Author Topic: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation  (Read 73237 times)

dandarc

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #700 on: January 04, 2022, 01:09:56 PM »
I find it interesting how the discussion ceased together with the latest meltdown.
I bet that we will see crypto discussions pop up again with the next run.

Isnít that telling?
This is the way it has been for at least the 5 years. Maybe a whole decade now even. BTC price runs up and way too many people jump on the crypto bandwagon and start talking about it way too much. Prices go down or even just stay level for a while and most of the pro-crypto crowd largely shuts the hell up. The rest of us would prefer not to discuss it all anyway. I need it to crash further though - threads here have quieted but I definitely could still use some more silence on crypto elsewhere.

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #701 on: January 04, 2022, 01:28:07 PM »
HODL HODL HODL

talltexan

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #702 on: January 04, 2022, 01:49:37 PM »
I find it interesting how the discussion ceased together with the latest meltdown.
I bet that we will see crypto discussions pop up again with the next run.

Isnít that telling?
This is the way it has been for at least the 5 years. Maybe a whole decade now even. BTC price runs up and way too many people jump on the crypto bandwagon and start talking about it way too much. Prices go down or even just stay level for a while and most of the pro-crypto crowd largely shuts the hell up. The rest of us would prefer not to discuss it all anyway. I need it to crash further though - threads here have quieted but I definitely could still use some more silence on crypto elsewhere.

Three of the six currencies I track have increased in price since 12/15/2021 (Poly/Matic, ZRX and CHAINLINK). Because Bitcoin is so large, the total market cap is probably lower, sure. I've continued to trade even while not being active here.

BicycleB

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #703 on: January 04, 2022, 04:09:24 PM »
I'm sort of amused that BTC $46,000 and ETH $3,800 are a "crash".

Those are within about 35% of record levels in highly volatile items. Previous crashes had much bigger drops, like 70% or 90% neighborhood. Using a logarithmic history, current values are within a hairsbreadth of the top for items that appreciated over 1,000 to 1 (10 or more doublings so far; still well within the top band of the 10.)

Also I'm pretty sure they're both higher than some point in the last 6 or 8 months. (ETA: ETH is up nearly 25% since Sept 20's $3,062; almost doubled since July 12's $1896. BTC up slightly since Sept 20's $43,209; up about 50% since July 12's $31,797 per Yahoo Finance.) Previously, sometimes a drop lasted 2 or 3 years.

Neither depth nor duration really says crash to me yet. To me it looks more like churning.

DaTrill

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #704 on: January 04, 2022, 08:04:04 PM »
0% crypto is the best LT allocation.  ST play with small amount of your portfolio (dividend yield on SP 500) and you won't be hurt to badly if/when the sands shift like pot stock, SPACs, IPOs, (whatever else Wall Street dreams up to "help individual investors" ;) 

I'm experienced enough to have seen several booms and bust where "reputable" media outlets (after significant ad dollars are bought by fly by night industry) would pose "Should (Arabian horses, Japanese conglomerates/Railroad/Radio/eyeball/Napster) be part of your portfolio?"  The correct answer is always 0%, but maybe this time is different this time;) 

The crypto price will take years to unwind as too many have been paid not to work and have just speculated their way to paper wealth.  I can count the number of people on my thumb who have correctly pulled the plug on any of the above manias, crypto will be the same.  Ending the student debt moratorium (May 2022) will be the final nail in the coffin but could have a few dead cat bounces between now and then.         

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #705 on: January 06, 2022, 05:45:24 AM »
The S&P 500 has had 3 amazing years in a row, which pushes P/E ratios up to 26.5.  And then you have CAPE reaching it's 2nd all time highest point (the 1st being right before the dot-com crash).  There's many ways this could play out, but ultimately I think it shows 2022 is a riskier year.

I'd like to avoid having very risky assets in a very risky year, so I've sold all of my crypto.  My direct holdings, ETHE, and calls on BITO.  It seems like crypto follows the stock market, so that a risk for growth stocks is a risk for crypto.

Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #706 on: January 22, 2022, 11:00:39 AM »
How the faith in crypto is holding up here these days?

1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
3. As AA not correlated to the market.
4. As a store of value?
5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.
6. HODL? Or BUY more?

What is the current sentiment for 200k forecast for 2022?
« Last Edit: January 22, 2022, 11:06:33 AM by ArnoldK »

Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #707 on: January 22, 2022, 11:27:41 AM »
It always recovers buy the drop it's on sale. Look at it's insanely long history. Apply the same logic as we apply to stocks.

Thanks for the tip. I think i will go all in.

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #708 on: January 22, 2022, 12:21:45 PM »
It always recovers buy the drop it's on sale. Look at it's insanely long history. Apply the same logic as we apply to stocks.

Thanks for the tip. I think i will go all in.

You're welcome!

I like to time markets so I'm waiting for it to be worth negative 12k before I buy in.

I'd be willing to buy in at -11k.

the_gastropod

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #709 on: January 22, 2022, 03:18:03 PM »
Probably mostly preaching to the choir at this point, as the enthusiasm has gone silent. But for anyone still on the fence, I found this to be a remarkably well done (if long) video explaining the problems with crypto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

EvenSteven

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #710 on: January 22, 2022, 03:45:26 PM »
Probably mostly preaching to the choir at this point, as the enthusiasm has gone silent. But for anyone still on the fence, I found this to be a remarkably well done (if long) video explaining the problems with crypto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

Ha! I just watched that and came here to drop a link.

Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #711 on: January 22, 2022, 06:04:42 PM »
Probably mostly preaching to the choir at this point, as the enthusiasm has gone silent. But for anyone still on the fence, I found this to be a remarkably well done (if long) video explaining the problems with crypto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

Wow! A nice resource. Even worse scams than i have imagined!  I learned, in the video, a lot about the NFTs current landscape. Thanks a lot!

I'm a SW Engineer. Years ago I studied BTC, and especially blockchain protocols (to be potentially hired for some side chains implementations). It was apparent quite early to me that it is "no go" for many reasons. So I stayed away.

---

Funny thing. A year ago, during the NFT mania, there was a program on a respectable radio station (CBC), where the host invited an NFT expert to explain how cool and promise of golden future the NFTs have. The expert started: "NFTs are so cool, and are the future, but complicated. Two weeks ago I did not know what blockchain is...".

And these people are telling (us) that we don't get it, don't understand it. Funny.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2022, 06:18:29 PM by ArnoldK »

onecoolcat

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #712 on: January 22, 2022, 10:32:32 PM »
I am even more excited for Bitcoin now than i was in 2017.  Bear markets are where I make the best financial decisions because that is when I buy.  That said, we have a lot more red candles in store before I start buying because I have a good idea of where this is headed eventually.  I don't even if this is the real bear yet, or just another instance of what we had 6 months ago.  I think the bull is tired but I thought it was tired 6 months ago as well and i was proven wrong then.

I've consistently said that an extended downturn was coming, that this cycle is no different, and that I was concerned for the people going all in on Alts because I predicted they would get rekted when the bear starts.  I've seen it happen before.  Anyways, I will start buying when Bitcoin is down 65% from its highs and I think it will probably go as low as 75%.  If it doesn't go that low; it doesn't happen, but I think it will.  As last time, I am confident that it will rebound.  But, if it doesn't, I never put in more than 5% salary into it on any given year.  It's worked out for me fabulously so far so heres to a repeat of 2018-2020!


Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #713 on: January 23, 2022, 08:52:58 AM »
@onecoolcat

How you can be more excited now than in 2017, when all the "promises" for BTC been proven wrong, one after another:
1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
3. As AA not correlated to the market.
4. As a store of value?
5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.

I guess new promises will be invented?

It looks to me that you are just a gambler, gambling. That could be fair. But just admit it, it would be easier to communicate.

But not for me, the gambling supports the rotten BTC ecosystem, polluting our planet. The gambling is a hope to get rich at the expense of other fellow beings and our Mother Earth.


LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #714 on: January 23, 2022, 10:07:47 AM »
Still enthusiastic about the long term prospects for BTC here.

BTC has not been proven wrong - it has not been proven right or wrong YET. I'll reconsider if it's not become more established as a store of value / more widely adopted / still rattling around <$100k in 2025-7, but not before. I'm in no hurry, things take time. I'm happy to wait and watch, and see how things develop.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #715 on: January 23, 2022, 12:26:27 PM »
Still enthusiastic about the long term prospects for BTC here.

BTC has not been proven wrong - it has not been proven right or wrong YET. I'll reconsider if it's not become more established as a store of value / more widely adopted / still rattling around <$100k in 2025-7, but not before. I'm in no hurry, things take time. I'm happy to wait and watch, and see how things develop.

Tulips haven't been proven right or wrong YET either. People still plant them. And buy them. It's fucking insane to make posts like this see above.

Maybe if it actually stored the energy it consumed. It has no utility. It's only as valuable as the next guy is willing to pay you for it. You just bought art or a beanie baby if you can't see that you're not looking at how the world actually operates.

You're still comparing it to fucking dollars in your post. Further proving my points.

You've repeatedly emphasised ad nauseum that BTC only has a 13yr history. Yet it's "fucking insane" when I make the same point (that's it's still early days) ?

I compare it it to dollars as that's the current convention. Feel free to convert to gold or pork-bellies or CNY, etc. if you prefer. It doesn't make any difference.

I get it that you don't see any BTC utility. Others have a different view, and are actively using it for various purposes. The current broad trend is for wider adoption among a wider population that find it useful, but only time will tell.

DaTrill

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #716 on: January 23, 2022, 01:03:42 PM »
The correct allocation when asset risk is included in any MPT portfolio is 0%.  All accounts will eventually reflect this, either by not ever buying the digital collectable or letting the positions ride down to $0. 

I actually appreciate the cryptos were around during all these financial experiments (bond buying QE, direct checks, rent/loan moratorium) as it gave stupid/greedy people something to waste their money on rather than dumping it in ZM, ARK, PTON, creating more losses in the market. 

One can replace "socialism" with "crypto" and the sentences all sound and will end the same way, a few corrupt parties will make a ton, leave their respective countries, find a more corrupt sunny place for shady people and live a life of luxury.  Everyone else will be left waiting in line for panty hose and toilet paper.  If you are a HODLer and haven't picked out your villa yet, you're in the latter group and should find a retailer that will take crypto for toilet paper.       

vand

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #717 on: January 23, 2022, 01:56:54 PM »
Haven't read any of the rest of the thread, but crypto and blockchain technology has been around for well over a decade now and despite all the hype and bullshit, there hasn't yet been anyone who's acutally come up with a demonstrably useful application of it that some existing tech couldn't have done just as well if not better.

Emperor's new clothes.

Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #718 on: January 23, 2022, 02:14:33 PM »
OK. Here is another "crypto argument" buster.

Over the time i have had a few exchanges with crypto holders. At the end they just used argument "you are just envy that you did not get in earlier".
So, now it is >50% down. And even Tom Lee (I still like the guy) expects 200k for 2022. So, now would be a very good time to get in.

And i don't get in. So, they were wrong that i was jealous. On the second thought if goes like -10K, even -1K i might consider. But on third thought no, I cannot support this crap.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #719 on: January 23, 2022, 03:29:26 PM »
Still enthusiastic about the long term prospects for BTC here.

BTC has not been proven wrong - it has not been proven right or wrong YET. I'll reconsider if it's not become more established as a store of value / more widely adopted / still rattling around <$100k in 2025-7, but not before. I'm in no hurry, things take time. I'm happy to wait and watch, and see how things develop.

Tulips haven't been proven right or wrong YET either. People still plant them. And buy them. It's fucking insane to make posts like this see above.

Maybe if it actually stored the energy it consumed. It has no utility. It's only as valuable as the next guy is willing to pay you for it. You just bought art or a beanie baby if you can't see that you're not looking at how the world actually operates.

You're still comparing it to fucking dollars in your post. Further proving my points.

You've repeatedly emphasised ad nauseum that BTC only has a 13yr history. Yet it's "fucking insane" when I make the same point (that's it's still early days) ?

I compare it it to dollars as that's the current convention. Feel free to convert to gold or pork-bellies or CNY, etc. if you prefer. It doesn't make any difference.

I get it that you don't see any BTC utility. Others have a different view, and are actively using it for various purposes. The current broad trend is for wider adoption among a wider population that find it useful, but only time will tell.

Really wtf are you actively using it to do?

And what is the broad trend that's happening for those who find it useful and again what in the hell is it being USED for

As previously discussed, my primary interest in BTC is as a store of value, an asset. It's not a very good SOV right now but my expectation is that volatility will reduce over time as adoption widens - and at a much higher level. So, in the shorter term, it's also speculative.

Others are are using it as a regular medium of exchange and to send money home, etc. - mostly in developing countries, esp. those with high inflation / weak currencies.

You can argue that this is all misguided but it's false to say that BTC doesn't have utility. Many find it useful and are choosing to use it.
The broad trend is increasing adoption = increasing utility = increasing value.

I'm not here claiming that BTC is definitely the future or that it's the best thing ever. However, I am opposing the concrete assertions that it's absolutely definitely all a worthless waste of time, energy and money. I just don't see the justification for such certainty at this stage of the game. Predicting the future is notoriously difficult.

Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #720 on: January 23, 2022, 04:22:22 PM »
Hi @LateStarter
By adoption you mean some institutions just feeling FOMO that others making $, pardon the lang, on fools? These institution only "adopt" to make money on the suckers. They are not committing themselves (ignoring things like COIN, SQUARE, BLOCK, these are more sophisticated in the game of screwing others, garbing as much $ as possible from the mob). Or you mean San Salvador, healthy economy matching Swiss?
:)

Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #721 on: January 23, 2022, 05:50:14 PM »
Trying to self answer since have not gotten much of responses to these important items.
Based on this thread and "other places".

Cryptos/blockchain values:

1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
Aka utility. There is i think already a wide consensus that this not happening. Almost no-one claims (anymore) in the last year that crypto's feature is utility.

2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
Proven recently that it is not true.

3. As AA not correlated to the market.
Proven recently that it is not true.

4. As a store of value?
This item is often mentioned. If something has (intrinsic) value, then why in the last few weeks the value halfed? Is any logical reason why? Nope, just a sentiment. What kind of value it is?
So, this cannot be considered as stored value.

5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.
Blockchain/crypto is already over 10y old, and no (really) useful application was born. Give it another 10y? 

6. Killing the planet for absolutely nothing back.
If e.g. someone invents effective food production that is not killing the planet, but uses a lot if electricity that would be fine with me.

All left is pure speculation. Cult like behaviours, religion, pump and dump etc. Fuelled by the mob greed.
If desired i could try to expand more the reasons for 1-6, if needed.

Sorry, i felt for a long time to give my voice on this.

maisymouser

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #722 on: January 24, 2022, 05:45:51 AM »
Trying to self answer since have not gotten much of responses to these important items.
Based on this thread and "other places".

Cryptos/blockchain values:

1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
Aka utility. There is i think already a wide consensus that this not happening. Almost no-one claims (anymore) in the last year that crypto's feature is utility.

2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
Proven recently that it is not true.

3. As AA not correlated to the market.
Proven recently that it is not true.

4. As a store of value?
This item is often mentioned. If something has (intrinsic) value, then why in the last few weeks the value halfed? Is any logical reason why? Nope, just a sentiment. What kind of value it is?
So, this cannot be considered as stored value.

5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.
Blockchain/crypto is already over 10y old, and no (really) useful application was born. Give it another 10y? 

6. Killing the planet for absolutely nothing back.
If e.g. someone invents effective food production that is not killing the planet, but uses a lot if electricity that would be fine with me.

All left is pure speculation. Cult like behaviours, religion, pump and dump etc. Fuelled by the mob greed.
If desired i could try to expand more the reasons for 1-6, if needed.

Sorry, i felt for a long time to give my voice on this.

Don't be sorry. That seems like a pretty apt summary to me.

talltexan

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #723 on: January 24, 2022, 06:03:00 AM »
I'll own that I've been building positions in crypto- (although they're probably smaller than they would be if I had not read the anti-crypto arguments in this thread).

And, dang, this period has been tough. Bear markets of this sort are what you sign on for when you participate. I banked a lot of gains during the run-up in early 2021, but this is really cutting into those.

vand

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #724 on: January 24, 2022, 06:08:52 AM »
I'm introducing a new meme:

HOFDL = Hold On For Dear Life

ChpBstrd

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #725 on: January 24, 2022, 06:27:07 AM »
Trying to self answer since have not gotten much of responses to these important items.
Based on this thread and "other places".

Cryptos/blockchain values:

1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
Aka utility. There is i think already a wide consensus that this not happening. Almost no-one claims (anymore) in the last year that crypto's feature is utility.

2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
Proven recently that it is not true.

3. As AA not correlated to the market.
Proven recently that it is not true.

4. As a store of value?
This item is often mentioned. If something has (intrinsic) value, then why in the last few weeks the value halfed? Is any logical reason why? Nope, just a sentiment. What kind of value it is?
So, this cannot be considered as stored value.

5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.
Blockchain/crypto is already over 10y old, and no (really) useful application was born. Give it another 10y? 

6. Killing the planet for absolutely nothing back.
If e.g. someone invents effective food production that is not killing the planet, but uses a lot if electricity that would be fine with me.

All left is pure speculation. Cult like behaviours, religion, pump and dump etc. Fuelled by the mob greed.
If desired i could try to expand more the reasons for 1-6, if needed.

Sorry, i felt for a long time to give my voice on this.

Don't be sorry. That seems like a pretty apt summary to me.

At some point, when an idea has been so thoroughly debunked that there's no saving people from themselves, the challenge becomes to package the refutations into as small and concise sentences as possible. This post is a contender for the parsimony award.

4tify

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #726 on: January 24, 2022, 11:08:12 AM »
I decided to add a low crypto allocation at the end of last year. Lol. Guess Iíll be sticking with vtsax!

erjkism

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #727 on: January 24, 2022, 12:13:20 PM »
I am even more excited for Bitcoin now than i was in 2017.  Bear markets are where I make the best financial decisions because that is when I buy.  That said, we have a lot more red candles in store before I start buying because I have a good idea of where this is headed eventually.  I don't even if this is the real bear yet, or just another instance of what we had 6 months ago.  I think the bull is tired but I thought it was tired 6 months ago as well and i was proven wrong then.

I've consistently said that an extended downturn was coming, that this cycle is no different, and that I was concerned for the people going all in on Alts because I predicted they would get rekted when the bear starts.  I've seen it happen before.  Anyways, I will start buying when Bitcoin is down 65% from its highs and I think it will probably go as low as 75%.  If it doesn't go that low; it doesn't happen, but I think it will.  As last time, I am confident that it will rebound.  But, if it doesn't, I never put in more than 5% salary into it on any given year.  It's worked out for me fabulously so far so heres to a repeat of 2018-2020!

I bought lottery tickets at the gas station for 2 years and it's worked out so I'm going to keep doing it.

Great strategy. And good use of those green soldiers you work so hard for.

Honestly can't wait til you all lose your shirts on this. It's not a solution for anything and is terrible for the environment.

This crash/bear market (like the 5th now at least?) we are entering is going to give no-coiners another chance to buy low, yet they are too stubborn and will miss out again and continue to complain. 
« Last Edit: January 24, 2022, 12:22:08 PM by erjkism »

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #728 on: January 24, 2022, 12:23:05 PM »
I am even more excited for Bitcoin now than i was in 2017.  Bear markets are where I make the best financial decisions because that is when I buy.  That said, we have a lot more red candles in store before I start buying because I have a good idea of where this is headed eventually.  I don't even if this is the real bear yet, or just another instance of what we had 6 months ago.  I think the bull is tired but I thought it was tired 6 months ago as well and i was proven wrong then.

I've consistently said that an extended downturn was coming, that this cycle is no different, and that I was concerned for the people going all in on Alts because I predicted they would get rekted when the bear starts.  I've seen it happen before.  Anyways, I will start buying when Bitcoin is down 65% from its highs and I think it will probably go as low as 75%.  If it doesn't go that low; it doesn't happen, but I think it will.  As last time, I am confident that it will rebound.  But, if it doesn't, I never put in more than 5% salary into it on any given year.  It's worked out for me fabulously so far so heres to a repeat of 2018-2020!

I bought lottery tickets at the gas station for 2 years and it's worked out so I'm going to keep doing it.

Great strategy. And good use of those green soldiers you work so hard for.

Honestly can't wait til you all lose your shirts on this. It's not a solution for anything and is terrible for the environment.

This crash/bear market (like the 5th now at least?) we are entering is going to give nocoiners have another chance to buy low, yet they are too stubborn and will miss out again and continue to complain.

There's also a chance to buy tulips and beanie babies low right now.  I'm too stubborn and will likely miss out on them again too.  Somehow life manages to go on.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2022, 12:29:36 PM by GuitarStv »

waltworks

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #729 on: January 24, 2022, 12:24:07 PM »
Complain about what? I'm freaking FI because I didn't go for any of the various sure-thing get rich quick crap over the years. I know an awful lot of crypto enthusiasts still working their day jobs...

-W

talltexan

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #730 on: January 24, 2022, 12:55:34 PM »
Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

Psychstache

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #731 on: January 24, 2022, 01:02:14 PM »
Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

Aren't we more accepting of a 3% drop than a 25% drop?

Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #732 on: January 24, 2022, 01:04:59 PM »
Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

No value to go up is called a faith.
Value going up is called a hope.

BeanCounter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #733 on: January 24, 2022, 01:14:00 PM »
Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

Aren't we more accepting of a 3% drop than a 25% drop?
Exactly. Iíve been chuckling along at this thread for awhile but that on takes the cake.

waltworks

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #734 on: January 24, 2022, 01:15:12 PM »
Suppose I own $2,000 in crypto, but I have $50,000 in $VTI. Over the last 24 hours, I'm down $500 on the crypto, and I'm down $1,500 on the VTI. Are we more accepting of the latter because of the 90+year track record of stocks making money?

No, I'm more accepting because the stocks are at least *mostly* companies that provide actual goods/services that create value even if the stock price drops. Obviously there are some crappy companies out there, but mostly they are worth *something* even if their stock price goes to zero. I can hold on and collect dividends/make a return regardless of what other investors think.

Not so much with BTC.

-W

erjkism

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #735 on: January 24, 2022, 02:07:22 PM »
I am even more excited for Bitcoin now than i was in 2017.  Bear markets are where I make the best financial decisions because that is when I buy.  That said, we have a lot more red candles in store before I start buying because I have a good idea of where this is headed eventually.  I don't even if this is the real bear yet, or just another instance of what we had 6 months ago.  I think the bull is tired but I thought it was tired 6 months ago as well and i was proven wrong then.

I've consistently said that an extended downturn was coming, that this cycle is no different, and that I was concerned for the people going all in on Alts because I predicted they would get rekted when the bear starts.  I've seen it happen before.  Anyways, I will start buying when Bitcoin is down 65% from its highs and I think it will probably go as low as 75%.  If it doesn't go that low; it doesn't happen, but I think it will.  As last time, I am confident that it will rebound.  But, if it doesn't, I never put in more than 5% salary into it on any given year.  It's worked out for me fabulously so far so heres to a repeat of 2018-2020!

I bought lottery tickets at the gas station for 2 years and it's worked out so I'm going to keep doing it.

Great strategy. And good use of those green soldiers you work so hard for.

Honestly can't wait til you all lose your shirts on this. It's not a solution for anything and is terrible for the environment.

This crash/bear market (like the 5th now at least?) we are entering is going to give nocoiners have another chance to buy low, yet they are too stubborn and will miss out again and continue to complain.

There's also a chance to buy tulips and beanie babies low right now.  I'm too stubborn and will likely miss out on them again too.  Somehow life manages to go on.

Yes because billionaires, investment firms, nation states, etc. were also buying into beanie babies and tulips. Enjoy missing out again.

waltworks

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #736 on: January 24, 2022, 02:28:15 PM »
Actually the 1600s equivalents of billionaires and hedge funds were definitely involved in the Tulip mania. Likewise the 2007 housing crash. Rich investors are just as dumb as everyone else when it comes right down to it.

-W

erjkism

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #737 on: January 24, 2022, 03:02:35 PM »
Complain about what? I'm freaking FI because I didn't go for any of the various sure-thing get rich quick crap over the years. I know an awful lot of crypto enthusiasts still working their day jobs...

-W

Sorry I didn't mean to say you specifically were complaining about it. In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

And tulip buying was not nearly as widespread as cryptocurrency is today. I don't think the two are really comparable at this point. They psychological similarities might hold true to bitcoin in the early days or newer cryptocurrencies, but the industry has advanced a lot. 

per wikipedia on tulip mania: While Mackay's account held that a wide array of society was involved in the tulip trade, Goldgar's study of archived contracts found that even at its peak the trade in tulips was conducted almost exclusively by merchants and skilled craftsmen who were wealthy, but not members of the nobility.[58] Any economic fallout from the bubble was very limited. Goldgar, who identified many prominent buyers and sellers in the market, found fewer than half a dozen who experienced financial troubles in the time period, and even of these cases it is not clear that tulips were to blame

solon

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #738 on: January 24, 2022, 05:10:04 PM »
Complain about what? I'm freaking FI because I didn't go for any of the various sure-thing get rich quick crap over the years. I know an awful lot of crypto enthusiasts still working their day jobs...

-W

Sorry I didn't mean to say you specifically were complaining about it. In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

And tulip buying was not nearly as widespread as cryptocurrency is today. I don't think the two are really comparable at this point. They psychological similarities might hold true to bitcoin in the early days or newer cryptocurrencies, but the industry has advanced a lot. 

per wikipedia on tulip mania: While Mackay's account held that a wide array of society was involved in the tulip trade, Goldgar's study of archived contracts found that even at its peak the trade in tulips was conducted almost exclusively by merchants and skilled craftsmen who were wealthy, but not members of the nobility.[58] Any economic fallout from the bubble was very limited. Goldgar, who identified many prominent buyers and sellers in the market, found fewer than half a dozen who experienced financial troubles in the time period, and even of these cases it is not clear that tulips were to blame

This is really weird. People with wealth are definitely not complaining about the "wealth" of crypto traders. We pity them because they have no wealth. That's why we lump them in the same category as tulip traders.

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #739 on: January 24, 2022, 05:17:10 PM »
Complain about what? I'm freaking FI because I didn't go for any of the various sure-thing get rich quick crap over the years. I know an awful lot of crypto enthusiasts still working their day jobs...

-W

Sorry I didn't mean to say you specifically were complaining about it. In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

And tulip buying was not nearly as widespread as cryptocurrency is today. I don't think the two are really comparable at this point. They psychological similarities might hold true to bitcoin in the early days or newer cryptocurrencies, but the industry has advanced a lot. 

per wikipedia on tulip mania: While Mackay's account held that a wide array of society was involved in the tulip trade, Goldgar's study of archived contracts found that even at its peak the trade in tulips was conducted almost exclusively by merchants and skilled craftsmen who were wealthy, but not members of the nobility.[58] Any economic fallout from the bubble was very limited. Goldgar, who identified many prominent buyers and sellers in the market, found fewer than half a dozen who experienced financial troubles in the time period, and even of these cases it is not clear that tulips were to blame

This is really weird. People with wealth are definitely not complaining about the "wealth" of crypto traders. We pity them because they have no wealth. That's why we lump them in the same category as tulip traders.

Yeah, really weird way to see things.  I don't care how you make your wealth.

There are people out there who were able to sell their bottled farts and make 50k a year.  More power to 'em.  But I'm going to take every chance to point out that the emperor has no clothes . . . and that failing to bottle your own farts for sale is not likely to lose you much in the long run.

Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #740 on: January 24, 2022, 05:45:53 PM »
@erjkism You might be referring to me too.

In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

Well, I still have active income, FI @2.5% (at least before the drop, have not checked the balance for a week or so, no reason :)). Holding only quality index ETFs.
I mentioned yesterday that if i would be jealous i would buy crypto on this drop (would be good entry point, right?), gave my reason why not.

Believe me, more weird is for the crypto holders (no value) to HODL, than no crypto guys not buying crypto. Non crypto guys just want to help you (not resent you), and save the planet.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2022, 05:50:44 PM by ArnoldK »

Blender Bender

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #741 on: January 24, 2022, 08:07:40 PM »

Telecaster

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #742 on: January 24, 2022, 10:31:10 PM »
Sorry I didn't mean to say you specifically were complaining about it. In my personal life it just seems like the people who never bought crypto complain about the wealth other people have made from it. These people seem to just have a lot of resentment and want the entire crypto market to collapse so they don't feel dumb/jealous.

And tulip buying was not nearly as widespread as cryptocurrency is today. I don't think the two are really comparable at this point. They psychological similarities might hold true to bitcoin in the early days or newer cryptocurrencies, but the industry has advanced a lot. 

per wikipedia on tulip mania: While Mackay's account held that a wide array of society was involved in the tulip trade, Goldgar's study of archived contracts found that even at its peak the trade in tulips was conducted almost exclusively by merchants and skilled craftsmen who were wealthy, but not members of the nobility.[58] Any economic fallout from the bubble was very limited. Goldgar, who identified many prominent buyers and sellers in the market, found fewer than half a dozen who experienced financial troubles in the time period, and even of these cases it is not clear that tulips were to blame

The Tulip Bulb comment is just a metaphor.   I don't like using that metaphor because it sounds pejorative, and that's not a good way to have a conversation. 

That said, when you boil it down Bitcoin's price is based on the number of people who want to own it.  If more people want to own in the future, the price will go up.  If not, the price will go down. 

So what's the case that more people want to own Bitcoin in the future?  It isn't because it works well for transactions.  It isn't because it is a store of value. 




talltexan

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #743 on: January 25, 2022, 09:00:06 AM »
Bitcoin Booster: I'm a millionaire because of this incredible stake in Bitcoin I've built.
Me: At today's prices, you are a millionaire, but your crypto stake could easily be worth only $500,000 48 hours from now.
Bitcoin Booster: Why don't you appreciate how smart I was to buy this stuff three years ago?
Me: ???

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #744 on: January 25, 2022, 11:34:40 AM »
Hi @LateStarter
By adoption you mean some institutions just feeling FOMO that others making $, pardon the lang, on fools? These institution only "adopt" to make money on the suckers. They are not committing themselves (ignoring things like COIN, SQUARE, BLOCK, these are more sophisticated in the game of screwing others, garbing as much $ as possible from the mob). Or you mean San Salvador, healthy economy matching Swiss?
:)

Hi ArnoldK
By 'adoption', I mean wider adoption by all categories - individuals, institutions, states, etc. etc. etc.
Do you have a thorough knowledge of the motives and operations / trades of all these institutions ? Or are you just guessing / assuming ?

The hard fact is that none of us know everything that's going on and none of us know how things will progress. Some of us think it has great potential. Some of us think it's all terrible and is doomed to failure. That's all fine - vive la difference.
Some claim to know that it's all terrible and will definitely fail. As I said, I am challenging that certainty.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #745 on: January 25, 2022, 11:55:36 AM »
Is it me or does every crypto zealot sound like the have some kind of persecution complex?  They all seem to repeat "Everyone is against us, we will overcome, drink the Kool-Aide and join us".  Cults always end the same way. 

I only know a few people who dabbled in crypto along with myself in 2016-2017 and never had more than vacation money in this.  Everyone I know has made money, but not one believes this will change anything in the future.  It's also still not a legitimate trading vehicle for anything otherwise there wouldn't be a 33% discount from BTC to GBTC.  One price has to be fake, either one that trades on regulated exchanges or one that trades in 3rd world servers?   

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #746 on: January 25, 2022, 11:58:05 AM »
Trying to self answer since have not gotten much of responses to these important items.
Based on this thread and "other places".

Cryptos/blockchain values:

1. As a currency (superior to fiat USD).
Aka utility. There is i think already a wide consensus that this not happening. Almost no-one claims (anymore) in the last year that crypto's feature is utility.

2. As an inflation hedge (against legacy fiat).
Proven recently that it is not true.

3. As AA not correlated to the market.
Proven recently that it is not true.

4. As a store of value?
This item is often mentioned. If something has (intrinsic) value, then why in the last few weeks the value halfed? Is any logical reason why? Nope, just a sentiment. What kind of value it is?
So, this cannot be considered as stored value.

5. As an amazing tech changing our lives.
Blockchain/crypto is already over 10y old, and no (really) useful application was born. Give it another 10y? 

6. Killing the planet for absolutely nothing back.
If e.g. someone invents effective food production that is not killing the planet, but uses a lot if electricity that would be fine with me.

All left is pure speculation. Cult like behaviours, religion, pump and dump etc. Fuelled by the mob greed.
If desired i could try to expand more the reasons for 1-6, if needed.

Sorry, i felt for a long time to give my voice on this.

Don't be sorry. That seems like a pretty apt summary to me.

At some point, when an idea has been so thoroughly debunked that there's no saving people from themselves, the challenge becomes to package the refutations into as small and concise sentences as possible. This post is a contender for the parsimony award.

The key word to add to most of these points is YET. Why would you presume to know that it's all done with ?

The game isn't over YET.
My view is that the game is only just beginning.
Most here think it's all over bar the shouting (and should never have started in the first place!).

Either way, it's clearly not finished YET - to the tune of $700billion for BTC. It's premature to think it's all over.

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #747 on: January 25, 2022, 12:06:22 PM »
Exactly how I feel about tulips.  I'll admit - there has been a bit of a lull since the 17th century . . . but in the Netherlands alone, 220 million euros of tulips were exported in 2020.  That's a LOT MORE euros (100% by my math) than were spent during the HEIGHT of tulip mania!

The game isn't over YET.
It's only just the beginning.
Don't prematurely judge tulips as down and out.


We've only started to scratch the potential of flower chain technologies:



#HODL HORTICULTURE 4EVA
« Last Edit: January 25, 2022, 12:09:58 PM by GuitarStv »

beee

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #748 on: January 25, 2022, 12:46:05 PM »
Quote
to the tune of $700billion for BTC

Could you please correct me if I am wrong?
As I understand, the market cap is calculated based on the current price only.
So
there're 100 coins of currency A
current price is $1/coin, market cap $100
99 coins are traded $1/coin
then price changes to $1,000/coin, but only 1 coin is traded
but the market cap is now $100,000, even though $100k were not used ever in trading of currency A

Am I right?

talltexan

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #749 on: January 25, 2022, 12:52:41 PM »
I suppose you're correct, but a market has bid/asks, so that trade at $1,000 meant that there were people offering $995/coin who couldn't find a seller.