I finally looked into the pensions that my partner and I are eligible for. I have intentionally ignored the value of the pensions because pensions are notoriously unreliable; my company could go out of business and government insurance is no guarantee that we'll get most or all of the money that they claim we'll get. I still consider our pensions a bonus that we can't rely on, so I've avoided learning details other than things that are important to my planning. For instance, I know how payouts are calculated, I know the early retirement rules, I know about vesting, etc. I just don't know how much we're supposed to get - at least I didn't until today.
In short, if we quit at the end of April as planned we should get enough to cover ~70% of our planned expenses starting in 22-23 years. This is a lot more than I expected! The dollar figure increases according to an inflation calculation until we start taking it, then the dollar figure freezes. That's another reason we can't count on it; inflation will eat away at the value of our pension payments. Nevertheless, if the pensions are around that plus SS will put us well over our planned expenses (starting at very roughly 140% and dropping over time). With the run-up in equities over the past 2 months we unexpectedly are now past 30x our planned spending if the ACA stays as-is. We're close to 25x if the ACA cost sharing and premium subsidies are eliminated, give or take.
I feel like this should make me feel better, but I can't help but feel like the failure modes for each are correlated. In other words, if the 4% rule fails even if we cut spending, then things are going to be so bad that our company may fail and government may have trouble funding social security. On the other hand, if the pension is around and S.S. pays out what we expect then it's likely that the 4% rule worked and we'll have way too much.
I need to get over my fear of these risks. While I haven't submitted my formal notice, I've told everyone at work my plans. I'm leaving whether I'm terrified or not. But all the back-up plans (and the above are just a few) aren't enough to make the fear subside. I am far more excited than fearful, but I'm pretty damn fearful.