Author Topic: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock  (Read 5903 times)

Chris Pascale

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Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« on: March 18, 2023, 04:14:18 PM »
Not making a recommendation; just sharing.

Fannie Mae (FNMA) shares are about 40 cents right now. Last year I started putting a few hundred per teaching paycheck into shares and have about 9,000. Currently down 23%.

If FNMA never shuts down, it stands to reason at some point it'll do well, or institutional investors will use it to churn their billions into more billions. As an adjunct I'll get 14-16 paychecks this year, so might just be tossing $4,200-4,800 into a dumpster fire.

If anyone has any thoughts to share, feel free.

nouseforausername

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2023, 01:14:46 PM »
Eh, there's now common law telling you that Treasury can take FNMA's earnings right out of your shareholding hands.

But, who care argue against hopes of a return to a whole dollar share price one of these years.

nouseforausername

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2023, 01:29:10 PM »
*who can argue against. 

Oops. Best of luck.

roomtempmayo

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2023, 12:20:15 PM »
There's more "there" there than most growth stocks, and the potential upside is huge if you buy in at 40 cents.  10x seems very likely, and 100x very possible eventually.

But, of course, it's been down for 15 years, and there's nothing to say it couldn't stay down for another 15.

Chris Pascale

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2023, 10:45:12 AM »
On Thursday, I said to friends, "I look like a real genius here, but we'll see how it really goes."

Like with all things, we'll see what really happens.

I'm going to keep putting $300 per teaching paycheck into it.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2023, 09:37:17 AM »
It's definitely a lotto ticket, except we can only guess at the possible payout odds. Are you investing a large (>5%) chunk of your investments into speculative assets like this one?

Chris Pascale

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2023, 05:05:22 PM »
It's definitely a lotto ticket, except we can only guess at the possible payout odds. Are you investing a large (>5%) chunk of your investments into speculative assets like this one?

I didn't think of it as a large percentage, but your 5% note makes me realize it is.

$300 of every teaching paycheck (get about 14-16 a year) since last Summer has gone into it.

Not including my wife's retirement contributions, in the last 12 months I've invested about $35,000, about about 14% went into a crazy scheme.

ETA: This is my only current crazy scheme. I sometimes have others, but they usually only get my time, not much money.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2023, 10:56:14 AM »
Well, don't let me talk you out of gambling. I've argued diversification with people who were 100% Apple stock in 2013, called Bitcoin a stupid con in 2016, and once bought a put option on Netflix in 2011! I'm kinda a curmudgeon.

If FNMM and FMCC shares really have 10x to 20x upside as some people say, and only 100% downside, then they're a lot more rational than lotto tickets. Plus, if you think there is any chance at all of Donald Trump getting re-elected, or even if you want to hedge the possibility, a small allocation to these shares make sense. You can bet DT and his buddies own shares.*

If $35k could go 10x or 15x, that could be an early retirement checkmate. Maybe just invest until you have a life-changing upside potential, and then focus on building a diversified portfolio while you wait for your outcome.

*

Chris Pascale

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #8 on: August 25, 2023, 08:10:14 AM »
$35,000 will be my total investing this year - mostly into the TSP, a 403(b) and a Roth.

My current FNMA investment is about $6k and I have over 12k shares.

Chris Pascale

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2023, 11:45:10 AM »
Another profitable Q for Fannie Mae. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FEDERAL-NATIONAL-MORTGAGE-120786975/news/Fannie-Mae-Reports-Net-Income-of-4-7-Billion-for-Third-Quarter-2023-45196881/

An argument against investing is that the Fed Gov't won't release the conservatorship. However, we have so many [wise investors] in the House and Senate, and they might surely see the rightness of freeing up this wonderful business from the shackles of tyranny that lay it down upon the cold cold ground.

Be free, FNMA! Be free!

ChpBstrd

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2023, 12:05:23 PM »
Well it's almost doubled since the OP, now FNMA is $0.75.

I could see Fannie and Freddy being auctioned off as a deficit reduction measure to resolve the debt ceiling. However, Democrats might fear this move would crash the housing market or send mortgages skyrocketing (or be blamed even if those things happened anyway) under Biden's watch.

Chris Pascale

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2023, 09:50:43 AM »
Well it's almost doubled since the OP, now FNMA is $0.75.

I could see Fannie and Freddy being auctioned off as a deficit reduction measure to resolve the debt ceiling. However, Democrats might fear this move would crash the housing market or send mortgages skyrocketing (or be blamed even if those things happened anyway) under Biden's watch.

Yep, and that's why I have to keep reminding myself that it's completely out of my hands.

An old thread on another forum had a guy saying (5+ years ago) how he was totally going to get rich very soon with Fannie Mae. Everyone was like 'dude, don't get crazy,' and he responded with "That's it! I'm all in."

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2023, 09:59:25 AM »
Well it's almost doubled since the OP, now FNMA is $0.75.

I could see Fannie and Freddy being auctioned off as a deficit reduction measure to resolve the debt ceiling. However, Democrats might fear this move would crash the housing market or send mortgages skyrocketing (or be blamed even if those things happened anyway) under Biden's watch.
Yep, and that's why I have to keep reminding myself that it's completely out of my hands.

An old thread on another forum had a guy saying (5+ years ago) how he was totally going to get rich very soon with Fannie Mae. Everyone was like 'dude, don't get crazy,' and he responded with "That's it! I'm all in."
How do you plan for this story to end?

If you sell now, you have bragging rights on doubling a small investment.  Most people aren't going to look up the current stock price, so even if you experience FOMO others will not know about it.

If you wait, you could have FOMO over not selling now, and you could lose the existing profits.  Or the stock could keep rising, and the story could get better.

I'm not the one investing in it, so I don't know enough to have an opinion.  Just encouraging you to have a plan.

Chris Pascale

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2023, 02:02:08 PM »
Well it's almost doubled since the OP, now FNMA is $0.75.

I could see Fannie and Freddy being auctioned off as a deficit reduction measure to resolve the debt ceiling. However, Democrats might fear this move would crash the housing market or send mortgages skyrocketing (or be blamed even if those things happened anyway) under Biden's watch.
Yep, and that's why I have to keep reminding myself that it's completely out of my hands.

An old thread on another forum had a guy saying (5+ years ago) how he was totally going to get rich very soon with Fannie Mae. Everyone was like 'dude, don't get crazy,' and he responded with "That's it! I'm all in."
How do you plan for this story to end?

Like all stories do - in a body bag.

Current price per share is $0.51
Holdings are 13.7k shares


Right now, I'm just watching. My mentality will change as my holdings change. If it goes to a penny, I'll feel as bad as anyone would for having put $7,000 (current investment) into a dumpster full of gasoline that meets a long-overdue match. If it goes to $2 or $3, I might be a lot less aloof.

What may help me hang in there beyond doubling or tripling my money is that I'd bought Netflix shares in 2004 and sold them like a week later. In 2007-ish I was offered to buy into the Naked juice company for $10,000, and didn't feel like I could.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2023, 09:19:27 PM by Chris Pascale »

LightStache

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #14 on: December 26, 2023, 10:02:59 AM »
How's your mentality changing today? ;)

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #15 on: December 26, 2023, 11:50:40 AM »
How's your mentality changing today? ;)

Looks like you have a "double".  If you sold half now, you have 'riskless upside'.   Might change the psychology as the stock gyrates from here...

LightStache

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2023, 07:42:30 PM »
That big pop was a bit fleeting ... @Chris Pascale why'd you chose just FNMA and not FMCC?

WayDownSouth

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2023, 08:53:03 PM »
Oh man.... This has played out for you very well in your gamble. My best advice is take your winnings NOW. Maybe wait until there's another quick spike and sell at the peak. I don't want to be the bringer of bad news but I think you're going to be in for a near-total loss if you stay in this.

I'm not a financial advisor and you're free to do as you please. I don't think you're dumb and clearly you have your own reasons, but this would be a big no-go for me even as a gamble. I think you got lucky, should be proud, and should pull it, for what it's worth.

LightStache

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2023, 10:42:27 PM »
Oh man.... This has played out for you very well in your gamble. My best advice is take your winnings NOW. Maybe wait until there's another quick spike and sell at the peak. I don't want to be the bringer of bad news but I think you're going to be in for a near-total loss if you stay in this.

I'm not a financial advisor and you're free to do as you please. I don't think you're dumb and clearly you have your own reasons, but this would be a big no-go for me even as a gamble. I think you got lucky, should be proud, and should pull it, for what it's worth.

Can you elaborate why? Do you think the GSEs are going to stay in conservatorship forever or they lose market share or something else?




WayDownSouth

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2023, 04:57:20 PM »
Oh man.... This has played out for you very well in your gamble. My best advice is take your winnings NOW. Maybe wait until there's another quick spike and sell at the peak. I don't want to be the bringer of bad news but I think you're going to be in for a near-total loss if you stay in this.

I'm not a financial advisor and you're free to do as you please. I don't think you're dumb and clearly you have your own reasons, but this would be a big no-go for me even as a gamble. I think you got lucky, should be proud, and should pull it, for what it's worth.

Can you elaborate why? Do you think the GSEs are going to stay in conservatorship forever or they lose market share or something else?

Main problem being I predict housing prices will inflate in 2024 and another big problem is returns go to gov not shareholders. It's a pink-sheet stock for a reason, and that alone doesn't mean shit but..... I feel like a have a good idea why OP said it's a huge gamble - because IT IS. I think he's investing WAYYYY too much ($300 per paycheck?).

There are many other penny/dollar stocks that he could do far better on. I'd consider the gamble over, pull it, take winnings and invest in something that delivers quicker and higher returns in less time.

There's many more profound factors here that I could pick apart regarding this stock but it's not my investment. I'm just saying on this one, take what you made and never look at it again. He could hold it for a few years and do really well, but he could do even better in 3 months or even 30 days with same amount in a different stock.

OP knows what he's doing and it's his choice but there are much easier ways to double his current gains on much more sane stocks.

BTW I don't read too much into GSEs in general but any pink sheet without stockholders especially when managed by gov and involving the housing market.... It's not even a red flag it's like a triple-X red flag with a big black skull on it.

Also I don't see anything here worth being curious about, it's a lump of coal in my opinion. Totally aware that OP already stated the same, more or less. If it weren't a government proceeds type deal, I wouldn't even have bothered posting (although my sentiment about the investment would generally be the same).

Chris Pascale

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2023, 12:41:25 AM »
Tuesday, I spent the day hanging with my 2nd daughter after she had her wisdom teeth out, so didn't see the share price until after. Wednesday, I was driving to Boston with my younger 2 for an overnight getaway (a Ben & Jerry's cone in Harvard Square is about the price of tuition). When it closed at $0.90, I was up 11 cents (almost 14%) from my last buy, which I was happy about.

I only have 15,800 shares, so a penny moves my position $158. Current gain is about 78%. I cannot say how I'd be feeling if this was 150,000 shares or 1,000,000, but right now I mostly feel neutral. I'm happy to be up, but uninspired to do much more than watch/wait.

@LightStache, to answer why FNMA instead of FMCC: No reason. They seem the same to me, which may speak to how little I know about what I'm doing. After all, they are supposedly 2 entities, so why not go evenly into them in the event 1 lasts and the other doesn't?

@WayDownSouth, you are helping me think about when I should take my money back, plus some. I've had a sell order in at $10 from the beginning in case it spikes and I'm not around. However, what is the price at which I will not buy any more? At that point, why not take a gain? I mean, if it's too expensive to buy more, it's too expensive not to cash out.

LightStache

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2023, 04:58:46 AM »
Interesting, obviously this is a years-long play that's entirely dependent upon them exiting conservatorship and, to a lesser extent, if/how the Treasury offramps its stake.

Federal law expects exits (i.e. assumes the conservatorships are temporary), but doesn't specify a timeline, which has blown way past anyone's expectations when this all went down in 2008. The current regulatory plans and financial activities of both GSEs, retaining earnings since 2019, are on a path to exit once that year's regulatory reserve requirements are met. According to my rough math, that could be as soon as 2028, around the 20th anniversary of the conservatorships. It could be sooner because those reserve requirements may have been set arbitrarily high for political reasons, so might be lowered in the future, meaning a faster exit. I'd expect significant movement if a Republican wins POTUS '24.

On the other hand, executive agencies love power and I could see FHFA HODLing. If there's another catastrophe, it would be pretty easy for Congress to make the arrangement permanent, wiping out all publicly-traded stock. Or FHFA moves the goalposts father down, undermining investor confidence with the same effect.

But these companies are kicking off a massive $9B/yr in earnings. If they were fully public today with a 15x P/E, FNMA would be at $37.90 and FMCC at $43.54.

That's the reason I asked about your choice between FNMA and FMCC, because FMCC has a higher fair value based on this theoretical EPS. I suspect FMCC trades at a lower market cap because its top line revenue is significantly lower.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2023, 11:07:10 AM »
I'd expect significant movement if a Republican wins POTUS '24.
Yea I’m thinking this is the angle. Trump promised to privatize these companies but never got around to it.

The objection is that if Fannie/Freddie were fully privatized, the US government would have to fill a $9B hole or increase the budget deficit. The political difficulty of either option suggests that only a politician with an extreme lack of care about either tax hikes or the national debt could do it. Trump doesn’t care about the deficit, as evidenced by his first term.

But I suspect privatization of Fannie and Freddie would look a lot like the privatization of state owned enterprises in Russia during the 90’s. I.e. insiders buy up shares at pennies on the dollar right before the government divests itself, and hence the political class pays back the oligarchy for its support. I wonder if Trump’s insiders and associates are loading up on shares in anticipation of a favorable giveaway. This scenario is a lot less hypothetical than a lot of blue chip companies’ growth models.

Note that investing in this scenario also has a hedging function. A fully private mortgage industry would charge rates much higher than what Americans currently enjoy, and 30Y fixed rate loans could go away, since they are merely products of a subsidy. Shorter loans and higher rates could depress home values. Imagine 5 or 10 year loans at 7% or 8% being the lowest payment financing option.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2023, 11:23:19 AM »
Tuesday, I spent the day hanging with my 2nd daughter after she had her wisdom teeth out, so didn't see the share price until after. Wednesday, I was driving to Boston with my younger 2 for an overnight getaway (a Ben & Jerry's cone in Harvard Square is about the price of tuition). When it closed at $0.90, I was up 11 cents (almost 14%) from my last buy, which I was happy about.

I only have 15,800 shares, so a penny moves my position $158. Current gain is about 78%. I cannot say how I'd be feeling if this was 150,000 shares or 1,000,000, but right now I mostly feel neutral. I'm happy to be up, but uninspired to do much more than watch/wait.

@LightStache, to answer why FNMA instead of FMCC: No reason. They seem the same to me, which may speak to how little I know about what I'm doing. After all, they are supposedly 2 entities, so why not go evenly into them in the event 1 lasts and the other doesn't?

@WayDownSouth, you are helping me think about when I should take my money back, plus some. I've had a sell order in at $10 from the beginning in case it spikes and I'm not around. However, what is the price at which I will not buy any more? At that point, why not take a gain? I mean, if it's too expensive to buy more, it's too expensive not to cash out.

In that case if I were you I'd determine what that value is where you won't buy anymore. I suspect you're getting close? It looks to me like it's going to see a spike to $1.25 - $1.40 soon - I'd personally set a sell order for 50% of your shares at that point, then set another sell order for $2.50 (10%), and another for $10 (40% of your remaining shares just in case it does a supernove up to $10 for some odd reason. You could play with those percentages as you'd like to, but $158 gain per penny is good and if your last percentage value increase was 14%, I wouldn't buy much more.

Good luck, man. It will be interesting to see what happens with that stock for sure but don't forget there's 1,000 more just like it to dabble with. If you're truly comfortable than stick with it but try to focus more on the % than the $... This is the trick to not losing often for me at least and I've got around 80% win / 20% loss record historically intraday trading these exact kinds of stocks (although rarely swing trading anything - I get too anxious so I prefer to invest heavy, buy & sell very quick when they're volatile).

LightStache

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2023, 09:00:33 PM »
I'd expect significant movement if a Republican wins POTUS '24.
Yea I’m thinking this is the angle. Trump promised to privatize these companies but never got around to it.

The objection is that if Fannie/Freddie were fully privatized, the US government would have to fill a $9B hole or increase the budget deficit. The political difficulty of either option suggests that only a politician with an extreme lack of care about either tax hikes or the national debt could do it. Trump doesn’t care about the deficit, as evidenced by his first term.

But I suspect privatization of Fannie and Freddie would look a lot like the privatization of state owned enterprises in Russia during the 90’s. I.e. insiders buy up shares at pennies on the dollar right before the government divests itself, and hence the political class pays back the oligarchy for its support. I wonder if Trump’s insiders and associates are loading up on shares in anticipation of a favorable giveaway. This scenario is a lot less hypothetical than a lot of blue chip companies’ growth models.

Note that investing in this scenario also has a hedging function. A fully private mortgage industry would charge rates much higher than what Americans currently enjoy, and 30Y fixed rate loans could go away, since they are merely products of a subsidy. Shorter loans and higher rates could depress home values. Imagine 5 or 10 year loans at 7% or 8% being the lowest payment financing option.

I appreciate your comments! For the last few years earnings have been retained by the GSEs, not paid out to the Treasury. Under the current agreements (Dec 2020), Treasury's liquidation preference increases by the cumulative amount of retained earnings. Once the GSEs have retained enough to meet their regulatory capital requirements, then Treasury payments resume and to-be-determined commitment fees start.

That means upon exit Treasury would make bank with its liquidation preference and warrants, putting a little dent in the annual budget deficit and a miniscule dent in the debt. Regardless, if an exit is done through regulation and not legislation, I doubt budget impacts will be a driving consideration.

In theory the Treasury commitment fee will remain post-exit, allowing the GSEs to retain their sovereign debt ratings and maintain the status quo in the residential mortgage markets.

So in theory there's a viable exit plan under the current framework. As we've seen though, the PSPAs can easily be amended, so the massive risk here is just politics.

franklin4

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #25 on: January 23, 2024, 07:37:22 PM »
Not much to add besides noting that FNMA is up to 1.35 with some high volumes. Apparently some feel FNMA's prospects of being released are better with a Trump return and the big increase is at least partly due to his resurgence.

For now I'm glad I established a position after seeing this thread, so thanks original poster! Who knows what the future holds though...

WayDownSouth

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #26 on: January 23, 2024, 08:03:26 PM »
Tuesday, I spent the day hanging with my 2nd daughter after she had her wisdom teeth out, so didn't see the share price until after. Wednesday, I was driving to Boston with my younger 2 for an overnight getaway (a Ben & Jerry's cone in Harvard Square is about the price of tuition). When it closed at $0.90, I was up 11 cents (almost 14%) from my last buy, which I was happy about.

I only have 15,800 shares, so a penny moves my position $158. Current gain is about 78%. I cannot say how I'd be feeling if this was 150,000 shares or 1,000,000, but right now I mostly feel neutral. I'm happy to be up, but uninspired to do much more than watch/wait.

@LightStache, to answer why FNMA instead of FMCC: No reason. They seem the same to me, which may speak to how little I know about what I'm doing. After all, they are supposedly 2 entities, so why not go evenly into them in the event 1 lasts and the other doesn't?

@WayDownSouth, you are helping me think about when I should take my money back, plus some. I've had a sell order in at $10 from the beginning in case it spikes and I'm not around. However, what is the price at which I will not buy any more? At that point, why not take a gain? I mean, if it's too expensive to buy more, it's too expensive not to cash out.

In that case if I were you I'd determine what that value is where you won't buy anymore. I suspect you're getting close? It looks to me like it's going to see a spike to $1.25 - $1.40 soon - I'd personally set a sell order for 50% of your shares at that point, then set another sell order for $2.50 (10%), and another for $10 (40% of your remaining shares just in case it does a supernove up to $10 for some odd reason. You could play with those percentages as you'd like to, but $158 gain per penny is good and if your last percentage value increase was 14%, I wouldn't buy much more.

Good luck, man. It will be interesting to see what happens with that stock for sure but don't forget there's 1,000 more just like it to dabble with. If you're truly comfortable than stick with it but try to focus more on the % than the $... This is the trick to not losing often for me at least and I've got around 80% win / 20% loss record historically intraday trading these exact kinds of stocks (although rarely swing trading anything - I get too anxious so I prefer to invest heavy, buy & sell very quick when they're volatile).

@LightStache as I mentioned above, the spike up happened and you saw mid $1.40's today. I don't know where you're at on this, but I'd get rid of a little bit of that soon - regardless of if you follow my percentage recommendations above or not (you probably shouldn't because you should always take your own moves when making your own investments), however, consider where it's at right now and how far you've came.

You stand to put your self in a point where you can sell some to secure initial investment and stand with a good amount.

Next stop for this stock is unknown to me because I haven't recharted it since my message above but the advice on dumping some of it is still sound. If you don't you may make more - but if you don't you also may lose. Making a "safety sale" and taking profits is never wrong. Figure out your own math and make a move is my advice. I'll see if I have time to revisit it in the next day or two and provide my input for whatever it's worth.

Good luck, either way.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #27 on: January 24, 2024, 08:03:04 AM »
IDK, I suspect the rally will continue. Trump has more favorable opinion polling according to 538, and has structural advantages in the electoral college. This is a trade similar to DWAC and it could rally for a while.

Now at $1.45. Might buy a couple thousand just for fun.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #28 on: January 24, 2024, 05:12:40 PM »
IDK, I suspect the rally will continue. Trump has more favorable opinion polling according to 538, and has structural advantages in the electoral college. This is a trade similar to DWAC and it could rally for a while.

Now at $1.45. Might buy a couple thousand just for fun.

I also suspect it will too but for how long and how high? If he can sell 50% or less with solid realized gains and hold the rest, his remaining holdings are literally free. That's how you win and keep winning without gambling. IMO... Never ever ever ever wrong to pull profits especially if it leaves you with a free chunk to hold. Just my 2 cents.

However, Cheap Bastard, I do not really think public politics is going to have much influence on the result. I think it's more of the result of several market catalysts most of which are going to be (or already are) manipulated heavily.

This is truly an interesting one to watch.

LightStache

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #29 on: January 26, 2024, 08:37:43 AM »
IDK, I suspect the rally will continue. Trump has more favorable opinion polling according to 538, and has structural advantages in the electoral college. This is a trade similar to DWAC and it could rally for a while.

Now at $1.45. Might buy a couple thousand just for fun.

Did you buy at $1.45 and cause this dip? :P

I don't like the most recent Bloomberg article characterizing Fannie and Freddie as "meme-like" Trump plays. They're two of the most profitable companies on the planet, other end of the spectrum from GME or AMC.

Of course if FNMA and FMCC run up to $50 that'd be an amazing exit opportunity. My concern is that they become known solely as a Trump trade, run up to $10 before the election, then crash if Trump loses. Instability will make Treasury and FHFA more cautious about release.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2024, 11:37:37 AM »
Did you buy at $1.45 and cause this dip? :P
Guilty. I had about $400 in spare dividend cash sitting around and thought "I'll let it ride". Follow me for more shorting opportunities. :P
Quote
I don't like the most recent Bloomberg article characterizing Fannie and Freddie as "meme-like" Trump plays. They're two of the most profitable companies on the planet, other end of the spectrum from GME or AMC.

Of course if FNMA and FMCC run up to $50 that'd be an amazing exit opportunity. My concern is that they become known solely as a Trump trade, run up to $10 before the election, then crash if Trump loses. Instability will make Treasury and FHFA more cautious about release.
I think the play is to hold Fannie and Freddie until just before the election and sell the rumor. It's a 50/50 election right now, but the prices of these stocks do not fully reflect a 50% chance, or even a 20% chance, of privatization. As the odds improve, selling opportunities can be expected to emerge. I think selling the government's controlling shares in these entities offer Trump (or Haley, honestly) a good gimmick to "pay for" more tax cuts, and so they may be mentioned further down the campaign trail. The more he talks them up, the more tax cuts can be justified by the idea of selling the shares.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2024, 12:39:59 PM »
Did you buy at $1.45 and cause this dip? :P
Guilty. I had about $400 in spare dividend cash sitting around and thought "I'll let it ride". Follow me for more shorting opportunities. :P
Quote
I don't like the most recent Bloomberg article characterizing Fannie and Freddie as "meme-like" Trump plays. They're two of the most profitable companies on the planet, other end of the spectrum from GME or AMC.

Of course if FNMA and FMCC run up to $50 that'd be an amazing exit opportunity. My concern is that they become known solely as a Trump trade, run up to $10 before the election, then crash if Trump loses. Instability will make Treasury and FHFA more cautious about release.
I think the play is to hold Fannie and Freddie until just before the election and sell the rumor. It's a 50/50 election right now, but the prices of these stocks do not fully reflect a 50% chance, or even a 20% chance, of privatization. As the odds improve, selling opportunities can be expected to emerge. I think selling the government's controlling shares in these entities offer Trump (or Haley, honestly) a good gimmick to "pay for" more tax cuts, and so they may be mentioned further down the campaign trail. The more he talks them up, the more tax cuts can be justified by the idea of selling the shares.

My most recent buy was about that, but I decided to finally make a Freddie Mac purchase instead, and may do that with the coming checks this semester.

Regarding outlook: I'm not sure if this can even be compared, but Fannie Mae will likely post 2023 profits around $15 billion+, and Netflix has $5.4 billion for 2023. The latter trades at over $500/share with about 1/3 of the shares. Since we live in a perfect world where things only make sense, Fannie Mae should be $500 right now.*

*For those who are about to say or Netflix should be $1.00, I have already plugged my ears and began yelling, so can't hear you.

I have a sell order to take my money back at $2.00 - 4,400 shares - and if it went nothing but up after that, I'd need a Gamestop-like frenzy to not sell some shares at $10, $20, etc.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2024, 03:08:36 PM »
Regarding outlook: I'm not sure if this can even be compared, but Fannie Mae will likely post 2023 profits around $15 billion+, and Netflix has $5.4 billion for 2023. The latter trades at over $500/share with about 1/3 of the shares. Since we live in a perfect world where things only make sense, Fannie Mae should be $500 right now.

I don't think that math works. FNMA has 5.9B fully diluted shares compared to 444M for NFLX, so NFLX has 92% fewer shares, not 1/3.

If you take $15B of theoretical earnings and divide by 5.9B shares, you get an EPS of 2.54. Multiplied by a 12x P/E ratio (same as NFLX) you get $30 per share.

...not that traditional valuation matters much at this point

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #33 on: January 26, 2024, 06:13:54 PM »
Regarding outlook: I'm not sure if this can even be compared, but Fannie Mae will likely post 2023 profits around $15 billion+, and Netflix has $5.4 billion for 2023. The latter trades at over $500/share with about 1/3 of the shares. Since we live in a perfect world where things only make sense, Fannie Mae should be $500 right now.

I don't think that math works. FNMA has 5.9B fully diluted shares compared to 444M for NFLX, so NFLX has 92% fewer shares, not 1/3.

If you take $15B of theoretical earnings and divide by 5.9B shares, you get an EPS of 2.54. Multiplied by a 12x P/E ratio (same as NFLX) you get $30 per share.

...not that traditional valuation matters much at this point

I may have used a more sophisticated method than you. I googled total shares FNMA and got this...........nope, can't paste a screen shot of a top result that I didn't click on.

Thanks for the reply.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #34 on: January 26, 2024, 06:31:07 PM »
Did you buy at $1.45 and cause this dip? :P
Guilty. I had about $400 in spare dividend cash sitting around and thought "I'll let it ride". Follow me for more shorting opportunities. :P
Quote
I don't like the most recent Bloomberg article characterizing Fannie and Freddie as "meme-like" Trump plays. They're two of the most profitable companies on the planet, other end of the spectrum from GME or AMC.

Of course if FNMA and FMCC run up to $50 that'd be an amazing exit opportunity. My concern is that they become known solely as a Trump trade, run up to $10 before the election, then crash if Trump loses. Instability will make Treasury and FHFA more cautious about release.
I think the play is to hold Fannie and Freddie until just before the election and sell the rumor. It's a 50/50 election right now, but the prices of these stocks do not fully reflect a 50% chance, or even a 20% chance, of privatization. As the odds improve, selling opportunities can be expected to emerge. I think selling the government's controlling shares in these entities offer Trump (or Haley, honestly) a good gimmick to "pay for" more tax cuts, and so they may be mentioned further down the campaign trail. The more he talks them up, the more tax cuts can be justified by the idea of selling the shares.

I have a sell order to take my money back at $2.00 - 4,400 shares - and if it went nothing but up after that, I'd need a Gamestop-like frenzy to not sell some shares at $10, $20, etc.


I don't share the same political outlook as you guys and that's okay. I simply don't buy into that because IMO it's mere theater. But what you wrote in bold & italic above I think is pretty intelligent. If you only need $2 to walk away with 11k+ free shares, you're doing well. However I'd be careful still - if it dips below the $1.10 point in the next 30 days I'd consider recovering your $4,400 and holding out on the others as you said until you hit X, or X, or whatever you may decide the numbers will be. They're going to change on you if your strategy or data changes.

Good luck, I hope to see you hit $2 before March and watch this baby ride right up the hill for you throughout the year.

Cheap Bastard, you have some great political points and I won't disagree that theoretically they could play out very easily I just disagree with the whole idea of politics. I'm in the "SELECTED, not ELECTED" part of the park. I just simply don't play it nor believe it to be legit in any form. Your quick technical breakdown of the math is also admirable.

One cool thing about trading is there's nobody between you and all the money - except your keyword/mouse, a brokerage, and your ability. Everyone's strategy is different and there's innumerable strategies that can consistently perform. It's cool to read the various situations & opinions here without it feeling like we're on a trading forum or an app like Stocktwits (if you've ever been there, I apologize for even mentioning it and bringing back the bad memories).


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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #35 on: January 26, 2024, 07:58:21 PM »
@WayDownSouth, your caution is very smart. My feeling is that if the price drops or stagnates, I get to buy in for a longer period. I'd be content to do so for as long as 5 years [not because 5 years is a magical number, or will bring the "right" amount of shares; it's just a number I typed]. In that time, I could find myself selling early shares, but my incomes are as secure as any can get, and growing, so I think I can hang in there and ride this pony - be it into a sunset or off a cliff.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #36 on: January 27, 2024, 10:34:55 AM »
I don't share the same political outlook as you guys and that's okay. I simply don't buy into that because IMO it's mere theater. ...
Cheap Bastard, you have some great political points and I won't disagree that theoretically they could play out very easily I just disagree with the whole idea of politics. I'm in the "SELECTED, not ELECTED" part of the park. I just simply don't play it nor believe it to be legit in any form.
Another take: We can speculate on the odds of any of these things coming true, but if they don't, the value of FNMA or FMCC shares could land anywhere between 33 cents and 2 dollars - where they ranged during the Biden administration during a time when there was no thought of privatization. So already this is a less risky bet than rolling the dice on a company which might be heading toward bankruptcy, like many meme stocks.

Finally, one's own political opinions or forecasts might take a back seat to the need for hedging. Privatization of these New Deal era programs would likely expose them to the same financial realities predominant everywhere else in the world. This might mean an end to the unique government risk insurance that enables 15 and 30 year fixed rate mortgages here in the U.S. Within a few years, we could become a nation where a 5 year ARM is the longest-term loan homeowners can obtain. 15-30 year fixed rate loans simply do not make economic sense, which is why private companies don't offer them anywhere else in the world.

This might have good effects, such as insulating government coffers from future housing crises, removing market distortions, or making McMansions uneconomical, but it might also cause a housing price collapse, reduce the home ownership rate, or result in a long period of below-inflation housing appreciation.

As a homeowner, I have to think about how much wealth I would lose from such a development, and how I could compensate myself through FNMA or FMCC stock gains. This is a point where the politics become beside the point, and the very real risk to one's unhedged real estate exposure is the main topic. There is also the chance you make money on Fannie/Freddie and do not experience RE losses, in addition to the risk you lose both ways.*

With FNMA having only a $1.55B market cap, and FMCC at only $709M, these national giants are each smaller than a typical microcap retail bank with a few dozen branches, or about where GME was in late 2020. It would be easy for the price to hit $2 if they got even a little bit of attention.

*The lose both ways scenario might look like a shady deal to sell FNMA or FMCC to a politically connected bank, SPAC, or political ally for far below their value in public markets. This would be the Russia in the 1990s privatization scenario. It also might look like a housing correction early in Trump's second term that puts the elimination of mortgage subsidies on the back burner.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #37 on: January 27, 2024, 03:14:45 PM »
I don't share the same political outlook as you guys and that's okay. I simply don't buy into that because IMO it's mere theater. ...
Cheap Bastard, you have some great political points and I won't disagree that theoretically they could play out very easily I just disagree with the whole idea of politics. I'm in the "SELECTED, not ELECTED" part of the park. I just simply don't play it nor believe it to be legit in any form.
Another take: We can speculate on the odds of any of these things coming true, but if they don't, the value of FNMA or FMCC shares could land anywhere between 33 cents and 2 dollars - where they ranged during the Biden administration during a time when there was no thought of privatization. So already this is a less risky bet than rolling the dice on a company which might be heading toward bankruptcy, like many meme stocks.

Finally, one's own political opinions or forecasts might take a back seat to the need for hedging. Privatization of these New Deal era programs would likely expose them to the same financial realities predominant everywhere else in the world. This might mean an end to the unique government risk insurance that enables 15 and 30 year fixed rate mortgages here in the U.S. Within a few years, we could become a nation where a 5 year ARM is the longest-term loan homeowners can obtain. 15-30 year fixed rate loans simply do not make economic sense, which is why private companies don't offer them anywhere else in the world.

This might have good effects, such as insulating government coffers from future housing crises, removing market distortions, or making McMansions uneconomical, but it might also cause a housing price collapse, reduce the home ownership rate, or result in a long period of below-inflation housing appreciation.

As a homeowner, I have to think about how much wealth I would lose from such a development, and how I could compensate myself through FNMA or FMCC stock gains. This is a point where the politics become beside the point, and the very real risk to one's unhedged real estate exposure is the main topic. There is also the chance you make money on Fannie/Freddie and do not experience RE losses, in addition to the risk you lose both ways.*

With FNMA having only a $1.55B market cap, and FMCC at only $709M, these national giants are each smaller than a typical microcap retail bank with a few dozen branches, or about where GME was in late 2020. It would be easy for the price to hit $2 if they got even a little bit of attention.

*The lose both ways scenario might look like a shady deal to sell FNMA or FMCC to a politically connected bank, SPAC, or political ally for far below their value in public markets. This would be the Russia in the 1990s privatization scenario. It also might look like a housing correction early in Trump's second term that puts the elimination of mortgage subsidies on the back burner.

Many great points there - I think that believing in "x" group, or being political (or having a particular popular political preference) is one thing that makes trading difficult at times. For me, none of that shit affects my emotions, so I'm able to make decisions easier without "feeling" like Trump or Biden or any party in particular is a good reason to invest. However, I can easily "see" why government under certain situations or administrations can cause a variety of change within an industry or even a single stock. Likewise, it's sometimes a political decision - irrelevant of the "party" who makes it - which causes a specific result. A simple regulation in an unrelated industry, for example with a shockwave effect or a drip-down effect.

I enjoy your analysis, you have a lot more experience than I do and I have a lot, but again, while I know a little about everything my expertise is sniping penny stocks and doing technical analysis of charts and data. I'm very micro (almost nano) in what I look at to determine a buy, but I do understand and enjoy the depth of the macro because it concerns the greater economy.

I'm not a US homeowner as I mostly live abroad however my fear is as I bolded above - that the US may ditch the 15 and 30 year and that the result would be a negative one, creating a larger wealth gap that likely puts everyone here into the lower part of the gap. Even if you're able to keep what you own.

When I evaluate the macro of EVERYTHING economic, market, financial....... Let's just say I don't see the economy doing well at all. I think the stock market itself will flourish until the last second possible during this situation, but I also think that living, investing, and just generally enjoying life for the great majority of people will become much more difficult. I think these recently "hard economic times" will look like small waves compared to the coming rough seas. But that's just my best educated guess based on the available data.

I think your view and perspective is wise, broad, complete, and pretty fair in all areas. IMO that what tells me you're a good investor and know what to look at. For example, I always consider what could go wrong before considering the pros. You seem to at least consider these things and are apparently open and non-emotional about what might play out. Good stuff. I'm sure you're sitting very comfortably. Either that or you're just a poor cheap bastard with a strong understanding of genuine economics. Either way, I'm not judging...
« Last Edit: January 27, 2024, 03:27:23 PM by WayDownSouth »

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #38 on: January 27, 2024, 03:22:40 PM »
@WayDownSouth, your caution is very smart. My feeling is that if the price drops or stagnates, I get to buy in for a longer period. I'd be content to do so for as long as 5 years [not because 5 years is a magical number, or will bring the "right" amount of shares; it's just a number I typed]. In that time, I could find myself selling early shares, but my incomes are as secure as any can get, and growing, so I think I can hang in there and ride this pony - be it into a sunset or off a cliff.

Well if you're in that position, as you said, you can just ride it out and forget about it. But even if the loss if pocket change, it's still knowing, learning, and actually beating the game that makes it fun.. Right? How well can we speculate and how well does it stand up to (or exceed) the speculation of the same asset by "experts"? (So tired of those "experts")... Anyway as I said I wish you luck and I'll be taking a peek at this regularly to see how it plays out.

Cheap Bastard just mentioned some excellent points above that are very worthy of consideration for your investment.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #39 on: February 26, 2024, 08:23:54 AM »
Investment bank that previously called Fannie Mae at $1.25 now says Freddie Mac @$2.50 and Fannie Mae @ $2.00

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/freddie-mac-shares-upgraded-on-election-speculation-93CH-3315396

Time will tell.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #40 on: February 26, 2024, 08:57:19 PM »
Tuesday, I spent the day hanging with my 2nd daughter after she had her wisdom teeth out, so didn't see the share price until after. Wednesday, I was driving to Boston with my younger 2 for an overnight getaway (a Ben & Jerry's cone in Harvard Square is about the price of tuition). When it closed at $0.90, I was up 11 cents (almost 14%) from my last buy, which I was happy about.

I only have 15,800 shares, so a penny moves my position $158. Current gain is about 78%. I cannot say how I'd be feeling if this was 150,000 shares or 1,000,000, but right now I mostly feel neutral. I'm happy to be up, but uninspired to do much more than watch/wait.

@LightStache, to answer why FNMA instead of FMCC: No reason. They seem the same to me, which may speak to how little I know about what I'm doing. After all, they are supposedly 2 entities, so why not go evenly into them in the event 1 lasts and the other doesn't?

@WayDownSouth, you are helping me think about when I should take my money back, plus some. I've had a sell order in at $10 from the beginning in case it spikes and I'm not around. However, what is the price at which I will not buy any more? At that point, why not take a gain? I mean, if it's too expensive to buy more, it's too expensive not to cash out.

It looks to me like it's going to see a spike to $1.25 - $1.40 soon...



Well I called that part, been taking a look - you missed out on a nice top at exactly $1.40 on January 24th... I'm sure you are aware but I was just looking at this again today - I don't think you're going to see $1.60 anytime soon. Looks like it's going back to the teens to sit for the next 3 months but I didn't really dig into the chart too deeply. Let's hope it plays out better than it looks.


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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #41 on: February 26, 2024, 09:50:14 PM »
Tuesday, I spent the day hanging with my 2nd daughter after she had her wisdom teeth out, so didn't see the share price until after. Wednesday, I was driving to Boston with my younger 2 for an overnight getaway (a Ben & Jerry's cone in Harvard Square is about the price of tuition). When it closed at $0.90, I was up 11 cents (almost 14%) from my last buy, which I was happy about.

I only have 15,800 shares, so a penny moves my position $158. Current gain is about 78%. I cannot say how I'd be feeling if this was 150,000 shares or 1,000,000, but right now I mostly feel neutral. I'm happy to be up, but uninspired to do much more than watch/wait.

@LightStache, to answer why FNMA instead of FMCC: No reason. They seem the same to me, which may speak to how little I know about what I'm doing. After all, they are supposedly 2 entities, so why not go evenly into them in the event 1 lasts and the other doesn't?

@WayDownSouth, you are helping me think about when I should take my money back, plus some. I've had a sell order in at $10 from the beginning in case it spikes and I'm not around. However, what is the price at which I will not buy any more? At that point, why not take a gain? I mean, if it's too expensive to buy more, it's too expensive not to cash out.

It looks to me like it's going to see a spike to $1.25 - $1.40 soon...



Well I called that part, been taking a look - you missed out on a nice top at exactly $1.40 on January 24th... I'm sure you are aware but I was just looking at this again today - I don't think you're going to see $1.60 anytime soon. Looks like it's going back to the teens to sit for the next 3 months but I didn't really dig into the chart too deeply. Let's hope it plays out better than it looks.

I want to reply How dare you say I missed the top! I bought those shares, too, but according to my buying history, I'd be a liar. My last FNMA purchase was @ $1.00 on January 5.

On 2/15 I started buying Freddie Mac shares. Those were $1.1065, and I'll buy some more this week.

The 40 days between purchases wasn't me being savvy. It's because my adjunct pay has a gap between semesters.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2024, 11:09:31 PM by Chris Pascale »

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #42 on: February 26, 2024, 11:30:46 PM »
Tuesday, I spent the day hanging with my 2nd daughter after she had her wisdom teeth out, so didn't see the share price until after. Wednesday, I was driving to Boston with my younger 2 for an overnight getaway (a Ben & Jerry's cone in Harvard Square is about the price of tuition). When it closed at $0.90, I was up 11 cents (almost 14%) from my last buy, which I was happy about.

I only have 15,800 shares, so a penny moves my position $158. Current gain is about 78%. I cannot say how I'd be feeling if this was 150,000 shares or 1,000,000, but right now I mostly feel neutral. I'm happy to be up, but uninspired to do much more than watch/wait.

@LightStache, to answer why FNMA instead of FMCC: No reason. They seem the same to me, which may speak to how little I know about what I'm doing. After all, they are supposedly 2 entities, so why not go evenly into them in the event 1 lasts and the other doesn't?

@WayDownSouth, you are helping me think about when I should take my money back, plus some. I've had a sell order in at $10 from the beginning in case it spikes and I'm not around. However, what is the price at which I will not buy any more? At that point, why not take a gain? I mean, if it's too expensive to buy more, it's too expensive not to cash out.

It looks to me like it's going to see a spike to $1.25 - $1.40 soon...



Well I called that part, been taking a look - you missed out on a nice top at exactly $1.40 on January 24th... I'm sure you are aware but I was just looking at this again today - I don't think you're going to see $1.60 anytime soon. Looks like it's going back to the teens to sit for the next 3 months but I didn't really dig into the chart too deeply. Let's hope it plays out better than it looks.

I want to reply How dare you say I missed the top! I bought those shares, too, but according to my buying history, I'd be a liar. My last FNMA purchase was @ $1.00 on January 5.

On 2/15 I started buying Freddie Mac shares. Those were $1.1065, and I'll buy some more this week.

The 40 days between purchases wasn't me being savvy. It's because my adjunct pay has a gap between semesters.

I'm just giving you a hard time while claiming a little bragging right about my price prediction. I know you're fine where you sit and you're more than willing to ride it out.. BTW when I said "teens", I meant one dollar and teens, just to clarify.

You still hold a good amount and there's an opportunity here for sure but I think it's going to hold pretty stale just above a dollar for awhile.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #43 on: February 27, 2024, 11:06:22 AM »


I'm just giving you a hard time while claiming a little bragging right

It's all good. Your advice has been very welcome.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #44 on: March 08, 2024, 12:08:48 PM »
FNMA is up 9.5%.
FRCC is up 5.8%.
Any idea why? The broader markets are heading down today.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #45 on: March 09, 2024, 08:15:39 PM »
FNMA is up 9.5%.
FRCC is up 5.8%.
Any idea why? The broader markets are heading down today.

Damn, I didn't see that coming! I was going to chart it out a little deeper but I still don't think it would have made a difference in my prediction. I thought it was going to take a seat for a while, for sure!

There's always a reason. I'm going to look into it tomorrow and give my input if I have a chance to find anything worthy of mentioning.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #46 on: March 16, 2024, 09:37:51 AM »
Fannie is still holding up, a bit shaky according to charting but not bad at all IMHO!

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #47 on: March 18, 2024, 11:38:07 AM »
$1.65 @ChrisPascale! Tried to tag you in a thread but it won't let me tag you... Here is a link... Looks like a nice little catalyst, don't you think? @ChpBstrd might weigh in on his opinion of the influence caused here.

As always I'd DEFINITELY be pulling at least a little profit today but... MAN.. You might get your $2.00 wish as early at this week.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/real-estate-and-landlording/a-'seismic-shift'-in-real-estate-fees/msg3242923/#msg3242923https://

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #48 on: March 18, 2024, 11:50:17 AM »
$1.65 @ChrisPascale! Tried to tag you in a thread but it won't let me tag you... Here is a link... Looks like a nice little catalyst, don't you think? @ChpBstrd might weigh in on his opinion of the influence caused here.

As always I'd DEFINITELY be pulling at least a little profit today but... MAN.. You might get your $2.00 wish as early at this week.


Just checked the price and said, better head over to MMM.

It's nice to be right for the moment, especially since a minute before that I was steaming some peas and thought 'I'll add some lima beans' and dumped in about 20 little onions! They're not bad, actually.

I feel neutral. It helps that I've been working on this for a couple years, I think, and said I'd start buying shares a couple before that, but didn't.

I'd ask that you not be vicariously stressed, but don't think I should tell you how to feel - that's what the news is for.

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Re: Gambling on Fannie Mae Stock
« Reply #49 on: March 18, 2024, 12:11:10 PM »
$1.65 @ChrisPascale! Tried to tag you in a thread but it won't let me tag you... Here is a link... Looks like a nice little catalyst, don't you think? @ChpBstrd might weigh in on his opinion of the influence caused here.

As always I'd DEFINITELY be pulling at least a little profit today but... MAN.. You might get your $2.00 wish as early at this week.


Just checked the price and said, better head over to MMM.

It's nice to be right for the moment, especially since a minute before that I was steaming some peas and thought 'I'll add some lima beans' and dumped in about 20 little onions! They're not bad, actually.

I feel neutral. It helps that I've been working on this for a couple years, I think, and said I'd start buying shares a couple before that, but didn't.

I'd ask that you not be vicariously stressed, but don't think I should tell you how to feel - that's what the news is for.

Lol, enjoy your onions AND your gains... That announcement about real estate happened after market close Friday. I had a feeling it would impact this position one way or another. Glad to see it's in your favor!