Coronavirus Weekly Update

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

[REDACTED]--sorry for going off topic

I'm realizing this is drifting way off topic and I apologize so let me try to veer back on target with this observation:
Just 20 days in, daily average deaths are already out of the confidence interval for the IHME model. And actually, IHME was outside of their interval about 2 weeks into the forecast period...even my casual 30 minutes with Excel is doing better than the IHME predictions so far! Dr. Birx, feel free to call me anytime.

[GuitarStv]

It's fair to say Trump was strangely and loudly bullish on HCQ and it was totally inappropriate for him to do so (even if bolstering an unproven approach is the most Trumpian thing he could do--and Trump is predictably Trumpian). The troubling aspect of the initial reaction wasn't those with a measured response of "Trump is bolstering a highly speculative, unproven drug backed by a bit of theory and some shaky--but promising--early observational studies" but rather those who seem to think "if the President says it, then it must be false!".

Donald Trump is a well documented, inveterate liar.

Just on the topic of coronavirus he has made the following public lies this year:
- weather has a strong effect on coronavirus
- the coronavirus will go away/weaken in April
- the coronavirus will just disappear on it's own
- deaths by suicide will outnumber coronavirus deaths because of economic shutdown
- coronavirus numbers in the US are looking much better and coming down everywhere
- the coronavirus pandemic is under control in the US
- 99% of coronavirus cases are totally harmless
- the US has the lowest mortality rate in the world
- Mexico is to blame for covid-19 surges in the Southwest
- Children are 'virtually immune' to coronavirus
- the US has experienced the smallest economic contraction of any major western nation
- The Trump White House “inherited” a “broken,” “bad,” and “obsolete” test for the coronavirus from Obama
- “Anybody that needs a test, gets a test. We—they’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful”
- Private-health-insurance companies agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments, extend insurance coverage to these treatments, and to prevent surprise medical billing
- Google engineers are building a website to help Americans determine whether they need testing for the coronavirus and to direct them to their nearest testing site
- The United States has outpaced South Korea’s COVID-19 testing
- America has developed a testing capacity unmatched and unrivaled anywhere in the world, and it’s not even close
- The United States has conducted more testing than all other countries together
- Cases are going up in the U.S. because we are testing far more than any other country
- “I’ve always known this is a real—this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic … I’ve always viewed it as very serious.”
- This pandemic “was something nobody thought could happen … Nobody would have ever thought a thing like this could have happened.”
- Pharmaceutical companies are going to have vaccines very soon
- the FDA had approved the antimalarial drug chloroquine to treat COVID-19 as a treatment
- Injecting bleach/cleaning solutions is effective for fighting coronavirus
- The coronavirus is “going to go away without a vaccine … and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.”
- Taking hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 is safe and effective
- A coronavirus vaccine could be ready by Election Day
- Governors do not need all the medical equipment they are requesting from the federal government
- Hospitals are reporting an artificially inflated need for masks and equipment
etc.


The natural action of any person should therefore be to distrust all information coming from the President.  There are simply too few kernels of truth contained in his statements to make it worth filtering through the large number of lies.  It is a generally safe assumption that anything the president says is a lie until it is confirmed by a trustworthy source.

[Hvillian]

Respectfully requesting we steer this back towards the thread topic . . .weekly Covid numbers and discussion of the related models, data, etc.  I generally stay out of Off Topic, but assume we can find another thread to discuss policy/political response.  Thanks.

[JGS1980]

Hey folks, let's keep things civil.  Stick to facts, numbers, and data analysis.  JGS

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USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
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Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady

[Life in Balance]

Thanks for keeping this updated!  The global numbers are useful to see.

One small thing:  Colombia the country is not spelled with a 'u'. 

[Glenstache]

I was curious about why Belgium was so high and found a BBC article discussing it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210

The numbers appear to be due to a late/poor response that played out badly for nursing homes, plus a different way of counting covid deaths. If there were a number of similar-symptom deaths in the same facility and there were other confirmed cases of covid, even the deaths where testing was not done were included in the count. I suspect this is more accurate on the whole, even if imprecise. So, it appears that Belgium is likely doing a bit worse than some of its neighboring countries, but the numbers likely overstate the differences due to how deaths are counted.

[deborah]

I’m from Australia, where we had it under control and for months were hovering around 5 deaths per million. We still have an enormous number of citizens overseas desperately trying to get back, but there were very few flights. They were trickling back in and being quarantined for 14 days mainly in Sydney or Melbourne. Unfortunately, covid19 escaped quarantine in Melbourne, got into aged care homes, and the last few months they’ve been trying to contain it again (flights to Melbourne were cancelled, so repatriation has really slowed as well). It’s been extremely difficult, but they seem to have done it. Now we’re going to (hopefully) be hovering at around 35 deaths per million, and will expand our repatriation flights again.

It’s just so difficult to stomp on when it escapes.

It’s also worth noting that there are now 121 deaths per million in the world as a whole.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady

Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.

[Abe]

Some state updates for more granular data in the US. The first graph is my standard cases and deaths graph, but from the beginning of the year to show the overall trajectory across the states. The second is a graph of deaths, but scaled across states. This shows that the majority of the ~900 deaths a day in the US are in just three states (CA, TX, FL). The third are cases scaled across states, showing that the COVID diagnoses continue across the country in varying amounts, but not just in the big three for deaths.

I'd like to scale these by population, but haven't had the time to code in the population of all 50 states. If anyone has a table of this, I'd appreciate it.

[Abe]

I found the population estimates. Here's the latest 7-day moving average of daily cases per 100k:

North Dakota   41.7
South Dakota   27.8
Missouri   24.4
Wisconsin   24.2
Arkansas   23.5
Iowa   23.0
Oklahoma   22.9
South Carolina   21.9
Tennessee   21.7
Alabama   19.4
Nebraska   18.5
Utah   18.0
Kansas   16.9
Kentucky   16.6
Mississippi   16.5
Georgia   15.8
Texas   15.2
Idaho   15.1
Illinois   14.3
Delaware   13.6
Indiana   13.5
Montana   13.2
Florida   12.7
Puerto Rico   12.4
Louisiana   12.2
North Carolina   11.9
Virginia   11.8
Alaska   11.2
West Virginia   11.1
Wyoming   10.2
Maryland   10.2
Minnesota   10.0
Nevada   9.6
Ohio   9.2
Rhode Island   9.2
California   8.7
Michigan   8.3
Hawaii   8.3
District of Columbia   7.2
Colorado   6.9
Arizona   6.6
Pennsylvania   6.5
Washington   6.0
Massachusetts   5.3
New Mexico   5.3
Connecticut   5.2
Oregon   4.7
New Jersey   4.5
New York   3.8
New Hampshire   2.8
Maine   2.2
Vermont   1.1

[wenchsenior]

Dammit, Wisconsin!  What is going on up there?

[EscapeVelocity2020]

9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady

Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.

I really hope you are right, but I really think you are wrong...  at best, the US has stabilized at 5k before heading in to the fall. 

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady

Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.

I really hope you are right, but I really think you are wrong...  at best, the US has stabilized at 5k before heading in to the fall.

On the one hand, my 4 week lag model I posted weeks ago predicted through the first 22 predicted days 17,853 deaths versus an actual of 17,832 deaths (per covidtracking.com) so it is fitting pretty well. On the other hand, today there were 150 deaths over prediction which is a rather big anomaly. Part of the problem seems to be variation in the timeliness in different states in officially reporting (FL is behind by a median of two weeks). As different states ramp up and down, the effective lag in data is shifting.

Overall, the case and hospitalization data should be solid and all of that continues to predict a downward trend for the next couple of weeks. After that, we will learn if the pause in case decline we are now seeing is school-related (which would predict younger people infected, and hence, a low IFR and continued declines in daily deaths) or some other broader resurgence (which would predict a leveling off in the decline of daily deaths). I'm too lazy to look for data showing the age distribution of new cases which would settle this question quicker

 Today had a high increase in cases (47K) but it took nearly a million tests to find those cases. Youyang Gu mentioned that his model doesn't(!) use case data because it's not predictive. I can make sense of that early on when low testing capacity made cases a bad signal but lately the fit to lagged cases is quite good.

[RetiredAt63]

We're starting to see school related cases here.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

The US has surpassed 200,000 Covid deaths today (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) - truly unbelievable and tragic no matter what context you try to put it in (other than, I guess, that 'it could have been much worse if we did nothing').

[EscapeVelocity2020]

9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady

Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.

I really hope you are right, but I really think you are wrong...  at best, the US has stabilized at 5k before heading in to the fall.

On the one hand, my 4 week lag model I posted weeks ago predicted through the first 22 predicted days 17,853 deaths versus an actual of 17,832 deaths (per covidtracking.com) so it is fitting pretty well. On the other hand, today there were 150 deaths over prediction which is a rather big anomaly. Part of the problem seems to be variation in the timeliness in different states in officially reporting (FL is behind by a median of two weeks). As different states ramp up and down, the effective lag in data is shifting.

Overall, the case and hospitalization data should be solid and all of that continues to predict a downward trend for the next couple of weeks. After that, we will learn if the pause in case decline we are now seeing is school-related (which would predict younger people infected, and hence, a low IFR and continued declines in daily deaths) or some other broader resurgence (which would predict a leveling off in the decline of daily deaths). I'm too lazy to look for data showing the age distribution of new cases which would settle this question quicker

 Today had a high increase in cases (47K) but it took nearly a million tests to find those cases. Youyang Gu mentioned that his model doesn't(!) use case data because it's not predictive. I can make sense of that early on when low testing capacity made cases a bad signal but lately the fit to lagged cases is quite good.

I appreciate you providing your reasoning behind your prediction.  And a 4 week lag makes it very straightforward if IFR and reporting delay were to remain constant, to predict the upcoming numbers using covidtracking.com.

Any thoughts on what a 'twindemic' (confounding the Coronavirus data with seasonal flu data) might do?  I have heard that testing and receiving timely results will again be strained since there is no easy way to differentiate the symptoms early on.

[Abe]

Will provide citations when I have time, but the latest data in Europe shows similar to the US: mostly younger people getting infected. I don't think we'll have a good number on the children's rates because we usually don't swab them unless it is really needed due to the traumatic experience and high false negative rate.

[Abe]

Will provide citations when I have time, but the latest data in Europe shows similar to the US: mostly younger people getting infected. I don't think we'll have a good number on the children's rates because we usually don't swab them unless it is really needed due to the traumatic experience and high false negative rate.

Do you think it's more because younger people are out and about more (work/social/both) or the virus has shifted to be worse for young people?

Any info as to if it's more/less/same severity?

Less severe as the number of hospitalization / known infections is much lower in nearly all states and countries this time around than in the spring. We know it's a real resurgence because hospitalizations have gone up in Europe, but still it is much less than in the spring despite many more people testing positive due to expanded testing capacity. (Table 3 in https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/country-overviews).

Causes are almost certainly a relaxation of restrictions, but the higher-risk/older people are (anecdotally) either being more cautious, already had COVID and recovered, or died in the first wave. Lower-risk people are doing more activities in general than they did in the spring. I have not seen any data to suggest that hospitalization after infection in high-risk patients is any lower than before, but the death rate is marginally lower from data coming out of ICUs in the US. That being said, 10% of hospitalized patients in Houston (which I follow the closest) have died over the course of the last 2 months. This corresponds to 1.3% of known infections. The latest estimate from the University of Texas is that 20% of the population of 7m, or 1.4m people, have had COVID. This gives an estimated fatality rate of around 0.17%, and is similar to revised estimates of 0.1-0.5% in the spring.

Obviously age is a critical determinant in survival. Infection fatality rates based on countries with good serology and contact tracing are now estimated to be <0.1% for people less than 45, 0.2-0.7% for those 45-65, and 2-7% for 65 and older.

[Abe]

I've vacillated in my opinion between increased numbers due to co-infection of COVID and influenza, and decreased numbers due to better hygiene reducing influenza cases. I've kind of come to the conclusion that we will see a significant splitting in trajectories based on a given location's overall compliance with masks, flu vaccines, etc. Time will tell!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady

Last two weeks were impacted by Labor Day reporting lag. I estimate this shifted ~400 deaths out of the week ending 9/10 into the latest reported week. Next week should be 4,400-4,800.

I really hope you are right, but I really think you are wrong...  at best, the US has stabilized at 5k before heading in to the fall.

On the one hand, my 4 week lag model I posted weeks ago predicted through the first 22 predicted days 17,853 deaths versus an actual of 17,832 deaths (per covidtracking.com) so it is fitting pretty well. On the other hand, today there were 150 deaths over prediction which is a rather big anomaly. Part of the problem seems to be variation in the timeliness in different states in officially reporting (FL is behind by a median of two weeks). As different states ramp up and down, the effective lag in data is shifting.

Overall, the case and hospitalization data should be solid and all of that continues to predict a downward trend for the next couple of weeks. After that, we will learn if the pause in case decline we are now seeing is school-related (which would predict younger people infected, and hence, a low IFR and continued declines in daily deaths) or some other broader resurgence (which would predict a leveling off in the decline of daily deaths). I'm too lazy to look for data showing the age distribution of new cases which would settle this question quicker

 Today had a high increase in cases (47K) but it took nearly a million tests to find those cases. Youyang Gu mentioned that his model doesn't(!) use case data because it's not predictive. I can make sense of that early on when low testing capacity made cases a bad signal but lately the fit to lagged cases is quite good.

I didn't want to be right, but I'm not surprised that the numbers didn't dip below 5k.  It's also disconcerting that the positive cases are trending significantly back up.  I look forward to hearing what you are thinking....

[EscapeVelocity2020]

@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Also, not to take this too far off-topic, but how do you square Trump saying America has turned the corner with reality?  You seem to be more objective than I am, so what is the un-biased opinion toward where America is headed in the coming months?

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
3. Belgium [858] +2
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From a USA-centric point of view: I would add that southern states like Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina (Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arizona were already there) have finally begun to cross northeastern states like Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland in regards to Covid Mortality per Capita. It's an inflection point in the data. I would also note that the rate of deaths in those southern states has not really decreased in the last month, so they have a long way to go as they refuse to take more restrictive measures. It's a shit show, really.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/georgia/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/south-carolina/

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Also, in one of the hardest hit states, there is this

Texas is the only largely populated state still using the free, entry-level reporting system provided by the federal government, commonly called NEDSS. At the beginning of the pandemic, it had no way of electronically tracking case investigations or conducting contact tracing, where close contacts of those infected are tracked down and advised to self-isolate.

In April, the health agency rushed to build a separate system for those critical operations, called Texas Health Trace, which they have so far paid $1.1 million to develop. Months later, some local health departments are still working to sync their databases with it.

[Abe]

The NY Times' per-capita map is really telling. Almost all the hardest hit counties are in the Southeast. Also, a large percentage of younger adults who otherwise wouldn't be at high risk are, because of obesity and other diseases. The maps are almost overlapping, except Kentucky and West Virginia (good job you two!).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#map
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/18/us/coronavirus-underlying-conditions.html

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

@lost_in_the_endless_aisle Also, not to take this too far off-topic, but how do you square Trump saying America has turned the corner with reality?  You seem to be more objective than I am, so what is the un-biased opinion toward where America is headed in the coming months?

My deepest underlying belief is that it is too soon to tell and we are not understanding all of the relevant information to reliably predict more than a couple of months out, if that. Some things I got wrong earlier in the year:
1) early estimates of a 2-3% IFR in the spring seemed to high but I still thought it could be 1-2% until some of the serology results started to come back indicating it is much lower
2) I believed in late April/early May the attack rates could be much higher than what we're actually seeing in most places, suggesting either significant pre-existing immunity in the population and/or a low HIT due to variability in susceptibility and overdispersion of spread
3) when the case curves started to turn over and crash in FL, TX, etc., I expected that trend to play out in the rest of the US faster than it has so far--and it now seems parts of Europe may have somewhat a bigger resurgence than I expected

Regarding Trump, he is always going to give positive spin. I can make an argument in favor and another argument against his statement but they would each just represent an amalgam of assumptions about the future and political spin. Of course, the risk-averse and cautious nature of public health officials such as Fauci require they keep their distance from more optimistic interpretations. Being gloomy and wrong is a preferable outcome to being upbeat and possibly wrong; for the case of Trump, reverse that statement.

Thanks(?) to my various mood disorders, I go from catastrophic thinking to severe optimism, which allows me to sample many different mental models of the pandemic and to update my views based on new information. Currently, I would expect the rise in US cases to plateau and then begin to fall slowly again. Note that while cases have increased, 7 day average positivity rate has fallen below 5%, indicating some of the case count trend is a function of more intensive testing. The US will muddle through winter and vaccinations will proceed Q1-Q3 of 2021. There will be a few concerted efforts to do a lessons-learned on this ordeal but they will be largely ignored in mainstream coverage in favor of politically motivated interpretations. Partisans will either believe Trump killed 200K people or that he saved 2M people (both, of course, will be wrong).

Oh, and my last week death prediction was 4400-4800, while reported (on covidtracking.com) was 5187. I looked at my spreadsheet again and found no errors so I can only conclude my model is right and reality is wrong!

[RetiredAt63]

Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago.  The difference is that school started.  We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources.  We shall see . . . .

[GuitarStv]

Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago.  The difference is that school started.  We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources.  We shall see . . . .

Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party.  I suspect that may have played into the equation.

[RetiredAt63]

Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago.  The difference is that school started.  We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources.  We shall see . . . .

Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party.  I suspect that may have played into the equation.

You are right, but don't cases start going up about 2 weeks later?.  It seems forever ago.  And now we are tightening up again.  I think large private gatherings should be massively discouraged, they can't take the same precautions as are done at restaurants and bars. 

[Glenstache]

Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago.  The difference is that school started.  We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources.  We shall see . . . .

Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party.  I suspect that may have played into the equation.

You are right, but don't cases start going up about 2 weeks later?.  It seems forever ago.  And now we are tightening up again.  I think large private gatherings should be massively discouraged, they can't take the same precautions as are done at restaurants and bars.

... and in that vein, DeSantis is opening up Florida and removing all restrictions on business capacity. Florida is going to be a shitshow in a few weeks. It is frustrating to watch wishful thinking and political calculation win out over scientific understanding of epidemiology.

[JGS1980]

Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago.  The difference is that school started.  We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources.  We shall see . . . .

Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party.  I suspect that may have played into the equation.

You are right, but don't cases start going up about 2 weeks later?.  It seems forever ago.  And now we are tightening up again.  I think large private gatherings should be massively discouraged, they can't take the same precautions as are done at restaurants and bars.

... and in that vein, DeSantis is opening up Florida and removing all restrictions on business capacity. Florida is going to be a shitshow in a few weeks. It is frustrating to watch wishful thinking and political calculation win out over scientific understanding of epidemiology.

Here's a question. Assuming the quest for full opening is byproduct of political expediency... will Floridian politicians close-up again after the election results are in? OR, will they double down regardless of the effect on their population's health?

[GuitarStv]

Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago.  The difference is that school started.  We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources.  We shall see . . . .

Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party.  I suspect that may have played into the equation.

You are right, but don't cases start going up about 2 weeks later?.  It seems forever ago.  And now we are tightening up again.  I think large private gatherings should be massively discouraged, they can't take the same precautions as are done at restaurants and bars.

... and in that vein, DeSantis is opening up Florida and removing all restrictions on business capacity. Florida is going to be a shitshow in a few weeks. It is frustrating to watch wishful thinking and political calculation win out over scientific understanding of epidemiology.

Here's a question. Assuming the quest for full opening is byproduct of political expediency... will Floridian politicians close-up again after the election results are in? OR, will they double down regardless of the effect on their population's health?

I suspect it depends on whether or not they expect to personally profit from continuing to endanger the people under their control.

[RetiredAt63]

Our cases are up, even though we are still mstly doing what we were doing a few weeks ago.  The difference is that school started.  We have tightened up a bit, and upped testing resources.  We shall see . . . .

Cases are going up about a month after we moved to stage three . . . y'know. . . when Ontario said it was fine to have 50 people inside your home for a party.  I suspect that may have played into the equation.

You are right, but don't cases start going up about 2 weeks later?.  It seems forever ago.  And now we are tightening up again.  I think large private gatherings should be massively discouraged, they can't take the same precautions as are done at restaurants and bars.

... and in that vein, DeSantis is opening up Florida and removing all restrictions on business capacity. Florida is going to be a shitshow in a few weeks. It is frustrating to watch wishful thinking and political calculation win out over scientific understanding of epidemiology.

Here's a question. Assuming the quest for full opening is byproduct of political expediency... will Floridian politicians close-up again after the election results are in? OR, will they double down regardless of the effect on their population's health?

I suspect it depends on whether or not they expect to personally profit from continuing to endanger the people under their control.

At least the population density won't go up with all the Canadian snowbirds, who won't be there this year.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave. I would also like to add that the CDC revised their numbers and actually added 75 K more Covid deaths (over the past 6 months) to the rolls today. This is not reflected in the above data. I think missing 1/3 of the deaths shows are system of counting is rather poor.

***Overall, everything is depressing this week. I'm going to have a beer when I get home to commiserate.

JGS

[Paper Chaser]

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Seems like the third wave starting to me, as evidenced in the "hospitalizations" chart here. Interestingly with the other waves, the peaks in hospitalizations and deaths both occurred within a week of the peak in cases, so we may not have to wait 2-6 weeks like you expect:


Wave 1 in April had the peak for cases, hospitalizations and deaths all basically at the same time on 4-20.
By the time Wave 2 came around in July we had greater testing capacity which shows a higher (more accurate) number of cases, but hospitalizations are nearly identical to Wave 1, and deaths are thankfully lower. Still, both cases and hospitalizations peaked right around 7-25 and deaths peaked about a week later on 8-4-ish.

[JGS1980]

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Seems like the third wave starting to me, as evidenced in the "hospitalizations" chart here. Interestingly with the other waves, the peaks in hospitalizations and deaths both occurred within a week of the peak in cases, so we may not have to wait 2-6 weeks like you expect:


Wave 1 in April had the peak for cases, hospitalizations and deaths all basically at the same time on 4-20.
By the time Wave 2 came around in July we had greater testing capacity which shows a higher (more accurate) number of cases, but hospitalizations are nearly identical to Wave 1, and deaths are thankfully lower. Still, both cases and hospitalizations peaked right around 7-25 and deaths peaked about a week later on 8-4-ish.

Semantics.

Your "second wave" was actually just the dissemination of Covid from the NE/Coasts to the SE and and now MW USA for the first time. I'm considering the second wave to be the return of Covid to the places it had already previously spread to. In either case, still sucks.

In regards to case count peaks association with later deaths, does it really matter if it's 1 week or 2 weeks later? It's still on it's way.  In any case, there is a peak in deaths followed by a "plateau" of later deaths as the virus slowly works it's way through the individual patients in the population.

[jrhampt]

What is this about the cdc revising their numbers and adding 75k more deaths?? Do you have any more information about how these were calculated?

[Abe]

Looks like Dr Gu dropped out from predicting deaths, was burning him out. https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/ provides an overview of multiple groups' models so if people have concerns about a specific one, they can look at a bunch and see the average prediction. They overall predict deaths to stay consistent at a national (US) level for the next several weeks.

So far the deaths have flattened out to some extent, despite a rise in cases again. Interestingly there has not been a bump in known or excess deaths. This suggests that the higher-risk people (both for exposure and death) in densely populated areas have already been through the gauntlet, and now it's spreading through the less dense states and possibly the lower-risk population in denser states, with overall less mortality.

My prediction is we will see a continued upswing in cases through the late fall/early winter, with a slight increase in mortality due to combined influenza & covid infections, then go back to our current baseline of ~750 deaths/day through late winter/early spring.

[JGS1980]

What is this about the cdc revising their numbers and adding 75k more deaths?? Do you have any more information about how these were calculated?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/12/us-covid-deaths-75-k-more-americans-died-than-previously-recorded-excess-deaths/5935813002/

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761?guestAccessKey=92828e1e-363a-491b-83af-ec3ce0cde3f6&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=101220

[JGS1980]

Weekly Update -USA Edition:

Top 15 US States in Covid Cases [per Capita]
1. N Dakota [44800]
2. S Dakota [39600]
3. Louisiana [38100]
4. Mississippi [38000]
5. Alabama [35800]
6. Florida [35700]
7. Iowa [35100]
8. Tennessee [34500]
9. Arkansas [33600]
10. Georgia [32400]
11. S Carolina [32300]
12. Arizona [32100]
13. Wisconsin [31300]
14. Nebraska [31200]
15. Idaho [31100]

***For comparison purposes, note that New Jersey, which has the highest deaths/capita, has 25,600 cases per capita. Timing and the 6 months of improved treatments/hospital preparations for Covid waves have significantly decreased the overall case fatality rate of the virus

Top 15 US States in Covid Deaths [per Capita]
1. New Jersey [1843]
2. New York [1723]
3. Massachusetts [1419]
4. Connecticut [1281]
5. Louisiana [1245]
6. Rhode Island [1103]
7. Mississippi [1086]
8. DC [910]
9. Arizona [804]
10. Florida [758]
11. Illinois [758]
12. Michigan [743]
13. Georgia [726]
14. S Carolina [720]
15. Delaware [688]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Colombia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Colombia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/10/20

1. Peru [915] +31 -still rising rapidly
2. Belgium [855] +2
3. Spain [634] +9 -uptick again
4. Chile [615] +18
5. UK [612]  +1
6. Bolivia [445] +166 !!! WHOA. Data Dump in Bolivia is apparent (to 6th place from 13th in a week)
7. Brazil [605] +22
8. Ecuador [605] +229 !!! WHOA. Another Data Dump. Why now?
9. USA [590] +16
10. Italy [589] +2 *Almost out of the Top 10 for Italy. It's been a long road for them, so congrats.
11. Sweden [578] +1
12. Mexico [535] +25
13. Panama [489] +20
14. France [472] +2
15. Colombia [433] +34

*Data Dumps in Bolivia and Ecuador puts them both in the Top 10 all of a sudden. Maybe they compile data on a quarterly basis or monthly basis? Brazil, Bolivia, and Ecuador have all now hopped over the USA.
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/17/20

1. Peru [939] +24
2. Belgium [856] +1
3. Spain [647] +13 -rising quickly
4. Bolivia [639] -rapidly going up the ranks still
5. Chile [634] +19
6. Brazil [630] +25
7. Ecuador [621] +16
8. UK [613]  +1
9. USA [608] +18
10. Italy [590] +1
11. Sweden [580] +2 *** There's been some chatter out there about how Sweden's approach is a "success". I just don't see it. Keeping company with the top 15 Covid death toll countries cannot possibly be considered a success in my mind. Now Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark? Those are real successes.
12. Mexico [557] +22
13. Panama [508] +19
14. France [475] +3
15. Colombia [460] +27
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Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/20

1. Peru [964] +25
2. Belgium [858] +2
3. Spain [664] +17 *continues to accelerate for what is clearly their second wave
4. Bolivia [660] +21
5. Brazil [653] +23
6. Chile [651] +17
7. Ecuador [631] +10
8. USA [624] +16 **USA hops the UK
9. UK [616]  +3
10. Italy [592] +2
11. Sweden [581] +1
12. Mexico [580] +23
13. Panama [529] +21
14. Colombia [485] +20
15. France [482] +7 ***Also in their second wave now
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/01/20

1. Peru [981] +17
2. Belgium [863] +5
3. Spain [684] +4
4. Bolivia [680] +20
5. Brazil [677] +24
6. Chile [669] +18
7. Ecuador [641] +10
8. USA [640] +16
9. UK [621]  +5
10. Mexico [601] +21 *Mexico cracks the Top 10
11. Italy [594] +2
12. Sweden [583] +2
13. Panama [548] +19
14. Colombia [510] +25
15. France [490] +8

***Unless there is a huge data dump, I don't see any other country getting into the top 15 anytime soon. Argentina is closest at 374.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/08/20

1. Peru [997] +16
2. Belgium [871] +8
3. Spain [699] +15 *Definitely 2nd wave in Spain, France, UK now. Concerning to the max.
4. Bolivia [699] +19
5. Brazil [697] +20
6. Chile [687] +18
7. Ecuador [685] +44
8. USA [656] +16
9. Mexico [640] +39
10. UK [627]  +6
11. Italy [597] +3
12. Sweden [582] -1
13. Panama [565] +17
14. Colombia [533] +23
15. France [498] +8
16. Argentina [491] ***Huge data dump as warned above, up 117 in just 1 week.

Check out the Worldometer site for Spain, UK, France trends which will show you that their deaths are picking up and will continue to accelerate in the next month.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/15/20

1. Peru [1012] +15
2. Belgium [886] +15 -2nd wave
3. Spain [715] +16 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [715] +16
5. Brazil [713] +16
6. Chile [701] +14
7. Ecuador [692] +7
8. USA [670] +14 -2nd wave coming now with 20% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Deaths will come 2-6 weeks from now.
9. Mexico [656] +16
10. UK [637]  +10 -2nd wave
11. Italy [602] +6 -slower 2nd wave
12. Sweden [584] +2
13. Panama [581] +16
14. Colombia [555] +22
15. Argentina [550] +69 *still data dumping in Argentina. They must have changed how they are recording deaths to better reflect the pandemic in real time.
16. France [506] +8 -2nd wave

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 10/22/20

1. Peru [1025] +13
2. Belgium [908] +22 -2nd wave
3. Spain [735] +20 -2nd wave
4. Bolivia [730] +15
5. Brazil [730] +17
6. Chile [720] +19
7. Ecuador [705] +13
8. USA [687] +17 -2nd wave coming now with 30% increase in daily infections over the last 2 weeks. Death rate is beginning to accelerate.
9. Mexico [676] +20
10. UK [652]  +15 -2nd wave
11. Italy [612] +10 -2nd wave
12. Argentina [607] +57 -is this real? or is this continued data corrections week to week? Anyone know the details from Argentina?
13. Panama [599] +18
14. Sweden [586] +2   ***I would note that Sweden is having a second wave in infections just like the rest of Europe, but they are NOT YET having a second wave in deaths due to Covid. If Herd Immunity was the original goal, the numbers clearly show that this has not been achieved for Sweden.
Per my nonofficial read of the data, they are about 2 weeks behind France and 3-4 weeks behind Spain for the death count to start rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

15. Colombia [577] +22
16. France [521] +17 -2nd wave

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]

[JGS1980]

I've vacillated in my opinion between increased numbers due to co-infection of COVID and influenza, and decreased numbers due to better hygiene reducing influenza cases. I've kind of come to the conclusion that we will see a significant splitting in trajectories based on a given location's overall compliance with masks, flu vaccines, etc. Time will tell!

I re-read this older post, Abe, and I'd like to point out that the same swabs and reagents used to diagnose Covid19 are used to diagnose Influenza. There is a worldwide shortage of this testing equipment right now. Thus, during the current pandemic, even if I wanted to diagnose Influenza as an outpatient, the resources don't actually exist to get this done. The end result is we will have much lower Influenza diagnoses this year (regardless of whether the rate of Influenza is, in reality, going down).

[deborah]

In Australia, we’re just finishing the flu season. In February, we looked like we were in for a bad season, with a higher than usual number of cases reported. The measures brought in at that point for covid19 stopped the flu in its tracks. Our government encouraged everyone to get the flu vaccine earlier than normal, so that may have had an impact. Normally we see a bit over 700 flu deaths in a season. This year it’s been 39. The rate has been so low that they don’t even know if we had the right vaccine this year. You may be lucky.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm

[Abe]

I've vacillated in my opinion between increased numbers due to co-infection of COVID and influenza, and decreased numbers due to better hygiene reducing influenza cases. I've kind of come to the conclusion that we will see a significant splitting in trajectories based on a given location's overall compliance with masks, flu vaccines, etc. Time will tell!

I re-read this older post, Abe, and I'd like to point out that the same swabs and reagents used to diagnose Covid19 are used to diagnose Influenza. There is a worldwide shortage of this testing equipment right now. Thus, during the current pandemic, even if I wanted to diagnose Influenza as an outpatient, the resources don't actually exist to get this done. The end result is we will have much lower Influenza diagnoses this year (regardless of whether the rate of Influenza is, in reality, going down).

True, confirmed influenza cases will be subject to testing ability. I think outpatient ILI visits will be a better thing to track since those are clinical diagnoses rather than lab data driven. The data from last season showed a bump in the summer consistent with covid, so there's obviously going to be overlap in the two, but either way it should give us some data.

[Abe]

In Australia, we’re just finishing the flu season. In February, we looked like we were in for a bad season, with a higher than usual number of cases reported. The measures brought in at that point for covid19 stopped the flu in its tracks. Our government encouraged everyone to get the flu vaccine earlier than normal, so that may have had an impact. Normally we see a bit over 700 flu deaths in a season. This year it’s been 39. The rate has been so low that they don’t even know if we had the right vaccine this year. You may be lucky.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm

That's good to hear. I agree that compliance will make a big difference in various locations' trajectories during the flu season.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205

Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries.  For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000).  Similarly, Japan - 4,315.  Australia - 11,619...

[JGS1980]

Check out the "Percent Positive" Tab on this Johns Hopkins Trend Tracker

CDC recommends %Positive to be 5.0% or less
The USA currently has 36 states >5.0% and 15 states >10.0%

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

[katsiki]

This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205

Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries.  For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000).  Similarly, Japan - 4,315.  Australia - 11,619...

Interesting.  It seems like a false comparison to me though.  US and SK are very different.  US and AUS are perhaps more 'compatible'.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

This interview with Sanjay Gupta brought up an interesting point - https://youtu.be/NAUf72u7Vks?t=205

Basically, he references a Columbia (University?) study comparing how thing might have worked out for the US if we had followed the protocols of other countries.  For instance, if the US had implemented all the measures that South Korea has, only 2,799 people would have died (vs. 225,000).  Similarly, Japan - 4,315.  Australia - 11,619...

Interesting.  It seems like a false comparison to me though.  US and SK are very different.  US and AUS are perhaps more 'compatible'.

The intent was not to compare similar social norms, it was just a thought exercise on how differently this could have played out under different circumstances in the US.  I would encourage you to see all of Sanjay Gupta's interview, the second part highlights what to expect going forward in the US - https://youtu.be/TWloBXxspWA