Biden's policies debated ( formerly known as Biden outrage of the day )

[Michael in ABQ]

Oh get out of here with that Heritage Foundation talk. Wages have been growing faster than inflation, almost double. Manchin's talk of inflation was always a smoke screen for dumping the BBB. It was an obvious ruse from the start.

Source? The official inflation rate is 6.8% https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm#

Pretty damn sure wages have not increased 13-14% in the last year. My military pay is going up 2.7% for 2022. Any research I could find showed projected wage increases of about 4% - well below inflation.

Also, I don't buy that inflation is only 7%. My suppliers for my business have been increasing prices more than that in just the last 6 months. I'm certainly raising my prices as well.

[pecunia]

Funny thing is - Nobody talks inflation when they all jump to vote for the jumbo military bills.

[FIPurpose]

Oh get out of here with that Heritage Foundation talk. Wages have been growing faster than inflation, almost double. Manchin's talk of inflation was always a smoke screen for dumping the BBB. It was an obvious ruse from the start.

Source? The official inflation rate is 6.8% https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm#

Pretty damn sure wages have not increased 13-14% in the last year. My military pay is going up 2.7% for 2022. Any research I could find showed projected wage increases of about 4% - well below inflation.

Also, I don't buy that inflation is only 7%. My suppliers for my business have been increasing prices more than that in just the last 6 months. I'm certainly raising my prices as well.

1. Inflation is not the same for all goods. The goods you deal in might have high spikes, but other goods are down in price. You can google for goods that continue to go down in price. There are long lists of consumer goods that are not inflating. The 5% inflation is the average across a typical basket of goods a person buys.

2. The 6.8% is only the annualized rate for Nov. The average for 2021 will be closer to ~5%.

My wage growth numbers were from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. But even if we were to take 4% wage growth, then we're only talking about a -1% in real terms. Not good, but not exactly anything to delay legislative action that would actually help. Just saw now that Goldman Sachs has readjusted their GP forecasts downward because of Manchin's move as well. Our GDP will be about .5% lower than it would've been in the short term.

Manchin's blocking of the bill 100% hurts WV. There's nothing else I can see but simple, selfish greed on his part.

[PDXTabs]

1. Inflation is not the same for all goods. The goods you deal in might have high spikes, but other goods are down in price. You can google for goods that continue to go down in price. There are long lists of consumer goods that are not inflating. The 5% inflation is the average across a typical basket of goods a person buys.

2. The 6.8% is only the annualized rate for Nov. The average for 2021 will be closer to ~5%.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/business/cpi-inflation-november-2021.html

Yea, which is why we have an index of a whole bunch of stuff, and it's up 6.8% year-over-year, not annualized.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/business/cpi-inflation-november-2021.html

Manchin's blocking of the bill 100% hurts WV.

I agree.

[former player]

It is hard to not be hypocritical on coal and natural gas when 60% of the US power grid uses those two fuels.  I am typing this from a warm house (it is 19 degrees and snowing outside) and likely a good portion of the electricity being used to power my laptop and heat our home is coming from coal or natural gas.

Admittedly it is a 1 bedroom apartment and we keep the heat at 65 F but still....I am consuming those fuels so not going to throw too many stones here.

What? No one that I know of is calling Manchin a hypocrite. Just highly biased.

Saying what future funding should go towards different power sources has nothing to do with today's power generation.

Maybe the hypocrisy is in Manchin calling himself a Democrat.  And if he prevents election reform calling himself a democrat.

[FIPurpose]

Yea, which is why we have an index of a whole bunch of stuff, and it's up 6.8% year-over-year, not annualized.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/business/cpi-inflation-november-2021.html

Thanks for the correction. Though still a bit misleading I think to the typical consumer. It makes for big headlines, but it doesn't mean that a person has experience +6.8% to their annual budget. It means that they experienced 1 month of 6.8% compared to last Nov. So you have to consider that the inflation rate in Jan/Feb was around 1.5%. If inflation drops back down to +5.5% or so for Dec, then that means prices are starting to come back down. So when considering a budget over the course of a year, the inflation rate at any given month only tells a part of the story.

[LennStar]

I have never met someone who was deeply worried about inflation, and for that rejected a pay rise, even though pay rises are the main factors for inflation. (Second is simply that the more stuff we use up, the more expensive it becomes. Surprise!)

[Just Joe]

You guys might believe those fancy econ professors in suits saying it won't increase inflation, but people who are living paycheck to paycheck know that when the government pumps another trillion into the economy after the last few, it's going to get worse. Giving them a few extra dollars to send their kids to a public daycare isn't going to help many people at all.

When we had one kid in daycare it was $450 a month. That was equal to our first home payment and what we were paying on our one (and only) new car.

Daycare assistance would have helped us escape our self-inflicted debt much faster. I wonder if it will help people or if it will bring out the capitalists to soak up any newly found spare dollars in the form of car payments and $250 sneakers.

[PDXTabs]

You guys might believe those fancy econ professors in suits saying it won't increase inflation, but people who are living paycheck to paycheck know that when the government pumps another trillion into the economy after the last few, it's going to get worse. Giving them a few extra dollars to send their kids to a public daycare isn't going to help many people at all.

When we had one kid in daycare it was $450 a month. That was equal to our first home payment and what we were paying on our one (and only) new car.

Daycare assistance would have helped us escape our self-inflicted debt much faster. I wonder if it will help people or if it will bring out the capitalists to soak up any newly found spare dollars in the form of car payments and $250 sneakers.

Inflation is complicated. If pouring money into daycare increases the supply side of goods it could absolutely lead to lower inflation. Even more confusingly, pouring money into infrastructure could cause a temporary increase but a long term decrease of inflation while simultaneously raising economic output.

[Hash Brown]

Seems to me like this move might be part of a broader D strategy to push Biden out of the 2024 race. 

[Phenix]

Seems to me like this move might be part of a broader D strategy to push Biden out of the 2024 race.

Was there ever any intention of him being in the 2024 race from the Democrat Party?

[Michael in ABQ]

Yea, which is why we have an index of a whole bunch of stuff, and it's up 6.8% year-over-year, not annualized.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/business/cpi-inflation-november-2021.html

Thanks for the correction. Though still a bit misleading I think to the typical consumer. It makes for big headlines, but it doesn't mean that a person has experience +6.8% to their annual budget. It means that they experienced 1 month of 6.8% compared to last Nov. So you have to consider that the inflation rate in Jan/Feb was around 1.5%. If inflation drops back down to +5.5% or so for Dec, then that means prices are starting to come back down. So when considering a budget over the course of a year, the inflation rate at any given month only tells a part of the story.

Cost of tuition for my children's school is going up - 12% YoY
Cost of my rent is going up - 4.4% YoY
Cost of food is going up.

There may be some durable household goods like TVs going down in price, but the things that make up the vast majority of our household budget have all gone up in cost - and are not going to come back down. When was the last time tuition ever went down? Or rent? Food prices may fluctuate but inflation is the reason that a candy bar that costs $0.10 for our grandparents and $0.25 for our parents is now $1.00+.

[sailinlight]

You guys might believe those fancy econ professors in suits saying it won't increase inflation, but people who are living paycheck to paycheck know that when the government pumps another trillion into the economy after the last few, it's going to get worse. Giving them a few extra dollars to send their kids to a public daycare isn't going to help many people at all.

When we had one kid in daycare it was $450 a month. That was equal to our first home payment and what we were paying on our one (and only) new car.

Daycare assistance would have helped us escape our self-inflicted debt much faster. I wonder if it will help people or if it will bring out the capitalists to soak up any newly found spare dollars in the form of car payments and $250 sneakers.

Inflation is complicated. If pouring money into daycare increases the supply side of goods it could absolutely lead to lower inflation. Even more confusingly, pouring money into infrastructure could cause a temporary increase but a long term decrease of inflation while simultaneously raising economic output.

I think what we've seen with higher education is when the government massively subsidizes something, it becomes more expensive to meet the subsidy amount.

[FIPurpose]

Yea, which is why we have an index of a whole bunch of stuff, and it's up 6.8% year-over-year, not annualized.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/business/cpi-inflation-november-2021.html

Thanks for the correction. Though still a bit misleading I think to the typical consumer. It makes for big headlines, but it doesn't mean that a person has experience +6.8% to their annual budget. It means that they experienced 1 month of 6.8% compared to last Nov. So you have to consider that the inflation rate in Jan/Feb was around 1.5%. If inflation drops back down to +5.5% or so for Dec, then that means prices are starting to come back down. So when considering a budget over the course of a year, the inflation rate at any given month only tells a part of the story.

Cost of tuition for my children's school is going up - 12% YoY
Cost of my rent is going up - 4.4% YoY
Cost of food is going up.

There may be some durable household goods like TVs going down in price, but the things that make up the vast majority of our household budget have all gone up in cost - and are not going to come back down. When was the last time tuition ever went down? Or rent? Food prices may fluctuate but inflation is the reason that a candy bar that costs $0.10 for our grandparents and $0.25 for our parents is now $1.00+.

You picked a couple things that went up for you. So what? You're trying to say that the CPI isn't trustworthy? So then what are you suggesting is the correct measure? Your general fuzzy feeling about what you think inflation is?

You can read what categories aren't inflating by 6.8 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Namely:
Medical care commodities: 0.2
Medical care service: 2.1
Services - energy: 3.4
Shelter: 3.8
Transportation Services: 3.9
Clothes: 5

Anecdotes are fun, but don't really offer much about the greater reality.

[FIPurpose]

You guys might believe those fancy econ professors in suits saying it won't increase inflation, but people who are living paycheck to paycheck know that when the government pumps another trillion into the economy after the last few, it's going to get worse. Giving them a few extra dollars to send their kids to a public daycare isn't going to help many people at all.

When we had one kid in daycare it was $450 a month. That was equal to our first home payment and what we were paying on our one (and only) new car.

Daycare assistance would have helped us escape our self-inflicted debt much faster. I wonder if it will help people or if it will bring out the capitalists to soak up any newly found spare dollars in the form of car payments and $250 sneakers.

Inflation is complicated. If pouring money into daycare increases the supply side of goods it could absolutely lead to lower inflation. Even more confusingly, pouring money into infrastructure could cause a temporary increase but a long term decrease of inflation while simultaneously raising economic output.

I think what we've seen with higher education is when the government massively subsidizes something, it becomes more expensive to meet the subsidy amount.

This is a gross oversimplification of what's causing tuition rates to go up. Perhaps you should listen to those people with fancy econ degrees to get a better picture as to why that's happening. Cause this just sounds like more libertarian, anti-government talk a la Heritage Foundation.

[Michael in ABQ]

Yea, which is why we have an index of a whole bunch of stuff, and it's up 6.8% year-over-year, not annualized.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/business/cpi-inflation-november-2021.html

Thanks for the correction. Though still a bit misleading I think to the typical consumer. It makes for big headlines, but it doesn't mean that a person has experience +6.8% to their annual budget. It means that they experienced 1 month of 6.8% compared to last Nov. So you have to consider that the inflation rate in Jan/Feb was around 1.5%. If inflation drops back down to +5.5% or so for Dec, then that means prices are starting to come back down. So when considering a budget over the course of a year, the inflation rate at any given month only tells a part of the story.

Cost of tuition for my children's school is going up - 12% YoY
Cost of my rent is going up - 4.4% YoY
Cost of food is going up.

There may be some durable household goods like TVs going down in price, but the things that make up the vast majority of our household budget have all gone up in cost - and are not going to come back down. When was the last time tuition ever went down? Or rent? Food prices may fluctuate but inflation is the reason that a candy bar that costs $0.10 for our grandparents and $0.25 for our parents is now $1.00+.

You picked a couple things that went up for you. So what? You're trying to say that the CPI isn't trustworthy? So then what are you suggesting is the correct measure? Your general fuzzy feeling about what you think inflation is?

You can read what categories aren't inflating by 6.8 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Namely:
Medical care commodities: 0.2
Medical care service: 2.1
Services - energy: 3.4 [This is services, less energy - energy inflation is at 33%]
Shelter: 3.8
Transportation Services: 3.9
Clothes: 5

Anecdotes are fun, but don't really offer much about the greater reality.

So your original point was that wages are increasing at double the rate of inflation. I think I've shown that to be inaccurate. Also, that for things that make up a significant part of most people's budgets, there is significant inflation. Housing, food, education, energy, etc.

For instance, that shelter inflation of 3.8% reflects primarily the government surveying home owners for what they think they could rent their home for. That's a stupid way to measure shelter costs (as opposed to looking at actual rental rates) and misses the fact that for the tens of millions renting an apartment or house, those rental rates have increased well over 10% on average in the last year. I'll take measures from people who have money on the line, in this case real estate managers and investors, over government statistics. Here's one source from a company - Yardi - that provides rental software for millions of apartment units nationwide. I'd say that's a more credible data source than a government survey that a relative handful of people responded to.

https://www.multihousingnews.com/2021-rent-growth/

The beginning of the fourth quarter has registered new record growth in national multifamily fundamentals, according to Yardi Matrix’s latest survey: The national average rent rose 13.7 percent year-over-year through October, to a new high of $1,572, while the occupancy rate in stabilized properties rose 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in September, to 96.1 percent, an all-time high. September also marked the closure of the historical occupancy gap between the two quality segments. Meanwhile, single-family rentals also maintained a robust performance, the average rent rising 14.7 percent on an annual basis.

I spent a decade in the commercial real estate market so I know when the official government statistics are BS when it comes to the cost of rent. I don't have the same level of expertise when it comes to many of these other categories but it doesn't instill a lot of confidence.

Here's the "official" data for anyone who wants to look at it. https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm

And here's what's coming down the road. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally
adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6
percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand
index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month
data were first calculated in November 2010.

The producer price index is far higher than CPI. That's what I'm seeing in my business. Suppliers raising prices 10% in a matter of months, with more to come. All their price increases are going to filter down to the consumer level soon, if they haven't already.

[FIPurpose]

So your original point was that wages are increasing at double the rate of inflation. I think I've shown that to be inaccurate. Also, that for things that make up a significant part of most people's budgets, there is significant inflation. Housing, food, education, energy, etc.

For instance, that shelter inflation of 3.8% reflects primarily the government surveying home owners for what they think they could rent their home for. That's a stupid way to measure shelter costs (as opposed to looking at actual rental rates) and misses the fact that for the tens of millions renting an apartment or house, those rental rates have increased well over 10% on average in the last year. I'll take measures from people who have money on the line, in this case real estate managers and investors, over government statistics. Here's one source from a company - Yardi - that provides rental software for millions of apartment units nationwide. I'd say that's a more credible data source than a government survey that a relative handful of people responded to.

https://www.multihousingnews.com/2021-rent-growth/

The beginning of the fourth quarter has registered new record growth in national multifamily fundamentals, according to Yardi Matrix’s latest survey: The national average rent rose 13.7 percent year-over-year through October, to a new high of $1,572, while the occupancy rate in stabilized properties rose 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in September, to 96.1 percent, an all-time high. September also marked the closure of the historical occupancy gap between the two quality segments. Meanwhile, single-family rentals also maintained a robust performance, the average rent rising 14.7 percent on an annual basis.

I spent a decade in the commercial real estate market so I know when the official government statistics are BS when it comes to the cost of rent. I don't have the same level of expertise when it comes to many of these other categories but it doesn't instill a lot of confidence.

Here's the "official" data for anyone who wants to look at it. https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm

And here's what's coming down the road. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally
adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6
percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand
index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month
data were first calculated in November 2010.

The producer price index is far higher than CPI. That's what I'm seeing in my business. Suppliers raising prices 10% in a matter of months, with more to come. All their price increases are going to filter down to the consumer level soon, if they haven't already.

No you didn't. I told you I got that data from the BEA. I was granting you a 4% wage growth for the sake of argument.

You could've just said that you don't trust CPI. Ok. That's fine I guess, but you also didn't have a better alternative. So I guess that's the end of that conversation. And no, just because suppliers are raising prices doesn't mean that the consumer prices will go up by the same amount.

My own rent only went up about 1.5% this year. I also attend graduate school. They raised tuition by 2.5% for 2021-2022. My own pay has gone up ~30% this year. I however, realize that I am not representative of reality, nor is the handful of people that I know and talk to a significant sample size to draw general trends from. That would be like trying to figure out who will win an election based on the number of yard signs. IT just doesn't work and is more often just a re-enforcement of what you already think.

Perhaps you just live in an area that is rapidly growing and inflating in general.

[American GenX]

Yea, which is why we have an index of a whole bunch of stuff, and it's up 6.8% year-over-year, not annualized.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/business/cpi-inflation-november-2021.html

Thanks for the correction. Though still a bit misleading I think to the typical consumer. It makes for big headlines, but it doesn't mean that a person has experience +6.8% to their annual budget. It means that they experienced 1 month of 6.8% compared to last Nov. So you have to consider that the inflation rate in Jan/Feb was around 1.5%. If inflation drops back down to +5.5% or so for Dec, then that means prices are starting to come back down. So when considering a budget over the course of a year, the inflation rate at any given month only tells a part of the story.

Wrong!  I can't believe some of the comments I read here from people I would think would know better.   The 6.8% inflation year over year is comparing prices in November to a year ago.  That's how much more you're paying today than you were a year ago.  It's not just for one month.

And you also made the incorrect statement I've seen in the media from time to time from people who have no clue how inflation works.  If inflation drops, but is still a positive number, it does NOT mean that prices are starting to come back down.   If inflation drops to 5.5% next year from 6.8%, it just means prices won't increase quite as quickly as they had been, they WILL continue to go up.  That's very very different than prices coming down.  That will require deflation to bring prices down, albeit there may be some items that have gone up so much that prices are likely to come down on some things, but not on balance in the grand scheme of things.

The government inflation figures have always been lower than what I've seen in price increases.  Over the last year, I would estimate my costs are up 15% just buying the same stuff due to big increases in homeowners insurance, gas prices, natural gas, property tax, health insurance, most groceries, repair parts, building materials.    And the big increase in home prices has pretty much derailed my plans of relocating.

The wage increases are brought on by too many people not wanting to work, minimum wage increases, too much stimulus.  It's not due to a healthy economy.  Inflation is being caused by a host of issues.  And let's remember, retired people aren't going to get that wage increase to offset part of that soaring inflation.  And seniors are seeing their Medicare premiums go up more than their SS COLA increase is giving them.  If they have a big savings very conservatively invested, the same dollars of savings won't go nearly as far today as they would have a year ago.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/opinions/manchin-torpedo-biden-build-back-better-dent/index.html

[FIPurpose]

Yea, which is why we have an index of a whole bunch of stuff, and it's up 6.8% year-over-year, not annualized.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/business/cpi-inflation-november-2021.html

Thanks for the correction. Though still a bit misleading I think to the typical consumer. It makes for big headlines, but it doesn't mean that a person has experience +6.8% to their annual budget. It means that they experienced 1 month of 6.8% compared to last Nov. So you have to consider that the inflation rate in Jan/Feb was around 1.5%. If inflation drops back down to +5.5% or so for Dec, then that means prices are starting to come back down. So when considering a budget over the course of a year, the inflation rate at any given month only tells a part of the story.

Wrong!  I can't believe some of the comments I read here from people I would think would know better.   The 6.8% inflation year over year is comparing prices in November to a year ago.  That's how much more you're paying today than you were a year ago.  It's not just for one month.

And you also made the incorrect statement I've seen in the media from time to time from people who have no clue how inflation works.  If inflation drops, but is still a positive number, it does NOT mean that prices are starting to come back down.   If inflation drops to 5.5% from 6.8%, it just means prices won't increase quite as quickly as they had been, they WILL continue to go up.  That's very very different than prices coming down.

The government inflation figures have always been lower than what I've seen in price increases.  Over the last year, I would estimate my costs are up 15% just buying the same stuff due to big increases in homeowners insurance, gas prices, natural gas, property tax, health insurance, most groceries, repair parts, building materials.    And the big increase in home prices has pretty much derailed my plans of relocating.

The wage increases are brought on by too many people not wanting to work, minimum wage increases, too much stimulus.  It's not due to a healthy economy.  Inflation is being caused by a host of issues.  And let's remember, retired people aren't going to get that wage increase to offset part of that soaring inflation.  And seniors are seeing their Medicare premiums go up more than their SS COLA increase is giving them.

I think maybe you should take a math class. If YoY inflation in Nov is +6.8% and the YoY inflation in Dec is +5.5%, then that means the price change would be ((6.8-5.5) + whatever the difference was between Nov and Dec from a year prior) Since the difference between Nov and Dec 2020 inflation was about .2%, then YoY inflation dropping 1.3% from one month to the next would mean that prices are coming back down.

Prices are up relative to where they were a year ago, but down compared to where they were a month ago.

Also wage increases are not due to people not wanting to work. You can find plenty of articles showing that the labor shortage is almost exclusively due to a lot of older people taking early retirement during covid. And they won't be coming back. Which means, increased wages are here to stay for the long term.

[pecunia]

Other than gasoline, do you see many prices ever come down?  The government wants some inflation.

The wage increases are brought on by too many people not wanting to work, minimum wage increases, too much stimulus.  It's not due to a healthy economy.  Inflation is being caused by a host of issues.

Why would people not wanting to work raise prices?  Why is it only minimum wage increases that are noted?

Here's what my common sense outlook tells me.  If minimum wages are increased people spend it on staples.  I doubt whether demand is increased enough to stimulate the supply demand curve to raise prices.  I would thing that folks above the minimum wage threshold would have that effect, but not folks at the very bottom.  It may mean they don't need to go to the payday loan place as often.

On the other hand, when greedy landlords know minimum wages have risen, they may take that money by deciding to raise rents.  This is about the only way I see minimum wage folks are causing inflation.  Minimum wage people barely scrape by.  Buying another loaf of bread probably won't make much difference.

I also don't see why someone not wanting to work causes inflation.  They have to live off savings and pensions.  They certainly aren't going to be making purchases to drive demand and pricing.

You could make the argument that other people have to take the place of those of us who don't want to work.  By limiting the supply of workers, wages are driven up and this is being passed on to the consumer.  However previous posts have said wages aren't rising all that fast for most people.

I've heard another reason prices are rising.  It's one I believe.  A lot of stuff we buy is controlled by big corporations without true competition. Why do they raise prices?  It's because they can.  It makes more money for them.  I think prices are going up to simply make more money for companies.  The Covid and the perceived inflation give them a reason that the public will accept.  They used to call it greed, but there may be a more gentle word.

I also think the increased money supply has an effect.  However, I'm not sure of the mechanism from this to the price increases.

[PDXTabs]

Other than gasoline, do you see many prices ever come down?  The government wants some inflation.

The government does want some inflation. But to answer your question:
1. TVs
2. Computers
3. Cloud computing services
4. AR-15s

[Travis]

It is hard to not be hypocritical on coal and natural gas when 60% of the US power grid uses those two fuels.  I am typing this from a warm house (it is 19 degrees and snowing outside) and likely a good portion of the electricity being used to power my laptop and heat our home is coming from coal or natural gas.

Admittedly it is a 1 bedroom apartment and we keep the heat at 65 F but still....I am consuming those fuels so not going to throw too many stones here.

What? No one that I know of is calling Manchin a hypocrite. Just highly biased.

But also, arguably, whatever we eventually do to curtail coal will be a worse deal for West Virginia. According to the WSJ the White House basically told Manchin that he could have whatever he wanted to help the workers in West Virginia who would be impacted and he turned them down. In the short term that might be good for those workers, in the long term they might never see another deal this good:

The White House set up a special program to focus on coal communities. It steered money into developing how to extract rare earths from coal waste, coal waste that is very prevalent in West Virginia. It has told him that the government will invest a lot of money in something called carbon capture and sequestration technology, which would allow the emissions from coal fired power plants to be captured and buried underground. So in other words, paying lip service to this idea that you can still continue to have coal and gas fired electricity plants. It's offered him every inducement it can. It has made his wife the chairperson of an Appalachian commission focused on business development, basically, in the area. Democrats included in its tax plan money that would specifically go to coal communities like West Virginia. It's thrown everything at him and at some point it's clear that the promises people are making to Joe Manchin that West Virginia will have a place on the clean energy future these arguments are not working. - WSJ: Biden's Climate Ambitions Die in the Senate

To me that just smacks of short-termism.

Did Joe Manchin do his thing for money or for the folks in West Virginia?

 In 2020, 11,418 people were working in West Virginia's coal industry in total. Of that number, 80 percent of the employees worked in underground coal mines.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/215786/coal-mining-employment-in-west-virginia/

West Virginia has 1.8 million people.

I grew up in an iron mining town.  It was always the nature of mining that it was somewhat volatile.   

I wonder if those 11,418 people would have considered Biden's offer.  I figure some of them may have liked to avoid the black lung.

Coal power plants have been closing like dominoes without the bill.  I'm sure the miners have seen that.

They do.

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/586661-coal-miners-union-urges-manchin-to-reconsider

[MasterStache]

Yea, which is why we have an index of a whole bunch of stuff, and it's up 6.8% year-over-year, not annualized.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/business/cpi-inflation-november-2021.html

Thanks for the correction. Though still a bit misleading I think to the typical consumer. It makes for big headlines, but it doesn't mean that a person has experience +6.8% to their annual budget. It means that they experienced 1 month of 6.8% compared to last Nov. So you have to consider that the inflation rate in Jan/Feb was around 1.5%. If inflation drops back down to +5.5% or so for Dec, then that means prices are starting to come back down. So when considering a budget over the course of a year, the inflation rate at any given month only tells a part of the story.

Wrong!  I can't believe some of the comments I read here from people I would think would know better.   The 6.8% inflation year over year is comparing prices in November to a year ago.  That's how much more you're paying today than you were a year ago.  It's not just for one month.

It technically is only one month that folks experienced 6.8% inflation. Your comment bears that out. The average consumer paid 6.8% more in the month of November this year compared to the month of November 2020. That doesn't mean they paid 6.8% every month in between. December will bring a new adjusted inflation number for which prices will be averaged only for that month and compared to December last year. 

And you also made the incorrect statement I've seen in the media from time to time from people who have no clue how inflation works.  If inflation drops, but is still a positive number, it does NOT mean that prices are starting to come back down.

The statement wasn't comparing prices to last year but rather comparing prices to the previous month. As we saw inflation increase this year month after month it was indeed a result of rising prices. If we start to see inflation numbers decrease, it will indeed be a result of decreasing prices. Again on a month to month basis. That doesn't mean prices are suddenly lower than December of last year. We don't suddenly go from inflation to deflation (withstanding some rare instances in time of course). 

And let's remember, retired people aren't going to get that wage increase to offset part of that soaring inflation.

Retired people typically aren't earning wages. The huge influx of retirees have no plans to return to work. I don't blame them. I wouldn't put my health and my life at risk considering the number of anti-vaxxers there are.

And seniors are seeing their Medicare premiums go up more than their SS COLA increase is giving them.

Medicare Part B premiums will cost $170.10 in 2022, up from $148.50 in 2021, a 14.5% increase. SS COLA adjustments will see an increase of 5.9%, the largest in nearly 4 decades. On a per dollar basis the SS COLA increase is estimated to average $92 per recipient, which of course is higher than the $21.60 in Medicare Part B premium increase.

Speaking of rising Medicare Premiums, too bad there isn't some sort of vaccine to combat this global pandemic that could help alleviate a lot of deaths, fears and ease rising healthcare cost, especially for seniors. Or, perhaps some proposed legislation that would cap drug prices and expand Medicaid services for millions of seniors. I realize that doesn't make for good politics though. 

[MasterStache]

Giving them a few extra dollars to send their kids to a public daycare isn't going to help many people at all.

In a 2021 Cost of Care Survey, 85% of parents surveyed say they are spending 10% or more of their household income on child care. The average cost of daycare during the school year is roughly $750/child/month. During the summer, it's even higher at around $834. The proposal would cap daycare expenses at 7% of income for families making up to 150% of SMI (State's Median Income). Those making 75% or less of their states SMI would pay nothing. An hourly person suddenly going from paying roughly $10K in annual childcare expenses to paying nothing certainly seems absolutely beneficial and absolutely would help get women back in the workforce. It would also increase the wage of daycare workers, which is a big reason why there is such a shortage of workers.

It's always good to toss out numbers rather than making blanket statements. $10K sounds fantastic. If you are an hourly employee, I can't even begin to imagine the world of difference that would make. Maybe we as a society could try to empathize more with the working class, especially mothers. Just seemingly so quick to downplay and minimize people's situations.   

[gentmach]

I also think the increased money supply has an effect.  However, I'm not sure of the mechanism from this to the price increases.

More competition at the market. More demand. If you are bidding for a product or a service and there are more people bidding, the higher the cost.

Imagine an auction. You have the usual crowd every week and prices generally stable. Now double the crowd because people now have more money to spend. Now prices increase because people are competing for the same amount of supplies.

[FIPurpose]

I also think the increased money supply has an effect.  However, I'm not sure of the mechanism from this to the price increases.

More competition at the market. More demand. If you are bidding for a product or a service and there are more people bidding, the higher the cost.

Imagine an auction. You have the usual crowd every week and prices generally stable. Now double the crowd because people now have more money to spend. Now prices increase because people are competing for the same amount of supplies.

You have to caveat everything in economics with a giant "Maybe". Because people will take this as some law that just because you hand everyone more money, that prices for whatever they buy must go up. It also depends heavily on the elasticity of the item in the market. Some items may not be able to go up in price if there's an acceptable alternative that can maintain a more competitive price. Or there may be some other reason as to a product's elasticity.

There are lots of exceptions to the general rules that people often quote that make economics a far messier subject than libertarians would like to admit.

[GuitarStv]

Other than gasoline, do you see many prices ever come down?  The government wants some inflation.

The government does want some inflation. But to answer your question:
1. TVs
2. Computers
3. Cloud computing services
4. AR-15s

Decent quality musical instruments are crazy cheap right now.  Just about any 300$ guitar that you pickup will play well, intonate properly, and sound decent.  You can buy a Boss Katana these days for 200$ that blows away Fender's cyber series of modelling stuff that was priced in the 90s for more than a grand.

[gentmach]

I also think the increased money supply has an effect.  However, I'm not sure of the mechanism from this to the price increases.

More competition at the market. More demand. If you are bidding for a product or a service and there are more people bidding, the higher the cost.

Imagine an auction. You have the usual crowd every week and prices generally stable. Now double the crowd because people now have more money to spend. Now prices increase because people are competing for the same amount of supplies.

You have to caveat everything in economics with a giant "Maybe". Because people will take this as some law that just because you hand everyone more money, that prices for whatever they buy must go up. It also depends heavily on the elasticity of the item in the market. Some items may not be able to go up in price if there's an acceptable alternative that can maintain a more competitive price. Or there may be some other reason as to a product's elasticity.

There are lots of exceptions to the general rules that people often quote that make economics a far messier subject than libertarians would like to admit.

I was doing a simplified instructional post. If they wish to further their education I would have recommended a secondary school or an economic textbook.

Also I haven't seen this in here. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/wholesale-prices-measure-rises-9point6percent-in-november-from-a-year-ago-the-fastest-pace-on-record.html

6 months ago I pointed out that metal prices were up 10%, polypropylene was up 20% and the latest quote for PVC was up 50%. And between now and then the situation has worsened since we can only get the large PVC we need every six months now. Maybe.

My point here being that even if a place hasn't been hit with inflation and supply issues yet, it will be.

[pecunia]

I also think the increased money supply has an effect.  However, I'm not sure of the mechanism from this to the price increases.

More competition at the market. More demand. If you are bidding for a product or a service and there are more people bidding, the higher the cost.

Imagine an auction. You have the usual crowd every week and prices generally stable. Now double the crowd because people now have more money to spend. Now prices increase because people are competing for the same amount of supplies.

The example you give of more people chasing the same goods is fine with the conventional definition of supply and demand.  I have to agree.

Except - I don't see more real competition by more people.  I see price rises due to some shortages, but do we have a true increased demand for the butter and egg type products.  People are still eating as they were before.  I assume many are still working at home which would lower demand for some products and raise demand for others  You can cherry pick, but is there an overall increase in demand?

Now the part I truly don't understand about the increase in the money supply is how this extra money gets to John or Jane Doe so they have more money to spend and then are able to stimulate demand.   There may have been slight increases in wages, but I think they have been largely stagnant.  There has been some government assistance, but has it been significant enough to bump inflation.  I guess I don't seen the people being the beneficiaries of this increase in money supply.  This is what I mean when I say I don't understand the mechanism as to how this money reaches the people.

[pecunia]

Other than gasoline, do you see many prices ever come down?  The government wants some inflation.

The government does want some inflation. But to answer your question:
1. TVs
2. Computers
3. Cloud computing services
4. AR-15s

Excellent - I left myself open ended for that one.  I guess in an active economy, one can always find exceptions to a generality.

You ought to do right wing radio.  Whenever I listen to right wing radio, they cherry pick examples and stir the pot with them.

I would not have guessed AR-15 rifles are decreasing in cost.  That's a bit scary.

[Michael in ABQ]

I also think the increased money supply has an effect.  However, I'm not sure of the mechanism from this to the price increases.

More competition at the market. More demand. If you are bidding for a product or a service and there are more people bidding, the higher the cost.

Imagine an auction. You have the usual crowd every week and prices generally stable. Now double the crowd because people now have more money to spend. Now prices increase because people are competing for the same amount of supplies.

The example you give of more people chasing the same goods is fine with the conventional definition of supply and demand.  I have to agree.

Except - I don't see more real competition by more people.  I see price rises due to some shortages, but do we have a true increased demand for the butter and egg type products.  People are still eating as they were before.  I assume many are still working at home which would lower demand for some products and raise demand for others  You can cherry pick, but is there an overall increase in demand?

Now the part I truly don't understand about the increase in the money supply is how this extra money gets to John or Jane Doe so they have more money to spend and then are able to stimulate demand.   There may have been slight increases in wages, but I think they have been largely stagnant.  There has been some government assistance, but has it been significant enough to bump inflation.  I guess I don't seen the people being the beneficiaries of this increase in money supply.  This is what I mean when I say I don't understand the mechanism as to how this money reaches the people.

Inflation is increasing due to multiple factors. Higher wages are one aspect. If a burger flipper is paid $15/hour instead of $10/hour then McDonald's will raise the cost of a hamburger $0.50-$1.00 as that will allow them to maintain the same profit margin given higher costs. Those higher wages are due to a labor shortage which is partly due to the pandemic and partly due to government subsidies allowing others to leave the labor market. If you were making $1,500/month and paying $1,000/month for daycare you're effectively making $500. When all of the sudden you start getting $300/month from a child tax credit you're looking at effectively making just $200/month instead of $500/month if you stayed home instead of going to work and sending your kids to daycare. If the daycare raised their prices to $1,100/month the decision becomes even easier. A lot of people left the labor force because it's either not cost effective, or they can't get child care, or they don't want to risk getting sick, or they just retired early when they got sick of dealing with the BS and realized they had the money to stop working.

Then you have other increased costs like food. Food costs are going up because of labor shortages, higher energy prices, and higher input costs - such as fertilizer. Nitrogen-based fertilizer is primarily made from natural gas. In Europe for instance the cost of natural gas has risen from approximately $20 euros to $100-120 euros. About 80% of the cost of nitrogen-based fertilizer is from the cost of natural gas so a 5x increase in the input cost means nearly the same rise in the price of fertilizer. That means next year either crop yields will be lower (lower supply and fixed demand = higher prices) or the cost to produce the same amount of food will go up which will also mean higher prices. The dynamics are a bit different in the US, but fertilizer is a global market. So some of the fertilizer made in the US is now going to get shipped to Europe where prices are higher which means less supply in the US and therefore higher prices.

There are also higher prices due to higher shipping costs. The cost to get a shipping container from the east coast of China to the west coast of the US pre-pandemic was about $3-5k. Most of 2021 that's been $15-25k. If that container has $50k worth of goods you've effectively increased the cost of those goods to retailers by 30%+. Most retailers sell at 2-4x the cost of goods so a product that cost them $10 to manufacturer in China and get shipped to the US will sell for $20-40. If that cost goes up to $13 they're going to raise the price to $26 - $52. Maybe not immediately, but eventually everyone along the supply chain raises their price and it finally gets to the end consumer.


My household received almost $20k in "free money" since the pandemic began. With an annual household income in the high five figures that means an effective 10% increase in earnings. It's pretty obvious if you drive by an auto dealership where a lot of that money went. Between the chip shortages (lower supply) and that increased demand you get higher prices. Most people will spend all their money. When services (restaurants, live entertainment, etc.) become unavailable that money flowed into goods. The supply chain couldn't handle the increased demand and we're seeing all the second- and third-order effects now.

[PDXTabs]

You ought to do right wing radio.  Whenever I listen to right wing radio, they cherry pick examples and stir the pot with them.

If you can find a right wing radio program that wants a vehemently anti-car host host that believes in government data and wants to go hard on fighting climate change then you should let me know.

[LennStar]

I would not have guessed AR-15 rifles are decreasing in cost.  That's a bit scary.

I guess it's a pig cycle. Everyone who is leaning to guns bought one when Trump lost and a blue killing spree would threat our all lives, and of course you also have to protect yourself from those Bill Gates chippers working for the government that want to mind control you with the vaccine.

Now that everyone has one, the increased (due to raised demand) production does not find demand.

[pecunia]

You ought to do right wing radio.  Whenever I listen to right wing radio, they cherry pick examples and stir the pot with them.

If you can find a right wing radio program that wants a vehemently anti-car host host that believes in government data and wants to go hard on fighting climate change then you should let me know.

They might believe in that stuff but they would be smart enough to talk about other subjects.  They cherry pick the topics.

[PDXTabs]

I would not have guessed AR-15 rifles are decreasing in cost.  That's a bit scary.

I guess it's a pig cycle. Everyone who is leaning to guns bought one when Trump lost and a blue killing spree would threat our all lives, and of course you also have to protect yourself from those Bill Gates chippers working for the government that want to mind control you with the vaccine.

Now that everyone has one, the increased (due to raised demand) production does not find demand.

Yup, the largest run-up was during the Obama presidency with fear of a new AWB. But by "fear" I also mean investors that thought they would be grandfathered in. Pre-ban assault rifles were a good investment during the Clinton years. I have jokingly said that this was perhaps shadow economic stimulus during the recession.

[nereo]

I would not have guessed AR-15 rifles are decreasing in cost.  That's a bit scary.

I guess it's a pig cycle. Everyone who is leaning to guns bought one when Trump lost and a blue killing spree would threat our all lives, and of course you also have to protect yourself from those Bill Gates chippers working for the government that want to mind control you with the vaccine.

Now that everyone has one, the increased (due to raised demand) production does not find demand.

It’s only a good investment when you sell at a profit.
How many people who bought these firearms actually sold them later?
(Serious question - I have no idea how often these change hands, though my impression is most simply accumulate them)

Yup, the largest run-up was during the Obama presidency with fear of a new AWB. But by "fear" I also mean investors that thought they would be grandfathered in. Pre-ban assault rifles were a good investment during the Clinton years.

[PDXTabs]

It’s only a good investment when you sell at a profit.
How many people who bought these firearms actually sold them later?
(Serious question - I have no idea how often these change hands, though my impression is most simply accumulate them)

I don't know the answer to that question or where to find good data. But I did once meet someone who claimed to have put their kids through college with pre-1986 HK MP5s.

[Michael in ABQ]

In normal times an AR-15 rifle retails for $600-700. At several times in the last decade or so they've spike to over $1,000 as fears of some sort of ban came and went. I got mine during one of the low points for about $600-700 with a $100 mail in rebate (of course ammo is a whole other cost and good luck finding that at most stores). Some people might resell them later for a profit but there's not a guarantee if you buy one at a low point the price will spike again.

A legal automatic weapon manufactured prior to 1986 will run $10k+. That's for something that probably cost about $700 in 1986 (a bit more than the semi-auto version). Of course the regulations and cost of owning a legal automatic weapon puts it out of reach of all but a few collectors. Which is why there's virtually never a case of one being used in a crime. It would be like using an Lamborghini as a getaway car for robbing a convenience store. The cost/benefit analysis doesn't make a lot of sense.

The actual cost for a fully automatic M-4 today is still about the same as a semi-automatic AR-15. The military pays about $900. The only difference is a couple of small pieces of metal and engraving the side with auto next to safe and semi. But, due to regulations limiting the supply, it creates a huge markup for those older ones.

[PDXTabs]

But to my original point the Colt AR-15 debuted in 1964 with an MSRP of $189.50. CPI adjusted that's $1,704.57 in November 2021. I believe that the Colt Expanse M4 Carbine currently has an MSRP of $699.00.

[Travis]

I would not have guessed AR-15 rifles are decreasing in cost.  That's a bit scary.

I guess it's a pig cycle. Everyone who is leaning to guns bought one when Trump lost and a blue killing spree would threat our all lives, and of course you also have to protect yourself from those Bill Gates chippers working for the government that want to mind control you with the vaccine.

Now that everyone has one, the increased (due to raised demand) production does not find demand.

The CIA uses the street price of AKs to measure political stability in Africa and parts of the world where you can easily buy one. Supply has never been a problem, so demand/fear moves the price up or down.

[PDXTabs]

I would not have guessed AR-15 rifles are decreasing in cost.  That's a bit scary.

I guess it's a pig cycle. Everyone who is leaning to guns bought one when Trump lost and a blue killing spree would threat our all lives, and of course you also have to protect yourself from those Bill Gates chippers working for the government that want to mind control you with the vaccine.

Now that everyone has one, the increased (due to raised demand) production does not find demand.

The CIA uses the street price of AKs to measure political stability in Africa and parts of the world where you can easily buy one. Supply has never been a problem, so demand/fear moves the price up or down.

This is my new favorite fact. How long until we read that the CSIS uses the street price of ARs to measure political instability in the USA?

[Roland of Gilead]

Ukraine seems to be heating up more.  I have a bad feeling that most of this other stuff we are discussing in this thread is going to get sidelined in a few weeks.

Not a lot you can do about it though.  I do think our hands are tied as far as getting involved with boots on the ground.

[PDXTabs]

Not a lot you can do about it though.  I do think our hands are tied as far as getting involved with boots on the ground.

Well, Biden said no unilateral boots on the ground. So we could find an ally or we could sends tons of material support.

[Kris]

Ukraine seems to be heating up more.  I have a bad feeling that most of this other stuff we are discussing in this thread is going to get sidelined in a few weeks.

Not a lot you can do about it though.  I do think our hands are tied as far as getting involved with boots on the ground.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been inevitable for many, many months. Buckle up.

[nereo]

Ukraine seems to be heating up more.  I have a bad feeling that most of this other stuff we are discussing in this thread is going to get sidelined in a few weeks.

Not a lot you can do about it though.  I do think our hands are tied as far as getting involved with boots on the ground.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been inevitable for many, many months. Buckle up.

I was listening to one analyst discuss how the global distraction from Putin invading Ukraine might encourage China to be more aggressive towards Taiwan.  Which would certainly put us in an uncomfortable sitaution

[Roland of Gilead]

I was listening to one analyst discuss how the global distraction from Putin invading Ukraine might encourage China to be more aggressive towards Taiwan.  Which would certainly put us in an uncomfortable sitaution

It certainly might give them the feeling they have the right to Taiwan if Russia gets off with a hand slap.

[JoePublic3.14]

I was listening to one analyst discuss how the global distraction from Putin invading Ukraine might encourage China to be more aggressive towards Taiwan.  Which would certainly put us in an uncomfortable sitaution

It certainly might give them the feeling they have the right to Taiwan if Russia gets off with a hand slap.

That’s funny (and likely true.) Strip things down enough and it simply becomes 'I want one too.' It’s like international kindergarten.

[Just Joe]

So how many of these episodes happen before the USA is no longer considered a super power?

I feel like this is almost inevitable.

[PDXTabs]

So how many of these episodes happen before the USA is no longer considered a super power?

I feel like this is almost inevitable.

Well, the USSR withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989 and collapsed in 1991. So I'd say a matter of months at this point.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

So how many of these episodes happen before the USA is no longer considered a super power?

I feel like this is almost inevitable.

Well, the USSR withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989 and collapsed in 1991. So I'd say a matter of months at this point.

A super power or the super power? We'll be a super power for awhile even with these. We're already not the super power imo.