Author Topic: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation  (Read 347678 times)

HPstache

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2050 on: January 10, 2024, 04:14:47 PM »
It appears the tweet was correct afterall... just went out at the wrong time.  Bitcoin ETFs coming up soon

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2051 on: January 10, 2024, 04:26:14 PM »
It appears the tweet was correct afterall... just went out at the wrong time.  Bitcoin ETFs coming up soon

....but but... they said they got hacked an unauthorized post!?

Well, now their post from October makes them look REALLY fucking dumb and incompetent.


Rosy

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2052 on: January 10, 2024, 06:26:25 PM »
Well, well - bitcoin has survived it all.
To be traded on Thursday by Blackrock, (Goldman Sachs in the mix too) and all the other 10 financial institutions running the new show.
Never a dull day in the crypto world but this was more dramatic than anyone expected.

Is there a line waiting to buy into all eleven ETF's and what will happen to the price of BTC?
We'll see what happens between now and the halving in April. 

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2053 on: January 11, 2024, 03:37:09 PM »
The spike up to 48,700 today was what I'm expecting to be the top before this starts dropping off rather quickly. One would maybe suppose a lot more action today on something so "long awaited", but I think there's a lot of people who were trying to NOT get screwed and see what happened before entering a buying frenzy.

And....... It seems that nothing much happened at all. It looks like support might have moved up $1,000 but can't really confirm that yet. In all honesty and IMHO I think tomorrow and the weekend will tell-all on what's going to happen over the next few weeks. It's either going way up or way down but I can't see it holding here.

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

I'm going to say my bet is still on a big drop but with all the unexpected drama I won't be entering a short position unless I get the signs I'm looking for. This small spike we see saw today (and the other day during fake news) were about the right size of the spike(s) I was expecting to happen but timing was clearly off.

If tomorrows high is lower than today's high, I expect it to begin to drop as early as market close tomorrow. This is nothing like I'm used to playing with but I do have the skill to at least attempt to get it right and if it does drop I'll definitely be making some good cash on that. Honestly it's proving much more difficult than I expected, and, I already expected extreme difficulty with getting a proper entry. The whole SEC thing really threw a wrench in things - there's a lot of controversy around that, and it's my opinion that it single-handedly ruined the natural course of what would have occurred today... AS far as feelings go, I don't have any on either side. I planned to short, and I still plan to short, but I'm seeing it more and more difficult to plan. If it moons overnight or hits the floor tomorrow, I don't even know if I'll really be able to identify a decent catalyst without it being a "best guess".

Anyway I'll still share my perspective on what exactly I'm watching, had been watching, am/was thinking, and what made me want (and expect to be able) to confidently short this with full detail. But I'm going to wait until Monday evening (as I smentioned yesterday).

It's really mind-bending. This is why I don't mess with crypto in the first place - the cryptosphere is shady enough as it is. Drag the SEC and a dozen big market players into the mix and it's 50-fold worse. It's looking like this a total shit-show. I don't want to see anyone lose their money so whatever your personal plans are, stick to them and please don't be swayed by what I'm saying here - I simply promised to share my thoughts and my strategy behind trying to short this thing.

I have the strong feeling that if there isn't serious upward movement in the next 24 hours, a bitcoin bloodbath will follow. I will explain why I feel/felt that way on Monday when I revisit this.




LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2054 on: January 12, 2024, 09:08:07 AM »
[snip]

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

[snip]

Bitcoin purists will always buy actual Bitcoin rather than the ETF, and will always encourage others to do the same where possible. That said, I'm pretty sure most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing - a gateway to Bitcoin for the masses.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2055 on: January 12, 2024, 10:31:44 AM »
[snip]

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

[snip]

Bitcoin purists will always buy actual Bitcoin rather than the ETF, and will always encourage others to do the same where possible. That said, I'm pretty sure most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing - a gateway to Bitcoin for the masses.

I think you're right about the first part. I think you're wrong about the second part. I think they know that the ETF would probably spark doom for BTC price overall and into the future but that's just my opinion. I don't think the masses will never hold real bitcoin and the ETFs IMO are so disconnected from crypto (and in line with normal stock market BS) that they're going to damage and dilute the purpose, need, and belief in bitcoin in the general public - even though the general public will assume they're holding actual bitcoin instead of pieces of stock.

Could go either way though. It's diving right now and I made a nice chunk already today on a couple quick shorts. We'll see what happens over the weekend.

seattlecyclone

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2056 on: January 12, 2024, 11:37:21 AM »
[snip]

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

[snip]

Bitcoin purists will always buy actual Bitcoin rather than the ETF, and will always encourage others to do the same where possible. That said, I'm pretty sure most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing - a gateway to Bitcoin for the masses.

It's a "gateway" to the masses participating in BTC's price changes for investment purposes. The story justifying BTC's value in the first place is that someday the masses will actually be personally doing blockchain transactions, right? These ETFs have nothing to do with that.

I will say that the ETF managers (with appropriate SEC oversight) are probably going to be better at managing their private keys than your average ETF investor, so I generally see this as a positive thing getting the speculators with little technical knowledge onto a safer, more centralized solution.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2057 on: January 12, 2024, 12:12:08 PM »
[snip]

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

[snip]

Bitcoin purists will always buy actual Bitcoin rather than the ETF, and will always encourage others to do the same where possible. That said, I'm pretty sure most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing - a gateway to Bitcoin for the masses.

I think you're right about the first part. I think you're wrong about the second part. I think they know that the ETF would probably spark doom for BTC price overall and into the future but that's just my opinion. I don't think the masses will never hold real bitcoin and the ETFs IMO are so disconnected from crypto (and in line with normal stock market BS) that they're going to damage and dilute the purpose, need, and belief in bitcoin in the general public - even though the general public will assume they're holding actual bitcoin instead of pieces of stock.

Well, that's your opinion but we weren't discussing your opinion. We were discussing the opinions of 'Bitcoin purists'.

Most of the vocal Bitcoiners are, and have been for some time, more positive than negative about the likely effects of Spot ETFs (which have long been inevitable in any case).

Could go either way though. It's diving right now and I made a nice chunk already today on a couple quick shorts. We'll see what happens over the weekend.

Short term price moves are of very little relevance to anything and are of very little interest to me. I'd put them roughly on a par with, say, random brags about winning trades.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2058 on: January 12, 2024, 01:22:47 PM »
[snip]

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

[snip]

Bitcoin purists will always buy actual Bitcoin rather than the ETF, and will always encourage others to do the same where possible. That said, I'm pretty sure most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing - a gateway to Bitcoin for the masses.

It's a "gateway" to the masses participating in BTC's price changes for investment purposes. The story justifying BTC's value in the first place is that someday the masses will actually be personally doing blockchain transactions, right? These ETFs have nothing to do with that.

I will say that the ETF managers (with appropriate SEC oversight) are probably going to be better at managing their private keys than your average ETF investor, so I generally see this as a positive thing getting the speculators with little technical knowledge onto a safer, more centralized solution.

Maybe a "stepping stone" is a better analogy than a "gateway" . . . . but I think you know what I meant anyway.
Some wannabee Bitcoin investors can't get direct or easy access to Bitcoin. Spot ETF gives them a chance to participate - albeit by proxy.
Some don't-know-anything-about-Bitcoin investors might be recommended 1% in Bitcoin ETF - and then they might get interested and educated enough to conclude that what they really want is Bitcoin.

I think the private-key-management theory is probably irrelevant. I doubt Joe Average Independent Investor will be buying many Spot ETF's. If Joe likes Bitcoin Joe probably wants Bitcoin, and Joe can buy Bitcoin.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2059 on: January 12, 2024, 01:51:18 PM »
I'm digging waaaaay back in my memory, but I think there was a similar excitement in late 2004 when the GLD ETF was first introduced as an easy way to invest in gold. This vehicle was expected to drive demand to the roof.

Maybe it did. After a 7.4% drop in the first few months, GLD went on to beat the price performance of the S&P500 over the next 17 years.

https://yhoo.it/47tFQEs

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2060 on: January 12, 2024, 06:00:14 PM »
[snip]

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

[snip]

Bitcoin purists will always buy actual Bitcoin rather than the ETF, and will always encourage others to do the same where possible. That said, I'm pretty sure most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing - a gateway to Bitcoin for the masses.

I think you're right about the first part. I think you're wrong about the second part. I think they know that the ETF would probably spark doom for BTC price overall and into the future but that's just my opinion. I don't think the masses will never hold real bitcoin and the ETFs IMO are so disconnected from crypto (and in line with normal stock market BS) that they're going to damage and dilute the purpose, need, and belief in bitcoin in the general public - even though the general public will assume they're holding actual bitcoin instead of pieces of stock.

Well, that's your opinion but we weren't discussing your opinion. We were discussing the opinions of 'Bitcoin purists'.

Most of the vocal Bitcoiners are, and have been for some time, more positive than negative about the likely effects of Spot ETFs (which have long been inevitable in any case).

Could go either way though. It's diving right now and I made a nice chunk already today on a couple quick shorts. We'll see what happens over the weekend.

Short term price moves are of very little relevance to anything and are of very little interest to me. I'd put them roughly on a par with, say, random brags about winning trades.

A "more vocal bitcoiner" does not mean that they're a "purist".... I think you've got it messed up and twisted a bit. Ever put any thought into what and why they're "more vocal"? Maybe to gain traction and acquire more public approval.

You know what else is inevitable? That the approval of spot-etfs for crypto is the stepping stone to mandating regulation of all crypto. And most of the purists know this is a major threat, and therefore they are rightfully pissed off.

I'm not long on any crypto but I view decentralization of bitcoin as being good. I think this is a gateway to CBDCs more than a gateway to BTC for the average investor as you mentioned previously. That something important to take into consideration, which most purists have done.

The purists, HOWEVER, were the ones being the most vocal on tuesday and wednsday and thursday and still today - about the short term price moves caused by the SECs mishandling of their twitter account security. Meanwhile the hardcore pro-ETFers were not even caring or thinking about what damage that caused. Respectfully, you gotta consider all angles there.

Short term price moves being of little relevance is a very less than correct statement.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2061 on: January 12, 2024, 06:07:39 PM »
I'm digging waaaaay back in my memory, but I think there was a similar excitement in late 2004 when the GLD ETF was first introduced as an easy way to invest in gold. This vehicle was expected to drive demand to the roof.

Maybe it did. After a 7.4% drop in the first few months, GLD went on to beat the price performance of the S&P500 over the next 17 years.

https://yhoo.it/47tFQEs


That is interesting to know. I wonder if it will beat the S&P at the 30 year mark? With the S&P known to be a "20 year minimum" to see your good return, I'd wonder if it ends up outperforming GLD. What are your thoughts, cheap bastard? (lol, that sounds funny to ask you a financial question by name).


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2062 on: January 12, 2024, 09:23:23 PM »
I'm digging waaaaay back in my memory, but I think there was a similar excitement in late 2004 when the GLD ETF was first introduced as an easy way to invest in gold. This vehicle was expected to drive demand to the roof.

Maybe it did. After a 7.4% drop in the first few months, GLD went on to beat the price performance of the S&P500 over the next 17 years.

https://yhoo.it/47tFQEs

I've heard this comparison made on financial TV as well.  At the time, I was surprised they didn't compare to the more recent introduction of futures Bitcoin ETFs, which also involved a surge then flop.

Riot Blockchain ($RIOT) hit a high of $17.02 after spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved on Jan 11.  It closed the next day at $11.73, falling 31% from that high in two trading days.

Bitcoin's two day high vs close was a fall of 13%.  It will be interesting to watch how well ETFs track Bitcoin's price moves over time, with IBIT moving -17% and GBTC -11% from two day high to Friday close.



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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2063 on: January 12, 2024, 09:38:31 PM »
[snip]

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

[snip]

Bitcoin purists will always buy actual Bitcoin rather than the ETF, and will always encourage others to do the same where possible. That said, I'm pretty sure most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing - a gateway to Bitcoin for the masses.

I think you're right about the first part. I think you're wrong about the second part. I think they know that the ETF would probably spark doom for BTC price overall and into the future but that's just my opinion. I don't think the masses will never hold real bitcoin and the ETFs IMO are so disconnected from crypto (and in line with normal stock market BS) that they're going to damage and dilute the purpose, need, and belief in bitcoin in the general public - even though the general public will assume they're holding actual bitcoin instead of pieces of stock.

Well, that's your opinion but we weren't discussing your opinion. We were discussing the opinions of 'Bitcoin purists'.

Most of the vocal Bitcoiners are, and have been for some time, more positive than negative about the likely effects of Spot ETFs (which have long been inevitable in any case).

Could go either way though. It's diving right now and I made a nice chunk already today on a couple quick shorts. We'll see what happens over the weekend.

Short term price moves are of very little relevance to anything and are of very little interest to me. I'd put them roughly on a par with, say, random brags about winning trades.

A "more vocal bitcoiner" does not mean that they're a "purist".... I think you've got it messed up and twisted a bit. Ever put any thought into what and why they're "more vocal"? Maybe to gain traction and acquire more public approval.

Who said anything about "more vocal" ?
I'm talking about vocal Bitcoiners as opposed to non-vocal. The vocal are mostly positive. We don't know what the non-vocal think as they are, by definition, silent.

In my estimation, the following are all Bitcoiner purists. If you think otherwise, please define your term and provide your own example names.
Back, Bent, Odell, Saylor, Booth, Pysh, Foss, Keiser, Bhatia, Alden, Klippsten, etc. have all expressed mostly positive views on the likely effects of Spot ETFs.
The most negative/sceptical I've come across is Lepard.

You know what else is inevitable? That the approval of spot-etfs for crypto is the stepping stone to mandating regulation of all crypto. And most of the purists know this is a major threat, and therefore they are rightfully pissed off.

Names ? Evidence ?

I'm not long on any crypto but I view decentralization of bitcoin as being good. I think this is a gateway to CBDCs more than a gateway to BTC for the average investor as you mentioned previously. That something important to take into consideration, which most purists have done.

Names ? Evidence ?

The purists, HOWEVER, were the ones being the most vocal on tuesday and wednsday and thursday and still today - about the short term price moves caused by the SECs mishandling of their twitter account security.

Names ? Evidence ?

Meanwhile the hardcore pro-ETFers were not even caring or thinking about what damage that caused. Respectfully, you gotta consider all angles there.

Short term price moves being of little relevance is a very less than correct statement.

The SEC screwed this up badly but I fail to see any lasting damage (other than to SEC's reputation). A few price swings and it was all over.

If you're a daytrader, short term price moves are significant and interesting. If you're a serious Bitcoiner, it's just noise.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2064 on: January 13, 2024, 05:26:05 AM »
Bitcoin ETFs already exist in places outside the US, have you folks looked at how those impacted Bitcoin investing habits of folks in those locations? Might add some data to the speculation as to how investors might respond to these products.

Or is the thinking that US investors will behave meaningfully differently or that because the US is such a huge market that the behavior of investors will have a much bigger impact, and could create a self-perpetuating wave of investor behaviour?

I'm just curious why no one has brought data about existing ETFs into the discussion.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2065 on: January 13, 2024, 09:03:29 AM »
[snip]

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

[snip]

Bitcoin purists will always buy actual Bitcoin rather than the ETF, and will always encourage others to do the same where possible. That said, I'm pretty sure most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing - a gateway to Bitcoin for the masses.

I think you're right about the first part. I think you're wrong about the second part. I think they know that the ETF would probably spark doom for BTC price overall and into the future but that's just my opinion. I don't think the masses will never hold real bitcoin and the ETFs IMO are so disconnected from crypto (and in line with normal stock market BS) that they're going to damage and dilute the purpose, need, and belief in bitcoin in the general public - even though the general public will assume they're holding actual bitcoin instead of pieces of stock.

Well, that's your opinion but we weren't discussing your opinion. We were discussing the opinions of 'Bitcoin purists'.

Most of the vocal Bitcoiners are, and have been for some time, more positive than negative about the likely effects of Spot ETFs (which have long been inevitable in any case).

Could go either way though. It's diving right now and I made a nice chunk already today on a couple quick shorts. We'll see what happens over the weekend.

Short term price moves are of very little relevance to anything and are of very little interest to me. I'd put them roughly on a par with, say, random brags about winning trades.

A "more vocal bitcoiner" does not mean that they're a "purist".... I think you've got it messed up and twisted a bit. Ever put any thought into what and why they're "more vocal"? Maybe to gain traction and acquire more public approval.

Who said anything about "more vocal" ?
I'm talking about vocal Bitcoiners as opposed to non-vocal. The vocal are mostly positive. We don't know what the non-vocal think as they are, by definition, silent.

In my estimation, the following are all Bitcoiner purists. If you think otherwise, please define your term and provide your own example names.
Back, Bent, Odell, Saylor, Booth, Pysh, Foss, Keiser, Bhatia, Alden, Klippsten, etc. have all expressed mostly positive views on the likely effects of Spot ETFs.
The most negative/sceptical I've come across is Lepard.

You know what else is inevitable? That the approval of spot-etfs for crypto is the stepping stone to mandating regulation of all crypto. And most of the purists know this is a major threat, and therefore they are rightfully pissed off.

Names ? Evidence ?

I'm not long on any crypto but I view decentralization of bitcoin as being good. I think this is a gateway to CBDCs more than a gateway to BTC for the average investor as you mentioned previously. That something important to take into consideration, which most purists have done.

Names ? Evidence ?

The purists, HOWEVER, were the ones being the most vocal on tuesday and wednsday and thursday and still today - about the short term price moves caused by the SECs mishandling of their twitter account security.

Names ? Evidence ?

Meanwhile the hardcore pro-ETFers were not even caring or thinking about what damage that caused. Respectfully, you gotta consider all angles there.

Short term price moves being of little relevance is a very less than correct statement.

The SEC screwed this up badly but I fail to see any lasting damage (other than to SEC's reputation). A few price swings and it was all over.

If you're a daytrader, short term price moves are significant and interesting. If you're a serious Bitcoiner, it's just noise.

All of them that have at least something to say are "vocal", my apology if I incorrectly assumed you saying that "most of the vocal bitcoiners" respresented the majority of those who are front and present in the cryptoshpere, none of which I follow but I've seen what the ones you mention have to say and I think they're primarily full of hot air.

Go check out the SEC twitter account, check some of the big names who are "less vocal", and you'll see who's there and who's upset. Than you can check their profiles and judge/decide whether they're purists or not since very tight definitions are so important...

The vast majority of the people you mentioned are not the same type of purists as definition would define otherwise they'd be completely against the ETF from the get-go. They're "pop-coiners", they're corporate front-runners, etc. and are in the public eye of bitcoin to an extent, nothing more. Being intelligent and with good business experience and/or success in one area and presenting as an authority on bitcoin doesn't make them purist. That's like saying a liberal voter is an old-school anarchist.

Have a good weekend.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2024, 09:48:38 AM by WayDownSouth »

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2066 on: January 13, 2024, 09:13:52 AM »
Bitcoin ETFs already exist in places outside the US, have you folks looked at how those impacted Bitcoin investing habits of folks in those locations? Might add some data to the speculation as to how investors might respond to these products.

Or is the thinking that US investors will behave meaningfully differently or that because the US is such a huge market that the behavior of investors will have a much bigger impact, and could create a self-perpetuating wave of investor behaviour?

I'm just curious why no one has brought data about existing ETFs into the discussion.

IMHO the bold part. Considering it's the dollar. Population size. Dominance in bitcoin ownership (at least as what's perceived/reported) when compared to foreign markets. The fact that Americans always seem to act and react differently. The particular timing. The economy. The state of everything socio-political.

I think many people genuinely have no idea that other markets have already been running crypto ETFs if for no reason more than simply never being told.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2067 on: January 13, 2024, 09:25:54 AM »

"Short term price moves are of very little relevance to anything and are of very little interest to me. I'd put them roughly on a par with, say, random brags about winning trades."


I put your quote in larger font and bold italic so it looks cooler.

This whole forum is absolutely LOADED with people talking about their wins on all sorts of investments. Massive wins, massive profits over time.

I, in particular, have very little interest in the irrelevance of opinions coming from someone who makes muted, cheap personal jabs when talking about a few grand.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2024, 09:45:13 AM by WayDownSouth »

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2068 on: January 13, 2024, 12:48:09 PM »
[snip]

The BTC "purists" seem to not like the idea, while many other crypto-fans love the idea of the ETF. The stock market itself (not the crypto market) seems equally divided for many different reasons.

[snip]

Bitcoin purists will always buy actual Bitcoin rather than the ETF, and will always encourage others to do the same where possible. That said, I'm pretty sure most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing - a gateway to Bitcoin for the masses.

I think you're right about the first part. I think you're wrong about the second part. I think they know that the ETF would probably spark doom for BTC price overall and into the future but that's just my opinion. I don't think the masses will never hold real bitcoin and the ETFs IMO are so disconnected from crypto (and in line with normal stock market BS) that they're going to damage and dilute the purpose, need, and belief in bitcoin in the general public - even though the general public will assume they're holding actual bitcoin instead of pieces of stock.

Well, that's your opinion but we weren't discussing your opinion. We were discussing the opinions of 'Bitcoin purists'.

Most of the vocal Bitcoiners are, and have been for some time, more positive than negative about the likely effects of Spot ETFs (which have long been inevitable in any case).

Could go either way though. It's diving right now and I made a nice chunk already today on a couple quick shorts. We'll see what happens over the weekend.

Short term price moves are of very little relevance to anything and are of very little interest to me. I'd put them roughly on a par with, say, random brags about winning trades.

A "more vocal bitcoiner" does not mean that they're a "purist".... I think you've got it messed up and twisted a bit. Ever put any thought into what and why they're "more vocal"? Maybe to gain traction and acquire more public approval.

Who said anything about "more vocal" ?
I'm talking about vocal Bitcoiners as opposed to non-vocal. The vocal are mostly positive. We don't know what the non-vocal think as they are, by definition, silent.

In my estimation, the following are all Bitcoiner purists. If you think otherwise, please define your term and provide your own example names.
Back, Bent, Odell, Saylor, Booth, Pysh, Foss, Keiser, Bhatia, Alden, Klippsten, etc. have all expressed mostly positive views on the likely effects of Spot ETFs.
The most negative/sceptical I've come across is Lepard.

You know what else is inevitable? That the approval of spot-etfs for crypto is the stepping stone to mandating regulation of all crypto. And most of the purists know this is a major threat, and therefore they are rightfully pissed off.

Names ? Evidence ?

I'm not long on any crypto but I view decentralization of bitcoin as being good. I think this is a gateway to CBDCs more than a gateway to BTC for the average investor as you mentioned previously. That something important to take into consideration, which most purists have done.

Names ? Evidence ?

The purists, HOWEVER, were the ones being the most vocal on tuesday and wednsday and thursday and still today - about the short term price moves caused by the SECs mishandling of their twitter account security.

Names ? Evidence ?

Meanwhile the hardcore pro-ETFers were not even caring or thinking about what damage that caused. Respectfully, you gotta consider all angles there.

Short term price moves being of little relevance is a very less than correct statement.

The SEC screwed this up badly but I fail to see any lasting damage (other than to SEC's reputation). A few price swings and it was all over.

If you're a daytrader, short term price moves are significant and interesting. If you're a serious Bitcoiner, it's just noise.

All of them that have at least something to say are "vocal", my apology if I incorrectly assumed you saying that "most of the vocal bitcoiners" respresented the majority of those who are front and present in the cryptoshpere, none of which I follow but I've seen what the ones you mention have to say and I think they're primarily full of hot air.

Go check out the SEC twitter account, check some of the big names who are "less vocal", and you'll see who's there and who's upset. Than you can check their profiles and judge/decide whether they're purists or not since very tight definitions are so important...

The vast majority of the people you mentioned are not the same type of purists as definition would define otherwise they'd be completely against the ETF from the get-go. They're "pop-coiners", they're corporate front-runners, etc. and are in the public eye of bitcoin to an extent, nothing more. Being intelligent and with good business experience and/or success in one area and presenting as an authority on bitcoin doesn't make them purist. That's like saying a liberal voter is an old-school anarchist.

Have a good weekend.

Firstly, some clarification:
My initial statement in this chat "most Bitcoin purists see the Spot ETFs as a good thing" was imprecise and potentially misleading. My apologies.
My later statement that "vocal Bitcoiners are more positive than negative about the likely effects of Spot ETFs" is better.

I'd describe the general view that I've seen, and that I broadly share, as:
Being anti-SpotETF = Canute = a waste of time and energy. A Spot ETF is an inevitable step on the road to maturity.
A Spot ETF does legitimise Bitcoin. It's acknowledgement from the SEC and several major financial institutions that Bitcoin is a serious thing.
A Spot ETF provides access for some where direct access to Bitcoin does not exist.
A Spot ETF is an easy-access, a gateway, an entry point that could get people on the right road towards owning Bitcoin.
These are all good things.
On the other hand, a Spot ETF has risks - diversion from the true project, centralisation of capital, opportunities for manipulation, etc., etc.

I don't think any of the names I listed are pro-SpotETF per se. A Spot ETF goes against the grain - but they acknowledge that it was inevitable and will probably, overall, be beneficial as described above.
And, for clarity, I've not identified those names as anything more than "vocal". I'm not suggesting they are bastions of truth or the ultimate reference for Bitcoin matters.

And, returning to this business of "purists":
You've advised me that my attempted definition was wrong, failed to provide your definition, and invited me to go out and find some examples from a category I clearly don't understand (from a platform I rarely use).
You need to help me out here. Give me just a couple of names of your "purists" that (i) identify the SpotETF as a major threat, and (ii) think the SpotETF is a gateway to a CDBC, and (iii) were vocal Tue-Thu about the short term price moves - as you described.  With nothing backing them up, all those claims are just groundless assertions.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2069 on: January 13, 2024, 01:15:52 PM »

"Short term price moves are of very little relevance to anything and are of very little interest to me. I'd put them roughly on a par with, say, random brags about winning trades."


I put your quote in larger font and bold italic so it looks cooler.

This whole forum is absolutely LOADED with people talking about their wins on all sorts of investments. Massive wins, massive profits over time.

I, in particular, have very little interest in the irrelevance of opinions coming from someone who makes muted, cheap personal jabs when talking about a few grand.

Context:
If you're a daytrader, short term price moves are significant and interesting. If you're a serious Bitcoiner, it's just noise.

Congrats on your win. It just seemed a bit random/superfluous in a discussion about what the "purists" think.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2070 on: January 17, 2024, 12:01:18 AM »
Within reason, I'm expecting (and will gladly accept my reasoning to be wrong as I'm a day trader and not a crypto trader) at LEAST 25% drop within a span of 3 days total, followed by a slight uptick and another 10% drop... I mean, there's infinite ways it could play out but let's just say for sake of simplicity, over a period of 5 to 7 days total, 30 to 40% drop. Before Jan 10th for sure IMHO.

Well we're now at January 10th.  The biggest drop I saw since you posted was a very brief 9% decline but definitely nothing in the 25-30% range. The USD price of bitcoin was $43.7k when this was posted and $45.2k as I write this.

@WayDownSouth now that the period you were predicting price moves in has passed would you care to talk about the reasoning that went into the prediction and how, if at all, your views have changed as you make future predictions as a result of this unexpected outcome?

@maizefolk I didn't forget about this I began writing a post this evening but it's a fucking mess. I need to organize it all because it's wayyyyyy too long. stay tuned. Needless to say I didn't hit the target on the big price drop. I'm trying to explain what I saw/felt and my reasoning for wanting to short it massively, but man it's a LOT of info when written out. coming soon.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2071 on: January 19, 2024, 10:18:59 AM »
I view spot Bitcoin ETFs as hype that will inflate the price of Bitcoin, so I plan to short it.  I expect the SEC to grant approval to multiple ETFs, which I predict sends BTC-USD above $50,000.  Within days or weeks I expect spot Bitcoin ETFs to be open for investment, at which point I'll short again.  Then I wait for the hype to fade.
The hype faded.  iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) fell 21% in the eight days since it was listed.  Instead of shorting Bitcoin shares, I just bought one share of IBIT which I sold today.  Demonstrates the same point, and avoids adding another active investment.

I view Bitcoin as sentiment, not fundamental, so I don't dig as much into research and claims made in articles about it.  This article claims Grayscale sold off $1.3 billion to cover redemptions in $GBTC shares, which is larger than the size of $IBIT (the second largest spot Bitcoin ETF).  Maybe the new ETFs were all funded by people selling the old one (GBTC)?
https://crypto.news/analyst-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-sellout-has-clear-reasons/

Telecaster

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2072 on: January 19, 2024, 01:17:50 PM »
I view Bitcoin as sentiment, not fundamental, so I don't dig as much into research and claims made in articles about it.  This article claims Grayscale sold off $1.3 billion to cover redemptions in $GBTC shares, which is larger than the size of $IBIT (the second largest spot Bitcoin ETF).  Maybe the new ETFs were all funded by people selling the old one (GBTC)?
https://crypto.news/analyst-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-sellout-has-clear-reasons/

My best guess based on my reading is there have been about $1.3 billion in net inflows (that number is changing all the time of course) the rest has been from people exiting GBTC and buying new ETFs.   So there is some new money entering the space, but the hope "the suits will pump our bags" might not be realized.   

suddenwealth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2073 on: January 24, 2024, 06:51:19 AM »
https://er-bybitcoin.com/stacking-em-volume-36-january-2024/

The orange line is the performance of my bitcoin savings strategy. The blue line is the performance of putting similar amounts on similar days into S&P (the standard boomer savings strategy). The bitcoin strategy has given me a profit of ~330% for the money put in, whereas the S&P strategy would have given me a measly profit of 42% for the money put in, after 6+ years (that can’t be more than inflation really). I made this chart because I used to be obsessed about the early retirement / financial independence thing, blogs like Mr Money Moustache, for example. Basically, they save as much as they can and buy the S&P with it every month. So, I felt like finding the cheat codes and wanted to track just how much better it is to always buy bitcoin instead. Feel free to share this chart to anyone in the FIRE sphere =D.

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2074 on: January 24, 2024, 07:56:32 AM »
So . . . you're saying you have a scheme to get rich?  And quick?

:P

suddenwealth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2075 on: January 24, 2024, 08:03:35 AM »
So . . . you're saying you have a scheme to get rich?  And quick?

:P

That's not my post and it's not quick. The guy has been DCAing into bitcoin monthly over the past 6 years. He buys 500 euro each month and has built up a stash of 4.47 BTC. 40k worth of purchases that is now worth 178,800.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2024, 08:07:13 AM by suddenwealth »

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2076 on: January 24, 2024, 08:16:38 AM »
So . . . you're saying you have a scheme to get rich?  And quick?

:P

That's not my post and it's not quick. The guy has been DCAing into bitcoin monthly over the past 6 years. He buys 500 euro each month and has built up a stash of 4.47 BTC. 40k worth of purchases that is now worth 178,800.

You don't think that more than quadrupling your money in 6 years is quick?

waltworks

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2077 on: January 24, 2024, 01:09:42 PM »
whereas the S&P strategy would have given me a measly profit of 42% for the money put in, after 6+ years (that can’t be more than inflation really). 

FWIW, from January 2018 to today, the S&P has returned a real 7% annualized (11% nominal).

If you're ever bored you can find those returns for any time period here:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

No comment on the "standard boomer savings strategy" thing...

-W

Juan Ponce de León

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2078 on: January 24, 2024, 01:27:53 PM »
So . . . you're saying you have a scheme to get rich?  And quick?

:P

That's not my post and it's not quick. The guy has been DCAing into bitcoin monthly over the past 6 years. He buys 500 euro each month and has built up a stash of 4.47 BTC. 40k worth of purchases that is now worth 178,800.

You don't think that more than quadrupling your money in 6 years is quick?

Sounds like you're the one saying he has a scheme to get rich.... and quick

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2079 on: February 21, 2024, 08:39:34 AM »
Stranded: How Bitcoin is Saving Wasted Energy and Expanding Financial Freedom in Africa

by Alex Gladstein: Chief Strategy Officer of the Human Rights Foundation (and a Bitcoiner) - following his Dec2023 visit to Africa.

An interesting hour's reading for an open mind.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2080 on: February 21, 2024, 11:43:46 AM »
So . . . you're saying you have a scheme to get rich?  And quick?

:P

That's not my post and it's not quick. The guy has been DCAing into bitcoin monthly over the past 6 years. He buys 500 euro each month and has built up a stash of 4.47 BTC. 40k worth of purchases that is now worth 178,800.

You don't think that more than quadrupling your money in 6 years is quick?

Sounds like you're the one saying he has a scheme to get rich.... and quick

Well he's worth 221k Euros today so he's done extremely well and took in an extra 40k in less than a month since you posted that!

suddenwealth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2081 on: March 11, 2024, 04:34:36 AM »
So . . . you're saying you have a scheme to get rich?  And quick?

:P

That's not my post and it's not quick. The guy has been DCAing into bitcoin monthly over the past 6 years. He buys 500 euro each month and has built up a stash of 4.47 BTC. 40k worth of purchases that is now worth 178,800.

You don't think that more than quadrupling your money in 6 years is quick?

Sounds like you're the one saying he has a scheme to get rich.... and quick

Well he's worth 221k Euros today so he's done extremely well and took in an extra 40k in less than a month since you posted that!

Up another 100k to 321k euros in less than 3 weeks. Bitcoin on a tear. I think it's now safe to say the ETFs weren't priced in.... And the halving still isn't either...

Juan Ponce de León

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2082 on: March 11, 2024, 08:13:36 AM »
Have the genius bitcoin shorters taken profits yet?

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2083 on: March 11, 2024, 10:59:30 AM »
Have the genius bitcoin shorters taken profits yet?
I think you need a refresher on the forum rules when you mock people as "genius":
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/forum-rules/

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2084 on: March 11, 2024, 02:18:28 PM »
Have the genius bitcoin shorters taken profits yet?

I took a measly few grand around Christmas/New Year but then the conditions I was expecting didn't fit when they approved the ETFs so I dumped that plan.

I took a few hundred the other day very easily since it I knew it'd drop after that pump.

I'm trying to pay attention, if I get the chance and this things drops back into the 40's, 30's, or 20's I'll be on it I hope. That doesn't mean I'm wishing people to lose money. I'm just not a buyer in any crypto for that matter. There's enough BS scamming and gameplay in the regular markets for me to get involved with crypto at any serious level. Did it before, made a bit, lost a bit, probably broke even. That was years ago. My trading strategy doesn't wotk well with crypto.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2085 on: March 11, 2024, 03:02:53 PM »
So . . . you're saying you have a scheme to get rich?  And quick?

:P

That's not my post and it's not quick. The guy has been DCAing into bitcoin monthly over the past 6 years. He buys 500 euro each month and has built up a stash of 4.47 BTC. 40k worth of purchases that is now worth 178,800.

You don't think that more than quadrupling your money in 6 years is quick?

Sounds like you're the one saying he has a scheme to get rich.... and quick

Well he's worth 221k Euros today so he's done extremely well and took in an extra 40k in less than a month since you posted that!

Up another 100k to 321k euros in less than 3 weeks. Bitcoin on a tear. I think it's now safe to say the ETFs weren't priced in.... And the halving still isn't either...

You said 321k, really that would be in USD... In euros he's at 295k today... So in about 20 days he gained ANOTHER 70k euros. That's $110k euros approx in less than 45 days.. Impressive.

clarkfan1979

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2086 on: March 11, 2024, 03:21:57 PM »
Have the genius bitcoin shorters taken profits yet?

The original post was from September 6, 2021 and Bitcoin was trading at $52,664. The logic presented in the original post was that Bitcoin has increased in value by 88X since 2016. Maybe it increases in value by 88X in another 6 years?

Bitcoin is up $72,144 on March 11, 2024. That's an increase of 37% over 2.5 years. Not bad, but very short of 88X. You can probably find 50 stocks in the S&P 500 that have bigger gains. And all that logic would be post-hoc and meaningless.

 

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2087 on: March 11, 2024, 03:58:07 PM »
Have the genius bitcoin shorters taken profits yet?

The original post was from September 6, 2021 and Bitcoin was trading at $52,664. The logic presented in the original post was that Bitcoin has increased in value by 88X since 2016. Maybe it increases in value by 88X in another 6 years?

Bitcoin is up $72,144 on March 11, 2024. That's an increase of 37% over 2.5 years. Not bad, but very short of 88X. You can probably find 50 stocks in the S&P 500 that have bigger gains. And all that logic would be post-hoc and meaningless.

IMO you have to play it both up and down to really win big.

It has also gained 180% in 6 months, 251% in 12 months, and 1,774% in 5 years.. Plenty of ups and downs especially in the last 3 years alone for a smart trader holding 1 BTC at $50k to turn it into 10 BTC (approx 720K today) if they executed good shorts and then bought dips with their profits. The thing is you need to really be glued to this and also know what you're doing.

BTC never makes a big new high and holds. It's a near guarantee that this new ATH - regardless of if it stops today or goes to hit 100k - will drop back to by at 25% to 30% or more within 2 to 3 months or less of wherever/whenever it peaks. And if it climbs up to or shoots up to $120 or $160k, no matter how long it takes, it will drop by a much larger percent.

It's still a gamble either way. There is no skill involved that a normal day trader or swing trader wouldn't already have. It's not so much the volatility it's the difficulty in marking anything useful as a genuine pattern or precursor of the biggest gains and drops. I've tried and tried and I know I have some good leads and deep research done but they never play out in the time frame I expect and it's impossible to nail down. The high general price makes sniping this shit on a quick climb not worth the risk and same goes for shorting unless you're watching it live and catch a glimpse of a jump and have an order ready.

Many other ways to make the $ quicker. With that said, being up $120k Euros in less than 45 days without doing anything and only holding about 4.5 coins is an admirable gain for a long-term holder. I'd be taking 50% of that recent $120k profit today and I definitely would NOT be the least bit disappointed in myself for doing so - even if it spiked to 95 tomorrow.

joemandadman189

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2088 on: March 11, 2024, 04:15:01 PM »
MicroStrategy Inc. has gone over 3x in the last month

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2089 on: March 16, 2024, 01:57:27 AM »
MicroStrategy Inc. has gone over 3x in the last month
Close, but wrong.

Mar 15 price $1,782.36
Feb 15 price $718.00

Ohio Teacher

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2090 on: March 17, 2024, 06:26:23 AM »
I'm a little late to the thread, but I have a 1% allocation of our nest egg in BTC.  We are 64% VTSAX, 29% VTIAX, 6% cash (VFFXX), and 1% BTC. About a $500K portfolio. It has been my best performing asset class, and also the most volatile. So pretty much what was hoped for and expected.

dangbe

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2091 on: March 17, 2024, 08:25:00 PM »
It's still a gamble either way. There is no skill involved that a normal day trader or swing trader wouldn't already have. It's not so much the volatility it's the difficulty in marking anything useful as a genuine pattern or precursor of the biggest gains and drops.

Crypto has the simplest pattern ever as long as you zoom out far enough.  Every 4 years, sometime between October and January, BTC will hit its highest high. 
All Time Highs:
2013 December
2017 December
2021 November
2025 ???

This year has thrown a bit of a loop to this pattern though with an ATH off the four year cycle, but I'm betting that there will be a significant retracement before climbing all next year for the 2025 ATH at the end of the year.  I could be wrong and patterns don't repeat forever, but it certainly paid off very well in 2021. 

joemandadman189

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2092 on: March 18, 2024, 10:27:58 AM »
MicroStrategy Inc. has gone over 3x in the last month
Close, but wrong.

Mar 15 price $1,782.36
Feb 15 price $718.00

Sorry - add about a week back to Feb 7 price of $505
So serious


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2093 on: March 19, 2024, 08:46:37 AM »
MicroStrategy Inc. has gone over 3x in the last month
Close, but wrong.

Mar 15 price $1,782.36
Feb 15 price $718.00

Sorry - add about a week back to Feb 7 price of $505
So serious
$505 versus current $1265.  Still wrong.

Psychstache

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2094 on: March 19, 2024, 10:51:31 AM »
MicroStrategy Inc. has gone over 3x in the last month
Close, but wrong.

Mar 15 price $1,782.36
Feb 15 price $718.00

Sorry - add about a week back to Feb 7 price of $505
So serious
$505 versus current $1265.  Still wrong.

You could generously interpret this to close price on the day of the post (1484) vs. the 2/7 price of 505 and be kinda close to 3x.

joemandadman189

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2095 on: March 19, 2024, 01:02:35 PM »
MicroStrategy Inc. has gone over 3x in the last month
Close, but wrong.

Mar 15 price $1,782.36
Feb 15 price $718.00

Sorry - add about a week back to Feb 7 price of $505
So serious
$505 versus current $1265.  Still wrong.

What's your problem?

As Psychstash points out above its pretty close on the day of the post

I am just pointing out an observation about company that holds crypto and their recent stock price run up, whether its 2.9 or 3 or 2.5, the specific # isn't the point, the large change in valuation is. In future posts i wont be so vague and be sure to post specific reasons and data to back up a random observation.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2096 on: March 19, 2024, 05:16:55 PM »
It's still a gamble either way. There is no skill involved that a normal day trader or swing trader wouldn't already have. It's not so much the volatility it's the difficulty in marking anything useful as a genuine pattern or precursor of the biggest gains and drops.

Crypto has the simplest pattern ever as long as you zoom out far enough.  Every 4 years, sometime between October and January, BTC will hit its highest high. 
All Time Highs:
2013 December
2017 December
2021 November
2025 ???

This year has thrown a bit of a loop to this pattern though with an ATH off the four year cycle, but I'm betting that there will be a significant retracement before climbing all next year for the 2025 ATH at the end of the year.  I could be wrong and patterns don't repeat forever, but it certainly paid off very well in 2021.

LOL

dangbe

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2097 on: March 19, 2024, 08:09:17 PM »
It's still a gamble either way. There is no skill involved that a normal day trader or swing trader wouldn't already have. It's not so much the volatility it's the difficulty in marking anything useful as a genuine pattern or precursor of the biggest gains and drops.

Crypto has the simplest pattern ever as long as you zoom out far enough.  Every 4 years, sometime between October and January, BTC will hit its highest high. 
All Time Highs:
2013 December
2017 December
2021 November
2025 ???

This year has thrown a bit of a loop to this pattern though with an ATH off the four year cycle, but I'm betting that there will be a significant retracement before climbing all next year for the 2025 ATH at the end of the year.  I could be wrong and patterns don't repeat forever, but it certainly paid off very well in 2021.

LOL

Are you laughing because its that simple or because you're looking for more micro patterns for shorter trades?  Or perhaps you just dont think that pattern will repeat again?

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2098 on: March 19, 2024, 08:20:13 PM »
This roulette table paid out RED - RED - RED - RED - RED . . . there's a simple pattern.  Clearly the next roll will be RED!

When you're basing predictions on literally no value and no fundamental change, just grasping at patterns you're gambling.  Every gambler has a system based around patterns.

dangbe

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2099 on: March 19, 2024, 08:41:01 PM »
This roulette table paid out RED - RED - RED - RED - RED . . . there's a simple pattern.  Clearly the next roll will be RED!

When you're basing predictions on literally no value and no fundamental change, just grasping at patterns you're gambling.  Every gambler has a system based around patterns.

Sure, but there is a basis.  When bitcoin experiences a halvening event it reduces the amount of bitcoin that is added to the market by miners.  Theres a delayed reaction as the supply is more restricted pumping demand.  I think its also just what the community expects to happen to.  So a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.  I guess we will see what happens next year.

Also if you're not interested in gambling what are you doing in a crypto thread?

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!