Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?

[DoubleDown]

Trump supporters must come in all stripes.

The ones I know (all elderly) are all woefully ignorant of what's going on. Whenever I've tried to gently prod them as to how they could support such an abomination, particularly since he acts in ways that are not even aligned to their own interests, they are always clueless about what I'm talking about, even events that made national news for weeks. For example, when I asked one Trump supporter about Trump's racist/dog whistle proclivities such as evidenced in the reactions to the Charlottesville white supremacy rallies, they had no idea such rallies had even occurred. They did not know thousands had marched with torches through the streets chanting "Jews will not replace us!," that one of them had rammed his car into a crowd or protesters killing one young woman, and that Trump had reacted by saying there were "fine people on both sides." This event dominated the news for at least a week or two, and they had no idea it had even occurred.

The only source I ever hear them cite as to where they get their information is Facebook.

[talltexan]

Scott Adams has gone on the record as saying that many Trump supporters are just fucking with pollsters by saying that they won't vote for him now, but they'll show up the day of the election and--with no one looking--vote for him to stay in the White House.

[nereo]

Scott Adams has gone on the record as saying that many Trump supporters are just fucking with pollsters by saying that they won't vote for him now, but they'll show up the day of the election and--with no one looking--vote for him to stay in the White House.

Can someone explain to me why Scott Adam's opinion on what people think about Trump carries so much water?  I really don't get it.

As for what people will do behind the curtain of a voting booth... that's literally one of the biggest challenges of political science; understanding and predicting when people's responses won't line up with their actions.  I'm pretty sure I know a few 'dyed-in-the-wool-Republicans" that might pull the lever for either Biden or a 3rd party but would never, ever admit as much in public because of the percieved backlash they might face from other big 'R' Republicans.

[bacchi]

Scott Adams has gone on the record as saying that many Trump supporters are just fucking with pollsters by saying that they won't vote for him now, but they'll show up the day of the election and--with no one looking--vote for him to stay in the White House.

Probably true. I do the opposite. I'm an enthusiastic supporter for Trump whenever a pollster calls.

But Trump barely won last time and Biden is more ahead (and it is way early still) than Hillary. Has the number of fakers increased since 2016?

[sherr]

Scott Adams has gone on the record as saying that many Trump supporters are just fucking with pollsters by saying that they won't vote for him now, but they'll show up the day of the election and--with no one looking--vote for him to stay in the White House.

Can someone explain to me why Scott Adam's opinion on what people think about Trump carries so much water?  I really don't get it.

Scott Adams went all-in on stars-in-his-eyes can-do-no-wrong Trump fanboyism before Trump even won the Republican nomination. He was saying that Trump was a shoe-in when the polls looked extremely unfavorable.

I don't think he's particularly insightful or that he know something that everyone else is missing, I think he just adores Trump and happened to get lucky this time. But credit where credit is due, he did call the results right the last time. And Adams is also doing everything in his power to twist people's minds enough to keep him in office.

[nereo]

Scott Adams has gone on the record as saying that many Trump supporters are just fucking with pollsters by saying that they won't vote for him now, but they'll show up the day of the election and--with no one looking--vote for him to stay in the White House.

Can someone explain to me why Scott Adam's opinion on what people think about Trump carries so much water?  I really don't get it.

Scott Adams went all-in on stars-in-his-eyes can-do-no-wrong Trump fanboyism before Trump even won the Republican nomination. He was saying that Trump was a shoe-in when the polls looked extremely unfavorable.

I don't think he's particularly insightful or that he know something that everyone else is missing, I think he just adores Trump and happened to get lucky this time. But credit where credit is due, he did call the results right the last time. And Adams is also doing everything in his power to twist people's minds enough to keep him in office.

I understand he was an early supporter - but what I don't understand is why his comments are given more gravitas than others who jumped on the Trump bandwagon.  Even if ignore the closeness that was 2016, it was one race.  Does Adams bring something that other observers don't?

[Kris]

Scott Adams has gone on the record as saying that many Trump supporters are just fucking with pollsters by saying that they won't vote for him now, but they'll show up the day of the election and--with no one looking--vote for him to stay in the White House.

Can someone explain to me why Scott Adam's opinion on what people think about Trump carries so much water?  I really don't get it.

Scott Adams went all-in on stars-in-his-eyes can-do-no-wrong Trump fanboyism before Trump even won the Republican nomination. He was saying that Trump was a shoe-in when the polls looked extremely unfavorable.

I don't think he's particularly insightful or that he know something that everyone else is missing, I think he just adores Trump and happened to get lucky this time. But credit where credit is due, he did call the results right the last time. And Adams is also doing everything in his power to twist people's minds enough to keep him in office.

I understand he was an early supporter - but what I don't understand is why his comments are given more gravitas than others who jumped on the Trump bandwagon.  Even if ignore the closeness that was 2016, it was one race.  Does Adams bring something that other observers don't?

Lots of libertarian fanboys, I suspect.

And also, maybe the confirmation bias of having him be "right" that Trump would win, so because of that one thing, they think he's right more often than he is?

(I mean, I predicted Trump would win before Scott Adams did, but I don't have a popular comic strip and I'm not a dude, so...)

[sherr]

I understand he was an early supporter - but what I don't understand is why his comments are given more gravitas than others who jumped on the Trump bandwagon.  Even if ignore the closeness that was 2016, it was one race.  Does Adams bring something that other observers don't?

Being an early supporter vs a bandwagon jumper is precisely why people give his opinion more weight.

[talltexan]

Indeed Adams' darkest moment was when he had to explain away the results of the 2018 midterms.

I doubt he is any worse than other political pundits.

[nereo]

Indeed Adams' darkest moment was when he had to explain away the results of the 2018 midterms.

I doubt he is any worse than other political pundits.

ok, but is he substantially better than most?  Doesn’t seem like it to me, hence my confusion as to why he commands such an audience when other, more experienced do not.

[BicycleB]

I'm hoping Adams isn't a prognostication genius, just an irritating partisan in politics. But his superb skewering of office politics and personalities in hundreds of cartoons appeared to make it plausible that he had some above average insight - he already had a track record of identifying and expressing things that other people felt. Add a correct early call to that in what some of us assumed was his first public venture into politics, suddenly some of us wondered if was on to something.

After reading more, I started feeling he's more of a guy-who-can't-get-a-date personality who's gone off the deep end.

[js82]

Scott Adams has gone on the record as saying that many Trump supporters are just fucking with pollsters by saying that they won't vote for him now, but they'll show up the day of the election and--with no one looking--vote for him to stay in the White House.

I don't think it's anything so clever as "fucking with pollsters" as much as some people will say what they think is most socially acceptable to another human being, then do something different in the privacy of the voting booth.  And that's not a new phenomenon in politics - just stronger with Trump than with some other candidates.

The question is how many people who have been critical of Trump's actions because it's the socially acceptable stance to take, will still vote for him in November - and how that figure compares to November of 2016.

[Abe]

Looking at polling data in the last month prior to the 2016 election compared to actual voting results, most of the states that swung to trump were predicted in the final polling. Ohio was the outlier with 8% higher votes for Trump than expected from polling. The others were within the margin of error for polls (3-4%).  I think the trend in the last few weeks will be fairly accurate. Right now it hard to say anything definitive. Even accounting for the errors seek in the 2016 polls, Biden would win PA and MI now. The others are within margin of error.

[talltexan]

After Ohio was so tight in 2012 (I voted in Cincinnati in that election), I must confess I was surprised at how easily Trump outran Clinton there.

[nereo]

After Ohio was so tight in 2012 (I voted in Cincinnati in that election), I must confess I was surprised at how easily Trump outran Clinton there.

Just musing out loud here... but I wonder how much of that is just hte oscillation away from the party in power.  After eight years under Obama and having the mystic of "Hope" get tarnished by the reality of a large political government I suspect many just wanted a change.... much like they shifted away from the GOP in 2008 after 8 years under Bush.

Trump's in term 1, so how far might the pendulum swing this time around?  Won't take much if the previous election is any indication

[DoubleDown]

Things are getting worse (thank God) for Trump's reelection according to most recent polls. We can only hope it holds and that a black swan event doesn't upset everything!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/trumps-2020-polls-are-getting-worse-heres-proof/ar-BB15z79E?li=BBnb7Kz

[LaineyAZ]

From a senior friend here in our red/purplish state who lives in a 55+ heavily Republican community:  she's hearing that many of former Trump supporters are disappointed in him and do not plan to vote for him again; however, they still can't bring themselves to vote for Biden either, so they will leave the presidential space blank on the ballot.

Not sure how that's going to play out in the final vote tally.

[Wrenchturner]

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson will win as an independent.

(Probably not)

[js82]

From a senior friend here in our red/purplish state who lives in a 55+ heavily Republican community:  she's hearing that many of former Trump supporters are disappointed in him and do not plan to vote for him again; however, they still can't bring themselves to vote for Biden either, so they will leave the presidential space blank on the ballot.

Not sure how that's going to play out in the final vote tally.

The "Neither" demographic was pretty sizeable in 2016 as well - at least based on my own anecdotal sampling of friends/relatives.  There were tons of people(mostly the types of republicans that Trump has alienated) who didn't like Trump, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Hillary.  Hillary Clinton was a candidate that the Republican party had literally spent decades smearing to the greatest extent possible, and regardless of who the Republican candidate was, many from the Republican party were eager to vote *against* Clinton.

In this respect, Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton.  My gut says that republicans/right-leaning centrists who don't like Trump will be less against the idea of voting for Biden than they were Clinton - but this is not based on any data or polling - just my anecdotal observation of how the two are viewed.

[nereo]

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson will win as an independent.

(Probably not)

Is he on the ballot?  Also, I believe he has given up the nickname “the rock”.

[Leisured]

Trump supporters must come in all stripes.

The ones I know (all elderly) are all woefully ignorant of what's going on. Whenever I've tried to gently prod them as to how they could support such an abomination, particularly since he acts in ways that are not even aligned to their own interests, they are always clueless about what I'm talking about, even events that made national news for weeks. For example, when I asked one Trump supporter about Trump's racist/dog whistle proclivities such as evidenced in the reactions to the Charlottesville white supremacy rallies, they had no idea such rallies had even occurred. They did not know thousands had marched with torches through the streets chanting "Jews will not replace us!," that one of them had rammed his car into a crowd or protesters killing one young woman, and that Trump had reacted by saying there were "fine people on both sides." This event dominated the news for at least a week or two, and they had no idea it had even occurred.

The only source I ever hear them cite as to where they get their information is Facebook.

Interesting comment. I am Australian, and here your get fined if you do not vote. I heard that in 2016 there were many middle aged Americans who voted for the first time in their lives. People like the ones Double Down describes provide what is known in Australia as the 'donkey vote'; they have to vote but they do not know what they are doing.

From down under, my feeling is that many Trump supporters are so disturbed by Trump's obvious incapacity for office that they will not vote for him again. Or to put it another way, who is going to vote for Trump now that did not vote for him in 2016.

And this time anti Trump voters will actually get on their feet, go out, and VOTE.

America has been the 'city on the hill' for about two hundred years. Citizens of dysfunctional countries still look to America to be a beacon, even if they do not expect the same excellence in government from their own leaders. I am 75, and America has been great for as long as I can remember, recently in spite of Trump.



 

[talltexan]

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson will win as an independent.

(Probably not)

Is he on the ballot?  Also, I believe he has given up the nickname “the rock”.

It was a colossal project:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwinyNTf6ojqAhWaRDABHbnIDI4QFjAAegQIBRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fentertainment.theonion.com%2F12-publicists-dead-43-injured-in-struggle-to-transform-1819570748&usg=AOvVaw1dEv_Qn7mAfH2YhECBRyM-

[nereo]

Or to put it another way, who is going to vote for Trump now that did not vote for him in 2016.

This is the one question I keep coming back to.  To get re-elected, Trump either needs to increase his overall support OR depress turnout against him.  Due to demographic shifts and the closeness of the 2016 election he'll lose if each major demographic has similar turnout and support.

Given his conduct and polling, it seems unlikely that he will have MORE support in November than he had in 2016. Which leaves voter turnout.

On one hand, he's the incumbent and turnout is typically much lower when an incumbent is on the ballot.  That could be what gets him re-elected
OTOH, the GOP was pretty effective at limiting voting and reducing enthusiasm for HRC, which makes it that much harder to further reduce support for Biden.  There's also an unusually high number of people who are politically active at this moment in time.

The latest polls show Biden well ahead in all the states that Trump narrowly won in 2016 (MI, WI, PA & FL) and still behind in the close states that he lost (MI, NV, ME).  No other states have had a dramatic 'flip', though several 'red' states he comfortably won are much closer than anyone predicted, and some polls have within 2 points (eg. TX and GA).

[GuitarStv]

Or to put it another way, who is going to vote for Trump now that did not vote for him in 2016.

This is the one question I keep coming back to.  To get re-elected, Trump either needs to increase his overall support OR depress turnout against him.  Due to demographic shifts and the closeness of the 2016 election he'll lose if each major demographic has similar turnout and support.

Given his conduct and polling, it seems unlikely that he will have MORE support in November than he had in 2016. Which leaves voter turnout.

On one hand, he's the incumbent and turnout is typically much lower when an incumbent is on the ballot.  That could be what gets him re-elected
OTOH, the GOP was pretty effective at limiting voting and reducing enthusiasm for HRC, which makes it that much harder to further reduce support for Biden.  There's also an unusually high number of people who are politically active at this moment in time.

The latest polls show Biden well ahead in all the states that Trump narrowly won in 2016 (MI, WI, PA & FL) and still behind in the close states that he lost (MI, NV, ME).  No other states have had a dramatic 'flip', though several 'red' states he comfortably won are much closer than anyone predicted, and some polls have within 2 points (eg. TX and GA).

Coronavirus has given Trump unprecedented ability to depress and suppress voting in the 2020 election.  So far, every indication is that he is aware of this and is capitalizing on it.

[nereo]

Coronavirus has given Trump unprecedented ability to depress and suppress voting in the 2020 election.  So far, every indication is that he is aware of this and is capitalizing on it.

I agree.  It will be interesting to see which forces prevail - those that are hellbent on voting and change, as indicated by record turnout in a number of elections across the country in the last two years, or the supression efforts currently underway and backed by the full force of multiple republican governors and hollow "emergency orders"

[Wrenchturner]

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson will win as an independent.

(Probably not)

Is he on the ballot? 

Not yet, but neither is Biden's VP!

[nereo]

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson will win as an independent.

(Probably not)

Is he on the ballot? 

well he is black, but not a woman.  still, I'd vote for that combo over Trump/Pence in a heart-beat.  Of course I'd vote for Biden & Potted Plant, too.

Trump's derroguatory nickname for Biden is "Sleepy Joe".  After the last 3 years I would be THRILLED to have our WH be as boring as possible.  Bland, predictable public policy.  No daily outrages.  Boring overall competence.  No more hearing the lead into the news and instinctively thinkking "oh god, what has he done now?"  I'd love to tune out for a few months and find that I've missed absolutely nothing of substance in the executive branch.

Not yet, but neither is Biden's VP!

[Wrenchturner]

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson will win as an independent.

(Probably not)

Is he on the ballot?  Also, I believe he has given up the nickname “the rock”.

It was a colossal project:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwinyNTf6ojqAhWaRDABHbnIDI4QFjAAegQIBRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fentertainment.theonion.com%2F12-publicists-dead-43-injured-in-struggle-to-transform-1819570748&usg=AOvVaw1dEv_Qn7mAfH2YhECBRyM-

Lol!

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1273241089961611267

The average of all national polls (17 of them) since 6/2 show Biden up +10.6.

Biden is also widening leads in virtually every battleground state.

[talltexan]

I'm sympathetic to the idea that Trump will outperform his polling because a lot of people will quietly vote for him but don't want to admit it socially.

I'm sympathetic to the idea that Biden has to roll up a substantial popular vote advantage because the electoral map favors Republicans right now.

But if we were on the path toward a convincing Biden victory, it would look like this at this moment, wouldn't it?

[Kris]

I'm sympathetic to the idea that Trump will outperform his polling because a lot of people will quietly vote for him but don't want to admit it socially.

I'm sympathetic to the idea that Biden has to roll up a substantial popular vote advantage because the electoral map favors Republicans right now.

But if we were on the path toward a convincing Biden victory, it would look like this at this moment, wouldn't it?

I think so. But yeah, it doesn't make it certain. No complacency allowed.

[GuitarStv]

We'll have to see how well the Republicans can suppress the vote this time.

[Kris]

We'll have to see how well the Republicans can suppress the vote this time.

They are working really hard at it. Not to be underestimated.

[nereo]

But if we were on the path toward a convincing Biden victory, it would look like this at this moment, wouldn't it?

What we see now basically mirrors other incumbent losses (i.e. Bush Sr and Carter).  Trump has remained significantly underwater with his own popularity, he's behind or within the margin of error in every battleground state, the economy is in recession and unemployment is high.

With the caveat that a great deal can and will change in the next 5 months... yeah, this is what you'd expect to see for a convincing Biden victory.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I voted for the 3rd party candidate - the Coronavirus, it'll write itself in.  It's bound to surge going in to November if not sooner.

Sounds like the Coronavirus held a rally for itself in Tulsa yesterday.  Millions of strands showed up and really spread their message! 

“I don’t mind going into the arena with the pandemic and the spikes because that’s the beautiful thing about our country—I know that I am fully taking on the risk of possibly encountering or being exposed [to the virus], but as an American, that’s my right,” one Trump supporter told CNN.

Instead of MAGA, it should be MERS on the red hat - Make Everyone Really Sick

[Roland of Gilead]

Trump is going to get A LOT of the quiet vote, especially from the older generation who are resistant to change and do not like to see things like CHOP.

It will be close but right now I think Trump will win by a small amount.

[bacchi]

Trump is going to get A LOT of the quiet vote, especially from the older generation who are resistant to change and do not like to see things like CHOP.

It will be close but right now I think Trump will win by a small amount.

I expect Biden to get a lot of the quiet vote. That is, those who voted for Trump in 2016 but won't vote for him this time and are afraid to reveal their vote change to their family and friends.

[Kris]

Trump is going to get A LOT of the quiet vote, especially from the older generation who are resistant to change and do not like to see things like CHOP.

It will be close but right now I think Trump will win by a small amount.

I expect Biden to get a lot of the quiet vote. That is, those who voted for Trump in 2016 but won't vote for him this time and are afraid to reveal their vote change to their family and friends.

I’ve been thinking about that, too.

Or their colleagues in Congress.

[js82]

Trump is going to get A LOT of the quiet vote, especially from the older generation who are resistant to change and do not like to see things like CHOP.

It will be close but right now I think Trump will win by a small amount.

I expect Biden to get a lot of the quiet vote. That is, those who voted for Trump in 2016 but won't vote for him this time and are afraid to reveal their vote change to their family and friends.

The wild card in this, to me, is how the "I don't like either of them all that much" group breaks.

The "Not Hillary" effect was pretty strong in 2016 - lots of people who weren't sold on Trump (particularly independents and more moderate republicans) still weren't willing to vote for Hillary.  While Republicans still don't like Biden, I expect the resistance to voting for Biden among the "Not Trump" crowd won't be as strong as the resistance to voting for Clinton.

And on the other side you have the fraction of republicans/right-leaning independents who didn't like/support Trump early on, but will now probably vote for him because tax cuts and judges.

At this point it's not clear to me exactly how the above groups will play out - although some early polling has suggested that Biden will do better than Hillary did with the "I dislike both of them" voters.

[nereo]

Trump is going to get A LOT of the quiet vote, especially from the older generation who are resistant to change and do not like to see things like CHOP.

It will be close but right now I think Trump will win by a small amount.

Older generation that is resistant to change seems more like Biden than Trump to me, TBH.
Even three years in Trump still continuously does stuff that a president isn’t “supposed” to do. That’s his appeal to those who just want to blow everything up.  Biden is old school, long term establishment. He’s been in national politics longer than I’ve been alive - five decades and counting.

Polling right now supports this notion - Trump is running behind with voters over 65.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I'm backing Hilary this time. It's crazy, I know, but we need a true-believer in the administrative technocratic state to reform it. Our institutions are broken (a problem predating Trump) and we need strong leadership to fix it. Biden is a basement creep.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

I'm backing Hilary this time. It's crazy, I know, but we need a true-believer in the administrative technocratic state to reform it. Our institutions are broken (a problem predating Trump) and we need strong leadership to fix it. Biden is a basement creep.

As a write in......?

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I'm backing Hilary this time. It's crazy, I know, but we need a true-believer in the administrative technocratic state to reform it. Our institutions are broken (a problem predating Trump) and we need strong leadership to fix it. Biden is a basement creep.

As a write in......?

There is a lot of time between now and November so who knows what could happen. HC is in third place!

[nereo]

I'm backing Hilary this time. It's crazy, I know, but we need a true-believer in the administrative technocratic state to reform it. Our institutions are broken (a problem predating Trump) and we need strong leadership to fix it. Biden is a basement creep.

As a write in......?

There is a lot of time between now and November so who knows what could happen. HC is in third place!

When am I going to learn not to click on random links posted in this forum?  So terribly stupid.  I weep for humanity.

[talltexan]

Amazing how 3 1/2 years of a Trump Presidency have people so beaten up emotionally that they're ready to support returning the Clintons to the White House.

[nereo]

Amazing how 3 1/2 years of a Trump Presidency have people so beaten up emotionally that they're ready to support returning the Clintons to the White House.

I know this is a well trodden road, but what was so terrible about HRC again?  To put it in marketing terms, she seemed to have an image problem, but her policies and experience seemed mainstream enough for the Democratic party.

[GuitarStv]

Amazing how 3 1/2 years of a Trump Presidency have people so beaten up emotionally that they're ready to support returning the Clintons to the White House.

I know this is a well trodden road, but what was so terrible about HRC again?  To put it in marketing terms, she seemed to have an image problem, but her policies and experience seemed mainstream enough for the Democratic party.

So much was wrong with Clinton.

She supported a Muslim Kenyan terrorist in his bid to become president.  BENGGHHHHHAAAZZZZZZIIIIIIII!   Email server scandal (that wasn't a scandal when the same thing happened with Trump's daughter).  Then there were the accusations of conflicts of interest on Clinton's side from the man who refused to place his real-estate and business dealings in a blind trust.  Also, she had experience in multiple different government positions - and since when do you want to hire someone to do an important job who has experience?

[nereo]

Amazing how 3 1/2 years of a Trump Presidency have people so beaten up emotionally that they're ready to support returning the Clintons to the White House.

I know this is a well trodden road, but what was so terrible about HRC again?  To put it in marketing terms, she seemed to have an image problem, but her policies and experience seemed mainstream enough for the Democratic party.

So much was wrong with Clinton.

She supported a Muslim Kenyan terrorist in his bid to become president.  BENGGHHHHHAAAZZZZZZIIIIIIII!   Email server scandal (that wasn't a scandal when the same thing happened with Trump's daughter).  Then there were the accusations of conflicts of interest on Clinton's side from the man who refused to place his real-estate and business dealings in a blind trust.  Also, she had experience in multiple different government positions - and since when do you want to hire someone to do an important job who has experience?

As I said... image problems.  Not substance problems. People keep repeating "But Hilary was just SO BAD!" without ever defining what was so terrible about her - particularly with context against her opponent and other likely Democratic candidates.

[talltexan]

If Biden defeats Trump where Clinton failed, we'll simply have to conclude that he was a stronger candidate for some reason, although I must acknowledge:

it probably has much more to do with Trump the suitor being more attractive than a Donald Trump now that we've seen what he is actually like as President. I cannot imagine Clinton wanting to put herself through a second campaign against Trump (particularly Trump), who was so willing to slime her. Despite Trump's unpopularity, I suspect he'd beat Clinton again if they matched up in this cycle because of the systematic investments conservative media have been making since the mid-1990's to ensure that she is un-electable.

Truthfully, I wonder why anyone is willing to run ever.

[nereo]

If Biden defeats Trump where Clinton failed, we'll simply have to conclude that he was a stronger candidate for some reason, although I must acknowledge:

it probably has much more to do with Trump the suitor being more attractive than a Donald Trump now that we've seen what he is actually like as President. I cannot imagine Clinton wanting to put herself through a second campaign against Trump (particularly Trump), who was so willing to slime her. Despite Trump's unpopularity, I suspect he'd beat Clinton again if they matched up in this cycle because of the systematic investments conservative media have been making since the mid-1990's to ensure that she is un-electable.

Truthfully, I wonder why anyone is willing to run ever.

So there are two possible conclusions which could be made should Trump lose in November:
Biden is a stronger candidate than HRC
Trump is much weaker than he was in 2016.

Those are not mutually exclusive.

Herein lies the inherent challenge with ever making comparisions between matchups, be they political or sport.  If A beats B, and then C beats A years later, it doesn't mean that C is better than B, even though many will claim that to be the case.