Coronavirus Weekly Update

[JGS1980]

I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

This is just about our % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.

I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

[JGS1980]

I realize that these results will be skewed by under-reporting of deaths in heavily impacted areas as well as in 3rd world countries where testing isn't even available. This is an imperfect update, but it's all we've got in data right now.

US numbers will also be relatively high until the pandemic wave really hits Russia, Africa, South America. That being said, our medical facilities, medical personnel, and ICU capabilities are actually fairly stout, so we should do relatively better from a death rate point of view.

Ultimately, we won't know for sure which countries fared the worst until year on year mortality data is assessed AFTER the pandemic is over.

USA had 2,839,205 deaths in 2018 per the CDC. If 2020 deaths end up >500K higher despite having 150K confirmed Covid19 deaths, that will be very revealing.

[DarkandStormy]

1m cases worldwide.

235k+ confirmed in U.S.  That's more than #2 and #3 countries (Italy and Spain)…*combined.*

I'm tired of winning.

[deborah]

There should be a lower overall death rate this year. If everyone is travelling less, there won’t be as many deaths on the roads. If everyone is playing less sport there won’t be the sports injuries that there were. If people aren’t having drunken parties there won’t be as many deaths. If people are self distancing, there won’t be as many deaths from other diseases where contact causes infection.

[JGS1980]

There should be a lower overall death rate this year. If everyone is travelling less, there won’t be as many deaths on the roads. If everyone is playing less sport there won’t be the sports injuries that there were. If people aren’t having drunken parties there won’t be as many deaths. If people are self distancing, there won’t be as many deaths from other diseases where contact causes infection.

There were 169,936 accidental deaths in the USA in 2017. If we generously cut this number in half, that could potentially cut expected deaths by 85,000 in 2020. Unfortunately, I anticipate that the other top 10 Leading Causes of Death will all increase significantly due to Covid19 or due to downstream effects of hospital bed availability concerns. Maybe suicides will decrease as well (as has been shown in the past).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

I sincerely hope you are right Deborah. Let's look back at this thread one day.

JGS

[maizefolk]

I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.

On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.

[deborah]

Sorry, I wasn't clear - when I said overall death rate, I meant everything that's normal - excluding Covid-19 - and was responding to...

USA had 2,839,205 deaths in 2018 per the CDC. If 2020 deaths end up >500K higher despite having 150K confirmed Covid19 deaths, that will be very revealing.

[JGS1980]

I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

This is just about our % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.

I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

As of 4/9/20, USA now has 16129 deaths as compared to 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

Another way to look at this is that 1940 people died yesterday from Coronavirus, making it the #1 cause of death right now in the USA. Ahead of heart disease and cancer. Also, lots of news reports about sudden "cardiac arrest" in NYC and New Orleans that are occuring at 5-6 times the normal rate. All very discouraging overall. That being said, with our imperfect data, the curve is flattening faster than I would have predicted 2 weeks ago, so I'll take it.

[ketchup]

I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

This is just about our % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.

I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

As of 4/9/20, USA now has 16129 deaths as compared to 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

Another way to look at this is that 1940 people died yesterday from Coronavirus, making it the #1 cause of death right now in the USA. Ahead of heart disease and cancer. Also, lots of news reports about sudden "cardiac arrest" in NYC and New Orleans that are occuring at 5-6 times the normal rate. All very discouraging overall. That being said, with our imperfect data, the curve is flattening faster than I would have predicted 2 weeks ago, so I'll take it.

I thought this too, but somewhat alarmingly, it seems like the US is just at peak testing capacity: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fxuzm2/coronavirus_dr_fauci_says_us_may_begin_to_reopen/fmwuy1u/

The plateau in new cases per day (around 30,000) seems to be limited by how many tests are performed.

Simply put, if tests are limited to 150,000 with 20% positives a plateau is hit at 30,000 new cases a day.

Below I've shown how this tracks with the last 10 days of US historical data on testing from https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

I calculated the postives percentage as the most recent Positive / Total Tests (423,164 / 2,195,771 = 19.3%).

Date     Positive  Negative    Total Tests  New Tests  New Cases  New Tests x 19.3%
------   --------  ---------   -----------  ---------  ---------  -----------------
08 Apr   423,164   1,772,607   2,195,771    141,309    30,570     27,272
07 Apr   392,594   1,661,868   2,054,462    146,105    31,263     28,198
06 Apr   361,331   1,547,026   1,908,357    146,325    29,023     28,240
05 Apr   332,308   1,429,724   1,762,032    137,685    26,553     26,573
04 Apr   305,755   1,318,592   1,624,347    227,485    33,767     43,904
03 Apr   271,988   1,124,874   1,396,862    129,114    32,889     24,919
02 Apr   239,099   1,028,649   1,267,748    117,742    28,283     22,724
01 Apr   210,816     939,190   1,150,006    101,122    26,133     19,516
31 Mar   184,683     864,201   1,048,884    104,030    24,153     20,077
30 Mar   160,530     784,324     944,854    113,503    21,469     21,906   

This highlights the importance of widespread, large-scale testing. Without it:

    New cases appear to plateau leading to a false sense of security

    Deaths are undercounted due to undiagnosed cases

    Projection models are less accurate (garbage in garbage out)

So basically, it might be flattening, but we still don't really know yet.  Not enough data.

[JGS1980]

Agree with you Ketchup.  Number of tests is very important to catch the True number of CV cases. That's why I believe low resource countries like Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, etc... will have a very hard time controlling this virus.  I also believe that a lot of the less socioeconomically developed states in USA will also suffer from this problem.

The true number of deaths will only come out with long term mortality data spikes shown retroactively in a couple years.

[js82]

I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.

On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.

The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up.  A lot.  While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510

[Kris]

I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.

On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.

The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up.  A lot.  While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510

My husband told me that he read a report yesterday saying that in our metro area, deaths from car accidents are twice as high as normal. Speculation is that there are fewer people on the highways/freeways, so more dumbshits out there treating them like a race car track.

Sigh...

[DarkandStormy]

I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.

On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.

The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up.  A lot.  While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510

My husband told me that he read a report yesterday saying that in our metro area, deaths from car accidents are twice as high as normal. Speculation is that there are fewer people on the highways/freeways, so more dumbshits out there treating them like a race car track.

Sigh...

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-cuts-car-crashes-but-what-about-crash-rates/

Raw totals are down, but *rates* are up.

[OtherJen]

This is concerning: Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll

[Kris]

I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.

On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.

The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up.  A lot.  While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510

My husband told me that he read a report yesterday saying that in our metro area, deaths from car accidents are twice as high as normal. Speculation is that there are fewer people on the highways/freeways, so more dumbshits out there treating them like a race car track.

Sigh...

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-cuts-car-crashes-but-what-about-crash-rates/

Raw totals are down, but *rates* are up.

Aha, thanks for that article.

So, in Minnesota, where I live, both car crashes and crash fatalities have more than doubled since the virus began to accelerate in the state.

24 crashes and 28 road deaths in Minnesota between March 16 and April 7 this year, compared to 12 crashes and 13 deaths the year prior.

The link they give for MN is likely the article my husband read yesterday.

https://kstp.com/traffic/fatal-crashes-spike-during-stay-at-home-order-on-minnesota-roadways-april-8-2020/5696384/

[wenchsenior]

I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.

On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.

The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up.  A lot.  While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510

Ugh.  I was just saying in another thread, I'm SO happy that I stopped my decades long cocktail hour habit last year, b/c my drinking would almost certainly be escalating now if I hadn't done that.  It would be so easy to justify it (stress, boredom, no need to drive into work the next day, or whatever stupid reason our reptile brains generate).  But I hadn't even thought about the consequences of the few people who are still driving drinking more....

[JGS1980]

I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.

On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.

The wild card in all this: strong evidence that drinking is up.  A lot.  While accidents may be down since people aren't drinking and driving, this isn't a good thing for long-term health outcomes - particularly if some fraction of people don't revert to drinking less after social distancing restrictions are lifted.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-alcohol-sales-increase-55-percent-one-week-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-1495510

My husband told me that he read a report yesterday saying that in our metro area, deaths from car accidents are twice as high as normal. Speculation is that there are fewer people on the highways/freeways, so more dumbshits out there treating them like a race car track.

Sigh...

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-cuts-car-crashes-but-what-about-crash-rates/

Raw totals are down, but *rates* are up.

Aha, thanks for that article.

So, in Minnesota, where I live, both car crashes and crash fatalities have more than doubled since the virus began to accelerate in the state.

24 crashes and 28 road deaths in Minnesota between March 16 and April 7 this year, compared to 12 crashes and 13 deaths the year prior.

The link they give for MN is likely the article my husband read yesterday.

https://kstp.com/traffic/fatal-crashes-spike-during-stay-at-home-order-on-minnesota-roadways-april-8-2020/5696384/

I guess one more reason to stay safe at home...

[gaja]

I agree, accidental deaths are likely to decline with everyone home, but that's likely to be cancelled out by increased deaths from heart disease and cancer (top two killers in the USA on an annual basis) because of lower quality/quantity healthcare because our hospitals will be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases and supply chains for essential medications may be disrupted.

On the plus side, apparently violent crime is declining as well.

Doctors and crisis center people are very worried in Norway because they are seeing so few battered women and children. With increased alcohol consumption and everybody locked indoors, there is no way there is less abuse happening.

[OtherJen]

I am not religious but am culturally Catholic and always watch the Christmas and Easter Vigil masses from the Vatican. This one is hard to watch because St. Peter's is almost empty (whereas it's usually wall-to-wall people and full of music). It's a really stark reminder of how much things have changed worldwide in less than 4 months. It's really sobering and a bit heart-breaking.

[rob in cal]

  Either there is serious undercounting going on, or something really positive has been going on in Texas, California and Florida in terms of so much fewer deaths per capita than New York.  with every passing day I believe things are looking toward the positive side in terms of overall deaths from the virus.

[Dancin'Dog]

Seems the US has reached the highest death toll of any country yet. 


I can't imagine how bad this could have been if we didn't have the Trump.  Maybe we'll get lucky and Russia will help him win again in November. 

[HBFIRE]

So basically, it might be flattening, but we still don't really know yet.  Not enough data.

Confirmed case data is largely a function of testing volume.  Hence this data is not very useful.  Data points that are better for tracking curve trends are death rate, hospitalization rate, and ICU rate. 

[JGS1980]

I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

This is just about our % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.

I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

As of 4/9/20, USA now has 16129 deaths as compared to 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

Another way to look at this is that 1940 people died yesterday from Coronavirus, making it the #1 cause of death right now in the USA. Ahead of heart disease and cancer. Also, lots of news reports about sudden "cardiac arrest" in NYC and New Orleans that are occuring at 5-6 times the normal rate. All very discouraging overall. That being said, with our imperfect data, the curve is flattening faster than I would have predicted 2 weeks ago, so I'll take it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 4/16/20, USA now has 32826 deaths [doubled in the last week] as compared to 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

[Just Joe]

And the numbers are still likely higher here in the USA because testing is limited - right?

[JGS1980]

Some municipalities like New York City have adjusted their numbers to reflect the increased number of home deaths, but a lot of other cities and states have not done so.  No idea if they will do so in the future.

[stoaX]

I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

This is just about our % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.

I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

As of 4/9/20, USA now has 16129 deaths as compared to 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

Another way to look at this is that 1940 people died yesterday from Coronavirus, making it the #1 cause of death right now in the USA. Ahead of heart disease and cancer. Also, lots of news reports about sudden "cardiac arrest" in NYC and New Orleans that are occuring at 5-6 times the normal rate. All very discouraging overall. That being said, with our imperfect data, the curve is flattening faster than I would have predicted 2 weeks ago, so I'll take it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 4/16/20, USA now has 32826 deaths [doubled in the last week] as compared to 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

And yet the mortality analyses on the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center website shows the USA is doing better on that measure than Belgium, the UK, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Spain.   Other countries, notably Germany and Canada, look like they are doing better.

[JGS1980]

And yet the mortality analyses on the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center website shows the USA is doing better on that measure than Belgium, the UK, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Spain.   Other countries, notably Germany and Canada, look like they are doing better.
[/quote]

What specific mortality analyses are you referring to?

Case Fatality? Deaths per Capita?

[stoaX]

And yet the mortality analyses on the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center website shows the USA is doing better on that measure than Belgium, the UK, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Spain.   Other countries, notably Germany and Canada, look like they are doing better.

What specific mortality analyses are you referring to?

Case Fatality? Deaths per Capita?
[/quote]

I was looking at case fatality.  The column right next to it, is the deaths per capita and the same holds true with that stat as well.

[JGS1980]

And yet the mortality analyses on the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center website shows the USA is doing better on that measure than Belgium, the UK, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Spain.   Other countries, notably Germany and Canada, look like they are doing better.

What specific mortality analyses are you referring to?

Case Fatality? Deaths per Capita?

I was looking at case fatality.  The column right next to it, is the deaths per capita and the same holds true with that stat as well.
[/quote]

So the case fatality data is actually not that bad (3-10% CF rate in most of the US) because our medical systems has not completely been overwhelmed outside of NYC, New Orleans, and New Jersey (yet).

The Per Capita Death Rate will continue to climb as the virus runs its complete 7 day to 30 day course through the entire US population. It's still spreading right now so this rate will only grow over time.

per this site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries USA is now 14th out of all the worlds in deaths per capita at 128/1 Million [we were in the 70's last week]. Italy, Spain, and Belgium (the current leaders) are all over 400 deaths/1 Million people.

[JGS1980]

I posted my first update 1 week ago on the Covid Contrarian thread (that has since been locked). I will continue updates in this dedicated thread. Mostly to inform everyone, but also to keep a record over time.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 3/26/20, USA now has 1070 deaths compared to 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

This is just about our % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

From now on, we will now see if we are dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower percentage would indicate the opposite.

I will try to update this on a weekly basis using the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center data.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 4/2/20, USA now has 5148 deaths compared to 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

As of 4/9/20, USA now has 16129 deaths as compared to 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

Another way to look at this is that 1940 people died yesterday from Coronavirus, making it the #1 cause of death right now in the USA. Ahead of heart disease and cancer. Also, lots of news reports about sudden "cardiac arrest" in NYC and New Orleans that are occuring at 5-6 times the normal rate. All very discouraging overall. That being said, with our imperfect data, the curve is flattening faster than I would have predicted 2 weeks ago, so I'll take it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of 4/16/20, USA now has 32826 deaths [doubled in the last week] as compared to 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

As of 4/23/20, USA now has 46851 deaths as compared to 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27% of worldwide coronavirus deaths.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

[JGS1980]

Changed the format to make it more readable:

This data collection serves to determine if the US population is dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower than % population percentage would indicate the opposite.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46% of worldwide CV deaths
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's another way at looking at the data:

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million]
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[maizefolk]

Here's another way at looking at the data:

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million]
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [540]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And for context: China is currently at 3 deaths per million (based on info from the same source).

[JGS1980]

Here's another way at looking at the data:

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million]
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And for context: China is currently at 3 deaths per million (based on info from the same source).

I'm not so sure how accurate China data is in regards to this virus, but, if you were to separate the City of Wuhan province from the rest of the country [super intense lockdown], where there were 3212 deaths out of a population of 11.08 million, than that would give them a 289 deaths/million rate. So 5th place.

For another comparison, New York State has 20792 deaths, 19.45 Million people, so 1060 deaths/million (1st place). And this includes the rest of the state, not just NYC.

[DaMa]

ptf

[maizefolk]

In NYC proper the death rate is high enough that we can start using a different type of statistics to talk about it. One out of every eight hundred people in New York City has already died from the coronavirus (1,257 deaths per million).

At this point almost everyone in NYC either knows someone who has already died from it, or knows someone who knows someone who has already died of it (two degrees of separation).

[DarkandStormy]

Here's another way at looking at the data:

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million]
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [540]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And for context: China is currently at 3 deaths per million (based on info from the same source).

Tbh, not sure why anyone is trusting #s out of China.

[stoaX]

Here's another way at looking at the data:

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million]
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [540]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And for context: China is currently at 3 deaths per million (based on info from the same source).

Tbh, not sure why anyone is trusting #s out of China.

The Economist has published articles about the unreliability of stats from China in issues from 1/26/17, 6/15/17, 7/7/18 and 4/7/2020. 

[DarkandStormy]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-hong-kong-study-says-chinas-true-case-tally-is-likely-four-times-higher-than-official-numbers-2020-04-23

China’s constantly shifting methodology for tabulating the number of cases of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 has led it to greatly understate the numbers, and the true tally may be four times the official figures, according to a new study by researchers in Hong Kong.

The study, created by academics at the Hong Kong University School of Public Health and published in the Lancet, found that more than 230,000 people were likely infected in the first wave of the outbreak, whereas official Chinese data recorded just 55,000 cases as of Feb. 20.

[JGS1980]

I would note that there is a lot of variability in Covid reporting from country to country. Even in Europe. Belgium, for example, counts ALL suspected Covid deaths. Spain only counts + Covid tests leading to death.  I would argue that Belgium is reporting the TRUE cost of this disease, and Spain would be under-reporting significantly.

3rd World Countries just don't have the infrastructure to test anyone but their sickest. Nursing Home deaths just aren't a priority when it comes to limited resources. Nytimes had an article that Ecuador death rate is 15 times more than reported.

Political considerations noted as well. I doubt dictatorial governments (Russia, Iran, China) will want to report things exactly as they are. Heck, I'm sure US state to state reporting will vary greatly. As long as there is incentive to juke the stats, then the stats will be juked [anyone ever see The Wire?].

The actual toll on society won't be out until year on year mortality data is analyzed in 2021-2022. BUT, we will just have to use what we have meanwhile.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/is-comparing-covid-19-death-rates-across-europe-helpful-

[OtherJen]

The selfishness and immaturity of some people absolutely astounds me. She sounds like a sociopath.

ReOpen NC leader says she tested positive for COVID-19

Audrey Whitlock posted to the ReOpen NC Facebook page early Sunday saying her two-week quarantine was ending. She described herself as an “an asymptomatic COVID19 positive patient.”

Whitlock is one of the administrators of the ReOpen NC Facebook page – which has helped organize two protests in downtown Raleigh calling for Gov. Roy Cooper to lift his stay-at-home order.

In Whitlock’s post, she wrote about how the restrictions put in place amid the COVID-19 pandemic are violating her First Amendment rights as well as her 5th and 14th Amendment rights.

She said she was “forced” to quarantine which violated her First Amendment rights.

[JGS1980]

This data collection serves to determine if the US population is dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower than % population percentage would indicate the opposite.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's another way at looking at the data:

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] LAST WEEK
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] THIS WEEK
1. Belgium [655]
2. Spain [525]
3. Italy [463]
4. UK [394]
5. France [369]
6. Netherlands [280]
7. Sweden [256]
8. Ireland [250]
9. Switzerland [201]
10. USA [188]

***UK with a very alarming rise in the last week. Ireland also surging. No other country even has 100 deaths/million rate

[deborah]

Note: the UK surged so much this week because they started to count people dying outside hospitals. Before this, those people haven’t been counted - including all the old people dying in nursing homes. They’ve all now been added to the stats, resulting in 40% more deaths from Covid 19 than was previously recorded. As a result, the UK is actually declining.

[JGS1980]

This data collection serves to determine if the US population is dying at a higher rate than the general worldwide population. A higher percentage would indicate we are doing a piss poor job of preventing and treating infection. A lower than % population percentage would indicate the opposite.

USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81% STILL GOING UP

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] 2 weeks ago
1. Belgium [540]
2. Spain [464]
3. Italy [415]
4. France [327]
5. UK [267]
6. Netherlands [244]
7. Sweden [237]
8. Switzerland [192]
9. Ireland [156]
10. USA [144]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] last week
1. Belgium [655]
2. Spain [525]
3. Italy [463]
4. UK [394]
5. France [369]
6. Netherlands [280]
7. Sweden [256]
8. Ireland [250]
9. Switzerland [201]
10. USA [188]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]

*USA continues to rise dramatically, and has begun the reopening process in many states already despite this fact.
**UK, Sweden, USA appears to be rising fast. Switzerland's outbreak is effectively over.
***Canada and Portugal are also now over the 100 deaths per million threshold
**** I'd be very scared if I lived in Brazil, Ecuador, or Russia right now. Their numbers suck despite (or due to) suspected underreporting, strong arm tactics, and lack of infrastructure. Apparently 3 doctors "fell out of windows" in Russia in the last month for no particular reason.

[gooki]

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]

Moving up the ladder. Will USA take the gold medal?

[marty998]

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]

Moving up the ladder. Will USA take the gold medal?

I'm actually really surprised Ireland is up so high. Notwithstanding all the links with Britain and the European Union, as an island you would expect they might have been able to close the airports and ports pretty quickly to get it under control.

I haven't sought any news as to why they have been hit as hard as they have (the news seems to be dominated overwhelmingly by the US), but I am curious about this one.

[gooki]

Once it’s being community spread closing you borders no longer has a significant impact.

[deborah]

It started with people returning from skiing in Northern Italy. No quarantine. They're part of the EU. Then they got community spread.

[deborah]

In Australia we're beginning to relax lockdown. The Prime Minister said that as herd immunity requires at least 60% of populations to have got it, no country has come anywhere near herd immunity. Let's assume that there are actually 10 times as many cases as have been reported - at that rate, the highest percentage in any country to have it are about 6%, not the 60% needed - even in places that have been devastated by it.

[penguintroopers]

Top 10 (only including countries >1 million people) with [deaths/million] as of TODAY
1. Belgium [726]
2. Spain [558]
3. Italy [491]
4. UK [443]
5. France [395]
6. Netherlands [309]
7. Sweden [301]
8. Ireland [278]
9. USA [227]
10. Switzerland [209]

Moving up the ladder. Will USA take the gold medal?

This is not the summer Olympics I was imagining.

PTF.

[GuitarStv]

The US has a coach who is really focused on making America number one.  I think you guys can do it!