Poll

Who do you think will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Donald Trump
105 (29.6%)
Joe Biden
230 (64.8%)
3rd-Party Candidate or Black Swan Event (e.g., Trump or Biden dies)
20 (5.6%)

Total Members Voted: 353

Author Topic: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?  (Read 138804 times)

jrhampt

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #800 on: October 08, 2020, 09:53:56 AM »
It doesn't matter how true any of it is??  Of course it matters.  Doesn't change the outcome, but the truth does matter.

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #801 on: October 08, 2020, 09:59:54 AM »
It doesn't matter how true any of it is??  Of course it matters.  Doesn't change the outcome, but the truth does matter.

You're highlighting a fundamental item of import here.  To most Trump supporters, reality and truth don't matter at all.  That's why they're Trump supporters.

Just Joe

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #802 on: October 08, 2020, 10:12:18 AM »
Its hugely beneficial to remove advertising from daily life. Mentally freeing. Same goes for social media. Sometimes socially isolating too but its a price worth paying IMHO.

The truth matters b/c when you have a trash candidate backed by a (currently) trash political party they begin impacting one's life directly.

ACA, gerrymandering, LGTBQ, wars/military service, economy, etc. etc.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2020, 10:15:55 AM by Just Joe »

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #803 on: October 08, 2020, 10:16:29 AM »
Its hugely beneficial to remove advertising from daily life. Mentally freeing. Same goes for social media. Sometimes socially isolating too but its a price worth paying IMHO.

Yep. Adblocker and noscript FTW.

wenchsenior

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #804 on: October 08, 2020, 10:28:03 AM »
The reality is Trump is going to lose because Trump is a trash candidate.  All the stuff about voter fraud and migrants changing America is just waaa waaa waaa fanboy bellyaching from people who can’t accept he’s trash.

The reality is Clinton lost because Clinton was a trash candidate.  All the...

You can fill in the blanks.  Doesn’t matter how true any of it is.  It’s immaterial

As someone who is trained as a scientist, statements like this fill me with equal parts rage and despair.  No wonder our country is so fucked.

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #805 on: October 08, 2020, 11:47:43 AM »
You're highlighting a fundamental item of import here.  To most Trump supporters, reality and truth don't matter at all.  That's why they're Trump supporters.

It doesn't matter how true any of it is??  Of course it matters.  Doesn't change the outcome, but the truth does matter.

As someone who is trained as a scientist, statements like this fill me with equal parts rage and despair.  No wonder our country is so fucked.

These quotes really highlight the fundamental disconnect.  Is that you can't accept uncomfortable reality.  You have taken one comment out of context and twisted it.

It's TRUE the earth is round
It's TRUE that the earth is warming
It's TRUE the marianas trench is the deepest part of the ocean
It's TRUE that the Trump campaign colluded with Russian agents

None of that is material at all to the discussion.  Not my fault you guys can't see the difference between truth and materiality, and want to paint me as something I am not.   

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #806 on: October 08, 2020, 11:59:49 AM »

You have taken one comment out of context and twisted it.

Which comment are you referring to?

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #807 on: October 08, 2020, 12:03:00 PM »
The recent commentary here is pretty breathtaking.

MA is forecast to go to Biden by over 30 points.  Do you think the yardsigns out there accurately represent that?

Trump Crazies are going off about fraud, it's true and it's shameful, but are there anymore of them than Clinton supports who still allege that Trump stole the election?

Complete hyperpartisan blindness going on here...

The conversation is still revolving around this original comment and followups, yes?

Then of course whether these things are true is material to the conversation. If they're true then it's not "complete hyperpartisan blindness", it's the truth.

If that's not what we're talking about then what are we talking about?

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #808 on: October 08, 2020, 08:32:05 PM »
I think it's fair to say that a lot of people think Trump cheated to win in 2016, just like he tried to cheat in 2020 (Ukraine, which he was impeached for).  If you cheat to win, is it a legitimate win?  We'll never know if he could have won without cheating.  That said, he won, and I accept the results.  I'm not happy about them, but I accept them.

I've been watching this back-and-forth from the sidelines, and I think Trump continues a trend that had already been in place:

  • George H.W. Bush was considered a legitimate President, but the context for that was he was a Republican serving at a time when the Democrats had controlled the House for more than thirty years
  • Bill Clinton's election was treated as illegitimate by Republicans because of the Perot factor. He then acted not Presidential in a whole series of ways, culminating in the Lewinsky Affair, which made him the first President to be impeached in more than a century.
  • George W. Bush won two razor-thin elections
  • Barack Obama was hamstrung by the remarkably durable Tea Party resistance
  • Trump and Russia

So it seems like illegitimate P's are the norm.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #809 on: October 09, 2020, 04:28:11 AM »
I’ve got a slightly different take.
When I hear the term “illegitimate’ thrown around in politics I typically write it off a hyperbole. Same as those bumper stickers “Not My President” which change sides every decade or so.

I agree with talltexan’s list to a point As reasons why people claimed “he’s not my president” but in the end I think most were saying it to express their dissatisfaction and resistance to a particular president, not because they thought (for example) that Clinton’s win via Perot’s participation somehow was against the rules.

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #810 on: October 09, 2020, 07:41:14 AM »
Everyone is influenced by advertisments and propaganda to some degree.  That's why they are used extensively.  Overwhelmingly people underestimate how much influence targeted marketing has on their actions - which helps to explain why organizations are willing to pay huge sums of money to use them.

I think the persuadability/manipulability of the average person is overestimated.  I won't go so far as to say marketing and advertisements don't work (that would be ridiculous).

No amount of Chevy commercials is going to convince the 3rd generation Ford owner to switch trucks.  His family has been driving Fords on the family farm and that's that.

Bud Light drinkers don't go for a taste of Coors just because they had a snazzy Super Bowl commercial

Anyone who's been a part of a big process change knows how hard it is for people to change behavior.

If people were easily manipulated, you'd think Public Health England's banning of junk food ads and other nudge tactics would have made a dent in UK obesity.  It hasn't.

I think democratic voters showed resistance to ads when Bloomberg spent a billion dollars, and only got a handful of votes (from a broken machine, is what I suspect!)

If people were so easily manipulated, would we have laughable quotes from leading politicians, like Romney's 47% and Clinton's deplorables?

I think this thread is an indication of how hard it is to persuade people.

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #811 on: October 09, 2020, 07:48:07 AM »
The recent commentary here is pretty breathtaking.

MA is forecast to go to Biden by over 30 points.  Do you think the yardsigns out there accurately represent that?

Trump Crazies are going off about fraud, it's true and it's shameful, but are there anymore of them than Clinton supports who still allege that Trump stole the election?

Complete hyperpartisan blindness going on here...

The conversation is still revolving around this original comment and followups, yes?

Then of course whether these things are true is material to the conversation. If they're true then it's not "complete hyperpartisan blindness", it's the truth.

If that's not what we're talking about then what are we talking about?

Well we've already demonstrated with facts and evidence that a substantial minority of Clinton voters rejected the election results.

We've also established that the rejection predated any Russia investigation.

So it's hard to conclude that democratic rejection of Trump's legitimacy is based in fact, other than the happy accident that an excuse came along well after the rejection was already in place.

You've gone from "no one thinks the election was stolen" to "well, yes, of course, but they have good reason to think that" but you still can't accept the fact that this is pure rage machine of the same filthy type that republicans put out.  Both party machines are absolute filth and it sickens me to my core when I see the Trump yahoos running around with their blinders on, and it saddens me that otherwise good people who support democratic and liberal norms can't see the stench on the democratic side.

For the record early voting is just started in my state, and I am voting big D at the top of the ballot and against Trump, so I despise the implications above that I'm a Trump supporter.

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #812 on: October 09, 2020, 08:07:24 AM »
Well we've already demonstrated with facts and evidence that a substantial minority of Clinton voters rejected the election results.

We've also established that the rejection predated any Russia investigation.

So it's hard to conclude that democratic rejection of Trump's legitimacy is based in fact, other than the happy accident that an excuse came along well after the rejection was already in place.

You've gone from "no one thinks the election was stolen" to "well, yes, of course, but they have good reason to think that" but you still can't accept the fact that this is pure rage machine of the same filthy type that republicans put out.  Both party machines are absolute filth and it sickens me to my core when I see the Trump yahoos running around with their blinders on, and it saddens me that otherwise good people who support democratic and liberal norms can't see the stench on the democratic side.

This is tiring. This will be my last response. You're still ignoring everything everyone has said about what people mean when they say that.

We all knew exactly who Trump was before the official results of the Mueller investigation or the Senate Intelligence Committee or anything else came back. All the intelligence agencies were saying at the time that Russia was meddling in the election. Trump asked Russia to release the hacked DNC emails on national TV before the election. NC Republicans had been actively engaging in unconstitutional racial gerrymandering and voter suppression and everyone knew it at the time. Et cetera.

If all the intelligence agencies are telling you that Russia is meddling in the election, then believing that Russia is meddling in the election is not "pure rage machine filth manufactured by the DNC". It's the truth, and it was known to be the truth at the time, and of course that is material to this conversation.

But you're right, this conversation does demonstrate how hard it is to persuade people.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #813 on: October 09, 2020, 08:16:13 AM »
Everyone is influenced by advertisments and propaganda to some degree.  That's why they are used extensively.  Overwhelmingly people underestimate how much influence targeted marketing has on their actions - which helps to explain why organizations are willing to pay huge sums of money to use them.

I think the persuadability/manipulability of the average person is overestimated.  I won't go so far as to say marketing and advertisements don't work (that would be ridiculous).

No amount of Chevy commercials is going to convince the 3rd generation Ford owner to switch trucks.  His family has been driving Fords on the family farm and that's that.

Bud Light drinkers don't go for a taste of Coors just because they had a snazzy Super Bowl commercial

Anyone who's been a part of a big process change knows how hard it is for people to change behavior.
If people were easily manipulated, you'd think Public Health England's banning of junk food ads and other nudge tactics would have made a dent in UK obesity.  It hasn't.

I think democratic voters showed resistance to ads when Bloomberg spent a billion dollars, and only got a handful of votes (from a broken machine, is what I suspect!)

If people were so easily manipulated, would we have laughable quotes from leading politicians, like Romney's 47% and Clinton's deplorables?

I think this thread is an indication of how hard it is to persuade people.

Do you honestly not see how all of your examples support the notion that people are influenced by marketing?
As you said, Ford drivers can't be convinced to switch to Chevy.  In the industry that's called "Brand Loyalty."  Ford isn't sitting idly by in the marketing department. A large chunk of a company's advertising is aimed at retaining existing customers.

There's another well known phenomenon around soft drinks; Coca-cola is the leading soft drink and people are very particular about 'Coke vs. Pepsi' even though in double-blind taste tests Pepsi often wins.

Governmental advertising bans are an excellent example, though not for the reasons you gave. We first saw their impact with underage smoking rate. In places where advertising to children was curtailed and anti-smoking campaigns were launched, smoking went down.  There's also a well known correlation between obesity and access to sugary drinks.

The key message here is that adverts and propaganda rarely exist in a vacuum.  There is almost always multiple brands or messages fighting for dominance.  In spaces where there is only one (N. Korea comes to mind) it's astounding how much penetration even outlandish claims can have.  As an example, the reason why political ads for Bloomberg didn't translate into a avalanche of votes for Mike is because those ads were mixed into a sea of ads and messages also vying for people's votes.  Trump, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobouchar and others were all running their own ads.  Despite skipping the first four states Bloomberg got 2.4MM votes (not "a handful") - beating out Warren in those races despite his late start.  Given the saturation of the race one could argue that Bloomberg's ad blitz was remarkably effective.

Your entire premise that advertising isn't terribly effective would mean that companies and campaigns waste hundreds-of-billions annually unnecessarily. If that were the case, don't you think most of them would have caught on and realized "hey, if we cut our advertising budget we don't lose much in profits!?"


talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #814 on: October 09, 2020, 01:20:58 PM »
Certain ones have: I've never seen an ad for Google (but I have seen them advertise their Google + debacle).

I've never seen an ad for Tesla.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #815 on: October 10, 2020, 12:24:15 AM »
I think it's fair to say that a lot of people think Trump cheated to win in 2016, just like he tried to cheat in 2020 (Ukraine, which he was impeached for).  If you cheat to win, is it a legitimate win?  We'll never know if he could have won without cheating.  That said, he won, and I accept the results.  I'm not happy about them, but I accept them.

I've been watching this back-and-forth from the sidelines, and I think Trump continues a trend that had already been in place:

  • George H.W. Bush was considered a legitimate President, but the context for that was he was a Republican serving at a time when the Democrats had controlled the House for more than thirty years
  • Bill Clinton's election was treated as illegitimate by Republicans because of the Perot factor. He then acted not Presidential in a whole series of ways, culminating in the Lewinsky Affair, which made him the first President to be impeached in more than a century.
  • George W. Bush won two razor-thin elections
  • Barack Obama was hamstrung by the remarkably durable Tea Party resistance
  • Trump and Russia

So it seems like illegitimate P's are the norm.

Ya'll are making me grudgingly notice that not everyone draws the line of "legitimacy" the same way I do. Good on ya, then.

I guess it's a reasonable argument that there's always someone who feels that a President is illegitimate. But I think that there's a level of acceptance of the system by candidates that is normally adhered to that is very definitely not being adhered to right now. You might say the system is not being accepted by the candidate as legitimate, and if he "wins" by manipulating it unfairly in ways beyond other candidates, he would be illegitimate in a way others have not been.

Clinton? I know there were some people upset by him for a long time but attributed it to personal issues. I never understood why Dems didn't acknowledge Perot's impact. Nonetheless, the two party system is a people's choice, not constitutional requirement, and many founders were against it; seems unreasonable to complain. Anyway, no one claimed they would ignore election results. No interference by foreigners at a candidate's request. No inciting of violence by supporters.

Bush 43? I protested to count all the votes and feel to this day the Supremes interfered unjustly, changing the result. Brooks Brothers riot was indeed cheating. Reasonable argument for illegitimate. That said, the swing state in the Electoral College essentially tied. Compared to nominating false elector slates as has been proposed, that was all chump change. No one claimed the they would ignore election results. No interference by foreigners at a candidate's request. There was obviously physical interference and threat of violence by supporters though. So, yes, arguably not legitimate. Compared to Trump, more of an ad hoc assault than a long term plan though. Then, like Clinton, a decisive victory in second term.

Obama? He won. Opponents opposed him viciously, some by prioritizing his defeat as a legislating principle, but never advanced any real reason to consider him illegitimate. No one claimed they would ignore election results. No interference by foreigners at a candidate's request. No inciting of violence by supporters. Then, like Clinton and Bush, again a victory in the second term.

I think in 2016-2020 we're looking at a different level of illegitimate than "normal", if you will.

middo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #816 on: October 10, 2020, 03:59:46 AM »
As an "outsider" from another country, how many in the US think that a change to the voting system for the President is necessary?

The electoral college seems hopelessly outdated.  The senate provides the sates with a brake on the popular vote as many systems have.

Either a run off election like France, or maybe a preferential election, where you vote 1 for your preferred candidate, 2 for the next preferred candidate and so on.

It would remove the "Ross Perot" factor, amd allow people to vote green, ot libertarian, or whatever, without their vote being useless.

Ideas?

Dicey

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #817 on: October 10, 2020, 05:43:11 AM »
I don't follow Fox News, but this just popped up during an insomnia fueled browsing spree. Seemed worthy of sharing here.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/keith-olbermann-amy-coney-barrett-trump-prosecuted-removed-society

I don't follow Keith particularly, but I helped him once when I worked at Nordstrom. He was nice, so it caught my eye when his name popped up.

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #818 on: October 10, 2020, 08:39:21 AM »
Obama? He won. Opponents opposed him viciously, some by prioritizing his defeat as a legislating principle, but never advanced any real reason to consider him illegitimate. No one claimed they would ignore election results. No interference by foreigners at a candidate's request. No inciting of violence by supporters. Then, like Clinton and Bush, again a victory in the second term.

There was a vocal minority that claims/claimed Obama was illegitimate because he wasn't a US citizen. It's not the same as ignoring election results but the end result is the same -- the belief that "This is not our President by law."


OtherJen

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #819 on: October 10, 2020, 08:48:34 AM »
Obama? He won. Opponents opposed him viciously, some by prioritizing his defeat as a legislating principle, but never advanced any real reason to consider him illegitimate. No one claimed they would ignore election results. No interference by foreigners at a candidate's request. No inciting of violence by supporters. Then, like Clinton and Bush, again a victory in the second term.

There was a vocal minority that claims/claimed Obama was illegitimate because he wasn't a US citizen. It's not the same as ignoring election results but the end result is the same -- the belief that "This is not our President by law."

Including the current occupant of the Oval Office.

sui generis

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #820 on: October 10, 2020, 09:58:36 AM »
As an "outsider" from another country, how many in the US think that a change to the voting system for the President is necessary?

The electoral college seems hopelessly outdated.  The senate provides the sates with a brake on the popular vote as many systems have.

Either a run off election like France, or maybe a preferential election, where you vote 1 for your preferred candidate, 2 for the next preferred candidate and so on.

It would remove the "Ross Perot" factor, amd allow people to vote green, ot libertarian, or whatever, without their vote being useless.

Ideas?

I don't think it's a lack of ideas on how to do it better, but a resistance to change.  Change is always hard, but in this case it's compounded by the idea that change would only be for partisan gain and is thus unfair. 

I mean, even talking about making DC and Puerto Rico states so they can have full representation in the House and any representation in the Senate is considered unfair and is talked about like some underhanded tactic by many.  And these people are full U.S. citizens that literally are disenfranchised just because of where they happen to live at a particular moment in time.  It's shockingly undemocratic that they should be disenfrachised.  But just that basic, moral fight for representation probably won't happen either, so making big changes to the electoral college or other good ideas like ranked choice voting, etc etc are even more remote possibilities, to my mind.

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #821 on: October 10, 2020, 10:16:03 AM »
Obama? He won. Opponents opposed him viciously, some by prioritizing his defeat as a legislating principle, but never advanced any real reason to consider him illegitimate. No one claimed they would ignore election results. No interference by foreigners at a candidate's request. No inciting of violence by supporters. Then, like Clinton and Bush, again a victory in the second term.

There was a vocal minority that claims/claimed Obama was illegitimate because he wasn't a US citizen. It's not the same as ignoring election results but the end result is the same -- the belief that "This is not our President by law."

But that vocal minority was and is completely wrong - deliberately so. They have been given encouragement to conflate the lie with their racism and have done so.

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #822 on: October 10, 2020, 11:56:05 AM »
Obama? He won. Opponents opposed him viciously, some by prioritizing his defeat as a legislating principle, but never advanced any real reason to consider him illegitimate. No one claimed they would ignore election results. No interference by foreigners at a candidate's request. No inciting of violence by supporters. Then, like Clinton and Bush, again a victory in the second term.

There was a vocal minority that claims/claimed Obama was illegitimate because he wasn't a US citizen. It's not the same as ignoring election results but the end result is the same -- the belief that "This is not our President by law."

But that vocal minority was and is completely wrong - deliberately so. They have been given encouragement to conflate the lie with their racism and have done so.

They have been elected to the highest position in the land, at least slightly one must suspect because of the lies perpetrated.

MilesTeg

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #823 on: October 10, 2020, 01:50:52 PM »
I don't follow Fox News, but this just popped up during an insomnia fueled browsing spree. Seemed worthy of sharing here.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/keith-olbermann-amy-coney-barrett-trump-prosecuted-removed-society

I don't follow Keith particularly, but I helped him once when I worked at Nordstrom. He was nice, so it caught my eye when his name popped up.

I have read she is on record stating that she has and will continue to work to convert the U.S. into a theocracy. Is there truth to that?

SunnyDays

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #824 on: October 10, 2020, 01:55:47 PM »

By definition, half of Americans are below average in intelligence.  I suspect this forum is strongly self-selecting for above average intelligence, and further I suspect that many people on this forum (myself included) have been so silo-ed into school/workplace/marriages with comparably smart peers that we rarely interact in any meaningful way with people who are in that 50% of 'below average'. Thus, we find it hard to believe the 'average voter' might indeed be quite a bit below us in intelligence and critical thinking skills. It can be shocking to have an in-depth conversation with such a person, and further to realize that those people are half the country.

And it's not like our intelligence always serves us to make optimal decisions, either, given that we are still very susceptible to making decisions based on emotion.

I really think people who are lucky enough to have won the genetic intelligence lottery very quickly forget just how many people out there have not.


Actually, this is not true.  While it seems logical, because 100 is generally thought to be normal IQ, 90 - 110 is the normal range.  50% of the population falls here.  16.1% falls in the 80 - 89 range, 6.7% in the 70 - 79 range and 2.2% below 70.  So in total, only 25% are below normal IQ.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #825 on: October 10, 2020, 05:04:05 PM »
I don't follow Fox News, but this just popped up during an insomnia fueled browsing spree. Seemed worthy of sharing here.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/keith-olbermann-amy-coney-barrett-trump-prosecuted-removed-society

I don't follow Keith particularly, but I helped him once when I worked at Nordstrom. He was nice, so it caught my eye when his name popped up.

I have read she is on record stating that she has and will continue to work to convert the U.S. into a theocracy. Is there truth to that?

No

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/24/fact-check-amy-coney-barrett-quote-missing-context-viral-meme/3496107001/

wenchsenior

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #826 on: October 10, 2020, 05:27:56 PM »

By definition, half of Americans are below average in intelligence.  I suspect this forum is strongly self-selecting for above average intelligence, and further I suspect that many people on this forum (myself included) have been so silo-ed into school/workplace/marriages with comparably smart peers that we rarely interact in any meaningful way with people who are in that 50% of 'below average'. Thus, we find it hard to believe the 'average voter' might indeed be quite a bit below us in intelligence and critical thinking skills. It can be shocking to have an in-depth conversation with such a person, and further to realize that those people are half the country.

And it's not like our intelligence always serves us to make optimal decisions, either, given that we are still very susceptible to making decisions based on emotion.

I really think people who are lucky enough to have won the genetic intelligence lottery very quickly forget just how many people out there have not.


Actually, this is not true.  While it seems logical, because 100 is generally thought to be normal IQ, 90 - 110 is the normal range.  50% of the population falls here.  16.1% falls in the 80 - 89 range, 6.7% in the 70 - 79 range and 2.2% below 70.  So in total, only 25% are below normal IQ.

Interesting. Also, I should have said half are below median intelligence, not average.  Did I post that before coffee?

Still, that's a lot of people that most of us probably are not mingling with on a regular basis. 

SunnyDays

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #827 on: October 10, 2020, 06:33:19 PM »

By definition, half of Americans are below average in intelligence.  I suspect this forum is strongly self-selecting for above average intelligence, and further I suspect that many people on this forum (myself included) have been so silo-ed into school/workplace/marriages with comparably smart peers that we rarely interact in any meaningful way with people who are in that 50% of 'below average'. Thus, we find it hard to believe the 'average voter' might indeed be quite a bit below us in intelligence and critical thinking skills. It can be shocking to have an in-depth conversation with such a person, and further to realize that those people are half the country.

And it's not like our intelligence always serves us to make optimal decisions, either, given that we are still very susceptible to making decisions based on emotion.

I really think people who are lucky enough to have won the genetic intelligence lottery very quickly forget just how many people out there have not.


Actually, this is not true.  While it seems logical, because 100 is generally thought to be normal IQ, 90 - 110 is the normal range.  50% of the population falls here.  16.1% falls in the 80 - 89 range, 6.7% in the 70 - 79 range and 2.2% below 70.  So in total, only 25% are below normal IQ.

Interesting. Also, I should have said half are below median intelligence, not average.  Did I post that before coffee?

Still, that's a lot of people that most of us probably are not mingling with on a regular basis. 

Yes, median is more accurate.  And I agree that like tends to mingle with like.  I guess that’s why different groups have such a hard time seeing others’ point of view.  Political opinions generally fall into line with overall world views, both of which are most likely correlated with intelligence level.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #828 on: October 10, 2020, 09:18:27 PM »
Obama? He won. Opponents opposed him viciously, some by prioritizing his defeat as a legislating principle, but never advanced any real reason to consider him illegitimate. No one claimed they would ignore election results. No interference by foreigners at a candidate's request. No inciting of violence by supporters. Then, like Clinton and Bush, again a victory in the second term.

There was a vocal minority that claims/claimed Obama was illegitimate because he wasn't a US citizen. It's not the same as ignoring election results but the end result is the same -- the belief that "This is not our President by law."

Other people claiming is different from the actions of a President or an administration. The Presidents I reviewed conformed to some basic level of respecting the republic's institutions and norms, until Trump, with the arguable exception of Bush 43's ascension via the Brooks Brothers / Supreme Court path.

If your position is that "some people felt he was illegitimate", many Presidents have aroused such feelings in at least a few people. But there's a difference between a small minority versus half or more of the public and the electorate. Also I think truth matters, not just feelings. Thus the apparently groundless feeling of the birthers is not legitimate in my view (because as others have pointed out, it's literally and provably false).

If legitimacy is only a matter of swaying opinion, Trump has of course not been legitimate at any point - he's been under 50% approval consistently and never got 50% of the vote. He is also not in position for a legitimate win in 2020 on that criteria because a consistent majority favor another candidate. Whether legitimacy comes from majority opinion or whether it comes from a mutually respected decision procedure, most elections for decades had a legitimate winner and Trump doesn't look like he's positioned to be one this year.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2020, 04:50:56 AM by BicycleB »

Shane

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #829 on: October 11, 2020, 06:50:49 AM »
Its hugely beneficial to remove advertising from daily life. Mentally freeing. Same goes for social media. Sometimes socially isolating too but its a price worth paying IMHO.

The truth matters b/c when you have a trash candidate backed by a (currently) trash political party they begin impacting one's life directly.

ACA, gerrymandering, LGTBQ, wars/military service, economy, etc. etc.

Yeah, advertising works, but consuming it is mostly a choice, as Joe points out. I've read that Mike Bloomberg spent lots of $$ on advertising during the primary, but I never saw even one of his ads. I imagine that both Trump and Biden are spending lots of money on TV advertisements, right now, but I haven't watched TV since the 80s, so I haven't seen any of their TV ads, either. The only ads I see, now, are on YouTube, which I've been mostly avoiding recently.

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #830 on: October 11, 2020, 06:50:46 PM »
Do you honestly not see how all of your examples support the notion that people are influenced by marketing?
As you said, Ford drivers can't be convinced to switch to Chevy.  In the industry that's called "Brand Loyalty."  Ford isn't sitting idly by in the marketing department. A large chunk of a company's advertising is aimed at retaining existing customers.

There's another well known phenomenon around soft drinks; Coca-cola is the leading soft drink and people are very particular about 'Coke vs. Pepsi' even though in double-blind taste tests Pepsi often wins.

Governmental advertising bans are an excellent example, though not for the reasons you gave. We first saw their impact with underage smoking rate. In places where advertising to children was curtailed and anti-smoking campaigns were launched, smoking went down.  There's also a well known correlation between obesity and access to sugary drinks.

The key message here is that adverts and propaganda rarely exist in a vacuum.  There is almost always multiple brands or messages fighting for dominance.  In spaces where there is only one (N. Korea comes to mind) it's astounding how much penetration even outlandish claims can have.  As an example, the reason why political ads for Bloomberg didn't translate into a avalanche of votes for Mike is because those ads were mixed into a sea of ads and messages also vying for people's votes.  Trump, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobouchar and others were all running their own ads.  Despite skipping the first four states Bloomberg got 2.4MM votes (not "a handful") - beating out Warren in those races despite his late start.  Given the saturation of the race one could argue that Bloomberg's ad blitz was remarkably effective.

Your entire premise that advertising isn't terribly effective would mean that companies and campaigns waste hundreds-of-billions annually unnecessarily. If that were the case, don't you think most of them would have caught on and realized "hey, if we cut our advertising budget we don't lose much in profits!?"

You seem to want to have it both ways.  I'm pretty sure the whole complaint about Russian Facebook ads wasn't "Russian intelligence agencies helped preserve brand loyalty for the Republicans, thus delivering the victory to Trump." 

And does it really matter who ran the ads?  Both campaigns put out messaging, speeches, interviews, ads, had debates, etc.  The American people had the opportunity to see all of that and make their decision.

To debase the verdict based on some Russian advertisements is a complete copout, of exactly the same sort as the Trumpie "voter fraud."

The fact is Republicans grew their voters by well less than voting age population grew, and Democrats went backwards.  Any company that releases a new version of a product and sees growth stagnate to below market growth levels, or go backwards, would easily conclude they released a bad product.  Not that the other guy's marketing was better, especially when the other guys also had a bad product and bad sales.

Despite skipping the first four states Bloomberg got 2.4MM votes (not "a handful") - beating out Warren in those races despite his late start.  Given the saturation of the race one could argue that Bloomberg's ad blitz was remarkably effective.
I'm not sure how $400 per vote can be see as effective in any context.  He would have been better handing out envelopes stuffed with Benjamins in the voting line.


Your entire premise that advertising isn't terribly effective would mean that companies and campaigns waste hundreds-of-billions annually unnecessarily. If that were the case, don't you think most of them would have caught on and realized "hey, if we cut our advertising budget we don't lose much in profits!?"

Another complete copout.  For one, you are completely misrepresenting my argument.  I did not say that advertising dollars were a waste.  I said that the manipulability of the average person is overstated.  You deliberately misconstrued that into a strawman argument.

Second, there's survivorship bias.  You don't see the ad campaigns stick around for very long, for products that people don't like.  Maybe advertising is effective when you have a genuinely good product (Obama, Volvos, iPhone) to compete against other good products, but is just blowing money around a terrible product (Bloomberg, Zune, Fire phone)

(as an aside, I chuckle at the thought that perhaps advertising greatest victory was convincing CEOs and CFOs that advertising works.  A silly thought, but pretty funny!)

Governmental advertising bans are an excellent example, though not for the reasons you gave. We first saw their impact with underage smoking rate. In places where advertising to children was curtailed and anti-smoking campaigns were launched, smoking went down.  There's also a well known correlation between obesity and access to sugary drinks.

Smoking rates have gone down everywhere, because people have realized they are cancer sticks.  Bizarro world you live in, where people cannot be credited for making healthy choices, instead the credit has to go to bureaucrats.  Nightly news reports and public health reports bringing public awareness around the hazards of smoking surely cannot be equated with build-the-wall facebook banners, right?

Obesity...and yet the biggest nations in the world deploying all their might into limiting ads and access haven not managed to make a dent in obesity rates...

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #831 on: October 11, 2020, 06:57:19 PM »
As an "outsider" from another country, how many in the US think that a change to the voting system for the President is necessary?

The electoral college seems hopelessly outdated.  The senate provides the sates with a brake on the popular vote as many systems have.

Either a run off election like France, or maybe a preferential election, where you vote 1 for your preferred candidate, 2 for the next preferred candidate and so on.

It would remove the "Ross Perot" factor, amd allow people to vote green, ot libertarian, or whatever, without their vote being useless.

Ideas?

There's nothing "outdated" about the electoral college.  The European Union also gives member states geographical, not proportional, representation in the Council, and proportional representation in the Parliament.  Much newer designed system.  Sound familiar?

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #832 on: October 11, 2020, 07:10:13 PM »
This is tiring. This will be my last response. You're still ignoring everything everyone has said about what people mean when they say that.


I know exactly what they meant by that.  Or more precisely, what they didn't mean.

They didn't mean that Clinton failed to get to Obama's vote total in 2016

They didn't mean that Clinton failed to get within 3M votes of Obama's 2008

They didn't mean that Clinton failed to duplicate Obama's 2016 Electoral College advantage, winning 60% of the EC votes despite only 51% of the vote, and being favored to win if the vote was 50/50. 

They didn't mean that Clinton deleted emails comingled with Top Secret information off of an unauthorized server.

They didn't mean at all to acknowledge they had a weak candidate who lost to, based on opinion polling, a wildly unpopular man.

Pretty sure they didn't mean any of that.

Milizard

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #833 on: October 11, 2020, 07:20:57 PM »
The balance of power between the union and states is vastly different between the US and the EU.

Abe

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #834 on: October 11, 2020, 07:22:09 PM »
As an "outsider" from another country, how many in the US think that a change to the voting system for the President is necessary?

The electoral college seems hopelessly outdated.  The senate provides the sates with a brake on the popular vote as many systems have.

Either a run off election like France, or maybe a preferential election, where you vote 1 for your preferred candidate, 2 for the next preferred candidate and so on.

It would remove the "Ross Perot" factor, amd allow people to vote green, ot libertarian, or whatever, without their vote being useless.

Ideas?

There's nothing "outdated" about the electoral college.  The European Union also gives member states geographical, not proportional, representation in the Council, and proportional representation in the Parliament.  Much newer designed system.  Sound familiar?

I'd say any system that does not provide direct, proportional representation to elect a head of state is outdated, regardless of actual age. There's no clear reason why people of a certain geography should have more influence than another. Especially in a country with such arbitrarily defined state borders as the US. It'll have to be a difference of opinion as obviously outdated is not an objectively definable term.

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #835 on: October 11, 2020, 08:09:29 PM »
I'd say any system that does not provide direct, proportional representation to elect a head of state is outdated, regardless of actual age. There's no clear reason why people of a certain geography should have more influence than another. Especially in a country with such arbitrarily defined state borders as the US. It'll have to be a difference of opinion as obviously outdated is not an objectively definable term.

Bold above is mine...

You do realize for a great many democracies, the head of state is appointed by parliament and not even elected, right?

partgypsy

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #836 on: October 12, 2020, 08:42:02 AM »
Let's put it plainly. Poll after poll show that he is an unpopular president, with the majority disapproving of his job performance. Most people who have worked in his administration, rather than working on his re election are coming out condemming him. both his performance, but also the illegality of his decisions. No living president has endorsed him, nor have top military (quite the opposite). Not just top brass but career military are voting against him.  What his administration is working for (getting another justice in order to outlawi abortion, roll back semi automatic weapon bans, removing ACA) are UNPOPULAR agendas in that the majority of Americans are FOR pro choice, FOR ACA and healthcare coverage and for sensible gun control, particularly regarding military grade weapons. Trump is pushing for Barrett to be installed as supreme court justice and saying outloud, that that is a priority OVER working with congress and senate to pass a bill to help Americans and businesses who have been impacted and suffering from this Pandemic (and his administration's poor response to it). When polled the majority of Americans AGREE, that the nomination of a supreme court justice should wait until AFTER the election. It should be the decision of who is elected this Nov 3rd. Getting assistance for COVID is a more pressing matter that a normal caring president would be concerned with. Not him. 

Wouldn't you agree Montecarlo if despite all this, if Trump is re elected there is something wrong with our electoral process? Because it means the majority of Americans have ben disenfranchised. 

(And as far as each side being equally dirty, it's not even close. Looking at the last 6, 7 presidencies, the number of indictments and convictions for illegal activities is far higher (by orders of magnitude) for Republican white houses than it is for Democratic presidencies. Despite that Republicans have spent millions in taxpayer money for investigations that wastes time and yields little or nothing. So let's quit with the false equivalencies they are the same. They are not.)


« Last Edit: October 12, 2020, 08:52:34 AM by partgypsy »

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #837 on: October 12, 2020, 09:04:56 AM »
Let's put it plainly. Poll after poll show that he is an unpopular president, with the majority disapproving of his job performance. Most people who have worked in his administration, rather than working on his re election are coming out condemming him. both his performance, but also the illegality of his decisions. No living president has endorsed him, nor have top military (quite the opposite). Not just top brass but career military are voting against him.  What his administration is working for (getting another justice in order to outlawi abortion, roll back semi automatic weapon bans, removing ACA) are UNPOPULAR agendas in that the majority of Americans are FOR pro choice, FOR ACA and healthcare coverage and for sensible gun control, particularly regarding military grade weapons. Trump is pushing for Barrett to be installed as supreme court justice and saying outloud, that that is a priority OVER working with congress and senate to pass a bill to help Americans and businesses who have been impacted and suffering from this Pandemic (and his administration's poor response to it). When polled the majority of Americans AGREE, that the nomination of a supreme court justice should wait until AFTER the election. It should be the decision of who is elected this Nov 3rd. Getting assistance for COVID is a more pressing matter that a normal caring president would be concerned with. Not him. 

Wouldn't you agree Montecarlo if despite all this, if Trump is re elected there is something wrong with our electoral process?  Because it means the majority of Americans have ben disenfranchised.

(And as far as each side being equally dirty, it's not even close. Looking at the last 6, 7 presidencies, the number of indictments and convictions for illegal activities is far higher (by orders of magnitude) for Republican white houses than it is for Democratic presidencies. Despite that Republicans have spent millions in taxpayer money for investigations that wastes time and yields little or nothing. So let's quit with the false equivalencies they are the same. They are not.)

I won't wait until Nov 4th to declare something wrong.  Trump getting elected in the first place demonstrates that.

I think there's a great many things wrong, but the electoral college process isn't one of them.  If I had to select my top one, it's the primary process.  Between apathy from mainstream Americans to having a say, and a process that often declares a winner (or at least minimizes the field to only 2 or 3 options) before most people have a chance to have a say, there is the potential to end up with fringe candidates like Trump at the top of a major ticket.

my #2 problem is circling the wagons.  I am infuriated with Republicans that there wasn't a strong primary challenger to Trump, and that's one of the reasons I'm voting D or third party straight down the ballot this time.


nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #838 on: October 12, 2020, 09:14:52 AM »
[
I'm not sure how $400 per vote can be see as effective in any context.  He would have been better handing out envelopes stuffed with Benjamins in the voting line.
Just for starters, your math is off by almost two orders of magnitude.  Yowsers!!

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #839 on: October 12, 2020, 09:21:20 AM »
[
I'm not sure how $400 per vote can be see as effective in any context.  He would have been better handing out envelopes stuffed with Benjamins in the voting line.
Just for starters, your math is off by almost two orders of magnitude.  Yowsers!!
1,000,000,000 / 2,400,000 ??

Where did I go wrong?

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #840 on: October 12, 2020, 09:23:09 AM »
and a process that often declares a winner (or at least minimizes the field to only 2 or 3 options) before most people have a chance to have a say

Unless you are going to insist that all primaries happen on the same day then there's no way to avoid this. And if you do insist that all primaries happen on the same day that simply means that it's impossible for the candidates to actually campaign / kiss babies / talk about local issues everywhere, and instead people would have to vote purely based on what are essentially TV ads.

The Republican party is particularly bad about this because of the winner-take-all or mostly-winner-take-all delegate states, but it's still true in the Democratic primaries and their proportional system too.

Davnasty

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #841 on: October 12, 2020, 09:27:01 AM »
Let's put it plainly. Poll after poll show that he is an unpopular president, with the majority disapproving of his job performance. Most people who have worked in his administration, rather than working on his re election are coming out condemming him. both his performance, but also the illegality of his decisions. No living president has endorsed him, nor have top military (quite the opposite). Not just top brass but career military are voting against him.  What his administration is working for (getting another justice in order to outlawi abortion, roll back semi automatic weapon bans, removing ACA) are UNPOPULAR agendas in that the majority of Americans are FOR pro choice, FOR ACA and healthcare coverage and for sensible gun control, particularly regarding military grade weapons. Trump is pushing for Barrett to be installed as supreme court justice and saying outloud, that that is a priority OVER working with congress and senate to pass a bill to help Americans and businesses who have been impacted and suffering from this Pandemic (and his administration's poor response to it). When polled the majority of Americans AGREE, that the nomination of a supreme court justice should wait until AFTER the election. It should be the decision of who is elected this Nov 3rd. Getting assistance for COVID is a more pressing matter that a normal caring president would be concerned with. Not him. 

Wouldn't you agree Montecarlo if despite all this, if Trump is re elected there is something wrong with our electoral process?  Because it means the majority of Americans have ben disenfranchised.

(And as far as each side being equally dirty, it's not even close. Looking at the last 6, 7 presidencies, the number of indictments and convictions for illegal activities is far higher (by orders of magnitude) for Republican white houses than it is for Democratic presidencies. Despite that Republicans have spent millions in taxpayer money for investigations that wastes time and yields little or nothing. So let's quit with the false equivalencies they are the same. They are not.)

I won't wait until Nov 4th to declare something wrong.  Trump getting elected in the first place demonstrates that.

I think there's a great many things wrong, but the electoral college process isn't one of them.  If I had to select my top one, it's the primary process.  Between apathy from mainstream Americans to having a say, and a process that often declares a winner (or at least minimizes the field to only 2 or 3 options) before most people have a chance to have a say, there is the potential to end up with fringe candidates like Trump at the top of a major ticket.

my #2 problem is circling the wagons.  I am infuriated with Republicans that there wasn't a strong primary challenger to Trump, and that's one of the reasons I'm voting D or third party straight down the ballot this time.

...getting another justice in order to outlaw abortion, roll back semi automatic weapon bans, removing ACA...

As far as I can tell these goals were generally supported by the Republican party and would have been pursued by whichever candidate was selected. Regardless of Trump, a (significant) majority of the population wants one thing yet our election system gives an advantage to the party that wants the opposite. That's a problem.

Instead of everyone else trying to argue why the electoral college doesn't make sense, could you tell us why it does?

It seems to me a popular vote system would be the simplest way to hold a democratic election. Any deviation away from that baseline should have a logical and thoughtful explanation for why that method is better.

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #842 on: October 12, 2020, 09:40:03 AM »

Instead of everyone else trying to argue why the electoral college doesn't make sense, could you tell us why it does?


See my post #779.  Not that I think the electoral college is superior.  I just acknowledge there is a certain logic to it.

I think the geographic representation vs proportional representation angle really comes down to history.  Obviously the EC is a mixture of geographic and proportional.  Bigger states have more votes, but smaller states have proportionally higher votes than their population alone would merit.  But I think the origins matter a lot.

Example 1
Let's say TX wanted to secede and split into four territories: NE (DFW), SE (Houston), SW (Austin/San Antonio), and NW (Abilene/Amarillo).

If you proposed a similar system for the United State of Texas, I think all the DFW and Houston citizens would lose their minds.  How does that make any sense they get less of a say, per voter?

Example 2
Let's say US and Canada merged into a political union.
Would it make sense to the Canadians to go full on proportional representation?  I'm pretty sure the Canadians would insist on geographic representation more extreme than the EC.


Yes they are silly examples and I'm sure some pedant will nitpick it to death.  The history of the US doesn't fit neatly into either bucket.  I think one takeaway is the geographic lean the EC has makes less sense if you think individual voters ought to count equally, and more sense if you think each member state ought to be on level terms.

I don't think liberal aversion to the EC comes down to election results alone.  As opposed to conservatives, who give lip service to small national government and advocate for the empowerment of state governments, liberals tend to view the federal nature as being permissive of race-to-the-bottom type policies of deregulation, spending cuts, and lower taxes, to say nothing of the potential nature of more extreme local electorates being able to pass laws that disenfranchise minorities and harm women's rights.  (Not trying to box in all liberals as anti-state, just saying definitely not as "States Rights Til I Die!" as other political views)

The EU is pretty similar to example two, and it's worth noting that the European Council is 1 member per member state, while the Parliament is proportional representation.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #843 on: October 12, 2020, 10:19:56 AM »
Many presidential elections have been won by a candidate who did not get a majority of the vote but did win a plurality.  It’s happened 19 times. Clinton is one example, as is Lincoln, Kennedy and Nixon.

 There have been a few Elections where the winning candidate failed to win the popular vote but hits primary opponent also did not win a majority. Bush (2000) and Trump (2016) Most recently

We’ve never had a situation when one candidate received a majority of all votes cast but lost the election. Given Biden’s lead in the polls but the real active narrowness of the three closest “battleground” states this is a remote but plausible possibility.

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #844 on: October 12, 2020, 11:12:33 AM »
[
I'm not sure how $400 per vote can be see as effective in any context.  He would have been better handing out envelopes stuffed with Benjamins in the voting line.
Just for starters, your math is off by almost two orders of magnitude.  Yowsers!!
1,000,000,000 / 2,400,000 ??

Where did I go wrong?

paging @nereo
Are you going to keep me in suspense on this one?

MilesTeg

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #845 on: October 12, 2020, 11:21:38 AM »
There are grossly broken parts of the U.S. system but the EC is not one of them.

The big problems are:

* Inability of the House to provide the proportional representation it is designed to provide. Representatives in small states represent fewer people than in large states. We need to overhaul the House to make it fulfill its constitutional purpose better.

* Gerrymandering

The reality is that, for my entire lifetime at least, Democrats typically have a +10 or better advantage in the population but still struggle to hold the House. The two problems above are the main reason. The system needs to be fixed. The House should never, ever be in the hands of the minority -- that'snot its Constitutional purpose.

Fixing this would force the Republican party to moderate its extreme platform.

It would also probably fix the EC absurdities that occasionally crop up like 2016.

DoubleDown

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #846 on: October 12, 2020, 11:46:26 AM »
Just nitpicking words a bit, but there's a healthy debate happening here about whether our EC system really represents "democracy" the way we'd like. The point is, we (the U.S.) by design don't have a democracy, we have a republic of states, and our government structure and voting process reflect that. It remains a primary reason lesser-populated states have outsize influence. One can certainly argue whether or not that is best or if we still want that, but our country was not really founded on the principle of having a "democracy." I agree with MilesTeg that the problems he/she cites above are gross and they don't properly reflect either a democracy or a republic.

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #847 on: October 12, 2020, 11:50:02 AM »
The EC doesn't have to be winner-take-all.

Maine and Nebraska have shown us the way. This would also encourage Republican nominees to address issues in, say, Bakersfield instead of writing off all of California; similarly with the Democrat nominee and El Paso, instead of ignoring all of Texas.

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #848 on: October 12, 2020, 12:23:24 PM »
[
I'm not sure how $400 per vote can be see as effective in any context.  He would have been better handing out envelopes stuffed with Benjamins in the voting line.
Just for starters, your math is off by almost two orders of magnitude.  Yowsers!!
1,000,000,000 / 2,400,000 ??

Where did I go wrong?

paging @nereo
Are you going to keep me in suspense on this one?

I’m going to take your silence as you are too embarrassed to admit your own yowser.

Davnasty

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #849 on: October 12, 2020, 12:25:21 PM »

Instead of everyone else trying to argue why the electoral college doesn't make sense, could you tell us why it does?


See my post #779.  Not that I think the electoral college is superior.  I just acknowledge there is a certain logic to it.


You said there's not something wrong with the electoral college so I took that as an endorsement that it is superior to popular vote (which again, I see as a baseline/default option). Perhaps you're saying the electoral college isn't so bad that you would prioritize it to be improved?

I think I understand your argument in the post you mentioned and I agree with it, but the ratio of individual/state voting power should be relative to the power of the federal government. As federal power increases, voting should be distributed more evenly to individuals and as federal power decreases (and state power therefore increases) votes should be distributed more evenly to states. Federal power has steadily increased over the last few decades under leadership from both parties so in turn I think voting power should be more evenly distributed to individuals.

Also as bacchi mentions I see the winner-take-all approach as another problem.