Author Topic: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation  (Read 347683 times)

clarkfan1979

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2000 on: January 02, 2024, 12:38:11 PM »
Performance over 1 year (Jan 1 2023 to Dec 31 2023) was impressive :

BTC-USD $16,547.91 to $42,265.19 , up +155%
GBTC $8.22 to $34.62 , up +321%
MSTR $145.67 to $631.62 , up +334%
COIN $36.49 to $173.92 , up +377%

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBTC/history?p=GBTC
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR/history?p=MSTR
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN/history?p=COIN

But if you compare 2 year performance (from Jan 1 2022), not so much :

BTC-USD 46,311.75 to 42,265.19 , 2y -9%
GBTC 35.29 to 34.62 , 2y -2%
MSTR 550.61 to 631.62 , 2y +15%
COIN 256.27 to 173.92 , 2y -32%



This thread was created on September 6, 2021 and Bitcoin was trading at 51,715. Today it's trading at $45,000, so that would be around -13% over the past 2.33 years.

During the same timeline the S&P 500 improved from 4500 to 4734. That's +5.2% + dividends over the past 2.33 years.


LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2001 on: January 02, 2024, 04:31:51 PM »
Always interesting to look at any data from 2020 and see how the vast majority of major stocks & instruments made gains. Completely disconnected from the economy during a global pandemic.

Indeed. It was a significant factor in my 'getting' Bitcoin.

ChpBstrd

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2002 on: January 05, 2024, 10:35:08 AM »
Here's a fun read about the latest Ponzi scheme - this one was $1.3B.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/01/crypto-hedge-fund-ceo-may-not-exist-probe-finds-no-record-of-identity/

IMO this is the correct way to invest in crypto. Set up a fake company and disappear with the coins/cash. More of a money laundering challenge than a technical challenge.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2003 on: January 05, 2024, 02:26:58 PM »
Here's a fun read about the latest Ponzi scheme - this one was $1.3B.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/01/crypto-hedge-fund-ceo-may-not-exist-probe-finds-no-record-of-identity/

IMO this is the correct way to invest in crypto. Set up a fake company and disappear with the coins/cash. More of a money laundering challenge than a technical challenge.

As shitty as that is, gotta give credit where credit is due. There is a certain level of genius behind that. I mean, getting Steve Wozniak to endorse it and all? How much do you have to pay for that? Speaks volumes about Wozniak too - I can't imagine them paying him much more than $1MM but who knows.

"I can’t wait for the HyperVerse.” LOL...

« Last Edit: January 05, 2024, 02:34:05 PM by WayDownSouth »

ChpBstrd

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2004 on: January 05, 2024, 02:44:12 PM »
Here's a fun read about the latest Ponzi scheme - this one was $1.3B.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/01/crypto-hedge-fund-ceo-may-not-exist-probe-finds-no-record-of-identity/

IMO this is the correct way to invest in crypto. Set up a fake company and disappear with the coins/cash. More of a money laundering challenge than a technical challenge.

As shitty as that is, gotta give credit where credit is due. There is a certain level of genius behind that. I mean, getting Steve Wozniak to endorse it and all? How much do you have to pay for that? Speaks volumes about Wozniak too - I can't imagine them paying him much more than $1MM but who knows.

"I can’t wait for the HyperVerse.” LOL...


Why would you pay them when you could deepfake them?

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2005 on: January 05, 2024, 03:02:46 PM »
Here's a fun read about the latest Ponzi scheme - this one was $1.3B.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/01/crypto-hedge-fund-ceo-may-not-exist-probe-finds-no-record-of-identity/

IMO this is the correct way to invest in crypto. Set up a fake company and disappear with the coins/cash. More of a money laundering challenge than a technical challenge.

As shitty as that is, gotta give credit where credit is due. There is a certain level of genius behind that. I mean, getting Steve Wozniak to endorse it and all? How much do you have to pay for that? Speaks volumes about Wozniak too - I can't imagine them paying him much more than $1MM but who knows.

"I can’t wait for the HyperVerse.” LOL...


Why would you pay them when you could deepfake them?

You could just photoshop that in 10 mins... but why risk blowing your cover when someone calls fake? According to the article, it seems that they really did speak about the company (on video or something)... Someone put some serious planning into it.

I suppose it could have been deep faked video but at that point I'd suspect we'd hear Wozniak announce that. Sounds like he never confirmed either way.

« Last Edit: January 05, 2024, 03:10:07 PM by WayDownSouth »

maizefolk

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2006 on: January 05, 2024, 03:14:27 PM »
I'm guessing something like Cameo that lets people pay a couple of hundred bucks to get celebrities to record personalized video messages?

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2007 on: January 05, 2024, 04:00:09 PM »
I'm guessing something like Cameo that lets people pay a couple of hundred bucks to get celebrities to record personalized video messages?

Article does mention that as possibility..

*Plot twist -

Breaking Story: Millions of celebrity fans upset, call for immediate legal action after Cameo revealed to use up to 90% deep fake AI videos

"Amber was so sad when she found out. Devastated. It literally ruined not only her birthday which was 3 months ago, but surely all of her future birthdays. We're just in shock. How this was ever allowed to happen is just wrong on every level. We've had to resort to online counseling for the trauma. She still hasn't left her room and refuses to eat for the last week. She tore up all her Lil Nas X posters."

- Gina M., mom of Amber, 15.

Metalcat

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2008 on: January 05, 2024, 04:59:31 PM »
I'm guessing something like Cameo that lets people pay a couple of hundred bucks to get celebrities to record personalized video messages?

Yep, the article I read explained that all of the celebrities who "endorsed" it are highly active on Cameo.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2009 on: January 05, 2024, 09:10:37 PM »
I'm guessing something like Cameo that lets people pay a couple of hundred bucks to get celebrities to record personalized video messages?

Yep, the article I read explained that all of the celebrities who "endorsed" it are highly active on Cameo.

I read that too but I'm surprised that Wozniak (being who he is) doesn't have someone managing damage control and actively preventing him from making serious fuck ups. I'm surprised he's not limited by a company contract to what/where he posts publicly.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2010 on: January 06, 2024, 10:30:13 PM »
I'm surprised how long it lasted... surprised Australia does nothing for years... and surprised they have two other scams in progress (as of a month ago, the date of the following article).

Quote
Many investors have reported losses thanks to a cryptocurrency investment scheme called HyperVerse, which operated in Australia from around 2018 to mid-2023. Several financial watchdogs issued warnings about the company, including the UK, Canada, Germany, and New Zealand. The Hungarian central bank warned in August 2022 that the HyperVerse project was a "suspected pyramid scheme... behind which there is no real economic activity... There is a significant chance that investors may permanently lose part or all of their invested capital."
Estimates by Chainalysis suggest that victims have lost a combined $1.3 billion (with a B) to the scam thus far.

The scheme's operators Sam Lee and Zijing "Ryan" Xu were also behind Blockchain Global, a collapsed company that operated the Australian ACX crypto exchange that collapsed in 2019. The company is in liquidation, and creditor claims are expected to surpass $50 million. Although Lee and Xu were reported for investigation to the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, ASIC did not take any action.

Lee has also been involved in other investment platforms, including two that are currently active: StableDao and We Are All Satoshi. Both platforms were the target of cease and desist letters from the Californian Department of Financial Protection and Innovation in September 2023, who described them both as "fraudulent pyramid and Ponzi scheme".
https://web3isgoinggreat.com/single/hyperverse-scam

Because I wasn't sure of the above as a source... I looked up one of the founders and discovered they fled to Dubai when HyperFund was exposed as a Ponzi scheme... over two years ago.

https://behindmlm.com/companies/hyperfund-confirms-executives-fleeing-to-dubai/

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2011 on: January 07, 2024, 12:09:10 AM »
Quote
Jan 5 (Reuters) - Investment management firms, stock exchanges and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday discussed final wording changes on filings for spot bitcoin ETFs, a step that could lead to U.S. approval of the funds for the first time next week, sources familiar with the matter said.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-spot-bitcoin-etfs-could-win-approval-next-week-after-last-minute-application-2024-01-06/

I view spot Bitcoin ETFs as hype that will inflate the price of Bitcoin, so I plan to short it.  I expect the SEC to grant approval to multiple ETFs, which I predict sends BTC-USD above $50,000.  Within days or weeks I expect spot Bitcoin ETFs to be open for investment, at which point I'll short again.  Then I wait for the hype to fade.

Most crypto fans seem to view spot Bitcoin ETFs as a huge step, but I think it's incremental.  Grayscale's GBTC has over $20 billion in assets and charges an expense ratio of 2% per year.  Spot Bitcoin ETFs will charge less than 2%/year, pressuring GBTC to lose customers or lower their fees.  That's the incremental improvement I see.

Fans of crypto seem to view spot Bitcoin ETFs as unlocking institutional investment in crypto.  I view it as incremental because of the many other ways to buy Bitcoin.  Most of the new ETFs will rely on Coinbase as a Bitcoin custodian - which institutional money could do without an ETF.  Or they can buy in the Bitcoin futures market... or shares of GBTC.

The final deadline for ARC21's spot Bitcoin ETF application is this week, so I expect approval of that and other applications (out of fairness).  I will probably short Bitcoin stocks because they drop further than Bitcoin, and are cheaper to short.  An alternative is buying BITI, which is short Bitcoin futures.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2012 on: January 08, 2024, 05:33:48 AM »
If I was going to short bitcoin, which I wouldn't I would use a defi lending protocol like AAVE.  You would basically get paid a small amount to short it as you would make more interest on your supplied collateral than you would be paying to borrow wrapped btc.
AAVE lost over -18% in the past week.  What happens in this scenario if AAVE drops 40% while Bitcoin only drops 20%?  To me that sounds like seizing defeat from the jaws of victory.

Glenstache

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2013 on: January 08, 2024, 04:47:58 PM »
Among the things that will erode public confidence in crypto, fairly or not:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/04/chief-executive-of-collapsed-crypto-fund-hyperverse-does-not-appear-to-exist

Total pyramid scheme, which is not specific to it being crypto. The paid celebrity endorsement angle is interesting, in addition to the spokesperson literally not being a real person.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2014 on: January 08, 2024, 05:17:55 PM »
Among the things that will erode public confidence in crypto, fairly or not:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/04/chief-executive-of-collapsed-crypto-fund-hyperverse-does-not-appear-to-exist

Total pyramid scheme, which is not specific to it being crypto. The paid celebrity endorsement angle is interesting, in addition to the spokesperson literally not being a real person.

Wait until the public discovers that federal reserve notes are also a pyramid scheme... that will be a bad day, I think "the top will be in" then for sure!

FINate

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2015 on: January 09, 2024, 09:48:03 AM »
Among the things that will erode public confidence in crypto, fairly or not:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/04/chief-executive-of-collapsed-crypto-fund-hyperverse-does-not-appear-to-exist

Total pyramid scheme, which is not specific to it being crypto. The paid celebrity endorsement angle is interesting, in addition to the spokesperson literally not being a real person.

Wait until the public discovers that federal reserve notes are also a pyramid scheme... that will be a bad day, I think "the top will be in" then for sure!

Please explain to us how federal reserve notes are a pyramid scheme. Here's a definition to get things started: https://www.investopedia.com/insights/what-is-a-pyramid-scheme/

Quote
A pyramid scheme is a fraudulent and unsustainable investment pitch that relies on promising unrealistic returns from imaginary investments. The early investors actually get paid those big returns, which leads them to recommend the scheme to others. Investors' returns are paid out of the new money flowing in. Eventually, no new investors can be found and the pyramid collapses.

In a variation of the pyramid scheme, investors at each level charge initiation fees that are paid by the next layer of investors. A portion of those fees is paid on to those in the top layers of the pyramid. Eventually, no one is left to recruit. The pyramid collapses.

If you don't like this definition then, please, tell us what you think a pyramid scheme is.

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2016 on: January 09, 2024, 11:49:29 AM »
Quote
A pyramid scheme is a fraudulent and unsustainable investment pitch that relies on promising unrealistic returns from imaginary investments. The early investors actually get paid those big returns, which leads them to recommend the scheme to others. Investors' returns are paid out of the new money flowing in. Eventually, no new investors can be found and the pyramid collapses.

Hey look!  If you remove two words, it's also the definition of crypto.

FINate

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2017 on: January 09, 2024, 12:49:30 PM »
Quote
A pyramid scheme is a fraudulent and unsustainable investment pitch that relies on promising unrealistic returns from imaginary investments. The early investors actually get paid those big returns, which leads them to recommend the scheme to others. Investors' returns are paid out of the new money flowing in. Eventually, no new investors can be found and the pyramid collapses.

Hey look!  If you remove two words, it's also the definition of crypto.

Those two words really matter. If there's no fraud, no cooking of the books to deceive investors, it's not a pyramid scheme. Instead, it's a speculative bubble, like Tulip Mania.

Curious if @WayDownSouth will actually respond. It's the kind of thing crypto zealots say with great confidence, but rarely back with substance.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2018 on: January 09, 2024, 01:09:12 PM »
Quote
A pyramid scheme is a fraudulent and unsustainable investment pitch that relies on promising unrealistic returns from imaginary investments. The early investors actually get paid those big returns, which leads them to recommend the scheme to others. Investors' returns are paid out of the new money flowing in. Eventually, no new investors can be found and the pyramid collapses.

Hey look!  If you remove two words, it's also the definition of crypto.

Those two words really matter. If there's no fraud, no cooking of the books to deceive investors, it's not a pyramid scheme. Instead, it's a speculative bubble, like Tulip Mania.

Curious if @WayDownSouth will actually respond. It's the kind of thing crypto zealots say with great confidence, but rarely back with substance.

Well, Steve made a good point above. Same as crypto. Let's say Ponzi, or, Pyramid.... they're not precise definitions but let's assume that "fradulent" is loosely defined just for the sake of this explanation. Central banks (the FED being one) have an unlimited ability to purchase based on a zero-balance account. Government bonds are basically a glorified IOU, and have no true value until purchased. So from the point of origination, both instruments are essentially "imaginary". The "early investors" are world banks, central banks, governments.

You can pretty much follow the trail from there if you'd like, it's not extremely hard to figure out. It's also a good practice to understand these things by doing your own research rather than just asking someone and deciding to believe them (or not believe them) ....regardless of if that person is an "authority" on the subject or a nobody from an internet forum.

I could care less about money or cryptocurrency. Unfortunately, money makes it easier to acquire free time, and also other important items like food and housing. I'm not a crypto zealot, or a zealot of any form. And I'll accept your use of the term zealot being loosely (but sufficiently) related to your point at hand in the same way you should be receptive to my use of "pyramid scheme".

Hope you guys has a good holiday break and got some R&R (whether FIREd or not). Even the retired need rest and relaxation to be in good humor and at peace.

(BTW I was planning to short BTC heavily but I'm not so sure it's going to work as planned so I haven't started that endeavor just yet but I'm watching very closely. It keeps dragging but this week should be very telling!)

Telecaster

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2019 on: January 09, 2024, 01:22:15 PM »
Well, Steve made a good point above. Same as crypto. Let's say Ponzi, or, Pyramid.... they're not precise definitions but let's assume that "fradulent" is loosely defined just for the sake of this explanation. Central banks (the FED being one) have an unlimited ability to purchase based on a zero-balance account. Government bonds are basically a glorified IOU, and have no true value until purchased. So from the point of origination, both instruments are essentially "imaginary". The "early investors" are world banks, central banks, governments.

There is no fraud here.   

FINate

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2020 on: January 09, 2024, 01:25:59 PM »
Well, Steve made a good point above. Same as crypto. Let's say Ponzi, or, Pyramid.... they're not precise definitions but let's assume that "fradulent" is loosely defined just for the sake of this explanation. Central banks (the FED being one) have an unlimited ability to purchase based on a zero-balance account. Government bonds are basically a glorified IOU, and have no true value until purchased. So from the point of origination, both instruments are essentially "imaginary". The "early investors" are world banks, central banks, governments.

You can pretty much follow the trail from there if you'd like, it's not extremely hard to figure out. It's also a good practice to understand these things by doing your own research rather than just asking someone and deciding to believe them (or not believe them) ....regardless of if that person is an "authority" on the subject or a nobody from an internet forum.

The problem with this, however, is the Fed is very clear about its long-term goal to devalue the dollar through moderate inflation. This is why it's not a good idea to hold large amounts of cash for long periods. The Fed doesn't want people hoarding cash as this is unproductive and bad for the velocity of money. No one is promising high future returns to buyers, but instead are being told they will almost certainly have a negative return.

If you have a beef with the incentives backed into the system for various players, fine. But it's all transparent and it's not fraudulent or a pyramid scheme.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2021 on: January 09, 2024, 01:29:14 PM »
Well, Steve made a good point above. Same as crypto. Let's say Ponzi, or, Pyramid.... they're not precise definitions but let's assume that "fradulent" is loosely defined just for the sake of this explanation. Central banks (the FED being one) have an unlimited ability to purchase based on a zero-balance account. Government bonds are basically a glorified IOU, and have no true value until purchased. So from the point of origination, both instruments are essentially "imaginary". The "early investors" are world banks, central banks, governments.

There is no fraud here.
When it comes down to it all forms of currency outside of direct barter are a glorified transferrable IOU. Regular currencies, crypto, mini gold ingots, stone wheels at the bottom of the ocean, etc all have value for commerce almost exclusively as a perceived store of value (ie, a glorified IOU). The ability of central banks to adjust supply is a novel financial tool that has proven immensely valuable through the ability to stabilize economies over the last century or so that they have been in use. Are there risks associated with that capability? Of course. Have there been bad actors that have used the printing press poorly? Of course. And that is why the Fed is, and should remain, as detached from the political process/control as possible.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2022 on: January 09, 2024, 02:28:26 PM »
Well, Steve made a good point above. Same as crypto. Let's say Ponzi, or, Pyramid.... they're not precise definitions but let's assume that "fradulent" is loosely defined just for the sake of this explanation. Central banks (the FED being one) have an unlimited ability to purchase based on a zero-balance account. Government bonds are basically a glorified IOU, and have no true value until purchased. So from the point of origination, both instruments are essentially "imaginary". The "early investors" are world banks, central banks, governments.

There is no fraud here.
When it comes down to it all forms of currency outside of direct barter are a glorified transferrable IOU. Regular currencies, crypto, mini gold ingots, stone wheels at the bottom of the ocean, etc all have value for commerce almost exclusively as a perceived store of value (ie, a glorified IOU). The ability of central banks to adjust supply is a novel financial tool that has proven immensely valuable through the ability to stabilize economies over the last century or so that they have been in use. Are there risks associated with that capability? Of course. Have there been bad actors that have used the printing press poorly? Of course. And that is why the Fed is, and should remain, as detached from the political process/control as possible.

I can agree with most of what you're saying completely, apart from the fact the Fed (or any central bank for that matter) being detached from political process and control. While I do believe it SHOULD be that way, I'd personally be very comfortable saying  it's a fact that central banks dictate political processes (both directly and indirectly), and maintain an absolutely immense amount of control.

If you have control over a nation's currency, you definitely don't need to worry about the laws that govern said country having any impact on you, correct? I think that's quite fair to say. Therefore, you would also have direct control over that country and its political processes through monetary "policy". Taxpayers, for example, do not get to vote on the rules and boundaries of how fractional reserve banking works, and neither does the government. The latter may seem to play out that way in a public view, but history and action shows a very distinct, clear, and different situation.

You make several good points though which I do agree with. We could be trading seashells or powdered dog shit if the majority decides it's valuable, but at the end of the day that only works at the barter level or person-to-person transactions. In our actual society, the monetary policy may be publicly governed by legislation, but I trust very much that any legislation which laid heavy stones in the path of the Fed would never come to fruition in the first place.

I suppose I see it as simple as this - control the issuance, flow, and levels of any serious currency, and you control all those who use it. Of course there are small exceptions (many), but I have always seen central banking institutions as far above the law, and even if responsible for success or failure, able to do as they please with total impunity.

It should not be confused (or presumed to be the idea) of them running an intentional ponzi or pyramid scheme but clearly they'll ensure their own safety and success before they ensure the financial security of the general public when worse comes to worse. After all it's in their bests "interests" (haha) to keep the wheels turning so they can continue issuing debt perpetually until A.) everything collapses, or, B.) they own it all... both very undesirable scenarios for society as a whole.

With ALLLLLLL of that being said. It's not a sustainable system. The debt cannot ever be paid back to them, and anyone with a calculator that's able to process a sufficient number of 0's can do the math and see these facts. This is how they slowly begin to acquire "public assets", natural resources, and debts that are more physical in nature... In the end, they'll own it all and then decide how things operate - whether there is a government who acts as PR or not... and we're already much farther than halfway there IMO.

I mean, I enjoy discussing these things and all that but nobody can say for sure what/when/where/why/how it all truly works, and/or how it will play out except for those who are actually executing these policies and calling the shots. Definitely not the lazy turds in DC.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2024, 02:34:29 PM by WayDownSouth »

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2023 on: January 09, 2024, 02:43:18 PM »
Well, Steve made a good point above. Same as crypto. Let's say Ponzi, or, Pyramid.... they're not precise definitions but let's assume that "fradulent" is loosely defined just for the sake of this explanation. Central banks (the FED being one) have an unlimited ability to purchase based on a zero-balance account. Government bonds are basically a glorified IOU, and have no true value until purchased. So from the point of origination, both instruments are essentially "imaginary". The "early investors" are world banks, central banks, governments.

There is no fraud here.

Master Telecaster, refrain from telling me more of what Auntie Yellen told you over the holiday dinner. I mentioned very recently that discussing these subjects is interesting and enjoyable but I won't be taking your bait any longer.

« Last Edit: January 09, 2024, 02:46:09 PM by WayDownSouth »

Telecaster

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2024 on: January 09, 2024, 02:52:39 PM »
When it comes down to it all forms of currency outside of direct barter are a glorified transferrable IOU. Regular currencies, crypto, mini gold ingots, stone wheels at the bottom of the ocean, etc all have value for commerce almost exclusively as a perceived store of value (ie, a glorified IOU). The ability of central banks to adjust supply is a novel financial tool that has proven immensely valuable through the ability to stabilize economies over the last century or so that they have been in use. Are there risks associated with that capability? Of course. Have there been bad actors that have used the printing press poorly? Of course. And that is why the Fed is, and should remain, as detached from the political process/control as possible.

Not even that glorified, really.   The oldest recorded financial transactions in human history are debt/credit transactions.  Which is to say exchanging imaginary money.   
From the 12th century to 1826 English subjects paid[urlhttps://maa.org/press/periodicals/convergence/mathematical-treasures-english-tally-sticks] taxes using wooden sticks that represented money[/url].   Yes, that's right.  You paid taxes with wood sticks.  And examples like that are ubiquitous around the world.   

Fractional reserve lending--a.k.a creating money out thin air--has existed as long as there have been lenders.   And believe it or not, private banks create way more money out of thin air than central banks.    And yes, the system implodes from time to time, which is why the guardrails and regulations look the way the do. 

I get the impression most crypto enthusiasts learned about crypto before learning about traditional money.   If you want to argue that the system is rigged to benefit the wealthy, you'll get no quibble from me.   But the way the monetary system itself works isn't fraud, and the basics haven't changed a whole lot throughout human history and barely at all since the creation of modern banking, which was like 600 years ago or something.  The arguments against the traditional money system (e.g. it's fraud!) to paint crypto as an alternative aren't very compelling once you understand how money works.   

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2025 on: January 09, 2024, 03:04:28 PM »
There is no fraud here.

Master Telecaster, refrain from telling me more of what Auntie Yellen told you over the holiday dinner. I mentioned very recently that discussing these subjects is interesting and enjoyable but I won't be taking your bait any longer.

I've observed there is nothing that causes a crypto enthusiast more distress that a simple statement of fact with no editorializing. 

I wonder why that is?

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2026 on: January 09, 2024, 03:05:34 PM »
When it comes down to it all forms of currency outside of direct barter are a glorified transferrable IOU. Regular currencies, crypto, mini gold ingots, stone wheels at the bottom of the ocean, etc all have value for commerce almost exclusively as a perceived store of value (ie, a glorified IOU). The ability of central banks to adjust supply is a novel financial tool that has proven immensely valuable through the ability to stabilize economies over the last century or so that they have been in use. Are there risks associated with that capability? Of course. Have there been bad actors that have used the printing press poorly? Of course. And that is why the Fed is, and should remain, as detached from the political process/control as possible.

Fractional reserve lending--a.k.a creating money out thin air--has existed as long as there have been lenders.   And believe it or not, private banks create way more money out of thin air than central banks.    And yes, the system implodes from time to time, which is why the guardrails and regulations look the way the do. 

Wrong again, telecaster. You do know that the reserves required by the federal reserve are 0. Zero. So they are literally creating debt (money) out of thin air with interest added from the get go.

I know what you were thinking about how the fractional reserve system allows a bank to lend X amount per each dollar they hold, thereby creating money from thin air. However, when the central bank issues currency to the big banks, there is a term for it. I think it's "reserve deposit" or something, I am not 100% sure. Either way, that only happens for account holders - those who have accounts with the central banks. And, for example, since the Fed has a zero-balance requirement and clearly puts out more cash then they have by creating it on-demand, they are in fact the largest issuer of "thin air" money that there is.

Hope you learned something new today. We all should, I know I did.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2027 on: January 09, 2024, 03:10:25 PM »
There is no fraud here.

Master Telecaster, refrain from telling me more of what Auntie Yellen told you over the holiday dinner. I mentioned very recently that discussing these subjects is interesting and enjoyable but I won't be taking your bait any longer.

I've observed there is nothing that causes a crypto enthusiast more distress that a simple statement of fact with no editorializing. 

I wonder why that is?

This is why I don't wanna respond to you. The only thing interesting to me about crypto is why so many people think it's "the future, man!".....

For fuck's sake my friend, I am not a crypto enthusiast nor am I under distress. Thirdly, you're not stating facts.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2028 on: January 09, 2024, 03:50:56 PM »
Fractional reserve lending--a.k.a creating money out thin air--has existed as long as there have been lenders.   And believe it or not, private banks create way more money out of thin air than central banks.    And yes, the system implodes from time to time, which is why the guardrails and regulations look the way the do. 

Wrong again, telecaster. You do know that the reserves required by the federal reserve are 0. Zero. So they are literally creating debt (money) out of thin air with interest added from the get go.

I know what you were thinking about how the fractional reserve system allows a bank to lend X amount per each dollar they hold, thereby creating money from thin air. However, when the central bank issues currency to the big banks, there is a term for it. I think it's "reserve deposit" or something, I am not 100% sure. Either way, that only happens for account holders - those who have accounts with the central banks. And, for example, since the Fed has a zero-balance requirement and clearly puts out more cash then they have by creating it on-demand, they are in fact the largest issuer of "thin air" money that there is.

Hope you learned something new today. We all should, I know I did.

I don't know why you are upset.  I stated plainly that central banks create money out of thin air.  We have no disagreement at all on that point     I was just noting that private banks create even more money than the Fed.   FWIW, private banks in the US create almost $11 trillion dollars per year on average.   That's far, far more than the Fed, even when QE was going full steam.  This phenomenon was described a hundred years ago.  It isn't a new idea.   

Again, I don't understand this fact got you so agitated.   I didn't see anything controversial in what I wrote.   I wasn't even responding to you.   I was merely elaborating on @Glenstache 's observations on the imaginary nature of money, which I happen to think is an interesting topic.   

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2029 on: January 09, 2024, 04:16:38 PM »
The zero basis instead of a gold standard is interesting. My understanding is that there is a recognition that what is actually giving the money value is the economy that it is embedded in. The more robust the economy, the more useful/valuable the medium of exchange within that economy is. Having a target inflation rate for the value of that money that is something other than zero seems sensical as there was inflation long before fiat currency. It is also not a bad thing IMHO to incentivize keeping money in circulation. There is a greater-good benefit to encouraging use of money. I also see that it forces people to have either a decreasing store of wealth if they are saving for a rainy day, etc. or are forced to store the resources as stocks or investments of some sort if they do wish to accumulate. But, to my mind the solution to the human effects of that is a good social safety net  rather than a libertarian no-government approach. And that seems to get at the nub of a lot of the friction over crypto. Many of the proponents of crypto like the (albeit-digital) tangible uniqueness of the resource and that it is decoupled from central banks and governments. There is a feeling of freedom as lack of constraint with it. Many of the doubters do not share that same zeal or buy that crypto actually delivers on that or that the lack of structure actually solves the problems/issues that crypto purports to get around. Arguing around the marginal technical issues is pointless because they don't get at the philosophical basis for why the true-believers have such a strong draw to it. The technology is a means to an idealistic end that is not universally viewed as a utopia.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2030 on: January 09, 2024, 04:21:22 PM »
When it comes down to it all forms of currency outside of direct barter are a glorified transferrable IOU. Regular currencies, crypto, mini gold ingots, stone wheels at the bottom of the ocean, etc all have value for commerce almost exclusively as a perceived store of value (ie, a glorified IOU). The ability of central banks to adjust supply is a novel financial tool that has proven immensely valuable through the ability to stabilize economies over the last century or so that they have been in use. Are there risks associated with that capability? Of course. Have there been bad actors that have used the printing press poorly? Of course. And that is why the Fed is, and should remain, as detached from the political process/control as possible.

Fractional reserve lending--a.k.a creating money out thin air--has existed as long as there have been lenders.   And believe it or not, private banks create way more money out of thin air than central banks.    And yes, the system implodes from time to time, which is why the guardrails and regulations look the way the do. 

Wrong again, telecaster. You do know that the reserves required by the federal reserve are 0. Zero. So they are literally creating debt (money) out of thin air with interest added from the get go.

I know what you were thinking about how the fractional reserve system allows a bank to lend X amount per each dollar they hold, thereby creating money from thin air. However, when the central bank issues currency to the big banks, there is a term for it. I think it's "reserve deposit" or something, I am not 100% sure. Either way, that only happens for account holders - those who have accounts with the central banks. And, for example, since the Fed has a zero-balance requirement and clearly puts out more cash then they have by creating it on-demand, they are in fact the largest issuer of "thin air" money that there is.

Hope you learned something new today. We all should, I know I did.

You have it backwards.  Reserve deposits are deposits member banks must make with the District Federal Reserve Bank to satisfy their reserve requirements. Member banks fund loans primarily through customer deposits. [old, but still relevant: https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/economic-perspectives/1977/ep-may-jun1977-part2-erdevig-pdf.pdf]

The central bank doesn't "issue currency" to member banks. Rather, member banks create currency when they lend.

If a member bank experiences a short-term liquidity squeeze it can borrow directly from the Fed discount window. In such cases the Fed creates new money, though this is less common because banks use this as a last resort because the terms are less favorable.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalreservebank.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fractionalreservebanking.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/discountwindow.asp
« Last Edit: January 09, 2024, 04:30:34 PM by FINate »

ChpBstrd

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2031 on: January 09, 2024, 04:24:53 PM »
The zero basis instead of a gold standard is interesting. My understanding is that there is a recognition that what is actually giving the money value is the economy that it is embedded in. The more robust the economy, the more useful/valuable the medium of exchange within that economy is. Having a target inflation rate for the value of that money that is something other than zero seems sensical as there was inflation long before fiat currency. It is also not a bad thing IMHO to incentivize keeping money in circulation. There is a greater-good benefit to encouraging use of money. I also see that it forces people to have either a decreasing store of wealth if they are saving for a rainy day, etc. or are forced to store the resources as stocks or investments of some sort if they do wish to accumulate. But, to my mind the solution to the human effects of that is a good social safety net  rather than a libertarian no-government approach. And that seems to get at the nub of a lot of the friction over crypto. Many of the proponents of crypto like the (albeit-digital) tangible uniqueness of the resource and that it is decoupled from central banks and governments. There is a feeling of freedom as lack of constraint with it. Many of the doubters do not share that same zeal or buy that crypto actually delivers on that or that the lack of structure actually solves the problems/issues that crypto purports to get around. Arguing around the marginal technical issues is pointless because they don't get at the philosophical basis for why the true-believers have such a strong draw to it. The technology is a means to an idealistic end that is not universally viewed as a utopia.
I agree, and will add that when we talk about what "should" happen according to our values, we should keep in mind we are NOT talking about what "will" happen or how other people "will" behave. Thus we risk ending up with a political slogan instead of an investment thesis.

An example:
People "should" delete social media apps from their devices, because these have effects that are bad for their users and we want what's best for the human species. However they "will" not delete them, and Meta, Bytedance, and Google "will" keep making fortunes for their investors.

ChpBstrd

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2032 on: January 09, 2024, 04:49:51 PM »
Somebody hacked the SEC's account this afternoon, posted that bitcoin ETFs were approved, and maybe traded on the $1,000 spike caused by the misinformation. Now bitcoin is about $750 lower than before the post.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-says-unauthorized-message-about-bitcoin-etf-approvals-not-accurate-221322008.html

Standard crypto stuff.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2033 on: January 09, 2024, 05:57:22 PM »
When it comes down to it all forms of currency outside of direct barter are a glorified transferrable IOU. Regular currencies, crypto, mini gold ingots, stone wheels at the bottom of the ocean, etc all have value for commerce almost exclusively as a perceived store of value (ie, a glorified IOU). The ability of central banks to adjust supply is a novel financial tool that has proven immensely valuable through the ability to stabilize economies over the last century or so that they have been in use. Are there risks associated with that capability? Of course. Have there been bad actors that have used the printing press poorly? Of course. And that is why the Fed is, and should remain, as detached from the political process/control as possible.

Fractional reserve lending--a.k.a creating money out thin air--has existed as long as there have been lenders.   And believe it or not, private banks create way more money out of thin air than central banks.    And yes, the system implodes from time to time, which is why the guardrails and regulations look the way the do. 

Wrong again, telecaster. You do know that the reserves required by the federal reserve are 0. Zero. So they are literally creating debt (money) out of thin air with interest added from the get go.

I know what you were thinking about how the fractional reserve system allows a bank to lend X amount per each dollar they hold, thereby creating money from thin air. However, when the central bank issues currency to the big banks, there is a term for it. I think it's "reserve deposit" or something, I am not 100% sure. Either way, that only happens for account holders - those who have accounts with the central banks. And, for example, since the Fed has a zero-balance requirement and clearly puts out more cash then they have by creating it on-demand, they are in fact the largest issuer of "thin air" money that there is.

Hope you learned something new today. We all should, I know I did.

You have it backwards.  Reserve deposits are deposits member banks must make with the District Federal Reserve Bank to satisfy their reserve requirements. Member banks fund loans primarily through customer deposits. [old, but still relevant: https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/economic-perspectives/1977/ep-may-jun1977-part2-erdevig-pdf.pdf]

The central bank doesn't "issue currency" to member banks. Rather, member banks create currency when they lend.

If a member bank experiences a short-term liquidity squeeze it can borrow directly from the Fed discount window. In such cases the Fed creates new money, though this is less common because banks use this as a last resort because the terms are less favorable.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalreservebank.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fractionalreservebanking.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/discountwindow.asp

They DO often issue currency but you're correct that they don't "issue currency" - they issue debt in exchange for bonds, or, with interest/terms attached. It's not even currency because they don't require any reserves to issue it. They create more money out of thin air than other banks combined most likely. The fractional reserve is at minimum regulated to where they must have X amount of dollars to "lend" money that's technically non-existant based on the fact they they expect the debtor to pay and that allows them to maintain their program of fractional reserve banking.

The Fed does not utilize fractional reserve - the fed is the only one who is creating bills/digits/debt (whatever you prefer to call it) completely from thin air. From zero. They require absolutely nothing. So I understand what you're saying and maybe we'd both be correct in a way. Big banks possibly issue higher volume overall in sum, but they're limited supposedly by regulations (which they also break as a large majority are insolvent). The reserve is not limited, governed, or regulated by anyone in regards to what they decide to "lend", or buy. And of course, banks have their deposits from people and businesses so I'm not trying to say that ALL money in circulation is invaluable or created from thin air, just to clarify I'm not a (complete) idiot. lol

I think I'm pretty solid with my opinion but again I don't work for them and the information available comes from sources that surely aren't designed to paint them in a bad light or show how their system of perpetual debt creation literally relies on the issuance of new debt to prevent total collapse. That's another story for another day/thread whatever.

There's a lot of great info out there, a lot of BS out there, mis/dis information, and a lot of "who knows"... All I know is when you follow the money and have a better-than-general understanding of the product and concepts at play, it becomes quite apparent what high-level financiers are really doing, and a lot of what they're doing is shafting us while they rake it in... and it's not by accident, regardless of their excuses, IMO.

FINate

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2034 on: January 09, 2024, 06:36:35 PM »
When it comes down to it all forms of currency outside of direct barter are a glorified transferrable IOU. Regular currencies, crypto, mini gold ingots, stone wheels at the bottom of the ocean, etc all have value for commerce almost exclusively as a perceived store of value (ie, a glorified IOU). The ability of central banks to adjust supply is a novel financial tool that has proven immensely valuable through the ability to stabilize economies over the last century or so that they have been in use. Are there risks associated with that capability? Of course. Have there been bad actors that have used the printing press poorly? Of course. And that is why the Fed is, and should remain, as detached from the political process/control as possible.

Fractional reserve lending--a.k.a creating money out thin air--has existed as long as there have been lenders.   And believe it or not, private banks create way more money out of thin air than central banks.    And yes, the system implodes from time to time, which is why the guardrails and regulations look the way the do. 

Wrong again, telecaster. You do know that the reserves required by the federal reserve are 0. Zero. So they are literally creating debt (money) out of thin air with interest added from the get go.

I know what you were thinking about how the fractional reserve system allows a bank to lend X amount per each dollar they hold, thereby creating money from thin air. However, when the central bank issues currency to the big banks, there is a term for it. I think it's "reserve deposit" or something, I am not 100% sure. Either way, that only happens for account holders - those who have accounts with the central banks. And, for example, since the Fed has a zero-balance requirement and clearly puts out more cash then they have by creating it on-demand, they are in fact the largest issuer of "thin air" money that there is.

Hope you learned something new today. We all should, I know I did.

You have it backwards.  Reserve deposits are deposits member banks must make with the District Federal Reserve Bank to satisfy their reserve requirements. Member banks fund loans primarily through customer deposits. [old, but still relevant: https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/economic-perspectives/1977/ep-may-jun1977-part2-erdevig-pdf.pdf]

The central bank doesn't "issue currency" to member banks. Rather, member banks create currency when they lend.

If a member bank experiences a short-term liquidity squeeze it can borrow directly from the Fed discount window. In such cases the Fed creates new money, though this is less common because banks use this as a last resort because the terms are less favorable.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalreservebank.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fractionalreservebanking.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/discountwindow.asp

They DO often issue currency but you're correct that they don't "issue currency" - they issue debt in exchange for bonds, or, with interest/terms attached. It's not even currency because they don't require any reserves to issue it. They create more money out of thin air than other banks combined most likely. The fractional reserve is at minimum regulated to where they must have X amount of dollars to "lend" money that's technically non-existant based on the fact they they expect the debtor to pay and that allows them to maintain their program of fractional reserve banking.

The Fed does not utilize fractional reserve - the fed is the only one who is creating bills/digits/debt (whatever you prefer to call it) completely from thin air. From zero. They require absolutely nothing. So I understand what you're saying and maybe we'd both be correct in a way. Big banks possibly issue higher volume overall in sum, but they're limited supposedly by regulations (which they also break as a large majority are insolvent). The reserve is not limited, governed, or regulated by anyone in regards to what they decide to "lend", or buy. And of course, banks have their deposits from people and businesses so I'm not trying to say that ALL money in circulation is invaluable or created from thin air, just to clarify I'm not a (complete) idiot. lol

I think I'm pretty solid with my opinion but again I don't work for them and the information available comes from sources that surely aren't designed to paint them in a bad light or show how their system of perpetual debt creation literally relies on the issuance of new debt to prevent total collapse. That's another story for another day/thread whatever.

There's a lot of great info out there, a lot of BS out there, mis/dis information, and a lot of "who knows"... All I know is when you follow the money and have a better-than-general understanding of the product and concepts at play, it becomes quite apparent what high-level financiers are really doing, and a lot of what they're doing is shafting us while they rake it in... and it's not by accident, regardless of their excuses, IMO.

I think what you're describing is the Fed's Open Market Operation (OMO): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

This is the primary way the Fed manages M1 money supply, by buying/selling securities on the open market. This activity is done in response to meet FOMC objectives.

Indeed, the Federal Reserve doesn't need reserves or anything like that to lend or buy securities. That's by design, and a wonderful thing. The 2007-2008 financial crisis very likely would have resulted in 1930's level suffering if the Feds didn't aggressively pump tons of liquidity into the system. https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/august/temporary-reserves-liquidity-injection/

You may disagree with the design of the Federal Reserve System. Certainly the Hard Money, Austrian School, and now Crypto folks really dislike it.  But that doesn't make it fraudulent or a pyramid scheme. What we have came about democratically, and it's very transparent, though difficult to understand so ripe for conspiracy theories from those who want to create a problem in the mind of consumers because they have a product to sell.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2024, 06:38:54 PM by FINate »

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2035 on: January 10, 2024, 05:56:43 AM »
Somebody hacked the SEC's account this afternoon, posted that bitcoin ETFs were approved, and maybe traded on the $1,000 spike caused by the misinformation. Now bitcoin is about $750 lower than before the post.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-says-unauthorized-message-about-bitcoin-etf-approvals-not-accurate-221322008.html

Standard crypto stuff.

Haha - standard anti-crypto stuff.

What do you think would happen to the S&P if someone hacked the Fed's account and posted about big QE plans in the pipeline ? Would it reflect badly on the S&P ? or the Fed ?

This was in no way a failure of Bitcoin. The only thing proven here is that Bitcoin (which behaved exactly as would be expected) is more reliable and secure than the SEC (who got hacked).

And the only people affected were short-term traders who are only trying to pick each other's pockets anyway, so . . . yawn . . . whatever . . .

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2036 on: January 10, 2024, 07:58:18 AM »
Nobody 'hacked' the SEC.  This happened entirely on twitter.  The platform that Elon Musk has been busy cutting security (as well as all other services) on for months now.  Given Musk's history of manipulating crypto, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was directly involved.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2037 on: January 10, 2024, 08:41:39 AM »
Nobody 'hacked' the SEC.  This happened entirely on twitter.  The platform that Elon Musk has been busy cutting security (as well as all other services) on for months now.  Given Musk's history of manipulating crypto, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was directly involved.
Slander much?

maizefolk

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2038 on: January 10, 2024, 08:51:12 AM »
Within reason, I'm expecting (and will gladly accept my reasoning to be wrong as I'm a day trader and not a crypto trader) at LEAST 25% drop within a span of 3 days total, followed by a slight uptick and another 10% drop... I mean, there's infinite ways it could play out but let's just say for sake of simplicity, over a period of 5 to 7 days total, 30 to 40% drop. Before Jan 10th for sure IMHO.

Well we're now at January 10th.  The biggest drop I saw since you posted was a very brief 9% decline but definitely nothing in the 25-30% range. The USD price of bitcoin was $43.7k when this was posted and $45.2k as I write this.

@WayDownSouth now that the period you were predicting price moves in has passed would you care to talk about the reasoning that went into the prediction and how, if at all, your views have changed as you make future predictions as a result of this unexpected outcome?

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2039 on: January 10, 2024, 11:14:53 AM »
Nobody 'hacked' the SEC.  This happened entirely on twitter.  The platform that Elon Musk has been busy cutting security (as well as all other services) on for months now.  Given Musk's history of manipulating crypto, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was directly involved.

Wild speculation might be fun, but it looks like the SEC failed to properly manage the security of their X account - and the SEC got hacked.

SEC:   (Reuters)
An SEC spokesperson on Tuesday said the "unauthorized access" of its account by an "unknown party" had been revoked and the agency was working with law enforcement and others in the government to investigate the matter.

X:  (X)
We can confirm that the account @SECGov was compromised and we have completed a preliminary investigation. Based on our investigation, the compromise was not due to any breach of X’s systems. but rather due to an unidentified individual obtaining control over a phone number associated with the @SECGov account through a third party. We can also confirm that the account did not have two-factor authentication enabled at the time the account was compromised. We encourage all users to enable this extra layer of security. More information and tips on how to keep your account secure can be found in our Help Center

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2040 on: January 10, 2024, 11:27:25 AM »
Regardless, there's no reason at all for the SEC to be on any form of social media.

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2041 on: January 10, 2024, 11:43:32 AM »
Regardless, there's no reason at all for the SEC to be on any form of social media.
I wouldn't be surprised to see governments producing their own social media for press releases, notifications, etc. Its not like it's cutting edge tech any more. Might not be a bad idea actually, if there is risk of billionaires tweaking the knobs behind the scenes to affect government communication.

LateStarter

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2042 on: January 10, 2024, 11:48:20 AM »
Regardless, there's no reason at all for the SEC to be on any form of social media.

I agree. Yet they choose to . . .

ChpBstrd

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2043 on: January 10, 2024, 12:49:01 PM »
Regardless, there's no reason at all for the SEC to be on any form of social media.
I agree. Yet they choose to . . .
Another part of the story about why journalism no longer exists.

FINate

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2044 on: January 10, 2024, 12:54:21 PM »
Regardless, there's no reason at all for the SEC to be on any form of social media.
I wouldn't be surprised to see governments producing their own social media for press releases, notifications, etc. Its not like it's cutting edge tech any more. Might not be a bad idea actually, if there is risk of billionaires tweaking the knobs behind the scenes to affect government communication.

It wouldn't be terribly difficult and the government could make something that works better. They don't even need to provide a client app, though it would be easy to provide a reference implementation. Just come up with a protocol similar to RSS, add metadata for things like agency, message type, and so on for filtering. Cryptographically sign payloads so they can be authenticated by client apps, but otherwise just let these things float around to whoever is interested. Make them immutable and caching is a no brainer.

GuitarStv

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2045 on: January 10, 2024, 01:13:23 PM »
Regardless, there's no reason at all for the SEC to be on any form of social media.
I wouldn't be surprised to see governments producing their own social media for press releases, notifications, etc. Its not like it's cutting edge tech any more. Might not be a bad idea actually, if there is risk of billionaires tweaking the knobs behind the scenes to affect government communication.

It wouldn't be terribly difficult and the government could make something that works better. They don't even need to provide a client app, though it would be easy to provide a reference implementation. Just come up with a protocol similar to RSS, add metadata for things like agency, message type, and so on for filtering. Cryptographically sign payloads so they can be authenticated by client apps, but otherwise just let these things float around to whoever is interested. Make them immutable and caching is a no brainer.

Immutable cryptography?  Why . . . it could actually issue a new cryptocurrency for a legitimate reason!  Novel idea.

lifeanon269

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2046 on: January 10, 2024, 03:47:49 PM »
Looks like the bitcoin ETFs were officially approved by the SEC. Soon there will be retirement accounts and pensions with allocations of these bitcoin funds. Should be an interesting year.

https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2047 on: January 10, 2024, 03:52:18 PM »
Looks like the bitcoin ETFs were officially approved by the SEC. Soon there will be retirement accounts and pensions with allocations of these bitcoin funds. Should be an interesting year.

https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023

Was just working on a post about this after replying to a different post.. This is what I was waiting for, they said it was almost surely going to be approved by the 9th or 10th... No massive movement yet.

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2048 on: January 10, 2024, 03:59:24 PM »
Within reason, I'm expecting (and will gladly accept my reasoning to be wrong as I'm a day trader and not a crypto trader) at LEAST 25% drop within a span of 3 days total, followed by a slight uptick and another 10% drop... I mean, there's infinite ways it could play out but let's just say for sake of simplicity, over a period of 5 to 7 days total, 30 to 40% drop. Before Jan 10th for sure IMHO.

Well we're now at January 10th.  The biggest drop I saw since you posted was a very brief 9% decline but definitely nothing in the 25-30% range. The USD price of bitcoin was $43.7k when this was posted and $45.2k as I write this.

@WayDownSouth now that the period you were predicting price moves in has passed would you care to talk about the reasoning that went into the prediction and how, if at all, your views have changed as you make future predictions as a result of this unexpected outcome?

I haven't put a single dollar in yet on a short because it's going to be a very quick entry and I'm just not feeling it yet, I keep waiting for an opening, thought it was yesterday when I got an alert about a spike and was running to check and see if I should short but false flag.

I'm getting less and less likely to try and short it but am ready to at a moments notice if my parameters are met. Have a ton of different alarms ready to throw signals but nothing is panning out. The truth is more drama is happening than expected and more confusion. Didn't think it'd be this bad. Give me a couple more days because I'm really expecting something to pop (either up or down) any day/hour/minute now. I won't drag it on any longer than Monday evening, mustache promise.

Edit: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-approves-spot-bitcoin-etfs-for-trade-starting-thursday-a6e1417b?mod=home-page

I was confident this would happen yesterday but I was watching more for signals from a few specific stocks which didn't print anything noticeable or "strange" - at least not strange enough for me to warrant a short entry. Now that it's approved obviously my perspective changed seeing where the price is, HOWEVER, still expecting the same percentage drop over the same period of time. Will discuss Monday after we see where this goes!

WayDownSouth

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Re: What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation
« Reply #2049 on: January 10, 2024, 04:14:37 PM »
Somebody hacked the SEC's account this afternoon, posted that bitcoin ETFs were approved, and maybe traded on the $1,000 spike caused by the misinformation. Now bitcoin is about $750 lower than before the post.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-says-unauthorized-message-about-bitcoin-etf-approvals-not-accurate-221322008.html

Standard crypto stuff.


Seems kinda sketchy, same time the next day and they approve it. Sounds like someone accidentally published it a day early and they're covering their asses. Maybe not. Coincidence meter on this one is showing really low IMO.