Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?

[Poundwise]

Yeah, voter fraud nonsense is clearly just an excuse for Trump to eventually accept defeat without having to admit it to himself that he is a "loser". Irrespective of whether voter ID laws are seen as safeguarding voting, or a suppression tactic, the South has a long history of voter intimidation, which is itself a way of defrauding the electorate. How so? By suggesting that white supremacist leaders are legitimate authorities when a significant fraction of the electorate was prevented from voting. Poll taxes, state-sanctioned domestic terrorism, etc. This was done by Democrats until the parties switched places in maintaining the racial hegemony of the South, and for the last 50 years has been done by Republicans. Though the more egregious examples have stopped (poll taxes, terrorism), having the same party that promoted those tactics for half a century suddenly so concerned about the voting process is en face ridiculous.

The barrier that Voter ID laws present are surprisingly high. What poor person has the ability to run back and forth several times (usually by bus) to the DMV, or the time to fix a complicated situation?  I have a friend who faced this very situation... his father was evicted at one point and the kids' stuff was thrown out, including all documentation like birth certificates.  So it got very involved for him to get  an ID, especially as he doesn't have a car, printer, or any internet except on his phone.  Other stories here: https://www.voteriders.org/?s=voter+id+story

[talltexan]

Trump was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize, and I'd be fine with him receiving it.

Trump needs to have a story about why he is still a "winner", and I am happy for him to have one. All I ask is that--on Jan. 21--someone else is President. And I would give up on these trivia to make that happen.

[Kris]

Trump was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize, and I'd be fine with him receiving it.

Trump needs to have a story about why he is still a "winner", and I am happy for him to have one. All I ask is that--on Jan. 21--someone else is President. And I would give up on these trivia to make that happen.

Sure, I’d be happy to hand him a pacifier, too. Trouble is, the Nobel committee would never give it to such a horrible person.

[jrhampt]

Maybe the Noble Committee would, though ;-).  I hear he was actually nominated for the Noble Prize.

[DoubleDown]

...Biden's biggest challenge may be to keep his emotions in check and not punch him on live tv or let things drift into playground name-calling.

Now that I see this written, I think if Biden waited for Trump to say something offensive (inevitable) and walked up to Trump and punched him in the face on live TV, Biden would win even more votes than he would otherwise. It would go down in news/history as one of the most seminal moments ever. Biden would endear himself even more to people like me that can't stand Trump; he would not alienate those that are already for him and against Trump, even if they don't want to see him resort to violence; he would probably win over a significant number of pro-Trumpers that would admire his balls for doing so; he'd win over people who might be inclined to vote for Biden but are concerned he's too much of an old, soft, leftist liberal; and he'd win over all the people who don't give a f*** and just want reality TV, Kanye West, and anarchy to reign.

This is a great strategy, I'm calling the Biden campaign now!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

...Biden's biggest challenge may be to keep his emotions in check and not punch him on live tv or let things drift into playground name-calling.

Now that I see this written, I think if Biden waited for Trump to say something offensive (inevitable) and walked up to Trump and punched him in the face on live TV, Biden would win even more votes than he would otherwise. It would go down in news/history as one of the most seminal moments ever. Biden would endear himself even more to people like me that can't stand Trump; he would not alienate those that are already for him and against Trump, even if they don't want to see him resort to violence; he would probably win over a significant number of pro-Trumpers that would admire his balls for doing so; he'd win over people who might be inclined to vote for Biden but are concerned he's too much of an old, soft, leftist liberal; and he'd win over all the people who don't give a f*** and just want reality TV, Kanye West, and anarchy to reign.

This is a great strategy, I'm calling the Biden campaign now!

Not that I'm endorsing this, but I'd love to see Trump's toupee fly off and him crying like a baby with no one rushing to his side - after all the crap he's done to other people (not the least of which are his family and this country).  Karma baby.

[BicycleB]

I recall that when Biden said he'd like to take Trump behind the woodshed, Trump said nothing.

If Biden hit him, he might well cower. The debate could then be shown with "Bam!" and "Pow!" like an original Batman episode.

[nereo]

Not that I'm endorsing this, but I'd love to see Trump's toupee fly off and him crying like a baby with no one rushing to his side - after all the crap he's done to other people (not the least of which are his family and this country).  Karma baby.

I think that mess of chemically treated and dyed hair is actually Trump's own. He's very proud of it - but why I can't really fathom.

As much as I dislike Trump, I don't condone violence in politics. If we encourage assault in the presidential race, what hope have we of ever working together?

[Barbaebigode]

Maybe the Noble Committee would, though ;-).  I hear he was actually nominated for the Noble Prize.

As far as I understand any politician can name any other politician in the world to get the Nobel Peace Prize. It's not a high bar.

[GuitarStv]

Not that I'm endorsing this, but I'd love to see Trump's toupee fly off and him crying like a baby with no one rushing to his side - after all the crap he's done to other people (not the least of which are his family and this country).  Karma baby.

I think that mess of chemically treated and dyed hair is actually Trump's own. He's very proud of it - but why I can't really fathom.

As much as I dislike Trump, I don't condone violence in politics. If we encourage assault in the presidential race, what hope have we of ever working together?

Agreed on both points.

Most toupees look a lot better than Trump's combover.  No way that hair is fake.

If Biden can't beat Trump simply by providing better ideas and a voice that isn't constantly lying, then America fully deserves four more years of the worst president in history.

[caracarn]

Not that I'm endorsing this, but I'd love to see Trump's toupee fly off and him crying like a baby with no one rushing to his side - after all the crap he's done to other people (not the least of which are his family and this country).  Karma baby.

I think that mess of chemically treated and dyed hair is actually Trump's own. He's very proud of it - but why I can't really fathom.

As much as I dislike Trump, I don't condone violence in politics. If we encourage assault in the presidential race, what hope have we of ever working together?

Agreed on both points.

Most toupees look a lot better than Trump's combover.  No way that hair is fake.

If Biden can't beat Trump simply by providing better ideas and a voice that isn't constantly lying, then America fully deserves four more years of the worst president in history.

A truer statement was never written. 

[YttriumNitrate]

Based on the current trends, it looks like India will pass the US in number of Covid19 infections in about a month. Currently India is 1.4 million behind the US and gaining at a rate of about 60,000 per day. Obviously India has a much larger population, but with India passing the US right at the height of the campaign, I would expect some groups to make a big deal of the the U.S. moving down to the #2 spot. Also, unemployment in the U.S. has also dropped almost 50% in the last six months.

If we get another good jobs number in October, and the infection rates continue to drop, the incumbents will be able to make a good case that things are improving and that could really help their election prospects.

[sherr]

Based on the current trends, it looks like India will pass the US in number of Covid19 infections in about a month. Currently India is 1.4 million behind the US and gaining at a rate of about 60,000 per day. Obviously India has a much larger population, but with India passing the US right at the height of the campaign, I would expect some groups to make a big deal of the the U.S. moving down to the #2 spot. Also, unemployment in the U.S. has also dropped almost 50% in the last six months.

If we get another good jobs number in October, and the infection rates continue to drop, the incumbents will be able to make a good case that things are improving and that could really help their election prospects.

USA! USA! USA! Only second worst in the world! And never mind per-capita! Re-elect the people who made it happen!

[Samuel]

Trump has a big weight advantage and is steadier on his feet. Biden may get in one lick but then Trump would just shove him over. 

Then he'd run that footage under the "I'm Donald Trump and I approve this message" portion of every ad.

[Kris]

Trump has a big weight advantage and is steadier on his feet. Biden may get in one lick but then Trump would just shove him over. 

Then he'd run that footage under the "I'm Donald Trump and I approve this message" portion of every ad.

Lol I’m sorry, but Trump has trouble with slightly-inclined ramps. Plus he wears lifts on his shoes that cause him to tilt forward even when standing up straight. I’ll give you the weight advantage, but no way is he steadier on his feet.

[GuitarStv]

The current state of US politics . . . now we're arguing about which feeble octogenarian has the edge in a fist fight, and which rabid fan base would approve more of a pathetic show of 'strength'.  :P

[HPstache]

Based on the current trends, it looks like India will pass the US in number of Covid19 infections in about a month. Currently India is 1.4 million behind the US and gaining at a rate of about 60,000 per day. Obviously India has a much larger population, but with India passing the US right at the height of the campaign, I would expect some groups to make a big deal of the the U.S. moving down to the #2 spot. Also, unemployment in the U.S. has also dropped almost 50% in the last six months.

If we get another good jobs number in October, and the infection rates continue to drop, the incumbents will be able to make a good case that things are improving and that could really help their election prospects.

USA! USA! USA! Only second worst in the world! And never mind per-capita! Re-elect the people who made it happen!

We've also performed per capita 7X the tests that India has.

[nereo]

Based on the current trends, it looks like India will pass the US in number of Covid19 infections in about a month. Currently India is 1.4 million behind the US and gaining at a rate of about 60,000 per day. Obviously India has a much larger population, but with India passing the US right at the height of the campaign, I would expect some groups to make a big deal of the the U.S. moving down to the #2 spot. Also, unemployment in the U.S. has also dropped almost 50% in the last six months.

If we get another good jobs number in October, and the infection rates continue to drop, the incumbents will be able to make a good case that things are improving and that could really help their election prospects.

USA! USA! USA! Only second worst in the world! And never mind per-capita! Re-elect the people who made it happen!

We've also performed per capita 7X the tests that India has.

- and according to data from the World Bank, India spends under $100USD per capita on health care, whereas the US spent $10,200 in 2017 (more than 100 fold).

Somehow we keep managing to have worse health outcomes relative to other wealthy nations despite spending 2-3x as much per person on health care.  But single-payer healthcare....no, we can't afford that!  /s.

[talltexan]

Maybe the Noble Committee would, though ;-).  I hear he was actually nominated for the Noble Prize.

Not every Nobel Peace prize was deserved.

Frankly, Biden would deserve a NPP for unseating Trump.

[jim555]

I think Hillary should have turned around and punched him in the face when he was creeping up on her in that debate.

[OzzieandHarriet]

Not that I'm endorsing this, but I'd love to see Trump's toupee fly off and him crying like a baby with no one rushing to his side - after all the crap he's done to other people (not the least of which are his family and this country).  Karma baby.

I think that mess of chemically treated and dyed hair is actually Trump's own. He's very proud of it - but why I can't really fathom.

According to Michael Cohen:

The mystery of Trump’s hair


Trump’s famously weird hairstyle is the twisted result of botched scalp surgery and a complex triple-combover, Cohen claims.

Trump underwent a disfiguring hair-implant operation in the 1980s that left unsightly scars on the top of Trump’s head, Cohen says.

Trump’s hair is so long that when it’s not piled on top of his head, it hangs down below his shoulder on the right side, Cohen says. The operation to make it stand up involves a ton of hair product and a triple fold.

“The three-step procedure required a flop up of the hair from the back of his head, followed by the flip of the resulting overhang on the back of his pate, and then the flap of his combover on the right side, providing three layers of thinly disguised balding-male insecurity,” Cohen writes.

From here (also reported elsewhere): https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wxqavn/gangsters-and-golden-showers-10-of-the-wildest-stories-from-michael-cohens-new-trump-tell-all

[nereo]

When it comes down to Trump or Cohen, I honestly don't know who to believe.

[sherr]

Based on the current trends, it looks like India will pass the US in number of Covid19 infections in about a month. Currently India is 1.4 million behind the US and gaining at a rate of about 60,000 per day. Obviously India has a much larger population, but with India passing the US right at the height of the campaign, I would expect some groups to make a big deal of the the U.S. moving down to the #2 spot. Also, unemployment in the U.S. has also dropped almost 50% in the last six months.

If we get another good jobs number in October, and the infection rates continue to drop, the incumbents will be able to make a good case that things are improving and that could really help their election prospects.

USA! USA! USA! Only second worst in the world! And never mind per-capita! Re-elect the people who made it happen!

We've also performed per capita 7X the tests that India has.

Ha-HA, even better! That stupid developing country might actually have more cases today, not just in the near future! So we might already only be second worst in the world!

USA! USA! USA! USA! Re-elect the people who made it happen!

[Kris]

The current state of US politics . . . now we're arguing about which feeble octogenarian has the edge in a fist fight, and which rabid fan base would approve more of a pathetic show of 'strength'.  :P

I mean, septuagenarians, but yeah, point taken.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

RGB has died. How does this change things?

[Kris]

RGB has died. How does this change things?

Trumpists will be energized. McConnell will shove through a nominee, hell or high water.

[wenchsenior]

Absolutely. Roe v Wade will go down for sure now.   What a piece of shit year this is turning out to be.

[Kris]

Mitch McConnell was very adamant that a new Supreme Court Justice not be picked by Obama toward the end of his presidency, since the election cycle was almost over. The reasoning was that the new president deserved to appoint the justice. This was after Scalia died.

I wonder if he will do the same here.

No chance in hell.

[HPstache]

Mitch McConnell was very adamant that a new Supreme Court Justice not be picked by Obama toward the end of his presidency, since the election cycle was almost over. The reasoning was that the new president deserved to appoint the justice. This was after Scalia died.

I wonder if he will do the same here.

I'm going to go out on a real limb here and say probably not.  Republicans have had nominees ready to go just in case a SCJ "retired"....

[marty998]

The current state of US politics . . . now we're arguing about which feeble octogenarian has the edge in a fist fight, and which rabid fan base would approve more of a pathetic show of 'strength'.  :P

I mean, septuagenarians, but yeah, point taken.

Won’t happen. Donald will need to forfeit on account of having bone spurs in his feet.

[GuitarStv]

RGB has died. How does this change things?

Holy fuck.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

McConnell reiterated Trump's nominee would get a vote. I am genuinely just a little bit surprised. Not because I thought the Republicans would be consistent or anything. Just because they really like to hold the carrot up of Supreme Court justices to be picked IF they are elected (I'm very familiar with this as a former hardcore Republican who was strung along by this). Maybe he figures getting another justice will energize the base *shrugs*

[bacchi]

McConnell reiterated Trump's nominee would get a vote. I am genuinely just a little bit surprised. Not because I thought the Republicans would be consistent or anything. Just because they really like to hold the carrot up of Supreme Court justices to be picked IF they are elected (I'm very familiar with this as a former hardcore Republican who was strung along by this). Maybe he figures getting another justice will energize the base *shrugs*

Right. Does this help Trump or hinder him?

If a conservative SCJ is brought up before the election, then voting for Trump is not as important. A conservative court is already assured.

If anything, it might energize the Democrats more, seeing as how the Senate needs to flip.

[John Galt incarnate!]

Mitch McConnell was very adamant that a new Supreme Court Justice not be picked by Obama toward the end of his presidency, since the election cycle was almost over. The reasoning was that the new president deserved to appoint the justice. This was after Scalia died.

I wonder if he will do the same here.

I would argue that in  the  situation of a Supreme Court justice's death close to a presidential election,  the Senate majority ought to consent  to  the  president's nominee (of course they must be vetted and qualified) if the Senate majority and the president are of the same party for the reasons that the president  has been  legitimately elected to exercise the  power of choosing nominees and the Senate majority to exercise its power of advice and consent.


Entities that have  and legitimately exercise  constitutional power are  a consequence of elections.

[WhiteTrashCash]

I'm starting to understand the Portland rioters now after this latest news.

[bacchi]

McConnell, by pushing for a vote before the election, would put a handful of Senators at-risk of losing.

Collins? Gardner? No way they want a vote before the election. Thom Tillis? He's already down. He doesn't want to energize the Democrats any more.

Murkowski has already stated that she won't vote before the inauguration. Other defections could be Romney or McSally. Does she want to be bounced this early in her career?

After the election is another story. Then it's a race against time if the Senate/Presidency is lost.

[sixwings]

possibly, republicans can also use an open supreme court seat to vote for trump and down ballot senators, it's a risk though.

[MilesTeg]

RGB has died. How does this change things?

This turn of events will get Trump elected. The right wing factions want the SC seat and they will put up with any insanity Trump comes up with to assure it.

No chance Trump loses now.

Fuck

[Abe]

RGB has died. How does this change things?

This turn of events will get Trump elected. The right wing factions want the SC seat and they will put up with any insanity Trump comes up with to assure it.

No chance Trump loses now.

Fuck

I agree. Trump will now likely win because never-Trumpers will suddenly be doing calisthenics to explain why this is more important than Trump's many failings. He is but the vessel to their holy mission of a corporate hegemony. Honestly I don't think another conservative Justice will change much, since the court has been consolidating corporate control of the US for years. Once a vaccine comes out, the corporations will get the economy re-started and Biden will likely be a footnote. I wonder if Pence will run in 2024 on the economy's recovery during Trump's second term.

[shuffler]

RGB has died. How does this change things?

This turn of events will get Trump elected. The right wing factions want the SC seat and they will put up with any insanity Trump comes up with to assure it.

No chance Trump loses now.

Fuck

Isn't that already "priced in"?
I mean, before today's news, it already seemed pretty likely that RBG (RIP) wouldn't be able to serve 4 more years due to her health conditions.  I.e. that the winner of the coming election would be the one to nominate to fill her probable vacancy.

But yes.  Fuck.

[Abe]

RGB has died. How does this change things?

This turn of events will get Trump elected. The right wing factions want the SC seat and they will put up with any insanity Trump comes up with to assure it.

No chance Trump loses now.

Fuck

Isn't that already "priced in"?
I mean, before today's news, it already seemed pretty likely that RBG (RIP) wouldn't be able to serve 4 more years due to her health conditions.  I.e. that the winner of the coming election would be the one to nominate to fill her probable vacancy.

But yes.  Fuck.

Yeah, but now there's blood in the water so the sharks are going to be in a frenzy.

[YttriumNitrate]

Looking at this from the other perspective, if Biden were to float a list of potential supreme court nominees to entice voters the way Trump did last election cycle, his nominees would almost certainly have to be black and female. There's nobody in the right age range at the appellate level that fits those criteria, so Ketanji Brown Jackson of the district of DC is probably the odds on favorite. She has turned over a few of Trump's executive orders, so that would help rally the base, but it is unclear how much that would help in the key battleground states.

[jim555]

The seat is already a done deal (Mitch WILL seat a Repub) so I don't know why people are acting like the election matters.  Roe v Wade is over.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

I dunno. I feel like you guys are more confident in Republicans actually putting ideology first than I am. In my opinion, very few politicians on either side truly act out as if their ideology is as important as they make it out to be. Ideology takes a back seat to the political pragmatism of getting elected or maintaining power. Murkowski has already said she won't vote on a justice. All that is needed is another 3 Republican senators to do this, and it's not going to happen. After thinking about it, McConnell had to say he would vote on it or it would look like he really didn't want to replace the seat. However, I would not be surprised if "somehow" it didn't end up happening.  If Republicans were truly focused on making the longest term, biggest ideological change, they would sacrifice even their seats in the Senate for a change in the Supreme Court balance of power. I'm not convinced they will. I'm not saying it's a done deal either way, just that I think you guys are jumping the gun a bit. A conservative replacement of RBG is hardly a done deal.

[MasterStache]

McConnell, by pushing for a vote before the election, would put a handful of Senators at-risk of losing.

Collins? Gardner? No way they want a vote before the election. Thom Tillis? He's already down. He doesn't want to energize the Democrats any more.

Murkowski has already stated that she won't vote before the inauguration. Other defections could be Romney or McSally. Does she want to be bounced this early in her career?

After the election is another story. Then it's a race against time if the Senate/Presidency is lost.

I think Romney, Murkowski and Collins are likely to not cast a vote. Pence would be the tie breaker of course so a confirmation would happen. The others listed all likely have further political career aspirations so therefore would likely not dare vote against the Führer. I hope I am wrong.

[sixwings]

McConnell, by pushing for a vote before the election, would put a handful of Senators at-risk of losing.

Collins? Gardner? No way they want a vote before the election. Thom Tillis? He's already down. He doesn't want to energize the Democrats any more.

Murkowski has already stated that she won't vote before the inauguration. Other defections could be Romney or McSally. Does she want to be bounced this early in her career?

After the election is another story. Then it's a race against time if the Senate/Presidency is lost.

I think Romney, Murkowski and Collins are likely to not cast a vote. Pence would be the tie breaker of course so a confirmation would happen. The others listed all likely have further political career aspirations so therefore would likely not dare vote against the Führer. I hope I am wrong.

Grassley has said he won't vote to confirm a justice and said there can't be two different rules for democrat vs republican presidents. But lol at him maintaining that.

[wenchsenior]

I'm just going to say 2 unpopular things to get them off my chest.

1) Everyone's lauding RBG, but it was the height of narcissism for her to refuse to retire during Obama's second term.  Doesn't change her accomplishments, but it was very. bad. decision.

And 2) Part of me just wants Roe v Wade overturned so that the GOP can stop using it as a rallying cry for all the religious wingnuts. And also so that liberals will maybe finally catch a goddamn clue and learn that they need to vote based on the power to appoint judges and justices, like the GOP base does. 

[bacchi]

I'm just going to say 2 unpopular things to get them off my chest.

1) Everyone's lauding RBG, but it was the height of narcissism for her to refuse to retire during Obama's second term.  Doesn't change her accomplishments, but it was very. bad. decision.

Agreed. She had 8 years to do so. The Democrats held 55+ seats around 2010.

And 2) Part of me just wants Roe v Wade overturned so that the GOP can stop using it as a rallying cry for all the religious wingnuts. And also so that liberals will maybe finally catch a goddamn clue and learn that they need to vote based on the power to appoint judges and justices, like the GOP base does.

Liberals thought that during Reagan's Presidency too. The reality is that, after years of pro-corporate/pro-evangelical decisions, society shifts right and thinks it's the new "normal."

[wenchsenior]

And 2) Part of me just wants Roe v Wade overturned so that the GOP can stop using it as a rallying cry for all the religious wingnuts. And also so that liberals will maybe finally catch a goddamn clue and learn that they need to vote based on the power to appoint judges and justices, like the GOP base does.

Interesting point. I wonder if less people would vote republican if abortion was illegal. I'm sure there are quite a few single issue voters, where their single issue is abortion.

I dislike your choice of words of pro life supporters. Being against abortion doesn't require religion.

True, but I doubt that's a big enough group of voters to be statistically meaningful.  I suspect the venn diagram overlap between "religious" and "opposes abortion" and "votes only GOP" is very large, so it is seems to be the primary stick/carrot the GOP uses to motivate the religious vote. 

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

And 2) Part of me just wants Roe v Wade overturned so that the GOP can stop using it as a rallying cry for all the religious wingnuts. And also so that liberals will maybe finally catch a goddamn clue and learn that they need to vote based on the power to appoint judges and justices, like the GOP base does.

Interesting point. I wonder if less people would vote republican if abortion was illegal. I'm sure there are quite a few single issue voters, where their single issue is abortion.

I dislike your choice of words of pro life supporters. Being against abortion doesn't require religion.

True, but I doubt that's a big enough group of voters to be statistically meaningful.  I suspect the venn diagram overlap between "religious" and "opposes abortion" and "votes only GOP" is very large, so it is seems to be the primary stick/carrot the GOP uses to motivate the religious vote.

The two biggest single issues for that are abortion and gun rights. Both are, of course, heavily influenced by the Supreme Court.