Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 582527 times)

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1150 on: April 06, 2022, 08:29:28 AM »
I would also think Moldova would be clamoring to get into NATO....The news doesn't seem to cover this country. 

Moldova's constitution creates some barriers to NATO membership. But just since Russia invaded Ukraine, Moldova put in an application to join the EU:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldovan-president-says-moldova-applies-eu-membership-2022-03-03/

I think they were next on Putin's list after Ukraine.  Of course, they probably still are as Russians are still pounding Ukrainian cities.

One of Russias goals must be to connect land under it's control between Transnistria and Crimea.   People in Transnistria often have Russian passports already, but the one I actually know have a Romanian passport.   Since a EU passport is very handy for travel and working within the EU, he's happy for that.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1151 on: April 06, 2022, 09:12:38 AM »
https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/4/22961286/bbc-news-blocked-in-russia-ukraine-invasion-shortwave-radio

Will shortwave radio be a useful tool to for the West to reach people inside Russia if the Internet gets cut? Will people be so set in their beliefs that they reject everything that conflicts with the Kremlin message? Or will they publicly support the Kremlin and privately soak up the western news and hope for better times?

I find the news of Russians rejecting their Ukranian relative's news of the invasion to be most disturbing. Or perhaps the Russians fear their phones are being monitored.

We have that same hive mind here in the USA with the far-right messaging. Either those people repeat the message b/c they want the promised far-right outcome to take root or they simply believe the message to in the face of facts.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1152 on: April 06, 2022, 09:28:17 AM »
We have that same hive mind here in the USA with the far-right messaging. Either those people repeat the message b/c they want the promised far-right outcome to take root or they simply believe the message to in the face of facts.
There's no need to limit the application to only one end of the political spectrum.  Both sides have extremes that live in their own bubble.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1153 on: April 06, 2022, 09:38:20 AM »

I feel compelled to point out that when the League of Nations didn't work out it was dissolved and the UN was created. We could do that again. This whole permanent veto thing generally seems like a bad idea to the democrat in me.
Yes, but that is also why those big powers are in there. If they would not have gotten the veto, they would not be in, and the whole party would have bee meaningless.
It's the core problem of the UN.

Ah, btw. that with the atomic powers was of course meant back when it was founded. Since the bomb was basically a veto.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1154 on: April 06, 2022, 09:49:43 AM »
We have that same hive mind here in the USA with the far-right messaging. Either those people repeat the message b/c they want the promised far-right outcome to take root or they simply believe the message to in the face of facts.
There's no need to limit the application to only one end of the political spectrum.  Both sides have extremes that live in their own bubble.

Both sides have extremes that live in their own bubble - absolutely.  But the level of problem is not comparable between both sides.  With the political right in the US, these people seem pretty mainsteam . . . and have led to the elections of multiple insane representatives - Marjorie Greene, Madison Cawthorne, Paul Gosar, etc.

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1155 on: April 06, 2022, 09:58:17 AM »
I feel compelled to point out that when the League of Nations didn't work out it was dissolved and the UN was created. We could do that again. This whole permanent veto thing generally seems like a bad idea to the democrat in me.
Yes, but that is also why those big powers are in there. If they would not have gotten the veto, they would not be in, and the whole party would have bee meaningless.
It's the core problem of the UN.

Ah, btw. that with the atomic powers was of course meant back when it was founded. Since the bomb was basically a veto.

But the intent to form the UN goes back at least to the Inter-Allied Council in London on September 24th 1941 when there were no atomic powers. The UN charter was drafted on June 26th 1945 with the original five security council vetos. On June 26th 1945 there was only one were zero nuclear powers: the USA. But by the time in came into effect on October 24th 1945 the US was a nuclear power.

EDIT: our first successful test was the next month.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2022, 10:07:51 AM by PDXTabs »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1156 on: April 06, 2022, 10:42:32 AM »
We have that same hive mind here in the USA with the far-right messaging. Either those people repeat the message b/c they want the promised far-right outcome to take root or they simply believe the message to in the face of facts.
There's no need to limit the application to only one end of the political spectrum.  Both sides have extremes that live in their own bubble.

Both sides have extremes that live in their own bubble - absolutely.  But the level of problem is not comparable between both sides.  With the political right in the US, these people seem pretty mainsteam . . . and have led to the elections of multiple insane representatives - Marjorie Greene, Madison Cawthorne, Paul Gosar, etc.

Some of you guys across the border are better informed about the US than most of us that live here.

Another couple ideas that are off track.

You guys are into money.  I just saw a video about Ukrainian money.  Since these guys are in this nasty war, their money is no good.  Vladimir Putin is doing something that should raise your hackles.  He is essentially nullifying the 4 percent rule for Ukrainians.  If the mass murder, the baby killings, the shelling of homes and hospitals, the starvation of his own troops and the massive lies don't get to you this should.  It's a mega sanction against Ukraine.

I saw another video.  This one was about Poland.  Apparently, a lot of people cross the border and get jobs in Poland.  Many of these people have gone home to fight.  So, in addition to the millions of migrants that are flooding into Poland, they are losing a valuable part of their labor force.  Putin is essentially sanctioning Poland.

You may now return to your normal discussion.  I will return to my bubble in the dead center.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1157 on: April 06, 2022, 11:31:27 AM »
We have that same hive mind here in the USA with the far-right messaging. Either those people repeat the message b/c they want the promised far-right outcome to take root or they simply believe the message to in the face of facts.
There's no need to limit the application to only one end of the political spectrum.  Both sides have extremes that live in their own bubble.

Both sides have extremes that live in their own bubble - absolutely.  But the level of problem is not comparable between both sides.  With the political right in the US, these people seem pretty mainsteam . . . and have led to the elections of multiple insane representatives - Marjorie Greene, Madison Cawthorne, Paul Gosar, etc.
Which party has the crazier politicians would certainly make for an interesting debate, but that's probably out of place in this thread, so I will forebear :)

maizefolk

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1158 on: April 06, 2022, 11:48:03 AM »
I think we don't have a good sense of what the average Russian thinks. It's not like anyone is able to run actual opinion polls. And even 5-10% of Russians completely buying into Putin's lies would be enough to generate an awful lot of those gut wrenching stories about people being shelled and seeing their neighbors dead in the street while having their parents or relatives in Russia assuring them that what they're seeing isn't real.

Now it may very well be that most Russians do buy in. My point isn't that we know that they don't just that we really don't know at all. In the absence of hard data there's no harm (and a lot of good) in extending grace to individuals who didn't choose the country they were born into or live in, and at this point lack any power to change their governments' actions or who is in charge.

I saw another video.  This one was about Poland.  Apparently, a lot of people cross the border and get jobs in Poland.  Many of these people have gone home to fight.  So, in addition to the millions of migrants that are flooding into Poland, they are losing a valuable part of their labor force.  Putin is essentially sanctioning Poland.

I had another call with my colleague in Poland this morning. A lot has been made about how different the reception for Ukrainian refugees has been than other refugee crises. I don't think we on the other side of the Atlantic appreciate just how universally the refugees streaming out of Ukraine are small children and their mothers, while Ukrainian men are, if anything, going the other way.

He said Polish schools are struggling with how to handle and help huge numbers of Ukrainian children who don't speak polish but they're doing everything they can. That all through Warsaw everything from road signs to ATMs are being translated into Ukrainian (Cyrillic alphabet everywhere). It's really moving how much Poland (and other countries in eastern europe) are reworking their entire societies to welcome these folks.

There's still something powerful buried very deep in the human subconscious that responds to the need to help children and their mothers quite differently from other refugees.

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1159 on: April 06, 2022, 01:38:18 PM »
We have that same hive mind here in the USA with the far-right messaging. Either those people repeat the message b/c they want the promised far-right outcome to take root or they simply believe the message to in the face of facts.
There's no need to limit the application to only one end of the political spectrum.  Both sides have extremes that live in their own bubble.

Probably true but where I live, I get a big dose of the right end of spectrum. The crazy end at times. Very few left-leaning voices heard and when they do speak up they are pretty mild. Guarded perhaps?

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1160 on: April 06, 2022, 01:45:29 PM »
I've watched a number of these videos. Most people seem quite guarded about the war and Putin.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCl4R4M9YVfYjjPmILU2Ie1A

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1161 on: April 06, 2022, 04:16:09 PM »
Looks like they found another of those mass graves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lv6fbUIelEs

More information to follow.


Poundwise

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1162 on: April 06, 2022, 05:05:20 PM »
We have that same hive mind here in the USA with the far-right messaging. Either those people repeat the message b/c they want the promised far-right outcome to take root or they simply believe the message to in the face of facts.
There's no need to limit the application to only one end of the political spectrum.  Both sides have extremes that live in their own bubble.

Probably true but where I live, I get a big dose of the right end of spectrum. The crazy end at times. Very few left-leaning voices heard and when they do speak up they are pretty mild. Guarded perhaps?

I think if you go far left enough you start to complete the circle with respect to authoritarianism and bending of facts (i.e. Glenn Greenwald, Julian Assange, the "wellness" crowd).

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1163 on: April 06, 2022, 08:59:15 PM »
There's reporting that until recently, Ukraine forces had an air route into Mariupol, bringing supplies in and taking wounded out. Here's one thread I saw about it:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529463867092998

Also, there's satellite confirmation that Russian forces were digging in the Red Forest.  https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511649305089695745
I'm seeing threads from nuclear scientists, etc that indicate it isn't lethal levels of radiation, but their risk of cancer in future is definitely increased. I doubt Russia is going to tell the world the truth.
https://twitter.com/jrmygrdn/status/1509379039898841095
https://twitter.com/CherylRofer/status/1509328182331248649

And wasn't this type of vehicle used in the MASH tv show? https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1511722119125733382

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1164 on: April 06, 2022, 09:41:46 PM »
There's reporting that until recently, Ukraine forces had an air route into Mariupol, bringing supplies in and taking wounded out. Here's one thread I saw about it:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529463867092998


No direct evidence of the resupply runs, but it's good analysis to ponder "we now know Ukrainian helicopter pilots are ballsy (Belgorod raid), so what if they've been doing it the whole time in Mariupol and nobody noticed." It's a hypothesis worth considering. The two birds shot down last week had been making ammo/CASEVAC runs from the beginning and simply ran out of luck. If it turns out to be true, it's another dig at Russian tactics that they got away with it for so long.

Also, there's satellite confirmation that Russian forces were digging in the Red Forest.  https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511649305089695745
I'm seeing threads from nuclear scientists, etc that indicate it isn't lethal levels of radiation, but their risk of cancer in future is definitely increased. I doubt Russia is going to tell the world the truth.

There's quite a bit of debate about the Chernobyl situation. That they were digging, burning, and living in the forest literally down the street from the reactors sounds monumentally stupid, but on paper it shouldn't have been enough exposure to kill somebody in less than a month (assuming all they did was breath it). If somehow they were eating and drinking the isotopes as well - who knows. One of the benefits (for us) of the northern front is that we got a Belorussian account of a lot of Russian activities and now those sources will dry up soon.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1165 on: April 07, 2022, 06:26:24 AM »
There's reporting that until recently, Ukraine forces had an air route into Mariupol, bringing supplies in and taking wounded out. Here's one thread I saw about it:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529463867092998


No direct evidence of the resupply runs, but it's good analysis to ponder "we now know Ukrainian helicopter pilots are ballsy (Belgorod raid), so what if they've been doing it the whole time in Mariupol and nobody noticed." It's a hypothesis worth considering. The two birds shot down last week had been making ammo/CASEVAC runs from the beginning and simply ran out of luck. If it turns out to be true, it's another dig at Russian tactics that they got away with it for so long.

There are also reports that the Russians got lucky and spotted one of the helicopters going to/coming from Mariupol and shot it down. The only source I can immediately find is obviously full of Russian propaganda, but I saw it elsewhere last night. Obviously, we don't know for sure - but how have they managed to keep fighting if they weren't getting ammo somehow? It's been a month. It makes sense that somehow they've been getting supplies in.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1166 on: April 07, 2022, 07:17:37 AM »
There's reporting that until recently, Ukraine forces had an air route into Mariupol, bringing supplies in and taking wounded out. Here's one thread I saw about it:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529463867092998


No direct evidence of the resupply runs, but it's good analysis to ponder "we now know Ukrainian helicopter pilots are ballsy (Belgorod raid), so what if they've been doing it the whole time in Mariupol and nobody noticed." It's a hypothesis worth considering. The two birds shot down last week had been making ammo/CASEVAC runs from the beginning and simply ran out of luck. If it turns out to be true, it's another dig at Russian tactics that they got away with it for so long.

There are also reports that the Russians got lucky and spotted one of the helicopters going to/coming from Mariupol and shot it down. The only source I can immediately find is obviously full of Russian propaganda, but I saw it elsewhere last night. Obviously, we don't know for sure - but how have they managed to keep fighting if they weren't getting ammo somehow? It's been a month. It makes sense that somehow they've been getting supplies in.

We know now. Ukrainian government admitting they've been sending flights in and out of Mariupol for some time. And sending SOF teams behind the lines to break the trains.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1511970054631473161

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1167 on: April 07, 2022, 07:43:06 AM »
That is probably close to how it really went down. Ultimately, it is the consequence of having an arrogant and cognitively limited leader in charge:


IS RUSSIA’S INVASION A CASE OF COERCIVE DIPLOMACY GONE WRONG?

"In effect, when Ukraine and NATO held firm, it forced Putin to either make good on the threat of force or publicly back down once the scheduled exercises concluded. In this case, Putin sought to preserve his coercion “credibility” over his humanity. This disastrous war is the result of Putin’s coercive diplomacy gone wrong."

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/is-russias-invasion-a-case-of-coercive-diplomacy-gone-wrong/

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1168 on: April 07, 2022, 07:27:08 PM »
Video of a visit to Chernobyl: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512194930491510787

Info about the dogs: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210422-the-guards-caring-for-chernobyls-abandoned-dogs

Some additional info about the radiation readings: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512230103278837763

I'm not a nuclear expert, but its possible that the previous speculation was not necessarily factoring in things such as digging in radioactive dirt, sleeping on radioactive dirt, breathing in radioactive dust, possibly ingesting radioactive particles, etc. For a month.

I don't want to be those Russian soldiers.

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1169 on: April 07, 2022, 11:31:56 PM »
Just remember to duck and cover. It is 100 seconds to midnite.
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1170 on: April 08, 2022, 05:47:25 AM »
Video of a visit to Chernobyl: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512194930491510787

Info about the dogs: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210422-the-guards-caring-for-chernobyls-abandoned-dogs

Some additional info about the radiation readings: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512230103278837763

I'm not a nuclear expert, but its possible that the previous speculation was not necessarily factoring in things such as digging in radioactive dirt, sleeping on radioactive dirt, breathing in radioactive dust, possibly ingesting radioactive particles, etc. For a month.

I don't want to be those Russian soldiers.
If you just walk through the forest then it is not that bad. Don't eat anything from there, especially not mushrooms, don't burn stuff and avoid water holes. That's where the peaks are. (In Germany is still advised to not eat wild boar often because of that concentration effect)
However the soldiers digged trenches - and that meant they digged up the most radioactive dust that had been digged under the surface before.
And they breathed it in.
It's unlikely they will all die tomorrow, but a lot of them will get cancer in the future as the minimum result. But the Russian army never cared about losses.

Omy

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1171 on: April 08, 2022, 06:31:05 AM »
Just remember to duck and cover. It is 100 seconds to midnite.
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/

It was 100 seconds as of January 20, 2022. How much does the threat of WWIII adjust the clock?

Glenstache

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1172 on: April 08, 2022, 09:59:22 AM »
Video of a visit to Chernobyl: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512194930491510787

Info about the dogs: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210422-the-guards-caring-for-chernobyls-abandoned-dogs

Some additional info about the radiation readings: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512230103278837763

I'm not a nuclear expert, but its possible that the previous speculation was not necessarily factoring in things such as digging in radioactive dirt, sleeping on radioactive dirt, breathing in radioactive dust, possibly ingesting radioactive particles, etc. For a month.

I don't want to be those Russian soldiers.
If you just walk through the forest then it is not that bad. Don't eat anything from there, especially not mushrooms, don't burn stuff and avoid water holes. That's where the peaks are. (In Germany is still advised to not eat wild boar often because of that concentration effect)
However the soldiers digged trenches - and that meant they digged up the most radioactive dust that had been digged under the surface before.
And they breathed it in.
It's unlikely they will all die tomorrow, but a lot of them will get cancer in the future as the minimum result. But the Russian army never cared about losses.
As a quick aside, the HBO dramatization "Chernobyl" that came out a couple of years ago is quite good and worth watching.
Second note: I wonder how many of those young soldiers played the video game Call of Duty, which featured a shockingly detailed recreation of Pripyat and radiation was a known danger in the environment.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1173 on: April 08, 2022, 10:22:27 AM »
Video of a visit to Chernobyl: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512194930491510787

Info about the dogs: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210422-the-guards-caring-for-chernobyls-abandoned-dogs

Some additional info about the radiation readings: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512230103278837763

I'm not a nuclear expert, but its possible that the previous speculation was not necessarily factoring in things such as digging in radioactive dirt, sleeping on radioactive dirt, breathing in radioactive dust, possibly ingesting radioactive particles, etc. For a month.

I don't want to be those Russian soldiers.
If you just walk through the forest then it is not that bad. Don't eat anything from there, especially not mushrooms, don't burn stuff and avoid water holes. That's where the peaks are. (In Germany is still advised to not eat wild boar often because of that concentration effect)
However the soldiers digged trenches - and that meant they digged up the most radioactive dust that had been digged under the surface before.
And they breathed it in.
It's unlikely they will all die tomorrow, but a lot of them will get cancer in the future as the minimum result. But the Russian army never cared about losses.
As a quick aside, the HBO dramatization "Chernobyl" that came out a couple of years ago is quite good and worth watching.
Second note: I wonder how many of those young soldiers played the video game Call of Duty, which featured a shockingly detailed recreation of Pripyat and radiation was a known danger in the environment.

Given that what I'm seeing indicates that the young men getting conscripted are coming from very poor areas/families and are amazed at the evidence of paved roads, indoor plumbing, etc, my guess would be none.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1174 on: April 08, 2022, 10:36:14 AM »
Everything in this article was known well before the Russian attack:

"If a single person can be credited with Ukraine’s surprising military successes so far — protecting Kyiv, the capital, and holding most other major cities amid an onslaught — it is Zaluzhnyy, a round-faced 48-year-old general who was born into a military family, and appointed as his country’s top uniformed commander by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2021. Zaluzhnny and other Ukrainian commanders had been preparing for a full-on war with Russia since 2014."


Ukraine’s 'iron general' is a hero, but he's no star
Meet Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who's quietly leading the fight against Russia's invaders.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/08/ukraines-iron-general-zaluzhnyy-00023901

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1175 on: April 08, 2022, 11:02:18 AM »
"It remains to be seen how Moscow will readjust its military strategy in light of the serious setbacks it has sustained over the past month. But unless Putin decides to admit defeat and completely withdraw Russian forces, Ukrainian fighters will have every incentive to use insurgent tactics to push them out of any territory they seek to capture or simply hold. Because unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side, they should remain a powerful tool for Ukraine to employ, augmenting their conventional combat power and the influx of Western supplied arms."

The Next Few Weeks of Hell

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/of-roadside-bombs-and-drones-putins-looming-insurgency-problem/

former player

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1176 on: April 08, 2022, 01:04:40 PM »
"It remains to be seen how Moscow will readjust its military strategy in light of the serious setbacks it has sustained over the past month. But unless Putin decides to admit defeat and completely withdraw Russian forces, Ukrainian fighters will have every incentive to use insurgent tactics to push them out of any territory they seek to capture or simply hold. Because unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side, they should remain a powerful tool for Ukraine to employ, augmenting their conventional combat power and the influx of Western supplied arms."

The Next Few Weeks of Hell

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/of-roadside-bombs-and-drones-putins-looming-insurgency-problem/
You have not grasped the full intent of Russia.  It will not need to worry about an insurgency because it is planning the genocide of Ukrainians in any part of Ukraine it controls.  There can be no insurgency if there are no people.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?r=177tk&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1177 on: April 08, 2022, 01:31:19 PM »
"It remains to be seen how Moscow will readjust its military strategy in light of the serious setbacks it has sustained over the past month. But unless Putin decides to admit defeat and completely withdraw Russian forces, Ukrainian fighters will have every incentive to use insurgent tactics to push them out of any territory they seek to capture or simply hold. Because unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side, they should remain a powerful tool for Ukraine to employ, augmenting their conventional combat power and the influx of Western supplied arms."

The Next Few Weeks of Hell

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/of-roadside-bombs-and-drones-putins-looming-insurgency-problem/
You have not grasped the full intent of Russia.  It will not need to worry about an insurgency because it is planning the genocide of Ukrainians in any part of Ukraine it controls.  There can be no insurgency if there are no people.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?r=177tk&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

Yep. Look at Bucha.

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1178 on: April 08, 2022, 01:37:03 PM »
"It remains to be seen how Moscow will readjust its military strategy in light of the serious setbacks it has sustained over the past month. But unless Putin decides to admit defeat and completely withdraw Russian forces, Ukrainian fighters will have every incentive to use insurgent tactics to push them out of any territory they seek to capture or simply hold. Because unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side, they should remain a powerful tool for Ukraine to employ, augmenting their conventional combat power and the influx of Western supplied arms."

The Next Few Weeks of Hell

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/of-roadside-bombs-and-drones-putins-looming-insurgency-problem/
You have not grasped the full intent of Russia.  It will not need to worry about an insurgency because it is planning the genocide of Ukrainians in any part of Ukraine it controls.  There can be no insurgency if there are no people.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?r=177tk&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

Yep. Look at Bucha.

Wouldn't that just make a new Afghanistan for the soviets Russians though?  One right on their doorstep?

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1179 on: April 08, 2022, 01:51:02 PM »
"It remains to be seen how Moscow will readjust its military strategy in light of the serious setbacks it has sustained over the past month. But unless Putin decides to admit defeat and completely withdraw Russian forces, Ukrainian fighters will have every incentive to use insurgent tactics to push them out of any territory they seek to capture or simply hold. Because unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side, they should remain a powerful tool for Ukraine to employ, augmenting their conventional combat power and the influx of Western supplied arms."

The Next Few Weeks of Hell

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/of-roadside-bombs-and-drones-putins-looming-insurgency-problem/
You have not grasped the full intent of Russia.  It will not need to worry about an insurgency because it is planning the genocide of Ukrainians in any part of Ukraine it controls.  There can be no insurgency if there are no people.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?r=177tk&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

Yep. Look at Bucha.

Wouldn't that just make a new Afghanistan for the soviets Russians though?  One right on their doorstep?
They're not planning to control Ukraine by installing a puppet government over the existing population.  They are planning to exterminate it.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1180 on: April 08, 2022, 01:55:45 PM »
"It remains to be seen how Moscow will readjust its military strategy in light of the serious setbacks it has sustained over the past month. But unless Putin decides to admit defeat and completely withdraw Russian forces, Ukrainian fighters will have every incentive to use insurgent tactics to push them out of any territory they seek to capture or simply hold. Because unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side, they should remain a powerful tool for Ukraine to employ, augmenting their conventional combat power and the influx of Western supplied arms."

The Next Few Weeks of Hell

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/of-roadside-bombs-and-drones-putins-looming-insurgency-problem/
You have not grasped the full intent of Russia.  It will not need to worry about an insurgency because it is planning the genocide of Ukrainians in any part of Ukraine it controls.  There can be no insurgency if there are no people.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?r=177tk&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

Yep. Look at Bucha.

Wouldn't that just make a new Afghanistan for the soviets Russians though?  One right on their doorstep?
They're not planning to control Ukraine by installing a puppet government over the existing population.  They are planning to exterminate it.

That was the plan in Afghanistan too though, wasn't it?  9% of the Afghan population died under Soviet control, and 1/3rd of Afghanis fled the country.  Soviet officials in Kabul said "if only 1 million people were left in the country, they would be more than enough to start a new society".

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1181 on: April 08, 2022, 01:56:54 PM »
You have not grasped the full intent of Russia.  It will not need to worry about an insurgency because it is planning the genocide of Ukrainians in any part of Ukraine it controls.  There can be no insurgency if there are no people.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?r=177tk&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

Yep. Look at Bucha.

Wouldn't that just make a new Afghanistan for the soviets Russians though?  One right on their doorstep?
They're not planning to control Ukraine by installing a puppet government over the existing population.  They are planning to exterminate it.

Right, this seems to be something that Russia excels at.  Kill or move the existing population of an area, then move Russians or pro-Russian peoples in.  That's what happened to the Crimean Tatars.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1182 on: April 08, 2022, 02:02:56 PM »
"It remains to be seen how Moscow will readjust its military strategy in light of the serious setbacks it has sustained over the past month. But unless Putin decides to admit defeat and completely withdraw Russian forces, Ukrainian fighters will have every incentive to use insurgent tactics to push them out of any territory they seek to capture or simply hold. Because unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side, they should remain a powerful tool for Ukraine to employ, augmenting their conventional combat power and the influx of Western supplied arms."

The Next Few Weeks of Hell

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/of-roadside-bombs-and-drones-putins-looming-insurgency-problem/
You have not grasped the full intent of Russia.  It will not need to worry about an insurgency because it is planning the genocide of Ukrainians in any part of Ukraine it controls.  There can be no insurgency if there are no people.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?r=177tk&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

It is a quote from the article which was written by this guy:

Scott Sweetow is a former U.S. Army cavalry scout and retired Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives senior executive with expertise in explosives, intelligence, and counterterrorism. He is president of S3 Global Consulting.

Iīm not qualified to even guess any of this.

But what I do know is that IEDīs are already being used, so it is kind of a moot point by now as asymmetric fighting has already begun.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2022, 02:07:55 PM by PeteD01 »

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1183 on: April 08, 2022, 03:38:35 PM »
"It remains to be seen how Moscow will readjust its military strategy in light of the serious setbacks it has sustained over the past month. But unless Putin decides to admit defeat and completely withdraw Russian forces, Ukrainian fighters will have every incentive to use insurgent tactics to push them out of any territory they seek to capture or simply hold. Because unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side, they should remain a powerful tool for Ukraine to employ, augmenting their conventional combat power and the influx of Western supplied arms."

The Next Few Weeks of Hell

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/of-roadside-bombs-and-drones-putins-looming-insurgency-problem/
You have not grasped the full intent of Russia.  It will not need to worry about an insurgency because it is planning the genocide of Ukrainians in any part of Ukraine it controls.  There can be no insurgency if there are no people.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?r=177tk&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

It is a quote from the article which was written by this guy:

Scott Sweetow is a former U.S. Army cavalry scout and retired Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives senior executive with expertise in explosives, intelligence, and counterterrorism. He is president of S3 Global Consulting.

Iīm not qualified to even guess any of this.

But what I do know is that IEDīs are already being used, so it is kind of a moot point by now as asymmetric fighting has already begun.
I'm sure Mr Sweetow knows of what he talks, but he is not talking of an insurgency (despite using the word).  "Insurgency" to me implies a fight against an authority in control, and if insurgencies work it is because they are willing to use worse methods than that authority is willing to use to maintain power.  I think that where the Russians are in control they will (and already are) using the most extreme methods possible to maintain control, to the extent of the complete obliteration of both population and infrastructure.  No real insurgency is possible in those circumstances.  So the fight by the Ukrainians will be carried out from areas not currently under Russian control, using methods such as the drones Mr Sweetow mentions.  But that is less an insurgency and more a new (and very effective) way of fighting a war against conventional forces.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1184 on: April 08, 2022, 04:49:58 PM »
"It remains to be seen how Moscow will readjust its military strategy in light of the serious setbacks it has sustained over the past month. But unless Putin decides to admit defeat and completely withdraw Russian forces, Ukrainian fighters will have every incentive to use insurgent tactics to push them out of any territory they seek to capture or simply hold. Because unconventional and asymmetric tactics tend to favor the militarily weaker side, they should remain a powerful tool for Ukraine to employ, augmenting their conventional combat power and the influx of Western supplied arms."

The Next Few Weeks of Hell

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/of-roadside-bombs-and-drones-putins-looming-insurgency-problem/
You have not grasped the full intent of Russia.  It will not need to worry about an insurgency because it is planning the genocide of Ukrainians in any part of Ukraine it controls.  There can be no insurgency if there are no people.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?r=177tk&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

It is a quote from the article which was written by this guy:

Scott Sweetow is a former U.S. Army cavalry scout and retired Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives senior executive with expertise in explosives, intelligence, and counterterrorism. He is president of S3 Global Consulting.

Iīm not qualified to even guess any of this.

But what I do know is that IEDīs are already being used, so it is kind of a moot point by now as asymmetric fighting has already begun.
I'm sure Mr Sweetow knows of what he talks, but he is not talking of an insurgency (despite using the word). 

Absolutely. I didnīt even think of thinking of it as a traditional insurgency, so that would be pure semantics.


"Insurgency" to me implies a fight against an authority in control, and if insurgencies work it is because they are willing to use worse methods than that authority is willing to use to maintain power.  I think that where the Russians are in control they will (and already are) using the most extreme methods possible to maintain control, to the extent of the complete obliteration of both population and infrastructure.  No real insurgency is possible in those circumstances. 

No, absolutely not.
On the other hand, Russia has not been able to control very much in this war,  propaganda notwithstanding, so the idea that Russia is under full control of when and where an insurrection were to appear does not appear plausible.
Of course, accepting the Russian delusion and assuming that the wannabe occupier has established control to a degree that an insurrection is impossible, an insurrection would indeed be impossible. But that is a tautology.
In the real world, the capability of Russia to prevent or suppress an insurgency with their too small, poorly organized and shrinking military power in the vast country of Ukraine is seriously in question; with some evidence that insurgent activity has already emerged, meaning that prevention has already failed.



So the fight by the Ukrainians will be carried out from areas not currently under Russian control, using methods such as the drones Mr Sweetow mentions.  But that is less an insurgency and more a new (and very effective) way of fighting a war against conventional forces.

But that is the subtext of the article: the Russo-Ukrainian war is being turned, as we speak, into a real world laboratory.


« Last Edit: April 08, 2022, 05:17:50 PM by PeteD01 »

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1185 on: April 08, 2022, 07:10:48 PM »
I'm sure Mr Sweetow knows of what he talks, but he is not talking of an insurgency (despite using the word).  "Insurgency" to me implies a fight against an authority in control, and if insurgencies work it is because they are willing to use worse methods than that authority is willing to use to maintain power.  I think that where the Russians are in control they will (and already are) using the most extreme methods possible to maintain control, to the extent of the complete obliteration of both population and infrastructure.  No real insurgency is possible in those circumstances.  So the fight by the Ukrainians will be carried out from areas not currently under Russian control, using methods such as the drones Mr Sweetow mentions.  But that is less an insurgency and more a new (and very effective) way of fighting a war against conventional forces.

I agree with your first sentence but not the rest of it. In particular the war so far is mostly national military fighting national military for control of territory. They are mostly wearing uniforms and mostly using legal weapons (at least on the Ukrainian side?). But if Russia were in control of the country and there was an insurgency the insurgents would not be wearing uniforms. They would not particularly care if any given weapon was legal. They probably wouldn't be taking prisoners or providing medical care to the enemy. They could even use tactics like those of Hannie Schaft and Freddie Oversteegen who would pick up German soldiers at the bar before luring them away to be murdered over and over again because they could blend into the civilian population.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1186 on: April 08, 2022, 07:20:33 PM »
Ukraine shares a land border with Russia (unlike Afganistan).   Will Ukrainians who have lost everything eventually take the war into Russia itself?    I know this isn't the same as the Ukrainian military entering Russia...

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1187 on: April 08, 2022, 07:27:31 PM »
I'm sure Mr Sweetow knows of what he talks, but he is not talking of an insurgency (despite using the word).  "Insurgency" to me implies a fight against an authority in control, and if insurgencies work it is because they are willing to use worse methods than that authority is willing to use to maintain power.  I think that where the Russians are in control they will (and already are) using the most extreme methods possible to maintain control, to the extent of the complete obliteration of both population and infrastructure.  No real insurgency is possible in those circumstances.  So the fight by the Ukrainians will be carried out from areas not currently under Russian control, using methods such as the drones Mr Sweetow mentions.  But that is less an insurgency and more a new (and very effective) way of fighting a war against conventional forces.

I agree with your first sentence but not the rest of it. In particular the war so far is mostly national military fighting national military for control of territory. They are mostly wearing uniforms and mostly using legal weapons (at least on the Ukrainian side?). But if Russia were in control of the country and there was an insurgency the insurgents would not be wearing uniforms. They would not particularly care if any given weapon was legal. They probably wouldn't be taking prisoners or providing medical care to the enemy. They could even use tactics like those of Hannie Schaft and Freddie Oversteegen who would pick up German soldiers at the bar before luring them away to be murdered over and over again because they could blend into the civilian population.

There are multiple instances of Russian soldiers being fed poisoned food by Ukrainian women. Some have died. That is very much in line with Hannie Schaft and Freddie Oversteegen tactics. The locations of the instances I've seen online were not in towns being held by Russia, but who knows?

When your home country is attacked, I'm not necessarily going to hold the defenders to all the rules of war. Granny wants to poison half an invader battalion?  Go for it, I'm not going to protest.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1188 on: April 08, 2022, 07:31:45 PM »
When your home country is attacked, I'm not necessarily going to hold the defenders to all the rules of war. Granny wants to poison half an invader battalion?  Go for it, I'm not going to protest.

I agree entirely. Or perhaps I should say that if I woke up in occupied Ukraine tomorrow with a bunch of hollow point ammo the Hague convention wouldn't stop me from using it.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1189 on: April 08, 2022, 07:53:48 PM »
Ukraine shares a land border with Russia (unlike Afganistan).   Will Ukrainians who have lost everything eventually take the war into Russia itself?    I know this isn't the same as the Ukrainian military entering Russia...

At the time, Afghanistan shared a land border with the USSR.

A big part of the long term strategic calculus for the Soviet invasion was to start pushing their southern border down towards Pakistan and ultimately to the Indian ocean where they would have access to the warm water ports the USSR otherwise largely lacked.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1190 on: April 08, 2022, 08:09:32 PM »
Taking a step back, it's increasingly clear this is a proxy war for the future of the international system: Bretton Woods post-WW2 US-led global order versus multi-polar Eurasianism. Some (e.g. Zvi Mowshowitz) have been emphatically making this point, while it is also an obvious corollary to some of Peter Zeihan's theses. The basic idea is defeat of Ukraine on Europe's doorstep would be a refutation of the Pax Americana and a signal to various countries to take more seriously their regional geopolitical intentions through violent means, most notably, China. Notwithstanding Europe's--and in particular, Germany's--terrible energy geopolitics (anti-nuclear power, anti-fracking), the coordination of the West against Russia appears to more closely falsify Zeihan's predictions than signal the collapse of the prevalent global order, but perhaps the true test has not yet come.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1191 on: April 08, 2022, 08:17:14 PM »
Ukraine shares a land border with Russia (unlike Afganistan).   Will Ukrainians who have lost everything eventually take the war into Russia itself?    I know this isn't the same as the Ukrainian military entering Russia...

What would be the result?  Would it wake up the Russian populace and make it take more interest in this war? Would it put some fear into the Russian government and make them honestly discuss peace?  Would they use it as an excuse to blow even more of Ukraine away?

Since they want a genocide anyway, I guess it would justify it in their eyes to target the cities.

dang1

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1192 on: April 08, 2022, 09:14:37 PM »
..Bretton Woods post-WW2 US-led global order versus multi-polar Eurasianism. .. true test has not yet come.
well, if so, maybe Russia should be waging this invasion a little bit better. Maybe the true test is if Russia can hold together, and not break up into even smaller pieces

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1193 on: April 08, 2022, 09:43:49 PM »
..Bretton Woods post-WW2 US-led global order versus multi-polar Eurasianism. .. true test has not yet come.
well, if so, maybe Russia should be waging this invasion a little bit better. Maybe the true test is if Russia can hold together, and not break up into even smaller pieces
Of course, it's two-sided: can the western alliance see past its myopic abandonment of fossil fuels (i.e. Germany; France has done quite well with nuclear power), versus: can Russia survive the prestige-hit due to its incoherent military (but don't forget Russia could be much more destructive if it wanted to be; if Putin feels truly cornered, we will see what's actually possible). That is what I mean by "true tests". What we've seen so far may be a prelude to more commital decisions.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1194 on: April 08, 2022, 10:34:30 PM »
It's looking really, really, really bad for Mariupol. For a while some helicopters were secretly getting in supplies, but it looks like the Russians are onto them.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61035565

..Bretton Woods post-WW2 US-led global order versus multi-polar Eurasianism. .. true test has not yet come.
well, if so, maybe Russia should be waging this invasion a little bit better. Maybe the true test is if Russia can hold together, and not break up into even smaller pieces
Of course, it's two-sided: can the western alliance see past its myopic abandonment of fossil fuels (i.e. Germany; France has done quite well with nuclear power), versus: can Russia survive the prestige-hit due to its incoherent military (but don't forget Russia could be much more destructive if it wanted to be; if Putin feels truly cornered, we will see what's actually possible). That is what I mean by "true tests". What we've seen so far may be a prelude to more commital decisions.

Of course, the West could be much more destructive if we wanted to be.

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lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1196 on: April 08, 2022, 10:54:59 PM »
It's looking really, really, really bad for Mariupol. For a while some helicopters were secretly getting in supplies, but it looks like the Russians are onto them.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61035565

..Bretton Woods post-WW2 US-led global order versus multi-polar Eurasianism. .. true test has not yet come.
well, if so, maybe Russia should be waging this invasion a little bit better. Maybe the true test is if Russia can hold together, and not break up into even smaller pieces
Of course, it's two-sided: can the western alliance see past its myopic abandonment of fossil fuels (i.e. Germany; France has done quite well with nuclear power), versus: can Russia survive the prestige-hit due to its incoherent military (but don't forget Russia could be much more destructive if it wanted to be; if Putin feels truly cornered, we will see what's actually possible). That is what I mean by "true tests". What we've seen so far may be a prelude to more commital decisions.

Of course, the West could be much more destructive if we wanted to be.
Of course, but if you take Russia at all seriously, we are talking about flavors of nuclear war at this point.

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1197 on: April 09, 2022, 12:01:03 AM »
I ran across this today: Niki Proshin explaining from St Petersburg that every babushka in Russia now knows how to use a VPN. EDITed to add: that's a joke. Not every babushka has internet access which he gets into in the end of the video.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2022, 12:03:16 AM by PDXTabs »

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1198 on: April 09, 2022, 02:03:43 AM »
(i.e. Germany; France has done quite well with nuclear power)
I don't know where this fairy tale comes out from again and again. France has higher electricity prices and has to import energy. Mostly from Germany (admittedly from our coal power plants, partly fired by Russian coal).

Also 30% of Uranium used in EU comes from Russia. See a problem here? That stuff is even harder to get from somewhere else than coal, gas or oil.
Not to mention that renewable energies are cheaper than nuclear power by a factor of 2 or 3, and that does not include the cost of the nuclear waste or any insurance, since nobody insure an atomic power plant. The premium would be so high that even after doubling current subventions it would never have a chance to recoup the costs.

What the last conservative government did do wrong was murdering the green energy increase because it threatened the oligopol of the 4 big energy companies, who ignored renewables until about 2010.

----

I think you all underestimated the how far Russia is from controlling any bigger area. They have what, 1 soldier per kmē? And that is counting all the logistic staff etc.
Either you control a few points and let the enemy run around wherever they want in wide stretches of land, or you spread them so thin that any 2-month-ago-civilist with his granddad's Kalashnikow can kill all occupation forces in a village with a bit of luck and patience.
Russia doesn't intend to occupy. They also can't. And now they know they also can't control Ukraine politically. So it will be obliterated, the same as when Putin poisens journalists.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1199 on: April 09, 2022, 06:05:58 AM »
Let's see if I didn't mangle the editing.  If I did, it won't be the last time.

(i.e. Germany; France has done quite well with nuclear power)
I don't know where this fairy tale comes out from again and again. France has higher electricity prices and has to import energy. Mostly from Germany (admittedly from our coal power plants, partly fired by Russian coal).


I believe France had some temporary issues with some reactors and some maintenance outages.  Otherwise, I've heard the opposite.  I don't live in Germany, but I have the idea that there are some folks there who have excellent PR selling preferred their preferred energy sources to the people which sometimes are not the most pragmatic.  Nuclear power produces power 24 hours a day and 365 days a year.  (unless there are maintenance and repair outages)

https://www.enappsys.com/interconnectorreview/


Also 30% of Uranium used in EU comes from Russia. See a problem here? That stuff is even harder to get from somewhere else than coal, gas or oil.
Not to mention that renewable energies are cheaper than nuclear power by a factor of 2 or 3, and that does not include the cost of the nuclear waste or any insurance, since nobody insure an atomic power plant. The premium would be so high that even after doubling current subventions it would never have a chance to recoup the costs.


I think the cheapness is caused by the experience in building nuke plants being lost over the years.  In addition, there are tremendous bureaucratic obstacles.  If nuclear were allowed to flower like other forms of energy, the cost would come down.  The economy of scale seems to work for everything else.  Technological innovation seems to work for everything else.  Look at electronics.  Look at food production.  Look at the history of manufacturing automobiles.  Automobiles were a toy for the rich at one time.

The thing I see many times is that the cost of intermittent wind and solar energy is compared to the cost of the huge "dinosaur" plants.  Even the cost of those should be less after the first few are built.  There are many types of nuclear plants that are touted as being cheaper and smaller.  However, unfortunately, these are only on the drawing boards.  I fear that there are just too many people out there that wish to stifle these new options and never give them a chance.  It's a little like the luddites of years past smashing textile machinery.  They just don't want it to exist.

Australia mines a lot of Uranium.  I read a short article that they recently found some ore deposits in Wyoming.  Canada mines Uranium.  It has the world's largest deposits.  Spent fuel can be reprocessed for reactors.  Newer reactors on the drawing board can use Thorium and there is 3 to 4X as much of that in the world as Uranium.  There's plenty of uranium in the world. Unlike fossil fuels,it is an extremely dense form of energy production.  You don't need a whole lot.


What the last conservative government did do wrong was murdering the green energy increase because it threatened the oligopoly of the 4 big energy companies, who ignored renewables until about 2010.
----

This is probably true.  There is some evidence out there that at least the big oil companies are not too keen on having their industry displaced by newer cleaner forms of energy.  The exception is the natural gas industry because they back up wind and solar energy at the times when they do not produce due to the inconsistency of Mother Nature.


I think you all underestimated the how far Russia is from controlling any bigger area. They have what, 1 soldier per kmē? And that is counting all the logistic staff etc.
Either you control a few points and let the enemy run around wherever they want in wide stretches of land, or you spread them so thin that any 2-month-ago-civilist with his granddad's Kalashnikov can kill all occupation forces in a village with a bit of luck and patience.
Russia doesn't intend to occupy. They also can't. And now they know they also can't control Ukraine politically. So it will be obliterated, the same as when Putin poisons journalists.

One of the previous posts has said that Russia wants genocide.  Russia won't have to worry about the population if they greatly thin the herd.  They have also exported people.  Russia has a long history of slave prison camps.  Their country is not very productive.  To produce you need land, labor and capital.  They've got the land and may have productive Ukraine back.  Exporting people gives them labor in Siberia where they may need it.  The sales of gas to help when intermittent solar and wind are unavailable is an excellent source of capital for them.  I've read for a "Conventional" invasion, the soldier to civilian ratio is one to 50.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2004/05/09/a-proven-formula-for-how-many-troops-we-need/5c6dbfc9-33f8-4648-bd07-40d244a1daa4/

40 million in Ukraine / 50 = 800,000  Basically, all of Russia's army.