there is ALWAYS a boom in upper respiratory viral syndromes after School Starts, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas and New Year's holidays, and after Spring Break. Every year. Because people are spending more time around each other in closed environments AND because folks travel and mix their biomes during these times. Then these booms peter out as the infections run their course. The recent Covid drop in cases fit this pattern.
JGS
As a PCP, there is ALWAYS a boom in upper respiratory viral syndromes after School Starts, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas and New Year's holidays, and after Spring Break. Every year. Because people are spending more time around each other in closed environments AND because folks travel and mix their biomes during these times. Then these booms peter out as the infections run their course. The recent Covid drop in cases fit this pattern.
JGS
Sure, but this "boom" started in October or November, depending on how you want to look at the data (in the US), which really doesn't fit with any of the events you're referencing (most schools that went back in person, which were very rare, started in August/September). There were some minor ups and downs from then until early January that you can attribute to holidays and such, but the trend was consistently up, up, up. Finally cases/hospitalizations and now deaths started declining *very* rapidly. It's pretty clear that's not just because Christmas is over, and it's clearly not because the weather got warmer!
We're vaccinating something like 1.5 million people a day and that number will continue to go up. Leaving out kids who constitute 1/5 of the population, and including all the built in immunity from people who have been exposed, plus the ~50 million people vaccinated... it's just really math. Covid is getting rapidly crushed.
Like I said in another thread, that doesn't mean go make out with everyone at your local Elks club, but if you want a normal fun summer, you'll be able to have one.
-W
As a PCP, there is ALWAYS a boom in upper respiratory viral syndromes after School Starts, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas and New Year's holidays, and after Spring Break. Every year. Because people are spending more time around each other in closed environments AND because folks travel and mix their biomes during these times. Then these booms peter out as the infections run their course. The recent Covid drop in cases fit this pattern.
JGS
Sure, but this "boom" started in October or November, depending on how you want to look at the data (in the US), which really doesn't fit with any of the events you're referencing (most schools that went back in person, which were very rare, started in August/September). There were some minor ups and downs from then until early January that you can attribute to holidays and such, but the trend was consistently up, up, up. Finally cases/hospitalizations and now deaths started declining *very* rapidly. It's pretty clear that's not just because Christmas is over, and it's clearly not because the weather got warmer!
We're vaccinating something like 1.5 million people a day and that number will continue to go up. Leaving out kids who constitute 1/5 of the population, and including all the built in immunity from people who have been exposed, plus the ~50 million people vaccinated... it's just really math. Covid is getting rapidly crushed.
Like I said in another thread, that doesn't mean go make out with everyone at your local Elks club, but if you want a normal fun summer, you'll be able to have one.
-W
As a PCP, there is ALWAYS a boom in upper respiratory viral syndromes after School Starts, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas and New Year's holidays, and after Spring Break. Every year. Because people are spending more time around each other in closed environments AND because folks travel and mix their biomes during these times. Then these booms peter out as the infections run their course. The recent Covid drop in cases fit this pattern.
JGS
Sure, but this "boom" started in October or November, depending on how you want to look at the data (in the US), which really doesn't fit with any of the events you're referencing (most schools that went back in person, which were very rare, started in August/September). There were some minor ups and downs from then until early January that you can attribute to holidays and such, but the trend was consistently up, up, up. Finally cases/hospitalizations and now deaths started declining *very* rapidly. It's pretty clear that's not just because Christmas is over, and it's clearly not because the weather got warmer!
We're vaccinating something like 1.5 million people a day and that number will continue to go up. Leaving out kids who constitute 1/5 of the population, and including all the built in immunity from people who have been exposed, plus the ~50 million people vaccinated... it's just really math. Covid is getting rapidly crushed.
Like I said in another thread, that doesn't mean go make out with everyone at your local Elks club, but if you want a normal fun summer, you'll be able to have one.
-W
Sure Walt, believe what you want. I won't argue with you since you know better.
Weren't you the one letting your kids play with other children at the playground last year because 'kids don't get sick or spread it' before your whole family got covid last year Walt?
Sure Walt, believe what you want. I won't argue with you since you know better.
Sure Walt, believe what you want. I won't argue with you since you know better.
Want to have a friendly bet for charity? If I win, you donate $100 to a charity of my choice, and vise versa?
I contend: we will never again see 7-day average case numbers over 60,000/day - the peak has permanently passed, though there may be minor increases day to day. The exact details of how fast case numbers are going to collapse will depend mostly on vaccine hesitancy, not capacity, so it's hard to say when we'll go under 10,000/day, but I'll guess sometime in June.
I take it you are thinking we'll see a spring break surge? That's roughly March/April since those breaks are spread out quite a bit for different schools/places, of course. Think we'll get back up over 100k cases/day (7 day average)? If so, when?
-W
I don't know about all schools, but many colleges aren't having spring break at all.
Dr. Fauci said the U.S. will have 600m vaccination doses (enough for the ~300m adults in this country) by July. Of course, not all 300m will get it, what with the anti-vax movement and anti-covid vax movement (those two can overlap but there are certainly plenty of anti-covid vaxxers who aren't anti-vax in general). So, as long as states can roll it out somewhat competently (not a given), you are likely to be able to get yours started by May-ish if you are, say, under 40/45 with no underlying conditions or an occupation that would move you up.
Good news is that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the new strains in terms of limiting the need for hospitalization and death. There may be a "booster" required if that changes but they can change these mRNA vaccines pretty quickly to counter that if needed.
Fwiw, I have a family member in healthcare who is predicting "near herd immunity" by June. That is to say...basically the anti-covid vaxxers are going to be very likely to have gotten (or will get) covid and develop some short-term immunity while the rest of the country is likely to get vaccinated. Together, those groups very well could make up 70+% of the population in a few months time.
The big question mark are the variants and the vaccines are holding up very well against those.
What is the % of under-18s in the US? Until they are eligible for vaccination (I gather the testing has started for that age group) they are a big potential reservoir population.
Dr. Fauci said the U.S. will have 600m vaccination doses (enough for the ~300m adults in this country) by July. Of course, not all 300m will get it, what with the anti-vax movement and anti-covid vax movement (those two can overlap but there are certainly plenty of anti-covid vaxxers who aren't anti-vax in general). So, as long as states can roll it out somewhat competently (not a given), you are likely to be able to get yours started by May-ish if you are, say, under 40/45 with no underlying conditions or an occupation that would move you up.
Good news is that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the new strains in terms of limiting the need for hospitalization and death. There may be a "booster" required if that changes but they can change these mRNA vaccines pretty quickly to counter that if needed.
Fwiw, I have a family member in healthcare who is predicting "near herd immunity" by June. That is to say...basically the anti-covid vaxxers are going to be very likely to have gotten (or will get) covid and develop some short-term immunity while the rest of the country is likely to get vaccinated. Together, those groups very well could make up 70+% of the population in a few months time.
The big question mark are the variants and the vaccines are holding up very well against those.
What is the % of under-18s in the US? Until they are eligible for vaccination (I gather the testing has started for that age group) they are a big potential reservoir population.
Dr. Fauci said the U.S. will have 600m vaccination doses (enough for the ~300m adults in this country) by July. Of course, not all 300m will get it, what with the anti-vax movement and anti-covid vax movement (those two can overlap but there are certainly plenty of anti-covid vaxxers who aren't anti-vax in general). So, as long as states can roll it out somewhat competently (not a given), you are likely to be able to get yours started by May-ish if you are, say, under 40/45 with no underlying conditions or an occupation that would move you up.
Good news is that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the new strains in terms of limiting the need for hospitalization and death. There may be a "booster" required if that changes but they can change these mRNA vaccines pretty quickly to counter that if needed.
Fwiw, I have a family member in healthcare who is predicting "near herd immunity" by June. That is to say...basically the anti-covid vaxxers are going to be very likely to have gotten (or will get) covid and develop some short-term immunity while the rest of the country is likely to get vaccinated. Together, those groups very well could make up 70+% of the population in a few months time.
The big question mark are the variants and the vaccines are holding up very well against those.
What is the % of under-18s in the US? Until they are eligible for vaccination (I gather the testing has started for that age group) they are a big potential reservoir population.
24%. My bad on phrasing it as 300m adults, they're just targeting 300m people to get it (presumably because some people won't get it - antivaxxers - and some people have conditions that prevent them from getting it).
They're doing some age-related testing now for below 18. They'll end up getting it later/last if it proves to be safe.
Dr. Fauci said the U.S. will have 600m vaccination doses (enough for the ~300m adults in this country) by July. Of course, not all 300m will get it, what with the anti-vax movement and anti-covid vax movement (those two can overlap but there are certainly plenty of anti-covid vaxxers who aren't anti-vax in general). So, as long as states can roll it out somewhat competently (not a given), you are likely to be able to get yours started by May-ish if you are, say, under 40/45 with no underlying conditions or an occupation that would move you up.
Good news is that the vaccines are showing effectiveness against the new strains in terms of limiting the need for hospitalization and death. There may be a "booster" required if that changes but they can change these mRNA vaccines pretty quickly to counter that if needed.
Fwiw, I have a family member in healthcare who is predicting "near herd immunity" by June. That is to say...basically the anti-covid vaxxers are going to be very likely to have gotten (or will get) covid and develop some short-term immunity while the rest of the country is likely to get vaccinated. Together, those groups very well could make up 70+% of the population in a few months time.
The big question mark are the variants and the vaccines are holding up very well against those.
What is the % of under-18s in the US? Until they are eligible for vaccination (I gather the testing has started for that age group) they are a big potential reservoir population.
24%. My bad on phrasing it as 300m adults, they're just targeting 300m people to get it (presumably because some people won't get it - antivaxxers - and some people have conditions that prevent them from getting it).
They're doing some age-related testing now for below 18. They'll end up getting it later/last if it proves to be safe.
So if 24% are under 18, that means 76% 18+ Any new figures for % population for herd immunity - I'm guessing that the more contagious variants will have changed the numbers? I knew they had started the testing, I hope the results come fairly soon, because all those schools reopening are just places for the virus to spread until the students are vaccinated.
I guess it's a good thing for the world as their deaths are going down faster than US deaths.
Too soon to see where vaccines are making the most impact, but I think the UK is a prime candidate as they got started with vaccines a bit earlier than US. However, hard to tell how much of their drop is just secondary to completing their "wave" of infection. UK is certainly doing better than Czech Republic which is still getting slammed.
No one really knows because we've never been through something like this. Vaccines are still excellent at preventing severe symptoms, hospitalizations, and deaths against all known variants.
We are now 6 days into the plateau in the # of cases curve in the US... so weird how fast it was sharply dropping for one full month after inauguration, then flat (if not trending up just slightly), not a general tapering off... so weird these stats
Texas should at least be an interesting case study... they are 8th highest in cases now.
Excited the vaccines are rolling, but sad fact I saw last night is something like 23% of doses are going unused because people aren't showing up for appointments, bad logistics to get them in other arms at last minute, expiring doses or doses that can't stay at the right temps (power outages, etc). Hopefully J&J can ramp up production... heck, send them to every Walgreens, CVS, etc... those shops are everywhere, good way to get out to the neighborhoods.
I don't think vaccine waste is the story.
I think the real story is the approx 30 % of US Adults who STILL refuse to get vaccinated at all.
I wonder how much of that population directly overlaps with those who've already had the disease and thought it "wasn't a big deal" for them, so who cares about how it effects others. Meanwhile, they get to benefit from the immunity conveyed to them by others getting vaccinated instead.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/538198-over-30-percent-of-americans-say-they-wont-get-covid-19-vaccine-poll
Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others? I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.
Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others? I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.
Preliminary results and every other vaccine for everything else say yes, but we won't know *for sure* for a bit longer.
-W
We're over 30% vaccinated (including pretty much 100% in any high risk category) where I live and when I went to get my shot yesterday they were moving people through *fast*. By the end of the month I'm guessing we'll be done with all restrictions.
We're over 30% vaccinated (including pretty much 100% in any high risk category) where I live and when I went to get my shot yesterday they were moving people through *fast*. By the end of the month I'm guessing we'll be done with all restrictions.
That's both doses? That's incredible! We're at 8%.
We're over 30% vaccinated (including pretty much 100% in any high risk category) where I live and when I went to get my shot yesterday they were moving people through *fast*. By the end of the month I'm guessing we'll be done with all restrictions.
That's both doses? That's incredible! We're at 8%.
No U.S. state has reached 30% with one shot, let alone two. Someone doesn't have their stats correct.
No U.S. state has reached 30% with one shot, let alone two. Someone doesn't have their stats correct.
Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others? I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.
Preliminary results and every other vaccine for everything else say yes, but we won't know *for sure* for a bit longer.
-W
What I saw was 66% reduction in spread once fully vaccinated. Can't remember where I read that, though.
Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others? I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.
Preliminary results and every other vaccine for everything else say yes, but we won't know *for sure* for a bit longer.
-W
What I saw was 66% reduction in spread once fully vaccinated. Can't remember where I read that, though.
Thanks. Well, that's great news in either case then! I guess I am still stuck in the 'novel' phase where there were so many unknowns.
Has it been determined yet if the vaccine prevents spreading to others? I thought that was unknown but I heard that at least a couple of months ago.
Preliminary results and every other vaccine for everything else say yes, but we won't know *for sure* for a bit longer.
-W
What I saw was 66% reduction in spread once fully vaccinated. Can't remember where I read that, though.
Thanks. Well, that's great news in either case then! I guess I am still stuck in the 'novel' phase where there were so many unknowns.
Neither of thise points of view are currently supported by enough data to draw conclusions. There are vaccines that exist which that prevent symptoms of a disease without preventing transmission (like the vaccine for whooping cough for example). We don't know yet if there is reduction of spread of covid from vaccination.
We do know that people who are fully vaccinated can still get covid, and the best data available indicates that if you have covid you can spread it to others. The vaccines have been proven to be great at preventing serious illness/death from developing due to the disease. That's it so far. We are still in the novel phase of this disease, no matter how much we want solid answers to these questions.
Texas (and other less populated red states) will help get those numbers back up for ya! Seriously, has any other country in history ever prematurely declared that the pandemic is over, in the middle of a pandemic?
Good ole MD gov is really opening up the state saying metrics warrant it... and yet metrics i believe are same as early Fall when things were still less open LOL
at least he's keeping the mask mandate
Good ole MD gov is really opening up the state saying metrics warrant it... and yet metrics i believe are same as early Fall when things were still less open LOL
at least he's keeping the mask mandate
The daily numbers may be similar, but the situation is pretty different than it was in the fall. There are more people with some level of immunity now thanks to natural exposure and vaccinating those most at risk. It's worth going to great lengths to try and avoid widespread hospitalization and death, but the risk/reward calculus changes if the people that were most likely to get very sick or die have all been vaccinated. That risk has been greatly diminished in recent months.
Good ole MD gov is really opening up the state saying metrics warrant it... and yet metrics i believe are same as early Fall when things were still less open LOL
at least he's keeping the mask mandate
The daily numbers may be similar, but the situation is pretty different than it was in the fall. There are more people with some level of immunity now thanks to natural exposure and vaccinating those most at risk. It's worth going to great lengths to try and avoid widespread hospitalization and death, but the risk/reward calculus changes if the people that were most likely to get very sick or die have all been vaccinated. That risk has been greatly diminished in recent months.
Good ole MD gov is really opening up the state saying metrics warrant it... and yet metrics i believe are same as early Fall when things were still less open LOL
at least he's keeping the mask mandate
The daily numbers may be similar, but the situation is pretty different than it was in the fall. There are more people with some level of immunity now thanks to natural exposure and vaccinating those most at risk. It's worth going to great lengths to try and avoid widespread hospitalization and death, but the risk/reward calculus changes if the people that were most likely to get very sick or die have all been vaccinated. That risk has been greatly diminished in recent months.
True, but the UK and South African variants weren't here at the time either, both reported in MD within the last 4 weeks or so.
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday. 7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction! Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.
In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.
https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/daily-deaths-during-coronavirus-pandemic-by-stateAnother 6 month low in # of cases yesterday. 7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction! Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.
In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.
I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?
The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.
I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?
The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday. 7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction! Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.
In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.
I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?
The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/405101-2020-death-data-paints-grim-picture-of-covid-19s-human-toll
TLDR: In 2019 Florida saw 9.7 deaths per 1000 residents. In 2020 that number grew to 11.1 deaths per 1000 residents. Florida probably had 25-30k deaths due to covid, and their official number for 2020 calendar year was 21890
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday. 7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction! Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.
In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.
I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?
The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/405101-2020-death-data-paints-grim-picture-of-covid-19s-human-toll
TLDR: In 2019 Florida saw 9.7 deaths per 1000 residents. In 2020 that number grew to 11.1 deaths per 1000 residents. Florida probably had 25-30k deaths due to covid, and their official number for 2020 calendar year was 21890
Another 6 month low in # of cases yesterday. 7 day rolling average continues to drop, slowly but it's the right direction! Vilified states of TX and FL still seem to be dropping, will see if that turns around in a week or two post spring break.
In international news, it's encouraging to see the cases finally dropping in Israel over the last few days, a country with one of the highest vaccination rates.
I'm tapped out time wise right now, but does anyone want to do a 2019 vs 2020 total deaths comparison for the states of Texas and/or Florida?
The reason I ask is because their Covid death data has been suspiciously low IMHO. Would be nice to see some hard data to prove me wrong. Then again, if there were 25% excess deaths in Florida for the 2020 year, and yet Florida Covid deaths are really low, then that just means they are juking the numbers for political and (possibly) economic gain.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/405101-2020-death-data-paints-grim-picture-of-covid-19s-human-toll
TLDR: In 2019 Florida saw 9.7 deaths per 1000 residents. In 2020 that number grew to 11.1 deaths per 1000 residents. Florida probably had 25-30k deaths due to covid, and their official number for 2020 calendar year was 21890
Even Saturday's New York Times stated that Florida's death rate was average or less.
"Yet Florida’s death rate is no worse than the national average, and better than that of some other states that imposed more restrictions, despite its large numbers of retirees" https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/13/us/coronavirus-florida-booming.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/13/us/coronavirus-florida-booming.html)
This is with having the second highest percentage of people over 65 (by 0.1%) and the highest percentage by far of people over 75.
Here’s a study (not peer reviewed) from MIT and Harvard suggesting MALS mandates helped slightly. It’s not that great a study, but probably as good as we can get to a systematic analysis of the question given how variable the response was across the states.It's strange they start measuring for effects on deaths, hospitalizations, and cases at day zero. Incubation would put any effects on cases out possibly a week (or more depending on testing backlogs unless the states backdated the results to the specimen-collect date), hospitalizations should lag by maybe 2 weeks, and deaths by 3 weeks. Moving the start point to the right for each of those metrics on their chart might negate much of the effect they are measuring. Or maybe I'm misunderstanding what they did wrt day zero.
I’ll be interested to see people’s analysis of the methods used, and if it gets published eventually.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.19.21250132v3.article-info
Why did they report cases and deaths in standard deviations and hospitalizations in percentage point change?
Something very odd is happening there, too. A half a standard deviation is a lot. 2 percent is tiny. How are the masks having so little effect on hospitalizations and such a large effect on deaths?
-W
Why did they report cases and deaths in standard deviations and hospitalizations in percentage point change?
Something very odd is happening there, too. A half a standard deviation is a lot. 2 percent is tiny. How are the masks having so little effect on hospitalizations and such a large effect on deaths?
-W
Possible reduction in viral load being received, allowing people's immune systems to get a leg up on it?
Why did they report cases and deaths in standard deviations and hospitalizations in percentage point change?
Something very odd is happening there, too. A half a standard deviation is a lot. 2 percent is tiny. How are the masks having so little effect on hospitalizations and such a large effect on deaths?
-W
Possible reduction in viral load being received, allowing people's immune systems to get a leg up on it?
Sure, but why wouldn't that reduce deaths as well? Hospitalizations and deaths have been almost perfectly correlated.
-W
Curious why the contagious "UK-variant" we've been told we need to be so afraid of hasn't spread all over the UK (not sure of the severity of lockdowns there, which may explain it)
Why did they report cases and deaths in standard deviations and hospitalizations in percentage point change?
Something very odd is happening there, too. A half a standard deviation is a lot. 2 percent is tiny. How are the masks having so little effect on hospitalizations and such a large effect on deaths?
-W
Possible reduction in viral load being received, allowing people's immune systems to get a leg up on it?
Sure, but why wouldn't that reduce deaths as well? Hospitalizations and deaths have been almost perfectly correlated.
-W
Walt, are you looking at the reported covid deaths? if you look at the overall death rate in California . . . excess mortality has plummeted to levels a lot lower than usual (since the 27th of Jan they've been at or below average). If you look at the same in Florida excess mortality is much higher than usual since December.
https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/daily-deaths-during-coronavirus-pandemic-by-state (https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/daily-deaths-during-coronavirus-pandemic-by-state)
Also in international news, any thoughts on the latest Italy lockdowns and talk of a third wave in Europe?
Hospitalizations and deaths are mostly among the population that has been prioritized for vaccines, so I'd tend to agree that those numbers are more useful than pure cases now. The relationship between cases and hospitalizations/deaths is going to change dramatically with more people vaccinated.
-W
Isn't at least the UK variant associated with a significantly higher death rate (on the order of 50% higher)?
One potential explanation could be that the growth in the frequency of that variant in the USA would normally be bringing up the death rate, and right now the vaccination of the most at risk are essentially cancelling each other out.
I'm optimistic that the death spike will be blunted this time around since most of the high-risk people in the US have gotten at least one dose of a vaccine.
I'm optimistic that the death spike will be blunted this time around since most of the high-risk people in the US have gotten at least one dose of a vaccine.
Dibs on the name “Blunted Death Spike” for my new metal band.
U.S. vaccination take rate appears to have stalled out just over 40%. Israel didn't see their big drop in cases until 50+% of the population was vaccinated. U.S. may not reach herd immunity for quite some time at the current rate of vaccination.
U.S. vaccination take rate appears to have stalled out just over 40%. Israel didn't see their big drop in cases until 50+% of the population was vaccinated. U.S. may not reach herd immunity for quite some time at the current rate of vaccination.From the vaccination tracking info, it looks like the US asymptote is closer to ~50%. About 30% of the US population is estimated to have been infected to date. If vaccination and infection are independent, immunity would be at 65% assuming everyone vaccinated and/or previously infected is not susceptible. Also note that <16 (~20% of population) are not eligible for vaccination, suffer far less severe outcomes if infected, and due to a more potent innate immunity (unless there is new research I have not encountered) are less likely to spread the virus. At that level, I would expect much of the US to have sufficient coverage, while some areas with lower prior infections and vaccination coverage may sporadically see smaller outbreaks akin to Michigan's recent resurgence.
https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05U.S. vaccination take rate appears to have stalled out just over 40%. Israel didn't see their big drop in cases until 50+% of the population was vaccinated. U.S. may not reach herd immunity for quite some time at the current rate of vaccination.From the vaccination tracking info, it looks like the US asymptote is closer to ~50%. About 30% of the US population is estimated to have been infected to date. If vaccination and infection are independent, immunity would be at 65% assuming everyone vaccinated and/or previously infected is not susceptible. Also note that <16 (~20% of population) are not eligible for vaccination, suffer far less severe outcomes if infected, and due to a more potent innate immunity (unless there is new research I have not encountered) are less likely to spread the virus. At that level, I would expect much of the US to have sufficient coverage, while some areas with lower prior infections and vaccination coverage may sporadically see smaller outbreaks akin to Michigan's recent resurgence.
US 7-day average case counts began a steep 6 week drop starting on January 12th at 1.5% vaccine coverage (annoyingly, Bloomberg's tracker doesn't distinguish in the time series data between one person/two shots and two people/one shot). Israel topped out around 5 days later with per-capita case rates 20% higher than in the US, at which point, they were at 12% vaccine coverage. By the time Israel had 50% coverage, their cases had already fallen 65% from peak--so it is not correct to say there was no significant drop in cases prior to reaching 50% (also note that immunity builds for weeks after first and second doses, so while the shot is counted on the day administered, the immune effects are 1-4 weeks in the future). Of course, the question of what was driving the case trajectory is not clear given the lower vaccination numbers in the US resulting in similar declines in cases over the same period. I think if we were to look at age-stratified data from Israel, we could see a clearer effect since--like many countries--Israel prioritized the earlier supply for older residents.
If that was significant and the US switched over immediately to 30 cycles, then we would have seen a discontinuous drop in cases in January. Instead we saw a long, continuous decline, suggesting that the change in diagnostic criteria (assuming the US actually uniformly adopted it) was not decisive in the case drop. The case positivity rate also suggests a continuous evolution in disease prevalence rather than a change criteria. Also, the case count in the US was already turning over prior to this directive so it is likely the case drop signal starting in January is real rather than an artifact of a change in diagnostic criteria. Is there any data on how many cases between 30 and 40 amplification cycles there were in the US leading to possible false-positives?https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05U.S. vaccination take rate appears to have stalled out just over 40%. Israel didn't see their big drop in cases until 50+% of the population was vaccinated. U.S. may not reach herd immunity for quite some time at the current rate of vaccination.From the vaccination tracking info, it looks like the US asymptote is closer to ~50%. About 30% of the US population is estimated to have been infected to date. If vaccination and infection are independent, immunity would be at 65% assuming everyone vaccinated and/or previously infected is not susceptible. Also note that <16 (~20% of population) are not eligible for vaccination, suffer far less severe outcomes if infected, and due to a more potent innate immunity (unless there is new research I have not encountered) are less likely to spread the virus. At that level, I would expect much of the US to have sufficient coverage, while some areas with lower prior infections and vaccination coverage may sporadically see smaller outbreaks akin to Michigan's recent resurgence.
US 7-day average case counts began a steep 6 week drop starting on January 12th at 1.5% vaccine coverage (annoyingly, Bloomberg's tracker doesn't distinguish in the time series data between one person/two shots and two people/one shot). Israel topped out around 5 days later with per-capita case rates 20% higher than in the US, at which point, they were at 12% vaccine coverage. By the time Israel had 50% coverage, their cases had already fallen 65% from peak--so it is not correct to say there was no significant drop in cases prior to reaching 50% (also note that immunity builds for weeks after first and second doses, so while the shot is counted on the day administered, the immune effects are 1-4 weeks in the future). Of course, the question of what was driving the case trajectory is not clear given the lower vaccination numbers in the US resulting in similar declines in cases over the same period. I think if we were to look at age-stratified data from Israel, we could see a clearer effect since--like many countries--Israel prioritized the earlier supply for older residents.
WHO changed the guidelines for lab testing and what constitutes a "positive result."
1. The amplification cycles were reduced from 40 to 30 because there were too many "false positives."
2. PCR test by itself is no longer enough for a positive diagnosis. A second test or exhibiting symptoms is required now.
As noted in the update, it is a clarification of a December 14th, 2020 order. I am guessing that is was not uniformly adopted if it need a clarification. Which would stretch the change out over a period of time.If that was significant and the US switched over immediately to 30 cycles, then we would have seen a discontinuous drop in cases in January. Instead we saw a long, continuous decline, suggesting that the change in diagnostic criteria (assuming the US actually uniformly adopted it) was not decisive in the case drop. The case positivity rate also suggests a continuous evolution in disease prevalence rather than a change criteria. Also, the case count in the US was already turning over prior to this directive so it is likely the case drop signal starting in January is real rather than an artifact of a change in diagnostic criteria. Is there any data on how many cases between 30 and 40 amplification cycles there were in the US leading to possible false-positives?https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05U.S. vaccination take rate appears to have stalled out just over 40%. Israel didn't see their big drop in cases until 50+% of the population was vaccinated. U.S. may not reach herd immunity for quite some time at the current rate of vaccination.From the vaccination tracking info, it looks like the US asymptote is closer to ~50%. About 30% of the US population is estimated to have been infected to date. If vaccination and infection are independent, immunity would be at 65% assuming everyone vaccinated and/or previously infected is not susceptible. Also note that <16 (~20% of population) are not eligible for vaccination, suffer far less severe outcomes if infected, and due to a more potent innate immunity (unless there is new research I have not encountered) are less likely to spread the virus. At that level, I would expect much of the US to have sufficient coverage, while some areas with lower prior infections and vaccination coverage may sporadically see smaller outbreaks akin to Michigan's recent resurgence.
US 7-day average case counts began a steep 6 week drop starting on January 12th at 1.5% vaccine coverage (annoyingly, Bloomberg's tracker doesn't distinguish in the time series data between one person/two shots and two people/one shot). Israel topped out around 5 days later with per-capita case rates 20% higher than in the US, at which point, they were at 12% vaccine coverage. By the time Israel had 50% coverage, their cases had already fallen 65% from peak--so it is not correct to say there was no significant drop in cases prior to reaching 50% (also note that immunity builds for weeks after first and second doses, so while the shot is counted on the day administered, the immune effects are 1-4 weeks in the future). Of course, the question of what was driving the case trajectory is not clear given the lower vaccination numbers in the US resulting in similar declines in cases over the same period. I think if we were to look at age-stratified data from Israel, we could see a clearer effect since--like many countries--Israel prioritized the earlier supply for older residents.
WHO changed the guidelines for lab testing and what constitutes a "positive result."
1. The amplification cycles were reduced from 40 to 30 because there were too many "false positives."
2. PCR test by itself is no longer enough for a positive diagnosis. A second test or exhibiting symptoms is required now.
Officials at the Wadsworth Center, New York’s state lab, have access to C.T. values from tests they have processed, and analyzed their numbers at The Times’s request. In July, the lab identified 794 positive tests, based on a threshold of 40 cycles.
With a cutoff of 35, about half of those tests would no longer qualify as positive. About 70 percent would no longer be judged positive if the cycles were limited to 30.
In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said.
Other experts informed of these numbers were stunned.
“I’m really shocked that it could be that high — the proportion of people with high C.T. value results,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “Boy, does it really change the way we need to be thinking about testing.”
Interesting, didn't know that such a change had occurred and that it might make such a big difference. I'm thinking that should show up in the CFR data though, with CFR increasing after the changed criteria--assuming, of course, that the reduced cutoff for PCR cycles is indeed eliminating false-positives. When I look at trailing 2 week average CFR comparing current deaths to case counts from 3 weeks prior, CFR stays hovering around 1.5% from December through March, after which, it falls to 1% during April-May (vaccination effect?). If the high cycles were really leading to over-counts of the magnitude suggested by the NYT article, CFR would have increased by 2-6x, all other things being equal. On the other hand, if the impact of cycle counts was far more modest (let's say 30%) then that leaves most of the case count drop from the January peak unexplained. So something is still not adding up.As noted in the update, it is a clarification of a December 14th, 2020 order. I am guessing that is was not uniformly adopted if it need a clarification. Which would stretch the change out over a period of time.If that was significant and the US switched over immediately to 30 cycles, then we would have seen a discontinuous drop in cases in January. Instead we saw a long, continuous decline, suggesting that the change in diagnostic criteria (assuming the US actually uniformly adopted it) was not decisive in the case drop. The case positivity rate also suggests a continuous evolution in disease prevalence rather than a change criteria. Also, the case count in the US was already turning over prior to this directive so it is likely the case drop signal starting in January is real rather than an artifact of a change in diagnostic criteria. Is there any data on how many cases between 30 and 40 amplification cycles there were in the US leading to possible false-positives?https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05U.S. vaccination take rate appears to have stalled out just over 40%. Israel didn't see their big drop in cases until 50+% of the population was vaccinated. U.S. may not reach herd immunity for quite some time at the current rate of vaccination.From the vaccination tracking info, it looks like the US asymptote is closer to ~50%. About 30% of the US population is estimated to have been infected to date. If vaccination and infection are independent, immunity would be at 65% assuming everyone vaccinated and/or previously infected is not susceptible. Also note that <16 (~20% of population) are not eligible for vaccination, suffer far less severe outcomes if infected, and due to a more potent innate immunity (unless there is new research I have not encountered) are less likely to spread the virus. At that level, I would expect much of the US to have sufficient coverage, while some areas with lower prior infections and vaccination coverage may sporadically see smaller outbreaks akin to Michigan's recent resurgence.
US 7-day average case counts began a steep 6 week drop starting on January 12th at 1.5% vaccine coverage (annoyingly, Bloomberg's tracker doesn't distinguish in the time series data between one person/two shots and two people/one shot). Israel topped out around 5 days later with per-capita case rates 20% higher than in the US, at which point, they were at 12% vaccine coverage. By the time Israel had 50% coverage, their cases had already fallen 65% from peak--so it is not correct to say there was no significant drop in cases prior to reaching 50% (also note that immunity builds for weeks after first and second doses, so while the shot is counted on the day administered, the immune effects are 1-4 weeks in the future). Of course, the question of what was driving the case trajectory is not clear given the lower vaccination numbers in the US resulting in similar declines in cases over the same period. I think if we were to look at age-stratified data from Israel, we could see a clearer effect since--like many countries--Israel prioritized the earlier supply for older residents.
WHO changed the guidelines for lab testing and what constitutes a "positive result."
1. The amplification cycles were reduced from 40 to 30 because there were too many "false positives."
2. PCR test by itself is no longer enough for a positive diagnosis. A second test or exhibiting symptoms is required now.
And there was a 30% drop in COVID cases over the span of weeks that experts could not ascribe to seasonality, vaccinations or community immunity.
https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966757161/health-experts-examine-reasons-for-drop-in-covid-19-cases
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9219379/Why-coronavirus-cases-falling-fast-New-infections-drop-44-three-weeks.html
I will quote from the New York Times article (https://archive.md/TuTbB)QuoteOfficials at the Wadsworth Center, New York’s state lab, have access to C.T. values from tests they have processed, and analyzed their numbers at The Times’s request. In July, the lab identified 794 positive tests, based on a threshold of 40 cycles.
With a cutoff of 35, about half of those tests would no longer qualify as positive. About 70 percent would no longer be judged positive if the cycles were limited to 30.
In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said.
Other experts informed of these numbers were stunned.
“I’m really shocked that it could be that high — the proportion of people with high C.T. value results,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “Boy, does it really change the way we need to be thinking about testing.”
So no, I cannot find any data on how many false positives there are. It seems like it needs to be investigated.
I don't think we are going to have the truth until a few years down the line when we have more data. I would agree right now things aren't adding up.Interesting, didn't know that such a change had occurred and that it might make such a big difference. I'm thinking that should show up in the CFR data though, with CFR increasing after the changed criteria--assuming, of course, that the reduced cutoff for PCR cycles is indeed eliminating false-positives. When I look at trailing 2 week average CFR comparing current deaths to case counts from 3 weeks prior, CFR stays hovering around 1.5% from December through March, after which, it falls to 1% during April-May (vaccination effect?). If the high cycles were really leading to over-counts of the magnitude suggested by the NYT article, CFR would have increased by 2-6x, all other things being equal. On the other hand, if the impact of cycle counts was far more modest (let's say 30%) then that leaves most of the case count drop from the January peak unexplained. So something is still not adding up.As noted in the update, it is a clarification of a December 14th, 2020 order. I am guessing that is was not uniformly adopted if it need a clarification. Which would stretch the change out over a period of time.If that was significant and the US switched over immediately to 30 cycles, then we would have seen a discontinuous drop in cases in January. Instead we saw a long, continuous decline, suggesting that the change in diagnostic criteria (assuming the US actually uniformly adopted it) was not decisive in the case drop. The case positivity rate also suggests a continuous evolution in disease prevalence rather than a change criteria. Also, the case count in the US was already turning over prior to this directive so it is likely the case drop signal starting in January is real rather than an artifact of a change in diagnostic criteria. Is there any data on how many cases between 30 and 40 amplification cycles there were in the US leading to possible false-positives?https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05U.S. vaccination take rate appears to have stalled out just over 40%. Israel didn't see their big drop in cases until 50+% of the population was vaccinated. U.S. may not reach herd immunity for quite some time at the current rate of vaccination.From the vaccination tracking info, it looks like the US asymptote is closer to ~50%. About 30% of the US population is estimated to have been infected to date. If vaccination and infection are independent, immunity would be at 65% assuming everyone vaccinated and/or previously infected is not susceptible. Also note that <16 (~20% of population) are not eligible for vaccination, suffer far less severe outcomes if infected, and due to a more potent innate immunity (unless there is new research I have not encountered) are less likely to spread the virus. At that level, I would expect much of the US to have sufficient coverage, while some areas with lower prior infections and vaccination coverage may sporadically see smaller outbreaks akin to Michigan's recent resurgence.
US 7-day average case counts began a steep 6 week drop starting on January 12th at 1.5% vaccine coverage (annoyingly, Bloomberg's tracker doesn't distinguish in the time series data between one person/two shots and two people/one shot). Israel topped out around 5 days later with per-capita case rates 20% higher than in the US, at which point, they were at 12% vaccine coverage. By the time Israel had 50% coverage, their cases had already fallen 65% from peak--so it is not correct to say there was no significant drop in cases prior to reaching 50% (also note that immunity builds for weeks after first and second doses, so while the shot is counted on the day administered, the immune effects are 1-4 weeks in the future). Of course, the question of what was driving the case trajectory is not clear given the lower vaccination numbers in the US resulting in similar declines in cases over the same period. I think if we were to look at age-stratified data from Israel, we could see a clearer effect since--like many countries--Israel prioritized the earlier supply for older residents.
WHO changed the guidelines for lab testing and what constitutes a "positive result."
1. The amplification cycles were reduced from 40 to 30 because there were too many "false positives."
2. PCR test by itself is no longer enough for a positive diagnosis. A second test or exhibiting symptoms is required now.
And there was a 30% drop in COVID cases over the span of weeks that experts could not ascribe to seasonality, vaccinations or community immunity.
https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966757161/health-experts-examine-reasons-for-drop-in-covid-19-cases
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9219379/Why-coronavirus-cases-falling-fast-New-infections-drop-44-three-weeks.html
I will quote from the New York Times article (https://archive.md/TuTbB)QuoteOfficials at the Wadsworth Center, New York’s state lab, have access to C.T. values from tests they have processed, and analyzed their numbers at The Times’s request. In July, the lab identified 794 positive tests, based on a threshold of 40 cycles.
With a cutoff of 35, about half of those tests would no longer qualify as positive. About 70 percent would no longer be judged positive if the cycles were limited to 30.
In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said.
Other experts informed of these numbers were stunned.
“I’m really shocked that it could be that high — the proportion of people with high C.T. value results,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “Boy, does it really change the way we need to be thinking about testing.”
So no, I cannot find any data on how many false positives there are. It seems like it needs to be investigated.
But regarding the mysterious drop, I don't agree that there are no alternative explanations. Community immunity effects may have started to play an important role regionally in the US based on prior infection estimates of ~25% infected by early 2021. Some modeling from last year of country-level covid epidemic data suggested a herd immunity threshold much lower (25-40%) than 1-1/R0, which is a figure that would apply in the case of random vaccinations but may not apply in an active epidemic due to heterogenies associated with disease spreaders. Some of those papers were allegedly blacklisted by The ExpertsTM for being anti-alarmist (and now it's risky (https://www.wsj.com/articles/youtube-cancels-the-u-s-senate-11612288061) to mention Ivermectin as an interesting therapeutic on Youtube since the conceit of Silicon Valley is evidently boundless).
Found an interesting paper: Just 2% of SARS-CoV-2−positive individuals carry 90% of the virus circulating in communities (https://www.pnas.org/content/118/21/e2104547118). Answered some basic questions on Ct that I was ignorant of. It seems Ct ~30 is ~10^6 virions per mL. Paper points out that very few people have been found to be infective at that viral load--but it is still so much virus that it is indicative of viral particles associated with a recently cleared infection rather than sample contamination. So I'm thinking the positive results for >30 amplifications are often indications of actual infections--though most of those may have been active in the past.I don't think we are going to have the truth until a few years down the line when we have more data. I would agree right now things aren't adding up.Interesting, didn't know that such a change had occurred and that it might make such a big difference. I'm thinking that should show up in the CFR data though, with CFR increasing after the changed criteria--assuming, of course, that the reduced cutoff for PCR cycles is indeed eliminating false-positives. When I look at trailing 2 week average CFR comparing current deaths to case counts from 3 weeks prior, CFR stays hovering around 1.5% from December through March, after which, it falls to 1% during April-May (vaccination effect?). If the high cycles were really leading to over-counts of the magnitude suggested by the NYT article, CFR would have increased by 2-6x, all other things being equal. On the other hand, if the impact of cycle counts was far more modest (let's say 30%) then that leaves most of the case count drop from the January peak unexplained. So something is still not adding up.As noted in the update, it is a clarification of a December 14th, 2020 order. I am guessing that is was not uniformly adopted if it need a clarification. Which would stretch the change out over a period of time.If that was significant and the US switched over immediately to 30 cycles, then we would have seen a discontinuous drop in cases in January. Instead we saw a long, continuous decline, suggesting that the change in diagnostic criteria (assuming the US actually uniformly adopted it) was not decisive in the case drop. The case positivity rate also suggests a continuous evolution in disease prevalence rather than a change criteria. Also, the case count in the US was already turning over prior to this directive so it is likely the case drop signal starting in January is real rather than an artifact of a change in diagnostic criteria. Is there any data on how many cases between 30 and 40 amplification cycles there were in the US leading to possible false-positives?https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05U.S. vaccination take rate appears to have stalled out just over 40%. Israel didn't see their big drop in cases until 50+% of the population was vaccinated. U.S. may not reach herd immunity for quite some time at the current rate of vaccination.From the vaccination tracking info, it looks like the US asymptote is closer to ~50%. About 30% of the US population is estimated to have been infected to date. If vaccination and infection are independent, immunity would be at 65% assuming everyone vaccinated and/or previously infected is not susceptible. Also note that <16 (~20% of population) are not eligible for vaccination, suffer far less severe outcomes if infected, and due to a more potent innate immunity (unless there is new research I have not encountered) are less likely to spread the virus. At that level, I would expect much of the US to have sufficient coverage, while some areas with lower prior infections and vaccination coverage may sporadically see smaller outbreaks akin to Michigan's recent resurgence.
US 7-day average case counts began a steep 6 week drop starting on January 12th at 1.5% vaccine coverage (annoyingly, Bloomberg's tracker doesn't distinguish in the time series data between one person/two shots and two people/one shot). Israel topped out around 5 days later with per-capita case rates 20% higher than in the US, at which point, they were at 12% vaccine coverage. By the time Israel had 50% coverage, their cases had already fallen 65% from peak--so it is not correct to say there was no significant drop in cases prior to reaching 50% (also note that immunity builds for weeks after first and second doses, so while the shot is counted on the day administered, the immune effects are 1-4 weeks in the future). Of course, the question of what was driving the case trajectory is not clear given the lower vaccination numbers in the US resulting in similar declines in cases over the same period. I think if we were to look at age-stratified data from Israel, we could see a clearer effect since--like many countries--Israel prioritized the earlier supply for older residents.
WHO changed the guidelines for lab testing and what constitutes a "positive result."
1. The amplification cycles were reduced from 40 to 30 because there were too many "false positives."
2. PCR test by itself is no longer enough for a positive diagnosis. A second test or exhibiting symptoms is required now.
And there was a 30% drop in COVID cases over the span of weeks that experts could not ascribe to seasonality, vaccinations or community immunity.
https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966757161/health-experts-examine-reasons-for-drop-in-covid-19-cases
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9219379/Why-coronavirus-cases-falling-fast-New-infections-drop-44-three-weeks.html
I will quote from the New York Times article (https://archive.md/TuTbB)QuoteOfficials at the Wadsworth Center, New York’s state lab, have access to C.T. values from tests they have processed, and analyzed their numbers at The Times’s request. In July, the lab identified 794 positive tests, based on a threshold of 40 cycles.
With a cutoff of 35, about half of those tests would no longer qualify as positive. About 70 percent would no longer be judged positive if the cycles were limited to 30.
In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said.
Other experts informed of these numbers were stunned.
“I’m really shocked that it could be that high — the proportion of people with high C.T. value results,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “Boy, does it really change the way we need to be thinking about testing.”
So no, I cannot find any data on how many false positives there are. It seems like it needs to be investigated.
But regarding the mysterious drop, I don't agree that there are no alternative explanations. Community immunity effects may have started to play an important role regionally in the US based on prior infection estimates of ~25% infected by early 2021. Some modeling from last year of country-level covid epidemic data suggested a herd immunity threshold much lower (25-40%) than 1-1/R0, which is a figure that would apply in the case of random vaccinations but may not apply in an active epidemic due to heterogenies associated with disease spreaders. Some of those papers were allegedly blacklisted by The ExpertsTM for being anti-alarmist (and now it's risky (https://www.wsj.com/articles/youtube-cancels-the-u-s-senate-11612288061) to mention Ivermectin as an interesting therapeutic on Youtube since the conceit of Silicon Valley is evidently boundless).
My conclusion is that there are certainly some surprises in this data. I'm still so surprised the "excess deaths" are half a million and can't be fully attibutable to COVID - makes me think some of the other categories that have highest ever deaths - like heart disease, diabetes, Alzheimers, may have be undiagnosed COVID. Unintentional deaths number is so sad... seeing more drugged out people on the streets everywhere.
* Flu & pneumonia about par with prior years, which is interesting given the widely spread claim that "why isn't there any flu this year?"
I wonder if some of the pneumonia/stroke/heart attack deaths which weren't officially listed as due to covid were complications of covid.
I wonder if some of the pneumonia/stroke/heart attack deaths which weren't officially listed as due to covid were complications of covid.
I'm surprised the mortality rate hasn't dropped more due to high rates of vaccination among highest risk groups.1.7% to 1% is actually a pretty big drop (40%) in CFR. But note that since deaths lag cases, current deaths would be based on infections that occurred weeks to ~1 month ago, at which point the proportion fully vaccinated for age >=65 was ~2/3 (versus ~3/4 now (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographics-trends)). That same age group was ~80% of deaths in 2020, so 2/3 protection (assuming perfect vaccine efficacy) of the group experiencing 80% of deaths would mean we should see a drop in CFR of ~54%. ~1/3 vaccinated in the rest of the population with 20% of the deaths would add another ~6%, resulting in an expected drop of 60% in CFR (1.7% ==> 0.7% -- forgive the back-of-the-envelope math). However, note that the vaccines are not 100% effective, and might be less so among older recipients (though surprisingly, maybe not (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7018e1.htm)?). In 2021, age >=65 is associated with just 55% of total deaths, for comparison.
The following is calculated as the 7day moving average # of deaths divided by the 7day moving average of # of new cases from 18 days ago (that seemed to have the best data fit).
Basically the rate from pre-July was bogus because the number of cases were way understated.
Calculated this way, the mortality rate has dropped from 1.7% in late 2020 to 1.0% in May 2021.
Attached is a graph of the historical mortality rate.
The other confounding factor is that strains circulating currently are more virulent than ones circulating during most of 2020.Good point, I hadn't looked into that recently and recall the hypothesis being floated last yar but now there is more solid evidence of greater lethality of B.1.1.7 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03426-1) (by ~50%!)
The other confounding factor is that strains circulating currently are more virulent than ones circulating during most of 2020.Good point, I hadn't looked into that recently and recall the hypothesis being floated last yar but now there is more solid evidence of greater lethality of B.1.1.7 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03426-1) (by ~50%!)
I remember I made a bet with someone (can't remember who; was it you?) that there wouldn't be more than 1m covid deaths in the US within 18 months.I'm not sure you win if the count is excess deaths, which is probably a better indicator.
To be generous let's say that 18 months starts on 31 March 2020. Unless there are 400k deaths in the next four months I win the bet! I think that calls for a $50 donation from the other poster.
The numbers are still low, but UK was around 2000 cases a day 3 weeks ago and now up to 3300. At 75% vaccinated this is a worrisome trend.
Two different metrics on vaccination, people. 75% of the adult population partly vaccinated, 48.5 of adult population fully vaccinated. 58% of total population partly vaccinated, 38% of total population fully vaccinated. In total, 25 million fully vaccinated and 40 million partly vaccinated. So both of you are right, just talking about different things.The numbers are still low, but UK was around 2000 cases a day 3 weeks ago and now up to 3300. At 75% vaccinated this is a worrisome trend.
75%? Google is showing 38% fully vaccinated and 60% with at least 1 dose in the UK right now. For reference, the US is at 41.2% fully vaccinated and 51% with at least 1 dose.
"Cases" has been a poor metric throughout this pandemic for monitoring community spread. It depends too much on the ability to test, the willingness of the populace to be tested, and the accuracy of those tests. Ultimately, cases only matter if they lead to people getting seriously ill and/or dying.
Two different metrics on vaccination, people. 75% of the adult population partly vaccinated, 48.5 of adult population partly vaccinated. 58% of total population partly vaccinated, 38% of total population partly vaccinated. In total, 25 million fully vaccinated and 40 million partly vaccinated. So both of you are right, just talking about different things.The numbers are still low, but UK was around 2000 cases a day 3 weeks ago and now up to 3300. At 75% vaccinated this is a worrisome trend.
75%? Google is showing 38% fully vaccinated and 60% with at least 1 dose in the UK right now. For reference, the US is at 41.2% fully vaccinated and 51% with at least 1 dose.
"Cases" has been a poor metric throughout this pandemic for monitoring community spread. It depends too much on the ability to test, the willingness of the populace to be tested, and the accuracy of those tests. Ultimately, cases only matter if they lead to people getting seriously ill and/or dying.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
The spread of the Delta (Indian) variant is a worry. For political reasons Boris was far too slow to shut down travel from India when things got bad there. The spread started in areas with lower rates of vaccination (tending to be poor, inner city, ethnic minority populations) but it is now the dominant variant everywhere, which means more easily transmissable than even the Alpha (Kent) variant that caused our second wave, hence the concern now among scientists of a third wave even with relatively high rates of vaccination. "Herd immunity" keeps retreating in the face of these new variants.
Two different metrics on vaccination, people. 75% of the adult population partly vaccinated, 48.5 of adult population partly vaccinated. 58% of total population partly vaccinated, 38% of total population partly vaccinated. In total, 25 million fully vaccinated and 40 million partly vaccinated. So both of you are right, just talking about different things.The numbers are still low, but UK was around 2000 cases a day 3 weeks ago and now up to 3300. At 75% vaccinated this is a worrisome trend.
75%? Google is showing 38% fully vaccinated and 60% with at least 1 dose in the UK right now. For reference, the US is at 41.2% fully vaccinated and 51% with at least 1 dose.
"Cases" has been a poor metric throughout this pandemic for monitoring community spread. It depends too much on the ability to test, the willingness of the populace to be tested, and the accuracy of those tests. Ultimately, cases only matter if they lead to people getting seriously ill and/or dying.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
The spread of the Delta (Indian) variant is a worry. For political reasons Boris was far too slow to shut down travel from India when things got bad there. The spread started in areas with lower rates of vaccination (tending to be poor, inner city, ethnic minority populations) but it is now the dominant variant everywhere, which means more easily transmissable than even the Alpha (Kent) variant that caused our second wave, hence the concern now among scientists of a third wave even with relatively high rates of vaccination. "Herd immunity" keeps retreating in the face of these new variants.
Hmm. That is certainly worrying given that Canada's plan was to hold off on the second dose for a really long time. And matches with what I'm reading here:
"Three weeks after the first dose, both vaccines [AZ and Pfizer] provided only 33% effectiveness against B.1.617.2 and 50% effectiveness against B.1.1.7" - https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210525/pfizer-astrazeneca-vaccines-indian-variant-study (https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210525/pfizer-astrazeneca-vaccines-indian-variant-study)
Is there an article on what went on with the stats in Peru? what a jump... previous underreporting I guess.
Excess deaths figures often take a while to come out but are harder to fudge, so will be an interesting comparison for the future.
Excess deaths figures often take a while to come out but are harder to fudge, so will be an interesting comparison for the future.
Excess deaths models put the global loss of life from the coronavirus at ~10M compared to the official global death toll of ~3.7M. https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/15/there-have-been-7m-13m-excess-deaths-worldwide-during-the-pandemic
Excess deaths figures often take a while to come out but are harder to fudge, so will be an interesting comparison for the future.
Excess deaths models put the global loss of life from the coronavirus at ~10M compared to the official global death toll of ~3.7M. https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/15/there-have-been-7m-13m-excess-deaths-worldwide-during-the-pandemic
Sounds about right, given the expected widespread underreporting all over the world of covid deaths.
The numbers are still low, but UK was around 2000 cases a day 3 weeks ago and now up to 3300. At 75% vaccinated this is a worrisome trend.
UK cases now exceeding their November peak with no signs of slowing down. Will they exceed their all time January peak. The good news is the deaths haven't taken off, but will keep on watching that. They are planning to fully open the country later in July.
Boris feeling popular (including with extreme right Conservative back benchers in Parliament) is the only important metric.UK cases now exceeding their November peak with no signs of slowing down. Will they exceed their all time January peak. The good news is the deaths haven't taken off, but will keep on watching that. They are planning to fully open the country later in July.
Does anyone else find it weird that the UK is fully opening while case numbers are climbing? What's the logic there? Is death the only important metric?
I keep expecting case or death rates to rise, but so far that has not happened in the US. On average 40% of the population in each state has received at least one dose, and that seems to be keeping things under control.
Even the mRNA vaccines may provide only protection against severe disease (and to some extent allows for mild disease or asymptomatic infection) associated with Delta. I live in a US Delta epicenter and a ridiculous number of people are suddenly out due to covid in my department after being back in the office without major incidence for the last 13 months. Vax rates of <40% here, though, and lower infection rates in 2020 than US average, so lots of susceptibles. On the other variants, seemed like there was some media hype to them but Delta is the real deal from an anecdote perspective for me. I just hope that idiot who has coughed 8000 times at the office this year sitting 40 feet from me (yes, I counted) dies from covid.I keep expecting case or death rates to rise, but so far that has not happened in the US. On average 40% of the population in each state has received at least one dose, and that seems to be keeping things under control.
40% vaccinated plus any additional people with some level of natural immunity from prior infection. There are about 180 million Americans over age 18 with at least 1 dose of vaccine. There have been 33 million confirmed cases of COVID, and the number of actual infections may be 100 million or more per CDC estimates. There's some level of overlap between the vaccinated group and those who've been infected but we're still likely talking about 200-250 million people with some level of immunity to this virus. That's as much as 75% of the national population.
The high death rate in Peru is concerning: 80% of cases there are the highly infectious Lambda variant which is only just reaching countries beyond South America
And cases keep going up, up, up in UK. I wouldn't be surprised if the US sees similar experience in the next 2 months. I expect US to hit 200,000 cases a day by September.
And cases keep going up, up, up in UK. I wouldn't be surprised if the US sees similar experience in the next 2 months. I expect US to hit 200,000 cases a day by September.
The UK is at ~55% of their peak daily cases right now. The peak in the U.S. was near ~255k cases/day (depending on which site/source you trust). 55% of that is 140k.
The U.S. has had ~35m confirmed infections and are closing in on 160m fully vaccinated people (~185m have received at least one dose). There's obviously some overlap there, but there were also a bunch of unconfirmed cases.
My point is, even with some "breakthrough" infections, there just aren't enough unvaccinated people to reach 200k cases a day. New England has absolutely crushed vaccinations - to the point that some states have recorded single digit covid deaths since Memorial Day. It's mostly the south - or states that haven't yet reached 50+% fully vaccinated - that are seeing the large increases currently (The U.S., fwiw, has more than doubled the daily rate of cases in the last three weeks).
I wouldn't count it out as a possibility. Although the basic reproduction number is not terribly well-known for the delta variant, there are suggestions as high as 7(!) (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00328-3/fulltext) (I'm too lazy to read an actual paper estimating this to decide if I trust it). But let's take a couple more conservative numbers of R0=4.5 and R0=5 which would be cases where delta was the predominate--but not only--strain in circulation with a delta R0 at the high end of estimates. In that case, the SEIR model I put together in excel without completely knowing what I'm doing is as follows:And cases keep going up, up, up in UK. I wouldn't be surprised if the US sees similar experience in the next 2 months. I expect US to hit 200,000 cases a day by September.
The UK is at ~55% of their peak daily cases right now. The peak in the U.S. was near ~255k cases/day (depending on which site/source you trust). 55% of that is 140k.
The U.S. has had ~35m confirmed infections and are closing in on 160m fully vaccinated people (~185m have received at least one dose). There's obviously some overlap there, but there were also a bunch of unconfirmed cases.
My point is, even with some "breakthrough" infections, there just aren't enough unvaccinated people to reach 200k cases a day. New England has absolutely crushed vaccinations - to the point that some states have recorded single digit covid deaths since Memorial Day. It's mostly the south - or states that haven't yet reached 50+% fully vaccinated - that are seeing the large increases currently (The U.S., fwiw, has more than doubled the daily rate of cases in the last three weeks).
Why do people not want to get vaccinated? This article was very interesting, in a very scary way.
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media (https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media)
Why do people not want to get vaccinated? This article was very interesting, in a very scary way.
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media (https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media)
I'm sure there's a lawsuit coming down the pipes for at least one of these people from someone who believed them and got sick. We can only hope.
Why do people not want to get vaccinated? This article was very interesting, in a very scary way.
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media (https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media)
I'm sure there's a lawsuit coming down the pipes for at least one of these people from someone who believed them and got sick. We can only hope.
Why do people not want to get vaccinated? This article was very interesting, in a very scary way.
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media (https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media)
I'm sure there's a lawsuit coming down the pipes for at least one of these people from someone who believed them and got sick. We can only hope.
Something akin to yelling "fire" in a crowded theatre?
Why do people not want to get vaccinated? This article was very interesting, in a very scary way.
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media (https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media)
I'm sure there's a lawsuit coming down the pipes for at least one of these people from someone who believed them and got sick. We can only hope.
I would be willing to bet, in the US at least, there's a better chance of a company getting sued for mandating the vaccine and an employee having complications from it than from someone taking advice from a Facebook page and suing when they get sick.
Why do people not want to get vaccinated? This article was very interesting, in a very scary way.
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media (https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-health/dozen-misguided-influencers-spread-most-anti-vaccination-content-social-media)
I'm sure there's a lawsuit coming down the pipes for at least one of these people from someone who believed them and got sick. We can only hope.
Something akin to yelling "fire" in a crowded theatre?
Maybe more like yelling "There is no fire!" when there is?
I was thinking more of proclaiming "the vaccines magnetize your blood and give you 5G and will kill your future babies and are more likely to kill you than actual COVID" on public media channels.
I was thinking more of proclaiming "the vaccines magnetize your blood and give you 5G and will kill your future babies and are more likely to kill you than actual COVID" on public media channels.
Problematic.
How is that proclamation any different from the proclamation that you'll burn in a lake of fire if you don't believe in the right God? Both are unproven, believed by many, and compel people to behave foolishly.
A problem with banning lies/liars is that we have institutionalized protection of lies/liars for a long time.
I was thinking more of proclaiming "the vaccines magnetize your blood and give you 5G and will kill your future babies and are more likely to kill you than actual COVID" on public media channels.
Problematic.
How is that proclamation any different from the proclamation that you'll burn in a lake of fire if you don't believe in the right God? Both are unproven, believed by many, and compel people to behave foolishly.
A problem with banning lies/liars is that we have institutionalized protection of lies/liars for a long time.
I think it's pretty easy to prove scientifically that the COVID vaccine doesn't magnetize your blood or cause you to become a 5G hotspot. So far, we're not seeing evidence that the COVID vaccine is causing excess rates of spontaneous abortion or killing recipients in numbers anywhere approaching the actual COVID death tolls.
So no, religious mythology isn't a good comparison.
I was thinking more of proclaiming "the vaccines magnetize your blood and give you 5G and will kill your future babies and are more likely to kill you than actual COVID" on public media channels.
Problematic.
How is that proclamation any different from the proclamation that you'll burn in a lake of fire if you don't believe in the right God? Both are unproven, believed by many, and compel people to behave foolishly.
A problem with banning lies/liars is that we have institutionalized protection of lies/liars for a long time.
I think it's pretty easy to prove scientifically that the COVID vaccine doesn't magnetize your blood or cause you to become a 5G hotspot. So far, we're not seeing evidence that the COVID vaccine is causing excess rates of spontaneous abortion or killing recipients in numbers anywhere approaching the actual COVID death tolls.
So no, religious mythology isn't a good comparison.
You can prove that the covid vaccine doesn't magnetize your blood or cause you to become a 5G hotspot. But it's equally easy to demonstrate that there's no measurable proof that a soul exists - and therefore that the concept of a soul going to torment or paradise in the afterlife is a fiction. Just because they're commonly accepted doesn't make religious falsehoods any more or less valid than other falsehoods. These are matters of faith to the people who believe them.
I get the desire to force people to tell the truth when their lies hurt others. I'm just pointing out that an attempt to do this will contravene first amendment rights regarding religion - as religion is typically not based upon supportable truth.
=You can prove that the covid vaccine doesn't magnetize your blood or cause you to become a 5G hotspot. But it's equally easy to demonstrate that there's no measurable proof that a soul exists - and therefore that the concept of a soul going to torment or paradise in the afterlife is a fiction. Just because they're commonly accepted doesn't make religious falsehoods any more or less valid than other falsehoods. These are matters of faith to the people who believe them.
I get the desire to force people to tell the truth when their lies hurt others. I'm just pointing out that an attempt to do this will contravene first amendment rights regarding religion - as religion is typically not based upon supportable truth.
=You can prove that the covid vaccine doesn't magnetize your blood or cause you to become a 5G hotspot. But it's equally easy to demonstrate that there's no measurable proof that a soul exists - and therefore that the concept of a soul going to torment or paradise in the afterlife is a fiction. Just because they're commonly accepted doesn't make religious falsehoods any more or less valid than other falsehoods. These are matters of faith to the people who believe them.
I get the desire to force people to tell the truth when their lies hurt others. I'm just pointing out that an attempt to do this will contravene first amendment rights regarding religion - as religion is typically not based upon supportable truth.
You are confounding falsifiable assertions with unfalsifiable ones. Let's take religion out of it and consider Russell's Teapot (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell%27s_teapot). It is extremely hard, impossible given present technology, to disprove the existence of a teapot orbiting the sun somewhere between the Earth and Mars. Given this, it seems reasonable to go through life assuming there is not a teapot orbiting the sun somewhere between the Earth and Mars.
However, if I meet two people, one of whom asserts that there is a teapot orbiting the sun somewhere between the Earth and Mars, and the other that there is a teapot on my head, and if I try to put on a hat it won't fit because a teapot in is in the way, I will deal with those two people very differently. Because I cannot disprove the existence of a teapot orbiting the sun somewhere between the Earth and Mars, I just don't think the burden of proof should be on me to do so. Yet I can put on a hat.
You're drawing an imaginary line here.
Magnetic blood is falsifiable though . . . right? You just stick a magnet up against the blood and see that there's no change. Boom, done! Well, then the argument among the faithful simply changes - now the covid vaccine magnetizes the blood in such a way that current technology cannot measure. While any reasonable person would accept the magnet test of the blood, unfortunately 'falsifiability' lies in the imagination of the deluded. A person with faith that there's a teapot on your head would argue that the hat on your head doesn't fit correctly - but you are simply not sensitive enough to feel the problem.
If you meet someone with enough faith you'll quickly find that it's extremely difficult/impossible to disprove anything.
Indeed, that's the whole point that Russell was making with his teapot. A claim to knowledge without evidence to support it is really no better than a lie - it's just presented in smarter looking clothes.
You're drawing an imaginary line here.
Magnetic blood is falsifiable though . . . right? You just stick a magnet up against the blood and see that there's no change. Boom, done! Well, then the argument among the faithful simply changes - now the covid vaccine magnetizes the blood in such a way that current technology cannot measure. While any reasonable person would accept the magnet test of the blood, unfortunately 'falsifiability' lies in the imagination of the deluded. A person with faith that there's a teapot on your head would argue that the hat on your head doesn't fit correctly - but you are simply not sensitive enough to feel the problem.
If you meet someone with enough faith you'll quickly find that it's extremely difficult/impossible to disprove anything.
You're trying to brush over the line between the two by imagining what a hypothetical person might or might not do when confronted with the evidence that their falsifiable belief is false.
A person claiming "the vaccine makes my blood magnetic but to such a small degree no instrument can detect it" is definitely in a Russell's Teapot camp. A person claiming "the vaccine makes my blood magnetic, and I can prove it because metal things stick to my forehead" is not.
Ideas and concepts can be divided into three buckets: 1) Falsifiable, proven false. 2) Falsifiable, not yet proven false. 3) Unfalsifiable. Trying to erase the line between bucket #1 and bucket #3 does a lot more to give people cover to keep believing in ideas from picket #1 than it ever will to convince people to stop believing in ideas from bucket #3.
QuoteIndeed, that's the whole point that Russell was making with his teapot. A claim to knowledge without evidence to support it is really no better than a lie - it's just presented in smarter looking clothes.
No, he's making a point about the burden of proof if one person is trying to convince another of an idea.
And "better than" implies a value judgement I'm not interested in.
A claim that is unfalsifiable (e.g. Russell's Teapot) is qualitatively different from a falsifiable claim which has been falsified (e.g. I have a teapot on my head right now).
The strategies to most effectively deal with a person who believes either of these claims are also qualitatively different.
And "better than" implies a value judgement I'm not interested in.
I used 'better than' because of a perceived value judgement that was indicated earlier - that someone with belief in a falsified assertion should be treated very differently from someone with belief in an unfalsifiable one. Did I misunderstand your comment?
Glad to hear we're mostly in agreement!And "better than" implies a value judgement I'm not interested in.
I used 'better than' because of a perceived value judgement that was indicated earlier - that someone with belief in a falsified assertion should be treated very differently from someone with belief in an unfalsifiable one. Did I misunderstand your comment?
I think perhaps, yes, there is a misunderstanding somewhere.
The way I would prepare a pineapple for eating is qualitatively different from how I would prepare a cassava root. If I use the wrong strategy for the food I am preparing, bad things will happen, ranging from tasting bad, to hurting my mouth, to dying of cyanide poisoning (really).
Does my assertion that pineapple fruit or a cassava root are not the same thing as each other, and we should treat them differently indicate that one is necessarily better than the other?
I'm still curious though, what exactly are the "strategies to most effectively deal with a person who believes either of these claims are also qualitatively different" that do not cast judgement?
I'm still curious though, what exactly are the "strategies to most effectively deal with a person who believes either of these claims are also qualitatively different" that do not cast judgement?
A person who is asserting a belief in an idea which is both falsifiable and has been falsified almost always has come up with a strategy to discount the evidence which falsifies their belief (frequently of the "grand conspiracy" variety, although how big the conspiracy has to been varies: a smaller conspiracy suffices to explain climate change than to explain the earth being flat/round). So any effective approach to such a person starts out by establishing yourself as clearly not part of the conspiracy, usually through appeals to shared cultural beliefs and background, before you can introduce either existing evidence in the context of why you came to hold the opposite belief from them, or propose tests you and the person could actually conduct together (the latter is much more feasible with flat earthers and less so with climate change deniers).
With a person asserting a belief which is unfalsifiable, the first question is what end goal do you wish to accomplish. In the literal case of Russell's Teapot, a person could hold an unfalsifiable belief that doesn't change their actions in any way which would harm themselves or others, so trying to falsify the unfalsifiable to get them to change their beliefs seems like a big waste of time and energy. However, I'll be the first to admit that many other unfalsifiable beliefs DO lead to harm to self or others. In those cases, it's worth examining the chain of logic between the unfalsifiable belief (people have souls, which are entirely intangible and undetectable) and the harmful outcome and seeing which is the weakest link in the chain to go after.
For a hypothetical example:
1) People have souls;
2) Souls imply god;
3) god has ideas on how we should live our lives;
4) these are the specific ideas god has;
5) it's my job to punish/correct other people who violate those ideas.
If my goal is to change the harmful behavior, I'll have much more luck conceding 1&2 and focusing my disagreement at 3, 4, or 5 in the chain than I will trying to get someone who is firmly convinced of #1 to change that belief.
Unless the matter is trivially simple to prove (like flat earth), it still seems that the concept of 'verifiable' comes down to point of view.
Unless the matter is trivially simple to prove (like flat earth), it still seems that the concept of 'verifiable' comes down to point of view.
Definitely a digression, although a fascinating one. Two points though:
-This discussion started with the example of people believing that if they got the coronavirus vaccine, they'd be magnetic and metal objects would stick to them. That's far more trivial to disprove than that the earth is flat.
-Is it your view that the existence of a soul is actually falsifiable (or Russell's Teapot is actually falsifiable for that matter) and some people lack the scientific literacy to understand why? Because if we agree trivially falsifiable things exist, and I think you and I do, and you feel that the distinction between falsifiable and nonfalsifiable is simply a question of point of view, the implication would seem to be that truly nonfalsifiable concepts don't exist.
It seems like many of our conversations ultimately circle back to whether there is an objective reality and objective truths about the world.
One thing I notice you are doing to lumping together prove/disprove. I agree with you that it is possible to ever really PROVE anything in most every day domains, and most scientific domains for that matter. But it is much easier to conclusively disprove things. That's why I'm talking about falsifiable rather than verifiable. Proving is hard/impossible. Disproving is easy. Which is another reason why distinguishing between falsifiable and unfalsifiable statements is so important. Coming up with falsifiable ideas about the world, trying to falsify them, and observing which ones we consistently fail to falsify has let us learn a lot about the realities of the world we live in.
So what is the world COVID-19 situation today?
It seems like many of our conversations ultimately circle back to whether there is an objective reality and objective truths about the world.
One thing I notice you are doing to lumping together prove/disprove. I agree with you that it is possible to ever really PROVE anything in most every day domains, and most scientific domains for that matter. But it is much easier to conclusively disprove things. That's why I'm talking about falsifiable rather than verifiable. Proving is hard/impossible. Disproving is easy. Which is another reason why distinguishing between falsifiable and unfalsifiable statements is so important. Coming up with falsifiable ideas about the world, trying to falsify them, and observing which ones we consistently fail to falsify has let us learn a lot about the realities of the world we live in.
Black swans.
Basically science acknowledges that nothing can be 100% proven*. But false things can be disproven. That is why hypotheses are tested by seeing if their predictions hold true or not, and if not, how far off are they.
Evidence, it is all evidence. Continents don't drift (sorry Wegener) but plates do (Wegener had the basis right, the mechanism wrong).
*This drives non-scientists crazy, because they want certainty. Or they see discussions about alternate hypotheses and mechanisms as evidence that the whole theory is wrong (yes I am thinking evolution, it is a theory where all this gets really twisted).
It seems like many of our conversations ultimately circle back to whether there is an objective reality and objective truths about the world.
One thing I notice you are doing to lumping together prove/disprove. I agree with you that it is possible to ever really PROVE anything in most every day domains, and most scientific domains for that matter. But it is much easier to conclusively disprove things. That's why I'm talking about falsifiable rather than verifiable. Proving is hard/impossible. Disproving is easy. Which is another reason why distinguishing between falsifiable and unfalsifiable statements is so important. Coming up with falsifiable ideas about the world, trying to falsify them, and observing which ones we consistently fail to falsify has let us learn a lot about the realities of the world we live in.
Black swans.
Basically science acknowledges that nothing can be 100% proven*. But false things can be disproven. That is why hypotheses are tested by seeing if their predictions hold true or not, and if not, how far off are they.
Evidence, it is all evidence. Continents don't drift (sorry Wegener) but plates do (Wegener had the basis right, the mechanism wrong).
*This drives non-scientists crazy, because they want certainty. Or they see discussions about alternate hypotheses and mechanisms as evidence that the whole theory is wrong (yes I am thinking evolution, it is a theory where all this gets really twisted).
Snort. I had this type of conversation with a friend who believes all sorts of strange things and she commented that "you don't believe anything!" when I argued against all of her beliefs because they couldn't be proven. I said that I do hold lots of beliefs, but provisionally, until evidence comes along to make me change my mind. She just couldn't comprehend this, because in her mind, things are either true or false.
It seems like many of our conversations ultimately circle back to whether there is an objective reality and objective truths about the world.
One thing I notice you are doing to lumping together prove/disprove. I agree with you that it is possible to ever really PROVE anything in most every day domains, and most scientific domains for that matter. But it is much easier to conclusively disprove things. That's why I'm talking about falsifiable rather than verifiable. Proving is hard/impossible. Disproving is easy. Which is another reason why distinguishing between falsifiable and unfalsifiable statements is so important. Coming up with falsifiable ideas about the world, trying to falsify them, and observing which ones we consistently fail to falsify has let us learn a lot about the realities of the world we live in.
Black swans.
Basically science acknowledges that nothing can be 100% proven*. But false things can be disproven. That is why hypotheses are tested by seeing if their predictions hold true or not, and if not, how far off are they.
Evidence, it is all evidence. Continents don't drift (sorry Wegener) but plates do (Wegener had the basis right, the mechanism wrong).
*This drives non-scientists crazy, because they want certainty. Or they see discussions about alternate hypotheses and mechanisms as evidence that the whole theory is wrong (yes I am thinking evolution, it is a theory where all this gets really twisted).
It seems like many of our conversations ultimately circle back to whether there is an objective reality and objective truths about the world.
One thing I notice you are doing to lumping together prove/disprove.
I agree with you that it is [editor's note missed the "not originally] not possible to ever really PROVE anything in most every day domains, and most scientific domains for that matter. But it is much easier to conclusively disprove things. That's why I'm talking about falsifiable rather than verifiable. Proving is hard/impossible.
Disproving is easy. Which is another reason why distinguishing between falsifiable and unfalsifiable statements is so important. Coming up with falsifiable ideas about the world, trying to falsify them, and observing which ones we consistently fail to falsify has let us learn a lot about the realities of the world we live in.
So, what is the global COVID-19 situation?
Seems like numbers are ramping up here and elsewhere. In Australia, NSW just reported their biggest daily spike in case numbers in 16 months (despite the Sydney lockdown).
AZ says 82% efficacy so the the numbers just don't make sense.
So, what is the global COVID-19 situation?India death estimate revised upwards ~10 fold to 3-4.5 million, or something like that. Probably around 1 billion Indian infections to date, which would explain why delta has burned out despite low vax rates. That's pretty notable, I guess.
Seems like numbers are ramping up here and elsewhere. In Australia, NSW just reported their biggest daily spike in case numbers in 16 months (despite the Sydney lockdown).
Why is there a huge difference in hospitalization amongst the vaccinated in the US vs. UK? The only thing I can think is the Astra Zenica shot is highly ineffective? How is it that UK is more vaccinated but still experiencing a huge hospitalization % from people who are vaccinated? It seems the Delta variant is dominant both in UK and USA.I doubt the difference in effectiveness is that high, but who knows? My current hypothesis is the NHS is much more fact-based than CDC which has taken to making misleading quantitative declarations. I spent 20 minutes on the CDC site just now looking for what I thought was very simple information: number of hospital admissions over a week period segmented by vaccination status. If it exists, it is not simple to find. The best I found was a massive data download but I gave up at 2.2GB downloaded. Maybe the details I am looking for would be buried in there but I'm not wading through whatever mess that is.
source for vaccination rates below, stats as of 7-20-21: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
USA percent of people fully vaccinated: 48.4% partially: 7.4% total:55.8%
USA percent of COVID hospitalizations that are fully vaccinated: 3%
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/19/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
UK percent of people fully vaccinated: 53.6% partially: 14.7% total:68.3%
UK percent of COVID hospitalizations that are fully vaccinated: 40% (Note: one of the authorities inaccurately said this was 60% a couple days ago, but corrected to 40%)
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/60-people-being-admitted-uk-hospitals-had-two-covid-jabs-adviser-2021-07-19/
Delta, now in at least 132 countries and already the dominant form of the disease in the United States, is more transmissible than the common cold, the 1918 Spanish flu, smallpox, Ebola, and MERS and SARS, two diseases also caused by coronaviruses, according to the document. Only measles appears to spread faster than the variant.
—————
While the delta variant continues to hit unvaccinated people the hardest, some vaccinated people could be carrying higher levels of the virus than previously understood and are potentially transmitting it to others, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday. She added the variant behaves “uniquely differently from past strains of the virus.”
Covid19 Weekly Update -US Edition
This pandemic was DONE in the USA. Now it is back. Delta Variant is more infectious (as much as chicken pox?) and more dangerous then previous variants. Recent data suggests that vaccinated folks can still transmit the virus to unvaccinated folks. In my household, the adults are vaccinated, but the children are not old enough to be vaccinated, which means we have personally decided to hunker down again.
99.2% of recent Covid deaths are amongst the unvaccinated. 97.5% of hospitalizations are amongst the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated are the primary carriers of this modern day plague.
Why is Covid19 back? Because the idiots chose not to vaccinate because of ....reasons. I'm not sure if I should blame the gullible idiots who bought into the right wing misinformation propaganda, or whether I should blame the malevolent idiots who create and disseminate the propaganda for political power, money, or notoriety. Either way, EVERYONE suffers for it in the form of illness, death, or forced isolation. Don't even get me started on masks in schools and the potential for another remote year of education.
Future updates will be USA focused, with a few tidbits from the world here and there to change things up. I'll try to remember to update on Fridays.
Covid19 Weekly Update -US Edition
This pandemic was DONE in the USA. Now it is back. Delta Variant is more infectious (as much as chicken pox?) and more dangerous then previous variants. Recent data suggests that vaccinated folks can still transmit the virus to unvaccinated folks. In my household, the adults are vaccinated, but the children are not old enough to be vaccinated, which means we have personally decided to hunker down again.
99.2% of recent Covid deaths are amongst the unvaccinated. 97.5% of hospitalizations are amongst the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated are the primary carriers of this modern day plague.
Why is Covid19 back? Because the idiots chose not to vaccinate because of ....reasons. I'm not sure if I should blame the gullible idiots who bought into the right wing misinformation propaganda, or whether I should blame the malevolent idiots who create and disseminate the propaganda for political power, money, or notoriety. Either way, EVERYONE suffers for it in the form of illness, death, or forced isolation. Don't even get me started on masks in schools and the potential for another remote year of education.
Future updates will be USA focused, with a few tidbits from the world here and there to change things up. I'll try to remember to update on Fridays.
In Dallas County, COVID hospitalizations have increased by 99% over the past two weeks, reaching 376 earlier this week. The local numbers are expected to hit between 800 and 1,000 by mid-August, according to forecasters at UT-Southwestern Medical Center.
Overall on Thursday, Texas hospitals reported 5,662 patients hospitalized with COVID. A week earlier, COVID hospitalizations were 3,566. On July 1, it was 1,591.
This didn't have to happen. We had ample amount of vaccines in the US to get to herd immunity, and avoid this. Many other countries did not have that luxury. So yeah I blamed the anti vaxxers on this. At the VA we had a debriefing and they think that the Delta variant is closer to a R 8 (while the original was R 2.5). So it is expected that both unvaccinated AND vaccinated people are going to catch it, unless masking, distancing, etc are consistently done.
I am bummed. I signed up back to the Y. I really want to exercise. I might go and see if I can exercise with a mask on.
Worldwide Update:
Top 5 Covid19 Deaths (Total)
1. USA 628500
2. Brazil 554600
3. India 423400
4. Mexico 240000
5. Peru 196000
At the VA we had a debriefing and they think that the Delta variant is closer to a R 8 (while the original was R 2.5). So it is expected that both unvaccinated AND vaccinated people are going to catch it, unless masking, distancing, etc are consistently done.
At the VA we had a debriefing and they think that the Delta variant is closer to a R 8 (while the original was R 2.5). So it is expected that both unvaccinated AND vaccinated people are going to catch it, unless masking, distancing, etc are consistently done.
Would you mind explaining what the first sentence means to a layperson? Thanks in advance!
At the VA we had a debriefing and they think that the Delta variant is closer to a R 8 (while the original was R 2.5). So it is expected that both unvaccinated AND vaccinated people are going to catch it, unless masking, distancing, etc are consistently done.
Would you mind explaining what the first sentence means to a layperson? Thanks in advance!
It just means that if one person gets it, they're likely to infect +/- 8 other people, whereas with the old variant an infected person would infect just +/- 2.5 other people. So delta is a ton more infectious.
Well, looks like the USA 7 day average will go above 100,000 today... on the way to 200,000? Or more?Comparing across countries might be problematic since the level of testing differs:
I'm still perplexed by the mortality rates between the US and UK. Seems like the mortality in the UK is clearly going down, but seems to be going up in USA post vaccine.
Looking at the "peaks" and "valleys" since Dec 2020:
Calculation method for peak mortality = highest rolling 7 day # of deaths/highest rolling 7 day # of cases, for given peak
Calculation method for valley mortality = lowest rolling 7 day # of deaths/lowest rolling 7 day # of cases, for given valley
Mortality for UK:
January Peak: 2.1%
May Valley: 0.3% <--- clearly looks like mortality is going down
July Peak: 0.2%
Mortality for USA:
January Peak: 1.4%
June Valley: 2.0%
August or September Peak: ?? But early indications are that death rate is much higher than UK
Well, looks like the USA 7 day average will go above 100,000 today... on the way to 200,000? Or more?Comparing across countries might be problematic since the level of testing differs:
I'm still perplexed by the mortality rates between the US and UK. Seems like the mortality in the UK is clearly going down, but seems to be going up in USA post vaccine.
Looking at the "peaks" and "valleys" since Dec 2020:
Calculation method for peak mortality = highest rolling 7 day # of deaths/highest rolling 7 day # of cases, for given peak
Calculation method for valley mortality = lowest rolling 7 day # of deaths/lowest rolling 7 day # of cases, for given valley
Mortality for UK:
January Peak: 2.1%
May Valley: 0.3% <--- clearly looks like mortality is going down
July Peak: 0.2%
Mortality for USA:
January Peak: 1.4%
June Valley: 2.0%
August or September Peak: ?? But early indications are that death rate is much higher than UK
UK (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing)
US (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states)
The US is doing ~1M tests per day, while the UK (with 1/5th population) is at 750K. The UK is likely detecting more mild/asymptomatic cases as part of the more intensive & widespread testing. In the US, testing demand seems to be match more closely with clinical disease prevalence, hence the more stable CFR.
Cases in US still tracking with a model that would peak at >200K/day but looking at the state level, we can start to see some of the earliest states impacted by delta possibly peaking already. With the recently increased vax rates and the high postiivity rate suggesting more infections per case than expected, the susceptible population is falling faster than in my model, suggesting the peak is going to be lower and a bit sooner than indicated below (playing with the parameters, I get a peak of 165K cases/day on 8/25 for the seven day trailing average).
Maybe. One thing I can tell for sure is that without reading 1000 papers (or maybe even having read that many) that it is impossible to collapse the parameter space of possibilities down far enough to have a stable & confident prediction. There are so many things that can swing the results madly: R0 of delta, previously infected population, reinfection probability, vax breakthrough probability, probability that an infected person tests positive (case to infection ratio), policy changes with changing circumstances (e.g. public health policy changes), changes in behavior due to changes in circumstances (e.g. the uptick in US vaccinations with delta & other voluntary behavioral changes). Many of these are non-linear effects and can dominate a model. Mask effectiveness and use is just one element that is beyond the scope of being resolved by armchair idiots like myself.Well, looks like the USA 7 day average will go above 100,000 today... on the way to 200,000? Or more?Comparing across countries might be problematic since the level of testing differs:
I'm still perplexed by the mortality rates between the US and UK. Seems like the mortality in the UK is clearly going down, but seems to be going up in USA post vaccine.
Looking at the "peaks" and "valleys" since Dec 2020:
Calculation method for peak mortality = highest rolling 7 day # of deaths/highest rolling 7 day # of cases, for given peak
Calculation method for valley mortality = lowest rolling 7 day # of deaths/lowest rolling 7 day # of cases, for given valley
Mortality for UK:
January Peak: 2.1%
May Valley: 0.3% <--- clearly looks like mortality is going down
July Peak: 0.2%
Mortality for USA:
January Peak: 1.4%
June Valley: 2.0%
August or September Peak: ?? But early indications are that death rate is much higher than UK
UK (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing)
US (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states)
The US is doing ~1M tests per day, while the UK (with 1/5th population) is at 750K. The UK is likely detecting more mild/asymptomatic cases as part of the more intensive & widespread testing. In the US, testing demand seems to be match more closely with clinical disease prevalence, hence the more stable CFR.
Cases in US still tracking with a model that would peak at >200K/day but looking at the state level, we can start to see some of the earliest states impacted by delta possibly peaking already. With the recently increased vax rates and the high postiivity rate suggesting more infections per case than expected, the susceptible population is falling faster than in my model, suggesting the peak is going to be lower and a bit sooner than indicated below (playing with the parameters, I get a peak of 165K cases/day on 8/25 for the seven day trailing average).
It's also possible that masking tendencies are playing some role. While there is an anti-vaxx/anti-mask contingent in the UK, my understanding is that it was far smaller than in the US.
Saw this personal account on FacebookA precis for those of us who don't do Facebook?
https://www.facebook.com/kkay412/posts/10220474891958197 (https://www.facebook.com/kkay412/posts/10220474891958197)
A precis for those of us who don't do Facebook?A very sad, first-person, account from someone that was seemingly healthy but got very sick by COVID. She included 10-12 pictures from her worst days in the hospital with captions. Almost NSFW, and just a bit hard to look at. Basically, she appears mostly unconscious as tubes and machines do nearly all of her bodily functions, with many of the accompanying problems, dialysis, sores, clots, swelling, etc. She did not die, and is slowly on the mend now, with plenty of recovery still (see below).
I’m still not back to myself but I’m on way fewer machines than I was before. I have had to relearn even the most basic of functions. I am constantly aware of my breathing and lived by the mantra “Breathe in through your nose and blow out the candles.” Imagine how irritating that would be when you couldn’t breathe. How scary if you already suffer from anxiety as I do. You can’t see my ECMO or trach scars here, but they are a permanent reminder of why I do what I do both personally and professionally to protect myself, my family and my community
Thanks. There have bee too many sad stories of people who thought themselves physically invulnerable only to discover otherwise.A precis for those of us who don't do Facebook?A very sad, first-person, account from someone that was seemingly healthy but got very sick by COVID. She included 10-12 pictures from her worst days in the hospital with captions. Almost NSFW, and just a bit hard to look at. Basically, she appears mostly unconscious as tubes and machines do nearly all of her bodily functions, with many of the accompanying problems, dialysis, sores, clots, swelling, etc. She did not die, and is slowly on the mend now, with plenty of recovery still (see below).Quote from: Her Last Picure on FacebookI’m still not back to myself but I’m on way fewer machines than I was before. I have had to relearn even the most basic of functions. I am constantly aware of my breathing and lived by the mantra “Breathe in through your nose and blow out the candles.” Imagine how irritating that would be when you couldn’t breathe. How scary if you already suffer from anxiety as I do. You can’t see my ECMO or trach scars here, but they are a permanent reminder of why I do what I do both personally and professionally to protect myself, my family and my community
YIKES. She's been hospitalized for 8 months now, it sounds like?? She looks young.
So in Abbott logic, it makes more sense to overwhelm medical systems, push an expensive, non-fully FDA-approved antibody therapy and order mortuary trucks than to allow municipalities and school districts to set their own masking and vaccination mandates (but big government is bad).
Texas requests five mortuary trailers in anticipation of Covid deaths (NBC News) (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/texas-requests-five-mortuary-trailers-anticipation-covid-deaths-n1276924)
So in Abbott logic, it makes more sense to overwhelm medical systems, push an expensive, non-fully FDA-approved antibody therapy and order mortuary trucks than to allow municipalities and school districts to set their own masking and vaccination mandates (but big government is bad).
Texas requests five mortuary trailers in anticipation of Covid deaths (NBC News) (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/texas-requests-five-mortuary-trailers-anticipation-covid-deaths-n1276924)
That’s the plan! Yee-ha!
But you forgot that he’ll somehow blame Biden for the fallout.
And what's with him getting Regeneron's monoclonal antibody treatment when he's "fully vaccinated and has no symptoms"? Save it for someone who needs it.
So in Abbott logic, it makes more sense to overwhelm medical systems, push an expensive, non-fully FDA-approved antibody therapy and order mortuary trucks than to allow municipalities and school districts to set their own masking and vaccination mandates (but big government is bad).
Texas requests five mortuary trailers in anticipation of Covid deaths (NBC News) (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/texas-requests-five-mortuary-trailers-anticipation-covid-deaths-n1276924)
So in Abbott logic, it makes more sense to overwhelm medical systems, push an expensive, non-fully FDA-approved antibody therapy and order mortuary trucks than to allow municipalities and school districts to set their own masking and vaccination mandates (but big government is bad).
Texas requests five mortuary trailers in anticipation of Covid deaths (NBC News) (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/texas-requests-five-mortuary-trailers-anticipation-covid-deaths-n1276924)
The overwhelmed hospitals and mortuary trailers are due to lack of vaccination from those eligible, not the presence or lack of mask mandates in schools.
Covid19 Weekly Update -US Edition
This pandemic was DONE in the USA. Now it is back. Delta Variant is more infectious (as much as chicken pox?) and more dangerous then previous variants. Recent data suggests that vaccinated folks can still transmit the virus to unvaccinated folks. In my household, the adults are vaccinated, but the children are not old enough to be vaccinated, which means we have personally decided to hunker down again.
99.2% of recent Covid deaths are amongst the unvaccinated. 97.5% of hospitalizations are amongst the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated are the primary carriers of this modern day plague.
Why is Covid19 back? Because the idiots chose not to vaccinate because of ....reasons. I'm not sure if I should blame the gullible idiots who bought into the right wing misinformation propaganda, or whether I should blame the malevolent idiots who create and disseminate the propaganda for political power, money, or notoriety. Either way, EVERYONE suffers for it in the form of illness, death, or forced isolation. Don't even get me started on masks in schools and the potential for another remote year of education.
Future updates will be USA focused, with a few tidbits from the world here and there to change things up. I'll try to remember to update on Fridays.
Covid19 Weekly Update -US Edition:
Currently Hospitalized 38573. Note that previous peak in January 2021 was 130K hospitalizations or so.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
Top 10 US States for Daily Cases, Daily Deaths
1.Florida 17589, 55
2.Texas 11893, 39
3.California 9314, 43
4.Georgia 4612, 11
5.Louisiana 4414, 20
6.N.Carolina 3268, 12
7.Missouri 2982, N/A
8.Arkansas 2843, 11
9.Tennessee 2586, 8
10.New York 2412, 10
Total US 92485 New Cases on 7/29/21, 398 New Deaths
*Per Capita Covid Case leaders (aka Hot Spots) -> Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Seems like the upward curve in the USA isn't as steep as that in the UK, Florida is seeming to plateau. Fingers crossed this is the start of a plateau and decline in cases.
Little kids are good vectors. They may not get all that sick themselves, but those of us who have been through those years remember getting sick with whatever the kid brought home from school/daycare.
Little kids are good vectors. They may not get all that sick themselves, but those of us who have been through those years remember getting sick with whatever the kid brought home from school/daycare.
That’s for sure. Just this week our kids brought something home (not COVID, according to the test results). I’m coughing and hacking and congested. It’s a little nerve-wracking in the middle of a respiratory virus pandemic.
Seems like the upward curve in the USA isn't as steep as that in the UK, Florida is seeming to plateau. Fingers crossed this is the start of a plateau and decline in cases.
Maybe. I hope so, especially as schools here in Michigan haven't started up yet.
Little kids are good vectors. They may not get all that sick themselves, but those of us who have been through those years remember getting sick with whatever the kid brought home from school/daycare.
That’s for sure. Just this week our kids brought something home (not COVID, according to the test results). I’m coughing and hacking and congested. It’s a little nerve-wracking in the middle of a respiratory virus pandemic.
It’s worldwide, and they’re extremely puzzled by it. Unfortunately, a lot of kids are getting both at the same time.Little kids are good vectors. They may not get all that sick themselves, but those of us who have been through those years remember getting sick with whatever the kid brought home from school/daycare.
That’s for sure. Just this week our kids brought something home (not COVID, according to the test results). I’m coughing and hacking and congested. It’s a little nerve-wracking in the middle of a respiratory virus pandemic.
Huge nationwide outbreak of RSV. My kid's daycare was hit by it, too.
Seems like the upward curve in the USA isn't as steep as that in the UK, Florida is seeming to plateau. Fingers crossed this is the start of a plateau and decline in cases.
That very much appears to be the case for FL and the other low-vax/early-Delta states. Now the best-fit scenario has a peak in just 4 days at ~150K cases/day (down from a projected peak of 165K on 8/25 in the prior model iteration). As pointed out (and given the high positivity rates) some of the undershoot in my otherwise infallible model was due to under-testing.Seems like the upward curve in the USA isn't as steep as that in the UK, Florida is seeming to plateau. Fingers crossed this is the start of a plateau and decline in cases.
Maybe. I hope so, especially as schools here in Michigan haven't started up yet.
Case positivity rate is 19.3% in Florida and does indeed appear to be slowly plateauing over time. Between the total % vaccinated and the % already infected/recovered, hopefully Florida runs out of kindling soon, and the rates begin to drop. All indications are that there will be no additional mitigation strategy beyond, "lets let the virus do what viruses do".
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf
So in Abbott logic, it makes more sense to overwhelm medical systems, push an expensive, non-fully FDA-approved antibody therapy and order mortuary trucks than to allow municipalities and school districts to set their own masking and vaccination mandates (but big government is bad).
Texas requests five mortuary trailers in anticipation of Covid deaths (NBC News) (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/texas-requests-five-mortuary-trailers-anticipation-covid-deaths-n1276924)
The overwhelmed hospitals and mortuary trailers are due to lack of vaccination from those eligible, not the presence or lack of mask mandates in schools.
Younger kids aren't eligible for the vaccine and several cities in Texas have overwhelmed children's hospitals.
That very much appears to be the case for FL and the other low-vax/early-Delta states. Now the best-fit scenario has a peak in just 4 days at ~150K cases/day (down from a projected peak of 165K on 8/25 in the prior model iteration). As pointed out (and given the high positivity rates) some of the undershoot in my otherwise infallible model was due to under-testing.Seems like the upward curve in the USA isn't as steep as that in the UK, Florida is seeming to plateau. Fingers crossed this is the start of a plateau and decline in cases.
Maybe. I hope so, especially as schools here in Michigan haven't started up yet.
Case positivity rate is 19.3% in Florida and does indeed appear to be slowly plateauing over time. Between the total % vaccinated and the % already infected/recovered, hopefully Florida runs out of kindling soon, and the rates begin to drop. All indications are that there will be no additional mitigation strategy beyond, "lets let the virus do what viruses do".
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf
That very much appears to be the case for FL and the other low-vax/early-Delta states. Now the best-fit scenario has a peak in just 4 days at ~150K cases/day (down from a projected peak of 165K on 8/25 in the prior model iteration). As pointed out (and given the high positivity rates) some of the undershoot in my otherwise infallible model was due to under-testing.Seems like the upward curve in the USA isn't as steep as that in the UK, Florida is seeming to plateau. Fingers crossed this is the start of a plateau and decline in cases.
Maybe. I hope so, especially as schools here in Michigan haven't started up yet.
Case positivity rate is 19.3% in Florida and does indeed appear to be slowly plateauing over time. Between the total % vaccinated and the % already infected/recovered, hopefully Florida runs out of kindling soon, and the rates begin to drop. All indications are that there will be no additional mitigation strategy beyond, "lets let the virus do what viruses do".
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf
Florida's vaccination rate is almost identical to the national rate...a little higher on the "at least one dose" measure, a little lower on the fully vaccinated measure.
I like making fun of Florida as much as the next guy but that's what the rates are according to Google's Our World in Data.
I'm just pondering a statement I saw posted somewhere that questioned whether the U.S. would have ever gotten rid of polio if the population in the 1950s had responded like this.
Seems like everyone back then was more obedient and accepting of medical and governmental authority, so they just lined up and got vaccinated.
I agree that never questioning authority is not a good thing, but neither do we have polio in the U.S.
I'm just pondering a statement I saw posted somewhere that questioned whether the U.S. would have ever gotten rid of polio if the population in the 1950s had responded like this.
Seems like everyone back then was more obedient and accepting of medical and governmental authority, so they just lined up and got vaccinated.
I agree that never questioning authority is not a good thing, but neither do we have polio in the U.S.
They had also seen the devastation of these diseases first-hand. Those who don't "know" history (as in, those who either haven't lived it, don't understand it, or have little ability to empathize/put themselves in the place of what it would have been like) are condemned to drag the rest of us down with them.
I'm just pondering a statement I saw posted somewhere that questioned whether the U.S. would have ever gotten rid of polio if the population in the 1950s had responded like this.
Seems like everyone back then was more obedient and accepting of medical and governmental authority, so they just lined up and got vaccinated.
I agree that never questioning authority is not a good thing, but neither do we have polio in the U.S.
They had also seen the devastation of these diseases first-hand. Those who don't "know" history (as in, those who either haven't lived it, don't understand it, or have little ability to empathize/put themselves in the place of what it would have been like) are condemned to drag the rest of us down with them.
I'm just pondering a statement I saw posted somewhere that questioned whether the U.S. would have ever gotten rid of polio if the population in the 1950s had responded like this.
Seems like everyone back then was more obedient and accepting of medical and governmental authority, so they just lined up and got vaccinated.
I agree that never questioning authority is not a good thing, but neither do we have polio in the U.S.
They had also seen the devastation of these diseases first-hand. Those who don't "know" history (as in, those who either haven't lived it, don't understand it, or have little ability to empathize/put themselves in the place of what it would have been like) are condemned to drag the rest of us down with them.
I don't disagree with the sentiment, but the reality of nurses not wanting to get vaccinated here in Texas calls that in to question - https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/23/texas-hospital-houston-methodist-vaccine-employees-fired-resign/
You would think, being on the front lines of exposure as well as seeing the worst of this first hand, there would be an insignificant number of medically unable or conscientious objectors...
I'm just pondering a statement I saw posted somewhere that questioned whether the U.S. would have ever gotten rid of polio if the population in the 1950s had responded like this.
Seems like everyone back then was more obedient and accepting of medical and governmental authority, so they just lined up and got vaccinated.
I agree that never questioning authority is not a good thing, but neither do we have polio in the U.S.
They had also seen the devastation of these diseases first-hand. Those who don't "know" history (as in, those who either haven't lived it, don't understand it, or have little ability to empathize/put themselves in the place of what it would have been like) are condemned to drag the rest of us down with them.
I don't disagree with the sentiment, but the reality of nurses not wanting to get vaccinated here in Texas calls that in to question - https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/23/texas-hospital-houston-methodist-vaccine-employees-fired-resign/
You would think, being on the front lines of exposure as well as seeing the worst of this first hand, there would be an insignificant number of medically unable or conscientious objectors...
Yes, you would think so, but there is such a huge juggernaut of a misinformation campaign out there now that, as the old saying goes, a lie can travel around the world before the truth puts on its pants. So many forces and so much money being spent actively working to brainwash people that it's inevitable even some of those who should know better will succumb.
I don't disagree with the sentiment, but the reality of nurses not wanting to get vaccinated here in Texas calls that in to question - https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/23/texas-hospital-houston-methodist-vaccine-employees-fired-resign/
You would think, being on the front lines of exposure as well as seeing the worst of this first hand, there would be an insignificant number of medically unable or conscientious objectors...
[...] Jennifer Bridges, a former nurse who alleged the policy was unlawful and forced staffers to be “guinea pigs” for vaccines that had not gone through the full Food and Drug Administration approval process.
I don't disagree with the sentiment, but the reality of nurses not wanting to get vaccinated here in Texas calls that in to question - https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/23/texas-hospital-houston-methodist-vaccine-employees-fired-resign/
You would think, being on the front lines of exposure as well as seeing the worst of this first hand, there would be an insignificant number of medically unable or conscientious objectors...
150 employees out of 25,000 seems pretty insignificant. It's unclear if they were all front-line workers, too. Some could've been back office staff who don't walk the crowded hallways.Quote[...] Jennifer Bridges, a former nurse who alleged the policy was unlawful and forced staffers to be “guinea pigs” for vaccines that had not gone through the full Food and Drug Administration approval process.
I'm certain that, if/when the vaccines are approved, most of the "It hasn't been approved!" people will find another reason to refuse.
Yes, you would think so, but there is such a huge juggernaut of a misinformation campaign out there now that, as the old saying goes, a lie can travel around the world before the truth puts on its pants. So many forces and so much money being spent actively working to brainwash people that it's inevitable even some of those who should know better will succumb.
So much for not overloading health care systems: Many Hospitals With No Beds Left Are Forced To Send COVID Patients To Cities Far Away (NPR) (https://www.npr.org/2021/08/19/1029378744/hospital-beds-shortage-covid-coronavirus-states?utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0mMg21DacCHk6aT6y4KFyI1Ba06F7m9nizFQ5yeRdSAdTzp9Wf28yJyMI)
Number of US children hospitalized with COVID-19 hits record; Dallas out of pediatric ICU beds (Becker’s Hospital Review) (https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/number-of-us-children-hospitalized-with-covid-19-hits-record-dallas-out-of-pediatric-icu-beds.html)
But, freeeeeedom. Amirite?!
So much for not overloading health care systems: Many Hospitals With No Beds Left Are Forced To Send COVID Patients To Cities Far Away (NPR) (https://www.npr.org/2021/08/19/1029378744/hospital-beds-shortage-covid-coronavirus-states?utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0mMg21DacCHk6aT6y4KFyI1Ba06F7m9nizFQ5yeRdSAdTzp9Wf28yJyMI)
Number of US children hospitalized with COVID-19 hits record; Dallas out of pediatric ICU beds (Becker’s Hospital Review) (https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/number-of-us-children-hospitalized-with-covid-19-hits-record-dallas-out-of-pediatric-icu-beds.html)
But, freeeeeedom. Amirite?!
It's OK. People have been telling me that kids don't get sick from covid, so there's nothing to worry about.
And what's with him getting Regeneron's monoclonal antibody treatment when he's "fully vaccinated and has no symptoms"? Save it for someone who needs it.
Right? So much for the "stop fearmongering, it's just a mild cold" crowd. He's such a hypocrite.
I don’t understand how a mask mandate is different than an underpants mandate in terms of freedom and child abuse. Any legal scholars want to give a swing at that?
I don’t understand how a mask mandate is different than an underpants mandate in terms of freedom and child abuse. Any legal scholars want to give a swing at that?
One of the approaches I've heard some Texas schools are (were?) trying to putting masks into their existing dress codes rather than as a separate rule since I guess in that state there is precedent that high schools can enforce dress codes.
Though I don't remember underwear being part of high school dress codes back when I attended, and even if it were, trying to gather data to enforce it would seem to open all sorts of other unpleasant possibilities for abuse of the system.
Many governors were vaccinated very early: by February 22, 18 governors (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-22/u-s-governors-leading-vaccine-effort-go-mostly-unvaccinated) had been vaccinated (9 Democrats & 9 Republicans). Here (https://coloradosun.com/2021/01/30/jared-polis-recieves-coronavirus-vaccine/) is the situation in Colorado, where Polis (almost 20 years younger than Abbott) was made eligible for vaccination, along with 200 others, for the purpose of governmental continuity. This seems highly reasonable.And what's with him getting Regeneron's monoclonal antibody treatment when he's "fully vaccinated and has no symptoms"? Save it for someone who needs it.
Right? So much for the "stop fearmongering, it's just a mild cold" crowd. He's such a hypocrite.
News sources state he (Greg Abbott, Texas governor) was vaccinated in December. That places him in the first two weeks of vaccine administration. Back when it was supposed to be front line workers and nursing homes. Despicable human being.
In western South Dakota’s Meade County, more than one in three COVID-19 tests are currently returning positive, and over the last three weeks, seven-day average case counts have increased by 3,400 percent. This exponential growth in cases is likely attributable to the 81st Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which drew an estimated half a million visitors to Meade County and its environs from Aug. 6 through 15, potentially acting as a superspreader event.
-------
The state more broadly has witnessed a 686.8 percent increase in daily case counts over the past three weeks, currently more than 10 times the nationwide rate. Meade County’s post-Sturgis uptick is certainly a contributor to this state-level increase, but neighboring counties have experienced a sharp incline in cases, too—ranging from a 1,900 percent increase in the past three weeks in Butte to a 1,050 percent increase in Lawrence.
Saw this today:
“In case anyone is curious…
“Right now in the USA, every ten days, more than 8,000 (unvaccinated) Republican voters are dying of COVID-19. That’s 5X the rate for Democrats.”
- Neil DeGrasse Tyson
We confirmed the source, so I conclude it’s true. People’s political beliefs are literally killing them.
Saw this today:
“In case anyone is curious…
“Right now in the USA, every ten days, more than 8,000 (unvaccinated) Republican voters are dying of COVID-19. That’s 5X the rate for Democrats.”
- Neil DeGrasse Tyson
We confirmed the source, so I conclude it’s true. People’s political beliefs are literally killing them.
Saw this today:
“In case anyone is curious…
“Right now in the USA, every ten days, more than 8,000 (unvaccinated) Republican voters are dying of COVID-19. That’s 5X the rate for Democrats.”
- Neil DeGrasse Tyson
We confirmed the source, so I conclude it’s true. People’s political beliefs are literally killing them.
Has he provided his source yet for that stat though?
Cases in the U.S. *appear* to have crested around ~165k/day. Deaths have spiked - 1,500/day and rising. Some estimates show another 100k could die of covid by December in the U.S. alone.
Cases in the U.S. *appear* to have crested around ~165k/day. Deaths have spiked - 1,500/day and rising. Some estimates show another 100k could die of covid by December in the U.S. alone.
I'm not so sure they've crested. TX is overtaking FL in #1 of cases, lots of states still with increasing numbers. Looking at UK and Israel, wear off of vaccinations is real... both places are slowly increasing (Israel is setting new records in # of cases, and UK staying at a high relative number of new cases).
Cases in the U.S. *appear* to have crested around ~165k/day. Deaths have spiked - 1,500/day and rising. Some estimates show another 100k could die of covid by December in the U.S. alone.
I'm not so sure they've crested. TX is overtaking FL in #1 of cases, lots of states still with increasing numbers. Looking at UK and Israel, wear off of vaccinations is real... both places are slowly increasing (Israel is setting new records in # of cases, and UK staying at a high relative number of new cases).
A rural Oklahoma doctor said patients who are taking the horse de-wormer medication, ivermectin, to fight COVID-19 are causing emergency room and ambulance back ups.
“There’s a reason you have to have a doctor to get a prescription for this stuff, because it can be dangerous,” said Dr. Jason McElyea.
Dr. McElyea said patients are packing his eastern and southeastern Oklahoma hospitals after taking ivermectin doses meant for a full-sized horse, because they believed false claims the horse de-wormer could fight COVID-19.
“The ERs are so backed up that gunshot victims were having hard times getting to facilities where they can get definitive care and be treated,” he said.
There are only 24 greek letters and mu is already the 12th. I hope someone is thinking about what we do once we hit 24 named variants.
There are only 24 greek letters and mu is already the 12th. I hope someone is thinking about what we do once we hit 24 named variants.
There are only 24 greek letters and mu is already the 12th. I hope someone is thinking about what we do once we hit 24 named variants.
WHO has already mentioned using the names of constellations. I can only hope they're planning to use the original names and not the English versions since that would sound both unserious and confusing. "I have some bad news. Grandma has The Little Bear and the doctor says it's probably going to kill her."
Interesting (in a bad way) stats from CDC: 23% of all deaths last month in the 40-49 age group were covid-related. (Compared to pandemic average of 10%). That’s a similar rate to the 70+ age group (who are more likely to be vaccinated).
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge
Actually looking at monthly deaths, a big contributor the large jump in the percent of all 40-49 year old deaths explained by coronavirus in the last month was a drop in total deaths for that age bracket (7,000 some instead of 10,000+). That works out to only ~5,500 non-coronavirus related deaths in August vs ~10,000 in every other month. Not sure if that represents reporting lag with many more August deaths left to be added to the August totals or if these are finalized numbers for the month already and something about this August resulted in many fewer deaths from other causes than from other months this summer or last summer.
The absolute death numbers from coronavirus are already plenty big. August '21 was 4th highest number of coronavirus deaths month for 40-49 year olds since the pandemic started. (I couldn't get April of 2020 in the screenshot with August of 2021 which is the 3rd month along with Dec '20 and Jan '21 where more total 40-49 year olds died from the coronavirus).
(https://imgpile.com/images/Np7bcP.png) (https://imgpile.com/i/Np7bcP)
Good point in the all causes discrepancy. Even assuming the total deaths stays around 10k, already we’d be at 17% from coronavirus - point being as you mentioned, it is a significant cause of mortality. I think in a normal society if there’s a 17% mortality from one single easy-to-prevent thing, the population as a whole would do that thing that prevents it.
Actually looking at monthly deaths, a big contributor the large jump in the percent of all 40-49 year old deaths explained by coronavirus in the last month was a drop in total deaths for that age bracket (7,000 some instead of 10,000+). That works out to only ~5,500 non-coronavirus related deaths in August vs ~10,000 in every other month. Not sure if that represents reporting lag with many more August deaths left to be added to the August totals or if these are finalized numbers for the month already and something about this August resulted in many fewer deaths from other causes than from other months this summer or last summer.
The absolute death numbers from coronavirus are already plenty big. August '21 was 4th highest number of coronavirus deaths month for 40-49 year olds since the pandemic started. (I couldn't get April of 2020 in the screenshot with August of 2021 which is the 3rd month along with Dec '20 and Jan '21 where more total 40-49 year olds died from the coronavirus).
(https://imgpile.com/images/Np7bcP.png) (https://imgpile.com/i/Np7bcP)
Does that mean avoid it using medieval strategies and superstitions? If so, we've got it licked.Good point in the all causes discrepancy. Even assuming the total deaths stays around 10k, already we’d be at 17% from coronavirus - point being as you mentioned, it is a significant cause of mortality. I think in a normal society if there’s a 17% mortality from one single easy-to-prevent thing, the population as a whole would do that thing that prevents it.
One would have thought so. One thing I've learned over the last 18 months is that the phrase "avoid it like the plague" is meaningless in modern US society.
Does that mean avoid it using medieval strategies and superstitions? If so, we've got it licked.Good point in the all causes discrepancy. Even assuming the total deaths stays around 10k, already we’d be at 17% from coronavirus - point being as you mentioned, it is a significant cause of mortality. I think in a normal society if there’s a 17% mortality from one single easy-to-prevent thing, the population as a whole would do that thing that prevents it.
One would have thought so. One thing I've learned over the last 18 months is that the phrase "avoid it like the plague" is meaningless in modern US society.
This may be a little early, but it looks like the southeast is cresting the current wave and some states are on the early part of a down-slope finally. It is spreading north-wards through the Midwest, though.
This may be a little early, but it looks like the southeast is cresting the current wave and some states are on the early part of a down-slope finally. It is spreading north-wards through the Midwest, though.
If the report from Israel regarding immunity after contraction and recovery from Covid is accurate, it's possible that between the number of vaccinations and high number of those who have contracted and recovered (or died for that matter) from Covid in the southeast, we may be seeing the very beginnings of some sort of herd immunity.
Btw, the U.S. share of worldwide reported covid deaths has dipped below 15% (~14.6%).
~1 in every 500 Americans has died of covid.
Btw, the U.S. share of worldwide reported covid deaths has dipped below 15% (~14.6%).
~1 in every 500 Americans has died of covid.
Yikes.
(Because I know that the numbers are important: Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) states 674,795 total US COVID deaths as of 5 minutes ago. The Census.gov Population Clock (https://www.census.gov/popclock/) estimates a US population of 332,730,964. [Total US covid deaths/US population]*100 = 0.2%.)
Btw, the U.S. share of worldwide reported covid deaths has dipped below 15% (~14.6%).
~1 in every 500 Americans has died of covid.
Yikes.
(Because I know that the numbers are important: Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) states 674,795 total US COVID deaths as of 5 minutes ago. The Census.gov Population Clock (https://www.census.gov/popclock/) estimates a US population of 332,730,964. [Total US covid deaths/US population]*100 = 0.2%.)
Which makes sense considering 1/500 = 0.2% :)
It's never lupus.
Actually looking at monthly deaths, a big contributor the large jump in the percent of all 40-49 year old deaths explained by coronavirus in the last month was a drop in total deaths for that age bracket (7,000 some instead of 10,000+). That works out to only ~5,500 non-coronavirus related deaths in August vs ~10,000 in every other month. Not sure if that represents reporting lag with many more August deaths left to be added to the August totals or if these are finalized numbers for the month already and something about this August resulted in many fewer deaths from other causes than from other months this summer or last summer.
The absolute death numbers from coronavirus are already plenty big. August '21 was 4th highest number of coronavirus deaths month for 40-49 year olds since the pandemic started. (I couldn't get April of 2020 in the screenshot with August of 2021 which is the 3rd month along with Dec '20 and Jan '21 where more total 40-49 year olds died from the coronavirus).
(https://imgpile.com/images/Np7bcP.png) (https://imgpile.com/i/Np7bcP)
"Deaths from all causes" is now up to 9,825 for August 2021 for that age group.
I guess at this point some areas have true herd immunity? I know Texas put no effort into slowing covid this time around but cases are dropping! Yee *wheeze* haw!
I guess at this point some areas have true herd immunity? I know Texas put no effort into slowing covid this time around but cases are dropping! Yee *wheeze* haw!
It's still not known if herd immunity will be enough to stamp out covid. There are new variants, reports of re-infections, etc. We still don't know.
It could simply become endemic like the flu, with multiple strains or variants.
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/2021
1. Peru [5551] +3490 ***absolutely huge official statistic change in Peru. They are now easily the most afflicted by Covid19.
2. Hungary [3094] +14 *still decelerating
3. Czechia [2810] +5
4. Bulgaria [2579] +23
5. Slovakia [2267] +9
6. Brazil [2196] +61 *still rather elevated while the rest of the world drops
7. Belgium [2148] +38
8. Italy [2094] +9
9. Croatia [1976] +18
10. Poland [1960] +15
11. UK [1874] +1
12. USA [1839] +12
13. Colombia [1758] +70
14. Mexico [1754] +33
15. Argentina [1752] *back on list after long hiatus. Appears to be another South America boom.
50+ India [247] + 15 *decelerating now (if you believe the numbers). Another 22000 deaths in India in the last week.
*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/10/2021
1. Peru [5804]
2. Hungary [3114]
3. Czechia [2827]
4. Bulgaria [2631]
5. Brazil [2484]
6. Slovakia [2292]
7. Colombia [2172]
8. Belgium [2165]
9. Argentina [2152]
10. Italy [2116]
11. Croatia [2017]
12. Poland [1988]
13. Paraguay [1912]
14. UK [1881]
15. USA [1870]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/2021
1. Peru [5939]
2. Hungary [3131]
3. Bulgaria [2959]
4. Czechia [2837] -no movement at all last couple months. strange
5. Brazil [2766]
6. Argentina [2511]
7. Colombia [2445]
8. Slovakia [2305]
9. Paraguay [2229]
10. Georgia [2198]
11. Belgium [2192]
12. Italy [2164]
13. USA [2111]
14. Croatia [2103]
15. Mexico [2099]
*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/2021
1. Peru [5551] +3490 ***absolutely huge official statistic change in Peru. They are now easily the most afflicted by Covid19.
2. Hungary [3094] +14 *still decelerating
3. Czechia [2810] +5
4. Bulgaria [2579] +23
5. Slovakia [2267] +9
6. Brazil [2196] +61 *still rather elevated while the rest of the world drops
7. Belgium [2148] +38
8. Italy [2094] +9
9. Croatia [1976] +18
10. Poland [1960] +15
11. UK [1874] +1
12. USA [1839] +12
13. Colombia [1758] +70
14. Mexico [1754] +33
15. Argentina [1752] *back on list after long hiatus. Appears to be another South America boom.
50+ India [247] + 15 *decelerating now (if you believe the numbers). Another 22000 deaths in India in the last week.
*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/10/2021
1. Peru [5804]
2. Hungary [3114]
3. Czechia [2827]
4. Bulgaria [2631]
5. Brazil [2484]
6. Slovakia [2292]
7. Colombia [2172]
8. Belgium [2165]
9. Argentina [2152]
10. Italy [2116]
11. Croatia [2017]
12. Poland [1988]
13. Paraguay [1912]
14. UK [1881]
15. USA [1870]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/2021
1. Peru [5939]
2. Hungary [3131]
3. Bulgaria [2959]
4. Czechia [2837] -no movement at all last couple months. strange
5. Brazil [2766]
6. Argentina [2511]
7. Colombia [2445]
8. Slovakia [2305]
9. Paraguay [2229]
10. Georgia [2198]
11. Belgium [2192]
12. Italy [2164]
13. USA [2111]
14. Croatia [2103]
15. Mexico [2099]
*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/11/2021
1. Peru [5969]
2. Bulgaria [3745]
3. Hungary [3298]
4. Czechia [2914]
5. Brazil [2843]
6. Romania [2739]
7. Georgia [2699]
8. Argentina [2539]
9. Colombia [2473]
10. Slovakia [2454]
11. Croatia [2388]
12. USA [2339]
13. Belgium [2253]
14. Paraguay [2244]
15. Mexico [2220]
Bulgaria and Romania are in their worst surges of the entire pandemic right now.
UK just had the highest number of cases in a single day. Their 7-day average of cases likely to exceed their all time high from last January. However, their # of deaths is staying low.
Carefully watching the deaths in South Africa, they also have the highest number of cases since the start of the pandemic, but not noticing any increase in deaths. That being said, we're only about 3 weeks from the start of the exponential rise from Omicron. Next 2 weeks should tell.
UK just had the highest number of cases in a single day. Their 7-day average of cases likely to exceed their all time high from last January. However, their # of deaths is staying low.
Carefully watching the deaths in South Africa, they also have the highest number of cases since the start of the pandemic, but not noticing any increase in deaths. That being said, we're only about 3 weeks from the start of the exponential rise from Omicron. Next 2 weeks should tell.
The big variable will be the interaction of Delta + Omicron + Flu@Abe my flu shot concern is always...I get mine in August. I sometimes wonder if I get it too early, and maybe it's better to wait until Oct/Nov.
The last H3N2 flu season resulted in ~50k excess deaths without two strains of a pandemic circulating around, and without several million additional people with chronic lung damage. I guess we will find out how things go...
Get your flu shots if you haven't yet!!! As expected, vaccination rates for the flu are lower this year compared to last. Sigh.
The big variable will be the interaction of Delta + Omicron + Flu@Abe my flu shot concern is always...I get mine in August. I sometimes wonder if I get it too early, and maybe it's better to wait until Oct/Nov.
The last H3N2 flu season resulted in ~50k excess deaths without two strains of a pandemic circulating around, and without several million additional people with chronic lung damage. I guess we will find out how things go...
Get your flu shots if you haven't yet!!! As expected, vaccination rates for the flu are lower this year compared to last. Sigh.
Yeah, we don't seem to be experiencing an uptick in either hospitalizations or deaths here. At least not yet...
Will be interesting to watch UAE.Does anyone believe those vaccination percentages? They would have to have no kids there, for a start, they've been giving out that percentage long before any vaccine was approved for kids. Also highly likely it's only UAE citizens that have been vaccinated and that there are large numbers of unvaccinated "guest workers".
According to this, they are 99% with 1+ vax, and 93% "fully vaccinated": https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html
They've gone from about 70 cases a day in November, to now averaging over 1200 and on the rise, presumedly omicron.
The same link at the moment shows the UAE at 101% at least one dose, so I suspect the issue is that the denominator they're using is off (e.g. they are counting vaccinations given people who don't show up as part of their overall population).
There is no indication currently that this is less severe than delta in our population.
Up 400%!!! They love using percent increases when the starting number is a low number because it's great click bait. So the total number hospitalized kids that have COVID went from 18 to 73 (not new hospitalizations, total hospitialized).
Edit: I'm not stating that Omicron is totally benign, I do think hospitalizations and deaths will increase as cases increase, it's just that the media makes more money the more we watch and click, and we are now more than a month into omicron in South Africa and London and it hasn't been nearly as bad as prior waves. According to the video, the average hospital stay is 3 days, which is less than prior waves. The media likes us to think all the hospitalizations last months and nearly everyone is ventilated.
We'll get a lot of weekly data released tomorrow which will tell us about who is getting sick and how sick (NYC does some data dumps on Thursdays and some of it is delayed by a week or two). Includes breakdowns by age and vax status, and variant sequencing. Should be very informative.
I don't think you can conclude all of those things from this information. Vaccinated infections may be happening quite a bit at a subclincial level in severity, creating a bias in testing demand massively in favor of the unvaccinated who are more likely to experience characteristic symptoms and seek out a test.We'll get a lot of weekly data released tomorrow which will tell us about who is getting sick and how sick (NYC does some data dumps on Thursdays and some of it is delayed by a week or two). Includes breakdowns by age and vax status, and variant sequencing. Should be very informative.
Just looked through the Thursday data dump... couple of things that stood out to me. First was that the 0-4 age group in particular had a sharp uptick in hospitalizations last week and now has a higher rate than any other age group below 55. Not great.
Also the breakdown by vaccination status is out for the first week with major Omicron impact, and it really surprised me. I thought there would be a big bump in vaccinated cases since the vast majority of New Yorkers are vaccinated (but mostly not boosted) and everyone is getting breakthrough cases. This is the week that we went from about 25% to 70% Omicron, so maybe averaged 50/50 with Delta. I'll attach the graph - it's almost all unvaxed still. So much for the "vaccinated people are spreading it just as much" line the anti-vaxxers love so much. (Purple is unvaxed, orange is vaxed.)
I don't think you can conclude all of those things from this information. Vaccinated infections may be happening quite a bit at a subclincial level in severity, creating a bias in testing demand massively in favor of the unvaccinated who are more likely to experience characteristic symptoms and seek out a test.We'll get a lot of weekly data released tomorrow which will tell us about who is getting sick and how sick (NYC does some data dumps on Thursdays and some of it is delayed by a week or two). Includes breakdowns by age and vax status, and variant sequencing. Should be very informative.
Just looked through the Thursday data dump... couple of things that stood out to me. First was that the 0-4 age group in particular had a sharp uptick in hospitalizations last week and now has a higher rate than any other age group below 55. Not great.
Also the breakdown by vaccination status is out for the first week with major Omicron impact, and it really surprised me. I thought there would be a big bump in vaccinated cases since the vast majority of New Yorkers are vaccinated (but mostly not boosted) and everyone is getting breakthrough cases. This is the week that we went from about 25% to 70% Omicron, so maybe averaged 50/50 with Delta. I'll attach the graph - it's almost all unvaxed still. So much for the "vaccinated people are spreading it just as much" line the anti-vaxxers love so much. (Purple is unvaxed, orange is vaxed.)
If the US had a proper random surveillance testing program, we would have a clearer idea of the prevalence statistics, but of course, 2 years is not enough time to sort something like that out. And for the % omicron stats, are your percentages based on the CDC now-cast estimate? I guess it takes a week or two to collect and collate the variant data, so we don't really know current variant prevalence beyond a noisy CDC estimate based on aged data and an assumption-heavy model (2 years is evidently not enough time to streamline the genetic sequencing program).
Much more widespread prevalence would also partially explain the 0-4 hospitalization signal, since that age is not vaccinated (though it's true omicron may also be inherently more dangerous for those ages). Just the sheer number of concurrent infections, though, could give rise to current observations.
My early back-of-the-envelope calculation using early December information had US infections peaking at ~10M per day in the first half of January. Using a 1:3 case to infection ratio, that would imply ~3.3M cases per day at peak, though two factors--testing supply constraints and lower disease severity--will shift this ratio to smaller detection rates. In any case, if prevalence is extremely high already, at least it means we are near the peak.
And for the % omicron stats, are your percentages based on the CDC now-cast estimate?
Yes, the CDC does that but publishes a weekly nowcast that attempts to give current-state estimates but does not give stable results (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20211229/cdc-reduces-estimate-omicron-us) in a quickly changing environment because of limitation on reporting timeliness. Genomic surveillance appears to be much better in other countries, e.g. UK and Denmark. American Exceptionalism at work here.And for the % omicron stats, are your percentages based on the CDC now-cast estimate?
No, it's from the NYC sequencing. They sequence a percentage of all positive tests.
The 0-4 hospitalizations are rising more sharply than other ages - which to me is notable since kids were having such incredibly low severity before. 5-12 is only 25% fully vaxed, so they shouldn't be hugely different, but the hospitalization rates are just over a third of the 0-4 group. To me it seems like something's going on there. Am I a doctor or epidemiologist, no. Am I making conclusions, no. Just an observation. If I had a kid that age I'd be watching them more closely if they got sick. The hospitalization data is a week newer than the variant sequencing, so it's probably all Omicron doing that.
In terms of vaccinated people having subclinical COVID... it's anecdotal but I know a ton of vaxed people getting tested if they have the slightest off feeling - my mom took two home tests this week because she felt sniffly one day and queasy another day. It's NYC, people are both neurotic and very much want to tamp down COVID. We have 90%+ of adults partially or fully vaxed and there are lines down the block at every testing clinic. There's no way it's mostly unvaccinated people getting tested.
My main point is it's hard to draw strong, specific conclusions on most data (US in particular) because of all of the confounding factors.
Ah, right, NYC. I forgot you people thought you were the entire US, hence my confusion ;)My main point is it's hard to draw strong, specific conclusions on most data (US in particular) because of all of the confounding factors.
I don't think I ever tried to do that :-)
The NYC sequencing is about 10 days in the past, not a "nowcast" or a guesstimate. It's data, as I presented it. As I said, it was for the first week where Omicron really started surging. Not this week.
I just realized that the screenshot from my phone earlier didn't capture the numbers for some reason - the unvaccinated cases are 5829/100k, the vaccinated cases are 212/100k. It's an extreme difference and I have a hard time believing that it is due purely to lack of testing the vaccinated. You can look at all the data here if you want, it's a real treasure trove. Just pay attention to the different dates because some is released daily and some is weekly and the weeks don't always line up (some is delayed and some is not). https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#daily
Ah, right, NYC. I forgot you people thought you were the entire US, hence my confusion ;)
Where are you possibly getting 25-30:1 -- that can't be right!
I'm confused because of the bar chart (not the line chart) on the same source that I posted previously suggesting a much smaller disparity that is in line with reporting from other countries.Ah, right, NYC. I forgot you people thought you were the entire US, hence my confusion ;)
(eyeroll) Oh, you're one of those people. OK. Har har. *insert condescending joke about flyover country* Happy now?
I never said anything about extrapolating data about what's happening in NYC to the entire country or world. I'm observing people's behavior here, within city limits, and observing the data that's being collected here, within city limits, and trying to figure out what it might mean.QuoteWhere are you possibly getting 25-30:1 -- that can't be right!
From the website I just linked you to? The numbers are on the chart. As of 12/18 the cases per 100k for unvaxed are, like I said, 5829, and the cases per 100k for vaxed are, like I said, 212. It is shocking. But that is what the chart says. I don't know why you're making it like I'm making this up or "suggesting" it. Take it up with the New York health department if you think it's a lie. Or am I hallucinating or something? What are you even confused about here?
I'm confused because of the bar chart (not the line chart) on the same source that I posted previously suggesting a much smaller disparity that is in line with reporting from other countries.
Here's a video of Fauci himself talking about the juvenile hospitalizations. Is this video new? I've been unable to find this video online other than tweets by people/groups such as Ted Cruz, but the article is dated 5 hours ago so I'm assuming the video is new?I would not assume that it is new. They say he was speaking to mnbc yet I cannot find any current mnbc coverage of this.
https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-children-hospital-covid-omicron-1664676
I’ve found out this week about 10 Covid cases in people I know. One died. The unvaccinated case was the death. The vaccinated cases have so far all involved mild symptoms and recovery at home. Yes, it’s anecdotal, but it’s my reality. Based on the contacts of the positive cases, I’m expecting 6 to 10 more positive tests in their family members in the next week.
we share dogs, so they could have transmitted?
It seems if we have a similar pattern to South Africa, this surge will pass by the end of January. The deaths will lag and take a while to happen, but hopefully by March we'll be over with COVID for a few months.
Here in Ontario we're seeing close to double the number of infections as at our previous peak when we were starting to overload the health care system. The numbers just kept going up and up, so our government decided to radically reduce testing. That way the numbers don't go up as much - it's a perfect solution!
Here in Ontario we're seeing close to double the number of infections as at our previous peak when we were starting to overload the health care system. The numbers just kept going up and up, so our government decided to radically reduce testing. That way the numbers don't go up as much - it's a perfect solution!
I live in Ontario, too, and I think your statement above misrepresents the government's decision and how they are portraying it. They've made it clear that they reduced testing because they don't have capacity to test everyone who is symptomatic. (That's another problem and there are, perhaps, valid reasons for complaining about the lack of testing capacity.) They have also made it clear that because they're aren't testing everyone who wants a PCR test, the reported test results represent an underestimate of the true number of infections. Here's a statement from Public Health Ontario today with respect to the reported results (as reported by CityPulse 24):
"However, Public Health Ontario says the case count is an underestimate of the true number of infections as a large swath of Ontario’s population is no longer eligible for free PCR testing."
Watching how Omicron has gotten into the US and flourished like this with the Biden admin in charge and even with a functional vaccine makes me realize how I was foolish to think the OG variant should have been somehow been stopped.
Watching how Omicron has gotten into the US and flourished like this with the Biden admin in charge and even with a functional vaccine makes me realize how I was foolish to think the OG variant should have been somehow been stopped.
Watching how Omicron has gotten into the US and flourished like this with the Biden admin in charge and even with a functional vaccine makes me realize how I was foolish to think the OG variant should have been somehow been stopped.
This comment makes me wonder... if anyone other than Trump was President when this pandemic started, would the anti-vax movement have gone mainstream? Would COVID-denial early on have been popular? Could anyone else have single-handedly caused such a successful disinformation campaign to get some teeth?
I was at a conference with a bunch of business leaders from our region. Near universal vaccination among the attendees, and yet broad opposition to vaccine mandates. They were vaccinated, they supported their employees being vaccinated, they were philosophically opposed to requiring people to be vaccinated. There were different feelings from many about requiring medical staff to be vaccinated.
I share all this to point out that there are many Republicans who are pro-vaccine, but anti-mandate. The problem is that loudly proclaiming that sounds like mixed messaging:
1. Everyone must get vaccinated!
2. I’m vaccinated. Everyone should get vaccinated. But I’m opposed to requiring vaccinations.
3. Vaccines are the spawn of the devil!!!
Two of those are clear and concise positions. #2 requires you to hold what appear to be conflicting thoughts in your head at the same time, and frankly, many people can’t do that.
I was at a conference with a bunch of business leaders from our region. Near universal vaccination among the attendees, and yet broad opposition to vaccine mandates. They were vaccinated, they supported their employees being vaccinated, they were philosophically opposed to requiring people to be vaccinated. There were different feelings from many about requiring medical staff to be vaccinated.
I share all this to point out that there are many Republicans who are pro-vaccine, but anti-mandate. The problem is that loudly proclaiming that sounds like mixed messaging:
1. Everyone must get vaccinated!
2. I’m vaccinated. Everyone should get vaccinated. But I’m opposed to requiring vaccinations.
3. Vaccines are the spawn of the devil!!!
Two of those are clear and concise positions. #2 requires you to hold what appear to be conflicting thoughts in your head at the same time, and frankly, many people can’t do that.
Let's simply restate #2 as, I believe vaccines work and getting one is a personal choice. Now you're no longer in two camps and instead, making what seems to be a widely held position.
I was at a conference with a bunch of business leaders from our region. Near universal vaccination among the attendees, and yet broad opposition to vaccine mandates. They were vaccinated, they supported their employees being vaccinated, they were philosophically opposed to requiring people to be vaccinated. There were different feelings from many about requiring medical staff to be vaccinated.
I share all this to point out that there are many Republicans who are pro-vaccine, but anti-mandate. The problem is that loudly proclaiming that sounds like mixed messaging:
1. Everyone must get vaccinated!
2. I’m vaccinated. Everyone should get vaccinated. But I’m opposed to requiring vaccinations.
3. Vaccines are the spawn of the devil!!!
Two of those are clear and concise positions. #2 requires you to hold what appear to be conflicting thoughts in your head at the same time, and frankly, many people can’t do that.
Let's simply restate #2 as, I believe vaccines work and getting one is a personal choice. Now you're no longer in two camps and instead, making what seems to be a widely held position.
#2 is essentially the "My body, my choice" position of the Right. I don't see how anybody that fights for wider access to birth control or autonomy with one's own reproductive rights can argue that vaccines should be mandated. Employers and/or governments shouldn't have say in what people can/cannot do with their bodies. And alternatively, I don't see how somebody that doesn't want to be required to get a vaccine might want to control what others do with their body/reproductive rights. They're both arguing for the same basic thing, but only viewing it through a partisan, politicized lens.
Watching how Omicron has gotten into the US and flourished like this with the Biden admin in charge and even with a functional vaccine makes me realize how I was foolish to think the OG variant should have been somehow been stopped.
I was at a conference with a bunch of business leaders from our region. Near universal vaccination among the attendees, and yet broad opposition to vaccine mandates. They were vaccinated, they supported their employees being vaccinated, they were philosophically opposed to requiring people to be vaccinated. There were different feelings from many about requiring medical staff to be vaccinated.
I share all this to point out that there are many Republicans who are pro-vaccine, but anti-mandate. The problem is that loudly proclaiming that sounds like mixed messaging:
1. Everyone must get vaccinated!
2. I’m vaccinated. Everyone should get vaccinated. But I’m opposed to requiring vaccinations.
3. Vaccines are the spawn of the devil!!!
Two of those are clear and concise positions. #2 requires you to hold what appear to be conflicting thoughts in your head at the same time, and frankly, many people can’t do that.
Let's simply restate #2 as, I believe vaccines work and getting one is a personal choice. Now you're no longer in two camps and instead, making what seems to be a widely held position.
#2 is essentially the "My body, my choice" position of the Right. I don't see how anybody that fights for wider access to birth control or autonomy with one's own reproductive rights can argue that vaccines should be mandated. Employers and/or governments shouldn't have say in what people can/cannot do with their bodies. And alternatively, I don't see how somebody that doesn't want to be required to get a vaccine might want to control what others do with their body/reproductive rights. They're both arguing for the same basic thing, but only viewing it through a partisan, politicized lens.
When an employees body directly impacts the employer, it is common to control employees bodies. Look at dress codes and drug tests. Generally, US case law has determined that medical procedures can't be mandated by employees - unless it can be demonstrated that there is a sufficiently serious health issue and that the requirement will meaningfully assist with reducing such a risk for people at work. I think the argument can be made that vaccines fall into this category too.
Abortions do not impact employers (might even be a net benefit as there's no maternity leave) or other employees so aren't really very similar when you consider them beyond the facile level.
Pregnancy isn't contagious; covid is. You can't endanger another employee by coming to work after having had an abortion.
Pregnancy isn't contagious; covid is. You can't endanger another employee by coming to work after having had an abortion.
I'd bet that an anti-abortion advocate would argue that abortion is 100% lethal, while covid is less than 2% lethal. Either bodily autonomy is valued or it's not. Both sides of the aisle seem to have inconsistencies on the subject to me.
I'm sorry for making the comparison. I don't want to sidetrack the discussion into reproductive rights debates. I just wanted to point out what I see as inconsistent views by people on both sides here.
I was at a conference with a bunch of business leaders from our region. Near universal vaccination among the attendees, and yet broad opposition to vaccine mandates. They were vaccinated, they supported their employees being vaccinated, they were philosophically opposed to requiring people to be vaccinated. There were different feelings from many about requiring medical staff to be vaccinated.
I share all this to point out that there are many Republicans who are pro-vaccine, but anti-mandate. The problem is that loudly proclaiming that sounds like mixed messaging:
1. Everyone must get vaccinated!
2. I’m vaccinated. Everyone should get vaccinated. But I’m opposed to requiring vaccinations.
3. Vaccines are the spawn of the devil!!!
Two of those are clear and concise positions. #2 requires you to hold what appear to be conflicting thoughts in your head at the same time, and frankly, many people can’t do that.
Let's simply restate #2 as, I believe vaccines work and getting one is a personal choice. Now you're no longer in two camps and instead, making what seems to be a widely held position.
#2 is essentially the "My body, my choice" position of the Right. I don't see how anybody that fights for wider access to birth control or autonomy with one's own reproductive rights can argue that vaccines should be mandated. Employers and/or governments shouldn't have say in what people can/cannot do with their bodies. And alternatively, I don't see how somebody that doesn't want to be required to get a vaccine might want to control what others do with their body/reproductive rights. They're both arguing for the same basic thing, but only viewing it through a partisan, politicized lens.
When an employees body directly impacts the employer, it is common to control employees bodies. Look at dress codes and drug tests. Generally, US case law has determined that medical procedures can't be mandated by employees - unless it can be demonstrated that there is a sufficiently serious health issue and that the requirement will meaningfully assist with reducing such a risk for people at work. I think the argument can be made that vaccines fall into this category too.
Abortions do not impact employers (might even be a net benefit as there's no maternity leave) or other employees so aren't really very similar when you consider them beyond the facile level.
I was referring more to individual values than legal precedent. It seems inconsistent to me to support bodily autonomy on one subject and oppose it on another. Regardless of the topic at hand or which side of the arguments you land on.
We mandate vaccines in the military to ensure we have appropriate military "readiness". Same argument.
I was at a conference with a bunch of business leaders from our region. Near universal vaccination among the attendees, and yet broad opposition to vaccine mandates. They were vaccinated, they supported their employees being vaccinated, they were philosophically opposed to requiring people to be vaccinated. There were different feelings from many about requiring medical staff to be vaccinated.
I share all this to point out that there are many Republicans who are pro-vaccine, but anti-mandate. The problem is that loudly proclaiming that sounds like mixed messaging:
1. Everyone must get vaccinated!
2. I’m vaccinated. Everyone should get vaccinated. But I’m opposed to requiring vaccinations.
3. Vaccines are the spawn of the devil!!!
Two of those are clear and concise positions. #2 requires you to hold what appear to be conflicting thoughts in your head at the same time, and frankly, many people can’t do that.
Let's simply restate #2 as, I believe vaccines work and getting one is a personal choice. Now you're no longer in two camps and instead, making what seems to be a widely held position.
This is the current UK data on the prevalence of "long covid". It's a pretty frightening picture of the long-term effects of covid, particularly given that the survey seems to include people with asymptomatic infections.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/6january2022
The proportion of people with self-reported long COVID who reported that it reduced their ability to carry out daily activities remained stable compared with previous months; symptoms adversely affected the day-to-day activities of 809,000 people (64% of those with self-reported long COVID), with 247,000 (20%) reporting that their ability to undertake their day-to-day activities had been “limited a lot”.
Fatigue continued to be the most common symptom reported as part of individuals' experience of long COVID (51% of those with self-reported long COVID), followed by loss of smell (37%), shortness of breath (36%), and difficulty concentrating (28%).
Do we know if the Omicron variant causes the same type of long covid symptoms? Given that vaccination is so much less effective at preventing it, that could be a real problem . . . as it seems like many governments have latched on to the 'less virulence' of Omicron as a good thing and are aiming for high infections/herd immunity with this variant.
Do we know if the Omicron variant causes the same type of long covid symptoms? Given that vaccination is so much less effective at preventing it, that could be a real problem . . . as it seems like many governments have latched on to the 'less virulence' of Omicron as a good thing and are aiming for high infections/herd immunity with this variant.I don't think anyone's yet had Omicron for long enough for us to know - the first confirmed infections with Omicron were found to date from November 19.
Except for China who is still going into strict quarantine for cities of 1 million people with 3 cases. Makes me wonder what they know that we don't know.
Except for China who is still going into strict quarantine for cities of 1 million people with 3 cases. Makes me wonder what they know that we don't know.
It's not necessary that they know something that we don't. They control the narrative, including online. Thus, they may not have the same pressure from the population - the people may still be in the warfighting spirit.
Except for China who is still going into strict quarantine for cities of 1 million people with 3 cases. Makes me wonder what they know that we don't know.
It's not necessary that they know something that we don't. They control the narrative, including online. Thus, they may not have the same pressure from the population - the people may still be in the warfighting spirit.
I've also wondered if they are trying to keep the Olympics from being cancelled.
Three opinion articles pertinent to the transition of the Covid pandemic to endemicity were published today in the Journal of the american Medical Association (JAMA). Interestingly, the authors suggest some policies the current administration is already pursuing albeit with the messiness of politics injected into the situation.
A National Strategy for the “New Normal” of Life With COVID
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787944
A National Strategy for COVID-19 Medical Countermeasures
Vaccines and Therapeutics
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787946
A National Strategy for COVID-19
Testing, Surveillance, and Mitigation Strategies
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787945
This is a 4 month old article but so relevant today when cases incidences are high, especially the stat that says childrens hospitalizations are way up.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/
Question on "fully vaccinated" vs the booster shot.
I know that after some period of time (10 weeks?) after being considered fully vax'd, the efficacy of the shots begins to wane. Thus, the booster is needed to top off the resistance levels.
Would it be fair to say that someone that has just recently received their second shot would have the same general virus fighting ability as someone that was fully vaccinated 10 months ago and just got their booster?
I'm mainly curious as it pertains to how kids will fare through this since they are all a long way off from a booster.
The third shot (booster) results in higher antibody levels than the second shot thus overcoming resistance of Omicron. It is also likely that T-cell immunity is enhanced.
The third shot (booster) results in higher antibody levels than the second shot thus overcoming resistance of Omicron. It is also likely that T-cell immunity is enhanced.
I'm a little confused by this statement.
Having three shots results in higher antibody levels and maybe T-cell immunity - definatley. That gives much better odds against hospitalization (a little over 80% from everything that I've read). But it doesn't 'overcome resistance' to Omicron does it. The numbers I've seen given were only about a 35% resistance against actually catching the disease.
The third shot (booster) results in higher antibody levels than the second shot thus overcoming resistance of Omicron. It is also likely that T-cell immunity is enhanced.
I'm a little confused by this statement.
Having three shots results in higher antibody levels and maybe T-cell immunity - definitely. That gives much better odds against hospitalization (a little over 80% from everything that I've read). But it doesn't 'overcome resistance' to Omicron does it. The numbers I've seen given were only about a 35% resistance against actually catching the disease.
Omicron is less susceptible to neutralizing antibodies induced by either immunization or infection with a previous variant - it has become partially resistant to these neutralizing antibodies.
The effect is higher rates of infection, higher rates of symptomatic infection (i.e. disease), higher rates of hospitalization, and higher rates of death than previous variants in double vaccinated people.
The third shot increases antibody titers by at least an order of magnitude when compared to titers after the second shot. Of course, the increase in antibodies is not directed at the Omicron specifically as the vaccine does not yet contain Omicron specific epitopes (targets).
The nearly complete restoration of immunity as seen with the effect of the third shot on symptomatic disease is considered due to crossreactivity of antibodies specific to previous variants.
Antibody crossreaction often means a weaker bond with the target, which are not strong covalent bonds to start with.
As bound versus unbound antibodies´ concentrations exist in a stochastic equilibrium that depends on the strength of the bonds and is expressed as a ratio which goes up in value with decreasing strength of the bonds (or, from another poin of view, the strengths of the bonds can be expressed as the ratio between unbound and bound antibodies), it can be seen that by simply increasing total antibody concentration, the concentration of antibodies bound to the target at any point in time can be restored (keeping in mind that all that counts is the concentration of target bound antibodies).
This is what is happening after the third shot with the increase of crossreacting antibodies overcoming the weaker bonds.
Clinically that is seen as an "overcoming of the resistance" Omicron has developed against the effects of two shot immunization by giving a third shot.
This is of course simplified but that´s how this works: weaker bonds mean a higher total concentration of antibodies is needed to match the concentration of target bound antibodies with levels previously attained with more strongly bound antibodies at lower concentrations of total antibodies, thus restoring clinical effectiveness.
The third shot (booster) results in higher antibody levels than the second shot thus overcoming resistance of Omicron. It is also likely that T-cell immunity is enhanced.
I'm a little confused by this statement.
Having three shots results in higher antibody levels and maybe T-cell immunity - definitely. That gives much better odds against hospitalization (a little over 80% from everything that I've read). But it doesn't 'overcome resistance' to Omicron does it. The numbers I've seen given were only about a 35% resistance against actually catching the disease.
Omicron is less susceptible to neutralizing antibodies induced by either immunization or infection with a previous variant - it has become partially resistant to these neutralizing antibodies.
The effect is higher rates of infection, higher rates of symptomatic infection (i.e. disease), higher rates of hospitalization, and higher rates of death than previous variants in double vaccinated people.
The third shot increases antibody titers by at least an order of magnitude when compared to titers after the second shot. Of course, the increase in antibodies is not directed at the Omicron specifically as the vaccine does not yet contain Omicron specific epitopes (targets).
The nearly complete restoration of immunity as seen with the effect of the third shot on symptomatic disease is considered due to crossreactivity of antibodies specific to previous variants.
Antibody crossreaction often means a weaker bond with the target, which are not strong covalent bonds to start with.
As bound versus unbound antibodies´ concentrations exist in a stochastic equilibrium that depends on the strength of the bonds and is expressed as a ratio which goes up in value with decreasing strength of the bonds (or, from another poin of view, the strengths of the bonds can be expressed as the ratio between unbound and bound antibodies), it can be seen that by simply increasing total antibody concentration, the concentration of antibodies bound to the target at any point in time can be restored (keeping in mind that all that counts is the concentration of target bound antibodies).
This is what is happening after the third shot with the increase of crossreacting antibodies overcoming the weaker bonds.
Clinically that is seen as an "overcoming of the resistance" Omicron has developed against the effects of two shot immunization by giving a third shot.
This is of course simplified but that´s how this works: weaker bonds mean a higher total concentration of antibodies is needed to match the concentration of target bound antibodies with levels previously attained with more strongly bound antibodies at lower concentrations of total antibodies, thus restoring clinical effectiveness.
Is the clinical effectiveness you're talking about a measure of survival of the disease, or a measure of immunity from catching it? I thought that clinical efficacy for a vaccine is measured in percentage reduction of people catching the disease. Are you talking about restoring clinical effectiveness for Delta and Alpha? Because the data seems to show that even when boosted about 2/3 people will still contract Omicron.
The third shot (booster) results in higher antibody levels than the second shot thus overcoming resistance of Omicron. It is also likely that T-cell immunity is enhanced.
I'm a little confused by this statement.
Having three shots results in higher antibody levels and maybe T-cell immunity - definitely. That gives much better odds against hospitalization (a little over 80% from everything that I've read). But it doesn't 'overcome resistance' to Omicron does it. The numbers I've seen given were only about a 35% resistance against actually catching the disease.
Omicron is less susceptible to neutralizing antibodies induced by either immunization or infection with a previous variant - it has become partially resistant to these neutralizing antibodies.
The effect is higher rates of infection, higher rates of symptomatic infection (i.e. disease), higher rates of hospitalization, and higher rates of death than previous variants in double vaccinated people.
The third shot increases antibody titers by at least an order of magnitude when compared to titers after the second shot. Of course, the increase in antibodies is not directed at the Omicron specifically as the vaccine does not yet contain Omicron specific epitopes (targets).
The nearly complete restoration of immunity as seen with the effect of the third shot on symptomatic disease is considered due to crossreactivity of antibodies specific to previous variants.
Antibody crossreaction often means a weaker bond with the target, which are not strong covalent bonds to start with.
As bound versus unbound antibodies´ concentrations exist in a stochastic equilibrium that depends on the strength of the bonds and is expressed as a ratio which goes up in value with decreasing strength of the bonds (or, from another poin of view, the strengths of the bonds can be expressed as the ratio between unbound and bound antibodies), it can be seen that by simply increasing total antibody concentration, the concentration of antibodies bound to the target at any point in time can be restored (keeping in mind that all that counts is the concentration of target bound antibodies).
This is what is happening after the third shot with the increase of crossreacting antibodies overcoming the weaker bonds.
Clinically that is seen as an "overcoming of the resistance" Omicron has developed against the effects of two shot immunization by giving a third shot.
This is of course simplified but that´s how this works: weaker bonds mean a higher total concentration of antibodies is needed to match the concentration of target bound antibodies with levels previously attained with more strongly bound antibodies at lower concentrations of total antibodies, thus restoring clinical effectiveness.
Is the clinical effectiveness you're talking about a measure of survival of the disease, or a measure of immunity from catching it? I thought that clinical efficacy for a vaccine is measured in percentage reduction of people catching the disease. Are you talking about restoring clinical effectiveness for Delta and Alpha? Because the data seems to show that even when boosted about 2/3 people will still contract Omicron.
Given that everyone seems to have given up on controlling this wave, I'm really concerned about potential fallout of long covid. We're going to have a LOT of people with it if it's a thing, and don't seem to have a concrete treatment plan or much knowledge about it.
US Covid 19 Hospitalizations Update:
Previous USA peak in Covid Hospitalizations was:
January 14th 2021 -133,268
January 11th 2022 -135,559 and rising >200% in the last 2 weeks
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
In summary; Omicron may be less intense, but it is also a heck of a lot more infectious, leading to this concerning wave.
P.S. -per the above link, unvaccinated Covid deaths are 13x higher than vaccinated Covid deaths right now ->wow!
US Covid 19 Hospitalizations Update:
Previous USA peak in Covid Hospitalizations was:
January 14th 2021 -133,268
January 11th 2022 -135,559 and rising >200% in the last 2 weeks
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
In summary; Omicron may be less intense, but it is also a heck of a lot more infectious, leading to this concerning wave.
P.S. -per the above link, unvaccinated Covid deaths are 13x higher than vaccinated Covid deaths right now ->wow!
So it is basically (not totally) a pandemic of the unvaccinated. In "unvaccinated" I am not counting children too young to be vaccinated, or those who cannot be vaccinated because of health issues - but they are the people the rest of us should be getting vaccinated to protect.
And to those (not here) who say - but but - I was a child when there were no vaccines for all the childhood diseases, so we all caught them from each other, and vulnerable adults caught them from us. I had measles and chicken pox (I still have a few scars all these decades later), my sister had mumps and measles and chicken pox. Mumps in adult men can cause sterility, btw. So now the children get vaccinated and protect each other and us.
US Covid 19 Hospitalizations Update:
Previous USA peak in Covid Hospitalizations was:
January 14th 2021 -133,268
January 11th 2022 -135,559 and rising >200% in the last 2 weeks
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
In summary; Omicron may be less intense, but it is also a heck of a lot more infectious, leading to this concerning wave.
P.S. -per the above link, unvaccinated Covid deaths are 13x higher than vaccinated Covid deaths right now ->wow!
So it is basically (not totally) a pandemic of the unvaccinated. In "unvaccinated" I am not counting children too young to be vaccinated, or those who cannot be vaccinated because of health issues - but they are the people the rest of us should be getting vaccinated to protect.
And to those (not here) who say - but but - I was a child when there were no vaccines for all the childhood diseases, so we all caught them from each other, and vulnerable adults caught them from us. I had measles and chicken pox (I still have a few scars all these decades later), my sister had mumps and measles and chicken pox. Mumps in adult men can cause sterility, btw. So now the children get vaccinated and protect each other and us.
If we have changed the target from not getting Covid to not being in the hospital from Covid, then yes... generally pandemic of the unvaccinated. What exactly is a pandemic though, I believe it's the spread of the virus throughout a large region/world in which case at this point, it's still an everyone pandemic. Vaccinated or not... here it comes.
US Covid 19 Hospitalizations Update:
Previous USA peak in Covid Hospitalizations was:
January 14th 2021 -133,268
January 11th 2022 -135,559 and rising >200% in the last 2 weeks
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
In summary; Omicron may be less intense, but it is also a heck of a lot more infectious, leading to this concerning wave.
P.S. -per the above link, unvaccinated Covid deaths are 13x higher than vaccinated Covid deaths right now ->wow!
So it is basically (not totally) a pandemic of the unvaccinated. In "unvaccinated" I am not counting children too young to be vaccinated, or those who cannot be vaccinated because of health issues - but they are the people the rest of us should be getting vaccinated to protect.
And to those (not here) who say - but but - I was a child when there were no vaccines for all the childhood diseases, so we all caught them from each other, and vulnerable adults caught them from us. I had measles and chicken pox (I still have a few scars all these decades later), my sister had mumps and measles and chicken pox. Mumps in adult men can cause sterility, btw. So now the children get vaccinated and protect each other and us.
If we have changed the target from not getting Covid to not being in the hospital from Covid, then yes... generally pandemic of the unvaccinated. What exactly is a pandemic though, I believe it's the spread of the virus throughout a large region/world in which case at this point, it's still an everyone pandemic. Vaccinated or not... here it comes.
US Covid 19 Hospitalizations Update:
Previous USA peak in Covid Hospitalizations was:
January 14th 2021 -133,268
January 11th 2022 -135,559 and rising >200% in the last 2 weeks
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
In summary; Omicron may be less intense, but it is also a heck of a lot more infectious, leading to this concerning wave.
P.S. -per the above link, unvaccinated Covid deaths are 13x higher than vaccinated Covid deaths right now ->wow!
So it is basically (not totally) a pandemic of the unvaccinated. In "unvaccinated" I am not counting children too young to be vaccinated, or those who cannot be vaccinated because of health issues - but they are the people the rest of us should be getting vaccinated to protect.
And to those (not here) who say - but but - I was a child when there were no vaccines for all the childhood diseases, so we all caught them from each other, and vulnerable adults caught them from us. I had measles and chicken pox (I still have a few scars all these decades later), my sister had mumps and measles and chicken pox. Mumps in adult men can cause sterility, btw. So now the children get vaccinated and protect each other and us.
If we have changed the target from not getting Covid to not being in the hospital from Covid, then yes... generally pandemic of the unvaccinated. What exactly is a pandemic though, I believe it's the spread of the virus throughout a large region/world in which case at this point, it's still an everyone pandemic. Vaccinated or not... here it comes.
Given that everyone seems to have given up on controlling this wave, I'm really concerned about potential fallout of long covid. We're going to have a LOT of people with it if it's a thing, and don't seem to have a concrete treatment plan or much knowledge about it.Even people who haven't given up are getting COVID.
I don’t have long Covid in that sense, thank goodness, but I do have one ongoing impact. This is going to sound strange, but I honestly feel dumber.
I don’t have long Covid in that sense, thank goodness, but I do have one ongoing impact. This is going to sound strange, but I honestly feel dumber.
I went to my doctor a few months ago because I'd been having pretty serious neurological/brain issues. (Feeling slower, foggier, severe memory issues) When I described it, their first question was "Did you have COVID?" without blinking an eye. In my case I didn't have COVID, but they said they've been seeing a lot of this kind of thing with people who did. :-(
A good friend of mine (just a couple of years older than me) has had long COVID since March 2020 and had to take months off work and still can't work full time. Total life and finance ruiner for her. She had a "mild" case at home and never needed to see a doctor. This virus is a nightmare.
Sounds like New Zealand was right all along, and China shutting down whole cities over a couple of cases has a point.
This current wave has to peak soon. So many reported new cases. It's doubling like every 3 days.
It doesn't help that I'm in a stronghold area for the unvaxed.
Ive basically cancelled all my everything for the next week that isn't at home. There has to be a ton of people walking around spreading covid without even knowing it right now.
Sounds like New Zealand was right all along, and China shutting down whole cities over a couple of cases has a point.
Gives a new perspective on the old "What about my freedumb?" argument that we've heard so often.
I’m now vaccinated and boosted, but I had Covid pre-vaccine. I’m middle age and healthy, and while Covid was painful, recovery was just a matter of rest, fluids, and painkillers. The recovery was slow, months longer than the worst flu I ever had, with extended loss of smell/taste and a lot of lingering fatigue.This is a concern of mine also. I mean, I already feel the effects of middle age. I don't need to add COVID decline on top of that.
I have an older family member who has genuine long Covid, and she is receiving ongoing diagnostics and treatment (more like medical advice as there is not much they can do). I don’t have long Covid in that sense, thank goodness, but I do have one ongoing impact. This is going to sound strange, but I honestly feel dumber.
I’ve been know all my life as a very intelligent person. Top in class, great SAT scores, top tier universities, won the spelling bee, beat my friends at Trivial Pursuit every time… all that stuff, both the achievement and the silly. But since Covid, my brain just doesn’t work as well. It has gotten better now than right after the worst symptoms subsided, but I simply don’t have the CPU speed and instant recall that I had before. Now maybe that’s Covid, or maybe that’s just middle age and therefore coincidental (correlation does not equal causation…). However, if it is Covid, and it’s widespread, we’re in for trouble because…
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
— George Carlin
Sounds like New Zealand was right all along, and China shutting down whole cities over a couple of cases has a point.
Gives a new perspective on the old "What about my freedumb?" argument that we've heard so often.
Sounds like New Zealand was right all along, and China shutting down whole cities over a couple of cases has a point.
Gives a new perspective on the old "What about my freedumb?" argument that we've heard so often.
But what are we going to do? Go into a massive shutdown every winter to control the spread? This is going to happen again next winter, just like it did in 2019 and 2020...
I still feel Australia has a huge advantage. They have the knowledge of good treatments that we didn't, time to stockpile equipment, and healthcare workers who aren't already completely burned out as we hit new peak numbers.We've got enormous problems. Probably like the rest of the world has had, but maybe not. Our health system is really under strain, but you've heard it all before.
I have a mask question and this is a thread full of people who know their medicine, so here goes.(K)N95s come in different sizes. Find one that fits. They are the ones you want. Filtering for dust and the like is the same in this instance as filtering for tiny droplets. The COVID bugs don’t fly solo, they transport in moisture droplets from respiration, sneezing, coughing, talking, etc.
Stores finally have N95 masks in stock. But when I look at the descriptions they are for dust, construction, asbestos, stuff like that (from online description 3M™ N95 Sanding and Fiberglass Respirator helps protect against mold, granular pesticides, allergens and dust). Are they still the N95s that are good for Covid?
I do have some KN95s but the fit is so bad I don't see much point in wearing them. My surgical masks altered to fit well are more useful.
I have a mask question and this is a thread full of people who know their medicine, so here goes.FFP3 is the standard in the UK for medical staff dealing with covid patients. The masks do need to be fitted properly.
Stores finally have N95 masks in stock. But when I look at the descriptions they are for dust, construction, asbestos, stuff like that (from online description 3M™ N95 Sanding and Fiberglass Respirator helps protect against mold, granular pesticides, allergens and dust). Are they still the N95s that are good for Covid?
I do have some KN95s but the fit is so bad I don't see much point in wearing them. My surgical masks altered to fit well are more useful.
I still feel Australia has a huge advantage. They have the knowledge of good treatments that we didn't, time to stockpile equipment, and healthcare workers who aren't already completely burned out as we hit new peak numbers.We've got enormous problems. Probably like the rest of the world has had, but maybe not. Our health system is really under strain, but you've heard it all before.
Because we've been rigorous in testing, truck drivers have been being tested every few days (5? whatever), and if they're positive, they've been rested. We currently have 40% of all truck drivers off the road, so warehouses are full, but goods can't be transported to shops, so a lot of shops are running out of things. It's summer, so we're harvesting, but there aren't many fruit pickers, and there aren't trucks to transport fresh fruit and vegetables from farms. A lot of shops are closing because their staff are all positive. They're changing the rules, so truck drivers can drive while positive, and doctors and nurses can work while positive...
I leave you with these little graphs from our daily government covid19 report
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022/01/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-13-january-2022.pdf
Thanks all. The issue with buying masks is you can't try them on beforehand. So I could buy a bunch of different brands before I found one that fit.
I have some N95s from the before-times that I bought for mixing dyes. The dyes are not toxic, but the danger is in their tiny particulate size. The masks get worn for much less than an hour at a time and are then not worn for a few to many days (I don't go out much in public) and still look pretty good. But the elastics are starting to go. I am looking at N95s that look pretty much the same shape as the ones I have, because I know they fit well. So if they are suitable (I figured they were, but really wanted to be sure) I will go that route.
Thanks all. The issue with buying masks is you can't try them on beforehand. So I could buy a bunch of different brands before I found one that fit.
I have some N95s from the before-times that I bought for mixing dyes. The dyes are not toxic, but the danger is in their tiny particulate size. The masks get worn for much less than an hour at a time and are then not worn for a few to many days (I don't go out much in public) and still look pretty good. But the elastics are starting to go. I am looking at N95s that look pretty much the same shape as the ones I have, because I know they fit well. So if they are suitable (I figured they were, but really wanted to be sure) I will go that route.
If you have good fitting masks with old elastics, just put some superglue and a couple stitches into an appropriate sized elastic band. I've been doing this with some older n95s that I've got and it works fine.
Thanks all. The issue with buying masks is you can't try them on beforehand. So I could buy a bunch of different brands before I found one that fit.
I have some N95s from the before-times that I bought for mixing dyes. The dyes are not toxic, but the danger is in their tiny particulate size. The masks get worn for much less than an hour at a time and are then not worn for a few to many days (I don't go out much in public) and still look pretty good. But the elastics are starting to go. I am looking at N95s that look pretty much the same shape as the ones I have, because I know they fit well. So if they are suitable (I figured they were, but really wanted to be sure) I will go that route.
If you have good fitting masks with old elastics, just put some superglue and a couple stitches into an appropriate sized elastic band. I've been doing this with some older n95s that I've got and it works fine.
Oh I could easily do that. I sew, I have a box full of elastic. I was thinking that if I have worn them enough that the elastic is going, how much degradation has the mask had? Because the masks themselves look fine. But am I going to be able to see microscopic issues? No.
Long covid will be an issue. It is real. The question is how long does it last, and more specifically what is the distribution curve of that time?
There are also a few things to separate out:
Long-term effects from severe COVID that caused acute lung injury or ARDS. This is potentially on top of any other effects from less-severe cases. These people will never have full respiratory capacity due to the fibrosis in their lungs. Even if they didn't use their full respiratory capacity anyway (couch potato), it may not have as deleterious effects but they will notice it.
Long-term effects from mild/moderate COVID without permanent lung injury. We are seeing a variety of neurologic (especially autonomic nervous system) effects resulting in dysregulation of heart rate and blood pressure. While not life-threatening, they can cause significant distress due to the unpredictability and feeling of almost passing out. In addition, there is post-encephalitis condition being seen in some people leading to decreased concentration and memory recall issues. While less common, these can be quite debilitating.
Secondary effects from deconditioning as a result of prolonged respiratory problems and/or autonomic dysregulation - it is hard to exercise regularly with these symptoms for obvious reasons, and this will lead to muscle loss along with weight gain.
The big question that we have not yet answered is the first one: how long does this last on average, and what is the longest it lasts? Permanent deconditioning from lung injury is expected, but the others are big unknowns.
To add another layer on this - normal coronaviruses rarely cause severe complications like this. Is omicron more similar in behavior to these, or more similar to SARS/MERS behavior? This is a separate (but likely related) issue from how severe the short-term effects are.
Only time (and good data) will tell.
Observations on Omicron vs. other strains:
Cases in Houston remain astronomical (10k per day!), but the % positive is starting to decline, as expected. Approximately 250,000 positive cases have occurred since the beginning of December in the Houston area alone (or 6% of the population).
Hospitalization in the Houston area has plateaued (for 2 weeks now it has been at slightly above the peak seen during the Delta surge). Unfortunately this does not seem to be budging downwards yet, but should in the next week (since the case % positive rate is decreasing).
We have similar number of non-ICU patients hospitalized as at the delta peak. This shows signs of plateauing, which suggests that we may have reached a steady-state equilibrium of admissions and discharges. This is in line with less severity of omicron vs. delta, but is still worse than prior non-delta variants. Most of these patients should be discharged rather than going to the ICU, and this will decrease in 2-3 weeks since length of hospitalization is shorter with omicron.
The proportion of ICU to non-ICU is lower, again indicating less severity. This has also plateaued, but at a lower level than delta or prior variants. This will take the longest time to decline.
The death rate from hospitalization with COVID-19 has finally decreased to below 10%. On a sobering note, over 110,000 hospitalizations have occurred in the Houston area alone since the start of the pandemic.
Overall summary: omicron is less severe than delta, probably slightly less than alpha or other variants, but is not a walk in the park for unvaccinated.
For vaccinated people, this seems to be like a moderate flu (tired/coughing for a few days, then resolved). This is the optimal scenario for us, as it will likely reduce future outbreaks (barring yet another major mutation event that is resistant to both anti-Delta and anti-Omicron antibodies) while not inflicting excess suffering on the unvaccinated.
Long covid will be an issue. It is real. The question is how long does it last, and more specifically what is the distribution curve of that time?
There are also a few things to separate out:
Long-term effects from severe COVID that caused acute lung injury or ARDS. This is potentially on top of any other effects from less-severe cases. These people will never have full respiratory capacity due to the fibrosis in their lungs. Even if they didn't use their full respiratory capacity anyway (couch potato), it may not have as deleterious effects but they will notice it.
Long-term effects from mild/moderate COVID without permanent lung injury. We are seeing a variety of neurologic (especially autonomic nervous system) effects resulting in dysregulation of heart rate and blood pressure. While not life-threatening, they can cause significant distress due to the unpredictability and feeling of almost passing out. In addition, there is post-encephalitis condition being seen in some people leading to decreased concentration and memory recall issues. While less common, these can be quite debilitating.
Secondary effects from deconditioning as a result of prolonged respiratory problems and/or autonomic dysregulation - it is hard to exercise regularly with these symptoms for obvious reasons, and this will lead to muscle loss along with weight gain.
The big question that we have not yet answered is the first one: how long does this last on average, and what is the longest it lasts? Permanent deconditioning from lung injury is expected, but the others are big unknowns.
To add another layer on this - normal coronaviruses rarely cause severe complications like this. Is omicron more similar in behavior to these, or more similar to SARS/MERS behavior? This is a separate (but likely related) issue from how severe the short-term effects are.
Only time (and good data) will tell.
Observations on Omicron vs. other strains:
Cases in Houston remain astronomical (10k per day!), but the % positive is starting to decline, as expected. Approximately 250,000 positive cases have occurred since the beginning of December in the Houston area alone (or 6% of the population).
Hospitalization in the Houston area has plateaued (for 2 weeks now it has been at slightly above the peak seen during the Delta surge). Unfortunately this does not seem to be budging downwards yet, but should in the next week (since the case % positive rate is decreasing).
We have similar number of non-ICU patients hospitalized as at the delta peak. This shows signs of plateauing, which suggests that we may have reached a steady-state equilibrium of admissions and discharges. This is in line with less severity of omicron vs. delta, but is still worse than prior non-delta variants. Most of these patients should be discharged rather than going to the ICU, and this will decrease in 2-3 weeks since length of hospitalization is shorter with omicron.
The proportion of ICU to non-ICU is lower, again indicating less severity. This has also plateaued, but at a lower level than delta or prior variants. This will take the longest time to decline.
The death rate from hospitalization with COVID-19 has finally decreased to below 10%. On a sobering note, over 110,000 hospitalizations have occurred in the Houston area alone since the start of the pandemic.
Overall summary: omicron is less severe than delta, probably slightly less than alpha or other variants, but is not a walk in the park for unvaccinated.
For vaccinated people, this seems to be like a moderate flu (tired/coughing for a few days, then resolved). This is the optimal scenario for us, as it will likely reduce future outbreaks (barring yet another major mutation event that is resistant to both anti-Delta and anti-Omicron antibodies) while not inflicting excess suffering on the unvaccinated.
And to add to this, here is an article about the long term effects on the survivors.
I have mentioned this in a couple of posts before: the full impact of Covid on the unvaxxed population is seriously underestimated.
https://www.ft.com/content/a1b5350a-4dba-40f4-833b-1e35199e2e9b
And to add to this, here is an article about the long term effects on the survivors.
I have mentioned this in a couple of posts before: the full impact of Covid on the unvaxxed population is seriously underestimated.
https://www.ft.com/content/a1b5350a-4dba-40f4-833b-1e35199e2e9b
That's paywalled for me. Can you summarize some of the more important points?
But what are we going to do? Go into a massive shutdown every winter to control the spread? This is going to happen again next winter, just like it did in 2019 and 2020...
N95's that are rated/labeled for construction have passed certain testing required for that usage.
N95's that are rated/labeled for medical have to pass certain tests required for that usage.
By and large IF the manufacturer tested their construction N95 to the medical standards it would pass for everything..... At least the big name brand ones (3M). But the elastic strap for surgery might have a different requirement than for construction. It might have to specifically be resistant to materials used in surgical settings, ie not lose elasticity if in contact with latex or blood or whatever else it might touch.
In other words, but good brands and don't worry about it, you'll be fine.
I'm curious which countries you think are exemplars of good policy and how those policies mapped to their outcomes. For starters, I would set aside islands and China as special cases that may not easily replicate.But what are we going to do? Go into a massive shutdown every winter to control the spread? This is going to happen again next winter, just like it did in 2019 and 2020...
At this point - probably nothing (besides vax and masks). But we didn't have to be here, and countries that did it better earlier are reaping the benefits now.
I mean, benefits besides not losing the entire population of Alaska, or Wyoming + half of Wyoming again.
I'm curious which countries you think are exemplars of good policy and how those policies mapped to their outcomes. For starters, I would set aside islands and China as special cases that may not easily replicate.
For some countries that did well, it's hard to understand what common factor may have led to their success. Some policies, at the very least, clearly delayed infections, but may not have indefinitely prevented them. However, thanks to the subsequent availability of vaccines, those delayed deaths became locked in to the extent the populace embraced vaccination. So looking at pre- and post-vaccine mortality may reveal more about vaccine uptake rates than anything about the detailed policies, without a lot of detailed statistical work.
In some areas, there seemed to be persistently lower infection rates and death rates than other areas: Japan, the Nordics, Canada, some of Southeast Asia. It's possible to squint at that Rorschach test and come up with whatever explanation strikes your fancy.
In other areas, case and death counts are low, but we should have very little confidence in official stats (India, where excess death estimates [at least 4 Alaskas] put the overall per-capita death toll at levels only modestly lower than the US)--and in sub-Saharan Africa, there is also the significant confounding factor of very low median age (~19 years, versus mid-thirties to early forties in Europe + US, etc., and as we know, covid risk increases exponentially with age).
To me, the answer doesn't look simple, and is certainly multi-causal. Policy differences surely play a role, but it does not seem obvious outside of a tiny number of extreme examples that the differences are primarily due to policies versus policies + some combination of one or two dozen other factors, many of which are not directly controllable. I just hope that simplistic analysis doesn't end up justifying policies of questionable value that lead to absurdities like this (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55631198).
There are some clear arguments against taking national-level policies as being decisive in determining the outcomes. See the pair of charts I produced comparing US states to Canadian provinces, and the same versus German states as an example. What surprised me, not looking within other countries at any detail on a regular basis, is how the variation in outcomes extends to sub-national units.I'm curious which countries you think are exemplars of good policy and how those policies mapped to their outcomes. For starters, I would set aside islands and China as special cases that may not easily replicate.
For some countries that did well, it's hard to understand what common factor may have led to their success. Some policies, at the very least, clearly delayed infections, but may not have indefinitely prevented them. However, thanks to the subsequent availability of vaccines, those delayed deaths became locked in to the extent the populace embraced vaccination. So looking at pre- and post-vaccine mortality may reveal more about vaccine uptake rates than anything about the detailed policies, without a lot of detailed statistical work.
In some areas, there seemed to be persistently lower infection rates and death rates than other areas: Japan, the Nordics, Canada, some of Southeast Asia. It's possible to squint at that Rorschach test and come up with whatever explanation strikes your fancy.
In other areas, case and death counts are low, but we should have very little confidence in official stats (India, where excess death estimates [at least 4 Alaskas] put the overall per-capita death toll at levels only modestly lower than the US)--and in sub-Saharan Africa, there is also the significant confounding factor of very low median age (~19 years, versus mid-thirties to early forties in Europe + US, etc., and as we know, covid risk increases exponentially with age).
To me, the answer doesn't look simple, and is certainly multi-causal. Policy differences surely play a role, but it does not seem obvious outside of a tiny number of extreme examples that the differences are primarily due to policies versus policies + some combination of one or two dozen other factors, many of which are not directly controllable. I just hope that simplistic analysis doesn't end up justifying policies of questionable value that lead to absurdities like this (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55631198).
I absolutely agree with you that there aren't easy answers, that causes are many, and that policy only takes you so far. Things are even more complicated by the fact that policies changed, and countries that did well could then go down, or vice versa. However, I don't think there is a reason to believe that policy is absolutely useless, and we should just lay down and let the virus run its course.
I also agree that as policies are concerned, pre- and post-vaccine periods are two very distinct phases, and we need to look at death rates in them separately. it is the first phase when policies were most impactful, and where we should look at success and failure stories. Sweden vs the rest of Nordic countries is a very useful example.
For examples of a clear success, I'd look at excess deaths: https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 (scroll about half-way down). South Korea, Norway and Denmark clearly stand out. Neither is an island (although SK is almost one). Canada, at +5%, and Germany, at +3%, look very good, and I don't see a reason why the US couldn't have been closer to Canada's 5% than to our current +19%. Each percentage point is 40,000 Americans. Even 1 PP reduction would have been very very meaningful.
People like to point out that US has a lot of unhealthy population. This is true, and it is also a policy failure, although the one that far predates Covid. But we had two huge advantages. And by huge, I mean HUGE: access to virtually unlimited amount of money, and high number of ICUs per capita. The third huge advantage was that we were first in line for the most advanced vaccines - and we squandered this advantage in an absolutely spectacular fashion.
We tend to set the latter (low vaccination rate) aside as something beyond anyone's control, but it was not. It was 110% a policy failure of the previous administration - failure so grotesque that we now see it as, essentially, a force of nature. But it was a policy of that administration to downplay the severity of the pandemic, from Day 1 of Covid to the last day it controlled the executive branch. I can't see how a case can be made that it didn't have a very meaningful impact, from people refusing to wear masks to them again refusing to vaccinate. It absolutely, with 100% certainty, pushed our death rate up, in both pre- and post-vaccine phases.
As for the husband on the leash and a fine - yes, it is hilarious, but what is the level of badness of this policy as measured in human lives? You have to judge it against policies that left 10's of thousands of people needlessly dead.
There are some clear arguments against taking national-level policies as being decisive in determining the outcomes. See the pair of charts I produced comparing US states to Canadian provinces, and the same versus German states as an example. What surprised me, not looking within other countries at any detail on a regular basis, is how the variation in outcomes extends to sub-national units.
Canadian provinces are almost all better than almost all US states, but look at the difference between Quebec (where prohibition of nighttime walks was considered a wise remedy) and the maritime provinces. Note that the US and Canada both also reflect a clear urban-rural divide. That is one conclusions that seems to hold over all areas, outside of the anomalies mentioned before: high population density areas within countries (e.g. NYC) and entire countries with large, dense primate cities (e.g. London) have higher peak transmission rates during epidemic cycles, whereas exurban/rural areas experience long, lower-intensity epidemics.
Comparing to Germany, there are again striking differences. Saxony would be the 5th worse US state and Thuringia is also clearly elevated above US average death rates. What differences or other conditions existed within Germany to explain such a dramatic variance in outcomes? I really wish 100 apolitical data scientists were sealed in a vault for 2 years to go through all of the data.
You are right about the general health problems in the US, which I attribute to a terrible food-culture. It's clear many ultra-processed foods are chronic toxins, and there is too much focus on macronutrient categories when those, to a first approximation, don't matter. What matters is how whole foods versus ultra-processed foods are metabolized and the effects of potential processing contaminants. But fixing culture is the hardest thing of all.
I'm not sure how you can blame "the previous administration" for low vaccine uptake rates. There were fewer than 6 weeks from the EUA for Pfizer to the end of the Trump administration, and that period of time was dominated by supply constraints and distribution logistics problems more than any policy measure. You may argue Trump's lack of vocal support for vaccination after his term ended (until more recently) is a negative, but that does not constitute any sort of policy failure.
US Covid 19 Hospitalizations Update:
Previous USA peak in Covid Hospitalizations was:
January 14 2021 -133,268
January 11 2022 -135,559 and rising >200% in the last 2 weeks
January 20 2022 -158,638 and beginning to flatten out. This is great news. Hopefully not just a blip.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
What we are seeing right now is actually the beginning of the transition from pandemia to endemicity.
Looking at endemicity from the point of view of tolerance of a certain amount of death and suffering on the part of the general population leads directly to the perception of the severity of the threat.
With the perception of of severity of the disease decreasing, measures of risk mitigation will meet less and less acceptance. This puts vulnerable people at increasing risk. We are currently at the cusp of having highly active therapeutics generally available and these medications allow us to quickly develop strategies to avert serious infections in the immunocompromised. We will likely be able to protect the immunocompromised from serious disease in the near future, removing this large number of patients from the high risk pool leaving it comprised almost exclusively of the unvaccinated.
Ironically, the general population is about to adopt a view of Covid similar to views common on the Covid denier/no-vax side from the very beginning of the pandemic.
I cannot stress enough that the decreasing perception of illness severity on the part of the general population is in lockstep with the acceptance of bad outcomes in an identifiable subgroup, i.e. Covid deniers and the unvaxxed, effectively marginalizing them in the pursuit of return to normality.
Politically and ethically, an administration cannot simply abandon efforts to reach the vulnerable subgroup, no matter how unsympathetic the members of the group are and how ready the general population is to leave them to their own devices. Of course, extremist and populist goverments would not have a problem with that because such governments are always on the lookout for subgroups to ostracize and hurt.
And that is why I hold two apparently contradictory positions:
1. getting the vaccine is a personal choice but not getting it may require acceptance of some inconveniences in daily life
2. vaccine mandates are necessary while knowing that universal compliance is impossible to achieve.
I am certain that the current administration knows perfectly well that the bogging down of mandates in the legal system was unavoidable and that they were actually to be expected. It is also very clear that the federal mandates are achieving what could reasonably be expected to be achieved by simply starting the debate about "mandates". It is a simple case of advancing your goals just by having a debate without any expectation to win the debate.
The debate about mandates has been going on for many weeks and will keep going and here is an incomplete list of what the "mandates" are accomplishing.
The introduction of federal workforce vaccine requirements and the ongoing debate about vaccine "mandates":
1) is giving cover to employers to introduce their own requirements and inconveniences
2) is giving cover to unvaxxed individuals who may be under social pressures to not getting vaccinated or who have spouted antivaxx sentiments before and now have an excuse to get vaccinated while saving face
3) is leading to vaccinations in countless people who do not have strong opinions about vaccinations, i.e. fence sitters and procrastinators etc, and have not received them for a variety of reasons but needed a nudge
4) will be giving cover to the government against any accusations that they did not do everything in their power to reach high risk populations, and this is independent of the extent to which the courts and state legislatures allow the efforts to proceed.
Now about number 4. The administration is under pressure to demonstrate that it did everything possible to mitigate the pandemic impact on vulnerable and disadvantaged populations and everything possible is, in a liberal democracy, what is allowed under the law and the constitution and the courts are the place where the limits of executive power are established. I would be the first to accuse the government of abandonment if they did not test the limits in the federal court system. Obviously, after all efforts regarding mandates have been exhausted and nothing more can be done, the stage is set for abandonment of the remaining vaccine resistant populations to their own devices and alignment with the general public sentiment which is trending strongly towards perception of Covid as not much worse than the flu; which happens to be close to the truth for fully immunized people.
Luckily, the majority of the unvaxxed appear to ingest anything whatsoever once they feel sick, giving the administration another opening in trying to contain the catastrophe among the unvaxxed with the new antiviral drugs.
Now about the apparently decreased severity of Covid caused by Omicron. This discussion is marked by confusion and it might be time to clarify a few things.
In a certain sense this discussion is about the virulence of the coronavirus as manifested in its different variants. The problem here is that virulence is not a straightforward concept and, without a bit of background knowledge, the public discourse fails to make sense.
First we have to acknowledge that there are different meanings of the term
virulence depending on who uses the term (or a synonymous term) under which circumstances and with which intent. The reason why virulence is not a straightforward concept is because in its original meaning the virulence of a pathogen is simply a measure of the ability of a pathogen to cause disease or death. In a contolled laboratory environment in which virulence ist measured by the effect of a pathogen on a standardized host organism and the change of those effects in response to alterations of pathogen. If a particular feature of a pathogen results in a differential effect on virulence based on the absence or presence of said feature (for example absence or presence of a capsule in some bacteriae renders them either harmless or dangerous), the feature is then called a virulence factor.
In the laboratory with a standardized host organism, virulence thus appears solely determined by the pathogen. This is untrue in the real world where cases of infection are drawn from non-standardized populations and where the definition of virulence, number of cases / number of disease and death, reasserts itself as showing the virulence in the real world is just as dependent on the population from which the cases are drawn as on the pathogen itself.
The closest the public discourse comes to the scientific meaning of virulence is this:
1. the effect of a new variant on severity and frequency of severe disese and death in the unvaccinated population. This is the closest to the lab setting as the unvaxxed population is somewhat standardized because it has never encountered the pathogen. Unfortunately, at this point there is no good way to remove the never infected from the other unvaccinated in the equation, making it very difficult to arrive at an accurate estimate. The presence of some previously infected will cause underestimation of virulence to an unknown degree. This is why there is such a delay in determining if Omicron is less dangerous than other variants - the error lies in the same direction and on top of it, everybodey wants to hear that it is less dangerous.
The second way the term virulence, or equivalent, is used I would call apparent virulence, and this apparent virulence is of great importance for policy decisions:
2. Apparent virulence is simply the number of all cases in a geographic area divided by the number of cases of severe disease and death. Apparent virulence is the most important measure going into health care resource management assessments.
Apparent virulence is a measure of the impact of the pathogen on health care resources in a particular area and depends not only on the actual virulence (1., above) of the pathogen but also on the immune status of the population.
Apparent virulence therefore does not tell us much about the pathogen when the immune status of the population is not well known, but is of immense practical value for medical resource management.
The third meaning in which the term virulence or equivalent is used I would call perceived virulence:
3. Perceived virulence is the most politically charged and arguably the most important sense in which comparative disease severity of the Omicron variant is discussed. Perceived virulence (or threat perception) is what was manipulated from day one of the pandemic by political actors and is still the focus of political activity.
Covid denial, for example, is just the extreme to which downplaying disease severity (virulence) can be pushed. The extent to which the perceived virulence of the coronavirus has been successfully lowered by political actors and their multiplicators (mostly on the right) in susceptible populations can be seen in the surprise many unvaxxed Covid victims show when they get really sick and end up dying from a disease they were convinced to be largely a hoax.
Perceived virulence is now decreasing rapidly among the vaccinated as the conviction that those who are still unvaxxed cannot be reached (which is technically certainly untrue but practically likely true). The administration is actively working on all levels to support that notion and faces no resistance whatsoever as downplaying Covid is what the unvaxxed are doing all day long and the rest of the population is ready to join the unvaxxed in that stance.
Unfortunately, for the unvaxxed, the Omicron variant so far appears to be less virulent than Delta but of similar virulence as the original virus. Two years ago, the world shut down for a virus with that virulence but today we call it a mild form. This cannot be explained by anything but the lowered perceived virulence and actual apparent virulence in the vaccinated population. In other words, the unvaccinated are on their own and we can be assured that everything possibe up to "mandates" was done to help them.
Of course, this is not good news for health care resources stretched to the limit and it is not the end of what the current administration has on their plate.
The fact that majority opinion is aligning with opinions on the unvaxxed side now also means that the issues with downplaying the pandemic on the basis of ones own risk for a bad outcome are now appearing everywhere. And that is because perceived virulence is ultimately an assessment of ones own risk of a bad outcome plus a common good consideration that is now excluding the still unvaxxed.
The readiness of the general public to leave the unvaxxed in the dust and the capability of societies to tolerate mass casualties should not be underestimated. Just think how easily we tolerate tens of thousands of traffic deaths and injuries per year for te sake of transportation. We would never tolerate a death toll like that if microwave ovens were zapping us on a regular basis in exchange for some hot beferage. But a couple of hundred thousand deaths a year from Covid in the hinterlands in exchange for return to normality while not being in much danger oneself would be tolerated quite well - especially as the unvaxxed are willing to collaborate in their own deception. As long as the stakes are appropriate, an enormous number of deaths and much misery will be tolerated.
A decrease of perceived virulence of a pathogen in the general population is also the best marker for te transitioning of a pandemic to the endemic state as it is an attitude adjustment based on a risk benefit assessment. I find it fascinating to observe this in real time.
There are many moving parts but the general direction appears clearer by the day. It is obvious that we are moving toward a situation where a susceptible population that is disadvantaged for social reasons suffers the brunt of a disease transitioning to the endemic phase for the rest of the population. The fact that the behavior of this risk group does not make them sympathetic should not distract from the duty of government and other entities to find ways to mitigate the effects of the disease. Some interventions will also help decompress the health care systems such as large scale programs for preemptive antiviral treatments etc. as well as travelling health care resources to absorb local spikes and need to be vigorously pursued. I personally find it encouraging that the unvaxxed appear to be ready to swallow anything as soon as they get a sore throat - so the antiviral strategies have a chance to work.
All that said, another variant can change things but at this point I consider it likely that Omicron will result in a different immunologic situation on a society level than before, thus heralding a new phase in the coronavirus saga.
Thanks for that good review of the current situation. I would say there are antivirals available now for both immunocompetent and immunocompromised populations. Their efficacy at least at my hospital has been high - though we have quite a few covid+ hospitalized, mortality has remained low.
Yes, the antivirals appear to be rather effective but we are still far away from being able to roll out programs that make testing and early treatment universally available. I believe that acceptance of such services would be pretty good as the unvaxxed typically have no problem with medical interventions once thye are symptomatic - and yes many would gladly accept vaccination if it were possible at that point.
Important thing to note is that mortality isn’t the only outcome - many patients with severe covid, regardless of strain, have long-term and short-term complications.
Yes, there is a high likelihood that we will be facing a very high burden of chronic disease and we are nowhere near being able to meet that future need.
...
The unvaccinated immunocomponent population absolutely have a choice, and are being marginalized only in their minds. In the wake of the most extensive public health campaign in human history, expenditure of billions of dollars and millions of lives, they just choose to stick their heads in the sand. I have no sympathy for them at this point (except for their dependents’ suffering).
I can´t say that I have a lot of sympathy with the unvaxxed; but I am not a Republican and so do not consider access to health care as something that should be contingent on "good behavior" or the ability to pay.
My position is that universal access to affordable healthcare (of course including reproductive health with everything that entails) is a basic human right and as such non-negotiable.
And as for the "heads in the sand", that is how many belonging to this largely blue collar demographic have lived even before the pandemic.
The socioeconomic situation of these people is often a indebted paycheck to paycheck situation with health insurance, if they have it at all, provided through employment and that is liable to disappear promptly should the employee get seriously ill.
These people do not have a positive view of the healthcare system as any contact with a serious issue may result in bankruptcy.
The arrival of Covid instilled panic in this population because illness and the subsequent financial distress is the biggest risk to them and their families. And sure enough, they were eating up anything that suggested that the virus was not a big deal because it confirmed their preexisting attitude. By the time the vaccines came around they were so settled in their denial that it was easy for the profiteers to spread vaccine disinformation and fear of vaccine side effects.
So that is what got us here: a rural, largely blue collar population living in fear of the potential catastrophic financial impact of any health crisis (and in denial that it could happen to them) due to the lack of reliable and affordable access to health care, that had to confront Covid. I think it would have been naive to expect anything else than that same attitude prevailing in their dealing with the pandemic. And sure enough, they try to stay away from the healthcare system (that includes vaccinations) as far as possible until they get sick (and even then, they may go for the horsepaste first).
I see the unvaxxed population as comprised in good part by people who have been tricked by politicians and other profiteers over a long time.
The absence of affordable and secure access to healthcare left many with not getting sick and, quite literally, a reliance on prayer as their only strategies - with predictable results.
On the other hand, I have found that universal access to affordable healthcare including Medicaid expansion is rather popular among a good chunk of conservatives. Also, elimination of tax subsidies for employer sponsored health in order to give workers more freedom can be an interesting discussion.
In any case, there are a number of things that are popular, or could become popular enough, in this demographic to effect some changes that may put us in a better position for the next pandemic. And most of those changes would involve improved access to affordable healthcare.
TL;DR: masks work
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm
I thought this would come soon, but it came even sooner than I expected:Thanks for your interesting input in the past @PeteD01 - but what are your thoughts, are we 'out of the woods'?
"Fauci: US exiting 'full-blown' pandemic phase of coronavirus crisis"
He said: “As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/593456-fauci-us-exiting-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-coronavirus-crisis
I thought this would come soon, but it came even sooner than I expected:Thanks for your interesting input in the past @PeteD01 - but what are your thoughts, are we 'out of the woods'?
"Fauci: US exiting 'full-blown' pandemic phase of coronavirus crisis"
He said: “As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/593456-fauci-us-exiting-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-coronavirus-crisis
I thought this would come soon, but it came even sooner than I expected:Thanks for your interesting input in the past @PeteD01 - but what are your thoughts, are we 'out of the woods'?
"Fauci: US exiting 'full-blown' pandemic phase of coronavirus crisis"
He said: “As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/593456-fauci-us-exiting-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-coronavirus-crisis
It's barely more than one September 11th attack worth of deaths a day now. I don't see what all the fuss is about.
I thought this would come soon, but it came even sooner than I expected:Thanks for your interesting input in the past @PeteD01 - but what are your thoughts, are we 'out of the woods'?
"Fauci: US exiting 'full-blown' pandemic phase of coronavirus crisis"
He said: “As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/593456-fauci-us-exiting-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-coronavirus-crisis
It's barely more than one September 11th attack worth of deaths a day now. I don't see what all the fuss is about.
I thought this would come soon, but it came even sooner than I expected:
"Fauci: US exiting 'full-blown' pandemic phase of coronavirus crisis"
He said: “As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/593456-fauci-us-exiting-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-coronavirus-crisis
I thought this would come soon, but it came even sooner than I expected:Thanks for your interesting input in the past @PeteD01 - but what are your thoughts, are we 'out of the woods'?
"Fauci: US exiting 'full-blown' pandemic phase of coronavirus crisis"
He said: “As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/593456-fauci-us-exiting-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-coronavirus-crisis
It's barely more than one September 11th attack worth of deaths a day now. I don't see what all the fuss is about.
@OtherJen is that you? Got to make sure we compare the # of deaths from a virus to the # of deaths from the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
@GuitarStv didn't you just call out a poster for comparing Ottawa to Portland?
I thought this would come soon, but it came even sooner than I expected:Thanks for your interesting input in the past @PeteD01 - but what are your thoughts, are we 'out of the woods'?
"Fauci: US exiting 'full-blown' pandemic phase of coronavirus crisis"
He said: “As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/593456-fauci-us-exiting-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-coronavirus-crisis
It's barely more than one September 11th attack worth of deaths a day now. I don't see what all the fuss is about.
@OtherJen is that you? Got to make sure we compare the # of deaths from a virus to the # of deaths from the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
@GuitarStv didn't you just call out a poster for comparing Ottawa to Portland?
I thought this would come soon, but it came even sooner than I expected:Thanks for your interesting input in the past @PeteD01 - but what are your thoughts, are we 'out of the woods'?
"Fauci: US exiting 'full-blown' pandemic phase of coronavirus crisis"
He said: “As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/593456-fauci-us-exiting-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-coronavirus-crisis
The unvaxxed are dying now in a 20 to 1 ratio when compared to the unvaccinated and that is apparently good enough for the vaxxed majority to stop caring about the unvaxxed - especially because they apparently agree with being slaughtered by the plague.
At some point we either have to choose choose the France approach and ostracize them, or the Denmark approach and just open fully.
At some point we either have to choose choose the France approach and ostracize them, or the Denmark approach and just open fully.
It's mostly nitpicking on my part, so please don't take it personally. Just wanted to point out that Denmark opened up fully after hitting 81% fully vaccinated and 62% boosted.
US is at 64% fully vaccinated and 27% boosted.
Denmark's calculus on relative harm of maintaining or ending restrictions is vastly different from ours. I'm not arguing for maintaining restrictions anymore, but if we open fully it won't be Denmark's approach.
And people pushing to have the pandemic termed endemic seem to think the "end" in endemic means the end. No, it just means it is here to stay. Lots of endemic diseases occur at high levels and are damaging - malaria is a good example.
Our "Freedom Convoy" protesters want an end to masks and vaccine mandates and everything else - yet they are the ones who are now most at risk. And we know that some of them have Covid, because our wastewater viral levels were consistently decreasing for a while, and then went right back up when the protesters arrived.
And people pushing to have the pandemic termed endemic seem to think the "end" in endemic means the end. No, it just means it is here to stay. Lots of endemic diseases occur at high levels and are damaging - malaria is a good example.
Our "Freedom Convoy" protesters want an end to masks and vaccine mandates and everything else - yet they are the ones who are now most at risk. And we know that some of them have Covid, because our wastewater viral levels were consistently decreasing for a while, and then went right back up when the protesters arrived.
The bolded needs an exclamation point, and is such an encapsulation of how anger-inducing and simultaneously heartbreaking the downstream effects of covid/vaccine misinformation is.
And people pushing to have the pandemic termed endemic seem to think the "end" in endemic means the end. No, it just means it is here to stay. Lots of endemic diseases occur at high levels and are damaging - malaria is a good example.
Our "Freedom Convoy" protesters want an end to masks and vaccine mandates and everything else - yet they are the ones who are now most at risk. And we know that some of them have Covid, because our wastewater viral levels were consistently decreasing for a while, and then went right back up when the protesters arrived.
The bolded needs an exclamation point, and is such an encapsulation of how anger-inducing and simultaneously heartbreaking the downstream effects of covid/vaccine misinformation is.
The youtube posted by Pete in the Biden thread invokes this feeling well.
https://youtu.be/Ofhb5_QpYyg?t=137
"Slow the testing down, please." And they bought it. It made sense to them.
You’re absolutely correct on Denmark’s numbers. On top of that, they spent much of the pandemic requiring a negative (saliva) test less than 72 hours old to do anything in public - grocery store, restaurant, school, work. So even though Denmark didn’t have a vaccine mandate, there were reasons to get vaccinated.
My province is rapidly scaling back all restrictions too, largely a political decision due to protests, it appears. Doctors are saying it's too much too quickly. The next couple of months should be interesting. There's little testing now, and positivity rates haven't been reported in about a month, because it's impossible. Hospitalizations have decreased a bit, but still pretty high and there are anywhere from 2 -12 deaths daily in a population of 1.3 million. I expect things to worsen for a while after the restrictions lift in mid-March, so I'm still going to be very cautious until I see how things play out. If another worse variant comes along, things will get hairy, because no one is going to want to go back to any kind of restrictions, so I'm a little concerned about that.
Our case numbers are totally inaccurate since testing is now hit and miss. Hospital cases and wastewater numbers are more useful. Our hospital numbers are separated between came in because of covid and came in for something else, found out they had covid when tested on entering the hospital.
Unvaccinated : Vaccinated Covid19 death ratio remains 20:1
Unvaccinated : Vaccinated Covid19 death ratio remains 20:1
Is there an updated figure somewhere? The NYT page still shows that figure is from late November/early December.
As of January 8, 2022, during Omicron predominance, these rate ratios were lower for both comparisons, with infection and hospitalization rates among unvaccinated persons 3.6 times and 23.0 times, respectively, those in fully vaccinated persons with a booster, and 2.0 and 5.3 times, respectively, those in fully vaccinated persons without a booster.
Excess deaths in the US during the pandemic are now over one million -
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/dataviz8737/viz/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_02162022/NumberOfExcessDeaths
And here is a chilling review of Long Covid neurologic complications:
Nervous system consequences of COVID-19
• 20 Jan 2022 • Vol 375, Issue 6578 • pp. 267-269 • DOI: 10.1126/science.abm2052
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm2052
And here is a chilling review of Long Covid neurologic complications:
Nervous system consequences of COVID-19
• 20 Jan 2022 • Vol 375, Issue 6578 • pp. 267-269 • DOI: 10.1126/science.abm2052
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm2052
I really, really, really want more data and info about this. What the risks are, who is most at risk, what the prevalence is, etc. You would think that this would be very important to know before opening everything up and exposing people to this potential issue.
And here is a chilling review of Long Covid neurologic complications:
Nervous system consequences of COVID-19
• 20 Jan 2022 • Vol 375, Issue 6578 • pp. 267-269 • DOI: 10.1126/science.abm2052
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm2052
I really, really, really want more data and info about this. What the risks are, who is most at risk, what the prevalence is, etc. You would think that this would be very important to know before opening everything up and exposing people to this potential issue.
Welcome, Millions, to the joys of persistent but vague, mostly 'undiagnosable' autoimmune misery. We who live here already salute you.
At least this will likely force the American medical establishment to get better at dealing with it, b/c they are pretty shit right now.
yes
That small fiber neuropathy is interesting; I wonder if that type of mechanism could account for my development of Reynaud's and persistent torso-based paresthesias, among many other autoimmune troubles that appeared a few years ago.
And here is a chilling review of Long Covid neurologic complications:
Nervous system consequences of COVID-19
• 20 Jan 2022 • Vol 375, Issue 6578 • pp. 267-269 • DOI: 10.1126/science.abm2052
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm2052
I really, really, really want more data and info about this. What the risks are, who is most at risk, what the prevalence is, etc. You would think that this would be very important to know before opening everything up and exposing people to this potential issue.
It is not a potential issue but something that is actually going on as we speak.
Because only the most absurdly strict restrictions (shutting down entire cities for weeks, e.g., China) is going to keep Omicron out. Given that is not a viable option, it is a plain fact we will be living with covid.And here is a chilling review of Long Covid neurologic complications:
Nervous system consequences of COVID-19
• 20 Jan 2022 • Vol 375, Issue 6578 • pp. 267-269 • DOI: 10.1126/science.abm2052
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm2052
I really, really, really want more data and info about this. What the risks are, who is most at risk, what the prevalence is, etc. You would think that this would be very important to know before opening everything up and exposing people to this potential issue.
It is not a potential issue but something that is actually going on as we speak.
I meant 'potential' in that not everyone who survives covid will develop it. Not trying to imply that this isn't a serious problem right now.
How come nobody talks about this when we discuss 'living with covid' and removing all restrictions?
Because only the most absurdly strict restrictions (shutting down entire cities for weeks, e.g., China) is going to keep Omicron out. Given that is not a viable option, it is a plain fact we will be living with covid.And here is a chilling review of Long Covid neurologic complications:
Nervous system consequences of COVID-19
• 20 Jan 2022 • Vol 375, Issue 6578 • pp. 267-269 • DOI: 10.1126/science.abm2052
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm2052
I really, really, really want more data and info about this. What the risks are, who is most at risk, what the prevalence is, etc. You would think that this would be very important to know before opening everything up and exposing people to this potential issue.
It is not a potential issue but something that is actually going on as we speak.
I meant 'potential' in that not everyone who survives covid will develop it. Not trying to imply that this isn't a serious problem right now.
How come nobody talks about this when we discuss 'living with covid' and removing all restrictions?
Maybe that is the lower quality argument, but the higher quality argument is that we are not going to meaningfully control a virus with R0 of 8 or 10, or whatever, through hygiene-theater.Because only the most absurdly strict restrictions (shutting down entire cities for weeks, e.g., China) is going to keep Omicron out. Given that is not a viable option, it is a plain fact we will be living with covid.And here is a chilling review of Long Covid neurologic complications:
Nervous system consequences of COVID-19
• 20 Jan 2022 • Vol 375, Issue 6578 • pp. 267-269 • DOI: 10.1126/science.abm2052
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm2052
I really, really, really want more data and info about this. What the risks are, who is most at risk, what the prevalence is, etc. You would think that this would be very important to know before opening everything up and exposing people to this potential issue.
It is not a potential issue but something that is actually going on as we speak.
I meant 'potential' in that not everyone who survives covid will develop it. Not trying to imply that this isn't a serious problem right now.
How come nobody talks about this when we discuss 'living with covid' and removing all restrictions?
I'm not saying that we need to maintain pandemic protocols indefinitely. I'd like to hear a lot more discussion of the problem and to see some plans in place to deal with it though. The current approach of 'fuck it, we're bored of covid' doesn't seem to address this.
Maybe that is the lower quality argument, but the higher quality argument is that we are not going to meaningfully control a virus with R0 of 8 or 10, or whatever, through hygiene-theater.
Ah, understandable, and I agree. But we've never had good plans, so why start now?Maybe that is the lower quality argument, but the higher quality argument is that we are not going to meaningfully control a virus with R0 of 8 or 10, or whatever, through hygiene-theater.
Sure, and I agree that. The argument used doesn't matter.
My concern is . . . why don't we have plans in place for the (seems like large number of) people who will end up with long covid / long lasting health problems? The number of these people won't go down as restrictions are removed.
And here is a chilling review of Long Covid neurologic complications:
Nervous system consequences of COVID-19
• 20 Jan 2022 • Vol 375, Issue 6578 • pp. 267-269 • DOI: 10.1126/science.abm2052
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm2052
I really, really, really want more data and info about this. What the risks are, who is most at risk, what the prevalence is, etc. You would think that this would be very important to know before opening everything up and exposing people to this potential issue.
It is not a potential issue but something that is actually going on as we speak.
I meant 'potential' in that not everyone who survives covid will develop it. Not trying to imply that this isn't a serious problem right now.
How come nobody talks about this when we discuss 'living with covid' and removing all restrictions?
Is the exercise intolerance something that resolves itself over time? Is there any way to treat it?
Is the exercise intolerance something that resolves itself over time? Is there any way to treat it?
Obviously, we have no way to know for sure because the disease has not been around long enough.
Unfortunately, it is rather plausible that the disability will be permanent in many cases.
We get used to things they way they are. Measles is a leading cause of childhood blindness in areas where vaccination rates are low and nutrition is poor. Do we worry about that here? Even in areas where vaccination rates are low? Measles is very contagious.
Canada is not all that much better than the US for chronic issues. We have universal health care, true, but if the resources are not in place or the local medical system is not aware of a situation, it isn't too helpful. Look at the lack of awareness therefore horrible lack of treatment/ for Lyme Disease* until recently. Let's not get too complacent.
* Lyme Disease has gone from almost nonexistent to serious in southeastern Ontario. 2 years ago at a local hiking area near Ottawa (Carp) 50% of ticks sampled carried Lyme. A decade ago that would have been 0% or close to 0%. Easy to treat if caught early, nasty chronic disease if not.
We get used to things they way they are. Measles is a leading cause of childhood blindness in areas where vaccination rates are low and nutrition is poor. Do we worry about that here? Even in areas where vaccination rates are low? Measles is very contagious.
Canada is not all that much better than the US for chronic issues. We have universal health care, true, but if the resources are not in place or the local medical system is not aware of a situation, it isn't too helpful. Look at the lack of awareness therefore horrible lack of treatment/ for Lyme Disease* until recently. Let's not get too complacent.
* Lyme Disease has gone from almost nonexistent to serious in southeastern Ontario. 2 years ago at a local hiking area near Ottawa (Carp) 50% of ticks sampled carried Lyme. A decade ago that would have been 0% or close to 0%. Easy to treat if caught early, nasty chronic disease if not.
There's a difference though, in that Lyme has an easy, and most importantly, cheap treatment. The cost of treating serious long Covid effects will be huge, so there might be some willingness in the Canadian medical system to ignore it as long as possible or downplay it if acknowledged. We just can't afford it.
Oddly, I know a person who got Covid, felt sick enough to go to his doctor, was also diagnosed with Lyme Disease, was treated, recovered from both, and now feels the best they’ve felt in years. Covid ended up being a wonderful thing. I’m sharing this not to say that Covid is good, but to illustrate how poorly recognized Lyme disease is. Recurring symptoms over several years were never diagnosed, but somehow the diagnostic process for Covid finally identified it.
We’re going to need to get better and recognizing and managing the long term effects of these illnesses.
Oddly, I know a person who got Covid, felt sick enough to go to his doctor, was also diagnosed with Lyme Disease, was treated, recovered from both, and now feels the best they’ve felt in years. Covid ended up being a wonderful thing. I’m sharing this not to say that Covid is good, but to illustrate how poorly recognized Lyme disease is. Recurring symptoms over several years were never diagnosed, but somehow the diagnostic process for Covid finally identified it.
We’re going to need to get better and recognizing and managing the long term effects of these illnesses.
Oddly, I know a person who got Covid, felt sick enough to go to his doctor, was also diagnosed with Lyme Disease, was treated, recovered from both, and now feels the best they’ve felt in years. Covid ended up being a wonderful thing. I’m sharing this not to say that Covid is good, but to illustrate how poorly recognized Lyme disease is. Recurring symptoms over several years were never diagnosed, but somehow the diagnostic process for Covid finally identified it.
We’re going to need to get better and recognizing and managing the long term effects of these illnesses.
I know a guy who had a severe reaction to a Covid vaccine that led to hospitalization. Now these are fairly rare, but do occur. He had liver inflammation on labs, which led to imaging, which led to a diagnosis of [early] kidney cancer that would never have been found unless he was hospitalized. So in my book, his Covid vaccine was a smashing success.
Welcome, Millions, to the joys of persistent but vague, mostly 'undiagnosable' autoimmune misery. We who live here already salute you.
At least this will likely force the American medical establishment to get better at dealing with it, b/c they are pretty shit right now.
That small fiber neuropathy is interesting; I wonder if that type of mechanism could account for my development of Reynaud's and persistent torso-based paresthesias, among many other autoimmune troubles that appeared a few years ago.
Both cases make me wonder how often those two individuals went to see their doctors for preventative medicine or screenings? Is a serious case of something the only thing that would have got them in the door?
Nope. Kidney cancers are often "silent" until caught way too late to do anything about it. Because you have a second well functioning kidney, labs won't catch any dysfunction. Often times kidney cancers are only found when someone has blood in their urine or unexplained abdominal pain.
Nope. Kidney cancers are often "silent" until caught way too late to do anything about it. Because you have a second well functioning kidney, labs won't catch any dysfunction. Often times kidney cancers are only found when someone has blood in their urine or unexplained abdominal pain.
Yes. My cousin, late 40s, physically active and healthy, was completely asymptomatic and unaware until he spotted a bit of blood in his urine, went to urgent care for an assumed kidney stone, and found out that he had renal cell carcinoma. He had the kidney surgically removed and was back to running a few weeks later, but the 6-month follow-up revealed aggressive metastases that didn’t respond to treatment. He died just under 1 year after diagnosis.
Nope. Kidney cancers are often "silent" until caught way too late to do anything about it. Because you have a second well functioning kidney, labs won't catch any dysfunction. Often times kidney cancers are only found when someone has blood in their urine or unexplained abdominal pain.
Yes. My cousin, late 40s, physically active and healthy, was completely asymptomatic and unaware until he spotted a bit of blood in his urine, went to urgent care for an assumed kidney stone, and found out that he had renal cell carcinoma. He had the kidney surgically removed and was back to running a few weeks later, but the 6-month follow-up revealed aggressive metastases that didn’t respond to treatment. He died just under 1 year after diagnosis.
So is there any recommended kidney cancer screening (like mammograms, pap smears, or colonoscopies)?
February 9 2022 - 107,623 yay!! 50% down from peak.
Nope. Kidney cancers are often "silent" until caught way too late to do anything about it. Because you have a second well functioning kidney, labs won't catch any dysfunction. Often times kidney cancers are only found when someone has blood in their urine or unexplained abdominal pain.
Perhaps an annual medical checkup should include a visit to an amusement park.Nope. Kidney cancers are often "silent" until caught way too late to do anything about it. Because you have a second well functioning kidney, labs won't catch any dysfunction. Often times kidney cancers are only found when someone has blood in their urine or unexplained abdominal pain.
my sister's 10 lb kidney tumor was discovered the evening after visiting an amusement park, apparently one of the rides ruptured the tumor and she had internal bleeding. she said it was the worst pain in her life, way worse than childbirth. She still had to wait many hours in the emergency room before being seen by a dr.
That is a very strong effect of regular physical activity on Covid outcomes.
If confirmed, the effect of regular physical activity is only rivaled by the effect of vaccines.
Even Moderate Exercise Offers Strong Shield From COVID-19
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/970981
Small steps, strong shield: directly measured, moderate physical activity in 65 361 adults is associated with significant protective effects from severe COVID-19 outcomes
Br J Sports Med. 2022;0:1-10
https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/bjsports/early/2022/02/08/bjsports-2021-105159.full.pdf
That is a very strong effect of regular physical activity on Covid outcomes.
If confirmed, the effect of regular physical activity is only rivaled by the effect of vaccines.
Even Moderate Exercise Offers Strong Shield From COVID-19
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/970981
Small steps, strong shield: directly measured, moderate physical activity in 65 361 adults is associated with significant protective effects from severe COVID-19 outcomes
Br J Sports Med. 2022;0:1-10
https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/bjsports/early/2022/02/08/bjsports-2021-105159.full.pdf
Interesting. As with anything related to public health, I suspect that's part but not all of the story as this study, by nature, cannot be generalized directly to a broader population due to the sample selection (as indicated in the paragraph describing limitations) and doesn't address genetic factors. I expect that research over the next decade or more will reveal a complex interaction between age, physical health, and genetic factors related to cellular viral targets, immune factors, nervous system and mucosal tissue components, and other aspects of host responsiveness to SARS-CoV-2.
Case data is effectively useless at this time. The only data that's now useful is hospitalizations and deaths.
It’s fascinating to me at this point in the pandemic that people are still isolating and masking as part of everyday life. I was totally there for the first year, and despite that we got Covid, it was terrible, and we recovered. But then we got vaccinated and boosted and so did everyone in our family and various circles of friends and work. Now, we’re essentially back to normal and without masks. Soccer games, meals out, shopping, travel, etc. I generally don’t worry about it, but then I see the previous post and wonder if I’m the a-hole now.
It’s fascinating to me at this point in the pandemic that people are still isolating and masking as part of everyday life. I was totally there for the first year, and despite that we got Covid, it was terrible, and we recovered. But then we got vaccinated and boosted and so did everyone in our family and various circles of friends and work. Now, we’re essentially back to normal and without masks. Soccer games, meals out, shopping, travel, etc. I generally don’t worry about it, but then I see the previous post and wonder if I’m the a-hole now.
I am pretty middle of the road and IMO you are only the ahole if you don't (home) test whenever you have a symptom.
We do everything as per normal, only wearing masks if we are in a super crowded area or if someone is visibly sick. We test daily if we have cold/allergy/etc symptoms.
It’s fascinating to me at this point in the pandemic that people are still isolating and masking as part of everyday life. I was totally there for the first year, and despite that we got Covid, it was terrible, and we recovered. But then we got vaccinated and boosted and so did everyone in our family and various circles of friends and work. Now, we’re essentially back to normal and without masks. Soccer games, meals out, shopping, travel, etc. I generally don’t worry about it, but then I see the previous post and wonder if I’m the a-hole now.I've been more cautious than most around us, in an effort to protect my parents. My mom is not vaccinated, partly due to an allergy to shellfish which is supposedly a contraindication to at least one vaccine formulation, but mostly due to Fox "News" propaganda, honestly. Dad, 91 and beginning to slow down, got a single J&J shot AFAIK. It drives me bonkers that she will risk both their lives because of nonsense like "Bill Gates put microchips in the vaccines to track us." Really, mom, you believe that? Why does he even care? Why do you care?
We're more cautious than most due to having elderly parents, but I'm just so tired of everyone acting like the whole thing is suddenly over. I mean, I don't know that everyone still has to be wearing masks all the time like I do, but can't people at least be courteous in crowded indoor spaces? Or stay home with their germs? Nope. And our government (well, one side anyway) can even be bothered anymore to help its citizens. I don't fear covid per se. I'd probably be fine with the initial infection. But I don't want to risk long covid, and neither do I want to risk my elderly friends and family. It isn't over. Not by a long shot and people/governments need to stop acting like it is. Ok, rant over.