Author Topic: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate  (Read 738702 times)

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1050 on: March 07, 2016, 01:05:22 PM »
we could wager bragging rights, I'm saying Rubio will end up with more delegates than Cruz

You could wager an "X amount of time" forum ban.  ;)

I should report you to yourself!

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1051 on: March 07, 2016, 01:05:32 PM »

Practically speaking, he can hope for more than a VP slot at a brokered convention, he can hope for a president spot. Rubio is establishment, the delegates are mostly establishment,


I agree with this.

Quote
in a brokered convention with Trump not getting the majority, Rubio will likely snag it.

But not this.  A brokered convention does have established rules of order, many of which are beyond the power of the national convention to change, such as the individual state's rules about how many votes their delegates are locked into the state's results.  As I see it, a brokered convention does not favor Rubio for president, it favors Cruz.  Mostly because Cruz has more delegates at the moment, and therefore can bargain from a greater position of strength.  Cruz is not an establishment candidate, and the establishment knows that, and might be as likely to endorse Trump in exchange for VP himself; such an official endorsement implies a deal, and sort-of shifts the obligations of Cruz's delegates towards his endorsement.  If Rubio were to win Florida, and overtake Cruz in the absolute number of delegates, my perspective would change accordingly.  At the moment, however, I don't consider that likely.  If Cruz (as an anti-establishment candidate) were to drop out now, the vast majority of his 'anti-establishment' voter base would either vote for Trump or not at all, but not for Rubio.  Advantage Trump.

Quote

The primaries thus far have been mainly not favoring Rubio, he'll do much better in north states and eastern states.

He might, and that might force me to reconsider my predictions, but I don't think that he will do better enough to change the trajectory of this process.
I would bet a lot of money that Rubio will have waaay more delegates than Cruz at the convention, I doubt Cruz will even be in the race.
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination
according to this Rubio has better odds than Cruz too

This wouldn't be the first wager I've made this season, what would you like to wager?
we could wager bragging rights, I'm saying Rubio will end up with more delegates than Cruz

Bragging rights, it is then.  I'll be happy to take Cruz for the higher delegate count leading into the Republican national convention.
Sounds good, I'm a little worried after those March 5th results and that last debate, but I still think Rubio will take more delegates

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1052 on: March 07, 2016, 01:32:15 PM »

we could wager bragging rights, I'm saying Rubio will end up with more delegates than Cruz

You could wager an "X amount of time" forum ban.  ;)

I should report you to yourself!

Oh?  Which forum rule did I break with this post?
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nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1053 on: March 07, 2016, 01:59:35 PM »
She probably won't ruin America, but will probably bring us closer to the brink

More so than Trump?  Or even Cruz/Rubio?  If anything, I think Clinton is the slow road to ruin instead of the Donald Trump Expressway.
In order of preference for the 4 mentioned, I'd say I prefer Rubio, with Cruz and Clinton tying for 2nd/3rd, and Trump in last. That being said, I think all of them will bring us closer to the brink.

In terms of the issues, I see Cruz and Clinton being about as far away from one another as you can be (with the possible exception of substituting Sanders for Clinton).  So it strikes me as strange that you'd put them in a tie in terms of voting.

I share arebelspy's deep concern over the civil rights record of the last several presidents, and think that Clinton would more-or-less continue the current policies.  however, I sharply disagree that this will run our country into the dirt.  I'd expect it to continue to operate more or less as it has been - which is fairly good for most and very poorly for a few.
OTOH Trump  could severely derail things should he even attempt to 'build a wall... ban Muslisms... loosen the libel laws' etc.
In other words, Clinton appears to think our current balance of civil-rights abuses to national security is about right.  Trump wants to shift things where we'll have even fewer civil rights all in the name of 'security' or 'making America great again'.

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1054 on: March 07, 2016, 02:05:27 PM »
In terms of the issues, I see Cruz and Clinton being about as far away from one another as you can be (with the possible exception of substituting Sanders for Clinton).  So it strikes me as strange that you'd put them in a tie in terms of voting.

Why? I don't claim to speak for Jeremy E., but for all we know it could be that they just happen to be equally bad (or good) in opposite ways.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1055 on: March 07, 2016, 02:11:44 PM »
In terms of the issues, I see Cruz and Clinton being about as far away from one another as you can be (with the possible exception of substituting Sanders for Clinton).  So it strikes me as strange that you'd put them in a tie in terms of voting.

Why? I don't claim to speak for Jeremy E., but for all we know it could be that they just happen to be equally bad (or good) in opposite ways.

I suppose that's an interesting way of looking at it - who would be "less bad" (or in this case "equally bad") for the country and vote accordingly.

I try to vote on the issues, so it's hard for me to reconcile the idea of anyone voting for Cruz OR Clinton.
That's all...

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1056 on: March 07, 2016, 02:22:07 PM »
In terms of the issues, I see Cruz and Clinton being about as far away from one another as you can be (with the possible exception of substituting Sanders for Clinton).  So it strikes me as strange that you'd put them in a tie in terms of voting.

Why? I don't claim to speak for Jeremy E., but for all we know it could be that they just happen to be equally bad (or good) in opposite ways.

I suppose that's an interesting way of looking at it - who would be "less bad" (or in this case "equally bad") for the country and vote accordingly.

I try to vote on the issues, so it's hard for me to reconcile the idea of anyone voting for Cruz OR Clinton.
That's all...
Yep, I think they are equally bad, but not that they have equal policies. There are a lot of things I hate about both of them, some of them being things they have in common, some being things they are opposites on.

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1057 on: March 07, 2016, 02:29:06 PM »

I share arebelspy's deep concern over the civil rights record of the last several presidents, and think that Clinton would more-or-less continue the current policies.  however, I sharply disagree that this will run our country into the dirt. 

This makes it sound like I said they'll drive the country into the dirt, when in fact it was another poster that said that, and I said the opposite: that statement was hyperbole.
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nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1058 on: March 07, 2016, 02:32:25 PM »

I share arebelspy's deep concern over the civil rights record of the last several presidents, and think that Clinton would more-or-less continue the current policies.  however, I sharply disagree that this will run our country into the dirt. 

This makes it sound like I said they'll drive the country into the dirt, when in fact it was another poster that said that, and I said the opposite: that statement was hyperbole.

yeah... sorry... I didn't word that well. 
Maybe I'll just stop trying to agree or disagree with people and say what I think.  Which is:
I think it's hyperbole to say that Clinton will run our country into the dirt. I expect with her we'll continue with the same basic policies we've been having and with similar results (both good and bad).

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1059 on: March 07, 2016, 02:50:46 PM »

we could wager bragging rights, I'm saying Rubio will end up with more delegates than Cruz

You could wager an "X amount of time" forum ban.  ;)

I should report you to yourself!

Oh?  Which forum rule did I break with this post?

Rule?  Since when does there need to be a rule?  It's just a button on the right of the screen.

brooklynguy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1060 on: March 07, 2016, 02:51:52 PM »
I haven't seen Joshua Kennon's latest post (regarding Sanders, my favorite candidate) mentioned yet in the forum.  Kennon dove into the weeds of Bernie's tax and economic proposals and rendered an absolutely scathing verdict (but, as usual with Kennon's posts, it doesn't lend itself to easy summary and is worth reading in its entirety).

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1061 on: March 07, 2016, 02:54:39 PM »

I share arebelspy's deep concern over the civil rights record of the last several presidents, and think that Clinton would more-or-less continue the current policies

I think that this is pretty much the primary reason to oppose her.  While she wouldn't drive us into the dirt, we certainly would continue the current glide path, for which we ultimately have a date with grade level.  I couldn't honestly guess as to how Trump would be different, but just the chance alone might have a lot to do with his most loyal supporters' root motivations.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1062 on: March 07, 2016, 02:55:33 PM »
I haven't seen Joshua Kennon's latest post (regarding Sanders, my favorite candidate) mentioned yet in the forum.  Kennon dove into the weeds of Bernie's tax and economic proposals and rendered an absolutely scathing verdict (but, as usual with Kennon's posts, it doesn't lend itself to easy summary and is worth reading in its entirety).

And that is why it won't matter.

nnls

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1063 on: March 07, 2016, 03:03:29 PM »
Thanks LeRainDrop, so does this mean that their will be four names on your ballot paper for President?Who ever each party nominates?

It all seems to work very different in Australia and I am still kinda struggling to get why super Tuesday was even such a big deal.

Sorry, I edited to add this part while you were already reading my original response:  When it comes to presidential voting, all candidates who qualify will be listed on the ballot -- but note that ballot qualification is under the state's rules, so different states may see slightly different lists of presidential candidates (basically, some third parties exist in some states but not in other states).  Typically, you will see the Democrat, the Republican, possibly an Independent, and probably some out of the Libertarian, Green, or another third party.

Super Tuesday was a "big deal" because several states had their primary elections where each party votes among its own candidates to decide who will be the single candidate for that party in the general election in November.  Whenever a state has its primary election (or in some cases, its caucus), then the number of that state's delegates get assigned (to sort of simplify a complicated process that most of us probably don't 100% understand, including me).  So, on Super Tuesday, many of those delegates got assigned to the candidates.  For example, the entire country of the Republican Party has 2,472 delegates.  On Super Tuesday, 11 of our 50 states voted, and those 11 states had 600 delegates between them.  In short, Super Tuesday was big for Republicans because on that day, 600 out of the 2,472 delegates were decided.

ok thanks, still confusing but a bit more clear now.

And when you vote for president and for your senators do you just vote for one person, or is it like in Australia where you vote in preference order, so from say 1-4 ?

No, we call this 'instant run-off voting' and it would be a great improvement, but that can't happen with a presidential election without an amendment to the US Constitution.  Our senators have nothing to do with the electoral process.

You vote for senators though, every time there is about a third who are up? In Australia we can have heaps of people nominating for state senator, I think last time I had to fill in over 50 boxes from 1 to 50 to get my preferences in.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1064 on: March 07, 2016, 03:19:33 PM »


You vote for senators though, every time there is about a third who are up?

We do now, we didn't always.  Originally, the US Senate was similar to the House of Lords in Britain.  Sort-of, anyway.  The position of state senator was a political appointment, and the senator represented the state legistlature & the state (as in government) interests; while the House of Representatives has always been directly elected to represent the people.  I think we lost some of our republic when we adopted the 17th amendment.  A lot of generally bad things occurred in that same year.

Anyway, we only have one candidate from each party on the ballot in this case as well; the real democracy occurs in the primaries.  And that is debatable, since the party establishment has an oversized influence upon who actually becomes the nominee, particularly regarding any office other than POTUS.

Malaysia41

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1065 on: March 07, 2016, 03:20:01 PM »
I don't see Hillary and Drumpf as equally bad. Drumpf is way worse.

@Sol - I can tell you that the reason my mother hates Hillary goes back to her days as first lady. She'd be in the news talking about healthcare reform and my mom would seethe, "I didn't elect HER!". The vitriol was something I'd never seen from my mom before. I don't share her anger. I don't support HRC - for similar reasons AREBELSPY pointed out. But I don't hate her.

I do fear that if HRC is the nominee, people like my mom will vote Drumpf.  Or, maybe she'll not vote. I can handle Hillary in the white house, but not Drumpf. If he wins, I'm moving out of the countr... oh, wait. Already did that.

At this point it seems that HRC will get the nomination. Who do you think she'll choose for VP? Would she possibly choose Bernie?

nnls

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1066 on: March 07, 2016, 03:21:51 PM »


You vote for senators though, every time there is about a third who are up?

We do now, we didn't always.  Originally, the US Senate was similar to the House of Lords in Britain.  Sort-of, anyway.  The position of state senator was a political appointment, and the senator represented the state legistlature & the state (as in government) interests; while the House of Representatives has always been directly elected to represent the people.  I think we lost some of our republic when we adopted the 17th amendment.  A lot of generally bad things occurred in that same year.

Anyway, we only have one candidate from each party on the ballot in this case as well; the real democracy occurs in the primaries.  And that is debatable, since the party establishment has an oversized influence upon who actually becomes the nominee, particularly regarding any office other than POTUS.

oh ok, I see. So besides voting for the president you also vote for people who is in the house of representatives. So there would be three ballot papers. Senators, house of reps, President?

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1067 on: March 07, 2016, 03:23:58 PM »
I haven't seen Joshua Kennon's latest post (regarding Sanders, my favorite candidate) mentioned yet in the forum.  Kennon dove into the weeds of Bernie's tax and economic proposals and rendered an absolutely scathing verdict (but, as usual with Kennon's posts, it doesn't lend itself to easy summary and is worth reading in its entirety).

Yeah, that was a good post, even if it made me sad.  :D
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MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1068 on: March 07, 2016, 03:26:19 PM »


You vote for senators though, every time there is about a third who are up?

We do now, we didn't always.  Originally, the US Senate was similar to the House of Lords in Britain.  Sort-of, anyway.  The position of state senator was a political appointment, and the senator represented the state legistlature & the state (as in government) interests; while the House of Representatives has always been directly elected to represent the people.  I think we lost some of our republic when we adopted the 17th amendment.  A lot of generally bad things occurred in that same year.

Anyway, we only have one candidate from each party on the ballot in this case as well; the real democracy occurs in the primaries.  And that is debatable, since the party establishment has an oversized influence upon who actually becomes the nominee, particularly regarding any office other than POTUS.

oh ok, I see. So besides voting for the president you also vote for people who is in the house of representatives. So there would be three ballot papers. Senators, house of reps, President?

No, it's usually all on one page, front & back.  They list the different offices with the most powerful on the top; president, senator, representative; then state offices in like manner; then finally local offices & court judges on the back.  If there is paper at all, sometimes it's a touchscreen, which I don't trust a bit.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1069 on: March 07, 2016, 03:28:25 PM »
I don't see Hillary and Drumpf as equally bad. Drumpf is way worse.


Sure, but your's isn't the only viewpoint.  It's a pity that you already left, because Trump has personally offered to pay for a one way plane ticket for some.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1070 on: March 07, 2016, 03:42:18 PM »

I share arebelspy's deep concern over the civil rights record of the last several presidents, and think that Clinton would more-or-less continue the current policies

I think that this is pretty much the primary reason to oppose her.  While she wouldn't drive us into the dirt, we certainly would continue the current glide path, for which we ultimately have a date with grade level.  I couldn't honestly guess as to how Trump would be different, but just the chance alone might have a lot to do with his most loyal supporters' root motivations.

See... that's the core of why I don't fear a Hillary presidency the way I do Trump - I don't believe that our current glide path will "ultimately have a date with grade level" to use your analogy (are you a pilot??).
I think as a country we're flying along ok.  We could be doing better, but we aren't destined for a crash either.  Most macro-economic indicators look decent, and really good compared to much of the world. 
I'm receptive to change, but not one lead by the xenophobic meanderings of Trump.

nnls

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1071 on: March 07, 2016, 03:43:40 PM »


You vote for senators though, every time there is about a third who are up?

We do now, we didn't always.  Originally, the US Senate was similar to the House of Lords in Britain.  Sort-of, anyway.  The position of state senator was a political appointment, and the senator represented the state legistlature & the state (as in government) interests; while the House of Representatives has always been directly elected to represent the people.  I think we lost some of our republic when we adopted the 17th amendment.  A lot of generally bad things occurred in that same year.

Anyway, we only have one candidate from each party on the ballot in this case as well; the real democracy occurs in the primaries.  And that is debatable, since the party establishment has an oversized influence upon who actually becomes the nominee, particularly regarding any office other than POTUS.

oh ok, I see. So besides voting for the president you also vote for people who is in the house of representatives. So there would be three ballot papers. Senators, house of reps, President?

No, it's usually all on one page, front & back.  They list the different offices with the most powerful on the top; president, senator, representative; then state offices in like manner; then finally local offices & court judges on the back.  If there is paper at all, sometimes it's a touchscreen, which I don't trust a bit.

ok thanks.

Malaysia41

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1072 on: March 07, 2016, 04:04:25 PM »
I haven't seen Joshua Kennon's latest post (regarding Sanders, my favorite candidate) mentioned yet in the forum.  Kennon dove into the weeds of Bernie's tax and economic proposals and rendered an absolutely scathing verdict (but, as usual with Kennon's posts, it doesn't lend itself to easy summary and is worth reading in its entirety).

Yeah, that was a good post, even if it made me sad.  :D

:( .  I was aware of many of BS's tax proposals - but some of them were new to me. Yeah, not good. Thanks for the link brooklynguy.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1073 on: March 07, 2016, 04:06:36 PM »
I haven't seen Joshua Kennon's latest post (regarding Sanders, my favorite candidate) mentioned yet in the forum.  Kennon dove into the weeds of Bernie's tax and economic proposals and rendered an absolutely scathing verdict (but, as usual with Kennon's posts, it doesn't lend itself to easy summary and is worth reading in its entirety).

Good article, thanks.  Kennon's own summary: "When it comes to economic and tax policy, Bernie Sanders is bat shit crazy."  And yes, reading the whole thing is worthwhile.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1074 on: March 07, 2016, 04:16:42 PM »

I share arebelspy's deep concern over the civil rights record of the last several presidents, and think that Clinton would more-or-less continue the current policies

I think that this is pretty much the primary reason to oppose her.  While she wouldn't drive us into the dirt, we certainly would continue the current glide path, for which we ultimately have a date with grade level.  I couldn't honestly guess as to how Trump would be different, but just the chance alone might have a lot to do with his most loyal supporters' root motivations.

See... that's the core of why I don't fear a Hillary presidency the way I do Trump - I don't believe that our current glide path will "ultimately have a date with grade level" to use your analogy (are you a pilot??).
I think as a country we're flying along ok.  We could be doing better, but we aren't destined for a crash either.  Most macro-economic indicators look decent, and really good compared to much of the world. 
I'm receptive to change, but not one lead by the xenophobic meanderings of Trump.
We have the 10th highest debt to GDP ratio of the 150 or so listed here,
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1075 on: March 07, 2016, 04:22:30 PM »
My political sense is tingling...


Trump's unorthodox message and populist appeal, the Democrats warn, could erode their hold on working-class support and jeopardize their chances in a year when voter disenchantment with Washington is being felt nationwide.

“We are seeing something this election cycle I’ve never seen before to this degree,” said board Chairman Mark Munroe, who’s also the county Republican chairman. “Every day I take phone calls or get voice messages from people saying they’ve been Democrats all their life and they’ve had it. They want to vote for Donald Trump. I’m surprised at the volume of inquiries we’re getting. It’s remarkable.”


Malaysia41

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1076 on: March 07, 2016, 04:22:48 PM »
I haven't seen Joshua Kennon's latest post (regarding Sanders, my favorite candidate) mentioned yet in the forum.  Kennon dove into the weeds of Bernie's tax and economic proposals and rendered an absolutely scathing verdict (but, as usual with Kennon's posts, it doesn't lend itself to easy summary and is worth reading in its entirety).

Good article, thanks.  Kennon's own summary: "When it comes to economic and tax policy, Bernie Sanders is bat shit crazy."  And yes, reading the whole thing is worthwhile.

I liked his mention of Elizabeth Warren. While baffled how Bernie's proposals got out of committee, he imagined that Ms. Warren's would align with the same goals, but would be rooted in economic reality.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1077 on: March 07, 2016, 04:43:01 PM »

I share arebelspy's deep concern over the civil rights record of the last several presidents, and think that Clinton would more-or-less continue the current policies

I think that this is pretty much the primary reason to oppose her.  While she wouldn't drive us into the dirt, we certainly would continue the current glide path, for which we ultimately have a date with grade level.  I couldn't honestly guess as to how Trump would be different, but just the chance alone might have a lot to do with his most loyal supporters' root motivations.

See... that's the core of why I don't fear a Hillary presidency the way I do Trump - I don't believe that our current glide path will "ultimately have a date with grade level" to use your analogy (are you a pilot??).
Not personally, as I'm medically ineligible.  But this is my Great-Aunt...

http://www.wave3.com/story/10255730/87-year-old-pilot-receives-faa-for-64-years-of-flying

She is, literally, a local hero in the flying world.  She only gave up her instructor's license a few years ago.  If not for my medical issues, I would have been flying in high school.
Quote
I think as a country we're flying along ok.  We could be doing better, but we aren't destined for a crash either.  Most macro-economic indicators look decent, and really good compared to much of the world. 
I'm receptive to change, but not one lead by the xenophobic meanderings of Trump.

I'm betting that you are going to get the chance to find out if your fear of a Trump presidency is justified, and that Mrs. Its-My-Turn isn't going to get her turn to fly the plane.

LeRainDrop

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1078 on: March 07, 2016, 06:45:32 PM »
But this is my Great-Aunt...

http://www.wave3.com/story/10255730/87-year-old-pilot-receives-faa-for-64-years-of-flying

She is, literally, a local hero in the flying world.  She only gave up her instructor's license a few years ago.

Kudos to Great-Aunt Jane Ralston!  That's pretty awesome.  I admire my great-aunt tremendously, too.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1079 on: March 07, 2016, 07:02:22 PM »
I just read some current analysis about Trump's recent call for Rubio to quit.  The basic idea was that it's reverse psychology, because it's not in Trump's own interest for Rubio to quit before Florida, since he currently splits the anyone-but-Trump vote with Cruz.  He said it to make Rubio mad, and make him want to stay in it just a bit longer.

The general is going to be fun to watch.  I wonder if Trump will insist on letting a couple third party nominees into the debates, just to keep Hillary guessing.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1080 on: March 07, 2016, 07:04:42 PM »
But this is my Great-Aunt...

http://www.wave3.com/story/10255730/87-year-old-pilot-receives-faa-for-64-years-of-flying

She is, literally, a local hero in the flying world.  She only gave up her instructor's license a few years ago.

Kudos to Great-Aunt Jane Ralston!  That's pretty awesome.  I admire my great-aunt tremendously, too.

She's still alive, BTW.  93 until April.  Still has all her mental faculties, but someone really needs to tell her it's time to give up on natural teeth.  And to sell the minivan and start using Uber like everyone else.

LeRainDrop

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1081 on: March 07, 2016, 10:14:42 PM »
I haven't seen Joshua Kennon's latest post (regarding Sanders, my favorite candidate) mentioned yet in the forum.  Kennon dove into the weeds of Bernie's tax and economic proposals and rendered an absolutely scathing verdict (but, as usual with Kennon's posts, it doesn't lend itself to easy summary and is worth reading in its entirety).

Yeah, that was a good post, even if it made me sad.  :D

:( .  I was aware of many of BS's tax proposals - but some of them were new to me. Yeah, not good. Thanks for the link brooklynguy.

Good article, thanks.  Kennon's own summary: "When it comes to economic and tax policy, Bernie Sanders is bat shit crazy."  And yes, reading the whole thing is worthwhile.

Wow, Joshua Kennon's article was a long, but excellent, read.  Somehow I hadn't heard of this guy until recently, when Arebelspy posted a link to Kennon's piece following Scalia's passing.  I've really appreciated both of his articles that I've read, so you two -- ARS and brooklynguy -- may have turned me into a new follower of his blog :-)

electriceagle

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1082 on: March 07, 2016, 10:27:36 PM »
Voting Hilary or Trump is like voting for who is the least likely to burry the US into the ground instead who will be the better choice as a president.
Agreed, it's like that South Park episode, should you even vote if the choices are a douche and a turd sandwich?

If Trump is the republican nominee, it'll be more like walking into a supermarket and finding only a bag of stale saltine crackers and a turd sandwich.

You want to storm out of the store and go elsewhere, but it can take years to get buying rights in other stores, and your store makes it very difficult for you to put money in the cash register at other establishments.

You know that some people are determined to buy the turd sandwich so that they can throw it at the store manager, but you also know that doing this will force everyone to eat turd sandwiches, and could accelerate the rate at which the store -- once a supermarket -- turns into an overpriced gas station convenience store.

So you buy the bag of stale saltine crackers.

protostache

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1083 on: March 08, 2016, 06:48:07 AM »
I haven't seen Joshua Kennon's latest post (regarding Sanders, my favorite candidate) mentioned yet in the forum.  Kennon dove into the weeds of Bernie's tax and economic proposals and rendered an absolutely scathing verdict (but, as usual with Kennon's posts, it doesn't lend itself to easy summary and is worth reading in its entirety).

Yeah, that was a good post, even if it made me sad.  :D

:( .  I was aware of many of BS's tax proposals - but some of them were new to me. Yeah, not good. Thanks for the link brooklynguy.

Good article, thanks.  Kennon's own summary: "When it comes to economic and tax policy, Bernie Sanders is bat shit crazy."  And yes, reading the whole thing is worthwhile.

Wow, Joshua Kennon's article was a long, but excellent, read.  Somehow I hadn't heard of this guy until recently, when Arebelspy posted a link to Kennon's piece following Scalia's passing.  I've really appreciated both of his articles that I've read, so you two -- ARS and brooklynguy -- may have turned me into a new follower of his blog :-)

Dropped into this thread looking for a Kennon mention and was not disappointed. He's excellent. Over Christmas I read through every non-personal post on the blog and learned an awful lot about a worldview I hadn't known much about before, that of the semi-professonal private investor. Almost every post is thought provoking and deeply analytical, and even when I disagreed with him he made me think strongly about why that was.

Edit to add: if you embark on a similar project make sure to read the comments. The regular commenters (including some members of this forum, I believe) are excellent and some of Kennon's best material is buried in comment responses.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2016, 06:59:09 AM by protostache »

cerat0n1a

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1084 on: March 08, 2016, 10:44:03 AM »
Another thumbs up for the Kennon piece. From this side of the Atlantic, most of US politics looks batshit crazy, but I find myself in almost complete agreement with everything he says. I do try to fight the tendency to read only stuff that fits existing beliefs, but interesting nonetheless.

On the particular issue of exempting farmland from Estate Taxes. We do exactly that with inheritance taxes here in Britain, and it has caused exactly the consequences that Kennon outlines. Farmland and forestry land has become a tax shelter more than a productive asset. A common retirement route for bankers and lawyers is to buy a large farm. Your name is on the title, but all the actual farming is sub-contracted. Agricultural land prices have shot up and real family farmers are selling up to take advantage. Not rocket science to look at what the effect of your proposed policies has been elsewhere.

sol

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1085 on: March 08, 2016, 11:24:31 AM »
Joshua has visited this forum a number of times, and I'd be surprised if he hasn't already read this thread.  He seems pretty astute about googling his own name and links to his site, so he usually chimes in here when we send enough traffic his way.

Like all bloggers, his image and persona are carefully cultivated (and therefore somewhat suspect.)  He responds to attacks both personal and ideological, as any profitable online persona should.

Personally, I find his site a fascinating mixture of carefully thought out positions and huge gaping blind spots.   

In this particular case, the article's focus on increased tax rates seems to miss the whole point of Bernie's tax plan, which is to support the exact ideals Joshua lays out at the top of his post, by taxing people who have disproportionately benefited from our economic system in order to provide greater opportunity for people who are currently repressed by it, for example by providing free health care and college education.  If Americans didn't have to pay for those things, think of how much free money they would suddenly have to pay increased taxes. 

Bernie argues that total costs for most people will go down under his plan, while protecting the poorest and most vulnerable segments of the population.  Yes, tax rates would go up, but your family and the nation as a whole would be financially better off as a result. Or so says Bernie Sanders, anyway, and that key perspective seems to be missing from Joshua's analysis.  Like all wealthy members of the investor class, he cares most about protecting his own privileged position in the current economic hierarchy.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1086 on: March 08, 2016, 12:07:43 PM »

On the particular issue of exempting farmland from Estate Taxes. We do exactly that with inheritance taxes here in Britain, and it has caused exactly the consequences that Kennon outlines. Farmland and forestry land has become a tax shelter more than a productive asset. A common retirement route for bankers and lawyers is to buy a large farm. Your name is on the title, but all the actual farming is sub-contracted. Agricultural land prices have shot up and real family farmers are selling up to take advantage. Not rocket science to look at what the effect of your proposed policies has been elsewhere.

I read this, and it sounds to me like Britain is already half way back to tenant farming.  Large scale agriculture is a professional trade requiring professional knowledge, but this defeats the purpose of property taxes, doesn't it?  Isn't the point to discourage the extremely wealthy from accumulating vast amounts of property; thus competing with middle class, independent farmers for the productive land?

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1087 on: March 08, 2016, 12:34:52 PM »
Joshua has visited this forum a number of times, and I'd be surprised if he hasn't already read this thread.  He seems pretty astute about googling his own name and links to his site, so he usually chimes in here when we send enough traffic his way.

Like all bloggers, his image and persona are carefully cultivated (and therefore somewhat suspect.)  He responds to attacks both personal and ideological, as any profitable online persona should.

Personally, I find his site a fascinating mixture of carefully thought out positions and huge gaping blind spots.   

In this particular case, the article's focus on increased tax rates seems to miss the whole point of Bernie's tax plan, which is to support the exact ideals Joshua lays out at the top of his post, by taxing people who have disproportionately benefited from our economic system in order to provide greater opportunity for people who are currently repressed by it, for example by providing free health care and college education.  If Americans didn't have to pay for those things, think of how much free money they would suddenly have to pay increased taxes. 

Bernie argues that total costs for most people will go down under his plan, while protecting the poorest and most vulnerable segments of the population.  Yes, tax rates would go up, but your family and the nation as a whole would be financially better off as a result. Or so says Bernie Sanders, anyway, and that key perspective seems to be missing from Joshua's analysis.  Like all wealthy members of the investor class, he cares most about protecting his own privileged position in the current economic hierarchy.

I agree. I note several serious problems with Joshua's analysis:

  • He talks about how much he hates regressive taxes (such as the payroll tax), then complains that Sanders wants to remove the cap on it (which would make it less regressive!)
  • He complains that Sanders' plan would add new income tax brackets for ultra-high incomes (which, again, would make income taxes even more progressive)
  • He talks about how he supports equality of opportunity and how it's good to prevent aristocracies, but then complains that Sanders wants to increase the taxes on gifts and inheritances (i.e., the primary tools for the prevention of aristocracies)

Granted, Joshua has a point about things like corporate taxation and such, but his over-the-top conclusion severely overstates his case. All he's really doing is over exaggerating the importance of certain details in order to convince us that the entire plan is fatally flawed, but really, it's just those details that are the problem. And then he nonsensically talks about how "it's astonishing that this ever left committee," neglecting the fact that we're considering an election platform, not a bill before Congress. He even goes on to talk about how a plan with similar goals put together by Elizabeth Warren would be infinitely better, disregarding the fact that, if Sanders were elected, Warren is probably exactly who he'd ask to refine and write legislation to implement the plan!

cerat0n1a

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1088 on: March 08, 2016, 12:51:50 PM »
I read this, and it sounds to me like Britain is already half way back to tenant farming.  Large scale agriculture is a professional trade requiring professional knowledge, but this defeats the purpose of property taxes, doesn't it?  Isn't the point to discourage the extremely wealthy from accumulating vast amounts of property; thus competing with middle class, independent farmers for the productive land?

Yeah, made worse by the fact that Britain's property market is increasingly a home for laundered money or tax avoidance - a lot of the countryside now owned by offshore corporations. The point was exactly as per Sanders - to prevent family farms from being broken up, so that they can be inherited by the next generation, but the effect has been that rich people buy farms to escape tax. Exactly the same thing has happened with forestry land, too. Most forestry land trading is connected to tax avoidance.

Of course, this all comes about because the rich naturally want to ensure that they can pass on large inheritances without any tax, which obviously moves us away from any kind of meritocracy and towards a hereditary rentier class/aristocracy.  Turns out to be really hard to frame tax legislation in ways that the really rich can't get round.

brooklynguy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1089 on: March 08, 2016, 12:56:32 PM »
but his over-the-top conclusion severely overstates his case. All he's really doing is over exaggerating the importance of certain details in order to convince us that the entire plan is fatally flawed, but really, it's just those details that are the problem.

This was my take as well.  I agreed with virtually all of Kennon's abstract analysis at the top of the post, but all of his talk about second and third order effects and self-defeating policies was a bit of a red herring given that it only applied to a few specific details of Bernie's proposals while his primary, overarching complaint is simply that the proposed tax rates are just too high.  He does say that "even accounting for the supposed free college and health care that Sanders is promising his voters, the discretionary purchasing power of nearly every family in this country, rich and poor alike, would be lowered, in some cases by double-digit percentages," but provides nothing in his detailed analysis to support this claim, the lion's share of which was an itemized breakdown of how much additional money we're going to have to fork over to Uncle Sam without any detailed consideration of the societal benefits we would (or wouldn't) reap as a result.  Kennon made some excellent points, but, in my view, he failed to justify his bold conclusion that Bernie's proposals are "so unbelievably, catastrophically bad that [Kennon] cannot imagine anyone but the economic illiterate or someone so deeply vested in political ideology that they’ve lost all semblance of objectivity supporting this."

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1090 on: March 08, 2016, 01:16:48 PM »
  Turns out to be really hard to frame tax legislation in ways that the really rich can't get round.

This is the core of it.  The wealthy are usually rich for a reason, and it's not because they are just stupid & lucky.  Usually.  This is also the same reason I don't consider plans like Bernie's to be credible.  That man isn't even smart enough to make a living outside of government service, and you will never beat the wealthy at money coming at them straight on.

[MOD EDIT: Saying that people are stupid who work in gov't violates Forum Rules.  Please attack arguments, not people.]
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 05:52:03 AM by FrugalToque »


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MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1093 on: March 08, 2016, 05:12:31 PM »
Called it!

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/08/poll-mitt-romney-helped-donald-trump-more-voters-now-more-likely-to-support-the-billionaire/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
u

I would have thought trump's response would have repulsed them. It sure repulsed me.

Like I said, Americans love a winner, and generally discount anything the loser has to say about it.  For the time being, Trump has managed to personify the winner type to the electorate.  It's a winning strategy, so long as Hillary & Co can't adapt to the new rules.  I'm guessing that she cannot.  "Innovative" is not a word that I think anyone would apply to Hillary Clinton.

Proud Foot

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1094 on: March 09, 2016, 03:51:01 PM »
  Turns out to be really hard to frame tax legislation in ways that the really rich can't get round.

This is the core of it.  The wealthy are usually rich for a reason, and it's not because they are just stupid & lucky.  Usually.  This is also the same reason I don't consider plans like Bernie's to be credible.  That man isn't even smart enough to make a living outside of government service, and you will never beat the wealthy at money coming at them straight on.

[MOD EDIT: Saying that people are stupid who work in gov't violates Forum Rules.  Please attack arguments, not people.]

While I won't go as far to say that he isn't smart enough to make a living outside of government service I do seriously question his money management.  I'm sure he will have nice pension benefits as he has worked as an elected official since he became Mayor in 1981. So that would give less incentive save, but what has he done with the rest of the money he earned? Not sure what he made as Mayor but he has been in Congress since 1991 and I know that is a higher paying job. If he has been giving away most of his money to charities or helping individuals in need then I completely understand and can support that, otherwise it makes me question his money management.

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1095 on: March 09, 2016, 04:05:12 PM »
  Turns out to be really hard to frame tax legislation in ways that the really rich can't get round.

This is the core of it.  The wealthy are usually rich for a reason, and it's not because they are just stupid & lucky.  Usually.  This is also the same reason I don't consider plans like Bernie's to be credible.  That man isn't even smart enough to make a living outside of government service, and you will never beat the wealthy at money coming at them straight on.

[MOD EDIT: Saying that people are stupid who work in gov't violates Forum Rules.  Please attack arguments, not people.]

While I won't go as far to say that he isn't smart enough to make a living outside of government service I do seriously question his money management.  I'm sure he will have nice pension benefits as he has worked as an elected official since he became Mayor in 1981. So that would give less incentive save, but what has he done with the rest of the money he earned? Not sure what he made as Mayor but he has been in Congress since 1991 and I know that is a higher paying job. If he has been giving away most of his money to charities or helping individuals in need then I completely understand and can support that, otherwise it makes me question his money management.

Yeah, even I'm with Moonshadow on this one. Any accounting of Sanders' history shows that he was failing pretty hard at being gainfully employed until he got into politics.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1096 on: March 09, 2016, 04:27:26 PM »
  Turns out to be really hard to frame tax legislation in ways that the really rich can't get round.

This is the core of it.  The wealthy are usually rich for a reason, and it's not because they are just stupid & lucky.  Usually.  This is also the same reason I don't consider plans like Bernie's to be credible.  That man isn't even smart enough to make a living outside of government service, and you will never beat the wealthy at money coming at them straight on.

[MOD EDIT: Saying that people are stupid who work in gov't violates Forum Rules.  Please attack arguments, not people.]

While I won't go as far to say that he isn't smart enough to make a living outside of government service I do seriously question his money management.  I'm sure he will have nice pension benefits as he has worked as an elected official since he became Mayor in 1981. So that would give less incentive save, but what has he done with the rest of the money he earned? Not sure what he made as Mayor but he has been in Congress since 1991 and I know that is a higher paying job. If he has been giving away most of his money to charities or helping individuals in need then I completely understand and can support that, otherwise it makes me question his money management.

Yeah, even I'm with Moonshadow on this one. Any accounting of Sanders' history shows that he was failing pretty hard at being gainfully employed until he got into politics.

Wait, how did I violate forum rules?  Bernie Sanders isn't on this thread or this forum.  And I worked in government service, I wasn't attacking that.  I was attacking a person who has, literally, never earned any money in any other fashion.  Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience beyond government than Bernie Sanders does.

sol

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1097 on: March 09, 2016, 04:36:42 PM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1098 on: March 09, 2016, 05:11:43 PM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Being a government employee is work. Being an elected official... perhaps less so. You don't "have" to do anything at all; it mainly depends on your own initiative and how much you care about getting re-elected.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1099 on: March 09, 2016, 05:28:50 PM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Being a government employee is work. Being an elected official... perhaps less so. You don't "have" to do anything at all; it mainly depends on your own initiative and how much you care about getting re-elected.

This.  Sol, try not to go out of your own way to be offended.