Ukraine

[lemanfan]

Succession à la russe, first course.

Second course: reports of mutinies in the Russian MoD

Third course: reports of the Russian front collapsing near Bakhmut

Fourth course: A business jet often used by Lukashenko and his family and top brass left Belarus for Turkey this past night in a strange way.  Perhaps Europes last dicator is on the run, or he just tries to move his family to safety.

[BC_Goldman]

I don't know how I should feel about this. It's potentially good for Ukraine in the short term but what happens if he wins?

[lemanfan]

I don't know how I should feel about this. It's potentially good for Ukraine in the short term but what happens if he wins?

Local analysts near me speculates that this will be the birth of Russia's Dolkstoßlegende no matter who wins the internal Russian kerfuffle.  But that's on a 20 year time span.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Prigozhin's Wagner group has executed civilians, and Putin has ordered air strikes to kill civilians.  In my view, the best outcome for Ukraine is both men dead.

Flight tracking shows Putin's private jet left Moscow shortly before 3pm (Moscow time).  In the middle of a coup, no dictator sends their private jet away without them.

[lemanfan]

Amazingly enough, the traffic info on Google Maps shows a part of the current struggles.  The M2 and M4 highways south of Moscow are shown as blocked at the Oka river.   This is in line with reporting on Twitter of the current status.  This is 1,5 hours from the city center of Moscow by a regular car according to the same source. 

[BNgarden]

Fourth course: A business jet often used by Lukashenko and his family and top brass left Belarus for Turkey this past night in a strange way.  Perhaps Europes last dicator is on the run, or he just tries to move his family to safety.

The commitment is to theft and self-enrichment, not the country or governing.

[Travis]

As of 11:30 central time, several thousand Wagner troops are maybe an hour from Moscow and have received little resistance. They've shot down five Russian helicopters and a surveillance airplane. Of the three rail lines that go from Russia into Ukraine, Wagner controls one of them.

[lemanfan]

Multiple media outlets now report that Wagner stands down.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

[PeteD01]

Succession à la russe, first course.

Second course: reports of mutinies in the Russian MoD

Third course: reports of the Russian front collapsing near Bakhmut

Fourth course: A business jet often used by Lukashenko and his family and top brass left Belarus for Turkey this past night in a strange way.  Perhaps Europes last dicator is on the run, or he just tries to move his family to safety.

Apparently Putin´s chef found Putin´s goose not to be fully cooked - yet.
So we´ll have to wait a little longer for the main course.

[dividendman]

Succession à la russe, first course.

Second course: reports of mutinies in the Russian MoD

Third course: reports of the Russian front collapsing near Bakhmut

Fourth course: A business jet often used by Lukashenko and his family and top brass left Belarus for Turkey this past night in a strange way.  Perhaps Europes last dicator is on the run, or he just tries to move his family to safety.

Apparently Putin´s chef found Putin´s goose not to be fully cooked - yet.
So we´ll have to wait a little longer for the main course.

It looks like they reached some kind of an agreement... let's see if it holds.

[LennStar]

Yeah, disappointing. Seems they realized that if they let this go on for a few days more, it doesn't matter who wins because they will be austed for losing against Ukraine.

Local analysts near me speculates that this will be the birth of Russia's Dolkstoßlegende no matter who wins the internal Russian kerfuffle.  But that's on a 20 year time span.

DolCH not Dolk.

[Travis]

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1672694538735955969

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1672694353796513793

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672692778604670986

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1672694698602016768

Updates on what the arrangement appears to be. It's a headscratcher and not telling how this plays out.

[lemanfan]

DolCH not Dolk.

Sorry, my Swedish crept in.  Here it's "Dolkstötslegenden".  I was proud enough to get the ß in there even though I don't have it on my keyboard.  :)

[LennStar]

Into Belarus?
I wonder if anybody in that country was asked if they wanted a hot blooded, murderous bastard with a private army.

If you want to triuple think, that looks like a long orchestrated manouvre to let Wagner into Belrus and let them attack from there - of course without any intent or knowledge of Russia. We are enemies after all! Don't look at me, if Wagner goes to Kyiev!

DolCH not Dolk.

Sorry, my Swedish crept in.  Here it's "Dolkstötslegenden".  I was proud enough to get the ß in there even though I don't have it on my keyboard.  :)

I like how Swedish makes everything into plural (For a German).

[Travis]

Into Belarus?
I wonder if anybody in that country was asked if they wanted a hot blooded, murderous bastard with a private army.

If you want to triuple think, that looks like a long orchestrated manouvre to let Wagner into Belrus and let them attack from there - of course without any intent or knowledge of Russia. We are enemies after all! Don't look at me, if Wagner goes to Kyiev!

Luka brokered the deal, so he must think he's getting something out of it. It sounds like some to be determined part of Wagner gets conscripted into the army, and the rest either go home or go work for another PMC in Africa.

[blue_green_sparks]

Great, that MAGA Shaman ran a better insurrection attempt than Prigozhin.

[Sibley]

Aside from Belarus, how does this deal make Putin look anything but weak? Drop criminal charges and move to Belarus? If it's true that Putin's power is based on an appearance of strength, etc, he's going to be dead in short order.

[Radagast]

Great, that MAGA Shaman ran a better insurrection attempt than Prigozhin.

Yeah that was pretty sad. It still created about a weeks worth of Ukrainian strategic disruptions, and maybe hastened the demise of the regime by a month, but all in all I rate that one 2/10.

However it was rational. The Russian people and international community (China, EU, & Africa especially) would never have accepted Prigozhin, and his supplies would have run out after a few days.

[pecunia]

Aside from Belarus, how does this deal make Putin look anything but weak? Drop criminal charges and move to Belarus? If it's true that Putin's power is based on an appearance of strength, etc, he's going to be dead in short order.

So they made a deal that the Wagnerites are "excused" from this event and Prigozhin was allowed exile in Belarus.  Looking at history, just how honorable have the Russians been keeping deals? Is it very possible that the world will never hear from Prigozhin again?  Is it possible that the Wagnerites will show up on the front lines of the Ukrainian war?  If they move forward they are shot.  If they move backwards they are shot by other Russians.  I don't think Putin wants these people running around.  He will have plans for them.

[rocketpj]

Aside from Belarus, how does this deal make Putin look anything but weak? Drop criminal charges and move to Belarus? If it's true that Putin's power is based on an appearance of strength, etc, he's going to be dead in short order.

Progozhin is likely to fall out a window any day now, or possibly get a polonium injection.  Something that will make it clear to everyone who did it without being 'clear'.

[Sibley]

I'm sure Progozhin will be dead soon. Soon however is not now, and if Putin needs to look strong, is that's sufficient? I'm not a dictator nor Russian. But I suspect this isn't good for Putin, regardless if Progozhin turns up dead in 2 weeks.

[Radagast]

Prigozhin gave strong vibes of the criminal Riddick (Vin Diesel) killing and thus becoming the emperor of the Necromongers in Chronicles of Riddick. Too bad he didn't come out on top, would have made a great meme. "you keep what you kill"

[rocketpj]

Prigozhin gave strong vibes of the criminal Riddick (Vin Diesel) killing and thus becoming the emperor of the Necromongers in Chronicles of Riddick. Too bad he didn't come out on top, would have made a great meme. "you keep what you kill"

Given that he was executing prisoners with a sledgehammer and bragging about it, I'm glad he wasn't successful.  If nothing else, it brought the war home to all the Russians who are ignoring it and going about their business.  It's real and a lot of people are dying.

[SotI]

So, for you knowledgeable guys/gals out there: What was this pseudo-coup? FSB psyops with Wagner Group to identify anti-Putin resistance combined with open, but Russian deniable troup deployment to the Northern Ukraine borders via Belarus? *puzzled*

ETA: I can't believe that either party would be stupid enough to just run this "exercise" on a whim ... esp. if all the agencies knew about it up front.

[pecunia]

So, for you knowledgeable guys/gals out there: What was this pseudo-coup? FSB psyops with Wagner Group to identify anti-Putin resistance combined with open, but Russian deniable troup deployment to the Northern Ukraine borders via Belarus? *puzzled*

ETA: I can't believe that either party would be stupid enough to just run this "exercise" on a whim ... esp. if all the agencies knew about it up front.

So, you think it was a trick to draw non Putin supporters out into the open so they could be identified and dealt with?  Wow!  Maybe it all was a master plan of Putin's and his old friend Prigozhin.  Lukashenko might have been in on it too.  A masterful false flag operation of a sort.  Nothing in Russia seems quite honest.  Black is white and up is down.

[TomTX]

Great, that MAGA Shaman ran a better insurrection attempt than Prigozhin.

Wut? Wagner literally captured whole cities and destroyed attacking aircraft. Rostov-on-Don alone has a population of over a million people.

Prighozin definitely abandoned the effort very quickly - but the effectiveness of what they did was very high.

[scottish]

So, for you knowledgeable guys/gals out there: What was this pseudo-coup? FSB psyops with Wagner Group to identify anti-Putin resistance combined with open, but Russian deniable troup deployment to the Northern Ukraine borders via Belarus? *puzzled*

ETA: I can't believe that either party would be stupid enough to just run this "exercise" on a whim ... esp. if all the agencies knew about it up front.

So, you think it was a trick to draw non Putin supporters out into the open so they could be identified and dealt with?  Wow!  Maybe it all was a master plan of Putin's and his old friend Prigozhin.  Lukashenko might have been in on it too.  A masterful false flag operation of a sort.  Nothing in Russia seems quite honest.  Black is white and up is down.

Maybe Lukashenko was tired of working under the orders of the Russian military leadership & demanded change before his mercenary organization was destroyed by Ukraine?    Starting a revolution is kind of a big deal so it had to be something serious...

[Radagast]

So, for you knowledgeable guys/gals out there: What was this pseudo-coup? FSB psyops with Wagner Group to identify anti-Putin resistance combined with open, but Russian deniable troup deployment to the Northern Ukraine borders via Belarus? *puzzled*

ETA: I can't believe that either party would be stupid enough to just run this "exercise" on a whim ... esp. if all the agencies knew about it up front.

I think it was a combination of:
1) Dedicated-for-life employee of mob rage quitting and destroying some stuff out of pique when demoted
2) Hope that enough elites and commoners might join in to make something meaningful happen, but then they didn't

[Radagast]

I think this marks the beginning of the end. Coup attempts and large scale mutinies are typically associated with the 4th quarter of fascist states losing wars. I'm surprised Putin pushed it this far, either his working knowledge of Russian history is terrible, or his grip on reality is.

[Tyson]

I think this marks the beginning of the end. Coup attempts and large scale mutinies are typically associated with the 4th quarter of fascist states losing wars. I'm surprised Putin pushed it this far, either his working knowledge of Russian history is terrible, or his grip on reality is.

I'd say the latter.  Everyone (even regular people) engage in motivated reasoning.  But people in power have even less checks/balances against runaway self-aggrandizing.

[blue_green_sparks]

Great, that MAGA Shaman ran a better insurrection attempt than Prigozhin.

Wut? Wagner literally captured whole cities and destroyed attacking aircraft. Rostov-on-Don alone has a population of over a million people.

Prighozin definitely abandoned the effort very quickly - but the effectiveness of what they did was very high.

The MAGA crew had leading politicians running for their lives and almost succeeded in stopping the transfer of power using crude weapons and their muscles. They had commitment. Wagner took their armor for a drive and made a U-turn because of a phone call. No commitment. Exactly what you expect from mercenaries.

[Just Joe]

Perhaps promises of a payoff were made by Putin. Cash or resources. Still expecting Prigozhin to fall out a window/have a plane crash/develop a sudden illness...

[ChpBstrd]

Deutsche Bank tells investors some of their Russian shares are missing
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/deutsche-bank-tells-investors-some-their-russian-shares-are-missing-2023-06-26/

Germany's largest bank said in a note dated June 9 and viewed by Reuters that it had uncovered a shortfall in the shares that back the depositary receipts (DRs) the bank had issued before the Ukraine invasion. The shares have been held in Russia by a different depositary bank.

In the circular, Deutsche attributed the shortfall to a decision by Moscow to allow investors to convert some of the DRs into local stock. The conversion was carried out without the German bank's "involvement or oversight" and Deutsche was unable to reconcile the company shares with the depositary receipts.

Western investors keep lining up to plow money into Moscow, and then having their assets nationalized. Western oil companies have lost untold billions of their investors' money to Russian oligarchs.

[nereo]

Western investors keep lining up to plow money into Moscow, and then having their assets nationalized. Western oil companies have lost untold billions of their investors' money to Russian oligarchs.

For me this is a reminder for why investing in emerging economies carries additional risk. During periods of relative global tranquility, seemingly everyone wants to hop on this bandwagon, and from one point of view it makes so much sense - these are economies primed for expansion, where tens-of-millions of people may suddenly join the middle class in just a few years. I'm thinking of the all the 'BRIC' talk (Brazil, Russia, India & China) of the early 2000s.
Just in the last decade there's been plenty to spook investors in these markets.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The deal between Prigozhin and Putin strikes me as one sided, and I suspect there are secret details we don't know about.  Consider Putin's position - he can't seem weak, but doesn't want to lose his most effective military leader.  Prigozhin can't stand the Russian defense minister.  What if they secretly found a solution that makes everyone happy, instead?

For example: Prigozhin could move Wagner group into Belarus and attack Ukraine from there.  This would make Putin seem clever instead of weak, while Prigozhin no longer has to deal with the Russian defense minister he hates.  An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.  I understand why Ukraine celebrated the situation yesterday, but I think they should keep a careful eye on the location of Wagner mercenaries and their equipment.

[nereo]

An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.

I'm questioning why this would be "an excellent counter-offensive".  Conventional wisdom says it's much harder to attack than defend, and Russia failed miserably in the early months of this conflict trying to attack from multiple regions at once. This was back when they had all the transport and armored carriers, and before the Ukrainians had been provided with advanced weapon systems. It lead to a vastly over-extended Russian military that suffered catastrophic casualties and then quickly lost most of its gains.

What makes you think an additional front by Russia would go better this time?

[FIPurpose]

An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.

I'm questioning why this would be "an excellent counter-offensive".  Conventional wisdom says it's much harder to attack than defend, and Russia failed miserably in the early months of this conflict trying to attack from multiple regions at once. This was back when they had all the transport and armored carriers, and before the Ukrainians had been provided with advanced weapon systems. It lead to a vastly over-extended Russian military that suffered catastrophic casualties and then quickly lost most of its gains.

What makes you think an additional front by Russia would go better this time?

Especially by a mercenary group that could barely hold Bahkmut let alone an entire front.

[Sibley]

Washington Post is reporting that Prigozhin will be operating out of Belarus. Also skimming the article, it sounds like Russia is trying to brush everything under the rug, at least publicly.

[ChpBstrd]

An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.

I'm questioning why this would be "an excellent counter-offensive".  Conventional wisdom says it's much harder to attack than defend, and Russia failed miserably in the early months of this conflict trying to attack from multiple regions at once. This was back when they had all the transport and armored carriers, and before the Ukrainians had been provided with advanced weapon systems. It lead to a vastly over-extended Russian military that suffered catastrophic casualties and then quickly lost most of its gains.

What makes you think an additional front by Russia would go better this time?

Especially by a mercenary group that could barely hold Bahkmut let alone an entire front.

It's usually a good idea to attack an enemy from multiple directions, especially when existing lines of control are so heavily defended. A northern front would divert Ukraine's resources and turn their offensive into a defensive. Remember, Russia has more resources, money, production capability, and people. A war that lasts several years will exhaust Ukraine before it exhausts Russia.

Wagner's mercenaries have been called the most effective of Russia's fighting forces for eeking out a (costly, futile) victory in Bakmut. It will be interesting to see if the dissolution of Wagner and the absorption of the mercenaries can be done quickly, or if the whole affair has drawn resources away from the front just in time for a Ukrainian offensive. It will also be interesting to see if Russian coordination and leadership problems will extend to the mercenaries now that they are under government command.

Overall, the failed coup is bad news for Ukraine and the West. Putin's most serious (only?) challenger has been dispatched and exiled. Disjointed Russian command structures will be unified. The prospect for an extended Russian crisis that allows the Ukranians a chance to advance is gone. And, as noted above, there may have been anti-Putin forces within the military that were exposed and purged.

[pecunia]

How did Lukashenko convince Prigozhin to stop his advance?

Lukashenko -"You are a course and foul man, but you do love your troops.  You respect them."

Prigozhin - "I make this march for them.  Too many have died needlessly."

Lukashenko - "Putin has ordered that military databases be improved.  It's amazing that this was done so quickly.  We have the names of all your men, their wives and their children.  It would certainly be a shame if anything were to happen to all these innocent people."

Prigozhin - A silent cold stare

Lukashenko - "I'm glad you understand.  We will come to an agreement."

[Radagast]

An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.

I'm questioning why this would be "an excellent counter-offensive".  Conventional wisdom says it's much harder to attack than defend, and Russia failed miserably in the early months of this conflict trying to attack from multiple regions at once. This was back when they had all the transport and armored carriers, and before the Ukrainians had been provided with advanced weapon systems. It lead to a vastly over-extended Russian military that suffered catastrophic casualties and then quickly lost most of its gains.

What makes you think an additional front by Russia would go better this time?

Especially by a mercenary group that could barely hold Bahkmut let alone an entire front.

It's usually a good idea to attack an enemy from multiple directions, especially when existing lines of control are so heavily defended. A northern front would divert Ukraine's resources and turn their offensive into a defensive. Remember, Russia has more resources, money, production capability, and people. A war that lasts several years will exhaust Ukraine before it exhausts Russia.

Wagner's mercenaries have been called the most effective of Russia's fighting forces for eeking out a (costly, futile) victory in Bakmut. It will be interesting to see if the dissolution of Wagner and the absorption of the mercenaries can be done quickly, or if the whole affair has drawn resources away from the front just in time for a Ukrainian offensive. It will also be interesting to see if Russian coordination and leadership problems will extend to the mercenaries now that they are under government command.

Overall, the failed coup is bad news for Ukraine and the West. Putin's most serious (only?) challenger has been dispatched and exiled. Disjointed Russian command structures will be unified. The prospect for an extended Russian crisis that allows the Ukranians a chance to advance is gone. And, as noted above, there may have been anti-Putin forces within the military that were exposed and purged.

I have to disagree with most of these. Ukraine is in an antifragile state and will continue to grow stronger for the foreseeable future, while Russia is in a fragile state and will continue to grow weaker, until a breeze blows it over.

It has never been a good plan for Russia to attack from Belarus, as shown by the disaster of a first attempt when Russia was far stronger and Ukraine weaker. Ukraine would be on the defense with inside lines, while Wagner would have a terrible time managing supplies against a defense in depth. Ukraine would defeat the attack with a small number of its lower tier forces and quickly divert unused supplies to the main effort after. This would only be good for quickly disposing of Wagner in a way attempting to show some kind of honor to the plebes.

The rest of Europe the US and their allies are backing Ukraine, which means it has far, far more resources and productive capacity than Russia. Russia is behaving in a way such that this support will never dwindle. They will continue to bomb civilian targets, explode dams, may well explode a nuclear plant, and make threats and provocations which will guarantee continued western assistance at similar or greater levels.

Russia does not have a warfighting population advantage. It has a larger population, but the balance of casualties is nearly the same proportion. As Ukraine gains more Western equipment and Russia loses their first line equipment, the trend of casualty ratios will continue to increase in Ukraine's favor (offense vs offense and defense vs defense). Russia shares borders with no friendly nations, but numerous hostile ones. It is full of internal enemies. It has a very low population density and requires more people just to hold the country together. Ukraine is relatively compact and has no internal or external enemies except Russia and can dedicate everything to that task. Russia will certainly fall from a lack of soldiers before Ukraine will.

None of these are particularly close IMO, they all favor Ukraine by a good margin.

It's bad the mutiny failed so soon, but still far better than having not happened. Russia lost many valuable aircraft and an oil depot, supplies were disrupted for days, the attention of command was diverted at a critical period at the most critical place, a good portion of Russia's better soldiers can now no longer be relied on or integrated anytime soon. Several regular units declared for Prigozhin and now can't be trusted. Confidence is shaken, attention distracted. Purging people previously thought reliable will be a blow to the Russian army just as much as if Ukraine had eliminated the same people.

[GuitarStv]

How did Lukashenko convince Prigozhin to stop his advance?

Lukashenko -"You are a course and foul man, but you do love your troops.  You respect them."

Prigozhin - "I make this march for them.  Too many have died needlessly."

Lukashenko - "Putin has ordered that military databases be improved.  It's amazing that this was done so quickly.  We have the names of all your men, their wives and their children.  It would certainly be a shame if anything were to happen to all these innocent people."

Prigozhin - A silent cold stare

Lukashenko - "I'm glad you understand.  We will come to an agreement."

In Soviet Russia, excel file saves you!




(If your name is Putin.)


:P

[ChpBstrd]

According to the latest feed from CNN:

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday thanked the Wagner Group fighters who made the "right decision" and halted their advance.
"I thank those soldiers and commanders of the Wagner Group who made the only right decision — they did not go for fratricidal bloodshed, they stopped at the last line," Putin said in an address to the nation.
He also said those fighters would have the "opportunity to continue serving Russia by entering into a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other law enforcement agencies, or to return to your family and friends. Whoever wants to can go to Belarus."

This would suggest that Prigozhen's mutiny had its own little mutiny, and that's what stopped their trip to Moscow in the end. However, I find it unlikely that former Wagner soldiers will be able to simply walk away from the Ukraine war without being drafted or coerced into another "contract" as Putin implied. If Putin let them walk, that would be a reduction in force of thousands (tens of thousands?) of soldiers. I find that outcome unlikely. Is Putin really that eager to demilitarize and scatter the Wagner units while the military tracks down uninvolved and untrained people to draft?

[Telecaster]

The deal between Prigozhin and Putin strikes me as one sided, and I suspect there are secret details we don't know about.  Consider Putin's position - he can't seem weak, but doesn't want to lose his most effective military leader.  Prigozhin can't stand the Russian defense minister.  What if they secretly found a solution that makes everyone happy, instead?

For example: Prigozhin could move Wagner group into Belarus and attack Ukraine from there.  This would make Putin seem clever instead of weak, while Prigozhin no longer has to deal with the Russian defense minister he hates.  An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.  I understand why Ukraine celebrated the situation yesterday, but I think they should keep a careful eye on the location of Wagner mercenaries and their equipment.

 

There are tons of things we don't know about this situation. 

We do know that earlier this month Russian MOD announced plans to incorporate Wagner fighters into the regular military.   That would diminish Prigozhin's portfolio considerably.   So this was likely about Prigozhin trying to force Shiogu's hand to let Prigozhin stay in charge.  This likely would have required Putin's sign-off, which Putin didn't give.  But Putin allowed Prigozhin to escape to Belarus and operate Wagner from there where he is close to the action, but not actually in Russia where he can cause more trouble.

I find it extremely unlikely Wagner will try to attack from Belarus.   That would bring Belarus into the war, which they don't seem to want to do and Priozhin would still have to deal with Shiogu who is supplying him.   I don't see Shiogu supplying so much as BB gun at this point. 

I think the simplest explanation is best:   Prigozhin used his leverage to escape with his life and the ability to run Wagner, at least in overseas operations.   

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Much of the MSM coverage of this is terrible. I haven't had time to read much analysis on what happened and what it all means but this was the first article I ran across that actually provided a solid context for the current situation. A lot still doesn't make sense and we are missing critical information.

The idea that this whole thing was a sneaky way of opening up a Belarus front is the dumbest thing I've heard in a while. It's not like Russia can keep troop movements secret in the age of spy satellites, so if Wagner divisions start forming in Belarus, this will not have provided any cover for such an operation.

[zolotiyeruki]

The whole episode has me baffled as well. The idea of it being a false flag or a sneaky way to move Wagner to Belarus makes zero sense on any level. Six helicopters, a plane, and an oil refinery seem like a pretty steep price to pay in exchange for...what?  Prigozhin, as bad as he is, doesn't strike me as being the type to blindly rush into something ("Russians don't take a dump, son, without a plan"), and the sudden pullback when on the verge of victory (of some sort) was unexpected.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that Prigozhin overplayed his hand and Putin pulled out some sort of pocket aces. I've seen it speculated that Putin may have made some stronger-than-expected retaliatory threats to Prigozhin, and offered him a face-saving exile into Belarus. I don't quite understand what would prompt Prigozhin to trust Putin to keep his end of any bargain, though. Prigozhin will likely never feel safe the rest of his life.

As for the effect on Ukraine, I want to say that this is a win. A fresh, well-supplied Russian army bogged down within a couple dozen miles after entering Ukraine. Ukraine has had a *year* to fortify that northern border, and they've been doing it extensively. The terrain there, as I understand it, limits movement to the roads pretty well, and Ukraine is guarding (and mining) those roads.

The net effect, as I see it, is that Wagner is out of the fight for the time being, and that's a big loss to Russia. These are a lot of the better-trained, better-equipped, and more experienced and effective fighters Russia has, and now they're on the sidelines. Putin is trying to get a lot of them under Shoigu's command, but even if he gets some, he's lost a lot. Maybe he plans to strip Wagner of all their equipment and send it to the regular troops?

In other news, it sounds like Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro River at Kherson, and is expanding a bridgehead. That's also big trouble for Russia,  who recently shifted a lot of forces away from the Kherson region to reinforce areas further east.

[Travis]

The rumor mill is rife with what will become of Wagner's troops. Depending on who you're watching, up to 8000 may move to Belarus to do who knows what. Some other number may stay in Ukraine the be dispersed across the Russian army. Putin's brief speech earlier seemed to reinforce that these are the options; however, nobody has mentioned what has become of all the heavy weapons Wagner took to Rostov and Moscow. Are we to believe that a rebel force that shot down seven aircraft with expensive and effective air defense systems and deployed tanks against Russian cities is going to keep them? The idea of this being a complex move to gift Belarus with Wagner as a second army to strike at Kyiv would be the most politically destabilizing and complex way to make this happen when Putin could have simply asked Prigozhin to pick up and move.  Likewise the notion of rebels with blood on their hands getting to walk away is a headscratcher. The follow-up/fallout to this ordeal just isn't making any sense yet, no matter which way you try to orient it.

[markbike528CBX]

Much of the MSM coverage of this is terrible. I haven't had time to read much analysis on what happened and what it all means but this was the first article I ran across that actually provided a solid context for the current situation. A lot still doesn't make sense and we are missing critical information……snip..

I have found that https://www.understandingwar.org/  has a decent daily summary.

I’m also headscratching about this whole episode, and being bald, I can’t afford to do that much.

I remember a lecture at college, where the speaker noted that wars start because someone thinks they can win.
For the start of this war, I could readily see how Putin thought he could win.

Prigozhin, I’m clueless on the thought process.  Maybe a prevention of the loss of control of the Wagoner Group?

[LennStar]

Well, I won't say about wars, but rebellions start if the cost of enduring is higher than the cost of rebellion. Of course that's individual and subjective, but it has it's own dynamics.

That what you see in Iran. Just one more death, basically a daily occurance, that ignites the pressure chamber. The pressure builds up and there is one spark, unpredicatable and some people are out that aren't stopped immediately and others see: Oh, you can be successfull. And the protest swells.

That's what ended the GDR. Gorbatschovs decision to not send in the Russian tanks was the decisive point. People no longer had to fear to be shot, and there were too many to put in prison by then. (Most of the people protesting didn't even want the GDR to end, just reforms.) That's how the protests swelled from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands in several cities. (And before that the security troops refusing to beat or even shoot citizens).

The for me most likely events are that Shoigu had "won" against Wagner by having them incorporated into the army. The power base would have evaporated and as a loser in what is basically a mafia society, the life expectancy of Wagner's leader was very short.
So the cost of rebellion was seen as lower than the cost of enduring. I am pretty sure he hoped the normal army would help his troops or at least not stop him, Wagner being the hero of Bakhmut and all that.
But the support was not as big as he hoped so he ended, since risk of rebellion (near certain death) now seemed higher than risk of enduring (promise to be left in power somewhere).
But I really really want to know the deal he made with Putin.

[blue_green_sparks]

I don't consider it a real coup attempt because they are mercenaries with no real ideology or commitment other than being tired of getting shot at from behind and deprived of supplies by the Russian military. So yeah, just a liar's phone call is all it took to end it. These guys have messed-up personal reasons for being hired killers. Being dumped-on by Russia's military probably did inspire some solidarity amongst them. Yet we all know there is no honor amongst thieves. The Russian people for the most part don't give two hoots about any of it. Are they more brainwashed or afraid? Hard to tell. Eventually they may rise up, if times get worse for them.