Author Topic: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )  (Read 359650 times)

PDXTabs

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #500 on: August 12, 2021, 10:09:09 AM »
Also, does anyone remember when the US was energy independent at the same time that the economy was growing at a 3% rate?  In case you forgot that was 2019 under President mean-tweets.

Yea, but we were never oil independent. We were exporting natural gas and importing oil and then calling ourselves independent. Do you happen to know where I can find numbers for this year?

Tyler durden

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #501 on: August 12, 2021, 10:39:30 AM »
Also, does anyone remember when the US was energy independent at the same time that the economy was growing at a 3% rate?  In case you forgot that was 2019 under President mean-tweets.

Yea, but we were never oil independent. We were exporting natural gas and importing oil and then calling ourselves independent. Do you happen to know where I can find numbers for this year?

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42735

Net petroleum trade is calculated as the total imports of crude oil and petroleum products minus the total exports of crude oil and petroleum products. In September 2019, the United States became a net petroleum exporter for the first time since monthly records began in 1973.

nereo

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #502 on: August 12, 2021, 11:21:11 AM »
I'm a bit confused as to whether the criticism is about canceling the Keystone XL expansion, or encouraging other Putin and OPEC to pump more oil.

PDXTabs

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #503 on: August 12, 2021, 11:43:28 AM »
Also, does anyone remember when the US was energy independent at the same time that the economy was growing at a 3% rate?  In case you forgot that was 2019 under President mean-tweets.

Yea, but we were never oil independent. We were exporting natural gas and importing oil and then calling ourselves independent. Do you happen to know where I can find numbers for this year?

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42735

Net petroleum trade is calculated as the total imports of crude oil and petroleum products minus the total exports of crude oil and petroleum products. In September 2019, the United States became a net petroleum exporter for the first time since monthly records began in 1973.

I'm not sure what your point was, because I already said that. Anyway, I found the weekly data:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTNTUS2&f=W

Also, this is interesting:
The United States became a net annual petroleum exporter in 2020...

The majority of total U.S. petroleum exports are petroleum liquids and refined petroleum products

Because of logistical, regulatory, and quality considerations, exporting some petroleum is the most economical way to meet the market's needs. For example, refiners in the U.S. Gulf Coast region frequently find that it makes economic sense to export some of their gasoline to Mexico rather than shipping it to the U.S. East Coast because lower cost gasoline imports from Europe may be available to the East Coast.

Petroleum liquids include hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL). HGL exports, mainly propane, have increased substantially since 2008, and in 2020 represented about 25% of total gross petroleum exports.

- https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php

PDXTabs

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #504 on: August 12, 2021, 11:58:14 AM »
I don't think we need personal caps. Energy consumption is only 1/3 residential. And most places where people could reduce their consumption are highly limited. We need incentives and grants to improve older homes like adding higher levels of insulation to every building in the South so that they run the AC less, but the bigger savings are in larger government projects like expanding rail and adding more high-speed rail. Projects like that have the ability to reduce US consumption by >5% I think.

We also need certain industries to just stop existing who are consuming large amounts of energy for little discernible benefit.

I'm going to disagree with this math. In particular, with conventional CO2 accounting we book the CO2 for me buying a new TV from South Korea to South Korea, the parts from their respective originating countries, and I believe the countries that the ships are flagged under for the shipping CO2. I think that math is fundamentally wrong. When you book that sort of consumption to the country where the product is actually used the USA comes out #2 in per capita CO2 production/consumption (check out Figure 5):
https://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687

I don't think that's because all of our industries are the least efficient in the world. It's because we buy too much stuff from overseas.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2021, 12:00:33 PM by PDXTabs »

Tyler durden

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #505 on: August 12, 2021, 12:00:54 PM »
I'm a bit confused as to whether the criticism is about canceling the Keystone XL expansion, or encouraging other Putin and OPEC to pump more oil.

To clarify

I am criticizing for cancelling the Keystone pipeline and killing off thousand of American jobs, because of climate change!!!! then months later asking OPEC to pump out millions more barrels of crude oil because... reasons.

GuitarStv

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #506 on: August 12, 2021, 12:26:21 PM »
Biden called for more oil production 2 days after the UN gives the world a Code Red on climate change.

If there is anyone who still has hope of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees I am at a loss to know how they retain that hope or see any way forward for it to actually happen.

As long as we keep pretending that current rates of energy consumption can ever be supported, certainly not.  The hard truth is that we consume too much.  Renewable sources cannot provide enough energy to meet demand so we need to reduce consumption in a radical way.  Doing this will tank our current economic system and make life less comfortable for everyone.  The only real shot we have at reducing consumption in great enough numbers is to have the entire world pull together to agree upon reasonable business and personal energy consumption caps.  Since this will be massively unpopular, it will not succeed in any democracy - and since it is likely to cause uprisings and unrest in non-democratic countries it won't be implemented there either.

So, the longer we wait the worse the austerity required.  The worse the austerity required, the less likely it is to happen and the longer we'll wait.  We're caught in a positive feedback loop.  There is no realistic scenario of hope for the future from an environmental perspective.  Limiting to only 1.5 degrees warming is a pipe dream, we're going to go way above that.

In other words, the world is going down the shitter, and nothing is going to stop it.

Basically.

Remember when you were a kid, and though the adults in control knew shit and had things handled? Turns out we were wrong on both counts.

It has been a while that I've been looking in vain for some sort of evidence that we're not trapped in the positive feedback loop described.  Our forests are burning, our crops are frying in the sun, our oceans are warming, weather is becoming more and more unpredictable . . . every year the warnings get more and more dire.  But economically and politically real change is becoming less rather than more palatable.

And individually?  For each individual person who decides to cut their energy consumption by say . . . eating less meat, there are two others who are investing in totally pointless gigantic wastes of energy like bitcoin - ensuring that the reduction is totally without impact.  The average human brain doesn't seem to be capable of rational long term species-level decision making.

nereo

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #507 on: August 12, 2021, 12:26:38 PM »
I'm a bit confused as to whether the criticism is about canceling the Keystone XL expansion, or encouraging other Putin and OPEC to pump more oil.

To clarify

I am criticizing for cancelling the Keystone pipeline and killing off thousand of American jobs, because of climate change!!!! then months later asking OPEC to pump out millions more barrels of crude oil because... reasons.

If you mean thousands of American jobs in litigation and lobbying - ok, I can see your point. But the rest of the pipeline seemed fated to a quagmire of litigation on both sides of the border. It's as controversial in Canada as it in within the US, and saw four different administrations before TransCanada pulled the plug earlier this year. It actually made the most progress during Obama's first term, became a political football during his second, and got completely stuck during Trump's administration.
I'm not sure why you expected Biden to push it through.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #508 on: August 12, 2021, 12:33:48 PM »
I don't think we need personal caps. Energy consumption is only 1/3 residential. And most places where people could reduce their consumption are highly limited. We need incentives and grants to improve older homes like adding higher levels of insulation to every building in the South so that they run the AC less, but the bigger savings are in larger government projects like expanding rail and adding more high-speed rail. Projects like that have the ability to reduce US consumption by >5% I think.

We also need certain industries to just stop existing who are consuming large amounts of energy for little discernible benefit.

I'm going to disagree with this math. In particular, with conventional CO2 accounting we book the CO2 for me buying a new TV from South Korea to South Korea, the parts from their respective originating countries, and I believe the countries that the ships are flagged under for the shipping CO2. I think that math is fundamentally wrong. When you book that sort of consumption to the country where the product is actually used the USA comes out #2 in per capita CO2 production/consumption (check out Figure 5):
https://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687

I don't think that's because all of our industries are the least efficient in the world. It's because we buy too much stuff from overseas.

That's a good point. Though CO2 accounting and energy consumption aren't necessarily a 1-to-1 comparison especially across different countries.

I'm hopeful that we'll have some carbon tariffs soon that will cut down on the number of cargo ships that run across the Pacific.

Tyler durden

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #509 on: August 12, 2021, 12:40:41 PM »
I'm a bit confused as to whether the criticism is about canceling the Keystone XL expansion, or encouraging other Putin and OPEC to pump more oil.

To clarify

I am criticizing for cancelling the Keystone pipeline and killing off thousand of American jobs, because of climate change!!!! then months later asking OPEC to pump out millions more barrels of crude oil because... reasons.

If you mean thousands of American jobs in litigation and lobbying - ok, I can see your point. But the rest of the pipeline seemed fated to a quagmire of litigation on both sides of the border. It's as controversial in Canada as it in within the US, and saw four different administrations before TransCanada pulled the plug earlier this year. It actually made the most progress during Obama's first term, became a political football during his second, and got completely stuck during Trump's administration.
I'm not sure why you expected Biden to push it through.

Your argument isn't sound here. He could have done nothing, approved it or just stood aside and let it play out. But he cancelled it because climate change. And now has the gall to ask OPEC to pump more oil. put aside the fact we should be relying more on allies for oil as opposed to adversaries, its a complete about face on his stance.

The project had the support of the canadian province and the PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55709261

The project also has Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's support.

He cancelled it to show he was tough on fighting climate change. OK fine. He can have that position. But he cant be tough on climate change and ask OPEC to ramp up oil production. That is stupid no matter how you slice it.

GuitarStv

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #510 on: August 12, 2021, 12:47:07 PM »
I don't think we need personal caps. Energy consumption is only 1/3 residential. And most places where people could reduce their consumption are highly limited. We need incentives and grants to improve older homes like adding higher levels of insulation to every building in the South so that they run the AC less, but the bigger savings are in larger government projects like expanding rail and adding more high-speed rail. Projects like that have the ability to reduce US consumption by >5% I think.

We also need certain industries to just stop existing who are consuming large amounts of energy for little discernible benefit.

I'm going to disagree with this math. In particular, with conventional CO2 accounting we book the CO2 for me buying a new TV from South Korea to South Korea, the parts from their respective originating countries, and I believe the countries that the ships are flagged under for the shipping CO2. I think that math is fundamentally wrong. When you book that sort of consumption to the country where the product is actually used the USA comes out #2 in per capita CO2 production/consumption (check out Figure 5):
https://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687

I don't think that's because all of our industries are the least efficient in the world. It's because we buy too much stuff from overseas.

That's a good point. Though CO2 accounting and energy consumption aren't necessarily a 1-to-1 comparison especially across different countries.

I'm hopeful that we'll have some carbon tariffs soon that will cut down on the number of cargo ships that run across the Pacific.

Deck chairs on the titanic.

The idea of carbon taxes and tariffs have been tossed around (and occasionally implemented) for more than 20 years.  There has been an increase of energy use and consumption over that period by every measurement I'm aware of.  For these tariffs to actually work, they would need to hurt consumers enough to change their behaviour.  Point to a politician who will back that deal, and I'll point to a liar.

The fundamental problem is that most people don't want to change how we live.  We're just looking for some magical fantasy 'maybe this is it' thing to point to that will make ourselves feel better as we floor it towards certain doom.  Wind and solar can't scale to demand and aren't consistent enough to support current usage, 'Green' biomass energy is by many accounts more damaging than burning gas and oil, nuclear is not a long term solution (but comes with long term problems), tariffs and taxes structurally cannot work to solve the issue. . . Why do you think the rich are suddenly so interested in escaping our doomed rock?  They've seen the writing on the wall.

I have some negative thoughts on the matter too, but would prefer to keep things light.

nereo

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #511 on: August 12, 2021, 12:50:16 PM »
I'm not sure how you are reading this as an about face - he campaigned on canceling it. It would have been surprising if he didn't (though technically TransCanada pulled the plug first).

more broadly speaking though - the Keystone XL wasn't likely to get built regardless.  Trump couldn't get it built despite making it a core issue and having both the House and the Senate.  Ultimately this was just closure to something that was functionally dead years ago.

Saying it's the "same" as OPEC oil is a false equivalence, as they clearly have a much different carbon footprint.

PDXTabs

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #512 on: August 12, 2021, 12:59:06 PM »
The idea of carbon taxes and tariffs have been tossed around (and occasionally implemented) for more than 20 years.  There has been an increase of energy use and consumption over that period by every measurement I'm aware of.  For these tariffs to actually work, they would need to hurt consumers enough to change their behaviour.  Point to a politician who will back that deal, and I'll point to a liar.

I think that there are some politicians in the EU that are willing to do it and aren't liars. They call it CBAM. But to your point they are having a hard time getting to consensus on it, and the EU can't save the planet.

GuitarStv

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #513 on: August 12, 2021, 01:05:51 PM »
The idea of carbon taxes and tariffs have been tossed around (and occasionally implemented) for more than 20 years.  There has been an increase of energy use and consumption over that period by every measurement I'm aware of.  For these tariffs to actually work, they would need to hurt consumers enough to change their behaviour.  Point to a politician who will back that deal, and I'll point to a liar or someone doomed to lose popular votes.

I think that there are some politicians in the EU that are willing to do it and aren't liars. They call it CBAM. But to your point they are having a hard time getting to consensus on it, and the EU can't save the planet.

Fair point.  I've amended my statement.  :P

ncornilsen

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #514 on: August 12, 2021, 01:14:14 PM »
Quote
nuclear is not a long term solution (but comes with long term problems)

How is nuclear not a long term solution? Especially with the small-scale reactors that're becoming available?

Davnasty

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #515 on: August 12, 2021, 01:22:48 PM »
I'm a bit confused as to whether the criticism is about canceling the Keystone XL expansion, or encouraging other Putin and OPEC to pump more oil.

To clarify

I am criticizing for cancelling the Keystone pipeline and killing off thousand of American jobs, because of climate change!!!! then months later asking OPEC to pump out millions more barrels of crude oil because... reasons.

If you mean thousands of American jobs in litigation and lobbying - ok, I can see your point. But the rest of the pipeline seemed fated to a quagmire of litigation on both sides of the border. It's as controversial in Canada as it in within the US, and saw four different administrations before TransCanada pulled the plug earlier this year. It actually made the most progress during Obama's first term, became a political football during his second, and got completely stuck during Trump's administration.
I'm not sure why you expected Biden to push it through.

Your argument isn't sound here. He could have done nothing, approved it or just stood aside and let it play out. But he cancelled it because climate change. And now has the gall to ask OPEC to pump more oil. put aside the fact we should be relying more on allies for oil as opposed to adversaries, its a complete about face on his stance.

The project had the support of the canadian province and the PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55709261

The project also has Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's support.

He cancelled it to show he was tough on fighting climate change. OK fine. He can have that position. But he cant be tough on climate change and ask OPEC to ramp up oil production. That is stupid no matter how you slice it.

You keep saying Biden canceled the pipeline because of climate change, but the reality of the situation is much more nuanced than that.

First, there were concerns specific to this pipeline that were unrelated to climate change:

Quote
Its proposed route in Nebraska cut through the Ogallala Aquifer, the groundwater source for millions of Plains states residents. The pipeline's opponents in Nebraska feared that any leak from Keystone XL would damage the critical aquifer...

With regard to climate change:

Quote
...fossil fuel called bitumen that's mixed in with clay, sand, rock and together, can be hard as a hockey puck. To access the bitumen, Alberta's boreal forests are cut away in enormous strip mines...Extracting the bitumen and diluting for shipment requires energy, most of it from burning fossil fuels. That makes oil sands crude more carbon-intensive — and worse for the climate — than conventional petroleum.

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/09/1004908006/developer-abandons-keystone-xl-pipeline-project-ending-decade-long-battle

Of course this is just scratching the surface, but my point is that pretending this is about domestic vs foreign oil, all else is equal, is wildly inaccurate.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2021, 01:24:37 PM by Davnasty »

Tyler durden

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #516 on: August 12, 2021, 02:27:23 PM »
Are you working under the assumption that oil is going to stay in the ground? I would re asses what you think you know about oil extraction in the Alberta oil sands.

bitumen

you see we have a record of these things. See below.

The Obama State Department found five separate times that the pipeline would have no material impact on greenhouse gas emissions since crude would still be extracted. Shipping bitumen by rail or tanker would result in 28% to 42% higher CO2 emissions and more leaks. No matter. President Obama in 2015 rejected the permit as an oblation to the Paris Climate accords.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-keystone-pipeline-kill-11611184519

Biden is doubling down on stupid. He is climate crusader!! in the press but his actual policy on this is not helping, in terms of CO2 emissions.

Take the L on this one. Its not defensible.


GuitarStv

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #517 on: August 12, 2021, 02:51:48 PM »
Quote
nuclear is not a long term solution (but comes with long term problems)

How is nuclear not a long term solution? Especially with the small-scale reactors that're becoming available?

Scaling up carries with it a few problems.  First of all, it's difficult to throttle nuclear generation to meet demand . . . usually reactors are kept running at a set rate above demand, and the excess energy is lost.  This is mitigated by use of gas/oil generation that can be throttled more easily/quickly to bridge the gap.  If we move to all nuclear, the efficiency of plants will likely drop.

We're currently consuming somewhere around 15 terawatts. To supply 15 TW with nuclear power only, we would need about 15,000 nuclear reactors (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0096340212459124).  This carries with it problems . . . simply finding 15,000 places on Earth close to a large enough body of water for cooling coupled with distance from populated areas is going to be pretty challenging.  Then you have the issue of greater numbers leading to greater accidents.  Nobody's perfect, and accidents can be caused by things out of human control.  Massively scaling up the number of reactors is likely to increase occurrence of nuclear accidents.

Related to the previous point . . . few people want a nuclear plant in their backyard.  There's tremendous resistance to placement of nuclear reactors from local populations that will have to be overcome.  This might explain why only two plants have been built in the entire US in the past 30 odd year.

At current consumption rates, everything that I've read indicates that we've got a little over 200 years of viable uranium left.  We're using nuclear energy for about 10% of the world's electricity right now (https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx).  If we scale up to 100% of current needs (which will be insufficient for future demand based upon the last 100 years of energy data we've got), then we're putting off the inevitable for only a bit over 20 years.  It's possible that use of thorium could mitigate this issue but it has it's own unknowns and issues (unknown feasibility of reprocessing, plenty of open questions and uncompleted research regarding it's use, higher fuel fabrication costs than uranium, more dangerous than uranium radioactivity in the short term, etc.)  Thorium should be much better for long term nuclear waste at least.

Then we have the costs associated with actually building all the reactors.  It's not easy to build a nuclear reactor, and it's very expensive.  A huge number of rare materials are required from all over the planet.  Due to the costs associated, it's very likely that many will push to keep on happily burning our coal, oil, and gas while the costs of actually building nuclear reactors only goes up.  I see it as likely that by the time people agree they're necessary enough to build it will be increasingly difficult to build them.

But the single most important reason that nuclear won't work is because it's not addressing the problem.  The problem is excessive and increasing energy consumption by people.  If we build it, they will build super bitcoin 2.0 to drain that power just as quickly as it comes in.  Nuclear is also one of those options where people hazily point to it and say "See?  things aren't so bad!  Problem solved."  and then go back to what they were doing before.  The hurdles involved will never be surmounted as long as there's another thing on the distant future that can be pointed to . . . hydrogen vehicles, moar solar/wind, biofuels!  It's easier to dream than to build, and we are not a species that likes hard.

ncornilsen

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #518 on: August 12, 2021, 03:09:50 PM »
Quote
nuclear is not a long term solution (but comes with long term problems)

How is nuclear not a long term solution? Especially with the small-scale reactors that're becoming available?

Scaling up carries with it a few problems.  First of all, it's difficult to throttle nuclear generation to meet demand . . . usually reactors are kept running at a set rate above demand, and the excess energy is lost.  This is mitigated by use of gas/oil generation that can be throttled more easily/quickly to bridge the gap.  If we move to all nuclear, the efficiency of plants will likely drop.

We're currently consuming somewhere around 15 terawatts. To supply 15 TW with nuclear power only, we would need about 15,000 nuclear reactors (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0096340212459124).  This carries with it problems . . . simply finding 15,000 places on Earth close to a large enough body of water for cooling coupled with distance from populated areas is going to be pretty challenging.  Then you have the issue of greater numbers leading to greater accidents.  Nobody's perfect, and accidents can be caused by things out of human control.  Massively scaling up the number of reactors is likely to increase occurrence of nuclear accidents.

Related to the previous point . . . few people want a nuclear plant in their backyard.  There's tremendous resistance to placement of nuclear reactors from local populations that will have to be overcome.  This might explain why only two plants have been built in the entire US in the past 30 odd year.

At current consumption rates, everything that I've read indicates that we've got a little over 200 years of viable uranium left.  We're using nuclear energy for about 10% of the world's electricity right now (https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx).  If we scale up to 100% of current needs (which will be insufficient for future demand based upon the last 100 years of energy data we've got), then we're putting off the inevitable for only a bit over 20 years.  It's possible that use of thorium could mitigate this issue but it has it's own unknowns and issues (unknown feasibility of reprocessing, plenty of open questions and uncompleted research regarding it's use, higher fuel fabrication costs than uranium, more dangerous than uranium radioactivity in the short term, etc.)  Thorium should be much better for long term nuclear waste at least.

Then we have the costs associated with actually building all the reactors.  It's not easy to build a nuclear reactor, and it's very expensive.  A huge number of rare materials are required from all over the planet.  Due to the costs associated, it's very likely that many will push to keep on happily burning our coal, oil, and gas while the costs of actually building nuclear reactors only goes up.  I see it as likely that by the time people agree they're necessary enough to build it will be increasingly difficult to build them.

But the single most important reason that nuclear won't work is because it's not addressing the problem.  The problem is excessive and increasing energy consumption by people.  If we build it, they will build super bitcoin 2.0 to drain that power just as quickly as it comes in.  Nuclear is also one of those options where people hazily point to it and say "See?  things aren't so bad!  Problem solved."  and then go back to what they were doing before.  The hurdles involved will never be surmounted as long as there's another thing on the distant future that can be pointed to . . . hydrogen vehicles, moar solar/wind, biofuels!  It's easier to dream than to build, and we are not a species that likes hard.

Seawater uranium extraction could supply use for 60,000 years when traditional sources become uneconomical.
Reprocessing existing spent rods double supply (I think it was doubles)
The small reactors such as Nuscale's help solve the reactor cost & the issue with scaling to demand.
Smart grids can price the bitcoin energy wasters out of the market. Sounds like it wouldn't take much of a surcharge to make that uneconomical.

These seem like solvable problems.

I don't think it is inherently a problem to consume energy, so long as its produced without directly burning fossil fuels.



JGS1980

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #519 on: August 12, 2021, 03:10:47 PM »
I'm a bit confused as to whether the criticism is about canceling the Keystone XL expansion, or encouraging other Putin and OPEC to pump more oil.

To clarify

I am criticizing for cancelling the Keystone pipeline and killing off thousand of American jobs, because of climate change!!!! then months later asking OPEC to pump out millions more barrels of crude oil because... reasons.

Isn't the Keystone pipeline a way of helping CANADA export oil, not the US? Wouldn't the US just be refining it?

Why can't Canada build it's own pipeline from Alberta to their own refineries? Too expensive? Then maybe it's not cost effective, and they should not dig up the tar sands at all.

https://www.citizen.org/article/tar-sands-dirtiest-fuel-in-the-world/

JGS

P.S. I bet Biden requested OPEC increase it's production just so OPEC would refuse to do so (out of spite!). End result would be increased cost of gasoline, leading to decreased demand for oil based consumption and increase in demand for alternative energies [with zero political fallout for Biden].

FIPurpose

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #520 on: August 12, 2021, 03:22:08 PM »
Are you working under the assumption that oil is going to stay in the ground? I would re asses what you think you know about oil extraction in the Alberta oil sands.

bitumen

you see we have a record of these things. See below.

The Obama State Department found five separate times that the pipeline would have no material impact on greenhouse gas emissions since crude would still be extracted. Shipping bitumen by rail or tanker would result in 28% to 42% higher CO2 emissions and more leaks. No matter. President Obama in 2015 rejected the permit as an oblation to the Paris Climate accords.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-keystone-pipeline-kill-11611184519

Biden is doubling down on stupid. He is climate crusader!! in the press but his actual policy on this is not helping, in terms of CO2 emissions.

Take the L on this one. Its not defensible.

I'm not sure you're right on this one. The largest companies are abandoning the oil sands. Oil sand extraction already is something like 3-6x less efficient than other methods of extracting oil. It's by far already one of the dirtiest methods of getting oil. And it costs them something like $45 a barrel. Transport tacks on about another $20 per barrel.

The current price of oil is right around $68 meaning that the oil sands are currently not profitable. But back when the project started, oil was closer to $100-120. The oil sands haven't been profitable since about 2014. What instead happened as that fracking caused US oil production to skyrocket and obviated the need for the XL Pipeline.

The only thing keeping the oil sands going is the Alberta government continuing to subsidize it and waste its dwindling resources on. Trudeau can give lip service to it, but that's another problem for Alberta. Alberta has exactly 0 Liberal MP's. They will not be getting anything from the federal government and especially not continued subsidization that the provincial government has been willing to waste on it.

I visited Calgary 2 years ago. It's one of the saddest, emptiest cities I ever seen which is too bad because it's in a fantastic location. (And rat free!) It was far emptier than Winnipeg, and that's pretty sad to say the least.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #521 on: August 12, 2021, 03:34:26 PM »
I'm a bit confused as to whether the criticism is about canceling the Keystone XL expansion, or encouraging other Putin and OPEC to pump more oil.

To clarify

I am criticizing for cancelling the Keystone pipeline and killing off thousand of American jobs, because of climate change!!!! then months later asking OPEC to pump out millions more barrels of crude oil because... reasons.

P.S. I bet Biden requested OPEC increase it's production just so OPEC would refuse to do so (out of spite!). End result would be increased cost of gasoline, leading to decreased demand for oil based consumption and increase in demand for alternative energies [with zero political fallout for Biden].

Biden can't find the door to the whitehouse, there is no way he's playing regular chess, let alone any sort of nth dimensional chess!

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #522 on: August 12, 2021, 04:07:55 PM »
Are you working under the assumption that oil is going to stay in the ground? I would re asses what you think you know about oil extraction in the Alberta oil sands.

bitumen

you see we have a record of these things. See below.

The Obama State Department found five separate times that the pipeline would have no material impact on greenhouse gas emissions since crude would still be extracted. Shipping bitumen by rail or tanker would result in 28% to 42% higher CO2 emissions and more leaks. No matter. President Obama in 2015 rejected the permit as an oblation to the Paris Climate accords.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-keystone-pipeline-kill-11611184519

Biden is doubling down on stupid. He is climate crusader!! in the press but his actual policy on this is not helping, in terms of CO2 emissions.

Take the L on this one. Its not defensible.

Again, drastically oversimplifying a complex question. Since the author of that opinion piece didn't provide citations for their claim of the State department findings I'll help them out:

Quote
Section  1.4  notes that  approval  or  denial  of  any  one  crude  oil  transport  project,  including  the  proposed  Project,  is  unlikely  to  significantly  impact  the  rate  of  extraction  in  the  oil  sands  or  the  continued  demand  for  heavy  crude  oil  at  refineries  in  the  United  States  based  on  expected  oil  prices, oil-sands supply costs, transport costs, and supply-demand scenarios.

https://2012-keystonepipeline-xl.state.gov/documents/organization/221135.pdf


On the other hand:

Quote
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency criticized the  State  Department  conclusion  that  "oil  sands  crude  will  find  a  way  to  market  with  or without  [Keystone  XL]”,  asserting  that it  was  “not based  on  an updated  energy-economic modeling effort” (Giles 2013, p.3). The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2013  notes  that  approval  of  Keystone  XL  and  other  pipelines  would  be  needed  to  increase Canadian  oil  sands  production,  implying  that  not  all  of  the  oil  would  otherwise  make  it  to market (IEA 2013b, p.491). And several critics of the Keystone XL proposal have suggested that  other  transportation  options  face  serious  obstacles  or  would  not  be  able  to  carry  heavy crude. They argue that alternative pipeline routes to western Canada are limited by insufficient investor interest and broad public opposition, that alternative pipelines in the U.S. to the Gulf Coast are limited by technical capacity and economic constraints, and that large-scale  transportation  of  oil  by  rail  is  less  likely  due  to  lower  efficiencies  and  safety  concerns (NRDC  2013;  Sierra  Club  et  al.  2013;  Kretzmann  et  al.  2013;  Droitsch  2011).  Given  these obstacles,  one  might  argue  that  all  of  the  GHG  emissions  associated  with  production  and consumption of the Canadian oil could be attributed to Keystone XL – 181 million tCO2e per year, according to Kretzman et al. (2013).

https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-price-effects.pdf

And as FIPurpose noted, this was back in 2013-14 when oil sands extraction was much more profitable.

Are you working under the assumption that oil is going to stay in the ground?

Regarding your initial question, I try not to make assumptions and I don't believe I made any specific claims either. This stuff is far too complex for me to understand from reading a few articles. I was simply pointing out where you've made some pretty significant assumptions of your own.

Tyler durden

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #523 on: August 12, 2021, 04:14:12 PM »
Are you working under the assumption that oil is going to stay in the ground? I would re asses what you think you know about oil extraction in the Alberta oil sands.

bitumen

you see we have a record of these things. See below.

The Obama State Department found five separate times that the pipeline would have no material impact on greenhouse gas emissions since crude would still be extracted. Shipping bitumen by rail or tanker would result in 28% to 42% higher CO2 emissions and more leaks. No matter. President Obama in 2015 rejected the permit as an oblation to the Paris Climate accords.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-keystone-pipeline-kill-11611184519

Biden is doubling down on stupid. He is climate crusader!! in the press but his actual policy on this is not helping, in terms of CO2 emissions.

Take the L on this one. Its not defensible.

I'm not sure you're right on this one. The largest companies are abandoning the oil sands. Oil sand extraction already is something like 3-6x less efficient than other methods of extracting oil. It's by far already one of the dirtiest methods of getting oil. And it costs them something like $45 a barrel. Transport tacks on about another $20 per barrel.

The current price of oil is right around $68 meaning that the oil sands are currently not profitable. But back when the project started, oil was closer to $100-120. The oil sands haven't been profitable since about 2014. What instead happened as that fracking caused US oil production to skyrocket and obviated the need for the XL Pipeline.

The only thing keeping the oil sands going is the Alberta government continuing to subsidize it and waste its dwindling resources on. Trudeau can give lip service to it, but that's another problem for Alberta. Alberta has exactly 0 Liberal MP's. They will not be getting anything from the federal government and especially not continued subsidization that the provincial government has been willing to waste on it.

I visited Calgary 2 years ago. It's one of the saddest, emptiest cities I ever seen which is too bad because it's in a fantastic location. (And rat free!) It was far emptier than Winnipeg, and that's pretty sad to say the least.

Fact - The oil is coming out of the ground.

Fact - Biden is making it more difficult to move the oil via pipeline, hence further damaging the climate through more oil spills and more CO2 emissions moving the oil via rail.

Hey i agree in spirit. We should be finding ways to move away from this stuff. But for the next couple decades we are going to need oil. In the meantime, why are we making oil extraction more damaging to the economy.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-oil-oilsands-production-1.6137423

Oil production in Alberta in the first half of this year has surged higher than it was in 2019 before the disruption of the pandemic and the collapse of energy prices, analysts say.

Production averaged 3.53 million barrels per day between January and June — 5.7 per cent higher than during the same period in 2020 and 1.8 per cent above the same period in 2019, said a release from ATB Economics on Wednesday.

The vast majority of that production — 86 per cent — is accounted for by oilsands extraction.

Davnasty

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #524 on: August 12, 2021, 04:51:38 PM »
Again, if anyone is interested in a more nuanced look at the situation:

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/03/canadas-oil-sands-industry-is-taking-a-big-hit/

GuitarStv

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #525 on: August 12, 2021, 05:06:16 PM »
Seawater uranium extraction could supply use for 60,000 years when traditional sources become uneconomical.
Reprocessing existing spent rods double supply (I think it was doubles)
The small reactors such as Nuscale's help solve the reactor cost & the issue with scaling to demand.
Smart grids can price the bitcoin energy wasters out of the market. Sounds like it wouldn't take much of a surcharge to make that uneconomical.

These seem like solvable problems.

I don't think it is inherently a problem to consume energy, so long as its produced without directly burning fossil fuels.

Solar seemed like a workable solution, as did wind power.  So did biofuels.  Everything seems solvable as long as you don't have to work out the nitty gritty details, pay attention to the problems, or change any part of your lifestyle.  Like the seawater thing.  While theoretically possible, extracting uranium from seawater has never been done in a cost effective way.

I have a problem with praying for a magical technological solution to come save the day.  We've been doing that since the 90s and it doesn't seem to be working.  But if we're going magical, I'd prefer to build Dyson spheres.  :P

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #526 on: August 12, 2021, 05:36:52 PM »
[
Fact - Biden is making it more difficult to move the oil via pipeline, hence further damaging the climate through more oil spills and more CO2 emissions moving the oil via rail.


You seem to be under this strange notion that Biden somehow stopped the Keystone XL (i.e. Phase IV) from being built.  It didn’t get permitted under Trump. It didn’t get permitted under Obama.  The whole process started under W. The entire project could be a case study for “how NOT to go about building an international an international pipeline.”
About the only difference I can see here between Trump and Biden is that Trump promised to get the pipeline built, and failed, whereas Biden promised to stop it, and succeeded insofar as he’s taking credit for stopping an already broken down project. It’s the equivalent of jumping in front of a broken-down truck hours after the wheels fell off and saying “I wouldn’t let it pass through!”  - technically true, but rather meaningless.

If you want to fault Biden for taking credit for something he really had very little to do, I agree. But assigning blame is attributing far more to credit than is deserved.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #527 on: August 12, 2021, 06:00:09 PM »
The Keystone pipeline is neither here nor there. What is crucial is Biden wants lower petroleum prices when what is required are carbon taxes to raise its price. Rather than choosing winners like solar or nuclear, raising the price level of carbon-based energy sources and encourage market-based solutions to the problem of energy supply. And my counter-intuitive position has long been that--if anything--the market is too good at solving problems.

But since true leadership does not exist in the US political system, I'm not surprised by these developments.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #528 on: August 12, 2021, 06:22:10 PM »
Are you working under the assumption that oil is going to stay in the ground? I would re asses what you think you know about oil extraction in the Alberta oil sands.

bitumen

you see we have a record of these things. See below.

The Obama State Department found five separate times that the pipeline would have no material impact on greenhouse gas emissions since crude would still be extracted. Shipping bitumen by rail or tanker would result in 28% to 42% higher CO2 emissions and more leaks. No matter. President Obama in 2015 rejected the permit as an oblation to the Paris Climate accords.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-keystone-pipeline-kill-11611184519

Biden is doubling down on stupid. He is climate crusader!! in the press but his actual policy on this is not helping, in terms of CO2 emissions.

Take the L on this one. Its not defensible.

I'm not sure you're right on this one. The largest companies are abandoning the oil sands. Oil sand extraction already is something like 3-6x less efficient than other methods of extracting oil. It's by far already one of the dirtiest methods of getting oil. And it costs them something like $45 a barrel. Transport tacks on about another $20 per barrel.

The current price of oil is right around $68 meaning that the oil sands are currently not profitable. But back when the project started, oil was closer to $100-120. The oil sands haven't been profitable since about 2014. What instead happened as that fracking caused US oil production to skyrocket and obviated the need for the XL Pipeline.

The only thing keeping the oil sands going is the Alberta government continuing to subsidize it and waste its dwindling resources on. Trudeau can give lip service to it, but that's another problem for Alberta. Alberta has exactly 0 Liberal MP's. They will not be getting anything from the federal government and especially not continued subsidization that the provincial government has been willing to waste on it.

I visited Calgary 2 years ago. It's one of the saddest, emptiest cities I ever seen which is too bad because it's in a fantastic location. (And rat free!) It was far emptier than Winnipeg, and that's pretty sad to say the least.

Fact - The oil is coming out of the ground.

Fact - Biden is making it more difficult to move the oil via pipeline, hence further damaging the climate through more oil spills and more CO2 emissions moving the oil via rail.

Hey i agree in spirit. We should be finding ways to move away from this stuff. But for the next couple decades we are going to need oil. In the meantime, why are we making oil extraction more damaging to the economy.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-oil-oilsands-production-1.6137423

Oil production in Alberta in the first half of this year has surged higher than it was in 2019 before the disruption of the pandemic and the collapse of energy prices, analysts say.

Production averaged 3.53 million barrels per day between January and June — 5.7 per cent higher than during the same period in 2020 and 1.8 per cent above the same period in 2019, said a release from ATB Economics on Wednesday.

The vast majority of that production — 86 per cent — is accounted for by oilsands extraction.


Sure, oil is coming out now. But the pipelines are usually setup and budgeted to operate for decades. If the oil market has already hit its peak and prices don't recover in the next 5 years, then the oil sands are done for.

And Biden pushing for OPEC to lower prices, why that's even more of a push against the Oil Sands. If OPEC keeps oil prices closer to $50, then the oil sands won't be profitable for the foreseeable future and will collapse within the next 5 years.

The problem for Alberta is that once oil demand starts to go down over the next decade, they will be the first ones on the chopping block.

My personal gut feeling is that the oil sands will be effectively done by 2035 no matter what, making the XL pipeline a bad investment.

You can say they pump the oil anyways, but that still doesn't make the pipeline economically viable, nor is it somehow contradictory to asking OPEC to increase supply. Both further drive the point that the oil sands are done for. They should've closed up shop years ago, but the politics in Alberta continue to hand Billions of dollars to the oil industry for free to prop up a dead product.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #529 on: August 13, 2021, 12:40:56 AM »
And my counter-intuitive position has long been that--if anything--the market is too good at solving problems.

I'm curious what you mean by too good?

I do tend to agree that in the medium/long term markets are very good at their job if you remove all the externalities or price them appropriately. And I'm a tree huger that wants to save the planet while feeding and housing everyone.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #530 on: August 13, 2021, 05:27:26 AM »
I do tend to agree that in the medium/long term markets are very good at their job if you remove all the externalities or price them appropriately.

Given that it's near impossible to remove/price externalities . . . is your argument really that medium/long term markets are terrible at their job?

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #531 on: August 13, 2021, 08:11:57 AM »
Quote
nuclear is not a long term solution (but comes with long term problems)

How is nuclear not a long term solution? Especially with the small-scale reactors that're becoming available?

Quote
Seawater uranium extraction could supply use for 60,000 years when traditional sources become uneconomical.
I don't know about seawater, I am sceptical that is really works for a start, but more importantly uranium powered energy production is already more expensive than regenerative energies. And that does not include the million years of storage and the general health risk.


I approve of Dyson constructs though.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #532 on: August 13, 2021, 09:33:37 AM »


Sure, oil is coming out now. But the pipelines are usually setup and budgeted to operate for decades.


This comment also brings up the very important element of time.

1. OPEC can turn on the spigots now and we can have the oil in however long it takes to refine and transport it, which I would guess is less than 90 days. I don’t know where Keystone is at, but if we greenlit everything today, how long would it take for product that comes through it to get to market? If it’s more than, say, 180 days, chances are we would have asked OPEC to increase production anyway to bridge us to the pipeline coming online.

2.  As @FIPurpose notes, oil pipelines are set up to run for decades.  Once that oil pipeline starts running, it’ll probably take the bad press associated with a disastrous leak to stop it.  As long as it’s in operation, it serves as a competitor and disincentive to switch over to greener power options.

Due to a number of constraints, we can’t just switch over to windmills, solar, etc. in an instant. And Biden can ask OPEC to slow down as more green power comes online. I think this should only be scandalous if he simultaneously slowed or halted the building and operations of green power projects, and I haven’t heard any indication of that.

nereo

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #533 on: August 13, 2021, 10:07:59 AM »

Due to a number of constraints, we can’t just switch over to windmills, solar, etc. in an instant. And Biden can ask OPEC to slow down as more green power comes online. I think this should only be scandalous if he simultaneously slowed or halted the building and operations of green power projects, and I haven’t heard any indication of that.

It does make me wonder if this isn't a very practical and shrewd move. Accelerate our switch to renewables while keeping oil-dependent adversaries dependent on oil. Each year the US is less dependent on imported oil, and that could accelerate in a major way as EVs gain market share (which are largely powered by a mixture of domestically-sourced natural gas, renewables and some nuclear).

PDXTabs

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #534 on: August 13, 2021, 10:49:12 AM »
I do tend to agree that in the medium/long term markets are very good at their job if you remove all the externalities or price them appropriately.

Given that it's near impossible to remove/price externalities . . . is your argument really that medium/long term markets are terrible at their job?

Have we tried? When was the last time your neighbor dumped his trash in your yard to save a few dollars? When was the last time you dumped your trash in the forest to save a few dollars? It happens sometimes, but not very often. We, as a society, decided to make it hard to externalize your costs that way. It still happens a little bit, but not very much.

GuitarStv

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #535 on: August 13, 2021, 12:42:11 PM »
I do tend to agree that in the medium/long term markets are very good at their job if you remove all the externalities or price them appropriately.

Given that it's near impossible to remove/price externalities . . . is your argument really that medium/long term markets are terrible at their job?

Have we tried? When was the last time your neighbor dumped his trash in your yard to save a few dollars? When was the last time you dumped your trash in the forest to save a few dollars? It happens sometimes, but not very often.  We, as a society, decided to make it hard to externalize your costs that way. It still happens a little bit, but not very much.

Not sure I can agree with your argument there.

I live at the edge of Toronto near a ravine.  There's a posted sign indicating that there's a 5000$ fine for dumping garbage.  At least once a week late at night someone will back up a pickup truck or moving van and dump garbage in the ravine.  Construction waste, household garbage, packing peanuts, ugh.  (We charge 16$ for 100kg of garbage at the Toronto dump.)  After moving in to this house I was picking there pretty regularly to try to clean it up before finally giving up.  I tried contacting the police, and they said that they would send someone out but nothing seems to have come from it (or maybe they caught some people, but others continued).  My point being - there actually are a lot of people who dump trash in the forest to save a buck.  This same sort of thing is true of most places.  Take a walk near any well travelled road and look at the ground.  I bet you won't get far before you start seeing cigarette butts, straws, bits of plastic bags, etc.

But the simplest way to think about is this - If externalization solved environmental damage, then there wouldn't be a corporate and industry pollution problem . . . the costs of the pollution in environmental damage and cost of lives would already be accounted for.  But right now 71% of all carbon emissions on Earth are caused by 100 companies - do you think they're paying for the future and current costs of the environmental damage that they're doing?  One issue is that it's impossibly difficult to account for every potential cost because of the unknowns - so generally we don't try.

The free market is a great optimizing process for money.  But it's impossible to cost many things - what's the price of the extinction of a species, or of the giant floating garbage patch in the pacific?  What's the cost of a life?  Vehicle exhaust is directly responsible for about 400,000 deaths a year - https://theicct.org/news/health-impacts-transport-sector-pr-20190227.  How do you tally and charge that cost?  Currently, we just ignore it.

Have we tried?  Sure, to some extent.  That's the goal of most environmental regulation - to impose the costs and externalities upon the companies and people who are polluting.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #536 on: August 13, 2021, 12:58:28 PM »
I live at the edge of Toronto near a ravine.  There's a posted sign indicating that there's a 5000$ fine for dumping garbage.  At least once a week late at night someone will back up a pickup truck or moving van and dump garbage in the ravine.  Construction waste, household garbage, packing peanuts, ugh.  (We charge 16$ for 100kg of garbage at the Toronto dump.)  After moving in to this house I was picking there pretty regularly to try to clean it up before finally giving up.  I tried contacting the police, and they said that they would send someone out but nothing seems to have come from it (or maybe they caught some people, but others continued).  My point being - there actually are a lot of people who dump trash in the forest to save a buck.  This same sort of thing is true of most places.  Take a walk near any well travelled road and look at the ground.  I bet you won't get far before you start seeing cigarette butts, straws, bits of plastic bags, etc.

And how many people live in Toronto? How many actually do this? Could you work on reducing it? Sure. Is it the majority of the population? Almost certainly not. Now what about driving cars with no carbon tax?

Tyler durden

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #537 on: August 13, 2021, 01:01:19 PM »
[
Fact - Biden is making it more difficult to move the oil via pipeline, hence further damaging the climate through more oil spills and more CO2 emissions moving the oil via rail.


You seem to be under this strange notion that Biden somehow stopped the Keystone XL (i.e. Phase IV) from being built.  It didn’t get permitted under Trump. It didn’t get permitted under Obama.  The whole process started under W. The entire project could be a case study for “how NOT to go about building an international an international pipeline.”
About the only difference I can see here between Trump and Biden is that Trump promised to get the pipeline built, and failed, whereas Biden promised to stop it, and succeeded insofar as he’s taking credit for stopping an already broken down project. It’s the equivalent of jumping in front of a broken-down truck hours after the wheels fell off and saying “I wouldn’t let it pass through!”  - technically true, but rather meaningless.

If you want to fault Biden for taking credit for something he really had very little to do, I agree. But assigning blame is attributing far more to credit than is deserved.

Not sure how to respond here. This seems quite straightforward. Obama stopped it as best he could, Trump restarted it and Biden put the final nail in the coffin

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/09/keystone-pipeline-canceled-after-biden-had-blocked-permit/7627122002/

BILLINGS, Mont. – The sponsor of the Keystone XL crude oil pipeline said Wednesday it is pulling the plug on the contentious project after Canadian officials failed to persuade President Joe Biden to reverse his cancellation of its permit on the day he took office.

Calgary-based TC Energy said it would work with government agencies “to ensure a safe termination of and exit from” the partially built line, which was to transport crude from the oil sand fields of western Canada to Steele City, Nebraska.

Construction on the 1,200-mile pipeline began last year when former President Donald Trump revived the long-delayed project after it had stalled under the Obama administration.


The. Oil. Is. Coming. Out. Of. The. Ground.

It will now be transported via more environmentally harmful ways in large part due to Obama and now as much Biden.


GuitarStv

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #538 on: August 13, 2021, 01:02:54 PM »
I live at the edge of Toronto near a ravine.  There's a posted sign indicating that there's a 5000$ fine for dumping garbage.  At least once a week late at night someone will back up a pickup truck or moving van and dump garbage in the ravine.  Construction waste, household garbage, packing peanuts, ugh.  (We charge 16$ for 100kg of garbage at the Toronto dump.)  After moving in to this house I was picking there pretty regularly to try to clean it up before finally giving up.  I tried contacting the police, and they said that they would send someone out but nothing seems to have come from it (or maybe they caught some people, but others continued).  My point being - there actually are a lot of people who dump trash in the forest to save a buck.  This same sort of thing is true of most places.  Take a walk near any well travelled road and look at the ground.  I bet you won't get far before you start seeing cigarette butts, straws, bits of plastic bags, etc.

And how many people live in Toronto? How many actually do this?

Lots of people, and probably few.  But that's the thing.  You don't need many people to dump garbage to trash an area - and thus for the whole thing to fail.


Could you work on reducing it? Sure. Is it the majority of the population? Almost certainly not. Now what about driving cars with no carbon tax?

What about a carbon tax?  That's only one of a great many externalities that are not accounted for when driving a car.

PDXTabs

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #539 on: August 13, 2021, 01:07:58 PM »
Could you work on reducing it? Sure. Is it the majority of the population? Almost certainly not. Now what about driving cars with no carbon tax?

What about a carbon tax?  That's only one of a great many externalities that are not accounted for when driving a car.

I completely agree. But have we ever tried to price in the externalities? We're like an alcoholic that says that they couldn't possibly quit drinking but has never attended a single AA meeting or ever spoken to their doctor about quitting.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #540 on: August 13, 2021, 01:40:29 PM »
Could you work on reducing it? Sure. Is it the majority of the population? Almost certainly not. Now what about driving cars with no carbon tax?

What about a carbon tax?  That's only one of a great many externalities that are not accounted for when driving a car.

I completely agree. But have we ever tried to price in the externalities? We're like an alcoholic that says that they couldn't possibly quit drinking but has never attended a single AA meeting or ever spoken to their doctor about quitting.

Sure, we try to price in externalities all the time.  In Quebec we have priced externalities of winter driving crashes by forcing all drivers to use winter tires during certain months with unclear results (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-does-quebecs-mandatory-winter-tire-law-actually-make-roads-safer/).  But what price do you put on a life, or the extinction of a species?  What price do you put on the effects of climate change?  How do you measure the effectiveness of these things we're doing?  We can randomly slap prices on these things and that might help a bit, but there's no way to make them meaningful without quantifying the damage they're supposed to be responsible for.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #541 on: August 13, 2021, 01:55:39 PM »
[
Fact - Biden is making it more difficult to move the oil via pipeline, hence further damaging the climate through more oil spills and more CO2 emissions moving the oil via rail.


You seem to be under this strange notion that Biden somehow stopped the Keystone XL (i.e. Phase IV) from being built.  It didn’t get permitted under Trump. It didn’t get permitted under Obama.  The whole process started under W. The entire project could be a case study for “how NOT to go about building an international an international pipeline.”
About the only difference I can see here between Trump and Biden is that Trump promised to get the pipeline built, and failed, whereas Biden promised to stop it, and succeeded insofar as he’s taking credit for stopping an already broken down project. It’s the equivalent of jumping in front of a broken-down truck hours after the wheels fell off and saying “I wouldn’t let it pass through!”  - technically true, but rather meaningless.

If you want to fault Biden for taking credit for something he really had very little to do, I agree. But assigning blame is attributing far more to credit than is deserved.

Not sure how to respond here. This seems quite straightforward. Obama stopped it as best he could, Trump restarted it and Biden put the final nail in the coffin

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/09/keystone-pipeline-canceled-after-biden-had-blocked-permit/7627122002/

BILLINGS, Mont. – The sponsor of the Keystone XL crude oil pipeline said Wednesday it is pulling the plug on the contentious project after Canadian officials failed to persuade President Joe Biden to reverse his cancellation of its permit on the day he took office.

Calgary-based TC Energy said it would work with government agencies “to ensure a safe termination of and exit from” the partially built line, which was to transport crude from the oil sand fields of western Canada to Steele City, Nebraska.

Construction on the 1,200-mile pipeline began last year when former President Donald Trump revived the long-delayed project after it had stalled under the Obama administration.


The. Oil. Is. Coming. Out. Of. The. Ground.

It will now be transported via more environmentally harmful ways in large part due to Obama and now as much Biden.

The. Earliest. This. Pipe. Could. Even. Be. Finished. Is. In. A. Year. And. A. Half.

This isn't a project that Biden would snap his fingers and it'd be done next month. It was almost 7 years in the making and about 8% done. Trump restarted diddly squat.

The oil coming out of the ground now is completely irrelevant as to whether you should build a pipe or not for use years in the future.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #542 on: August 13, 2021, 02:51:43 PM »
Sure, we try to price in externalities all the time.  In Quebec we have priced externalities of winter driving crashes by forcing all drivers to use winter tires during certain months with unclear results (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-does-quebecs-mandatory-winter-tire-law-actually-make-roads-safer/).  But what price do you put on a life, or the extinction of a species?  What price do you put on the effects of climate change?  How do you measure the effectiveness of these things we're doing?  We can randomly slap prices on these things and that might help a bit, but there's no way to make them meaningful without quantifying the damage they're supposed to be responsible for.

I disagree. Forcing drivers to equip their cars with winter tires is not pricing in any externality. For a thorough discussion of this situation, originally published in 1993, I highly recommend The Elephant in the Bedroom: Automobile Dependence & Denial: Impacts on the Economy and Environment by Alvin L. Spivak and Stanley I. Hart. There may be better analysis since, but the fact that it was originally published in 1993 and no one has done anything to move things forward kind of proves my point about not trying.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #543 on: August 13, 2021, 03:12:50 PM »
Sure, we try to price in externalities all the time.  In Quebec we have priced externalities of winter driving crashes by forcing all drivers to use winter tires during certain months with unclear results (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-does-quebecs-mandatory-winter-tire-law-actually-make-roads-safer/).  But what price do you put on a life, or the extinction of a species?  What price do you put on the effects of climate change?  How do you measure the effectiveness of these things we're doing?  We can randomly slap prices on these things and that might help a bit, but there's no way to make them meaningful without quantifying the damage they're supposed to be responsible for.

I disagree. Forcing drivers to equip their cars with winter tires is not pricing in any externality. For a thorough discussion of this situation, originally published in 1993, I highly recommend The Elephant in the Bedroom: Automobile Dependence & Denial: Impacts on the Economy and Environment by Alvin L. Spivak and Stanley I. Hart. There may be better analysis since, but the fact that it was originally published in 1993 and no one has done anything to move things forward kind of proves my point about not trying.

Forcing cars to drive with winter tires is a novel price added to the cost of driving with the goal of reducing the cost of an externality (accidents), isn't it?  But sure, I can agree that pricing externalities has never been done from a pollution/death cost with cars (and most other things).  Why do you believe this is the case?

My belief is that it's really hard to make a case for an externality that is supposed to cost a potential future problem without having any way of estimating that problem.  Couple that with the immediate monetary and political benefits of not doing anything - and it seems like any serious pricing of externality will always be stillborn.

(BTW, thanks for the book recommendation.  I'll check it out.)

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #544 on: August 13, 2021, 03:51:41 PM »
Forcing cars to drive with winter tires is a novel price added to the cost of driving with the goal of reducing the cost of an externality (accidents), isn't it?

I would argue that it is a cost incurred by the driver to reduce an externality. But that they are still externalizing some of their costs onto others and that that price has not been priced in.

But sure, I can agree that pricing externalities has never been done from a pollution/death cost with cars (and most other things).  Why do you believe this is the case?

My personal opinion is that Americans (at least in the USA sense) don't like to pay for things. They used to be willing to pay for things, and then Reagan happened on the right (there was a brief hiatus for Bush Sr who was arguably reasonable). Then, sometime perhaps during the Obama presidency (he had the opportunity to let the W Bush tax cuts expire and didn't) the left decided that they didn't want to pay for anything either. There is now a culture of not wanting to pay for anything, EVAR. EDITed to add: we haven't raised the gas tax since 1993.

But in the USA case, we haven't even gotten to the only externalizing your costs state. We are still actively subsidizing private car ownership. Our tax policy is such that plenty of road money for cars is paid for by either income taxes or property taxes. It gets worse if you start to look at the cost of police and medical response for automobile collisions, which is almost entirely paid for my property taxes. Then you move on to parking which is frequently provided as a tax free benefit to employees. The list just keeps getting longer (mandatory parking for businesses that don't want it, etc). But the average driver reaps more rewards than they pay for. The average voter drives. I don't expect it to change anytime soon. We are doomed.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2021, 04:10:24 PM by PDXTabs »

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #545 on: August 13, 2021, 08:53:07 PM »
And my counter-intuitive position has long been that--if anything--the market is too good at solving problems.

I'm curious what you mean by too good?

I do tend to agree that in the medium/long term markets are very good at their job if you remove all the externalities or price them appropriately. And I'm a tree huger that wants to save the planet while feeding and housing everyone.
Markets exist to provide people with what they want. However, what people want is coupled to what is possible and to what is available. When what is possible or available results in pathological exploits in the biological desires of people, we see various maladaptive outcomes. One particular set of such traps consists of hyperstimuli; e.g., drugs, porn, garbage-food, trash-tv, etc. By being so good at providing people what they want (given the reality of hyperbolic discounting), markets make us worse. If markets were worse at manipulating these hedonistic exploits, we would be better off.

Compared to these problems, I believe market failures are a rounding error in the danger posed by markets. Increasingly I think the solution is something like a spiritual awakening from the cynical local optima offered by market outcomes. There needs to be a striving above and beyond the immediate gratification modern supply chains and technology platforms can provide.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #546 on: August 13, 2021, 09:15:06 PM »
lost_in_the_endless_aisle,

You might be right about that.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #547 on: August 13, 2021, 09:16:48 PM »
Forcing cars to drive with winter tires is a novel price added to the cost of driving with the goal of reducing the cost of an externality (accidents), isn't it?

I would argue that it is a cost incurred by the driver to reduce an externality. But that they are still externalizing some of their costs onto others and that that price has not been priced in.

But sure, I can agree that pricing externalities has never been done from a pollution/death cost with cars (and most other things).  Why do you believe this is the case?

My personal opinion is that Americans (at least in the USA sense) don't like to pay for things. They used to be willing to pay for things, and then Reagan happened on the right (there was a brief hiatus for Bush Sr who was arguably reasonable). Then, sometime perhaps during the Obama presidency (he had the opportunity to let the W Bush tax cuts expire and didn't) the left decided that they didn't want to pay for anything either. There is now a culture of not wanting to pay for anything, EVAR. EDITed to add: we haven't raised the gas tax since 1993.

But in the USA case, we haven't even gotten to the only externalizing your costs state. We are still actively subsidizing private car ownership. Our tax policy is such that plenty of road money for cars is paid for by either income taxes or property taxes. It gets worse if you start to look at the cost of police and medical response for automobile collisions, which is almost entirely paid for my property taxes. Then you move on to parking which is frequently provided as a tax free benefit to employees. The list just keeps getting longer (mandatory parking for businesses that don't want it, etc). But the average driver reaps more rewards than they pay for. The average voter drives. I don't expect it to change anytime soon. We are doomed.

It's not just an American problem.  No countries are interested in pricing externalities.  Doing so is economically negative, which impacts people's short term future (jobs/cash/happiness) and thus is incredibly politically unpalatable.

PDXTabs

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #548 on: August 13, 2021, 09:32:33 PM »
It's not just an American problem.  No countries are interested in pricing externalities.  Doing so is economically negative, which impacts people's short term future (jobs/cash/happiness) and thus is incredibly politically unpalatable.

Well, we'll see. I would imagine that you'll see the EU implement CBAM in the next few years. But as of today you are mostly probably right. https://www.economist.com/business/2021/08/07/the-eus-proposed-carbon-tariff-gets-a-mixed-reaction-from-industry

Also, most countries don't subsidize cars the way that the USA does. Even Canada taxes new car sales.

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Re: Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )
« Reply #549 on: August 14, 2021, 05:10:21 PM »

The. Oil. Is. Coming. Out. Of. The. Ground.


The. Earliest. This. Pipe. Could. Even. Be. Finished. Is. In. A. Year. And. A. Half.


Why. Are. We. Using. Erroneous. Punctuation?

Saying “the oil is coming out of hte ground” doesn’t make any bloody sense if you follow the massive layoffs that occur in Alberta every time the price of crude drops below a particular (rather high) threshold. Most of the bitumen sands haven’t gone anywhere, and at this point a lot of analysts are skeptical that the lion’s share ever will. I’ve actually lived in Canada for the last decade, so perhaps I get a bit different coverage of what’s going on than in the US.

It also doesn’t seem very likely that we will pump all oil out of the ground everywhere, as much of is is just too damn expensive to extract at this point, and other forms of energy have gotten relatively cheaper. And has been pointed out multiple times, not all crude is equivalent -not from an energy extraction standpoint, not from an environmental standpoint, not from a geopolitical standpoint, not from a a feasibility standpoint.