The electoral map is shaping up. I'm
still predicting an easy Clinton victory.
Generally speaking, most states will vote in a predictable red/blue pattern. The Republicans will carry most of the south (191 votes), the Democrats will carry most of the coasts (237 votes). In between are nine battle ground states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Together they total 110 electoral votes.
To reach the required 270 votes for the Presidency, they will fight for those last 110 votes.
Clinton needs to find 33 more votes out of those 110. If she wins Florida's 29 votes, then winning ANY other state on the battleground list clinches the election for her. Basically, Florida is a must-win for Trump.
If Clinton loses Florida but wins Ohio's 18, she can still clinch it with just North Carolina or two of the remaining 7 battleground states, say Colorado and Iowa or Virginia and New Hampshire. Basically, Ohio is also a must-win for Trump.
So what happens if Trump wins both Ohio AND Florida on election day? Suddenly Clinton has a race on her hands. In that case, she has to either win Virginia's 13 votes and get a little lucky elsewhere, or lose FL/OH/VA but take all the rest (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin).
Of the nine battle ground states, only one (North Carolina in 2012) has voted Republican in the past two election cycles.
edit: Clinton is currently leading Trump by 5% in
Florida, 3.5% in
Ohio, and 13% in
Virginia. Trump has to turn all three of those around to have any reasonable chance of being President.