Poll

Who do you think will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Donald Trump
105 (29.6%)
Joe Biden
230 (64.8%)
3rd-Party Candidate or Black Swan Event (e.g., Trump or Biden dies)
20 (5.6%)

Total Members Voted: 353

Author Topic: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?  (Read 138363 times)

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #350 on: July 23, 2020, 08:49:27 AM »
You cannot cite polling which largely was conducted before an event as evidence supporting your claim.  Further, when the trend does not extend beyond the observed variance one cannot conclude that we are seeing a significant change from the moving average.  Additional polling conducted after the events in question might help elucidate the question at hand.
As is, the sources you and I are both looking at does not support your conclusion that Trump's response to the protests in Portland are helping him.

As far as I can tell the Portland thing started blowing up on national news on July 17, which is either fully or partially within the date ranges of the newest batch of polls, which are coincidentally the same ones that move the average from the +9.x range to the +7.x range.

Is it too early to tell definitively? Sure. Is it a small change in a noisy signal? Sure. But there also is no evidence that it's hurting Trump either.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #351 on: July 23, 2020, 09:09:50 AM »
You cannot cite polling which largely was conducted before an event as evidence supporting your claim.  Further, when the trend does not extend beyond the observed variance one cannot conclude that we are seeing a significant change from the moving average.  Additional polling conducted after the events in question might help elucidate the question at hand.
As is, the sources you and I are both looking at does not support your conclusion that Trump's response to the protests in Portland are helping him.

As far as I can tell the Portland thing started blowing up on national news on July 17, which is either fully or partially within the date ranges of the newest batch of polls, which are coincidentally the same ones that move the average from the +9.x range to the +7.x range.

Is it too early to tell definitively? Sure. Is it a small change in a noisy signal? Sure. But there also is no evidence that it's hurting Trump either.

I agree that it is too early to tell and that the signal is insignificant.  I would be particularly wary of comparing peak-to-trough over short time spans (i.e. in early June polling numbers were even closer than they appear today). Many of the respondents of these latest polls had already been interviewed prior to July 17th, and there were no direct questions asked in these polls about federal law enforcement so we cannot discern whether the situation in Portland had any bearing on their support of DJT.

You cannot draw strong conclusions in either direction from the available data.  New polling may shed more light on this in the weeks to come.

jim555

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #352 on: July 23, 2020, 11:09:04 AM »
Portland Occupied by Secret Federal "Police"? | LegalEagle’s Real Law Review
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uglv-fV1CqI

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #353 on: July 23, 2020, 11:50:23 AM »
You cannot cite polling which largely was conducted before an event as evidence supporting your claim.  Further, when the trend does not extend beyond the observed variance one cannot conclude that we are seeing a significant change from the moving average.  Additional polling conducted after the events in question might help elucidate the question at hand.
As is, the sources you and I are both looking at does not support your conclusion that Trump's response to the protests in Portland are helping him.

As far as I can tell the Portland thing started blowing up on national news on July 17, which is either fully or partially within the date ranges of the newest batch of polls, which are coincidentally the same ones that move the average from the +9.x range to the +7.x range.

Is it too early to tell definitively? Sure. Is it a small change in a noisy signal? Sure. But there also is no evidence that it's hurting Trump either.

@sherr, that makes sense. I change my view in light of the (disappointing) data. Thanks.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 09:19:21 AM by BicycleB »

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #354 on: July 24, 2020, 09:15:00 AM »

If a fundamentally important law exists but is not enforced when broken, then there is no rule of law.  That's what we're seeing right now.  Hopefully the US will get back to a state where it's laws are obeyed by the president, law enforcement, and the paramilitary.  Right now, that's pretty clearly not the case.

That's fair. I certainly agree with your hopes, and agree that the president and federal law enforcement have not been obeying the law.

Fwiw, I take the long view - that individual laws temporarily get broken, but that the overall law maintains itself by the process where lawbreaking is challenged, and the challenger is upheld over the lawbreaker. The case becomes an example of the line that you cannot cross. That is the overall process summarized as "the law".

Case in point: as of last night, a court with appropriate jurisdiction issued a temporary restraining order instructing Dept of Homeland Security and the US Marshals Service that they must leave journalists and observers alone, even if they issue protestors an order to disperse. The ruling also stated that the agencies' behavior raised serious questions about constitutional violations. That's judge-speak for "you guys are out of line, and as more cases proceed, you're gonna have to stop this crap. I can only rule on some details at this moment, but the facts presented show that your problems go much farther than just what I'm ruling on." I'm hoping that broader decisions of this sort will emerge and be upheld. (If not - then maybe the rule of law fails long term, and democracy with it. So I'm hopeful but worried.)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/judge-blocks-federal-officers-from-targeting-journalists-in-portland.html

TheGrimSqueaker

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #355 on: August 06, 2020, 11:46:02 AM »
The US presidential election in 2020 will be won by an old white guy from an extremely privileged background who has a history of extremely inappropriate behavior toward women.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #356 on: August 06, 2020, 12:03:44 PM »
The US presidential election in 2020 will be won by an old white guy from an extremely privileged background who has a history of extremely inappropriate behavior toward women.

While I'm guessing this was an attempt at humor, this only describes Trump to me.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #357 on: August 06, 2020, 01:13:31 PM »
The US presidential election in 2020 will be won by an old white guy from an extremely privileged background who has a history of extremely inappropriate behavior toward women.

^ You caused me to read more about Biden's background. Based on the tidbits in Wikipedia alone:

Biden wasn't poverty stricken, had white privilege plus some moderately successful ancestors (slightly better than Trump's grandfather, a bar/brothel owner, in success level), but is it fair to say "extreme" privilege? Biden's Dad went broke enough to lose his home by the time Biden was 10, later recovering some earning power by selling cars. Seems like a contrast to inheriting millions or hundreds of millions from his father (Trump's case), having a dad who is a US Senator (Bush 41) or President (Bush 43), having a notoriously wealthy father (Kennedy), and so on.

Sorry to quibble. Next time, may the best woman win! :)

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #358 on: August 06, 2020, 01:21:32 PM »
The US presidential election in 2020 will be won by an old white guy from an extremely privileged background who has a history of extremely inappropriate behavior toward women.

^ You caused me to read more about Biden's background. Based on the tidbits in Wikipedia alone:

Biden wasn't poverty stricken, had white privilege plus some moderately successful ancestors (slightly better than Trump's grandfather, a bar/brothel owner, in success level), but is it fair to say "extreme" privilege? Biden's Dad went broke enough to lose his home by the time Biden was 10, later recovering some earning power by selling cars. Seems like a contrast to inheriting millions or hundreds of millions from his father (Trump's case), having a dad who is a US Senator (Bush 41) or President (Bush 43), having a notoriously wealthy father (Kennedy), and so on.

Sorry to quibble. Next time, may the best woman win! :)

It also seems like there's a false equivalence between the two and their behavior towards women.  Trump's publicly bragged about his multiple affairs and sexual exploits, along with numerous allegations of assault and rape.  Biden of course has the allegations of Reade, which have been covered and debate on this forum adn elsewhere.  Biden does not have the level of allegations (either in number of severety) that Trump has against him.

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #359 on: August 06, 2020, 01:25:32 PM »
Next time, may the best woman win! :)

So you don't think the Republicans are even going to run next time then?

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #360 on: August 06, 2020, 01:31:09 PM »
The US presidential election in 2020 will be won by an old white guy from an extremely privileged background who has a history of extremely inappropriate behavior toward women.

^ You caused me to read more about Biden's background. Based on the tidbits in Wikipedia alone:

Biden wasn't poverty stricken, had white privilege plus some moderately successful ancestors (slightly better than Trump's grandfather, a bar/brothel owner, in success level), but is it fair to say "extreme" privilege? Biden's Dad went broke enough to lose his home by the time Biden was 10, later recovering some earning power by selling cars. Seems like a contrast to inheriting millions or hundreds of millions from his father (Trump's case), having a dad who is a US Senator (Bush 41) or President (Bush 43), having a notoriously wealthy father (Kennedy), and so on.

Sorry to quibble. Next time, may the best woman win! :)

It also seems like there's a false equivalence between the two and their behavior towards women.  Trump's publicly bragged about his multiple affairs and sexual exploits, along with numerous allegations of assault and rape.  Biden of course has the allegations of Reade, which have been covered and debate on this forum adn elsewhere.  Biden does not have the level of allegations (either in number of severety) that Trump has against him.

Biden also torpedoed the Anita Hill accusations against Justice Thomas. Not sure why conservatives aren't willing to give him credit for ensuring the smooth transition to the SCOTUS for their most reliable living conservative justice.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #361 on: August 06, 2020, 01:39:39 PM »
The US presidential election in 2020 will be won by an old white guy from an extremely privileged background who has a history of extremely inappropriate behavior toward women.

^ You caused me to read more about Biden's background. Based on the tidbits in Wikipedia alone:

Biden wasn't poverty stricken, had white privilege plus some moderately successful ancestors (slightly better than Trump's grandfather, a bar/brothel owner, in success level), but is it fair to say "extreme" privilege? Biden's Dad went broke enough to lose his home by the time Biden was 10, later recovering some earning power by selling cars. Seems like a contrast to inheriting millions or hundreds of millions from his father (Trump's case), having a dad who is a US Senator (Bush 41) or President (Bush 43), having a notoriously wealthy father (Kennedy), and so on.

Sorry to quibble. Next time, may the best woman win! :)

It also seems like there's a false equivalence between the two and their behavior towards women.  Trump's publicly bragged about his multiple affairs and sexual exploits, along with numerous allegations of assault and rape.  Biden of course has the allegations of Reade, which have been covered and debate on this forum adn elsewhere.  Biden does not have the level of allegations (either in number of severety) that Trump has against him.

Biden also torpedoed the Anita Hill accusations against Justice Thomas. Not sure why conservatives aren't willing to give him credit for ensuring the smooth transition to the SCOTUS for their most reliable living conservative justice.

On that note I think it's important to consider what each candidate says about their past actions.  Biden's expressed regret over the way Anita Hill was treated during Thomas's confirmation, and has apologized  to anyone who felt uncomfortable by his hugs and pats. Near as I can tell all incidents surrounding Biden happened about a quarter-century ago.  Trump has expressed no regrets and no responsibility in more than 25 cases.  Allegations against Trump go back to the 1970s and extend into 2016, many now covered under settlements with ND clauses.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #362 on: August 06, 2020, 03:15:53 PM »
The US presidential election in 2020 will be won by an old white guy from an extremely privileged background who has a history of extremely inappropriate behavior toward women.


Sorry to quibble. Next time, may the best woman win! :)

Nikki Haley is an obvious Republican woman positioning herself for a serious Presidential run. She'll have to beat back Mike Pompeo in that primary to do it.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #363 on: August 06, 2020, 04:47:14 PM »

Nikki Haley is an obvious Republican woman positioning herself for a serious Presidential run. She'll have to beat back Mike Pompeo in that primary to do it.

IMO in a theoretical primary between Haley and Pompeo - should Haley win the GOP has a hope of surviving in an increasingly diverse country.  Or put another way, nominating Pompeo would just put another bombastic, chauvinistic white guy as the standard-bearer of the GOP after losing the support of scores of female voters and minority voters.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #364 on: August 06, 2020, 06:18:53 PM »
Next time, may the best woman win! :)

So you don't think the Republicans are even going to run next time then?

LOL. See below for details. :)

The US presidential election in 2020 will be won by an old white guy from an extremely privileged background who has a history of extremely inappropriate behavior toward women.


Sorry to quibble. Next time, may the best woman win! :)

Nikki Haley is an obvious Republican woman positioning herself for a serious Presidential run. She'll have to beat back Mike Pompeo in that primary to do it.

@talltexan, you beat me to it re Ambassador Gov. Haley! @GuitarStv, maybe in the 2024 primaries thread we'll be pondering Haley vs Ivanka.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 07:25:26 PM by BicycleB »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #365 on: August 06, 2020, 06:31:49 PM »
Biden of course has the allegations of Reade, which have been covered and debate on this forum adn elsewhere.  Biden does not have the level of allegations (either in number of severety) that Trump has against him.

So Biden is running on the  "hey, at least I am not as bad as *that* guy" platform?

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #366 on: August 06, 2020, 07:29:42 PM »
Biden of course has the allegations of Reade, which have been covered and debate on this forum adn elsewhere.  Biden does not have the level of allegations (either in number of severety) that Trump has against him.

So Biden is running on the  "hey, at least I am not as bad as *that* guy" platform?
No, how did you get that from what I said?

chesebert

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #367 on: August 06, 2020, 07:55:45 PM »
Biden of course has the allegations of Reade, which have been covered and debate on this forum adn elsewhere.  Biden does not have the level of allegations (either in number of severety) that Trump has against him.

So Biden is running on the  "hey, at least I am not as bad as *that* guy" platform?

Saw him on an interview - honestly I think Biden needs to drink some soup and take a nap. He can hardly string together a sentence that is grammatically correct and logically coherent. This election is going to be a shit show - I give up. 


Kris

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #368 on: August 06, 2020, 07:59:14 PM »
The right is simultaneously running on “Biden is weak and senile” and “Biden will take all your guns and destroy democracy and our country.”

It’s a little hard to take seriously.

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #369 on: August 06, 2020, 08:04:05 PM »
The right is simultaneously running on “Biden is weak and senile” and “Biden will take all your guns and destroy democracy and our country.”

It’s a little hard to take seriously.

It's like they missed the Wallace and Swan interviews with Trump. Now that's a shit show.

As someone above posted, if Trump keeps doing interviews like those, Biden doesn't have to do a thing.

Warlord1986

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #370 on: August 06, 2020, 09:33:52 PM »
The right is simultaneously running on “Biden is weak and senile” and “Biden will take all your guns and destroy democracy and our country.”

It’s a little hard to take seriously.

It's like they missed the Wallace and Swan interviews with Trump. Now that's a shit show.

As someone above posted, if Trump keeps doing interviews like those, Biden doesn't have to do a thing.

We said the same thing in 2016. We thought Clinton's win was a given.

We can take nothing for granted this time around.

NorthernBlitz

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #371 on: August 07, 2020, 03:38:00 AM »
The right is simultaneously running on “Biden is weak and senile” and “Biden will take all your guns and destroy democracy and our country.”

It’s a little hard to take seriously.

It's like they missed the Wallace and Swan interviews with Trump. Now that's a shit show.

As someone above posted, if Trump keeps doing interviews like those, Biden doesn't have to do a thing.

I live in the US but can't vote yet (probably next time).

I don't understand how people don't see that they both really suck.

Like the argument above about Biden being better because he probably assaulted fewer women that Trump.

They're probably both in cognative decline, but it seems more obvious in Biden.

I also don't get how the US doesn't have a max age for POTUS.

Maybe you shouldn't be allowed to run if you'd pass the average life expectancy for your gender during your term. I think this would eliminate both (although maybe Trump squeaks in by months). Or maybe if you've been eligible for social security for a decade (although this gives a perverse incentive for politicians to push the eligibility date back)

I also don't get what was so great about being born in the '40s. Since 2000 only 2 nominees were born outside that decade. McCain (30s) and Obama (61). Maybe it's time to start picking politicians of a different vintage.

I guess all this is to say that I don't envy those of you that have to make this choice. And I don't understand how to fix the primary system so that it starts to put forth people that would be good at the job.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 03:39:38 AM by NorthernBlitz »

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #372 on: August 07, 2020, 04:57:42 AM »
Biden of course has the allegations of Reade, which have been covered and debate on this forum adn elsewhere.  Biden does not have the level of allegations (either in number of severety) that Trump has against him.

So Biden is running on the  "hey, at least I am not as bad as *that* guy" platform?

Saw him on an interview - honestly I think Biden needs to drink some soup and take a nap. He can hardly string together a sentence that is grammatically correct and logically coherent. This election is going to be a shit show - I give up.

I must admit such statements baffle me.  I’ve watched a number of his statements in recent weeks and I’ve actually heard Biden speak twice before the Covid lockdown.  He has a tendency to ramble but I’ve not had any reason for concern. His responses to just about every major event have been in line with what we have come to expect for every recent president not named Trump - republican or democrat.

Drink some soup and take a nap?  Yeah, that sounds nice for me too...
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 07:21:38 AM by nereo »

Kris

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #373 on: August 07, 2020, 06:00:46 AM »
The right is simultaneously running on “Biden is weak and senile” and “Biden will take all your guns and destroy democracy and our country.”

It’s a little hard to take seriously.

It's like they missed the Wallace and Swan interviews with Trump. Now that's a shit show.

As someone above posted, if Trump keeps doing interviews like those, Biden doesn't have to do a thing.

We said the same thing in 2016. We thought Clinton's win was a given.

We can take nothing for granted this time around.

I didn’t. I was saying Trump would win a year before the election in 2016.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #374 on: August 07, 2020, 07:27:28 AM »
The right is simultaneously running on “Biden is weak and senile” and “Biden will take all your guns and destroy democracy and our country.”

It’s a little hard to take seriously.

It's like they missed the Wallace and Swan interviews with Trump. Now that's a shit show.

As someone above posted, if Trump keeps doing interviews like those, Biden doesn't have to do a thing.

We said the same thing in 2016. We thought Clinton's win was a given.

We can take nothing for granted this time around.

Seems like revisionist history to me.  Clinton's chances were 7/10 going into election week, and almost every swing-state remained competitive through the entire general campaign.  The results bore that out - Clinton won the popular vote by >2MM votes, and Trump walked the narrowist of paths through a series of swing states.

I agree we should take nothing for granted, but at this moment in time Biden is well ahead of where both HRC and Obama were at during this same stage of their campaigns.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #375 on: August 07, 2020, 07:38:51 AM »
I agree we should take nothing for granted, but at this moment in time Biden is well ahead of where both HRC and Obama were at during this same stage of their campaigns.

Well  . . . yeah.  He's white, Christian, and male.  History has shown us that those are the three most important qualifications to being president of the United States.

NorthernBlitz

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #376 on: August 07, 2020, 07:57:52 AM »
I agree we should take nothing for granted, but at this moment in time Biden is well ahead of where both HRC and Obama were at during this same stage of their campaigns.

Well  . . . yeah.  He's white, Christian, and male.  History has shown us that those are the three most important qualifications to being president of the United States.

I agree the Dems chose him specifically because of his age, race, and gender. But I don't think that strategy is a good one personally (particularly when remembering who the president before this one was).

I think Biden's lead is more about people being pretty dissatisfied with how Trump has handled the pandemic. I don't think the polls would be much different if it was any of the candidates that were in the primary this time (or HRC again). I also don't think polls would be what they are if we didn't get hit with a pandemic (or another bad economic shock).

I think elections are much more about evaluating whether to keep the incumbent than deciding if the new option is better.

I don't think anyone will actually be voting for Biden because they think he'll be a good president. I think they could put in any "not Trump" option right now and they'd be at about the same place.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #377 on: August 07, 2020, 08:07:31 AM »
I think Biden will be a good president.

I think there are scores of voters who supported him during his two decades in the Senate that support him now.

Unlike our current President, Biden has a ton of experience as an elected official.  You might not agree with his particular policies or approach, but it's hard to deny he knows what he is doing.  Unless you subscribe to the theory that he's gone senile, which is probably why team Trump has been pushing that so hard.  Attack the opponent's strength... classic GOP strategy.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #378 on: August 07, 2020, 08:26:50 AM »
The right is simultaneously running on “Biden is weak and senile” and “Biden will take all your guns and destroy democracy and our country.”

It’s a little hard to take seriously.

It's like they missed the Wallace and Swan interviews with Trump. Now that's a shit show.

As someone above posted, if Trump keeps doing interviews like those, Biden doesn't have to do a thing.

I live in the US but can't vote yet (probably next time).

I don't understand how people don't see that they both really suck.

Like the argument above about Biden being better because he probably assaulted fewer women that Trump.


That was not the argument. There has been a total of one accusation of sexual assault against Biden and at this point it does not seem a particularly credible accusation. Making people uncomfortable is not assault. Phrasing this as "probably assaulted fewer women" is extremely misleading.

Quote
They're probably both in cognative decline, but it seems more obvious in Biden.

I'll probably never be able to wrap my head around this opinion, but it's a surprisingly common one. Perhaps it comes from people who only see the clips where Biden screws up but never actually see him give a full speech?

Here's the first video of Biden giving a speech I found on google, about 3 weeks ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJUXUFGN2Ew

Is he a great speaker? Not in my opinion. But Trump isn't capable of speaking like this. When Trump gives a prepared speech, his eyes barely leave the notes in front of him and he visibly struggles with unfamiliar words. He can't memorize for shit. It's often obvious that he doesn't even understand the concepts he's talking about. When he ad libs he's often incoherent, his grammar is incorrect more often than not. Many of his sentences have no structure at all, he just throws out related words and his supporters piece them together based on key words and phrases they've already had beaten into their heads by conservative media.

Quote
I also don't get how the US doesn't have a max age for POTUS.

We can certainly agree on that. Even if someone is all there on election day, things can decline quickly at a certain age.

Kris

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #379 on: August 07, 2020, 08:28:43 AM »
The right is simultaneously running on “Biden is weak and senile” and “Biden will take all your guns and destroy democracy and our country.”

It’s a little hard to take seriously.

It's like they missed the Wallace and Swan interviews with Trump. Now that's a shit show.

As someone above posted, if Trump keeps doing interviews like those, Biden doesn't have to do a thing.

I live in the US but can't vote yet (probably next time).

I don't understand how people don't see that they both really suck.

Like the argument above about Biden being better because he probably assaulted fewer women that Trump.


That was not the argument. There has been a total of one accusation of sexual assault against Biden and at this point it does not seem a particularly credible accusation. Making people uncomfortable is not assault. Phrasing this as "probably assaulted fewer women" is extremely misleading.

Quote
They're probably both in cognative decline, but it seems more obvious in Biden.

I'll probably never be able to wrap my head around this opinion, but it's a surprisingly common one. Perhaps it comes from people who only see the clips where Biden screws up but never actually see him give a full speech?

Here's the first video of Biden giving a speech I found on google, about 3 weeks ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJUXUFGN2Ew

Is he a great speaker? Not in my opinion. But Trump isn't capable of speaking like this. When Trump gives a prepared speech, his eyes barely leave the notes in front of him and he visibly struggles with unfamiliar words. He can't memorize for shit. It's often obvious that he doesn't even understand the concepts he's talking about. When he ad libs he's often incoherent, his grammar is incorrect more often than not. Many of his sentences have no structure at all, he just throws out related words and his supporters piece them together based on key words and phrases they've already had beaten into their heads by conservative media.

Quote
I also don't get how the US doesn't have a max age for POTUS.

We can certainly agree on that. Even if someone is all there on election day, things can decline quickly at a certain age.

Biden is the one with cognitive decline. Meanwhile, Trump can't pronounce "Yosemite" or "Thailand."

Right...

chesebert

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #380 on: August 07, 2020, 11:33:02 AM »
I am waiting for the debates.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #381 on: August 07, 2020, 11:40:38 AM »
I am waiting for the debates.

What do you hope to learn from the debates @chesebert?

ender

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #382 on: August 07, 2020, 01:00:30 PM »

NorthernBlitz

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #383 on: August 07, 2020, 01:13:16 PM »
The right is simultaneously running on “Biden is weak and senile” and “Biden will take all your guns and destroy democracy and our country.”

It’s a little hard to take seriously.

It's like they missed the Wallace and Swan interviews with Trump. Now that's a shit show.

As someone above posted, if Trump keeps doing interviews like those, Biden doesn't have to do a thing.

I live in the US but can't vote yet (probably next time).

I don't understand how people don't see that they both really suck.

Like the argument above about Biden being better because he probably assaulted fewer women that Trump.


That was not the argument. There has been a total of one accusation of sexual assault against Biden and at this point it does not seem a particularly credible accusation. Making people uncomfortable is not assault. Phrasing this as "probably assaulted fewer women" is extremely misleading.

Quote
They're probably both in cognative decline, but it seems more obvious in Biden.

I'll probably never be able to wrap my head around this opinion, but it's a surprisingly common one. Perhaps it comes from people who only see the clips where Biden screws up but never actually see him give a full speech?

Here's the first video of Biden giving a speech I found on google, about 3 weeks ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJUXUFGN2Ew

Is he a great speaker? Not in my opinion. But Trump isn't capable of speaking like this. When Trump gives a prepared speech, his eyes barely leave the notes in front of him and he visibly struggles with unfamiliar words. He can't memorize for shit. It's often obvious that he doesn't even understand the concepts he's talking about. When he ad libs he's often incoherent, his grammar is incorrect more often than not. Many of his sentences have no structure at all, he just throws out related words and his supporters piece them together based on key words and phrases they've already had beaten into their heads by conservative media.

Quote
I also don't get how the US doesn't have a max age for POTUS.

We can certainly agree on that. Even if someone is all there on election day, things can decline quickly at a certain age.

Biden is the one with cognitive decline. Meanwhile, Trump can't pronounce "Yosemite" or "Thailand."

Right...

I don't get why you don't think they're both in decline. This seems pretty obvious from someone living in the US who can't vote and doesn't have a team.

I think it's pretty clear they're both too old for the job they're seeking.

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #384 on: August 07, 2020, 01:28:52 PM »
I don't get why you don't think they're both in decline. This seems pretty obvious from someone living in the US who can't vote and doesn't have a team.

I think it's pretty clear they're both too old for the job they're seeking.

Oh, yeah, they're both too old.

That doesn't mean that a vote for one is the same as a vote for the other.

NorthernBlitz

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #385 on: August 07, 2020, 01:38:46 PM »
I don't get why you don't think they're both in decline. This seems pretty obvious from someone living in the US who can't vote and doesn't have a team.

I think it's pretty clear they're both too old for the job they're seeking.

Oh, yeah, they're both too old.

That doesn't mean that a vote for one is the same as a vote for the other.

Is someone making that argument?

Because I don't think I did (and I don't agree with that statement).

I do think that having someone who wasn't in their mid to late seventies would increase our chances of having a positive outcome (instead of being forced to cheer for a less negative one).

Davnasty

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #386 on: August 07, 2020, 01:40:20 PM »
...snip

I don't get why you don't think they're both in decline. This seems pretty obvious from someone living in the US who can't vote and doesn't have a team.

I think it's pretty clear they're both too old for the job they're seeking.

Should have bolded the portion I was responding to:

Quote
...but it seems more obvious in Biden...

They probably are both in decline, as are most people at their age.

mm1970

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #387 on: August 07, 2020, 04:23:44 PM »
I agree we should take nothing for granted, but at this moment in time Biden is well ahead of where both HRC and Obama were at during this same stage of their campaigns.

Well  . . . yeah.  He's white, Christian, and male.  History has shown us that those are the three most important qualifications to being president of the United States.

I agree the Dems chose him specifically because of his age, race, and gender. But I don't think that strategy is a good one personally (particularly when remembering who the president before this one was).

I think Biden's lead is more about people being pretty dissatisfied with how Trump has handled the pandemic. I don't think the polls would be much different if it was any of the candidates that were in the primary this time (or HRC again). I also don't think polls would be what they are if we didn't get hit with a pandemic (or another bad economic shock).

I think elections are much more about evaluating whether to keep the incumbent than deciding if the new option is better.

I don't think anyone will actually be voting for Biden because they think he'll be a good president. I think they could put in any "not Trump" option right now and they'd be at about the same place.
I'd like to agree with you, but no.

Gotta be an older while male.

Too many sexist misogynists.


nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #388 on: August 10, 2020, 11:11:09 AM »
I don't get why you don't think they're both in decline. This seems pretty obvious from someone living in the US who can't vote and doesn't have a team.

I think it's pretty clear they're both too old for the job they're seeking.


Oh, yeah, they're both too old.

That doesn't mean that a vote for one is the same as a vote for the other.

Is someone making that argument?

Because I don't think I did (and I don't agree with that statement).

I do think that having someone who wasn't in their mid to late seventies would increase our chances of having a positive outcome (instead of being forced to cheer for a less negative one).

You seem to be making the argument by concluding that they are both too old, and both in cognitive decline.
By suggesting that both should be eliminated for the same reason (their age) you've set up an equivalence.

You've also made the bold (and false) statement that "no one will actually be voting for Biden because they think he'll be a good president"

caracarn

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #389 on: August 10, 2020, 12:35:18 PM »
As I watch things unfold, as a lifelong Republican, this has been depressing.

I have to admit, the Democrats have a long term strategy in place that seems sound and well thought out.  Biden is a transition president to get to the younger generation.  The Republicans have been imploding for some time, well before Trump (he's just a symptom).  They have not had an ability to win the popular vote for at least a decade, and really more, and have only gotten the wins they have because of gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics, which is pathetic.  This is what creates the issue just brought up of no one is voting for anyone because they are any good.  We've been past that for a while.  Would be nice to get back there, but no idea if we ever will.

I did not vote or Trump the first time and will not again for the same reasons.  He's unqualified and lacks the character to be a leader.  The Democrats have a better farm system to create future candidates that can be qualified and inspiring.  The Republicans are very thin here and all of them tend to be old and will not be available in the future even if we wanted them to be.

I am optimistic for Biden and think the real result will be very similar to how this poll is trending as I write this with Biden taking about 60% of the vote and Trump getting less than 40%, as only his base (35%) and perhaps a percentage point or two go his way.  I am optimistic that he can get things done and given that he's more moderate than some of the alternatives, I have no heartburn as a Republican voting for him and getting the full Congress to the Democrats.  It is honestly the only thing that may force the Republican Party to figure this shit out and stop doing the same old, same old to try to hang on.  Trump did blow things up, sadly it was mainly the Republican party, or what is left of it.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #390 on: August 11, 2020, 06:35:50 PM »
A friend who cared for his mother through her decline and death from Alzheimer’s says,

“I’ve dealt with someone with Alzheimers and I say this with all sincerity and heavy heart…if Biden/Harris win, when they sit Joe down to explain to him why he has to step down and appoint Harris his successor, it’s going to be a very very unpleasant scene.”

“And he’s on the precipice. He’s got a big fall coming, before he hits a short, narrow plateau. The one after that will be even worse. Again, I know.”

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #391 on: August 11, 2020, 07:43:08 PM »
Meh.  A completely incoherent and Alzheimer's ridden Biden would be significantly less damaging to the country than Donald Trump has been.  Reagan was showing clear signs of Alzheimer's in his second term, and he still managed to keep things together better than a very stable genius we all know and love.

Bateaux

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #392 on: August 11, 2020, 07:46:09 PM »
As I watch things unfold, as a lifelong Republican, this has been depressing.

I have to admit, the Democrats have a long term strategy in place that seems sound and well thought out.  Biden is a transition president to get to the younger generation.  The Republicans have been imploding for some time, well before Trump (he's just a symptom).  They have not had an ability to win the popular vote for at least a decade, and really more, and have only gotten the wins they have because of gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics, which is pathetic.  This is what creates the issue just brought up of no one is voting for anyone because they are any good.  We've been past that for a while.  Would be nice to get back there, but no idea if we ever will.

I did not vote or Trump the first time and will not again for the same reasons.  He's unqualified and lacks the character to be a leader.  The Democrats have a better farm system to create future candidates that can be qualified and inspiring.  The Republicans are very thin here and all of them tend to be old and will not be available in the future even if we wanted them to be.

I am optimistic for Biden and think the real result will be very similar to how this poll is trending as I write this with Biden taking about 60% of the vote and Trump getting less than 40%, as only his base (35%) and perhaps a percentage point or two go his way.  I am optimistic that he can get things done and given that he's more moderate than some of the alternatives, I have no heartburn as a Republican voting for him and getting the full Congress to the Democrats.  It is honestly the only thing that may force the Republican Party to figure this shit out and stop doing the same old, same old to try to hang on.  Trump did blow things up, sadly it was mainly the Republican party, or what is left of it.

I registered as a Republican in 1986.  I cannot believe what represents the party of Reagan now.  I changed party affiliation to Democrat and voted for Sanders in 2016.  I'm now registered Libertarian. 

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #393 on: August 11, 2020, 08:00:39 PM »
I'm now registered Libertarian.

That is like not voting at all.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #394 on: August 11, 2020, 08:11:12 PM »
A friend who cared for his mother through her decline and death from Alzheimer’s says,

“I’ve dealt with someone with Alzheimers and I say this with all sincerity and heavy heart…if Biden/Harris win, when they sit Joe down to explain to him why he has to step down and appoint Harris his successor, it’s going to be a very very unpleasant scene.”

“And he’s on the precipice. He’s got a big fall coming, before he hits a short, narrow plateau. The one after that will be even worse. Again, I know.”


After the rumblings to use 25th Amendment to remove Trump, it would be pretty interesting if Biden was the one affected by it.

Abe

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #395 on: August 11, 2020, 10:07:47 PM »
A friend who cared for his mother through her decline and death from Alzheimer’s says,

“I’ve dealt with someone with Alzheimers and I say this with all sincerity and heavy heart…if Biden/Harris win, when they sit Joe down to explain to him why he has to step down and appoint Harris his successor, it’s going to be a very very unpleasant scene.”

“And he’s on the precipice. He’s got a big fall coming, before he hits a short, narrow plateau. The one after that will be even worse. Again, I know.”


After the rumblings to use 25th Amendment to remove Trump, it would be pretty interesting if Biden was the one affected by it.

Based on the incidence in the US, there's only a ~5% individual risk of having dementia of any cause at their respective ages.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #396 on: August 12, 2020, 04:31:40 AM »
A friend who cared for his mother through her decline and death from Alzheimer’s says,

“I’ve dealt with someone with Alzheimers and I say this with all sincerity and heavy heart…if Biden/Harris win, when they sit Joe down to explain to him why he has to step down and appoint Harris his successor, it’s going to be a very very unpleasant scene.”

“And he’s on the precipice. He’s got a big fall coming, before he hits a short, narrow plateau. The one after that will be even worse. Again, I know.”


After the rumblings to use 25th Amendment to remove Trump, it would be pretty interesting if Biden was the one affected by it.

Based on the incidence in the US, there's only a ~5% individual risk of having dementia of any cause at their respective ages.

Perhaps what the poster was trying to say is that people are biased by their experiences.  His “friend” had to deal with caring for a loved one with Alzheimer’s, so he projects this illness on others.  It’s actually a very common reaction.  It’s fed by all the conspiracy-theory and attack adds until he becomes absolutely convinced despite scores of others with both direct access and training concluding there’s no such thing.

jim555

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #397 on: August 12, 2020, 05:36:01 AM »
How much do the shills get paid for each "Biden dementia" posting?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #398 on: August 12, 2020, 06:12:08 AM »

Based on the incidence in the US, there's only a ~5% individual risk of having dementia of any cause at their respective ages.

So they are more likely to have dementia than the average person is likely to die of COVID19.

LWYRUP

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #399 on: August 12, 2020, 06:16:30 AM »
I'm now registered Libertarian.

That is like not voting at all.

Why?  I don't live in a swing state.  My vote is changing zippo.  No single vote has ever changed a presidential election.  May as well vote your conscience.