Coronavirus Weekly Update

[wenchsenior]

I read these every week and really appreciate them, though I have grown to kind of dread them.

[Kris]

I also read these, so thank you for continuing to post them.

[Glenstache]

Also an appreciative lurker. I am afraid to see if there is a detectable downstream effect of the Sturgis rally (and other shenanigans) in the weeks to come.

[DaMa]

Thank you from another regular reader!

[Abe]

Here are some graphs for current trends.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

PTF - have some catching up to do

[JGS1980]

Also an appreciative lurker. I am afraid to see if there is a detectable downstream effect of the Sturgis rally (and other shenanigans) in the weeks to come.

Yeah, I don't know in which universe that rally seems like a good idea. They come from all over the US, unite for a week of drinking and partying, and then all go home to their respective towns/cities/states.

[gaja]

Some of those states have a very large discrepancy between number of cases and deaths. Have they stopped counting, is it a time lag, or are the infected younger and healthier and therefore surviving? Does anyone know how the hospital situation looks in states like Indiana, Colorado and Minnesota?

[GuitarStv]

Some of those states have a very large discrepancy between number of cases and deaths. Have they stopped counting, is it a time lag, or are the infected younger and healthier and therefore surviving? Does anyone know how the hospital situation looks in states like Indiana, Colorado and Minnesota?

Trump controls the hospital information now, so the numbers you're getting may well all all be lies.

[gooki]

And that is legal in the USA because?

[GuitarStv]

And that is legal in the USA because?

The Republicans in the Senate control the only means of holding the president accountable for anything, and they have resoundingly indicated that they will not do so no matter what happens.  Trump is currently above all law in the United States.

[JGS1980]

Thanks everyone for reading the posts. These weekly updates have certainly allowed me to keep abreast of the situation as it evolves.

JGS


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 % --> No turning of corner, yet
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -drop off to less than 1K per day again. Yay for now.

[Abe]

Here's another update per state. Overall cases are declining slowly, and we are seeing the lag in deaths after the case spike. CA and FL seem to still be struggling, while AZ has turned the corner and TX has levelled out. Some states are continuing a steady upward trend in cases, but not deahts (IL, IN, MN, PA) which may reflect more testing in those areas. Other states have a rise in both (AL, AR, GA, LA, OK, OR, TN). However, these rural states account for a relatively small fraction of deaths. Right now only CA, FL and TX have more than 100 deaths a day.

[Caroline PF]

Some of those states have a very large discrepancy between number of cases and deaths. Have they stopped counting, is it a time lag, or are the infected younger and healthier and therefore surviving? Does anyone know how the hospital situation looks in states like Indiana, Colorado and Minnesota?

All of those could be contributing. But there is another theory out there that I very much hope is true. The theory is that people wearing surgical masks are reducing the viral load that they are exposed to, which translates into less-severe or deadly infections when they are exposed.

I am not aware of any data to support this theory, nor if those states you pointed out are even masking up.

[Abe]

I don't believe any state has stopped counting deaths. A time lag of 1-3 weeks is seen between case spikes and deaths, but that hasn't been seen in some states. In states that had a spring outbreak, its likely the highest-risk patients died, and the remaining population is somewhat better prepared & lower risk. So to answer, it's probably reasons #2 & #3.

Regarding exposure and masks:
It remains unclear if coronavirus infection is a nearly binary outcome (like measles - only 5 viral particles are needed to cause a symptomatic infection), or a continuous outcome (like HIV: very low viral blood exposure usually doesn't result in an infection). We do know in general for coronaviruses that it is a continuous outcome. SARS and MERS were not nearly as transmissible as measles, and the COVID-19 doesn't seem to be either.

We do know from hospital data in the Northeast that after N95 masks were used, the rate of healthcare provider infection decreased dramatically. We also know that surgical masks are slightly less effective than N95 (one would consider them N70-80). No one to my knowledge has been able to clearly see if mask usage independent of other factors like shutting down businesses is sufficient to reduce transmission. It would obviously be unethical to do a randomized trial, and observational data is generally messy. Even in the Northeast, a lot of other things changed while hospitals were going from surgical masks to N95s, so no definite conclusion can be drawn.

Regardless of viral load, masks offer a probabilistic protection: the probability that you will inhale during an exposure event the threshold amount of viral particles that are sufficient to cause illness (or touch your mouth/nose and transfer particles) is significantly reduced with face coverings. People in general seem much more diligent about hand hygiene than in the past, even during flu seasons. This rate of viral contact amongst high-risk people is probably the main reason deaths are going down.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

https://www.pressreader.com/usa/houston-chronicle-sunday/20200816/281517933483421

An article in our Houston Chronicle newspaper lending credence to the idea that actual Covid deaths have been undercounted.  In a similar vein to what was stated earlier in this thread, we will eventually need to parse the increase in deaths from all causes in order to better understand how other mortality statistics might have 'absorbed' some of the pandemic's effects.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas, the state’s death toll from all causes has soared by thousands above historical averages — a sobering spike that experts say reveals the true toll of the disease.

Between the beginning of the local pandemic and the end of July, 95,000 deaths were reported in Texas, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Based on historical mortality records and predictive modeling, government epidemiologists would have expected to see about 82,500 deaths during that time.

The CDC attributed more than 7,100 deaths to COVID-19, but that leaves roughly 5,500 more than expected and with no identified tie to the pandemic.

The CDC’s chief of mortality, Dr. Bob Anderson, said these “excess deaths” are likely from a range of pandemic-related problems, including misclassifications because doctors did not initially understand the many ways that COVID-19 affects the circulatory system and results in a stroke or a heart attack.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96% ***Note overall trend since May suggests that the USA was hit VERY hard relatively early in the Covid19 Pandemic. I'm not so sure I would say that we are "recovering" as our rate of death remains over 5 times our overall population percentage AND our active daily infection rate remains high, but I'll take progress when I see it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [512] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [491] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0

***In summary, still sucks to be in the Americas. Very small uptick in Europe noted, hopefully this peters out.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.

[Glenstache]

I look at numbers like these (thanks again for aggregating), and then look at comments on announcements for local free covid testing that repeatedly make light of it or otherwise blow it off and it make me want to just crawl into a hole until this is over.  It was going to be bad no matter what, but it didn't have to be like this.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I see all of the meticulous numbers and careful parsing of the data, then read an article like this - https://www.expressnews.com/news/politics/texas_legislature/article/Turns-out-Texas-Gov-Abbott-s-key-metric-in-15498291.php

The virus truly is in control, because we don't really know what's going on to an acceptable level.  And we keep doing things that will likely make the situation worse (like sending everyone back to school).

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I see all of the meticulous numbers and careful parsing of the data, then read an article like this - https://www.expressnews.com/news/politics/texas_legislature/article/Turns-out-Texas-Gov-Abbott-s-key-metric-in-15498291.php

The virus truly is in control, because we don't really know what's going on to an acceptable level.  And we keep doing things that will likely make the situation worse (like sending everyone back to school).

I work in a large company with noisy/bad/missing data so I'm used to this stuff. Looking at something like worldometer and covidtracking.com it's not hard to triangulate approximately what was/is going on from testing, cases, hospitalization, and deaths. Add the occasional serology survey and a few papers on epidemiological models and it's not so confusing anymore. Regarding Texas, I read this twice before giving up trying to understand what is going on. TX is not a necessary data point to see that the herd immunity threshold is much, much lower than 1-1/R0 and has been stalling the epidemic in many countries and US states. The end of the epidemic tends to be marked by a long, rather uniformly linear drop in average deaths/day (example). The US might be just starting to see the very beginning of that trend, while hospitalizations began their linear drop 4 weeks ago: R^2= 0.99 and a slope indicating average declines of 670/day in hospitalizations. This ultra-simple analysis predicts an end to the severe part of the US epidemic before December.

Comparison countries/US states with high numbers of infections where the epidemic has largely ended:
Country, Peak deaths/day, Deaths/day 3 months later
Sweden, 99, 10
UK, 943, 29
Spain, 866, 6
Italy, 817, 20
Belgium, 333, 2
France, 975, 15
NY state, 956, 26
NJ state, 316, 17 (or 11 since it had a double-peak)
MA state, 174, 16
CT state, 114, 3

The above suggests the decline will result in deaths falling to 1-10% of peak rate in 3 months. The US is a multi-region administrative mess so we should expect the rate of decline to be on the slow side--perhaps <100 deaths/day by the start of December. This yields the following results:

Cumulative US deaths by election day: 226K
Cumulative deaths by the end of 2020: 231K

Caveats:
1. the US epidemic is a set of separate stacked regional and state epidemics that is leading to a broader peak in daily deaths (also: American Exceptionalism)
2. therapeutics are improving, though the approach of winter may not help (or maybe summer was worse due to heat >> air-conditioning >> staying indoors in diminished humidity)
3. epidemiology isn't my day-job and you should probably listen to people who think about this more than a few hours per week if I sound batty

[Abe]

Public health officials are assuming that there’s going to be an uptick in covid during the flu season (tends to happen with respiratory illnesses, including coronaviruses, and there’s no reason to think that covid-19 is unique in that regard). Your analysis doesn’t include this factor in predicting the end of the epidemics. I do agree we should have a linear downtrend over the next few months until the next uptick.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Public health officials are assuming that there’s going to be an uptick in covid during the flu season (tends to happen with respiratory illnesses, including coronaviruses, and there’s no reason to think that covid-19 is unique in that regard). Your analysis doesn’t include this factor in predicting the end of the epidemics. I do agree we should have a linear downtrend over the next few months until the next uptick.

Covered in caveat #2 but the key inference I'm leveraging is that the US will be at herd immunity before the flu season, which would plausibly diminish the size of a winter resurgence. But as the saying goes: predictions are hard, especially about the future.

[deborah]

An interesting thing's been happening here with our flu season. It more or less doesn't exist this year. It started off bad in February, and looked like we'd have a bad flu season, but as soon as covid19 struck it went down. Australian flu cases in a normal year is just under 100k and about 700 deaths. We've had 36 deaths so far this season

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm#current

They were worried that with flu and covid19 hitting together, our hospitals would be completely overwhelmed, so they had a big campaign to get everyone immunized - and had the biggest flu vaccine uptake ever. Hopefully, northern hemisphere countries will also find that the covid19 restrictions have a similar effect.

[Abe]

Public health officials are assuming that there’s going to be an uptick in covid during the flu season (tends to happen with respiratory illnesses, including coronaviruses, and there’s no reason to think that covid-19 is unique in that regard). Your analysis doesn’t include this factor in predicting the end of the epidemics. I do agree we should have a linear downtrend over the next few months until the next uptick.

Covered in caveat #2 but the key inference I'm leveraging is that the US will be at herd immunity before the flu season, which would plausibly diminish the size of a winter resurgence. But as the saying goes: predictions are hard, especially about the future.

That's quite true. There are some thoughts herd immunity is not 50-70% as predicted, some models suggest 40%. However there's no evidence to my knowledge that we are even approaching that amount (country-wide would be 120 million infected) outside of isolated pockets (Bronx, etc).

[Abe]

An interesting thing's been happening here with our flu season. It more or less doesn't exist this year. It started off bad in February, and looked like we'd have a bad flu season, but as soon as covid19 struck it went down. Australian flu cases in a normal year is just under 100k and about 700 deaths. We've had 36 deaths so far this season

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm#current

They were worried that with flu and covid19 hitting together, our hospitals would be completely overwhelmed, so they had a big campaign to get everyone immunized - and had the biggest flu vaccine uptake ever. Hopefully, northern hemisphere countries will also find that the covid19 restrictions have a similar effect.

I think non-US countries will see that effect. In the US we struggle a lot with vaccines in a good year, and with all the political nonsense this epidemic has taken on here, it'll be hard to get people to vaccinate for the flu.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Public health officials are assuming that there’s going to be an uptick in covid during the flu season (tends to happen with respiratory illnesses, including coronaviruses, and there’s no reason to think that covid-19 is unique in that regard). Your analysis doesn’t include this factor in predicting the end of the epidemics. I do agree we should have a linear downtrend over the next few months until the next uptick.

Covered in caveat #2 but the key inference I'm leveraging is that the US will be at herd immunity before the flu season, which would plausibly diminish the size of a winter resurgence. But as the saying goes: predictions are hard, especially about the future.

That's quite true. There are some thoughts herd immunity is not 50-70% as predicted, some models suggest 40%. However there's no evidence to my knowledge that we are even approaching that amount (country-wide would be 120 million infected) outside of isolated pockets (Bronx, etc).

The lowest estimate I've seen is at 10% and a recent Science paper suggested 43%, iirc--lots of other stuff in between. Starting with death totals, estimating an IFR, then imputing actual infections seems to get us to an implied 20-30% HIT for countries/states that have seen the rate of spread stall out. Serology under-estimates cases as well, as shown, e.g., by the recent paper from the Karolinska Institute (many recovered patients who had asymptomatic or mild infection test negative for antibodies but have t cell immunity). My estimate for US infections to date is 40-60 million.

[JGS1980]

I see all of the meticulous numbers and careful parsing of the data, then read an article like this - https://www.expressnews.com/news/politics/texas_legislature/article/Turns-out-Texas-Gov-Abbott-s-key-metric-in-15498291.php

The virus truly is in control, because we don't really know what's going on to an acceptable level.  And we keep doing things that will likely make the situation worse (like sending everyone back to school).

I work in a large company with noisy/bad/missing data so I'm used to this stuff. Looking at something like worldometer and covidtracking.com it's not hard to triangulate approximately what was/is going on from testing, cases, hospitalization, and deaths. Add the occasional serology survey and a few papers on epidemiological models and it's not so confusing anymore. Regarding Texas, I read this twice before giving up trying to understand what is going on. TX is not a necessary data point to see that the herd immunity threshold is much, much lower than 1-1/R0 and has been stalling the epidemic in many countries and US states. The end of the epidemic tends to be marked by a long, rather uniformly linear drop in average deaths/day (example). The US might be just starting to see the very beginning of that trend, while hospitalizations began their linear drop 4 weeks ago: R^2= 0.99 and a slope indicating average declines of 670/day in hospitalizations. This ultra-simple analysis predicts an end to the severe part of the US epidemic before December.

Comparison countries/US states with high numbers of infections where the epidemic has largely ended:
Country, Peak deaths/day, Deaths/day 3 months later
Sweden, 99, 10
UK, 943, 29
Spain, 866, 6
Italy, 817, 20
Belgium, 333, 2
France, 975, 15
NY state, 956, 26
NJ state, 316, 17 (or 11 since it had a double-peak)
MA state, 174, 16
CT state, 114, 3

The above suggests the decline will result in deaths falling to 1-10% of peak rate in 3 months. The US is a multi-region administrative mess so we should expect the rate of decline to be on the slow side--perhaps <100 deaths/day by the start of December. This yields the following results:

Cumulative US deaths by election day: 226K
Cumulative deaths by the end of 2020: 231K

Caveats:
1. the US epidemic is a set of separate stacked regional and state epidemics that is leading to a broader peak in daily deaths (also: American Exceptionalism)
2. therapeutics are improving, though the approach of winter may not help (or maybe summer was worse due to heat >> air-conditioning >> staying indoors in diminished humidity)
3. epidemiology isn't my day-job and you should probably listen to people who think about this more than a few hours per week if I sound batty

Thanks for adding interesting input to the discussion, Lost in the Endless.

I would caution you to make assumptions on Herd Immunity so early in this process (I hope you are right, but I wouldn't bet on it -> and if you are wrong, hundreds of thousands more people can die!).

Remember that those current levels of success in European countries reflect continued social isolation policies. Although no longer fully on lock down, a lot of those policies remain. People are still scared and making their decisions accordingly. Also, as things slowly open up in a step-wise fashion, we've seen how Covid cases can rise dramatically, even exponentially even in the countries that were previously hardest hit. This leads to secondary lock downs.

Please closely look at the Spain and France daily Covid case data points and tell me what you think. Italy is not so far behind either, although like NYC the Lombardy region may be closer to Herd immunity than a lot of places.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

[Glenstache]

Assumption #3 is very important. My SO is good friends with someone who truly is a world class epidemiologist who has specifically emerged as an expert in covid and has been advising major organizations on how to handle covid (not being coy, but they have requested anonymity for a variety of reasons related to our current political climate, unfortunately). I asked SO what they would say if asked the question about what should be expected through the fall and winter as they have discussed covid at length. Her one line response, "It is going to get worse."

The only way that I can see herd immunity happening at numbers as low as 40% is if the individual R number is very low due to quarantine and rigorous social distancing. Really, herd immunity is just dilution that reduces the number of potential contacts between infected and susceptible people (and at 100%, simply no more people left to get infected, I guess). At numbers as low as 40% this seems like it would be very susceptible to repeat outbreaks as social distancing rules are relaxed. Has anyone read the papers in enough detail (not just the abstract) and with enough subject matter expertise to understand those underlying assumptions? (honest question). 

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I see all of the meticulous numbers and careful parsing of the data, then read an article like this - https://www.expressnews.com/news/politics/texas_legislature/article/Turns-out-Texas-Gov-Abbott-s-key-metric-in-15498291.php

The virus truly is in control, because we don't really know what's going on to an acceptable level.  And we keep doing things that will likely make the situation worse (like sending everyone back to school).

I work in a large company with noisy/bad/missing data so I'm used to this stuff. Looking at something like worldometer and covidtracking.com it's not hard to triangulate approximately what was/is going on from testing, cases, hospitalization, and deaths. Add the occasional serology survey and a few papers on epidemiological models and it's not so confusing anymore. Regarding Texas, I read this twice before giving up trying to understand what is going on. TX is not a necessary data point to see that the herd immunity threshold is much, much lower than 1-1/R0 and has been stalling the epidemic in many countries and US states. The end of the epidemic tends to be marked by a long, rather uniformly linear drop in average deaths/day (example). The US might be just starting to see the very beginning of that trend, while hospitalizations began their linear drop 4 weeks ago: R^2= 0.99 and a slope indicating average declines of 670/day in hospitalizations. This ultra-simple analysis predicts an end to the severe part of the US epidemic before December.

Comparison countries/US states with high numbers of infections where the epidemic has largely ended:
Country, Peak deaths/day, Deaths/day 3 months later
Sweden, 99, 10
UK, 943, 29
Spain, 866, 6
Italy, 817, 20
Belgium, 333, 2
France, 975, 15
NY state, 956, 26
NJ state, 316, 17 (or 11 since it had a double-peak)
MA state, 174, 16
CT state, 114, 3

The above suggests the decline will result in deaths falling to 1-10% of peak rate in 3 months. The US is a multi-region administrative mess so we should expect the rate of decline to be on the slow side--perhaps <100 deaths/day by the start of December. This yields the following results:

Cumulative US deaths by election day: 226K
Cumulative deaths by the end of 2020: 231K

Caveats:
1. the US epidemic is a set of separate stacked regional and state epidemics that is leading to a broader peak in daily deaths (also: American Exceptionalism)
2. therapeutics are improving, though the approach of winter may not help (or maybe summer was worse due to heat >> air-conditioning >> staying indoors in diminished humidity)
3. epidemiology isn't my day-job and you should probably listen to people who think about this more than a few hours per week if I sound batty

Thanks for adding interesting input to the discussion, Lost in the Endless.

I would caution you to make assumptions on Herd Immunity so early in this process (I hope you are right, but I wouldn't bet on it -> and if you are wrong, hundreds of thousands more people can die!).

Remember that those current levels of success in European countries reflect continued social isolation policies. Although no longer fully on lock down, a lot of those policies remain. People are still scared and making their decisions accordingly. Also, as things slowly open up in a step-wise fashion, we've seen how Covid cases can rise dramatically, even exponentially even in the countries that were previously hardest hit. This leads to secondary lock downs.

Please closely look at the Spain and France daily Covid case data points and tell me what you think. Italy is not so far behind either, although like NYC the Lombardy region may be closer to Herd immunity than a lot of places.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

You are right that Rt=1 can be approached from two sides (lowering susceptibles to some threshold as in herd immunity, or changing behavior to reduce close-contact interactions). Clearly, both factors are at play in driving Rt down. The empirical linchpin for me to assess a higher weight on a low herd immunity threshold was the FL case count trend. There is no way Floridians can exhibit any self-control [Exhibit A, Exhibit B]. There is a large part of the US where there is zero cultural inclination to change behavior for more than a month or two. I work in a building (not in Florida) with 1,000 people and they don't wear masks and slobber on each other all day. There is a cluster or two or three (they don't tell us) of cases and one of my employees tested positive for antibodies last week. Everyone here stopped caring back in June.

So far, there is nothing scary about the new case counts in {Spain, France, Italy}. It looks worse than it is because of the case under-count earlier in the year (>10x more infections than cases in the Spring)--Spain was probably having 100-200K infections per day during its peak--unless we want to start considering implausibly high IFRs again. Testing capacity is simply allowing for a much more comprehensive tally of cases at this point. Secondly, to say a country is near herd-immunity ignores more local variations in attack rates. Spain clearly has regions where the spring death rate would imply HIT has not been reached. Those regions will continue to produce cases for some time.

Some bigger mysteries are Peru (high deaths per million) and central Africa (very low deaths per million, even after for controlling for very young median age). The lack of major outbreak in Southeast Asia is also curious and there is much speculation on that (policy success, high levels of pre-existing betacoronavirus cross-immunity, relative dominance of a less infective strain, high humidity and low air-conditioner prevalence).

Assumption #3 is very important. My SO is good friends with someone who truly is a world class epidemiologist who has specifically emerged as an expert in covid and has been advising major organizations on how to handle covid (not being coy, but they have requested anonymity for a variety of reasons related to our current political climate, unfortunately). I asked SO what they would say if asked the question about what should be expected through the fall and winter as they have discussed covid at length. Her one line response, "It is going to get worse."

The only way that I can see herd immunity happening at numbers as low as 40% is if the individual R number is very low due to quarantine and rigorous social distancing. Really, herd immunity is just dilution that reduces the number of potential contacts between infected and susceptible people (and at 100%, simply no more people left to get infected, I guess). At numbers as low as 40% this seems like it would be very susceptible to repeat outbreaks as social distancing rules are relaxed. Has anyone read the papers in enough detail (not just the abstract) and with enough subject matter expertise to understand those underlying assumptions? (honest question).

I have a day-job that fills me to near-satiety for analytics so I admit: not me! The implications of the observed heterogeneities in susceptibility and in transmissibility intuitively drive HIT down, but I'm not going to get out of my armchair to study the detailed math, e.g. this, which is of course a far more rigorous way of doing the sort of epidemiological curve fitting that I believe I intuited from the time-series data on deaths, etc.

I would be curious if your epidemiologist connection has registered an (anonymous) numerical prediction of US covid deaths for 2020--"It's going to get worse" can be taken to mean all sorts of things.

[Abe]

There are two limitations of the study cited. One, which they address, is the idea of re-infection. Though they claim respiratory viruses in general are below the re-infection threshold and are this way they are seasonal rather than endemic, this is only true in a localized sense. Indeed, influenza is endemic to the world as a whole, which is why the Northern Hemisphere monitor strains circulating in the Southern Hemisphere and vice versa. The fact they are seasonal indicates they are able to cause re-infection. We know this is true in other coronaviruses (used for this early model, which predicts a late surge in the fall and seasonal recurrences until a vaccine is developed or herd immunity is reached in 2022: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/860). Indeed, the epidemic curve we are seeing in the US is more similar to an endemic disease though individual Northeast states have a sharp peak and decline (Compare national and state curves from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html (or my posted graphs above) to Extended data figure 2 in Aguas paper and Figures 4B&C, blue lines from the Kissler paper). This is probably from inter-state spread. This re-infection (population-level, not individual level) brings the herd immunity threshold to around 40% rather than Aguas' estimated <20%. This brings us to the main issue with this model: it assumes these epidemics are not interconnected, and models them as separate scenarios. This is only true if borders are sealed until vaccines are produced, and that is not occuring in the EU or the US. We are seeing an uptick in cases in multiple european countries, and a more or less endemic curve in Poland (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-rapid-risk-assessment-20200810.pdf). Of note, their models currently fit the upticks fairly well (Annex 2 of that report), lending credence to their first-pass validity, but the lack of population-level reinfection risk from mixing outside of a given epidemic region may prove the Aguas model's undoing.

Overall I think the Aguas paper is another good attempt at first approximation modelling of this complex situation, but like many epidemiologic dynamic models it is a bit too simple in its underlying assumptions. So we will have to stay tuned, unfortunately. Hopefully they are right, that would be awesome! However, I am skeptical.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

^Yup, all good points and those are some of the potential sources of error. I'll stick with my forecast and see how I do though! Again, my experience in the business world is that simple models outperform complex ones when many parameters are under-constrained.

[GuitarStv]

I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.

Immunity may have little to do with Italy and New York's situation.  People are a bit more likely to stop fucking around and actually follow public health recomendations when they have first hand experience how important it is to do so, and know some of the dead who didn't.

[jrhampt]

I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.

Immunity may have little to do with Italy and New York's situation.  People are a bit more likely to stop fucking around and actually follow public health recomendations when they have first hand experience how important it is to do so, and know some of the dead who didn't.

This is my belief, too (that people here are not fucking around with the virus, not that they are immune).  In Connecticut, we've had a mask mandate since April, and I'd say over 95% of people here are pretty consistent about wearing them.  The only place I've traveled to since March is New York (upstate and Long Island), and the place is pretty well plastered with signs about wearing masks and social distancing (as is Connecticut), and people seem to be taking it seriously.

[OtherJen]

I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.

Immunity may have little to do with Italy and New York's situation.  People are a bit more likely to stop fucking around and actually follow public health recomendations when they have first hand experience how important it is to do so, and know some of the dead who didn't.

Yes. Mask compliance here in Wayne County, Michigan is pretty good. We were hit pretty hard back in March/April. In more rural and Republican parts of the state, compliance is poorer because people haven't been faced with the consequences to the same degree.

[Abe]

Anyone have thoughts or citations on the feasibility of T-cell immunity from other coronaviruses working against Covid 19?

If that were the case would that help reach herd immunity faster?

I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.

T-cells against one coronavirus have some limited activity against others. Also, many people have some circulating level of antibiodies to other coronaviruses. That's why some of these antibody tests are overestimates of the true prevalence of COVID-19, since they cross-react with the endemic coronavirus antibodies. My university did a study to evaluate this and found most people have some underlying antibodies to the endemic coronaviruses, and very few had the more specific anti COVID-19 antibodies (indicating true prior or ongoing infection). The paper is being written so I can't give more details than that at this time.

This phenomenon is true in most virus families, and SARS-CoV-2 isn't that different from SARS-CoV-1 and other coronaviruses. This is why the majority of patients don't die of overwhelming sepsis. The initial antiviral response is initiated by NK cells, but generic T cells to non-specific viral proteins activate quickly while we wait for more specific clones to ramp up.

[Abe]

Here's the most recent case data for the US. Total cases are going down in most states, especially the ones that were hit hard recently. However, deaths have plateaued around 1000/day for the last month. Interestingly, states hit hard in the spring had a quicker drop in deaths than we are seeing now. I don't have a good explanation for this, other than there may be some delay in reporting deaths in these areas. I suggest this theory because we do know that hospitalizations (ICU and regular beds) have decreased substantially in the areas I"ve been tracking (SoCal, Arizona, Texas, Florida). Of note, Houston has had a 10% mortality for in-patients, so a backlog in coroner paperwork is likely. (approximately 20k admitted over the last few months, 2k deaths).

[Longwaytogo]

Anyone have thoughts or citations on the feasibility of T-cell immunity from other coronaviruses working against Covid 19?

If that were the case would that help reach herd immunity faster?

I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.

T-cells against one coronavirus have some limited activity against others. Also, many people have some circulating level of antibiodies to other coronaviruses. That's why some of these antibody tests are overestimates of the true prevalence of COVID-19, since they cross-react with the endemic coronavirus antibodies. My university did a study to evaluate this and found most people have some underlying antibodies to the endemic coronaviruses, and very few had the more specific anti COVID-19 antibodies (indicating true prior or ongoing infection). The paper is being written so I can't give more details than that at this time.

This phenomenon is true in most virus families, and SARS-CoV-2 isn't that different from SARS-CoV-1 and other coronaviruses. This is why the majority of patients don't die of overwhelming sepsis. The initial antiviral response is initiated by NK cells, but generic T cells to non-specific viral proteins activate quickly while we wait for more specific clones to ramp up.

Interesting....thanks for sharing.  Do you take this as a good sign or bad. Seems like a good thing if the underlying antibodies are giving time for the specific ones to ramp up right? if I'm understanding correctly.

Don't know if you can say more but does the underlying antibody still help prevent COVID-19 or no; or still unknown?

[Longwaytogo]

I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.

Immunity may have little to do with Italy and New York's situation.  People are a bit more likely to stop fucking around and actually follow public health recomendations when they have first hand experience how important it is to do so, and know some of the dead who didn't.

This is my belief, too (that people here are not fucking around with the virus, not that they are immune).  In Connecticut, we've had a mask mandate since April, and I'd say over 95% of people here are pretty consistent about wearing them.  The only place I've traveled to since March is New York (upstate and Long Island), and the place is pretty well plastered with signs about wearing masks and social distancing (as is Connecticut), and people seem to be taking it seriously.

Yes. Mask compliance here in Wayne County, Michigan is pretty good. We were hit pretty hard back in March/April. In more rural and Republican parts of the state, compliance is poorer because people haven't been faced with the consequences to the same degree.

Maryland had/has an early Mask mandate in early April as well and compliance has been pretty good in public.

BUT compared to April/May there is way way more people getting together for friend/family gatherings at private homes with little/no mask wearing. I assume that's the same everywhere but maybe not. That's where I wondered if some herd immunity was helping.

Have those of you in the NY/NJ/CT seen/heard much of that with the private people gathering in larger groups, BBQ's , B-day parties,etc. or does that all still seem pretty limited?

[Abe]

Anyone have thoughts or citations on the feasibility of T-cell immunity from other coronaviruses working against Covid 19?

If that were the case would that help reach herd immunity faster?

I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.

T-cells against one coronavirus have some limited activity against others. Also, many people have some circulating level of antibiodies to other coronaviruses. That's why some of these antibody tests are overestimates of the true prevalence of COVID-19, since they cross-react with the endemic coronavirus antibodies. My university did a study to evaluate this and found most people have some underlying antibodies to the endemic coronaviruses, and very few had the more specific anti COVID-19 antibodies (indicating true prior or ongoing infection). The paper is being written so I can't give more details than that at this time.

This phenomenon is true in most virus families, and SARS-CoV-2 isn't that different from SARS-CoV-1 and other coronaviruses. This is why the majority of patients don't die of overwhelming sepsis. The initial antiviral response is initiated by NK cells, but generic T cells to non-specific viral proteins activate quickly while we wait for more specific clones to ramp up.

Interesting....thanks for sharing.  Do you take this as a good sign or bad. Seems like a good thing if the underlying antibodies are giving time for the specific ones to ramp up right? if I'm understanding correctly.

Don't know if you can say more but does the underlying antibody still help prevent COVID-19 or no; or still unknown?

So far they've only done one round of testing, so cannot say for sure. They are working on securing additional funding for a second round to try to indirectly evaluate this association (i.e. are healthcare workers who have had a known COVID-19 infection more or less likely to have antibodies to other coronaviruses).

[jrhampt]

I keep thinking there might be something to places like NY and Italy gaining some immunity having to do with their low numbers. But I'm guessing it's 80% optimism and wishful thinking vs maybe 20% of what I'm reading.

Immunity may have little to do with Italy and New York's situation.  People are a bit more likely to stop fucking around and actually follow public health recomendations when they have first hand experience how important it is to do so, and know some of the dead who didn't.

This is my belief, too (that people here are not fucking around with the virus, not that they are immune).  In Connecticut, we've had a mask mandate since April, and I'd say over 95% of people here are pretty consistent about wearing them.  The only place I've traveled to since March is New York (upstate and Long Island), and the place is pretty well plastered with signs about wearing masks and social distancing (as is Connecticut), and people seem to be taking it seriously.

Yes. Mask compliance here in Wayne County, Michigan is pretty good. We were hit pretty hard back in March/April. In more rural and Republican parts of the state, compliance is poorer because people haven't been faced with the consequences to the same degree.

Maryland had/has an early Mask mandate in early April as well and compliance has been pretty good in public.

BUT compared to April/May there is way way more people getting together for friend/family gatherings at private homes with little/no mask wearing. I assume that's the same everywhere but maybe not. That's where I wondered if some herd immunity was helping.

Have those of you in the NY/NJ/CT seen/heard much of that with the private people gathering in larger groups, BBQ's , B-day parties,etc. or does that all still seem pretty limited?

In my friend circle we're all still being very careful, limiting to groups of no more than 5, outdoor only etc.  I'm sure there are others who are not being as careful, though.  When your community spread rate/test positivity rate is so low though (I believe in CT it is and has been <1% for several weeks if not for months now), you can probably get away with a bit more noncompliance.  We'll see if it holds now that colleges and other schools are at least partially opening.

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

^Hospitalization still dropping ~670 per day and is down 37% from the peak on 7/23. Testing positivity rates are now down to 6% on a 7 day average. Using info from covidtracking.com (which doesn't exactly match the deaths data above--probably depending on how reporting lag is handled), I get the following US projection for future weekly deaths:

Week Ending; 4 Week Lag model; 3 Week Lag model
*9/3/2020; 6085; 6465
*9/10/2020; 5526; 5961
9/17/2020; 5094; 5130
9/24/2020; 4384; N/A
*Labor Day may add some noise due to an extra day off and various resulting reporting anomalies.

Some charts below on the difference between a 3 and 4 week lag (time from reported case to death). The 4 week lag model has converged to a better IFR (1.5%) than the 3 week model (1.7%) so it predicts a faster dropoff in deaths. Of course the reality is a much broader temporal distribution from case to death, so each one is a massive simplification over reality.

[teen persuasion]

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [512] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [491] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0
 

What's with the lack of change in the sections I bolded?

I assumed it was just you copy/pasted and missed updating those 2, but the numbers the next week don't jive with the increases.  Then again, some data gets retconned, so ?

[JGS1980]

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [512] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [491] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0
 

What's with the lack of change in the sections I bolded?

I assumed it was just you copy/pasted and missed updating those 2, but the numbers the next week don't jive with the increases.  Then again, some data gets retconned, so ?

Looks like a typo. Happens. I'll go back and approximate a correction. Looks like I simply did not add the increase in the deaths per million on the 8/20 Top 15.

Thanks, and nice catch

[JGS1980]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Columbia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] on 4/23/20
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/20
1. Belgium [824]
2. UK [588]
3. Spain [580]
4. Italy [557]
5. Sweden [452]
6. France [445]
7. Netherlands [350]
8. Ireland [337]
9. USA [332]
10. Switzerland [222]
11. Canada [202]
12. Ecuador [198]
13. Brazil [156]
14. Peru [149]
15. Portugal [143]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/11/20
1. Belgium [832]
2. UK [608]
3. Spain [580] -no change in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [564]
5. Sweden [477] -still rising
6. France [449]
7. Netherlands [353]
8. USA [348]
9. Ireland [343] -slowing down nicely
10. Switzerland [224]
11. Canada [211]
12. Ecuador [211] -soon to pass Canada and Switzerland
13. Brazil [187] +31 deaths per million in the last week, easily the highest riser
14. Peru [179] +30
15. Portugal [147]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/18/20
1. Belgium [835]
2. UK [621]
3. Spain [580] -no change again in the last week!!! Congratulations to Spain!
4. Italy [570]
5. Sweden [499] +22 in the last week
6. France [453]
7. USA [362]
8. Netherlands [355] -almost no change! Congrats Netherlands!
9. Ireland [346] -also almost no change
10. Ecuador [227]
11. Switzerland [226]
12. Brazil [220] +33 deaths per million in the last week, with acceleration
13. Peru [220] +31
14. Canada [219]
15. Chile [189] + at least 40

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/2/20
1. Belgium [842]
2. UK [647] 
3. Spain [607]
4. Italy [576]
5. Sweden [532]
6. France [457]
7. USA [396]
8. Netherlands [357]
9. Ireland [352]
10. Chile [310]
11. Peru [299]
12. Brazil [288]
13. Ecuador [259]
14. Canada [229]
15. Switzerland [227]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/9/20
1. Belgium [844] +2 only
2. UK [657]  +12
3. Spain [607] -zero change!
4. Italy [578]
5. Sweden [545] +13 dpm in the last week
6. France [459] +2 only
7. USA [408] +12 dpm
8. Netherlands [358] +1 only
9. Ireland [352]  -zero change!
10. Chile [349] +39!!!
11. Peru [338] +39!!!
12. Brazil [320] +32!!
13. Ecuador [278]+19
14. Mexico [254] OMG this is accelerating in Mexico
15. Canada [232] +3 only despite proximately to noxious USA Covid policies

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/16/20
1. Belgium [845] +1 only
2. UK [664]  +7
3. Spain [608] +1
4. Italy [579] +1
5. Sweden [552] +7
6. France [461] +2 again
7. USA [424] +16 dpm --> I expect this to continue accelerating
8. Peru [376] +38 !!!
9. Chile [376] +27 !!!
10. Netherlands [358]
11. Brazil [355] +35 !!!
12. Ireland [354] +2
13. Ecuador [292] +14
14. Mexico [286] +34 !!!
15. Canada [233] + 1 Congratulations to you Canadians on your policies


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/23/20
1. Belgium [846] +1 again
2. UK [670]  +6
3. Spain [608] ZERO (Yay Spain!)
4. Italy [580] +1 again
5. Sweden [561] +9 still uncontrolled in Sweden. Failed Experiment, unfortunately. 6x mortality greater than Nordic neighbors.
6. Peru [529] +153 Massive bump, suggests back end data adjustment here
7. France [462] +1
8. Chile [456] +80
9. USA [442] +18 *acceleration of deaths continues as expected
10. Brazil [390] +35 !!!
11. Netherlands [358] -Zero change
12. Ireland [355] +1
13. Mexico [319] still rising rapidly
14. Ecuador [292] +15
15. Panama [273] **new to the list

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/30/20
1. Belgium [848] +2
2. UK [677]  +7
3. Spain [608] ZERO
4. Italy [581] +1 again
5. Peru [570] +41 -continues to rise rapidly. Don't see anything in the media about Peru and Chile, sadly.
6. Sweden [568] +7
7. Chile [485] +31
8. USA [466] +24 ***acceleration of deaths for 4th straight week
9. France [463] +1
10. Brazil [424] +34
11. Netherlands [359] +1
12. Ireland [357] +2
13. Mexico [352] + 33 and will surpass Netherlands and Ireland by next week
14. Ecuador [318] +26
15. Panama [318] +45 -->acceleration here is very concerning

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/7/20
1. Belgium [850] +2
2. UK [683]  +6
3. Peru [619] +49 -hopped over both Italy and Spain, continues to accelerate
4. Spain [610] +2 -but new rapid increase in Spain is VERY concerning. Watch out Spain!
5. Italy [582] +1 again
6. Sweden [570] +2 Slowing down finally in Sweden. Congrats!
7. Chile [517] +32
8. USA [492] +26 ***acceleration of deaths for 5th straight week
9. France [464] +1
10. Brazil [464] +40 *Oh Brazil just getting slammed, still. Almost at 100K deaths.
11. Mexico [385] + 33 again and moving up the list
12. Panama [364] +46 -->zooming up the list as well
13. Netherlands [359] +0
14. Ireland [358] +1
15. Ecuador [333] +15

*Biggest movers are Peru, Panama, Brazil, Chile, and the USA. Western Hemisphere is getting crushed right now.

**Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong and may yet make the top 15. I would also note that the continent of Africa has now reached 1 million cases in total.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/13/20
1. Belgium [854] +4
2. Peru [657] +38 -hopped over UK, has decelerated just a bit
3. Spain [611] +1
4. UK [608]  -75 ??? Data Correction in the UK? Dropped from 2nd place to 4th
5. Italy [583] +1 again
6. Sweden [571] +1 Congrats!
7. Chile [538] +21
8. USA [512] +20 decelerated for first time in 6 weeks. But school is starting so....
9. Brazil [491] +27 *over 100K deaths and outside chance of eventually catching up to USA
10. France [465] +1
11. Mexico [423] +38
12. Panama [394] +30
13. Netherlands [360] +1
14. Ireland [359] +1
15. Ecuador [340] +7

***Bolivia and Columbia are coming on strong, will likely displace Ireland and Holland from the top 15 in the next month or so

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/20/20
1. Belgium [860] +6 uptick noted
2. Peru [812] +155!!! -almost inconceivable rise by Peru suggests retroactive data collection and dump
3. Spain [616] +5 uptick noted
4. UK [609]  +1
5. Italy [586] +3 slight uptick
6. Sweden [574] +3
7. Chile [553] +15 slowing down
8. USA [533] +21 rate increase remains elevated. 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [523] +32 accelerating again. At this rate Brazil will surpass USA in Covid death rate by next week
10. France [467] +2
11. Mexico [453] +30
12. Panama [423] +29
13. Bolivia [362] Joins the list a little earlier than expect
14. Netherlands [361] +1
15. Ireland [359] +0



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 8/27/20
1. Belgium [852] -8 appears to be a correction of date
2. Peru [851] +39 still darn high, soon to reach #1 in the world [will the US News Networks care about Peru?] Stay Tuned this week.
3. Spain [620] +4
4. UK [610]  +1 Boris is getting it.
5. Italy [587] +1
6. Chile [578] +25 accelerating again
7. Sweden [575] +1 only
8. USA [555] +22 with 1K deaths per day or so
9. Brazil [555] +32 "Dead Heat" with the USA (I know, awful morbid humor). Brazil may eventually surpass USA for total deaths, believe it or not.
10. Mexico [481] +28
11. France [468] +1
12. Panama [447] +24
13. Bolivia [404] +44, continues to rise fast
14. Netherlands [363] +2
15. Ecuador [362] Rejoins the fray

*Wow Brazil and the USA. Just... wow.
**Columbia is the only other country challenging the top 15 as Ireland has moved on.
***Nice to see the European uptick last week was just that.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 15 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/3/20

1. Peru [884] +34 -takes over the 1st spot
2. Belgium [853] +1
3. Spain [625] +5
4. UK [611]  +1
5. Chile [597] +19
6. Italy [587] +0
7. Brazil [583] +33  *jumped two spots
8. Sweden [577] +2
9. USA [574] +19 *a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
10. Mexico [510] +29
11. France [470] +2
12. Panama [469] +22
13. Bolivia [445] +41
14. Columbia [399] -officially joins the top 15
15. Ecuador [376] +14

*Netherlands has dropped off the list. Brazil is a train wreck. USA is a train wreck. Trends suggest that both Brazil and USA will be in the top 5 of deaths per capita due to Covid in the next month or so.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250] -
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.

Can you start rolling off some of the earlier dates?  Maybe make it a 2-3 month update as opposed to the 'wall of text'?  These posts are full of facts and figures that are repeated and readily available in your earlier posts.  Just an idea.  Thanks otherwise for the interesting update.

[Abe]

Here are the latest graphs per state and nation-wide.

A few states in the Midwest are having an uptick in cases: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North and South Dakota. These have not translated into deaths yet, and we can expect a lower rate compared to the spring in these states too.

The rest of the country is stable to decreasing. States that had high case burdens in July (CA, TX, FL, AZ) are seeing declines in cases and deaths.

These fluctuations across the country in outbreaks show that it'll be heard to tamp things down permanently. We're playing whack-a-mole to some extent.

There's a preliminary study from Germany that showed in two cities that the number of cases dropped significantly after lockdown, but more so from mandatory masking, and remained very low even as lockdowns were eventually lifted: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.02.20187021v1.full.pdf

Regarding vaccines, they remain in trials and no preliminary data has been released yet.

[deborah]

Can you start rolling off some of the earlier dates?  Maybe make it a 2-3 month update as opposed to the 'wall of text'?  These posts are full of facts and figures that are repeated and readily available in your earlier posts.  Just an idea.  Thanks otherwise for the interesting update.

I actually really like the wall of text.

[Glenstache]

anyone know how much of the late peak in SD is due to Sturgis? I read a news article about the first death linked back to the gathering, but have not seen any systematic analysis. Much of the US response feels like watching a train wreck in slow motion. You don't want to see it, but can't look away.

[JGS1980]

anyone know how much of the late peak in SD is due to Sturgis? I read a news article about the first death linked back to the gathering, but have not seen any systematic analysis. Much of the US response feels like watching a train wreck in slow motion. You don't want to see it, but can't look away.

I was about to mention Sturgiss when you posted.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sturgis,+SD+57785/@43.6388431,-100.4024033,5.75z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x532d5b912e3b4203:0x2474459a3442ef6f!8m2!3d44.4097069!4d-103.5090786?hl=en

This is a google maps projection. The pin is on Sturgiss in SW South Dakota. Note the boom in Covid19 in states adjacent to S. Dakota and on the main highways headed East and South from there (N and S Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois. You can be near certain that Montana, Nebraska, Kentucky, Oklahoma numbers will rise soon as well. 400,000 mostly white men >50 years old who cared more about themselves than their communities. I also read somewhere that 57% of US counties were represented at Sturgiss (via phone tracking data).

What a cluster.