Options I can see:
1. The infection rate really is lower than these fears indicate.
2. The death rate is lower than feared.
3. Infection rate really is high, death rate really is 1-3%, but people are still incubating/spreading and the numbers we're seeing at the hospitals haven't exploded yet.
If it's #3, then the next days/week are going to get progressively bad, and then keep getting worse until the US closes down sufficiently AND enough time has passed that the current crop of infections work through the system (max incubation period + max infectious period), then it'll slowly start to get better but at that point the system is probably fucked.
Based on historical epidemics, and what's happening in Italy and other countries, I'm guessing it's #3.
I'm betting on #3 too.
Oh absolutely, people are infected and spreading and are spreading it. That hasn’t hit hospitals yet let overloaded hospitals. But it will.
In the “people are stupid“ column, we are squabbling in my community garden group about holding our annual meeting this coming Sunday. This is a meeting and a food event where we are crowded into a small space sitting shoulder to shoulder, hunched over food on our laps and breathing on everyone and everything including the carrots going into our mouth. Holy infection rate, batman!
One of the consistently self-centered people in the group has the sadz because he
“HateS to see a virus destroy our sense of community.“ When the physician in our group recommended we cancel and stated she will not attend, he responded we should be sure to practice good hygiene, But hole the event because he wants to.
This is a time for every citizen to take full responsibility for community health.
I see hypocrisy in the extreme with people who want what they want, and when asked to disrupt a tiny way their little lives for the sake of community health, they refuse. These are the same people who often and loudly malign anti-VAXers. I see this as an intellectual disconnect, but I also understand that the average healthy American still is not getting the potential threat of this virus. My God when Disney closes you would think that would signal hell has frozen over but I guess not.